Wuhan Covid: It Is About How Fast, Not How Many. Time To end Lock Downs.

We are being handed a “Bait and Switch”. The “30 days to flatten the curve” was to spread out infections over time. It was never about preventing infections. Now we are being told the lock downs must continue to prevent infections. No. With a native R-naught or R0 of 6 to 12 you simply cannot prevent eventual infection.

Hospitals are now way below capacity. We need to start using them for all health issues again.

We have used the flattened curve time to develop effective treatments. From HCQ+Zpack to Ivermectin+ Doxycycline along with sterouda and anticoagulants and more. It is time to now rescue the economy by using those trearments. It is time to address the non-covid backlog of medical needs which are poised to cause more deaths than covid going forward.

Furthermore, it looks like herd immunity is being reached in many countries at about 15% infected. Not 80%. A large part of the population is naturally immune. IMHO likely from a combination of cross immunity to other corona viruses and higher vitamin D and other immune enhancing nutrients.

Evidence, reasoning, and analysis here:


While I was getting ready for this posting, Ossqss raised the same point here (h/t):


It links to: https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

That has a very nice time lapse graph of cases by country, showing the drops as we are reaching herd immunity.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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31 Responses to Wuhan Covid: It Is About How Fast, Not How Many. Time To end Lock Downs.

  1. Nancy & John Hultquist says:

    Abruptly ending lock downs would require the governors, such as Jay Inslee of the left coast State of Washington, to admit mistakes. Not a chance. SF and NYC took over hotels to house drug users and other mental patients. They spend $200-300 dollars per day on each of these folks and the neighborhood suffers crime and a general trashing. Meanwhile the mayors (with their BLM advisors) hobble the police, and see their well-healed residents flee. The Nation’s wealth is evaporating faster than morning fog on a sunny beach.
    Officials don’t know how to end this mess.

  2. u.k.(us) says:

    I keep hearing about “herd immunity”.
    Still haven’t herd a simple explanation of it.
    Wanna give it a shot ?, take your time :)

  3. cdquarles says:

    The concept is rather simple. A parasitic pathogen can only propagate when there are hosts that are susceptible to it. A fast propagating pathogen that is associated with a high mortality rate in its hosts will eventually ‘run out of hosts’ to keep propagating itself. A slow propagating pathogen that is associated with no or very mild illness with eventually reach all hosts available (the herd), which changes over time as new ones are born and old ones die. A fast propagating but minimally fatal pathogen will quickly saturate. Host susceptibility is a function of group variability in innate immunity, whether that’s from lacking the receptor, innate cell mediated immunity, cross-reactive antibodies and/or other humoral immunity, or a combination of these.

  4. Alex says:

    I’m on HCQ one 200mg tablet every three or four days and Vit C with zinc daily. This provides 100% prophylaxis against the Communist Chinese Party/ Wuhan virus aka SARS Cov2.

    This is a SARS virus. SARS 1 was doing the rounds in 2004. In 2005-6 HCQ was found to be highly effective against SARS but the pandemic was already over when HCQ’s effectiveness was discovered. When the Wuhan virus hit the world, scientists and doctors went immediately for HCQ but the media and the left did their best to demonise it. But many are using the HCQ regime with great success.

  5. E.M.Smith says:

    @UK (us):

    A simpler explanation, by analogy:

    A guy comes to town selling Elixir guaranteed to fix what ails you. He sells 10 bottles the first day. It’s mostly booze, so folks feel better and tell friends. Next day he sells 30 bottles. About then, folks notice it’s mostly booze and isn’t really fixing what ails them. They not only have their “problem” back, but a hangover too. They all start telling their friends.

    Now the Small Town knows this is Snake Oil and heads over to scalp the guy, who has packed up and left town as that Town has reached Herd Immunity to his claims…

  6. cdquarles says:

    Lol, that’s a good one, our gracious host.

  7. u.k.(us) says:

    When, I ask, will any of our political class say “take the masks off and get back to it”.
    Never gonna happen, the populace will make that decision.

  8. tom0mason says:

    Don’t get PCR tested as it is a nonsense, as this relatively old (April 2020) piece explains —
    A very good read all about COVID PCR tests and how it is now being abused to give Government/medical authorities the results they want. The start of the piece is all about it’s history and HIV testing, about 2/3 of the way through it get to the COVID testing.


    It basically says because there is not a ‘gold standard’ COVID-19 virus standard (no purified CODID-19), the PCR tests give about a 80% false positive result depending on the number of iterations made (which is NOT standardized!). More iterations more chances of being found positive for the virus.

    “PCR detects a very small segment of the nucleic acid which is part of a virus itself. The specific fragment detected is determined by the somewhat arbitrary choice of DNA primers used which become the ends of the amplified fragment. “

    It is a method whereby you can amplify up any DNA/RNA ‘test sequence’ you want by interactively cycling the test.

    One of the countless head-spinning mysteries of this whole Corona Situation has been the advent of famous people, from Tom Hanks and his wife, to Sophie Trudeau, to Prince Charles announcing they had “tested positive” for COVID-19 and were self-quarantining. In all these famous-powerful people cases, the symptoms were either non-existent or mild. Why, one wondered, did they make such hay about it? The British Royals, especially, seemed to contradict their ethos of secrecy in this case. So what did it mean? It signaled, if anything, that COVID-19 is not all that deadly. That the virus can be present without causing the disease. That host factors matter. And that being “positive” for COVID-19 is neither a PR death sentence nor an actual death sentence. Maybe in their elite and esoteric language, it means some kind of prestige, or sacrament to a Pagan Virus Deity. Who knows? In the case of the Trudeau, Sophie tested positive, and had symptoms, while her husband Justin, the Prime Minister, never got sick, and was never tested. (He didn’t want to appear privileged; Not everybody can get tested in Canada, you must have symptoms.)

  9. E.M.Smith says:


    Glad to hear HCQ is working for you.

    A recent John Campbell video ponders why sub-saharan Africa has exceptionally low fatality rate, but South Africa is like Europe. I wonder if the fact that matches the malaria band where HCQ prophylaxis is widely available might be the cause….

  10. vcmathjm says:

    Couple the treatments with cheap, at home, daily tests to tell you if you are ineffective to others that day. Hard to understand why this is not being done. MedCram has been very good on this. The latest MedCram demos a test and talks to a test developer.

    COVID-19 Rapid Tests Demo & Q/A with E25Bio Co-Founder Dr. Herrera (At Home Antigen Tests)

  11. YMMV says:

    This video is good. Short and to the point. The usual testing finds cases which are past their best-before spreading days. His graphs where the deaths are plotted like a reflection of the cases are clever. During the epidemic there is a matching reflection, past the epidemic there is none. The epidemic is over, as much as it will ever be; the panic overkill continues.

  12. Phil Jourdan says:

    It could be 15% for herd immunity, but since the healthy are not being tested, it could be that the majority have already been infected and are asymptomatic.

    Regardless, I sadly agree with UK. The democrats have seized power and will not let it go.

  13. Another Ian says:
  14. YMMV says:

    “Coronavirus: Why Everyone Was Wrong”
    That’s a good one.

    You may also be interested in Ivor Cummins interview with Prof. Statler

  15. Scissor says:

    Excellent video, YMMV. Thanks

  16. Another Ian says:

    “Study shows frequently used serology test may not detect antibodies that could confirm protection against reinfection of COVID-19”


  17. Another Ian says:

    A “must read” this and link (IMO)

    “HCQ – an immorality tale”


  18. cdquarles says:

    Another immunology paper, in the journal Cell: https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0092-8674%2820%2931008-4. Limitations: small numbers and uses p values. If this holds up, the cytological T-cell typing should prove useful.

  19. p.g.sharrow says:

    Scientists See Signs of Lasting Virus Immunity, Even After Mild Infections

    “Scientists who have been monitoring immune responses to the coronavirus for months are now starting to see encouraging signs of strong, lasting immunity, even in people who developed only mild symptoms of Covid-19, a flurry of new studies has found.

    Disease-fighting antibodies, as well as immune cells called B cells and T cells capable of recognizing the virus, appear to persist months after infections have resolved — an encouraging echo of the body’s robust immune response to other viruses.”

    Herd immunity is increasing rapidly as new immunity is added to old. This thing will be long over before the politicians admit it.

  20. E.M.Smith says:


    A whole lot of nations and States have curves that have peaked. Demonstrating herd immunity is slready present. See the Belgium graph at 3 minutes, then the page showing all 50 States in one panel at 4 minutes:

    So IMHO, we’ve got about a month more of this for folks to realize that. But of course Democrat run States and cities will not let go of Wuhan Covid as cudgel until November.

  21. A C Osborn says:

    E.M.Smith says: 17 August 2020 at 2:03 pm
    Perhaps someone can explain to me how the Swedish “Mortality” rate at the start of the video has anything to do with Herd Immunity?

    Why hasn’t Spain, Luxembourg, Israel and Belgium achieved it, as they all have second waves either starting or going strong.
    Is it being assumed that Sweden has a high Case/Million rate with less tests/Million so therefore there must be a lot more untested asymptomatic cases?

  22. p.g.sharrow says:

    yes, it appears that the people that are susceptible and at risk have already succumbed to this virus.
    Wonder what is planned after the Democrats soundly lose this election. Maybe they are so sure that this time they can’t lose that their next step isn’t planned. The Democrats might be that stupid but I’m sure the GEBs have a backup.

  23. p.g.sharrow says:

    I’m sure that those places that have a second bump had a good prevention, isolation program early

  24. E.M.Smith says:

    The basic thesis is that, due to a very high R0, the area under the curve will be effectively constant. You can take your cases as one rise and drop, or do lock downs, put it off a little, then get another hump when you reduce isolation.

    The “one and done” no lock down folks take a higher first ramp up, but avoid the damages of a lockdown (at the risk of over running hospital capacity) and do not get a “second wave” as there is no reservoir of at risk people coming out of hiding.

    The “lock down” folks do not reduce total infections. They just postpone them and convert them to 2 (or maybe more) humps instead of one fast one. You get a smaller first wave (and hospitals under max capacity), but when folks start to come out of hiding, infections increase making a second (smaller) hump or wave. Repeat until the same total infection rate is reached and insufficient susceptible people are left to continue the infection chain.

    Both groups reach herd immunity (enough infections that propagation runs out of new hosts) and at the same total infection rate (area under the curves), just at different total duration and with different shapes of the curves.

    It is pretty well evidenced that herd immunity is happening at about 15% to 20% identified infections.

    Variations from that number can reflect many things. Diet (high insulin interferes with vit-D activation so US sugar and starch heavy diet an issue), average population age (Italy is highly gerontological and old folks get bad cases), vitamin status (blacks have problems making enough vit-D in the north, so also partly genetic), drug exposure (sub Saharan Blacks having very low morbidiy in malaria zones where OTC antimalarials like HCQ are widespread), and more. But in all cases the % infected are not dramatically different.

    You can move the total infection area under the curves a little bit, not much, and mostly though improving the innate immunity. (Vit-D + others), or you can change the shape and duration (not total infections) via lock downs, masks, etc.

    You can also dramatically change morbidity from near 10% down to near zero via nutrition, vitamin status, early zinc and antiviral use, good hospital care, and the accident of having few old people in your country. There is a possibility of cross immunity from other corona viruses, so populations with lots of prior infection ftom other viruses may benefit.

    Hopefully that clarifies.

  25. E.M.Smith says:

    Perhaps a shorter way:

    Deaths directly track infections with a couple of week lag time.

    Swedish deaths trailing off toward zero show that 2 weeks prior infections were trailing off toward zero. I.e, herd immunity.

  26. cdquarles says:

    Exactly. To die from an infection requires you to 1. get the infection and 2. not handle it well enough. To die with an infection requires you to 1. get the infection and 2. handle it sort of well enough to die from something else; or a combination.

    Do not forget seasonality. Northern temperate zones have a differing seasonality compared to tropical and subtropical zones. Northern latitudes first by the calendar then the subtropics/tropics then the Southern latitudes (here talking where winter/rainy/summer happen relative to the calendar).

  27. Another Ian says:

    “Antibodies against the Covid spike, not the shell, predict survival”

  28. cdquarles says:

    “Antibodies against the Covid spike, not the shell, predict survival”, as said by Another Ian, means that both T-cell mediated and B-cell mediated immunity will be directed against any and all antigens presented to it. Vaccines can be more selective; but you have to get that right and mitigate antibody dependent enhancement, either way.

  29. philjourdan says:

    Minnesota governor quietly brings back HCQ for treatment.

    Could that be because someone told him the Uganda had a total of 13 deaths from the WuFlu? And due to malaria, they regularly take HCQ?

    Fake news – in the business of killing people through lies.

  30. llanfar says:

  31. Another Ian says:


    Another Ian says:
    17 August 2020 at 10:05 pm

    “Antibodies against the Covid spike, not the shell, predict survival”

    Link included this time


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