W.O.O.D. – 22 April 2020

Intro

This is another of the W.O.O.D. series of semi-regular
Weekly Occasional Open Discussions.
(i.e. if I forget and skip one, no big)

Immediate prior one here:

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/02/27/w-o-o-d-27-february-2020/
and remains open for threads running there (at least until the ‘several month’ auto-close of comments on stale threads).

Canonical list of old ones here:
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/category/w-o-o-d/

For just general FYI notices, use to “tips” pages. All the old ones remain for historical reference:
Tips Pages

What’s Going On?

The world has been preoccupied with the Chinese Wuhan Covid-19 problem for a couple of months now. It’s very much not good.

It has its own set of threads to follow in its own category: Covid-19.
Some potential side effects will be mentioned here.

There’s the way China ran a small aircraft carrier through the disputed South China Sea what with the Roosevelt sidelined. You can bet that the Chinese are now very much aware they “took out our biggest baddest carrier” via a couple of sailors on shore leave. The Captain ought to have never said anything about it publicly. Maybe now they will give more attention to single person crew quarters “going forward”. Or at least some separation of groups. There’s some folks think China might want to start military trouble, both to “hit us while we are down” and to distract their population. I don’t think so, as they desperately need our food shipments.

Iran launched a satellite. Supposedly for better TV service. Trump said we’re watching it, but… It would be a dandy time for Iran to set off a nuclear EMP in the ionosphere and cripple the USA. Raging pandemic AND no electricity, communications, or computers?

Kim Jong Un is having a spot of bad health. Could get very interesting in a hurry if he has “sudden complications”.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/21/north-korean-leader-kim-jong-un-has-heart-surgery-report
Some other folks are talking up the potential for N. Korea to start a fight over this. Hmmm…. they have working nukes, work with Iran a lot… Just sayin’ it has potential.

Stock market took a dive, then short cover drove it back to the SMA stack. Now’s the decision point. Does it do the usual “dead cat bounce” retest of the lows, or just push on through into a roaring recovery? Hard to say as this is all so unusual. I’d expect that the absolutely shitty quarter reports and subsequent bankruptcies would drive it down, OTOH, The Fed is sending a tidal wave of money at financial instruments. Reality vs Fiat Money? Reality will eventually win, but eventually can be a long time away…

The EU is still trying to stop any effective BREXIT. Boris, back from a drive-by with God, is sticking with “No.” so good on him. Italy is P.O.’d, and rightly so, and may well exit next. Gee, maybe Boris needs to send a trade delegation to Rome to “open trade talks”. That would sure set the EUrocrats tongues to wagging ;-)

So I’d not put money in Asia, certainly not China. Africa is a basket case and will remain so. South America will be “on the rocks” for a good while as this plague is just getting started there. India is shut down and not a good idea. The Euro Zone is mid-explosive disassembly, the UK has potential, both for a good launch and catastrophic dithering… Then there’s the USA. World leader in the Covid Cases Sweepstakes and preparing to find out what happens if you go back to “Business as usual” in the middle of a highly contagious plague… Decisions decisions…. But “The time to buy is when blood is running in the streets” and we’re pretty much in that case now. The big question is “How much worse before better?” followed by “Will the wall of fiat money overcome that?”.

We’re getting record cold, record wet, and record late snow all over the “Temperate Zone” up north. This is damaging farm production at the same time that shortages of workers is damaging farmers. The potential for food shortages and famine is relatively high. China has told folks in one province to stock up with 6 months of provisions if possible. Several wheat exporters have banned exports (Russia is one). I’m much less worried about the USA. We are huge net exporters of food. Even if things go sideways, we have a fair amount of excess capacity for our own needs. BUT, will our folks be smart enough to not sell it all over seas first?

Personally, I’m keeping my Prepper Supply topped up on my every few weeks shopping run. I’m also running a more production oriented garden this year. Less playing and investigating, more volume of a few things I can eat. FWIW my best guess is that the Midwest will have the same wet “no-plant” problems this year as last. This is not going to end well as the cold wet reality is NOT being prepared for due to all the Global Warming lies and hype. You will likely be on your own in preparing.

I’d suggest folks do the same preparing. IF you can, start a garden. In any case, buy some storable dry goods and keep stocked up. A big 25# bag of rice and beans from COSTCO runs about $50 for both, and gives you survival rations for 2 for about a month, maybe two. I bought 25 lbs of bread flour at Smart & Final for about $7 and that’s about a person-month of food. Add some Jerky & SPAM and some canned fruits and vegetables, some dried onions & garlic granules for seasoning the beans, and a basic “getting started” package is still under $100. Oh, and a pack of 24 ramen cups runs abut $4 and gives me about a month of lunches (with tuna & crackers on the other 6 days) It isn’t costly to have SOMETHING in the cupboards.

Dry beans and dry white rice, in air tight glass jars, stores for a couple of years at room temperature. I’ve done it. See tips on food storage here and here. There’s a lot more in the category: https://chiefio.wordpress.com/category/emergency-preparation-and-risks/. Also gardening articles are here.

The world is a mess right now.

I’m sure theirs lots of other stuff I’ve forgotten to include. As it comes to me I’ll add it in comments.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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221 Responses to W.O.O.D. – 22 April 2020

  1. E.M.Smith says:

    Looks like Trump ain’t taking no shit from Iran. Navy given go-ahead to shoot Iranian harassing speed boats. Australia & USA doing a freedom of navigation run in the South China Sea in some force. I’m not as worried by it as Tim is. It is more or less The Usual in diplomacy… but rarely does turn into “by other means”…

  2. Terry Jackson says:

    Grocery store workers relatively not affected.
    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/04/22/tucker-carlson-questions-the-wisdom-of-the-lock-down-approach/

    The world as I see it, summer is coming and flu season goes away. Outdoor activity is good, as outdoor transmission is negligible and sunlight is beneficial, as in the virus quickly dies and people make VitaminD. So, get out of the house( a confined space) and outside to parks and streets and trails. Forget the sun screen for a while. Take your vitamins, and enjoy the sun.

    The local Kroger and Walmart put up the checker screens, and local cases are few. Also, the sunbirds are leaving, so population is dropping.

  3. David A says:

    A 20 minute sun bath midmorning or afternoon is plenty good. No need to over do or burn.

  4. E.M.Smith says:

    Oh, this is gonna leave a mark. Nancy Antoinette and her” “Let them eat ice cream” moment:

  5. ossqss says:

    Amazingly, I have been watching availability of disinfecting wipes over the last month. I made my own weeks ago with paper towels, but Everything is sold out “still” online and in stores every day. WTF are people doing, filling their garages with this stuff?

    Are the landfills are gonna be sterile soon from remnants. Just sayin……

  6. E.M.Smith says:

    Factories are built for the usual demand average. Parts and materials contracts too.

    Now demand is up gigantically as everybody is wiping every door knob, counter, and car. The average sized factory is insufficient for that excess demand, even with added shifts.

    What I do us use one to wipe down in the car, then let it dry out on the console. Next time I wash hands with alcohol over the wipe spread out. The excess dripping off wets the wipe that then wipes the car. I get a half dozen+ uses per wipe. My one tub of wipes will be good for several months at this run rate.

  7. A C Osborn says:

    “We’re getting record cold, record wet, and record late snow all over the “Temperate Zone” up north.”
    And nary a word anywhere in the MSM, in fact they are still pushing hottest evah and hot horror stories.

  8. H.R. says:

    @Terry Jackson re plastic screens for checkers:

    We have Kroger in our region (everybody has Walmart in their region). I was glad to see the screens, but Kroger wasn’t the first. We have a chain out of Wisconsin(?) Minnesota(?) named Meijer that was first, as far as I know.

    Anyhow, they have sprung up everywhere, and I’m glad to see them not only for the checkers’ sake, but for the benefit of customers. Exhaling flu viruses is a two-way street. The stores should have thought of this years ago just for regular old flu season, and of course it is always cold season.

    I have also seen that a couple of stores have trained their checkers to wipe the credit card terminals after every customer. The two places I have seen that, it took about 8-12 seconds depending on where they placed the reader in relation to the checker.

    Anyhow, stores are developing positive steps to disrupt virus transmission that, going forward, will serve everyone well for regular flu season and a second wave of Xi’s Disease.

    These measures will pay for themselves as they will have fewer employees calling off sick due to a cold or flu.

  9. Bill In Oz says:

    HR Yes I think that this will be a permanent change even here in Oz. All four major national supermarket chains have clear plastic screens at the checkouts now between customers & checkout staff. And it will help to slow down the spread of all viruses not just the Wuhan COVID 19 one.

    A good outcome !

  10. cdquarles says:

    Wal-mart here put them up early this month. Since I try to minimize going shopping, I am not sure about other places. I also try to hit the smaller places, like the Dollar General 2 miles away, whenever possible. There are generally fewer folk in them.

  11. A C Osborn says:

    THey are in most UK supermarkets as well. Our small local ones fitted them about a fortnight ago.

  12. E.M.Smith says:

    I guess I ought to gave expected it from the French… but a gourmet MRE?

    Lasagna, pate, chocolate, cafe, rice pudding, fruit bar and more? Including the stove, fuel, and trash bag.

    I gotta find a way to get some French MREs for my bugout bags….

  13. Compu Gator says:

    A C Osborn replied 23 April 2020 at 8:56 am [*]:
    “We’re getting record cold, record wet, and record late snow all over the ‘Temperate Zone’ up north.” And nary a word anywhere in the MSM, in fact they are still pushing hottest evah and hot horror stories.

    Sooo, are they focusing on Florida to push such stories? Central Florida in 2020 did indeed endure our hottest March ever. Starting in or after the 1st week in March [×], we’d suffered thro’ weeks-worth of days whose highs were at or above 90 damn degrees (F). I never tracked humidity before, but I’ve been surprised at how it’s plummeted, e.g., I saw 25% near midday yesterday. Remnants of continental-U.S. cold fronts now seem to provide only 2-or-so days relief from the premature heat. Historically, the most reliably pleasant weather in Cen. Fla. centers around mid March [*], but not this year. I’m not going to spend the time to compile them from U.S. National Weather Service daily charts, nor from my logging of local weather. I fear that I’ll need the same for April. Eventually, I’ll just go look for the NWS’s month-long charts of daily highs vs. lows, which I assume exist somewhere on line.

    So this year, how I envy the really cool Spring nights that I remember along the California North Coast, and even in Silicon Valley.

    ——-
    Note ×: “in or after the 1st week in March”: Phrased thus by me because the radio-&-t.v. weatherman whom I recall as making such statements spoke ambiguously, omitting actual dates.

    Note *: The opposite seasonally pleasant weather used to center around mid October (as vaguely remembered from the usual 2-p.m. kick-offs at Florida Field in G’ville ca. 1970), but it’s become harder to figure. Nowadays, we might get scant relief from de facto summer until November, and even then, not much.

  14. pouncer says:

    So we now have negative oil prices. Suppliers are paying customers to take the stuff away. Recently some central bankers were contemplating the next round of economic stimulus with discussions of negative interest rates. Banks would charge investors a monthly fee for holding deposits.

    Milton Friedman proposed an alternative to the minimum wage he called the negative income tax. It got implemented in the Nixon era as the Earned Income Tax Credit.

    So, I’m wondering now about a Negative Inventory Tax.

    In general warehouses and logistics managers consider inventory an investment to be minimized, and assign “inventory carrying costs” of some percentage or another to just holding stuff for future need. Safety stock. You have to have it to ride out the bumps, bubbles and leaks in the pipeline, but you don’t want very much of it. States and localities look at a business’s books and see inventory as a credit and tend to tax it — just as they tax property value or vehicles.

    In an age where we want to encourage suppliers to hold safety stock of certain commodities, (masks, gloves, anti-viral wipes, particular items to be determined) would it not be wise for localities to PAY warehouses to offset the costs of carrying “excess” inventory of such items? A negative inventory tax, or a tax credit, or an exemption from ordinary property taxes for particular products?

    Is this an old idea I’m simply not familiar with?

  15. E.M.Smith says:

    I’ve not heard of it before. Seems reasonable to me as a method of influence. However I am generally opposed to using taxes for behavior modification. Too much monkey business by corrupt politicians, but I repeat myself…

    Frankly, I’d start by just eliminating any inventory taxes. If I can write off money spent to buy wheat to make flour, but no tax on the goods until sold; I will tend to cary inventory as a money shelter.

    @Julian Jones:

    Unless you inventory the virus population in all the local critters, you can not rule out natural formation. There are trillions of virus replications per day. The law of large numbers in a sloppy replication process assures lots of novel combinations.

    That said: IMHO, Occam says a lab made it and a grad student that the CCP has tried to disappear from the lab web page was patient zero. The rest is AwShit, butt covering, and malicious political excesses.

  16. Compu Gator says:

    pouncer replied 23 April 2020 at 7:20 pm GMT:
    In an age where we want to encourage suppliers to hold safety stock of certain commodities, (masks, gloves, anti-viral wipes, particular items to be determined) would it not be wise for localities to PAY warehouses to offset the costs of carrying “excess” inventory of such items? A negative inventory tax, or a tax credit, or an exemption from ordinary property taxes for particular products? Is this an old idea I’m simply not familiar with?

    Isn’t that the justification for federal “subsidized cotton“, which is criticized not only by rational fisheries conservationists, but also by orthodox “environmentalists”, in the context of institutionalized massive water diversions by dams on California rivers? I assume the federal goal is to maintain U.S. sources for clothing plausibly required by U.S. military services. Altho’ nowadays, some of that clothing is partially or fully composed of petroleum-derived artificial fibers. Neverless, the Confederates in the War Between the States provided a scary example of consequences of carrying on war that stretches resources beyond their limits.

    For discussing the benefits vs. liabilities of actual financial mechanisms, you’d want to hear from someone with much more economic and financial knowledge than I.

  17. E.M.Smith says:

    @CompuGator:

    2 different things.

    Inventory is goods already in hand, regardless of source country of materials or products.

    Subsidy for production is to maintain an industrual capability, regardless of inventory.

    Inventory gets you an immediate surge cspacity to get through short term disruptions in markets and shipping.

    Basic subsidized capacity gets you a minimal run rate capacity necessary in an ongoing emergency or supply disruption, and a basic skill level for building more capacity longer term.

    Inventory is a big capacitor in your power supply to smooth out ripples. Standby subsidy is an emergency generator big enough to run the essentials for a few days.

  18. Compu Gator says:

    E.M.Smith replied 23 April 2020 at 8:55 pm GMT:
    Inventory is a big capacitor in your power supply to smooth out ripples. Standby subsidy is an emergency generator big enough to run the essentials for a few days.

    Thanks for the electronic analogy. It helps (at least) me understand 2 aspects of economics,which I often regard as smoke-&-mirrors [×] that somehow were made academically respectable.

    But isn’t all U.S. subsidized cotton of acceptable quality federally purchased, then stored in some kind of “Strategic Cotton Reserve“?

    ——-
    Note ×: Wasn’t there 1 man awarded 2 Nobel Prizes in different years of more-or-less modern times, each for articulating an economic theory, for which the 2 in combination were mutually exclusive?

  19. jim2 says:

    And just-in-time inventory from China is your pole transformer exploding.

  20. ossqss says:

    Here is a live, and I do mean YouTube live, picture of all of you, no BS :-)
    Audio not doing so well this time for me however.

  21. beththeserf says:

    God’s eye view, thank you, ossqss.

  22. Nancy & John Hultquist says:

    Compu Gator
    “Eventually, I’ll just go look for the NWS’s month-long charts of daily highs vs. lows, which I assume exist somewhere on line.”

    Here are charts for Yakima, WA that seem like what you mention. Perhaps other NWS places do them also.
    https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/climate/temp_graphs.php?stn=KYKM&submit=Change+Station&wfo=pdt

    Days 2 & 3 of April set record lows, as did many other stations in the region.
    Otherwise, these just don’t seem exciting.

  23. p.g.sharrow says:

    Interesting Glen Beck show on the Covid Pandemic War Game of October 2019

    Makes the reaction of Officials to this Covid-19 pandemic make sense as to their actions and aims…pg

  24. YMMV says:

    Is the rest of the world still there? We haven’t heard much about anything but covid. Poor Greta, ignored. France yellow vests, faded. Revolution in Iran, Bueller? Kim Jong-un, missing.

    Remember Kim’s Christmas message, promising a surprise, hinting at a new weapon?
    Could it be? No, that’s not possible. Is it? /sarc

  25. ossqss says:

    So here is a better site. Better audio and positioning info embedded. I have found it relaxing.

    Who can translate the term “Yat” :-)

  26. ossqss says:

    If you like oldies, but goodies, here ya go>

  27. Compu Gator says:

    My thanks to Nancy & John Hulquist. On seeing the URL they posted, ’twas obvious how I needed to change it for my needs (excerpts below).

    But perhaps the best combination for distant readers is a much more visual one: The set of “Orlando Intl (KMCO) 2020 Climate Graphs”, which is presented on a running 31-day basis (approx. 24 March—23 April). See esp. how often the daily highs exceed the soothing green “normal” range, and reach into the unsettling pink record range:
    https://www.weather.gov/mlb/cligraph_kmco_2020.

    This is the data I was seeking, provided by modifying the Hulquist’s URL:

    CLIMATE REPORT [(CLM) MONTHLY WEATHER SUMMARY–issued once per month]
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
    ORLANDO INTL [Airport] CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH 2020
    325 PM EDT WED APR 01 2020
    [….]
    HIGHEST 93 [°F] 03/28
    LOWEST 43 [°F] 03/01
    AVG. MAXIMUM 85.6 [°F]
    AVG. MINIMUM 62.4 [°F]
    DAYS MAX >= 90 [°F] 9 [days]

    Orlando is 1 of 7 cities within the domain of the Melbourne NWS radar station
    (Brevard Co.) that are available for selection. Its advantage is in presenting exact numbers; its disadvantage is not providing any data for months that haven’t yet ended.
    https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=mlb (no direct link).

  28. Compu Gator says:

    Ooops! They’re “Nancy & John Hultquist”. My apologies. Considering the routine misspellings of my name in real life, I can easily feel your pain.

  29. Julian Jones says:

    Bill Gates expose :

  30. Another Ian says:

    A different view on TP

    Tomorrow is ANZAC Day down here and this year’s is going to have to be different – no dawn service, no marches etc.

    One radio station just interviewed a survivor of WW2 and the Burma railway.

    In the interview he mentioned the recent TP panic rush and noted that in 3 1/2 years as a Japanese POW he didn’t see TP and still managed to live to 103

  31. Another Ian says:

    “WILL THE WAR WITH CHINA BE WORDS, TRADE, ARMS – (OR ALL OF THE ABOVE)?”

    Howell Woltz

    The International Centre for Justice

    Warsaw, Poland

    https://richardsonpost.com/howellwoltz/17154/war-with-china/

  32. E.M.Smith says:

    @CompuGator:

    It’s a bit more complicated than that…

    As far as I know, the USA does not have a stockpile of cotton. The need for it more or less left with the clothing industry. China and South Asia are now major cotton producers so China has a stockpile… but it is trying to sell it off. Which drives down prices and threatens our cotton growers ( I’m sure putting our cotton growers out of business is purely accidental…) so the USA has a subsidy program to “stabilize the market” – i.e. keep our cotton growers in business.

    This is cash payments gratis (i.e. not buying cotton) when prices fall bellow the desired level.

    https://curiousmatic.com/the-worlds-strategic-reserves-hold-pork-oil-helium-and-more/

    Cotton

    Along with pork, grain, and precious metals, China has stockpiled about half the world’s cotton supply, which it’s attempting to sell off. Meanwhile, India is planning its own strategic reserve for cotton to secure supplies for a growing textile industry.

    The USA does have Strategic Stockpiles of oil and medicinal goods along with some thousands of tons of gold and other special metals.

    IIRC, it was in the ’70s that the USA cleared out our agricultural products inventories (including wheat, btw) and went to money payments for market stabilization efforts. We have transitioned largely to a “just in time” and global shipping based food system (and other agricultural products too) so any big glitch, you get to starve. Thus my interest in food storage systems – because you are on your own.

    Also, for cotton, realize there are 4 species but only 2 of major economic importance. Upland and ELS or Extra Long Staple. (The other 2 are about 2% of the market each and mostly just of interest in the few Old World places where they are native – Pakistan / India and Arabia / Africa). Upland is shorter fibres but grows well in cooler hills areas. ELS (or Island) grew well in the coastal islands of the Carolinas, but inland not so much. However it makes the highest quality cotton goods.

    Enter the California connection. We are not humid, but we do have lots of irrigation, so can satisfy the long hot sunny growing requirement along with “well watered”. (Why let people take showers or have lawns when you can grow cotton instead?… /snark;)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cotton

    Types

    There are four commercially grown species of cotton, all domesticated in antiquity:

    Gossypium hirsutum – upland cotton, native to Central America, Mexico, the Caribbean and southern Florida (90% of world production)
    Gossypium barbadense – known as extra-long staple cotton, native to tropical South America (8% of world production)
    Gossypium arboreum – tree cotton, native to India and Pakistan (less than 2%)
    Gossypium herbaceum – Levant cotton, native to southern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula (less than 2%)

    The two New World cotton species account for the vast majority of modern cotton production, but the two Old World species were widely used before the 1900s. While cotton fibers occur naturally in colors of white, brown, pink and green, fears of contaminating the genetics of white cotton have led many cotton-growing locations to ban the growing of colored cotton varieties.

    Note the reference to coloured cotton? In the Slavery South Blacks were forbidden to dye their clothes. Being smart folks, they figured out how they could grow colored cotton and thus plead “But I didn’t dye it, that’s just the colour what it is.” While commercially no longer relevant, there’s a dedicated group of mostly Black Seed Savers who are preserving those varieties as a cultural heritage.

    Also note that only 8% of cotton is the highly desired ELS type. That’s because it is very picky about where it can grow.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gossypium_barbadense

    Gossypium barbadense, also known as extra-long staple (ELS) cotton, is a species of cotton plant that has been cultivated to have ELS fibres – fibres longer than 34 millimetres (1 3⁄8 in) – which are associated with high quality cotton cloth.

    The species is a tropical, frost-sensitive perennial that produces yellow flowers and has black seeds. It grows as a small, bushy tree and yields cotton with unusually long, silky fibers. To grow, it requires full sun and high humidity and rainfall.
    This plant contains the chemical gossypol, which reduces its susceptibility to insect and fungal damage.

    ELS cotton is commonly sold as Pima or Egyptian cotton. However, only a small amount of Egyptian cotton produced each year is actually ELS cotton. The Pima name label has been adopted by ELS producers in places such as Australia, Peru, and Israel.

    While California isn’t humid and tropical, it does have a very long sunny warm growing season and lots of irrigation water. At least when the Democrats are not dumping it in the San Francisco Bay to attempt to save a minor minnow that is really being out competed by the Japanese variant of it that they imported (Fish & Game did it… before they realized it’s a different species / subspecies – they hybridize). But why admit your prior mistake when you can blame it on Global Warming and destroy the water economy too? But I digress… https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2015/05/21/drought-or-stupid-rescue-killing-delta-smelt/

    Meanwhile, back at the wiki on Pima cotton:

    Sea Island cotton

    What was called Sea Island cotton was cultivated on the Sea Islands, along the coasts of South Carolina and Georgia, especially by the late 18th century. Sea Island cotton commanded the highest price of all the cottons, due to its long staple (1.5 to 2.5 inches, 35 to 60 mm) and its silky texture; it was used for the finest cotton counts and often mixed with silk.

    Although planters tried to grow it on the uplands of Georgia, the quality was inferior,[8] and it was too expensive to process. The invention of the cotton gin by the end of the 18th century utterly changed the production of cotton as a commodity crop. It made processing of short-staple cotton profitable. This cotton, known as upland cotton (Gossypium hirsutum), could be grown successfully in the interior uplands. Short-staple cotton became the prime commodity crop of the developing Deep South, and King Cotton was the basis of southern wealth in the antebellum years. This cotton in the early 21st century represents about 95% of U.S. production.

    So when looking at California cotton, you must keep in mind that it is very special cotton. There were fields of it near the Ag School where I went to university. I’ve played with it. (Econ majors expect to defend subsidy payments for the industry or attack them if employed by the government, depending on who’s budget is involved… Yes, I’m an economist…)

    https://ccgga.org/cotton-information/ca-cotton-facts/


    California’s production of ELS or Pima cotton represents over 90% of the total U.S. pima cotton production.
    Production of upland types represents about 4% of U.S. annual production on average.

    So basically your Hollywood Stars and Techno-Rich who want the Very Best clothes and most comfortable sheets (for their on screen use, or when auditioning…) will be demanding cotton from California grown under ideal conditions with mountain snow melt water…
    /snark;

    One might wonder if we really need to be in the cotton growing business when it needs subsidies, but that’s a different question. It’s not like we do much with it anymore other than export it. But maybe that will change now that folks have realized how fragile Globalism is.

    FWIW, my “OMG Scenario” is a big rock falls in the Pacific ocean. The massive tidal wave not only takes out some ports, but sinks most of the major shipping. You are now about a decade away from having enough ships built to replace that shipping capacity and your construction sites at the ports are all mucked up. Good luck with that…

    We KNOW there are frequent rock falls. We KNOW 70% of them will hit the water. It’s just a matter of time for a big enough one. A 200 foot tall wall of water really messes up ships. But at least we’ll still have Fine California Cotton…

  33. Compu Gator says:

    ossqss inquired 24 April 2020 at 4:40 am GMT:
    Who can translate the term “Yat” :-)

    At least 3 possibilities for “Yat” come to mind:
    • The Cyrillic letterѢ › (U+0462, &#1122), dating back to Church Slavonic (comparable to Old Bulgarian). The Library of Congress transliterates it as ” i͡e ” joined by a bow on top (some readers’ browsers might render the bow correctly). In Russian, the letter has been decreed obsolete since the Revolution, but judging from otherwise familiar proper names in a prerevolutionary Russian map (I forget which), it seems to have originally signified some kind of ‘E’ sound. Among modern Slavic languages, it’s been retained only in Bulgarian, but I’ve read somewhere, some time ago, that it now signifies some kind of ‘U’ sound.
    • Maybe it’s a rare example of G-rated Russian slang, as appropriate on the ISS, derived from the Cyrillic letter, meaning “obsolete” or “useless”.
    • U.S. slang(?) contraction of already grammatically substandard “you at” to “y’at”, as in the question “ISS, dis be Houston: Where y’at?” (where the apostrophe signifies only the contraction, not a glottal stop).

    Or maybe ‘ossqss’ already knows the answer, and it’s none of the above, and I’ll feel silly for posting a serious answer despite having seen his “:-)”. But what the hey-ell? It’s Friday afternoon in EDT–5 p.m. in GMT–and a 6-pack of adult beverages is still awaiting retrieval from my car.

  34. Ossqss says:

    Nope, you got it Gator. Another frequently used in my neck of the hood is Y’out in text messaging also :-)

  35. philjourdan says:

    You obsessed too much over the Rona virus. But them most of the world did. I dropped you due to it. You were suckered in like most.

    Trump could not say it. But it is a big hoax. And you were gotten. When all is said and done, the mort rate will be comparable to the flu. Not more, not less.

    Hysteria is the name of the game. And you fell for it. Welcome to the Chinese disinformation.

    I do not follow any of the Rona threads not any of the disinformation ones.

    It seems that some think this is a dream come true of their worst fears come true.

  36. H.R. says:

    philjourdan: “You obsessed too much over the Rona virus. But them most of the world did. I dropped you due to it. You were suckered in like most.”

    It’s not clear to me. Who is “you”?

    If you are referring to E.M, and you “dropped” E.M., what’s up with the comment?

    Howz ’bout backing up and taking another run at it? Your comment has me flummoxed. No judgement here. I just can’t make heads or tails of what you wrote. (Unusual for you. It’s usually quite clear just what is exactly the bee in your bonnet. Not this time.)

    Thanks.

  37. E.M.Smith says:

    And what’s s Rona?

    FWIW, numbers are still all over the place and N. Italy still not good. As a member of the cohort most prone to dying, I think it reasonable to be overly cautious.

    That said:

    Newest testing data is showing lower CFR (possibly in part due to treatments being used now), we’ve got a handle on treatments, and good vitamin status looks like it keeps you in the flu-like category. Given all that, I’ve been comfortable going for shopping runs and such. With decent fast testing, it looks like most businesses can reopen. And we’ve got a half dozen States running the experiment starting now. We’ll know in about 2 weeks.

    Were I not at ground zero in the first California hot spot, I’d have been more mellow about it as more would be known at each level of cases locally. Unfortunately, we had cases in the hundreds “near me” when China was welding people in apartments and bodies piled in the streets. Only reasonable conclusion is that is the reality.

    It is also likely that the virus is mutating to less lethal. That’s what usually happens. Mild sickness propagates more and comes to dominate. Lethal strains die with the patient.

    End result of being careful to not get it early is that now I’m likely to get a milder strain, it will arrive in a very Vit-D filled body, and there are treatments that work. A whole different ball game and one that IMHO justifies the actions I’ve taken.

  38. rhoda klapp says:

    I didn’t know where to put this, it’s an interesting survey of super-spreader events..

    https://quillette.com/2020/04/23/covid-19-superspreader-events-in-28-countries-critical-patterns-and-lessons/

  39. Another Ian says:

    Looks like a vendetta running on Willie Soon

    “I may have signed my actual death warrant.”

    https://thepointman.wordpress.com/2015/03/05/i-may-have-signed-my-actual-death-warrant/

  40. corsair red says:

    In the South you can ask ” How are you? ” and hear ” Fair to middlin.” I asked my dad, who had picked cotton, what that phrase meant. He said it’s a cotton grade. I looked it up. Folks still don’t believe me when I tell them it isn’t.
    https://www.cottoninc.com/cotton-production/quality/us-cotton-fiber-chart/grades-of-us-cotton/

  41. jim2 says:

    As part of the cohort at risk, I’m getting really annoyed with all the non-stop chatter about testing. If we had a cure, testing would be much less relevant because a cure would solve the problem. All the attention to testing deflects from finding that cure.

  42. E.M.Smith says:

    @Corsair Red:

    Isn’t, but was…

    https://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/fair-to-middling.html

    As to the derivation of ‘fair to middling’ we of course need to know what ‘middling’ referred to. The word was and is a term used by farmers to describe the quality of farm produce, especially sheep, of ordinary quality. There were several loosely defined grades of produce: ‘good’, ‘fair, ‘middling’, ‘ordinary’ and ‘poor’.
    […]
    Like sailors who, when they needed finer designations of direction than North, East, South and West, came up with South-west, North-east etc., farmers needed a name for ‘not quite fair but better than average’ and they opted for ‘fair to middling’. The earliest use of the expression ‘fair to middling’ that I can find is in the Britannia Press, October 1822:

    Minas, 16 bags, fair to middling, 8¼d.; Tenesees, 197 bales, very ordinary 5½d.
    Farmers didn’t stop there and came up with other intermediate grades, like ‘good fair’. Needing finer and finer classifications of quality, they again followed the sailors’ lead and copied their ‘North-north-east’ style. In 1873, Beeton’s Dictionary of Commerce described a delivery of cotton as:

    Good fair to good saw-ginned Surat cotton.

    In farm country I grew up hearing it used that way for some farm products. “Got a good crop on the south field, but west was only fair. East was fair to middling.”

  43. cdquarles says:

    Here is something else to chew on: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6122858/. Heh, the treatment that time forgot.

  44. cdquarles says:

    As an old Southerner, the idiom was indeed used for more than cotton. My grandparents used it to describe the garden’s output. Granny did pick cotton. She liked it and was good at it and fast with her hands; such that she was good at piece-work sewing, too (and the Northerners hated her for it). I’ve picked it too, but just to see what it was like. The mechanical picker and gin is *so* much better.

  45. H.R. says:

    @jim2 – I’m interested in testing only because I’m taking quinine + zinc as a preventive. I do recall that you bought the bark that produces quinine.

    How will I know it works unless I get tested and find out Xi’s Disease has dropped by for a visit and I didn’t get sick to any extent?

    Beyond that, I agree that testing only informs about the prevalence of the Wuhan Flu, but is useless if you don’t have a cure. By cure, I mean a treatment that knocks down the virus a peg or two, The ones who would die just get really sick. The ones who get really sick just get “the flu.” The ones with a moderate symptoms just feel a little under the weather for a couple of days. The asymptomatic never feel sick in the first place, so they won’t be asking for treatment. Best yet would be that those who would die just get a touch of the flu.

    I hold out little hope for a really effective vaccine. In a good year, when the vaccine makers guess right about the flu strains that will be going around, I understand that it’s still a coin toss whether the flu shot will prevent any particular person from getting the flu. We’ve had years of making vaccines and that’s still all the better we can do.

    But as you say, if we have a treatment or cure, who cares? You just wait until you are sick and then get treated.

    Better than a cure would be a preventive, which is really a cure that knocks out the virus before you ever realize you are even sick.

    Testing is only important now as a way to find out which treatments are working. Once some effective treatments or preventatives are confirmed by testing, then who cares about tests?

  46. cdquarles says:

    I am going to drop this here: https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-lockdown-claims-big-scalp-mayo-clinic-furloughs-cuts-pay-30000-employees-due-shutdown/.

    I’ve been to the Mayo Clinic … so that’s something disturbing. (Got delayed going there when the POTUS also dropped in. I had to wait in Chicago onboard the airplane while he was there, until the all-clear was given.)

    @H. R., one of the points about the flu shot isn’t so much about keeping you from getting it; but lessening the illness when exposed and minimizing pneumonia, whether directly from the virus or via secondary infections. So, it doesn’t have to be anything other than good enough, and most years, it is.

    That said, when this virus family comes around again, sufficiently representative sample testing will help guide actions later. Nevertheless, no testing battery is 100%, plus signs and symptoms of infectious diseases are so non-specific that “When you hear hoofbeats, think horses first, not zebras; in the USA”; yet keep the zebra in your differential diagnosis list. The key is positive predictive value, which is a function of true prevalence modified by the test battery’s true positive rates, false positive rates, true negative rates, false negative rates, sensitivity and specificity.

  47. Julian Jones says:

    https://andreaskalcker.com/en/

    Maybe POTUS has, yet again, highlighted something … See vids on link.

  48. H.R. says:

    @cdq – I’m not arguing against testing when you have a novel virus. We’re still just guessing about virulence and prevalence right now because we haven’t tested much, only the ones who really didn’t need testing in the first place because they got sick enough to need hospitalization.

    All of the numbers and models are very fuzzy right now because we have not done enough testing. That’s changing.

    Regarding vaccines, you say that most years it’s good enough. I’m saying that an array of highly effective treatments and preventatives is better.

    We have anti-malarials that are very effective and that most people can take. So far, we are getting indications that the same may be true for the Wu Hu Flu, enough variety that a Dr. can make sure that the treatment/preventative matches up to the patient. Why risk another SARS vaccine fiasco?

  49. cdquarles says:

    Not quite, H. R., recall polio. There, the vaccine was the most effective preventative. Vaccines have their place, just as antimicrobials have theirs. Recall also that the polio vaccine was improved, too, over time; so a fiasco may not necessarily happen this time.

    That all said, in order to have the most informed decision, we should consider all of the factors and the trade-offs that will happen.

  50. H.R. says:

    I haven’t forgotten polio or smallpox or rubella tetanus and a number of others. Note that most of these are one and done vaccines.

    Note also that already the Chinese virus has mutated seemingly into a milder version, but with the double-whammy version still out there. Flu vaccines seem to me to be a whack-a-mole proposition.

    As I wrote, I did think of those serious and/or deadly diseases, but something makes it possible for an immunity vaccine to be produced for those diseases. Maybe someone will stumble on what the difference is that allows a one and done vaccine.

    We still don’t have a vaccine for the common cold and flu vaccines are a crap shoot. There is no vaccine for AIDS or Ebola. Maybe someday.

    We are much closer to finding effective treatments for this disease than an effective vaccine.

  51. E.M.Smith says:

    Bacteria mutate slowly, so vacines are very stable.

    DNA replication has very good error detection and correction (because your DNA is very important to you so evolved better ECC.) DNA viruses stay fairly stable too, as do their vaccines.

    RNA is the scratch pad or working sand mold of your cell machinery. ECC (Error Correction) near zero because you will be transcibing a different transfer RNA shortly anyway. RNS viruses suffer lots of errors in replication most of which damage the virus. But with trillions of copies a year, some end up both new and better… Being different, the old vaccine doesn’t work so well…

  52. cdquarles says:

    The catch is that the proteins don’t change physical shape that much. Now charge distribution, that’s a bit different; and vaccines are directed toward making the proper distribution of antigens so that the antibodies match sufficiently to the shape and charge distribution of proteins/peptide fragments.

    Key to influenza viruses is that not only do they mutate rapidly, their proteins get recombined when passing through the various host species. If corona viruses act more influenza-like in this respect, yes, a vaccine will have years where it doesn’t work as well as others.

    Polio vaccines were attenuated live virus then killed virus. So there were times when the extant polio *was* the vaccine virus. Now, the wild virus is mostly the vaccine strains. (Hmm, maybe we should … nah, probably best not to; though nature *will* do it.)

  53. E.M.Smith says:

    Don’t know who this guy is or what he advocates, but he is part of The Village Of The Banned, and has launched another free speech oriented platform. Here’s a link
    https://londonreal.tv/episodes/

    I’m an advocate for all bypasses on censorship. Doesn’t mean I agree with what is said. Just the right to politely say it.

  54. Ossqss says:

    Ok, name that original tune I rewrote? :-)

    It’s alright to disinfect me
    It’s alright if you wont
    I’m just afraid your virulity
    Buddy, I just hope that you don’t

    There is no sense of demasking
    You cough gives you away
    Something inside you is sneaking about you
    Well, that’s all I got to say

    Maybe, Lockdown
    Please don’t give it to me
    Lockdown, will I make it through the night
    Lockdown, now I am locked in here you see
    Lockdown, it ain’t right
    It ain’t right
    It ain’t right

    Lockdown
    Please don’t give it to me
    Lockdown, I hope I make it throught the night
    Lockdown, now I am locked in here you see
    Lockdown, it ain’t right
    It ain’t right
    It ain’t right

    ™OssQss 2020
    Cheat code -https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqxns-JTTqA

  55. Phil Jourdan says:

    @HR – the “you” are those hyping on the virus threads. As I stated, I long ago abandoned them as I saw the hysteria over taking reality. So I cannot say who is the “you”. If you have read those threads, perhaps you can supply the names.

    This has been and continues to be a masterful disinformation propaganda coup by the Chicoms. Most of the civilized world crashed their economies based upon hysteria and misinformation.

    And it was aided and abetted by Soros (the king of short sellers) and the YSM (fake news). Those who promoted it were either duped or willing dupes of the disinformation.

    It allowed a lot of little Hitlers (see governors and mayors) to blossom. And it is just another attempt by the democrats to eradicate more of your rights.

    I have not made my views or contempt secret from the beginning. And whether I live or die (Frankly I think I got it in when I visited CA in late February, and developed mild symptoms a week after my return), the means do not justify the ends. Ever and especially now.

  56. H.R. says:

    @Phil Jourdan re “you”:

    Ah. I see. Thanks.

  57. Power Grab says:

    I’m jotting down a list of “perfect storm” factors for COVID-19. So far, I have these:

    1. Low vitamin D (and/or C) status.
    2. Lots of heavy metal toxicity.
    3. SARS vaccination.
    4. Microbiome imbalance.
    5. Cold, dry air.
    6. Lots of cold beverages.
    7. Lots of fear. <– This is a biggie!
    8. Low zink (what about balancing with copper?)
    9. 5G (or one of the "enhanced 4G flavors") of higher-than-usual EMF exposure for at least 6 months. Arthur Firstenberg's book "The Invisible Rainbow" was a fascinating read. I can't remember the last time I dogeared 33 pages of a single book.

  58. Another Ian says:

    Serious reading here IMO

    “The war against Christianity.”

    https://thepointman.wordpress.com/2020/04/25/the-war-against-christianity/

    AND for E.M.

    “John Stuart Mill and the theory of value”

    http://catallaxyfiles.com/2020/04/26/john-stuart-mill-and-the-theory-of-value/

  59. jim2 says:

    Nice lyrics Ossqss.

  60. Bruce Ryan says:


    watch part one first of course

  61. Bruce Ryan says:

    part one

  62. Another Ian says:

    Via Pointman

  63. H.R. says:

    @Another Ian – LOL! That is just so wrong right on. Heels-up Harris.
    .
    .
    .
    I spent part of the day making this bluebird house. We’ve had a pair house hunting around here. They won’t nest for another few weeks.

    I’ve never seen a design like this; two holes.

    It seems that if there’s a ‘home invasion’, it allows the bluebird to skip out the back and attack the invader from behind.

    Here’s what I made.

    Click to access Violett2hm.pdf

    Oh, this was designed by a serious bluebird aficionado. It seems that she has tried the design and it works very well.

  64. H.R. says:

    Huh?!?

    What happened to the link? That big-ass gap was where the link was; two lines. Maybe WP tried to put it on the comment.

    Let’s try again with a leading character… quotes. Ditch those and the pdf plane shoule be at the other end of the link

    Click to access Violett2hm.pdf

  65. H.R. says:

    Dang! Did it again.

    Oh well. I made a two-holer bluebird house.

  66. ossqss says:

    It is providing a PDF link to load in a browser HR. That is what I see anyhow. It works in Windows 10. Have not done another.

    So, are Bluebirds edible? J/K :-)

  67. E.M.Smith says:

    Different browsers do different things with PDF links / files.

    Brave on Android just does a download to my downloads directory.
    I usually get 2 or 3 before I notice the link ends in .pdf
    8-/

    Firefox on Armbian pops open a new tab to display it.

    PDFs are just a bit annoying, but a common standard.

    FWIW, My downloaded PDF shows a nice tall rectangular bird house with two holes in front, a bird width apart, and a toehold strip under them.

  68. E.M.Smith says:

    @Ossqss:

    Yes. Just ask the local ally cat ;-)

    Desirable to eat being a totally separate question…

    IIRC, the Air Force survical training includes the mantra:
    Fins, Fur, Feathers & Scales to decide what is likely safe emergency food.

    So fish, mammals, birds, reptiles. Leaves out mollusks, worms, insects some of which are edible but many of which are toxic or disease carriers. It also includes some toxic edge case animals (puffer fish / fugu) and some edible but lousy tasting (mud hens, catfish from stagnant warm water) along with some disease risks (rabbit fever), but hey, no one liner can be perfect… oh, and some with practical risks to consider (skunks).

    4 & 20 blue birds baked in a pie?

    Blue bird cacciatore? (How does a blue bird catch a tory? Same way liberals do…)

    TurDuckEnBlubird? The mind wanders….

  69. corsair red says:

    @E.M.Smith:
    Thanks for the link. That was interesting. Seems to me that coming up with the finer and finer designations was a lot of cotton-picking work, though.

  70. jim2 says:

    The below video captures something I’ve been thinking about for a while now. The reason reporters don’t “get” Trump is that Trump is extremely right-brained. Reporters are reporters in part because they are (supposedly) eloquent – therefore, left-brained. I believe Trump thinks mostly in imagery and his language reflects that fact. He “sees” solutions to complex problems, including social problems with the reporters, and the reporters left-brain boat won’t get them to shore with Trump.

  71. H.R. says:

    I got the bluebird house painted and mounted yesterday. I ran across a neat idea for the pole after a search for how other people are doing it.

    Use two pieces of galvanized 1″ Schedule 80 pipe, one ~2′ length and the other the height that you want, in my case it was 6′ for bluebird preferred height. Add in a coupler and a flange.

    Put the coupler on the short piece and drive it into the ground. (You do realize how hard it is to drive 28″ of 1″ pipe into the ground, don’t you? Today, my shoulder is saying, “Don’t you ever do that again.”)

    Put the flange on the birdhouse, screw the long pipe into the coupler, then screw the flange/birdhouse onto the top. It works a treat.

    They also recommend greasing the pole to keep out predators such as snakes, racoons, and squirrels. It seems they can climb a bare pole, but not a greased pole.

    Now we’re just waiting to see if that pair of bluebirds we’ve seen hanging around will decide to move in. Bluebirds are very picky about where they will nest.

  72. p.g.sharrow says:

    @HR; ” Today, my shoulder is saying, “Don’t you ever do that again.”
    MAN, I know the feeling. I’ve been building a 300 yard jeep trail through the woods with a chainsaw and a Mexican backhoe. My body is NOT happy! After nearly two months it is nearly done, Hurrah! now I’ll be able to drive to the firewood as well as inspect most of the property. 20 acres of farm land is a small field but 20 acres of thick woods is HUGE …pg

  73. E.M.Smith says:

    @Jim2:

    I’d agree. I have co-dominance and can shift modes. Trump is more visual / symbolic and uses verbal shorthand (so do I some times).

    I’d add 2 bits:

    He isn’t obligatory right brain. He can swap too, but has a preference.

    He “levels” for Joe Sixpack deliberately. Avoid numbers “small number of days” because most folks hate numbers. Be the WWE Good Guy Boss player as the crowd loves him, and his trash talk at opponents. Avoid flowery smooth talking as it is simultaneously drowsy inducing and suspicious. You get the idea.

    @P.G.:

    And I thought I had it bad taking out one tree….

    I hope you are not fighting Bay Laurel trees. This one wanted to bind saw blades like crazy. Very fragrant, but very dence, wood with a gummy aspect to the sawdust. It binds a hand saw tight fast. The Saws All would bind to a stall / halt if I didn’t keep moving it back and forth to drag the wood goo / shreds out.

  74. Another Ian says:

    pg

    “20 acres of farm land is a small field but 20 acres of thick woods is HUGE …pg”

    In that spirit

    “100 pounds of salt is heavier than 100 pounds of anything else” Baxter Black

  75. p.g.sharrow says:

    @EMSmith; lots of California Bay Laurel here as a second story tree or brush, I like the Laurel wood for tool handles, as it is an “evergreen”, (grows year round), It shows no growth rings and is very fibrous. That is it develops no splinters and is dense. It is somewhat flexible and resists breaking. So I get smooth handles that are nice to your hands while being a bit less stiff then Ash or Hickory. That fibrous nature makes it a bit hard to work with edged tools that are not super sharp, It burns and binds saws because of it’s sticky aromatic sap that caramelizes with friction heat.

  76. ossqss says:

    Well, I got no response from Weird Al, so I did the video myself.

    Here ya go!

  77. H.R. says:

    Ha Ha! Nice!

  78. Another Ian says:

    “Contra Michael Moore – the Simon Human Abundance Index”

    http://catallaxyfiles.com/2020/04/29/contra-michael-moore-the-simon-human-abundance-index/

  79. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    One fact the doomsters forget, or ignore, is that a an ore reserve is priced on the best most economical. Anything less rich is “not a reserve”. It economically doesn’t exist.

    But there is very little rich ore. Once used up, slightly more expensive methods are used on less good ore. BUT there is way more poor ore. And astronomical amounts of crappy ore.

    As each ore quality becomes the norm, the amount of reserves goes up, not down!

    So instead of running out, the more reserves you use, the more you have!

  80. philjourdan says:

    Where to put your money is a gamble. However, a sure bet is – not in China. The useful idiots can defend them, but the leaders understand they were scrod by China. ANd will not make the same mistake twice – until the liberals take over again,

  81. H.R. says:

    We have bluebirds checking out the bluebird box. Some sparrows are checking it out, too.

    If the two-holer works as touted, the bluebirds can slip out the back and drive off the sparrows.

    We’ll see.

    Who wouldn’t want some of these hanging around? They are insect eaters, too.

  82. E.M.Smith says:

    The Western Bluebird is a bit different:

    The western bluebird (Sialia mexicana) is a small thrush, about 15 to 18 cm (5.9 to 7.1 in) in length. Adult males are bright blue on top and on the throat with an orange breast and sides, a brownish patch on back, and a gray belly and undertail coverts. Adult females have a duller blue body, wings, and tail than the male, a gray throat, a dull orange breast, and a gray belly and undertail coverts. Immature western bluebirds have duller colors than the adults, they also have spots on their chest and back. These color patterns help play a part in the mating ritual, when males compete for breeding rights to females.

    They are sometimes confused with other bluebirds, but they can be distinguished without difficulty. The western bluebird has a blue (male) or gray (female) throat, the eastern bluebird has an orange throat, and the mountain bluebird lacks orange color anywhere on its body. It has a stocky build, and a thin straight beak with a fairly short tail.

    Its posture consists of perching upright on wire fences and high perches. The western bluebird pounces on the ground when looking for food, such as worms and berries. It also flies to catch aerial prey, like insects, when available. The western bluebird consumes water from nearby streams and commonly used bird baths.

    We also have the Stellar’s Jay:

    The Steller’s jay (Cyanocitta stelleri) is a jay native to western North America, closely related to the blue jay found in the rest of the continent, but with a black head and upper body. It is also known as the long-crested jay, mountain jay, and pine jay. It is the only crested jay west of the Rocky Mountains. It is also sometimes colloquially called a “blue jay” in the Pacific Northwest, but is distinct from the blue jay (C. cristata) of eastern North America.

    Note the blue steak over the beak. That makes him Pacific Coastal sub type:

  83. H.R. says:

    It’s pretty easy to spot the difference in the bluebirds.

    I don’t think I’ve ever seen a Stellar’s Jay, though I lived in Ca for three years and spent many weekends out in the mountains or deserts or forests depending on where we (I had 3 roomies) pointed the car.

  84. Another Ian says:

    “Lessons from the Pandemic about Climate Change”

    Quite a list here

    http://catallaxyfiles.com/2020/05/01/lessons-from-the-pandemic-about-climate-change/

  85. jim2 says:

    Yep, the party that loves to dredge up slavery every 5 minutes just loves Chinese labor.

  86. Another Ian says:

    Anything to get CAGW back in the headlines!

    “I no longer care about covid19, for I have been awakened to the danger of farting oysters …

    Oyster flatulence worries climate scientists

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-environment/news/oyster-flatulence-worries-climate-scientists/

    Via Jo Nova

  87. Another Ian says:

    And keep things like this out of the headlines

    “Why Was Flynn Targeted? – A Timeline Review of the Three Phases….”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/05/01/why-was-flynn-targeted-a-timeline-review-of-the-three-phases/

  88. philjourdan says:

    @another Ian – Yea, I think this fake virus is going to be recognized as the death of AGW. Not the affirmation. Time will tell.

    While AGW is decades in the awakening (according to the moving timeline) this one is short term. And when people realize the damage of the hysteria, and the danger of the despots, they are going to be a lot more cautious about abrogating their rights to dictator wannabees.

    I am old enough that I doubt I will see the fruition of my prognostication. So only hope my progeny will benefit from the collective wisdom and ennui of the populace and hysterics.

  89. jim2 says:

    So PDS has a new video about “climate change.” It features Oreskes, Mann, Hansen, and the usual suspects along with Saint Greta. I was amazed watching it that I felt taken back in time … pretty much the same ole BS as 30 years ago. Of course the solution recommended by that POS was “green” energy.

    Immediately after that, I viewed Moore’s Planet of the Humans. It negated every solution brought up by the PBS piece. Moore is getting a ration of brownish goo for his efforts, a joy to see :)

    Beautiful.

    Nuclear Power wasn’t mentioned as a solution in either, but that will be the solution.

  90. cdquarles says:

    @ossqss, to which I say “of course”; since biology, embodied in chemical entities, is inherently mutable. Evolution is a tautology, and as such, provides *no* information. What does provide information is being observant. The reality is that all embodied life has its body die at some point; so to be fruitful and multiply simply means being good enough to do so at a specific here-and-now.

  91. jim2 says:

    Moore felt the need to defend himself from the avalanche of brownish goo coming at him from the LEFT.

  92. Terry Jackson says:

    Stolen from Powerline Blog, a recommended treatment for COVID-19 by practicing Doctors.

    Click to access Treating_Covid-19_in_ER_2_-_April_6_2020_final.pdf

    They first go thru a discussion, then outline the treatment. WHO and the CDC are not treated lightly.

  93. YMMV says:

    Saw this on WUWT. Watch it before it is disappeared. Fauci is the modern Dr. Frankenstein, or at least Dr. Frankenstein’s enabler, piecing together virus bits that could cause a pandemic. In theory! /sarc

  94. Chris in Calgary says:

    Regarding the ongoing controversy about Pluto not being an (official) planet:

    Even Jupiter can’t clear its own orbit. There’s an asteroid circling the Sun in the opposite direction to everything else, that “shares orbital space with Jupiter”.

    Therefore, Jupiter is not a planet.
    It’s a short hop from that to, no planets exist at all. Reductio ad absurdum

  95. Another Ian says:

    “Understanding Why The New York Times, Washington Post, Politico and Buzzfeed Cannot Tell The Truth About Spygate…”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/05/04/understanding-why-the-new-york-times-washington-post-politico-and-buzzfeed-cannot-tell-the-truth-about-spygate/#more-190733

    Links to a dig by Steve McIntyre

  96. YMMV says:

    RT reminds us that today is 50 years since the Kent State massacre.
    https://www.rt.com/op-ed/487729-us-kent-state-massacre/
    In this time of overreaction and paranoia, it’s good to remember why we need to chill.

    Actually, this event would have been forgotten except for Neil Young’s song “Ohio”.

  97. E.M.Smith says:

    Just OMG obvious retro wise…

    From a Timcast video…

    Folks who do not want paparazzi coverage just need to wear shirts, hats, whatever, naming Charley Mello aka Voldemott aka Eric Ciarlemela on them. It will be banned from Youtube, Faceplant, etc.

    JUST OMG what an idea!

    Anyone plagued by paparazzi need only speak the name, and be saved…

  98. Another Ian says:

    FWIW

    ” Nancy Ross
    May 5, 2020 at 12:13 am ”

    And following comments

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/05/05/may-5-2020-reader-tips/#comment-1314173

  99. Another Ian says:

    Another FWIW

    “New York Times calls for Tara Reade to be Chappaquiddicked”

    http://catallaxyfiles.com/2020/05/05/new-york-times-calls-for-tara-reade-to-be-chappaquiddicked/#comments

  100. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    Chasing down the links I ended at:

    https://jrnyquist.blog/2019/09/11/the-secret-speech-of-general-chi-haotian/

    Which is both chilling and matches my personal interactions with Chinese from overseas. ABC American Born Chinese, are less afflicted by the Chinese sense of superiority, but still reflect some of the notions of “One Chinese Heart”.

    I do wonder if China and the CCP will be stupid enough to start overt war. The present economic debilitation must be attractive to some of the war mongers. I could see them pitching the idea of an EMP nuke in space to take us out as world power (and making it look Iranian to get our military misdirected).

    The sad part is the POV that only more land will fix China’s living space problem. Cleaning up their act would work wonders. Just clean up the horrible pollution. Then build nuclear powered vertical farms in skyscrapers. All the technologies needed are in use.

    Putting up 50 story buildings even with only 50% land coverage (space for roads, light, air flow, views) gives 25x the basic surface area. Then many hydroponic systems stack trays on about 2 foot intervals. Call it 4x per floor. That’s 25 x 4 = 100 times the grow area. Now the fun bits: It can go on any crap land anywhere, so the “useless” degraded desert areas are fine. Water use is dramatically lower (like 90% lower) so desalination becomes economical. Growing conditions are optimal so production much better. You can crop year round on a faster cycle, so radishes give 12 crops per year, lettuces 6, and choy similar. Aquaculture of fish & shrimp is easily integrated. All up, you can get about 600 to 1000 times the production per unit land area, but using crap land instead of “arable” and brackish water instead of fresh.

    Much easier, much more secure an outcome, and much preferable to conquest and war for dirt.

  101. Another Ian says:

    E.M.

    “Much easier, much more secure an outcome, and much preferable to conquest and war for dirt.”

    Like socialism – wasn’t applied properly before (/s)

  102. Julian Jones says:

    The ‘architect’ of the UK lockdown (and many other flawed epidemiological predictions) :

    “Government scientist Neil Ferguson resigns after breaking lockdown rules to meet his married lover

    Prof Ferguson allowed the woman to visit him at home during the lockdown while lecturing the public on the need for strict social distancing.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/exclusive-government-scientist-neil-ferguson-resigns-breaking/

  103. Julian Jones says:

    EM – ‘Best least cost technology’ for food production on ” crap land anywhere … the “useless” degraded desert areas”, (excluding the small percentage of the world’s deserts that are hyper-arid). Just fine for central Sahara (and just fine for much of SW USA). Rainwater harvesting and infiltration :
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/18/how-water-is-helping-to-end-the-first-climate-change-war
    And the Chinese are fully aware of similar, having thus brought an area the size France back into food productivity :
    https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2007/03/15/restoring-chinas-loess-plateau

    (I have worked on similar Chinese / Malaysian funded projects in Sudan; using plants to clean oil wastewaters to enable irrigated agriculture and restore transpiration to improve rainfall, as the projects above also do.)

  104. vcmathjm says:

    Not sure where to put this links but i think it will be of interest to this group. The Eastern Virginia Medical School has a Covid19 page that shows suggested treatment protocols, These are changing, sometimes daily, so I am giving the page link not the link to to current document. Lots of hard won information.
    http://www.evms.edu/covidcare

  105. cdquarles says:

    @vcmathjm,
    Thanks.

  106. p.g.sharrow says:

    A dissertation on future investments world wide. Old 2015 piece, but well worth your time as to an overview of trends due to weather, populations, transportation and resources.

    Interesting testing his proposals against present conditions…pg

  107. Ed Forbes says:

    The courts are finally taking notice
    .
    “.. A conservative justice on Wisconsin’s Supreme Court is questioning whether Democratic Gov. Tony Evers’s stay-at-home orders are the “definition of tyranny.”..”
    .
    My question for you is, where in the constitution did the people of Wisconsin confer authority on a single, unelected Cabinet secretary to compel almost 6 million people to stay at home and close their businesses and face imprisonment if they don’t comply, with no input from the Legislature, without the consent of the people?”
    .
    “ Republicans hold a 5-2 majority in the Wisconsin Supreme Court.”
    .
    https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/496231-wisconsin-supreme-court-justice-questions-whether-stay-at-home-orders

  108. YMMV says:

    @vcmathjm, “The Eastern Virginia Medical School has a Covid19 page that shows suggested treatment protocols”

    Thanks for the link. I would like to see such links for other places. For example, Sweden.

    The Swedish stats are here:
    https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
    women / men:
    cases 12,985 / 10,231
    ICU 402 / 1,202 **** why so different?
    deaths 1,243 / 1,611

    The graph of number of deaths per day has fallen quickly to near zero.
    ICU/day is going down, but not so fast.
    new cases/day is going down, but very variable.

    Sweden with the voluntary restrictions is doing quite well.
    Particularly in solving the deaths problem. What are they doing differently there?
    (deaths shown are with covid, regardless of the cause of death)

  109. A C Osborn says:

    YMMV, is there a high population of Vitamin D deficient black people of Virginia.

  110. Simon Derricutt says:

    Just for interest, news here that some French Army athletes seem to have suffered Covid-19 last October after a tournament in Wuhan https://actu.orange.fr/france/coronavirus-des-athletes-francais-contamines-a-wuhan-en-octobre-2019-magic-CNT000001pX5RE.html
    Seems like a lot of the information we initially got was not true.

    The vit-D link seems very strong, yet there’s almost no mention of this in the media. Maybe too simple and cheap, so instead they are saying this can only be solved by a vaccine. Given the ADE problem and the mutability of the virus, I suspect the vaccine may not be a good option.

    I’ve heard on F-24 that Turkey is using HCQ and are seeing fewer deaths than others, but no link for that and it may become un-newsed if someone realises that’s against WHO guidelines.

    Still seems to me that the official responses to this have not been logical….

    Meantime, in the UK the all-causes death rate is around twice that expected, with around 24k deaths per week rather than 12k. Given the knowledge that WuFlu causes blood coagulation, thus strokes, heart attacks, kidney failures, etc., it seems likely that most of those extra deaths will be a result of WuFlu even though only around 1/3 of them state Covid-19 on the death certificate.

  111. jim2 says:

    Turkey claims success treating COVID-19 with broad use of drug touted by Trump

    By Pinar Sevinclidir

    April 30, 2020 / 7:09 AM / CBS News

    Istanbul — Turkey has the biggest coronavirus outbreak in the Middle East, with more than 117,000 confirmed infections. More than 3,000 people have died. But the government claims to have a lower fatality rate than the global average estimated by the World Health Organization at over 3%.

    The Turkish government imposed weekend-only lockdowns and banned only those under the age of 20 and over 65 from leaving their homes during the week, in an effort to limit the economic impact of the pandemic.

    Turkey’s Ministry of Health says the relatively low death toll is thanks to treatment protocols in the country, which involve two existing drugs — the controversial anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine touted by President Trump, and Japanese antiviral favipiravir.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-covid-19-treatment-turkey/

  112. H.R. says:

    Greta and her pals keep plugging away. The kids are suing 5 countries. The kids all happen to be brainwashed ignoramuses, but who better to put out front? The GEBs are hiding behind kids, now.

    Here’s a decent article on Bustle (never heard of ’em) for the facts of the matter, though it is written in a highly sympathetic tone and doesn’t question the kids’ premises.

    https://www.bustle.com/p/greta-thunberg-filed-a-climate-lawsuit-with-15-other-kids-heres-what-to-know-18800158

  113. A C Osborn says:

    YMMV, don’t worry, I misread your post.

  114. YMMV says:

    A C Osborn: “a high population of Vitamin D deficient black people of Virginia.”

    Yes, Vit-D deficiency is much too common, and they have it much worse.

    Now we can add to that — They also have higher levels of Von Willebrand Factor (VWF) which is linked to thrombosis. VWF is involved in blood clotting.


    Race and blood type is discussed at minute 18.

    My previous comment was about Sweden’s lower death rate. I don’t know what they are doing differently. A comment on WUWT points out that we should also look at Turkey and Morocco, which are using HCQ.

    This graph says it all for Turkey versus France
    (although the HCQ idea came from France, it is banned there)

    and Morocco

  115. A C Osborn says:

    YMMV, I don’t understand why you think Sweden’s Death rate is that good, their Deaths/Million Population is far higher than Virgina.
    So what are you using for comparison?

  116. YMMV says:

    The deaths per day data from the Sweden Public Health Authority does not match what worldometers shows which says it gets its data from that same source. But assuming that the Swedish version is correct, their deaths per day have fallen very fast. So I conclude that they must be doing something right. But what?

    That is a “now” question, not a historical one, so I don’t care what the deaths up to now have been, so I am not looking at cumulative data.

    In particular, I want to know the rate of deaths per case or the rate of deaths per ICU cases.
    I don’t care about the rate of deaths per million population. That stat doesn’t mean much when the regions are countries because it averages the hot urban centers together with the rural regions. If smaller regions were used it would be more meaningful. But that’s my minority opinion — YMMV.

    The virus is not going away, not completely, so we need to find the best ways to prevent getting infected and the best ways to treat it if (when?) you do get it.

  117. A C Osborn says:

    YMMV, for much more data on Sweden go to Wikipedia here.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden

    They have the regional data.
    They are doing much worse than tehir Nordic neighbhours and Czechia.

  118. ossqss says:

    This was quite interesting, and sent to me by someone reputable this time :-)

    I am in process of Vetting some of the questionable items, but so far it stacks up. Pretty much parallels Climate Science from these shoes. Think about that for a minute.

    Be patient, as the beginning had me a bit skeptical.

  119. ossqss says:

    This was quite interesting, and sent to me by someone reputable this time :-)

    I am in process of Vetting some of the questionable items, but so far it stacks up. Pretty much parallels Climate Science from these shoes. Think about that for a minute.

    Be patient, as the beginning had me a bit skeptical.

  120. ossqss says:

    Humm, the video appears to have taken the time stamp of where I started this comment as a starting point for the video embedded? So, a link is not really just a link anymore.

    Gosh, I hope the webcam video from my PC isn’t in that link….. It would really bore somebody. Doh!

  121. ossqss says:

    Seems my post had a stuttering problem also. Gheeze,,,,,,

    This was interesting also.

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1477893920302179

  122. YMMV says:

    @ossqss sciencedirect article
    “Early treatment of COVID-19 patients with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin: A retrospective analysis of 1061 cases in Marseille, France”

    “1048 (98.7%) of patients who received the HCQ+AZ combination are cured so far.”

    As a conclusion, based on our experience, we consider reasonable to follow the recommendations made in Asian countries for the control of COVID-19, notably in Korea and China that consist in early testing as many patients as possible and treating them with available drugs where this strategy has produced much better results than in countries where no active policy has been implemented outside containment. In China, drugs that were recommended were primarily HCQ but also α-interferon, lopinavir, ritonavir and umifenovir [27], in Korea, recommended drugs were lopinavir/ritonavir and chloroquine [28]. In the context of a pandemic with a lethal respiratory virus, we believe that early detection of positive cases and carefully controlled treatment with safe and well-tolerated drugs should be generalized in outpatient medicine, i.e. in individuals with mild symptoms before signs of severity appear. Strict attention should be paid to contraindications and possible interactions with concomitant medication. Finally, there is a need to repurpose existing drugs and evaluate these in controlled trials where possible in the constraints of a pandemic.

  123. YMMV says:

    @A C Osborn, “They are doing much worse than tehir Nordic neighbhours and Czechia.”

    I’ve looked at lots of graphs. I don’t see that it is much worse for new deaths. Perhaps you could point me to a link. What attracted my attention to Sweden was new cases going up and new deaths going down. The simplest assumption is that the number of deaths is some fixed percentage of the number of cases, with a lag. Of course that ratio is not a fixed number. We would expect that as we learn how to treat this disease, we would get better at it. (Compared to learning now, for use in the next pandemic with the same virus. sarc?)

    I’ve seen graphs of this for some countries (not all). Denmark is showing a very high recovery rate.

    Thanks for that Wikipedia link — at the bottom it shows the Swedish graphs with English labels.

  124. A C Osborn says:

    YMMV, I used worldometers and wiki.
    I had a snapshot on the 28th of March of the top 50 countries when I was analysing the UK & the Princess Diamond.
    I then used that as a start point to calculate the growth rate of various countries here are the ones I was talking about to date.
    Sweden Growth rate in Cases = 6.5 in Deaths = 26.7 (from a start of 110)
    Norway Growth rate in Cases = 1.9 in Deaths = 8.6
    Netherlands Growth rate in Cases = 3.8 in Deaths = 6.7
    Denmark Growth rate in Cases = 4.2 in Deaths = 7.0
    Switzerland Growth rate in Cases = 2.0 in Deaths = 6.0
    Czechia Growth rate in Cases = 2.9 in Deaths = 20.2 (from a start of just 13)
    Austria Growth rate in Cases = 1.8 in Deaths = 7.1
    Luxembourg Growth rate in Cases = 2.1 in Deaths = 5.4
    I have spent about 6 weeks looking at data, unfortunately I didn’t keep most of it.
    I used Wiki to look at Population & Population Density of the country and it’s capital, the size and throughput of the capitals main Airport, whether they have a subway.
    I looked at first case date, dates of introduction of “controls” and the type of control.
    I have also calculated the deaths/Cases as well
    As you can see Sweden really hasn’t controlled the growth as well as countries around it.
    The countries of very large populations & high population densities have suffered very badly because they didn’t bring in their controls early enough and the COVID-19 was already well spread and spreading very quickly.

  125. Simon Derricutt says:

    ACO – note that the “first case” data is very suspect. Here in France it’s first been pushed back to December 2019 and then October. In the UK, my daughter’s doctor estimates she (and her mum) had it in February in the Edinburgh area. I expect they weren’t the first, and that the disease has been in the population for months longer than the official dates.

    Could be that the Swedes made a better call. If they could also use a better protocol for medication then they could come out best with a shorter higher curve but fewer overall excess deaths. By not trashing their economies they are better placed for the future, too.

    It will be a while before we have enough reliable data to decide who had the best strategy.

  126. A C Osborn says:

    Simon, only a valid test will decide if it was COVID-19 or Australian flu.
    I know about the much earlier cases and I am not surprised at all, seeing what went on in Wuhan.
    But the Swedes have not had a short higher curve, it is quite extended.
    Comparing them to surounding countries shows they are not doing well.
    Look at the current new daily cases
    Sweden around 400/day
    Norway around 50/day
    Netherlands around 300/day
    Denmark around 150/day
    Switzerland around <100/day
    Czechia around 75/day
    Austria around 50/day
    Luxembourg around 20/day

    There also mant Eastern European countries doing much better than them as well.

  127. rhoda klapp says:

    New cases are determined by the number and targets of tests. They are not predictive or comparable between countries.

  128. A C Osborn says:

    rhodda, you can of course take in to account the number of tests conducted, but I only have totals at the moment, so I will add them to the list above, because they still tell a story.
    Sweden around 400/day total tests = 148,500
    Norway around 50/day total tests = 189,657
    Netherlands around 300/day total tests = 243,227
    Denmark around 150/day total tests = 284,480
    Switzerland around <100/day total tests 290,365
    Czechia around 75/day total tests = 286,821
    Austria around 50/day total tests = 292,254
    Luxembourg around 20/day total tests = 50,533

    Note that apart from Luxembourg, Sweden has the lowest testing rate of any other country.
    Add it all together with growth rate and cases/day and it shows just how poorly Sweden are doing.

  129. p.g.sharrow says:

    It is really hard to make much sense of the present data as you are comparing Oranges to Donuts, due to the way the data is gathered and presented country to country or even state to state. Lots of incentives to cook the books or fudge the numbers to fit the required “Story” So at present I will settle on my SWAG gathered over 70+years of experience.
    Stay healthy! take your vitamin D, You will be infected, survive it and become immune is the only long term solution to this virus.
    Now is the time to take back our freedoms or this bureaucratic infection will lead to slavery to bureaucratic whim that can not be cured…pg

  130. cdquarles says:

    I’m not so sure Sweden is doing poorly. There’s a lot of variation and so little information on true positives, false positives, true negatives and false negatives. There is even less information that seems to exist or be reported about true prevalence rates. True prevalence rates are key, in my opinion.

    I have looked at the French study linked. It is suggestive and is confirmatory considering similar studies elsewhere. It is limited in that there were only 1000 folk looked at and they used 1920 statistical methods in it. P-values should not be used.

  131. A C Osborn says:

    I don’t see much gain in lying about the numbers in Europe, other than to show you are doing better than others.
    But the people are still dead.

  132. Ossqss says:

    Facinating, if it has not already been posted here. So many threads open here now, I get lost.

    https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/

  133. Power Grab says:

    @ A C Osborn re:
    “I don’t see much gain in lying about the numbers in Europe, other than to show you are doing better than others.
    But the people are still dead.”

    I have been spending most of my time online looking at Twitter. Lots of people are getting on there and saying that they are NOT dead, even though someone spread the word that they are, and that they died from Covid.

    Others get on and say that, even though the official paperwork says their loved one died from Covid, it was really something else that killed them.

    If the hospitals get (what is it? $13 grand?) just for hospitalizing someone, they get $39,000 if they intubate them.

    Since people are avoiding hospitals for fear of contracting Covid, hospitals are laying off staff because they have no work for them to.

    I know the hospitals in hot spots on the East Coast are busier, but most of the country that is not the case. We don’t need a one-size-fits-all solution. And you won’t increase your lifespan or quality of life if you try to sterilize your body.

  134. cdquarles says:

    I had run across that one earlier, ossqss, and posted it upthread :). Thanks for the second :).

  135. cdquarles says:

    Yes! Lt. Gen Flynn got justice! See here: https://twitter.com/Techno_Fog/status/1258466802864095240, now he should sue the heck out of the DOJ for a malicious prosecution and sue the heck out of Covington and Burling for malpractice.

  136. cdquarles says:

    And given other stuff I’ve seen, explains why zinc, the chloroquines and azithromycin can work for some. You have to hit it early, though, for best results. Do NOT wait for someone to get started in immune overreaction and get widespread adverse cell responses, such as diffuse intravascular coagulation.

  137. cdquarles says:

    Here is something to look at, too: https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1257392347010215947. So, yes, if school age children are, in some places, truly transmission vectors, and being in close contact indoors is where much, if not all, person-to-person contact transmission occurs, then yes, schools should be shut down early. If things have gone on too long and/or children are not significant asymptomatic spreaders, then it makes no sense to close schools. It is time to reopen them where necessary (like band or sports practice or chemistry labs). For much of what schooling does, you don’t have to have in-person methods now, as long as the internet is still up.

  138. E.M.Smith says:

    From the twitter thread, the document on immunity:

    https://www.cell.com/immunity/fulltext/S1074-7613(20)30183-7

    Where you can download the PDF.

  139. E.M.Smith says:

    The Facebook video in that Zerohedge article clarifies some of the questionable things I’d seen in Fauchi & CDC actions. Like letting asymptomatic spreading continue for weeks after it was known, and using a botched “study” to diss HCQ while promoting a largly ineffective patented treatment. Ignoring early treatments and waiting for massive infection consequences prior to starting treatments. It all looks like bad decisions… unless your goal is profit from it.

  140. E.M.Smith says:

    I’d heard about the flu vaccine leading to more regular colds some time ago. This article has an interesting factoid in it:
    https://www.disabledveterans.org/2020/03/11/flu-vaccine-increases-coronavirus-risk/

    UPDATE 3/19/2020: According to the chief medical officer for England, cited by news media publisher Mirror, Britons who received the influenza vaccine for this flu season were cautioned to self-isolate for 12 weeks as they fall into the government’s “high risk” category.

    With a link to:

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-top-medic-warns-anyone-21708701

    Coronavirus: Top medic warns anyone who gets the flu jab should stay at home
    People who get the winter flu jab are firmly advised to shield themselves from the coronavirus by isolating for 12 weeks, the deputy chief medical officer for England warns

    Research behind it:

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X19313647?via%3Dihub

  141. ossqss says:

    Here is the bitchute edition of that deleted YouTube video.

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/IB3ijQuLkkUr/

  142. E.M.Smith says:

    I put this in another thread too, but it works here too.

    I found that Bitchute has a menu of topic areas. It is hidden as the set of three gray bars just under the word “BIT” on the upper left side. Click it to toggle. Makes Bitchute a lot more usable.

  143. YMMV says:

    @cdquarles, “If things have gone on too long and/or children are not significant asymptomatic spreaders, then it makes no sense to close schools.”

    Good interview with Dr. Anders Tegnall, the man behind Sweden’s controversial viral mitigation strategy.

    Sweden thought that they could protect the elderly in care homes. They were surprised when they could not. Nobody has been able to do that. On the other hand, they are still very confident that keeping the schools open was the right thing to do, for several reasons.
    https://thefatemperor.com/latest-trends-in-our-viral-issue-europe-and-sweden-interview-update/

    Since Sweden was free-thinking enough to go their own way on lockdowns, I was expecting that they also went their own way on treatment protocols. I have not been able to find anything on that. I believe that HCQ can be used there, although some regions have banned it.

    There is one clinical trial of Hydroxychloroquine with the Swedish Medical Center foundation.
    http://swedishfoundation.org/responding-covid-19-funding-opportunities

    Henry Kaplan, M.D., a revered Swedish physician and researcher is designing a clinical trial using hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malaria and immunosuppressive drug. Dr. Kaplan will administer it to our first responders and caregivers to study its effectiveness in treating mild COVID-19 symptoms—and preventing the disease altogether.

    I was wondering the other day whatever happened to the guy in NYC who revealed that ventilators were bad news? Hero or punished?
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ventilators-doctor-movement

    What we see in this crisis is that individuals can make a difference (have an idea and just do it), bureaucracies cannot. As in socialism, but it goes for any bureaucracy. Those in charge can find millions of reasons to say no, including CYA, and those in charge usually did not get there by being radical. Except for American Exceptionalism.

  144. A C Osborn says:

    Of course Dr. Anders Tegnall is saying how well it is working for Sweden, it’s his baby.
    Others not so much.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8298081/Norway-lifts-lockdown-schools-opening-Monday.html

  145. E.M.Smith says:

    Clean Up On Isle Joe!

    Court documents backing up Tara Reade…

  146. Compu Gator says:

    Meanwhile, today is the 75th anniversary of V.E.-Day (8 May 1945), the formal end of World War II in the European Theater. E.g.:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victory_in_Europe_Day;
    https://www.nationalww2museum.org/about-us/notes-museum/75th-anniversary-v-e-day-remembrance-veteran-jim-baynham-0 : “A 75th Anniversary of V-E Day Remembrance with Veteran Jim Baynham”.

    I fear that the U.S.A. has retained enough manufacturing capacity to do the retooling that was a major factor in winning that war: Turning automobile factories into bomber & fighter factories, and kitchen-appliance factories into tank factories. And back then. it wasn’t Arabia, Iraq, Iran, nor the Former Soviet Union that was the world’s greater producer of petrochemicals (e.g., high octane gasoline for our P-51 “Mustangs”); it was still the U.S.A.

  147. Compu Gator says:

    Compu Gator replied 8 May 2020 at 10:00 pm GMT:
    I fear that the U.S.A. has [
    negation inadvertently omitted] retained enough manufacturing capacity [….]

    Ah, Day-yam! My posted 2nd paragraph should’ve read:
    I fear that the U.S.A. has not retained enough manufacturing capacity [….]

    Let’s see: Which recent globalist U.S. presidents were aggressive in giving away U.S.-created technology to Asian countries? Esp. accepting Red Chinese demands for “technology transfers”? Which one smugly claimed that “these jobs are not coming back”? All of which provided what benefits in return to the U.S. citizens whom they’re supposed to have been elected to serve? Hmmm?

  148. Power Grab says:

    Gee, I wonder whatever happened to all those “clunkers” that had their engines disabled and taken off the road in the Cash for Clunkers programs? I wonder how much metal disappeared?

  149. Compu Gator says:

    E.M.Smith replied 5 May 2020 at 2:02 pm GMT:
    [….] The sad part is the POV that only more land will fix China’s living space problem.

    Ja, Wir brauchen lebensraum! That’s the prescient theme of Tom Clancy’s [†] Bear and Dragon (2000) [*]. He assumed a continuing population decline in the ethnic-Russian population [#], and uncertain loyalties of the relatively sparse indigenous Asian populations in Siberia. I have no doubt that he was well aware of the nontrivial SinoRussian border conflicts provoked by Red Chinese demands in S.E. Siberia, focused on the Argun, Amur, and Ussuri Rivers thro’ the 1960s [@].

    Clancy did rely on an optimistic assumption that after the widely reported “collapse of the Soviet Union” (1991), detente would blossom into coöperation with the Russkis, making the U.S.A. into nonce allies against the Red Chinese. And his remedies did depend on a fictitious temporary deployment of U.S. Army armored/mechanized forces to the Middle East for war games with allies in that region.

    ——-
    Note †: Thomas Leo Clancy Jr.: 1947–2013 (only age 66). No wonder I haven’t seen any new novels written by himself in several years! I’m a big fan of his geopolitical novels. Beware that his readers would benefit from learning a little bit of German and Russian military vocabulary, which he uses but never explains.

    Note *: https://mysterysequels.com/tom-clancy-books-in-order.

    Note #: Turn-of-the-century (i.e., 20th/21st C.) demographics of Western countries were documented in detail by Pat Buchanan in his depressing The Death of the West: How Dying Populations and Immigrant Invasions Imperil Our Culture and Civilization (2001). Of course, Buchanan’s book is related to Der Untergang des Abendlandes, by Oswald Spengler (1923). Translated to English as the titles The Decline of the West, or more literally, The Downfall of the Occident. That it’s a 2-volume work is probably why I’ve never tried to get a start on reading it. Altho’ I might get more enthusiastic about a bilingual edition, if such a thing exists.

    Note @: Red Chinese demands that attempted arrogantly to bully, while at the same time claiming that they were trying to redress historical victimhood resulting from diplomatic agreements with the Russian Empire: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_border_conflict. We United Statesians mostly tuned it out at the time, altho’ it was no secret that both had nuclear weapons to launch if any conflict overheated.

  150. ossqss says:

    Just sayin, from October 2001.

  151. YMMV says:

    The strange tale of Remdesivir and its brother which is a miracle cure for a nasty cat virus.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/05/remdesivir-cats/611341/

    Gilead invented and patented GS-441524, too. Its scientists co-authored the UC Davis studies showing effectiveness against FIP. But the company has refused to license GS-441524 for animal use, out of fear that its similarity to remdesivir could interfere with the human drug’s FDA-approval process—originally for Ebola. When that failed, and a global pandemic of a novel coronavirus later arose, the company began testing it against COVID-19. Remdesivir has a small but clever modification that makes it better at entering cells, but it and GS-441524 work in exactly the same way to inhibit viruses.

  152. Another Ian says:

    E.M.

    Some interesting posts over at The Air Vent (IMO)

    Start from the top

    https://noconsensus.wordpress.com/

  153. Another Ian says:

    Latest Pointman

    “Lockdown thoughts.”

    https://thepointman.wordpress.com/2020/05/09/lockdown-thoughts/

    Plus

    “Climate Alarmism and The Prat Principle.”

    https://thepointman.wordpress.com/2012/05/18/climate-alarmism-and-the-prat-principle/

    With wider application these days (IMO)

  154. Another Ian says:

    “When The President Does It, That Means That It’s Not Illegal”

    And the comments

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/05/10/when-the-president-does-it-that-means-that-its-not-illegal-3/

  155. Power Grab says:

    @ Anyone:

    Is there a web site that has up-to-date lockdown schedules for all the states?

  156. E.M.Smith says:

    A each State is making it up as they go along, my guess would be no.

  157. philjourdan says:

    @Power Grab

    Check your Governor. I f there is a D after the name,you are closed. If there is an R, you are open.

  158. cdquarles says:

    Ron Clutz has a good overview article about Covid-19 antibody (serology) testing and what information you can get from it here: https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2020/05/13/virus-infections-and-antibodies/.

  159. philjourdan says:

    Sundance does it again! – https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/05/13/flashback-james-comey-explains-fbi-unmasking-in-2017-today-the-fbi-is-conflating-two-collection-aspects/

    The reason for so many unmasking of Gen Flynn was to hide the illegal wiretap on Flynn! That there were no unmasking requests from the time of the phone call until the Obama meeting means they already knew what was in the conversation! And that was only possible if the FBI illegally wiretapped Flynn!

    This is mot a counter espionage case. This is simply an illegal spying operation by an outgoing president on an incoming president.

    It is bigger than Watergate. It is treason.

  160. Another Ian says:

    ” On 5/14/2020 at 2:35 AM, lorenzo said:

    Our governor opened restaurants back up two days ago . Most of them just took out a few tables so there is more room between guest .

    People flocked in. Many of them going out of their way to thank the owners .

    Look at it this way , Lincoln , the second largest city in Nebraska with just under 300 thousand ( known) residents has had three yes that’s right three (3) THREE as in one two three THREE DEATHS .

    THREE DEATHS

    YOUR MORE LIKLY TO GET HIT BY A FRICKING BUS!!!! ”

    Depending on whether this happens or not

    “Second wave starting in Iran”

    http://joannenova.com.au/2020/05/second-wave-starting-in-iran/#comment-2330107

    At least you’re don’t have “Inchallah” as a predictive.

    (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inshallah)

  161. Terry Jackson says:

    https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/373491

    Solar minima, pandemics, and volcanoes

  162. Another Ian says:

    “Hokkaido’s second wave was bigger than the first: close those borders”

    http://joannenova.com.au/2020/05/hokkaidos-second-wave-was-bigger-than-the-first-close-those-borders/

  163. cdquarles says:

    Here is a tantalizing new, though limited (small numbers) study of antibody cross-reactivity: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.14.095414v1. I am not surprised.

  164. H.R. says:

    Well, there’s one less squirrel around for the dogs to bark at.

    I put out the cage trap Friday and this morning, there was one inside who couldn’t resist the raw peanuts.

    Squirrels are tough little buggars. The dogs got to the trap first and were rolling it around the yard trying to get at the squirrel all while barking their heads off. Needless to say, the squirrel was a mite *ahem* perturbed. Were it not for the lack of water, he probably thought he was going over Niagara Falls in a barrel. I’m surprised he didn’t have a heart attack.

    I got the cage up and away from the dogs and put it in the back of the pickup truck. It has a covered bed, so it was dark and quiet in there. No luggage, but ready for bon voyage!

    We went for a nice Sunday drive in the country about 3 miles away from my house. I let him out in a wooded area of the Army Corps land that surrounds the reservoir next door to our neighborhood.

    When I opened the trap he made a beeline for the woods and seemed little the worse for wear. I didn’t charge him a relocation fee, but the little ingrate didn’t bother to acknowledge that. He probably lost his wallet during the wild ride back at house, so I doubt he could pay up anyhow.

    Goodbye and good luck!

  165. Another Ian says:

    FWIW

    “This is quite the thread. It may be pulled straight from the ass unmitigated BS, but — it’s still quite the thread. ”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/05/17/dear-judge-sullivan/#comments

  166. ossqss says:

    Heads up HR. I found that Squirrel and you were right. :-)

    https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/618gs4VqImL._AC_SL1000_.jpg.

  167. H.R. says:

    @Ossqss – Yeah, that last squirrel will be a tough little buggar to catch. The dogs better keep an eye out on that one.

  168. ossqss says:

    So, we can blame a 14 year old for the lockdown?

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/2006-origins-lockdown-idea

  169. YMMV says:

    Low zinc levels, Covid, and HCQ.
    https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/05/dr_fauci_and_the_tuskegee_syphilis_study_victims.html

    COVID-19 patients are largely drawn from groups that are known to have zinc deficiencies (i.e., the elderly, black Americans, diabetics, those with cancer, and those with low hemoglobin levels). When Fauci tests HCQ on them without giving them zinc at the same time, many will die. In the 1930s and 1940s, the NIH deprived black Americans of life-saving penicillin in the infamous Tuskegee Syphilis Study. Now, under the leadership of Antony Fauci, the NIH is about to begin a study that will deprive them of life-saving zinc.

  170. Gary P. Smith says:

    Gab.com appears to be under DDOS attack. It is seriously time to take some people to the woodshed.

  171. ossqss says:

    Does anyone remember when Obama gave up control of the internet? Just sayin…..

  172. ossqss says:

    Yep, healthcare, class warfare, and all kinds of other not good for the country stuff, then the internet? Think Occupy movement.

    Just a reminder from Forbes. Say what ya want about 5G now. 》

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jodywestby/2016/09/24/7-days-before-obama-gives-away-internet-national-security/#11f91f8e30d4

  173. E.M.Smith says:

    @Ossqss:

    Yes, it was stupid, but no, it isn’t the end of the ability to communicate.

    The whole DNS structure is destributed and depends on cooperation. NOTHING prevents any person, group, nation or confederation from just ignoring the Root Srrvers and setting up their own network (s).

    In fact, that is a basic part of the structure. I have my own private DNS Server that knows about the machines in my house. Nobody else knows about them. I run on the “non-routing” blocks; where that really only means backbone ISP types don’t route them. I route them inside my home. I could, easily, form a VPN tunnel to another home (company, building, nation) and route my numbers over if to them, sharing our hidden DNS services. And I have done just that professionally for decades. It is a normal part of business operations.

    Inversely, I could choose to use a routed Public IP Number block internally. I’d need to make sure it did not get to my ISP (as they will believe it is someone else). I would not be able to talk to the owner (assigned user) of that block since my boundary router would not send packets to them, since it knows to keep those packets on my network. In fact, I did this professionally too. A Story:

    Back in the early ’80s I worked at Apple. Someone had decided to just use any old numbers internally since they were not connected to the internet. I set up their first internet connection. But rather than renumber the whole company then, we just used a NAT Network Address Translation gateway. Internally stayed 17.x.x.x/8 for several years after that. The only real consequence was that we could not directly route to (IIRC) HP and Bank of America who were proper occupants of that number block (and maybe some others nobody ran into). Many years later we did the renumber to non-routing.

    But wait, there’s more:

    The entire .onion domain and the Dark Web functions via a bypass of the internet DNS. There are several variations on this, too (including one that goes so far as to fiddle the length of bit fields in the IP numbers to prevent “others” even reading the packets without a special ethernet driver…)

    So basically everything needed to just say “screw you, I’m doing it my way” exists and is in use. Would it be a bother to do that? Yes. But not too much bother. So how well would the rump internet get along if the USA just left? That’s a big hammer…

  174. beththeserf says:

    Scott Adams sends up the anti Hxq/zinc medja campaign.

  175. YMMV says:

    What I am dying to know is why nobody cares about how dangerous HCQ is for lupus and arthritis sufferers and for those taking it for malaria? (or how dangerous VA hospitals are, or for that matter how dangerous hospitals are, or how dangerous it is to go to the beach, or to cross the street).

    Biden has A-fib, so he should keep hiding in his basement.

    BTW, Apple Watch has an A-fib detector feature.
    https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT208955

    This feature is useful to find events that a doctor’s tests miss (because those are for a limited time period). There are some limitations as to what it can do.

  176. ossqss says:

    YMMV, I hear ya. Perspective helps sometimes.

  177. Another Ian says:

    “Good article outlining how to operate as a dissident right-winger inside our progressive culture.
    http://thezman.com/wordpress/?p=20541

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/05/20/may-20-2020-reader-tips/#comment-1318877

  178. A C Osborn says:

    YMMV says: 18 May 2020 at 5:34 pm

    Yes there are many so called Clinical Studies that are being designed to fail where the cheap drugs are concerned.
    They will get plastered over the whole of the MSM, when dodgy studies of new anti-virals will get glowing reviews.

    We know how big pharma works.

  179. Phil Jourdan says:

    @EM – Re: Using a public block internally. I do not recall which company we used for the initial training, but they had a story. They use to use their Public IPs in their training as lessons. Problem was, many students went back to their companies and duplicated the range! So they stopped using their Public IPs in training and just went to all the RFC1918 ones.

    Still gives me a chuckle when I think of it.

  180. Another Ian says:

    “The price of ignorance”

    “The History of Economic Thought is far and away the most interesting part of economics. Unlike the history of other disciplines, the history of chemistry for example, it can only be studied by someone with an economics background, but is also a very good medium through which to learn economics itself. And with modern economics courses drenched in junk science, HET is perhaps the only way to learn about how an economy works. A couple of days ago, the moderator at the Societies for the History of Economics online discussion forum (the SHOE list) put up a brief note:”

    More at

    http://catallaxyfiles.com/2020/05/23/the-price-of-ignorance/

  181. Another Ian says:
  182. Another Ian says:

    ““The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency” ”

    http://catallaxyfiles.com/2020/05/24/the-best-way-to-destroy-the-capitalist-system-is-to-debauch-the-currency/

  183. Another Ian says:

    “Peer review: a flawed process at the heart of science and journals”

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1420798/

    Via a comment at Jo Nova

  184. Another Ian says:

    For something different

    Oz musicians in action – if you can find a video of “Stay the f*** at home”

    [contains F-bombs galore. “https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLbz5Aaw92s” -EMS ]

  185. Another Ian says:

    Re lockdowns and recoveries

    “Reaping the whirlwind”

    http://catallaxyfiles.com/2020/05/24/reaping-the-whirlwind/

  186. Another Ian says:

    E.M. There is a link to some Oz corona virus advice set to music whose title looks like it has got it to hit the bin

  187. E.M.Smith says:

    Styxhexehammer666 has a good one today.

    Seems Faceplant has banned brighteon.com indicating it is a good place to explore. Then he used a wonderful pronunciation: Zuckerborg….

    Hey! Zuckerborg! Streisand much?

    Seems Brighteon was being pressured by Faceplant et. al. to remove the Plandemic video, and refused. So got banned itself. Seems that The Left simply can not abide the notion of freedom of speech. By anyone or any platform.

    So the activity du jour for me will now be “Brighteon Familiarizing” here:
    https://www.brighteon.com

    The Silly Con Valley Cabal are sure promoting leaving their platforms…

    Styx also mentioned archive.today as a paywall bypass, but my attempt to reach it gave me a Cloudflare dns 403 error. We saw that before in a load failure case. But who knows what this one is.

    ATM attempting to run the Brighteon respose video or the Plandemic video 2nd below are giving me spinning wait symbols… I wonder if it a new hoard of freedom supporting customers, or a DDS? Well, I’ll try again later. Their top web page loaded fine so something in the video provisioning.

    https://www.brighteon.com/4610c67d-0457-4363-94db-4bc26165d205

    https://www.brighteon.com/edddd3ce-a71a-4f46-ab27-96bca82350e5

  188. E.M.Smith says:

    Ah, must be a load issue as they are working now. The Brighteon CEO pod cast said they are spending a fortune on bandwidth for the Plandemic video… the Portuguese languge version alone with over a million views… ;-)

  189. Another Ian says:

    More “choice reading ” here

    CONCLUSION (2/6)

    Clinesmith appears to have conspired to lie to the FISA court, and destroyed/concealed a federal document under color of authority with an FBI badge, and he hasn’t been charged with anything

    — Undercover Huber (@JohnWHuber) May 24, 2020 ”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/05/24/when-the-fbi-does-it-that-means-that-its-not-illegal-157/

  190. ossqss says:

    Okay, here’s a tidbit. Since entering the pandemic, I have been unable to get new contacts that were probably needed last year. However, I have explored the 30-day and throw away contact viability extension path. So I just entered month for with a pair I’ve had and used since January ish. I simply take them out after 7 days or so, put them in an all-in-one solution that includes a sterilizing agent oh, and put them back in for another week. In my younger days we used to boil/steam them in the evenings in a case with something that smelled like eggs :-). Those lasted over a year themselves.

    Accuview Oasis ( for presbyopia) are the ones I use. BTW, they certainly don’t recommend doing this type of extended use thing out of concern of infection, and lost profits! Doh!

  191. ossqss says:

    Here is another entertainment tid bit, that many may have forgotten. ;-)

  192. Power Grab says:

    @ EM re:
    “Ah, must be a load issue as they are working now. The Brighteon CEO pod cast said they are spending a fortune on bandwidth for the Plandemic video… the Portuguese languge version alone with over a million views… ;-)”

    Brazilians doing research?

  193. Power Grab says:

    A friend who works at Walmart was telling me today that they are being given the “bonus”, but the cut in their hours wipes it out. :-/

  194. jim2 says:

    The Dimowits went to great lengths to put the Russia Hoax Investigation on a larger-than-life pedestal, illuminated by blazing search lights, and blasted out to the public night and day by their media lap dogs. I found it galling, infuriating, beyond hypocritical, and frustrating.

    However, it may be a blessing in disguise. Now that the criminal behavior of the Obama government perpetrators is coming to light, the public will remember the accusations put forth by the Dimowits against innocent people, including President Trump. They won’t be able to deny it. They will be shown to be the hypocritical liars they are. Subhuman ass hats. Traitors.

  195. H.R. says:

    This is Peking Pox stuff (love it!) but doesn’t fit on any of the current threads.

    1. Has anyone noticed a bicycle shortage at their local Walmart? The racks that hold the pre-assembled bikes at my local Walmart only have a half-dozen bikes in them, if that. Normally they’d hold about 80-ish bikes.

    2. Went to check out the reservoir levels. The water is up in the parking lots and it’s been too high to fish from the banks.

    Ground report from the marina – absolutely jammed with boaters and all the picnic areas had nice-sized gatherings. Nary a mask in sight and the only social distancing was people sticking with their group, i.e., normal crowded picnic area behavior. Lots of sunshine and temps in the low 80s(F) so there really wasn’t any need of masks.

  196. Another Ian says:

    “Scientists understand cattle not climate villains, but media still missing message”

    https://www.beefcentral.com/production/scientists-understand-cattle-are-not-climate-villains-media-still-missing-the-message/

  197. Power Grab says:

    @ HR re bicycles at Walmart:

    I noticed there was only one.

  198. Another Ian says:

    For the “gearhears” here

    “Here’s a fascinating series of videos by an Australian guy reproducing the Antikythera Mechanism using the same tools, materials and techniques that the Ancient Greeks had.

    https://youtu.be/ML4tw_UzqZE

    http://joannenova.com.au/2020/05/tuesday-open-thread-14/#comment-2333100

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