27 Feb 2019-nCoV / SARS-CoV-2 / Covid-19 Diagnostic Of Pandemic

The Pandemic has started to hit California. 28 Cases total in California. I’m in “soft lockdown” (only going out if necessary) and headed for “hard lockdown” next Sunday (only going out if unavoidable in any way, and with protective gear).

THE big headline: DON’T WAIT FOR CDC TO TEST!

A CT scan is more sensitive and catches more of the cases faster. Chuck suspected cases in the CT Scan and wear PPE while doing it. THEN contact the CDC for a “confirmation” using their less sensitive test prone to more false negatives.

The RT-PCR tests are about 70% sensitivity so miss about 30% (as I understand the meaning) while the CT Scan is in the 90%+ range. AND you don’t have to wait 4 days…

Second point: The case from Solono County was transferred to Sacramento Medical Center (the teaching hospital of my Alma mater and where I have worked). She was sent intubated, so was clearly in a bad way. Only “droplet:” infection protection was requested. Test was shipped to CDC on Sunday. Results WEDNESDAY said “yes” she’s got it. THEN airborne protections were applied (as I read the story). That’s the weekend staff AND 3 shifts of weekday staff.

The news release says some staff were told to stay home and monitor their temperature out of “an abundance of caution”… more like an abundance of brown spots on underwear IMHO. Oh, and have these folks not heard about the asymptomatic spreaders? Temperature is NOT enough.

Articles I could find from that video:

https://abc7.com/health/28-current-cases-of-coronavirus-confirmed-in-calif/5971289/

The governor says there are 28 confirmed cases currently in California, but a state health official says the risk to the public remains low.

There are more than 8,400 people in the state who are being monitored in 49 different jurisdictions after arriving on flights from Asia, state health officials said.
[…]
UC Davis Health officials say the woman was transferred to their facility from another Northern California hospital on Feb. 19. They say when the patient arrived, they had already been intubated, were on a ventilator, and were given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition.

According to UC Davis, their team requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, however, since the patient did not fit the existing CDC criteria for the virus, the test was not immediately administered.

On Sunday, the CDC ordered COVID-19 testing of the patient and the patient was put airborne precautions because of concerns about their condition. On Wednesday, the CDC confirmed the patient’s test was positive.

This “Updated” version removes the statement about “abundance of caution” so I think someone got an earful…

So we’ve now got at least 2 hospital’s staff AND an ambulance crew exposed and at risk, plus their families & friends, plus whoever was standing around as they pushed the cart along.

In the next article he states over 40% got the virus IN THE HOSPITAL. So avoid hospitals…

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200226151951.htm

CT provides best diagnosis for COVID-19
Date: February 26, 2020
Source: Radiological Society of North America
Summary:
In a study of more than 1,000 patients published in the journal Radiology, chest CT outperformed lab testing in the diagnosis of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The researchers concluded that CT should be used as the primary screening tool for COVID-19.

FULL STORY
In a study of more than 1,000 patients published in the journal Radiology, chest CT outperformed lab testing in the diagnosis of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The researchers concluded that CT should be used as the primary screening tool for COVID-19.

In the absence of specific therapeutic drugs or vaccines for COVID-19, it is essential to detect the disease at an early stage and immediately isolate an infected patient from the healthy population.

According to the latest guidelines published by the Chinese government, the diagnosis of COVID-19 must be confirmed by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) or gene sequencing for respiratory or blood specimens, as the key indicator for hospitalization. However, with limitations of sample collection and transportation, as well as kit performance, the total positive rate of RT-PCR for throat swab samples has been reported to be about 30% to 60% at initial presentation.

In the current public health emergency, the low sensitivity of RT-PCR implies that a large number of COVID-19 patients won’t be identified quickly and may not receive appropriate treatment. In addition, given the highly contagious nature of the virus, they carry a risk of infecting a larger population.

“Early diagnosis of COVID-19 is crucial for disease treatment and control. Compared to RT-PCR, chest CT imaging may be a more reliable, practical and rapid method to diagnose and assess COVID-19, especially in the epidemic area,” the authors wrote.

Chest CT, a routine imaging tool for pneumonia diagnosis, is fast and relatively easy to perform. Recent research found that the sensitivity of CT for COVID-19 infection was 98% compared to RT-PCR sensitivity of 71%.

For the current study, researchers at Tongji Hospital in Wuhan, China, set out to investigate the diagnostic value and consistency of chest CT imaging in comparison to RT-PCR assay in COVID-19.

Included in the study were 1,014 patients who underwent both chest CT and RT-PCR tests between January 6 and February 6, 2020. With RT-PCR as reference standard, the performance of chest CT in diagnosing COVID-19 was assessed. For patients with multiple RT-PCR assays, the dynamic conversion of RT-PCR test results (negative to positive, and positive to negative, respectively) was also analyzed as compared with serial chest CT scans.

The results showed that 601 patients (59%) had positive RT-PCR results, and 888 (88%) had positive chest CT scans. The sensitivity of chest CT in suggesting COVID-19 was 97%, based on positive RT-PCR results. In patients with negative RT-PCR results, 75% (308 of 413 patients) had positive chest CT findings. Of these, 48% were considered as highly likely cases, with 33% as probable cases. By analysis of serial RT-PCR assays and CT scans, the interval between the initial negative to positive RT-PCR results was 4 to 8 days.

“About 81% of the patients with negative RT-PCR results but positive chest CT scans were re-classified as highly likely or probable cases with COVID-19, by the comprehensive analysis of clinical symptoms, typical CT manifestations and dynamic CT follow-ups,” the authors wrote.

Story Source:

Materials provided by Radiological Society of North America. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

Journal Reference:

Tao Ai, Zhenlu Yang, Hongyan Hou, Chenao Zhan, Chong Chen, Wenzhi Lv, Qian Tao, Ziyong Sun, Liming Xia. Correlation of Chest CT and RT-PCR Testing in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China: A Report of 1014 Cases. Radiology, 2020; 200642 DOI: 10.1148/radiol.2020200642
Cite This Page:
MLA
APA
Chicago
Radiological Society of North America. “CT provides best diagnosis for COVID-19.” ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 26 February 2020.

Not the Science Daily article he cites but similar:

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-02-ct-diagnosis-covid-.html

FEBRUARY 27, 2020

CT provides best diagnosis for COVID-19
by Radiological Society of North America

Credit: CC0 Public Domain
In a study of more than 1,000 patients published in the journal Radiology, chest CT outperformed lab testing in the diagnosis of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The researchers concluded that CT should be used as the primary screening tool for COVID-19.

In the absence of specific therapeutic drugs or vaccines for COVID-19, it is essential to detect the disease at an early stage and immediately isolate an infected patient from the healthy population.

According to the latest guidelines published by the Chinese government, the diagnosis of COVID-19 must be confirmed by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) or gene sequencing for respiratory or blood specimens, as the key indicator for hospitalization. However, with limitations of sample collection and transportation, as well as kit performance, the total positive rate of RT-PCR for throat swab samples has been reported to be about 30% to 60% at initial presentation.

In the current public health emergency, the low sensitivity of RT-PCR implies that a large number of COVID-19 patients won’t be identified quickly and may not receive appropriate treatment. In addition, given the highly contagious nature of the virus, they carry a risk of infecting a larger population.

“Early diagnosis of COVID-19 is crucial for disease treatment and control. Compared to RT-PCR, chest CT imaging may be a more reliable, practical and rapid method to diagnose and assess COVID-19, especially in the epidemic area,” the authors wrote.

Chest CT, a routine imaging tool for pneumonia diagnosis, is fast and relatively easy to perform. Recent research found that the sensitivity of CT for COVID-19 infection was 98% compared to RT-PCR sensitivity of 71%.

For the current study, researchers at Tongji Hospital in Wuhan, China, set out to investigate the diagnostic value and consistency of chest CT imaging in comparison to RT-PCR assay in COVID-19.

Included in the study were 1,014 patients who underwent both chest CT and RT-PCR tests between January 6 and February 6, 2020. With RT-PCR as reference standard, the performance of chest CT in diagnosing COVID-19 was assessed. For patients with multiple RT-PCR assays, the dynamic conversion of RT-PCR test results (negative to positive, and positive to negative, respectively) was also analyzed as compared with serial chest CT scans.

The results showed that 601 patients (59%) had positive RT-PCR results, and 888 (88%) had positive chest CT scans. The sensitivity of chest CT in suggesting COVID-19 was 97%, based on positive RT-PCR results. In patients with negative RT-PCR results, 75% (308 of 413 patients) had positive chest CT findings. Of these, 48% were considered as highly likely cases, with 33% as probable cases. By analysis of serial RT-PCR assays and CT scans, the interval between the initial negative to positive RT-PCR results was 4 to 8 days.

“About 81% of the patients with negative RT-PCR results but positive chest CT scans were re-classified as highly likely or probable cases with COVID-19, by the comprehensive analysis of clinical symptoms, typical CT manifestations and dynamic CT follow-ups,” the authors wrote.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200205084211.htm

Radiologists describe coronavirus imaging features
Date: February 5, 2020
Source: Radiological Society of North America
Summary: Researchers describe CT imaging features that aid in the early detection and diagnosis of Wuhan coronavirus.

In a special report published today in the journal Radiology, researchers describe CT imaging features that aid in the early detection and diagnosis of Wuhan coronavirus.

“Early disease recognition is important not only for prompt implementation of treatment, but also for patient isolation and effective public health surveillance, containment and response,” said the study’s lead author, Michael Chung, M.D., assistant professor in the Department of Diagnostic, Interventional and Molecular Radiology in the Mount Sinai Health System in New York, N.Y.

On December 31, 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) learned of several cases of a respiratory illness clinically resembling viral pneumonia and manifesting as fever, cough, and shortness of breath. The newly discovered virus emerging from Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China, has been temporarily named “novel coronavirus” (2019-nCoV). This new coronavirus belongs to a family of viruses that include Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS).

The outbreak is escalating quickly, with thousands of confirmed 2019-nCoV cases reported globally. On January 30, the U.S. reported the first confirmed instance of person-to-person spread of the virus.

In this retrospective case series, Dr. Chung and colleagues set out to characterize the key chest CT imaging findings in a group of patients infected with 2019-nCoV in China with the goal of familiarizing radiologists and clinical teams with the imaging manifestations of this new outbreak.

From January 18, 2020, until January 27, 2020, 21 patients admitted to three hospitals in three provinces in China with confirmed 2019-nCoV infection underwent chest CT. The 21 patients consisted of 13 men and 8 women ranging in age from 29 to 77 years old, with a mean age of 51.2 years. All patients were confirmed positive for infection via laboratory testing of respiratory secretions.

For each of the 21 patients, the initial CT scan was evaluated for the following characteristics: (1) presence of ground-glass opacities, (2) presence of consolidation, (3) number of lobes affected by ground-glass or consolidative opacities, (4) degree of lobe involvement in addition to overall lung “total severity score,” (5) presence of nodules, (6) presence of a pleural effusion, (7) presence of thoracic lymphadenopathy (lymph nodes of abnormal size or morphology), and (8) presence of underlying lung disease such as emphysema or fibrosis. Any other thoracic abnormalities were also noted.

The analysis showed that 2019-nCoV typically manifests on CT with bilateral ground-glass and consolidative pulmonary opacities. Nodular opacities, crazy-paving pattern, and a peripheral distribution of disease may be additional features helpful in early diagnosis. The researchers also noted that lung cavitation, discrete pulmonary nodules, pleural effusions and lymphadenopathy are characteristically absent in cases of 2019-nCoV.

Follow-up imaging in seven of eight patients showed mild or moderate progression of disease as manifested by increasing extent and density of airspace opacities.

Dr. Chung cautioned that absence of abnormal CT findings upon initial examination does not rule out the presence of 2019-nCoV.

“Our patient population is unique from other published series on the Wuhan coronavirus in that three of our patients had normal initial chest CTs,” he said. “One of these patients progressed three days later and developed a solitary nodular ground-glass lesion in the right lower lobe, indicating this pattern may represent the very first radiologically visible manifestation of disease in some patients infected with Wuhan coronavirus.”

He added that a second patient had a normal follow-up chest CT four days after her initial normal imaging exam.

“This suggests that chest CT lacks complete sensitivity and does not have a perfect negative predictive value,” Dr. Chung said. “We can’t rely on CT alone to fully exclude presence of the virus.”

This finding may be related to the fact that infection with 2019-nCoV is characterized by an incubation period of several days, and there may be a phase where viral infection manifests with symptoms prior to visible abnormalities on CT.

The researchers note that further study is required to understand how patients fare after treatment but suggest that experience and imaging findings from MERS and SARS epidemics might be helpful in managing the current outbreak.

Dr Chung’s colleagues at Mount Sinai include cardiothoracic radiologist Adam Bernheim, M.D., and Ph.D. candidate Xueyan Mei. Colleagues in China, including Hong Shan, M.D., from Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Biomedical Imaging, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University in Zhuhai (Guangdong Province) were also instrumental in this work.

Story Source:

Materials provided by Radiological Society of North America. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

Journal References:

Michael Chung, Adam Bernheim, Xueyan Mei, Ning Zhang, Mingqian Huang, Xianjian Zeng, Jiufa Cui, Wenjian Xu, Yang Yang, Zahi Fayad, Adam Jacobi, Kunwei Li, Shaolin Li, Hong Shan. CT Imaging Features of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Radiology, 2020; 200230 DOI: 10.1148/radiol.2020200230
Jeffrey P. Kanne. Chest CT Findings in 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infections from Wuhan, China: Key Points for the Radiologist. Radiology, 2020; 200241 DOI: 10.1148/radiol.2020200241

To see the prior postings, back up one here:

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/02/23/22-feb-2019-ncov-sars-cov-2-covid-19-corona-virus-pandemic/

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in Covid, Emergency Preparation and Risks, News Related, Science Bits and tagged , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

97 Responses to 27 Feb 2019-nCoV / SARS-CoV-2 / Covid-19 Diagnostic Of Pandemic

  1. billinoz says:

    Thanks for the ’round up’ of the situation in the USA EM.
    Looks like CT scan is the diagnostic way forward that works until they get the RT PCR test sensitive and accurate.

    Meanwhile in Italy the pope is sick in Rome.
    He meets hundreds of people every day.
    And now he has a flu.
    Is it COVID 19 disease ?
    No one is sure.
    But there is a popular idea among some Catholics
    That miracles can happen through him.
    So there is an incentive for close contact
    By sick Catholics seeking a miracle.

    https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-news:-catholic-pope-francis-sick,-last-seen-coughing-and-having-a-runny-nose-as-italy-is-facing-a-coronavirus-crisis

  2. Gail Combs says:

    E.M. I pass a snippet of your essay along with the URL. (great essay as usual)

    I expect you will have several new readers. At least I hope so. Many people are saying, Oh it is only the flu… 🙄

    It is tough to walk a line between blase and fear monger. At my age with Asthma I am going to side with caution. I sure wish the CDC and hospitals would!

  3. David A says:

    This…”The analysis showed that 2019-nCoV typically manifests on CT with bilateral ground-glass and consolidative pulmonary opacities. Nodular opacities, crazy-paving pattern, and a peripheral distribution of disease may be additional features helpful in early diagnosis. The researchers also noted that lung cavitation, discrete pulmonary nodules, pleural effusions and lymphadenopathy are characteristically absent in cases of 2019-nCoV.”
    known for some time! Yet our CDC ignored it??

  4. jim2 says:

    California will be a good test case to see if temperature matters WRT the spread. It is in the 70’s there from what I can tell from weather maps. Don’t know the variation though.

    If higher temps hamper the virus, that would be a good thing. Any thoughts?

  5. David A says:

    Jim, unfortunately this is atypical this time of year. T is dropping in the next couple of days.

  6. Gail Combs says:

    In honor of the poor dog…

  7. Gail Combs says:

    More spread reported by a commenter…
    Things are not looking good in Italy, and a couple of folks returning from Milan brought the virus with them, to Göppingen (not very far from us) and Uni Tübingen, where they had a conference the same day my wife and son were there for a checkup for him.

    So it is now in Germany.

  8. ossqss says:

    So the trend in closed cases continues, FWIW, but it is down to a 7% level of bad outcome now. Seems to be dropping a point a day or so lately. Of course it simply could be tortured statistics in the end. Never the less, we still have a bit of good news, if there really is any, with respect to 82% of the infected only experience mild symptoms.

    The largest % by far for those at highest risk of bad outcome still remains in the older to elderly population. Under 50 it is very low based on data updated on the 23rd per the applicable page in the below site. I still suspect we will have much more clarity overall through reanalysis when all is said and done.

    AGE
    DEATH RATE*
    80+ years old
    14.8%
    70-79 years old
    8.0%
    60-69 years old
    3.6%
    50-59 years old
    1.3%
    40-49 years old
    0.4%
    30-39 years old
    0.2%
    20-29 years old
    0.2%
    10-19 years old
    0.2%
    0-9 years old
    no fatalities

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

  9. Gail Combs says:

    Newer comment from the same commenter
    I’ve been following Daughn’s threads and Chiefio’s site (not sure if I want to test my teeth on hardtack, though). He’s from near my old stomping grounds, so it’s interesting to read. Sad what’s happened to the SF Bay Area, Silly Valley, and Kalifornistan.

    The worst thing (so far) about the potential outbreak in Tübingen is that it was a medical conference, with a lot of senior doctors and their staffs. And, Tübingen is a major University Town… sigh…

    So it looks like that conference could be a real OH SHIFF!

  10. Gail Combs says:

    PUBLISHED MON, FEB 3 202012:14

    “About 25% of them have very serious disease, requiring relatively intensive or really intensive care,” NIH’s Dr. Anthony Fauci told CNBC on Monday.

    China’s National Health Commission said the confirmed coronavirus cases in China increased to 17,205. The death toll rose to 361 there.

    “There are probably a lot more people who were infected in China who have not been really counted,” Fauci said. “The number is probably much larger.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/nih-dr-anthony-fauci-25percent-of-china-coronavirus-cases-very-serious.html

    At this point I really do not trust the data out of China or the UN.

    WIKI — Anthony Stephen “Tony” Fauci is an American immunologist who has made substantial contributions to HIV/AIDS research and other immunodeficiencies, both as a scientist and as the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

  11. tom0mason says:

    Dr. John Campbell latest says those videos of Chinese people being forcibly removed were of people that broke the quarantine restrictions. The problems in Iran make it look as if it will be the next place with major outbreaks. Italian cruise ship can’t find a place to dock in the Caribbean or Mexico …

  12. E.M.Smith says:

    As the Grand PooBah of Iran has announced this is an American plot to disrupt their election, and clearly it circulated in the goverment at high levels, too: I think Iran will be a test case of zero containment. I.E. about 10% will die, and up to 20% if their medical system collapses.

  13. Gail Combs says:

    Iran is already having major problems. When there were only two deaths confirmed to be from the virus a doctor said he had 20 who were ‘clinically diagnosed’ die in his hospital and was waiting for lab results.
    ….

    The problem is we are getting Politicial Bull Schiff and not real information.

  14. Gail Combs says:

    E.M. I think for Iran you are probably looking at closer to the 20% because their medical staff is probably already exposed given what that one doctor said.

  15. E.M.Smith says:

    Also the grand PooBah had orders issued that medical staff could NOT use bunny suits in any province where the political class said there were no cases. Meaning most likely all their medical staff exposed. Figure about 70% of them will go offline with sickness or become superspreaders.

    One can only hope it takes out the top political layer that made those horrible rulings.

  16. Steven Fraser says:

    EM: CT tests are fast, provided that there is a Radiologist on hand to read the study. I think with a little workflow optimization, a team could shoot and read 4 studies an hour, and may 6 in the same period with a second reading station and Radiologist. One of the benefits of the CT is that the studies can be striped to disk, and saved a long time for training. A down side is that a CT is a lot of radiation.

    Now that they know what to look for, perhaps they could match with std chest xrays… which are far fewer rems…

    Stay safe.

  17. M Simon says:

    Some real information for the USA. From the other thread.

    Tonight on the nightly news “no need to panic” was emphasized. And then this bombshell.

    Prep for two weeks no food or medicine.

  18. Gail Combs says:

    YUP, Iran is a dumpster fire.

    Delegation from Austria visited Iran February 22nd and contracted Covid19.
    Darn stuff really spreads doesn’t it.

  19. M Simon says:

    A down side is that a CT is a lot of radiation.

    I always ask how many Rem I’m getting. They never know.

    So I looked it up. CT scan – 1.1 REM (I’m old school). NorthWestern hospital in Chicago bungled one test. Needed for a heart valve replacement. So I needed a second. I’m going to avoid radiation for a while.

  20. Gail Combs says:

    these are interesting…

    These are the screenshots:

    Someone might want to archive them (I do not know how)

  21. Annie says:

    I’ve taken screenshots anyway. Poor people; it’s horrible.

  22. ossqss says:

    I have been watching human behavior with respect to the news. Italy, Iran and others. Saw a “clear the shelves” episode in Hawaii today and a similar thing happen in SC on masks. We have been discussing preparedness for any eventuality related to this virus on this site for over a month I think. I am use to such with our Hurricane preparedness procedures here in Florida and always try to do things well in advance of a threat.

    Where Yat? Just sayin,,,,,

    Of course, Youtube doesn’t falter with obscure songs when you look. I kinda hate to like it.

  23. E.M.Smith says:

    Watching S.Korean update on Arirang: now over 2000 csses st 2022 confirmed. Testing something like 28,000 across Kirea.

    They are aggressively getting on top of it, but man this is blowing up fast.

    Their update is extraordinarily complete and precise. We ought to outsource our CDC to them… actually lists number of masks and full body protection kits shipped to Daegu.

    http://www.arirang.com/index.asp

  24. M Simon says:

    Gail Combs says:
    28 February 2020 at 3:41 am

    Archiving. – Put it in an e-mail and send it to yourself. Or use one of the free cloud services.

    I use ==> http://www.mediafire.com/

  25. E.M.Smith says:

    OMG! S. Korea has set up a drive thru Covid test center. Nearly instant testing done while you stay in your car. We are so outclassed.

  26. M Simon says:

    Another downside of CT scans. – You have to do extensive clean up after each scan of suspected infected. Wipe down the whole machine? By people in biohazard gear?

  27. M Simon says:

    EM,

    Could it be that South Korea focuses on results while Americans focus on politics?

    VP Mike Pence Leads a Coronavirus Taskforce Meeting…
    Posted on February 27, 2020 by sundance

    The media is attempting to initiate panic about the Coronavirus in 2020 the same way the media attempted to manufacture panic about an upcoming U.S. recession in 2019.
    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/02/27/vp-mike-pence-leads-a-coronavirus-taskforce-meeting/

    Implying that since there was no recession Corona-19 will be a big nothing.

    Except that the national media is minimizing the cost of a lack of testing kits so far. They are in on minimizing the danger.

  28. Rienk says:

    @ Gail Combs

    Getting this one is fairly easy. Works via the DOI (digital object identifier), in this case its:
    10.1016/S2214-109x(20)30065-6
    Put that in ddg.gg and you’ll get it with retracted in red across it. If that doesn’t work go to
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sci-Hub
    and read.

    Rienk

  29. jim2 says:

    For M. Simon –
    Doses in Our Daily Lives
    Radiation Doses in Perspective (in millirem)
    View Larger Image

    On average, Americans receive a radiation dose of about 0.62 rem (620 millirem) each year. Half of this dose comes from natural background radiation. Most of this background exposure comes from radon in the air, with smaller amounts from cosmic rays and the Earth itself. (The chart to the right shows these radiation doses in perspective.) The other half (0.31 rem or 310 mrem) comes from man-made sources of radiation, including medical, commercial, and industrial sources. In general, a yearly dose of 620 millirem from all radiation sources has not been shown to cause humans any harm.

    https://www.nrc.gov/about-nrc/radiation/around-us/doses-daily-lives.html

  30. jim2 says:

    On CBS just a while ago (Friday morning) had on a Dr. He said there WILL be quarantines in the US and for people to stock up at least 2 weeks of food. He said children will be kept home, so prepare for that and some might have to do school remotely.

    So, the rest of the country is catching up. Good job, EMS.

  31. philjourdan says:

    @ossqss says:
    28 February 2020 at 1:53 am

    Thanks for the breakdown. That is half the way to finding out who is dying. The other half is cross matching fatalities with existing medical conditions (if any) to see if those younger than say 50, are at a heightened risk, or if those succumbing to it have other issues.

  32. cdquarles says:

    @Simon, the only part of a CT machine, at least the ones I’ve seen, where there is patient contact is the table. There is a fair amount of space between the ring and the table. That said, the room is *cold* so you would need to somewhat isolate patients. Put *them* in a paper/plastic disposable suit, too. Put UV lights outside the scan room. The operator is in a separate room. Spray down the ring and mop it. They already so spray down the table and wipe it. Every so often housekeeping comes in to clean the room anyway.

  33. Nancy & John Hultquist says:

    An Age-Death Rate table (ossqss @ 1:53 included one) for this, or any other disease or reason, ought to show a higher rate for elderly than for the 20 to 50 age cohorts. And ‘phil’ has a point.
    In the USA life expectancy is about 78, but having made it to 78 a person can be expected to live another 9 years. But many over 80 will die every year from conditions that pre-exist (cancer, heart, falling, …).
    Long term smokers are at great risk as they age – becoming less of an issue in the USA – but elsewhere damaged lungs are common.

    Somewhat related:
    Age of the would-be POTUS (Sanders/79, Bloomberg/78, Biden/78, Trump/74, Warren/71, ) on inauguration day 2021. Who will last for all 4 years? If one thinks of 8 years – there is a very good chance that one or more of the old white guys won’t make it. Expect a young running mate.

  34. David A says:

    @M.Simon, I think the minimizing tune of the CDC and WHO, with regard to the U.S. is and will put amore urgent tone on this.

    I agree, the President soft sold this big time. Who from the healthcare world related this virus to the common flu?

  35. David A says:

    Rather who from the healthcare world related this virus to the common flu to POTUS, that he referenced several times and said he was surprised by how many die from the flu each year.

  36. M Simon says:

    jim2 says:
    28 February 2020 at 1:19 pm

    I’m a former naval nuke and a believer in radiation hormesis. But that only gores so far. 2.2 REM in less than a month is a fairly significant dose. It would have disqualified me for 3 months (1.5 REM was the limit IIRC) But don’t quote me. It has been over 50 years.

  37. M Simon says:

    cdquarles says:
    28 February 2020 at 3:06 pm

    The quarters are tight within a CT machine. You are asked about claustrophobia before they let you in.

    Even a sneeze in a mask would be a problem. And on your back with pneumonia?

    And if airborne virus from breathing is a problem?

  38. Ossqss says:

    @philjourdan says:
    28 February 2020 at 2:07 pm
    Thanks for the breakdown. That is half the way to finding out who is dying. The other half is cross matching fatalities with existing medical conditions (if any) to see if those younger than say 50, are at a heightened risk, or if those succumbing to it have other issues.”

    This was also in the site. Still lacks age/condition association and has not been updated for a week or so.

    PRE-EXISTING CONDITION
    DEATH RATE*
    Cardiovascular disease
    10.5%
    Diabetes
    7.3%
    Chronic respiratory disease
    6.3%
    Hypertension
    6.0%
    Cancer
    5.6%
    no pre-existing conditions
    0.9%
    *Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%).

  39. David A says:

    Ossqss, dies it give these percentages against the cure rate or the infected number?

    This link is for the photo of people in South Korea shopping for a mask. ( Wow, speak about shooting yourself in the foot. Insane to stand in those lines fir minimally effective masks)

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-point-to-further-sharp-declines-as-asia-follows-wall-street-plunge-2020-02-28?mod=markets

  40. Ossqss says:

    I think the boarder wall discussion will come back to a high level very soon.

    https://apnews.com/a7d2aaac19fc3022ba686ba91e7d4395

    @David A, this is the source. It is fairly deep with many citations for support on the subject matter.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

  41. E.M.Smith says:

    @Ossqss:

    That action by Turkey is fundamentally evil.

    I hope the EU in coordination w/ Trump, slap Turkey up side the head w/ tariffs and bans until the fix this.

  42. cdquarles says:

    @Simon, no they are not especially tight. I’ve had a few of them over the years and one in the last 30 days. It is MRI machines that are tight.

  43. E.M.Smith says:

    @Jim2:

    Thanks for the compliment.

    Early in life I got used to people in authority catching up later. (Or being overrun by events). Also learned that those not in authority were often more wise. In my small farm town, there was a park across the street from our restaurant. I’d play there and “old folks” would sit on the benches. We would talk. Some were in their 90s.

    I didn’t realize if at the time, but in addition to the entertainment value for both of us, they were often passing on what they thought was most important that they had learned or experienced. Stories of W.W. 1 & 2, the Great Depression, being an old Black Man in South America having moved away from The South – then returning, what polio and small pox and the Spanish Flu did to cities, and more. The importance of being prepared for bad times and enjoying the good times. In some ways my remembered experience goes back to the late 1800s, by proxy.

    Essentially it comes down to NEVER forget your history and NEVER sugar coat it. Remember the hard won basic truths learned over generations. Do not let authority determine truth, for it often lies. To thyne own self, be true.

    Then Mum bought a set of history books. Lots of pictures / paintings; and I got fascinated with Natural History. By about age 12, I was already spanning from the 4 billion years back formation of earth into our projected future in space (“Men In Space” was a favorite show). As it was near nothing for a Saturday Movie, for years I watched almost every movie that came to town, many of them historical. Classics like Sparticus and Cleopatra along with accidental histories like B&W B murder mysteries and vaudeville comedies (and every “Road To…” with Bing & Bob ;-)

    AND I remembered it all.

    It makes for a very large information base that tends to stability and new assertions have to integrate into it without major offence to proved truths.

    So some “authority” says “you do not need 2 weeks food”, and I “flash” on that chain of memories: Dad at 12 hunting rabbits during The Great Depression, Mum & me in the back yard with a bowl of 1 can tuna w/ mayo and a half dozen crackers as she explained “Now imagine this is all you have for a week! , that is what it is like during war rationing.”, and the Mormon stories of the Plague Of Crickets / Miracle of the Gulls, the Donner Party, folks begging food in The Grapes Of Wrath, MY experience with families living from cars as fruit pickers in the late 50s (not Mexicans, these were post WWII bootstrapping white families deciding whether to eat or fix the flat tire to get to the next job – Dad gave them an old almost worn out tire and some beans), MY Dad teaching me to grow squash at 3 years old (a giant banana squash that got me hooked on gardening forever :-) and explaining why it was important to have your own garden “for bad times”, MY Dad bringing home 25 lb bags of beans and rice because that was economical and “it is important to have some stores”, folks begging food in various movies, and more. (Welcome to Aspe Land …)

    And the Tidy Mind shouts a silent “Bull Shit” at the screen. For the simple reason that several lifetimes of experience by proxy says you ALWAYS need 2 weeks, preferably 2 months, and a year of food is better, as bad times DO come. Wars. Great Depressions. Plagues. Crop failures. Job losses. Earthquakes. Famine. Invasions. Droughts. Quarateens. And more.

    I live in a different world from theirs. They live in a decadal world of perpetual Supermarkets and all knowing benign Authority. I live in a thousand year history of periodic bad times and governmental abuse & collapse, punctuated by occasional good times you must make for yourself.

    And I never forget to respect history, mine or by proxy.

  44. Gail Combs says:

    I just went to answer a question elsewhere and came across this:

    It looks like that added ingredient, besides alc, that Larry L suggested that I could not remember the name of, may have just got banned by the FDA…

    This is a nice layman’s explanation to hand out BTW.
    Do Hand Sanitizers Work and Does Hand Sanitizer Kill Coronavirus

    ..In may be news to you but back in April of 2019, the FDA banned 28 chemicals from being used in hand sanitizers due to safety concerns. A decision that leaves manufacturers with only 3 approved active ingredient options:

    Isopropyl Alcohol
    Ethyl Alcohol
    Benzalkonium Chloride [Used in non-alcohol sanitizers – gc]

    Which 4 Hand Sanitizers Were Tested and were able to Kill SARS Viral Particles?

    Sterillium Rub 80% Ethanol
    Sterillium Gel 85% Ethanol
    Sterillium Virugard 95% Ethanol

    if you see a hand sanitizer that say’s “kills SARS or “Kills Wuhan or Novel Coronavirus” they are not complying with FDA regulations of OTC (over the counter) claims .

    In fact as our research unfolds for this article, the makers of Purell, have just been warned by the FDA to STOP making claims that their ethanol-based hand sanitizer could be effective for controlling the spread of some deadly pathogens….

    BUT

    But, there have been favorable studies…at least two that tested whether or not hand sanitizers could kill the SARS coronavirus.

    Study 1

    A 2005 study (link) out of Germany that proved certain hand sanitizers were capable of killing the 2002 SARS Coronavirus and that research is hard for anyone to ignore. Lucky for us (consumers) we are not mandated to ignore studies. Especially when we’re simply trying to equip our cars, purses, and desk drawers with a best-guess method of sanitizing our hands……
    .
    .
    .

    If the above global studies aren’t enough to convince you that hand sanitizers work, then this message from our nation’s own CDC should help:

    “An alcohol-based hand sanitizer is the preferred method for cleaning your hands when they are not visibly dirty because it:“

    ♦️ Is more effective at killing potentially deadly germs on hands than soap
    ♦️ Is easier to use during the course of care, especially
    ♦️ when moving from soiled to clean activities with the same patient or resident
    ♦️ when moving between patients or residents in shared rooms or common areas
    ♦️ Improves skin condition with less irritation and dryness than soap and water

  45. Gail Combs says:

    “And on your back with pneumonia?”
    M. Simon They found on your tummy for ?-17-? hours was the best for a patient with this virus.

    Video from MedCram within https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/this-is-how-covid19-kills-you-and-how-you-can-survive-it/

  46. Gail Combs says:

    E.M. Can I have your permission to ask Daughn to post this comment as an article as a guest post?
    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/02/27/27-feb-2019-ncov-sars-cov-2-covid-19-diagnostic-of-pandemic/#comment-125853

    The ladies would enjoy it and maybe the hard headed among the group could learn something.

    Being prepared IS NOT FEAR PORN! It is just being sensible. Also the more people who prepared weeks and months and years ago will not be a strain on the system when the Just-In-Time folks finally wake up.

  47. E.M.Smith says:

    @Gail:

    Yes, you have my permission to share / cross post / publish the comment on prepping. Maybe it will help someone.

  48. jim2 says:

    Benzalkonium Chloride belongs to the large family of quaternary ammonium salts. These have a wide array of uses from wood preservation, pool shock chemical, mold remediation, and much, much more. They feature a nitrogen atom with a positive charge with 4 organic groups attached. That is the cation. The anion is typically a chloride ion, but can be other negatively charges species. Typically, it has a molecular weight greater than the common alcohols and is a salt. This means it is persistent on surfaces as it does not evaporate or decompose like sodium hypochlorite.

    Apparently it isn’t as good against corona virus as some others.

    https://www.chemistryviews.org/details/news/11220539/How_Long_Can_Coronaviruses_Live_on_Surfaces.html

  49. Gail Combs says:

    THANKS EM!

    I always try to give credits BTW.

  50. Gail Combs says:

    Speaking of Coronaviruses living on surfaces…

    One of the Ladies had this from her local Hospital

    Coronavirus myths and facts….
    “Myth: I should avoid touching packages or letters from China.

    Fact: It’s safe to handle mail from China. Coronaviruses don’t live long on objects, so you’re not going to be infected by packages from China…..”

    I really want to swat some sense into the idiots at the CDC…..
    My Reply, that could be useful for countering the bone headed misinformation, slyly inserted into statement like that. Note the statement is True as written BUT the insinuation that you do not have to worry about touching things is false.

    ….
    NOPE, That is incorrect Coronaviruses can live a long time on certain surfaces like stainless steel. WORSE that mis-information may make people unaware of person to object to person transfer:

    Transmission of SARS and MERS coronaviruses and influenza virus in healthcare settings: the possible role of dry surface contamination.

    Abstract
    Viruses with pandemic potential including H1N1, H5N1, and H5N7 influenza viruses, and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)/Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) coronaviruses (CoV) have emerged in recent years. SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and influenza virus can survive on surfaces for extended periods, sometimes up to months. Factors influencing the survival of these viruses on surfaces include: strain variation, titre, surface type, suspending medium, mode of deposition, temperature and relative humidity, and the method used to determine the viability of the virus….

  51. E.M.Smith says:

    BTW, there are DIY hand sanitizers that work.
    Hydrogen peroxide.
    1 Tbs bleach / quart of water.
    Rum :’)
    UV lights

    This notion that Central Authority are the only people with an answer is seriously broken.

  52. Gail Combs says:

    Here are a couple of other bits of mis-information put out by a local hospital.

    Myth: Face masks are an important tool in preventing COVID-19.

    Fact: CDC does not recommend that most healthy people wear a face mask to protect themselves from this or other respiratory viruses. A face mask should only be used by people who have been exposed to COVID-19 and are feeling sick or those who know they have it….

    Actually a mask is useful for keeping hands off your face and to keep people from approaching closely however with a mask shortage, a cowboy bandana works just as well for keeping your dirty hands away from your face.

    They FAIL to mention the 6 to 9 feet SAVE person to person distance. If you are not going to use masks then use save distancing. Even three feet, something that can be used when dealing with cashiers etc is a good idea.

    They do however say:

    CDC recommends everyone follow these healthy practices:

    ♦️ Avoid close contact with people who are sick.
    ♦️ Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth with unwashed hands.
    ♦️ Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, especially after going to the bathroom, before eating, and after blowing your nose, coughing or sneezing.
    ♦️ Use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer when soap and water isn’t available.
    ♦️ Stay home when you are sick.
    ♦️ Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue away.
    ♦️ Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces with a regular household cleaner.

  53. Gail Combs says:

    Also the 90% Iso-propyl alc is better than nothing.

    Given what I do, I keep a small squeeze bottle of soapy water and then the large bottle of clean water. Realemon bottles are perfect for the task after I use up the lemon juice to make no-sugar lemonade. The squeeze tops mean you can wash your hands without getting everything all over you and in a pinch handle the task alone. Since we have a cranky well pump, I have bottles at every sink. I hate my hands full of soap and NO WATER.

  54. Gail Combs says:

    Yeah, it is economic, but it is virus related too…

    So it looks like March 2 is the day to go out and do a lot of stocking up if you need to.

    Actually the idiots picked the WRONG time, Any bets a lot of Trump supporters decide March 2 is the day they want to buy their 2 -8 week supply???

    HMMMmmm time to go over what is in stock again and figure what resupplies I need.

    Do not forget that root veggies like onions, potatoes, carrots, parsnips, beets…. can be stored in a cool dry place. Apples keep well too.

    Wrapping in newspaper (apples, green tomatoes) or storing in sand (carrots) are old methods that have been around for years.

    For example:
    https://www.westcoastseeds.com/blogs/garden-wisdom/how-to-store-carrots

  55. E.M.Smith says:

    So the first Monday after a Sunday 1st payday? And they think that’s a good day to pick?

    That’s approaching OMG Dumb level. The nation is full of folks living “paycheck to paycheck” paying monthly bills right after the check clears at the bank. We usually do a bill pay cycle then including mortgage and health insurance…

    Then there is the profound stupidity of trying to connect buying to Trump. Votes matter. Buying not so much.

  56. Another Ian says:

    “Coronavirus: Now they get it. WHO says 1% mortality.”

    http://joannenova.com.au/2020/02/coronavirus-now-they-get-it/

  57. Gail Combs says:

    Well, EM no one ever said the Snowflakes could actually think.

    Also, after over a decade of the PC crowd bullying ordinary Americans into silence, there is a lot more resentment that the echo chamber crowd realizes. They think silence means agreement.

    Also, speaking of snowflakes, this is a riot.

    Starbucks move over Dunkin Donuts is gunning for ya!

    Dunkin Donuts is now selling bags of snackable bacon
    https://13wham.com/news/offbeat/dunkin-donuts-now-selling-bags-of-snackable-bacon?fbclid=IwAR2fw5QTSr7_oMiZux7PG2tvuyIzMGqI-6eqJELMhKv2zmB3m9f7GqwT3nU

    That is going to make a heck of a lot of cops and truckers very happy. Actually their breakfast menu is a lot better than a burger joints. Haven’t been in one in years.

  58. E.M.Smith says:

    Was in one near Orlando a week or two ago. Bacon, egg, cheese b’fast muffin and it was GOOD. While Starbucks has nothing to fear from their faux mocha, their American coffe is good enough.

    Bag ‘o Bacon, y’say? You know where I’m going… ;-)

  59. Compu Gator says:

    Steven Fraser [said] 28 February 2020 at 3:16 am [GMT]:

    EM: CT tests are fast, provided that there is a Radiologist on hand to read the study. [….] A down side is that a CT is a lot of radiation. Now that they know what to look for, perhaps they could match with st[andar]d chest x-rays … which are far fewer rems.

    Well, then! Perhaps better for hospital & clinic workflow, there are now x-ray machines on wheels that can be brought to the patient by a single radiology-imaging worker, i.e., the machine would be brought to the patients, which would allow the patients to be diagnosed while being isolated in a special suspected-CoV-19 ward. Much better than bringing patients on gurneys thro’ hospital corridors past innocent bystanders & staff to rooms where the immovable CT-scanners are installed.

    Let’s just say that this layman has had unexpected recent opportunities to see those machines, which look like industrial vacuum cleaners-on-steroids, being routinely rolled around hospital corridors. I don’t know whether they have technical limitations that might disqualify them for diagnosis of CoV-19.

  60. p.g.sharrow says:

    it appears that the second “unknown origin” case is in Mr. Smith’s back yard.
    A second coronavirus case of “unknown origin” was confirmed in the state of California on Friday, after a Santa Clara County resident reportedly tested positive for the disease.

    https://www.foxnews.com/health/second-coronavirus-case-unknown-origin-confirmed-california-cdc

  61. p.g.sharrow says:

    It appears that this is the original story:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/a-second-case-of-coronavirus-found-through-spread-in-california/2020/02/28/ae53c93a-5a77-11ea-9b35-def5a027d470_story.html
    both of these “unknown origin” patients are older women with other problems that were admitted for some time before somebody thought to check for Coronavirus and tested positive, so it is here and on the loose. Stay healthy, take your vitamin C !

  62. Bill S. says:

    If you go on hard lock down be sure to download John Ringo’s series “Black Tide Rising”.
    Per Wiki “Series based on a zombie apocalypse, but dealing with living, near-rabid, infected humans rather than the living dead.”

  63. Ossqss says:

    With respect to the unknown origin patients, one would wonder if they recieved any packages recently. Just curious on the shelf life question on the contaminent virus and the rapid distribution systems for deliveries now days. Heck, I get some Amazon stuff same day now, and a pizza or Uber eats in 20 minutes. Just another vector to consider.

  64. Ossqss says:

    Interesting cross road is upon us statistically FWIW.

    Closed cases have nearly equaled active ones as of this last report. Not sure its relavent, but the leveling appears on logarithmic tab on the charts also.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

  65. billinoz says:

    How’s this for government stupidity !
    There is a mass outbreak of this epidemic in Iran with hundreds dying and thousands of graves dug ready for the fallen. It would be commonsense to closed the Aussie borders to Iranians and make Australians coming here from Iran, spend 14 days at least in Quarantine.
    Instead our beloved dopey Australian government has done the opposite and allowed free entry for Iranians and anyone else coming here via Iran.
    so now we have an Iranian woman who flew in a week ago and then started work again as a beautician in a beauty parlour on the Gold Coast. She gave 40 odd women facial massages in a couple of days. And then felt ill and went to the hospital. And yes she is ill with COVID 19.
    Now that the poop is on the carpet our dopey dumbnut minister for Health greg Hunt, has decided to stop Iranians coming here without staying in a third country for 14 days. And Aussies coming back from Iran must self isolate for 14 days.

    Ummmmm !
    Was this predictable : Absolutely !
    Is Hunt’s fate predictable ? Absolutely ! he will be hunted form office as a complete bloody dodo !

    PS : great post about Iran by Jo Nova here : http://joannenova.com.au/2020/02/iran-coronavirus-crisis-the-new-epicentre-of-the-world-australia-still-importing-deadly-disease/#comment-2283238

  66. M Simon says:

    The politics is getting ugly. In some places.

    Flashback: CDC Workers Were “Crying in the Hallways” When Trump Was Elected President
    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/02/flashback-cdc-workers-were-crying-in-the-hallways-when-trump-was-elected-president/

    Q Have you seen evidence that the CDC is trying to hurt you? That there are career officials —

    THE PRESIDENT: No, I don’t think the CDC is at all. No, they’ve been — they’ve been working really well together. No, they really are. They’re professional. I think they’re beyond that. They want this to go away. They want to do it with as little disruption, and they don’t want to lose life. I see the way they’re working. This gen- — these people behind me and others that are in the other room, they’re incredible people. No, I don’t see that at all.

  67. M Simon says:

    Maybe we are coming out of politics? Or at least reducing it.

    Fauci: ‘I’m Not Being Muzzled’ – The U.S. Will ‘See Additional Cases’ of Coronavirus
    https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2020/02/28/fauci-im-not-being-muzzled-the-u-s-will-see-additional-cases-of-coronavirus/

  68. jim2 says:

    If COVID 19 turns out to be a seasonal disease like the flu, then we will have to deal with this every Winter. If it isn’t seasonal, then it would run its course, i guess and after many deaths become a minor problem.

    I’m thinking it will be seasonal, but that remains to be confirmed. I still work, so holing up isn’t an option. I have taken measures like carrying my own sanitizer, but haven’t started wearing masks or anything yet.

    If seasonal, are we going to shut down schools every winter? Thoughts?

  69. E.M.Smith says:

    It will depend on mutation rates and immunity..
    If it mutates fast enough, it returns each year.
    If immunity is high and mutation low, it dies out.

  70. David A says:

    I accidentally posted on the 22nd thread a post about why I think the death rate is closer to 5 percent, and the one percent is clearly wrong. Please tell me why I may be wrong.

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/02/23/22-feb-2019-ncov-sars-cov-2-covid-19-corona-virus-pandemic/#comment-125897

  71. llanfar says:

    @David There area number of factors (both internal and external) that impact mortality rates. IMO, one of the biggest is air pollution.

    Combine that with population density, eating and sanitary practices (which impact R0 locally), and other factors that may impact R0 (temperature having been discussed)… I could see why China would have a much higher infection/mortality rate.

  72. E.M.Smith says:

    @David A:

    I’ve left older postings open so discussions started on one can continue there, if desired. It doesn’t really matter which one you use.

    Per CFR, Case Fatality Rate, it varies strongly with level of medical care and general health.

    About 80% of cases are “mild” and 20% severe. They are worse if you have already existing heart, lung, kidney or other conditions.

    That 20% are the candidates for CFR. Many go to the ICU where 15% of the 20% die anyway. Now, what hapoens to the batch that would survive in the ICU when the ICU is full up? Most die.

    So CFR can be as low as 1 or 2 percent, or up around 10 to 15%, depending.

    THAT is why slowing the spread is so important, even if it can’t be stopped. More folks get medical care, so more survive, so a lower CFR.

  73. David A says:

    IIanfar, ,please read the linked comment, as I covered much of that.

  74. E.M.Smith says:

    Golly, at 9 minutes in, he says “Hope is not a strategy”! It’s catching on.

    Has some nice general prepping advice (I.e. stock up on food and medicine) along with discussion of Chna, W.H.O. as usless, and more.

  75. Gail Combs says:

    Daughn is digging and tossing info out fast. Most is economic. These two are not.

  76. Gail Combs says:

    From the Ladies:
    POTUS previously spoke of Corona case in Washington hospital that wasn’t doing so well. Fox News just alerted that that person has died. Probably why POTUS is having news conference.

    The person who died was a Diamond Princess passenger.

  77. E.M.Smith says:

    Watching live POTUS CDC presser. Looks like the lady in Washington St. has died. New travel bans on Iran, parts of S.Korea, Italy. 35 Million masks a month contracted and 45 Million in hand.

  78. BobbyCannoli says:

    @Gail Combs

    The links Heshmat Alavi tweet segues (sp?) into something I’ve been thinking about the last few days.

    Iran has seen an especially bad and quick outbreak, and even more especially among the leadership of the regime. That strikes me as strange. Can’t help but wonder if there’s something else going on here. When I speculate, the first thing to come to mind is that someone/group (likely a state entity) is hitting the leadership with something that’s like WuFlu, but different, and strikes more quickly. The reported leadership deaths seem to strike more quickly that those reported out of China.

    Just random thoughts.

  79. E.M.Smith says:

    CDC. Guy again said don’t prepare don’t change your routine. Just stupid.
    Now is when it is easy to buy some extra groceries and then the store can get more delivered for the last minute folks Once a city is closed it is too late. Just look at Italy. China.
    Also, with community spread in my town, skipping big groups is essential. Maybe not needed in Idaho, but here, yes.

  80. E.M.Smith says:

    @Gail:
    IMHO it is much more likely their behavior drove R0 up to about 12 and they just can’t hide it when a big name dies. Then, who gets to travel to China? Big Govt Names who then kiss each other on their return greeting…

  81. jim2 says:

    IIRC, the Chinese were “helping” Iran quite a bit. Might have come back to bite them on the butt.

  82. BobbyCannoli says:

    @jim2, @E.M. Smith,

    Good points.

  83. E.M.Smith says:

    https://www.oregon.gov/oha/ERD/Pages/Oregon-First-Presumptive-Case-Novel-Coronavirus.aspx

    Oregon announces first, presumptive case of novel coronavirus

    February 28, 2020
    […]
    PORTLAND, Ore.—Oregon Health Authority has confirmed Oregon’s first, presumptive case of novel coronavirus, COVID-19, public health officials announced today.
    The case, an adult resident of Washington County, experienced symptoms of COVID-19 beginning Feb. 19, and a sample was collected from the individual today. The sample was sent to the Oregon State Public Health Laboratory in Hillsboro, which used the new COVID-19 test kit it received Wednesday from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The lab tested the sample today—only hours after it validated the new CDC test kit.

    “Our first concern is for this individual, to make sure they’re being cared for and is able to recover,” said OHA Director Patrick Allen. “Our next priority is finding out who this individual had contact with and make sure they know about their risks, and to let them know how they can get care if they need it. We said this was a fast-moving situation, and that has proved to be true.”

    The case was not a person under monitoring or a person under investigation. The individual had neither a history of travel to a country where the virus was circulating, nor is believed to have had a close contact with another confirmed case—the two most common sources of exposure. As such, public health officials are considering it a likely community-transmitted case, meaning that the origin of the infection is unknown.

    “We are awaiting confirmation of the test results from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, but at this time we are considering this a presumptive case,” said Dean Sidelinger, MD, MSed. “The person in now appropriate isolation and appropriate care.”

    The individual spent time in a school in the Lake Oswego school district and may have exposed students and staff there.
    Public health officials will investigate potential exposures there and contact employees and families of children to let them know next steps.

    The individual has been isolated and is being cared for at Kaiser Permanente Westside Medical Center in Hillsboro.

    So how long until we close schools (aka the daily germ exchange) like China, Japan, Korea,…

  84. Gail Combs says:

    If I recall There were Chinese scientists and students in Iran.
    I can not find the story or tweet I was looking for but I did find this:

    Chinese and Iranian scientists discover ferocious dinosaur tracks
    By Wu Yong and Huang Wenshu | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2017-07-13
    “Paleontologists from China and Iran have found tracks of two-toed carnivorous dinosaurs in the Alborz Mountains in Iran.

    The tracks were exposed during construction of a highway in recent years.”

    There is also this:

  85. E.M.Smith says:

    https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/28/21158429/california-coronavirus-covid-19-santa-clara-unknown-source-second-case

    Hours later in Washington, officials announced that they had also identified two presumptive new cases of COVID-19. One case involved a woman who had recently traveled to an area in South Korea where the virus was spreading. The other involved a high school student who became ill on February 24. The student did not attend classes while he had symptoms, but the school announced that it will be closed on Monday for cleaning. The student had not had any contact with people known to have the virus, and the source of their infection remains unknown.

    So likely going to get a crop of asymptomatic spreaders in the high school crowd.

  86. jim2 says:

    Over the past few decades, China and Iran have developed a broad and deep partnership centered on China’s energy needs and Iran’s abundant resources as well as significant non-energy economic ties, arms sales and defense cooperation, and geostrategic balancing against the United States. This partnership presents a unique challenge to U.S. interests and objectives. In particular, China’s policies have hampered U.S. and international efforts to dissuade Iran from developing a nuclear weapons capability. This paper examines factors driving Chinese-Iranian cooperation, potential tensions in the Chinese-Iranian partnership, and U.S. policy options for influencing this partnership to meet U.S. objectives. The authors conclude that the U.S. ability to fundamentally reshape China’s relationship with Iran is fairly limited, but that the United States should continue to forestall an Iranian nuclear weapons capability and pressure China to reduce ties to Iran.

    https://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/OP351.html

  87. jim2 says:

    TEHRAN – A delegation of Chinese medical experts arrived in Tehran on Saturday with a cargo of aid to help combat the novel coronavirus, known as COVID-19, IRNA reported.

    “Chinese medical team arrived in Tehran with new aid,” China’s Ambassador to Iran Chang Hua wrote on his Twitter account on Saturday.

    “Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said that the first Chinese shipments has arrived in Iran and more aid would be sent. Be strong Iran,” the envoy tweeted on Friday.

    Some 5,000 coronavirus test kits, and 250,000 face masks have also been sent last week.

    https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/chinese-medical-team-in-tehran-to-help-fight-coronavirus/ar-BB10yKM7

  88. Gail Combs says:

    “…Now is when it is easy to buy some extra groceries and then the store can get more delivered for the last minute folks Once a city is closed it is too late….”

    That is what I am trying to pound into some very thick skulls.

    Buy stuff you will eat and that is cheap if you are low on cash.
    QuickOats, Oatmeal + cinnamon +cloves+ nutmeg+allspice, some walnuts + sugar/sweetner if you wish. Grits is another option and even cheaper.
    That makes a cheap, quick breakfast that takes little room. 3 pak of 42 oz canister is $7.00 & a lb of walnuts for $7.00. You probably already have your favorite spices in stock or need to buy them anyway. Sugar is a $1/lb = $15 for breakfast for a couple of weeks or more.

    Peanut butter, you can get a big jar for $5.00 (jelly is the same) to put some protein on E.M. sour dough bread.
    Flour – you can get ‘great value’ self-rising for $1.28/5 pounds.
    So $20 for lunch for a couple of weeks

    20# bag of rice is under $10 and not hard to store. Add canned meats + veggies and you have dinner
    Beans are the same but a bit more expensive

    Buy a couple bags of onions and you can survive for a couple weeks even without the meat.

    The big bottle of olive oil will set you back ~$15 to $20 but it lasts even for me and I use it every day. The cheap veggie oil is less than $5

    Noodles/pasta is a bit more expensive ~$5 to $10 per package. As are your sauces in a can or jar

    Powdered and canned milk is a bit pricey too but the powdered will store fine in the freezer. I use the powdered milk with cocoa to make salt free cocoa in the winter and store what I do not use in the freezer over the summer.

    The only thing that is really going to cost $$$ is the canned meat.
    >>>>>>>>>

    So you can spend ~ $50/person and have enough to eat for 2 to 3 weeks if you want to skimp on the meat. At least you will not starve :>D

  89. Gail Combs says:

    Iran:

    Sylvia: “…I heard/read there’s something like 23,000 cases of the WuFlu in Iran……and they aren’t restricting travel.

    I’ve been reading so much I can’t remember where I saw it. But I did wonder……how do they know? How on earth would they be able to make any kind of a reasonable estimate in Iran???? I’d love to know how they arrived at it.”

    She has a major point. So far the two countries with the most trouble are China and Iran, both of whom are not trustworthy.

  90. Compu Gator says:

    Someone, perhaps a few of E.M.’s CoV-19-specific threads ago, lamented that rodents had converted contents of stored prep-food containers into rodent scats, because they’ll contentedly munch thro’ plastic food-storage containers to get to whatever they reckon as food inside. The commenter then resolved to use metal containers in the future.

    Does anyone have recommendations on specifically what metal containers to seek–and where? I’m thinking that “Army-Navy surplus” stores might not yet have converted to stocking mostly-plastic containers, unlike the outdoors or hunting-&-fishing stores already seem to have (e.g., 50-cal.-ammo-style containers [†]).

    ——-
    Note †: I used the surplus metal ones for storing floppy disks, esp. installation media, to protect them from stray magnetism. Altho’ I’d be surprised if many have enough magnetism left on their tracks to still be readable: (2020 – ≥1981) ≤39 years of potential fading in storage!

  91. p.g.sharrow says:

    On the farm,we used light metal garbage cans to store chicken feed away from rodents, They love to chew on poly olefin plastics and rubber.

  92. E.M.Smith says:

    I’ve used galvanized garbage cans in the garage for things like sleeping bags (watch out for water condensation in humid places). Ammo cans for non-food stuff. Food goes in glass jars with metal lids.

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