Ukraine, Just Some Headlines

Not a lot of analysis in this one. Just a listing of headlines and a little bit of commentary. This is what I’d call a high level survey. Like looking out the window to see the weather, you are just getting a quick view of things. Or surfing over 3 or 4 weather channels to see how many are calling for rain vs not.

In general, the tone looks like “Russia winning”. There’s a feint odor of desperation about the Ukrainian military status. Some of the articles pushing Vilify Russia or Vilify Putin narratives (often about war activities that are common or that The West in general or the USA in particular think fine if we do them – like cluster bombs or area bombing).

The general thrust of several of them is that Russian troops have better artillery and with no effective Ukrainian air support, this has become a ground game where the Russian Artillery reduced the Ukrainian Artillery and ground resistance, then Russia encircles with ground units and the Ukrainians either surrender or are “reduced” to nothing.

I think both sides have realized that tanks are not all that long lived on the modern battlefield until and unless you have both air dominance and effective destruction of the Other Side’s man portable anti-tank systems. We’re not quite yet back at trench warfare, but getting there. It was the tank that broke us out of that mode, but now we are back to artillery vs artillery… Interesting times.

I do wonder why Russia has not committed more air assets. With full air dominance, they ought to be able to take out all sorts of military bases, stockpiles, supply depots, command and control centers, etc. I’ve not been following this closely, so perhaps they have already; or maybe they are just being careful not to lose aircraft if they don’t need to expose them to get the regions they wanted. Just seems a bit odd to me. Then again I’m used to the US mode of massive air, ground not so much.

https://www.pressenza.com/2022/06/ukraine-is-losing-badly-and-things-are-about-to-get-much-worse-for-them-unless/

Ignores the probability that the “attack” on Kiev was a “Fixing Operation” designed to anchor forces near the capitol and not an actual attack for capture, but whatever.

Ukraine is Losing Badly and Things Are About to Get Much Worse for Them, Unless …
11.06.22 – US, United States – Mark Lesseraux

Russia’s Shift To Plan B After A Thwarted Initial Attempt

After a failed attempt at taking Kyiv in February and March that would have ended their special operation mission very quickly, Russia went on to its plan B which was to destroy the core of the Ukrainian army in the Donbas region of Ukraine. It’s been known from the beginning of this conflict that if Russia were to take the Donbas region that Ukraine would have very little to no chance of prevailing in turning back the much larger, more skilled and better armed Russian army.

[…]

So Far This June

During the first week and a half of June other towns and villages in the Donbas region have also been falling. Russian forces have since moved on to encircle Severodonetsk and Lysychansk and they are steadily breaking through their defenses layer by layer, generating heavy Ukrainian casualties.

On top of all this, two days ago there was a televised report delivered by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Kuzhugetovich Shoigu during which he confirmed that the land corridor from Russia to Crimea is now complete and in full operation. “Full fledged traffic” (2), road and rail, can now move from Russia through the Donbass region through to Kherzon and Saporischschja which are both now almost completely controlled by Russia.

The US Media Is Fanning The Flames Of War

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-risks-losing-artillery-war-russia-vadym-skibitsky-military-intelligence-1714782

OMG! The War Hawks have even lost Newsweak… One of their favored propaganda arms.

Ukraine’s at Risk of Losing War With Russia: Military Official
BY ZOE STROZEWSKI ON 6/10/22 AT 1:24 PM EDT

Russia’s attack on Ukraine has become a war of artillery, and Ukraine is at risk of losing, according to the deputy head of Ukrainian military intelligence.

Vadym Skibitsky told The Guardian in an interview published Friday that Ukraine is now heavily reliant on weapons provided by the West in its counteroffensive against Russia. Russia, meanwhile, currently outranks Ukraine in terms of artillery supplies, according to the official.

“Everything now depends on what [the West] gives us,” Skibitsky said. “Ukraine has one artillery piece to 10 to 15 Russian artillery pieces. Our Western partners have given us about 10 percent of what they have.”
[…]
Skibitsky told The Guardian that Ukraine is using between 5,000 and 6,000 artillery rounds every day. They have nearly run out of their own artillery ammunition and are using NATO-standard 155-caliber shells, he said.

Skibitsky said that even Ukraine’s Western arms suppliers are beginning to run low on stock.

“Europe is also delivering lower-caliber shells but as Europe runs out, the amount is getting smaller,” he said.

https://countercurrents.org/2022/06/ukraine-update-kiev-admits-it-is-losing-in-artillery-war-to-russia/

Ukraine Update: Kiev Admits It Is Losing In Artillery War To Russia
in World — by Countercurrents Collective — 11/06/2022

Ukraine acknowledges that it is losing artillery war to Russia.

Ukraine forces are almost out of ammunition and can only rely on Western-supplied arms in the battle against Russia, a top Ukrainian intelligence official has said.

“This is an artillery war now,” Vadim Skibitsky, the deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, told The Guardian on Friday.

Ranged combat is going to decide the outcome of the conflict between the two countries, “and we are losing in terms of artillery,” he acknowledged.

https://www.veteranstoday.com/2022/06/08/ukraine-losing/

Looks like some folks are starting to say the forbidden: That maybe, just perhaps, Russia had legitimate grievances…

Ukraine Is Losing Big Time, So Biden Ups the Ante, Risking World War III
By Kevin Barrett -June 8, 2022134869
By Kevin Barrett, for American Free Press

During the last week of May, the White House leaked an alarming story: Biden was preparing to send medium-range advanced rocket systems to Ukraine. Those rockets could be used by Ukrainian forces to hit targets in Russia. If that happened, Russia would undoubtedly retaliate and escalate—possibly by striking a NATO country bordering Ukraine. That could trigger Article 5, which would theoretically bring all of NATO, including the US, into the war. Within days or even hours, nuclear bombs could be raining down on American cities.

Then on May 30 Biden walked back the leak, saying that the US was “not going to send to Ukraine any rocket systems that can strike into Russia.” The world breathed a sigh of relief.

But the relief was short-lived. The very next day, Biden flip-flopped once again, announcing that, contrary to his previous announcement, the US would indeed be sending M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems to Ukraine. With a range of up to 190 miles (with the longest-range munitions) the M142 HIMARS could, if fired from Ukraine, hit much of western Russia. Moscow, the Russian capital, is less than 280 miles from the border…

If Russia is clearly the aggressor in this conflict, those who pushed it to attack are undoubtedly the United States, NATO and the Zelensky government. It is essential never to forget this. If American leaders had not reneged on their promises to Moscow, if NATO had not been constantly expanding, if France and Germany had been able to force Kiev to respect the Minsk agreements, and if Zelensky and his clique had not listened to the disastrous advice of their American mentors, we would not be here. Though there is no question of excusing Russia, to blame it alone for this conflict is a misrepresentation of reality, if not deliberate disinformation.

Since 2014, Kiev has conducted an absolutely reprehensible policy towards the Russian-speaking populations of the Donbass, prohibiting the use of their language, refusing any autonomy within Ukraine, and inundating them with harassment, embargoes and artillery fire —while nobody in Europe is allowed to denounce this scandalous situation, on the pretext that it would echo Russia’s arguments.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/13/russia-ukraine-war-what-we-know-on-day-110-of-the-invasion

I’ve edited out the places where “official” Ukrainian sources said, in essence: “Did not!”, as they have a long history now of flat out lying in their statements. (Ghost, kids waving goodbye,., etc_)

Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 110 of the invasion
Fierce street fighting continues in Sievierodonetsk, where Russian forces destroyed a bridge cutting off possible evacuation route

Russian forces have taken most of Sievierodonetsk, where fierce street fighting continues after a fire broke out at the Azot chemical plant, where hundreds of civilians are sheltering.
[…]
Russia’s defence ministry said its cruise missiles destroyed a large depot containing US and European weapons in Ternopil in western Ukraine on Sunday. The strike destroyed a “large depot of anti-tank missile systems, portable air defence systems and shells provided to the Kyiv regime by the US and European countries”, the ministry said,
[…]

Russian forces destroyed a bridge connecting the embattled eastern city of Sievierodonetsk to its twin city of Lysychansk, cutting off a possible evacuation route for civilians, according to local officials. Serhiy Haidai, the governor of Luhansk province, said on Sunday that the Russian military had destroyed a bridge over the Siverskyi River that linked the two cities.

Gee, the same Cluster Bombs the USA used / uses… So one BIG BOMB is better than a bunch of little ones? You’re still dead. But whatever.

Amnesty International has accused Russia of war crimes in Ukraine’s second largest city of Kharkiv. Hundreds of civilians have been killed by indiscriminate Russian shelling using widely banned cluster munitions and inherently inaccurate rockets, the agency said in a new report published on Monday. “Russian forces launched a relentless campaign of indiscriminate bombardments against Kharkiv. They shelled residential neighbourhoods almost daily, killing and injuring hundreds of civilians and causing wholesale destruction, often using widely banned cluster munitions.”

Security concerns raised by Turkey in its opposition to Finland’s and Sweden’s Nato membership applications are legitimate, Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said. “These are legitimate concerns. This is about terrorism, it’s about weapons exports,” Stoltenberg told a news conference in Finland on Sunday.

Turkey still being Friends Of Russia it seems…

https://news.yahoo.com/war-ukraine-latest-developments-082239925.html

Wonder what Turkey and Hungary will say about this…

Here are the latest developments in the war in Ukraine:

– Ukraine to get word on EU hopes –
Ukraine’s bid to become a candidate to join the EU will get a clear signal next week, the bloc’s chief Ursula von der Leyen announces in a surprise visit to Kyiv.

Von der Leyen says talks she held with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “will enable us to finalise our assessment by the end of next week”.
[…]
Sat, June 11, 2022, 4:22 AM·3 min read
In this article:

Volodymyr Zelensky
Volodymyr Zelensky
Sixth and current President of Ukraine

Here are the latest developments in the war in Ukraine:

– Ukraine to get word on EU hopes –
Ukraine’s bid to become a candidate to join the EU will get a clear signal next week, the bloc’s chief Ursula von der Leyen announces in a surprise visit to Kyiv.

Von der Leyen says talks she held with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “will enable us to finalise our assessment by the end of next week”.

It is the first time the EU has publicly given timing on when the commission will deliver its opinion. The bloc’s 27 member countries need to decide whether to allow Ukraine to start accession negotiations.

– Zelensky warns of food crisis –
Volodymyr Zelensky has urged international pressure to end a Russian naval blockade of Black Sea ports that has choked off his country’s grain exports, threatening a global food crisis.

“The world will face an acute and severe food crisis and famine, in many countries of Asia and Africa,” Zelensky says in a video addressed to the Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in Singapore.

– Ukrainians get Russian passports –
Authorities in the Moscow-occupied city of Kherson in southern Ukraine have handed out Russian passports to local residents for the first time, news agencies reported.

Russia’s TASS agency says 23 Kherson residents received a Russian passport at a ceremony through a “simplified procedure” facilitated by a decree signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in May.

– ‘Very difficult battles’ –
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says his country’s forces are involved in “very difficult battles”, including in the eastern Donbas region where Russia has focused its firepower.

“Ukrainian troops are doing everything to stop the offensive of the occupiers,” Zelensky says.

He adds in his address that Ukraine must “not allow the world to divert its attention away from what is happening on the battlefield”.

– ‘Out of ammo’ –
In the Mykolaiv region near the frontline in the south, the regional governor calls for urgent international military assistance.

“Russia’s army is more powerful, they have a lot of artillery and ammo. For now, this is a war of artillery… and we are out of ammo,” Vitaliy Kim says.

Then Newsleak again:

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-seizes-severodonetsk-center-ukraine-war-putin-favor-1715084

Russia Seizes Severodonetsk Center as Ukraine War Turns in Putin’s Favor
BY ISABEL VAN BRUGEN ON 6/13/22 AT 3:47 AM EDT

Russian troops forced Ukraine’s units out of central Severodonetsk, a strategically vital city in Ukraine’s eastern, the Ukrainian military said on Monday as Putin’s forces increasingly press forward in the Donbas region.

“In the Severodonetsk direction, the enemy, with the support of artillery, carried out assault operations in the city of Severodonetsk, had partial success, pushed our units away from the city center, the fighting continues,” the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said on Facebook.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/11/russia-ukraine-live-civilians-trapped-in-severodonetsk-factory-liveblog

BREAKING
Kyiv says it needs ‘heavy weapons parity’ to end war
BREAKING
Ukrainian troops in Severodonetsk must ‘surrender or die’: DPR official
[…]
News

Russia-Ukraine war
Ukraine latest updates: Moscow ‘destroys’ Western weapons depot

Ukraine news from June 12: Moscow claims it also shot down Ukrainian fighter jets in eastern region as fierce fighting continues in Severodonetsk.

By lin, Dalia Hatuqa, Hamza Mohamed and Linah Alsaafin
Published On 11 Jun 2022
11 Jun 2022

Russia announces its forces used Kalibr cruise missiles to destroy a large depot with US and European weapons in Ukraine’s Ternopil region.

An official in Ukraine’s southern region says Kyiv forces are “out of ammo” as battles rage with Russian troops.

Russia will respond “proportionately and appropriately” to a NATO buildup in Poland, an official declares.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy strikes a defiant note, promising “we will prevail” over Russian invaders.

Ukraine discloses about 800 people are hiding at the Azot plant in the besieged city of Severodonetsk.

Russian troops are preparing a new offensive against the city of Sloviansk, Ukraine’s military says.

Overall, looks like Russia is getting what it wants. Capture and integration of the Donbass and land bridge to Crimea (also with full integration with Russia).

Looks to me like the Ukraine is getting desperate. Phrases like “out of ammo” and requests for massive amounts of more armament reek of desperation.

So as usual “We’ll see”. Since I’m not there to observe on my own, I can’t have any actual information to work from. In war, ALL Sides push massive propaganda and the truth is often not known for decades afterward.

At this point it looks like it could end tomorrow (Ukraine basically surrenders and agrees to be neutral) or it could become W.W.III (Biden ships long range missiles) and any points in between. Decisions decisions…

Subscribe to feed

About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in News Related, Political Current Events. Bookmark the permalink.

83 Responses to Ukraine, Just Some Headlines

  1. p.g.sharrow says:

    This is about the best evaluation of facts on the ground that I have found so far;

  2. p.g.sharrow says:

    There is a tremendous amount of propaganda from both sides each with their own message that they want the world to hear. This is magnified by those that want to utilize the parts that they need to fit their own stories. The Russian Bots yell that their winning is inevitable so why fight. The Ukraine’s poor mouth it to get NATO to to rush additional supplies and help to them. The facts on the ground indicate that this is a grind it out battle where the east is gaining little ground at a frightful cost while Putin is losing support for his gambit to rebuild Greater Russia. And even more important Putin has forced the one thing he most feared. The Uniting of all the western world against him..

  3. philjourdan says:

    First – 2 general comments:
    #1 – When this started, I took the position that what the fake news media told us was a lie. THey have done nothing but lie to us for the past 6 years, why would they change now? More importantly, why would those who saw them lying to us for the last 6 years, all of a sudden pivot and start believing them? Stupid comes to mind
    #2 – Pretty much on target of what Pointman said would happen is coming to pass. Pointman did not give a timeline on when we would see his analysis born out, but he probably did not want to commit to something that would only become apparent long after it was a reality due to the fake news media covering for Ukraine. He did point out that Kiev was a holding action, and never a target.

    That being said, @p.g. – Yes, there is a tremendous amount of propaganda on both sides. The easiest way to see through it is to take whatever the fake news media says and reject it outright. That will not always be the entire truth, but it will be closer to the truth than any other source.

  4. p.g.sharrow says:

    @philjourden, when they all say the same story in the same words at the same time, You know that they are working from the same agenda for someone..
    Looks to me that the GEBs told Putin he had a green light. They set up to move the present Ukraine administration to another country as a “Government in Exile” and at the last minute The Ukrainians turned into patriots and said “hell no” we will fight! Now the game is afoot and the GEBs are in a catch up mode., So far their proxies like Biden says We are supporting the Ukraine but there seems to be all kinds of road blocks in between, as promised shipments are being blocked by mid-level functionaries. Putin is saying his forces are blowing up depots every time they score hit an industrial facility but there seems to be little or no secondaries going off. One “Tank” Depot was a railroad car repair facility that was not being used. The Russians have no air superiority and their pilots fear being sent out on missions. due to Ukraine air-forces as well as missile defenses. I would say nobody has air superiority over the battle field there. Mostly artillery and missile attacks with limited ground troop activities.

  5. another ian says:

    Fits about here

    “THE PARADIGM SHIFT IN WAR”

    https://richardsonpost.com/adam-piggott/27408/the-paradigm-shift-in-war/

  6. E.M.Smith says:

    @P.G.:

    I’ll believe it when I see it, three times from three non-involved nations news…

    Until then, all we can say is all sides are lying and no source is trustworthy.

    What I’ve seen so far is that Russia is mostly closed mouthed (or censorship is strong) while Ukraine regularly and provably lies extensively claiming massive successes later shown to be bogus.

    Now Ukraine is saying out of ammo and send more money. Lie or not?

    While Russia is slowly grinding out what they originally said was the goal state, per releases from all sides. Lie or truth?

    For my money (and I’d not bet more than 25 ¢ on it…) it looks like Russia did a bit of a number on Central Ukraine to make counter force actions hard and screw up their economic strength, put a fixing force threatening Kieve, then withdrew it to Belarus et.al. with minimal engagement, all while taking exactly the places where the most ethic Russians live, which was his stated goal. ALL the statements of wanting to re-establish the Glory Of Old Soviet Union is based on his saying the breakup was a bad mistake. That’s really weak tea. So I’d say it looks a LOT more like Putin is doing exactly what he said he was going to do, and is grinding out the win.

    But we’ll know in about 3 months to a year, IMHO.

    I’d also point out that most likely 90% of all the promised money will end up in the pockets of DNC Friends & Family, the Money Laundry of Ukraine, and arms dealers. Little will make it to the grunts. Almost none in time.

    All while the EU is preparing for strangulation on their own sanctions as they have shut down their own fuel and fertilizer supplies. Great move there. /sarc; And the USA has enough inflation to assure failure of our economy in the next 9 months or so, all while Russia, China, & India have set up a great bypass of the Western Money Changers stranglehold. Russia & China are very definitely winning the Economic Sanctions War. Oh, and China can manufacture for Russia any “western” parts they need, having stolen or bribed all the information needed and having the factories to make it now too (since we shipped those factories there).

    Mil Spec Gear rarely needs the latest and greatest. Usually about 20 years back by the time it is in the field. Once about the late ’80s? I was trying to help my wife’s Uncle source 16 K RAM chips when most of silicon valley had moved on to a couple of generations newer and larger. Nobody was making 16K anymore but that was what his cruise missile factory needed, So they can certainly make replacement parts for Russian gear.

    When I look at it from the Russian POV, it looks reasonable. From the Ukraine POV, it looks desperate. From the USA / EU POV, it looks like we’re screwing ourselves.

  7. H.R. says:

    @p.g. – Definitely the GEBs and the DoS/CIA miscalculated. This is not going at all like they planned.

    Very early on, the analysis of the Blogger Armchair Generals (BAGs? Meh, I don’t really like that one) was that this was a proxy war, and the U.S. was ready and willing to fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian.

    Even in the YSM, there was talk that the overall strategy was to make this war drag on and on forever and just bleed out Putin, Russia’s economy, and their military.

    The U.S. was trying to get the neighboring NATO countries to commit troops and arms, and some (most?) did send some arms, but on the main they all said they weren’t playing. Remember that incident where the U.S. wanted Poland to use their aircraft? I can’t recall it exactly, but Poland said that if the U.S. wanted those planes in the air, we’d have to come over and fly them ourselves.

    Anyhow, I’m still in wait and see mode. But as far as things not going to plan; what else is new in a war?

  8. philjourdan says:

    @p.g. – You really overshot the mark! No, the GEBs never gave Putin the green light! They hate Putin! You are missing the whole thing! Ukraine is losing. Putin is winning. The GEBs are on Ukraine’s side! They want Putin gone! Putin is no hero to the anti-GEB side, he just decided he is not going to cave!

    Let me make it simple, Putin is in it for himself. But in doing so, he is pissing off the GEBs, which are in it for themselves!

    There are no good guys in this. There are only bad and worse!

    If you are a good guy, you want the bad guys to destroy each other!

    That will never happen. But try to understand that the bad guys are fighting each other and stay out of the way!

  9. E.M.Smith says:

    My problem with ALL of the “Russia running out of troops” articles and claims is pretty simple. We’ve had them for a few months now and yet no evidence for it on the ground. For example:
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10618647/Ukraine-war-Russia-faces-manpower-problem-draws-reinforcements.html

    Putin’s manpower problem: Russia ‘is drafting in troops from Siberia and the Pacific as well as Syrians and mercenaries’ in desperate attempt to get stalled Ukrainian invasion going after punishing losses

    Russia has sustained heavy losses fighting in Ukraine, with UK intelligence saying Putin is trying to reinforce
    But with a huge amount of Russia’s army already committed, he is having to go far abroad for extra men
    Troops are being pulled from eastern Siberia, the Pacific Fleet, Armenia, Syria and mercenary forces, UK says
    US intelligence also believes Russia is looking to reinforce, and has reached out to China for supplies
    By CHRIS PLEASANCE FOR MAILONLINE

    PUBLISHED: 09:16 EDT, 16 March 2022 | UPDATED: 11:45 EDT, 16 March 2022

    March… April… May… June…. So it’s been about 3 MONTHS of supposedly increasingly dire losses and plummeting troop levels and “Mounting Russian Losses”; Yet Russia keeps taking more of what it said it wanted…

    That has led some to predict that Putin’s invasion could soon be a spent force. Yesterday, UK defence sources said that ‘culmination point’ for the Russian army is likely to come within the next 14 days – meaning the point at which the might of Ukrainian forces will outweigh the strength of the attackers.

    So after a few months of that, I think it’s fair to discount it…

    Real Soon Now Ukraine will overrun Russia… sure it will… /snark;

  10. jim2 says:

    Here’s another log for the fire …

    The lid blew off the Ukraine echo chamber this week as Russian artillery pulverized Ukrainian forces in Donbas. Ukraine has lost 10,000 dead, 40,000 to 50,000 wounded, and 8,000 captured. It is running out of Soviet-era ammunition for its limited artillery. A month ago the whole American body politic, from progressive left to neo-conservatives, drank the victory Kool-Aid. Remember when Russia’s incompetent, corrupt army was about to be swept from the field? As is their wont, the Russians blundered around and took losses for a few weeks before figuring out how to wage an old-fashioned, World War II-style artillery campaign. “It’s been so long since anyone fought a conventional war that they had to remember how to do it,” said a European military observer.

    https://pjmedia.com/spengler/2022/06/13/the-ukraine-echo-chamber-goes-full-chernobyl-n1605057

  11. Taz says:

    It’s a mistake to write off the Ukrainians just yet. They haven’t yet adapted. The Russians have.

    If the Ukrainians keep fighting like Russians – they’ll lose. But it appears that “professional army” rot has deep roots within both armies.

    My biggest fear is that Ukrainians keep will focusing on real estate/maps instead of their people and preservation of property. Just give the city to those Russians. They might not knock it down. Then kill those Russians in their “captured” city.

    The Chechen rebels could have done something if they had the vast expanse of Ukraine to work with…..https://sniperflashcards.com/tactics.php
    https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/2002/MOUTThomas.htm

    “According to the Russian description of their own forces, they had nearly 24,000 men, 19,000 from the armed forces and 4,700 from the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) Internal Forces. ”

    “The Russians believed that Dudayev’s men totaled some 10,000 in the city, and that they were armed with up to 80 D-30 122mm howitzers, 25 tanks, and 35 BTRs and BMPs.[11] A few multiple rocket launchers were also among the Chechens’ equipment, as seen on local television reports. The Chechen account of their force size is different. Ilias Akhmadov, a fighter during the first battle for Grozny and now the republic’s foreign minister, stated that only 450 Chechen fighters were “permanent” while the others were locals or those who came from neighboring villages. The republic’s Vice President at the time, Yanderbaiyev, believed the number was closer to 4,500-6,000. The actual size of the Chechen force thus remains in doubt.”

    Did you know the Ukrainians still haven’t issued those Mossbergs with bayonets we sent them?

    The Ukrainians have the same problem we did with Tora Bora. Our highly trained “professional” military was loath to rush in and kill the Bin Laden. “You do it, no you do it.” Weeks later they sent in a bunch of dumb kid Marines who DID do it. But Osama was already gone.

    The Ukrainians need true scalp hunters. Killers. That is all.

    Americans excelled at WW1 trench warfare…because they didn’t fight it. Forensic archeologists have found nothing but .45 casings at those sites. Few rifle casings. It now appears that the US Army has secrets. They never publicized just how many Germans fell to shotguns, 45 pistols and hand to hand. It was all very ancient. Had nothing to do with “technology”. Photographers were instructed to NEVER photograph shotguns with US soldiers. The Canadians were reputed to be even more terrible butchers.

    The Ukrainians want to win wars with wonder weapons. Just like the Germans. Just like the Russians.

    The new rule of war is “shoot them in the face”. No armor there. Hard to do with an assault rifle.

  12. YMMV says:

    What I’ve seen so far is that Russia is mostly closed mouthed (or censorship is strong) while Ukraine regularly and provably lies extensively claiming massive successes later shown to be bogus.

    Z’s MO is a world wide PR campaign: “Help me!”
    P’s MO is “get’r’ done”.

    With WW1 style trench warfare, nobody wins. The fighting continues, possibly for a long time.
    Neither Z nor P seem to be the kind to give up.

  13. philjourdan says:

    @Taz – I was there 48 years ago. Greeks and Turks! I do not need a parody of it again.

    Ukraine is not Greece and Russia is not Turkey. But the western fake news media is a turkey!

  14. Ed Forbes says:

    Google trend for Ukraine now near zero.
    https://www.moonofalabama.org/

  15. Taz says:

    Not my words. Used here only to illustrate that generals don’t win wars. And that successful tactics oftentimes are just locally discovered luck.

    My WROL, SHTF, Mad Max, “the Road” apocalypse weapon is a milspec pump shotgun, with a factory bayonet lug. if the person survives TEOTWAWKI, we will eventually be reduced to 18th century living. Eventually ammo runs out. A person can have a hand reload kit, even make black powder, and stock up many primers in a very small amount of space. The black powder loads will not cycle a semi auto action, so pump action solves this. The shotshells can be reloaded with less precise tolerance than a rifle casing, so it seems to be the longest term post collapse firearm, except an actual flintlock (which might be a last resort). But the shotgun holds usually less than 9 rounds total and is a very close work weapon. You can shoot yourself defenseless very quick! So one could forsee the need for a bayonet in a close combat situation. This was the case for the World War One US shotgun teams infiltrating German Trenches.

    These were 5 man teams, two point men shooters, two men behind them with spare shotguns and a bag of shells to reload the shotguns, and a rear guard with a bolt action rifle. The team would infiltrate a German trench, which were all zig zag afffairs (both the Ukrainians and Russians are using such trenches) so no machine gun could wipe out an entire company with plunging fire. So the US team would sneak up on a zig zag corner and jump out, and rush forward with two gunners blasting away til empty, and reach back to the loaders for the spare fresh shotgun and blast away again. if that did not finish the job sometimes the last of the job was to bayonet the remaining Germans before they could fire back.

    After the very strong German protests, no one in the US military spoke the “shotgun” word. It was verboten. They were also quiet about their other cheat – those large caliber pistols. Remember, these guys did not want to be there. They were unified in getting things done and getting home..

    I’m not a collector of military stuff. Bought my first AR-15 derivative only last week, just BECAUSE politicians. Most everything else is single shot hunting rifles. Am beginning to see the light though.

    Similarly, the Ukrainians must “see the light” and get past this constant obsession with uber artillery. The Russians and Ukrainians have turned this war into a dick waving contest instead of just “killing your opponent”. Artillery destroys everything.

    Imagine how fast history could change if a single individual managed to insert a bullet into Putin’s brain….or just remove some vatniks from Ukraine.

  16. Taz says:

    Well, this is funny:

    Fuat
    @lilygrutcher
    ·
    8h
    Afghan FM:”Taliban will never recognize Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine. Even if Russia recognizes our own government.”

  17. Taz says:

    @philjourdan

    Sorry, not following you. Relationship of this conflict to Greece and Turkey? Except that both peoples might be so related, it mirrors the tragedy of Russian and Ukraine at each other’s throats?

    I truly wish that Russia and Ukraine had never embarked on this fight. Hopeless sadness. Did not need to be.

  18. jim2 says:

    Russia is scraping across the country to find manpower and weapons, including old tanks based in the Far East, having used up much of its military capacity in the first 100 days of its invasion of Ukraine, according to senior European officials with knowledge of the situation on the ground.

    As a result, Russia may be only a few months from needing to slow operations for a major regroup, these people said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss matters that aren’t public.

    The Kremlin might also be forced to announce a mass mobilisation in order to call up soldiers to continue the fight, the people said, though that’s something President Vladimir Putin so far has been reluctant to do as it would amount to a public admission the war isn’t going as planned.

    https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3181752/russia-turns-old-tanks-it-burns-through-weapons-ukraine-european

  19. philjourdan says:

    @Taz – relationship to a spat 48 years ago?

    How about they lied then, and they are lying now. Ukraine has lost. But you do not see that in the fake news media. 48 years ago, Nato pissed on Turkey, but you did not see that in the fake news media!

    Nothing has changed in 50 years. Except the names of the competitors. But not the names of the liars.

  20. philjourdan says:

    @jim2 – yea, Russia is dead, Except the Ukraine military is effectively neutralized and Russia has accomplished its initial goals.

    Believe in fake news, and always be wrong.

  21. H.R. says:

    @jum2 – Thanks for the various pieces on the Ukraine/Russia situation. They weren’t anything I would have found.

    The before and after photos of the shelled buildings and fields were as close as it comes to propaganda-free reporting. “There it is, blown to smithereens.”

    Of course, it’s not the whole story, but I’d think it’s not the only place the Russian artillery has flattened. How much more, a lot or a little? Who knows?

    I also liked that link to the South China Post source. It smells of propaganda to me, but the way it was written seemed like they were leaving themselves an out for the next article just in case Russia doesn’t have to call in troops from everywhere else. I was seeing maybes and mights in that piece. Also, I wasn’t seeing much cheerleading compared to our US YSM propaganda.

  22. jim2 says:

    RE: WW I shotguns:

    The American Army entered the fray in 1917. The Great War was essentially still fought, by both sides, using 19th-century tactics against 20th-century weapons such as the machine gun and more accurate artillery. This had led to tremendous casualties. General Pershing and the U.S. Army General Staff were determined not to commit the same mistakes committed by the combatants in the war’s first three years.

    Pershing and the American staff had an idea about breaking the stalemate in the trenches and force the battle into the open countryside, which the Europeans were loath to do.

    Pershing and many of the American officers had served in the Philippines. There, they had seen firsthand how devastating shotguns firing buckshot were at close range.

    The U.S. knew that the Germans would amass their assault troops in the trenches before conducting large-scale assaults. Therefore, the American plan was to disrupt the assault troops, before they could attack, by using shotguns at close range.

    https://sofrep.com/news/the-trench-shotguns-of-wwi-were-uniquely-american/

  23. Taz says:

    @philjourdan

    The fake news agrees with you. All of them. “Ukraine keeps losing”. So why aren’t you the contrarian by rejecting THEIR assessment? :)

    Me? I doan know nuttin….but am waiting/watching for that Crimea bridge to be taken down :) Seems that last shipment of HIMARS had a few “special” goodies included. Oopps. Well, aall rockets look the same (shrug).

    What if the Ukes commit just enough troops to tie up the Russian advance and make it messy – while their other guys go hunting for easier targets deep inside “The Russian Zone”. What if they introduce chaos into the game? Maybe some Russian autists will immobilize themselves to think about it?

    “Wait, wait, that’s not the way you’re supposed to fight. First you level their city and then they surrender. What’s wrong with you Ukes? Can’t you play war the right way?”

    Maybe Ukes could get matador training? Then shoot their nuts.

  24. Taz says:

    https://www.rt.com/russia/557235-crimean-bridge-threat-ukraine/

    If it happens, the REEEEEE will be phenomenal.

  25. Taz says:

    This one was interesting. I would have thought they would be solidly on the Russian side?

    https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/06/16/rryg-j16.html

  26. philjourdan says:

    @Taz – so you say, So quote them! They are starting to come around to that conclusion, but provide proof! (with dates and times of their conversions) You cannot because they have not!

    My case rests.

  27. philjourdan says:

    @Taz – I said fake news! Not RT news or real news, Think CNN, PMSNBC, NBC, CBS, ABC, NYT, LAT, WAPO, oh what ever as they are all fake news!

  28. H.R. says:

    @Taz – That World Socialist Web Site made me laugh. Whose side are they on? The current U.S. Socialist Transition Team, with pResident Brandon as the figurehead, is more socialist than Putin’s Russia.

    Most everyone here has stated that they believe it’s all propaganda, from everyone on all sides, with precious little verifiable info coming out.

    So… whose side are the World Socialists on, the Socialists of the U.S. gubbmint or Putin the non-socialist tyrant? I certainly can’t figure that one out, but I’m willing to bet a dozen donuts (that’s $200 now with inflation 😉) that the article has little to do with facts on the ground. More propaganda, but for which side?

  29. YMMV says:

    jim2: “Therefore, the American plan was to disrupt the assault troops, before they could attack, by using shotguns at close range.”

    I never heard that, so my question is, if they can get that close (which I understand was really hard), why not use grenades instead?

  30. jim2 says:

    YMMV – See Taz’s story above about the WW I shotguns.

  31. E.M.Smith says:

    @Jim2:

    The problem I have with such stories as “Russia scraping for troops” is that Russia has an annual new troop draft. Just happened a few weeks ago and something like 130,000 new recruits. Putin went out of his way to say they were not going to Ukraine. Just the regular annual draft of young men for their 1 year? 2 year? service stint – then off to the “reserves”.

    So if you have 130,000 you are not bothering to head that way, exactly how dire is this shortage?

    Frankly, it just fits the mold of (already evidenced many times) western Rah Rah! Propaganda more than being in concordance with evidence.

    It could be. It is possible. But a stronger fit, IMHO, is to this story:

    Putin took the areas he wanted. He’s got a load of troops who have been in the fighting for a while now. They are now battle tested / hardened, and it’s time to reward them with replacements. So round up the “2nd Tier” or maybe even 3rd… folks, and swap them in for “peacekeeping” and clean up operations. Retire the ones in place now to the rear for some R&R and Victory Parades.

    The only way I see, to claim that narrative is false, is to assert that Putin’s Real Goal ™ all along was to take ALL of Ukraine and he got whipped at Kiev. Yet we know his columns rolling on Kiev just made a threat posture, then flat out halted in place.. The West spun this as “Too Stoopid, the Russians ran out of fuel!!!” (without anyone able to see the gas gauges…), but I think that very unlikely. Far more likely, IMHO, is that this was a Fixing Operation and they chose to halt in place and not lose equipment in battle for a fixing operation.

    So again, there’s a LOT more loose ends in the Western Narratives and a LOT more dodgy assumptions about goals that can not be known. On the other side, everything “just fits” the notion of Putin taking the Russian speaking historically Russian areas, and now consolidating with less experienced and less valuable troops and gear.

  32. E.M.Smith says:

    I also think this matters. We’ve seen, what, a few dozen tanks blown up? Call it a few hundred actually blown up but only a few dozen make the media?
    https://www.hitc.com/en-gb/2022/02/26/how-many-tanks-does-russia-have/

    HOW MANY TANKS DOES RUSSIA HAVE?
    As per Global Firepower, Russia has around 12,500 in tanks in 2022.

    On top of this, the country has 30,000 other armoured vehicles, 6,500 self propelled artillery, 7,500 towed artillery and 3,300 rocket projectors.

    This means that Russia’s land forces total at around 60,000 military vehicles.

    The country also has just over 4,000 aircraft and 600 naval vessels.

    So, yeah, 12,000. Russia could lose 1000 tanks and not really notice. What’s the breakdown on era / capability? VERY short on new most modern, increasing numbers of older. So, were I in charge, I’d use the newest sparingly and as needed. I’d also replace any / all of them with older units in various “sit around and keep the peace / stop early counter thrust” operations and remove the newer ones to the rear for maintenance / tune up R&R etc. So as to have them ready to rush in if needed…. IN KEEPING with Russian DOCTRINE. Worst in first, best in last.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_main_battle_tanks_by_country

    Beware people who say things like “Russia only has a few hundred active modern tanks left!”

    That ignores the huge number of (still very capable) tanks that they have parked in the barn as they just don’t need them right now.

    Russia
    
    T-72	2,030 (active), 8,000 (in storage)	 Soviet Union	850 T-72B3, 550 T-72B3M, and 630 T-72B are in operation,[59] More of the T-72B's in storage will be upgraded to T-72B3 standard and redeployed.
    
    T-80	480 (active), 3,000 (in storage)	 Soviet Union	480 T-80BVM are in operation.[59] 3,000 T-80B tanks in storage will be upgraded to T-80BVM standard and redeployed.
    
    T-90	417 (active), 200 (in storage)	 Russia	All existing T-90 variants will be modernised to T-90M from 2020 to 2025.
    
    T-14 Armata	20+ (active)	 Russia	100 planned
    

    So, yeah, only 20 of their very newest latest and greatest. Only 417 of the quite capable T-90 active ATM and a similar T80 count of 480. But look at the garage! 3,000 more of them available if needed. Then dropping back to the T-72 (still a very capable tank): 2000 of them running around and another 8000 in the barn if desired to use them.

    Now I don’t know if they have 11,000 tank crews but given their “draft everyone every year, train them, then off to the reserves”, I think it highly probable they have crews if they want / need them.

    So if you are in a largely ground war with a largely outnumbered opposition that’s moved mostly to artillery, where tanks are mostly being used for defense of areas already captured and as ersatz mobile artillery, do you use your 20 best attack tanks, or pull them back and push forward the ones you have by the hundreds that are just as capable in that role (even if not so good in a tank on tank battle)?

    The narrative of “Putin scraping the bottom of the tank barrel and pulling old nearly useless tanks out of mothballs”, IMHO, misses the reality of how you would use valuable equipment vs older gear that can do a particular job just as well. Just like you don’t use an aircraft carrier for drug runner interdiction, but use older smaller boats instead. IF all I need is a few tanks sitting on key intersections to the areas I have captured, to discourage random attacks and / or alert me that there’s a counterattack underway: Would I park my newest and best there? Or some “good enough” from the garage?

    That’s how I’d deploy my assets if that list of tanks was what I had available. I’d be using that 2000 active T-72 tanks just about everywhere I could and anything newer would be held back as a reinforcement rear force. Only sent in if things were going sideways with the T-72s, and the newer specialized abilities of the T-90 & T-14 were needed.

  33. E.M.Smith says:

    @YMMV:

    In a zig or zag of a trench, a hand grenade will kill them, and you… You can’t know just where to “lob” it over the top but you can know which way to point the shotgun as you come around the corner….

    @Per Shotguns:

    My current “go to” for EOTWAWKI is a pump 12 ga shotgun with 9 rd capacity and short bbl (optional rifled bbl too ;-)

    Per Mag Capacity: Remember that you can do a “walking reload” and your effective magazine capacity is the size of bag you can sling on. Shoot a couple, stuff a couple up the ramp, shoot a couple, stuff a couple up the ramp (as you look for new targets).

    Add a couple of high capacity 9mm as ‘reserve’ and you are pretty much good to go for a few dozen…

    The ‘trench broom” was so effective that the Germans issued an order to execute on sight anyone found using one against them. Geneva and surrender rules be damned.

  34. E.M.Smith says:

    Oh, and per HIMARS:

    Russia is who matters in terms of “What is Russian Territory” as they are the ones who will be deciding on the retribution.

    Russia considers Crimea to be Russia (and with VERY good reasons. It was Russia for a few hundred years until the Ukrainian Khrushchev ILLEGALLY transferred it to Ukraine. Illegal as USSR law required a vote of the Duma, which never happened. So an illegal transfer means it is legally still Russia.)

    Russia has said any use of long range missiles “donated” by the USA, against what Russia considers to be Russian Territory will be met with “appropriate” responses (potentially up to nuclear).

    Tote that all up and what do you get? The Idiots In Charge here are deliberately “calling Putin’s bluff”… except Putin doesn’t bluff very much at all. IMHO, we are playing chicken with someone who is quite happy to crash into us in his armored car…

    My best guess is that Putin will use his weapons to destroy on arrival such arms, not wait for them to be deployed. I’d not be at all surprised to see Kiev reduced to rubble along with anywhere the HIMARS are shipped, unloaded, stored, prepped, or deployed also bombed into dust. That might very well include some US Ships, German bases, whatever.

    Putin knows that if you call a red line, and the other guy steps over it, you go at him with everything you have so all the other SOBs behind him realize that YOUR red lines are very real, and painted with the blood of anyone who ignores them. That is my read on the man.

    So shipping HIMARS into that context is suicidal (just wondering who’s suicide… Dancing Tights, Ukraine, NATO, USA, Biden, whatever… Though it could be a ‘mutual slaying’ with Putin in the mix too – depending on how much glows in the dark after the first salvo is launched…)

  35. Ed Forbes says:

    A very good review of Russian problems with infantry numbers and the problems they face because of this issue.
    .
    On the long side and it does get “into the weeds” of the issue. If you are interested in detail, well worth the time.
    .

  36. YMMV says:

    You know that Minsk Deal that Russian was complaining that Ukraine did not honor?

    It turns out that Ukraine never intended to honor it; it was just a stall to build up the military.
    So says the Ukrainian that made that deal.

    https://www.rt.com/russia/557307-poroshenko-comments-minsk-agreement/
    “Minsk deal was used to buy time – Ukraine’s Poroshenko”

  37. E.M.Smith says:

    @Ed Forbes:

    Good video. I’ve a few tiny things that are “sand in the teeth” about it, but not much. Mostly it seems cluefull even if it is a bit biased against Russia (though not a lot).

    One example: The harping on “obsolete equipment”. Um, hit with a 2200 FPS .30 Caliber is just as effective if it comes from a W.W.I bolt action, a W.W. II bolt or semi-auto, or a “modern” semi-auto.

    There was the Lee Enfield “Mad Minute” that was incredibly lethal for generations… At one time in the ’90s I was Very Interested in getting an Indian made Lee Enfield in .308 Nato (no longer available near as I can tell). I’d still rather have one of them than some of the strange “modern” gear.

    My Dad went into battle with an 8 round capacity M1 Garand in W.W.II and was quite happy with it, as another example.

    MY preferred “battle rifle” is in fact a 10 rd capacity SKS Carbine with stripper clips. I can load them faster than I can re-load 30 rd “magazines”. My most preferred “defense and surprise! you are in a battle” gun is a 9 round PUMP action shotgun and a big bag of rounds hung off the shoulder. Puts more .30 caliber lead pellets per minute down range than many kinds of machine guns.

    My point? Just that saying the word “obsolete” over and over again does not stop you from becoming very dead very fast from said “obsolete” weapon.

    In Particular:

    A bolt action is very easy to understand, train, and use. A Semi-Auto not so much. A Selective Fire Semi-Auto very much not easy as most folks put most rounds into the air over the heads of their targets…

    So…. Were I doing rapid minimal training of a set of conscripts to go shoot people, I’d rather have a load of nice accurate bolt action rifles than a load of 30 round magazine fed selective fire capable military rifles. The first one takes about 10 minutes to getting rounds on target, the other one??? Mostly good for “spray and pray”. Now, if ammunition supply is limited, I’d strongly prefer the bolt even for myself. Fire Discipline – it’s a thing.

    That he “poo poos” the bolt action as “obsolete” is at least an annoyance, at most, a mistake.

    what I don’t know (but suspect he has right): To what extent is the Russian Infantry “missing in action” just so Putin need not “call up” the ready reserves… and call a war a war…

  38. vcmathjm says:

    A disturbing short video from Gazalo Lira in the Ukraine
    “A Message for Americans”

  39. p.g.sharrow says:

    @Ed Forbes: your link article is about the most accurate report that I have read / watched. Putin is nowhere near the uber dictator that he is portrayed, He has to operate within constraints set into Russian Federation law. Russia signed a treaty that set the modern boundaries of Ukraine that are recognized in international law that can not be changes by .Putin’s dictates of what he wants to observe. The recent Russian Duma declaration that they no longer recognize the independence of the Baltic states.is proof that this is already a threat to all of eastern Europe. The recreation of the Greater Russian Empire is the objective of Russian leadership. BUT Russian Federation law says they can not use the full weight of all the Federation’s military until It is invaded and the Russian are very tired of wars being launched in their name.
    Putin is using Contracted Solders Mercenaries not Federation Conscripts to wage his Special military actions. the only conscripts he is using are Eastern Ukraine locals from the break away states. These are being thrown into battle with OLD equipment and little training to resist the western Ukraine government troops that are slowly giving up land to shred eastern forces and equipment as they await arrival of Western equipment and supplies..
    WESTERN politicians are pushing the GEB Idea that Ukraine MUST surrender to Putin’s demands to save them from the risk of a real war. They have been pushing that they want a return to the old Eastern corrupt ways that benefits them. Ukraine says no more and want to fight to return to the treaty borders that are recognized in international law. GOD and the western world will no longer permit the “rule of might makes right” in these matters.. The Russian people destroyed the Soviet Union and they will destroy Putin’s dream for a Great Russian Empire as well ..

  40. E.M.Smith says:

    @vcmathjm:

    That Gazalo video is a bit of a worry… FWIW, it was in the SPAM folder. Nothing in it looked like anything a filter would find, so I can only assume somebody was trying to kill the video by marking it, in particular, as SPAM WordPress wide. But I fished it back out.

    I had heard that the Duma (Russian congress) had passed some resolution saying the Baltic States were no longer considered free and independent states, but wondered why they would do such a thing. Then, in that Video, he claimed that Lithuania had cut off Russian access via rail to the Russian area of Kaliningrad. Another of those things agreed as a precursor to the ending of the Soviet Union was perpetual and un-hindered rail access. So Yet Another Western Broken Promise…

    I thought nobody would be that dumb. Gazalo must be making this up or misunderstood or… Nope:

    https://www.independentsentinel.com/serious-escalation-lithuania-blocks-russia-from-kaliningrad/

    Serious Escalation! Lithuania Blocks Russia From Kaliningrad
    By M Dowling -June 18, 20221108

    Lithuanian authorities have banned the transit through their territory of goods to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. The national rail service issued the report.

    The enclave is home to the Russian Baltic Fleet and a deployment location for Moscow’s nuclear-capable Iskander missiles.
    It is sandwiched on the Baltic coast between Lithuania and Poland. Both are NATO members. Kaliningrad has no land border with Russia.

    This is asking for war and it’s insane. Russia could squash them like a bug. This could be the impetus for Russia to let loose. No matter what the media tells you, Russia has exercised restraint.

    Just OMG.

    IF as Gazalo claims, Lithuania and Poland are also moving troops up toward Kaliningrad, this is basically an act of war. Embargo is a war action and massing troops on the border implies invasion is intended. Essentially they are treating Kaliningrad as a Russian “pocket” to be starved out.

    Now it makes sense why the Duma would make that “finding”. It is a necessary precursor to running a modest sized army down that rail line to “liberate” and “rescue” Kaliningrad.

    It sure looks to me a LOT like the European GEBs are working hard to have a USA vs Russia war so that the two places most resisting their One World Order both get reduced by each other.

    They have said they want most of us dead. How better to get it done quickly than via a nuclear war between the two of us. With their Puppet Biden on the nuclear switch, it is also an easy time for them to have a USA first strike. Just tell Biden he gets a few $Billion in the bank…

    This is just insanity on steroids. Brings a whole new meaning to “poking the bear”.

    I would hope that Putin is just cagey enough to not take the bait. Keep Kaliningrad supplied by sea, turn off any gas to Poland / Lithuania, and ask if they would mind turning the rail lines back to “open” so they can turn the gas back on. NOT run troops down the train track to “secure” it… At least not until Ukraine is a done deal…

  41. Phil Salmon says:

    Excellent analysis, thanks!

    I do wonder why Russia has not committed more air assets.

    I suspect strongly that the USA has committed 100% electronic warfare resources to Ukraine, severely compromising Russian electronic communications within Ukraine. However – as you point out – Russia can gain her objectives without committing and endangering massive air resources.

  42. Taz says:

    How would you confirm or disprove this video? What sources could you trust?

  43. Taz says:

    @E.M.Smith “obsolete equipment”

    Spot on. Worse, the “new doctrine” seems to be “send 29ea artillery shells” to eliminate a squad of Wagner troops (have video). Ditto when you intend to “capture” a city. Both sides are doing this. It”s insane. No different than these gamer wars Pentagon planners are enthralled with…

    Seems like no civilian interests are ever given weight by these “professional” military men.

  44. Taz says:

    Know nothing of artillery units, their organization, their siting, their manpower. So please educate if you can…

    One of the big mysteries of this war is why Ukraine isn’t doing everything possible to silence Russian guns. By killing those who can operate them, then destroying the barrel (thermite?).
    Just can’t understand how artillery can destroy other artillery. The barrel remains, and anything else can be fixed.

    So explain why Ukrainian bandits aren’t roaming the earth killing Russian artillerymen and destroying barrels. Explain like you are working with a slow person.

  45. Taz says:

    @H..R.

    “That World Socialist Web Site” . Definitely a trip to the twilight zone. I don’t understand it either.

  46. Phil Salmon says:

    One of the funniest things – in a dark sort of way – is that American generals and politicians are now complaining that they’re running out of Ukrainians. Apparently 200k or so have gone AWOL (https://www.vikendi.net/2022/06/08/us-general-surprised-200000-ukrainian-soldiers-disappeared/)

  47. E.M.Smith says:

    About the Socialist Website: I didn’t see that much crazy talk from them in the linked page. They seemed to have a fairly ordinary grasp of the war. What has you folks calling “crazy talk” about them?

    @Taz:

    Some words:

    Armour: Vehicles with lots of heavy metal to protect their guts and the men in them. Often with big guns on them that look a lot like Artillery, but isn’t as the range is very much shorter. So a Tank might have a range out to 4 miles… but long range artillery goes 25 or even 50… There are also things that look like tanks with giant guns on them that are self-mobile Artillery. And another thing that looks like self-mobile artillery but is in fact a “tank killer” (essentially a tank with too little armor and a way bigger gun that, if it gets the first shot off, kills a tank – and if it doesn’t see the tank first is dead first…) In short: Size Matters and artillery has the biggest guns.

    Artillery: Really Big Guns that can lob Really Big Shells that explode a long ways away. (Exact sizes and distances change over time a lot. But figure about 120 mm – 155 mm or 4 to 6 inches for a lot of them. In W.W.II the German 88 mm was an all purpose gun.

    Infantry: Poor sots with a rifle, usually between .22 inch and .40 inch with .3xx being most popular until recently, and without any metal armor but more recently with a bit of Kevlar. Also known as “cannon fodder” as any artillery or tank shell going off near them tends to make them hamburger.

    Anti-Tank Man Portable weapons: Over the years these have improved from the Panzer Faust and Bazooka of W.W.II (and the sticky explosives you were expected to apply By Hand! via running up close enough to splat them on the tank…) to the modern smart rocket things that keep track of the tank after you launch them, arc up high and come down on the thinnest part of the top

    Mines: Explosive blobs you bury in the dirt that blow up man or metal beast when trod upon. Little ones for people, big ones for Tanks.

    There’s a few other bits, but those are the big ones.

    Tanks don’t have a lot of windows as those are easy kill points, so a tank is nearly blind behind and to the sides (that’s why you see the tank captain riding along with his head outside until the action starts. Eventually cameras and such will fix this, but not on anything old…) Tanks also have machine guns to mow down infantry trying to run up and kill them with anti-tank weapons. For this reason you have your own infantry going along with your tanks to stop the other infantry from just running up and sticking bombs on your tanks. Something similar applies to Artillery. The most modern anti-tank weapons are made to fire from farther away just so the infantry with the tank is less useful at stopping the opposing infantry unless it gets so far out in front of the tanks that the infantry is too exposed. Range Matters.

    Now, with that scene painted, your question on Artillery:

    There’s another word / phrase: Counter Battery Fire. Some folks set up a bunch of Howitzers and start lobbing shells at you. You figure out where they are and lob shells back, to kill them. IF you both have the same range, first guy to fire wins. IFF, however, you have longer range and can sit just outside their range: Your counter battery fire kills them every time. They fire at something, your radar and computers figure out where the shells came from and your counter battery fire takes out their artillery.

    We now have “shoot and scoot” with self mobile artillery for just that reason. You fire some shells that are going to land in about 3 minutes, and while the opposition automated counter battery fire control computer is figuring out where you are, you start running away. This is all done before your first shell lands on target…

    In addition to counter battery fire, you can send out tanks, man portable rockets, infantry “whatever” and have them attack the artillery set-up. 2 problems there: With a 25 mile range, they are likely about 10 to 20 miles behind the current front line. You need to (somehow…) get all those tanks, men, etc. through the front line and have them cover 10 to 20 miles of open ground undetected and un-engaged. Um, “good luck with that” comes to mind. Oh, and when you get there you may well find a mine field between you and the artillery…

    Also consider that any commander with clue will have a bit of infantry to protect the artillery nearby (perhaps in a ‘rear area’ when not at the “front line”).

    So most folks will toss air assets and bombs at the Artillery instead of infantry.

    But it looks like Russia has air dominance (at least locally to their front lines / artillery emplacements) and that’s off the table.

    Now, this bit from the WSocialists seems with clue to me:

    https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/06/16/rryg-j16.html

    Milley admitted, “In terms of artillery, they do outnumber, they out-gun and out-range.” He added, “[t]he Russians do outnumber—in terms of artillery, they outnumber the Ukrainians. The estimate varies, some say four, five, six to one, others say 10, 15 to one, others say 20 to one.”
    […]
    “Some Western officials say Mr. Zelensky may not have a viable strategy to win the war. The Ukrainians have had some success fighting at relatively close ranges, and the Russians have countered by relying on their immense advantage in longer-range artillery and missiles, pounding cities and towns to rubble before sending in troops.

    Yes, I didn’t mention missiles… think of them as really really long range artillery…

    So Russia can sit back, safe from air assault and safe from counter battery artillery fire, and just chew up the Ukrainians that get close to them with lots of artillery and missiles.

    Thus the USA saying we will send in long range missile systems… and thus my statement that were I running the Russian side, I’d blow up those long range missile systems as they arrived, and before setting up, using my air-force and superior air assets. Up to and including strategic missiles (that may or may not have a “tactical nuke” on them – which Russian Doctrine states is to be used if it looks like you lose if you don’t… It is NOT a Putin decision to use tactical nukes, it is in Army Doctrine…)

    The short form:

    It’s all about “Longest Range Wins” along with “protect from attack on the ground just in case” and a little bit of “shoot and scoot” can thwart equal range counter battery fire.

    Let me know if there’s some point I need to illuminate more.

    Sidebar:

    In W.W.II, the US Army Rangers were sent ashore (see Gun of Navarone movie for example) to take out German shore artillery as you suggested. But they had an entire invasion to distract the German infantry and 10s of miles of chaos to hide in and sneak up… Drop a charge down the barrel and set it off. But there are other ways. Just bugger the firing pin / breach mechanism and it’s out of action. There are some fine precision bits (sights and such) that also are easily buggered and make a gun effectively useless. It isn’t just the barrel… even the carriage is essential to absorbing the recoil and returning the gun to firing position. IF your artillery is off by 1/2 mile, you could be killing your own instead of the target, so precision is very vital.

  48. p.g.sharrow says:

    Yes long range artillery is precision piece of equipment. Though it is made of high quality steel any real damage will render it all useless scrap, To create modern artillery pieces they are engineered to be as light as possible so there is little extra strength to counter blast damage. there is even a limit to the number of shots available before accuracy fails.
    As I understand it, at first the Ukraine’s used the same old Soviet style equipment that the Russians used and the Russians had 20 times the number in pieces and munitions, This number number advantage has dwindled as the Russians use carpet bombing methods and Ukraine’s are gaining better western longer range artillery but it may be 1 more month before the balance changes into the favor of Ukraine forces. The forces of Putin are woefully short of trained Infantry to protect their heavy equipment so short range anti tank and air, man carried weapons have been successful at degrading the Russian advantage. One must remember the Ukraine’s gave up all of their heavy weapons under the treaty that Guaranteed their National borders. They have had 10 years of Putins slow aggression to salami slice off pieces under guise of Liberation of Russians so they have been readying themselves for this grab. The move of Western Europe toward the Russian borders only started after Putin bragged, He / Russia would recreate the Greater Russian Empire before he was even elected President. Like Hitler, Putin will destroy his Nation due to their hubris. China would love this as it will insure their premicy over Eastern Asia. The bulk of The Russian Federation military holds the Border with China. That is why Putin had to get permission to launch his Special Expedition to subdue Ukraine.from China. The west must block this grab while preserving Russia as a whole to block China from grabbing Eastern Asia.. Pushing Russia out of Ukraine while preserving it will debase China’s notion that they can prevail over Taiwan.

  49. jim2 says:

    Drop a chunk of gallium down the barrel of an artillery piece. Makes the steel brittle. Don’t know if it’s been tried, but would be a quiet way to ruin the piece.

    https://chemistrytalk.org/gallium-element/

  50. YMMV says:

    Tanks are like submarines, useful for something, but I would not want to be in one.
    Which war was it? Saddam’s? Their boys in tanks were just sitting ducks for airpower.
    Tanks are useful for impressing civilians, like when the Soviets invaded Czechoslovakia.

    Airpower does not get mentioned much in this war. Hints of hypersonic cruise missiles.
    And stealth jets:
    https://www.rt.com/russia/557427-russia-new-plane-ukraine/
    Apparently the Su-57 is very good, even if there are not very many of them.

  51. E.M.Smith says:

    Here’s a description of how our Military Geniuses think shipping longer range artillery to Ukraine will change everything:

    https://taskandpurpose.com/analysis/us-military-artillery-ukraine-russia-war/

    I found this bit somewhat scary:

    Every time the Russians fire one of their own artillery pieces, they will have to pack up and move to avoid the Ukrainian counter fire, Davis told Task & Purpose. The Russians also tend to concentrate their artillery “hub-to-hub” while the U.S. military keeps artillery units spread out as a form of protection.

    Ultimately, the Ukrainians should receive a total of 183,000 artillery rounds
    for their M777 howitzers, according to the Defense Department. To put that number into perspective, Davis said that his battalion fired fewer than 1,000 rounds during the Gulf War’s four-day ground campaign.

    Reminds me of W.W.I and “send just 100,000 more troops into the meat grinder and that will win it for sure!”…

    The way to handle this “new threat” is for Russia to simply send an air raid and blow up the place where these are unloaded. We know they can hit Kiev (as they did), so…

    As I see it, there’s 2 ways this can go:

    1) Assets arrive and a simple rocket strike or air strike makes it all pointless.

    2) Assets are put into play, and start winning it for Ukraine. Kiev (and potentially airports where this material was unloaded and potentially US Aircraft that delivered it) are fondly remembered amidst the ashes (that hopefully don’t glow in the dark).

    I just don’t see the case when Russia starts losing and just doesn’t roll out some of the other 90% of their military capability.

  52. E.M.Smith says:

    This one confirms my statement that Russia likes to use the oldest first and not leave the best assets exposed:
    https://taskandpurpose.com/analysis/history-russia-tanks-running-out-of-fuel-ukraine/

    Years later, Russia planned to fight the same way in the Cold War by deploying units “in huge waves,” Cogan explained. The plan was to essentially put the least valuable tanks and personnel on the front lines, and gradually increase it in the waves that followed. First, Russia would send forward it’s World War II-era tanks “manned by East German and Czechoslovakian conscripts, literally just as cannon fodder to use up American ammunition,” Cogan said. That would be followed by Russia’s T-62s and T-55s, and then the T-64s and T-72s manned by Russian troops.

    “By the time we saw their brand new T-80 … they had already pushed us back,” Cogan said of the war game scenario.

    That didn’t happen, but that doesn’t mean the U.S. didn’t have a plan in case it did. According to Cogan, the plan was to disrupt Russian military operations long enough that they’d begin to self-implode from a lack of resources. Sound familiar?

    So while it’s very Ra-Ra USA! in tone and poo-poos Russian strategies, I think there’s room for a bit less hubris and a bit more “what could go wrong?” introspection.

    Michael Kofman, the director of the Russia Studies Program at CNA, a national security think tank, told the Washington Post that he suspects Russia did “not properly organize the logistics necessary for an … an actual, serious fight in what is the largest country in Europe outside of Russia.” In turn, the Ukrainians “pretty quickly figured out that the Achilles’ heel on the Russian effort was the logistics.”

    Indeed, Cogan said the way the U.S. saw it during the Cold War was you “don’t necessarily have to stop the Russians. You have to just disrupt their timetable. Because if you can slow them down enough their units’ logistics are going to start falling apart.”

    “You could argue we’re seeing that happening now in the modern world.”

    Sounds reasonable… but … seems to me the Russians can just “hold in place” while they get supply chains fixed. Which is what it looks like they did.

    But whatever… I’m still of the opinion we won’t know what is actually going on for months to years…

    @P.G.:

    Do you have a citation or link to what Putin said about re-creating Greater Russia? All I’ve been able to find is statements of regret at the breakup. I’d like to see what he said (even if in Russian) about expansion so as to get any insight from it that I can.

    I haven’t put a lot of time on it (as I’m busy trying to exit the “homeless” category ;-) so any pointers would be helpful.

    All I’ve seen is assertion that he said it, and I’d like to get the flavor of how he said it.

    @YMMV:

    Tanks are good against infantry, but air power is good against tanks (thus my favorite war airplane the A-10 Warthog …). IMHO, that both sides are not using much air power is curious. Have anti-air missiles gotten that good? Are we seeing the ascendancy of missiles over air and land and sea forces? Or is it just that they cost a lot so Russia is only using them sparingly for strategic bombing events…

  53. E.M.Smith says:

    Hmm…. IFF it can be believed, RT claims that Russia is doing what I’d expected they would do… But if it isn’t true, the article does show they would like to have done it…

    https://www.rt.com/russia/557428-50-ukrainian-generals-officers-killed-russia/

    Bolding done by me…

    Dozens of Ukrainian officers killed in missile strike – Russia
    The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that Kalibr missiles were also used to destroy Western-supplied M777 howitzers and armored vehicles

    Russian warships have destroyed a Ukrainian command center with Kalibr cruise missiles, killing dozens officers, Moscow’s Defense Ministry reported on Sunday.

    “More than 50 generals and officers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were killed,” the statement outlined.

    The strike took place near the village of Shirokaya Dacha in Dnepropetrovsk Region. It hit a compound where commanders of several Ukrainian units had gathered for a meeting, according to Moscow.

    The ministry added that Kalibr missiles were also used to destroy 10 M777 howitzers and up to 20 armored vehicles that were recently delivered from the West, and had been stored inside a factory building in the southern city of Nikolayev.

    So what is the truth and what the propaganda? My guess would be that the 50 General officers is inflated. You’d not pull that many together in one place during time of war. OTOH, you could read it as “General AND Officers” and get to 50. Say 4 Generals with 11 other officers each, or even 2 Generals and 24 other ranks of officers each… maybe even counting down to non-commissioned officers in the officer count. So subtle phrasing for the propaganda effect.

    Per the 10 howitzers: Seems like a low claim for a propaganda bit, but reasonable for an actual storage location. Call it 5 actually?

    What I find most interesting about it is that it shows Russia is thinking in terms of air power to destroy them in their warehouses. Even if they didn’t actually do it, they are thinking that is the countermeasure to use…

  54. Ed Forbes says:

    A very good post. Well worth the time

    Scott Ritter is a former U.S. Marine Corps intelligence officer who served in the former Soviet Union implementing arms control treaties, in the Persian Gulf during Operation Desert Storm and in Iraq overseeing the disarmament of WMD.

    https://beforeitsnews.com/prophecy/2022/06/new-scott-ritter-big-ukraine-war-update-and-analysis-june-2022-2531501.html
    .

  55. E.M.Smith says:

    @Ed Forbes:

    I’m going to watch his “update” but digging around a little, some of the stuff on that site is a bit “crazy talk word salad” like: https://beforeitsnews.com/prophecy/2022/06/extraordinarily-energetic-spectacular-sequential-supernovas-and-multiphase-solar-amplifications-with-the-corrective-re-orientation-of-the-heavenly-bodies-above-including-the-shifting-of-the-earths-c-2531488.html

    There can be truth from folks who are a bit over the edge on other things, though, but… so one hopes it is just that channel and not him.

  56. E.M.Smith says:

    Don’t know about the channel, but Scott Ritter has a lot of clue… (still watching…)

    Update:

    Only part he said that I think is wrong / broken is his assertion that after a nuclear war “the world ends”. It doesn’t.

    Nukes tend to destroy the area utterly in about a 5 mile radius, and damage badly out to 20 miles. Even if you say fallout (that goes away largely in about 2 weeks) takes out a 50 mile radius, that’s about 7500 square miles. Say there’s 1000 of them. 7,500,000 square miles. Golly, that sounds like a lot… except: There’s about 58,000,000 square miles of land area… so you are talking about 12% of the land surface. You still have 90% of the surface of the land area of the earth untouched. (Then there’s the oceans…)

    The CITIES especially major cities of the combatants will be gone, but not all the rest of it. Especially lots of uninvolved islands all over the global oceans will be basically untouched (perhaps even unaware until it’s all over). Alaska away from the 3 or 4 major population / basing areas. Almost all of Canada. Heck, the Sonoran Desert through West Texas with the exception of military bases and some cities. In Florida, you would lose the Pensacola area, Orlando area, Tampa, Miami, Jacksonville, and the coastal military bases, but the inland swamps would be untouched as would coastal small towns with a hotel and bar and not much else.

    Then there’s places like Africa. Just what would anyone nuke in Africa? And why? Substantially nothing as long as they stay out of the grill of the folks doing the fighting. Ditto South America and Australia. A “nuclear exchange” would involve at most the USA, China, Russia & Europe. I.e. a Northern Hemisphere thing. It would not be an “on the beach” event.

  57. p.g.sharrow says:

    Ok, I watched all of that Scott Ritter interview;
    Truths, half truths and conjecture weaved together in his opinions of his superior intellect. Time will show how superior he is. As to opinions based on facts I will stand by my own as I saw little to change based on his arguments..

  58. Ed Forbes says:

    “Crazy talk” is a bit mild to describe the site.
    .
    Quite a bit of chatter re Ritter on the web so found this on a search. The history between Russia, NATO, and Ukraine stated by Ritter is accurate as I have been following this since the US instigated the Ukraine political takeover that forced their president out of power.

  59. jim2 says:

    This involves climate models, so buyer beware …

    But research on nuclear winter continued. Recent studies with modern climate models show that an all-out nuclear war between the United States and Russia, even with today’s reduced arsenals, could put over 150 million tons of smoke and soot into the upper atmosphere. That’s roughly the equivalent of all the garbage the U.S. produces in a year! The result would be a drop in global temperature of some 8°C (more than the difference between today’s temperature and the depths of the last ice age), and even after a decade the temperature would have recovered only 4°C. In the world’s “breadbasket” agricultural regions, the temperature could remain below freezing for a year or more, and precipitation would drop by 90 percent. The effect on the world’s food supply would be devastating.

    Even a much smaller nuclear exchange could have catastrophic climate consequences. The research cited above also suggests that a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan, involving 100 Hiroshima-sized weapons, would shorten growing seasons and threaten annual monsoon rains, jeopardizing the food supply of a billion people. The image below shows the global picture one month after this hypothetical 100-warhead nuclear exchange.

    https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/devastating-effects-of-nuclear-weapons-war/

  60. p.g.sharrow says:

    For those worried about a nuclear war, Don’t. There is no indication of a Nuclear war in the psychic world and that kind of an event would leave a BIG mark. Nostradamus made 3 remarks about 9-11 but no indication of a Nuclear war, His quatrains cover 780 years, we have 250 years left in that line.
    Modern weapons are powerful enough for their purpose, so I see no military need for Atomic weapons and any country that has them, it is for political leverage, If they are used they lose their value as a leverage asset.. The bottom line is you must have boots on the ground in control to have a successful military / political action.

  61. H.R. says:

    @pg – Boots on the ground? I think the next step in modern warfare is to just tweet to all the enemy’s smart phones, “Lay down your weapons and behave. Don’t make us come back there.”
    🤣🤣🤣

  62. Ed Forbes says:

    Scott Ritter made a comment on Ukraine casualties I found interesting.
    .
    On the 100 to 200 dead Ukraine admits as losing per,day, they are not listing “missing” in these numbers. He is saying Russia has claimed captured documents from overrun positions are listing as much as 600 a day “missing “. Other than fog of war reasons to fudge the numbers, the fact that death benefits are not paid for “missing” and pay continues to flow forward to the units for the “missing”, graft is a reasonable explanation. Collecting pay for non existing personnel is a time tested graft for unit commanders.
    .
    Ukraine daily casualties of 200 dead, x4 wounded (800), and using 300 missing is 1300/day or currently about 40,000 / month . Dead may be less, but wounded could be higher. The 100-200 dead / day admitted to by Ukraine is ONLY for the far east pocket.

  63. philemon says:

    @P.G.:

    Do you have a citation or link to what Putin said about re-creating Greater Russia? All I’ve been able to find is statements of regret at the breakup. I’d like to see what he said (even if in Russian) about expansion so as to get any insight from it that I can.

    I asked Fred about it, and he couldn’t do it,

  64. E.M.Smith says:

    @Jim2:

    Note the “could” word…

    ” could put over 150 million tons of smoke and soot into the upper atmosphere”

    A ground burst nuke puts dirt in the air. This rapidly falls out as, well, fallout. An air burst is far far more effective (a few thousand feet up is best). That doesn’t put dirt in the air. It WILL cause buildings and such to burst into flames, but those are on the ground, not the “upper atmosphere”.

    Now 150,000,000 / 1000 is 150,000 TONS per detonation for a massive exchange; OVER 15,000 TONS / bomb for a nuclear exchange of roughly everything on the planet. That’s crazy talk on steroids.

    I think somebody made a nutty assumption of nukes detonating at or below ground level and lofting everything inside a few miles into the air… as the extreme case.

    The reality will be just about nothing in the upper atmosphere other than some bomb vapor, and a fair amount of smoke (about like a 4 mile wide forest fire) around Ground Zero, which mostly will rapidly exit the air column. The reason is as stated above: Air Burst at ALTITUDE is vastly more effective than ground burst.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_fallout#Factors_affecting_fallout

    There are two main considerations for the location of an explosion: height and surface composition. A nuclear weapon detonated in the air, called an air burst, produces less fallout than a comparable explosion near the ground. A nuclear explosion in which the fireball touches the ground pulls soil and other materials into the cloud and neutron activates it before it falls back to the ground. An air burst produces a relatively small amount of the highly radioactive heavy metal components of the device itself.

    So nuclear winter is Yet Another Scare Story. Nothing more. Surface burst risks damage to the device preventing efficient detonation and reduces the area covered by the blast. Preferred detonation height is a couple of miles so you get the maximum radius of the fireball at the surface. Depending on size of nuke, 2 miles to a few miles…

    @P.G.:

    I appreciate your view / opinion on the Russia / Ukraine thing, but I would like a pointer to where you get the information to reach that opinion. Lord Knows I’m no expert on Russia or Ukraine. Though I have kept my eyes open and lived through a chunk of history, but… I could have missed a train load of it…

    So if you could say just what you heard that was “half truths and conjecture” I’d appreciate it. Then I can dig in it a little bit and find what I’ve missed. As it stands, all I have is basically you don’t like his POV and think Putin a megalomaniac. What I’ve observed of Putin is at odds with that; but he IS a trained KGB agent so likely has acting skills…

    His statements about history match what I’ve read of the history. So if he’s got something wrong, I missed it and need to see it instead.

  65. E.M.Smith says:

    @Per Nuclear Bomb Use:

    The world divides into Tactical & Strategic nuclear devices. Tactical nukes can be down in the 1 kton size. Taking out a couple of square miles and suitable for firing from cannon (i.e. landing relatively close to you…)

    Russian Doctrine does say to use Tactical Nukes if you need them. Strategic (10 to 50 MEGA tons kind of thing on intercontinental missiles) is a whole ‘nother beast.

    I don’t expect anyone will choose to use Strategic Nukes, but could see them easily happening as a result of panic driven escalation. Or even as a deliberate False Flag (for example, China launching one from a sub that is made to look like one from Russia in hopes of a US vs Russia exchange).

    So if Russia DID get into trouble (say Ukraine uses our provided long range rockets to start bombing Moscow) I could easily see them using a Tactical Nuke to end it NOW with one on the launcher area and one on Kiev. Then someone in France or UK sees “Nukes In Ukraine!!” and hears bombs on Moscow… so decides to “end it” via nukes on the main Russian Army locations. That then goes to Russia on NATO and on and on…

    I don’t expect that, but I can see it as a low percentage possible.

  66. philjourdan says:

    @EMS – I don’t expect anyone will choose to use Strategic Nukes,

    Sorry to disagree. Biden will. Crazy does not know limits!

  67. jim2 says:

    EMS – I believe the cooling is supposed to occur mainly due to smoke from fires, but haven’t done a lot of searching on the matter. Here is some support from measurement.

    Click to access RobockForestFire91JD02043.pdf

  68. p.g.sharrow says:

    @EMSmith and others, I would love to point you to links and Books that list the things I point out. BUT, I don’t keep records of such things, and writing is a major chore that I have been afflicted with all my life. (note it has taken me over 2 hours to compose this short reply)
    Word processors are such a blessing.
    Putin is a self made man much like Obama, His “approved History” covers up a much darker reality. Putin is a Russian Mob Boss, the “Boss of Bosses” that has had control of the National Security apperatice as well as the national checkbook. He kills or jails his opponents after he seizes their wealth…
    Russia has been “Spending” increased amounts on weapon improvements but the reality on the ground is much different as graft siphons off.huge amounts, the government is rife with graft from top to bottom as the oligarchs from Putin down to the lowest grunt that a cut.
    Have you heard of the Western World’s drive to capture the wealth and Mega yachts of Putin and his underlings. Putin has 2 Mega yachts in the 10,000 ton class that cost $700 million each to build. Russians has a thing about being the BEST or having The Best as a mark of their stature among their peers. Everyone under him takes
    a cut out of government contracts as they pass work through to the next lower guy.. So Russia has had vast stores of Soviet era weapons and a few copies of their latest stuff, all poorly maintained and the grunts on the ground are poorly supplied and trained. Putin’s Russia is a huge sick weak old bear.

  69. Ed Forbes says:

    Ritter is making an analysis of what he believes Russia believes based on his long experience as a Russian analyst, not what he recommends as a Russian action.
    .
    Don’t shoot the messenger!
    .
    “Know your enemy “ is a requirement to making responsible policy. Ritter’s complaints focus mainly on stupid western Russian policy analysts who don’t pay sufficient attention to Russian statements and Russian viewpoints.
    .
    One of Ritters main point is that Russia no longer trusts the west due to the number of outright lies western diplomats have made to Russia over the years.
    .
    Trust is the coin of diplomacy and the west has spent it all as far as Russia is concerned. The CIA can lie as its expected. Diplomats are not to lie. Shading the truth or misdirection is one thing, but outright lies ruins trust which is the only coin diplomats have to spend.
    .
    What value is a treaty if there is no trust?
    .
    If Russia believes a cease fire is just a delay to rearm Ukraine for future conflict with Russia, what incentive is there for Russia to stop the conflict prior to the complete destruction of Ukraine?

  70. Ed Forbes says:

    Detailed daily report. Long but worth reading and watching. The video is well done but the accent is a bit heavy. The video is much better done than the text and much more detailed.
    .
    https://beforeitsnews.com/war-and-conflict/2022/06/the-war-moves-out-from-ukraine-it-doesnt-look-good-for-lithuania-2475528

    [Reply:That link didn’t work for me… but adding an html to the end did: E.M.S.]
    https://beforeitsnews.com/war-and-conflict/2022/06/the-war-moves-out-from-ukraine-it-doesnt-look-good-for-lithuania-2475528.html

  71. another ian says:

    For someone up in geography and politics that Lithuanian corridor would have been obvious so I guess the antidote has been prepared

  72. E.M.Smith says:

    I’d expect that Russia has had a “take the corridor” playbook since about 1936….

    The EU GEBs and pseudo-American Government certainly do want to start W.W.III with Russia. Hopefully Russia continues to be prudent in their responses (as they have been so far).

  73. H.R. says:

    E.M., are you certain our DoS neocons and the New World Order crew don’t want WWIII?

    With a WWIII, you get rid of a lot of people that way and you clear the field for a One World Government. You also get an economic reset out of it. Of course, all of the serfs get reset to zero. But that’s not a concern of the ruling elites.

    Our DoS keeps poking the bear. Lithuania seems to be the latest jab at Russia. Putin says they will respond. I’m not going to speculate how Putin will respond, so I’ll just wait and see.

  74. YMMV says:

    It may be nothing, but …
    https://www.rt.com/russia/557636-anthrax-patient-stavropol-vaccination/

    Some countries have developed anthrax as a biological weapon. According to Russian officials, the disease was among the pathogens studied at secret US-funded biolabs in Ukraine, which were uncovered during Moscow’s military operation.

    I hear the anthrax vaccine is a bitch.

  75. E.M.Smith says:

    @H.R.: Did you skip over the part where I said “The EU GEBs and pseudo-American Government certainly do want to start W.W.III with Russia.”…?

    What they do is what they reaaly want, not a mistake. They want a war to remove Putin & Ruusia as impediments to ending nationalism.

    Not going to work, but they want it.

    Were I Putin: I’d load up a train with sancioned goods. Put a tank on a flat car every 10th car or so (oldest they have is good enough. It is just for a big gun.) Load up a few men with machine guns every car, then drive it across the border to the rest of Russia. ANYONE trying to board or stop it gets shot. First cars have spare rail and track repair gear. Anyone seen breaking track gets straiffed by air. IFF anyone damages track, a tank and some soldiers dismount there to make a point (repeat until all track secured. Even if it mean Lithuania is occupied.

    It fits the Russian slow meat grinder method.

  76. H.R. says:

    I did miss that, E.M. or misread it. I am having some eye trouble (not joking about that or anything).

  77. H.R. says:

    I have bumped into a few interesting articles that affect the probability of WWIII.

    It seems the Kaliningrad and passage through Lithuania issue has been resolved. We should see some confirmation of that today or tomorrow.

    Turkey may veto Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

    Brussels, Germany, and I suppose a few other NATO countries want no part of a ground war. They don’t like Putin, but they have no particular beef with Putin and Russia and are reluctant to get their countries shot up for… what exactly? They seem to think that participating in sanctions is good enough and have little interest in shooting or being shot at.

    Just my opinion, but it seems to me that Western leaders believe Putin will go nuclear if Russia is completely backed up against a wall.

    I’m just not seeing much interest in WWIII from any country other than the US, and that’s being driven by the GEBs and their CIA and deep state minions.
    ————–
    So now the US DoS has positioned the 101st Airborne on some border of Ukraine.

    And Biden read a message to the UN that Russia is to blame for inflation, high fuel prices, fuel shortages, and the coming food shortages. Putin and Russia are the chosen scapegoat for all that ails the West,and “He must be stopped!” So, Biden was essentially calling for WWIII

    Given we know how deep Biden is in it with China, WEF, IMF, GEBs et al, I’m thinking China might just be setting up a “Let’s you and him fight” situation. Why expend your blood and treasure on strong enemies when you can have them weaken or eliminate both?

    —————-
    My POV at the moment is that the DoS/CIA on behalf of the GEBs and One World Order crowd are the only ones pushing WWIII, and they are doing everything possible to make it happen.

    I’m seeing Putin as sidestepping all of the provocations for engaging in WWIII. He just wants Eastern Ukraine – OK, maybe all of Ukraine, it’s a tossup right now – and then call it a day. (Big question on what Putin is really up to. He seems to be taking it a step at a time, so we have to wait to see what the next step is.)
    ————–
    I’m thinking that the US DoS/CIA will finally just go ahead and start WWIII, because Putin doesn’t want to play that game. He’s not going to start it.

    And the US needs WWIII to clear out the debt mess that has developed over the past 30 years as well as a bit of population reduction. WWIII is needed for the Great Reset.
    ————
    /some idle Friday thoughts based on what I’ve read recently

  78. The True Nolan says:

    @H.R. “And the US needs WWIII to clear out the debt mess that has developed over the past 30 years as well as a bit of population reduction. WWIII is needed for the Great Reset.”

    It’s a time honored process but the basics of the procedure are as follows. Thieves and criminals attain positions of high authority within a corporation. They hire their partners in crime and proceed to parasitize the company. They extract money and value from the factory and from the shareholders until the crime becomes too big to cover up. They burn down the factory in an apparent industrial accident. The common workers are too busy fleeing for their lives to blame the managers. The stockholders see their loss of value as due to the fires. Bond holders and vendors write off their losses since the company is now bankrupt. The criminals cruise off to a tropic island somewhere to retire on their offshore account.

    We are simply seeing the same pattern, the same fraud, only carried out on a multinational scale. Let us hope we do not get caught up in the fire.

  79. p.g.sharrow says:

    Biden just stated that the policies of his administration are to “establish the Liberal World Order.”
    and that Americans would have to endure a lot of economic pain to get there.
    We no longer have a Republic , we now have a Peoples Democracy. soviet style. Where the powers of government are used to eliminate the opposition and make one party rule permanent. A coup by the Democratic Leadership is being carried out and all the opposition are “Domestic Terrorists” that must be eliminated. Barrack and his leaders have planned well in their goal to destroy America. In spite of their plan, Americans from all over are working to thwart their program, “The Net That Covers The World” is the key to the rebirth of civilization. “The New World Order” will look nothing like the dream child of the WEF. …pg

Anything to say?

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.