Spain Wuhan Virus IFR 1.16%

In Spain, testing 70,000 people for antibodies, actual Infection Fatality Rate is 1.16%

For the USA, if everyone gets exposed to reach herd immunity at 70%, we would expect about:

340 Million x .7 x 0.0116 = 2.76 Million deaths. IF, somehow, we can cut that in half or to 1/3 with better medical care, we still end up at 1.4 Million to 900,000 deaths.

One complexity in that: IF a lot of folks, like children, toss off the disease without antibody formation (say, by innate immunity, which IMHO is probable) those numbers could end up much lower.

Subscribe to feed

About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in Covid. Bookmark the permalink.

96 Responses to Spain Wuhan Virus IFR 1.16%

  1. cdquarles says:

    Oh, said study indicates possible antigens to target for decent vaccines (not necessarily what BG wants).

  2. Scissor says:

    The good news is that apparently herd immunity can be achieved with a much lower infection rate.
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/05/11/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought/

  3. E.M.Smith says:

    @CDQuarles:

    Interesting cross reactive antibodies. So some part of the population might have some immunity from exposure to other viruses.

    Couple that with the lower herd immunity threshold if the population is not homogeneous from what Scissor posted and it could explain curves falling a lot faster than expected in many countries.

    I wonder if the HIT has been calculated figuring kids tossing it off relatively easily…

  4. rhoda klapp says:

    I’m not part of anybody’s herd, I’d like another term to use.

    But, we have a different infection scenario here. It looks like up to 80% of people can shrug off this virus at low viral loads. That affects all the calculations. Also the R0 term is not really available except in retrospect. It is subject to so many influences while the epidemic is going on that one can only look at what it was, which is no indication of what it will be elsewhere with a different population, population density, mobility and so on. It may be useful for comparing models, but not for prediction. Like that climate sensitivity thing (which is completely invalid IMHO).

  5. cdquarles says:

    About the true community immunity threshold calculation, I don’t know if they have done a proper SEIR study using subgroup susceptibility. I doubt it, though. You’re much more likely to get a less scary headline that way.

  6. H.R. says:

    @cd re subgroups – That’s what I’m not seeing much of anywhere, although I suppose it can be dug up somewhere.

    I’m not going to scroll up, but one of our usual suspects posted the list on deaths by ethnicity from the UK, IIRC. That’s the first one I recall seeing, though I’ve no doubt missed the few other compilations that looked at subgroups.

    Anyhow, there’s no scare factor when 99.something percent of the population will experience no or mild symptoms and some will just have a nasty flu, but won’t go to the doctor let alone the hospital.

    Skin color does seem to matter.

    Age matters mostly because the immune system gets old and tired, too and key body parts are starting to wear out.

    We’ve touched on it, but no one seems to have a handle on genetics that come into play. Homogeneous populations may be hit hard or hardly hit depending, but not a lot seems to be known about that this early in the game.

    Women vs men has mixed reports so something else is going on there, probably related to a mix of factors such as those above with women less likely to have the right negative mix for a poor outcome.

    I would hate to be 70, black, diabetic, smoker, and obese with a bum ticker and liver problems. That’s a death sentence right there and the only way to beat that rap is to find a clean room somewhere in Arizona and move in, meals UVd before being pushed through a double air lock.
    .
    .
    .
    My son and his boss went to Vancouver BC on a business trip in January of this year. Upon return, his boss was laid out for about two weeks with a bad flu and not quite up to snuff for a week or so afterwards.

    The boss was tested last week and it came back positive for Wuhan Flu, though it’s hard to say what test he got and how good the test was. But he was sick enough for a strong positive to be an expected result.

    My son had the same exposures to the Kung Flu. He has not been tested yet, but I think he will ask for a test at some point. It wouldn’t surprise me to find he is positive, but had no noticeable symptoms. He’s a bit snuffly-sniffly due to lifelong easily irritated sinuses, so he might have just been a little drippier than usual, it being Winter, and thought nothing of it.

    It will be interesting to find out.

  7. Ossqss says:

    My first question would be where these 70k tested people reside? Did they test all the nursing homes residents and workers in high density/risk urban areas or a completely random sampling?

  8. E.M.Smith says:

    @Ossqss:

    The study took samples from all over Spain. Here’s the article referenced in the video:
    https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-05-14/antibody-study-shows-just-5-of-spaniards-have-contracted-the-coronavirus.html

    The figures in the Spanish study show significant geographical differences: in some provinces, the prevalence of the virus is seven times higher than in others. In Soria province, 14.2% of the population has developed antibodies after being exposed to SARS-CoV-2. In the Madrid region, considered the epicenter of the pandemic, the prevalence is 11.3%.

    At the other end of the spectrum, Murcia, Asturias, the Canary Islands, and the exclave cities of Ceuta and Melilla in North Africa showed a prevalence of under 2%. A map shows that provinces located near Madrid have similar figures: 12.6% in Segovia, 10.9% in Guadalajara and 13.5% in Cuenca.

    The article has a map of all Spain with percentages by provence.

  9. YMMV says:

    @ossqss: virus-researchers-uncover-evidence-implying-covid-19-was-created-in-a-lab

    The detailed details on this.
    https://gnews.org/192144/
    “RaTG13 – the Undeniable Evidence That the Wuhan Coronavirus Is Man-Made”

    The ratio of synonymous and non-synonymous mutations over the timeline is suspicious.

    keyword for future searches: RaTG13

  10. Foyle says:

    IFR from best of west performers that are likely to have identified most cases and have best treatment protocols: Singapore 0.08%!!! Iceland 0.56%, Hong Kong 0.4%
    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

  11. E.M.Smith says:

    MedCram, by Medical Doctors FOR Medical Doctors, citing published medical literature, has had YOUTUBE CENSORSHIP take down some of their videos. Numbers 10, 43, 57, 60 & 71 have been taken down. This is incredibly stupid and shows why censorship is always a very bad idea.

    To see this politically incorrect VALID MEDICAL INFORMATION FROM DOCTORS, see their web site directly:
    https://www.medcram.com
    And tell all your friends…make Streisand sing like never before ;-)

  12. ossqss says:

    Heads are exploding now that Trump has announced he has been taking hydroxychloroquine and zinc, LOL

  13. E.M.Smith says:

    Looks like one of them may be mirrored on BitChute. Perhaps they eill mirror some more:
    https://www.bitchute.com/video/sjeQSgheKv2v/

  14. E.M.Smith says:

    @Ossqss:

    OMG, I’ve got to find where he said that…. ‘Splody PC Heads are a beautiful thing ;-)

  15. Another Ian says:

    Re “ossqss says:
    18 May 2020 at 9:09 pm

    Heads are exploding now that Trump has announced he has been taking hydroxychloroquine and zinc, LOL”

    CNN headline coming up

    “Trump prevents never-trumpers taking HCQ and zinc”

  16. E.M.Smith says:

    @P.G.:

    Thanks!

    Looks like toward the end of the White House news conference of 5/18/20.

    Got to hand it to Trump, he sure knows how to bitch slap media functionaries and make their heads spin. A Duckduckgo search on it had print articles up all over the place already.

    It will be 4-walled to the world that HCQ is in use by POTUS as prophylactic. Couple that with a couple of weeks of video of him without a mask being badgered by media loons doing concern trolling about his risk of catching it… and now we know… Existence Proof: it’s a beautiful thing ;-)

    The icing on the cake? Folks who believe the YSM /MSM will be avoiding it while the Trump Train is all for it. Think about the potential impact on voter rolls… Talk about “losing audience share”… in a very permanent way…

    So “folks like me” knowing what works and taking zinc +Vitamins already will survive better while left wingnuts are told not to take vit-D or C and zinc AND not take HCQ if they get sick, so will have worse odds. Karma is a Bitch sometimes :-)

  17. YMMV says:

    The MSM keep bringing up the VA study. It must be the only one they’ve got. The media doesn’t get out much or they would have heard just how bad it is. From real scientists. It’s such an easy target.
    https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-stephen-smith-study-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-treatment
    “It’s a sham”

  18. E.M.Smith says:

    What the YSM / MSM have completely missed is that for much of the public they are seen either as horrible liars (Russiagate) or flat out negative indicators.

    I’m to the poibt where a “news” report of hot sunny weather has me grabbing a coat…. and stories about food supply being “plentiful” means I’d better stock up.

  19. p.g.sharrow says:

    I have never seen such an effort to feed the public BAD information. This level of lies can not be due to ignorance, this is deliberate misdirection from the top “Experts” and opinion makers working in concert with certain world leaders to frame their argument. Their story flies in the face of facts that tell a story different then their own. Treacherous, Crimes against Humanity comes to mind.

  20. jim2 says:

    Even on Breitbart there is suppression of positive information about hydroxychloroquine.

    Favorable mention:
    Dr. Nesheiwat: Neil, being a doctor on the front lines of this pandemic here in New York City, I have prescribed hydroxychloroquine to some of my patients. And for some of them, they said it helped tremendously. Some of them, it didn’t make much of a change. But each person needs to be looked at individually —

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/05/18/trump-slams-fox-news-hydroxychloroquine-coverage-looking-for-a-new-outlet/

    Hostile mention:
    Studies to date have indicated that the combination offers limited benefits at best, with potentially dangerous side effects.

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/05/18/trump-slams-fox-news-hydroxychloroquine-coverage-looking-for-a-new-outlet/

    Hostile mention:
    DR. MANNY ALVAREZ: I don’t know, your guess is as good as mine. I found it to be highly irresponsible for the president to have come out and made that statement …
    https://www.breitbart.com/the-media/2020/05/18/fox-news-medical-contributor-trumps-hydroxychloroquine-announcement-highly-irresponsible/

    Looks like Fox needs to dump Dr. Alvarez.

  21. p.g.sharrow says:

    Donald Trump has every right to select his own treatment and the responsibility to set an example of his faith in his judgment on what will be in his best interest. A Leader !
    Not the Follower of government “Experts” that seem to have their own agenda.

  22. E.M.Smith says:

    The only bit I can’t sort:

    Is this just from the money to be made off Giliad drugs and vaxination money?
    Or
    Is this a nefarious move by Globalist / Deep State actors for deeper darker motives?

    It clearly is not about public health, truth, or understanding. It is about hidden evil goals.

  23. YMMV says:

    Selective memory, selective facts, welcome to Brave New World. Even Musk is starting to talk about Red Pills. Echos of the Spanish Inquisition, Index Librorum Prohibitorum, Nazi book burning. Arkanacide. Time to check to see if we have that tattoo or the brand or the ear tag.

    “devastating 2-page critique of the Magagnoli VA study by the renowned French infectious disease expert Didier Raoult et al.”
    “https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Response-to-Magagnoli.pdf”

    “In the current period, it seems that passion dominates rigorous and balanced scientific analysis and may lead to scientific misconduct. The article by Magagnoli et al. (Magagnoli, 2020) is an absolutely spectacular example of this.”

  24. A C Osborn says:

    E.M.Smith says: 19 May 2020 at 4:11 pm

    Personally I think they go hand in hand.

  25. YMMV says:

    T-shirt idea. “If you live in the swamp you should take malaria drugs”
    With a red hat which says DC – HCQ.

  26. H.R. says:

    In my readings, not only is Gates interested in the billions to be made off of a vaccine, but he is pushing for everyone to be microchipped.

    I believe this has already been brought up here. We haven’t discussed it much if it did come up.

    There’s no “Mark of the Beast” (cannot buy or sell without the mark) talk here, but that is what microchips would do. Those who aren’t self-sustaining or networked with other off-grid, under the radar types will have to do as they are told or else no cookies for them, as well as no medical treatment, no housing, no travel, no nothing and they can look forward to involuntary participation in medical experiments. Who knows? The elite may hunt them for sport.

  27. cdquarles says:

    Yeah, the microchipped part is my issue. Vaccines, as such, are not a biggie with me.

  28. Power Grab says:

    Re the plan for the BG vaccine…some of the talk on Twitter is that it will use mRNA to change one’s DNA and make them non-human. I can’t quite wrap my head around that one.

    There are all kinds of directions I could take that. Take autism, for example. I remember first reading about it in one of my dad’s magazines (Popular Mechanics, Popular Science, etc.) in the 1960s. It was apparently quite an oddity at that time. It was rare and found mostly in California, especially the Silicon Valley. Now it’s so common that Special Olympics is a big thing, with statewide participation numbering in the thousands.

    And right before I came here, I read an article on the CNET site about how companies are seeking to hire people on the autism spectrum for detail-oriented, repetitive tasks.

    So, are you less-than-human if you’re on the spectrum? And is that why they won’t stop using our babies as a dumping ground for aluminum and mercury, etc.? Autism isn’t a bug, for some it’s a feature?

    Or how about our microbiome? If you can permanently cripple it so that we function like ants that have been taken over by nematodes to do their bidding, even though it’s self-destructive to us? Or toxoplasma taking over mice to guide them into being eaten by cats? Or …

    “Spinochordodes tellinii is a nematomorph hairworm that infects grasshoppers and crickets. As adults, the parasitic worms live in water and form writhing masses to breed. Grasshoppers and crickets ingest the worms’ microscopic larvae when they drink the infested water.

    “The hairworm larvae then develop inside of the insect host. Once grown, they release powerful mind-controlling chemicals that sabotage the insect’s central nervous system. The evil hairworms force the insect to jump into the nearest body of water, where it subsequently drown. Yes, the hairworms actually cause their hosts to commit suicide. The parasites then escape their deceased host and the cycle begin anew.” (From https://io9.gizmodo.com/12-real-parasites-that-control-the-lives-of-their-hosts-461313366 )

    Does BG plan to turn mankind into living droids?

  29. Power Grab says:

    I forgot this part:

    “…living droids?”

    That would lead to scenes like this:

    “Norman, coordinate. Norman, coordinate.”

    Remember that, my fellow Trekkies?

    When I was looking into Common Core math, it made me think of that scene.

  30. E.M.Smith says:

    Per microchips:

    Were that ever to happen, just think of the potential for mayhem by hacking, programming and even just microwave PHUNT! Or my personal favorite: cloning the chip of rich folks…

    Not that I’ve thought sbout it…..

    Much…

    The more complicated the system, the easier it is to gum up the works.

    Personally, I’ll be moving to a heavily Baptist / Fundamentalist area. They will be last to submit and the BBQ is better anyway ;’)

    FWIW, the spouse can not tolerate stainless steel long term, only titanium. I react to all sorts of stuff, even a glass bit in a wound decades back. Good luck finding materials that neither of us react to. I now see that as a feature…

    Per mRNA:

    That is just Messenger RNA. You use it to carry directions on what proteins to make. Your DNA gets copied to mRNA that then is the template for protein synthesis. RNA Viruses just go straight to the mRNA strand step.

    To say the vaccine is an mRNA vaccine just says that instead of injecting you with virus protein fragments, they will inject virus RNA fragments that only make some of the virus proteins, not the whole virus. You don’t get sick, but do make antibodies to those proteins.

    Oh, and you stay human the whole time… assuming you started out human…

    While there are some viruses that insert a DNA copy of themselves into your cell’s nucleus (chickenpox that is called shingles on a later outbreak) your body usually silences them via methylation. Though herpes of various sorts sometimes gets past that. But even then you stay human and the virus stays a virus.

  31. Power Grab says:

    @ EM re staying human:

    My allergy to fearmongering keeps getting triggered.

    That’s one reason I keep tossing out those ideas here, for additional perspective. Thanks for the reply.

  32. A C Osborn says:

    E M , another possible treatment for Ventilated Patients, Nitric Oxide.
    https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200409/nitric-oxide-investigated-as-covid19-treatment

  33. A C Osborn says:

    E M yet another Article knocking HCQ using a study which when you read the details they show that they only used HCQ or HCQ + Azithromycin or Azithromycin on it’s own on the very ill patients with underlying comorbities like heart or lung trouble, were obese and had diabetes.
    The fact the overall results for the drugs were no worse than without them on much healthier patients says a lot for the drugs.
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2766117

    No doubt about it, TDS and anti HCQ in evidence again.

  34. A C Osborn says:

    I have found a Treatment and Vaccine tracker that may prove useful.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16DbPhF9OD0MHHtCR12of6yUcfiRzP_-XGkynEbnipds/edit#gid=2075421071

  35. A C Osborn says:

    ps, it literally has hundreds of drugs, probably too many to add to my database manually.

  36. A C Osborn says:

    pps, it is downloadable as an Excel file, so I should be able to import the data in to my database.

  37. cdquarles says:

    https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa161/5815743, to add to our idea of seasonality.

    To minimize category errors, remember for colds, the virus is a rhinovirus. Other viruses may cause cold-like illnesses. For influenza, the virus is an influenza virus. Other viruses may cause influenza-like illnesses.

    Some clues about how coronaviruses infect cells may be gleaned from the initial isolation methods done decades ago (organ cultures).

    Also note that not all infections get a full blood borne viremia; so sequelae vary.

  38. cdquarles says:

    About nitric oxide, remember our bodies make it as a more localized hormone/chemical cell-to-cell signaling mechanism. One of its actions is that it is a smooth muscle relaxation trigger.

  39. YMMV says:

    Power Grab: “function like ants that have been taken over by nematodes to do their bidding”

    There are many things like this in nature. Totally amazing … and scary.
    I’m surprised they are not more well known.

    Nature is not simple. Humans project their simple ideas (and models) onto it. Hubris.
    Nature is messy. Including human health. It’s complicated.

    Therefore, any study, every study, should be taken with a grain of salt.
    Nothing the FDA or WHO can say changes this one way or the other. There is no certainty.
    Consensus is not a substitute for certainty. It all comes down to who are you going to believe?
    Especially when you are not one of the experts.

    Submitted for your …
    https://www.healthing.ca/diseases-and-conditions/obesity/coffee-linked-to-bone-disease-obesity-study

  40. cdquarles says:

    Here is another small numbers study showing HCQ + antibiotics, in certain circumstances does okay without zinc: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20094193v1.full.pdf. Issues: small numbers and uses p-values. So, there is evidence that vitamin C, D, K2 + zinc work. There is evidence that zinc alone works & so forth. Good news: there are choices that work for some, so folk are able to see and find out what works for them and no top-down mandates seem necessary.

  41. A C Osborn says:

    ossqss says: 20 May 2020 at 7:02 pm
    So how does it spread, in droplets?
    So it should have been Face masks and glasses and or Visor and not hand washing then.

  42. E.M.Smith says:

    Oh too funny. Chris Cuomo took quinine for his Wuhan Covid!
    https://www.infowars.com/cnns-cuomo-took-less-safe-version-of-hydroxychloroquine-to-treat-coronavirus/

    As Cuomo joined his fellow mainstream media talking heads in attacking hydroxychloroquine, Cuomo’s own wife accidentally threw him under the bus by revealing he was on a regimen of quinine throughout his time battling COVID-19.

    In her blog “The Purist,” Cuomo’s wife Cristina detailed the treatments Chris took while “in quarantine” in his basement.

    Somebody needs to tell him hydroxychloroquine was created as a modified quinine with fewer side effects…

  43. H.R. says:

    @E.M. – Willis E. had an essay on WUWT about hydroxychloroquine. As I understood it from his post, some (all?) strains of malaria became resistant to quinine, so chloroquine was developed. Then malaria became resistant to chloroquine so hydroxychloroquine was developed.

    That doesn’t negate the point that hydroxychloroquine is more benign to the user. I think he mentioned that he had to take quinine late after developing malaria and it was nasty.

    Those aren’t mutually exclusive points. Something developed to get around a bug’s resistance can also be made more user friendly while they are at it.

  44. E.M.Smith says:

    Not all malaria types in all regions have resistance to particular drugs. (There are a couple of malaria species). So you are suppised to find out what drug is advised for any given area. HCQ has a few areas with resistant types. Drugs used longer have more.

  45. YMMV says:

    Too funny. In the comments Cuomo’s wife made, she said Plaquinol is used against Lyme disease.
    Plaquinol is HCQ. Some users say it works, some studies say it doesn’t.

    https://www.aocd.org/page/Hydroxychloroquine
    (American Osteopathic College of Dermatology)
    Botox users take note, it has reduced efficacy if taken with HCQ!

    And for those who want reasons not to take HCQ, an even longer list of side effects:
    https://www.drugs.com/sfx/hydroxychloroquine-side-effects.html
    (mostly uncommon or incidence unknown)

  46. Simon Derricutt says:

    A bit OT, but news that HCQ is undergoing a double-blind trial in various countries and coordinated in Oxford. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52737169 . Of course there are a lot of unofficial tests as well, with the Cuomo one above being pretty amusing. HCQ has been around for long enough that the side-effects and contra-indications are well-known. For the majority, no problems, since otherwise it wouldn’t be prescribed as standard if you need to travel to those places where Malaria is both endemic and where HCQ still works.

    The good thing about this study is that the subjects will be health-care workers who are definitely exposed to the disease. Hopefully it will save some of their lives, too, though maybe the placebo group will be less lucky. The placebo used will need to be published, so it can be certain that it actually has no medical effect.

    If as expected the HCQ works as a prophylactic, it’s probably going to show up before the 3-month limit. May give an ethical dilemma….

  47. A C Osborn says:

    Simon Derricutt says: 21 May 2020 at 10:06 am

    Unfortunately no mention of Zinc in these trials which is the real virus stopper.
    My concern as stated before is they are setting up less than optimal studies so that they fail.
    Like the Brazilian Chloroquine study where they gave doubel the decalred safe dose and when the patients developed problems they declared the drug unsafe.

  48. Simon Derricutt says:

    ACO – if HCQ is given as a prophylactic, then I’d expect the Zinc levels to not be too low (the person isn’t ill yet) and there’s in any case some time available to replenish them, so in this case maybe not giving the Zinc at the same time may not be a major problem. I’d agree it would be better to give extra Zinc with the HCQ, but it may be *good enough* to give useful data.

    Looking at the Brazil figures, looks like we’ll initially be seeing what would have happened elsewhere without a lockdown. However, it also seems that Bolsonaro has forced through the ability to use Chloroquine when symptoms are seen (rather than waiting until the cytokine storm has caused other damage), and though this again doesn’t mention Zinc it is likely to give some information as to whether the medication does the expected job. It annoys me somewhat that the main information will come out as death statistics, when it seems to me a lot of those deaths didn’t need to happen, but I suppose that’s the way it goes.

    Looking at the overall excess deaths in the UK, I suspect that more died because of Covid-19 than the official figures say, because a lot of the strokes, heart attacks, and kidney failures may be a result of the virus but not currently recognised as such. The symptoms may well be different in different people, depending on their own weak point.

  49. Power Grab says:

    I have a friend in Brazil. Some of their friends (a family) have been dealing with Covid. The mom was diagnosed with it earlier this week and put in the hospital. The next day, she was released. Then a day or so later, their older offspring was put in hospital, then sent home, then sent back to hospital (possibly with meningitis). Then their younger offspring was put in hospital. Mom hasn’t been sent back to hospital, but is having digestive issues from the meds they put her on. There hasn’t been any report of the dad’s having taken ill.

    It kind of reminds me of the recent report from NY that 50% or 60% of their recently-reported new cases were people who had been sheltering at home, and not getting out at all.

    THAT reminds me of the video of the 2 doctors in California (which is probably hard to find now since it doesn’t fit in with the official narrative). The main takeaway from that video for me was that it doesn’t help your immune system stay healthy if you sequester yourself from ALL exposure to the outside world.

    Speaking of that, I’m actually seeing commercials on TV that encourage the viewer to get outside and spend time in the sun. Heh-heh. In my sixth decade,and I don’t remember ever seeing commercials about that before! When I was young, moms were always urging their kids to “go outside and play”!

    Oh, and yesterday one TV station had a feature about a 5 year old boy and his mom who had committed to spend 1000 hours outdoors. They’re up to 900-something hours so far. And that story wasn’t even a commercial to sell merchandise (e.g., gardening supplies, etc.)

    Is this a “plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose” moment?

  50. A C Osborn says:

    Power Grab says: 22 May 2020 at 2:36 pm
    “It kind of reminds me of the recent report from NY that 50% or 60% of their recently-reported new cases were people who had been sheltering at home, and not getting out at all. ”

    How is that even possible, if they have no contact with the outside world how did they all get the Virus?
    Viruses do not have wings, they do not have feet & legs, they do not crawl and they can’t swim.
    Being locked in is not good and in most cases not necessary if proper precautions are taken.

  51. Simon Derricutt says:

    ACO – could be that those “locked in” people got aerosolised virus through the air conditioning in the building. A while back EM noted that in a hotel bathroom he could smell smoke from someone else, and so reasonable to expect other stuff in the air too. It is very hard to avoid some virus in the air unless you use UV, O3, or something similar. Someone sheltering will likely have a poor immune system after a while, too.

  52. p.g.sharrow says:

    “Shelter at home” is a pretty leaky sieve and if a infected person is introduced into that environment everyone there gets introduced to a massive dose infection. Someone that is lightly infected, “asymptomatic” can give others a killer dose because of continuous dosing before the other’s bodys can build immunity. Weaken immunity from lack of challenge is also a big factor.
    As we have speculated here, Staying healthy is your best defense to survive this virus, Avoiding it altogether is not likely…pg .

  53. p.g.sharrow says:

    I’m also beginning to think that there are many varieties of this virus, some more damaging then others. For most of us we got exposed to one of the lessor strains, while Italy and New York got hit by a particularly bad strain. Infection from any strain will confer immunity against all of them. Much like the case with “Pox” viral infections. The Chinese were trying to create a “Corona” virus vaccine when this thing got lose…pg.

  54. A C Osborn says:

    EM another major Hit Job study on HCQ and Q, this time in the Lancet.
    I hadn’t realised that so many had been treated with it
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8348151/Hydroxychloroquine-raises-risk-death-coronavirus-patients.html

    It is appearing allover the MSM.
    Lot’s of “estimating” apparently, but I can’t find the actual study.

  55. A C Osborn says:

    THis is an extract from the hit piece in the Daily Mail.

    “Scientists in the US and France last month found 90 per cent of critically-ill COVID-19 patients given hydroxychloroquine developed heart arrhythmias.”

    Now that is a new one for me anyone know ehere that came from?

  56. ossqss says:

    AC, I would suspect those ill folks probably had associated comorbidities. Did they discuss that in the article?

  57. Power Grab says:

    @ ACO re:
    “THis is an extract from the hit piece in the Daily Mail.

    “Scientists in the US and France last month found 90 per cent of critically-ill COVID-19 patients given hydroxychloroquine developed heart arrhythmias.”

    Now that is a new one for me anyone know where that came from?”

    I wonder if those are the situations where they only gave them HCQ, without zinc or a Z-pack…or tetracycline…or vitamins D and/or C…or copper…? There are lots of treatment protocols that don’t have to kill the patient.

    I have read more than once that if they wait until the patients are really bad off, then only give them HCQ (or give them excessive doses of HCQ), then it doesn’t help them at all.

    I’ve read that it’s the zinc that does the trick, and the HCQ helps get the zinc into the cells so it can work its magic.

    IMHO, you’d have to be pretty heartless and/or clueless if you would keep treating the desperately ill patients the wrong way and killing them off. It’s inhumane!

    But then, I come from (1) a country doctor who treated more than 70 patients during the Spanish Flu epidemic and lost none of them, and (2) a physical therapist who went beyond his formal training and taught himself to use the acupuncture trigger points with different modalities to control pain and became a pain-control specialist. But you’d have to have some good observation chops and armor-clad morals to come up with things that work, even in the face of opposition from the powers that be.

  58. A C Osborn says:

    Here is the study, I am going to read it.
    They did mention that it ws given to the seriously ill, Just like the other studies, ie too late and no Zinc.

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31180-6/fulltext

  59. A C Osborn says:

    The study is interesting they selected groups of patients to match those that had HCQ or CQ from a base of 81144 in the supposed control group, they matched them for age, sex co-morbitities etc.
    How doees anyone know who they chose as it was conducted after the event, did they choose patients because they had good outcomes?
    The really big difference in the groups is the Mechanical Ventilation.
    They use it as an outcome, but do not discuss whether it was an input to the study.
    ie were they already on or about to receive ventilation.

  60. A C Osborn says:

    One other thing, it was paid for by big pharma.

  61. jim2 says:

    From the Lancet study: . Patients who received one of the treatments of interest within 48 h of diagnosis were included in one of four treatment groups

    This is not a measure of how long they had the disease. 12% of the patients in the study died. Does this mean they were already pretty far along the development of the disease?

  62. ossqss says:

    Here is figure 1 from the study with respect to qualifiers and application.

  63. cdquarles says:

    From the study: “Our study has several limitations. The association of decreased survival with hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine treatment regimens should be interpreted cautiously. Due to the observational study design, we cannot exclude the possibility of unmeasured confounding factors, although we have reassuringly noted consistency between the primary analysis and the propensity score matched analyses. Nevertheless, a cause-and-effect relationship between drug therapy and survival should not be inferred. These data do not apply to the use of any treatment regimen used in the ambulatory, out-of-hospital setting. Randomised clinical trials will be required before any conclusion can be reached regarding benefit or harm of these agents in COVID-19 patients. We also note that although we evaluated the relationship of the drug treatment regimens with the occurrence of ventricular arrhythmias, we did not measure QT intervals, nor did we stratify the arrhythmia pattern (such as torsade de pointes). We also did not establish if the association of increased risk of in-hospital death with use of the drug regimens is linked directly to their cardiovascular risk, nor did we conduct a drug dose-response analysis of the observed risks. Even if these limitations suggest a conservative interpretation of the findings, we believe that the absence of any observed benefit could still represent a reasonable explanation.”

    My take: This is a study designed to malign CQ/HCQ/macrolides. It did not include a tetracycline derivative. Major problem with it is that it is skewed using a likely flawed test (Cox regression), poorly interpreted hazard ratios and uses p-values. Just like the ‘pause-buster’ papers.

  64. YMMV says:

    Coronavirus Pandemic Update 74: Vitamin D & COVID 19; Academic Censorship

    Vit-D does no harm, Vit-D is one of the things that helps.
    Will the YouTube police take down this video?
    There is a clip at the end of the YouTube CEO saying they will take down videos that say Vit-C is a cure. And anything that goes against WHO dogma.
    They’ve taken down a lot of videos and as far as I know none of them say any one thing is a cure.

    From the comments:
    For those interested, a MedCram viewer created a petition against academic censorship from YouTube: https://www.change.org/p/youtube-tell-youtube-to-letusdecide-and-stopcensoring-content
    See all our COVID-19 updates free at our website: https://www.medcram.com/courses/coronavirus-outbreak-symptoms-treatment

    That first comment goes on to list the titles of all their Covid videos so far, with links.
    You can see which ones YouTube has censored by them having a non-YT link.

  65. cdquarles says:

    Here is another take on that Lancet article, from a practicing oncologist: https://twitter.com/breastoncdoc/status/1263936846544932866.

  66. YMMV says:

    As we go into summer and the lockdowns are eased a bit in some places and we get used to the new normal, will we wake up and realize that the authoritarians have seized control and are not about to let go?

    There is mounting evidence that the lockdowns came too late and did nothing to stop the virus. The increased “social distancing” helped but the lockdowns added nothing. It was a crisis some in power took advantage of. There can be no doubt that lockdowns are extremely destructive.

    There is mounting evidence that this “novel” virus is just another flu. Some flu picks off the weak and elderly every winter; we just didn’t notice before. Old people in care homes die all the time, very often of “pneumonia”. A loss to a family, but not big news, and no further investigation. Possibly there were even “do not resuscitate” instructions for those patients. Statistics show that this year has not been that different from a typical year. Last year was the anomaly. Fewer old people died last winter. They escaped fate then, but they met it this year. We didn’t care then, they were old, and we don’t care now, they are old. “We” as a society, that is. The big die-offs were there, we didn’t notice. Even in Italy. The difference was that this time it looked for a while like it could hit the young too.

    It is looking like this virus is seasonal. The virus does not spread so much in summer. Maybe because people are healthier in the summer; cold is not healthy. If this virus follows the pattern, it will be back. Not just for a second wave, but every winter. There is always winter somewhere to keep it going.

    Which means that we will eventually build up herd immunity. Which is an oxymoron, but nevertheless enough people will have had it or have some immunity to it that it makes it harder for the virus to spread. The initial estimates were that 80% was needed. We have more data now. The “flu” is peaking everywhere (in the northern half of the world) with much lower numbers than that. It seems that many people have some innate immunity to this virus, for whatever reason.

    What have we learned? The successful countries to massive testing and contact tracing and have good heath care systems and young healthy people. Wealth is good, if it is spent wisely.
    Qatar has only had 12 deaths, in over 16,000 cases, and they have massive testing so they are confident that the case rate they have found is close to the true rate. Singapore has done well.

    Here are a couple videos that discuss these ideas.

    https://unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubles-down-sunetra-gupta-interview/
    https://thefatemperor.com/ep78-stanford-professor-and-nobel-prize-winner-explains-this-viral-lockdown-fully/

    Both interviews may or may not still be on YouTube as you read this, so the above links are not directly to YouTube.

  67. A C Osborn says:

    YMMV, I do hope that those words “There is mounting evidence that this “novel” virus is just another flu” are not yours.
    As this virus is not anything like any Flu we have ever had, Flu does not cause blood clots and Flu does not directly attack the Lung tissue.

  68. YMMV says:

    I have no opinion on this. Originally, I thought the people who said this was just a flu were deniers and that this “novel” flu was more like the Spanish Flu. Obviously it is not your father’s flu. Look at the video. Their logic is that the death rate is not that novel. It hit hard because it was new, but how different is it? Is the difference that it is more contagious, more effective in getting into cells? Once it gets into cells, how different is it from a “normal” flu virus. We have studied this one a lot. Have we studied the normal ones in such detail? Are we sure that the old ones do not have the same traits, maybe in a less effective form? Because we just wrote “pneumonia” on the death certificate and did not look deeper? So I no longer have an opinion. Convince me one way or the other. Certainly this one has a high Fear Factor. It even put Climate Change on the back burner for a few weeks (be thankful for small things).

    BTW, Sabretoothed on the Fenbendazole thread posted a video link to someone who does not think Covid-19 is a virus, but rather an Exosome. He did not convince me, but his story of how the Chinese first evaluated the virus once it was in the wet market is interesting.

    The virus and its side effects are bad/sad, but I feel I am watching or in an ongoing CSI mini-series.

  69. YMMV says:

    “Remdesivir for the Treatment of Covid-19 — Preliminary Report”
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007764
    (New England Journal of Medicine)

  70. A C Osborn says:

    YMMV says: 23 May 2020 at 10:56 pm
    “Remdesivir for the Treatment of Covid-19 — Preliminary Report”

    There is one big question in the study on Table 1. In the baseline scores, which I assume means at the the beginning of the study we have
    7. Hospitalised with Mechanical Ventilation Remdesivir = 125 patients Placebo = 147 patients.
    If that is correct is there any wonder that Remdsdivir had less deaths when an extra 25 patients on ventilation were just given a placebo?
    Because we all know the what their chances are.

  71. E.M.Smith says:

    https://realclimatescience.com/2020/05/five-people-shot-in-washington-die-from-covid-19/

    Looks like it is actually in their statistics. .. “regardless of cause” dead are tested and assigned to Chinese Wuhan Covid if the virus is present…

  72. ossqss says:

    Linked in the previous article. Quite interesting data.

    https://swprs.org/studies-on-covid-19-lethality/

  73. E.M.Smith says:

    @Ossqss:

    You are on a hot streak lately! Between those links and that Navy Seal video: did you put something in your oats?

    :-)

  74. ossqss says:

    @EM, that only happens when it rains :-)

  75. A C Osborn says:

    In the study of Lethality what is the “Age-adjusted IFR based on US population.” for the Diamond Princess.
    They get it to come out at 0.13% when the actual rate is 1.8%.
    I am not sure what they are trying to prove as the current deaths/cases worldwide = 6.3%.
    There are no where near as many cases as they thought there were based on Stockholm where they only have 7% towards herd immunity.

  76. ossqss says:

    My guess is the ~ between IFR and CFR AC.

  77. YMMV says:

    A C Osborn: “As this virus is not anything like any Flu we have ever had, Flu does not cause blood clots and Flu does not directly attack the Lung tissue.”

    The blood clot issue with this virus is being confirmed. This video talks about a recent Lancet article which backs up that hypothesis — he calls it the smoking gun. Later in the video he talks about another article which shows that if you have had a cold caused by a corona type virus (one of four others), you probably have T-cells that could protect you from this one.

    I like Dr. Seheult.

    WHO, not so much, if at all. The latest anti-HCQ news:
    “Dr. Michael Ryan, WHO’s emergencies chief, said there was no indication of any safety problems with hydroxychloroquine in the WHO trial to date. “We’re just acting on an abundance of caution based on the recent results of all the studies to ensure that we can continue safely with that arm of the trial,” he said.”

    And don’t step on the cracks in the sidewalk either!

  78. A C Osborn says:

    The next thing the WHO will do is call for a world wide ban.

  79. Pingback: Spain Wuhan Virus IFR 1.16% — Musings from the Chiefio – Truth Troubles

  80. p.g.sharrow says:

    I should think that a World Wide ban on WHO would be in order. For crimes against humanity with their always wrong pronouncements

  81. A C Osborn says:

    France have banned it already.

  82. ossqss says:

    So I read the CDC is changing their changed opinion on masks again today again. Flip a coin eh?

    Then there’s this……

    https://mises.org/power-market/cdc-slashed-covid-19-fatality-rate-fraction-earlier-estimate-used-justify-lockdowns

Comments are closed.