A TWTR Tale of Market Fails

Just a couple of stock charts and my reading of them. Centered on Twitter and Woke Tech, with a passing mention of Disney.

5 Year S&P 500 Context

5 Year S&P 500 Context

The broad 500 stock market has risen nicely for 5 years, but presently topped out on Fed rate hikes. There’s a little rebound at the moment but both MACD and DMI are calling a Be Out. Volume is to the downside, but not yet big peaks, so not yet a bottom. PSAR calling for a small rally short term, but to be used to exit long positions.

Narrowing our time scope to one year:

One Year market indexes

One Year market indexes

The Russel 2000 is the bottom gold line. LOTS of weakness in the smaller stocks. The top red line QQQ is Nasdaq tech stocks. Leaders in up markets, crossing below S&P 500 in down markets. Now crossed below.

DIS Disney, the blue line, has underperformed the broad market, so is doing something wrong…

For the SPY ticker, price has crossed below the SMA stack, that has mostly inverted. Returned to it from below, and is struggling to get back above it. Signs of weakness and a market top.

Twitter vs Disney vs Facebook vs NASDAQ one year

Twitter vs Disney vs Facebook vs NASDAQ one year

So how does TWTR Twitter measure up? For a year it has underperformed Nasdaq (and FB Facebook and even DIS Disney). In Feb FB took a big hit. Might be interesting to see what Woke Broke did to them… but what interests me (other than DIS dropping by 1/3 this year…) is the Elon Put showing up in Twitter the last 2 months. Then the huge volume lift with his tender offer. Somebody is buying a LOT of Twitter stock… MACD and DMI says it is an in play buy for a trade. Though I won’t be buying as hostile takeovers are very volatile.

How about an “all data” on TWTR:

Essentially flat since the IPO with ripples. That will be a LOT of frustrated folks who expected a rocket ride and got nothing. My guess is they would love the golden hand of Elon turning things around. Watch for a proxy fight…

FB has gone from golden to cratering. Disney has been a very slow grower flat for eight years, popped for one, now rolled over and dropping ahead of the broad market. Long S&P short DIS would be an interesting hedge. At least for another 25% drop in DIS or market drop catching up.

Twitter All Data vs market and others

Twitter All Data vs market and others

For me, these graphs just illustrate the strength of “Get Woke, Go Broke”. So much I think you can use new Woke announcements or ESG (Environmental Social Governance) adoption to indicate candidates for shorting. Then let the faster charts be your timing guide.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in Economics - Trading - and Money. Bookmark the permalink.

12 Responses to A TWTR Tale of Market Fails

  1. E.M.Smith says:

    If looks like your privacy being respected caused Facebook plunge. Or maybe it was people leaving the tech bubble woke jail:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/03/facebook-shares-plummet-22percent-after-reporting-weak-guidance.html

    Shares of Facebook parent Meta closed down more than 26% Thursday after the company forecasted weaker-than-expected revenue growth in the next quarter. It also said it’s taking a big hit from Apple’s privacy changes, and showed the first quarterly decline in daily active users on record.

    The stock finished with its biggest one-day drop ever, ahead of the 19% plummet it saw in July 2018. Thursday’s drop shaved more than $230 billion from its market cap, bringing it to about $660 billion.

    The company, which released earnings under its new name for the first time with a new reporting structure, missed earnings estimates for the fourth quarter at $3.67 vs. $3.84 analysts were expecting, according to Refinitiv. But it beat on revenue for the quarter, at $33.67 billion vs. $33.4 billion estimated.

    Still, its revenue forecast of $27 billion to $29 billion for the first quarter fell below analyst expectations of $30.15 billion, according to Refinitiv.

    The company said Apple’s iPhone privacy changes, which impact its ad-targeting and measuring, would result in a $10 billion revenue hit this year.
    It also said macroeconomic challenges like inflation and supply chain disruptions, are weighing on advertiser budgets.

  2. another ian says:

    “Disney Corp Has Lost $46 Billion in Value Since Declaring Support for LGBTQ Studies in K-3 Education
    April 23, 2022 | Sundance | 76 Comments”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/04/23/disney-corp-has-lost-46-billion-in-value-since-declaring-support-for-lgbtq-studies-in-k-3-education/

  3. John Hultquist says:

    For many different reasons many people should not be investing in individual stocks or bonds. The alternatives have worked well much of the time, but not always.
    One of the problems of using index funds is that you cannot easily eliminate a large company, such as Disney, regardless of whether you like or dislike the company. One could invest in small and mid-cap company funds but that just changes which companies to worry about.
    The silver lining is that if a person is faced with these issues, then she or he is likely better off than someone who has no investments to worry about.

  4. John H, I disagree with your first statement. In more than 40 years of investing (including for my own superannuation fund) I have found only one fund which for a couple of years performed well. Many of the funds in which I had a small investment (10-20 thousands) performed badly. I have a spread of shares both Australian and overseas (US Eu & Asia). I do not invest in bonds. One is far better off buying shares in a sound company that has a long record of paying a good dividend yield (eg 5-6% such as the major Australian banks -I have NAB & BOQ at present but in past have had ANZ CBA & WBC). I bought CBA at the public offer for my super in 1996. I sold it not long before covid at around $90/share. I believe I can do better than any fund and I do not have to pay fees. One thing I have learnt for some lost opportunity and even financial loss one must monitor your holdings and sell if company management is bad (eg woke) or a distinct sell signal. I use Metastock with close of day prices to monitor all my Australian stocks. I look at NYSE for the listed shares I hold. I had Apple & FB in the last few years. One I hold now CVS is doing well. Unfortunately missed the top of BioNTech but am still in with a profit.

  5. John Hultquist says:

    cementafriend,
    You proved my point. Note, I wrote “many people”, I did not write “you” or all.
    Many of the people I know, if they read what you wrote, would not understand half of it.

  6. Graeme No.3 says:

    cementafriend:
    How do you avoid capital gains tax? Do you do all your buying inside a superannuation fund?
    (For overseas viewers that is an Australian dodge).

  7. jim2 says:

    Lots of left-wing nut job Twitter users are cancelling themselves by leaving Twitter. It”s such a warm feeling! I hope EM kicks Antifa off as his next act.

  8. Graeme No3, Yes inside the superfund but also I am in the pension phase so I actually pay no tax thanks to treasurer Costello. However, I regard that as fair. Most people, on retiring, cash in their super on a cruises and travel. Then they go on a pension from which they also pay no tax. I get nothing from the Government for the 50 years I paid tax. 18 months ago, I downsized houses and gave my children some money for their houses.
    Re Twitter -I do not use it nor do i use Facebook or other Meta sites.

  9. Sorry, in 4th line I meant to put government pension. In the first line that pension is from my own superfund. The Government requires a certain amount of withdrawal per year. Over the covid period until next year I think it is fixed at 7%. The superfund was originally meant to run out around 80 years old but should last now to 90 years old even if I withdraw lump sums to travel or give to the kids.

  10. Graeme No.3 says:

    I am in a similar situation so didn’t really need clarification but thought that people overseas might need some.
    Re lump sums, factor in a slump in the markets eh?

  11. another ian says:

    “Solid Take from Glenn Greenwald on Elon Musk Motives and Purchase of Twitter
    April 26, 2022 | Sundance | 15 Comments”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/04/26/solid-take-from-glenn-greenwald-on-elon-musk-motives-and-purchase-of-twitter/

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