Global Communist Push Is The Root Cause

While the first part of this Epoch Times video is interesting (it covers 2 court cases where one finds a school CAN mandate the jab and another finds they can NOT.) it is the second part where a lady from Colombia is interviewed that I find most interesting.

You see, she points out that the Same Playbook is being run by the Global Communist movement against her country. To me, this points at the Root Cause. We know the players. Same ones are in Colombia (Antifa, BLM, etc.) and doing the same things. She then traces back to some of the origin points of their efforts and points at coordination footprints in the sand…

While I think it is worth watching both segments, you can skip forward to the 11 minute mark to just pick up the Latin American Insurgency segment:

This is, IMHO, an attempt by a Globalist Marxist Movement to destroy ALL independent nations and republics. Not a surprise, really, since their doctrines include the assertion that first you must destroy what “is” to replace it with the Utopian Communism, and they believe in the destruction of nations as “true communism” is global not national.

I think this also explains the big push to have an Open Border on the US south and import a load of folks from Latin America. It is to have an open access for a hoard of Communist Infiltration not just “refugees”. It is literally opening the door for the Communist Insurgents.

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Posted in Political Current Events | 11 Comments

My Amish Roots Are Showing… “Let’s go Brandon”!

Some Personal History

My Mum was from England. Dad was “A Yank”, but not just any old yank. His Dad was a “smith” and a Smith. Ran a smithy ( the place where a smith makes stuff at a forge) on his farm and there was this girl… She was the “forbidden fruit”. An Amish Girl from the other side of the river…

So dear Grandpa did a fair amount of work for the Amish, making horse shoes, shoeing horses, repairing ploughshares and more. Until they were married and set up a farm in Iowa. An Irish Catholic / German Smith and an Amish girl. Talk about your religious “mixed marriage”. But by keeping a largely Amish style farm, they were not rejected by the Amish community. (Not hard to do in the late 1800’s as the tech was largely the same for everyone). He kept the smithy running on his farm, largely for the Amish friends and family, until he could work no more. Grandpa passed in his ’90s, on the farm, when I was about 3 years old, so he was working through W.W.II era.

So Dad’s Mum was Amish. Somewhere along the line I absorbed a fair bit of their attitudes. At about 8 years old I was straightening Square Nails used to make the “garage” on our 1/4 acre lot home. We took it apart to pour a new floor. Dad explained that straightening old was better than making new… and he also taught me to save wood in a wood pile and to do all sorts of Amish like things. We drilled a well and I pushed a hand plough through a 50 x 20 foot garden for several years. (We poured cement for a floor in this 1800’s era “garage” and reassembled it using said square nails and wood). FWIW, last time I looked, it was still standing…

Not a full on farm experience, but enough to assure I knew how to operate one if the need ever arrived.

So despite my being a Computer Guy, the Amish run in my blood…

The Amish and Chinese Wuhan Covid

So this link from The True Nolan caught my eye:

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2021/10/01/w-o-o-d-1-october-2021/#comment-151800

I have wondered how the Amish were doing with COVID. According to this popularly written article they are just a good or better than the sky-is-falling crowd.
https://tapnewswire.com/2021/10/covid-and-the-amish-theres-no-evidence-of-any-more-deaths-among-the-amish-than-in-places-that-shut-down-tight/

Both because many of them are my relatives, and because they are a very good Control Group.

Probably that ancestral value set also explains why I dress plain (not as plain as full on Amish, so I have buttons, but just dull off the rack clothes and colors heavy on blues and greys. I like a manual transmission, prefer crank windows, and think GMO is just wrong.

Whatever.

The article is well worth the read. These are folks who work in the Sun, eat close to the land, and a lot, and typically live a rustic long life of work.

Correcting A Misdirection In Some Articles

When looking at some articles, they talk about the “Mennonite Amish”. IMHO, that’s ignorance. The Amish split from the Mennonites. Often an Amish who leaves will join the Mennonites. The Amish often think the Mennonites too “modern” and too willing to adopt the ways of the “English”. Mennonites often have a telephone or drive a car, for example. To call a doctor, for example, an Amish may run to a Mennonite neighbor and ask them to make the call.

Conflating those two is a very “English” POV. (Anyone not of the German Amish culture is typically referred to as “English”, regardless of actual heritage). While there is a shared root, they are very different groups in their organization, religious rules, and beliefs. It would be like calling both Eastern Orthodox and Roman Catholics “Catholics”. Close, but not quite right. Or calling Lutherans and Methodists Presbyterians. They are all Protestants, but of a different sort. You just don’t have a Lutheran Presbyterian.

Both the Amish and the Mennonites are anabaptists, but they are not the same.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anabaptism

Anabaptism (from Neo-Latin anabaptista, from the Greek ἀναβαπτισμός: ἀνά- “re-” and βαπτισμός “baptism”, German: Täufer, earlier also Wiedertäufer) is a Christian movement which traces its origins to the Radical Reformation.

Among the Anabaptist groups still present are mainly the Amish, Brethren, Hutterites and Mennonites. In the 21st century, there are large cultural differences between assimilated Anabaptists, who do not differ much from Evangelicals, and traditional groups like the Amish, the Old Colony Mennonites, the Old Order Mennonites, Old Order River Brethren, the Hutterites and the Old German Baptist Brethren.

The early Anabaptists formulated their beliefs in a confession of faith called the Schleitheim Confession. In 1527, Michael Sattler presided over a meeting at Schleitheim (in Schaffhausen canton, on the Swiss-German border), where Anabaptist leaders drew up the Schleitheim Confession of Faith (doc. 29). Sattler was arrested and executed soon afterwards. Anabaptist groups varied widely in their specific beliefs, but the Schleitheim Confession represents foundational Anabaptist beliefs as well as any single document can.

Anabaptists believe that baptism is valid only when candidates freely confess their faith in Christ and request to be baptized. This believer’s baptism is opposed to baptism of infants, who are not able to make a conscious decision to be baptized.
Anabaptists are those who are in a traditional line with the early Anabaptists of the 16th century. Other Christian groups with different roots also practice believer’s baptism, such as Baptists, but these groups are not Anabaptist. The Amish, Hutterites, and Mennonites are direct descendants of the early Anabaptist movement. Schwarzenau Brethren, River Brethren, Bruderhof, and the Apostolic Christian Church are considered later developments among the Anabaptists.

The name Anabaptist means “one who baptizes again”. Their persecutors named them this, referring to the practice of baptizing persons when they converted or declared their faith in Christ even if they had been baptized as infants, and many prefer to call themselves “Radical Reformers.” Anabaptists require that baptismal candidates be able to make a confession of faith that is freely chosen and so rejected baptism of infants. The New Testament teaches to repent and then be baptized, and infants are not able to repent and turn away from sin to a life of following Jesus. The early members of this movement did not accept the name Anabaptist claiming that infant baptism was not part of scripture and was therefore null and void. They said that baptizing self-confessed believers was their first true baptism:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brethren_(religious_group)

Anabaptist groups
These groups grew out of the Anabaptist movement at the time of the Protestant Reformation (16th century).

The Hutterites, also known as Hutterian Brethren, originated from German, Swiss, and Tyrolean Anabaptists led by Jacob Hutter in the 1520s

The Swiss Brethren, the name Swiss Anabaptists used from 1525 until their split into Amish and Mennonite groups in 1693

The Mennonite Brethren, originated among Russian Mennonites in 1860

So for about 300+ years the Amish and Mennonites have been distinct.

Just keep that in mind when reading articles that say “Amish Mennonites” or similar such “English” POV imprecision.

So when someone tells me there’s some “Vaccine Mandate” I’m going to just channel my Inner Amish and say “No Sir. It is not in The Bible and so will not be in me.” I’m very happy to know my Amish kin are doing well with their choice. (As I am doing well with mine).

There’s a lot of Old Wisdom kept alive by the Amish and the Mennonites and other Old Order groups. I find it interesting that an Amish dressed for Church is often similarly dressed to an Orthodox Jew dressed for Temple. A bit of difference in the sideburns is sometimes about all you notice. Preserving Old Wisdom is good for all of us, and destruction of Old Order practitioners of any sort is unacceptable.

Then again, I like to save old books on how to build steam engines, how to run a smithy, what plants and herbs have medicinal uses… all sorts of Old Knowing. History is very much your friend. Study the Old Ways, as you just might need them some day; and they can often be helpful even now.

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Posted in Biology Biochem, Covid, Emergency Preparation and Risks, History, Human Interest | 23 Comments

Friends Of Australia Friday: 15 October 2021

It’s once again an Australia Time Friday! It’s FRIDAY!!!!

The Tucker

Recovering from a week of “excitement”, tonight was just Lamburgers with Colby Jack for the cheese, and a side salad. We used “heels” from loaves of bread for the buns and it worked well.

Side Salad was just Butter Lettuce and Ranch.

The Wine

One again, wine was Samuel Wynn Dice With Destiny red blend 2017.

I did pick up another wine, but that will be for next week

The News

Due to events of this week, I’m just not following the news much.

Feel free to post things you know where I’m distracted.

Near as I can tell, the only big deal is that China is in trouble. Karma, gotta luv it… but I don’t know what’s going on in Australia this week. Sorry.

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Posted in cooking, Food, News Related | 6 Comments

Evergrande – China Property Collapse?

This needs a bit of a Dig Here! and a bit of a think. I’ve not seen this guy’s stuff before. It just showed in the “recommended” line on Roku Youtube. The basic thrust of it is that a company named Evergrande is in default and it’s a whale in the Chinese Housing Market while China has $62 Trillion(!) in market cap of housing / real estate. Plus other housing builders are also on the rocks.

The assertion (which is not proved) is that as Evergrande goes, so goes the Chinese Housing Market and as Chinese Real Estate goes, so goes China, and a China Collapse takes down the world due to our dependence on them for global production.

I think there are links in this chain that are not proven (but look plausible) and that there are potential “firebreaks” that governments could provide that are not considered. OTOH, with global central banks pegged at zero interest rates or near zero, not a lot of those firebreaks are likely to work well. “Liquidity Trap” writ global.

It looks really bad, but I don’t have time ATM for a Deep Dive, so this is just a shallow toe in the pool.

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LEAKED REPORT: It’s Far Worse Than We Imagined! China’s $62 Trillion Housing Bubble

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My biggest concerns would be:

1) China needs a “Wag The Dog” so invades Taiwan to blame any financial collapse on Western Instigated War… as is often done.

2) Western financial powers have managed to put their dangly bits into Chinese Real Estate and the contagion of this STD (Structural Transmissible Decay) goes global.

I’d not care much at all if China augers in, as long as it doesn’t take down EU, UK, Australian and USA financial systems and banks in the process. I figure Japan is smart enough to not be on the hook in China, and likely a fair number of Muslim Countries are similarly isolated (but who knows… another Dig Here! on degree of China real estate exposure globally is needed).

This link makes it look plausible, perhaps even probable:

https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/will-chinas-evergrande-contagion-spread-beyond-real-estate/”

RAISINA DEBATESOCT 13 2021

Will China’s Evergrande contagion spread beyond real estate?
ABHIJIT MUKHOPADHYAY

The fear that the recent real estate sector crisis in China could stretch into the international commodity market and domestic consumption market looms large

Buried under a huge US $305 billion debt and almost on the brink of collapse, China’s real estate giant Evergrande Group defaulted twice on payments to offshore bondholders in September 2021. More damning is the fact that the group is yet to announce any plan to repay those investors.

This has sent shockwaves through financial markets across the globe.

So a load of the debt in default is external global debt in $US. That’s not good. 1/3 $Trillion is a bit stunning too.

China has been the principal driver of the post-pandemic global recovery. It is the first country returning back to the pre-pandemic output level. In the process, China became the single-most important factor in the global commodities market upturn.

We’ve had a post-pandemic recovery, have we? Um, “facts not in evidence” I’d say. “Ongoing Malaise” seems more accurate. 2 weeks to slow the spread has become 2 years to increase mandates… Worker shortages and walkouts are increasing.

China’s extended boom run in the property sector started in the mid-1990s and continued unabated. As a result, almost three-fourth of the country’s household wealth is now engaged in housing. With large offshore investments in Chinese high-yield (HY) real estate bonds, financial markets in other countries now are exposed to substantial risk of contagion.

Is “Extended Boom” now the term of art for “Incredibly Inflating Bubble”? /snark;

And it looks like The Usual international “financial wizards” are up to their gizzards in it. No wonder The Dimocrats are looking to mint a $1 Trillion coin…

It is no wonder that China HY bonds index tumbled in the aftermath (Figure 1). Foreign investors have taken out US $8.1 billion out of the Chinese debt portfolio in September—the largest outflow in the last six months.

So $8 Billion out, and “only” about $298 Billion to go… The Graph has the usual downward slope at about 45 degrees with a 23% loss so far, If I’m Reading It Right (mice-type…)

The empire of Evergrande Group spans over 1,300 housing projects in nearly 300 cities, a football team (Guangzhou FC), an island holiday resort with 58 hotels and 15 under-construction Chinese Disneyland-like theme parks. This empire is erected mostly by borrowed money from domestic and international markets. Currently, it has 800 unfinished residential buildings, numerous unpaid suppliers, and over a million home buyers who have partially paid for their properties.

The group is also in wealth management products, and those are mostly sold to its own employees. Under the current circumstances, the group would be unable to discharge the guarantees on many of these products. For obvious reasons, insider selling has started, if grapevines are to be believed.

That’s a whole lot of pissed off folks panic ridden and looking for an exit. This will not end easily or soon.

Evergrande used to bid for land at prices significantly higher than market prices. Apparently, this is a common practice amongst Chinese companies. Evergrande excelled at that on its way up to becoming the property giant selling home-ownership dreams to the Chinese middle class. Earlier this overinflating price did not affect the property developers as the risks were finally transferred to the flat buyers and the banks that financed those purchases.

So, OK, any inventory of land and “under construction” are at over market costs and will not yield relief. Got it.

This model has worked fine for households, real estate developers, banks, and local governments up until now because housing prices were soaring up. Rising residential property prices took care of artificial overinflating of land prices. However, this was bound to affect affordability of home and household debt at some point. And it did this time.
[…]

It then goes into how the “Covid Pandemic” dumped cold water on this hot bubble and once deflation sets in, it doesn’t stop very soon.

And, of course, there’s a Government Intervention angle:

This all started in 2020, when the People’s Bank of China (PBC) and the Ministry of Housing announced new financing rules for real estate companies, often called as the “three red lines”. Those were –

) a 70 percent ceiling on liabilities to asset ratio, excluding advance proceeds from projects sold on contract,

) a 100 percent cap on net debt to equity, and

) a cash to short-term borrowing ratio of at least 1.

The objective of imposing these borrowing restrictions primarily was to prevent a housing bubble and a subsequent disastrous bust. China was eager not to repeat Japan’s mistake of not controlling excessive credit in the 1990s and not shutting down insolvent borrowers quickly. Those mistakes caused long-term damage to Japanese growth.

However, Evergrande’s illiquid portfolio of property projects are financed by more than US $300 billion of domestic and international liabilities, and 80 percent of these are short-term. The group has a huge liquidity mismatch.
Apparently, the cash flow plays a vital part in the growth of these Chinese real estate companies that almost operate like a credit-driven Ponzi scheme. So, like other companies in the sector, Evergrande also struggled to abide by those new “three red lines”. Even in September 2020, there had been reports of a possible cash crunch at Evergrande, leading to a brief liquidity scare.

In the Chinese property sector, therefore, symptoms of stress were bound to appear. Fantasia Holdings has defaulted on a US $206 million bond payment in the beginning of October 2021. Sinic Holdings, another developer, now has to undergo a rating downgrade after some of its units missed interest payments on onshore financing arrangements.

And others in the sector are getting the whack too.

The article then goes on to point out softness and early roll over of various commodities. Given the global slow down and a collapsing Real Estate build demand, I’d expect that to happen. IF this expands to be a general recession in China (and thus the globe) it will likely be brutal on commodities used in building.

OK, I’m busy boxing up the house and clearing the yard trees from the roof so the roofers have a free field. I don’t have the time ATM to Dig Here!, but clearly it needs it. Some time in the next day or three maybe I’ll find time while resting between ladder & tree sessions.

“May you live in interesting times”… Right when you think you are going to just move to Florida, you get a Pandemic, a “death in the family”, a “construction zone prep”, prohibitions on flying, strikes pilot shortages and “weather” events, and so much more. AND I’ve been running down my “Prep Stores” preparatory to moving. Maybe I need to revisit that particular decision.

Then again, consider the alternatives… At least I’m not bored or cold and stiff. (I know, thin tea that… But it could be worse, we could have an idiot with dementia for POTUS and China running the US Government via proxy… Oh, wait!)

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Posted in Economics - Trading - and Money, Emergency Preparation and Risks, Political Current Events, World Economics | 7 Comments