W.O.O.D. – 14 October 2020

Intro

This is another of the W.O.O.D. series of semi-regular
Weekly Occasional Open Discussions.
(i.e. if I forget and skip one, no big)

Immediate prior one here:

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/09/15/w-o-o-d-14-september-2020/
and remains open for threads running there (at least until the ‘several month’ auto-close of comments on stale threads).

Canonical list of old ones here:
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/category/w-o-o-d/

For just general FYI notices, use to “tips” pages. All the old ones remain for historical reference:
Tips Pages

Three Weeks To The End Of This Crap

And the start of new crap…

As of now, it is just 3 weeks until the election of the US President (along with a load of congress and others) is nominally over. Due to many Democrat Party ruined States going to massive “mail in ballots” it may well be 3 months before we know who, if anyone, is the President.

I suspect that election night will turn into chaos as the non-answer dawns. Or, if Trump is elected and it’s clear he is POTUS even without the other States reporting: Expect the Globalists / China paid Communists & Socialists / Soros funded Color Revolution folks like BLM & Antifa and others to have a complete emotional explosion and destroy their home cities even more. OTOH, if Biden “wins” it will most likely be an incredible fraud, and expect all sorts of legal issues and media hysterics.

So, for the next 3 weeks we will have increasing tension, increasing “shit storms for effect”, and ever less sleep. Sigh.

Three Days to 3 Weeks to 3 Months for Brexit to really, finally, this time for sure! be done. Maybe.

We’ve got the EU doing their best to sell fear and do nothing in the hope they can get “Brexit in name only”, but it is dawning on them oh so slowly that a WTO exit would be fine for the UK. Boris has, supposedly, said something along the lines of ~”this week is it, we’re off”, but he is having last minute (for the what, 20th time now?) “talks” with the EU.

For God’s Sake, man, just leave already. Take your sovereignty and leave. Do NOT compromise your fishing territorial waters, your law making ability, your National Choice and Control on regulations, your ability to conduct free trade with the rest of the world. Get your self free. NOW. Please. Sign a free trade deal with the USA before the end of the year and get on with it.

The EU is NEVER going to be a decent negotiating partner (they have demonstrated this many times already). They are wedded to the Globalist Abuse Platform. JUST WALK AWAY. Once Germany realizes it’s not selling as many cars into the UK, and once the reality of “no fishing for you” has been absorbed into the French and Spanish governments, then they will be much more flexible in their “demands”.

What’s Going On?

Chinese Wuhan Covid Lockdowns Unconstitutional and Failing – Again

The W.H.O. has even come out and said the time for lockdowns is over. It is now killing far more than the disease. We can effectively treat Chinese Wuhan Covid, and mortality is lowest while Vitamin D is highest and that is Right Now end of summer and sun.

It’s time to just get back to life and move on.

In Conclusion

I know. Short summary this time. But really, everything is on hold until the election happens. China and India and most of the rest of the Chinese neighbours are on the verge of war, but nobody will move until they know what the USA will become. Storms and such are causing lots of crop failures; but nothing will be stated as such until after the harvest season is done.

The whole world is just collectively marking time until the USA election is over and a Chinese Wuhan Covid vaccine is approve. Until that happens, it’s just circling the drain.

Companies are starting massive layoffs as the lockdowns exceed their ability to carry employees and no more bailout money is coming (thanks, Nancy… /sarc;) so we’ve had 5 figure layoffs in everything from Disney to other media to airlines and more. It’s the end game of the Democrat Party scorched earth plan to ruin the economy and blame it on Trump. But that blame redirection isn’t working. From riots to looting to burning city centers to forest fire arson: It has all happened in Democrat controlled cities and States. Similarly, the lockdowns leading to bankruptcy and layoffs. There’s a deep hatred for all things Democrat forming in the gut of Americans. Or at least those with a bit of clue.

In other news… it turns out that Democrats are about 80-90% scared of Covid and scared of going out to vote. Republicans are about 80-90% fine with going out, groups, voting in person.

Mail-in ballots have a MUCH higher rejection / error rate. Most of the mail-in ballots will be Democrats. Think about it… Recently California issued a plea to STOP disinfecting your mail in ballots as it smears the ink and the ballot is rejected. Fearful Democrats were alcohol washing them… Their push to promote mail-in ballots could very well cost Democrats the win just due to a few percentage higher rejection rate of predominantly Democrat voters ballots. Karma, it’s a thing ;-)

Let’s see. 3 Weeks. 21 Days. At 3 bottles a week, that’s 9 bottles. Call it $50 to $100 of “anaesthesia” budget. I think I can swing that. The bigger question is will it still be just 3 a week in 2 weeks…

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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76 Responses to W.O.O.D. – 14 October 2020

  1. spetzer86 says:

    If Biden wins, the fraud will be found out about three months later and will be obvious, explicit, and wide spread. The MSM will collectively yawn and say “it’s too late to do anything about it, so let’s just move on”. Another Hillary moment for US law, where nobody is above the law, unless they’ve got a D by their name.

  2. stewartpid says:

    Chiefio …. no recent comments on the stock market etc
    Whats up? U just sitting out this one?
    I always enjoyed your musings on Mr Market.

  3. Nancy & John Hultquist says:

    Washington State began mail-in voting on a very small scale about 40 years ago. Slowly, new categories were allowed. Lots to learn. Then, 11 years ago, I think, we went to 99+%.
    Our voter instruction pamphlets came last week.
    Ballots will be mailed this Friday, the 16th.
    They can be mailed back, but we drop ours in a box in front of the courthouse.
    Washingtonians find the “jump into mail-in with both feet” states flat out crazy. Whatever can go wrong, will.

  4. pinroot says:

    I can’t believe that they’re allowing mail-in voting on such an unprecedented scale for such an important election. Everyday I see headlines about mail being found in dumpsters, ballots being sent to dead people, somewhere there were ballots without the presidential candidates included, and it goes on and on. I’ve started collecting articles as I find them.
    I’m in NC and our early voting begins tomorrow, so I’ll take half a day off from work to go stand in line (I’ll be out of town on Nov 3rd, so I have to vote early). This is a fairly liberal area of the state, so I expect that there won’t be that many people in line. I hope I’m wrong because that will mean that they’re mostly conservatives, voting for Trump. I hope.

  5. pouncer says:

    I very much doubt any state will track nor any media report some very simple statistics on the vote.
    What’s the population in each precinct? Of those, how many are registered voters? (Any precinct with more voters than residents deserves some prosecutorial scrutiny…) Of the registered voters, how many received ballots and of what style — absentee, “mail”, in-person, provisional, other? What was the total number of ballots issued? What was the total number of ballots returned? (Again, if a county or precinct shows more ballots coming in than were sent out, something criminal happened.) Of the ballots returned, how many were “voted”? A ballot with undervotes, unclear marking or the proverbial “dimpled chad” may or may not be a problem but before we go to the trouble of trying to Karnak the Psychic the intent, let’s just all agree on how many there are to worry about. Also, that number had better not change during later processes. Of the returned, clearly voted ballots, now we’re finally ready to discuss which candidates got how many votes each. Now some comparisons. If a precinct has, for example, a 60/40 split on mail ballots and a 50/50 split on in-person, we should be paying attention.

  6. E.M.Smith says:

    @Stewardpid:

    The problem is we are now in a 100% political market. You can not use “market forces”, nor earnings, nor reports, nor trend following graphs (my major tool) to predict a Political Market.

    At any time, today, tomorrow, next week:

    Pelosi could agree to a multi $Trillion ballout package and drive stocks through the roof; or she could decide “more destruction will work better for Dims” and close all businesses via some machination or other.

    The Fed could launch a HUGE stimulus campaign, or it could decide it was over extended and pull back; a decision driven by political considerations in these times.

    Several major State Governors could force businesses into bankruptcy (happening now with mandatory closings) or they could announce it is time to open up, pronto.

    Etc.

    It is not possible to know what those folks are going to decide. It is not possible to predict the finer points of the election, and thus the aftermath. Will we have 15 Supreme Court Justices in 9 months? Or 8? Will we be running full tilt to Socialism and Zero Carbon (i.e. ALL oil, gas, coal, gas stations, trucking companies, etc. to be bankrupted) or will we have Rule Of Law, Markets, and low cost abundant energy?

    With so much astounding risk, and zero predictive ability, there’s not much that can be done, or said. (One could use options and buy a straddle, but then the implied volatility makes that hard to do and still make money, plus, not a lot of folks here will be options traders.) But since about all we know is that the market OUGHT to move, one way or the other, on the election, about all you can do is ask “Is implied volatility low enough that a straddle will pay off?”.

    The other bit:

    At present, the ONLY thing causing the market to be so high is that The Fed shoved a tidal wave of money at it (and maybe a little bit that the “relief” package paid them to not fire everyone). BUT, the relief package is at an end and The Fed is already painfully over leveraged. Not much more coming on those fronts, most likely. So companies are now starting massive layoffs (just in time for the pain to hit at election time… wonder how many of the executives are Dems…)

    So we have a market in debt to the clouds, NOT making profits, and on the edge of destruction for many sectors, laying off folks in the 10s of thousands sized tranches. Those folks will NOT be buying a lot of stuff. Similarly, folks not working in offices don’t need much “lunch money”, or suits, or gas, or car repairs or… So the cascade is already in progress and acceleration will follow… UNLESS a Trump Win has folks accept that the whole Lockdown-Blame-Trump didn’t work and they really need to get back to making money…

    So I’d not want to go long into that good night… yet I’d not want to be sitting on cash for 6 months while The Fed prints up a boatload more to pay debts and fund bailouts.

    As a consequence, at this point, I’m about 90% real estate, 5% cash, and 5% selected stocks. That’s basically a “inflation coming” defensive posture. IF after a Trump win businesses open overnight and folks start shopping and dining in droves, I’m positioned exactly wrong. But I think that is unlikely.

    You can’t print many $Trillions and not have an inflation pressure. You can’t shut down whole segments of the economy for a year and have it just come up roses when you change your mind. Movie theaters (all theaters, really) are totally screwed. Dining out will be on the disabled list for years. New car sales? Who will have the money? Who will need a new car with so many folks either not working or telecommuting? Retail? Clothing? Only modest replacement sales for a long while. The list goes on.

    Essentially, we have moribund productivity and a skyrocketing mountain of obligations for it to support. Either we get back to productivity soon, or we face rampant erosion.

    That in the face of a Fed who’s way out of “stimulus” ability, a demoralized business community, and political chaos. The RISK in the risk / reward ratio is just crazy high.

    Oh, and a huge mob of folks ran off to buy gold, driving it to unsustainable and crazy prices. As soon as mining starts again, the stuff that can be mined at $500 to $1000 per ounce is going to flood into that market… But when will that be? Ask a politician…

  7. llanfar says:

    @pinroot I’ll be in line here too (Cary)

  8. philjourdan says:

    I disagree on the 3 month thing. The states that are doing the cheat by mail are going to go Biden (maybe!). But the ones doing it honestly will decide the election and those are going Trump. So the “popular cheat by mail vote” will not be known for 3 months. But popular does not elect the president.

    And SCOTUS will call a halt to this charade. I figure a 8-1 or 7-1 (if ACB is not on the court at that time) vote to stop it. The unwise Latina being the idiot.

  9. philjourdan says:

    @Stewardpid and EM – The lack of another trillion+ dollar bail out is what the founders had in mind. Yea, the stock market is riding the Fed fusion. But the reason that employment is lagging (I see Help wanted signs all over the place and am constantly bombarded with job offers from head hunters) is the sweet UE benefits.

    Personally, I cannot stand to WFH! And would go bat shit crazy if I was NWFH or anywhere else! But I am a child of the poor. I have been working at one odd job or another since I was 11. And some of that was SS taxable. So I have 53 years of SS wages. Of course that means squat. as they only take your 35 best years. Which means I will never see what I paid in. But that is life.

  10. Serioso says:

    If I understand the voting rules in North Carolina correctly, early ballots are counted within a week of receipt (although the results re not revealed until election day, and early balloting is no longer permitted after 10/31),. Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern Time.So it seems likely the the North Carolina totals will be in by 9 or 10 p.m Eastern Time. Assuming a landslide one way or the other, we should be able to forecast accurately the national results long before midnight.

  11. E.M.Smith says:

    @Serioso:

    Here in California, early voting basically creates a mail-in ballot that goes in an envelope then a drop box. Not real regular voting style. I think they process them early, but I’m not sure. In any case, we know California will go to Biden. Only “by how much” will tell us anything.

    FWIW, I’m actually happy the election will be up in the air for a day or two. Most years, the POTUS is called before California polls even close. Often hours before. This will be nice in that I’ll actually feel like California counts…

  12. pinroot says:

    @llanfar Good to hear. If this thread is still active I’ll post my experiences, if anything interesting happens.

  13. pinroot says:

    Since this is an open discussion, what does anyone/everyone think about the NY Post article regarding Hunter Biden’s emails and photos, and Twitter and Facebook censoring and banning any mention of the Post’s article? Is it this election’s “October Surprise”?

  14. cdquarles says:

    It is one of them and the “press” is doing damage control, in my opinion.

  15. E.M.Smith says:

    That Twater and Faceplant are banning it, proves it is true. Just my opinion.

    They don’t have the resources to ban irrelevant stuff nor the self control to realize their tell.

  16. H.R. says:

    @Serioso – Thanks for the info on NC mail-in voting. That’s yet another way to go about it.
    .
    .
    .
    I’ve run across a half-dozen different ways various States are going to count mail-in votes. Mostly the differences have registered on my consciousness only because the methods are being challenged in the courts What I’ve noted is that the court challenges seem to be either about the number of drop boxes allowed, the date by when the ballot must be postmarked, or both.

    There has also been a major fuss about solicited vs. unsolicited ballots, solicited ballots being the good old formally requested absentee ballot that has always been available in all of the States. My State is only accepting the solicited ballots under the rules that have been in place for years. No controversy here that I’m aware of.

    I guess the legal bug-tussles are going on in the States that are allowing unsolicited ballots. That’s a major can of worms. If there’s a delay in vote counting, I suspect it will be in those States as both Parties will be challenging unsolicited ballots and demanding verification that the ballot was filled out and sent in by the person whose name is on the ballot. That could *ahem* take a while.
    .
    .
    .
    It’s a mystery to me (not really) why all of a sudden, several States wanted to go to all mail-in voting with unsolicited ballots when those States have had for years, a fairly secure system of mail-in absentee voting via requested absentee ballots. The only fly in that ointment is that was how a lot of dead people managed to vote if they were never purged from voter rolls. No one really wants them to show up to vote in person now, do they? ;o)

  17. H.R. says:

    @pinroot re Hunter Biden and the NYP article:

    Shhhhh… The real fuss is that is how our so-called elected public servants have been enriching themselves for years. It’s not just a Biden thing or Democrat thing or Republican thing. Hunter (yes, he dunnit) is just the pop-tab ring that will open the whole can of worms on all of the House Reps and Senators who have been selling access to their office. There are precious few that manage to keep their hands completely clean while swimming in the muck of the DC swamp.

    Hunter was just stupid when going about it. You’d have thought ol’ Gropin’ Joe would have taught Hunter better. And you can bet there are a lot of people in DC right now that are checking with their bagmen/relatives that there are no loose ends that could possibly be tugged on to unravel their graft and bribes.

    “Wipe everything… with a cloth, if you have to.”

  18. jim2 says:

    More and more Pelosi if feeling the heat for not getting a corona virus support bill passed. Trump, with a mixture of genius and balls, walked away from the Dimowit version with many toxic aspects: bailouts for blue state pension funds, legalized ballot harvesting, and much much more. Pelosi lost it with Wolf Blitzer who was pressing her on why she won’t compromise for the sake of the downtrodden citizens. It’s a sweet thing to watch :)

  19. E.M.Smith says:

    Pentatonix has a new video out. Looks like they are re-formed (have been for a while) with the Bass guy replaced. Still sound pretty good.

    I’m really fond of some of their original stuff, so I guess I’ll need to check out what they have done recently. For a little while they had broken up as a couple of them wanted to go after personal careers. Looks like most of them realize there’s something special in the combination too…

  20. Another Ian says:

    The Great Barrier Reef is still there and thriving despite headlines you may meet in the ysm

    ““Proxies” Claim Half the GBR Corals Dead – But Not in Real Life”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/10/15/half-the-corals-dead-but-not-in-real-life/

  21. Another Ian says:

    Like that “level playing field in agriculture” eh?

    “”New Hunter Biden Emails Show Sales of Influence to Chinese Interests – Millions Paid to Biden Family for “Introductions” and Legal “Assistance”… ”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/10/15/new-hunter-biden-emails-show-sales-of-influence-to-chinese-interests-millions-paid-to-biden-family-for-introductions-and-legal-assistance/

  22. E.M.Smith says:

    “Legal Assistance” like how Kamala’s Husband works as lawyer for a law firm employed by China? IMHO, Kamala is only on the ticket because China owns the DNC and they wanted an “All Pwned” by China ticket.

  23. Another Ian says:

    A pretty deep pile listed here

    http://ace.mu.nu/archives/390812.php

  24. Another Ian says:

    Better check your party supplies by this

    “Giuliani: You’ve Only Seen Five Percent of What’s on Hunter Biden’s Hard Drive ”

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2020/10/15/giuliani-youve-only-seen-five-percent-of-whats-on-hunter-bidens-hard-drive-n2578151

  25. ossqss says:

    Well, here ya go. From ZH since the original link is no longer good. Go figure!

    https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/covid-not-categorically-different-danger

  26. llanfar says:

    We got to the polling place at poll opening – mistake. Took 10 minutes driving around to find a parking place. Then just over 3 hours in line to get to the voting intake (which they called “application” – odd choice). At that point it was painless.

    Heading out, we passed by the end of the line – longer than when we first got there. Off to Another Broken Egg to celebrate our vote (I had jalapeño cornbread waffle & brisket eggs Benedict).

  27. beththeserf says:

    Loved that, Ian. )

    Came in to show a video from the past, Joe Biden and Thomas Sowell, 1987. I’m an admirer of Thomas Sowell, Listen to him on Peter Robinson, ‘Uncommon Knowledge and I wrote a post on his excellent book, ‘Wealth, Poverty and Politics,’ written 5 years ago when he was in his mid eighties. Joe Biden, tho’ not noticeably sharp back then, is scarcely recognisable as the Joe Biden standing for President of the United States today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qO7rHaCi-7M&ab_channel=IngramFry

  28. cdquarles says:

    Another great article: https://lockdownsceptics.org/what-sage-got-wrong/. We discussed the main points pretty much at the start of this.

  29. philjourdan says:

    They have in person early voting, no excuse needed in my State. It started about the end of September, so I went and voted on October 5. Took all of 15 minutes. Line was not that long, and moved quickly. I guess those voting early do not have to think about who they are voting for, they already know. But there were 2 amendments to the Commonwealth Constitution on the ballot. I voted for one and against the other. The other was about handing off the redistricting to a new committee instead of having the legislature do it. Which is stupid because the legislature would pick the committee to start with!

  30. YMMV says:

    What SAGE got wrong, and everybody else, and they are still getting it wrong. Good article.
    The take-away graphic:

    Making models without putting in the science, yuk.

    See also:
    https://judithcurry.com/2020/10/14/t-cell-cross-reactivity-and-the-herd-immunity-threshold/
    and copied at
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/10/15/t-cell-cross-reactivity-and-the-herd-immunity-threshold/

  31. YMMV says:

    Update to cross-reactivity: It’s complicated.
    Antigens which you have got from previous corona virus events can be good, or they can be bad.
    Good when they work against the new virus. But when they are triggered by the new virus but do not inactivate it, they just get in the way and produce cytokine storms. This has a cute name: Original antigenic sin.

    Drbeen Medical Lectures explains this in detail. Technical, but understandable if you care to dive in. This is his 199th video about coronavirus. Dr. Mobeen Syed. Based in California.

    NOTE: skip the first couple minutes because the sound is not working.

  32. E.M.Smith says:

    @YMMV:

    Thanks! Just the kind of stuff that a marginal Aspe with a Bio background loves to dive into ;-)

  33. jim2 says:

    My MX Linux issues are fixed. Printer works normally as does sound. However …

    I had uninstalled Pulseaudio in an earlier attempt to fix the lack of sound. The Pulseaudio team is also part or all of the SystemD team. The install put SystemD in place of sysvinit.

    Bummer, but I’m leaving it as is for now.

  34. cdquarles says:

    @YMMV,
    Indeed they are, which is why antibody dependent enhancement can and does occur with natural infections as well as with vaccines (remember, vaccines are designed to give a controlled dose to prime your immune system so it can react to a subsequent exposure and not all exposures will result in infection). That’s why immunomodulation, whether innate or enhanced by astute observation and treatments, often help.

  35. Dive 4414 says:

    Looks like Steve Brannon is going scorched earth over his indictment, 2 more weeks of Biden Crime Family Piñata. Congress should be fun, that dirt may never see the light of day….

  36. cdquarles says:

    Interesting thread: https://twitter.com/kylamb8/status/1317186379483406337. I agree with Kyle Lamb here, from a biological point of view. Every successful organism alters the local environment to enhance its own survival. You can be exposed to and infected by more than one virus at a time. Can there be testing artifacts? Of course. Still, the most successful organisms will displace other competitors to the extent it *is* more successful.

  37. Toldyaso says:

    The tinfoil hat people did get it right. NO ONE can be trusted with freedom of speech. No one can be trusted NOT to spy on your phone calls, your mail, or even your laptop repairs.

    Say what you will about tinfoil people, they are why you now have Tor, I2P, or Zeronet to turn to.

    I have personally witnessed telco techs listening in on phone calls many times. This butt sniffing is NOT exceptional – it is the rule. It’s so common only a dingbat would consider anything safe when stored or transferred unencrypted,

    Admit I enjoy the salt with Biden’s laptop – but remain plenty disgusted too. Pretty certain that creep has imaged drives from other customers. Perhaps your daughter’s? Maybe be planted a timed video app to watch her for you?

    We once killed snitches and sneaks in this country.

  38. E.M.Smith says:

    Well… this will be fun… NOT!

    Just lost an 8 TB Disk of archived tenperature data and scrapes.

    It turns, bleeps, and stops. Doesn’t light active light. I suspect the electronics. It is a sealed Seagate with maybe 30 hours of use on it? About 6 TB actually used.

    The good news:

    I was mistly consolidating backup copies on this disk. I’m pretty sure I have a duplicate of most or all of it. But scattered over other littler disks.

    I also have 8 TB of Western Digital disk (2 x 4GB) I can use to remake an archive.

    Other not so good:

    A few days finding, curating, organizing and dupicating data are ahead of me.

    I have 2 other identical Seagate 8 TB disks of similar vintage holding important stuff.

    I THINK I have enough free disk space to duplucate everything, but not what I had planned for this week…

    After the duplicating is done, I might try extracting the physical drive to see it I can make it go inside a PC. IF I’m lucky, its an electrolytic capacitor in the power handling and a transplant will fix it…

  39. cdquarles says:

    Interesting article if you are into epidemiology: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.09.20210146v1.full.pdf. Statistical modeling is inherent in it and the epidemiologist fallacy often applies.

  40. E.M.Smith says:

    Well, something of a pleasant surprise…

    Prior, I’d put all the temp data on an LVM volume set. Two 4 TB disks. (I also have another 2 x 4 TB disks for other stuff…). I’d mostly just copied that data onto the single 8 TB disk to make the desk neater and disk management a whole lot easier (i.e. avoiding all those LVM commands and such). Well, plugging the two LVM disks back into the little Orange Pi One nfs server, I had the good sense to leave all the data on them! So looks like my “scrounge around and try to reassemble the collection from a gaggle of small disks” has turned into “Audit the LVM set plus the other disks to assure you really have 2 copies of everything that matters.”

    Yeah, auditing a dozen TB of disk archives still isn’t the most exciting day (week?) but it sure beats “What do you mean years of data collection are gone?”… by A LOT!

    I’ll never again worry myself in the store over buying a new disk… I’d thought “I don’t REALLY need the 8 TB disks. I have all the data on 4 TB disks and it works.” but they were on sale at COSTCO for some ridiculous price like $80… So I bought them and just figured “I’ll copy everything onto the smaller sleeker set and just set the 4 TB ‘MyBook’ disks on the shelf…” So I’ve been carrying about 16 TB of “excess disk space”… but having “copies in depth” along with a half dozen TB of free space has just paid off 8-)

    Color me very happy…

    Though I’m back at making sure archive sets are on the MyBook disks and only working sets of stuff are on the (remaining) two Seagate 8 TB drives. Having one bite the dust on me with hardly any actual run time over about a year elapsed time is not very encouraging… It mostly just sat on the desk and was only plugged into an SBC at the time I was working on temperature data. In that use case, a hard disk ought to last a decade+ easy.

    So, OK, as a feature, now I get to “destructively examine” the dead drive. It’s a sealed plastic case, so likely going to take a moto-tool cutting wheel (unless there are screws cleverly hidden under the feet or something…)

    So, “tail of woe” essentially over, and turned into “tail of data management audit” for now…

    Sidebar on Orange Pi One:

    I’m typing this in Firefox on the dinky little Orange Pi One nfs server (logged in to do things like change /etc/fstab to use the LVM group and such). It is working surprisingly well as a desktop. The 512 MB of memory rapidly gets over-run when you launch the browser, so stuff spills over to swap. Presently 269 MB in swap. 4 units of /dev/zram then two swap partitions on the two LVM disks (in addition to the LVM partitions) and a backup GB of /SWAPFILE on the uSD at way low priority.

    Only occasionally do I notice a “swap lag”. Like on launching the browser and opening a big page with videos, when all sorts of stuff rolls to swap.

    I’d not want to use it as a Daily Driver, but as an emergency system, for $18 or so, it was a heck of a deal. Temperature about 65 C (with dinky R.Pi type heat sink on it). So it’s clearly being memory limited with swap causing the sporadic pauses / sloth.

  41. Another Ian says:

    Read this and chuckle! Another round in an on-going Canadian saga that has featured at SDA

    https://www.restorecsa.com/news/article/knights-code-is-back

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/10/19/renegade-regulator-20/

  42. Another Ian says:

    “Inflection Point – President Trump: “I’ll only say this once”…”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/10/19/inflection-point-president-trump-ill-only-say-this-once/

  43. E.M.Smith says:

    @Toldyaso:

    And folks wonder why I hate using email…

    For decades, one on my major features was that as the I.T. Manager, my management didn’t have to worry about “leaks”. I didn’t have the heart to tell them that their stuff was boring as hell and my guys could read any of it, but didn’t, because it jyst was a waste of time…

    After a decade of trying to push encrypted email, I gave up. Nobody but me and the mail guys cared.

  44. Another Ian says:

    Re above post

    A banner statement over at Unofficial Allis


    Trump Is Not A Lib or Conserv, He’s a “Pragmatist.” (someone who is practical and focused on reaching a goal. Has a straightforward, matter-of-fact approach and doesn’t let emotion distract him or her

  45. philjourdan says:

    @EM – One agency I worked at had policies about responding to unsolicited emails. I had the misfortune of trying to dissect the “I Love You” virus, which was actually quite harmless, but took advantage of the Windows “Scrap” file vulnerability. Needless to say, I did infect the agency. Once I realized it, I ran downstairs and shut the email server down hard.

    But in the 20 seconds it took me to run downstairs, several folks responded to that email. My Boss (a fantastic lady) backed me on this and filleted the responders on proper email behavior!

    I really was trying to dissect the email to see how it worked. I learned the hard way. Scrap files run regardless of how you try to “edit” them

  46. E.M.Smith says:

    @Phil:

    You needed an isolated network. I have a lab network, isolating my office from general house stuff, then a DMZ guest network off the house net for TVs and such, AND a stand alone hub for when I want a quaratined box… just for my one house.

    At work once, we had 16 “partner networks” each firewalled from the rest, a private corp net, a couple of internal segments with protection (management suite, engineering, server farm), and 2 DMZs. Too many places lump things all together.

  47. jim2 says:

    Another Ian – That Knight’s Code story is awesome and side-splittingly funny!!

  48. vcmathjm says:

    Very interesting lecture “Covid 19 : A Clinical Update” by Paul Marik of the Math+ treatment program. Packed with information and treatment updates.

  49. vcmathjm says:

    Not meaning to clutter the thread but there is some interesting ivermectin discussion and links on the “Covid 19 : A Clinical Update” link up-thread
    Published 9/20 Study on how ivermectin works

    Quantitative proteomics reveals a broad‐spectrum antiviral property of ivermectin, benefiting for COVID‐19 treatment

    another recent paper I have not seen here

    Ivermectin as a Broad-Spectrum Host-Directed Antiviral: The Real Deal?

  50. Another Ian says:

    “For those confused whether to stand or kneel during the American national anthem, conservative barbie has a simple fix….

    https://twitter.com/republicanbarbi/status/1318390224389607428

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/10/20/october-19-2020-reader-tips-2/#comment-1365883

  51. YMMV says:

    Wow! That’s good. Ivermectin, Vit-C, Vit-D good. Sell Remdesivir stocks.
    most infectious before you know you are sick. Treat early while the virus is still replicating. By the time you get tested, that part is over. Then the treatment needs to change, to fix the immune system damages. Steroids. But watch the whole thing.

  52. YMMV says:

    to be clear, that’s referring to Paul Marik’s talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhL2FPcBHHQ

  53. Another Ian says:

    E.M.

    FYI – might find out in there if you could get to see it

    https://www.beefcentral.com/production/outback-ringer-premieres-tonight/

  54. Another Ian says:

    “NY Post on CNN’s owner-operator”

    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/10/ny-post-on-cnns-owner-operator.html

    Does that make CNN a “stick channel”?

  55. Another Ian says:

    And the comments there!!!

  56. cdquarles says:

    Does this sound like a Tom Clancy novel to you: https://uncoverdc.com/2020/10/21/patrick-byrne-the-story-behind-the-clinton-bribe/? Dang, sometimes reality *is* stranger than fiction ;p.

  57. E.M.Smith says:

    @CDQuarles:

    That is an astounding story. I don’t know if I hope it is fiction, so I can retain some positivity about government, or if I hope it is true, so something gets done about it.

    I feel sorry for Butina bring caught up in it all…
    I like the idea of a pissed off Hillary being blackmailed… by Obama no less…
    I really like how Trump upset their grand plan… and…
    I wonder what they are doing now, this time.

  58. Another Ian says:

    “Believe It Or Not, Many Of Today’s Covid19 Measures Have A Historical Precedent”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/10/21/believe-it-or-not-many-of-todays-covid19-measures-have-a-historical-precedent/

  59. E.M.Smith says:

    @Ilanfar:

    Let the Deep State Heads roll where they may, regardless of party or position. Drown every rat…

  60. p.g.sharrow says:

    There are plenty of Republican Deep Staters who are dirty, Now they will have the opportunity to resign or hang with the rest of the Clinton Crime Syndicate that Hillary bragged about. The Bidens are just one branch of it.

  61. philjourdan says:

    I do not buy the Mnuchin story. For one simple reason – even with no evidence, fake news would be screaming it to the rafters. But they are not.

  62. E.M.Smith says:

    Well, I’ve finally mostly recovered from the loss of the 8 TB Seagate disk.

    I still only have one copy of the major temperature data archive (on the LVM disk array), but I also have some copies of most parts of it on scattered other backups in an unorganized form (more on that below).

    I’ve also moved about 8 TB of “stuff” off the other two 8 TB Seagate drives of similar make and vintage, and the other ~4 TB is now duplicated in both of them (so about 4 TB of each disk is used, with each disk being mostly a copy of the other one.)

    At this point, I can take a breath. The last “duplicate Backups from Disk A onto Disk B just completed after an 11+ hour run.

    Ahead of me is to prune all this pack-rat collection. At this time I doubt I need backup copies of the Rasberry Pi SD cards from 3 or 4 years back… But duplicating the backup set was one command and overnight patience. Sorting through it and deciding things is more complicated and slower.

    I also need to sort through my accumulated data grabs and scrapes and assemble 2 complete and clean copies and then purge the other dozen odd bits and chunks from “whenever” and “wherever” too. I most likely have 7 or 8 copies of GHCN v2, for example. Between different grabs at different times on different machines AND their various backup copies.

    It won’t be exciting and it won’t make for very interesting postings, but perhaps along the way I can find a way to make it useful. Perhaps load the data into a clean simple SQL database aimed at general purpose uses (i.e. not optimized for a data flow to graph comparison of versions…)

    For now, as first step, I’m going to put my desktop back together (it presently has 35 TB of misc. disks scattered all over it and 3 SBCs with chips for 5 OS types… Time for a bit of tidy up and polish ;-) Then I’ll start working on rationalizing the now somewhat scattered data (some got spread over 1/2 dozen small disks wherever it would fit…)

    In Summary:

    The recovery is done and I think I’ve got nearly no data loss.
    The “belt and suspenders” phase is done and the questionable disks are only holding things of low value, working & scratch spaces, or things entirely duplicated elsewhere.
    I can take a break from shovelling TB of data around.
    I can have a nice cuppa tea while doing “tidy and neaten” ;-)

  63. Another Ian says:

    “If we paint all our cities white, will we get more snow?”

    http://joannenova.com.au/2020/10/if-we-paint-all-our-cities-white-will-we-get-more-snow/

  64. ossqss says:

    @EM, get some SSD or NVMe drives and a cheap USB3 case, and be done with spinning drives. Decent ones will last much longer.

    You just reminded us why we don’t want spinning drives in anything. Just sayin, do a search on longevity and long term storage.

  65. llanfar says:

    @philjourdan A deep state plant would be exactly the kind of person fake news would actively suppress stories about.

    Not sure I believe it either. But as a Goldman Sachs alum, I never trusted him.

  66. E.M.Smith says:

    @OSSQSS:

    It is rarely the mechanical spinning part that dies. For decades I’ve recovered the data from “dead” drives at work by swapping the electronics board with a similar drive.

    SSDs die too. They have a limited number of R/W cycles then they croak. I inherited the Spousal Macbook when the SSD died for just that reason. (Ran it from a uSD boot device for a few years that way then the PSU died…). Lately, SSD life has been improved a lot and extended, but I’ve not seen any information on relative probable life span of current crop SSD vs current crop spinning disk.

    Also, FWIW, I’m still using disks that are 30 years old in some of my gear. Sure, only booted up every few years, but… Then I’ve got USB drives in use that have seen daily use for 5? years or more.

    Also bear in mind that the failed drive is “almost new”. Brought it home, moved temperature data onto it. Then MAYBE plugged it in 3 or 4 times in the few months I’ve had it sitting on the desk. So this failure is in the “infant mortality” category. Either a part was trash to begin with or something went out of spec and fried it.

    It DOES still spin, and without undue noise, so it’s not the drive itself that failed. The lack of “power on” light despite power clearly being there plus the clear sounds of start up head seeks and some other bits I think is clearly diagnostic of the control electronics having popped. My best guess is that it was likely a faulty electrolytic capacitor in the power conditioning for the electronics that had a punch-through. They are usually the most error prone parts (being an electro-chemical device similar to batteries in some ways).

    So basically what I’m saying is that while SSDs are great, and I’m quite willing to run them, being electronic laden devices they will be prone to the same kinds of electronics failure as took out this disk drive. Plus, my low utilization pattern means the mechanical parts of my home disks have never had a failure. Most of my disks, especially the bigger archival ones, are left powered off and unplugged about 99% of the time. (I do cycle them at least once a year to assure lubrication stays distributed and that electrolytic capacitors get a ‘reforming’ charge on them so they don’t self-disassemble)

    My “only plug in and power up when needed” was very helpful when a big overvolts was sent down the power line due to a high voltage cross bar dropping onto the low voltage house delivery lines – frying my internet router and my wifi router… Literally. I looked inside and there were scorched traces on the board. It did form a conductive path from power at the wall cord inside the box to antenna coupler to very nearby aluminum window frame / stucco chicken wire / earth and save everything else in the house, so worth it I guess… But I was VERY happy no disks were plugged in at the time.

  67. ossqss says:

    @EM, I hear ya, but the solid state tech keeps getting better with more redundancy across the board. Some now incorporate built in bad block management (via reserve capacity) and tools to help with health. I happened to read this blip today as I was reviewing the newer PCIe 4.0 versions of the NVMe drives.

    https://www.compuram.de/blog/en/the-life-span-of-a-ssd-how-long-does-it-last-and-what-can-be-done-to-take-care/

    On PCIe 4.0 supplimental. Amazing speeds.

    https://www.pcworld.com/article/3400176/pcie-40-everything-you-need-to-know-specs-compatibility.html

  68. philjourdan says:

    @EM – Re: Spinning disks dying. Get Gibson Spinrite. Originally it was used to realign the sectors and heads on the old RLL/MFM drives. But in the IDE (and later) drives it has become a data recovery tool. My kids HD died several years ago (when they actually were kids), and I was able to recover 95% of all the files from the drive with it (it was the circuit board as well).

  69. Compu Gator says:

    This post is a test of Unicode‘s newfangled flag-generation schemes, which use extension of emoji-content interfaces [×]. Some flags are claimed, with unknown authority, not to be displayed on Microsoft systems (back to not playing nicely with standards, M.S.?):

    Using ISO 3166-1 ‘alpha-2’ set of ‘country codes’ encoded via UCS ‘REGIONAL INDICATOR SYMBOL LETTER’s ‘A’–‘Z’ (🇦–🇿 = U+1F1E6–1F1FF) in the ‘Enclosed Alphanumeric Supplement’ [*], e.g.:

    (🇬🇧)• 🇬🇧 (🇬🇧 = U+1F1EC U+1F1E7) United Kingdom d.b.a. Great Britain (“GB”).

    • 🇩🇪 (🇩🇪 = U+1F1E9 U+1F1EA) Germany d.b.a. Deutschland (“DE”).

    • 🇻🇦 (🇻🇦) Vatican City-State (“VA”).

    • For Chiefio, I’ll add that Australia follows this scheme, as “AU” (Austria is “AT”), but it’s already taken up too much time today for me to make an example for that one, too.

    But there’s more, using a com-pllletely different coding scheme [**], e.g.:

    • 🏴 󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 (🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 = U+1F3F4 U+E0067 U+E0062 U+E0073 U+E0063 U+E0074U+E007F) Scotland (coded as a mere ‘region’ of G.B.: “gbsct” instead of the plausible “GB-SCT”, where flag-trigger char. is ‘WAVING BLACK FLAG’, and terminator is ‘CANCEL TAG’).

    • 🏴󠁤󠁥󠁢󠁹󠁿 (🏴󠁤󠁥󠁢󠁹󠁿 = U+1F3F4 U+E0064 U+E0065 U+E0062 U+E0079 U+E007F) Bavaria (the only historical German stem duchy currently defined, coded as a ‘region’ of Germany [†]: “deby” instead of the plausible “DE-BY”, for its native name Bayer; same trigger & terminator chars., as for all others using this scheme).

    • For Chiefio, I’ll add that Australian provinces follow this scheme, so, e.g., Victoria is defined as “auvic”, but it’s probably no more or less likely to be implemented than States of the U.S.A.

    Writing from a perspective that might be disparaged overseas as “United-Statesian”,  I’ll add that each of the states and territories are included using the ‘region’ (i.e., “black flag”) encodings [**], but they’re typically not implemented.

    ——–
    Note  ×: “NoScript” balked on behalf of wattsupwiththat.wpcomstaging.com/test/, then the site itself seems to have rejected it, altho’ its automation might just have been frightened by the abundance of HTML char.-encodings. Maybe it’s only in the moderation queue over there. Hey-ell, the need for attention to meticulous detail required a lot of time & effort for this textually short posting!

    Note  *: “Regional indicator symbol (Redirected from Emoji flag sequence)”: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoji_flag_sequence.

    Note **: “Tags (Unicode block)”: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tags_(Unicode_block).

    Note  †: Current international definitions of ‘regions’ seem to interpret the concept as modern civil divisions, which short-changes linguistic/ethnic identity, e.g., in Germany, they seem to omit even the historic stem-duchies Franconia, Lotharingia (i.e., Lorraine (🐸)), Saxony, and Swabia. “Stem duchy [….] (German: Stammesherzogtum, from Stamm, meaning ‘tribe’)”, and Herzog, conventionally translated as “duke”: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stem_duchy.

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