EU, Europe, Austria – How Are Those “sanctions” Working?

This is from “Survival Lily”. She is a “prepper” from Austria. I’ve enjoyed watching her videos about things like making shelters, shirts from leaves, how to make a reasonably good bow and arrow from what is in the forest, and similar things.

I’m impressed by the fact that she does this despite several health challenges and despite the problems of doing it in the over populated mid-Europe area. Her Channel:

I was very surprised by her video about being on “Naked And Afraid”. A show I’ve only watched maybe 2 x for half an episode each. Always impressed me as Yet Another Artificial “Reality” Show with a bogus “hook” of somebody is naked. Watching her video about having been on it, I realized just how hard the challenges are that they throw at the “participants” (even if the show masters have no clue what they are doing to people…).

And no, I have not seen her on that show. Just her after show report on it. How it was in a cold environment and she was only barely “prepared” for it. How making one of her ersatz bows got enough meat to keep them going. How cold was the worst problem. Etc. Then I realized she had done more with less than I ever had, or was ever likely to do.

So, OK, enough of that. What is THIS posting about.

Well, she is just giving a report of how bad things are in Austria (and by implication the rest of the EU). In short, pretty dismal. Inflation cutting back on buying, even of food. Homes out of reach on costs. Recession in the wind. Then her love of having a self reliant household with a garden, and now the EU is herding people into “flats” without any dirt for a garden… Let’s just say “that’s a problem” for her.

So here is her report from the EU about putting people into “small human coops”:

Oh, and yeah, she has several videos about specific things she did on Naked & Afraid to make it to the end, and you can “Go Fish” on her channel to find them; and yeah, I know some of you want to know the overview, so here is her report about it as an overview:


About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in Economics - Trading - and Money, Emergency Preparation and Risks, Energy, News Related, Political Current Events. Bookmark the permalink.

46 Responses to EU, Europe, Austria – How Are Those “sanctions” Working?

  1. rhoda klapp says:

    In the UK I can say the sanctions have had an effect on energy prices. Apparently even the sun and the wind cost more because of sanctions. Just a couple of days ago I heard a program about how well the Austrians handle their housing problem. State or city control is the answer. The lady here tells us the other side of that, state/city deciding what kind of home you need and forcing you to take it. But that isn’t sanctions that’s the us vs them problem. Europe has it bad, but so do the US, Canada, Oz. The people in charge, them, despise the people they think they are in charge of, us. Any other reason they give for their actions is a cover.

    The sanctions themselves? Don’t seem to be hurting Russia much. Oil is totally fungible, gas a bit less so. Sanctions never work, but at least they used to be legally justified, now they are not, taking the property of private citizens because of their country of origin when you are not in a state of war isn’t right.

  2. rhoda klapp says:

    Oh, and talking about energy petrol prices are going down here and locally diesel fuel can be had at a lower price than petrol, a reversal of a trend that’s been going on for years. No diesel premium any more, in some places a discount of around 25 cents per US gallon.

  3. Lars Silén: Reflex och spegling says:

    In Finland sanctions of course have had some effect but most of the pain was caused by national or EU politics. Fuel prices are high due to heavy taxation around 2 Euros per liter that is close to $8 per gallon.
    Electricity prices are high due to a stupid spot market and too many connections to Germany that causes prices to go up due to stupid green politics. For some strange reasons prices came down immediately when our new 2 GW nuclear power station started to produce electricity (/sarc).
    If wind and solar would have to state next day’s production at a fixed price and also ensure back upp both would be eliminated immediately for economic reasons.

  4. H.R. says:

    @Lars regarding prices in Finland

    I read yesterday about the price of electricity in Finland dropping to near zero in one day when the nuclear plant came online. “Well how about that,” thinks I.

    The only thing I could figure is that so much baseload was being suddenly produced that Finland’s ‘unreliables’ had to do a bunch of load shedding at negative prices. But I really don’t know why for certain, because I have not read any articles from Finland analysts that give an explanation.

    Maybe someone will write it up this week. Hopefully it will be an honest and accurate explanation.

    Petrol taxes are $8 per gallon?!? That’s highway robbery by your own government! They don’t even bother with a mask and a gun.

  5. H.R. says:

    @Rhoda – Perhaps the inversion of diesel and petrol prices is just from lack of demand in the trucking industry.

    In 2021 here in the US, we didn’t get an inversion of the prices, but the prices did almost reach parity and the reason was trucking was waaay down due to the FauXi Flu nonsense.

    If people in the UK are cutting back on expenditures and demand for goods has dropped, maybe that’s where the need for trucks to haul goods to the stores has fallen enough to make a noticeable drop in diesel prices.

    I dunno, but that’s my guess.

  6. jim2 says:

    I’ve been a fan of Naked and Afraid pretty much forever. The naked part may seem like a draw until you realize most participants aren’t in their 20’s. Most are older, not exactly a draw, just sayin’.

    But being naked takes survival to a whole new and more difficult level. Even in warm weather, hypothermia is a thing. There is no protection from bugs. Novices who swear to make Mother Nature their bitch frequently don’t last more than a day or two.

    The people running the show do realize the damage done by going without food and having no protection from bugs means. In fact, two of the medics on the show became “cast” members and tried their hand at surviving naked in the wild.

    As far as I’m concerned, being naked in the wilderness is pretty much the ultimate test of survival skills. Those that try it on the show do have a crew around them and can summon a medic at any time. They can tap out at any time. And I’m sure in places like Africa, there are crew with big enough guns to take care of any situation that might arise. There have been some medical evacuations of participants for various reasons.

  7. Keith Macdonald says:

    If people in the UK are cutting back on expenditures and demand for goods has dropped, maybe that’s where the need for trucks to haul goods to the stores has fallen enough to make a noticeable drop in diesel prices.

    In December 2020, I was paying about £1.12 per litre.
    2021, Ukraine kicks-off
    In December 2021, I was paying about £1.50 per litre.
    Peak price was £1.99 in July 2022.
    Since then it’s steadily fallen.
    Yesterday I paid £1.45 per litre.

    Round our way, several of the larger higher-tech employers have imposed a change of contract on employees, making Work From Home a permanent feature, not just a Covid Lockdown thing. Then closing the offices. So less people travelling to work, less car fuel to buy. But higher WFH costs instead.

    Local downscaling is probably the most visible cause of price drops for most people, just trying to survive to payday. Sanctions-busting and a steady supply of oil from the “bad guys” (Russia, Iran, Iraq, etc) is not such a visible cause. If only we had someone doing the same for electricity and food prices!

    I haven’t figured-out how to embed an image in a post here, so here’s a link to a few graphs.

  8. rhoda klapp says:

    Last week I had to take someone to Heathrow from Lincolnshire on Friday morning during commute time. The roads were pretty clear in terms of queuing or delays. I reckon it’s work from home that makes the difference. When I used to commute you only saw that during the school holidays. It’s a marginal thing, 10% less traffic leading to far fewer jams. I don’t see a reduction of trucks, but for that marginal effect I wouldn’t expect to be able to observe it unless it was really blatant.

    I read elsewhere that Saudi was buying cheap russian diesel to use for itself while selling their own diesel product to the west. Oil is fungible and the Masters of the Universe should have known that.

  9. Lars Silén: Reflex och spegling says:

    I didn’ express the situation correctly. The fuel price including taxes is around 2Euros per liter but that is bad enough.
    Sorry for the mix up.

  10. Lars Silén: Reflex och spegling says:

    Wind power is guaranteed a price of roughly 8.3c per kWh in Finland as long as the spot price is positive. The government pays the difference between the guaranteed price and the spot price.
    The new nuclear power plant has been running at 30% load because wind, solar and bio get priority. Running a big nuclear power plant on any other level than 100% is plain stupidity.

  11. E.M.Smith says:

    Per Diesel vs Gasoline / Petrol price difference:

    I’ve noticed that when a Western War is in the wind, Diesel shoots up over gasoline quite a bit. Why? The entire war machine runs on Diesel / Kerosene cut of petroleum. That means a lot of oil gets processed, the Military takes the “middle distillate cut” and the gasoline hits the retail market at whatever price…

    So when the balloon went up in Ukraine, I suspect a whole lot of military storage tanks in the EU and North America started being filled up on the double quick. As the war evolved, not a lot of Jets flying in Ukraine and not a lot of tanks & trucks in mobility warfare, so not needing a lot of oil / kerosene / Diesel for them, and the demand drops off from the Military once the fuel bunkers are full.

    Then, the second shoe: Cut off of Russian Diesel and crude oil to Europe. Now oil is fungible, but it takes a little time to work out new deals. So there was an immediate shortage of Diesel (that is widely used in cars in Europe…). After a bunch of months, the Russian oil is going by tankers to China, India and others; being refined and the Diesel sold on to Europe (relieving pressure on US Diesel prices as we no longer needed to ship boat loads of our Diesel to Europe…). Then add in other nations (as mentioned about Saudi) where they didn’t try to hide Russian Diesel in the exports, but just chose to sell ALL their production and use Russian oil domestically. Just about everywhere in the Global South could be doing that too ;-)

    So after some months / year-ish, the EU is again well supplied with Diesel and Jet-A. Ditto the USA as the need for emergency shipments to the EU / UK end and our domestic supply is used domestically.

    Both of those effects ought to have happened roughly in sync with each other. Causing the rapid rise of Diesel vs Gasoline, then the drop in Diesel lately to parity with gasoline. (And in a few places, below).

    Well, that’s my best guess anyway ;-)


    One of the few Naked & Afraid that I saw was one where a Big Strong Man and a petite woman were put on a tropical island. Well, he spent most of the first day running around on the beach looking for materials to make a shelter and food sources and such… Then, being a Blond… Spent the next 3 or so days suffering on a makeshift mat in the shade with severe sunburn. Failure to think through the risk…

    So yeah, I see where it’s a big added Aw Shit Load potential. And I’d not want to have to set out making shoes and a tunic my first (hungry, cold, bug bit…) day… but really? Can’t just have a show about “normal people in street clothes dropped by the side of a road somewhere”? You know, something more about realistic circumstances.

  12. E.M.Smith says:

    @Lars: Per throttled nukes:

    Note that Nukes do not like to do “load following” for a variety of nuclear reaction reasons. Run them to higher power, you get a lot of partial breakdown products as you fission the fuel. Then you try to throttle back, and those “fragments” of atoms continue to go through “nuclear decay” making “nuclear decay heat” even after you have “shut down” or “turned down” the reactor.

    This can cause all manner of unexpected thermal excursions, depending on the design of the reactor.

    NOTICE that the Chernobyl Disaster was caused by an entirely voluntary attempt to see what would happen if the Russian (Carbon Moderator Pile) reactor was throttled down rapidly. Basically, run outside of the normal and designed for paradigm.

    When they did that, all was well for a little while, then there was a sudden surge in Decay Heat that they didn’t expect and that caused some of the control rods to bind up and have problems; that then led to the runaway situation when they could no longer scram the rods.

    So hearing that folks are trying to Load Follow with a production Nuke does not give me warm fuzzy feelings…

    Nuclear Chemistry is hard, doing it in an environment with rapid variation of neutron flux and control rod positions is very hard and sometimes catastrophic.

    The exception to this is the Submarine and Air Craft Carrier reactor type. It has about 20%+ enriched fuel and can be more rapidly throttled just by moving neutron reflector / absorber plates around the metal fuel core. This is a special reactor design and type and requires fuel that is much more highly concentrated than typical power reactor fuel.

  13. jim2 says:

    EMS said: Can’t just have a show about “normal people in street clothes dropped by the side of a road somewhere”? You know, something more about realistic circumstances.

    Yes, you can. “SOS: How to Survive”

    So Creek Stewart, the host of the show, tells a true story of someone who wrecked, got lost, or otherwise faced their own SHTF moment. Creek illustrates tips and techniques that the person in question might have attempted. I understand it is a teaching moment, but the guy trapped underneath the 4-wheeler probably won’t be able to pull off the weaving of a sling in order to fend off the coyotes. Just sayin’.

  14. H.R. says:

    Hey, E.M. I forgot to say thanks for the introduction to Survival Lilly.

    Interesting lady that gives us another perspective as well as her boots on the ground reports from Austria.

    I don’t really hear much from or about Austria. I’m not sure why that is. I suppose it’s like here in the US. We get DC, Chicago, NY, and LA reports and just not all that much reporting on Des Moines or Ames Iowa. And I’m not quite sure why that is, either, although it’s probably the lack of blood, guts, and the glitter of the bright lights.

    So, thanks for posting about Survival Lilly.

  15. Keith Macdonald says:

    I don’t really hear much from or about Austria.

    Good reminder. Austria is one of those almost-forgotten parts of Europe.

    the establishment of permanent neutrality in 1955, associated with the withdrawal of the Allied troops that had occupied the country since the end of World War II, enabled Austria to develop into a stable and socially progressive nation with a flourishing cultural life reminiscent of its earlier days of international musical glory.

    The most famous example of the musical glory being the Vonn Trapp family. Strangely, no mention of their most famous painter, Adolf Hitler.

    Not mentioned in The Sound Of Music was the patriarch’s backstory. He was an officer in the Austro-Hungarian Navy who later became the patriarch of the Trapp Family Singers. Trapp was the most successful Austro-Hungarian submarine commander of World War I
    Perhaps not mentioned because it was Allied shipping he was sinking.

    We could be forgiven for wondering where among the mountains of Austria they had any need for submarines. Seems like it was an Austro-Hungarian imperial relic.

    Note that “withdrawal of the Allied troops that had occupied the country since the end of World War II” – the withdrawal was to Germany.

    Most people think WW2 ended in 1945. Actually, that was just the German surrender and the end of hostilities, it didn’t formally end until 1950

    Occupying troops were still there in 1990, or 1994, or 2020, or now, depending on which version of the history one reads.

    UK troops were still being stationed there until 2020, US troops still are.

    On a personal note, my father once told me how he had assisted with the revival of Scottish-Austrian relations in 1945. His WW2 army service was approach its end in Austria, as one of a squad guarding a Scottish Rite Monastery and their strategically important stockpile of Cherry Brandy. He told me the monks were proud of their Hiberno-Scottish connection, and thought a Scottish person would take good care of their prized assets. He did, cheerfully and personally. Apparently there were a lot of leaky bottles that needed careful handling and disposal of the contents in an environmentally conscious manner (they drank the contents).

  16. Simon Derricutt says:

    Keith – one consequence of those foreign troops being stationed in Germany was a fair amount of intermarriage and thus family ties becoming international. For the 4 daughters of my father-in-law, 3 of them married English squaddies, and one of his granddaughters married a US soldier (African-American). I think those sorts of ties make wars a bit less likely in future, plus maybe a bit less of weight placed on skin colour when a person has multiple shades in their own family.

    Germans call Austria Österreich – the Eastern realm. More of a generalised place than specific, in the same way as “The Ukraine” or “The Sudan” never used to have precise borders and weren’t really regarded as countries though their local leaders may have been significant. Borders only become important when there’s an advantage of being inside a particular country rather than outside it.

  17. The True Nolan says:

    Minor side comment re Austria: Here is a link to a video about megalithic style carving and chambers there. I consider the source only very partly reliable, and there are way too few details to inspire confidence, but this is the first I have heard of this type of rockwork in Austria. File it under “Austria? Who ordered that?”

  18. Keith Macdonald says:

    Sadly I’ve never heard of these Austria megalithic caves, despite an interest in megalithic stuff over a few decades. I’m fairly sure if it was real, it would be a big feature on The Megalithic Portal website.
    I’ve just tried a search there, and while it does have many Austrian locations, nothing that seems like these caves.

  19. The True Nolan says:

    Hey Keith, thanks for the link. Good site. The video looks similar to the chambers in parts of India. There are a few places in the video where you can read village names off the diagrams, but like you, I am surprised at why (if they are real) there is not more discussion about them.

  20. Lars Silén: Reflex och spegling says:

    Regarding load following in a big nuclear power plant. There shouldn’t be any immediate risks similar to Chernobyl simply because the Russian one was a graphite core reactor optimized for plutonium production. Olkiluoto III is a modern pressurised water reactor.
    Load following will cause unnecessary stress cycles on the extremely expensive big pressure wessel causing fatique and possibly growing cracks.
    I worked for ten yars at the Technical research center of Finland exactly involved in measuring the fatique crack propagation speed in the pressure vessel material.

  21. E.M.Smith says:


    You’re welcome! I was surprised to find a lady in Austria who makes her own bow & arrow sets and camps in the woods. Didn’t realize there were still places where you could do that in central Europe…

    And, as you pointed out, the “on the ground reports” on the situation are useful. Clearly their economy is not going as well as the MSM reports. (Germany now announced in formal recession).

    I suspect we don’t here much about Austria due to a couple of effects. Having been The Great Power in the Austro Hungarian Empire, then lost it all, they likely know what too much attention is like. Then, that “other Austrian” of W.W.II fame likely makes them a bit shy about it all now. Finally, culturally, I think they don’t really want a lot of “excitement” or “news events” anymore. Just build a comfortable quiet life. All speculation mind you. I’ve never been to Austria…


    Good points. Surrender is not the end…

    IIRC they escaped to the USA… (he does a web search)… yup:
    has some interesting “corrections” to the movie script…

    I never did develop a taste for cherry in booze… but apricots ;-)


    Interesting. I’ll watch the video after First Coffee when I can pay attention ;-)

    There is an ancient stone working technique that we’ve still not quite worked out. I’d bought a jug of oxalic acid to experiment with softening stones, but never got around to it before leaving California (and leaving the jug behind…). So took a year or three “schedule” hit due to the move…

    Still ponder it some, but need to find a source of BIG Granite Rocks to play with and those are not so common in Florida …


    Certainly. Each reactor type has it’s own peculiar risks, issues, and oddities. But they tend to share the decay heat cycle issues (just not the particular failure modes). The root problem is running a reactor in modes that are divergent from the design state. We see a lot of Politicians mandating operative modes of all sorts of things that are at odds with the original design parameters and then causing problems. One little example:

    I just got my 1998 Mercedes back from the mechanic here. It is one of the last with no oxygen sensor / engine control computer. Fixed fuel ratio. And I DO mean FIXED. California mandated a solid barrier over the fuel adjustment screw. Well, then the EPA sent us down the Ethanol Diluted Fuel path. For about the last 20 years that care has had a “stumble” at idle. Step on the gas and it has a stumble almost die before it takes off. Too lean a fuel mix due to 10% ethanol. Well, just got that fixed as Florida does not forbid making a car run properly… So 2 mandates that moved the design point from Gasoline to Dilute Gasoline and then forbid fixing the mix; now history ;-0 Runs nice now.

    So all over Europe and North America there are several reactor designs (PWR, BWR, whatever) designed with the expectation of long slow warm up and shutdown cycles and with a steady base load run for months (years?) in between; instead being run up and down daily. Politicians reaction: Consequences? We don’t care about no stinking consequences!! We are the Idiot Masters Of The Universe!! /snark;

  22. Keith Macdonald says:

    So all over Europe and North America there are several reactor designs (PWR, BWR, whatever) designed with the expectation of long slow warm up and shutdown cycles and with a steady base load run for months (years?) in between; instead being run up and down daily.

    Any bets the reliable nuclear power will be used to cope with surges in the unreliable wind and solar, and eventually the narrative will go something like this?

    1) the safety-conscious engineers running the plant do due diligence and report to their senior management : our reactors are safest when run in their designed mode with steady levels of power output. Not as safe when run with fluctuating output, or requires extra people to manage (at extra cost). i.e. more expensive than steady-state output

    2) Senior management report to owners and shareholders : our reactors are more expensive to run and not so safe with fluctuating output

    3) Press release from woke green folk in marketing department (technically illiterate): our reactors are not safe and more expensive than alternative sources

    4) Policians response : The sky is falling in! We need more wind and solar

  23. cdquarles says:

    You’d think so; but if the family is disfunctional enough, it isn’t necessarily so. Nurture matters as well; and the West’s culture has fallen quite a bit. My own family has every skin color shade in it, from pink to dark chocolate. A few of my cousins balked at the thought we were related. (They were on the darker side, we are on the lighter; and remember, the differences are skin deep and from melanin type differences. Only albinos, who have accidental production deficiencies, lack the general amount. Everyone else is within the same order of magnitude.)

  24. cdquarles says:

    Yeah, that sounds exactly like how it would be spun.

  25. Phil Salmon says:

    Interesting that water tables are low in Austria. Here in Belgium they are the highest I can remember, ponds and lakes almost overflowing, trees falling due to waterlogged roots.

  26. E.M.Smith says:

    @Simon & CDQuarles (per shade and war):

    I doubt it will effect war rates. I’ve pointed out before that for at least 400 years and likely closer to 1000 my various ancestor types have been trying to kill each other. English (itself a blend of Vikings, Germans and Celts), Irish, German & French (a minor %, IIRC I was told it was about 1/8 th or so). The French being Germanic Franks and Celtic Gauls.

    So the USA is the cultural inheritor of that mush, along with a load of Hispanics, Poles, Swedes, Blacks, and whatall… yet the USA has been in almost continuous war since the start of W.W.I (itself not that long after the American war between the States). Fighting against Hispanics (including Blond Blue Eyed Spaniards – remember the Spanish American War…), Germanics of all sorts, French (Vichy), Italians (until they changed sides for the win…), Asians, North Africans, Semitic / Hamitic peoples, and anything else that got in the way.

    I’m just not seeing the place where skin color enters war. We’ll destroy any country…


    I suspect there’s an exception to your “all the same amount” assertion. As someone with The Redhead Gene & Freckles; I can assure you there are areas of my skin that are transparent. Mostly my coloration comes from mu-melanin being more lemon colored than black/brown, but the fact is I’m that most ignored minority: “Spotted”. Where I have color, it tends to come in patches (aka freckles), and in between them, you can see blood vessels and veins. I’ve also easily seen foreign objects that got under the skin.

    I don’t buy into the notion that “freckles are skin damage”. I’m pretty sure there is a Spotted Gene. Look at Asian / Celt crosses; you sometimes end up with a Eurasian looking person with VERY Dark freckles. I also got freckles from about age 3 onward. Then they fade in winter darkness. (For me, a “tan” is when enough freckles show up that they start to merge… and as they fade, I end up with only the darkest spots remaining… “dark” being a very relative term…)

    My Daughter, a full on redhead, has the typical Redhead Skin. That unusual nearly transparent albumin tinted pink look. 1/2 way to albino in appearance. Hardly a freckle in sight on almost all her skin. So I’m pretty sure that “freckling” as a gene moves separately from “red head” as a gene. My family members have different mixes of each, even with the same sun exposure.

    BTW, I’m not asserting you are wrong; I’m just asserting that everyone ignores freckled people and redheads… 2% of the population and dropping…

  27. another ian says:

    “Rangas Rule”

    (“What is the meaning of ranga in Australia?” )

    One of my grandmothers had red hair. None of her children had it. My sister and some cousins do, so maybe something in second generation heritability?

  28. cdquarles says:

    Freckling is more common than folk realize, at least in my family. It’s just easier to see in the lighter end members. And I am including tanning, which, if not permanent, also gets overlooked; though you mentioned it. I have looked at skin sections, and I reference orders of magnitude. What also happens is that skin depth of penetration (where you find melanocytes and their vesicles) varies between freckled and unfreckled skin and tanned skin and faded tanned skin.

    It is well known that, at least to some biologists/physiologists, that gene expression varies. The process that inhibits genes is “random” in that sometimes it is your father’s genes and other times it is your mother’s genes and that “chimeras”, where one set of cells in a tissue express the father line and another expresses the mother line have been identified. That even happens to genetically identical twins; which, in addition to crosslinking and imperfect replication, makes them not fully identical.

  29. another ian says:

    In “Once Great Britain”

    “Three Cheers for Tommy Robinson”

  30. another ian says:

    FWIW – Ukraine

    “SITREP 5/29/23: Kiev Rocked as New Satellite Photos Prove Patriot Destruction”

  31. another ian says:

    And more FWIW

    “Putin Strikes Back – Destroys GUR Bunker?”

  32. another ian says:

    From “Putin strikes back” and full alfoil hat on –

    “This dovetails with preparations for the coming offensive, which we’re all sick of hearing about at this point. It was reported last week that fearful of leaks, Ukraine has shared their offensive plans with only a tiny handful of people in the West. Apparently Lindsay Graham was one of them, as a new Politico piece reports with joy that Graham has been given a very thorough ‘deep-dive’ of the full offensive plans, which he calls very ‘impressive’. He further says that the Russians are in for a big surprise and ‘rude awakening’.

    “In the coming days, you’re going to see a pretty impressive display of power by the Ukrainians.” ”

    That “rude awakening” is that they lean on things and hit the Polish border in record time?

  33. rhoda klapp says:

    If I was trying to keep a secret, would I tell Lindsay Graham? Let’s assume that whatever this counter-offensive (why isn’t it just an offensive?) turns out to be, it is currently being subject of a major deception plan. Maybe the main thrust isn’t even decided yet. Montgomery (OK, I know Americans despise him) would push on different parts of the front and commit only when the Germans committed first. Alamein, Mareth, Normandy, all fit this assertion.

  34. E.M.Smith says:


    Isn’t methylation the system that controls which genes are turned on or off?

    @Another Ian:

    I think that’s exactly right. Putin is waiting for the Ukrainians to move, then figure out where they have strengths and weaknesses, destroy their strengths, and then make a “run for the Polish border”; IMHO of course.

    Why be the “first mover” if you are nicely protected behind strong defensive barriers and your opponent is being expedited to crash their army on your rocks (by the USA masters). Just wait for the decimation of the attacker, then crush the remainder afterward.

    Only thing that I can see arguing against that would be IF the “counter offensive” were a ploy to run out the clock for some reason and there was not going to be any attack. Basically, buying time by getting Russia to wait for a counter attack that never comes. I can’t see how that would really succeed, as Russia will know when it is best to go on the hunt, and if no counter attack comes before then (seeing the weather window as starting to close): I think Russia would then just move toward Poland.


    Near as I can tell, Lindsay just loves to run his mouth spouting how he would attack anyone the USA doesn’t like.

    Per Montgomery: I think most Americans don’t know anything at all about him, nor do they think about him. Personally, I have no big emotional leaning either way. He was a pretty good General who did some stupid things. IMHO you can say that about most Generals. MacArthur didn’t react to the bombing of Pearl Harbor to protect the forces in Philippines, the Mulberry Harbor was not assembled properly by the US forces (bracing cables left off) and a storm destroyed it while the English one survived; so which General was in charge of that? (Reducing offloading ability by 1/2 at a crucial time). Which General was in charge of Pearl Harbor and clustered all the airplanes together for easier destruction from the air (being afraid of land based sabotage)? Etc. etc. I don’t see Montgomery as being any worse.

    That said: I liked Bradley, Ike and other than being a bastard, Patton. BUT each had some “issues”. Bradley was in charge of Korea (where we rushed to the Chinese Border and then turned around and ran back under attack from Chinese soldiers…). Patton was in the news for being mean to his soldiers and intolerant. Etc.

    Why isn’t it just an offensive? Near as I can tell, it is because the initial incursion by Russia was an “offensive” so what comes back at it is a “counter offensive”. BUT: Didn’t we already have that when Ukraine took back some land about a year ago? Then Russia pushed back and locked down some other parts (counter-counter-offensive?) so wouldn’t this coming thing be a counter-counter-counter-offensive?

    Seems a bit silly to me to try sorting them as offensives and counter offensives. To me, it is just a war with each side attacking somewhere at various times. I see it through the lens of The Art Of War: attack your enemy where he is weak. Look strong where you are weak, look weak where you are strong. In sparing, one of my best moves was to “launch 3 things at once” where a couple of them are an attack but also can be a defense. (“Every strike is a block” per Sensei) so even the idea of an attack that is not a defense is a bit outside my way of seeing things…

    I see Russia as doing a far far better job of it in terms of knowing Art Of War. Leaving thin lines along the “front” of dirt they don’t care about, then having very strong defensive lines in depth a ways back from it, with artillery behind that. When Ukraine ‘attacks’, the front line falls back (one guy has called this a ‘crumple zone’) and when the Ukrainian army runs in, it gets chopped up by artillery and crashes on the hardened defensive lines. Rinse & Repeat. Appearing weak where it is strong.

    In comparison, Ukraine sends masses of men to die for the publicity value of an “attack”. Tries to hold land and cities that have little military value. Focuses on “miracle weapons” and not on logistics, strategy & tactics. Basically, runs a Politically Driven Battle Plan, not a military values one. Same problems that Germany had in the last half of W.W.II as their Dear Leader mucked about barking orders…

    FWIW, I agree with the strategy of “poke a lot of places” and when the other side reacts and commits, then engage it. In sparing, we would throw several jabs and kicks until the other guy commits and makes an error; that is when you can have a winning strike. ( I once got a strike like that on a Black Belt – though it was a “mutual slaying”. As a lowly purple belt, I just mirrored his moves until he launched an attack, then I moved… we both landed at the same time, but I “pointed on him” ;-)

  35. cdquarles says:

    Methylation is one of them. Phosphorylation of needed enzymes is another.

  36. another ian says:


    “Prophetic words from Václav Havel

    Many readers will recall Václav Havel, a dissident anti-Communist leader who became President of the Czech Republic after the fall of the Soviet Union. He was widely respected. He was also a best-selling author, one of whose books was titled “The Power of the Powerless”. Published in 1985, it became a rallying cry for anti-Communist movements throughout the Warsaw Pact, and is regarded to this day as a seminal work of political philosophy.”

    More at

  37. another ian says:

    FWIW – Ukraine

    “Ukr Offensive Delay, Russia Repels 2nd Ukr Belgorod Attack; Putin, Russia Advance Across Ukraine”

    The “end run through the middle”?

  38. Keith Macdonald says:

    A spot check on UK fuel prices.

    It’s still dropping in price. Today I paid £1.39 per litre for diesel. Perhaps more significant, for the first time for as long as I can remember, diesel was cheaper than petrol. It used to be a lot more.

    Elsewhere I’ve read that there’s now a glut of West African oil, and it’s being heavily discounted.

  39. another ian says:

    More reading

    “Saturday Snippet: What led to the Russian Revolution

    Historian Antony Beevor is renowned for his in-depth investigation of events in the light of modern research and information that often supersedes earlier efforts. His monumental work, “Russia: Revolution and Civil War, 1917-1921″ is extraordinary in the amount of detail it provides, and the depth of its coverage of that period.”

    More at

  40. another ian says:

    FWIW – Ukraine

    “SITREP 6/3/23: West Stymied by Strong Russian Economic Showing”


    “Russia Takes 5 Marinka Districts, Encircling Kupyansk, MSM: Ukr Army Enlists Untrained Draftees”

  41. Keith Macdonald says:

    Here’s an interesting article which marks how much things in the wider world are changing while we in the UK/US/EU are dozing.

    First of all, don’t react to the click-bait headline, like some of the commentators clearly have.

    Woke West watches as Russia and China rape Africa

    The rest of the commentators have noticed the ironic tone adopted by the author Karen Harradine. i.e shocked, shocked, that Russia and China might now be more successful in Africa that the European nations with their colonial-overlord legacy. And that Africa now trusts Russia and China more than us.

    You might be interested in her other articles.

    e.g. an interesting set of articles on “The Indoctrinators” – the Usual Suspects – George Soros, Klaus Schwab, Bill Gates and our own Saint David of Attenborough.

    And some of the back-story in Ukraine, which has been memory-holed in MSM.

  42. another ian says:

    FWIW – Ukraine

    More “end run”?

    “Russia Rapid Advance Marinka, Avdeyevka, Kupyansk; US Military Trainers Describe Dire State Ukr Army”

  43. H.R. says:

    @Keith M – You mentioned David Attenborough and I suddenly became curious as to what his payoff was to push ‘The Narrative’ in those gravitas-laden tones he whispers.

    I don’t think he played his hand very well. My search for his 2023 net worth returned $30 million and $15 million in USD. Hard to say which is correct. Even taking the higher dollar number, I was expecting that he had done better than that.

    For as many years as he has been pushing the lies, I think he was bought relatively cheap***.

    ***Unless there’s a string of trophy wives he’s paying/paid for. Then I suppose he’s done OK after all.

  44. another ian says:

    FWIW Ukraine

    “BREAKING: Hell Breaks Loose as Kakhovka Dam Completely Destroyed”

  45. another ian says:

    FWIW – Ukraine

    Yes? No? Maybe?

    “Portmortem Analysis on Kakhovka Dam Breach”

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