29 Feb 2020 Covid-19 Lockdown

Welcome to Leapyear Lockdown! Going a day early due to a “community spread” case near me.

Hopefully this will either be ended soon by aggressive community medicine measures, or will run to completion before our preparations run out. In either case we’ve hopefully removed ourselves from the problem space for a few months.

I’ll be starting a Spring Garden early. The weather has been good lately. Our fresh produce will be running out over the next 2 weeks, so radishes and lettuce in April will be welcome!

South Korea continues to expand, and in Iran, a novel method of sharing. Seems they like to pass around a hookah pipe among a group of folks… I’m guessing that sharing a doobie or bong in the West will become less common…

I’ve also added a new category: Covid

I’ll be going back to prior postings and adding them to it, to make finding them easier.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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124 Responses to 29 Feb 2020 Covid-19 Lockdown

  1. beththeserf says:

    Staying home w/out needing deliveries means you’re not getting sick and infecting others and you’re flattening the curve of the crisis so that the most vulnerable can fare better, our infrastucture will be less stressed at any one time.

  2. philjourdan says:

    My company has already instituted mandatory Telework for offices in what is now the quarantined countries.

    And it does make the democrats look stupid when Trump preemptively closed the border to those countries. I saw a cartoon of the democrats embracing COVID-19/ Hehehehe

  3. Up until today I thought we might dodge this bullet. We’ve had our daughter and grandson down from Montreal for two weeks now, and had hopes of them going home soon.

    Now, not so much.

    The increase of daily infected is significant. Testing in the USA is non existent.

    We’ll be keeping our son home from school and our daughter here for the near term. Stay safe everybody.,

  4. E.M.Smith says:

    The only good news on USA testing is that Trump & Pence look to have kicked some CDC Butt so now 40 labs can test and Dr.s can order it w/o CDC saying no.

    I expect testing to rise exponentially. Unfortunately, I fear cases will rise exponentially as they find out how much they really missed.

    S. Korea, from one suoerspreader, seems to have blossomed to 3000+ in about one week. We’ll have a better idea how much we are in the soup in about a week.

  5. E.M.Smith says:

    In this video, he does a little bit of (justified) self congratulation as various agencies catch up… then there is an interesting shot of a COSTCO in Hawaii after their officials said maybe you ought to have 2 weeks of food on hand for quaranteens… I think it is at the open, and all the folks shown will fit inside easily, but still…

    I’m just glad I’m all done and buttoned up and need not worry about being in a mob and someone starts coffing…

    Has interesting stats on current case levels too. Also points to references on higher R0 up to 7+
    NPI is non-pharmaceutical intervention, like quaranteen.

  6. Power Grab says:

    I just saw a post on Twitter about tent cities being set up to send the homeless to. There is a link to a map showing the locations. It comes up on my phone, but when I tried to bring it up on the computer, it is an empty map of the US.

    Gov. Newsome did an EO to set them up. Story is, there is pushback saying many of the locations make no sense.

  7. M Simon says:

    Key Missteps at the CDC Have Set Back Its Ability to Detect the Potential Spread of Coronavirus

    As the highly infectious coronavirus jumped from China to country after country in January and February, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lost valuable weeks that could have been used to track its possible spread in the United States because it insisted upon devising its own test.

  8. David A says:

    Curious if anybody will go to these tent towns. Once again, group quarantine is not quarantine.

    Princess cruise ship = death trap.
    Army barracks. – same
    Hotels. -. same
    Old folks home. same
    China detention hospitals. same
    High rise apartment. same

  9. M Simon says:

    Feb 29 Press Conf. Starts at the “Corona-19” start.

  10. David A says:

    Great example of group spread from South Korea…
    In Daegu, 1900 Shincheonji Church members have been tested for coronavirus.

    1300 had symptoms & 600 did not.

    Among those 1300 with symptoms, 87.5% were confirmed with the virus .

    BUT out of the 600 WITHOUT symptoms, 70% were confirmed with
    the virus.

    Over 80 percent infected, and moving towards 100 percent, false negatives plus time. Really illustrates the absence of immunity of a brand new virus, whereas there is natural immunity in the population to the common flus.

    Imagine what is happening in China at those group quarantine bed facilities and at thousands of group elderly care facilities. ( And we are suppose to believe their numbers)

  11. Gail Combs says:

    Some interesting comments/ground reports from the ladies:
    Ground report from greater Seattle and Seattle

    Yesterday we had to have my husband admitted to the hospital for mobility issues…. when I got to the hospital, it was interesting. There were signs all over the place in English and Chinese. One of the check in counters was blocked off and being sanitized. It was in the evening and wasn’t very busy. Later, my daughter and son in law were there and apparently there was a woman at the desk that was being told to go home, and that area also got sanitized. There were even fewer people then.

    Today, (hubby got moved in the wee hours), we went in to see him, and it was pretty normal at that facility. Again there were similar multi language signs, chinese, I don’t think there was Korean, but am not sure. On the way home my daughter wanted to stop at Costco to pick up cat litter, and it was PACKED, like it would be at Christmas. Most people had carts full, and the lines were long and we had to wait. Also, as we went into the store, they sanitize the handle, and they had disposable glove and masks displayed.

    When we got home, she turned her TV on and found that another person had passed away, and came and told me. So in combination with the other cases showing up, people were prepping. We’ve been prepped for a while, so on that score we are okay. We were really hoping that we could deal with my husband’s problems at home, but that turned out to not be possible….

    I was just now thinking about one of the nurses we were chatting with, and told us, while cleaning an area to do a sterile procedure, the area is cleansed 3 separate times, and then disinfected 3 times. She said it had been clinically proven to really reduce the chance of infection. The other thing we talked about was how to remove gloves. I told her I had watched a video about it. She said she had done training with gloves multiple times, but the best training was when the instructor had them cover their gloves with shaving cream before removing them because you could see very easily if you were doing it properly or not.


    “Gov Jay Inslee declared a state of emergency in Washington state. We lost the one patient. More are reported infected. One city had a couple of people at a nursing home who have the virus, I believe, and now that city has a fire station closed and it’s staff under quarantine. I apologize I don’t have links. I saw this/heard this on local network news and I was in and out of the room so I know I didn’t get all of what they were reporting.

    I can see, now, how easily the system can get overwhelmed. Can you imagine losing one fire station and it’s crew to quarantine? ….

    Oh, and a worker in a South King County post office processing center is sick. They don’t handle mail there, they handle packages. I think they are closing that facility to disinfect it……and then I can’t remember now if they are quarantining them or what……..”


    So it looks like now that President Trump put a boot up CDC’s Ass they are testing and finding cases… Who’da’thunk?

  12. Pouncer says:

    I am curious about NORTH Korea…

  13. jim2 says:

    On sanitation, benzyl ammonium chloride can be purchased pre-diluted for sanitation. HTH 3X algaecide for pools is 15% mixed benzyl ammonium chloride and 15% mixed ethylbenzyl ammonium chlorides. In addition to the benzyl or ethylbenzyl groups, both of these have two methyl groups and one variable length alkyl group.

    On Amazon, the premixed sterilization fluids have about 0.1% activity. At any rate, this could be diluted to a total activity of 0.2% with ethanol so you get the known power of ethanol to kill viruses, but evaporates, and quats that will persist on the surface and kill some viruses and also bacteria that could cause secondary infections.

    In fact, I found a paper that indicates the ethanol/ethylbenzyl quat mixture will kill corona virus also.


    Here is another source that indicates quats kill corona viruses (and also has a wide range of disinfectants.)


  14. E.M.Smith says:


    All you can know for sure is that they will claim great success at keeping it out. Most likely, satellite measurement of body bonfires will be the only real data.


    About 2 weeks ago I shifted from CDC reports to math projection, thus my being buttoned up now.

    I think they will find thousands of cases as they start effective testing. I hope I am wrong. But I’m pretty sure we will follow the pattern of S.Korea (which is still on the exponential…)

    360,000 students from China in the USA. How many made the trip home for Chinese new year? How many businesses have staff shuttling? What are the odds that, of the thousands of flights from China since DECEMBER not one contagion happened?

    IFF the CDC numbers are right, it is only from a 5 sigma event of luck, IMHO.

    But we will find out over the next week or two. California had 2 cases of transmission in the home. Then testing barely got started and we already have community spread of unknown origin with cases in California, Oregon, Washington… now form the exponential on those missing sources walking around…

  15. E.M.Smith says:


    Interesting… I need to check my algicides to see what is in them! (Aquarium, aquaculture).

    I’ve got a gallon or 2 of isopropanol bottles, and expect to only need them IF forced to go out… so unlikely to need a lot of disinfecting. (It is also emergency fuel supply for cooking in the event of electricity outage; but now depricated since I’ve scored some methanol).

    I’ve also got about 1/2 gallon of hydrogen peroxide…

  16. jim2 says:

    One caveat using quats for sanitation:

    Recently, concern has arisen around the discovery that the active ingredient (quat) has a tendency to become attracted to and absorbed into fabrics. Furthermore, quaternary ammonium chlorides (quats) are cationic, or positively charged, surfactants, and they are attracted to fabric surfaces which are anionic, or negatively charged. This results in a portion of the quats becoming unavailable to disinfect hard surfaces. For example, a pail is filled with one gallon of disinfectant solution diluted at ½ oz/gal, and the active ingredient concentration is measured at 800 ppm. After a cotton wipe is placed in the solution and allowed to soak for 10 minutes, the quat level remaining in solution may decrease to 400 ppm or less. This drop in concentration occurs because the quat is absorbed into the cotton fabric. When the wipe is removed from the liquid and excess solution is wrung out, the collected solution is also 400 ppm or less (see figures below for visual example). Therefore, the solution applied to the surface to be disinfected contains less than the intended 800 ppm quat.

    Click to access QuatAbsorptionEcoLab.pdf

    A non-ionic plastic such as polyethylene would be a good choice if it can be found and if no anionic chemical groups have been added to modify properties.

  17. E.M.Smith says:

    Alex Azar on Fox said there is a probable community transmission case in Chicago.

  18. jim2 says:

    Nylon would probably be better than cotton for quat sanitation application, but you would want to test the liquid.

  19. E.M.Smith says:

    Washington State declared state of emergency. Virus spread from a nursing home to a hospital. Transmission may have been happening cryptically for 6 weeks.

  20. Gail Combs says:

    Jo Nova has an incredible article up:

    MONEY! Larry, was wondering about cleaning bills.

    I did it accidentally a while ago but I wanted to make sure it was OK with bleach and hot water.

    So I just tried it again. I placed a dollar bill in a small fine mess lingerie bag. I then tossed it in with my white towels in a 25 yr old ‘rip the heck out of your clothes’ agitator washing machine on HOT cycle WITH BLEACH. I now have a nice clean dollar bill.

    You can get cash from the bank in a sleeve and then launder it at home if you wish.

    Gives a whole new meaning to laundering money. 🙃

  21. E.M.Smith says:

    Or just let it sit for 9 days… or, since Larry hss a UV Bulb, give it 10 minutes on a side ;-)

  22. Compu Gator says:

    E.M.Smith [said] 1 March 2020 at 9:39 pm [GMT]:

    Washington State declared state of emergency. Virus spread from a nursing home to a hospital.

    A relatively recent experience with a family member seems to indicate that (at least some?) nursing staff at a major hospital in Central Florida considers nursing homes to be an unintended reservoir of methycillin-resistant Strephococcus aurea (MRSA). Hospital patients whose condition declines after discharge to a hospital-approved nursing facility (i.e., the latter stay being intended to complete expected recovery) are routinely tested (via nasal swab) for MRSA when reädmitted to the same hospital. Oh! I’ve been told that most of the tests come back as positive. MRSA is not a virus, but a bacterium (is it not?), but the precaution itself is a, um, troubling commentary on sanitation in nursing facilities in Central Florida. It’s quite inauspicious in the context of pandemic CoV-19.

    I seriously doubt that readers would be justified in regarding those problems as limited to Florida. I assume that the problems are the result of economic realities facing nursing homes nation-wide.[×]

    Note ×: Disclaimer: Nnot only do I not have formal training in business or economics, those subjects are among my demonstrated shortcomings.

  23. philjourdan says:

    @EM – I saw yours after I posted my comment. I am a bit behind in my reading due to my vacation (I spent almost no time on the computer – it was great!).

  24. Gail Combs says:

    The reason the UK should have shut their borders TIGHT.

    Coronavirus: England only has 15 beds for worst respiratory cases
    NHS says system will struggle if more than 28 patients need artificial lung treatment


  25. ossqss says:

    Bad ending has now dropped to 6% in closed cases, and now net far exceeds active cases. The trend continues statistically. Just sayin, better than the inverse statistically.


  26. ossqss says:

    BTW, we now have 67+ countries involved.

  27. M Simon says:

    Bitter harvest for China’s farmers as coronavirus keeps country in lockdown

    Crops are rotting in fields as workers are forced to stay at home and transport links are cut
    Poultry breeders and vegetable growers are among the hardest hit, authorities say


    China’s farm situation seems a lot like ours. Underpaid migrant farm workers are imported. In the US the imports come from Mexico. China “imports” internally. Details in the article.

  28. M Simon says:

    Testing kit issues are “close” to being resolved. Starting at about 1:50 in.

  29. Gail Combs says:

    This time NYC

  30. M Simon says:

    China’s criteria for “Corona” has changed 6 times so far. That means they are effectively measuring nothing. They have no base line.

  31. M Simon says:

    From the “Everything is fine so far” dopt.

    LIVE FROM HONG KONG: To Date in 2020, Influenza (the Flu) Accounts for More Than 50 Times the Number of Deaths as the Coronavirus in Hong Kong

    Some commenters are asking inconvenient questions. Like “Why did China shut down its economy? “

  32. Tom Shiel says:

    An interesting description of coronavirus and a suggested herbal medicinal protocol:

    Click to access coronavirus.txt.pdf

  33. Ossqss says:

    Well, the virus is presumptably here near TPA and SRQ. Now we will see the “Clear the Shelves” behavior.

    This was an interesting read, if nothing else. FWIW


  34. E.M.Smith says:


    TPA? Tampa International Airport?
    SRQ? Sarasora-Bradenton International Airport?

  35. Ossqss says:

    That is correct EM. Another news conference @2pm today on things with Desantis

  36. Gail Combs says:

    Per the local news (Seattle) at 11:30pm there are 13 confirmed covid 19 cases in Washington (includes the two dead) and 5 schools will be closed tomorrow. We have 7 first responders and a fire station closed. ‘A US Mail distribution center had a virus employee. They closed it to bring in “deep cleaning specialists, ” with the plan being to open it again when done.

  37. E.M.Smith says:

    Dr. Bruce Aylward, just returned from China, gives a very good run down of what it is really like in China and what actual contagion risks are like. Fresh ofc the plane his a 2 hour interview:

    Good bits: China is likely controlling this and thd numbers given are likely goid enough. Chiba has clud how to cortrol disease and doex what it takes.

    The bad bits: We don’t have the mindset yef to do what is needed and havd nof prepared with ghd right equipment. We need to do a lot, now.

    Most interesting to me: While aerosol spread can happen as can asymptomatic spread, they are not common (or at least not as big a worry) as I’d expected.

  38. Compu Gator says:

    Coronavirus in Florida: Live updates:
    Florida’s first cases are in Hillsborough and Manatee [@] counties.
    The Hillsborough case is an adult with a travel history to Italy. The Manatee patient is an adult resident without a history of travel to restricted countries.
    The news comes two days after federal officials expanded testing criteria and Florida became capable of processing tests within the state. On Saturday, all three Florida Department of Health labs — in Miami, Tampa and Jacksonville — became capable of testing for novel coronavirus, cutting the wait times for results to within 24 to 48 hours. For weeks, the tests were being sent to a federal lab in Atlanta, which was producing results within three to five days.

    It looks as if this will be the Tampa Bay Times’ standing index page:

    Note @: It’s Bradenton that’s the county seat of Manatee Co., which is between Hillsborough Co., whose county seat is Tampa (incl. Ybor City), bordering it to the north, and Sarasota Co., whose county seat is Sarasota [×], bordering it to the south.

    Note ×: Unlike Lake Co., whose county seat is Leesburg, instead of obvious guesses Lakeland (which is not even the county seat of Polk Co. in which it’s situated; Bartow is), or the more distant Lake City (the county seat of Columbia Co.).

  39. Compu Gator says:

    (Dang! “To err is human”. Isn’t there some WordPress option to provide authors with previews (or somesuch) of their draft comments? At least the URLs posted didn’t require correction.)

    The 2nd half of my posting should’ve been formatted as upright (i.e., not the oblique or italic in which they were mistakenly posted) to indicate that it was not the words of the Tampa Bay Times, thus:

    – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

    It looks as if this will be the Tampa Bay Times’ standing index page:

    Note @: It’s Bradenton that’s the county seat of Manatee Co., which is between Hillsborough Co., whose county seat is Tampa (incl. Ybor City), bordering it to the north, and Sarasota Co., whose county seat is Sarasota [×], bordering it to the south.

    Note ×: Unlike Lake Co., whose county seat is Leesburg, instead of obvious guesses Lakeland (which is not even the county seat of Polk Co. in which it’s situated; Bartow is), or the more distant Lake City (the county seat of Columbia Co.).

  40. E.M.Smith says:

    Though frequently requestdd, nagged, and complained about, Worpress does not have a comnent preview / edit function. A site admin may edit after the fact.

  41. Compu Gator says:

    Gail Combs [said] 2 March 2020 at 6:01 pm [GMT]:
    Per the local news (Seattle) at 11:30pm there are 13 confirmed covid 19 cases in Washington (includes the two dead) [….]


    It’s, um, grimly amusing to see the “Visit Seattle” ads that have been repeatedly inserted in E.M.’s Web pages by WordPress for the last few days.

  42. E.M.Smith says:

    The ads will quite likely be customuzed to you based on Google history.

  43. Gail Combs says:

    More news from the Ladies: this time Dora
    “Advisor to Iran’s Supreme leader dies from coronavirus, as other top officials infected

    An advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has died from the new coronavirus, as other top officials in the country are confirmed to be infected, according to multiple reports on Monday.

    The Iranian Health Ministry recorded 523 new cases in the past 24 hours, bringing the country’s known total to 1,501. Its first case was reported less than two weeks ago.”


  44. Gail Combs says:

    Oh Joy, Not that I am at all surprised.

    The changes in our Food Safety was my first fight with governemt. (We lost)

  45. Gail Combs says:

    Ladies: Charles Payne reporting 6 total dead in WA from the virus. It is an old folks home.

  46. Gail Combs says:

    Updated to: 6 dead, 13 infected. Evidence the WuFlu has been here, circulating, for weeks……

  47. Gail Combs says:

    Are we surprised??? I really want to send Nancy Messonnier to change bed pans in that old folks home!

    “Researchers at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington on Sunday said they had evidence the virus may have been circulating in the state for up to six weeks undetected — a finding that, if true, could mean hundreds of undiagnosed cases in the area.

    In Kirkland, city officials announced that now 27 of their firefighters and two of their police officers are in quarantine as they had been responding to the Kirkland LifeCare Center over the past week……”

  48. M Simon says:

    “Everything is fine so far”

    Stock Market Roars Back in Response to Overblown Coronavirus Fears – Largest Point Gain Ever…

    A guy in the comments got it right. – there will be a Central Bankers meeting about Corona on Tuesday (tomorrow).


    So I’m thinking how many people need to be infected at once to overwhelm our hospital system? 100,000. Based on a 2% death rate how many is that? 5 miilion infected at once. Now base it on a 20% serious infection rate. 500,000 infected at once.

    What are the odds?

  49. M Simon says:

    Gail Combs says:
    2 March 2020 at 11:23 pm

    Our favorite President’s administration keeps saying “At this point the risks are low.” Which is true but misleading.

    And we have similar in Illinois with students from China.

    The doublings began weeks ago..

  50. E.M.Smith says:


    We have 100,000 ICU beds of which 60,000 are already used. 40,000 before we hit the wall. It is about 20% severe cases, so at 400,000 cases we have filled the ICU and enter overflow 15% lethality land.

    Note that so far, 40% of folks get the virus in a medical facility, many healthcare workers. So at that point, 160,000 folks got it at a hospital (or related) and I’d geuss about 100,000 of them are Dr.s, Nurses, and other staff.

  51. M Simon says:

    E.M.Smith says:
    2 March 2020 at 11:46 pm

    Thanks for the update. Note: we hit the wall at 200K infections. Given that China took about 2 months to go from first infection to total panic, I’d say we have less than a month to enter the total panic stage.

    I finally convinced #3 son that it is time to stock up. Which probably means shelf clearing staring next week.

  52. E.M.Smith says:

    Sorry, I skipped a step in my estimate. At 200,000 we run out of ICU beds, but I’d figured we can do about 40,000 marginal ICU cases out of the ICU via things like oxygen and extra nursing support in expedient facilities. At least, that’s what I’d do. Pick a wing, convert it to semi-ICU. Move the patients who need O2, attention, and monitoring into it, leave folks on ventilators and other specisl equipment and with extreme needs in the full ICU.

    Got lost in the transcription. Oh well. My bad for moving too fast.

  53. Compu Gator says:

    Oh, hey-ell!

    It just occurred to me: A family member who needs to visit a major “medical facility” in Central Florida every week for chemotherapish treatment. An optimist would focus on the fact that the appointed facility’s building tends not to have patients with spur-of-the-moment illnesses (e.g., influenza).

    But practically everyone, whether ambulatory patients or their visitors, and sometimes medical staff, are mostly squeezed [*] in-and-out of those medical facilities thro’ its understandably popular multilevel free-parking garage, and more to the point, thro’ its elevators!

    Note *: Think “squeezed” in a particulate model of fluid dynamics.

  54. M Simon says:

    Dr. Matt McCarthy – Author of “Superbugs” – Suggests Coronavirus Numbers from Korea Show Mortality Rate Closer to Flu Rather Than Something Worse (VIDEO)

    He says it is 2X to 4X the death rate of the flu. I assume he is thinking of a still functioning system (he uses S. Korea numbers).

  55. Gail Combs says:

    Now let’s add John Kerry, Nancy Pelosi and what ever others were cruising around the middle east recently.

  56. ossqss says:

    One would expect the death rate to be high simply due to the asymptomatic spread impacting those who would normally not be exposed to a known sick person. Full viral permeation of the populous would certainly impact the vulnerable more with this type of transmission process. The virus is perhaps not that bad. It is just getting to the most vulnerable more than others. JMHO

  57. Gail Combs says:

    Now this is interesting from Ace of Spades.
    I had heard President trump did not want to bring back the people who were ill. Seems, perusual, the STATE DEPARTMENT decided THEY were in CHARGE and NOT THE PRESIDENT!!

    “… That’s because the actual decisions are being made by bureaucrats based on existing protocols.

    The best example of this was the decision to fly back infected American passengers from the Diamond Princess. This fateful decision helped spread the virus inside the United States. President Trump had been told that nobody with the coronavirus would be flown to America. The State Department decided to do it anyway without telling him and only made the announcement shortly after the planes landed in the United States.

    According to the Washington Post, as unfriendly an outlet to the administration as there is, “Trump has since had several calls with top White House officials to say he should have been told, that it should have been his decision and that he did not agree with the decision that was made.”

    Who in the State Department actually made the decision? That’s a very good question…

    … Dr. William Walters is still on duty. In 2017, Walters was boasting of prepping more Ebola evacuations even over President Trump’s opposition to the practice. And he was once again at the wheel now. “The question was simply this: Are these evacuees?” Walters explained the decision to evacuate coronavirus patients to the United States. “And do we follow our protocol? And the answer to that was yes on both accounts.” Consulting President Trump was not part of the protocol even on a major national security issue.

    In a Congressional briefing, Walters boasted that, “the Department executed the largest non-military evacuation of U.S. citizens in its history. The safe and efficient evacuation of 1,174 people from Wuhan, China and people onboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan is a testament to the agility, proficiency, and dedication of our workforce to accomplishing our core mission – advancing the interests of the American people.” And the triumph of the administrative state and its bureaucratic protocols over the President.

    At a State Department briefing, Walters stated that, “The chief of mission, right, through the U.S. embassy, is ultimately the head of all executive branch activities.” That is the problem. Right there…


    We really do need to be able to fire these SOBs

  58. E.M.Smith says:

    Dep South Bama does his last stock up before isolation. Talks slow but I agree w/ what he says. I went earlier due to California being ahead in this, too.

  59. E.M.Smith says:


    YES everyone needs the discipline of impending termination of employment!

    NO! Please let the DNC Leadership meet with folks from every possible ‘diversity’ and ‘impoverished’ area on the planet. Frequently!

  60. David A says:

    He says it is 2X to 4X the death rate of the flu. I assume he is thinking of a still functioning system (he uses S. Korea numbers). ”

    So call it 4 tenths of one percent, or 4 deaths per thousand.

    South Korea has 4,812 confirmed cases and 28 dead, so yes, by the absurdity of his claim, about 5 times worse then the flu.
    However as mentioned flu CFR is based on prior years of total infected, total dead, and total cured. So how many S.K. cases are cured? The answer is, 30!!!!


    So via the exact same math used for the flu, cured or fatal, South Korea has a CFR of, wait for it, 93 percent, or 930 times worse then the flu.

    The author is being willfully deceptive.

  61. Gail Combs says:

    This guy is sharp!

    Professor Jonathan Shewhuk of UC Berkeley: Urgent Email to all students – R0 of 3.0 – 8.0, 20%+ critical illness rate, will overwhelm hospitals, up to 24 days asymptomatic spread.

    UC Berkeley Coronavirus Email (CS189)


    Instructor Jonathan Shewchuk posted a new Note. Your instructor selected to notify everyone in real time of this post, bypassing user email preferences.


    We still do not know whether the novel coronavirus will be merely a tempest in a teacup or a serious disruption to our lives, but we should prepare for the worst and hope for the best. We do know for sure that there are now multiple cases of COVID-19 in the San Fransisco Bay Area, including some that got it from “community transmission”; that is, they did not travel from another country nor has the disease been traced to somebody who did. We have reasons to suspect that it has been circulating for longer than most people realize, and some of us may already have it.

    SARS-CoV-2 is highly contagious, much moreso than a regular flu. In many patients, the virus seems to have a relatively quiet period of 2-4 weeks before pneumonia symptoms develop. (It’s a bit complicated and uncertain; see the information attached below for some speculation.) One Bay Area COVID-19 patient checked into NorthBay VacaValley Hospital in Vacaville on Feb. 15, implying that community transmission was probably already occurring in the Bay Area at the beginning of February. There is also evidence that it was already spreading in the Seattle area in mid-January. Which means that there is a possibility that some of you already have it and don’t know it. There’s also a small possibility that I might have it; I’ve had a mild cough for the last week and a half.

    Given our uncertainty of the danger, I think it’s better to risk overreacting than to risk underreacting. COVID-19 has a Case Fatality Rate estimated at 2-3.5%. An estimated 20% of cases require hospitalization (allegedly 50% in Italy), with a mean hospital stay of 10 days, usually with pneumonia symptoms. And although the virus is deadliest among the old and sick, some young, healthy people have died. Your odds of survival are very high, but if you have a severe case, it might be the worst experience of your life. Many patients need to be intubated and kept on ventilators. Moreover, if there are too many cases at once, then like in Wuhan, there won’t be enough ventilators.

    I do not think that the campus response has been adequate. I expect the virus to spread particularly quickly on campus because of our large population and our many large meetings, and it is distinctly possible that it is already spreading. I don’t think campus authorities are acting in a manner commensurate with the long latency of the disease, or the fact that by the time the first severe case happens on campus, there will already be thousands of others on campus who also carry the virus.

    I have both a hopeful message and a warning: small changes in behavior, if adopted by everybody on campus, could make the difference between a semester of minor inconveniences and a semester of cancelled classes and people you know suffering.

    For these reasons, I cannot in good conscience recommend attending classes in person when videos are available. I have sent a request to the Course Capture Department asking them to minimize the delay between lectures and posting the videos. If you do wish to continue attending class, I would recommend spacing yourself out from other students.

    Unfortunately, it is getting hard to find face masks and rubber gloves, but if you can get some, I recommend wearing them whenever you leave your home. (If you don’t mind looking silly, add goggles, as it is reputed the virus can infect the eye.) Some authorities have been telling the public not to buy masks. I would strongly advise you to ignore that message (the product of a bureaucracy that sees us as nothing more than interchangeable resources). Also, remember that masks are not only to protect you, but also to protect other people if you have the virus. (Most people who have it will not initially realize they have it.)

    Even more important is to avoid public meetings insofar as it is reasaonbly possible (stay home), to wash your hands frequently (alcohol alone doesn’t suffice because it doesn’t cut through oil; use a soap/surfactant and optionally add alcohol), and to avoid touching your face, mouth, eyes, nose, ears, etc. at all times. (One of the nice things about masks and gloves is that they remind you this.)

    Thank you, Jonathan Shewhuk

    Who is Jonathan Shewhuk?
    Looks like he has a good handle on the mathematics of the situation. (And also on nutrition.)

    Jonathan Richard Shewchuk is a Professor in Computer Science at the University of California, Berkeley. He obtained his B.S. in Physics and Computing Science from Simon Fraser University in 1990, and his M.S. and Ph.D. in Computer Science from Carnegie Mellon University, the latter in 1997.

    I DO RESEARCH in scientific computing, computational geometry (especially mesh generation, numerical robustness, and surface reconstruction), numerical methods, and physically-based animation…

    FOR OVER 30 YEARS, researchers and government agencies have put forth nutritional edicts that are unsupported, and often contradicted, by their own data: “saturated fat (or all fat) is bad for you”; “polyunsaturated vegetable oils are good for you”; “grains are healthy”; “whole grains are healthier”; “fiber is important for good health”; “carbohydrates are essential”; “high LDL cholesterol (or total cholesterol) causes heart disease”; “fat is fattening”; “obesity can be combatted by eating less and exercising more.” The public and press are unaware how much scientific evidence nutritional authorities have had to ignore to perpetuate these notions, which survive on account of ambition, politics, and fear of scientific ostracism, rather than good science.

    Meanwhile, a new picture is emerging in which the “diseases of civilization&rdquo—heart disease, diabetes, overweight, tooth decay, and perhaps even Alzheimer’s disease and many cancers—are symptoms of a metabolic dysfunction caused by both the wrong foods and deficiencies of the right ones. The most likely culprits appear to be metabolism-disrupting lectins in grains (especially wheat, other gluten grains, and soy); fructose (often in the form of high fructose corn syrup, from grain); omega-6 fats and lectins in vegetable seed oils (also from grain); iron; and deficiencies of Vitamin D3, Vitamin K2 MK-4, copper, omega-3 fats, magnesium, and niacin. It is not yet clear whether carbohydrates in large amounts are inherently harmful, though they are clearly harmful to many people who have broken their metabolisms with grain products. (If there is a safe carbohydrate source, it is probably root vegetables.)

    Consumption of grains, vegetable seed oils, fructose, and carbohydrates has risen sharply, and intake of Vitamin K2 MK-4 has dropped, in response to official demonization of dietary saturated fat, causing increases of type 2 diabetes and obesity. The American Medical Association, the American Heart Association, the American Diabetes Association, and many other authorities have blood on their hands, and they will continue to lead us lambs into the slaughterhouse of grain poisoning until the culture of nutritional research is reformed.

    While I’ve been aware of these facts for some time, I now have a rigorous account to direct people to. Gary Taubes, in Good Calories, Bad Calories—his new exposé of what the scientific data really reveal…….

  62. Gail Combs says:

    Good article from Forbes:
    Coronavirus Could Be The End Of China As A Global Manufacturing Hub

    Something I have been thinking for a while.

  63. jim2 says:

    Red Meat!! :)

    “Essentially the entire problem we are having is due to panic, not the virus,” he said. “I was saying this six weeks ago. We have six deaths from the coronavirus, 18,000 from the flu. Why isn’t the message, ‘Get your flu vaccine'”?

    Pinsky, host of “Dr. Drew After Dark,” said the coronavirus impact has been milder than initially projected.

    “The entirety of the problem now is that people are being pushed into bankruptcy. Travel is down. The supply chain is being interrupted because of panic,” he reiterated.

    Donald Trump Jr. slams critics of the Trump administration’s response to coronavirusVideo

    “The flu virus is vastly more consequential and nobody is talking about that.”

    He said that people who are wearing respirator masks are engaged in “panic behavior” rather than preventative measures.

    “It is a press-induced panic that will have real consequences. It will not be the virus,” Pinsky said.


  64. Gail Combs says:

    E.M. said a flush can aerosolize a virus for 20 minutes when we learned the virus was in feces. Looks like he was off….

    …A toilet flush can release up to 80,000 polluted droplets and leave them suspended a metre in the air for hours if the lid is left up, a new study has found….

    ‘Social Distance’ is MORE THAN SIX FEET. the CDC is WRONG.
    New study:

    ….It was previously thought that the flu spreads mainly through large particles, or droplets, in the air that travel short distances, from 3 to 6 feet. But the new study showed most flu viruses are found in very small particles in the air, Bischoff said. Smaller particles can travel farther than larger ones, he said. Because the study did not look at distances beyond 6 feet, the researchers cannot say whether the flu virus can travel farther…

    Som where I saw 2 to 3 metres suggested as minimum social distance.

  65. jim2 says:

    I’ve been keeping an eye on Thailand. So far, there isn’t an explosion of cases. That may be a sign this variant will be seasonal. That will be a blessing for the Northern hemisphere as it will give us time to develop a vaccine and medicinals.

  66. David A says:

    Jim2, this is very much far worse then the common flu

  67. M Simon says:

    jim2 says:
    3 March 2020 at 1:06 pm

    It is amazing how easily the light on math people are fooled by geometric progressions. It is the last 4 doublings that kill you.

  68. Ossqss says:

    Seasonal flu kills between 290,000 and 650,000 people per year globally. Covid-19 is at 3,164 to date per worldometer. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    WHO fact sheet.


  69. Compu Gator says:

    News / Health
    New York man with novel coronavirus recently traveled to Miami. Florida [officials] just found out
    New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Tuesday morning announced that the state’s second confirmed case of the respiratory disease novel coronavirus, also known as COVID-19, was a 50-year-old man who works in Manhattan who had recently traveled to Miami-Dade County [×]. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ spokeswoman, Helen Ferre, said state health officials “immediately contacted” New York state officials “upon learning that an individual who works in Manhattan and has traveled to Miami has tested positive for COVID-19.” [#][×] “New York state officials did not alert Florida officials [×],” Ferre said. “DOH learned of this case when it was reported by the media.” Cuomo’s comments on the man’s travel history came in the context that he had not recently been to China, where the outbreak originated and is most concentrated. It’s unclear at this point whether the man, who lives in Westchester County, was contagious or showing symptoms when he was in Miami [×]. Later Tuesday, DeSantis said the state’s health department was working with New York officials on “doing what you do, tracing the contacts and trying to piece those together as part of the investigation.” “But we didn’t have any knowledge of that prior to that being announced by the press,” he reiterated.


    I can imagine Cuomo now: “New Yorkers need not worry; the newly confirmed case didn’t travel to China; he’s only been to Miami.” [×]

    Hmmm. To upscale waterfront high-rises (e.g., Brickell), or Little Havana?

    I suppose that patient used a round-trip passenger jet, and highway travel would use I-95, but it is a straight shot up the Florida Turnpike from Miami to Central Florida.

    Note #; Well, that was probably a heated phone call, somewhat like Trump has presumably had with bureaucrats in CDC.

    Note ×: E.M. won’t tolerate me insulting any identifiable class of people, so for now I’ll omit my feelings about New Yorkers in Florida, esp. whether real Floridans, um, need any more of them crossing our border.

  70. jim2 says:

    M Simon – Thailand has been at a stable number for a few weeks and we know the government there isn’t taking precautions. People are running around at night with not protection, going to bars and such.

  71. Compu Gator says:

    Please check your ‘held for review’ file for my attempted posting ca. 8 p.m. GMT (3 p.m. EST) today.

    Does WordPress assume that any posting from a Florida IPA that mentions both Florida and Noo Yawk in the same sentence might require review as a likely instance of forbidden hate speech”?

  72. llanfar says:

    Guess it’s about time for me to button up…

    First North Carolina novel coronavirus case confirmed in Wake County

  73. E.M.Smith says:


    I’ve given up trying to figure out how Worpress picks things to toss in SPAM. Some is particular words (I think..) one is a configurable number of embedded links (that I changed to a lot more than the default 3) , and part, I think, is a “voted off the island” counter. So if you advocate for, say, Trump, on a few lefty blogs, and their admins flag it as SPAM, then eventually you get tossed to SPAM elsewhere too (unless and until those admins mark it as “not SPAM”).

    But who knows…

  74. David A says:

    Seasonal flu vs Cov19.
    1. The Cov19 has an R-naught at least double the flu.
    2. Cov19 is likely at least 50 plus times as fatal. ( 5.0 percent vs 1/10 of one percent.)
    3. Flu is pre-existent globally. Cov19 started about two months ago in patient one, in about 2 square feet of space.
    4. Over centuries the population has developed a natural immunity to many flu viruses, there is likely zero immunity to this.
    5. Cov19 is cause to a far higher percentage of the infected going to the hospital, and staying in the hospital far longer. ( Cov19 quickly overwhelms hospitals decreasing ER care for all emergency medical needs.)

    Treat Cov19 like the flu, and global panic will do far more damage then quarantines and travel restrictions.

  75. M Simon says:

    Note the link address.

    Can VITAMIN C beat coronavirus? It boosts brains, combats sepsis and tackles colds… no wonder China’s doctors are racing to test its effects on deadly outbreak

  76. David A says:

    Oh, and number 6
    Nations are far more likely to give about real Cov19 cases and fatalities, then they are about the flu.

  77. E.M.Smith says:

    Looks like 5 more deaths in Washington.

    The exponential is rising there…

  78. M Simon says:

    jim2 says:
    3 March 2020 at 8:37 pm

    Thailand seems to be an odd case. I wonder why.

  79. jim2 says:

    Thailand is near the Equator and warm, so it may be that the virus isn’t surviving in warmer climes.

  80. E.M.Smith says:

    My guess would be that the locals are not tested, so low symptom cases being called a chest cold, sniffles, or the flu ; while bad cases just die or get called pneumonia.

    Then the tourists are back home before they get symptoms.

  81. E.M.Smith says:

    Another thing that we can thank Obama for. Late and few test kits.

    Under Obama and his attempt to take over health care, was when the FDA asserted control over who can make new test kits. THAT is why kit approval was bottlenecked. Prior to Obama: labs, hospitals, universities could just make a new one as needed.

    Rule temporarily paused now so lots can now be made. Maybe they need to just end that rule. It has not improved things.

  82. jim2 says:

    EMS – locals in most countries aren’t tested AFAIK. So that doesn’t account for no explosion of cases. I supposed the gov’t there could just not report cases, but it seems some quasi-governmental organization would snitch. Africa and S.A. also have relatively few cases.

    Time will tell.

  83. jim2 says:

    FWIW – here’s a Tai medial news site:


  84. ossqss says:

    We should have a good understanding of things in the US by the weekend or early next week. Stated, 1 Million test kits have been or being sent out. Regardless of the actual number, we will have a bunch of real and visible data very soon. A bunch.

    Get ready for it either way. Just sayin… we broke 80 countries today. No blocking every flight from everywhere.

    Now a poll for the group.

    There were no disinfecting wipes available at any major (Sam’s, BJS, Wallyworld) store here near SRQ today. What would your next step be in making some? Bleach, or Vinegar solution, Windex? BE aware you don’t want to mix some of those potential ingredients.

    I don’t need it myself yet, but think some may benefit from the knowledge. So there ya go. :-)

  85. cdquarles says:

    Wash with soap and water. Pool tablets or concentrated chlorine bleach diluted in water to wipe surfaces. Follow with alcohol. Where I am, the regular flu has run its course. You can still get wipes and high concentration alcohol just fine. (A reminder, the regular flu has sporadic outbreaks throughout the year. It is only the epidemic part that is seasonal. The regular flu is a zoonotic virus and while this coronavirus is relatively novel, coronaviruses, as such, aren’t.)

  86. E.M.Smith says:

    I carry a “used” wipe or paper towel along with a bottle of 70% or better rubbing alcohol in one car. I pour a bit of alcohol in one hand (holding it over the towelette so drips get caught) set the bottle down, and rub hands together. Then the now wet towelette is used to wipe bottle, cap, and any other surface needing it.

    I have a couple of bottles of bleach. Mix about 10 water to one bleach for strong disinfectant. Less strong ought to work too.
    Recommends a 1/2 cup to the gallon for “non food surfaces”. So 128: 4 or 32 : 1 ratio

    I have a bottle of hydrogen peroxide in the bathroom. Pour a bit in the cupped palm and rub over hands.

    Iodine solution works very well but will leave you brown and smelling funny ;-)

    Pool chemicals include chlorine based disinfectants. Hot tub tablets are a less volatile bromine equivalent. Similarly chlorine “pool shock”. Very concentrated and if not diluted enough will tend to remove skin… just like full strength bleach.

    Then there are the UVC lights Larry L recommended (hope we hear he’s OK…) and ozone some of them make (or electric arcs make … controlling concentration a bit hard with ersatz arcs…)

    There’s a lot of other stuff you can make or buy that ought to work but won’t be officially approved. Everclear or 151 Rum “overproof” meets the 70%+ level. Pinesol. Lye soap in hot water works a champ (but it’s been a while since I made any) and if “fresh” is rough on skin too :-)

    Listerine and Lysol both claim to kill germs (get the original Listerine, not the flavored stuff with ingredients left out)

  87. Compu Gator says:

    Oh, boy! The Tampa Bay Times is displaying a banner ad promoting a “Tampa Bay Boat Show” this weekend (Mar. 6–8). Not only is it open to the public (i.e., not restricted to “the industry”), but it’s also touting free admission!

    So where are most boat motors and jet skis manufactured nowadays, hmmm? And marine electronics? What a great opportunity to generate a beeeg storm of asymptomatic transmission along the Florida West Coast!

    Has Miami hosted its annual boat show yet?

  88. E.M.Smith says:

    The bssic problem is that the CDC is being reactive instead of proactive. To stop a virus with long incubation, asymptomatic transmission, and many low symptom cases with R0 between 2 and 6: youbsimply cannot be reactive only.

    It will blow right past you.

    To stop it now would require lots of shutdowns and quaranteened neihhborhoods. No politician or government lacky will be willing to advocate for that, IMHO.

  89. Foyle says:

    I have young kids, and I am thinking that a seal-able container of methanol (methylated spirits) to dip their hands in would be a good idea, or appropriately diluted bleach.

    Rant: My f**k-wit government (NZ) has failed to institute border quarantining and now we have 1st 2 cases in last 3 days, who have both been wandering unimpeded around airports and other places etc after returning feeling sick from Iran and Italy respectively (when we had so much warning of outbreaks). Flu season starts soon. I now expect that 2-5% of kiwis, and several members of my extended family will die over next 1-2 years as a result of idiots in charge not reacting fast enough (the same as the rest of the world) when we had a great chance of avoiding that with better governance. So so angry and mystified at just how complacent western politicians and their advisers appear to be – paralyzed in inaction when confronted by exceptional circumstances, unable to adapt their thinking to dangerous realities, and basically just criminally stupid/negligent in abrogating the role we elect them for – guarding our interests. They are as a breed awful at risk management in rapidly changing situations – we need people with combat experience to make unpopular and occasionally wrong decisions quickly.

  90. M Simon says:

    The wife bought 3 qts. of 91% methanol at Walmart yesterday. (About 10 hours ago.) She said there was plenty. No hand sanitizers. And some shelves not stocked. (very unusual).

  91. E.M.Smith says:

    @M. Simon:

    I think you meant 91% iso-propanol, yes?

    Driving across the country, l checked several stores for methanol for fuel and rubbing alcohol (both 70% and 91% propanol). The pattern seemed to be places with known cases sold out of propanol, next State over, fully stocked. Methanol in gallons at hardware stores outside California. Often even sold out places had lots of hydrogen peroxide on the shelf. Across the south, lots of propanol very cheap (so I bought a few quarts :-)

  92. Bill In Oz says:

    EM I remember reading that you were going into soft lockdown last Saturday
    And by now into complete lockdown.

    You are ahead of us here in Oz.
    Do you have any thoughts or suggestions to pass on for those about to do it ?

  93. tom0mason says:

    Interesting show from Alex Jones …
    “EXCLUSIVE: Pentagon Told To Prepare For National Emergency – FULL SHOW 3/3/20
    Mar 3, 2020
    The Alex Jones Show

    Tune in for exclusive details on this national emergency over the horizon! Watch as we reveal exclusive details on the soon-to-be-announced national emergency by FEMA. Tune in! ”

    And the figure stated on the show is that over time up to 3 million could be dead from coronavirus.

  94. jim2 says:

    On the subject of isopropyl alcohol. A good way to conserve is to NOT remove the plastic seal under the lid. Instead, get a large map pin and punch one hole in the center of the seal. You can then dispense the liquid in a small stream, using only what you need. Also, if tipped over, it won’t spill much. And if the lid is left off, evaporation is limited.

  95. Quail says:

    The local Office Depot has wipes and other cleaning supplies still on the shelf, and the craft stores have gloves.

  96. E.M.Smith says:

    @Bill In Oz:

    Not much yet. I broke lockdown to vote, and also to do some banking (not everything is on line… like moving money from investment account to bill paying account via check…), so plan for those two.

    Trying to prevent cross contamination of bank card, wallet, check book, disinfectant wipe, check to deposit; while wiping the ATM keyboard is NOT easy.

    It is boring. Yes, there are various media, but…. Having a yard, garden, sun is a big plus. Lack of activity is oppressive, so garden digging time helps. Longer term, I’m likely to occasionally just drive around a little every few weeks.

    The spouse discovered the things like jerky and trail mix that snack well. While I moved on to adding the cheaper less interesting bulky items like ramen cups and lentils; she was snacking… so we now are very low on jerky and trail mix. So keep an inventory record even when still building the stores. Otherwise expect to eat a lot of unadorned ramen and lentils.

    I’m planning to use coconut oil in dishes like Kraft Mac ‘n Cheese instead of butter. I don’t know how well that’s going to work. I know condensed milk from cans works OK in cooking. Paying attention to the little things in your cooking matters. Spices, dairy, syrups, etc.

    Dry fruit bags are great. (As long as the spouse doesn’t find them…) Stores well, dense, and tasty. Canned meats work well. Both are a bit pricey compared to carbs rich beans & rice. The keto diet has been pitched out for the duration as I didn’t want to buy $1000 of SPAM, Tuna, and Corned Beef…

    Beans flavored with a little SPAM and boulion cubes is very nice. Rice with curry lentils on top is very nice. Don’t have curry powder or know how to make it? Hope you like ketchup…

    Doing a soft lockdown early is very useful for finding and fixing those ommissions.

  97. tom0mason says:

    I’ve just seen in a store near me half liter bottles of mouthwash that contains Chlorhexidine Gluconate in a water and alcohol solution. The shop is closing down so the price good.
    I see that “Chlorhexidine gluconate is a germicidal mouthwash that reduces bacteria in the mouth. ” but is it stable enough to be used as a general purpose sanitizer or handwash?

  98. tom0mason says:

    Oops left out the important detail — it’s only 0.2% w/v concentration.
    I find the wiki on it confusing as it says in different places that it could, might, maybe, definitely is/is not useful. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chlorhexidine

  99. E.M.Smith says:


    I think the key bit is:

    CHG does not meet current European specifications for a hand disinfectant. Under the test conditions of the European Standard EN 1499, no significant difference in the efficacy was found between a 4% solution of chlorhexidine digluconate and soap

    Given that a 4% solution doesn’t measure up to soap, 0.2% will be nearly useless in comparison.

  100. E.M.Smith says:

    FWIW, my backup hand disinfectant is 2 jugs of bleach. Whenever the peroxide and alcohol get low, I’m swapping to 1/4 cup bleach per quart of water. Last quart of 91% propanol set aside for use in the car should I need to go out again after things are bad.

    I’ve got eye protection and 6 n95 masks, so spouse and I can do 3 outside runs each (before resorting to my gas mask ;-) I plan to set used masks in the sun for a few days, then chlorine / chlorite gas in a box, then stored for absolute last ditch Aw Shit. I’ll likely test how one of them responds to an alcohol saturation. Does the fiber disintegrate?

    I’m hoping this is over before I need to go that far…

  101. E.M.Smith says:

    I get Friday sushi in these nice plastic containers with transparent tops. I washed and reused them as mini-sprouters. Folded wet paper towel in the bottom, sprinkle on seeds. Cover and set in a warm place.

    Well, sprouting was way fast. Today I planted out very small lettuce, radishes and Lincoln Peas. The 8 ball squash, and green beans (Violetto) have yet to sprout, which is good, as I don’t have dirt ready… The Chioga beets sprouted and get planted out tomorrow.

    Why not direct seed?

    I get to see what germination rate is.
    Germination is much higher.
    I can start much earlier.
    It goes faster.

    Only thing wrong is it is a pain to hand place the sprouts in the dirt… tedious detail, but works.

    First started doing this when testing old seeds and they sprouted… Waste not want not… so planted them. Then it turned out I was getting most of a garden that way…

    Today I started cleaning up the hydroponics trays, too. I figure in a week or two I’ll start setting them up again.

    One nice thing about California: I have nearly year round gardening if I want it.

  102. ossqss says:

    So, I am searching for more confirmation on the mutated virus type (aggressive one) from the original? Anyone seeing legit verification on this? I don’t yet trust much coming out of China to date.

    I suspect we will see very significant stats from testing returns in the US over the next several days as the base results come in. Question would be, if there are 2 now, does the test cover both?



  103. jim2 says:

    EMS – I believe that should be 1/4 cup bleach per gallon of water, not quart of water.

    Here is a good article on that, plus bleach degradation with temperature.

    Click to access disinfection-with-bleach-tech-talk.pdf

    and more on bleach as a disinfectant:

    Click to access Guidelines-for-Using-Bleach-updated.pdf

  104. E.M.Smith says:


    At 23 minutes, has citation on the slide. L and S type:

    He’s a gold bug, but also a Ph.D. pathology….


    Desired or effective ratio can span a big range. From a few drops per gallon if you are going go drink it to much stronger for surfaces.

    1/4 cup is 2 ounces. A quart is 32 ounces. 16 : 1 ratio. More dilute than the 10 : 1 commonly recommended for non-food surfaces (note that’s rough on skin…).

    2 ounces per gallon is 64 : 1 and fairly dilute. I think that’s likely the food surfaces dilution.

    So 10:1 for strong surface disinfectant (wear gloves)
    16:1 less rough on hands, still works.

    For drinking water, 1/4 tsp : 4 gallons. Let it sit 30 min. And air out if too much chlorine smell. (Assuming 8% bleach but 6% also exists so check concentration and NO SCENT in it!)

  105. Bill In Oz says:

    E M thanks for those tips on soft lockdown. Banking here I can do all online except for getting cash from an ATM…
    We still have a list of necessities to get..More rice ( as you said less keto for a while ) and dairy..more gloves, batteries, etc.
    For us tango is important : a major social activity. And we are cancelling out from today…So like you I will probably be doing a lot of gardening. It’s time for Winter things to go in now anyway.

  106. E.M.Smith says:

    @Bill In Oz:

    For dairy, both butter and cheese freeze well (though slices like cheddar tend to break when being pulled off the stack).

    Canned milk comes in two kinds. Sweetened condensed, good in milky sweet tea, and condensed evaporated, good for cooking. Powdered milk is a lot cheaper, keeps a long time, and is not as nice a flavor lacking in fats. I have some of each.

  107. H.R. says:

    For the Bloodborne Pathogens Response (BPR) program OSHA requires, our small manufacturing enterprise had a relatively simple program compared to the healthcare industry.

    Any blood spilled on the floor was sprayed with a 10% bleach/water solution, left to sit a minute or two, and then cleaned up by someone wearing gloves*. That waste was OK to just trash – considered non-hazardous!

    I was the one who had to set up our BPR program and I was assured by the OSHA bureaucrat that I checked with, to assure we were compliant, that the 10% bleach solution would kill everything, including hepatitis and HIV viruses.

    I don’t think many, if any nasty bugs tolerate alkalinity very well.

    *The glove thingy was just to prevent accidental contact with untreated blood while trying to clean up.

  108. E.M.Smith says:

    IIRC, 10% bleach oxidizes and disassembles any living thing… given enough time.

  109. tom0mason says:

    Thanks for pointing out the salient part of that Wiki I referenced. So back to getting household bleach and peroxide.

  110. Gail Combs says:

    E.M. I use powdered milk to make no-salt cocoa in the winter. Left over goes into freezer pouches and then into the freezer over the summer. Same for lamb and kid milk replacer. If you do not freeze it goes sour.

    Thanks for the tip on freezing cheese. I had heard of it before but Hubby vetoed so now I will freeze MY favorites. We already freeze butter.

  111. E.M.Smith says:


    For cooking or shreds of cheese, freezing is great with no detectable effect. For creamier slices like American “cheese” (food product…) too. For other cheeses it makes them crumble or break easier.
    Like they are more frangible or brittle fracture works better. This usually shows up for me as slices that break. Especially cheddar or havarti. But they still make nice grilled cheese, cheeseburgers, or snacks. Mozzarella and Jack seem more resistant to the effect.

    I do this largely because a big package from COSTCO gets fuzzy before I can finish it otherwise. So I split it up to plastic tubs. Freeze half to 3/4, and move on.

  112. E.M.Smith says:


    2 points:

    Methanol does soak into skin and is toxic (to the point of blindness, deafness, and death). I have gotten it on skin and not had a problem, as it evaporates fast, but soaking in it is a bad idea. Use ethanol or iso-propanol 70% or better.

    Your comment at: https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/02/29/29-feb-2020-covid-19-lockdown/#comment-126091

    Sat in the trash bin for who knows how long due to the F-bomb (that I’ve sanitized). I don’t empty trash often and F-bombs go straight there due to certsin SPAM types having that signal. Your choice, but just pointing out the path they take…

  113. cdquarles says:

    @EM, Correct, if I am remembering correctly. NB that the process is similar to what happens inside peroxisomes. We have enzymes that activate oxygen, not quite to ozone; but just as powerful, aka superoxide radical. From that, hypochlorite and hydrogen peroxide get made. Add serine proteases and other chemicals. Also remember that human stomach acid is 0.1N hydrochloric acid (pH 1); which greatly reduces the numbers of bacteria (the mouth is full of them, though not quite to the numbers found in the large intestine), but doesn’t quite eliminate them.

  114. cdquarles says:

    Dang, I hope Larry is well.

    One of the issues that EMA folk have is dealing with human nature. Manic or panic is a thing, especially for crowds. In a fluid situation, where risk is unknown, it may be worse to incite a panic compared to the situation as it is, at a point in time. Decisions must be made under uncertainty. Hindsight is 20/20, they say; and in the USA that can get you sued, so even with the bureaucratic typical risk-averse nature, add rapacious class-action lawyers. You find yourself damned either way.

    In the old days, it was considered better to act first and get permission later. If your actions end up being on the plus side, you will get called a hero. If not .. oh well.

  115. E.M.Smith says:

    Yeah, I’m thinking maybe it’s time for me to ping his mail box… I hope he just got “called up” as an emergency responder type.

    Case in point, to your point: Some Canadians were just arrested off in some God Forsaken Hole where they were providing emergency medical care. Charges? Working without a local license and handing out “expired” medicines. Well, we all ought to know that recently expired medicine is vastly better than nothing, and, especially in emergencies, waving the local licence requirement is often the first step (See the new California Declaration of Emergency where they did just that).

    So think anyone looking at that particular country needing imported medical help will sign up double quick? Or will they just find a different country…

    March 1, 2020; Globe and Mail

    Ethiopian authorities detained a number of medical professionals and volunteers from Canadian Humanitarian for allegedly practicing medicine without the necessary permits and for distributing expired medicines.

    In an updated statement from March 3rd, Canadian Humanitarian confirms that “bail has been posted for the organization’s 10 Canadian volunteers, three Canadian staff, and two Ethiopian staff that have been detained in an Ethiopian prison in Gondar since February 29th.” The Canadians are still under investigation and therefore not allowed to leave the country.

    So just how many “medical professionals” will be saying “Nope!” or even “Hell NO!” to Ethiopia? I know I’m not going to volunteer for ANYTHING there.

  116. Ossqss says:

    I had sent you an email the other day concerning Larry, EM. I was not sure if that address was still legit or not.

  117. E.M.Smith says:

    It is a legit address, but as I replied before, I check it about once a quarter.

    I’ll get it when I connect to email to send something at Larry.

    It may be a horrible behavior on my part, but it is what I can do. Wading through thousands of spam messages does not make my day.

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