Comparing Open vs Closed Covid Policy

There are several articles now pointing out that States (and countries) with Lock-Down policies do no better than States (and countries) that do not have them.

Lock-Downs mostly change when the infections happen, not that they happen. With the potential exception of a couple of “islands” where a 100% quarantine can be effectively maintained.

That was fine if you got the quarantine in place before community spread was happening, but once “in the community” and spreading, it rapidly becomes impossible to follow the volume of new exposures. Basically, you can hard quarantine and stop the spread if it is in the “just a few” scale, but once the hidden infections exceeds your capacity to contact trace 100% of exposures, it is game over for quarantine policy effectiveness.

Almost all of the world was in the community spread case. It is also unclear just how long isolated communities can stay isolated and maintain an effective 100% quarantine. They are in a race now between vaccinations and the virus and must bet that a new strain that evades the vaccination does not evolve.

So here’s some links:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/09/us/biden-mask-mandate-nationwide-trnd/index.html

(CNN)While health officials agree face masks help prevent the spread of Covid-19, state and local governments have varied widely on implementation of mask rules. Now, President Joe Biden wants to change that.

Biden’s office has released plans that his administration intends to implement in the beginning of his term, and one is a national mask mandate “by working with governors and mayors.”

Most states already have some type of mask mandate, but some have no statewide rule — either leaving it as a recommendation or giving the authority to local officials.

Some states that had mask mandates have rescinded them. Texans will no longer be required to wear a face cover as of Wednesday, and Mississippi did away with its requirement March 3.
Here are the states with no statewide mask requirement.

I note in passing that they say “prevents” when it really is just “slows” the spread, and maybe even that only by a few months.

You can prolong the agony, but you can not prevent it, with masking and lock-downs.

CNN tried to make linking to their map difficult, so here’s a copy of it:

Mask Mandates vs Freedom States

Mask Mandates vs Freedom States

As this is an educational posting, map used under Fair Use law.

Mostly the Loony Lefty Left Coast states and the New England Idiots are the ones with Control Freak tendencies and hard mandates. (Honorable mention for the Democrat corrupted Colorado, New Mexico with heavy Federal Budget employment, and Hawaii; but I can’t explain the actions of Utah, Wyoming, Kansas, and the three Southern holdouts of Arkansas, Alabama, and Louisiana.

So what do the graphs of the various states look like in comparison? (Note that Texas ditched the Mask on March 10th, so plenty of time for any bad effect to show up).

https://apnews.com/article/public-health-health-florida-coronavirus-pandemic-ron-desantis-889df3826d4da96447b329f524c33047

Virus tolls similar despite governors’ contrasting actions
By DAVID A. LIEB
March 13, 2021

Nearly a year after California Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered the nation’s first statewide shutdown because of the coronavirus, masks remain mandated, indoor dining and other activities are significantly limited, and Disneyland remains closed.

By contrast, Florida has no statewide restrictions. Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has prohibited municipalities from fining people who refuse to wear masks. And Disney World has been open since July.

Despite their differing approaches, California and Florida have experienced almost identical outcomes in COVID-19 case rates.

How have two states that took such divergent tacks arrived at similar points?

California Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

California Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Florida Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Florida Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Do note that the virtical range is different between the two graphs and really needs to be adjusted for population size. Florida about 21 Million while California about 39 Million, so roughly 1:2 ratio.

So Florida took a bigger hit early, but their more recent lump was lower and threadier (i.e. reporting in high and low bars making it look taller, but it’s full of empty spaces). California 50-60 K peak vs Florida 15- 20 has Florida x 2 at 30-40 and significantly lower.

The present 5K rate in Florida a bit higher than California, but we in California probably have a fair amount of “pent up demand” to be satisfied once the doors are opened up again…. We also don’t have the tourist industry as much, so there’s that.

Overall, the results are substantially the same.

“This is going to be an important question that we have to ask ourselves: What public health measures actually were the most impactful, and which ones had negligible effect or backfired by driving behavior underground?” said Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

Though research has found that mask mandates and limits on group activities such as indoor dining can help slow the spread of the coronavirus, states with greater government-imposed restrictions have not always fared better than those without them.

California and Florida both have a COVID-19 case rate of around 8,900 per 100,000 residents since the pandemic began, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. And both rank in the middle among states for COVID-19 death rates — Florida was 27th as of Friday; California was 28th.

Connecticut and South Dakota are another example. Both rank among the 10 worst states for COVID-19 death rates. Yet Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont, a Democrat, imposed numerous statewide restrictions over the past year after an early surge in deaths, while South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, a Republican, issued no mandates as virus deaths soared in the fall.

While Lamont ordered quarantines for certain out-of-state visitors, Noem launched a $5 million tourism advertising campaign and welcomed people to a massive motorcycle rally, which some health experts said spread the coronavirus throughout the Midwest.

Both contend their approach is the best.

South Dakota shows the usual “one and done” hump of places that did zero closing up or locking down. Same area under the curve, but past it a lot faster. Connecticut gets the usual double hump of lock-down / masking places. Originally I’d had the “deaths” graph here (my mistake) and have now added the proper “cases” graph. It is also interesting to compare the two.

South Dakota Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

South Dakota Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Connecticut Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Connecticut Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Interesting to compare cases to deaths. Looks like we’ve stopped killing as many people in the second hump…

Connecticut Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Connecticut Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Note that with or without masking and lock-downs, we are “tailing out” and all States are dropping to a low tail of new infections. We are reaching herd immunity and only the last stragglers are getting infected. (Vaccination has not reached enough people to matter yet, so mostly we will be vaccinating people who are already immune).


As new COVID-19 cases decrease nationally,
governors in more than half the states have taken actions during past two weeks to end or ease coronavirus restrictions, according to an Associated Press tally. Some capacity limits ended Friday in Maryland and Oklahoma. Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York and Wyoming are relaxing restrictions in the coming week.

I note in passing that the cases are decreasing with, or without, masks, isolation, lock-downs, or vaccinations… This article was from the 13 Mar, so about 10 days ago. Were the restrictions doing anything we would expect an uptick in cases as they were removed. Some starting in a couple of days, a LOT hitting by day 10, or now.

Maryland Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Maryland Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Oklahoma Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Oklahoma Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Looks to me like Maryland strongly suppressed cases until they took their recent big lump, and relaxing the standards had a minor catch-up blip, now fading. Oklahoma more like the “one and done” but a bit more spread out, and no change with removing restrictions.

Michigan, with draconian Democrat Rule, looks like they suppressed things enough to get a 3rd wave going on loosening things up:

Michigan Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Michigan Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Minnesota has more of a ‘one and done’ profile. Other than being a bit more rural I don’t know much about the conditions there.

Minnesota Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Minnesota Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

The Shade Canyons of New York City look to be making for a dandy ongoing mess, but I don’t see much change from changing restrictions.

New York Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

New York Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Similarly, it looks like New Jersey has succeeded in prolonging the agony until now with time shifting their cases to the present “wave”, and a little uptick at the end.

New Jersey Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

New Jersey Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Wyoming, being a mostly open “one and done” State, had no effect from taking off restrictions. (Frankly, I expect most folks in Wyoming just ignored any restrictions ‘suggested’ by politicians anyway…)

Wyoming Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Wyoming Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

I note that the article noted that we’ve got Gov. Nuisance by the short hairs lined up for a career ending Recall Election (so watch for the DNC Machine to diddle the vote big time to keep him in as he is Family to Name Democrats…)

In almost all cases, governors have lauded their approach to the pandemic, while critics have accused them of being too stringent or too lax.

California’s slow reopening is expected to gain steam in April. But Republicans in California are helping organize a recall effort against Newsom that has drawn nearly 2 million petition signatures from people frustrated over his long-lasting limits on businesses, church gatherings and people’s activities. He also faces intense pressure over public school closures and the glacial pace of getting them reopened.

Newson asserted that California has been a leader in combating the virus while delivering his State of the State address this past week from Dodger Stadium, where the empty seats roughly equaled the state’s 55,000 COVID-19 deaths.

“From the earliest days of this pandemic, California trusted in science and data, and we met the moment,” Newsom said.

He added: “We’re not going to change course just because of a few naysayers and doomsdayers.”

I guess he can’t read a graph showing that it’s over in California. Sticking to the (literal) Party Line to the end. Furthermore, the people are fed up with it here. Folks mostly doing the minimum necessary to avoid being harassed.

Like Florida, Missouri had no statewide mask mandate, ended business restrictions last June and has a cumulative COVID-19 death rate similar to California’s. In the absence of statewide orders, many of the largest cities in Florida and Missouri imposed their own mask requirements and business restrictions. In Missouri, that meant about half the population was still subject to mask mandates.

Republican Gov. Mike Parson has touted “a balanced approach” to the pandemic that left many public health decisions up to local officials and allowed Missouri’s economy “to come back strong.” New COVID-19 cases and unemployment are both low, and consumer spending has returned to pre-pandemic levels, Parson said this past week.

So what’s Missouri look like? “One and done”:

Missouri Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Missouri Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

So once again, IMHO, we see that all the lock-downs and mask mandates just move you from a “one and done” and life goes on, to a roller coaster of repeated Lumps, Bumps, and Humps… with about the same total % sick and dead.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/texas-becomes-largest-us-state-to-lift-covid-19-mask-mandate/ar-BB1eawLz

Texas ends mask mandate after 8 months, becoming largest state to lift order
3/3/2021
Longtime PGA Tour Golfer Has Passed Away At 81
Rashida Tlaib wants everyone, including noncitizens, to get $2,000…

Texas is lifting its mask mandate, Gov. Greg Abbott said Tuesday, making it the largest state to end an order intended to prevent the spread of the coronavirus that has killed more than 42,000 Texans.

So what happened in Texas in the days since the 10th?

Texas Chinese Wuhan Covid 2021

Texas Chinese Wuhan Covid 2021

Nothin’ much. Just continued tailing off of cases into herd immunity.

So my take on all this is pretty simple:

You can stay in lockdown forever and whenever you poke your nose out take a hump-a-lump.. or you can just do your best to get folks to good levels of Vit-D, Vit-E, Vit-C and Zinc and Selenium status, stock up some Ivermectin, HCQ, and Doxycycline, and “get over it” in one go; preserving a thriving economy and citizen sanity.

In most places, we’re already at some close point to herd immunity (and reached it at far lower levels of sickness than projected – likely due to most people being healthy and having some prior exposure to other Corona Viruses giving cross immunity).

I’m going to look through the other states on the “open for business” list a bit later in the day. I don’t expect any surprises, but I’ll update if I find one.

After Lunch Updates & Additions

I’ve wandered through some more graphs and will add them, with comments, here. First up, Nevada. It is interesting in that it is sort of following the California model, but decided going broke was a bad idea and opened up the entertainment industry incrementally. The present set of requirements look to me like they are guaranteed to allow contagion, just at a modest rate:

https://travelnevada.com/covid-19/

Gaming Establishments: 35% capacity limit.

Retail Stores/Malls: May operate under strict social distancing requirements; 50% capacity limit.

Libraries, Museums, Art Galleries, Aquariums & Zoos: 50% capacity limit.

Arcades, Racetracks, Bowling Alleys, Mini Gold, Amusement & Theme Parks & Similar Activities: 35% capacity limit.

Spas, Massage Therapy and Massage Establishments: may operate under strict social distancing requirements established by the Nevada State Board of Cosmetology. Services shall be provided by appointment only.
The following will remain CLOSED: Adult entertainment establishments, brothels, day clubs & nightclubs.

Face Coverings/Masks MUST be worn anytime you’re around people who are not in your household. Face Coverings/Masks are required at every business venue and gathering space—both public and private.

Private Gatherings: Limited to 10 people or fewer indoors and 25 people outdoors.

Public Gatherings: Limited to no more than 50% of fire code capacity.

Food & Drink Establishments: Indoor dining allowed at no more than 35% occupancy under strict social distancing requirements. No occupancy limits for outdoor dining. Reservations are not required; no more than 6 patrons per table.

Live Entertainment Gatherings: Live music, performances, competitions and sporting events are now allowed, provided social distancing is maintained and all safety protocols are followed.

Because, you know, a dozen people at a party spread Covid but 10 don’t; and because a brothel or night club spread Covid but a massage or hot tub does not…

What does Nevada look like?

Nevada Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Nevada Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Sure looks to me like opening up to a significant degree has done nothing at all. I’d bet if they went to 100%, the present downtrend toward zero would continue just fine.

They do have the typical doubble-hump-a-lump of places with lockdown mandates and mask mandates, but also the low ‘tailing out’ of places that have reached the end of the line on population at risk.

Iowa is another interesting one. SOMETHING happened, but who knows what…

Iowa Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Iowa Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

A spike starts first of February. So what happened end of January?

I could see this early January as a post Christmas & New Years indulgence. But the END of January? Must be an Iowa thing of some sort… Or getting an early start on St. Valentine’s Day ;-)

Whatever it was, Nebraska, right next door, with an almost identical climate and economy and populations, didn’t do it:

Nebraska Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Nebraska Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Much more of a ‘one and done’ pattern to it, though with a one reporting period spike February 12th, 2 days BEFORE St. Valentines day…

Wisconsin, with a mask mandate, has a “One and done” pattern. I wonder if we’ve found a way to identify folks who are non-compliant?

Wisconsin Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Wisconsin Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Arizona who have ended their mask mandates and New Mexico who are still rather strict, have substantially the same pattern. Almost like the climate and local culture matter more than masks… /sarc;

Arizona Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Arizona Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

New Mexico Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

New Mexico Chinese Wuhan Covid 24 Mar 2021

Arizona didn’t have a State wide mandate, but some cities and counties did,so it overall has the Double-Hump look, but with a larger intial hump still a running out of contagion after liberty returned.

https://ktar.com/story/4186581/doctors-urge-arizona-legislature-to-reject-gop-backed-anti-mask-bill/

Arizona has not had a statewide mask mandate during the pandemic but several cities and counties did have full mask orders in place.

The bill passed along party lines in the state house last month and is scheduled to be heard in the Senate Government Committee on March 22.

Looks to me like “it’s over” in Arizona in any case.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in Covid, Emergency Preparation and Risks. Bookmark the permalink.

64 Responses to Comparing Open vs Closed Covid Policy

  1. cdquarles says:

    I can tell you part of what happened to AL. Birx came and personally lobbied our governor, who is a nice, but elderly woman. I can’t tell you what they said; but they clearly got her to make a mask mandate state-wide. It ends, per the last announcement, April 9th. Our governor has said she wants a mask suggested be made, instead; though there really isn’t any evidence that general mask wearing did anything. Sure, N95 types in certain conditions will do something, yet even there I doubt they do much given the minimum infectious dose has not ever been stated, to my knowledge. (As an aside, a very infectious anything has a low minimum infectious dose. Whether you get sick or not depends on dose and your individual circumstances.) Mind you, the epidemic season for coronaviruses here is summer, not winter; though they do spread year-round and do tail into autumn in schools (they are one of the “summer cold” viruses here).

  2. Nancy & John Hultquist says:

    We got our 2nd shots last week.
    Gurantee you will not catch the virus from reading this note.

    About 15,000 ( >40%) of the people in our rural county (some cheats might have come in)
    have been vacinnated. With those that had a “case” – known or unknown — the county is well on its way to the near zero future. (Central Washington State – USA) No deaths since early August.
    I notice more folks, still few, are not wearing masks. Folks in the area are mostly just being nice, and wear them as a courtesy.

  3. E.M.Smith says:

    I’ve added a few more to the bottom of the posting. Iowa is odd.

  4. philjourdan says:

    I had my annual physical with my doctor today (Annual prostrate poke!). But I have been seeing him for about 25 years (followed him to his new practice 3 years ago as I did not want to start over with a new doctor!). This practice is actually better, if more expensive (concierge). But I digress

    He told me flat out masks do not work. As an intern, they were trained how to use masks. But told that they were to protect the patient, not the physician! And they had to be worn correctly which they were trained to do. How many of the 330m Americans (or 7+b humans) have been so trained.

    That is why masks do not work. Masks do not protect the eyes. Wu-flu is airborne. Wearing a mask and smell that Burger Kind CharBroiled hamburger? Think Wu-flu can too? (sounds like Dr. Seuss – no wonder they banned him)

    I work with a bunch of tech geniuses, but other sciences idiots. They have no clue in Econ, or Medicine. They were busting on DeSantis, so I pointed out that FLA was no worse off, and indeed better off, than most of the shut down states. They laughed and quoted CNN. I calmly showed the the CDC.

    Masks do not work. Period. End of Discussion. The sole purpose of masks is in virtue signalling. If you wear one while driving (other than being an idiot) you are showing that you are caring about the people around you (outside of a car with rolled up windows, At more than 10 feet from them speeding by so that total exposure is .3 seconds).

    If you are jogging down the road with a mask – virtue signalling. If you are OUTSIDE with a mask, you are virtue signalling. Inside, with competent mask wearers (about .1% of the population), they could be effective. Outside, they are a waste of time.

    The democrats have already told us that 100% vaccination or not, the rules will not go away. And until we send these tin plated dictators back to their KKK brothels, nothing is going to change.

    Today they released the new “RTO” schedule. My fellow engineers were “excited”. I told them that was just Lucy holding the Football and they are Charlie Brown.

    AINT GOING TO HAPPEN on the time table set down. If the damn on line betting parlors would take odds, I would bet my entire retirement on it. I know a sure thing when I see it.

  5. E.M.Smith says:

    Masks can help, a tiny little bit. No more.

    They stop DROPLETS from being propelled 20 feet and landing on every surface and nose around. Instead, only the finer mist bits go 5 to 10 feet all around (and up the noses of the other mask wearers). So total R0 can be reduced some, but not to zero. Instead of one to 100 it becomes 1 to 20 or 10.

    I’d guess that slows the spread by about 2 days…

    What, IMHO, causes the double dip shape of the Mask & Lock Down States is the Lock-Down part of it. Folks just not going out anywhere don’t get exposed. They don’t go to the Whole Company Picnic or Christmas Party or whatever the local custom might be. ( I suspect that’s why Iowa looks so odd… “something” traditional that happens end of January…)

    There’s also a rural vs urban dynamic. Urban folks locked in high-rise “tombs in the making” with recycle air at 90% (industry standard…) drop like flies once Vit-D levels drop (which is most of the time in the shade canyons of places like NYC…) while those in the rural areas are out getting sunshine and fresh air in keeping with local patterns ( winter skiing or summer swimming or ‘whatever’ they do there…)

    But I’m sure a more complete analysis would turn up more specifics and unexpected agencies…

    What is VERY clear from all the graphs is that we’re on the very tail end of this thing. Folks in States with little lockdown and masking are already “over it” and ought to just get on with life (and largely are in places like Texas and Florida). Folks with oodles of Der Leaders Rules have had a jarring Roller-Coaster of stress, less sun, more sickness and general abuse, but they, too, are not getting sick at anywhere near prior rates. Just in time to be vaccinated for a threat that’s ending…

    FWIW, here in Der Peoples Republik ov Kalifornia, I wear a surgical mask, very loosely, when out shopping. Why? Just to avoid folks being all cringe-worthy… I know it doesn’t do a damn thing (especially that loose and as it has been recycling on the rear seat of the car for about 6 months…) but it makes the problem go away (the problem being the Karen’s who Scream…) while hiding my face from Facial Recognition Cameras. I breath just fine in the loose surgical mask (unlike my N95 masks…)

    Early in the whole thing I did use a proper N95 mask, and know how to use it. I’m glad I did as it likely bought me time to learn the Vitamin Mantra ( Vits- D, C, E and minerals Zinc, Selenium) and let the Medical Establishment learn not to kill people with ventilators and let me score a jug of Ivermectin and know how to use it. Now? Now the mask is just to repel Rabid Idiot Left Wing Screamers…

    (Remember that California in general, and my county in particular, were on the bleeding edge of this whole thing with rampant Community Spread before anywhere else in the USA…)

    Hopefully as daily new infections drop to nearly nothing in the sunny summer, this whole thing can be put to bed…

  6. philjourdan says:

    Re: Double dip – Uh, yea! Lockdowns prevent Sunlight! Vitamin D. Why are not all the 3rd world Countries dead and buried? Because they did not hear the death sentence of the WHO and Dr, death Faucci.

  7. philjourdan says:

    @Scissor

    Subsidies does that to you.

  8. A C Osborn says:

    EM graph for Connecticut is for Deaths, not cases.
    As you said plotting cases or deaths per million gives a better representation.

  9. another ian says:

    “COVID response in Maine and Vermont?”

    https://www.redpowermagazine.com/forums/topic/139133-covid-response-in-maine-and-vermont/

    Cross referenced

  10. Ossqss says:

    Couple comments.

    – CDC/FDA prior mandates on 40 Cycle counts for PCR tests dramatically increased case loads. Even DR. F said they were worthless over 35, but were used to embellish and scare people into compliance. IIRC, Portugal banned them via a Supreme court ruling due to up to a 97%? false positive rate. Even the WHO backtracked on their accuracy at higher Ct counts along with the creator of the tests who also admitted they were not intended to diagnose pathogen infection.

    – Monetary incentives for healthcare institutions artificially increased admittance with a Covid tag along with attached declarations for deaths. Do you know if you die 90 days after testing positive with a bad test you are labeled as dead by/with Covid?

    – I have found no data telling of the percent of positive tests, regardless of type, showing symptoms. Why?

    – How can the flu virtually disappear “globally” in any given year? It doesn’t.
    It ain’t because of masks and lockdowns!

    – How can anyone have trust in “so called” experts who flip flop positions constantly with the wind, and in many instances, completely contradict their prior position.

    It becomes more evident as time goes on that the response to the Covid challenge, is not about Covid. Fear is indeed a powerful tool.

  11. E.M.Smith says:

    @A.C.Osborn:

    Thanks for catching that. I’ve put the proper graph in place.

    Interesting that the mistake results in a nice comparison of deaths vs cases. (I left the first graph in place with the proper title). Looks like we’ve gotten a LOT better at not killing as many of the folks with a case of it. A lot less deaths / case in the 2nd lump than in the first round.

  12. E.M.Smith says:

    @Ossqss:

    It does look like many of the mandates were more in keeping with a “Plandemic” than actual medical requirements…

    I guess there’s some benefit in that now a large part of the population is aware of how corrupt the Government Medical Departments have become.

    I know my prior faith that the CDC and FDA were doing a good job has changed to a firm understanding that they are Political Considerations first, Big Pharma second, and if any time is left over they might get around to Citizen Issues… maybe… as long as they don’t conflict with #1 & 2.

  13. David A says:

    Definitely not seeing any clear sign of vaccines having a strong affect, or a noticeable affect.

    Fauci explained that 95 percent effective means they claim there is a 95 percent chance you will have no more then mild symptoms. If one goes by exposure antibody rates in many places like India there is about a plus 75 percent chance, with zero vaccines, that you will have, at the worst, mild symptoms.

    Hate to sound like a loon, but the death rate is rising around the world, new mutations, or vaccines?

  14. philjourdan says:

    @David A – no, new reasons to lose your rights. WHO is telling you that death rates are rising? WHO is telling you it is due to the KungFlu? WHO is telling you not to call it the KungFlu?

    WHO.

    Believe and swallow the blue pill. Or take the red pill

  15. mddwave says:

    EM Smith stated “ I’m glad I did as it likely bought me time to learn the Vitamin Mantra ( Vits- D, C, E and minerals Zinc, Selenium)”. I know you discussed these items before, but don’t remember where. What are the links?

  16. E.M.Smith says:

    See the “covid” topic in the right hand categories column for all things Covid… Currently at 55 articles…
    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/category/covid/

    I think it was somewhere in the first 1/2… “MedCram Video” is one of them that covered Innate Immune System and how to enhance it. “Dr. John Campbell” also covered some of it as did another video series by a guy who’s name escapes me at the moment… all in the listed articles.

    You can also put search terms in the search box on the right and get finer grained lists:
    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/?s=vit+D+covid

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/?s=selenium+covid

  17. YMMV says:

    “Believe and swallow the blue pill. Or take the red pill”

    The blue pill is Viagra, what is the red pill?

    (joking.) My real question is how did the Matrix (1999) manage to predict the future so well. That was before Trump! Although not before Democrats.
    Just in case anyone doesn’t know, Wikipedia summarizes it:
    “The red pill represents an uncertain future—it would free him from the enslaving control of the machine-generated dream world and allow him to escape into the real world, but living the “truth of reality” is harsher and more difficult. On the other hand, the blue pill represents a beautiful prison—it would lead him back to ignorance, living in confined comfort without want or fear within the simulated reality of the Matrix.”

    The Matrix got the blue pill right. But the red pill didn’t work. The blue pill is an opioid where you live in a blue state. Hotel California. In the unlikely event you should want to leave, there are harsh withdrawal symptoms and a high chance of relapse. No red pill, just a few red states.

  18. philjourdan says:

    @H.R. – Re: Blue pill Viagra – Which just proves that All Democrats are Dicks. ;-)

    Do you know that the inventor of the waterbed could not get a patent on his invention? Why? Because Robert Heinlein had already described it in a book many years prior to its invention.

    SciFI writers predict a ton of things, most never come to pass. But the ones that do make us perk up and say “HUH?!?!?!?!” Mostly it is just common sense and luck.

    I wish Asimov was more prescient. I would really like to have a Robot with a positronic brain (STNG stole that from him for Data).

  19. E.M.Smith says:

    @PhilJourdan:

    It isn’t stealing if you call it an Homage ;-)

  20. E.M.Smith says:

    Looks like Covid Whack-a-Mole has started:

    https://www.mcknights.com/news/covid-19-variant-fuels-outbreak-among-nursing-home-residents-vaccinated-or-not/

    DateMarch 19, 2021
    COVID-19 variant fuels outbreak among nursing home residents, vaccinated or not
    Kimberly Marselas

    A previously unidentified variant of COVID-19 has infected both vaccinated and unvaccinated residents
    of a Kentucky nursing home, making clear that providers must remain vigilant about exposure even after most residents have been inoculated.

    The outbreak in eastern Kentucky involved 27 residents and 14 staff members as of Tuesday. Five residents were hospitalized.

    State Public Health Commissioner Steven Stack, said 85% of residents and 48% of staff at the unnamed facility had been vaccinated prior to the outbreak. Among those infected, 30% of the vaccinated had been symptomatic since testing positive.

    But 83% of the unvaccinated residents have had symptoms.
    […]
    “Those who have gotten it that have been vaccinated, have not gotten seriously ill, but this is something that we just have to watch as we move forward,” Gov. Andy Beshear (D) said Tuesday. “We are seeing some other examples in different states.”

    Public health officials have warned about COVID-19’s ability to mutate, with some known variants less susceptible to vaccines
    given U.S. emergency-use authorization. Federal coronavirus advisor Anthony Fauci, M.D., said Thursday that while the vaccines are effective against the quickly spreading British variant, known as B.1.1.7, the U.S. is witnessing a “race between the vaccine and a potential surge” in community infections.
    […]
    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has also identified two new and concerning variants first detected in California, B.1427 and B.1429, which may be 20% more transmissible.

    https://bc.ctvnews.ca/covid-19-outbreak-grows-at-b-c-care-home-where-most-residents-have-been-vaccinated-1.5349072

    VANCOUVER | News
    COVID-19 outbreak grows at B.C. care home where most residents have been vaccinated
    Alyse Kotyk

    VANCOUVER — An outbreak continues to grow at Kelowna’s Cottonwoods Care Centre as 23 people have now tested positive for COVID-19.

    Three staff members and 20 residents have so far tested positive at the facility where vaccines had already been offered. It’s believed the outbreak started in a short-stay unit, where people may be placed between time in hospital and long-term care.

    Last week, Interior Health revealed roughly 65 per cent of staff at the care centre had received a shot, leaving about 35 per cent of staff unvaccinated,
    despite the rollout starting at the facility in December.

    The health authority did not share how many workers at the facility may have refused the vaccine, or for what reasons.

    Roughly 82 per cent of residents at the large facility had received a vaccine by Feb. 15.

    When the outbreak was announced last week, Dr. Bonnie Henry said it served as a reminder that vaccines won’t stop all transmission, but will help prevent serious illness and death.

    It will also select for those mutations that are best able to evade the antibodies from the vaccine…

  21. Simon Derricutt says:

    EM – looks like a the world is being used as a gain-of-function lab. The results of doing this are pretty predictable, after all.

  22. Chiff says:

    What is the possibility of ADE’s arising from covid variants. Low? non-existent threat?

  23. philjourdan says:

    @EMS – I call BS. It is just the government’s way to keep us enslaved and abrogating our god given rights (and for those who object to God Given, read the Effing founders! That is where rights come from).

  24. E.M.Smith says:

    @Chiff:

    Nobody knows for sure, but the very closely related SARS-1 (this is SARS-2) did have ADE Antibody Dependent Enhancement when they tried making a vaccine for it. (On 2nd exposure folks went down VERY hard… ) so the vaccine was scrapped.

    Since ADE requires that antibody titers drop to LOW (but still extant) before it hits, we won’t know until about 4 to 6 months after vaccination if that’s going to be a problem. And since the goal looks to be having almost everyone vaccinated inside 6 months…

    Can you guess why I’m waiting for 1 year of data before I get a vaccination?

    Why low titre? At HIGH antibody levels, they mob the virus and deactivate it. At LOW titres, one arm of the antibody binds to the virus, the other end binds to a White Blood Cell, then the RNA moves through the antibody into the cell and turns it into a virus factory while at the same time crashing your white blood cell count.

    So we’ll just have to wait until the vaccinated folks have their antibody levels drop low (as the job of remembering how to make them moves to Memory-T cells) and then see if we get ADE or not.

  25. E.M.Smith says:

    BS to which parts?

    I think the evolution to avoid the vaccine is very well known science. Saying we NEED an experimental RNA vaccine during the disease outbreak seems bs to me.

  26. chiff says:

    @E M Smith
    From what I’ve been reading, the mrna type vaccines result in 10 to 100 times the antibody levels than the amount caused by natural infection. I can’t find any reliable data on this nor how fast antibody degradation would offset any ADE problem.

  27. Chiff says:

    Point is is 1 year enough to wait?

  28. E.M.Smith says:

    @Chiff:

    Again, nobody knows. This kind of stuff is why drugs usually take many years of testing to gain approval. These were rushed through in nearly no time at all. ALL the potential long term consequences and time of onset are unknown.

    Will there be a massive uptick in auto-immune disorders in a year, or 5 or 10?
    Will there be an increase in cancer over years?
    Will there be a bad interaction with other Corona Viruses arriving in the next “cold” season?
    Will ADE develop in 4 months? 6 months? A year? More?

    Heck they don’t even know how long the immunity from the vaccine will last.

    It’s all a “pig in a poke” sack and we are the guinea pigs who get to find those answers while the vaccine companies enjoy 100% immunity from responsibility for any Bad Things they cause.

    So my best GUESS is that by one year from first vaccinations (or about January / February 2022) IF there is any Bad Thing developing in many people, some of them ought to be showing up by then.

    As we already know some folks with over active immune systems go down hard with shock, and / or have enhanced auto-immune issues (and plunging white blood cell counts… in some) and as I’m one of the people with a very active immune system, I’ve chosen to put myself on the Slow Boat to vaccination. (Planning on Johnson & Johnson version no earlier than next Fall – being less experimental tech I’m willing to give it a slightly faster track…)

    Welcome to the Brave New World… So step right up, who’s going to be first to inject the entirely experimental new and never used before Gene’s From The Virus Void and become your own little virus parts factory? First ones to step up get the most exciting ride!…

    But I’m sure it will all turn out Just Fine. After all, Dr. Faucci said so and he’s always right and honest… /sarc;

  29. YMMV says:

    Good video:

    Note that the vaccines are not so good (or worse) against the SA variant.
    Although in general the vaccines are working well so far. Which is not to say the virus is not winning.
    On the choice between getting a vaccine or Covid, Covid is not a good choice.
    The third way is IVM plus the other recommendations of the FLCCC.
    And other anti-virals are being developed, although they do not get as much press as vaccines.

  30. H.R. says:

    Good link, Chiff.

    Mrs. H.R. is agonizing over the vaccination question right now. She has to travel next month and she’s aware of the issues with the new we’re-all-guinea-pigs-now vaccines. I’ll make sure she gets the link. Thanks!
    .
    .
    Also, good to see you. I recall that keyboarding is very rough for you, so you don’t post often. So it’s nice to get something now and then to know you’re still reading here. And as I recall, it’s an autoimmune issue that makes it hard for you to type. I can imagine you are right to be very concerned about ADE.

  31. YMMV says:

    @Chiff, that link starts out with the BCG (TB) vaccine. That was mentioned early on in the pandemic, then it dropped out of the discussions. It did not get much support back then (like many other things). It’s good to know that some scientists kept looking at it.

    One of the claims in the new study is that you can get this vaccine in addition to other Covid vaccines. They say it improves the effectiveness of those other vaccines:

    That is because this vaccine, BCG, has been previously shown to improve efficacy of other specific vaccines. Therefore, we expect that participants in our study could display reduced side-effects from other vaccines as well as better and longer-lasting protection as a result of the vaccine.

    But with any new idea, waiting for it may take longer than you expect. Studies, more studies, wait for approvals, wait for production, and so on.

  32. E.M.Smith says:

    There’s also the “one shot” J&J vaccine (viral vector type). It is sort of 1/2 way between the RNA vaccines and the “blender of virus parts” vaccines. It doesn’t load you up with mRNA soup, but uses a different more benign virus to deliver spike protein instructions for your cells to make up some antigen… I’m likely to get it if I get any. 66% ? or some such effective at prevention and 100% of recipients who did still get sick had milder cases and none were hospitalized.

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/different-vaccines/janssen.html

    Information on how well the vaccine works

    The J&J/Janssen vaccine was 66.3% effective in clinical trials (efficacy) at preventing laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 illness in people who had no evidence of prior infection 2 weeks after receiving the vaccine. People had the most protection 2 weeks after getting vaccinated.

    The vaccine had high efficacy at preventing hospitalization and death in people who did get sick. No one who got COVID-19 at least 4 weeks after receiving the J&J/Janssen vaccine had to be hospitalized.

    Early evidence suggests that the J&J/Janssen vaccine might provide protection against asymptomatic infection, which is when a person is infected by the virus that causes COVID-19 but does not get sick.

    I’ll accept the somewhat lower level of full protection in exchange for no hospitalization and a lower risk of auto-immune / immunity storm issues. (I.e. I already have high immune function and autoimmune issues so think a lower immunity stimulation is a better idea FOR ME so as to dodge the Over The Top Hyperimmune problem set. I just want to avoid the risk of hospitalization.)

  33. Chiff says:

    Thanks H.R. I suffer from both RSD and Chronic Lyme so It’s hard to type or do anything that utilizes the fingers for any period. So no vaccine for me that may affect the immune sys

  34. philjourdan says:

    @Chiff – Who is going to report the real data? The fake news? Hardly. We will have to wait for the real news to leak out in other news, Never trust fake news. They are wrong almost all of the time!

  35. YMMV says:

    “I’ll accept the somewhat lower level of full protection in exchange for no hospitalization and a lower risk of auto-immune / immunity storm issues.”

    All of the vaccines so far claim to be 100% against death and against becoming seriously sick. See for example https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3odScka55A
    That video also makes a point that you can’t compare their efficacy numbers because they were tested against different variants.

    There are different technologies involved. The mRNA ones were the first on the scene, followed by DNA. Both have the body make the spike protein which then causes the antibodies to form. A third kind, still in trials, involves putting already made spike proteins into the body. That seems like it should be the safest from ADE and long term side effects. (Novavax). And then there are anti-viral drugs still to come which are not vaccines. This story is not over.

    But what should the goal of a protocol against Covid be? To keep everybody from dying or having serious illness? That’s the current goal. From getting sick at all? Desirable. But the most important thing may not turn out to be either of these, but rather the ability to stop the spread.

    Current thought is that Covid transmission is over 50% from people who do not have any symptoms (and some of those never will have them). Will any of the vaccines catch and contain the virus quick enough to prevent that? That has to come sooner than catching it to avoid getting sick. It seems nobody knows or they are not saying.

  36. David A says:

    Vaccine still not kicking in, cases rising, deaths rising. ?

  37. p.g.sharrow says:

    It seems that injuries and death from the Covid vaccines are being classed as Covid-19 caused.I guess they need to keep the scare going and cover up the bad outcomes from vaccinations…pg

  38. David A says:

    PG, possibly. Essential statistics, like how many deaths, illnesses etc… one would expect for the number and demographics of those receiving the vaccine is not done as far as I know.

    And that, in itself, is suspect. Multi billion dollar budgets, and essential statistics are not kept or released.

  39. E.M.Smith says:

    @Chiff:

    Might want to look at Ivermectin…

    https://howirecovered.com/lyme-disease-and-co-infections/

    Well, after getting my Lyme diagnosis, I did a Google search on Ivermectin Lyme Babesia and bingo, I discovered Ivermectin, is not just good for strongyloides, but also Lyme (borrelia burgdorferi) and babesia which I can see under the microscope.

    If you’ve been following me, you know I don’t like pharmaceuticals at all but make some exceptions. Ivermectin is going to be one and I restarted today.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6625054/

    Methods
    The fluorescence-based assay was used for evaluating the inhibitory effect of IVM on four Babesia species, including B. bovis, B. bigemina, B. divergens, B. caballi, and Theileria equi, the combination with diminazene aceturate (DA), clofazimine (CF), and atovaquone (AQ) on in vitro cultures, and on the multiplication of a B. microti-infected mouse model. The cytotoxicity of compounds was tested on Madin–Darby bovine kidney (MDBK), mouse embryonic fibroblast (NIH/3 T3), and human foreskin fibroblast (HFF) cell lines.

    Results
    The half-maximal inhibitory concentration (IC50) values determined for IVM against B. bovis, B. bigemina, B. divergens, B. caballi, and T. equi were 53.3 ± 4.8, 98.6 ± 5.7, 30.1 ± 2.2, 43.7 ± 3.7, and 90.1 ± 8.1 μM, respectively. Toxicity assays on MDBK, NIH/3 T3, and HFF cell lines showed that IVM affected the viability of cells with a half-maximal effective concentration (EC50) of 138.9 ± 4.9, 283.8 ± 3.6, and 287.5 ± 7.6 μM, respectively. In the in vivo experiment, IVM, when administered intraperitoneally at 4 mg/kg, significantly (p < 0.05) inhibited the growth of B. microti in mice by 63%. Furthermore, combination therapies of IVM–DA, IVM–AQ, and IVM–CF at a half dose reduced the peak parasitemia of B. microti by 83.7%, 76.5%, and 74.4%, respectively. Moreover, this study confirmed the absence of B. microti DNA in groups treated with combination chemotherapy of IVM + DA and IVM + AQ 49 days after infection.
    Conclusions
    These findings suggest that IVM has the potential to be an alternative remedy for treating piroplasmosis.
    […]
    Ivermectin (IVM) is a macrocyclic lactone derived from avermectin, which is produced by an actinomycete, Streptomyces avermitilis [10]. IVM is a safe drug active against a wide range of internal and external parasites, and it is used widely in both veterinary and human medicine [11, 12]. In human medicine, IVM is used to treat onchocerciasis (river blindness). IVM is effective against many worm infestations (such as strongyloidiasis, ascariasis, trichuriasis, filariasis, and enterobiasis) and some epidermal parasitic skin diseases, including scabies [13]. Originally thought to have antibacterial or antiviral properties, IVM has recently been reported to kill Mycobacterium tuberculosis, including multidrug-resistant strains [14]. IVM induces chloride-dependent membrane hyperpolarization and cell death in leukemia cells, prompting suggestions that it could be rapidly put into clinical trials for leukemia. IVM was shown to be a highly potent inhibitor of yellow fever virus replication and the replication of several other flaviviruses, notably dengue, Japanese encephalitis, and tick-borne encephalitis [14]. Recently, the endectocide IVM has arisen as a promising new tool to be added to malaria control programs [12]. Moreover, new possible uses are continuing to emerge, heralding potential breakthroughs in tackling various neglected tropical diseases—and beyond. Research has shown that, for human African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness), deworming cattle with single doses of IVM decrease the survival and fecundity of disease-transmitting tsetse flies feeding on cattle by up to 94% [15]. IVM is also efficacious in curing cutaneous leishmaniasis, killing Leishmania parasites in vitro and via subcutaneous inoculation [16].

    In veterinary medicine, IVM is used against many intestinal worms, most mites, and some lice. It is sometimes administered in combination with other medications to treat a broad spectrum of animal parasites [10]. In addition, IVM can be given by mouth, topically, or via injection. As a drug targeting nematode and arthropod parasites, IVM has not been reported to directly interact with any mammalian proteins with high selectivity [17]. In this study, we evaluated the effects of IVM against the growth of B. bigemina, B. bovis, B. divergens, B. caballi, and T. equi in vitro as well as the chemotherapeutic potential of IVM on B. microti in vivo.

    Seems to do a number on a whole lot of related pests…

  40. Chiff says:

    @ E.M.Smith

    Thanks for the info. I’m on Doxycycline-hyclate again (twice a year) and going for another steroid shot w a slow release additive. I’ll ask the Doc to prescribe IVM

  41. another ian says:

    This could be improved but here is a start

    “another ian
    March 29, 2021 at 6:04 am
    Adapted from Tom Lehrer with incomplete rhyme

    “When the virus goes up who cares where it comes down
    That’s not my department said DrAnthony Fauci”

    Reply
    B A Deplorable Rupertslander
    March 29, 2021 at 4:47 pm
    “When the virus goes up, why should it come down?
    That’s not my department, said Fauci the Clown.”

    Loses a bit in the correction but at least it rhymes.”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2021/03/29/one-flu-out-of-the-wuhan-nest-29/#comment-1425663

  42. philjourdan says:

    @David A – check out the Amish – very few are getting vaccinated, they broke quarantine almost a year ago. – https://www.foxnews.com/health/amish-community-coronavirus-herd-immunity-health-official-says

    And no new cases in months.

  43. E.M.Smith says:

    I got a fair amount of my attitudes from the Amish via Dad from his Amish Mom…

  44. H.R. says:

    I believe that, to make Chairman Zhou Bai-Den look to be the hero, the PCR tests were dialed back from the 35-40 cycles to under 30 cycles right after the coronation on Jan. 20th.

    Going from memory, I think the recommendation was about 20+ cycles to identify active cases. and ignoring, the fact that the inventor of the PCR test didn’t recommend the PCR test at all for identifying cases. I think that’s where most State Boards of Health are at now.

    And I don’t recall seeing anywhere that the monetary incentive to classify deaths as ‘Covid’ has been rescinded. So I suspect that ‘Covid’ deaths are still being over-reported to some extent.

    But the GEBs need cases to remain high and to exhibit 2nd and 3rd and 4th waves so the vaccine can be pushed. The reasons for that being insane money from all those vaccinations AND the opportunity to implement vaccine passports for control… “Papers, please. Ve must zee your papers.”

    I am now reading comments by people self-reporting on blogs that they, or a family member or acquaintance have had ‘Covid’ (could be just seasonal flu, though). Through most of last year, the comments ran more along the lines of, “Everyone is supposedly getting ‘Covid’, but I don’t know anyone who has actually had it.”

    So I am inclined to interpret all those graphs above as the first big Wave being over-reporting plus the seasonal flu and ‘Covid’ taking the usual toll on the elderly and producing a lot of non-fatal cases of flu in the younger population. I’m thinking that the second wave is true, but a more accurate picture of how the Kung Flu is moving through the populations.

    Xi’s Disease seems to me to be as virulent as advertised and very dangerous to those with compromised immune systems, thus the 2nd wave hitting those who avoided it the first go ’round. But I think the 2nd wave is smaller due to some or all of the factors I was recalling above.

    And I still think those graphs – skewed reporting aside – show that there was no benefit to the lockdowns.
    .
    .
    .
    If SARS-1 has all but disappeared, can we expect SARS-2 to settle down and go away, too? Perhaps not, due to the effort at the Wuhan lab to juice up the SARS-1 corona virus. I dunno.

  45. Simon Derricutt says:

    H.R. – my bet is that there will be successive waves of new variants/mutations that escape the current vaccines, since we know that the vaccines are “leaky” and don’t stop people either getting infected or being infectious (thus each person infected becomes a Gain-of-function lab, with a chance of producing a variant that escapes the vaccine and then passes it on). I also noticed a ticker-tape headline on F24 a few days ago that the WHO banned Ivermectin as a treatment, but didn’t follow up to find the actual news item and details. Since a lot of governments will follow WHO guidelines, that means that there will be a fairly-fast rate of new variants developing and a good chance of one that escapes the vaccines every few months.

    Meantime, despite the various efforts to stop it, people really are filling up ICUs and dying because of this virus, and possibly it’s now starting to hit younger people harder (data is not that reliable, but we’re forcing the evolution to make the virus more infectious and quite likely higher mortality). Here in France it seems that hospitals in the Paris region are getting far enough into overload they’re considering triage to let the worst cases die quickly enough to free up beds for the people who have a better chance of surviving. They’ve also shifted a few tens of patients to Bordeaux region and Belgium, to free up some beds, but the implication there is that if a few tens of people make that much difference, maybe the number of ICU beds isn’t very high anyway.

    I’m thus expecting this disaster to keep coming back, and unless something like Ivermectin is allowed to be used it will keep circulating for years with a new variant. Is the WHO now pwned by China?

  46. David A says:

    The global increase in Cov19 is congruent with the vaccine roll out, and at a time when the weather in the NH is warming up.

    I am posting this link, and several more below…

    http://www.nakim.org/israel-forums/viewtopic.php?p=276479

    Indrani Roy
    Scientist
    UCL
    London, UK
    @indrroy

    Dear Editor,

    Trial experiments and protocols set for COVID-19 vaccination did not take into consideration of many direct and indirect consequences of mass vaccination.

    Here I would like to bring attention to an urgent and very important issue of its indirect effect. Apart from the direct side effect after vaccination, if any; the secondary effect that might be caused due to mutation of the virus after mass vaccination needs attention too. After the initiation of vaccine programme, almost all countries experienced a sudden surge of transmission and most countries had to impose strict lockdown measures.

    Professor Paul Bieniasz from Rockefeller University, USA, expressed his concern that vaccines themselves can also drive viral mutations and hence COVID-19 vaccines can add fuel to the evolution of mutation of Coronavirus. According to him the time between initial vaccination and the time of second shot to maximize the immune response might serve as a sort of breeding ground for the virus to acquire new mutations [1].

    A highly populated country India was having a steady decrease for five months. India did not have any lockdown. Though neighbouring countries Pakistan and Bangladesh experienced the 2nd wave this winter but India did not. India passed major festive seasons where social distancing was very difficult to be maintained, still cases and deaths continued to decline. Surprisingly, vaccination started on 16th January and from around 16th February, India started showing a rise in cases. Now there is a steep rise in deaths too [2]. As India nearly managed the disease without any vaccine or lockdown, it attracted global attention. However, scientists failed to associate any obvious cause for the sudden surge in the recent period when winter passed. India’s neighbouring countries Pakistan and Bangladesh also started a rise in cases in recent period, after vaccination started, though they already experienced a 2nd wave last winter.

    For Brazil, vaccination started in mid-January and a sharp rise in cases is observed since mid-February. Such a steep rise in deaths in Brazil that happened for the last one month never happened in the whole period of pandemic. It already reached twice the height of previous peaks [3]. Globally, the cases started increasing after 5 weeks of a steady decline and coincidentally, the period of rise matches when major vaccination programmes were initiated worldwide. Some countries are now showing a decline, where lockdown and seasonal temperature are playing strong roles. Even for the UK and Israel, where massive vaccination took place, the total deaths in the last three months after vaccination now reached the overall death of the past 10 months before vaccination [2].

    Such observation and analysis raises major worries especially for highly populated developing countries like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Brazil and the African continents among others and needs urgent attention.

    Additional links to vaccine issues
    If these are accurate, it is very serious…

    https://www.americasfrontlinedoctors.com/senior-microbiologist-wide-range-of-adverse-effects-reported-following-vaccination-of-previously-healthy-younger-individuals-challenges-medical-regulators/

    https://www.americasfrontlinedoctors.com/tag/vaccines/

    https://www.americasfrontlinedoctors.com/report-covid-vaccinated-more-likely-to-die-of-illness-due-to-weakened-immune-system-by-factor-of-15/

    http://www.nakim.org/israel-forums/viewtopic.php?t=270802

    I cannot find my UK link, yet it was much the same, burecrats hiding, or making it difficult to get to the adverse reactions data, which was quite high, zero demographic numbers for adverse reaction patients to compare expected problem numbers in a given population vs those reactions, and accurate all cause mortality numbers difficult to find…

  47. H.R. says:

    @Simon D.: I bought the oral Ivermectin last year in case the bug got past my quinine-zinc-D3 preventive measures.

    A few days ago, I bought the topical Ivermectin because the oral version seemed too concentrated to get a right-sized dose. The topical version is more controllable for dosage.

    I am looking to use it as a preventive because, as you wrote, the W.H.O. and CDC seem to be pushing policies that are turning everyone into a gain of function lab. I have been tied up on other things, but the preventive dose was mentioned here and I suppose that info is also hiding out on the web somewhere.

    Shelf life on Ivermectin is pretty good. Refrigeration probably will extend the shelf life even more. Perhaps I should pick up more in case the sale of it is banned.

    I am not against getting a Covid vaccination. I’m just not willing to be a guinea pig for these early vaccines when Ivermectin is available as preventive or treatment.

    The TB vaccine is looking good to me for the same reasons that Ivermectin and some other treatments work. IMO, the Covid bug’s fatal flaw is that there are a number of treatments that interfere directly with its means of attacking cells, whereas the vaccines look to enable the immune system to fight of the virus. But the virus seems to mutate just fast enough to stay ahead of immune systems’ ability to respond. I think the TB vaccine is set for possible approval in July or thereabouts.

    That’s why I think attacking the virus directly with some agent seems to be the way to go. Meanwhile, the immune system gets a little breathing space to gin up the necessary response and finish the job on anything that got past the direct treatment.

  48. E.M.Smith says:

    @Simon:

    The W.H.O. has been pwned by China for many years now.

    Dr. John Campbell had a video a couple of days ago about the New Variant and infection of younger people. Note that “young” means under 60… but even the 20-39 group were getting more cases and sicker. Seems it has found a way past some of the benefit of a young immune system.

    He did also point out the the elderly where largely already vaccinated in the countries in question so the skew toward younger was because that’s where there were available hosts.

    @H.R.:

    The Ivermectin Drench I have lists the dose for a 220 lb sheep. It matches what I calculated for a human based on my PDR Physician’s Desk Reference (big book of drugs…). So I just think of myself as a 100 kilo Ram and get on with it.

    I used it as a preventative in my marathon cross country journey (and mingle with 1/4 million of my closest strangers almost all maskless…) and had zero issues.

    Also the I-Mask Protocol will give dosing information and then you just need to “do the math” for whatever the concentration is in whatever is your source.
    https://covid19criticalcare.com/covid-19-protocols/i-mask-plus-protocol/

    I don’t use it (weekly is how often it is applied…) almost all the time. It sits on the shelf. I’ve used it when going into high risk situations, or when some kind of snivels / symptoms start. 100% of the time, so far, whatever has started was gone in a day or at most 2. Not proof of much as it could just be I blew the pollen out of my nose… or the scratchy throat was from too much whiskey ;-)

    On farms, jugs of Ivermectin Drench are typically hung on the cattle chute (where you lock their head in place and use what looks like a small bug sprayer to drench them…) in the sun; or put on a shelf in a barn with no air temperature controls. Dr. Pol (video vet show) keeps a gallon jug in his Jeep pretty much year round. Refrigeration may help, but does not seem to be needed.

    TB Vaccine? Tell me more…

    (FYI the supposed test by the UN of a female sterilizing vaccine in Nicaragua and Africa was based on a Tetanus Derivative protein, required two shots, and was ‘sold’ as ‘preventing maternal tetanus’ which I suppose it would do as if you are not maternal you can’t have maternal tetanus… but I’d be concerned about and investigate any “2 shot vaccination” and especially one based on some other disease…)

    @David A:

    I have great concern about the way vaccination is being done and the high probability it is going to do a lot of “Gain of Function”. I’m fairly certain it isn’t going to work as expected. Spouse has the hots to get vaccinated so will likely be doing an ‘in home’ ersatz experiment in the next month… Though I think she’s willing to wait for the J&J one shot vaccine. I’m not “going there” until more data is available. I want to see two things:

    1) About 1 year of evidence for efficacy without either fertility effects or ADE disaster.

    2) We see what it does to waves of variants.

    I suppose there’s a quasi 3rd thing. With my history of hyper-immunity ( I toss off most all infections remarkably fast and tend to not go down with the bug of the year; plus have a tendency to allergies – i.e. my body picks lots of random stuff to attack..) I’m not interested in a big shock / reaction / whatever. So want the “how to deal with people like me” better worked out. NOT going for the mRNA “turn me into a virus parts factory” vaccine as I’m pretty sure I’d make way too many and be one of the folks needing medical support in the cyctokine storm / shock event after that.

    As a side bar, looks like the tendency for the AstraZeneca vaccine to throw blood clots is worse in young women on the pill (not surprising as the pill has clotting issues already). So some countries are recommending it for old folks but not young women on contraceptives. That’s an example of what I want them to learn… from other people

    For those reasons I’m choosing to put myself in the “control group” who does not get vaccinated but uses preventatives / treatments if needed. “My body, my choice” to quote some other movement…
    ;-)

  49. H.R. says:

    E.M.: “For those reasons I’m choosing to put myself in the “control group” who does not get vaccinated but uses preventatives / treatments if needed. “

    Like!

    So if things get sticky about vaccine passports, just print up some official looking, tri-fold document with stamps, seals, and illegible signatures, and your photo that says:

    Vaccine Study Control Subject
    Do NOT vaccinate under any circumstances.
    Member of the Effectiveness Study Placebo Group

    If you inadvertently vaccinate this person, you must report
    yourself within 24 hours to the Deputy Director of the CDC
    and the The Administrator of Global Vaccine Trials at the W.H.O.
    They will send you all the necessary forms to fill out*** and a team
    of interviewers will be scheduled to debrief you and find the root
    cause behind your illegal vaccination.

    The penalty if found guilty for inadvertent vaccination is a fine of not more than $10,000
    and a sentence of a minimum of 2 years in a Federal Penitentiary nor more than 10 years.

    ***Because nobody likes Government paperwork!

    😜 🤣🤣 😎

  50. H.R. says:

    Anybody know any good document forgers? 😜

  51. p.g.sharrow says:

    @HR sounds good to me, put me in for 2 sets at least. The more buried in Bureaucratic gob-body gook the better. …pg

  52. E.M.Smith says:

    @H.R.:

    No need for forgers. For about $150 last time I looked you can form a 1 person corporation in Delaware. Give it a name like “Institution For Viral Studies” or “Foundation For Virus Research” (avoid the words medical and vaccination as that might put you under medical law noses…) and then just put in your corporation minutes that you will conduct statistical studies of contagion among the un-vaccinated… At that point, print up your “control identity documents” ;-)

    Oh, also realize that you can appoint anyone a “Director” and the title of “Director of FOO” looks impressive on forms. Then for about $40 you can become a notary public (spouse did it for a while) and most of that is the cost of the crimper stamp and purple ink… then all your documents can be notarized as signed by Director Mumble of Foo. All nice and legal like.

    Just be sure to at no time state you are doing anything in terms of medical treatments and only doing educational statistical studies in your corporate charter / minutes. Anybody is allowed to fiddle with numbers…

    I would avoid saying the CDC / WHO would be involved in any specific action, but might be willing to state that “Vaccination of this Control Subject will cause grievous harm to the study underway and we would be required to contact the CDC and WHO for guidance as to further action to take.”

    That way it’s vague, your consultation can consist of reading their web page and choosing “Oh Well, nothing more to do…” and it is all still the truth.

    FWIW, near as I can tell, the Feds have realized they will end up in court pronto if they try to enforce “Your Papers! Plezzz.” So they are letting Corporations take the fall via “encouraging” them. For travel, near as I can tell, that’s ONLY Airlines ATM. (Buses are not relevant to me and Amtrak? Are you kidding me?). So impact on me will be ZERO.

    Some years back I dumped flying. It started with anything under 400 miles. I could do that in about 400/80 = 5 hours of I-5 or 400/50 = 8 hours of AwShit roads. A flight started with “arrive 2 hours early” and then there was the one hour prep and get to the airport. Other end is at least 1/2 hour getting to the car rental and another hour before you are “on the road” (and a random 20 minutes to 2 days depending on crap happening with weather, news, breakdowns, etc.). So add in the 2 hours flight time (taxi, take off, landing, taxi making most of it on short flights) you have about 5.5 to 6 or 8 hours.

    Then figure my car takes me to exactly my destination, not starting from the airport other side of town during rush hour… I get my own tunes, exactly the food I like along the way, I can take my pocket knife, tool box, strange electronic devices to install, and BIG bottles of shampoo (or booze) and I’m not seeing how the airplane wins.

    Over time, as the Electronic Cavity Search got worse (STRIP! Shoes in box. Spread-em!) I just slowly extended the range. Original extension was to Colorado (as I had to take a tool box and stuff for a job) then Texas (about 24 hours I can be there). So for a few years I’d fly coast to coast, but anything closer than Dallas I’d just drive. As duration driving skills developed, that reached the point where I didn’t see the utility of coast to coast so much anymore. Having spent the night in Orlando Airport twice did “adjust my attitude” in some way…

    So, for me, I’ll just drive, thanks.

    Y’all saw what I can do with the shot to Orlando then up the East Coast and back in Damn Fast time. Even with the Snow & Ice Adventures (that were kind of interesting after all ;-)

    “Get Woke, Go Broke!, airlines…”

    So not sure what company would be left to demand that I have one. There will be a cadre of small shop owners of similar attitude who will be willing to sell. I can live happily without Target, Walmart or Government Motors Service Center…

  53. H.R. says:

    Oh… you mean do it legal-like? Where’s the fun in that?

    Naahhhhhhh! I like the balls to the wall, illegal forgery, using the threat of government and bureaucratic backlash, and the sheer in-your-face intimidation factor.

    Oooo… having a badge to flash might be a nice touch. And a bar code tattoo on the back of the neck 😁

  54. E.M.Smith says:

    @H.R.:

    Well if you are going to do that… put the bar code on the back of your hand where they can see it (I know, it was back of the neck in that movie…) where all bland black, talk into your sleeve asking confirmation, and wear an ear bud in one ear… Dark glasses too…

    Have an odd “rectangular thing in a holster” on one side where can barely be seen under the jacket from time to time, but not clear what it is, like a Star Trek Communicator or the mini-phaser. Alternatively, something that looks like a miniature medical bag in black leather at hand.

    Have a similarly attired traveling companion who is ALWAYS looking away from where your attention is pulled.

    Find a person to play messenger who comes up to you with “Sorry to interrupt, Sir, but The Boss needs to talk to you…” (or have an announcement over the intercom paging you to the White Phone…)

    There’s also an odd psychological impact of smells. Now I don’t know if they still do this with the current crop of high school kids, but we had to dissect critters stored in formaldehyde… so a SMALL appliance to deposit a few drops where it can result in the vague odor of “Eau Du Death” can have interesting effects… it will immediately invoke memories of frog guts among a certain population…

    Just don’t expect to get on the plane…

  55. Paul, Somerset says:

    I have a general rule of “never take a drug you don’t need, in case it interferes with one you do need.” These vaccines definitely fall into the category of “not needed” for me (59, not fat, not ill). There’s nothing wrong with me right now, and I’d like to keep it that way. Basically, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

    It’s the interactions which derail pharmaceuticals as much as anything. And it takes years and years for those interactions to show up in clinical trials to a level where they can be analysed and the interactive data extracted. It’s so easy for drug interactions to induce chronic, niggling illness that gets dismissed as idiopathic, or age-related, or “just one of those things.” After all, none of the drugs the patient is taking has the syndrome listed as a side effect when taken INDIVIDUALLY.

    You see this all the time with elderly patients admitted to hospital gravely ill. They can be taking half a dozen different meds a day and, as a last resort, the physician cuts out all those meds. Suddenly the patient feels better again. He doesn’t live any longer, mind you, but at least he’s no longer washed out and in pain.

    These vaccines are the very definition of a chronic medication. Once your cells have been commanded to take the necessary actions to induce an immune response, that’s it. It’s irreversible. You’re lumbered with the med, whatever the consequences. I really can’t see a time when I’m ever going to be comfortable with that.

  56. Paul, Somerset says:

    Regarding what is going on with this disease, here’s something that I’m starting to wonder about more and more.

    Would the virus have ever been an issue, if the vulnerable population of the world had not shut themselves indoors out of sunlight and fresh air, only venturing out with a gag to compromise their breathing?

    Would anyone but a few curious specialist medics have even been aware of the virus without those videos of drunks falling down in the street in China (corpses!) or sleeping rough (piles of unburied corpses!)? Or if the Chinese Communist Party hadn’t helpfully issued us with the genome sequence as early as last January, and gravely informed us it was “novel”?

    I sometimes wonder whether the Chinese Communist Party sent us those videos just to induce a bit of low-level angst, and can’t believe what they’ve managed to achieve – a world where every government has ordered its populations to live as unhealthily as possible.

  57. E.M.Smith says:

    @Paul:

    It is a mystery why who did what… sure looks convenient for the GEBs & China.

    IMHO, had we done nothing out of the ordinary: Those under about 30 to 40 would now be immune with only a very few of unsteady health have much worse than a cold. We would have lost more elderly (over 70 with comorbidity). and the 40 to 70 population would have had a very hard “flu” season with many hospitalized until folks actually started using HCQ / Zinc and Ivermectin.

    And a few months ago life would be normal again.

  58. David A says:

    A decent article summarizing the potential problems with the vaccines.

    ( It is more extensive then I realized.)

    https://www.bulatlat.com/2020/08/21/hazards-of-the-covid-19-vaccine/

    As physics progressed to the atomic level, the consequences became ever more serious, more powerful. As medicine progresses to the nano and genetic level, it likewise becomes more potent, more capable of widespread unintended consequences.

    I would appreciate a brief review of accuracy in the potential concerns expressed in the linked article, if anyone feels so inclined.

  59. cdquarles says:

    Yes, all of the concerns mentioned *could* happen. They can, and do, happen with natural infections, too. How overblown or understated are they? I don’t know; but you can be pretty sure than when very large numbers of people get exposed, bad stuff will happen. Just because B happened after A does not mean A caused B. It will be tough to disentangle the many factors involved.

  60. David A says:

    Thanks CD that fits my perspective.
    It will be difficult to disentangle the results for ligitimate reasons, and mainly because our governments are habitual agenda driven liars.

    1. How come the exact demographics of the adverse reaction cases is not published.
    2. How come that demographic is not compared to what would be normal in a random similar demographic? ( It is not from a lack of budget)
    3. If governments were serious about asking everyone to trust the vaccine safety, would they not publish such information?
    4. Are the reported adverse reactions just a portion of the actual number, or do they record 100 percent of the adverse reactions?
    ( In the US case I have heard that the vast majority of adverse reactions are not recorded, yet I don’t know.)
    5. In the CAGW hypothesis, the alarmists refuse to debate very well qualified, well published PHD scientists. Likewise, the Cov19 alarmists refuse to debate very respected PHD scientists who outline many potential harms from the vaccine, some that, if they occur, will not be known for years. How come these potential harms are summarily dismissed and the concerned qualified scientists slandered?

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