There are several articles now pointing out that States (and countries) with Lock-Down policies do no better than States (and countries) that do not have them.
Lock-Downs mostly change when the infections happen, not that they happen. With the potential exception of a couple of “islands” where a 100% quarantine can be effectively maintained.
That was fine if you got the quarantine in place before community spread was happening, but once “in the community” and spreading, it rapidly becomes impossible to follow the volume of new exposures. Basically, you can hard quarantine and stop the spread if it is in the “just a few” scale, but once the hidden infections exceeds your capacity to contact trace 100% of exposures, it is game over for quarantine policy effectiveness.
Almost all of the world was in the community spread case. It is also unclear just how long isolated communities can stay isolated and maintain an effective 100% quarantine. They are in a race now between vaccinations and the virus and must bet that a new strain that evades the vaccination does not evolve.
So here’s some links:
(CNN)While health officials agree face masks help prevent the spread of Covid-19, state and local governments have varied widely on implementation of mask rules. Now, President Joe Biden wants to change that.
Biden’s office has released plans that his administration intends to implement in the beginning of his term, and one is a national mask mandate “by working with governors and mayors.”
Most states already have some type of mask mandate, but some have no statewide rule — either leaving it as a recommendation or giving the authority to local officials.
Some states that had mask mandates have rescinded them. Texans will no longer be required to wear a face cover as of Wednesday, and Mississippi did away with its requirement March 3.
Here are the states with no statewide mask requirement.
I note in passing that they say “prevents” when it really is just “slows” the spread, and maybe even that only by a few months.
You can prolong the agony, but you can not prevent it, with masking and lock-downs.
CNN tried to make linking to their map difficult, so here’s a copy of it:
As this is an educational posting, map used under Fair Use law.
Mostly the Loony Lefty Left Coast states and the New England Idiots are the ones with Control Freak tendencies and hard mandates. (Honorable mention for the Democrat corrupted Colorado, New Mexico with heavy Federal Budget employment, and Hawaii; but I can’t explain the actions of Utah, Wyoming, Kansas, and the three Southern holdouts of Arkansas, Alabama, and Louisiana.
So what do the graphs of the various states look like in comparison? (Note that Texas ditched the Mask on March 10th, so plenty of time for any bad effect to show up).
Virus tolls similar despite governors’ contrasting actions
By DAVID A. LIEB
March 13, 2021
Nearly a year after California Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered the nation’s first statewide shutdown because of the coronavirus, masks remain mandated, indoor dining and other activities are significantly limited, and Disneyland remains closed.
By contrast, Florida has no statewide restrictions. Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has prohibited municipalities from fining people who refuse to wear masks. And Disney World has been open since July.
Despite their differing approaches, California and Florida have experienced almost identical outcomes in COVID-19 case rates.
How have two states that took such divergent tacks arrived at similar points?
Do note that the virtical range is different between the two graphs and really needs to be adjusted for population size. Florida about 21 Million while California about 39 Million, so roughly 1:2 ratio.
So Florida took a bigger hit early, but their more recent lump was lower and threadier (i.e. reporting in high and low bars making it look taller, but it’s full of empty spaces). California 50-60 K peak vs Florida 15- 20 has Florida x 2 at 30-40 and significantly lower.
The present 5K rate in Florida a bit higher than California, but we in California probably have a fair amount of “pent up demand” to be satisfied once the doors are opened up again…. We also don’t have the tourist industry as much, so there’s that.
Overall, the results are substantially the same.
“This is going to be an important question that we have to ask ourselves: What public health measures actually were the most impactful, and which ones had negligible effect or backfired by driving behavior underground?” said Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
Though research has found that mask mandates and limits on group activities such as indoor dining can help slow the spread of the coronavirus, states with greater government-imposed restrictions have not always fared better than those without them.
California and Florida both have a COVID-19 case rate of around 8,900 per 100,000 residents since the pandemic began, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. And both rank in the middle among states for COVID-19 death rates — Florida was 27th as of Friday; California was 28th.
Connecticut and South Dakota are another example. Both rank among the 10 worst states for COVID-19 death rates. Yet Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont, a Democrat, imposed numerous statewide restrictions over the past year after an early surge in deaths, while South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, a Republican, issued no mandates as virus deaths soared in the fall.
While Lamont ordered quarantines for certain out-of-state visitors, Noem launched a $5 million tourism advertising campaign and welcomed people to a massive motorcycle rally, which some health experts said spread the coronavirus throughout the Midwest.
Both contend their approach is the best.
South Dakota shows the usual “one and done” hump of places that did zero closing up or locking down. Same area under the curve, but past it a lot faster. Connecticut gets the usual double hump of lock-down / masking places. Originally I’d had the “deaths” graph here (my mistake) and have now added the proper “cases” graph. It is also interesting to compare the two.
Interesting to compare cases to deaths. Looks like we’ve stopped killing as many people in the second hump…
Note that with or without masking and lock-downs, we are “tailing out” and all States are dropping to a low tail of new infections. We are reaching herd immunity and only the last stragglers are getting infected. (Vaccination has not reached enough people to matter yet, so mostly we will be vaccinating people who are already immune).
As new COVID-19 cases decrease nationally, governors in more than half the states have taken actions during past two weeks to end or ease coronavirus restrictions, according to an Associated Press tally. Some capacity limits ended Friday in Maryland and Oklahoma. Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York and Wyoming are relaxing restrictions in the coming week.
I note in passing that the cases are decreasing with, or without, masks, isolation, lock-downs, or vaccinations… This article was from the 13 Mar, so about 10 days ago. Were the restrictions doing anything we would expect an uptick in cases as they were removed. Some starting in a couple of days, a LOT hitting by day 10, or now.
Looks to me like Maryland strongly suppressed cases until they took their recent big lump, and relaxing the standards had a minor catch-up blip, now fading. Oklahoma more like the “one and done” but a bit more spread out, and no change with removing restrictions.
Michigan, with draconian Democrat Rule, looks like they suppressed things enough to get a 3rd wave going on loosening things up:
Minnesota has more of a ‘one and done’ profile. Other than being a bit more rural I don’t know much about the conditions there.
The Shade Canyons of New York City look to be making for a dandy ongoing mess, but I don’t see much change from changing restrictions.
Similarly, it looks like New Jersey has succeeded in prolonging the agony until now with time shifting their cases to the present “wave”, and a little uptick at the end.
Wyoming, being a mostly open “one and done” State, had no effect from taking off restrictions. (Frankly, I expect most folks in Wyoming just ignored any restrictions ‘suggested’ by politicians anyway…)
I note that the article noted that we’ve got Gov. Nuisance by the short hairs lined up for a career ending Recall Election (so watch for the DNC Machine to diddle the vote big time to keep him in as he is Family to Name Democrats…)
In almost all cases, governors have lauded their approach to the pandemic, while critics have accused them of being too stringent or too lax.
California’s slow reopening is expected to gain steam in April. But Republicans in California are helping organize a recall effort against Newsom that has drawn nearly 2 million petition signatures from people frustrated over his long-lasting limits on businesses, church gatherings and people’s activities. He also faces intense pressure over public school closures and the glacial pace of getting them reopened.
Newson asserted that California has been a leader in combating the virus while delivering his State of the State address this past week from Dodger Stadium, where the empty seats roughly equaled the state’s 55,000 COVID-19 deaths.
“From the earliest days of this pandemic, California trusted in science and data, and we met the moment,” Newsom said.
He added: “We’re not going to change course just because of a few naysayers and doomsdayers.”
I guess he can’t read a graph showing that it’s over in California. Sticking to the (literal) Party Line to the end. Furthermore, the people are fed up with it here. Folks mostly doing the minimum necessary to avoid being harassed.
Like Florida, Missouri had no statewide mask mandate, ended business restrictions last June and has a cumulative COVID-19 death rate similar to California’s. In the absence of statewide orders, many of the largest cities in Florida and Missouri imposed their own mask requirements and business restrictions. In Missouri, that meant about half the population was still subject to mask mandates.
Republican Gov. Mike Parson has touted “a balanced approach” to the pandemic that left many public health decisions up to local officials and allowed Missouri’s economy “to come back strong.” New COVID-19 cases and unemployment are both low, and consumer spending has returned to pre-pandemic levels, Parson said this past week.
So what’s Missouri look like? “One and done”:
So once again, IMHO, we see that all the lock-downs and mask mandates just move you from a “one and done” and life goes on, to a roller coaster of repeated Lumps, Bumps, and Humps… with about the same total % sick and dead.
Texas ends mask mandate after 8 months, becoming largest state to lift order
Longtime PGA Tour Golfer Has Passed Away At 81
Rashida Tlaib wants everyone, including noncitizens, to get $2,000…
Texas is lifting its mask mandate, Gov. Greg Abbott said Tuesday, making it the largest state to end an order intended to prevent the spread of the coronavirus that has killed more than 42,000 Texans.
So what happened in Texas in the days since the 10th?
Nothin’ much. Just continued tailing off of cases into herd immunity.
So my take on all this is pretty simple:
You can stay in lockdown forever and whenever you poke your nose out take a hump-a-lump.. or you can just do your best to get folks to good levels of Vit-D, Vit-E, Vit-C and Zinc and Selenium status, stock up some Ivermectin, HCQ, and Doxycycline, and “get over it” in one go; preserving a thriving economy and citizen sanity.
In most places, we’re already at some close point to herd immunity (and reached it at far lower levels of sickness than projected – likely due to most people being healthy and having some prior exposure to other Corona Viruses giving cross immunity).
I’m going to look through the other states on the “open for business” list a bit later in the day. I don’t expect any surprises, but I’ll update if I find one.
After Lunch Updates & Additions
I’ve wandered through some more graphs and will add them, with comments, here. First up, Nevada. It is interesting in that it is sort of following the California model, but decided going broke was a bad idea and opened up the entertainment industry incrementally. The present set of requirements look to me like they are guaranteed to allow contagion, just at a modest rate:
Gaming Establishments: 35% capacity limit.
Retail Stores/Malls: May operate under strict social distancing requirements; 50% capacity limit.
Libraries, Museums, Art Galleries, Aquariums & Zoos: 50% capacity limit.
Arcades, Racetracks, Bowling Alleys, Mini Gold, Amusement & Theme Parks & Similar Activities: 35% capacity limit.
Spas, Massage Therapy and Massage Establishments: may operate under strict social distancing requirements established by the Nevada State Board of Cosmetology. Services shall be provided by appointment only.
The following will remain CLOSED: Adult entertainment establishments, brothels, day clubs & nightclubs.
Face Coverings/Masks MUST be worn anytime you’re around people who are not in your household. Face Coverings/Masks are required at every business venue and gathering space—both public and private.
Private Gatherings: Limited to 10 people or fewer indoors and 25 people outdoors.
Public Gatherings: Limited to no more than 50% of fire code capacity.
Food & Drink Establishments: Indoor dining allowed at no more than 35% occupancy under strict social distancing requirements. No occupancy limits for outdoor dining. Reservations are not required; no more than 6 patrons per table.
Live Entertainment Gatherings: Live music, performances, competitions and sporting events are now allowed, provided social distancing is maintained and all safety protocols are followed.
Because, you know, a dozen people at a party spread Covid but 10 don’t; and because a brothel or night club spread Covid but a massage or hot tub does not…
What does Nevada look like?
Sure looks to me like opening up to a significant degree has done nothing at all. I’d bet if they went to 100%, the present downtrend toward zero would continue just fine.
They do have the typical doubble-hump-a-lump of places with lockdown mandates and mask mandates, but also the low ‘tailing out’ of places that have reached the end of the line on population at risk.
Iowa is another interesting one. SOMETHING happened, but who knows what…
A spike starts first of February. So what happened end of January?
I could see this early January as a post Christmas & New Years indulgence. But the END of January? Must be an Iowa thing of some sort… Or getting an early start on St. Valentine’s Day ;-)
Whatever it was, Nebraska, right next door, with an almost identical climate and economy and populations, didn’t do it:
Much more of a ‘one and done’ pattern to it, though with a one reporting period spike February 12th, 2 days BEFORE St. Valentines day…
Wisconsin, with a mask mandate, has a “One and done” pattern. I wonder if we’ve found a way to identify folks who are non-compliant?
Arizona who have ended their mask mandates and New Mexico who are still rather strict, have substantially the same pattern. Almost like the climate and local culture matter more than masks… /sarc;
Arizona didn’t have a State wide mandate, but some cities and counties did,so it overall has the Double-Hump look, but with a larger intial hump still a running out of contagion after liberty returned.
Arizona has not had a statewide mask mandate during the pandemic but several cities and counties did have full mask orders in place.
The bill passed along party lines in the state house last month and is scheduled to be heard in the Senate Government Committee on March 22.
Looks to me like “it’s over” in Arizona in any case.