Trip Report – Florida To Home

Leaving Florida was another thing. After the drive in, and the D.C. run, I was fairly worn out. So took a day or two to get recharged. One of which was spent helping move some of Florida Friend’s boxes into storage. Doh!

I was watching the weather, and it just didn’t want to give me a break. One big storm went through, but a bit “high”, mostly whacking the I-40 route, but still a lot of wet on I-10 and many rivers showing as high. Then right behind it, another big storm was predicted to dump snow all over the central States (and it did) with rain along my route.

I left expecting to spend a night in Louisiana under rain. Because of that, I figured I could leave a bit late since I’d hit a night stop anyway. So I didn’t head out until after 2 P.M. That was likely not ideal.

Nothing much happened all the way to Louisiana. Which surprised me. I’d expected a rain band of a couple of hours and me in a rest stop. OK, let’s press on to the rain, then park… Well, that ended up with me in somewhere just outside of San Antonio. I took a very short nap in the parking lot of a small Subway Sandwich shop. For unknown reasons, at about 10 minutes in, I sat up. There, in front of me, was a local police car trying to figure out what I was up to. As he was in a different parking lot, he had to cruise around to the end to enter this one. As he arrived, I was out of my car to approach him (being very open and visible.) His window down, he said fairly loudly “You either need to put a mask on or stay 6 feet back!”. So I stepped back one step to about 9 feet… and asked “Any idea what the snow is like past San Antonio?”. Which I really wanted to know, but was also a good opener. He was clearly unaware of anything outside of Podunk Texas, and said so. Asked were I was coming from, I answered “Florida”. Where am I going? California. He moved on. As did I.

Being rather awake, I drove on to San Antonio. From just before Podunk to San Antonio had been sporadic rains of medium intensity. In one place, I’d made the lucky decision to get onto the “Frontage Road” that runs parallel to every freeway in Texas. Their idea of an ‘on ramp’ is about 40 feet of angled tarmac from the frontage road into the freeway and a firm foot on the gas pedal. Similarly, exit is via a rapid shot down a similar scrap of asphalt with a heavy foot on the brake. IF you are lucky, there’s a ‘Yield’ sign for folks on the frontage road… 90 to 40 MPH in less than 50 feet… or so it seems.

I got on it due to the freeway having some deep wet patches and this particular car (190E) liking to hydroplane at over 70 MPH while the speed limit was 80 MPH and Texans are fond of 90+ regardless… So figured I take a short stretch at 60 MPH or so. About 2 miles down, the freeway came to an abrupt halt for about another 10 miles? maybe more. Seems someone discovered cars make bad boats at speed.

So a long ways down, I did the “Dart to the Left, press the pedal down ti-eye-eye-iii-iiight to the floor” and was back on the freeway. But with almost no traffic, I could do whatever speed I liked.

Approaching San Antonio, another Buc’ees (Mascot is a beaver face) had a nice fillup and another pulled pork sandwich. It was COLD. But I decided a nap in the far end of their parking area would be OK. I woke up a few unknown hours later to bits of ice about the size of large salt in drips of water landing on the windshield. Hmmm… Don’t know what to call it. Melting snow? Now this was further south and lower elevation than I’d expected. Decided going further north and more up slope back to the ice sheet land was not a good idea. So I crossed San Antonio on the combined I-10 / Hwy 90 and just held to 90 on the other side (where I-10 cuts north west and up slope). In the middle of this, the slush snow turned to large floating flakes for about 20 miles… I had chains in the car, just in case, but was not fond of the idea of fitting chains in a stiff cold wind on the freeway. But the snow was not building up on the road. Only a very thin layer was surviving.

The Very Good News is that leaving San Antonio on Hwy 90, about 5 miles out of town, it started drying up and warming. By about 20 out, the road was clear and dry, and the sky was only slightly overcast. From that point to Del Rio, was a dream drive. Fun little stereotypical country western towns. One with a Bank building about 2000 square feet with BANK in raised bricks on the front. (Need to let the guys on horseback know where to rob… ;-) Just looked like a movie set.

By the time I got to Del Rio, it was dark. Driving from there on up Hwy 90 in the dark was sometimes a challenge. High speeds, mountain roads in places, poor reflector markings, bright headlights in the occasional oncoming traffic. Still, MUCH better than snow, ice sheets, and not moving.

Eventually there’s a turn back to I-10 at Fort Stockton. Just outside of there, I took another turn at sleeping off a rural off ramp middle of nowhere. Temperature was about 23 F. AFTER about a 14 mile “adventure” following the frontage road looking for a way back on going the right direction. Perhaps more on that if a mapping program can let me recreate the route / issue. Let’s just say that leaving the Fort Stockton Walmart is EASY going East, and a lot harder if you follow the first I-10 west sign. Better would be go East then make the first U turn (that I’d done on the inbound trip so know it works well…)

In any case, after a nice long nap, it was back to El Paso, another fill-up, another break in New Mexico, and then as the day began, crossing Arizona headed for the last run home.

I was looking at maps, and figuring times. This is the second place where leaving late bit me. I was NOT going to be off the road before the curfew time hit. I decided that saving a $1 or 2 on gas was less important than time, so stayed on I-10 into California, then took the California Hwy 95 up to I-40. It is straighter and less hilly. It is a very interesting drive. Lots of rolling dips and flash flood outfall paving on the sides of the dips. The mountains drain into the Colorado River to your right. Don’t do that road in the rain. For me, it was sunny and dry. Having done it, I’m not sure it is any faster than the Arizona side. There are a lot of little RV / mobile home / resort areas along the river and it looks like water sports are a big deal.

At I-40, I was getting more tired, and it was getting darker. I’ll skip the details, but by the time I reached I-5 I was seriously having wakefulness issues. It looked like about 2 AM earliest to get home. After fighting it for a while, I did about an hour stop and nap, then tanked up on 22 oz of Truck Stop Special Coffee for the final push. That did the trick and I was wide awake for the curvy winding hair raising Hwy 152 over the coastal mountains onto the Hwy 101 run into San Jose / Santa Clara.

What was interesting about the I-5 part, and all of the after 10 PM really, was that there were a LOT of big trucks, and a few cars. But I saw exactly ZERO police of any kind. Normally you see them working those chunks of road then. Also of note was that though there were much fewer cars, there were a significant number. Lots of folks are either exempt from the curfew, or just don’t care.

Taking my offramp to home, I had about 2 miles of major boulevard. We’re talking 3 lanes each way and lots of car dealers and such. Never is it empty. At 2:30 AM there was NOBODY AT ALL visible on it. Even into my neighborhood, not a car. Like something out of a Sci Fi Movie. THE LAST CAR ON EARTH!!!!

I saw zero moving cars from the freeway all the way home. Where I parked it, and immediately took a shower and went to bed. Unloading could wait for the next day…

After about 12 hours of solid sleeping, I did the unpack, sort put away, etc. stuff. Then the next couple of days slowly caught up on the total sleep inventory ;-) So now you know why I’ve been slow about posting, and servicing moderation queues and such. There’s also a couple of weeks of stacked up “Honey Doos” to work off ;-)

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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31 Responses to Trip Report – Florida To Home

  1. Nancy & John Hultquist says:

    That’s one hellofa drive.
    I’ve never driven cross country alone.
    Several times with 2, alternating driving and sleeping.
    Well done!.

  2. E.M.Smith says:

    @H&J H:

    I’ve done it so many times…thanks to a home in California and several contracts in Florida… Finally got good at it. Figured out that 5 or more very slow days just got ever more miserable toward the end. Found out that a 41 to 43 drive hours event was best handled with “Just DRIVE” and nap as needed. I can do 2 all nighters with a nap between them, so why not?

    At 3.5 days, it actually isn’t too bad. Though in fact I end up arriving with “jet lag” as I don’t adjust to the time changes. A bit weird that ;-)

    It does take “buns of steel” ;-)

    Best time was 56 hours end to end, but 60 is a bit easier.

  3. H.R. says:

    @E.M. – In my dotage, I can’t sleep more than about 5 hours. 4 to 5 is normal. 6 hours is a marvel. 7 or 8 hours and my wife wonders what is wrong with me; very concerned.

    OTOH, I always have wondered why people sleep more that 5 or 6 hours. We only have so many years and there’s not much point wasting them sleeping. At least, that’s my POV.

    In H.S., I ran distances and my practices were about 20 miles per day. My resting heart rate was around 30 plus OR (often) minus beats per minute. (I once couldn’t find my pulse because my heart rate was so low. Scared the snot outta me. I thought I was dead and didn’t know it. Kind of alarming then, but funny now.)

    Anyhow, I went from a H.S. average of 3 refreshing hours of sleep per night to 4 hours per night in my mid-years, and about 5 or 5-1/2 hours nowadays.

    Funny story – my next door neighbor for several years was a retired physician who was in demand an on call call all his life and slept about 3 hours per day. I’d get up at about 4 in the morning to read the Wall Street Journal (wave to the guy who delivered it as no one else was awake) and my neighbor’s light was on as he was reading or puttering about in his home office. I thought I didn’t sleep much. That guy was seemingly always awake.

    I am surprised you can sleep for 12 hours. I’ve only done that when I’ve had the Swine flu or OD’d on hemlock or something.

  4. H.R. says:

    @E.M. I’ve pulled way too many 36 hour days with 6 hours of sleep going into the next 12 to 14-hour day. No naps. Not driving so pretty much safe. No days off ’til next month.

    You are correct, sir. Drive until you are starting to doze off… lids droop…. jerk awake… lids droop… jerk awake.. and so you start to feel – know! – you are unsafe. Then be smart and nap.

    P.S. All I did after I retired was nap and fish for two years. Still couldn’t sleep for more than a few hours at a time though, which worked out well for night catfishing. 😜

  5. E.M.Smith says:


    In high school I did a series of tests on just how much sleep I needed. The end point was that I could go with zero for up to about 36 to 42 (now 48 with ample coffee ;-) but then needed increasing amounts.

    At 3 hours a night, I could go several nights, then needed more.

    At 4 per night, I could go almost forever. But some weekends would take naps.

    At 5 to 6, forever was relatively easy. Extreme activity could ask for more repair time.

    Then I worked out that I eventually had to make up the deficit from an average of about 5 per night, one way or another.

    So a 12 hour night is filling up about 7 hours of deficit. 3 nights in a row of about 3 total in naps, is a 6 hour deficit… So after that kind of run, a big refill is just the thing.

    I call it being a “Sleep Camel” and filling up my “Sleep Hump”. I can also sleep a bit extra in advance and then go longer with less… As long as the average holds up…

    FWIW, my general experience when fully slept up, is that 8 hours I start to get a ‘sleep hangover’. Just groggy after waking.

    WOOooo… Just had a minor quake. About a 4 as felt. I need to go find out how big and how far away, along with is this a preshock prep…

  6. H.R. says:

    Yaaaaay! I hit [Post Comment]…. BOOM! there it is

    The WiFi hotspot roolz.

    The RV park’s WiFi droolz.

  7. E.M.Smith says:

    4km SE of Aromas, CA
    2021-01-17 04:01:27 (UTC),-127.74902&extent=41.07935,-105.07324

    I often do not feel quakes in a 4.x range, but felt this one. Spouse didn’t. Pretty good guess though! 4 instead of 4.2 (but it is also some 20 to 30 miles down the fault…)

    Hopefully not a pre-quake / pre-shock for a bigger one….

  8. E.M.Smith says:


    When in the park in Florida, their WiFi was crap. Seemed like a few hundred spaces sharing one low speed ADSL line (one house worth of not quite enough speed…).

    My personal hot spot was all just for me and much faster.

    My personal pattern is to use a big cup of hot coffee held over my lap. You WILL NOT sleep while that risk is in place. When it is empty, you are pretty wired on caffeine Then, about the time it is wearing off, you really need a bathroom stop and just can’t nod off until you deal with it. When you buy another big one at the truck stop ;-)

    IF, at any time, you find yourself having trouble keeping the eyes open and focused and feel sleepy, hit the first rest stop, off ramp, or similar and take a nap. Even just fully relaxing and breathing fast with eyes shut clears a lot of the built up metabolites and lets you go a few more miles to a decent rest stop..

  9. H.R. says:

    @E.M. – I’ve always gone straight to the deep, required Delta (?) sleep almost immediately since I was a kid. Everyone needs about two hours of that per night or you eventually die.

    As a consequence, I don’t remember dreams. There are only a few dreams I’ve had in my entire life that I remember. Close eyes… bzoop!… deep sleep… bzoop! Wakey-wakey.

    One of the few dreams I remember (hang with me): Think Blues Brothers church scene, only more crowded and fevered. Organ playing… stops for when someone must, MUST testify or prophesy. Dancing, trancing, praising, hands uplifted and shaking… the whole nine yards.

    After a bit of this, I speak up. “My tricycle!” Some hushed, puzzled murmurs and the organ ‘bumps’ but the room is still buzzing with a lowered level of Holy Roller action.

    “I said, MY Tricycle!”

    More and louder murmurs. All dancing, praise hands, and singing slows w-a-a-y down nearly, but not quite, to a halt. Lot’s of puzzled buzzing and the organ is playing chords at an idle.

    One of the Elders says, “Tell it brother. Prophesy! Prophesy!”

    Me; “I said MY TRICYCLE!!”

    Elders and Deacons, very puzzled: “Say it, Brother! What? Tell us! Prophesy!”

    Me, everything very hushed now: “I say my tricycle…”

    Congregation: “Yes? YES?!?”

    Me: “I say… MY TRICYCLE…”

    Congregation: “Yes? YES?!? Say it brother! SAY IT!!”

    Me: “I say… I say… (every breath in the church held) MY TRICYCLE WON”T GO SO FAST WITH ONLY TWO WHEELS!”

    CHAOS ensues in the church and I woke myself up laughing HARD!

    That’s the one dream I remember best and almost the only one I remember. There are one or two others, but I need a happenstance trigger related to the other dreams to call them to mind.

    No kidding… straight to Delta… zzzzzzzzzz… and back out, and virtually no memory of my dreams, though I do know they are in color. REM is hit and run with me, though I know I do get some REM sleep.

    (I still laugh, just retelling that dream. Of course it makes no sense. But it always makes me chuckle even now. You had to have been there, but wait… you can’t.)

  10. H.R. says:

    @E.M. – Are you sure you’re not dipping into deep sleep and back out on those short stops for sleep?

    It seems to me that since you feel safe to continue on your drive, you must be getting some of the good sleep.
    After a good, solid 😜 3.5 hours of sleep, I am thinking about those sleep studies that say you must eventually make up your sleep deficit. Since I get in 7 -8 hours of sleep only a couple of times per year, I’m thinking I’ll probably be making up my sleep deficit by taking a dirt nap a few years earlier than if I had slept more over all of my years.

    I have read that you must pay off your sleep debt, so perhaps I’m destined to pay it in a lump sum at the end of life.

  11. E.M.Smith says:


    What I’ve noticed is that, over time and with repeated experiences, the brain and body move more rapidly into “deep sleep” repair cycle. Your sleep becomes more efficient and focused on “just what is needed most right now”.

    I then thought “What is the limit case on that?” and tried some experiments with what I call “Twilight”. NOT fully asleep in that your consciousness is not turned off, but in a deep restful state. What I found was that I got the equivalent of a small batch of sleep in just a few minutes of ‘twilight’. Essentially, I think it lets the body do a quicky “take out the metabolic trash” maintenance cycle.

    The method is to recline and fully relax as much as possible every muscle (simulate the state of muscle block in full sleep), close your eyes, empty the mind, and breath deeply and repetitively (rather like a hypnotic induction). Then drift to a mental state of Twilight. Half dream state. Sometimes called “Lucid Dreaming” when approached from the asleep and dreaming side instead of from the awake side. Continue the breathing.

    I found that about 5 to 10 minutes of this would ‘fill in’ for an hour or 2 of sleep and get me a few more hours “down the road” or through the project. More importantly, that: “I JUST CAN’T KEEP EYES OPEN!” compulsion to ‘go under’ goes away.

    I have also noticed that there’s a tendency to need to pee afterwards, as though some metabolic trash was cleaned out and dumped into the bladder. My thesis is that there’s a build-up of metabolites in the brain that eventually causes the brain to DEMAND a maintenance / trash removal cycle of sleep, but this same cycle can run in ‘twilight’ with full relaxation and deep breathing with the brain idling. Removing this stuff via the kidneys relieves the brain of it’s imperative call for “clean up on aisle sleepy” and you are good to go for another round. That’s what it feels like anyway.

    Don’t know if you would call that “sleep” or not. I think it is sort of a “semi-lucid sleeping”…

    I think this is the same process as the “cat naps” that Edison was described as using to enable him to get very little sleep per night. Just he did it every day and I only do it on marathon drives / projects.

  12. Nancy & John Hultquist says:

    Interesting about heart rates.
    First, about horses. A race horse resting has a way low rate, maybe 10 bpm. But a horse racing will have such a fast rate it is just a blur. Something in the range of 250-275.
    Second, about me. Lowest rate was 44, measured. Then as bp went up and I started on meds for that my heart rate went up. Too many variables to make suggestions; age, less caffeine, a bit of Levothyroxine. All this is complicated because I have “Rouleaux” blood. The Wikipedia entry is good enough.

  13. H.R. says:

    @Nancy & John Hultquist re heart rates: When I ran distances back in the day, just climbing 3 or 4 steps would set my heart to a high rate in anticipation of high activity. On reaching the top of a flight of stairs, the heart was going fast but would slow right back down in just a few steps of normal walking when my body noticed nothing was going to happen.

    I only noticed the phenomenon and never really thought about it until you followed up. Now I can see that my body ‘learned’ that response. I never had that happen before I started running. I know there are a lot of things we can teach our bodies. All the odd things Indian fakirs can do come to mind.

    Re Rouleaux: Hmm… never heard of that. It might be fairly common, but not a lot of people get their blood visually examined. Heck! I think all of my blood work consists of throwing it in with some reagent or other to get a positive, negative, or some reaction that gives a percentage.

  14. Scissor says:

    The bits of ice hitting your windshield sound like “sleet” to me.

  15. Tonyb says:

    So I can trace this on the map can you tell me where you started from and can you give me two or three towns on your route. Plus what was the total distance return? Thanks.

  16. E.M.Smith says:


    Path to Florida (starts at airport, but close enough to home):

    Return Path to home:

  17. Annie says:


    That was my thought when I read it. It’s just how sleet hits the windscreen. I last encountered it a few weeks ago while driving over the Black Spur; that’s between Healesville and Narbethong, to the NE of Melbourne. It had turned into snow by the top.

  18. E.M.Smith says:


    I’ve heard the name before, but I’m a native Californian so woefully deficient in experience and names for that “cold stuff from the sky” ;-)

    Sleet sounds about right I guess.

  19. Tonyb says:

    Thanks for the route map, that was a huge journey! A real expression of your commitment. Hope it all works out in the US. Our elite were determined to try to thwart brexit and I guess the swamp is deeper than Trump realised

    Sleet? Thought you might enjoy this by Sara coleridge, died 1850. the gardening year shows remarkable similarity to what we can expect in England 170 years later. Also considerable similarity with a similar theme by Francis bacon 300 years previously.

    January brings the snow,
    Makes our feet and fingers glow.

    February brings the rain,
    Thaws the frozen lake again.

    March brings breezes, loud and shrill,
    To stir the dancing daffodil.

    April brings the primrose sweet,
    Scatters daisies at our feet.

    May brings flocks of pretty lambs
    Skipping by their fleecy dams.

    June brings tulips, lilies, roses,
    Fills the children’s hands with posies.

    Hot July brings cooling showers,
    Apricots, and gillyflowers.

    August brings the sheaves of corn,
    Then the harvest home is borne.

    Warm September brings the fruit;
    Sportsmen then begin to shoot.

    Fresh October brings the pheasant;
    Then to gather nuts is pleasant.

    Dull November brings the blast;
    Then the leaves are whirling fast.

    Chill December brings the sleet,
    Blazing fire, and Christmas treat.

  20. philjourdan says:

    @HR – I am the same. I will fall asleep and get 3 hours of deep rem sleep and then the rest of the night is just dozing, if that. Since I gave up coffee, I can do 38 hours with only 3 cups of coffee to keep me awake! Last time I did that was 2 years ago. We were moving a DC.

  21. another ian says:


    Then there is the Flanders and Swan version which ends

    “Freezing cold December then
    Bloody January again” IIRC

  22. another ian says:

    An aside on travelAin’t modern technology wonderful?

    “Cattle grid confuses modern car sensors and sends UK drivers into a spin”

  23. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    While having the car practice partial pirouettes on ice and slush covered bridges in Texas (front rotating toward the left, my correcting back, almost starting to get moving toward straight again, exit bridge to dry pavement and rapidly accelerate the other way in rotation…) I got to wondering just how well an automated system would handle any of that. Touch the brakes, you are just asking for a hard spin. Rapidly move the steering, ditto. DON’T move the steering just enough to neutralize the incipient spin (but NO further or you spin on exit…) and you spin the other direction “shortly”…

    The correct answer in near zero traction with the potential for rapid onset of traction if you dig in a wheel or stop wheel spin is to do very little, but just enough.

    I was very glad to NOT have a computer “helping” me…

    I *think* the tendency to left drift of the front end on bridge entry is due to the slight left pressure on the steering due to road round off for drainage (where the bridge is not humped, but flat and tilted) so there is a disconnect between the two roadway surfaces.

    In any case, it was ‘dicey’ for a 50 year experienced driver with “time in snow” skiing.

    I’d really like to know how the automated systems do on glare ice and snow over ice…

  24. gallopingcamel says:

    Darn it! You went by my door 24 hours ago. What a missed opportunity.

  25. E.M.Smith says:

    I was on a very tight schedule to get home. Still was a few hours late.

    Had I stopped, I’d have been at least a day late, probably 2, and been no good company… So I don’t think much of an opportunity was missed. When I’m being more sedate, that’s an opportunity ;-)

  26. E.M.Smith says:

    Oh, and TonyB:

    Just for completion, there was also the 2 days of one running up to the Capitol Building and the other running back to Orlando. So add this run x 2 to your total distance / map. Yeah, it was all a bit much…

  27. cdquarles says:

    In other news, Buc’ees is opening on/near I20 on the eastern edge of Birmingham (Leeds) soon. See here: As noted, there is one on I10 east of Mobile.

  28. cdquarles says:

    There is a reason why the old South along the Gulf of Mexico closes roads when the very rare ice presents itself. Folk here do *not* know how to drive in it or have chains, and much of the road is hilly. Few get to practice more than a few times in a lifetime of driving (me, for instance; and it has been a good 15 or more years since the last time I had to drive in ice). Once sanded, it isn’t as bad; and the sand helps melt the ice in the sunny spots (noon sun is nearing 40 degrees above the horizon elevation at my latitude). I can see them ‘fighting’ the computer, akin to novice pilots fighting the yoke.

  29. gallopingcamel says:

    “I was on a very tight schedule to get home. Still was a few hours late.”
    I used to resemble that but I retired for the third time in 2017 at the age of 80.

    Ines & I are in the process for relocating. We are still on I-40 in North Carolina but about nine miles further west.

    We moved because my wife suffered a serious fall that required three operations and five days in hospital. This convinced us that we can’t handle stairs any more so our new (500 square feet smaller) home is a “Ranch” (aka one storey).

    While the state of North Carolina is “Locked Down” it is a pretty half hearted affair. We wear masks in public places but nobody is being harassed if they forget. The restaurants are operating at reduced capacity but none of the ones I frequent have closed down.

    I track the progress of COVID-19 and predict that it will end in the first quarter of 2021 (before March 31). While the official number of cases is 24,809,841, the real number of cases is much higher since most of the people infected are asymptomatic or suffer such mild symptoms that they don’t seek medical help.

    Suppose the Real/Official ratio is 10:1. That would mean that the USA 77% of US citizens (248 millions) have been infected. Once more than 75% of the population has been infected, “Herd Immunity” kicks in, causing infection rates to fall sharply.

    Until last week, infection rates were still rising which implies that the Real/Official case rate is less than ten.

    If the Real/Official case rate is 8:1 “Herd Immunity” would kick it this week. Since infection rates have plummeted over the last few days we may be witnessing the onset of Herd Immunity but I won’t declare V-COVID-Day unless cases nation wide fall to less than 5,000 per day by January 29.

  30. E.M.Smith says:


    I’m probably in that ‘already exposed’ group. About 6? 8? months ago,I had onset of some minor snivvles / scratchy throat thing. I thought there was a tiny bit of shift of sense of taste. Hit it with Ivermectin (was already doing lots of Vit-D, plus zink, selenium, etc.) and inside 2 days it was all gone.

    Don’t know if my recent “no problems” run coast to coast was due to prophylactic ivermectin,& vitamins or prior immunity.

    As States are mostly isolated, you can likely get an early read from the “worst” States. Watch for somewhere like NYC or L.A. to “turn the corner” first. Or maybe South Dakota since they never did any ‘lock down’ and everyone ought to have been rapidly exposed in the exponential phase…

  31. gallopingcamel says:

    Pandemics burn out with little or no warning. While infection rates grow exponentially they also decay exponentially once “Herd Immunity” kicks in.

    After the pandemic has vanished in most jurisdictions it can still pop up in communities that somehow escaped high rates of infection during the first (April), second (July) or third waves (ongoing).

    The pandemic will likely die out in the most populous regions before the end of March. After that any new “hot spots” that pop up won’t be comparable in magnitude to the earlier waves.

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