4 March 2020 Covid-19 Italy Closing Schools & India Keeping Drugs

Well, this is becoming a pattern.

India bans export of 28 generic drugs including antibiotics. India is one of THE big generic drug makers in the world. So active ingredients from China blocked, and finished drugs from India blocked. Hey, EU, how’s that Globalism interdependance and putting manufacturing is cheap countries looking to you now?

Dear CDC: Best get your ass in gear remaking the USA drug industry / capacity.
You have about a month…

Anyone with regular drugs used best buy a stock now. Aspirin, other NSAIDs, tetracycline, etc. are generics…

Italy has closed ALL schools and universities nation wide. Iran and S. Korea calling out the army for added help.

Hey, CDC, so how long did it take them to go from a cluster to a cluster fu..
That’s how long you have. Or less.


.
More stats, graphs, and a bit on Vit-D from a clueful M.D. Thesis that Vit-D might help avoid cytokine storms and protects in respiratory disease. May cut risk of infection in half with REGULAR supplements. Not big bolus.

Prior postings in the category: Covid

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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96 Responses to 4 March 2020 Covid-19 Italy Closing Schools & India Keeping Drugs

  1. cdquarles says:

    It makes sense that regular, and generally smaller doses, would work better with fat soluble vitamins. 1. you *can* poison yourself with them, slowly, by chronically overdosing (for you). 2. because they are fat soluble, they’ll partition into a larger volume of distribution that’ll buffer cell levels.

  2. E.M.Smith says:

    Looks like “social distancing” with school closures, no big gatherings, etc. Coming soon near me. He said 4 new cases of unknown origin in Santa Clara, so 4 sources on the loose and no contact trace possible.

    IFF this proceeds like Italy and S.Korea we will be seeing doubling every day or two.

    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/03/04/coronavirus-epidemic-united-states-gottlieb-squawk-box.html

    So a good measure of effectiveness of control is just how fast this blows up. Or doesn’t.

  3. E.M.Smith says:

    Germany bans export of medical protective gear…

  4. philjourdan says:

    Too much hysteria. So countries are hoarding.

  5. Bill In Oz says:

    @philjourdan : Not hysteria, these countries know stuff you don’t and are acting accordingly.

  6. E.M.Smith says:

    Since most of that gear is made in China, and China is:

    Shut down
    Running out
    Not making more for anyone else
    Not exporting any
    Called back orders / containers on ships in transit

    There’s a global shortage in the supply chain already. As pandemic drives demand exponentially higher, this will become critical. Masks, gowns, gloves must be changed with each patient in some settings, or every hour or 2 in others.

    It takes months to years to start new manufacture, and then it has a supply chain…

  7. Gail Combs says:

    The biggest problem are the people who will die not from the Wuhan Virus, but because of the overburdened medical system.

  8. E.M.Smith says:

    @Gail:

    BINGO!

    It isn’t just the covid folks. It’s the running out of medicines, the surgery that goes wrong from lack of PPE and tired staff, the delayed treatment that turns out a poor choice, the medical staff who get it due to fatigue and one PPE removal error ouf of 1000 times the ambulance driver who can’t unload as the ramp is being decontaminated so can’t take the next call in time, the ER death from lack of oxygen when the supply is over committed.

  9. Nancy & John Hultquist says:

    “Whether healthy or sick, please don’t lick!”

    The above from Washington State where voting by mail is the norm.
    Primary ballots are due March 8th.
    I saw a photo of a polling place, Tenn, I think, where lots of folks were in long lines and close together. Washingtonians see such images and shake their heads. Really, states are still doing that?!

  10. Sera says:

    You made me look up ‘rugular’ and ‘bolus’. Thanks.

  11. E.M.Smith says:

    @Sera: Hope you got a chuckle out of regular… I’ve fixed the typo. You can tell postings I do on the tablet by the funky spelling. The touch screen registration is off a bit so sometimes every word in a sentence is strange. I usually catch most of them.

    But bolus is a wonderful word. Big ol wad of stuff. Like that handfull of vitamins you almost managed to swallow, or when you try to cram the burger down in one go because the bell just rang… Ah, the days…

  12. Gail Combs says:

    Bolus…
    AHHHhhhh the memories.
    That large dose of medicine you force down a horse’s (or cow’s or sheep’s or goat’s) throat with a bolus gun.(And hope you hit the stomach and not the lungs…)

  13. E.M.Smith says:

    Mutation and evolution of SARS-COV-2 / Covid-19 into S and L forms:

  14. Under age 60 hardly anyone dies.
    Even for over 80s with other problems 85% recover.
    There comes a point where more deaths occur from disrupting supply chains for food and medicine than from the disease itself.
    The survival rate is such that, technically, there need be no economic disruption at all.

  15. David A says:

    Perhaps Steven, yet hospital overload will drive panic and far higher death rates. Without the quarantines the spread would be vastly greater, faster.

    Did you see the case in South Korea of one local sect from that national church group? 2000 in one group, 83 percent very quickly infected, about 600, or 33 percent, infected but asymptomatic. ( This is strong evidence of the lack of innate immunity in the population vs the flu) So the true R.O. without the quarantines, and a death rate of over 5 percent ( minimum)
    once hospitals are overwhelmed, means you cannot treat this as a regular flu. China did what they did for a reason. South Korea has now locked down in two cities.

  16. David A says:

    BTW, say you had a work force of 2000, and a flu went around that acted like this. Very quickly 70 percent plus of your entire workforce would be home sick. A regular flu, perhaps two would die. With this virus perhaps 100 would die, 400 very sick that need hospital beds that are N/A. Before it got that bad bad, those still feeling well would self quarantine. End result, economic shut down and a very high death rate.

    But I agree, do strong government actions and you get economic shutdown and fewer deaths. Not seeing good options here.

  17. E.M.Smith says:

    The Grand Princess:

    One person died of Covid-19.
    2500 people gof off and scattered to where ever.
    2500 more got on
    Test kits now being flown to the ship

    Why is anyone still on a cruise ship?…

  18. Nancy & John Hultquist says:

    It is not like regular influenza isn’t a problem.
    The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) calls it an “Annual Burden” (estimates):
    CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

    Note that in Washington State the care facility in Kirkland has been the main problem – approximately 100 elderly & many with prior health issues – with folks coming and going for weeks (?) before recognition. Kirkland first responders and police have been involved, now quarantined. Numbers change rapidly.
    Note #2: With the current emphasis on prevention there may be a positive result on the “regular” influenza burden.

  19. E.M.Smith says:

    What must be done is to flatten the epidemic case rate. Stretch it out, lower the curve, and slow the spread. Stop it if possible, but that looks unlikely now.

    Why? Because the fatality rate is 1-3% if you do. It rises to 15-20% as medical care ends availability. (Slowing it down also avoids blowing through your available protective gear then burning out / infecting your medical staff… 40% of cases were caught in hospital in China, many staff. Sick or dead staff can not provide care.)

    CFR Case Fatality Rate is not a constant .

    It is a variable you can change by reducing rate of new infections. Keeping it below saturation of medical facilities and staff.

    IF (or when…) this exponential blows through the ability to contact trace and isolate, not only does CFR blow up high, and your medical staff crumble, but your economy stops anyway since having streets lined with 34,000,000 dead Americans waiting for someone to burn or bury them is not conducive to employee attendance nor focus…

    Note: W.H.O. just announced CFR to date at about 3.4% and it is reasonably controlled with good medical care throughout the west. 20% of cases need ICU type support. I used 10% CFR above, which is a very reasonable worse case estimate. It could easily become 20%

    It would be FAR better to shut down the economy for 2 weeks and sort this out, than to blow out the medical sector (16% of the economy), kill 10% of your doctors and nurses (or more), kill another 5 to 20% of your population (and we don’t have capacity to dispose of the bodies..,) and THEN shut down the economy for a month or two, eventually returning at 10 to 25% lower capacity from labor shortages (“recovered” often means “not dead but too damaged to work”)

    ANY and EVERY delay in testing, isolating, and slowing this virus down is exponentially increasing damage. To people and to the economy.

  20. E.M.Smith says:

    Italy 3089 cases 107 dead CFR 3.5%

    Medical facilities “stressed”. That’s with only low thousands of cases. Think what happens at millions.

  21. E.M.Smith says:

    California declared State wide state of emergency:
    https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/03/04/governor-newsom-declares-state-of-emergency-to-help-state-prepare-for-broader-spread-of-covid-19/

    Oh lucky me….

    Provides money to local governments, out of State medical staff can work in State w/o California specific license, etc.

    Gee, sure glad I don’t need to go grocery shopping right now…. /snark;

  22. Compu Gator says:

    E.M.’s approved rendering “fu..” reminded me that we in Florida are about to be deluged by the annual mass-gathering to share pathogens from around the U.S.A., known as Spring Break. Is there any real reason to believe that the “breakers” will be newly cautious about health & safety for the occasion, or continue to behave in accord with their unshakable confidence in their own near-invulnerability?

    The scheduling of the seasonal break to fit the Christian liturgical calendar is a principle that was abandoned long ago. Some of the larger-enrollment schools Up North have mutual agreements to reduce overlapping of each school’s week off, so from the perspective of overwhelmed local residents, it’s not a matter of enduring only “1 week and done”. It probably won’t even be finished with the end of March in 2020, because Palm Sunday thro’ Easter is April 5–12.

    Here in blindly tourism-dependent Florida, the issue will often be “will CoV-19 hurt the tourism industry?“, and not “how can we keep Central Florida residents safe from becoming afflicted by a potential new national (epi)center of CoV-19 cases?” [*]:

    Could coronavirus in Florida hurt spring break travel? Officials aren’t worried yet.
    Two days after confirmation of the virus in Hillsborough County, tourism agencies haven’t seen many signs that travelers will stay away.
    By Jack Evans [·] Published Yesterday [·] Updated Yesterday

    [https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/03/03/could-coronavirus-in-florida-hurt-spring-break-travel-officials-arent-worried-yet/]

    I have no doubt that the coverage in the Orlando Sentinel will be even more unbalanced to the detriment of Central Florida’s actual residents.

    ——-
    Note *: Including the issues enumerated in E.M.’s excellent summary “5 March 2020 at 5:05 pm” [GMT]. [https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/03/04/4-march-2020-covid-19-italy-closing-schools-india-keeping-drugs/#comment-126143].

  23. E.M.Smith says:

    Video from a Truck Driver at Long Beach harbor showing mostly empty space and a few scattered stacks of (mostly empty) shipping containers. The “stuff” we get from China was shut off at the start of this event, and the ships at sea have unloaded and left. Now the containers at the port are moved out to warehouses and nothing new coming in. “What you have is what you’ve got.” Stores can’t re-stock without new stock and if it isn’t at the dock now, it won’t be there for a good long while.

    We grow a lot of food in the USA, so for us, food will still be around. All the stuff marked “Made In China” not so much… That will include things like auto repair parts ( I have a Chinese half-shaft in my Subaru and was going to replace the other one. Now that’s on hold for a few months. Glad I have a spare car…)

    So if there’s some device, part, or supplies you need that come from China, either buy it now in a store near you, or figure out how to do without until June or July. (Orders for resupply are being given a generic “June” date for fulfillment. Maybe…)

    Note that Long Beach is THE major port in Southern California from which shipments go by rail to the rest of the central / south USA (and sometimes further)

  24. Another Ian says:

    E.M.

    “Why is anyone still on a cruise ship?…”

    One reason – I talked to a person who is going to Borneo.

    I mentioned risk and the reply was “Yes but we can’t get our money back”.
    They are prepared for an extra two weeks at the “exotic Christmas Island” quarantine base if needed. – or the one outside Darwin.

  25. Ossqss says:

    I was sent this yesterday relating to cruses. Doh!

    I have several neighbors going in a few weeks. One with bad asthma. They did not care for the image.

  26. philjourdan says:

    @Bill in Oz – read my comment again. I did not say the countries were hysterical. I said there is hysteria, so countries are hoarding. Countries know there is hysteria. We also know that masks are virtually useless.

    You read something that I did not write. Just watch the news. THey are not interviewing world leaders on the 6pm news. They are interviewing the idiots wearing masks stampeding to buy hand sanitize. Hysteria.

  27. philjourdan says:

    @Gail – Double BINGO! And those will be attributed to the Wuhan virus just like the idiot who electrocutes cutting branches after a hurricane passes.

  28. jim2 says:

    * Generally warmer-than-average temperatures are expected in much of the nation through mid-March.
    * Some locations will enjoy their first 60s or 70s of the season this weekend.
    * Early March snow cover is the lowest in the U.S. in at least 16 years.
    * However, snow in March, April, even May is typical in some parts of the country.

    https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2020-03-04-spring-warmth-plains-midwest-northeast-south-west

  29. philjourdan says:

    Another thing about cruises – the average age of passengers is well above the national average. Why? Old folks have more disposable income. So the mortality rate will be higher on the front end.

  30. E.M.Smith says:

    @PhilJourdan:

    Masks are NOT USELESS. Otherwise medical staff would not use them.

    Masks are ESSENTIAL.

    BUT:

    They are of more value when scarce if used by medical staff, so the CDC wants to take them all and discourage competition. AND

    They must be used carefully and correctly. The CDC thinks you are too stupid to not touch the front, then your face, bend the metal band to fit your nose; and sanitize your hands before and after (and are likely right for 80% of the population). I worked on ward in hospital and know how to use one (and that they are required because they work).

    Now it you are in the 20%, value your life a lot, and got it from Home Depot off the shelf (where they would not be boxed up and sent to the CDC): A mask means that IF I must go out mid-pandemic I can likely go out and not get infected, without diminishing supply to medical staff. (Some guy sanding wood, not so much…)

    This matters a lot more to me than leaving a few masks on the shelf at the hardware store.

  31. philjourdan says:

    Qualifying my answer – Masks as used by the general population in response to the hysteria of the Corona virus are USELESS.

    So is a scalpel in their hands. That is not to say that in the right hands it is useless.

  32. ossqss says:

    I would agree on the point that masks will cause more issues than they help.

    I would wager, 90% of the people using them, don’t do it right, and will ultimately touch them in the end, and if in an exposed environment with concentrated sponge like properties of a mask, it will only add to the problems.

    Who out there is an expert at using something like that effectively in a pandemic scenario (let alone the “for purpose” use is opposite in medical environments)? 1-10%?

    In particular you probably needed to be using them a couple weeks ago in a perfect manner in the US if in exposed scenarios. As mentioned prior, the permeation factor is already well in play. Seeing snipets of SanFran coming issues in the background.

    I am hopeful the general base bug/genome vaccine from Israel helps.

  33. ossqss says:

    Interestingly enough, I just did an audit of the household health over the last month. My son had a cough/cold sinus thing several weeks ago. It has been pollen season here. Subsequently, both my wife and myself had similar symptoms for a couple days afterwards. I wonder, did we did the cycle already?

    Crap, could I have been a super spreader?

    Upon speaking to my Son, he suggested tickets to Disney, Busch Gardens or other parks as they are close to empty now down here. Keep in mind, I have not vetted that 14 year old’s social media data, but think the logic would be in place. Who would be ordering tickets for a cruise, Orlando parks, or a China trip at this point in time anyhow? Could I qualify? I don’t think so! (LL Cool J, just now on my laptop).

  34. Gail Combs says:

    Dr Ding is worth following:

    Response tweet:

  35. Gail Combs says:

    Who is Dr Eric Ding?
    He says: “Public health scientist / Epidemiologist / Harvard ‘07 (Epidemiology & Nutrition), JohnsHopkins ‘04 / 15yrs HSPH&HMS / Pharma whistleblower”

    Epidemiology is the study and analysis of the distribution (who, when, and where), patterns and determinants of health and disease conditions in defined populations. So the spread of the virus is his field of study. (He should have Nancy Messonnier’s job.)

    This is a Classic…

  36. E.M.Smith says:

    I wish I could feel more sympathy for the Congress Critters suddenly discovering that speed is critical in Public Health epidemics.. but remind me again how long who sat on the “emergency funding” bill trying to cram pork and ideological advantages into it?

    What goes around…. eventually gets to them, too.

  37. Gail Combs says:

    Do not forget it was an Obama/Clinton appointee who has been sitting on the test kits all this time while the South Koreans have drive-in testing.

    Washington State is the perfect example of the outcome of the CDCs REFUSAL TO QUARANTINE OR TEST

    CDC had run just 426 tests from Jan 21 to Feb 24

    — BUT 746 people in Washington state, under supervision for coronavirus were released as ‘cleared’ Using defective test kits? Using a 1/2 kit? No test?

    February 19, 2020 – …. the CDC said it will begin testing individuals with influenza-like-illness (ILI) for COVID-19 at public health labs in San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, Seattle, and New York City.
    Note Washington State was NOT included despite one known case in the state at that time.

    Breaking: Washington [state] officials say they are not going to be testing all cases. They will need to triage the most high-risk and most sever #Coronavirus patient. The public is going to need to accept this and realize they will need to prepare and accept various NPI measures.

    From the UK Groniad
    *https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/03/coronavirus-washington-state-deaths-testing

    ….Jeannette Jameson, 61, a criminal defense lawyer, told the Guardian that she had been sick for about a month when her doctor suggested she go to an emergency room to be tested for the virus….

    ….Jameson said she never saw a doctor, and after testing negative for flu and being given a chest X-ray, she was discharged with papers that said she had “some non-specific respiratory virus”, along with prescriptions for ibuprofen and acetaminophen.

    When she asked why she wasn’t given a test for coronavirus, she said that a nurse practitioner told her she could only get tested if she was admitted to the hospital with severe symptoms….

    Jameson asked about the coronavirus test, she said the registered nurse practitioner told her: “You should be glad you don’t have influenza because that’s worse than coronavirus.”

    The death rate for coronavirus is much higher than for the flu.

    A frustrated Jameson later said she told the nurse: “This is like a third-world country.” The nurse responded: “Now you’re just being dramatic.”….

    So yes, Washington State is continuing the CDC’s policy of NOT TESTING anyone unless they are critically ill.

  38. cdquarles says:

    Re hospital beds in the USA, the politicians have, for years, been actively limiting the numbers available and the general policies have resulted in the net loss of them over the years. Within my state of residence, we had a hospital close recently. Said hospital is in a small county of some 22,000. Now, they’ll have to travel 30 to 60 miles to receive hospital based care.

  39. E.M.Smith says:

    I was born in a small but competent hospital in my little farm town. Last time I was there it had been turned into a “clinic” and patients needing a bed shipped via ambulance 30 miles away. Don’t know what they did to the surgical suites…. The town is now larger than when I lived there and with more sick & injured looking for services.

    IMHO, driven by political manipulation by interest groups to increase revenues. (In step with hospital “rollups” by medical corporation groups).

  40. E.M.Smith says:

    Well, we’re over 100k now

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Coronavirus Cases: 100,779
    Deaths: 3,412
    Recovered: m55,997

    USA 239 +18 14 +2 210 15 8

    Gee, seems likevonlyblast week the USA was under 100…

    So 210 out of 239 active cases, only 15 recovered. 18 new cases, 14 dead and 2 new dead. 8 serious is goid, but how msny of the active will become serious?

  41. Ossqss says:

    We are getting vetted data now on some aspects. I also noticed the mild symptom stat on active cases has reached 85% vs 15% severe/critical.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

  42. Gail Combs says:

    Seems NYC is going bonkers.

    2,700 NYC RESIDENTS QUARANTINED
    *https://nypost.com/2020/03/05/over-2700-nyc-residents-quarantined-in-homes-over-coronavirus-fears/

    NYC PREPS FOR MAYHEM
    *https://www.thedailybeast.com/new-york-city-is-prepping-for-coronavirus-mayhem

    DOUBLE IN 24 HOURS: 22 CONFIRMED CASES
    *https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/2-more-covid-19-cases-in-ny-brings-total-to-13-community-spread-eyed-in-possible-nj-case-as-state-awaits-tests/2313298/

    4 IN NYC
    *https://nypost.com/2020/03/05/coronavirus-in-nyc-two-more-cases-confirmed-in-city-bringing-total-to-4/

    3 NYC TEACHERS TESTED
    *https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/education/ny-teacher-italy-coronavirus-test-20200305-h5hq2azubjdd7frpdyil7uxcie-story.html

    2 MANHATTAN PREP SCHOOLS CLOSE
    *https://nypost.com/2020/03/06/two-manhattan-prep-schools-close-over-coronavirus-concerns/

    (Hadn’t thought of this.)
    BLOOD DRIVE CANCELLATIONS THREATEN SUPPLY
    *https://nypost.com/2020/03/05/blood-drive-cancellations-amid-coronavirus-outbreak-poses-significant-threat-to-supply/
    …………

    TOO LITTLE TOO LATE…

  43. S.T. Taylor says:

    It’s not their fault…

  44. Gail Combs says:

    3 Have Coronavirus; MD Governor Declares State Of Emergency
    https://www.wbaltv.com/article/three-confirmed-cases-of-coronavirus-maryland/31206429

    “…Officials said the group returned to the states on Feb. 20 and within 12 days took themselves to an area hospital for treatment after developing symptoms.

    Their test results came back Thursday from the state’s lab in east Baltimore, confirming their coronavirus diagnoses, officials said.

    Officials said all three are being self-quarantined at their homes….”

    Governor then says go about your business no need to worry.

    “…”While today’s news may seem overwhelming, this is not a reason to panic. Marylanders should go to work and go to school as they usually do. At the same time, I want to continue to remind everyone to prepare themselves, and to continue to stay informed,” Hogan said….”
    ………

    MONTGOMERY COUNTY is right next to District of Columbia. (60% white)

    From WIKI

    “…As one of the most affluent counties in the United States,[8] Montgomery County also has the highest percentage (29.2%) of residents over 25 years of age who hold post-graduate degrees.[9] The county has been ranked as one of the wealthiest in the United States.[10][11] Like other inner-suburban Washington, D.C. counties, Montgomery County contains many major U.S. government offices, scientific research and learning centers, and business campuses, which provide a significant amount of revenue for the county….”

    Well that is going to set the cat among the pigeons!

  45. Gail Combs says:

    Ossqss,
    That percentage is dropping. The first I noted it was 18% serious/critical. Yesterday it was 16% and now it is 15%.

  46. Gail Combs says:

    I do not know if you guys have seen this.
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S6

    Some interesting bits and pieces from:
    Key Updates for Week 8, ending February 22, 2020

    ♦️ CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 32 million flu illnesses, 310,000 hospitalizations and 18,000 deaths from flu.

    So how many tested? Less than 5% (Remember many with the Wuhan virus are not hospitalized)
    948,064 specimens tested for the season
    190,362 (20.1%) positive for flu viruses for the season

    “A total of 15,319 laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalizations were reported by FluSurv-NET sites between October 1, 2019 and February 22, 2020; 10,439 (68.1%) were associated with influenza A virus, 4,797 (31.3%) with influenza B virus, 47 (0.3%) with influenza A virus and influenza B virus co-infection, and 36 (0.2%) with influenza virus for which the type was not determined.

    >>>>>>>>>>>

    The next week is interesting:
    Key Updates for Week 9, ending February 29, 2020
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S8

    “…Rates in school aged children and young adults are higher than at this time in recent seasons, and rates among children 0-4 years old are now the highest CDC has on record at this point in the season, surpassing rates reported during the second wave of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.…”

    If you look for that passage, just below is a graph I can not copy and paste. It shows the last 10 years with this season shooting up to the #2 spot for Cumulative Rate of lab Confirmed Influenza Hospitalizations per 100,000 Population

    This is also interesting (2 graphs.)
    https://beaumontlaboratory.com/docs/default-source/hcp-resources/rvs-weekly-updates/rvs-2020/rvs_2020_week9.pdf?sfvrsn=ddb2187e_2

  47. Gail Combs says:

    Well we knew sooner or later some idiot would ‘go there’

    Times UK: Coronavirus can trigger a new industrial revolution:
    The disease could be the shock we need to harness new technology and new ways of working

    …. if you were a young, hardline environmentalist looking for the ultimate weapon against climate change, you could hardly design anything better than coronavirus.

    Unlike most other such diseases, it kills mostly the old who, let’s face it, are more likely to be climate sceptics. It spares the young. Most of all, it stymies the forces that have been generating greenhouse gases for decades. Deadly enough to terrify; containable enough that aggressive quarantine measures can prevent it from spreading. The rational response for any country determined to prevent loss of life is to follow China’s lead and lock down their economy to stem its spread…..

  48. E.M.Smith says:

    @Ilafar:

    The 5g correlation is interesting, but has two giant confounders:

    Areas,with early 5g rollout,will be richer, so travel much more., swapping germs in the process.

    Areas with lots of 5g will have many more people indoors,on computers and TVs and NOT in the sun making Vit-D.

    Those will matter more to the virus.

  49. E.M.Smith says:

    @Gail:

    S. Korea will give us good answers. They havectested 140,000 IIRC. Finding lits of liw symptom folks in the process AND resulting in a CFR of about 0.6% WAY lower than anyone else.

    Now that may be from finding so many cases early before the worst hits, or it may be the real CFR and everyone else is missing a huge number of low symptom cases.

    So very worth keeping an eye on…

  50. David A says:

    I agree there are several factors affecting South Korea’s CFR.
    Yes, better testing, testing of asymptomatic as well. ( So a younger infection age mean) Also, unfortunately this results in greater exponential growth.

    Average time to death once symptomatic is about 14 days. Go back 14 days and South Korea had almost zero cases. So the ones that die before then are the most susceptible to Cov19.

    The above would then reflect in the cured rate, making it low. And it is, I think about 140. About 30 percent CFR death to cured. This is of course very high.

    Fortunately for the world South Korea has a control group. 2000 members of one denomination of that church group.
    From that they can get a truer RO, and in about two to three weeks an accurate CFR.

  51. Gail Combs says:

    Japan has some interesting news via Reddit.
    “…Translation of NHK story:

    “The Japanese Association for Infectious Diseases (JAID) have published a report on their website detailing the symptomatic improvement and recovery seen following administration of inhaler-type medication used in the treatment of asthma to patients suffering from pneumonia as a result of the novel coronavirus.

    The report is being published to the JAID website by a group which includes Kanagawa prefectural Ashigarakami hospital, one of the facilities that has carried out treatment on passengers of the cruiseliner Diamond Princess, which saw a mass outbreak of the novel coronavirus.

    According to the report three patients suffering pneumonia and confirmed by PCR testing to be infected with the novel coronavirus were administered, upon their consent, an immunosuppressive inhaled steroid Ciclesonide typically used in the treatment of asthma.

    Of the three all were over the ages of 65, and though not in critical condition all were receiving supplemental oxygen. However, after Ciclesonide treatment was administered on February 20th, noticeable improvements were seen within two days and a 73-year-old female patient has since been discharged in good health.

    The clinical group has stated choosing the treatment protocol based on information received from the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, with the hope that by aerosol delivery it will prove effective in suppressing the severe inflammation in the lung tissue where the virus prevalently grows.

    The group says that their findings can’t yet be fully evaluated with the small number of patients, and plans to partner with other healthcare facilities going forward to investigate the results further.”

    *https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/fcohpi/japanese_clinical_group_publishes_case_studies/

  52. Gail Combs says:

    On the OH RATS front!

    North Carolina has another case. A guy who went to Italy came down with symptoms. After his fever went down, flew to NC and then to Georgia. The woman he visited in GA got sick and was tested so GA notified NC. They tracked him down to Chatham county.
    So we now have two contagious idiots wandering around for upwards of 10 days or so. OH and the guy in Raleigh went to a restaurant, the SO-CA restaurant in Cameron Village. It is within walking distance of the NC nurses association and four different banks. It was a good four days before the restaurant closed and sanitized.

    I hope like heck the idiots (Obama groupies) in the NC health dept TEST THE WAIT STAFF et al.

    Now I have a county north and a county south of where I am doing a gig tomorrow. Can’t talk hubby out of it so it is WE WILL NOT TOUCH the kids — NOT negotiable. NO sick kids, no touching the kids and outdoors. SANITIZE ALL EQUIPMENT. Carry gloves, soap, water and dilute Clorox with us. Take a zinc tab under the tongue on the drive home. ALL clothes directly into the washer and sanitize shoes/boots.

    This looks like it is going to put a big dent in my spring income.

  53. E.M.Smith says:

    @Gail:

    Welcome to my world. 20 cases confirmed in my county, community transmission, poor testing rules, 2000 folks dumped off a plague ship 50 miles north of me, and kids think me paranoid.

    No, not paranoid. Just know history. And can do math.

  54. David A says:

    “I also noticed the mild symptom stat on active cases has reached 85% vs 15% severe/critical”

    Interesting. Most of China’s cases are older ( what they are reporting anyways) and so perhaps the curve there is declining. OTOH, the ROW cases are young and entering exponential growth, hospital then fatalities follow. ( See South Korea as an example) Hospitalization is now increasing in South Korea, while China’s serious / critical population declines. decline, on paper at least. We have no clue what is happening in those makeshift hospitals and group quarantine locations. And they allow nobody in to see and talk to the people there.

    So perhaps a decline in serious critical in China, while the ROW may be increasing. Time will tell. Only two ways off the critical list…

  55. ossqss says:

    You know, I am not at high predisposition risk and have gotten to the point of “I don’t care” anymore.

    I have reached the hype is worse than the problem phase.

    So here ya go! :-)

  56. ossqss says:

    Think about it.

  57. jim2 says:

    @Gail –

    Bleach solutions should be stored in opaque containers and must be made fresh at a minimum of every 24 hours. Bleach rapidly degrades in the presence of light and when mixed with water.

    Click to access Guidelines-for-Using-Bleach-updated.pdf

  58. Bill In Oz says:

    EM I think that there is Corona Virus issue in Denver.

    Here is Oz we have just found out that doctor returned to Melbourne Australia on the 29th of Feb from Denver in USA. Despite having a runny nose during the flights he went back to his practice last Monday & treated over 70 people before being diagnosed with COVID 19 on Friday….

    So more Corona Virus chaos unleashed !

    But it seems he got it in Denver or close by. So was he on holiday skying in the area or at a medical conference in the area ?

    But I have not seen any references to Corona virus in Denver !

  59. E.M.Smith says:

    May the highly “social” political class proceed me!

  60. Bill In Oz says:

    More info about this infectious doctor: He is reported to be 70 years old and the lead doctor at a clinic in Toorak in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs. I spent many years in Melbourne decades ago. Toorak is one of the most well heeled areas in Australia.. So I suspect we may see some very well heeled & influential locals being tested & diagnosed with this virus.

  61. Another Ian says:

    E.M.

    See what this does to your maths

    “The story of the 25 year old British man who had Coronavirus last November in Wuhan”

    http://joannenova.com.au/2020/03/the-story-of-the-25-year-old-british-man-who-had-coronavirus-last-november-in-wuhan/

  62. Bill In Oz says:

    Here is a link to the full story in the Daily Mail. The full story is even worse than Jo tells it.
    An almost daily account of his sickness in NOVEMBER 2019 when no one knew it was a new Corona Virus starting to spread. And yes he loved going to the wet market !

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8075633/First-British-victim-25-describes-coronavirus.html?ito=facebook_share_article-floating_navigation&fbclid=IwAR0rDA6rUnkpys9v3qorGYiJqDkWST-oqQxV90IoCyrEB77Sdeam49qNhXM

  63. Gail Combs says:

    jim2,
    I use t an old bleach bottle which is opaque.
    Thanks for the tip on the 24 hour rule. I have been using my ‘nasal chronograph’ If I can’t smell the bleach I dump some more in.

    Generally I use the bleach solution to sanitize reused soda bottles after washing. I put my home made ice tea and lemonade in them. I dilute the bleach because I have a well & septic and I do not want to dump a lot of bleach into my septic system & leach field.

    I put 1 1/2 inches of tea, lemonade or water in my cleaned bottles and then freeze them. That way I can carry around a drink and not have to keep returning it to the frig or a cooler. Beats trying to force ice cubes down a narrow necked bottle.

  64. jim2 says:

    EMS said: May the highly “social” political class proceed me!

    Yep. Finally, my introvert tendencies give me an edge :). If this turns out to be seasonal, which I suspect it is, then there will be time to vet the existing treatments here in the US, create more, and eventually get a vaccine. The early deaths in the US were mostly elderly. The stock market swoon has gotten the government’s attention on the problem, and in some of the briefings I have heard of late, they are focusing on the elderly.

    That’s good for us as I know there are many nascent elderly who comment here ;)

  65. jim2 says:

    @Gail – if you want a more quantitative method to measure bleach solutions during this wave of infections, here are some test strips. There is also a pdf on that page explaining high as well as low limits.

    https://www.webstaurantstore.com/serim-5148q-chlorine-test-strips-0-300ppm-vial/373S5148Q.html

  66. E.M.Smith says:

    It is sure looking like cruise boats are a thing to avoid…

  67. Ossqss says:

    Any mass transit type vehicle is an issue. Ships are just easier to ID as they have longer duration journeys. Think of how many different folks go through a subway or plane over a couple week period.

    Looks like the % of serious cases has dropped to 14% as of worldometer stat today.

    I wonder if ionization would help drop the virus out of the air? I recall some fans and filter systems that used them to help with odors and some using HEPA level filtration. IIRC, some electrostatic filters do something similar.

  68. jim2 says:

    By the use of a modified ionizer device we describe effective prevention of airborne transmitted influenza A (strain Panama 99) virus infection between animals and inactivation of virus (>97%). Active ionizer prevented 100% (4/4) of guinea pigs from infection. Moreover, the device effectively captured airborne transmitted calicivirus, rotavirus and influenza virus, with recovery rates up to 21% after 40 min in a 19 m3 room. The ionizer generates negative ions, rendering airborne particles/aerosol droplets negatively charged and electrostatically attracts them to a positively charged collector plate. Trapped viruses are then identified by reverse transcription quantitative real-time PCR. The device enables unique possibilities for rapid and simple removal of virus from air and offers possibilities to simultaneously identify and prevent airborne transmission of viruses.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4477231/

  69. E.M.Smith says:

    I have a HEPA filter ionizer in my bedroom. Used to remove pollen, animal dander and other nose irritants as needed. Nice to know it is doing something for bacteria and viruses too 8-)

  70. E.M.Smith says:

    What happened to Switzerland? Italian tourists?

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    USA 421 +102 19 +4 15 387 8 1.3
    Switzerland 268 +54 1 3 264 31.0
    UK 209 +45 2 18 189 3.1
    Netherlands 188 +60 1 187 1 11.0

    Looks like the USA MAY have finally started real testing. +102 in one day. Over 400 total confirmed. UK looks worse off as a % of population.

    Then there is Italy… While China claims only one new case, Italy adds over 1000 in one day.

    Looks like France and Germany will be in that club very soon too. S.Korea topping 7000 despite excellent screening procedures.

    China 80,652 +1 3,070 55,524 22,058 5,489 56.0
    S. Korea 7,041 +448 48 +5 118 6,875 36 137.3
    Italy 5,883 +1,247 233 +36 589 5,061 567 97.3
    Iran 5,823 +1,076 145 +21 1,669 4,009 69.3
    France 949 +296 16 +7 12 921 45 14.5
    Germany 800 +130 18 782 9 9.5

    Italy and Iran look like what not to do… letting it get out of hand. IMHO, the USA will be in the thousand+ club next week. Germany by Monday. France tomorrow..

  71. Gail Combs says:

    More, on the too little too late…
    Police-enforced quarantine hits Calif. residential block after man’s coronavirus death

    Sacramento County, ROCKLIN, Calif.

    Coronavirus In NY: 89 Cases, State Of Emergency Declared

    Dozens more New Yorkers contracted coronavirus as Gov. Andrew Cuomo declared a state of emergency. Ten people were hospitalized.

    70 cases are located in Westchester… I wonder if Hitlery is getting worried.

  72. Gail Combs says:

    On the ground report:

    cthulhu
    March 7, 2020 at 02:35
    The fiancee is working at a local VA hospital in Silicon Valley. She checks people in, schedules appointments, miscellaneous administrative stuff….

    At 4:00 on Friday, she was told that there would be mandatory full-day work on Saturday and Sunday. All non-critical clinical appointments were to be pushed-out by a minimum of 45 days.

    That’s all the outpatient stuff. Like sleep studies, CPAP evaluations, audiology tests….

    Mind you, Santa Clara County did just get a half-dozen more active cases.

  73. E.M.Smith says:

    Yeah, Sanra Clara… where I am…

    Now you know why I went to lockdown early….

    Looks like not going anywhere for a couple of months…

  74. Bill In Oz says:

    Governments are still not shutting down airline travel
    Even international airline travel.
    They want tourists to keep spending money !
    But along with the ‘tourists’ are arriving lots of COVID 19 Refugees.
    After all if one of us was stuck in some infected backward place with poor health system
    We’d all want to go somewhere safer and with a better health system.
    But of course some of them are already infected.
    And so carry it with them to spread more widely.

  75. Pingback: 7 March 2020 Covid-19 California Quarantine & Exponential Math | Musings from the Chiefio

  76. Gail Combs says:

    CPAC attendee tests positive for coronavirus
    The person who tested positive for the Wuhan/SARS2 coronavirus became infected BEFORE GOING TO THE CONFERENCE from NEW JERSEY.
    The conference was held February 26 – 29 in National Harbor, Maryland.
    The infected person tested positive TODAY.
    The person is now in quarantine.
    “At least one attendee at last month’s 2020 Conservative Political Action Conference tested positive for the new coronavirus.

    The American Conservative Union announced that one of the attendees to its annual conference, which attracted 19,000 people in 2019 and roughly the same amount this year, contracted the COVID-19 virus prior to the event in National Harbor, Maryland, thus exposing others to the disease.”
    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/cpac-attendee-tests-positive-for-coronavirus
    ….

    CPAC Chairman Matt Schlapp interacted with both the carrier and President Trump.

  77. E.M.Smith says:

    It isn’t called “glad handing” for nothing.

    They also need the timeline of the infection. Was the person newly infected just before going, so low viral load and little shedding? Or were they into it a week and highly infectious?

    Maybe with this kind of thing the political class will also catch a clue and stop major gatherings for a while.

  78. Gail Combs says:

    “…Maybe with this kind of thing the political class will also catch a clue and stop major gatherings for a while.”

    Again I think it is a bit too little too late for the Jet Setters. After all that group is actually fairly small and they travel all over the globe. They also shake hands, pound backs, hug and kiss a lot.

    “CDC believes at this time that symptoms of COVID-19 may appear in as few as 2 days or as long as 14 days after exposure.”

    However we are aware of it sometimes taking 24 to 27 days before major symptoms show.

    24 Days
    “…A new medical and clinical study on the coronavirus based on data gathered from more than 1,000 coronavirus patients in Wuhan, China revealed that the incubation period for the coronavirus was as long as 24 days rather than the previously believed 14 days, and also significantly, fewer than half of the patients showed fever symptoms when they first saw doctors….”
    *https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/alarming-news-new-chinese-research-on-coronavirus-finds-incubation-period-of-up-to-24-days

    Study Reference : https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v1.full.pdf
    …..

    27 days
    Feb 22, 2020: “…The incubation period of the new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus which causes the Covid-19 disease can be as long as 27 days according to a new media report by Reuters based on statements by Health authorities in Hubei….

    Virologists are warning that even the 27 days observed time period might not be even accurate as the new coronavirus could even have an incubation periods that much longer that have yet to be clinically observed and verified.

    This new revelation could also indicate that all past quarantines were actually ineffective and many of those who have been released could actually now be spreading the disease. Health authorities worldwide need to react fast on this new information. “
    *https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-news-new-coronavirus-can-incubate-for-as-long-as-27-days-before-showing-symptoms

  79. Gail Combs says:

    WUHAN VIRUS in FLORIDA
    3 new “presumptive positive” cases (being tested)
    — Volusia County (east coast)
    — Okaloosa County (Panhandle)…
    — Manatee County (central Gulf Coast)…
    https://www.wftv.com/news/local/live-updates-2-people-florida-die-coronavirus/JEL3YKY67JBZRFENWFRU4J76PA/

    ….

    CORONAVIRUS UPDATES : Florida Reports First Deaths On East Coast

    “…There have been 20 deaths in the U.S. — 17 in Washington state and one in California, as well as the two in Florida. There are confirmed cases of the virus in 32 states and Washington D.C…”

    Italy puts a quarter of the population under lockdown
    On Saturday, Italy reported 1,247 new confirmed cases and 36 additional deaths. Italy is the hardest hit country outside of Asia…

    https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/coronavirus-outbreak-death-toll-us-infections-latest-news-updates-2020-03-07/
    ….

    FL Dept. of Health COVID-19 page – http://www.floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-conditions/COVID-19/index.html

    I emailed and asked them for a map, but they haven’t put one up yet.

    Supposedly, Gadsden county has a ‘presumptive positive’ case, but it hasn’t been CDC confirmed yet.

    ALL from one of the ladies:

  80. E.M.Smith says:

    Florida, like Italy, is a tourist mecca. With that comes the contagion and the most severe economic impact as tourism dries up.

  81. Gail Combs says:

    Again from the ladies:
    “Per 700WLW “Sunday Sterling” radio show, today:
    There is now a confirmed first case of the Wuhan/SARS2 coronavirus in HARRISON COUNTY, Kentucky. The Kentucky health department is in the process of tracing the infected person’s contacts to get them tested. The infected person is in isolation at CHANDLER HOSPITAL in Lexington, KY.

    Here’s where it gets dicey and JUST what I predicted, based on the enforced quarantine in Rocklin (Placer County, CA) —
    Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear (D) has issued a State of Emergency AND IS CONSIDERING a county-wide lockdown for Harrison County. The schools there will be closed for at least a week.”

    >>>>>

    Florida will also have hordes of college students descending for spring break…

    “… Daytona’s famous for some of the craziest Spring Break parties on this side of the planet…”https://www.dbspringbreak.com/

    NOT good for the hotels and restaurants:
    Transmission of SARS and MERS coronaviruses and influenza virus in healthcare settings: the possible role of dry surface contamination.
    *https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26597631
    “SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and influenza virus can survive on surfaces for extended periods, sometimes up to months….”

    The one bright spot 🌞
    This is from the CDC on hantavirus
    “…Ultraviolet (UV) light is a very effective way to kill viruses under certain circumstances. Sunlight produces high intensities of UV and finely dispersed aerosols of the kind that infect humans are readily penetrated by the light. Virus inactivation has never been measured under those circumstances, but it must be very rapid.

    However, the UV light must penetrate to the virus particle. One reason why the interior of structures may be dangerous is that the reflected white light from outside will not contain sufficient UV. Similarly, solids or liquids provide a challenge to UV penetration….”
    *https://www.cdc.gov/hantavirus/technical/hps/faq.html

    “…Researchers say a certain spectrum of ultraviolet light — called far-UVC — easily kills airborne flu viruses while posing no risk to people….”
    *https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20180212/can-uv-light-be-used-to-kill-airborne-flu-virus-#1

    “….Scientists found 222 nanometer far-UVC light was just as effective as broad spectrum UV light at killing and deactivating the aerosolized influenza virus….

    Researchers at the Columbia University Irving Medical Center suggest far-UVC lamps should be installed in hospitals, doctors offices, schools, airports and other public places….”
    *https://www.upi.com/Science_News/2018/02/09/UV-light-can-kill-airborne-flu-virus-study-finds/3081518201355/

  82. E.M.Smith says:

    UVC does little damagd to thick skin, but is not safe for open wounds and eyes (and I’d expect mucus membranes snd lips)
    https://www.klaran.com/is-uvc-safe

  83. llanfar says:

    https://www.healio.com/infectious-disease/nosocomial-infections/news/online/%7Bf90ecd9f-cb4a-4718-af6e-1362c4e7625b%7D/far-uvc-light-safely-kills-airborne-flu

    In a news release, Brenner said far-UVC is safe for humans because it cannot penetrate the outer dead-cell layer of their skin or the tear layer in their eyes, but it works on much smaller viruses and bacteria, reaching their DNA and killing them.

    “If our results are confirmed in other settings, it follows that the use of overhead low-level far-UVC light in public locations would be a safe and efficient method for limiting the transmission and spread of airborne-mediated microbial diseases, such as influenza and tuberculosis,” he said.

  84. ossqss says:

    @EM, you have no idea on how much a dip in tourism can make traffic more palatable down here. Not sayin that is a good thing under the circumstances, but the traditional exit time of tourists is Easter and it is indeed indeed coming, but the trend is they don’t leave like the snow birds of old.

    Just sayin, observations from ground zero in FL :-)

  85. E.M.Smith says:

    https://www.klaran.com/is-uvc-safe

    In rare instances of prolonged direct exposure to UVC light, temporary eye and skin damage has been exhibited, such as cornea injury (sometimes referred to as “welder’s eye”) although this generally heals after a couple of days. Therefore, safety recommendations with UVC LEDs include protecting skin (in particular open wounds) and, most importantly, the eyes from UVC radiation. The EU health agency’s safety guidelines on the use of UVC sources can be found here. In particular, the study concludes:

    “In any case, UVC is strongly attenuated by chromophores in the upper epidermis (Young, 1997) and UVC-induced DNA damage in the dividing basal layer of human epidermis is not readily detected (Campbell et al, 1993; Chadwick et al, 1995) which may explain why the dose response curve for UVC erythema in human skin is very much less steep than for UVB (Diffey and Farr, 1991). It is unlikely that UVC from artificial sources presents an acute or long-term hazard to human skin. However, UVC is likely to cause acute photokeratitis… UVC exposure is unlikely to cause acute or long-term damage to the skin but can cause severe acute damage to the eye and should not be permitted at all from any tanning device.”

  86. E.M.Smith says:

    @Ossqss:

    Um, remember I’ve lived in Orlando about 3 years all told? I liked the slow times…

  87. llanfar says:

    @E.M. I think my article was referencing far-UVC. Not sure how different those are. Also, I heard on Friday that China was using mobile robots with far-UVC lights. Can’t find the link at the moment… Scott Adams had it on his Friday periscope.

  88. Gail Combs says:

    OH the JOYS of ‘Self-quarantine’
    St. Louis coronavirus: Family breaks quarantine attending Villa father-daughter dance, prompting school closure

    I hope the A$$H@T gets sued by any of the parents/kids that come down with the virus after comingling with this father/daughter.

  89. E.M.Smith says:

    @Ilanfar:

    Good poibt. I’d not noticed the difference.

    @Gail:

    Yeah, that’s what sucks about the widespread use of self quarantine. Then, for one caught, how many such exposures were not caught? The “damn, out of TP., I’ll just sneak down to the bodega and buy some.”…

    With R0 being up around 14 if just one in 14 self “quarantine” does that, you fail.

  90. Breaking News: Sacramento Cancels Coronavirus Quarantine! Urgent Press Release From Adrienne Floreen https://youtu.be/BE4hsJOMyts

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