A Tale Of 2 Strategies – Lockdown vs Open

To my eye, it looks like all a prolonged “lockdown” of an economy, with all the attendant economic destruction, managed to do was move the “hump” of infections further out in time. Instead of “one and done” we got 2 or three “humps” with long periods of misery in between. Take a look at these graphs and see if you can spot who has done “lockdown” vs who did not (or just could not).

Perhaps you can even spot when a particular location decided to ease restrictions and see if the general area under any given curve looks similar? I’d assert that places like Australia, still doing strong isolation, must either stay that way or go for massive vaccination programs, while those who have ‘past the hump’ and are ‘tailing off’ are likely already near herd immunity.

Poster Child for “No way to lock down or vaccinate”, India:

India Daily New Covid 25 Feb 2021

India Daily New Covid 25 Feb 2021

Or “Why Bother?” South Dakota:

South Dakota Daily New Covid 25 Feb 2021

South Dakota Daily New Covid 25 Feb 2021

Poster Child for “Lordy We MUST lock down”: U.K.:

U.K. Daily New Covid 25 Feb 2021

U.K. Daily New Covid 25 Feb 2021

Or “Lockdown R Us” California:

California Daily New Covid 25 Feb 2021

California Daily New Covid 25 Feb 2021

Can you pick “lock down” (and maybe a bit of when) vs. “not” out of these? Or maybe when their people just said “Screw it, I want my life back” vs “still under lockdown”:

Florida Daily New Covid 25 Feb 2021

Florida Daily New Covid 25 Feb 2021

France Daily New Covid 25 Feb 2021

France Daily New Covid 25 Feb 2021

Italy Daily New Covid 25 Feb 2021

Italy Daily New Covid 25 Feb 2021

Michigan Daily New Covid 25 Feb 2021

Michigan Daily New Covid 25 Feb 2021

Oman Daily New Covid 25 Feb 2021

Oman Daily New Covid 25 Feb 2021

New Mexico Daily New Cases 25 Feb 2021

New Mexico Daily New Cases 25 Feb 2021

New York Daily New Cases 25 Feb 2021

New York Daily New Cases 25 Feb 2021

Spain Daily New Covid 25 Feb 2019

Spain Daily New Covid 25 Feb 2019

West Virginia Daily New Cases 25 Feb 2021

West Virginia Daily New Cases 25 Feb 2021

The interesting thing to me is just how much the USA and several other places look like this thing is “on the way out”. Well BEFORE any significant percentage of the population has been vaccinated and after “restrictions” have largely been removed or just ignored.

Honorable Mention to Australia. As an island, they were able to effectively shut themselves off from the rest of the world, and extirpate the virus in most areas. But now the question is “What happens if they rejoin the world?”. IMHO, they will either take their big lump then (which, it looks to me, is a small part of the population, about 500,000 / 350,000,000 = 0.14% if the USA data are good, or wait until they have vaccinated EVERYONE (and find out what the death and debility rate for the vaccines might be…)

Australia Daily New Cases 25 Feb 2021

Australia Daily New Cases 25 Feb 2021

Graphs from Worldometers:


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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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21 Responses to A Tale Of 2 Strategies – Lockdown vs Open

  1. Ossqss says:

    I am not sure how this fits, but it does :-)

  2. E.M.Smith says:


    Yes, somehow it does fit ;-)

    You can take your lump early, or later after working hard and being miserable.
    You can take your 0.15% deaths as Chinese Wuhan Covid or as Vaccine shock.

    Whack that mole…

  3. cdquarles says:

    Since you brought it up, indirectly: https://redstate.com/michael_thau/2021/02/25/about-that-mysterious-decline-in-flu-cases-n332538.

    I find this plausible. First, PCR tests, as noted, do *not* detect pathogens. All of the PCR tests we are running are mostly SARS-CoV, so I can definitely see them getting first dibs before the influenza ones get done (more money in it, likely, just for the volume of them if nothing else). I am intrigued by that small study comparing tests over time. Discount the problems with each kind of test for now or the use of p-values. See what the test time window does. (And likely follows viral shedding, which begins before you feel sick, if you feel sick; and would peak rather early anyway, before the immune system gets going fully.)

    I ran across a report discussing people doing electron microscopy on clinical samples, supposedly from people with COVID. They said they found lots of other kinds of viruses, but didn’t find much SARS-CoV. Dang, I wish I had kept the link to that one.

  4. E.M.Smith says:


    Was it this one?

    Despite evidence suggesting viral replication outside the respiratory tract, unassailable TEM evidence is still missing in tissues from COVID‐19 patients. Possible explanations include timing (too late: the virus has already been cleared by the immune system) and sensitivity (too insensitive: there are too few infected cells or too few virions, such that detection by TEM becomes very unlikely; the low viral loads found by quantitative nucleic acid amplification techniques (QNAT) in tissues other than lung would support this argument). We think that the observed extensive intracellular membrane remodelling could be a result of direct infection, but this is difficult to prove in the absence of newly formed viral particles. Ideally, TEM morphology will be backed by other in‐situ techniques in the same case.

    Another important concept to keep in mind is that viral components (RNA and proteins) are not produced in balanced amounts (as suggested in Figure 1 and Massoth et al.113). Therefore, surplus viral RNA and proteins may be encountered at the site of infection, in the circulation and at distant sites. Detection of viral RNA and proteins does not necessarily reflect the presence of intact and infectious particles. It is also conceivable that pathology in non‐respiratory organs could be the result of distant viral disease, due to transport of viral components, and not a direct result of infection. Therefore, TEM investigation is essential to verify assembled virions in SARS‐CoV‐2 infection and COVID‐19.

    In our view, the hunt for coronavirus by TEM in tissues from COVID‐19 patients beyond the upper airways and lungs is still open.

  5. philjourdan says:

    Technical point of order your Honor!

    Oz is a continent. not an island. Indeed, while many thought that New Zealand was an “island”, we now know it is just the surface part of the continent Zealandia.

    But that does not detract from your point. They still are the only country(ies) on their respective continents so can shut down all outside contact and wait it out. But eventually they have to rejoin the world.

    CHina did not lock down. I am sure they had their huge spike last spring, but went about their business. They lost the same number of people. But they gained a ton on the western world since their economy never stopped.

    Am I saying they did this on purpose? Let’s just say that if they had released the Chinese flu on the world on purpose, they could not have accomplished more than they did with this “accidental” release.

  6. philjourdan says:

    @Ossqss – sometimes the mole gets you! LOL

  7. E.M.Smith says:

    Is it not possible for a continent to also be an island? (Where North and South America are not as they connect at an isthmus… )

  8. cdquarles says:

    No, it wasn’t that one; but I find that one interesting, for I did that kind of work involving sickle cell anemia. The one I forgot to keep directly discussed finding Influenza A & B, plus some others in the samples; but did *not* find SARS-CoV virions.

  9. YMMV says:

    continent/island, planet/asteroid, breath mint/candy mint, whatever…

    Covid on the other hand is a virus/….. allergy? That’s a new one!

    There is something called MAST cell activation syndrome. Something like 17% of us have it.
    Something about MAST cells getting triggered easily (no, not snowflakes) and harming the body.
    MAST cells are the bad guys that give us allergies, asthma, anaphylactic shock, etc.

    By some coincidence (or not), something like 17% of the Covid cases become serious.
    (I have not checked that number).

    So somebody has made a conjecture that serious covid cases are MAST cell activation syndrome.
    Very interesting. So if it is true, yet another reason to make sure you take enough Vitamin D.
    The following video explains MAST cell activation syndrome.

  10. philjourdan says:

    @Your Honor. I said technical point of order. Given the 70/30 split, every continent is an island.

    I was being anal. Oz is a continent. But smaller than Greenland that is an island. It is a geographical thing.

  11. another ian says:



    “No, it wasn’t that one; but I find that one interesting, for I did that kind of work involving sickle cell anemia. The one I forgot to keep directly discussed finding Influenza A & B, plus some others in the samples; but did *not* find SARS-CoV virions.”

    Sounds like one that Snopes says is fake – but then Snopes – –

  12. John v K says:

    Australia in general had one hump. Victoria stuffed up in a big way (Quarantine policed by incompetent private mates rates rent a plods instead of offered diggers by fed govt etc) and went into lockdown a second time almost three times in fact. Most of the numbers are Victoria.
    Australia does not really have winter where most Australians live (no snow or real freeze in any capital city)and Australians tend to be out in the sun a fair bit, highest incidence skin cancer ssc in the world (I think).
    If the Vax works we probably will most have dodged most of it when we re open. So yeah most of state Premiers done pretty good (-1 drongo) and its pretty much a state issue and was policed well in the main. They been rewarded at the ballot box for it where the election test has happened.

    So yeah chief thanks for asking ;-) We is goodly and we will prbably be all right matey.


  13. Pinroot says:

    @cdquarles – Is this what you’re looking for?
    It’s a 3 minute video of a doctor saying they examined ~1500 samples under an electron microscope and found no Covid, only influenza A and B.

  14. cdquarles says:

    Yes, that is the one. Thanks, Pinroot.

  15. p.g.sharrow says:

    @Pinroot & cdquarles; I think that the most important quote from that doctor was after he examined those 1500 samples with no positive verification of Covid-19 he asked the CDC for a confirmed sample for comparison. They said that they had no samples!.

  16. Pinroot says:

    @pg – You would think that as many ‘cases’ as there have been, somebody somewhere would have isolated a sample of the virus. In that video, he also says that there are 4 papers regarding the sequencing of the virus genome, but they have only sequenced less than 100 base pairs (30-40 was the number he used, I think) whereas there are several thousand base pairs in the virus. I don’t see how anyone can develop a vaccine when so little is known about the actual virus.

  17. E.M.Smith says:

    One Hour 50 minutes, but very worth it. Starts out with a lot of ‘echo’ until they learn to mute one microphone at a time to avoid a long slow feedback loop… at about 2 minutes… Actual discussion is at about 6 minutes after introduction of Dr. Kory (of iMask+ creation).

    Most interesting points:

    Astounding effectiveness of Ivermectin as prophylactic, treatment, and cure of Long Covid symptoms.

    Discussion of Covid lung issues as NOT being due to virus, but Organizing Pneumonia ( at 7:25). The whole discussion of Organizing Pneumonia is an eye opener. Covers the very much higher recovery rate with Methylprednisolone vs Dexamethasone or Hyrdocortisone.

    This ties in with the lack of virus in many samples as the initial cause of the OP is long gone by the time a hospital visit is taking place.

    There’s a LOT more, including a humorous Q&A at the end where one person in a foreign country says Ivermectin is not available for people and can Vet. Ivermectin be used and you can just see Dr. Kory wanting to say “Ivermectin is Ivermectin and if the choice is dead or use what you can get…” but resolving to only say out loud “We don’t have safety data on the animal drug in people…” Resolving to state a truth, but keep his medical license, while knowing that in the hands of an M.D. who can compute dose and look up solvents and additives it can work too. (But takes about a 5 minute technical discussion to explain…)

    They also commiserate a bit over the Mule Stupidity of Government Medical Offices (and officials…) in their inability or unwillingness to say “If it works, use it. Ask YOUR Doctor.” The Arrogance Of Authority can not abide delegation of authority.

  18. E.M.Smith says:

    Interesting article on Ivermectin as anti-inflammatory agent:

    They point out it helps in later stage cases where viral load is supposedly on the way out or gone and it is mostly cytokine storm issues. All of which leads me to wonder if it might be generically useful for other inflammation diseases.

    Anti-Inflammatory Action of Ivermectin Surveyed in Literature Review

    By TrialSite Staff September 7, 2020

    In clinical use since 1981 as an oral and topical medicine for a range of parasitic infection, ivermectin is on WHO’s List of Essential Medications. Anecdotally, the standard dose of 9mg used once has been correlated with some instances of “rapid clinical resolution in severe hospitalized COVID-19 [cases].” Clinical studies are underway; while ivermectin is shown to inhibit SARS-CoV-2 in vitro, but this seems to require a far higher dose than the “standard.” And this casts “doubt on the utility of this agent as an antiviral drug in COVID-19 unless very markedly higher doses are used.” This latest ivermectin update is based on an editorial/literature review in Open Heart, an open-access journal, which is “an official journal of the British Cardiovascular Society.” The piece notes that viral-replication blocking would be less useful in late-COVID-19 with cytokine storms. Yet anecdotes point to success at this later stage. So, research should consider the idea that “ivermectin is acting as an anti-inflammatory in these cases.” This motivated the editorial search for “literature on ivermectin for anti-inflammatory actions.”

    Prior Research Suggests Effectiveness

    I note that the reference to “higher doses than the standard” in glass lab tests has been addressed in the Drbeen video. Those “cell in glass” tests were done using monkey kidney cells. In living humans, that changes, and lower doses were found effective.

    Zhang et al looked at ivermectin in mice in 2008. They began by challenging mice with fatal doses of the pro-inflammatory intraperitoneal lipopolysaccharide (LPS). Then they showed that ivermectin administered two hours before the LPS. The scientists showed a 50% reduction in mortality with a 4mg/kg dose. In vitro studies have also shown the medicine to block cytokine production. Extrapolation from mice to humans calculates an effective dose of 36 mg. One year later another study ivermectin was found to suppress, “activation both of NF-kappaB and the stress-activated MAP kinases JNK and p38.6” Two other reports show the drug, “exerts anti-inflammatory effects in murine models of allergic inflammation.” While conceivable that the anti-inflammatory properties of ivermectin are limited “to LPS or toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) signaling,” it may also work downstream on, “other proinflammatory signaling pathways.”

    The authors argue that it is reasonable to think that, at doses near or slightly above standard dosing, ivermectin, “may have important clinical potential for managing disorders associated with life-threatening respiratory distress and cytokine storm—such as advanced COVID-19. Ivermectin may have been ‘flying under the radar’ in this regard during four decades of clinical use.” Rajter et al reported showed a significantly lower death rate for 173 patients given ivermectin versus the 107 who were not. Gorial et al looked at mean hospital stay time in patients who did and did not get ivermectin. The first group had average hospital stays of 7.62 days versus 13.22 days for the second group. Two persons died in the control group; none died in the ivermectin group. Notably, “these apparent therapeutic benefits were seen in hospitalized patients, in whom antiviral measures are suspected to be less effective than anti-inflammatory measures targeting cytokine storm.”

    Lead Research/Investigator

    Dr. James J. DiNicolantonio

  19. The True Nolan says:

    Australia is a continent/island in exactly the same way that Pluto is a planet/dwarf-planet, which is to say that it is a subjective agreement rather than an objective fact.

  20. YMMV says:

    “The Arrogance Of Authority” — that’s a good quote!

    Sometimes, those in power have the NIH syndrome (not invented here).
    Sometimes, it’s just greed. Merck and the vaccine makers.
    Sometimes, it’s incompetence. Who? WHO, NIH, FDA, … (together with CYA)
    Sometimes, it’s politics. TDS, CCP, …
    Sometimes, it’s ignorance. Doctors who are not curious, who ask no questions, MSM, …
    Sometimes, it’s a crime against humanity. Some don’t care whether millions live or die.
    Sometimes, it’s all of the above.

    Occasionally, it’s funny-absurd. Like rejecting IVM because “it’s too good to be true”.
    Hope for a miracle, but when you get it, reject it. Nice move.

  21. E.M.Smith says:

    @Pinroot & CDQuarles:

    This looks like either the same video or a slightly longer version / cut:


    Still looking for some author names or paper references. This clip has a few more key words in it that might be useful, I think, maybe… ;-)

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