To my eye, it looks like all a prolonged “lockdown” of an economy, with all the attendant economic destruction, managed to do was move the “hump” of infections further out in time. Instead of “one and done” we got 2 or three “humps” with long periods of misery in between. Take a look at these graphs and see if you can spot who has done “lockdown” vs who did not (or just could not).
Perhaps you can even spot when a particular location decided to ease restrictions and see if the general area under any given curve looks similar? I’d assert that places like Australia, still doing strong isolation, must either stay that way or go for massive vaccination programs, while those who have ‘past the hump’ and are ‘tailing off’ are likely already near herd immunity.
Poster Child for “No way to lock down or vaccinate”, India:
Or “Why Bother?” South Dakota:
Poster Child for “Lordy We MUST lock down”: U.K.:
Or “Lockdown R Us” California:
Can you pick “lock down” (and maybe a bit of when) vs. “not” out of these? Or maybe when their people just said “Screw it, I want my life back” vs “still under lockdown”:
The interesting thing to me is just how much the USA and several other places look like this thing is “on the way out”. Well BEFORE any significant percentage of the population has been vaccinated and after “restrictions” have largely been removed or just ignored.
Honorable Mention to Australia. As an island, they were able to effectively shut themselves off from the rest of the world, and extirpate the virus in most areas. But now the question is “What happens if they rejoin the world?”. IMHO, they will either take their big lump then (which, it looks to me, is a small part of the population, about 500,000 / 350,000,000 = 0.14% if the USA data are good, or wait until they have vaccinated EVERYONE (and find out what the death and debility rate for the vaccines might be…)
Graphs from Worldometers: