Some Ukraine / Russia Backstory

Ukraine & Russia have been pissing in each other’s beer for a couple of decades now. The Lame Stream Media keeps pushing the Propaganda Point (P.P.) that Russia did an “unprovoked” invasion. Yet there has been much provoking done. From bombing ethnic Russians in the Donbass, to preparing to put NATO (and NATO missiles…) in Ukraine, 5 fight minutes to Moscow… and more, stretching back to The West fomenting and funding a “color revolution” to depose a Russia Friendly leader and install one that was Western Pwned (and then set up the Biden Money Laundry, and who knows how many others feed at that trough..)

Basically, Ukraine is NOT the pristine and pure democracy of peaceful purity being advertized.

We already know about violating agreements to keep neutral, NATO not on the Russian border, respect the Donbass as a semi-autonomous Russian speaking district, and more. But what about that “Euromaidan revolution”?

Well, here’s some random bits of backstory I’ve run across. The general trend is a story of The West supporting Western Ukraine (mostly former bits of Poland and Czecoslovakia, low in ethnic Russians) as they moved the country away from Russia and worked to de-Russify the Russian East and Crimea. Never mind that Crimea WAS Russian until it was illegally given to Ukraine by an ethnic Ukrainian premier of the USSR during the cold war. The people who for 200 years spoke Russian and were Russian were demanded to swap to Ukranian and have their children raised as not Russians…

So here’s some source material to read, in no particular order.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union–Ukraine_Association_Agreement

I had no idea this had happened until I saw it referenced in another artcle. Signed 21 March 2014. 8 years ago, or about when the Russian parts of Ukraine were saying no and wanting to go back to Mother Russia. Effective in 2017.

The European Union–Ukraine Association Agreement is a European Union Association Agreement between the European Union (EU), the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom), Ukraine and the EU’s 28 member states at the time (which are separate parties in addition to the EU and Euratom). It establishes a political and economic association between the parties. The agreement entered into force on 1 September 2017; previously parts had been provisionally applied. The parties committed to co-operate and converge economic policy, legislation, as well as regulation across a broad range of areas, including equal rights for workers, steps towards visa-free movement of people, the exchange of information and staff in the area of justice, the modernisation of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and access to the European Investment Bank (EIB). The parties committed to regular summit meetings and meetings among ministers, other officials and experts. The agreement furthermore establishes a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area between the parties.

The agreement commits Ukraine to economic, judicial and financial reforms to converge its policies and legislation to those of the European Union. Ukraine commits to gradually conform to EU technical and consumer standards.[6] The EU agrees to provide Ukraine with political and financial support, access to research and knowledge, and preferential access to EU markets. The agreement commits both parties to promote a gradual convergence toward the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy and European Defence Agency policies.

The agreement comes after more than two decades in which both parties sought to establish closer ties with each other. On the one hand, the European Union wants to ensure that its imports of grain and natural gas from Ukraine, as well as its exports of goods to Ukraine, are not threatened by instability in the region, believing that instability could eventually be reduced through sociopolitical and economic reforms in Ukraine. Ukraine, on the other hand, wants to increase its exports by benefiting from free trade with the European Union while attracting desirable external investments, as well as establishing closer ties with a sociopolitical entity to which many Ukrainians feel strong cultural connection. Western Ukraine is found to be generally more enthusiastic about EU membership than Eastern Ukraine.

So non-Russian Western Ukraine was working toward EU alignment and eventual membership, including military alignment, and forcing their Russian population to give up their language, culture, and identity. Then bombing those who said no. Banning political parties that were opposed, and arresting opposition leadership. Not exactly nice guys working to concensus.

Somewhere in there, big gas deposits were found offshore Ukraine, but very near the Russian parts… LSM paint this as Russia coveting Ukrainian discoveries so stealing them via invasion. One could also see it from the Russian POV as gas that belongs to lands that were populated by ethnic Russians, that had been Russia for hundreds of years, were never legally separated from Russia (Duma needed to vote for it, but never did), and were being forced into EU hands by non-Russians in Western Ukraine. Leaving one to wonder if those Western Ukrainians were legitimately in power…


The political provisions of the treaty were signed on 21 March 2014 after a series of events that had stalled its ratification culminated in a revolution in Ukraine and overthrow of the then incumbent President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych. This ousting was sparked by Yanukovych’s last-minute refusal to sign the agreement.
Russia, Ukraine’s second largest trading partner, instead presented an association with the existing Customs Union of Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan as an alternative. After 21 March 2014, matters relating to trade integration were temporarily set aside (awaiting the results of the 25 May 2014 Ukrainian presidential elections) until the European Union and the new Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko signed the economic part of the Ukraine–European Union Association Agreement on 27 June 2014, and described this as Ukraine’s “first but most decisive step” towards EU membership.

Titles III, V, VI and VII, and the related Annexes and Protocols of the Agreement have been provisionally applied since 1 November 2014, while Title IV has been applied from 1 January 2016,[16] as far as the provisions concern EU competences. Provisions formally came into force on 1 September 2017 following ratification of the Agreement by all signatories.[1]

So this comes down to the Euromaidan “Color Revolution”. Ukraine as a whole was balking at the push to move it into the EU, and away from the Eastern Block. The non-Russian Western Ukrainian part wanted it, thd Russian East did not. After forcing it via Euromaidan, the Russian part wanted out and declared “foul!” as signed agreements were being violated. Western Ukraine kept on going, including shelling and bombing areas that refused. After about 8 years, Russia steps in and says to stop it.

So how rancorous was this split? What was happening in 2014 when the first signatures were done?

https://www.rt.com/russia/554860-burned-alive-2014-odessa/

Quoting heavily since censorship may prevent the link ftom working (over time or geography)

Note the similarity to recent events in the USA. Rioters / perpetrators not punished. Police doing nothing, or supporting the approved Western Ukrainian side. Firebombs thrown at buildings… note too that this happened in Odessa, a historically Russian city with cultural import to Russians (and a current point of contention with Russia looking to claim it).

Then, wonder why some parts of Ukraine might be rubblized? Payback can be a bitch… (DNC might want to keep that in mind when spitting on Ethnic Americans….)

2 May, 2022 19:29
HomeRussia & FSU

Burned alive: How the 2014 Odessa massacre became a turning point for Ukraine

Clashes between opposing activists turned into mass murder. The perpetrators have never been punished

Eight years ago this Monday, something significant happened in Odessa, a historically important city in the southwest of Ukraine. Although the West didn’t see it as such, for Russia and the newly formed Donbass republics, what transpired there became a symbolic episode.

Provincial revolution
From late 2013 into early 2014, a conflict between the government of President Viktor Yanukovich and the pro-Western opposition was unfolding in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine. The series of events that would ensue were dubbed the ‘Euromaidan’. Meanwhile, Odessa, a port city on the Black Sea, was of course affected by these events too, albeit to a lesser extent.

Occasional clashes with police and scuffles between supporters of Euromaidan and those aligned with the government, which became known as the ‘Anti-Maidan’ movement, were nothing compared to the bloodshed in Kiev, where people were being killed.

Many Ukrainians didn’t welcome the Euromaidan, and they had their reasons. Lots of Odessa residents had strong ties with Russia, and still do. When Ukraine gained independence in 1991, a large number of ethnic Russians were living in Odessa and many had relatives in the old country. The city was built during the reign of Catherine the Great and has always been seen as an integral part of Russia’s history.

Thus, the aggressive nationalism of Euromaidan was largely unpopular there and plenty of locals were frightened by what seemed to be a passion for forming militant units. Euromaidan and Anti-Maidan in Odessa began to form parallel paramilitary organizations. Armed with a primitive array of sticks, biker helmets, and homemade weapons, these groups trained for street fighting. At first, nobody sought a fight to the death – the radicals hadn’t yet gained the leading role in either movement.

Read more Nationalists stage torchlight march on day that Odessa residents mourn victims of 2014 clashes
In Odessa, Anti-Maidan activists had begun gathering at Kulikovo Field, a square near Odessa’s House of Trade Unions in the city’s historical center. This became the site of an ongoing protest – it could also be described as a forum in the classical sense. People came to hang out, discuss the news, and even sing together. It was a very diverse crowd, from energetic youngsters to the elderly. Those who assembled there weren’t officially united by any specific ideology. One could run into Russian Orthodox activists, Cossacks, and a number of smaller groups.

The movement was led by local pro-Russian and leftist politicians, such as activist Anton Davidchenko and his brother Artyom. Their demands were very moderate – to protect the Russian language, grant the eastern regions economic autonomy, protect Russian and Soviet historical heritage, ensure monuments weren’t vandalized, let the East elect its own judges, etc. But Ukraine was in turmoil, and this program seemed extremely confrontational to the nationalists.

On the third of March 2014, after Yanukovich had already fled to Russia and Moscow had reabsorbed Crimea, Vladimir Nemirovsky, a nationalist politician, became head of the Odessa Region. He intended to harshly crack down on any form of protest. Dispersing the Kulikovo Field camp was a key point in his platform.

Tensions had been gradually rising throughout March and April. After an armed uprising broke out in Donetsk and Lugansk, Euromaidan activists set up checkpoints on all roads leading to Odessa. Nobody knew who or what they were guarding, but about 500 people, not all of whom were even from Odessa, manned these very strange checkpoints. At the end of April, Nemirovsky announced that ‘Territorial Defense’ units, which are essentially military reserves, had been bussed into Odessa:

“‘Territorial Defense’ buses were arriving in the region at that time. A lot of them. We tried to keep them away from Odessa whenever possible, but they went to Belgorod-Dnestrovsky and other places. They spread throughout the region. They were coming from the direction of Kiev. The police stayed away from them, the officers were demoralized.”

Even back then, these nationalist units were dangerous. They were arming themselves: we know of at least one case when a Euromaidan activist accidentally blew up a hand grenade. Molotov cocktails were also manufactured at these checkpoints.

Anti-Maidan found itself in a difficult situation. The initial excitement was winding down. There was a feeling that the struggle against the nationalists had been lost and nobody wanted to take a step toward violent conflict. In fact, the Kulikovo Field camp would have disappeared on its own in a few weeks. The Anti-Maidan leaders were already discussing the subject with the local authorities. They had even reached an agreement to shift it from the city center to the World War II memorial, which is in a less central location. The move was scheduled for May.

However, a less peaceful transition was also in the works. Though the police and governor didn’t want to get their hands dirty, there were enough ‘volunteers’ willing to take matters into their own hands. A football match against a team from Kharkov, a city in northeastern Ukraine, was scheduled for May 2, and Odessa was flooded with radical football fans. Rumors of potential violence began to circulate in April, and the Anti-Maidan activists had reason to be concerned about a possible raid on their camp. Some anticipated the future clashes with fear, others with excitement, but everybody knew that the Anti-Maidan camp would be destroyed. It was a perfect solution for everyone, except the activists themselves.

While rebels took over one city after another in the Donbass, and people in Crimea enthusiastically welcomed the Russian military, an easy victory for the nationalists in Odessa would give them the opportunity to demonstrate their strength. It would also allow the governor to show that he had the city under control. At this point, though, nobody was thinking that what was going to occur would take a lethal turn. A few Anti-Maidan activists wanted to remain in the central part of the city. Their idea was just to intimidate the nationalists.

On May 2, the football fans were to march through Odessa to the stadium under the slogan “for unity in Ukraine.” Euromaidan activists declared that this was to be a peaceful demonstration, but adherents of Anti-Maidan were convinced that the march would just be a cover for violent tactics.

Early in the morning of May 2, Sergey Dolzhenkov, the leader of the Anti-Maidan security group and a former police officer, contacted a member of the local parliament to request that the march be canceled:

“People saw what happened in Kharkov, Kherson, and Donetsk. The football fans were out of control. We need to make sure there is no bloodshed. No march – no bloodshed,” he said.

“I was on Kulikovo Field on May 1, and Artyom Davidchenko {the leader of Anti-Maidan in Odessa} announced from the stage that Right Sector {an ultra-nationalist Ukrainian organization whose name has become synonymous with all Ukrainian nationalists} was coming to town, and they would destroy the Kulikovo Field camp. We have to fight them off,” remembers Maxim Firsov, an activist from the left-wing Borotba movement.

Dolzhenkov and his Anti-Maidan group had limited forces. Officially, there were a lot of people at the camp, but the majority were women and elderly, who would not be able to fight. In fact, they themselves needed to be protected. That’s why Dolzhenkov decided to accompany the march with some of his men, while keeping a distance. Not everybody in the Anti-Maidan camp liked this plan, but Dolzhenkov was a man of action and thought it was better to meet the opponent head on and block them if they decided to walk toward the Kulikovo Field camp.

The police and Ukraine’s Security Service knew what was afoot but had no plans to interfere. On May 2, Artyom Davidchenko met with both agencies and was informed that detentions and arrests would start only when there were dead bodies, and there “would definitely be bodies.”

On May 1, activists from both groups were anticipating a fight, but nobody expected what actually happened.

Fighting on Grecheskaya Street
On the morning of May 2, an off-schedule train took around 500 Kharkov football fans to Odessa. Along with them, there arrived Pro-Euromaidan groups having nothing to do with football but who were armed with street fighting equipment, including personal armor and weapons. In the afternoon, they began to gather on Cathedral Square in the center of Odessa.

An Anti-Maidan group 150-to-300-strong departed from Kulikovo Field, which is about a 30-minute walk away. Although vastly outnumbered by the 2,000-3,000 Euromaidan fighters and fans, Dolzhenkov guided it in the direction of Cathedral Square anyway.

The Odessa police refused to intervene in the events. Its main forces of around 700 officers guarded the stadium, while around 80 followed the Anti-Maidan activists and 60 kept watch over Kulikovo Field. High-ranking police officers had been summoned for a meeting and were ordered to turn off their phones.

A small police unit tried to block Dolzhenkov’s group, but it simply circumvented the officers.

Meanwhile, an excited crowd had already gathered on Cathedral Square armed with clubs, shields, helmets, Molotov cocktails, and rubber-bullet handguns.

At around 3 pm, the Anti-Maidan activists from Kulikovo reached Cathedral Square via the adjacent Grecheskaya Street. Many accounts describe the arrival of Dolzhenkov’s group as an all-out assault resulting in a breakthrough. This is often referred to as an Anti-Maidan attack on the ultras. At first glance, a group of 300 charging a mob ten times its size would appear to be folly. But if you scratch the surface, new details emerge.

Some football fans saw the Anti-Maidan activists approaching and engaged them. The actual fight was initiated by two small groups of Dolzhenkov’s men and a crowd of Euromaidan activists. The main contingents did nothing at first, keeping their distance, but this was enough to spark the conflict.

With a thin line of police officers between them, at first the sides threw stones at each other. But the numerical advantage of Euromaidan was overwhelming and Anti-Maidan was quickly put on the defensive. Most of the officers were facing the Euromaidan side, which was throwing bricks, stones, and Molotov cocktails. The police began firing air and rubber-bullet guns almost from the beginning.

For Euromaidan, the altercation on Grecheskaya Street was amusing but accomplished nothing, so some activists went to the parallel Deribasovskaya Street on a flanking maneuver. This is where the first real blood was spilled.

The fight was already on when the Anti-Maidan supporters began shooting their firearms. A Euromaidan activist and nationalist named Igor Ivanov was killed by a bullet. He was likely killed by Kulikovo activist Vitaly Budko (Boatswain), who had arrived at the scene quite late – around 4 pm – with a civilian rifle, and opened fire as soon as he joined his companions. Neither he nor his weapon was ever found in the aftermath, and information on the bullet that killed Ivanov disappeared from the police database. However, several videos and photos show him having been firing his weapon before himself being shot. Another Maidan activist was shot dead with an air gun.

Anti-Maidan protesters soon came under fire too, and some were wounded. The subsequent investigation was conducted so poorly that none of the guns involved in the shootout were identified afterwards. There is footage of at least one injured protester.

The fighting went on for several hours. Reinforcements periodically came to bolster the Euromaidan activists, and they soon blocked all approaches to Grecheskaya Street. The Kulikovo group found itself surrounded at the Athena shopping mall, while well-coordinated Euromaidan teams were cutting off any reinforcements or avenues for retreat. Around 4 pm, the Euromaidan side captured a fire engine and drove it into a small barricade the defenders had built. Around 5:30 pm, a group went out onto the balcony of a nearby building and opened fire on their adversaries. Bullets and pellets extracted from the bodies revealed that at least three guns were involved. Four men died instantly, and several more were wounded, including a journalist, a police colonel, and a couple of officers. The defense crumbled. Some retreated to the shopping mall, barricaded themselves inside, and eventually surrendered to the police. Among them was Sergey Dolzhenkov, who had suffered a bullet wound. It seemed as if everything was over.

Death by fire
The Maidan activists had essentially already won the battle. The Kulikovo Field activists were defeated. By this time, people were simply roaming around aimlessly. Some sports fans from the stadium had joined the commotion after the game ended. But events were about to take a completely different turn.

Mark Gordienko, one of the leaders of Odessa’s Euromaidan movement, was one of those who began shouting, ‘Kulikovo!’ encouraging the crowd to go to the site where the Anti-Maidan protesters had put up their camp. In March of 2014, he was known to have said that he “would shoot down all separatists.” That day, he had an opportunity to fulfill his promise. Later, he seemed to have conveniently forgotten that he had spearheaded the violence.

Gordienko and a number of others managed to reignite the cooling crowd. Later, a recording of a conversation between Odessa Deputy Mayor Igor Bolyansky and one of the Euromaidan commanders was leaked, during which Bolyansky not only suggested that the commanders lead the crowd on the 30-minute walk from Grecheskaya Street to Kulikovo, but even discussed the logistics of how this should be done. In other words, this wasn’t a case of a crowd spontaneously moving in a certain direction but of one being steered there by leaders who made sure it arrived at the destination.

Meanwhile, the people at Kulikovo were confused and disoriented. Most were civilians with no military training whatsoever, and they weren’t particularly keen on participating in any battles. There were many women among them. Artyom Davidchenko had already briefly told them what had just transpired, while some people who had managed to escape Grecheskaya Street returned to give them a run-down of events. Many who had been on the square had already gone home, yet a number of them returned when they heard a crowd was on its way to attack their camp and fellow protesters.

That’s why a sizable number of the protesters who ended up at Kulikovo knew an attack was coming. Someone suggested taking cover in the massive Trade Unions building on the square, and people began to move their belongings from the camp into the building. They set up an improvised first aid station there, brought in supplies and built a small barricade in front of the building. They also had a couple of hunting rifles and a few Molotov cocktails. Davidchenko then left the square. Aleksey Albu, a low-level local politician, stayed in the building. At the time, he was not the kind who would be eager to participate in any fighting. In fact, he had learned about the clashes from the news.

The Trade Unions House had around 300 people inside that evening.

At 7:20 pm, the angry Euromaidan crowd entered the square. They moved through the abandoned camp and started throwing Molotov cocktails at the barricade in front of the Trade Unions building. Those inside responded by lobbing a few Molotov cocktails back at the attackers from the roof. It was then that a reporter who was filming everything said, “Now, they’ll definitely kill them.”

The attackers kept throwing rocks and improvised bombs at the barricade, which mostly consisted of wooden furniture and crates, and finally set it on fire. The protesters behind it retreated into the hall of the building. Later, many reports exaggerated the scope of the resistance put up by those in the Trade Unions building. Available footage shows that the attackers freely moved around the square, not needing to duck or take cover because there was no fire coming back at them.

The barricade was in flames and the attackers had set fire to the tents on the square. The whole square was full of smoke and flames. The attackers continued to hurl cocktail bombs filled with a home-made napalm mixture consisting of gasoline, acetone, and Styrofoam at the building. The holed-up protesters called the fire brigade, but no one came. The few policemen on the scene did nothing to interfere and just watched as the events unfolded.

The attackers made sure the fire didn’t die out, throwing more and more cocktail bombs into it. They even tossed in a burning car tire, while firing at the windows with anti-riot guns.

Then tragedy struck.

Independent expert Vladislav Balisnsky explained that the fire raging at the building’s entrance ignited the paint and varnish on the hall’s walls and ceiling. The burning entrance door collapsed, and the window panes were broken one by one by gunfire, creating a powerful draft. The resulting chimney effect turned the central staircase into a huge incinerator, with temperatures at the center rising to 600–700 degrees Celsius. The fire spread nearly instantly and everything that could burn was consumed in the fire. The people in the vicinity were essentially burnt alive. Others tried to save themselves by taking refuge in rooms further from the blaze. The draft continued to pull large clouds of smoke down the building’s corridors, killing more and more people on its way.

That’s when people began to jump out of the windows, which seemed a better alternative than being burnt alive or suffocating.

But for some leaping turned out not to be the lesser of two evils. Those who jumped ended up injuring themselves badly, sometimes fatally. But surviving the hazardous jump did not mean the end of the suffering. One activist was captured on camera running up to a person who had jumped out of a window, injured by the fall but still alive and moving, in order to beat the victim with a baton. Later, local journalist Sergey Dibrov spent some time studying footage and images from the incident and concluded that the victim ultimately received medical assistance and survived.

It was at this point that some people in the mob started to feel remorse and tried to help those caught in the burning building. Some threw a rope to those on the upper floors. Others dragged scaffolding to the building to help those trapped inside escape. These acts helped quite a number of people get out of the building alive, although some emerged only to be beaten on the ground. The last cocktail bomb was thrown into the building at 8:08 pm. The police reinforcements finally arrived and pushed the most belligerent attackers back. The fire squad arrived at 8:15 – despite being stationed just 400 meters away, it took them 30 minutes to arrive on the scene – and started to rescue the last survivors.

As it turned out, quite a lot of people survived the fire. The havoc subsided, and the fire squad and police restored order. Some people had been rescued from the roof, while others were found in rooms untouched by fire or smoke. The last survivors, who had been hiding in the attic, left the building in the early hours of May 3.

Elena was among those from the Kulikovo Field camp who had helped set up the first aid station before the attack. Later, she told reporters that she had been harassed by the people outside after escaping the fire. They shouted insults at her and even roughed her up, while the police paid no attention at all. During the fire in the building, those on the winning side displayed quite contradictory behavior. Some made genuine attempts to save people from the conflagration they had just started, and even risked their lives to do so, while others were happy to take advantage of the opportunity to continue to assault and humiliate the survivors.

A total of 48 people died: two Maidan activists and 46 Kulikovo Field Anti-Maidan protesters – two on Grecheskaya Street, and 42 at Kulikovo Field Square. Eight people jumped from the building to their deaths, while others suffocated or died from burns. All were citizens of Ukraine. A total of 247 people requested medical help following the incident, of whom 27 had been wounded by gunfire.

Albu, the local politician and one of the leaders of the group, was among those who had taken cover in the building but survived. He later joined the LPR’s Prizrak Brigade in Donbass. Another leader, local MP Vyacheslav Markin, died the next morning from injuries sustained after jumping from the building to escape the fire.

Ashes
In the following years, not a single person responsible for the killings in Odessa was punished in any way. Many of the murderers acted openly, wearing no masks or disguises, and were very straightforward about their intentions. Only a handful even faced criminal investigation. But ultimately, not a single one was brought before the courts to answer for the crimes committed. Whatever hearings did manage to be scheduled were derailed by the so-called ‘patriots’. A number of judges were forced to recuse themselves from the cases after receiving threats from militants.

Meanwhile, high-ranking Ukrainian politicians were quick to identify the ‘culprits’. Ukraine’s acting President Oleksandr Turchinov said that the disturbances in Odessa “were coordinated from a single center located in Russia.” Sergey Pashinsky, acting head of the presidential administration, said that it was “an FSB provocation to divert attention from the [so-called] anti-terrorist operation [in the Donbass]”. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry declared that “the tragedy was a pre-planned and well-financed operation by the Russian special services.”

From the very beginning, the authorities in Odessa seemed to deliberately obstruct the investigation. By the morning of May 3, the area around Grecheskaya Street had been cleared by municipal workers, who quickly disposed of all the physical evidence. The Trade Unions building remained open to the public for the following month. Citizens could watch live streams from the smoldering ruins, with one cameraman referring to the corpses of a young pair as “Romeo and Juliet.” No attempt was made to preserve the crime scene. The weapons used to kill people were never found. And these are just a few examples of the investigation’s dismissive and negligent attitude toward the case. In September 2015, UN Special Rapporteur Christof Heyns acknowledged that the bulk of the evidence relating to the May 2 events was destroyed immediately after the crime.

Euromaidan activist Sergei Khodiyak, who fired at people with a hunting rifle, was released from custody, and the judge recused himself from the case under pressure from a group of Maidan activists led by Igor Mosiychuk, an MP from the nationalist Radical Party. Vsevolod Goncharevsky, who used a club to beat and finish off Kulikovo activists who had jumped out of the windows of the burning building, was released due to a “lack of evidence.”

Dolzhenkov and a number of other Anti-Maidan activists remained in custody. In 2017, after many delays, the court acquitted Dolzhenkov in connection with the case. But he was immediately arrested again on the trumped-up charge of chanting illegal slogans at a political rally that had taken place a month before the tragedy. In December 2017, the last pro-Russian activists were released from custody as part of an exchange of detainees and prisoners from the Donbass conflict.

Ukrainian society reacted to the events in Odessa in a very peculiar way. Naturally, the majority of the population sympathized with the victims. Flowers would be brought to the Trade Unions building every year on May 2. The public realm and the media, however, were dominated by nationalists. For a few months after the events, social media platforms were overflowing with ‘jokes’ about the ‘Odessa barbecue’, the ‘burning of vatniks’ (a typical Soviet-era wool-padded jacket that became used to refer to Ukrainians espousing pro-Russian views and to Russians themselves), as well as slogans eerily reminiscent of those employed by Nazis about the Jews that they murdered in World War Two. The Ukrainian internet was flooded with pictures of burnt corpses accompanied by derisive comments. Many of the people who took part in the Odessa event soon thereafter ended up in the Donbass, fighting in the volunteer battalions of the Ukrainian army. “All it takes is to kill fifty ‘vatniks’ in every city, and then we shall have peace, then the war will end,” remarked Maksim Mazur, a member of the Aidar Battalion – a statement that was eagerly endorsed by many of those who had attacked people in Odessa.

In fact, Ukrainian social media did exactly what is commonly attributed to Russian propaganda. The piles of burnt corpses evoked feelings of horror, but also of rage. May 2014 was a breaking point: volunteers from Russia started to arrive in the breakaway republics en masse and even some men from Western Europe came to fight on their side. Slogans about autonomous status and the need to engage in talks with Kiev gave way to an unwavering resolve and determination to stand and fight to the bitter end. Just a few days after May 2, a Donbass rebel wrote on a destroyed and burned-out Ukrainian infantry fighting vehicle: “This is for Odessa, you bastards.”

RT
Flowers and the word ‘Genocide’ outside the burnt trade union building in Odessa, Ukraine, Wednesday May 7, 2014. © Zacharie Scheurer / NurPhoto / Corbis via Getty Images
The voice of those who were horrified by the events from the very beginning and understood what had really happened was simply not heard. But they were probably worth listening to. Two years later, Artem Sushchevsky, from the Donbass town of Makeevka, wrote:

“I can repeat all I want that not everyone is crazy and that most Ukrainians are still the good and sensible people they always have been. I’m convinced this is true, and I’m not contradicting myself by saying this. But there’s one ‘but’: these good and sensible people can live peacefully with the events that transpired on May 2 in Odessa, already two years ago. And they also somehow live with the shelling of Donetsk. And in general, they have to put up with this shameful war, consoling themselves with fairy tales about a Russian invasion. But I can’t live with those who can live with this. I don’t care how I live – as long as it’s not with you.”

Alexander Topilov, an Odessa musician and Euromaidan supporter, wrote a few days after the tragic events:

“…there were boys born in 1994. There were young girls, university professors, mechanics. I don’t know. Not all were quick enough to jump. Not all survived the landing. It’s not a victory, like hell it is! Don’t cheer us. I saw some exalted comments. Who the f*ck wants a victory like that? And who can even call it a victory? That’s a f*cking fiasco. It’s civil war. Odessa residents at each other’s throats. Who’s the winner here? I don’t need victories like that, the f*ck I do. Some people are like animals and some beasts are humane, that’s what I’m talking about. The line between ‘us’ and ‘them’. I lost mine on May 2. I don’t know where to draw it. I see people. And I see animals. Animals on my side, people against me. So, what do I do next? Damned if I know, boyo, as they say on the other side… And there are not less real people there than animals here…”

That desperate cry fell on deaf ears. On the same day that the Trade Unions building was burning, there was intense fighting in Slaviansk in the Donbass. The Ukrainian army was trying to enter the city. Soon, the militias armed with a motley assortment of hunting rifles, handguns stolen from police officers and Molotov cocktails were replaced by battalions and brigades equipped with artillery and tanks. Eastern Ukraine quaked with the blasts of howitzers and the rumbling of tanks.

By Evgeny Norin, a Russian historian focused on Russia’s wars and international politics

That is the Russian POV. You will not get a “kiss and make up” moment out of that. Western Ukraine, the EU, and Biden / DNC have cooked this into a Blood Feud between Ethnic Russians (in or out of the former Ukraine) and the Poles, Slovaks, Rusyns, and Ethnic Ukrainians of former Western Ukraine.

Part 2 of this will look more at Euromadan itself. The overthrow of the Ukrainian government by EU operators, NGOs, and the USA. The same people now fighting a proxy war with Russia & Eastern Ukraine, via Western Ukraine.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in Economics - Trading - and Money, News Related, Political Current Events. Bookmark the permalink.

185 Responses to Some Ukraine / Russia Backstory

  1. Philip Mulholland says:

    Pays Bas is the French name for the Netherlands (The Low Countries).
    Donbass is the low country next to the River Don.
    In the 18th century French was the unofficial language of the Russian aristocracy.
    It is curious that the Donbass region appears to have a French name.

  2. John Hultquist says:

    Thanks E. M.
    What a mess. Maybe I’ll live long enough to see these “military exercises” recede
    and something better comes of the turmoil. I don’t have a lot more time, so 10 years
    better see it get done.
    Meanwhile the US government flounders on boulders of its own making. (progressives, excessive spending, ‘blm’ movement, net zero (and other CO2 schist), open borders, MSM and elite cults, and such – – Oh! wokeness)
    Well, the government has had help scuttling a couple hundred years of development. Y’all know the names.
    I also think “The Donald” ought to retire after telling his followers to supporter politicians we could happily seat at our mother’s Thanksgiving Dinner table.
    John, the curmudgeon

  3. Jon K says:

    Oliver Stone (I know…) actually did a pretty good documentary on this. I found the parallels between this and the BLM “movement” to be particularly interesting.

    https://www.goyimtv.tv/v/3313276856/Color-Revolution—Ukraine-on-Fire–2016—2014-Maidan-Massacre–Documentary-You%E2%80%99ll-Likely-Never-See

  4. John S Howard Jr says:

    Thank you… going to pass this along. A lot of folks are buying the media/Biden version of what’s going on. It is not one sided and while Russia may be pulling back, what they leave behind is a pile of rubble. This is not a win for the Ukraine.

  5. jim2 says:

    Looks like the Dimowits might want a war to save their sorry a$$e$.

    Intelligence provided by the U.S. helped the Ukrainians sink the Russian Moskva in April, according to a senior defense official. The U.S. shared the location of the Moskva in the Black Sea with the Ukrainians but had no role in the decision to strike it, the official said.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/moskva-ship-sink-russia-ukraine-us-intelligence/

    WASHINGTON – The United States has provided intelligence that has helped Ukrainians target and kill many of the Russian generals who have died in action in the Ukraine war, according to senior U.S. officials.

    Ukrainian officials said they have killed approximately 12 generals on the front lines, a number that has astonished military analysts.

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/05/05/world/russia-generals-killed-ukraine/

  6. Graeme No.3 says:

    EMS:
    I was recently reading about the Munich crisis in 1938. The similarities with The Ukraine were obvious.
    Czechoslovakia had a least 6 language groups; Czeck & Slovak (obviously although the 2 languages were similar) and German speakers in The Sudetenland, along with Poles, Hungarians and what was then called Ruthenians (presumably Rumanians). The Czechs had control in the Capital and were pushing people into using the Czech language which was unpopular; so much so that there were opposition movements in all 5 other areas. Fairly peaceful (even in The Sudetenland) but these were ignored and repression increased. The Slovaks were the most annoyed (remember they also split off after the Soviets lost control), and increasing attempts to stamp out resistance led to separatist movements elsewhere. The German area had a big, strong army on their border and an ambitious dictator in charge.
    The western nations didn’t want a war so the Agreement was reached to separate the Sudetenland. That inflamed the situation, with Poland wanting the Polish speaking bit back (the Czechs had grabbed that territory in 1919 while Poland was fighting the communists), the Slovaks were close to revolt (they welcomed the Germans when the final invasions came), and Hungary etc. suddenly scented opportunities. Germany initially observed the agreement but marched in when chaos threatened.
    Sorry, but I’ve lost the article by a British journalist who commented in 2008 that Crimea wasn’t at all happy with Ukrainian demands that the locals adopted the Ukrainian way of spelling their names if they wanted anything from the (imposed) bureaucracy and other measures. He predicted trouble coming.

  7. E.M.Smith says:

    @Graeme No. 3:

    The Ruthenians are an older and imprecise term for various Eastern Slavs.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruthenians

    Ruthenian and Ruthene (Latin: Rutheni) are exonyms of Latin origin, formerly used in Eastern and Central Europe as common ethnonyms for East Slavs, particularly during the late medieval and early modern periods. The Latin term Rutheni was used in medieval sources to describe all Eastern Slavs of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, as an exonym for people of the former Kievan Rus’, thus including ancestors of the modern Ukrainians, Rusyns, and Belarusians (later known as White Ruthenians). The use of Ruthenian and related exonyms continued through the early modern period, developing several distinctive meanings, both in terms of their regional scopes and additional religious connotations (such as affiliation with the Ruthenian Greek Catholic
    […]
    During the early modern period, the exonym Ruthenian was most frequently applied to the East Slavic population of the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, an area encompassing territories of modern Ukraine and Belarus from the 15th up to the 18th centuries. In the former Austro-Hungarian Monarchy, the same term (German: Ruthenen) was employed (up to 1918) as an official exonym for the entire East Slavic population within the borders of the Monarchy.

    So before folks were more careful about tribes and details, and exactly who were which Eastern Slavs was less clear… then again, most of them started off Kievan Rus’ anyway… so less different than now.

    Compare Rusyns:

    Specifically the Eastern Slaves of the Carpathian Mountains.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rusyns

    Rusyns (Rusyn: Русины, romanized: Rusynŷ), also known as Carpatho-Rusyns (Rusyn: Карпаторусины or Карпатьскы Русины, romanized: Karpatorusynŷ or Karpaťskŷ Rusynŷ), or Rusnaks (Rusyn: Руснакы or Руснаци, romanized: Rusnakŷ or Rusnacy), are an East Slavic ethnic group from the Eastern Carpathians in Central Europe. They speak Rusyn, an East Slavic language variety, treated variously as either a distinct language or a dialect of the Ukrainian language. As traditional adherents of Eastern Christianity, the majority of Rusyns are Eastern Catholics, though a minority of Rusyns still practice Eastern Orthodoxy. Rusyns primarily self-identify as a distinct Slavic people and they are recognized as such in Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, and Slovakia, where they have official minority status. Alternatively, some identify more closely with their country of residence: as Polish, Slovak, or Ukrainian.

    A very precise group, though spread over several countries…

    BTW, Romanian is a language based on Latin and almost readable to me as close to French & Spanish & Italian. Only distantly related to Slavic languages.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romanian_language

    Historical grammar
    Romanian has preserved a part of the Latin declension, but whereas Latin had six cases, from a morphological viewpoint, Romanian has only three: the nominative/accusative, genitive/dative, and marginally the vocative. Romanian nouns also preserve the neuter gender, although instead of functioning as a separate gender with its own forms in adjectives, the Romanian neuter became a mixture of masculine and feminine. The verb morphology of Romanian has shown the same move towards a compound perfect and future tense as the other Romance languages. Compared with the other Romance languages, during its evolution, Romanian simplified the original Latin tense system in extreme ways, in particular the absence of sequence of tenses.

  8. another ian says:

    Latest Pointman

    “THE UKRAINE WAR – RUSSIA FINALLY RETALIATES.”

    https://thepointman.wordpress.com/2022/05/06/russia-finally-retaliates/

  9. E.M.Smith says:

    @Philip Mulholland:

    It certainly is curious… I knew the Russian Aristocracy had been largely French or infatuated with the French language. I’d not thought they might name places in French…

    @Jon K:

    The BLM “Movement” was bought and organized by the same GEBs and for the same purposes (removal of a leader they didn’t like ) so no surprise they look the same…

    @John Hultquist:

    You’re welcome. FWIW, my intuition is that this blows up alot sooner than later. A year or 2 at most.

    @John S. Howard:

    Just keep in mind that RT is the Russian POV and Russian version of events I quoted it to show their thinking, not to claim it is 100% valid. But that POV is what will drive their people, so best to know what it is.

    At this point, given the chasm between these world views, there is no putting the former Ukraine back together again. It is over. Best outcome IMHO, would be giving the different ethnic regions back to their language group mother countries.

    @Jim2:

    The Stupid, it burns.

    What idiot thinks it is:

    1) A good idea to be actively engaging in acts of war (battlefield intel / spying).

    2) A good idea to say anything about it (spilling war secrets).

    3) A good idea to share sources, methods and capabilities information with the world.

    I expect we will shortly find out how good Russian anti satellite weapons are. Hopefully not how good their antiship weapons are as a tit for tat…

  10. jim2 says:

    What better excuse to take away the rest of our liberties than to Win The War Against Russia!! While it is difficult to imagine the Dimowits would be so dumb as to take that far, we’ve lived to see a lot of things we thought would never happen. So there’s that.

  11. Sandy McClintock says:

    I share your sympathy for the Eastern-Russian-Speakers in Ukraine. However, the rest of the Ukrainians do not share the same pro-Russian POV. If Russia had merely moved in to protect the “Easterners” (as initially stated by Putin), there would have been less reaction from the western countries. Instead, Putin has destroyed much of the infrastructure of a country that now despises Russia as a consequence. No doubt this ‘over-reach’ by Putin was driven partly by the wish to have a buffer, and partly a blatant resource-grab. Neither of these are neighborly activities IMHO.

  12. E.M.Smith says:

    @Sandy:

    Yes, motivations are usually multi-factorial. Yes I have “sympathy” for the Eastern Ukraine Russian people (and the Crimean Russians). But I also have sympathy for the Western Ukrainian People. It is their government I find lacking and where I’m devoid of sympathy. (Frankly, feel the same about Russians vs their Government, Europeans vs the EU, and Americans vs our Government… It looks like they are all full of troughers and self aggrandizing SOBs.). It is the bad interaction of two Governments that has lead to this war. I have little sympathy for either Government.

    But…

    The point behind quoting the RT Article is to illustrate something we’ve NOT seen in the Western Press. The visceral hatred caused by the “Odessa Barbecue”…

    Resource Envy can contribute to invasions (but it is easier to just buy it – see China buying up resources all over the planet. From Smithfield Ham company in the USA to mines in Africa).

    Having a buffer can drive action to war (but it would be easier to foment a coup in Ukraine to replace the government with one to your liking – see Euromaidan going the other way).

    Neither resources nor buffers causes the desire to rubblize The Other. But the description of the Russian POV of Odessa Massacre does… For me, at least, it does explain the willingness to “mess them up” in revenge. Season with something like 14,000 killed in the shelling of the Donbass over 9 years, it starts to make more sense. “Tit for tat” with blood lust.

    What it explained for me was why they would bother going after cities when they could just take the capital, take out the government, and do a political reset. That’s what you would do for resources, or a buffer. But if the Russian Donbass cities were being shelled killing thousands and turning to rubble who knows how much; and the Odessa Massacre is in mind as to the Ukrainian attitude toward Russians (season with a bit of Azov Nazification to remove in cities…) then it makes sense to “take them down” in a vengeful manner.

    Basically, resources and buffer zones are cerebral and logical. They don’t explain the desire to destroy and raze. But hatred over massacre and thousands murdered via shelling does explain.

    Then you look into why those things came about and find the sticky fingers of the EU / USA and it looks like a bit of Soros Seasoning via NGOs all orchestrating the Euromaidan Coup to disrupt what had been a fairly acceptable (i.e. peaceful / not war) prior status… I would imagine (i.e. I have no source to quote or article that pointed this way) the violation of the prior “agreements:” to have NATO “not one inch” closer to Russia and that the Western FSU States would remain buffers; that would have caused some heartburn in the intelligentsia class. Would justify the emotional status of hatred from the massacre and the shelling. The old “they can’t be trusted” and “they just hate us” attitudes to be reinforced and justified. If “they can’t be trusted” then a treaty is useless and you need physical prevention – i.e. rubblize.

    So both the intelligentsia and the people would be aligned in thinking it OK to make a bit of rubble from Ukrainian cities.

    Oh, and one point “about me” for folks in general (i.e including new readers):

    Understanding some motivation is not “endorsing” nor “justification” or agreement with the behaviour. It is only understanding the “why”.

    I can say “Oh, I understand why Jeffry Dalmer ate those people” without being for cannibalism. It means I understand he was a criminal nut-job psychopath. That is not endorsement of criminal nut-job psychopaths… just tells me to avoid them and that it’s a good thing to put them in jail…

    So saying I understand the Russian POV, or Putin’s motivation, ought not be taken as endorsing them. It is just a search for predictive truth so one can more readily know how your opponent will act.

    Similarly, saying I understand how the EU, USA, et. al. arranged to have Euromaidan overthrow a pro-Russia Ukrainian president who had most of the votes; that does not justify it or say I approve of it. Just says I see how it was done. I can, then, go on to show how that pretty much inevitably leads to a war with Russia as it violates prior agreements and moves NATO to the Russian Border while killing thousands of ethnic Russians. Seeing that mechanism is not endorsing it.

    Which of those 3 do I endorse and think is justified? Um, none of them. Eating people is just a very bad idea. Invading a neighbor country and creating rubble is just destruction of value in my value system. Underhanded manipulation for the destruction of a government is evil too. There’s got to be a better way (but I don’t know what it would be, given that agreements and negotiations have been shown unreliable.)

    BUT: Given that the “first move” in this “chess game with real armies” was done by the EU / USA in the creation of the Ukraine Color Revolution and this installation of a clearly very corrupt Anti-Russian government (see the Biden Money Laundry) with the very foreseeable outcome of a Russian Intervention in reply: I can’t find MORE fault with the response than with the agency that caused the conditions for the response.

    Some brat steals a kids lunch money and the kid whacks him on the nose: I’m not gong to be “talking dirt” about the one doing the swinging. I’m still against fighting, but it was caused by stealing the lunch money… That doesn’t make me in favor of stealing lunch money nor in favor of bops on the nose ( I’d rather the staff enforced rules preventing both, but they usually don’t, so you get to deal with both).

    So you see, “It isn’t about me”. I don’t have a vote in how Ukraine & Russia settle this. I’m not at the table in the UN, nor in the EU Parliament, nor getting a bit of vigorish from the Bidens. What I want, or would do, is not on the table nor in evidence anywhere in this whole thing. All I can do is try to figure out “who did what to whom” to make some sense of it all. I have “sympathy” for all the people in the involved countries as they take all the shit being thrown. I have active dislike for all the Governments involved as all of them look to be doing various kinds of “fling poo” activity that the rest of us are trying to duck. And that includes the EU and USA too.

  13. rhoda klapp says:

    A word about the passing of intelligence. Using flightradar24.com you can see what reconnaissance assets are deployed. Most days there are a couple of RC-135W (USAF and RAF) which monitor radio signals from the front line.. They patrol over Poland. Also regularly an E-8C which uses side-looking radar to detect troop movements. Combine that with the comms data and you have an exact picture of the battle. NATO operate an AWACS there too. And the USN had a P-8 over the Black Sea which reputedly passed targetting data on the Moskva. This had to be real time data to allow the missiles to delay switching on the terminal homing radar to the last few seconds. Further, most days there is a Global Hawk drone over the Black Sea at 54,000 feet.

    Russia would be within their rights to target any of these aircraft, no anti-sat required. Best bet is one over international waters and the Global Hawk is unmanned and therefore wouldn’t involve the danger of killing Americans.

    Getting this involved is bad news. Probably an act of war. It is however immensely useful to the Ukraine and bad for the Russian forces.

  14. E.M.Smith says:

    @Rhoda:

    OOOooh that’s good! OSINT at it’s best… It never occurred to me that Mil craft would be included…

    What Russia needs is a plausible deniability attack on some of those assets. Don’t know the state of their laser weapons program nor if they have maser (microwave) gear able to scramble the electronics. (We do, but we also had microwave defense in our radars in the ’70s, so who knows where things are at now). A directed energy wounding would be less escalating.

    OTOH, there could be merit in doing an “in your face” shoot down via missile (hypersonic or otherwise) while issuing a statement like “The USA and EU can now either exit this war, or continue hostile actions and be fully in it. Choose wisely, our nuclear weapons are on alert.”

    Will be interesting to watch in any case.

    My read on the Russian approach says they will go for a hidden revenge. Stuff somewhere will blow up or burn in the night or some folks will just “wake up dead”, with minimal or no indication who or why. “Revenge is a dish best served cold” and silently, IMHO.

    Something like activate 10% of whatever KGB Sleeper Cells turned into now, and just let them do what they do…

  15. rhoda klapp says:

    Maybe burn some food processing plants?

  16. jim2 says:

    The Dimowits seem exceptionally desperate to hold on to power and perhaps their ownership of the TLAs. That desire seems too strong to put down to mere politics. I’m wondering if they fear loss of control of the TLAs will mean a nomination to prison for them?

  17. Lars Silén: Reflex och spegling says:

    As a finn my view is that any deal with Russia is worth nothing, it can be broken at any time. In the family there are russian speaking ukrainians. They have never complained about being mistreated due to their language. Now they are actively trying to switch to ukrainian due to what russians are doing to people of both languages in Ukraine.
    RT is an interesting alternative source regarding Europe and the US. I wouldn’t touch it even with a long stick in matters where Russia is a part.
    The invasion of Ukraine was the only reason why Finland will ask for NATO membership in the very near future. Russia is already describing Sweden and Finland as fascist countries. Let’s hope we won’t find “green men” in our eastern woods in the same way as in Donbas.

  18. E.M.Smith says:

    @Jim2:

    But who is pwned by whom?

    You can make a decent, If somewhat paranoid fringe, case that after assassinating JFK via Mafia Subcontractors, the TLAs (and CIA in particular) decided elected random folks were just too risky in a nuclear world. JFK did, after all, put us on the brink of nuclear annihilation…. so they set sbout “rationally managing” the world. For our own good, of course.

    It likely took a while to get complete contol, so Nixon, Ford and even maybe Carter were semi-randoms, though perhaps quietly vetted in the primaries. Reagan got an ex-CIA as his VP, who almost became P after an assassination attempt…. just sayin’. Then Bush gets the big chair. Baby Bush was a Bonesman and being Son Of CIA also vetted. Clinton was bought during CIA drug runnung ops out of Arkansas (so sHrillary too). That might explain all the Top Cover for their illegal acts. Trump was not supposed to win, so a desperate dump was needed (note how much the TLAs were exposed as activly working to nail him…)

    Now we have “do what he’s told” Biden and likely a Camel-A that’s inside the tent or pwned.

    So is it the Dims worried about losing contol of the TLAs, or the TLA Puppet Masters worried about their DNC Cover bring blown and the lot of them up for hanging?

    It looks to me like the TLAs never got complete control of the RNC. Just a lot of NeoCons embedded (cough, Romney, cough, McCain, cough, Cheney, cough…) Then, with Trump running the RNC Table, have nearly lost it completely, so are working the (much more easily blackmailed or bribed Lolita Express DNC derived group) for all they can. Often only the VP was their pick. (Bush for Reagan, Cheney for Baby Bush as handler)… so one wonders about Pence…

    To the extent that fantasy has wings… one would expect to see DNC Acolytes looking desperate and taking crazy risks as their handlers tell them things like “win this for our guy or your Epstine File gets published… or maybe even a bit of jail time before your suicide. ” Maybe even doing things like stuffing dozens of ballot boxes at 2 AM…

    I can’t tell for sure which way causality runs, and it may well be some of each. Senior Committee Members in congress goosing some TLA folks, while TLA Senior folks “arrange” for more junior (or most easily entrapped) Congress Critters to be more “compliant” and “cooperative”…

    What I can say for certain is that the DNC, many of the higher members, the TLA Leadership and upper management levels, many the Neocons, and significant numbers of ranking staff are immoral, dirty, owned, blackmailed, bribed and / or just evil. There’s a dirty back room game in play snd honesty, truth, and rule of law do not apply. Beyond that is speculation.

    So who is buggering whom in this giant Washington Circle of Buggery?

  19. E.M.Smith says:

    @Lars:

    I find RT useful in a few ways. The important thing is to remember it is The Official Story and will not conflict with Government.

    Given that, there are things you can harvest from it.

    1) The official POV on topics. What does The Kremlin approve? For things everyone else is covering, if missing, it is likely not approved by government.

    2) What is being fed to the Russian people? What does leadership think will be swallowed, and by what is missing: what do they think is too far a tale to tell.

    3) Exposure of our lies. This one takes vetting to distinguish their propaganda stories, but it can be an early list of possibles to vet. Sometimes has usable facts that prove out (remember Gary Powers?)

    4) Compare and contrast to other sources. Tends to show were the lies are hiding, from both sides (all sides?).

    BTW, I use basically the same process for ALL media. They all lie a lot and are full of errors. IF you exclude one side then you have a harder time finding the fraud in the remaining ones you choose to trust… Trust in any of them these days is an error. Best you can do is treat them as raw data to be confirmed later and bias one way to compare and contrast with their opposition. Or to put their POV on display to highlight their bias and potentially emotional state (at least, the one they are pushing..,)

    So if The Washington Post is pushing war hysteria, that tells you something about who wants war. I don’t need to know if their claims of Evil Other are true to know they are pounding the war drums.

    Similarly, I don’t need to know it RT is accurately describing the Odessa BBQ, to know they are pushing that narrative and think the Russian people will not call BullShit on it. They think it will sell, and that tells me what they think is the Russian attitude.

    Al Jazeera tells me what “sells” to their Muslim audience, and shows video from the other side of muslim involved wars. That doesn’t mean all their film is valid (“war atrocities” are often staged), but it does tell me they think their audience will believe it; and often the people act as though they did believe it, so has predictive value.

    Bssically, even lies can inform if used and evaluated correctly….

    Per Ukrainian:

    It is my understsnding that it is largely mutually intelligible with Russian. Has a few older forms, and spelling is a bit different. Rather like Old English vs modern American English. Ought not be too hard to swap. But I doubt it will be very important either way.

    Per Finland & Sweden and NATO:

    IMHO Poking the Bear is a poor way to calm it down. I don’t know if your security will be improved more by applying to NATO , or by appeasing Russia. I do know which is going to cause more paranoia in Russia. Good luck with that. I’m just glad I’m on the other side of the world from it. About as far from Russia as I can get while still in the USA. 3 directions are water, too ;-)

  20. philemon says:

    E.M.Smith says:
    7 May 2022 at 8:01 pm“even maybe Carter…”

    Trilaterals: everyone else does. ;)

    Actually, I found the admission by someone high up in the Carter administration, that they were shocked that Carter was not just paying lip service to talking points, but actually meant some of them, very revealing.

    Obama, on the other hand, seemed to be completely owned. Never saw a convincing birth certificate. His elevation to Senator did not pass the smell test either. And that U.S. voters would vote for somebody named “Barack Hussein Obama” ? After all the anti-Muslim fear-porn?

    It’s interesting that psychologists now include “freeze” in addition to “fight or flight” reflexes, but they don’t acknowledge the “freedom” reflex. It was actually a big deal, even among beagles. Well, if you were a researcher who was responsible for it. William E. Campbell and all.

  21. E.M.Smith says:

    Modulo some emotionally loaded spin wording, a quick skim of the Wiki page on the Odessa BBQ (which they call Odessa clashes – an example of differential spin wording) showed up nothing notably at odds with the RT article in terms of basic facts. I didn’t go through it number by number, name by name, and time stamp by time stamp; but it read like the same basic story to me. Wiki is not known for being pro Russia and anti EU… so I expect their spin to be antisence from RT.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Odessa_clashes

    If anyone wants to toss rocks at the RT version, please point out where it tells porkies on basic facts (we know everyone does differential emotional spin, so that isn’t relevant. In fact, the purpose of quoting it is to illusrate that emotional condition in RT). I have to go make dinner now….

  22. jim2 says:

    EMS – your hypothesis concerning the TLAs sounds plausible. But if that’s the case, the TLAs are getting very careless letting out the info the US is helping Ukraine kill Russian Generals and sinking their ships. That could turn out a lot worse than the Cuban missile crisis.

  23. H.R. says:

    @jim2 – the neocons and the TLAs in control of the gumbint want a hot war with Russia, but the are trying to provoke Russia into “firing the first salvo” so to speak.

    Putin isn’t buying it, which is why he’s shown remarkable restraint given the U.S, involvement and provocations.

    The only question in my opinion is who will blink first? Who will make the first direct fire aggressive move? The one who makes the first move loses the moral (moral,,, ha!) high ground and will be swimming upstream against World opinion.

  24. E.M.Smith says:

    One False Flag attack on EU or USA assets coming soon?

    What would be emotional enough, but not too really damaging?

    Maybe a shootdown of an airplane? Easy enough to make the pilot safe by bailing out… but not reslly eviceral enough…

    Maybe a tank unit shelling an EU position? Like in Poland? Easy enough to fake using Ukrainian Russian made tanks… Decorate with some Ukrainian casualties re-dressed as Poles. Call an Article 5? Poland is a sympathy play…

  25. jim2 says:

    I just sayin’, if the TLAs have been manipulating Presidents to avoid a nuclear war, what they hypothetically are doing now would negate that effort. Also, this is an uncontrollable Genie, the outcome wouldn’t be anything close to predictable. People who want to keep their power don’t do things that way, they like predictable. Doing it to “fight climate change” by killing off a bunch of people is also a non-starter. An nuclear war will alter the climate in ways CO2 could only dream of. None of it adds up.

  26. jim2 says:

    U.S. intelligence agencies are deeply concerned about a steady flow of leaks pointing to extensive assistance by the United States, helping Ukraine score some of its biggest victories of the war.

    On Thursday, several news outlets reported on assistance by U.S. intelligence agencies giving the Ukrainian military information on Russian units that have allowed Ukrainians to target and kill many of the Russian generals who have died in the war. Moscow has acknowledged at least 12 general officers were killed — more generals than died in World War II.

    For our VIPs: Don’t Be Surprised if Putin Tries to Make May 9 a Day That Will Live in Infamy

    Then on Friday, some blabbermouth told the Washington Post that the U.S. gave information to the Ukrainians that allowed them to sink the Moskva — the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet. The Biden administration is denying that such assistance was given — at least in every instance. But more worrisome than the deliberate provocation of killing high-ranking Russian general officers is the stupidity that someone is bragging about it.

    “It’s stupid, it’s unnecessary. There’s no upside, only downside,” a European official told Politico. “It looks like the Americans are trying to take credit for what the Ukrainians are doing.”

    https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/rick-moran/2022/05/07/u-s-spooks-cant-keep-their-mouths-shut-about-helping-ukraine-kill-russians-n1595988

  27. philemon says:

    https://alt-market.us/economic-world-war-who-benefits-and-how-much-time-is-left/

    Just another perspective. Lots of dystopian gloom and doom. But it’s all in good fun.

    Interesting that he didn’t include WWI in his retrospective on wars, Daddy Warbucks (Warburg) and all. Plus, hey, the Fed and income tax for the sinews of war, and the full faith and credit of U.S. taxpayers. Win-win for the bankers. They lend, and if the loans go bad, they get bailed out, but otherwise they make big profits, or both, if they hedge.

    He’s right that psychopaths can cooperate. They recognize one another. But, and it’s a big one, they also recognize that other psychopaths are the easiest marks to gull.

    So, yeah, the GEB would love some of that CBDC that they would control. Of course, it depends on who “they” are.

    In short it looks like this:

    1. Make people suspicious that GEB will seize their assets.

    2. Seize some peoples assets.

    3. Ask people to trust the GEB that their CBDC won’t make it even easier to seize/steal assets. (Yeah, right.)

    4. PROFIT!

    They can possibly get some Welfare people to go along with the UBI, but there’s no profit there. And those people aren’t interested in CBDC. Nor are most bankers.

    It’s like “Mars Invades”: Trust Us! We are your Friends! BLAM!

    @jim2: “None of it adds up.” You are right. It doesn’t.

  28. another ian says:

    Having another two bob’s worth

    “Klaus Schwab expounds on his role in the global governance of your life.”

    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2022/05/klaus-schwab-expounds-on-his-role-in-the-global-governance-of-your-life.html

  29. another ian says:

    “Guest Post: Speedbox -Postcard from Kislovodsk #2”

    https://newcatallaxy.blog/2022/05/09/guest-post-speedbox-postcard-from-kislovodsk-2/

  30. stewartpid says:

    Re : I’m just glad I’m on the other side of the world from it. About as far from Russia as I can get while still in the USA. 3 directions are water, too ;-)

    You got us crazed Canucks to the north and you know how dangerous we are when on a maple syrup fueled binge ;-)

    Some good posts here Chiefio and others …. thanks for sharing the info / thoughts / opinions.

  31. David A says:

    A early comment in this thread…”If Russia had merely moved in to protect the “Easterners” (as initially stated by Putin)”

    It appears clear to me that every US and NATO action is geared precisely to prevent Russia from doing a limited take over of the Russian areas of Ukraine. War is logistics, moving people, food and weapons to the point of conflict. If Russia ignores parts of Ukraine that it may truly have no interest in owning and being the government of, it will never secure those Russian dominate areas it feels it has a right to, as long as weapons food and people are perpetually channeled (through the rest of the Ukraine) to those geographic portions of Ukraine Russia is claiming to liberate.

    Putin must have a plan to make the west feel adequate pain to stop the perpetual Western fed supply lines. (currency wars, global supply lines for energy and food, etc…) Putin’s problem is the GEBs are insane. (Putin may not be, he may just not want the Russian people to be a part of the GEBs one World Government serfs) Yet the GEBs are insane, and the killing of large portion of the global population may not bother them. If “Evil Russia” can distract folk from contemplating the evil GEBs, and what they are doing with Covid, both the creation of it, and the response to it, and if they perceive Russian independence, to be an equal threat to their plans as Trump was – possibly is, then they will go to extreme measures to break Russia. Possibly the Western GEBs are now desperate, with many many nations no longer playing their Global Rule games.

  32. pinroot says:

    Thanks for the info dump EM. This thing is a lot more involved than “Russia bad” which is what the useless MSM has been pushing. And now, between the money we’re sending Ukraine (most of which will end up in Biden and friends pockets) and the apparent intelligence we’re providing them, what we’re doing could be considered acts of war if Russia was so inclined. There’s a reason you don’t poke the bear, and we’re poking pretty hard right now.

  33. philemon says:

    https://meaninginhistory.substack.com/p/stephen-mcintyre-doubles-down-on
    Wauck is a bit hypersensitive when it comes to Polish history. Steve calms him down, but the ensuing comment exchange is educational.

    Stephen McIntyre Doubles Down On Stupid
    Mark Wauck
    3 hr ago
    5
    8
    I’ve repeatedly explained that I take good information pretty much anywhere I can get it. That doesn’t mean that I agree with sources of good information on a specific topic who may also purvey basic untruths on other topics—although I do try to avoid such sources.
    Read →

    New First

    Deplorable Dave2 hr ago·edited 2 hr ago
    I understand Poland’s legitimate prejudice against Russia from the days of the USSR. But current Polish “leaders” don’t seem to care that the Russia-Ukraine turmoil is hundreds of years old, like a feud between the Hatfields and McCoys that erupts into war. It’s a fight only a maniacal idiot (or distant provocateur like the USA) would want to join.
    Reply

    piotr53 min ago
    Right, correctly you have put leaders in quotes. They have the same master as Zelensky. BTW. I do not know how is it in US, but all major propaganda web pages (like wp.pl or onet.pl) completely blocked commenting, otherwise there would be a lot of lies exposed…
    Reply

    Athena2 hr ago
    When I saw McIntyre’s tweet earlier, I was thinking-there were a lot of Jewish people killed in Poland during WW2, but they weren’t killed by the Polish government. I was glad to see you touch on this today.
    Reply

    Stephen McIntyreWrites Russiagate and Other Intel Anal… ·3 hr ago
    Mark, I mis-spoke and promptly removed tweet. What I intended to say and should have said was “Poland, the country in which the most Jews were murdered during Holocaust”. I was not intending to opine on Polish history, a topic that I haven’t studied and don’t purport to know.
    4Reply
    author
    Mark Wauck2 hr agoAuthor
    I get it, but Stephen, this is the second time you’ve written basically the same thing. It’s hard to see this second time as a mistake. Give this some thought–Poles are far and away the largest group honored at Yad Vashem, despite the fact that war time conditions in Poland were immeasurably more brutal than in any other country in Europe with regard to sheltering Jews. I know this first hand, having studied Polish at DLI with two Jewish teachers who survived the Holocaust in Poland, thanks to Poles who risked their lives:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Righteous_Among_the_Nations#Number_of_awards_by_country

    Regarding the liberating Red Army, it’s worth noting that two Polish armies made up 10% of the troops in the final Soviet offensive against Germany, and fought with distinction. Russian troops weren’t the only ones who stopped the holocaust:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Polish_Army_(1944–1945)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Army_(Poland)

    That contribution was made in spite of the Soviet attempt to decapitate Polish civil society with the massacre of 22,000 Polish officers.

    That’s also not counting the many Poles who fought with the Western allies in the Battle of Britain, North Africa, Italy, and across France:

    “Poland made the fourth-largest troop contribution in Europe,[131][132][133] and its troops served both the Polish Government in Exile in the west and Soviet leadership in the east. Polish troops played an important role in the Normandy, Italian and North African Campaigns and are particularly remembered for the Battle of Monte Cassino.[134][135] Polish intelligence operatives proved extremely valuable to the Allies, providing much of the intelligence from Europe and beyond,[136] and Polish code breakers were responsible for cracking the Enigma cipher.[e] In the east, the Soviet-backed Polish 1st Army distinguished itself in the battles for Warsaw and Berlin.”

    The Polish contribution to Ultra was arguably a game changer for the entire war–invaluable for the Battle of Britain and Battle of the Atlantic, and was used not only by the Western allies but was also provided to the USSR–crucially at the Battle of Kursk.

    One area in which I give Putin special credit is his willingness to recognize the complicated nature of Polish Russian relations and the fact that Russians committed great wrongs against Poland. That doesn’t mean Putin isn’t a Russian patriot, nor that he’s blind to Polish faults. However, he has consistently tried to offer a path forward.
    1Reply

    Stephen McIntyreWrites Russiagate and Other Intel Anal… ·2 hr ago
    I’ve scarcely ever mentioned Poles. I haven’t studied Polish issues. I certainly did not intend to wade into Polish historical issues that I haven’t studied. If I have made the same mistake twice, it’s not because I was firmly expressing a view, but because I made the same careless mistake twice.

    However, my understanding is that Ukrainian Banderistas did enthusiastically abet Holocaust. (And then murdered Poles equally enthusiastically). Without having studied the matter, I’ll accept your re-assurance that Poles behaved differently than Ukrainians in this respect.

    I am therefore surprised that so many Poles enthusiastically support a Ukrainian regime that honors Bandera and his collaborators. But I also understand that historical animosities in eastern Europe run deep.

    My main point – and the one on which I would prefer to be judged – is that, whatever the respective grievances of the various nations in eastern Europe, it will not help the resolution of these grievances for US (or Canada or UK) to send a tsunami of military weapons or to exacerbate fights rather than settle them.
    4Reply
    author
    Mark Wauck1 hr agoAuthor
    Unfortunately …

    The worst of what’s going on these days in re Ukraine–the military aspect–couldn’t be happening to such an alarming extent but for Poland’s misguided role. And that can only be understood from an historical standpoint. Again: Putin has a deeper understanding of all this than most, but his efforts at national reconciliation with Poland over the years have sadly come to naught. Also sadly, current Polish willingness to be guided by the US’s cynical manipulation of Ukraine–put on steroids by Jarosław Kaczyński’s virulent and very personal hatred for Russia–has played directly into the deepest anti-Polish sentiments of Russian ultra nationalists.

    I regard Polish sympathy toward Ukraine as almost entirely cynical and motivated by deep seated anti-Russian sentiment–not sympathy for Ukraine or Banderistas as such. Nor do I doubt that the feeling is reciprocated by most Ukrainians. That’s another complicated topic. Real Polish grievances from the WW2 era were suppressed and denied while Poland was dominated by the USSR during the Cold War period, and that accounts for the virulence of Polish anti-Russian sentiment that has only relatively recently been openly expressed. The fact that prominent Russian nationalists continue to deny such hot button Polish grievances as https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre#Legacy fuels Polish resentment.

    Public opinion in the US and, in fairness, much of Europe, is guided by an almost complete ignorance of the historical dynamics. Without that history the Neocon meddling would have no point of entry, but unfortunately the ignorance of these matters allows Neocons to manipulate public opinion. This ignorance also prevents the general public in the US/CA/UK from questioning the motivations behind the war on Russia.
    Reply

    Stephen McIntyreWrites Russiagate and Other Intel Anal… ·21 min ago
    expressed that way, I don’t think that we substantively disagree on very much. So I think that your editorial against me is a bit over-cooked, but I’ve endured worse. In respect to Ukraine controversy, as a Canadian, I am particularly annoyed by Canada’s failure to provide constructive middle power diplomacy in a dispute which Canada is perfectly positioned to provide constructive advice as a nation that has been wrought by two Quebec separation referenda and an understanding of the importance of constitutionally vesting Quebec language rights in order for Canada to exist. And allowing the debate to descend into facile and stereotyped yelling about “sovereignty” without coming to terms with Ukraine’s failure to implement Minsk accords and 8 years of low-grade by civil war by Kyiv regime on Donbas republics.
    Reply

  34. philjourdan says:

    @EM – Definitely follow Another Ian’s link to pointman. He is not always right, but he always has good points to make!

    Russia may be the bad guy. But one thing is for certain. Putin is running rings around the west. What the USSR could not do by conquest, Putin is doing by intelligence. But then an amoeba is smarted than the entire Biden administration. Including Kindergartener Harris.

  35. jim2 says:

    Looks like the royal families in Europe aren’t the only entities in-breeding. Entire countries there are!

  36. E.M.Smith says:

    @PhilJourdan:

    I generally follow every link posted, just to make sure none of it is SPAM or worse, if nothing else. Sometimes I’ll skip an obvious link (like a wiki link that’s clearly benign. Or where I already have read it.)

    But there are some sources that are Special. Where there’s a certain anticipation upon seeing the link. Knowing something good comes after the click. Pointman is one of those. Often read first when other links are left for later…

    @Philmon:

    Does look like Steve stepped in it due to limited awareness of Polish history. But the article shows a big over sensitivity to the error of “Poland killed” vs “killed in Poland by non-Poles or via the devices of invading powers”… Part of why I have avoided Twitter from the start is that the artificial limit on text length forces an artificial brevity of truth too… realty gets compressed and bent until it fits…

    @Jim2:

    Your comment here: https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2022/05/06/some-ukraine-russia-backstory/#comment-156631

    Makes an interesting distinction that most media does not. It talks of the loss of “general officers” while news headlines (and comments) that I’ve seen have just said “Generals”

    I’d seen the claim of “18 Russian Generals killed” and thought it sounded a bit bogus. A low priority “check someday” as you just don’t need many Generals to run a small war. But “general officers” is a different thing. That does make some sense. I think that is the clue to explain the Media error. Confounding Generals with “general officers”.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_rank#General,_flag,_and_air_officers

    Officers who typically command units or formations that are expected to operate independently for extended periods of time (i.e., brigades and larger, or flotillas or squadrons of ships), are referred to variously as general officers (in armies, marines, and some air forces), flag officers (in navies and coast guards), or air officers (in some Commonwealth air forces).

    General-officer ranks typically include (from the most senior) general, lieutenant general, major general, and brigadier general, although there are many variations like division general or (air-, ground-) force general.

    Flag-officer ranks, named after the traditional practice of showing the presence of such an officer with a flag on a ship and often land, typically include (from the most senior) admiral, vice admiral and rear admiral. In some navies, such as Canada’s, the rank of commodore is a flag rank.

    In the United Kingdom and most other Commonwealth air forces, air-officer ranks usually include air chief marshal, air marshal, air vice-marshal and air commodore. For some air forces, however, such as those of Canada, United States and many other air forces, general officer rank titles are used. In the case of the United States Air Force, that service was once part of the U.S. Army and evolved as a separate service in 1947, carrying over its extant officer rank structure. Brazil and Argentina use a system of general officer ranks based on the term brigadier.

    In some forces, there may be one or more superior ranks to the common examples, above, that are given distinguishing titles, such as field marshal (most armies of the world, notably excluding the United States) or general of the army (mainly the United States because “marshal” is used as a peace officer’s designation), fleet admiral (U.S. Navy), Marshal of the Royal Air Force, or other national air force. These ranks have often been discontinued, such as in Germany and Canada, or limited to wartime or honorific promotion, such as in the United Kingdom and the United States.

    So a whole lot more officer ranks…
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_officer

    A general officer is an officer of high rank in the armies, and in some nations’ air forces, space forces, and marines or naval infantry.

    In some usages the term “general officer” refers to a rank above colonel.

    So anyone above Colonel is possibly in the count..

  37. jim2 says:

    Yep, my impression is most Generals push game pieces around the Monopoly board.

  38. rhoda klapp says:

    Those surveillance aircraft can find a general anywhere. Russian generals have been going up to the front presumably to manage the situation when junior officers aren’t hacking it, maybe because they are allowed no independent action. When the general goes within artillery or drone range he is targetted. All in my humble opinion, my own military career was at a lower level.

  39. E.M.Smith says:

    @Rhoda:

    That’s the story being pushed. My point is that these are not Generals in the sense of “4 Star General” who commands whole theatre armies; but likely “General Officers” who normally command smaller units. Like a Brigade or Regiment.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brigade

    The typical NATO standard brigade consists of approximately 3,200 to 5,500 troops. However, in Switzerland and Austria, the numbers could go as high as 11,000 troops. The Soviet Union, its forerunners and successors, mostly use “regiment” instead of brigade, and this was common in much of Europe until after World War II.

    A brigade's commander is commonly a major general, brigadier general, brigadier or colonel. In some armies, the commander is rated as a general officer.

    So likely folks with title like “Brigadier General” commanding a few thousand troops in a few battalions. Guys normally found forward with their troops in a field HQ. But possibly even just a Colonel if treated as a “general officer”…

    That makes it more sane to have 18 of them kicking about in this small an operation.

  40. E.M.Smith says:

    Well this is a twist. From RT again. Why I like them. Not because I take it as God’s own truth, but because it tells me about stories before our lame controlled media gets their spin written. Then I can go looking for where the truth sits. More often RT has basic facts right, but with pro-Russia emotional spin. Most often western lame stream media has it all wrong or doesn’t cover it at all…

    This story basically says Ukraine is shutting off gas transit for bogus reasons. OK, I’m surprised gas is still transiting through a war zone. In any case, gas transit through Ukraine looks to be disrupted with consequences for Europe. That’s the bit I take from the article. The “who is pissing on whom” bit gets flagged as spin with truth TBD. But EU to have gas shortage is likely a fact.

    Kiev cites “force majeure” to halt a third of Russian transited gas flow to Europe, while Gazprom says there have been no issues that would justify the move

    Russian gas conglomerate Gazprom has received no confirmation of force majeure or any obstacles to continued transit of gas through a junction in Lugansk Region, the company said on Tuesday, after Ukraine’s operator OGTSU announced it would halt further deliveries starting May 11, due to the presence of “Russian occupiers.”

    Gas Transit Services of Ukraine (OGTSU) declared force majeure on Tuesday, saying that it was impossible to continue the transit of gas through a connection point and compressor station located in the Lugansk area. As OGTSU personnel “cannot carry out operational and technological control” over the Sokhranovka connector point and Novopskov compressor station, the company cannot continue to fulfill its contract obligations, it said. 

    Gas from this connection will not be accepted into the transit system of Ukraine starting at 7 am on Wednesday, OGTSU said. Sokhrankovka accounts for almost a third of the Russian gas that transits through Ukraine to Europe – up to 32.6 million cubic meters per day – according to the operators.

    Gazprom has received no confirmation of force majeure or disruption of operations at Sokhranovka or Novopskov, company spokesman Sergey Kupriyanov said on Tuesday. He added that Ukrainian specialists have had full access to both facilities all along, and there had been no complaints about it previously. 

    READ MORE: Ukraine’s Zelensky praises US, scolds EU
    Kupriyanov also said that Gazprom has been notified by Ukraine’s gas company Naftogaz that if Russia continues to supply gas through Sokhranovka, Kiev will reduce the volume at the point of exit by the same amount, effectively confiscating the gas.

    While OGTSU has proposed to reroute the gas to Sudzha, a connector located in the Sumy region and controlled by the Ukrainian government, Kupriyanov said this was “technologically impossible.” 

    “The distribution of volumes is clearly spelled out in the cooperation agreement dated December 30, 2019, and the Ukrainian side is well aware of this,” he said.

    Gazprom is fulfilling all of its obligations to its European customers, with all the transit services in accordance with the terms of the contract and paid in full, Kupriyanov pointed out. Moscow has continued gas deliveries to Europe, including transit through Ukraine, regardless of the ongoing military operation and the embargoes against Russia imposed by the US and its allies in the EU. 

  41. E.M.Smith says:

    So, having had RT point at a topic, a directed web search turned up a Yahoo story covering the same thing. It adds some interesting bits. Left out of the RT version is that the Eastern Donbass regions get their gas through the pumping station in dispute, and that Russia is in control of it.

    So merging those bits: Russia is obscuring their control of the station, while Ukraine is hiding their desire to starve Donbass of gas. Ukraine has legitimate concerns over Ukraine nationals entering a Russian zone of control; but Russia looks to be correct that there isn’t really anything stopping the gas from flowing. Both being a bit petty, but the Ukrainian agenda of starving Donbass of gas, plus saying they will take any that does enter the system (blatant theft) makes it look to me like Ukraine is the one creating a “crisis for effect”
    https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-operator-suspend-russian-gas-154935267.html

    Pavel Polityuk and Susanna Twidale
    Tue, May 10, 2022, 10:49 AM·3 min read
    By Pavel Polityuk and Susanna Twidale

    KYIV/LONDON (Reuters) -Ukraine said on Tuesday it would suspend the flow of gas through a transit point which it said delivers almost a third of the fuel piped from Russia to Europe through Ukraine, blaming Moscow for the move and saying it would move the flows elsewhere.

    Ukraine has remained a major transit route for Russian gas to Europe even after Moscow’s invasion.

    GTSOU, which operates Ukraine’s gas system, said it would stop shipments via the Sokhranivka route from Wednesday, declaring “force majeure”, a clause invoked when a business is hit by something beyond its control.

    But Gazprom, which has a monopoly on Russian gas exports by pipeline, said it was “technologically impossible” to shift all volumes to the Sudzha interconnection point further west, as GTSOU proposed.

    GTSOU CEO Sergiy Makogon told Reuters that Russian occupying forces had started taking gas transiting through Ukraine and sending it to two Russia-backed separatist regions in the country’s east. He did not cite evidence.

    The company said it could not operate at the Novopskov gas compressor station due to “the interference of the occupying forces in technical processes”, adding it could temporarily shift the affected flow to the Sudzha physical interconnection point located in territory controlled by Ukraine.

    Ukraine’s suspension of Russian natural gas flows through the Sokhranivka route should not have an impact on the domestic Ukrainian market, state energy firm Naftogaz head Yuriy Vitrenko told Reuters.

    The state gas company in Moldova, a small nation on Ukraine’s western border, said it had not received any notice from GTSOU or Gazprom that supplies would be interrupted.

    The Novopskov compressor station in the Luhansk region of eastern Ukraine has been occupied by Russian forces and separatist fighters since soon after Moscow began what it describes as a “special military operation” in February.

    It is the first compressor in the Ukraine gas transit system in the Luhansk region, the transit route for around 32.6 million cubic metres of gas a day, or a third of the Russian gas which is piped to Europe through Ukraine, GTSOU said.

    GTSOU said that in order to fulfil its “transit obligations to European partners in full” it would “temporarily transfer unavailable capacity” to the Sudzha interconnection point.

    Gazprom said it had received notification from Ukraine that the country would stop the transit of gas to Europe via the Sokhranivka interconnector from 0700 local time on Wednesday.

    The Russian company said it saw no proof of force majeure or obstacles to continuing as before. Gazprom added that it was meeting all obligations to buyers of gas in Europe.

    The United States has urged countries to lessen their dependence on Russian energy and has banned Russian oil and other energy imports in retaliation for the invasion of Ukraine.

    U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said Tuesday’s announcement does not change the timeline to lessen global dependence on Russian oil “as soon as possible.”

    (Reporting by Susanna Twidale and Pavel Polityuk; additional reporting by Nina Chestney in London, Daphne Psaledakis in Washington and and David Ljunggren in Ottawa;Editing by Alexander Smith, Cynthia Osterman and Rosalba O’Brien)

    In any case, looks lije a 1/3 hit to EU gas volumes. Hope the weather is warm…

  42. another ian says:

    E.M. – that looks to put a serious dent in the bag tally of generals

  43. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    Yup.

    I wonder, though, if it is a “stupid mistake” by journalism majors who don’t know a “general officer” is different from the rank of “General”. Or is it deliberate puffery by Editors to deliberately confound Brigadier General with Generals to try to make it look worse for Russia…

    It did sound bogus to me as “18 Generals” since I think Russia would notice and take corrective action had they lost a dozen Star rank Generals. But Brigade Command getting shelled is much more reasonable, as is losing a dozen general officers in a hot war and not being paralized by that. Plenty of Colonels to field ptomote to Brigade Commander and move on.

  44. philjourdan says:

    @EMS – I noticed your comments over there. My comment just was an emphasis, not meant to be a direction! Glad we travel in the same circles.

  45. Terry Jackson says:

    Updates on Ukraine/Russia:
    https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-11
    Looks legit, but … use your own judgement

  46. another ian says:

    “Good evening, Vietnam”

    https://thezman.com/wordpress/?p=27373

    And this sounds familiar –

    “But, to Greek writers, Xerxes – in real life no worse than most despots and better than some – was one of the world’s greatest villains because he had attacked Greece. Hence the writers were eager to blame him for thye misdeeds that he committed but also for many that he did not commit.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ancient_Engineers

  47. H.R. says:

    @Terry Jackson says:
    12 May 2022 at 1:42 am re latest on Russia advances & etc….

    Thank you very much! As you note, it’s probably (hell yeah! absolutely!) not exactly ‘correct’, but it is an indication of where things are as of that moment.

    I just have not been running across the ‘latest’, and that’s probably due to my Google-Fu deficiencies, so thanks again for that bit to ponder.

    ATM, I’m thinking that Uber-Goblin Putin doesn’t really want to ‘rule the World’. I’m not in the inner circle of Mr. Putin, but I think he is looking to accomplish much smaller beans than the YSM is painting his ambitions to be.

    YSM: “Need a boogie-man? Step right up! We have one right here, right now just oozing boogie-boogers to frighten the young, the old, the infirm, feeble-minded, women, and children alike. They will pee their pants, by golly!”

    May I present [drum roll………] Mr. Vladmir Putin!

    Let’s all give him a nice hand now, shall we?

  48. Reblogged this on The GOLDEN RULE and commented:
    An enlightening, fresh, comprehensive, truthful article.

  49. another ian says:

    Latest Pointman

    “THE UKRAINE WAR – RUSSIA MODIFIES ITS TACTICS.”

    https://thepointman.wordpress.com/2022/05/13/the-ukraine-war-russia-modifies-its-tactics/

  50. hunterson7 says:

    Actually a great article and comments. Sorry I have been gone so long.

  51. H.R. says:

    I don’t think anyone linked to this article over at CTH. It’s a short read, but the bottom line is that the best the U.S. can hope for is a stalemate after spending $60 billion or so, and possibly much more.

    That’s what we’re waging an expensive proxy war for; a stalemate.

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/05/14/the-pentagon-testified-assessing-ukraine-and-no-one-noticed/

  52. philemon says:

    A stalemate would be good.

  53. philjourdan says:

    No, we had a stalemate from 1945 to 1991. That was not good.

  54. p.g.sharrow says:

    I doubt that this war will stalemate. Putin is burning through hardware faster then Russia can replace it. The Ukrainians are slowly grinding down his Army, Western tactics and smart weapons against Warsaw Pact WWII tactics.
    Nearly 3 months ago Putin’s expeditionary Force was supposed to sweep to Victory over the Hated Western Nazis in 3 days. That Actor stand in was supposed to cut and run away at the threat from Putin’s vast RUSSIAN Military sweeping over a weak Ukraine National Guard. Surprise! Patriots armed with Smart weapons and Smart tactics have the upper hand against a poorly lead, Hired Army.
    Putin thinks he can jump up and down threatening the the little neighboring republics with mayhem if they join NATO Fool, the threats will force them to get behind the NATO Shield as the only way to Escape his “tender”grasp. Putin knows there is a way to prevent them from joining, He has used it many times in the past as he arose from KGB Colonel to Russian Compo. There is no Army of Western Nazis rampaging across Russia. The Great Patriotic War was over 75 years ago. The formatable Warsaw Pact military is now a shadow being propped up to scare old men. Putin is not the Dictator of the Soviet Communist State.He can not utilize Nuclear weapons unless there is an attacking army invading Russia.
    The Ukraine Military grows stronger and smarter while Putin’s is degraded. Russia will lose this little adventure and be required to recognize the Internationally set boundaries of Ukraine. NATO does not have to invade Russia to end their aggression, only bleed them until they quit.

  55. jim2 says:

    I get that the historical relations in Europe WRT Russia is more interwoven and complex than I will ever take the time to understand. OTOH, letting Russia wage war willy-nilly with no repercussions does not seem like a good idea. Sometimes, hope is all there is.

  56. jim2 says:

    I get that countries in Europe have historical issues that I will never take time to understand. However, letting Russia wage war with no repercussions doesn’t sound like a good idea. Sometimes hope is all you have.

  57. jim2 says:

    Oooops.

  58. E.M.Smith says:

    @Jim2:

    Sometimes “Not my issues” works better… IMO, this is a European issue and the Europeans ought to deal with it. Leave the USA out of it. The EU has plenty of money, military, and skill to do it on their own.

    Getting the USA involved just:

    1) Washes more of MY money through the Ukraine laundry.
    2) Puts a target on the USA if it all goes sideways (as it likely will)
    3) Damages the US $ as reserve currency

    Not seeing where any of those are in the interest of US Citizens.

    @P.G.:

    I would hope that you are correct, but I don’t know enough about internal Russian Politics to know. You assert Putin can’t use more military than a small expeditionary force, but he was also supposedly term limited a few cycles ago…

    What I do know is that he is a smart cookie and not particularly constrained by either moral compass nor legal niceties, and couple that with an aggressive winning drive, I can’t predict what he can and can’t do, nor will or won’t do.

    For example:

    I could easily see the “loss happening” in the north east of Ukraine being a deliberate retreat for the purpose of having Ukrainian military over run the Russian border. It would only take a mile or so for Putin to be able to say “Russia has been invaded” and have a whole different rule set.

    (No, I do not expect that; but like I said, I can’t predict the man well enough to know.)

    Then the other problem is just that we have no reliable data. At All.

    HOW do we know the Russian Army is having terrible losses and being degraded? I only see one side in the news reports and that’s one which brought us the Ghost of Keiv (or whatever his name was) along with recycled photos from years gone past claiming they were new.

    For all I know, Putin has taken the Ethnic Russian areas he cared about and is just busy locking down ownership and control, ignoring the rest of Ukraine.

    Given the information available (i.e. nearly nothing reliable) either could be the case. A few photos of some tanks can be photoshopped (or even could be Ukrainian tanks as both used Russian gear, I think…) We do know one ship was sunk, and it was one slated to be scrapped, hauled back from the scrap list, then relisted for scrapping “soon”. Yes “flagship” with storied history, but also well worn and planned for scraping. So was it even in full fighting trim? I don’t know…

    IMHO, all we can really know is that when the fighting is over and done, we will know who won, and maybe 20 years from now we’ll get some details… Until then, it will be lying propaganda from The West vs lying propaganda from Russia…

  59. jim2 says:

    Europe can’t even manage their own fuel supplies. Just sayin’. That said, I certainly understand the desire to let it be.

  60. Terry Jackson says:
  61. E.M.Smith says:

    Why I’m skeptical of “Ukraine Wining!!” Reports… seems they are doing it with paintball guns, per the photo…
    https://www.dailywire.com/news/not-the-best-look-reuters-report-on-ukraine-driving-russian-soldiers-out-includes-glaring-photographic-mistake

  62. another ian says:

    Some more backstory – FWIW

    “Escobar: Death By A Thousand Cuts – Where Is The West’s Ukraine Strategy?”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-death-thousand-cuts-where-wests-ukraine-strategy

    “At Least 300 Azov Fighters Surrender To Russians At Azovstal Plant, Ending Lengthy Siege”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/military/least-300-azov-fighters-surrender-russians-azovstal-plant-ending-lengthy-siege

    Both via Jo Nova

  63. jim2 says:

    Yep. If Ukraine is what winning looks like, I’ll continue to lose ;)

  64. philemon says:

    Having been a Kremlin watcher back in the day, you knew when somebody died because they played Chopin.

    Forbes7 hr ago
    Facts inconvenient to The Narrative will always be ignored.
    combat mission = hiding in retreat
    evacuated = surrendered
    battle over = battle lost

    The customers have become cagey. “They” are fighting a rear-guard movement to restrict information after the horse has left the barn.

    C’mon, who still believes the Kennedy assassination was a “lone nut”?

  65. another ian says:

    An expression used here for directing dirt with a shovel is “shooting”

    The YSM on Ukraine brings to mind a version of that, which is

    “Couldn’t shoot sh-i-t with a shovel”

  66. another ian says:

    “Quick tell the investors: Twitter is a kindergarten for communists, not there to make profits”

    https://joannenova.com.au/2022/05/quick-tell-the-investors-twitter-is-a-kindergarten-for-communists-not-there-to-make-profits/

    And comments

  67. Taz says:

    This crap gets repeated ad-infinitum, and it comes from both sides. As far as I’m concerned, Russia lost any expectation for sympathy (and there once was plenty) the moment they crossed the border. You don’t argue with invaders – you kill them.

    Watch some Russian state TV and then tell me it was all a “meanie west conspiracy”.

    Next you’ll be telling me it’s not a good idea to gun down shoplifters in San Francisco? Yer just gonna hafta shed that California mindthink boss…. it WILL rot your brain.

    An alternate view? Send all those invaders home in bags and simply advise Russia that if they ruin our land with cobalt bombs – we’ll take theirs. ALL OF IT! West Alaska!

  68. philjourdan says:

    @Taz – the crap is only coming from one side. The Globalist side. They have banned all things Russian. Until Russia Surrenders or Nukes the world, I will not believe a god damn thing the western fake news media says! Period.

    They have not reported any news in over 14 years! Why is ANYONE thinking they have started doing it now? Because even conservative commontators are morons!

    Just my 2 cents.

  69. E.M.Smith says:

    @Taz:

    Some important things to keep in mind in order to avoid error in understanding me.

    1) I have no “sympathy” in any investigation. Sympathy is for things with feelings. Puppies, cats, children,… it is not applicable to countries, leadership, history, logic problems, understanding processes.

    2) I am only driven to understand the motivations of The Other so as to predict them better. Understanding of THEIR feelings and motivations is NOT endorsement nor agreement. Nor does it imply ANY feeling on my part. I’m mostly an emotional void. (My coffee going cold this morning had a stronger emotional response than whatever happened in Ukraine or Russia today, despite knowing some folks must have died). Most any application of any emotional filter to my investigational musings will error out badly. (Music videos and meals / drinks do have emotional content.) I can actually feel the emotional centers shut off as I go all “cold fish” during investigations. Creepy some times, actually. Its like I can flip on a “functionality sociopath” detachment. Only finding truth matters.

    3) Given the much longer history of Crimea and Donbass as part of Russia AND the Russian ethnic population AND the actions by non-Russian Western Ukraine to erase their culture: it does raise a valid legal, moral, and ethical question. Is that act of military intervention: A) invading the foreign country of Ukraine, or is it B) Russia defending Russians on historically Russian land? One is the EU / Western Ukraine POV, the other is the Russian POV. I can see both. I lean a tiny bit to the Russian POV on this question, but mostly because Ukraine shelled civilians in the Donbass, and Crimea WAS illegally given to Ukraine in violation of USSR / CCCP Law. I don’t have a stong commitment to any postion on it and would love to see it debated. Most importantly, Ignoring that divide will result in not understanding your opponent. A grievous error. You choose to pick a side, and act violently on it. Also an error if you want understanding of the conflict.

    4) San Francisco is unrelated and orthogonal. A distractor of no merit. Irrelevance does not improve understanding. Another error.

    5) I have no “California mindset”. I have a “me mindset” that is very unlike pretty much everyone I ever met in California. I am mostly an un-emotive logic engine working to find understanding and order from chaotic information flows. Few in California are 99.9+ percentile and conservatives. I don’t “care about” Russia, Russians, Ukraine, Ukranians, nor the destruction both are doing in this process. I feel sorry for the innocents on both sides, but there is zero I can do about it, which makes it an irrelevancy; and set aside. I can improve my predictive ability for Ukraine & Russia by understanding their histories and POVs, so that ends up being my “motivation”. I care about avoiding stupid errors being made by emotionally predicting Russian actions badly and potentially starting W.W.III via idiotic meddling in a Family Fued we don’t understand from historical ignorance (A VERY common USA mode of failure…)

    5) I’m a Floridian now, much more at home than I ever was in California. I no longer must hide my beliefs at work, in discussions at the pool, with neighbors…

    6)”When two tigers fight, one of them is killed and the other is grievously wounded”. Pick a fight with Russia and the winner will be China… Europe is well practiced at having America fight others for them. Holding our coat while we spend blood and treasure. It almost made sense when they were close to conflicts and we were too far away to effectively strike at. Now it is largely just exploiting American largesse and stupidity. ONE nuclear submarine can destroy utterly most major cities on the East Coast. 3 can do the whole country. We have no ability to stop them post launch.

    7) “The fight you win is the one you avoid”.

    8) Your approach would not yield West Alaska, but North Western China and North American China. With both Russia and the USA destroyed, China walks 300,000,000 people into each of them and it is over.

    9) Think, do not emote, if you would gain understanding.

  70. another ian says:

    FWIW

    “TRUDEAU’S BOY ISN’T ALONE—A U.S. ADMIRAL, A GENERAL, A BRITISH LT. COLONEL AND NATO BRASS ALSO SURRENDERED IN MARIUPOL”

    https://richardsonpost.com/howellwoltz/27054/western-leaders-tied-to-ukraine-bioweapons-labs/

    Proverbial in fan if this is right

  71. another ian says:

    Via India

    “Biden’s fascination for Ukraine did him in”

  72. Another Ian

    There are no currently serving UK officers fighting in the Ukraine. They are mercenaries who after leaving the army sign up for money adventure or a cause.

    Russia has many tens of thousands of them from Chechnya and Syria

  73. another ian says:

    Re E.M.Smith says:
    17 May 2022 at 12:43 pm

    I guess that is what you might call “painting a scene”?

    Like that “bomb damage picture” advertising Ukrainian “bomb proof glass and stucco”

  74. Power Grab says:

    @ another ian re “painting a scene”

    Yeah. It struck me as a scene from a street drama. When you put on live drama, sometimes you have to use a sorry substitute for real action. It depends on how much money/creativity you have. ;-)

    Most of my involvement with drama has been as the musician, but once in a while I direct, write, or do a walk-on scene. So I have a bit of appreciation for how much it costs to really stage a production.

    I avoid the most current productions/TV/movies like the plague. I always feel gypped…maybe excepting the Hallmark Channel. ;-)

    I never used to watch “Murder, She Wrote” back when it was new, but I try to catch it more nowadays because of the production values. While modern shows tend to shove the camera right in the face of the actors while using a background of darkness or smoke, in MSW they often went on location and you got to enjoy the settings as much as the story. And when they blew up a car, THEY BLEW UP A CAR! None of that CGI stuff back then. However, in the mid-1980s when they made the show, they did have an episode where a vehicle was controlled remotely. I was surprised to see that done that far back.

    Then there was a Sunday night timeslot where certain movie-of-the-week productions were shown. One series I enjoyed was “Search”. There was also “McLoud” and “McMillan and Wife”. During the Search shows, the lead actor had been fitted with internal/external devices that allowed him to interact with the home office, half way around the world. The camera they wore was a little round thing they could wear on a ring or as a pendant. It had a microphone built in as well, I think. But they had something embedded in their head that allowed them to hear the voices coming from HQ. It also could detect their vital signs. Looking back at those shows, it makes me think of what they’re trying to do now, to get everyone so they’re on the IOT, but without a device. Or maybe just using a Neural Link. Of course, I’ve been reading about a self-assembling internal antenna for the last two years. Has anyone else been seeing talk about that?

    I’ve got the DVDs for that series. When I started watching them, one of the shows was about how serious it was that a politician’s medical records had been stolen and might be leaked. It was a huge issue. They built the whole show around it. Of course, now we have HIPAA, but everybody and their puppy dog spills their guts on the web about their health issues.

  75. philemon says:

    @Power Grab says:“However, in the mid-1980s when they made the show, they did have an episode where a vehicle was controlled remotely. I was surprised to see that done that far back.”

    Hopscotch! did it. Very loosely based on Philip Agee’s book, Inside the Company: CIA Diary.

    Trivia: Patricia Tallman was Angela Lansbury’s stunt double.

    The CIA has been selling “mind-control” in some form or another for over fifty years. No, they have not finally figured it out. Sorry guys, no can do.

  76. H.R. says:

    Loved “Hopscotch” with Walter Matthau!

    I’ve seen it 3 or 4 times. The plot is 1st rate, and Matthau is absolutely brilliant.

    Now THAT is entertainment!

  77. YMMV says:

    “The CIA has been selling “mind-control” in some form or another for over fifty years.”

    Fifty years ago would put it at about when hippies made weed mainstream. Who knows what other drugs the CIA tried, but you could connect some dots from then to now, as the anti-establishment culture became established and then establishment and then progressed to being dystopian, all-in mind control woke culture.

  78. cdquarles says:

    In a way, it is sad to see the demonization of drugs. Weed wasn’t illegal in the US until 1934. Opiates roughly 10 years before that. Drugs are not bad. Intoxication is bad. Back in the 1920s, several militaries used various amphetamines, which when properly dosed and monitored, did enhance, temporarily, some abilities. Anti-drug propaganda has been around at least a century now.

  79. philemon says:

    @E.M.Smith says: “I can actually feel the emotional centers shut off as I go all ;cold fish’ during investigations. Creepy some times, actually. Its like I can flip on a ‘functionality sociopath’ detachment. Only finding truth matters.”

    Eh, well, you’r not a psychopath. They can’t flip it on. They also think that they are superior to normal people, and they’re not into truth. They’re weird Gawd-help-us-is who think all truth is a lie, but they think they’re above it.

  80. philjourdan says:

    @EMS – anal retentive moment – you actually have 10 points for Taz – you have 2 5s.

  81. YMMV says:

    “it is sad to see the demonization of drugs”

    Demonization can backfire. It’s supposed to prevent people from trying, but people being people, some will, and they will report back from the other side, with the result that the demonizers’ cred is shot.

    It was pretty obvious back then that comparing the wickedness of weed and the evil of alcohol, that alcohol was far more dangerous. There was the famous LaGuardia report, which I read once upon a time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Guardia_Committee
    It concluded that marijuana is not addictive and is not a gateway drug to morphine, heroin, or cocaine, but it didn’t change anything. (I suspect it did not mention MJ being a gateway drug to tobacco, but then almost everybody was a smoker)

    At that time, marijuana was sort of like Ivermectin is now. Demonize something but ignore the demons.

    Like prohibition, banning something does not reduce the desire. Supply and demand still rules.

  82. another ian says:

    “Col Douglas Macgregor Delivers an Update on Ukraine from a Perspective Western Media Cannot Dare Advance
    May 19, 2022 | Sundance | 4 Comments”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/05/19/col-douglas-macgregor-delivers-an-update-on-ukraine-from-a-perspective-western-media-cannot-dare-advance/

    Interesting bit about that “ceasefire discussion”

  83. Power Grab says:

    @ HR:
    I just ordered the DVD for that movie. The trailer looked great!

    Thanks for the tip. :-)

  84. Power Grab says:

    @ EM:
    Yep, that’s the one!

  85. philemon says:

    @Power Grab says:
    “Yep, that’s the one!”

    My only problem with that movie is the quintessential, “What about the dog?” Was he still in quarantine after the move to the UK, or did they re-home him? Dobermans are sensitive souls.

    And further Sitrep on the Ukrainian situation: https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/05/ukraine-sitrep-russians-break-through-us-bolsterism.html#more

  86. H.R. says:

    @Power Grab – I read the info/reviews at the imbd link the E.M. posted. I seem to recall that they made a version of the movie with some of the profanity scrubbed. I must have seen that version because I don’t recall any profanity.

    I hope it’s the DVD version. I know you don’t have virgin ears, but I also know you don’t appreciate gratuitous profanity.

    Mom raised us kids to not use profanity. She maintained that swearing was intellectually lazy and showed a lack of a creative mind… and a potty mouth is unbecoming. I found that to be true. If I catch myself cussing, I know that I am frustrated and not thinking. It stops me in my tracks, and I have a laugh at myself. Then I start to think again about hove to solve the mess I am facing, sans the cussing. Oh, there are times when only a nasty epithet will do, but that’s usually reserved for politicians ;o)

    Regardless of the version you get, you’re in for a treat. It is very funny as well as a being a clever tale.

    I’m going to see if it’s out there in Streaming Land somewhere so I can watch it again.

  87. E.M.Smith says:

    @H.R,:
    I think it is on Prime.

  88. Power Grab says:

    @ HR:
    Thanks for the comments. You’re right about my ears not being virgin, but we were raised to avoid using profanity. One time my sibling told me about a conversation between my mom and dad. Dad must have been trying to do something that wasn’t going well, so he used some “expletives-deleted”. My mom asked him, “Do you want the kids to talk like that?” I reckon the answer was “No”, and I almost never heard him use profanity the rest of his life.

    Also, back in those days, even TV was practically free of it, at least during prime time. In fact, my dad used to make up words to use instead of commonly-known profanity. So we got the benefit of additional creativity when it came to unusual words while one was under stress.

    I didn’t even read books containing significant profanity until I was a freshman in college. I was shocked at myself–SHOCKED, I SAY–when such a word came out of my own mouth. The occasion was when a fellow student who was a bit of a hanger-on in our clique showed up unexpectedly at my dorm room door. He knocked, and when I opened it, he was standing there with a camera in front of his face, ready to take a picture. I wasn’t in a presentable condition to have my picture taken, so I said (expletive-deleted) and slammed the door in his face. I immediately felt remorse and tried to figure out where that word had come from. We were studying “A Clockwork Orange” in one of my classes, and it was full of gratuitous profanity. So then and there I decided that, whenever I was exposed to profanity in books or entertainment, I would bleep it out of my mind. I even invented a protocol to use if it is vile enough and tends to stick in my mind in spite of my knee-jerk cleansing reaction.

    Regarding the movie, I read some reviews. One of them mentioned how little objectionable material it had, but it had been rated PG. They said that these days, it probably wouldn’t have been given anything but G, even with the profanity. So that made me think it wouldn’t require a huge effort on my part to bleep out the profanity, etc.

  89. cdquarles says:

    A story, he he. Way back in the 60s, children could and did, mostly, get punished by any adult that heard a child use “bad words” whether at home or in public. If in public, a random adult could and would smack you then tell your folks at home, where you got another one. That really kept that stuff at bay. Still, I was walking along a road and heard a two year old swear worse than any military vet I knew. That family was shunned. That poor child heard nothing but those words and was repeating them (in their house, mind you and not outside).

    If a broadcast had to quote certain words, they were bleeped out (the stations used a tape delay system to do it, so ‘live’ wasn’t truly live). Station broadcast licenses were on the line and the general public could file complaints.

  90. Power Grab says:

    @ cdquarles:
    That story matches what I grew up with. I don’t know anyone who got their mouth washed out with soap, but that was a common threat in those days.

    By my second year of college, things were changing…I guess. I tend to think it wasn’t just a case of my perceptions changing. The year after I graduated high school a year early, they removed the bathroom doors, including stall doors IIRC. I had returned for what would have been my graduation, and was amazed at the lack of privacy in the bathrooms. The story I heard was that they were trying to prevent students from hanging out in the bathrooms to smoke.

    I changed colleges between my first and second years. At my second college, I ended up being assigned to a dorm that had been an all-guys dorm the year before. They had planned to close one wing for renovation, but ended up having to open it to women at the last minute because so many women were applying to live on campus. I waited really late to apply for housing, so I ended up in the previously-all-guys dorm. As it turned out, I lived on the same floor of the same wing as my favorite old boyfriend had lived the previous year. His old room number was only 10 away from my room number.

    It was really a hoot to see his reaction at seeing me moving into his old dorm wing. My mom and I were taking my stuff into my dorm, when my old boyfriend drove by in his distinctive convertible. It looked like he did a quadruple-take when he saw who I saw moving into his old dorm. He had no idea that I was changing schools. We hadn’t kept in touch.

    So there were two wings where guys lived, and one wing where girls lived. I noticed one day while sitting in the lobby, there was more profanity in the speech of the girls who passed by than in the speech of the guys. Who knew?

  91. H.R. says:

    I’ve told this one before, but for those who may have missed it….

    Mom, who brooked no cussing, not even ‘bywords’ like shoot or heck,, was busy-busy with some chore. My 15 or 16-year-old smartass self walked in and asked, “Mom, what starts with ‘F’ and ends in ‘UCK’?”

    She immediately stopped what she was doing and the color and her anger was rising in her face so strong, I thought she was going to take me out and have to make a replacement kid for me. I was a dead man walking.

    I yelled, “Firetruck, mom! Firetruck!”

    Well, that stopped her. She knew she had been had and laughed after being so mad she would have brained me. But she told me never to pull another one on her like that again.

  92. philemon says:

    @Power Grab says: “I don’t know anyone who got their mouth washed out with soap, but that was a common threat in those days.”

    I do. Poor kid was seriously abused. Grandma didn’t like her because she was the daughter of son’s first wife, whom she obviously hated. Older brother was exempt because 1) he was a boy, and 2) her son was partial to his son.

    If it had been fashionable back then, the poor kid would have been masked 24/7.

    Words are just words. Some are appropriate at some times and not at others.

    “It’s only in Shakespeare that characters piss.”

    But I can tell you, the Navy officers who were assigned to Bogart and Bacall’s yacht, to make sure they weren’t lost at sea, heard some things their previous four years in the Navy hadn’t prepared them for.

  93. H.R. says:

    Mrs. H.R. found a channel that had Hopscotch on it and we just finished watching. And yes, as I remembered it, it’s a good’un.

    This time, it was the full ‘R’ version and I had to laugh. It is so tame compared to today’s over-the-air network TV. If they’d cut three words, it would get a PG13 rating, if that.

  94. Jon K says:

    This piece has some reliable reporting on the current conflict IMHO.

    https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/05/putin_is_fighting_the_war_he_chooses.html

  95. Power Grab says:

    @ HR and Philemon:
    Thanks for the comments. So sorry for the poor girl whose grandma abused her. :-(

    And, HR, that firetruck story is a keeper! I’m going to add it to my little black book of keepers links, thoughts, and special stuff. It’s a new thing. I work on so many computers and devices that I have trouble keeping track of where I’ve stashed stuff. The last thing I would want to do is put it somewhere in the cloud.

    Why, at work, we have 2 or 3 cloud-based places we’re supposed to use for sharing documents, but half the time when you put something out there and think you’ve given folks access to it, they can’t get to it. At least that’s how it works for me. And I’m an old hand with old-fashioned Novell networking. When I have need of a place to regularly share files with other departments, I say, “Just give me a directory I can map a drive to. Then my programs can just dump the data there when the program is finished running.” Sweet!

    At our next sibling event, I’m going to share that firetruck story. I think it will be well received! I can’t wait! :-)

  96. philjourdan says:

    @EM – Not on Prime per se (Hopscotch), but one of its channels. Signed up for the free 7 day preview and watched it last night. It was a fun movie! Nice to see Sam Waterson really was young once!

    The channel is Shout! Factory TV. Not enough on it to pay $3/month though.

  97. H.R. says:

    @Power Grab – I know I’ve posted that anecdote at least twice before, and yet somehow you have missed it all this time. I thought maybe some newbies had never heard my old-geezer repeated story. Well, I was really surprised to find you had missed it because you’re a long-timer.

    Go ahead. If your extended family has similar moral convictions to yours, you should all get a laugh out of that one, particularly if you pull it off all innocent-like.

    Power Grab: “Gee. I dunno. Help me out here. I’m stuck. What possibly could start with ‘F’ and end in ‘UCK’?”

    It’s even funnier if you had known my mom. Over the time her life and mine overlapped, I heard maybe a half-dozen uses of ‘hell’ and ‘damn’ from her lips, and they were in context and biblically appropriate. She was firmly in the “spare the rod and spoil the child” camp, so I knew that if I didn’t pull that one off, there would be major pain and suffering on my part. But I couldn’t resist 😉😁

    For those that don’t cuss or swear, it really is a funny bit of leg-pulling, innit? Hey… my mom let me slide on it.

  98. H.R. says:

    @philj – Glad you chased down “Hopscotch” and saw it.👍👍

    It really is a fun movie. It does not insult your intelligence, I don’t know what version you got, but I think that nowadays, the original ‘R’ version is so tame that nobody bothers with the cleaned up version.

    Was that the first time you had seen it? I’d think that at some point, you’d at least caught it once in the ’80s or ’90s. If it managed to slip by you back when, I’m glad you caught it and enjoyed it now.

    I’m waiting for Power Grab’s review after she gets the DVD and has a chance to prop up her feet and watch it.

  99. Power Grab says:

    I just got the mail today. I thought the DVD might be in it. No such luck.

    I get to practice my patience some more. ;-)

    But I did get the piano music book of Brazilian Bossa Novas. :-D You’re supposed to play it with the included CD. I haven’t done much playing with a CD. I think it will be a fresh challenge.

    Playing off a fully-written arrangement is what I’m most experienced at. But 5 or so years ago I ended up playing with the praise band from chord charts. That’s pretty much all improvisation. It feels like I’m using a different part of my brain.

    Oh, and it will be interesting to see how well my 115+ year old Ivers and Pond piano is in tune with the CD…

  100. E.M.Smith says:

    As further example of the use of opposition media: The reason I read opposition news is not to agree with it, but because it illustrates points our media ignores.

    The Clinton NATO adventure in Serbia is still causing ripples. But what interested me in this story is that entry to NATO includes legal immunity for NATO. Can I get that deal?

    Then, the justification for the bombing was “ethnic conflict”. Might this be the reason GEB’s Minnions try so hard to create “ethnic conflict” between races, religions, etc? To get cart blanche to bomb anyone not in line with their agenda (and do it without legal consequences…)?

    Two new lawsuits were filed with the High Court in Belgrade on January 20.

    “In its statement to the court, the NATO Liaison Office in Serbia indicated that it had full immunity under the jurisdiction of Serbia,” Aleksic said, noting that immunity was granted to the alliance on the basis of the agreement with the Union State of Serbia and Montenegro “On transit participation and support for peacekeeping operations” (dated from 2005), as well as in accordance with the agreement from 2006.

    However, it is impossible to apply the law retroactively, the lawyer stressed. Therefore, NATO can not be granted immunity under the agreement that had been signed several years after the bombings.

    The bombings in question were carried out as part of Operation Allied Force under NATO’s auspices against the then Yugoslavia. The reason for international intervention was the inter-ethnic conflict between Albanians and Serbs in Kosovo.

    https://english.pravda.ru/news/world/152059-nato_serbia_bombings/

    I would not have known about the legal happenings, nor NATO immunity clauses nor remembered the “ethnic conflict” justification. But having those points raised, my thoughts look at them in our current context.

    But note: The main emotional goal of the article, to get me sympathetic to Serbia, or peeved about the bombings, has failed. Simply because the past is long past and I don’t do the emotional loading thing. I’m just looking for interesting facts or data.

  101. philemon says:

    More fun. It’s got everything! Putin, Ukraine, WEF, and clot shots:

    https://edwardslavsquat.substack.com/p/is-putin-fighting-to-stop-the-clot

    In re Hopscotch: Remember that C U Next Tuesday Meyerson had tapes locked away on “all of ’em” and “they” were scared to death of him. ;)

  102. philjourdan says:

    @HR – re: Hopscotch

    Yes and then I drove 600 miles for a meeting (up and back). left at 4:30, got back at 9:30pm! So had to unwind. Decided to watch Fitzwilly (Starring Dick Van Dyke and Agent 99 – if that stumps you read no more!)

    And what to my tired eyes do appear, but a 1967 Sam Waterson! Would not have even noticed him had you not told me about Hopscotch! And that was 1980!

    Should you have a chance to watch Fitzwilly, it is a fun movie with Dick Van Dyke and Barbara Eden (Agent 99). Rollicking good show and it has a younger (67 versus 80) Sam Waterson!

  103. H.R. says:

    I don’t recall ever seeing Fitzwilly. I’ll put that on the list. It seems that every movie is now available for streaming somewhere online.

    BTW, I think it’s Barbara Feldon, not Eden.

  104. jim2 says:

    There’s a movie I want to watch again, but can’t find it anywhere: Middle Age Crazy.

  105. Ossqss says:

    Ya know (spell check told me to use Knows), I had a wandering thought. It was quite odd that the push for EV’s pretty much coincided with chip shortages for pretty much every automaker. IIRC, 90% come from S. Korea? Somebody fact check me. LOL, I don’t do other social media…

  106. H.R. says:

    Watching Fitzwilly now. No I had not seen it. Yes. It is good ol’ Hollywood entertainment.

    The automobiles are a hoot. They are contemporary to when the film was shot. For those of us who love the ’60s automobiles, it’s great to watch the street scenes and spot ‘new’ old cars.

  107. philjourdan says:

    ARRGGHHHH!!! Sorry, I dream of Genie, but yes it is Feldon, not Eden! Freudian slip!

  108. philjourdan says:

    @jim2 – YES! Middle Aged Crazy! Bruce Dern (in his first good guy role) and of course the heart throb of every man our age – Ann Margaret!

    I use that phrase “I do not want to be the ‘daddy'” to this day! I am the oldest male on both sides of my family (father and mother) And shun being the “Daddy”!!!!

    And it is pronounced Por-SHA. :-)

  109. jim2 says:

    RE: MAC. As I recall, the speech to the graduating class was hilarious to me at the time. I’ve looked all over for the movie, but it doesn’t seem to be available anywhere. BINGO!

  110. H.R. says:

    @jim2 – Your mention of the speech to the graduating class jogged my memory. I have seen MAC, but I don’t remember it well. I’ll add that one to my list to hunt down.


    BTW, when I mentioned Fitzwilly to Mrs. H.R., she asked me how to spell it. I was making a comment here and when I looked up, Fitzwilly was already up on the screen and playing. I’m pretty sure she can come up with MAC.

  111. Ossqss says:

    Here ya go if it works.

  112. jim2 says:

    Thanks for that Ossqss. My wife and I just watched it. It ain’t exactly “woke.” There were some parts that were still funny to me, but in today’s “woke” age, I can see why it’s not on Prime!

  113. philjourdan says:

    Prime is not woke – Yet! Netflix is. Thanks for the video Ossqss! As I said, anyone our age has a crush on Ann Margaret! And Bruce Dern was totally likable in this one.

  114. philjourdan says:

    As evidence, search Netflix for John Wayne Movies – Nada because of the quote from him (out of context). At least Prime has some of his movies. Screw netflix! They are trash anyway.

  115. jim2 says:

    In MAC, there was a joke concerning Hispanics. But I believe it would be a joke that Hispanics could see as a joke on an old, white, dead man. Depends on how you see it, I guess. But still, a good movie overall. I certainly can say “I am the future!” ;)

  116. Ossqss says:

    Here ya go, a return of the Mack>

    As close I my playlist got :-)

  117. Ossqss says:

    And a distraction from all the crap! >

  118. philjourdan says:

    With great movies, that appeal to the real people just not the snobs of the left, we each have a take away from it. For Jim2, it was a joke concerning hispanics. for me, it was becoming the “Daddy”. I missed the joke, but then playing the female lead was Ann Margaret! Cut me a break! :-)

  119. jim2 says:

    The Hispanic related joke wasn’t the highlight, I was just pointing out the lack of “wokness.” Kind of refreshing. I still found the commencement speech funny, and other parts as well.

  120. philjourdan says:

    Blazing Saddles! Ever seen that one? Cleavon Little! And Gene Wilder. Best movie ever! But todays woke would call Cleavon the N word! Because they are racist bigots!

  121. H.R. says:

    @philj – Who hasn’t seen Blazing Saddles? That’s the real question.

    The beans around the campfire scene… Mongo, “Mongo just a pawn in game of life.” Too many other classics to mention.

  122. David A says:

    It appears the Ukraine is winning propaganda spiel has expired as the MSM is admitting to breakdowns in every front. Apparently…
    Russia has gained:
    80% of oil and gas fields
    Most refineries and large oil depots
    Fields for sowing
    Coal mines
    Four major ports
    A significant part of nuclear and a significant part of coal generation
    Oil and gas fields on the Black Sea shelf
    Metallurgical plants in Mariupol and Krivoy Rog
    Almost completely destroyed the Ukraine national military-industrial complex

  123. E.M.Smith says:

    @David A:

    Yup.

    The “Russia didn’t win in a day so is losing badly” meme ignores that Putin / Russia might be playing chess and not having a tantrum.

    One example:

    Fixing maneuvers. In the early days, Russian troops from Belarus ran at Kiev, then retreated some time later. This was taken to mean “Russia is losing and incompetent” by the Media. But there is a military strategy move of making a light assault on one high value target so that troops are kept in place to defend it. You don’t go all out at it as that is costly in resources, just enough to “fix” those troops in place defending that target (so they can’t be rushed off to where you are really interested in capturing some assets).

    There’s a very real possibility that Russia was doing Fixing Maneuvers in the middle / north Ukraine so that they had an easier time of it cleaning out Azov folks in the East and capturing the facilities and such in The East with minimal damage. Mess up some of the places in the middle, west, north that you don’t want to keep and Fix those troops there; so it is easier to take the parts you want to take as intact as possible.

    That’s what I see Russia doing. (Yes, I could be wrong…) I believe there was never a goal of taking all of Ukraine, just the useful bits. Leave the Rump Ukraine mostly (all? TBD) land locked and with their industry messed up; capture the main ports and industrial resources as intact as possible.

  124. philjourdan says:

    Looks like Pointman was correct.

  125. p.g.sharrow says:

    Seems to me that calling the game before the first half is over is a bit premature. I’ve been following this ground game from way before the First day of the present “invasion” Putin tried to slam dunk an ending to his attempt to conquer a march on NATO and stepped into a hornet nest. NATO is revitalized and Ukraine is beginning it’s drive on Crimea, The attempt to roll up the South East region is now in a see-saw of 2 steps forward 2 steps back while Putin plans on the Democrats forcing a stalemate on a Ukraine that is planning on driving Russia out of ALL of Ukraine.
    Don’t be fooled by Russian/MSM psy-ops propaganda. Putin is wasting men and material at an unreplaceable rate to give the impression of winning.. While “educated people in the west cry out save yourselves and surrender to Putin, the Ukraine people are joining in on their defense and a drive to Liberate all of Ukraine. In Russia the people are beginning to resist the demand for more resources to prolong This “Expeditionary” action to rebuild Greater Russia. A large part of the worlds nations are beginning to resist the idea that making war on your neighbors to adjust borders is an acceptable activity. .
    ” The Brothers of the North will unite and outlaw war.” is coming to pass. Putin is loosing his war. A PAX is being created, China is paying attention. …pg
    .

  126. rhoda klapp says:

    Just one observation from my ‘extensive military experience’, don’t think too much of what territory an offensive has taken, but the price it paid to take it and whether it can go again tomorrow. Smart defenders give up land but demand a high price for it.

    ‘When the enemy advances, we retreat’ Mao Tse Tung, iirc.

  127. p.g.sharrow says:

    @ rhoda klapp; you got that right. The object when dealing with a powerful opponent is to make him bleed dearly for his gains. While you give ground to fight another day. In the early days of ww2 the Germans and Japanese won most of the battles but at great cost. Costs they could not replace..

  128. p.g.sharrow says:

    For those paying attention, Putin is being T62 tanks onto the battle field to shore up his losses as he is using up tanks twice as fast as they are being built. He is paying “signing bonuses of over a years pay to gain army recruits and having trouble gaining them. And a flood of more modern weapons from the west is just beginning to reach the battle field.

  129. E.M.Smith says:

    @P.G.:

    My only wondering about your scenario is this: How do you know Russia is losing men and material at an unacceptable rate?

    I don’t have any source I’d consider reliable for who has lost what (for either side). So it isn’t like I’m saying “I’ve got this”. More that I’m assuming (yes, assuming… with all that implies) “we just do not know”. So if you have a reliable source of battle losses intel, I’d love to go browse it.

    “Western Media” has been caught in flat out lies so often it is clearly useless.
    Russian Sources are clearly spinning and propagandizing (but do it better than the MSM ;-)
    There’s loads of folks who claim special sources and insights, but how to validate?

    What I have seen is that Russia has done a pretty good job of capturing the Russian language areas of Crimea, Donbass, and a bit more, and has not been pushed out. The West claims to have shipped $Billions of Cool Toys & Weaponry while Russia claims to have blown up a bunch of it in warehouses prior to use. Beyond that, I’m not seeing much decent intel. Then again, I’m not doing a big Dig Here! on this war (mostly just waiting until the victor is obvious, and hoping it doesn’t go nuclear).

  130. jim2 says:

    I think there is one thing we can take to the Bank. Putin claims to be upset because Ukraine could become a NATO country, right on his door step. But logically, if he takes all the non-NATO countries around him, he will have NATO at all his door steps. Just sayin’.

  131. E.M.Smith says:

    @Jim2:

    Yeah, it is a bit of a logical fault… OTOH, he may be thinking that those countries are full of non-Russians so if he has a buffer of, say,, Polish folks, dominated by Russia but between Mother Russia and NATO, that’s still a buffer.

    Basically think in terms of Russian People and not countries… and it almost makes sense…

    Or looked at another way: What is the flight time of a nuclear missile from that border to Moscow? Don’t care where NATO touches ‘whoever’ as long as the missiles are over 10 minutes away?

  132. p.g.sharrow says:

    @EMSmith; LOL you would best spend your efforts in finding just the right place to live and getting a bunch of fishing in rather then wasting your time getting your head around the Ukraine / Russian war. It will resolve it’s self regardless of what we do. After you get yourself planted there will be time to get up to date on the world. There will no Nuclear war so don’t worry about that..
    I watch /listen to the various MSM sides….. what a waste of my time as both sides are 90% propaganda and talking head BS. by “Ex-spurts” There are a number of independent Bloggers and U-tubers that post win-loses by the day or week. “Just the facts mam” we will figure it out later. and people that examine Satellite and Arial photos from drones, compared to ground photos to give a good indication of actual events. Ukraine and NATO statistics seem to be closer to reality then the Russian reports.
    For me, I have little of value to do but tend my garden and pay attention to history scrolling in front of my eyes while I wait for GOD to post the next move. My lady is in the hospital recovering from pace maker implant and a small stroke, At 80 years, recovery is slow and painful for her. But her attitude has improved in the last couple of days. With spirits maybe body.
    From time to time I will continue to annoy with my own observations…pg

  133. jim2 says:

    Sorry about your wife. Even at our (most of us “here” on the blog probably) are of advanced age. We are the lucky ones, I suppose. It’s truly a shame we don’t as youths have the understanding we have now. Or so it seems to me, at least.

  134. E.M.Smith says:

    @P.G.:

    Good luck with the medical issues. Pacemakers are pretty standard care now so I’d worry more about any stroke related issues. If treated early and well they can resolve too.

    Per Russia / Ukraine: I’m basically not putting much time into it at all. About 5 minutes every 2nd or 3rd day to see if anyone is clearly “winning” yet. It was interesting when it first started, but now is just watching paint dry to some extent. Since I’ve got no source I can trust, I’m mostly ignoring the whole thing.

    Per house hunting: Yeah, done way too much of it. Lots of over priced houses, lots of fair priced ones that sell same day… Likely we’ll just get a decent rental in a week or two and wait to buy until the Fed has raised interest rates enough to kill the market ;-)

    We’ve generally been looking at about 2 to 3 properties a day. Spouse has some strongly held requirements that limit the “acceptable” choices, and then market forces put some others out of reach. Either from crazy pricing, or from crazy fast sales.

    Major PITA had been not having any computer I could just open a browser “whenever” and type “whatever” on a real keyboard. That’s now fixed ;-)

    So I can now much more effectively do a whole lot of stuff.

  135. p.g.sharrow says:

    Refugees from California have likely screwed with the housing market in places like Florida. Yes rent for a while until after the real-estate market crashes is a good plan. As you can do cash out, you can do a lot more damage on the Too High present prices. As well as have more to select from.
    ,,,pg Yes usable real computers are too cheap to fight with a half assed one. The speed at which you type requires a real keyboard, No sense living with a handicap to your typing. It is kind of like a throttle on your brain.
    I do one finger hunt and peck. The idea of a finger-o-matic touch screen would drive me bonkers….pg

  136. jim2 says:

    Nice chart here also …

    US Existing Home Sales Fall for 3rd Month
    Existing home sales in the US declined by 2.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.61 million in April of 2022, the lowest since June of 2020 and slightly below forecasts of 5.65 million. Sales went down for a third consecutive month, in another sign the housing market is cooling, as higher home prices and mortgage rates have reduced buyer activity. Total housing inventory amounted to 1,030,000 units, up 10.8% from March and the median existing-home price for all housing types was $391,200, up 14.8% from April 2021. “It looks like more declines are imminent in the upcoming months, and we’ll likely return to the pre-pandemic home sales activity after the remarkable surge over the past two years”, said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. less

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/existing-home-sales

  137. YMMV says:

    Per Russia / Ukraine: I’m basically not putting much time into it at all. About 5 minutes every 2nd or 3rd day to see if anyone is clearly “winning” yet. It was interesting when it first started, but now is just watching paint dry to some extent. Since I’ve got no source I can trust, I’m mostly ignoring the whole thing.

    Yup. What else can you do?

    The people of Europe (including UK and Ireland) may not be so lucky. No heat, no food, no job, no worries? But that’s later. Right now, it is the huge influx of refugees. Sound familiar? Tried to book a hotel recently? It seems that many hotels have cancelled their bookings and now are refugee residences for a year. There could be consequences.

    All this because the US + Soros overthrew a democratically elected government in Ukraine. Not to mention the non-democratically elected one at home.

  138. Ed Forbes says:

    Pg
    The T62 is only slightly less effective than the T72. It will be very effective in reducing pockets that have used up most of their more modern infantry anti weapons. For this use, even the older obsolete T34-76mm (1942) fitted with cages would work well. The T34 broke the Germans in Berlin who used vast numbers of infantry AT panzerfausts that were effective against even the heaviest armor of the time. T34’s mounted “bed spring “ armor, ie cage armor to partially counter act the panzerfaust.
    .
    Iraq used the T62 for good effect. As most of the weapons and tanks used on both sides are from this general timeframe, the Iraq-Iran war is a good baseline regardless of the upgrades to both the T72 and T62 over the years.
    .
    Wiki
    “.. In 1974, the Iraqi Army acquired 100 T-62s and 600 more in 1976, which were delivered through to 1979. In 1982 a further 2,150 were ordered, which were delivered by 1989. These tanks saw service in the Iraqi–Kurdish conflict from 1974 to 1991.[40]
    In the Iran–Iraq War, Iraqi T-62s performed well against opposing Iranian tanks, such as M47s, M48s, M60A1s and Chieftains. In Operation Nasr, the biggest tank battles of the war, Iran lost 214 Chieftain and M60A1 tanks, while Iraq lost 45 T-62s.[41] The remaining Iranian armour turned about and withdrew.[42] Approximately 200 T-62s were lost in the entire war.[40]”

  139. Graeme No.3 says:

    EMS:
    The Australian newspaper reports a sudden drop in house ‘values’ in several States. All the ‘most desirable’ suburbs have reported drops of 4 to 11% in ‘value’ (which I assume refers to actual sale prices). Even apartments are showing a (smaller) decline.
    Australians have always preferred buying real estate as their (biggest) investment, but the market is spooked by the prospect of interest rate rises (current borrowing rates are 3-4% but fixed term rates are hard to find).

  140. p.g.sharrow says:

    An interesting history lesson on Putin’s thinking about protecting Russian citizens along it’s western flanks. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eo6w5R6Uo8Y about 36 min. long,,well done

  141. philjourdan says:

    Don’t wait too long to buy the house. I think it is 2 years before you have to declare capital gains. While you and your wife can knock $500k (one time excemption) off the profit of the house, still sucks to pay capital gains when you do not have to.

  142. p.g.sharrow says:

    @EdForbes; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9i47sgi-V4 this will give you some I idea why the modern Russian Military is performing so poorly against the Ukraine. Add to this the Americans/NATO have been feeding real time intell on Russian Unit movements from satellite and AWAKs operating over NATO lands. this has tipped the balance in many cases. I should add that in the Iraqi – Iran war much the same condition existed with the Iranians operating poorly maintained and operated equipment against the Iraqis that were receiving real time intell from the Americans and had new well maintained Soviet equipment at that time. It is training and tactics that often tips the balance in military actions but, troop moral and will to win counts for a lot. Western, man launched anti-tank weapons seem to be of big effect against all generations of Russian tanks. ..pg

  143. Ed Forbes says:

    Pg…no issue with you over training makes a difference.
    My post was response to what I read as you dissing the T62. If you weren’t, my apologies. Many others on the net are dissing it.
    .
    As I turn off Java, I generally don’t do YouTube

  144. David A says:

    Jim2 says, “Putin claims to be upset because Ukraine could become a NATO country, right on his door step. But logically, if he takes all the non-NATO countries around him, he will have NATO at all his door steps.”

    My understanding is that it is for time. If you have territory to defend and space between your key areas and your enemy, you live another day. All wars are logistic, and land and geography challenge logistics. This becomes very true when one is talking missile strikes and atomic weapons. M.A.D. depends on time to respond. The capacity to defend against intercontinental ballistic missiles depends on time and space. And Kiev directly threatened to develop nukes. The idea that a nuclear war is not winnable, has been disputed by several nations.

    Also, of course, there were many other provocations, yet one can scarcely doubt that Russia became the bogeyman again because they would not play the “One World Government games.

    And, BTW, Russia apparently now has several missile systems that we simply cannot defend against. If Russia chooses they can decimate our naval ships at any time, and we cannot stop them.

  145. jim2 says:

    Ukraine as a barrier won’t help Putin defend against hypersonic missiles. Or a swarm of drones, or …

  146. jim2 says:

    I can’t find the video now, but there was some footage from one of the Middle East wars showing the effects of a guided cluster bomb. One of these things can target and take out a dozen tanks. It was really impressive. There are other videos showing tests, but I couldn’t find the exact footage sought.

  147. David A says:

    Jim2, I disagree regarding drones, and my current understanding is that Russia has a large advantage in hyper-sonic missiles.

  148. p.g.sharrow says:

    ” Russia has a large advantage in hyper-sonic missiles”…. having a missile or even a few does not win a war. Russia no longer has the ability to mass produce their latest and greatest war toys. And most of those things include include critical parts from western nations. Russian drones are assembled from parts made in Western Countries.

  149. p.g.sharrow says:

    As to Decimating a Carrier group in a war action you have no Idea what a carrier group is under battle conditions. Believe me the only to “take out” a carrier group is to catch them in port and “On Liberty

  150. E.M.Smith says:

    @P.G.:

    I’m pretty much up to speed on public information conventional and nuclear weapons abilities, and just how much protective firepower is wrapped around a Carrier. Where I’m kind of lost is on hypersonics.

    I know they go at speeds like 5+ Mach, and that supposedly we don’t have anything that can shoot those down. Then the really big unknown: What is the range?

    IFF in fact we don’t have hypersonic shoot down ability, then the question is how far away can the launcher be vs how far away is the edge of the protective umbrella around the Carrier Battle Group?

    IFF they can launch from (for example) 2000 miles away and the max range for carrier B.G. defensive line is 1000 miles, then they could launch a Hypersonic at the ship and not be subject to counter battery fire. The question would then become: Have we got some undisclosed defense against hypersonic missiles? Like those long rumored and supposedly field tested lasers on ships.

    So I could see it going either way, based on just what we don’t know.

    My instinct would be that we’ve got undisclosed weapons to take out hypersonic missiles. We’ve had hypersonic craft for several decades now (the retired space shuttle is hypersonic…) so I’d be incredibly surprised if nobody had been working on ways to shoot them down all these decades…

  151. H.R. says:

    I’m wondering how effective a hypersonic missile fired from extremely long distance would be against a moving ship.

    I can see them working just fine against static targets, like dropping one on a military base command center, but the feedback loop for moving targets would have to be incredibly fast and the forces needed to correct course would be very high.

    I would think that there would be enough minutes of warning for an aircraft carrier to begin even a simple evasive maneuver that could not be adjusted for in time by a hypersonic missile. It’s no biggie to miss the middle of the command center by 20 or 30 meters. It’s gonna be blown up. But that would be a miss on a ship that has even moved 600 or 800 meters from a steady course in the several minutes of warning time I’m sure a ship would have.

    It might work with a ‘painted’ target, but who’d ever get close enough to a carrier to paint it?

    Eh, what do I know? Those kinks may have been ironed out.

  152. AC Osborn says:

    Ask the question, why would a missile traveling at Mach 5 in a straight line survive against a barrage of steel in front of it any better than one travelling at 600mph?
    Unless of course it is basically just a piece of solid steel or tungsten and relies on it’s kinetic energy to destroy the target.

  153. jim2 says:

    This ability to travel at ultra-high velocity is the primary appeal of hypersonic missiles because it extends their range and allows them to bypass modern layered missile defenses.[ix] Hypersonic missiles are also capable of maneuvering in flight, allowing them to evade missile defense tracking systems and interceptors. This is in contrast to conventional RVs, which descend through the atmosphere on a predictable ballistic trajectory that can be tracked and intercepted by modern missile defense systems.

    https://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/missile-threat-and-proliferation/missile-basics/hypersonic-missiles/

  154. jim2 says:

    I am an aerospace engineer who studies space and defense systems, including hypersonic systems. These new systems pose an important challenge due to their maneuverability all along their trajectory. Because their flight paths can change as they travel, these missiles must be tracked throughout their flight.

    A second important challenge stems from the fact that they operate in a different region of the atmosphere from other existing threats. The new hypersonic weapons fly much higher than slower subsonic missiles but much lower than intercontinental ballistic missiles. The U.S. and its allies do not have good tracking coverage for this in-between region, nor does Russia or China.

    https://www.fastcompany.com/90741658/an-aerospace-engineer-explains-how-hypersonic-missiles-work

  155. H.R. says:

    That answers one of my questions, jim2. If they can maneuver well enough in flight to evade missile defense systems, they most probably can adjust to a moving target, particularly one as large and relatively slow as an aircraft carrier.

    In the link to hypersonic missiles that E.M. posted in comments over on the latest W.O.O.D., it seemed that ‘painting’ a target might be necessary, but that was a little fuzzy in that article.

  156. E.M.Smith says:

    Part of the problem, as I understand it, is that there’s several different H.S. tech approaches. Some are just your “Rods From God” tungsten lump going Damn Fast and others are high tech explosives delivery systems. For some, the speed is a feature, for other it means a shell disbursing a flat disk of BBs in front of it will be a kill. (Mach 5 BB in your explosives package messes up your day…)

    The “last minute move” is a challenge to the missile but at Mach 5 you also don’t have very much change of position for your carrier you can do in the terminal phase of reentry (for the ones that reach space) time window. Figure about 100 miles (45 degree angle through atmosphere, basically) from first reentry point and assuming Mach 5 is about 3000 MPH (mach varies with air pressure) you have about 2 minutes to maneuver from the time you first know it isn’t just a science package… Long enough I *think*, but depends entirely on folks already having standing orders, everyone alert, and fast reaction times.

    Then, at say 30 miles / hour (assuming you are already under way at high speed) you have 30 / 60 miles per minute or 1/2 mile / minute for 2 minutes max (most of which will be in your prior momentum direction… that the missile will already have factored in). IF you can get a course change of 90 degrees in that time (and I’m not so sure you can…) that’s a 1/2 mile to 1 mile max sized box you will be in. For a carrier that is 1/5 of a mile long… And that kind of shrinking box will continue second by second as the missile approaches. That’s the biggest your box of possibles can ever be. I think you can hit a moving target in that size box with 2 minute to adjust… The missile has 100 miles to change terminal impact by 1/2 to 1 mile. Not a huge angle change / control force.

    Basically it comes down to the ship having very little time to move and not much speed to use in doing the move; while the missile has very small angle changes needed but has to do the retargeting Damn Fast since the approach velocity is changing the targeting solution very fast. Needs a very fast computer and a very fast response loop on the controls.

  157. H.R. says:

    @E.M – I was taking all of that into account in my original questioning of the hypersonic missiles, but your link over on WOOD and jim2’s link above raises the odds that a hypersonic missile can hit a carrier. I don’t recall either article saying the missile defense problem was solved. I think both said, “not solved yet.”

    It’s still not crystal clear to me because, for obvious reasons, no one is willing to give out enough detailed info so anyone and everyone can do the math on missile and missile defense technologies. No telling what has actually been solved, because a lot of the problems probably actually have been solved, and no one will admit it just to keep the other side guessing.

  158. rhoda klapp says:

    A few observations.
    The T-62 story is disputed. It may be made up.

    Mach varies with temperature not pressure. Doesn’t make much difference in the real world.

    Hypersonics can’t turn very well, or at least generate any sort of a small radius or turn rate. They might be better to use side thrusters to add a lateral component rather than bank and pull. That would give a degree of terminal guidance.

    I don’t really see the relevance of buffer states in modern war, at least in nuclear war. I can think of a few ways to get a no-warning first strike and so can anybody else.

    The US didn’t sanction Imperial Japan for nothing, but because they kept invading countries.

    The UK and France didn’t declare on Germany because of Nazi Ideology or concentration camps, but because they kept invading countries.

    All disputes and frictions aside, you mustn’t go invading countries, especially if you publish a list of other countries you plan to invade next. That’s what Putin has done, and that, despite provocation, despite the unworthiness of the Ukrainain regime, makes me side with Ukraine.

  159. AC Osborn says:

    “jim2 says:
    2 June 2022 at 11:37 am
    The new hypersonic weapons fly much higher than slower subsonic missiles but much lower than intercontinental ballistic missiles.

    I smell BS here as that region is where Aircraft also fly, including AWACS, so I can’t see how they don’t already have coverage of that region, radar doesn’t stop at 10,000ft, or 50,000ft.

  160. jim2 says:

    @ACO – from what I’ve read, the low altitude, high speed, and maneuverability means that by the time they are detected, only a small window remains to select a response option.

  161. cdquarles says:

    Physics is still physics. Aerodynamics is still aerodynamics. A rigid or semi-rigid body cannot turn tight unless it can slow down, where tight means small turn radius. Think “two minute, full circle, turn” for aircraft. A smaller, slower prop plane takes less space to make that turn than a big, fast, jet plane. A true ballistic missile can’t turn at all, on its own, without using some kind of movable airfoil, which means something internal to power them. So, if these are powered, and not true ballistic missiles, then there will be some kind of a signature associated with them. Yes, it is the decision time between detecting that and the time deploying one or more countermeasures that will matter. I’d not be surprised if the USA has some, kept under wraps; and ‘display weakness’ here where that will make opponents put in effort that isn’t nearly as useful and attacking our horrid political situation. I also wouldn’t be surprised if some of the UFO reports are various militaries testing stuff like this.

  162. E.M.Smith says:

    There are 2 kinds of hypersonic missile and you must distinguish issues accordingly.

    LOW altitude damn fast: For a carrier group, you have AWACs and their mini-AWAC carried aboard that ought to be able to detect these, but at what range? Unknown. For a ship alone, you have a horizon of about 150 miles. 3000 MPH is 50 miles per minute. You have 3 minutes from detection to decision to deployment of some defense. Is that enough? In 3 minutes for a major ship you can START a turn or change of speed ….

    HIGH altitude damn fast: Here they ARE flying where most aircraft do not. Most Military aircraft fly under 50,000 feet. (Zoom Height can be up to 70,000 ish for a “pull up at mach big and slow to near nothing” climb). Between about 50,000 and 100,000 you get U2 and similar and not much else. Space starts at about 60 miles, call it 300,000 feet. Nothing much is between 100k and 300k feet other than transiting space vehicles.

    So at what altitude DO these things fly? Due to reduced air drag with altitude and Mach 5 being fast enough to run a RAM jet on very thin air, I’d expect them to be above 50 K and maybe even above 100 K Ft. Some will be going sub-orbital at over 300k feet.

    This presents 2 problems:

    1) Our radars can certainly SEE those altitudes, but are they programmed to “not care” as “nothing there is of interest”? Are most of the air defense radars of the power level to see things 100 miles away down low (antenna rotating in plane of the sea) and not able to “look up 200 miles away near space”? I can see most of the radars having “design points” to eliminate “false signals” from space junk and transiting space vehicles. Fixable, yes, but in how long for how much $$$?

    2) Present air defense systems generally have response times, flight times, and power levels (read altitude) that can’t hit things at 100K+ feet. So we can likely SEE it incoming, but can’t do anything until it is about 150,000 feet away (on an angle) and then only with a defensive rocket that isn’t anywhere near as fast and using a targeting system that isn’t fast enough to hit a Mach 5 target. We’re talking about a roughly 30 mile away “first possible” engagement and at 50 miles / minute, you have 3/5 of a minute, or 36 SECONDS before impact. Can present air defense systems SEE, DECIDE, TARGET, LAUNCH and CORRECT fast enough to hit the incoming in under 30 seconds? If not you are toast.

    So I’m seeing this as very much a problem. Now I also think the MIL has been working this far longer than admitted and likely has a bag of tricks, but unknown,

    @Rhoda:

    This is a fight between a Not Nice Corrupt Russia and a Money Laundry Corrupt crime ridden Ukraine Government pwned by GEBs. I see zero reason to be on either side.

    Citizens of both countries are just pawns in this and irrelevant, as are their sob stories. We in the USA as citizens are also irrelevant as our Biden Crime Family / CCP Owned government does not represent us, either. So our sob stories about gas prices and “baby formula” shortages and such are equally irrelevant.

    This is a Cage Match between 2 Political Dynasties and the citizens are just in the way; no matter who “wins”. A pox on both their houses.

    I’d rather not be supporting nor advocating for either of them, and “picking sides”, as I am at best a bit of gum on the shoe of government thugs, is not very helpful, IMHO.

  163. YMMV says:

    This is a Cage Match between 2 Political Dynasties and the citizens are just in the way; no matter who “wins”. A pox on both their houses.

    Once upon a (short period of) time, there were two political dynasties. The US and the USSR.
    Neither of those exist any more, but their successors carry on the old feuds anyway.
    The Cold War isn’t cold anymore, but so far it is just a proxy war.

    One one side, there is the crumbling remnant of the USSR, with some legitimate grievances.
    One the other side, there is the Clinton/Biden/Soros/DNC coalition.
    And on yet another side, there is Europe. Which depends on Russia for its energy needs, but doesn’t seem to know what its own best interests are. Again. WW1, WW2.

    For a little backgrounder, read this:
    https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/06/who_really_killed_seth_rich.html

    Who wins in Ukraine is not the issue; the issue is who loses. And the answer is us.
    And that is the best-case scenario.

  164. E.M.Smith says:

    @YMMV:

    Well put. Though I’d add that: on a 4th side there’s the US Population that are increasingly aware that their “Government” is a puppet of Other Powers and they are a target of hostilities from the DNC/CCP/Biden/Soros/Clinton complex; but so far are still in a ‘figuring it out’ mode. Not yet in a “shoot them all, let God sort them out” but can see it from here.

    IMHO, the election in November will be a very key turning point. IF, yet again, it is clearly stolen, then the US Population with clue will write off the election process and move on to “other means”. That’s where I’m at. One More Chance to return to Rule Of Law, and if that fails, it’s Lawless Is OK for Me as well as Thee. Lord help us if that is the case. I sure don’t want to “go there”.

    My plan is a simple “Going Galt”, as I have the cash to do it (at least for one more year of BidenFlation…) and I’m a bit old for anything kinetic (heck, it’s 11 AM before coffee has me mobile enough to go to the hot tub…) BUT, what will a Ghetto Black do when SHTF or a Hispanic USA Citizen Wanna Bee when his dreams land him in El Salvador Del Norte? Eh?

    I’m not worried much at all about Hispanic Illegal Immigration. I grew up 1/2 Hispanic due to my Besty Miguel and spending lots of time at his home. These are generally good and largely conservative value Catholic folks. The Dimocrats have very strongly blown it on Hispanic invasion… they are coming here for the American Dream of liberty and freedom. They are on OUR side… Easily bought for a small while, they become political conservatives right quick. So a bit of dirt and a trailer is all I really need. Hispanics will be very willing to prevent another Communist Hell Hole via force of arms. I just need a place to be off the grid while that happens,

    It’s the Dems in cities who will be screwed, rioting, and going after their Democrat powers that be.

    Oh Well.

    FWIW, Hispanics are rather a LOT like The Irish; and in fact there were Irish Named Generals in the Spanish Army. These folks “have met”. Often. There’s a large Celtic Thread through Hispania and a decent Latin Thread in the culture of the Irish. It’s the Germanic / Anglo / Saxon folks who “don’t get it” about this thread. I’m “only” about 1/4 Irish, but grew up 1/2 Hispanic in terms of experiences. I can tell you there’s a lot in common. Including a desire to be left in peace having a nice drunken party whenever possible; but also quite willing to explode in your face and / or find ways to have you “wake up dead” with no trace back… if you become too much of a PITA.

    The simple fact is that the GEBs and their pwnd DNC have no clue about such things. Full of Germanic Hubris.. So will push too far and will most likely have it all blow up in their faces.

    All I can do, at my age, is try to find a hole to hide in that is out of the way enough that I’m not involved. Then come out after the SHTF has sorted them out. And it will.

    IMHO, this is a continuation of a cultural conflict dating back to the Roman invasion of Gaul. It will not end any time soon, but it is survivable.

  165. philjourdan says:

    @Rhoda Klapp – All true. But spouting facts at idiots is like pissing on a wild fire!

  166. E.M.Smith says:

    @YMMV:

    Also just got to read that link to American Thinker.

    Yes, it’s a Criminal Conspiracy of the Biden Crime Family and the Clinton Crime Family. Yes, it is treasonous. But as the conspiracy looks to include the TLAs (at minimum the FBI, DOJ, and CIA; with a side of DNC) just who is going to do the prosecuting for RICO that is clearly needed?

    I just don’t see it happening. There’s been such strong evidence of Top Cover that there doesn’t seem to be any higher power over the Top Cover Agency (whatever it is) able to get past it. It can clearly murder with impunity (Clintoncide list) and disappear evidence at will (Hunter & Seth laptops). Probably intimidate and / or bribe anyone not subject to Clintoncide. Oh, and sends out uniform Talking Points to ALL the MSM on the same day (Russia, Russia, Russia as just one example) so has tentacles into Media Empires. Probably a whole lot more reach too (Twitter…).

    That’s why I’m leaning a whole lot more toward “Going Galt” than anything else. This is such a massive and well connected Agency of Top Cover that it will take a Nation State or several Brave Billionaire Class families to take it on, Trump came as close as we could get, and “they” were even able to take him out of the picture (only sidelined so far, but still out of the way).

    So yeah, a RICO on their asses would be a Very Good Thing to see; but so would winning the lottery I didn’t enter (and about as likely IMHO). Yeah, I’m pessimistic about it all. Just waiting for November to see if the pessimism is justified.

  167. David A says:

    Regarding Russian missile systems… (From Wik)
    “According to Vladimir Putin, the US withdrawal from the ABM Treaty in 2002 forced Russia to start developing hypersonic weapons: The Avangard (then called Yu-71 and Yu-74) was reportedly flight tested between February 2015 and June 2016 on board UR-100UTTKh ICBMs launched from Dombarovsky Air Base, Orenburg Oblast, when it reached a speed of 11,200 kilometres per hour (7,000 mph; 3,100 m/s) n October 2016, another flight test was carried out using a R-36M2 heavy ICBM launched from Dombarovsky Air Base, successfully hitting a target at the Kura Missile Test Range. This was reportedly the first fully successful test of the glide vehicle.[14]

    On 1 March 2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin in his presidential address to the Federal Assembly in Moscow announced that testing of the weapon is now complete and that it has entered serial production.The latest flight test occurred on 26 December 2018. Avangard carried by a UR-100UTTKh ICBM launched from Dombarovsky Air Base successfully hit a target at the Kura Missile Test Range.[citation needed] The Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Yury Borisov stated a day later that the glider flew at 27 times the speed of sound, “invulnerable to interceptionThe blast yield of a nuclear warhead carried by the Avangard is reportedly more than 2 megatons TNT.[33]

    The high speed of the Avangard likely gives it far better target-penetration characteristics than lighter subsonic cruise-missiles. The Avangard weighs about 2,000 kg and travels at Mach 20–27, giving it the equivalent of 17.5 tons of TNT in kinetic energy.

    Other sources say Russia has four separate systems. How many and how battle ready these are, how dependent on western nations for production, I do not know.

  168. E.M.Smith says:

    Looks like my Mach 5 estimates are a bit slow… Mach 25 ish is a real surprise. I wonder how they do it. It ought to take over 17 tons of fuel to get a 17 tons TNT terminal impact energy. One very big rocket…

  169. H.R. says:

    Mach 25 is smokin’!

    (There are some leadfooted teenagers who attempt it in the family station wagon. Don’t ask me how I know. 😉)

  170. Simon Derricutt says:

    EM – energy density of TNT is 4.184MJ/kg or 4.184GJ/tonne, whereas Kerosene is 46.3MJ/kg or 46.3GJ/tonne, or about 11 times as much energy in Kerosene than TNT. Thing is that TNT detonates, so produces a shock-wave that does the damage.

  171. rhoda klapp says:

    Mach 27 is orbital speed in the stratosphere. That makes it an orbital weapon, range world-wide, with a steerable re-entry vehicle. But at least possible to intercept with ABMs, it cannot possibly be very maneuverable. Didn’t we have a fractional-orbit vehicle scare decades ago? This is not as scary to me as the mach 5 at 200k ft scenario. A consolation is that once you know what you are looking for it’s a pretty good target for doppler radar and has a gigantic IR signature.

    (Not an expert, no professional knowledge, just what I read in publically available sources.)

  172. H.R. says:

    @rhoda – That maneuverability question has been the sticking point with me. Way up above, I was wondering about if they were maneuverable at all, but in one of the links E.M. or jim2 found, it mentioned they were maneuverable. Of course, if you can get it to shift 3 feet to the left, that’s a maneuver. It’s certain that they can’t outmaneuver a Fokker DR-1.

    However, the size of the destructive force of the missile alone, without even accounting for some conventional explosive or nuclear device, is massive.

    I think this is a case of “close only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, and hypersonic missiles.”

    I’m also thinking that something as unwieldy as an aircraft carrier actually could evade a direct hit, but it seems it might not matter so long as one of these puppies is ‘close enough’.

    They are new and a shiny thing, so it’s been interesting learning about them. At least learning as much as everyone isn’t hiding to preserve their “Surprise! Surprise! Surprise!” factor.

  173. E.M.Smith says:

    @Simon:

    I had no idea there was an order of magnitude difference! I’d just figured it was about the same with some allowance for the Rocket Equation to eat a few tons… Even with the Rocket Equation chewing at it, a factor of 10 will be hard to consume… So likely closer to 4 to 8 tons of kerosene to lift, accelerate and aim the rocket & warhead. Still big. At 8 lbs / gallon it’s about 1.1 Cubic M / ton, so about 4 to 8 cubic M of fuel (gasoline is about 6 / lb, water about 8.25 IIRC, and Diesel / Kerosene somewhere in between, but this is just spitballing the rough size so…) I make that a cylendar about 1.2 M diameter and 4 to 8 M tall. Big, but not outside the pale, as a first spitball estimate.

    So it looks like TNT, carrying the oxidizer in it, pays a big penalty over Kerosene with external oxidizer. BUT, in this rocket example, I’ve not figured in the oxidizer penalty… Hmmm….
    https://oni-assistant.com/tools/rocketcalculator

    Using “cargo module” as proxy for H.S. Warhead, I get Dry Weight of 2.6 Tonnes (2,600 kg – at least I think it is in kg, units display a bit lacking…) and weight “penalty” (that I think is cargo) of 3,094 kg ) along with net distance of 10,046 km ( I think it’s km…) with fuel / LOX of 247 kg each.

    Has these notes:

    Fuels and weight penalty:
    There are three fuels for each of the three base engines, each has its own “efficiency” in terms of km achieved per kg used:

    Steam 20km/kg
    Petroleum 40km/kg
    Liquid Hydrogen 60km/kg
    The efficiency of a fuel is important since its a linear relationship between kg of fuel used and distance traveled, however the weight penalty is non-linear (credit to neoazureus):

    I’m not sure having equal kerosene and lox by tonne is correct, but whatever. Assuming CH2 as dominant species and O2, CO2 and H2O would require 50% more (1.5 x) the O2. BUT, CH2 is mass 14 and O2 is mass 32, so equal mass would be closer to C2H4 per O2 and way short of enough O2… So I think this model is not very accurate…

    Moving on…https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquid_oxygen puts the density at about 1.1 that of water. OK..

    We need 3 O2 per 2 C2H2 ( CO2 CO2 H2O H2O gives 3 x O2) so at about equal density for LOX and K1, that’s about a 3:2 tank ratio… So a bit more oxidizer than the model uses…

    But I think this still says that to get a 17 kt impact energy you will need a LOT of fuel / oxidizer to get the speed. Adding in some oxidizer space, I think we’re getting into the 2 m diameter x 8 m tall (or more… depending on range desired) size of missile. Not going to have a lot of easily portable ones at that size… but it’s a speculative spit ball anyway.

    Might be interesting to look up actual sizes of things and actual fuel / oxidizer needed for a solid fuel engine, but I’ve got other things to do right now…

  174. David A says:

    HR says,
    “I think this is a case of “close only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, and hypersonic missiles.”

    At 2 megaton capacity it is hard to argue with that analogy.

    Reports on other systems are mach 7 to mach 11. It is very hard to know how accurate all the reporting is. I know it is difficult to believe, but Governments lie. If what is reported by Russia is accurate, everything but our nuclear submarine fleet is toast.

  175. p.g.sharrow says:

    The back story from the point of view of a Ukraine citizen;

    I’ve been following this guy for some time, He posts on ground troop conditions, gains and losses almost daily.

  176. E.M.Smith says:

    @P.G.:

    The problem I have with that video is the premise of “Putin wanted to take all of Ukraine”. We just don’t know that. What he has said to his people is not “all of Ukraine” but ~”the Russians in Ukraine”.

    The video concludes “Russia failed” to take Kiev.

    But equally likely (or maybe even more likely since it is in keeping with what was stated by Putin and aligns with a better strategy than invading all over with a smaller force and Putin is not dumb) is that Putin was doing what he said they would do. Take back the Russian areas, and using a “Fixing Force” to anchor the rest of the Ukrainian army back near Kiev. Then once the goal is largely in hand, pull that force back to Belorussian territory.

    I have no reason to believe that anyone outside of the Russian top staff knows what Putin’s goals were, so I can’t use a Ukrainian civilians speculation about the goals as the measuring stick for “success”. I have a little more trust in what Putin said in Russian to his people (but even that might be suspect in times of war).

    Per using older tanks:

    I see that as similar to the way I use food in the fridge. The stuff that’s oldest gets used up first ’cause it will just get thrown out otherwise. They are “good enough” tanks for the job needed, so you use the old one, not the newest. I do something similar with cars. I drive my oldest cheapest to maintain more than I drive the newest that needs expensive maintenance. I move the old tires to my car to “burn them up” and put new ones on the spouse’s car that gets less miles. I just don’t see that kind of efficiency as a negative. Though to the extent he loses more crews by having the old ones be less defensible, that would be a big deal (but I don’t know that the losses are at all related to the tank age).

    So from my POV, I don’t see Russia having ‘lost’ at all, because I’m not holding “success” to be all of Ukraine and they HAVE taken the Russian areas. We’ll know they have “failed” if they get pushed out of those areas. Until then, it’s just more battles in an unknown set of goals.

  177. E.M.Smith says:

    As an example “from the other side”:
    https://www.rt.com/russia/556645-russia-destroys-tanks-kiev/


    Moscow has said the heavy weaponry was hidden in railcar repair facilities

    Foreign-supplied tanks destroyed in Kiev – Russia

    Russian airstrikes have destroyed foreign-supplied tanks in the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, Moscow said on Sunday.

    Defense Ministry spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov said during a regular briefing that Russian forces carried out airstrikes “on the outskirts of Kiev, destroying the T-72 tanks and other armored vehicles that were supplied by Eastern European countries and kept in railcar repair facilities.”

    The spokesman did not specify where the tanks came from, but Poland previously said it had donated T-72 tanks to Ukraine.

    Konashenkov said that military targets were also hit in Donbass, as well as in eastern and southern Ukraine, including multiple rocket launchers and a US-made mobile counterfire radar.

    Ukraine’s General Staff earlier reported that Kiev was among the areas hit by Russian forces. Mayor Vitali Klitschko said that one person was hospitalized.
    […]

    Then in comments:

    S Car
    UK news reporting a train repair depot was destroyed
    . All the media liars to us. Truth is war extremely damaging to everyone.

    I’m in agreement with S Car. “All the media liars”.

    So which is the truth Did Russia hit a train repair depot, or not? Yes, the RT Article includes a photo of smokey skies over Kiev, but I’ve seen photos of Klingons too…

    Were their any tanks in it? Was it a Russian Success that Ukraine and the BBC are hiding, or is it Russia hit a train repair yard and is calling it tanks? How do you know?

    IF any air raid at all was carried out: Where were those Air Defense assets and Ukrainian Air force being praised in the prior video as being “intact”? Not in evidence that I can see. We do have some western news reporting an air attack on Kiev.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10570679/Huge-blast-rocks-Kyiv-train-station-desperate-locals-battling-flee-Putins-bombs.html

    Sunday, Jun 5th 2022 4PM
    Huge explosion ‘like a small nuke’ hits Kyiv as series of blasts rock Ukrainian capital – with train station rocked where desperate locals are fleeing from Putin’s bombs in latest night-time attacks
    At least four explosions were reported in quick succession in Kiev at around 2am local time

    So it DOES look like the Ukrainian air space is Russian Owned. The wording of that intro makes it sound like folks were hiding in the train station, but further down they talk about Kiev being where refugees are going. Yellow Journalism implying Russia bombing people not tanks?

    Earlier, Russian air strike hit near Kyiv’s southern main railways station at around 7pm local time, reports said
    It comes as thousands continue to flee Ukraine’s capital, a week since Putin launched his deadly invasion
    Ukraine’s interior ministry adviser Anton Herashchenko said the strike – near Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence – may have cut off central heating supply to parts of the Ukrainian capital amid freezing winter temperatures
    Earlier, bodies of five people killed in a strike on Kyiv’s television tower were today piled into a van by police
    Mayor Vitali Klitschko said defences are being built and that ‘we will fight’ to stop the city being captured
    Came after Russia bombarded a TV tower overnight, killing five people and damaging a Holocaust memorial
    Vladimir Putin’s forces have today renewed attacks on other cities including Kherson, Kharkiv and Mariupol

    So in an A / B comparison: I don’t have enough proved up information to claim either one is the truth. I don’t see how anyone can get that evidence. Certainly not from the YSM / MSM and / or anyone in Ukraine or Russia (both partisans for their side). Not seeing a neutral EU in all this either. There is no Walter Cronkite on the nightly snooze anymore, and nobody reporting straight from the front (only crooked from a ways away…)

    Essentially we have a “He Said / She Said” without objective evidence.

    All that said: I lean a little bit more toward “Russia bombed arms on the ground” as being the truth, since that is exactly what I’d be doing were I running the Russian Army / Air Force. Russia has spy sats too and plenty of Ukrainian speakers… You just don’t sit back and let those assets be brought to the front and attack you if you can at all drop a bomb on them. But that’s pretty weak tea when it comes to saying what DID happen. “What I would” is not close to “What really did”.

    I think we can conclude that there is no effective air defenses in the Capitol, Kiev; and from that deduce there is likely even less anywhere less important.

    So I don’t see the veracity in the Ukrainian “reporter” from his temporary home. He clearly was doing “sellers puff” on the air defense assets. But can’t prove that Russia actually hit anything but a train repair station either. (Though were that the case, I’d expect some photos of blown up trains… the “empty space” of no photos at all from inside the “repair” building implies that isn’t something to show which implies there were military bits laying about… so a minor hint that there were tanks there.)

    And mostly you just can’t say either one is proved up.

  178. philjourdan says:

    @pgsharrow – he assumes Russia failed. Russia got hurt, but they have not failed. Their goal was not to take Kiev. Their goal was to freeze Ukraine soldiers in protecting territories they had no interest in to keep them out of eastern Ukraine.

    In that they succeeded. People forget that Russia is not about Blitzkrieg, but slow march of inevitability. In that they are winning. Even now the fake news is backtracking faster than Biden on what is going on. Putin knows what he is doing. Those who follow fake news are clueless.

  179. philjourdan says:

    @EMS – do you have to always upstage me with an even better rebuttal? :-)

    You said it better. I should have read further before responding.

    There are 2 things at play here. One is the fake news disinformation sponsored by the Biden administration. Anything that comes from them is false.

    The other is the facts on the ground. It appears that Russia is 90+% in control of eastern Ukraine, which was their goal from the outset! They faked to Kiev, and then turned to take out Donbas and the rest of Eastern Ukraine. The west tried to make this into WWIII. But the saner head (OMG! It is Putin) kept it local.

    Putin is playing the west like a harp from hell! But then the west is controlled by a harpie from hell/

  180. Jeff says:

    @philjourdan, that’s an accordeon from hell :D

    (oops, didn’t mean to step on your excellent pun… seems we’ve got the Harpy Valley PTA in DC)…

  181. philjourdan says:

    My line is stolen from Batman and the Penguin. So no stepping to worry about.

    I love Danny DeVito and that is the best line from that awful movie!

  182. YMMV says:

    This article is very helpful in understanding why the Ukraine is a problem and why there is no easy solution.

    https://www.rt.com/russia/556334-ukrainian-camp-nationalistic-narrative/
    “Alexander Nepogodin: Modern Ukraine was built on an anti-Russia foundation, but a large part of the country refused to play along”

    Alexander Nepogodin is аn Odessa-born political journalist, expert on Russia and the former Soviet Union.

    So there are three kinds of Ukrainians. It’s worse than we thought.

    something known as the “Subtelny line,” an imaginary split running through Ukraine and dividing it into different areas according to the ideology, beliefs and culture of the population.

    A quick search for a map of that line didn’t turn up anything.
    It did find this link:
    https://journals.openedition.org/belgeo/38812?lang=en
    “Phantom borders: the role in territorial identity and the impact on society”
    by Vladimir Kolosov
    (looks interesting; I have not yet read it)

  183. H.R. says:

    @YMMV – That ‘3-types’ is new information to me, and yes, I’d say that complicates things a bit.

    There are ani-Russians whose lineage probably goes back to those that survived Stalin’s starvation program. Then there are the Eastern Russians who were sent there to settle and solidify the Russian hold in the region.

    But I’m not sure what to make of the Ukrainians that “wouldn’t play along” with the hate Russia faction. Are these the descendants of maybe landed people or minor royals when Kiev was the capital of Russia? There would be quite a few of them given the number of generations that have passed. Are they people who are hardworking, have made a comfortable niche for themselves, and don’t care if it’s Russia or Ukraine in charge so long as no-one bothers them?

    The first two were brought up early as well as the back and forth over centuries of Russia/Ukraine becoming Ukraine/Russia and flipping again a time or two. That third group, who are not anti-Russian may be a big deal if there are a lot of them, and then maybe they are not really a factor at all.

    Interesting find, though.

    Oh dear! I forgot about those areas of Ukraine that were carved out of Poland. We knew that, but I don’t recall reading what their thoughts might be, and who, if anyone, they would back.

    Yup. It’s complicated.

  184. p.g.sharrow says:

    A short history lesson on the Russian Federation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqYZqNpLQb8 as well as a possible outcome to the present Russian / Ukraine war.

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