This is an “overflow” page from Tips as Tips had gotten so large it was taking a long time to load. Same idea, just a new set of space to put pointers to things of interest.
While I’m mostly interested in things having to do with:
Making money, usually via trading
Weather and climate
Quakes, Volcanoes, and other Earth Sciences
Current economic and political events
(often as those last three have impact on the first one…)
And just about any ‘way cool’ interesting science or technology
You can also look at the list of “Categories” on the right hand side and get an idea of any other broad area of interest.
This ought not to be seen as a “limit” on what is “interesting”, more as a “focus list” with other things that are interesting being fair game as well.
Musings from the Chiefio 
YAY! T2 is here.
I made a sandwich while I was waiting for Tips to load to see what you had posted and by golly! You got that bit of housekeeping going.
Thank you, sir!
At last! I can return to following “tips” Thank you Mr.Smith. 8-) pg
Wandering around “Ultraviolet”, “Clouds”, etc., and came across this page in Wikipedia (you may have already covered this tidbit) FWIW – “Solar water disinfection”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_water_disinfection
PS: Glad to hear you may be able to post more frequently in the new location. Take care!
@Pascvaks:
That’s a great technique for “emergency preparedness” too… Empty soda bottles and sunshine to purify water. Very nice “field expedient solution”.
Last week I took on a new car project that was catching dust for a long time.
In my garage I had the complete drive train, axles springs, breaks, engine, gearbox etc. of a crashed VW Lupo 3L, the first factory produced 3 liter car in the world. It has been in production from 1999 to 2005.
The little car unfortunately didn’t sell the big numbers because of the relative high price of 18.500 Euro’s in 2005. A conventional Lupo SDI with a 1.7 liter diesel engine came at about 10.000 Euro.
The Lupo 3L came with a weight reduction of 150 kg compared to the Lupo SD and a lower CW rating of 0.29 compared to 0.32 for the SD.
The weight reduction according to VW was achieved by a consequent application of low weight materials like aluminum, magnesium and composite where possible without compromising crash safety, whatever they mean by that. The light weight materials had been applied for the hood, the doors, the tailgate, the fenders, axles, springs, the frames of the seats and last but not least, the 1200 cc diesel engine and gearbox.
The original 3L also came with thinner wind panes and a 12 year warranty on the body. In short it was a car designed to last.
Unfortunately the designers went to far with their quest for weight reduction when they designed a rear axle that was 27 kilo’s lighter but caused severe under steering when the car went into a curve at higher speed.
This was the reason I got the parts very cheap because the car I bought had overturned and crashed.
According to VW they solved the under steer problem by replacing the aluminum/magnesium/cpmposite tailgate for a conventional steel one and by moving the car battery from the engine bay to the trunk. This was a quite disappointing solution if you ask me because the new tailgate had cost VW millions to design, for tooling and production and the result was a heavier but even more expensive car.
A few weeks ago I found a Lupo SD Open Air body which was in a perfect state but was without an engine for a scrap price and I decided to turn this car into a 3L.
For this purpose I completely cleaned out the body including the dash, the steering wheel the interior and the electric cables.
I first replaced the front axle and the steering wheel.
As a next step I installed the engine and the gearbox, in short everything under the hood including the rvs exhaust which forced me to have a closer look at the back of the car.
When I had a closer look I found two big lumps of steel, 9 kg each used as counter weights bolted onto the inside of the rear fender.
I really was flabbergasted.
Here we had a top notch car producer investing hundreds of millions in a ground breaking car design using the latest production methods and materials ending up bolting counter weights on their production cars in order to keep them safe on the road.
I’m sure the environment loving members of the Lupo 3L club who spend their day’s saving the planet by further boosting the fuel efficiency of their eco cars replacing rear view mirrors with lcd camera’s and franticly checking their tire pressure, picking dead flies from the radiator in order to squeeze another kilometer out of a liter bio diesel will be happy to find out their cars carry 18 kg of dead weight in the back.
I am not going to tell them but when I visited their blog I found a self study
document about the Lupo 3L for VW mechanics and sales staff which is worth a read.
Click to access SSP_218.pdf
I think VW can do better and so can I.
I will replace the 1.2 liter eco engine with an Audi V8, 4motion technology salvaged from the scrap yard, all the counter weight necessary to optimize traction and do some serious drag racing.
I prefer the smell of gasoline and burned rubber over eco hypocracy anytime.
Heads up, Chief – earthquake swarm to your southeast and also activity up Cloverdale/Clear Lake near Santa Rosa.
_Michael
@Michael:
Thanks, I’ll take a look…
@R. de Haan:
Wasn’t my 300TD a 3 L production engine? In the 1980s? ;-)
I’ve owned a few VWs. IMHO, they have always had “too cheap for their own good” elements. (Wouldn’t mind an old Ghia, though ;-)
Very interesting speech by Dr. Gerald Pollack on the discovery of and implications of the process where water molecules self organise into liquid crystals. May be (in my opinion) a factor in climate change, as well as a possible way of harnessing solar energy.
@Jason Calley:
A rather amazing video! I find myself thinking about so many “connections” that it’s .. it’s… well, it’s been a while since I was this “jazzed”. From the potential to make hydrophilic nano particles for cloud seeding (perhaps energized by IR beams…) to question about the formation of life near IR rich “smokers” at the bottoms of the ocean to sun driven cloud enhancement (seen daily in Florida…) to… well, a long list…
What happens to the notion of CO2 as IR blocker if added IR causes more water to form clouds and limit sunshine in?
This is going to take a while to think about…
Oh, and now I’m wondering if a similar process as formed the “water bridge” might be active in plasmas in space and explain the “conduits” that carry charge in Birkeland Currents… It won’t be just water that does this, but it ought to happen in most any fluid with polar particles.
Just up on the BBC a new treatment for some cancers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-15039216
Uses alpha radiation particals in a targeted medication
“Doctors at London’s Royal Marsden Hospital gave prostate cancer patients a powerful alpha radiation drug and found that they lived longer, and experienced less pain and side effects.
The medics then stopped the trial of 922 people, saying it was unethical not to offer all of them the treatment.” pg
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2010JD015396.shtml New paper finds solar energy at Earth’s surface greatly increased between 1973 and 1998
http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-09-galactic-danger-zone.html
Measurements of the galactic abundance of the isotope aluminum-26, which is a common by-product of type II supernovae, have allowed astronomers to ascertain that a supernova explodes on average once every 50 years. Meanwhile, previous studies have indicated that a supernova can have a deleterious effect on any habitable planet within 30 light years.
“In our model, we assume that the build-up of oxygen and the ozone layer is required for the emergence of complex life,” says Gowanlock. “Supernovae can deplete the ozone in an atmosphere. Therefore, the survival of land-based complex life is at risk when a nearby supernova sufficiently depletes a great fraction of the ozone in a planet’s atmosphere.”
http://www.skyandtelescope.com/observing/highlights/129968728.html
Ohhhhhhhhhhh I thought it was the asthma pumps doing it! http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504763_162-20110642-10391704.html not that pesky old sun either? http://getdemotivated.com/main.php?g2_view=core.DownloadItem&g2_itemId=2902&g2_serialNumber=1
I’m sure the Asthma pump is more powerful then the solar flare or the supernova!
@Jason Calley
Fascinating video. Thank you. I think I’ll have something to say about it too when I’ve thought it through.
E.M., The 3 Litres R de Haan is referring to in the Lupo 3L, is the fuel consumption per 100 km, not the engine displacement… :)
And R de Haan, I’m prepared to bet that that sort of ‘solution’ – bolting on large and solid lumps of metal to add a bit of stabilty, is a lot more common than many would imagine.
@Chucles, you’re right.
You find ballast and counter weights in cars, ships, aircraft, you name it.
But the Lupo 3L was a special project and after digesting all the findings I concluded they simple didn’t want the car to sell in big numbers.
For example:
Due to the light weight rear axle it wasn’t aloud to fit a tow bar to the car.
This decision alone eliminated a huge potential of buyers who undertake bicycle tours or other outdoor activities.
Instead of putting in the counter weights they could heave installed the conventional axle.
@ E.M,
Cuckles is correct. the VW Lupo 3L Tdi has a 1.2 liter engine and a fuel consumption of 3 liters per 100 km.
Hierro Canary Islands Spain risk alert increased to YELLOW
http://earthquake-report.com/2011/09/25/el-hierro-canary-islands-spain-volcanic-risk-alert-increased-to-yellow/
http://www.nytimes.com/1996/03/03/news/dams-for-water-supply-are-altering-earth-s-orbit-expert-says.html
If dams can change the spin of the earth slightly, are dams keeping the freshwater away from glaciers, causing some to decline?
R.de haan, I wish I could find thirty pounds of blubber to remove off my car. Anyone with an ounce of performance in mind would rather redesign/ upgrade the suspension than add weight. Driving a car at its limits on a track is one of the few eccentricities I have allowed myself.( This darn weak economy is taking away that fun too.)
Scarlet P.
I don’t think that is the worry, Most environmentalist worry about the evaporation from man made lakes. If anything glaciers should have more water to refresh themselves once this last warming period has petered out.
And if we do a good job with controlling our planets temperature the miles deep glaciers over most of north america should dwarf the spin loss from a few lakes.;-Q
http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c0134840e51fd970c-pi
Check out the chart 10 degrees C increase in temperature 10,000 years ago (and plants and animals here today survived)
And whats with the massive increase in temperature 130,000 years ago, it looks like a stock running!
@Chuckles: Oh! I remember now! Those European units that are upside down and backwards! ;-)
(I’m sure everyone in Europe regularly drives exactly 100 km making it a very useful number… but over here in The Colonies we drive different distances all the time; so we like to know how far we can get on the amount of gas we have. ;-)
@R. de Haan:
Oh Dear! Aren’t the Canaries where they thought a slab of mountain might cause a tsunami to wipe out NYC?
@Bruce:
The biggest “sin” of the counterweight is that the mass could have been used for something else that did give better performance. More sturdy axle. Larger tires. Heck, just make the trunk bigger for more luggage! It’s a ‘patch’ and a ‘kludge’. It may be a USEFUL hack, but it’s still just a hack and they could have done better. (Heck, just slide the seats further back and give more leg room then extend the trunk… shifts center of mass rearward while being useful..)
@Scarlet Pumpernickel:
Prior interglacials have been more “peaky”, per the charts. I think a ‘rock fall’ into the North American Ice Shield (that left good Platinum deposits in an odd mine in Canada, btw…) ‘chopped off the peak’ for us. Our chart goes up not as far, then flattish for about 10,000 years, but has now reached about the same location on the downside of prior peaks… “lookout below!” comes to mind…
The only good news is that the “plunge” is essentially static in terms of a human lifetime. Might matter to the next empire 1000 years out (as the Roman Optimum mattered to the Romans before us, but to us, not so much…)
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2009/10/fezzan/bowden-text.html
500BC – 500 AD it was warmer – evidence is clear
Today how is the Sahara going?
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/07/090731-green-sahara.html
12,000 years ago it was much much warmer, the desert was green!
About 5,000 years ago the rains stopped once more, the lakes disappeared, and the desert took hold. Yet this time the people stayed. Rock art suggests they had already made the transition from hunting to raising livestock. Next came the rise of a society that would begin building towns and make the transition to agriculture: the Garamantian civilization. –> 5000 years ago was the peak of warming recently (Holocene Climatic Optimum), since then we have not come anywhere close to this temperature, we actually are in quite a cool phase..
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2008/09/green-sahara/gwin-text
One for the hippies who think it’s the warmest ever using 1979 as the benchmark to base it on
http://articles.sfgate.com/2008-08-15/news/17121329_1_sahara-desert-desert-winds-researchers
OMG it was hotter 5000 years ago, I though the Satellite from 1979 said it was hotter now?
OMG when it was COLDER 16,000 years ago the desert looked like today, when it got WARMER 9000 years ago the desert became WET. Is the Desert DRY or WET today? Lets think really really hard?
http://archaeology.about.com/od/africa/ss/gobero_2.htm
http://www.space.com/12450-unknown-comet-earth-threat-meteor-shower-evidence.html
http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/09/13/why_is_it_americas_job_to_save_the_world_from_asteroids
Why does USA spend only $5.5million a year to track NEO? They should be spending $1billion. Why do they just focus on CO2 when one asteroid or one comet could destroy all life on the planet, and after seeing several hits of a comet into Jupiter in a very short time span, why don’t we act. Remember the AGW precautionary principle, its better to act just in case!!
@ Scarlet Pumpernickel “Why do they just focus on CO2 when one asteroid or one comet could destroy all life on the planet, ”
Your frustration obviously comes from your nature as an honorable, rational, intelligent person – and your expectation that those who control our civilization be of the same high quality as you. :)
The reason why the focus is on CO2 is that control of CO2 is essentially equivalent to control of all energy usage. Imagine that you are a highly intelligent sociopath who desires nothing more than godlike power and control of all humans. Hmmmm…. that whole CO2 cap and trade starts to look pretty good!
Might you want to comment on (at) Erl Happ’s new post at WUWT, not only with additional information if you wish, but also with references (links) to some of your research? http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/09/28/cloud-cools/#more-48301 (In all your spare time, now that you are relocated and comfortable for awhile. Congratulations. And you seem to have a new appreciation of “water” in all its variations from living in Florida. It would be very difficult for me to transplant from the California climate. Best regards.)
Happ: “Summarizing [C]: Does the presence of cloud result in surface warming? No. In January, global cloud cover is 3% greater than July. Irradiance [solar insolation?] 7% greater. Surface temperature 4° cooler. Will a warmer sun heat the Earth? Not necessarily. It depends upon what happens to the cloud. If there were less land and more sea the ocean would gradually warm.”
The conclusion: Clouds cool.
It seems that WUWT and others are beginning to get “the system” of global warming and cooling from a number of different perspectives, “caused” by clouds affecting Earth’s “temperature”. Soon these ideas will become “common knowledge” for everyday thinking people. IOW, the AGW warmists will not be able to pull the wool over anyone’s eyes with their silly feedback business or “hidden heat” in the ocean. Too many in the know, thanks to the hard work of bloggers and scientists.
Using NCDC data, the reported average temperature trend for the US does not agree with the mean, nor the area-weighted average, of the 48 contiguous states. NCDC reports the temperature trend for the 48 contiguous states is plus 1.2 degrees F per century. However, the mean of the individual states is 0.78 degrees F per century, and the area-weighted average for the 48 states is 0.74 degrees F per century. The area-weighted average should give the same result as the entire lower 48 states. Something is not right here.
http://sowellslawblog.blogspot.com/2011/09/us-long-term-temperature-trend-from.html
I don’t think the mean of the state averages is valid because they are a mean of several means.
Imagine you have 3000 people in 50 rooms. I am not convinced that the mean height of all 3000 people is the same as the mean of the mean height in each room.
Bit of rumbling in the Canary Islands, keep thinking about Las Palmas
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/09/increasing-indications-of-an-potential-eruption-at-el-hierro/
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news171.html another close one, but the media is focused on Global warming and the money train is too
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cell-phones-on-airplanes-just-a-matter-of-time-2011-09-29?link=MW-FB The Hoax that Cell phones can effect an aeroplane
George, the example you suggested does work out the same, either way.
For just 4 rooms, and two people in each room, height in feet:
A: 4, 6
B: 6, 8 (we have a very tall person here)
C: 3, 5
D: 5, 3
Avg for A is 5
for B is 7
for C is 4
for D is 4
sum of the averages is 20
Average of the averages is 5
sum of all the 8 individuals in the four rooms is 40: (10 + 14 + 8 + 8 = 40)
Average of all the 8 individuals in the four rooms is then 40 / 8 = 5.
I tried the simple arithmetic average of the 50 states’ temperature trends and it did not match the 1.2 given for the entire 48 states. Then I tried a weighted average, using the geographical area in square miles of each state. That also does not match. Something is very odd in this.
http://epa.gov/methane/sources.html#natural Kill the Evil termites 2nd biggest polluter on earth. Do you think the drop in DDT is causing the warming as more termites are living?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HlTxGHn4sH4&feature=player_embedded Better then Obama’s plan
George, and others, I did some more digging on the average of averages point, and found that it DOES make a difference if there are different count of objects in each basket. In the example I gave above, there were two people in each of four rooms. In that instance, the averages are identical. But, if there are a different number of people in each room, the global average and average of averages will not match.
I learned something, or re-learned something from a long-ago statistics class.
Obama
I actually won a debate with a ‘Social Progressive’ last night- she conceded. I won’t go into the details, but something that she said reminded me of a Kipling poem- so I threw it at her. After she read it on her I-Pad, or whatever you call them, she was speechless (probably because liberals can’t argue art, no matter how poor taste they have). I’m feeling pretty good right now- cheers!
http://www.kipling.org.uk/poems_copybook.htm
@Scarlet Pumpernickle:
Interesting propaganda video. Not sure what your point is… That a president rapidly discovers once in office that the world is full of folks trying to kill us and that maybe he needs a strong military action (so changes his mind about draw downs). That comparing two armies with different currencies based on the same currency shows more about the relative exchange rates than the military size? (Compare number of folks in the Army in China vs USA, for example). Or perhaps that inflation causes any recent president to spend “more” in nominal terms than the earlier presidents. Try looking at ‘fleet size’ for example. How many ships in the US Navy. It was ‘trimmed’ to 700 or so under Regan IIRC. Last I looked we were headed for under 400. WW.II. was far more.
So, in the end, I’m left looking at the video and thinking “Gee, even Obama can learn”… yet that is clearly not was intended by the makers of the video…
@Sera:
Way To Go!
I’ve noticed the “Progressives” have far more strict stereotypes of the rest of the world than we have. So sometimes they will take a rant at me and I’ll get to list the litany of things where I’m not “conservative” at all. Oh, and I like art too… and own a few books of poetry and ALL of The Bard… and… well, I just find them terribly trapped in their paradigms…
So I’m adamantly anti-smoking, yet against government efforts to ban smoking and will fight for smokers rights to smoke (away from my nose…) and I’m of the opinion that government ought to have no place at all in the ‘question’ of abortion. Nor ought men. Between a woman, her Doctor, and her God (if any). Rest of us ought to go find something else to worry over. Will some evil be done for some ‘unborn’ due to that? Sure. Can’t fix everything and sometimes you have choices of “bad or worse”; but I can think of no one better situated to make the decision than “the Mom”… Gun rights? Think “open carry” ought to be legal everywhere (and concealed carry in most places) with no licenses or permits. Yet also think that anyone who abuses the right and uses it to harm or intimidate others ought to go off to the poky “right quick”… (a bunch of ‘dozen plus’ shootings would turn into ‘one and the criminal’ in a hurry) and oh, btw, that an abused woman is prima facie evidence of “self defense” and a free pass in a shooting… for her OR someone coming to her aide. Marijuana? No reason for a federal law. Ought to be NO war on drugs. Individual states? I’d rather they got out of it too, but they have their own voters and constitutions… The list goes on…
So they try to put me in the “Conservative White Male Businessman” box with various bigotries and hangups and all… and discover I’m not. What I do have is a strong commitment to individual rights, responsibilities, AND Liberties. An old school “Liberal” in the Classical Liberal (i.e. like an American Libertarian without some of the kooky bits) sense. Really puts their panties in a bunch, most of the time.
@Roger and George:
Yes, something is wrong. Once you start averaging intensive / intrinsic properties you have gone off the deep end. Then expecting the averages of averages to clean it up is even worse. You just can’t get heat information out of averaging temperatures. In any combination. You must have masses and specific heats… and heats of fusion and vaporization… and … BUT, is there some OTHER math bogosity going on too? Probably… IMHO.
@Chucles:
That is one very big worry point….
I’m pretty sure we’re going to get a major volcanic event out of this solar cycle slowdown, just the ‘when and where’ are murky… but would rather it did not involve volcanoes sliding into the Atlantic… Then again, if it’s that or Mammoth…
@Pyromancer76:
Thanks for pointing me at that. I’d likely have missed it. The spouse is due to visit next week and I’m doing “convert to a tourist” behaviours. (Packing the portable kitchen, packing enough clothes to live the tourist style, getting tickets, etc.). Consequentaly, not a lot of time at WUWT right now…
Yes, looks to me like a nicely reasoned and supported path to “cool under clouds”… Though I didn’t realize it was such a concern. I’ve just always noticed that it’s a LOT cooler under clouds just about anywhere and when on the planet. (Some rare nighttime cloud events keep things a bit warmerm but are swamped when the sun rises).
But yes, I’d agree: The Era Of Bafflegab is fading as more ‘folks’ know how to argue the science…
@Scarlet Pumpernickle:
Interesting stuff… I’m pretty sure that volcanoes or rocks from space will get us before most everything else. (Only higher risks I see are nuclear wars and / or bacterial…) But “rock fall” is way up there.
Getting reaquented with ones spouse is the most important thing you can do. I’m sure we will still be here when you are ready to return to the keyboard. pg
OMG realllllllllllllllllllyyyyyyyyy wow yipppeeee they worked out that CFC does not govern the ozone layer!!!!!!
“The study, published by Nature, challenges conventional thinking about the Arctic’s susceptibility to ozone holes. This thinking is based on only a few decades of satellite observations.” http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/brutal-northern-winter-sees-ozone-hole-open-over-the-arctic-20111003-1l4la.html#ixzz1ZgGDhCDw
Try
(a) The Sun
(b) Cosmic Rays
(c) Nuclear Testings http://www.cddc.vt.edu/host/atomic/atmosphr/index.html
(d) Volcanoes http://cfc.geologist-1011.net/
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2011-308&rn=news.xml&rst=3158 <— time to defund NASA their Global warming is causing cooling is a joke
And once again proves computer models don't work, just last year they said the Ozone hole was "Fixed". This is another example of their too short observation period with their satellites and thinking that man is causing natural processes which they have little understanding of.
http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_898_en.html
Re the Obama video, I just still think it’s funny how he got the peace prize, but he actually has more wars then Bush (6 at the moment) and the Afgan war has been really escalated in troop numbers as well.
It seems that Afghanistan is really just a drug war. Probably we are fighting China by proxy there. China is anti drugs as it destabilizes their country. They have pretty much sorted out areas like Burma, Vietnam (previous wars), and all those areas in the golden triangle. Afghanistan is the last stand. You can’t have 100,000 US troops there and still be losing constantly and not have another major country funding the other side. If you look at poppy production charts, poppy production was lowest under the Taliban (contrary to what we are fed in the media that they are pro drug, the Northern Alliance are the drug lords) with the lowest year 2001, the highest years were the last few with poppy production skyrocketing even though so many troops are there….
http://www.science.uwaterloo.ca/~qblu/Lu-2009PRL.pdf Cosmic ray and Ozone link…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859 and this might have affected it too
E.M. Might be of interest
From comments at http://joannenova.com.au/2011/10/this-is-90-certainty-really-yet-another-paper-shows-the-hot-spot-is-missing/#comments
(You’ll have to check Jo Nova as the links in the following don’t seem to have copied)
“Truthseeker
October 3, 2011 at 9:43 am · Reply
The best comment about climate models I have read from a person that actually uses computer models to do very real things.
Also, a published paper showing how the climate computer models of the IPCC violate a large number of established forecasting principles.
A good and understandable explanation of the physics behind what actually drives atmospheric temperatures. I must commend the owner of that site. Despite being a rabid CAGW proponent, he does allow unfettered and uncensored discussions on his blog. Maybe he just doesn’t bother reading the comments …
——————————————————————————–
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/29sep_cosmicrays/
http://getdemotivated.com/main.php?g2_view=core.DownloadItem&g2_itemId=2902&g2_serialNumber=1
And people seriously believed fridges and spray cans made a hole?
http://joannenova.com.au/2011/10/this-is-90-certainty-really-yet-another-paper-shows-the-hot-spot-is-missing/
Now that the Ozone layer has flipped to the north and they have no clue, they still have not found the hot spot, they can’t even pretend to find it lol
Deniers update for the week
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14948730?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
http://www.amazon.com/dp/1419639226/ref=cm_sw_r_fa_dp_W6JFob0PYBDDV
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/272803/Prince-Andrew-wastes-150-000-on-Saudi-Arabia-trip-to-meet-Bin-Laden-s-family- Britain sends up to 75 per cent of its arms exports to Saudi Arabia, which earlier this year stamped down on pro-democracy activists eager to spread the Arab Spring revolutions to the kingdom. The Saudi military also went to the aid of the beleaguered King of Bahrain and brutally repressed pro-democracy protesters in the country, reportedly using UK-manufactured armoured vehicles.
Guess UK is Jealous with Peace Prizes http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704621204575488361149625050.html $60 Billion Deal with the country with no Democracy where all the hijackers (almost) from 911 came from?
I still don’t get why a non Democractic dictator country is ok? All the hijackers came from Saudi. I don’t think many are aware how rich and how much power the Bin Laden group are. And how many massive projects they are involved in, some of the largest in the world.
Osama bin Laden’s father, a Saudi construction magnate, built this highway in the 1960s connecting the kingdom to his ancestral homeland of Yemen, and it was along this same stretch of asphalt that Osama bin Laden recruited 12 of the 15 Saudi youths who were among the 19 hijackers to carry out the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. http://www.npr.org/2011/09/07/140260350/road-to-sept-11-saudi-arabias-highway-15-revisited
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/02/bin-laden-group-to-build-tower/
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=051220165102.rfmm4n2n&show_article=1
http://www.wired.com/politics/law/news/2001/11/48254
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/binladen/who/family.html
BinLaden Group turning it to Las Vegas
http://politics.salon.com/2011/09/13/remembering_america_s_fall/singleton/#comments
Financed by Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal, who revels in being known as the “Arabian Warren Buffet,” the planned Kingdom Tower in Jeddah — the ultimate hyperbole for Saudi despotism — will pierce the clouds along the Red Sea coastline at an incredible altitude of one full kilometer (3,281 feet).
One World Trade Center, on the other hand, will max out at 1,776 feet above the Hudson. (Conspiracy theorists can obsess over this coincidence: the number of feet higher the Saudi Arabian tower will be than the American one almost exactly equals the number of people who died in the North Tower of the WTC in 2001.)
With little publicity, the initial billion-dollar contract for the Jeddah spire was awarded by Prince Al-Waleed to the Arab world’s mega-builders and skyscraper experts — the Binladen Group. It may keep their family name alive for centuries to come.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhkD9oSiQ2w Oh yes, and he is $16billion man lol
War is peace ;)
http://vimeo.com/28649517 Interesting doco on Food
http://ns.umich.edu/htdocs/releases/story.php?id=8587 Check out this, they are still trying really really hard to connect CO2 and temperature, but they have it wrong CO2 and life are related, not temperature
Shortest Sierra Nevada summer since 1969. Last measurable snowfall of the season was July 1. First measurable snowfall of this season is tonight.
http://www.ktvu.com/news/29385123/detail.html
Katla caldera shaking again
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1vpEcebYBg&feature=player_embedded#! .
Early snow Colorado and Mammoth Mountain. Ca
http://iceagenow.info/2011/10/eighteen-inches-snow-colorado/
http://iceagenow.info/2011/10/record-october-snow-mammoth-mountain-ca-video/
http://scrippsnews.ucsd.edu/Releases/?releaseID=1201 Now they can see the undersea eruptions a bit more….
http://www.nature.com/news/1998/010329/full/news010329-13.html Check out this tree study before Nature became corrupted
Oil is cheaper to produce then water, it should be $10 bbl….
“Lasmo estimated field production would cost around $1 per barrel”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Libya
http://www.cges.co.uk/resources/articles/2011/06/13/can-saudi-arabia-supply-the-oil-market-by-itself
Saudi can supply the whole market, and thence determines the price
http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/07/28/oil-cost-factbox-idUSLS12407420090728
The operating cost (stripping out capital expenditure) of
extracting a barrel in Saudi Arabia has been estimated to be
around $1-$2, and the total cost (including capital expenditure)
$4-$6 a barrel.
Extraction of Iraqi oil is in theory also very cheap,
although there are political and security challenges.
Industry analysts estimated total costs at between $4-6,
although they said some fields could be more expensive.
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/fundmastery/2011/09/30/u-s-energy-boom-peak-oil-postponed/ The Peak Oil Hoax is almost as funny as global warming
There seems to be Saudis appearing all over the place
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204226204576602524023932438.html
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldWithoutOzone/
So this article says Ozone gets destroyed in Winter when it’s cold, so why is ozone getting destroyed in winter now in the arctic??????????
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature10556.html
Winter 2011-2012: Brutal for the Midwest, Great Lakes
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/55832/brutal-winter-ahead-for-the-mi.asp
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/55995/worst-of-winter-20112012-aimed.asp
E.M. FYI
http://joannenova.com.au/2011/10/map-the-climate-change-scare-machine-the-perpetual-self-feeding-cycle-of-alarm/
For any who might enjoy a bit of odd humor, here is a site with some good cartoons.
http://xkcd.com/556/
That may be our esteemed and gracious host, E.M., in the last panel. :)
Early Fall Storm hits California.
Looks more like a winter stom
http://www.wdtn.com/dpps/weather/us_wx_news/early-fall-storm-brings-rain-to-california-nt11-jgr_3957972
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-14678002
“You might think of the core like the atmosphere of the Earth, being a very restless place with storms and fronts and bad weather,” says geophysicist Professor Dan Lathrop from the University of Maryland. He has built himself a massive model of the core to help explain something strange about the field – it is never fixed but constantly fluctuating.
The Earth’s magnetic field has been steadily weakening over the past 180 years. And there is one patch that is weakening faster than any other. It is an area scientists have dubbed the “South Atlantic Anomaly”, which sits over the South Atlantic and the centre of South America.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhREYCs3vcc .
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=no-arab-spring-says-us-intelligence-analyst-2011-10-07 Turkey to start WW3?
http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=26984 Obama’s new death squads
http://www.livescience.com/16315-rare-earth-elements-afghanistan.html Afgan rare earth bigger
http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=26971
http://video.godlikeproductions.com/video/Al-Awlaki_Memo_Why_The_Secrecy?id=e3ca7f1d2622f44c706
Obama death squads
http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/10/07/8211350-neutrinos-spark-wild-scientific-leaps
Commentators have been surprisingly fast to point to faster-than-light neutrinos as evidence that scientists could be wrong about lots of things, including the causes of climate change.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/this-drought-may-never-break/2008/01/03/1198949986473.html
Fire the BOM of Australia!
Was Afgan the wrong country?
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/07/30/world/main565782.shtml
“In fact, one of the most bizarre ironies of all this is that five of the hijackers lived in a motel right outside the gates of the NSA. ”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/2033791.stm
http://guardian.150m.com/september-eleven/hijackers-alive.htm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/1559151.stm
US investigators were reported to have found a hire car at Boston airport containing a copy of the Koran and an instruction manual on how to fly a plane http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/1581063.stm
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2002/02/06/saudi.htm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCi2uRS-ZnU&list=FL8TNoCa__SKk7C3g34Ct9NA&index=181 560AD Llama farts CO2 destroyed civilization
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15199065
The Sun does effect climate, SURPRISE!
Congratulation to the Scarlet Pumpernickel, you have just about loaded this thread to the point of unloadablity. ;-( pg
50 million years ago, plankton floated on Titan’s warm seas, using the energy from the nuclear reactions in the Sun. Then the dinosaurs came and added to the oil. Now today, we can see a planet circling Saturn, completely covered in Oil, the squashed fish and plants made that oil, just like earth….
http://news.stanford.edu/news/2009/april8/saturn-moon-titan-subterranean-ocean-040809.html
All the dinosaurs grouped together in their migration?
http://newsroom.ucla.edu/portal/ucla/what-caused-a-giant-arrow-shaped-213463.aspx
Evil plastic made by “fossil fuels” exists on Titan
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11378-hydrocarbon-glaciers-and-seas-may-dot-titans-poles.html
So if Titan is a “2nd Earth”, why were the seas of “Fossil Fuels” there before the fossils?
http://hanlonblog.dailymail.co.uk/2010/06/life-in-the-dark-seas-of-titan.html
Highlights
► In the late Holocene, relative sea-level rise in west Greenland slowed at 1600 A.D. ► This is during the Little Ice Age and is unexpected. ► This records mass loss either due to less precipitation or warmer air temperatures. ► We favour warmer air temperatures, as are expected under negative NAO. ► Parts of the Greenland Ice Sheet can lose mass when it is cold elsewhere. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X11003980 .
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11395765 Using a standard diffusion model, we interpret these isotopic data to represent a rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations of about 250 p.p.m. across the boundary, as compared with previous estimates of a 2,000-4,000 p.p.m. increase. The relative stability of atmospheric CO2 across this boundary suggests that environmental degradation and extinctions during the Early Jurassic were not caused by volcanic outgassing of CO2. Other volcanic effects-such as the release of atmospheric aerosols or tectonically driven sea-level change-may have been responsible for this event.
The thing that bothers me about articles like this:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21128334.000-corals-might-learn-to-adapt-to-warmer-seas.html
Is that it seems to be predicated on the notion that the seas are warming else there would be no point to the article in the first place. This comment in the article reinforces that notion: “Corals still face a gloomy future unless we stop global warming,” says Rodriguez-Lanetty.
All evidence I have seen so far show a slight cooling of ocean temperatures since 1979. ARGO also shows slight cooling since 2003 or so when the network went operational.
This gets my blood pressure up to see articles like this that while they may be true, they are completely irrelevant.
http://www.space.com/13247-moon-map-lunar-titanium.html Mine the moon for titanium ;)
@Jason Calley (about Dr. Gerald Pollack´s lecture):
http://www.giurfa.com/unified_field_explained.pptx
@Scarlet Pumpernickel (ozone):
Long time ago I wrote the following in WUWT: What if the water cycle is not closed but opened?. During summer time above the pole and due to increased radiation, atmosphere´s oxygen is turned into Ozone (O3), which during winter time and specially when there are proton flares from the sun or increased cosmic rays, as during solar minimums (mainly composed of protons-90%-, which, btw, we must remember are Hydrogen Nucleii), then these react with ozone to produce water 2H+…O3=H2O+O2 and increase the “Ozone Hole” once again , then snow fall increases ice. So we have an ice cube making machine over there.
@ScarletP,
Not sure why we’d want to mine the moon for titanium where there’s plenty of the stuff right here on earth?
Nice historic weather compilation
Click to access Weather.pdf
Your Commodity races may get more interesting over the next couple of year i’d have though that nothing on earth could make the US extractive industries more competitive but by golly the Ausies have gone and done it.
US coal to China as a major export while we (grudgingly) frack and convert to gas?
Short Australia. They just passed a bunch of global warming nonsense.
Well, Looks like folks have been busy…
It will take a few days just to get through the comments posted by Scarlet Pumpernickle. Maybe I need a “pumpernickle comments” open thread ;-)
At any rate, looks like I also need to check out the recently fast early cold weather and the return of more odd quakes (including a few more in Virginia being called aftershocks).
Oh, and I need to revisit the markets. Looks like we’re back at the SMA stacks from below, but with a bit more energy this time. WHEN prices cross the SMAs and then returns to kiss them from above, that’s the time to jump in. For now it’s just ‘range trades’ until ‘that day’. For now it’s still a roller based on the Greek wobble from hope to catastrophe…
Snow in West Virginia! I think this is the earliest I remember snow at Snowshoe.
Volcano in the Canaries, too.
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/10/14/world/africa/africa-obama-troops/
http://allafrica.com/stories/200906020555.html
Guess what, peak oil hoaxers. Obama’s starting another Vietnam with 100 troops in Uganda, with China their proxy opponent, in what could be a bigger oil reserve then Saudi!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.ugpulse.com/articles/daily/news.asp?about=Chinese+companies+eyeing+Uganda+oil&ID=10307
http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/264226
http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/269940
http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/335168/title/Columbus_blamed_for_Little_Ice_Age Too many trees caused the Ice age LOLOLOL
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21228346.800-the-real-greek-tragedy-may-be-the-climate.html
Greeks are going to destroy whole of earth due to collapse of Carbon trading as well ;)
I’m just glad I can recognize the thoughts expressed. And thrilled when something comes into focus.
My dad once, in a funk from hearing what my bother and I considered music, expressed, all the sounds of music have been played, there is nothing new so, is there a need for more /new (or something to that affect). And so it is with life, yet we play on, enthralled with our bleatings…
re: wsw with the unwashed, sort of the same fuzzy lot I was with in the early seventies, a few commune drop outs, a few uninspired students thinking going back to wooden wheels was an actual thought. Where big business was so evil.
If it weren’t a story we have heard before a thousand times it would be worth writing about.
So today,
should people fear the threat of government developing into the movie “Terminator” future world?
or” Idiotocracy”?
Consensus swings through history like a pendulum, righting it is more damaging than letting it modulate.(?)
Chilean Puyehue volcano: The ash that was deposited to the east of the volcano is being picked up in a huge ‘ashstorm’:
http://www.arctic.io/observations/64/2011-10-15/7-S40.569633-W67.804871/Argentinien-9-de%20Julio%20-%20Río%20Negro
http://crossedcrocodiles.wordpress.com/2009/06/10/uganda-oil-reserves-to-rival-saudi-arabia/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44912923/ns/world_news-africa/#.TpoFJ3JUGuI
Check out this, MSNBC can’t do 4th grade research. It tow’s Obama’s line that we are “Hunting Bushman” with special forces. Maybe they should have said they are there to hunt Zebra?
Got some comedy for the day
A profile of Iran’s Mir-Hossein Mousavi, an anti-Western radical mysteriously turned reformist in his bid to replace Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as Iran’s president.
http://middleeast.about.com/od/iran/p/mir-hossein-moussavi-profile.htm
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1904343,00.html
http://rt.com/usa/news/have-us-marines-murdered-in-beirut-been-forgotten/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Beirut_barracks_bombing
It is weird that USA likes Mousavi now or is it just me? LOL
E.M. FYI if not aii ready posted.
Check out
http://joannenova.com.au/2011/10/messages-from-the-global-raw-rural-data-warnings-gotchas-and-tree-ring-divergence-explained/
You’re quoted in comments
@Another Ian:
Well, thanks!
Having now sunk my day into reading and posting there, I’m going to have to put off my planned posting on how rain impacts Orlando ;-)
Well, maybe after a lunch break ;-)
Well worth it, though. Frank has done a wonderful job on that coastal vs inland discrepancy and it fits nicely with what I’ve done on the move of thermometers out of the mountains (and toward coasts). I’d thought of doing a ‘water moderated’ vs inland analysis and let it go (as the data structure didn’t make it easy to do and there there easier places to look). Now I wish I’d had the discipline to do that extra work. It’s an interesting result.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/15/shifting-sun-earth-moon-harmonies-beats-biases/
You are the only person that I know that might have a clue what this is all about?
Lets have a minute of silence, to remember 1695, when the Ice surrounded Iceland for the whole year. Things were so much much better then, Ice is so beautiful. We should all live inside the Freezer in the house, it’s better for our bodies and crops grow better in Ice. http://books.google.com.au/books?id=LwvkmXt5fQUC&pg=PA113&lpg=PA113&dq=iceland+surrounded+by+ice+little+ice+age&source=bl&ots=K3XMjJGTtF&sig=i7VyfHE9OMh_4570OiPA2wdRpNA&hl=en&ei=GPybToqIHOWWiQemqJCsAg&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=2&ved=0CCkQ6AEwAQ#v=onepage&q=iceland%20surrounded%20by%20ice%20little%20ice%20age&f=false .
And during the Ice Age, the Climate Changed all the time while CO2 stayed the same
http://books.google.com.au/books?id=LwvkmXt5fQUC&pg=PA113&lpg=PA113&dq=iceland+surrounded+by+ice+little+ice+age&source=bl&ots=K3XMjJGTtF&sig=i7VyfHE9OMh_4570OiPA2wdRpNA&hl=en&ei=GPybToqIHOWWiQemqJCsAg&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=2&ved=0CCkQ6AEwAQ#v=onepage&q=warm%20weather&f=false
And when they were bored they burnt witches to stop the ice from coming forward
http://books.google.com.au/books?id=LwvkmXt5fQUC&lpg=PA113&ots=K3XMjJGTtF&dq=iceland+surrounded+by+ice+little+ice+age&pg=PA91#v=onepage&q=witches&f=false
“Federal” “Private” Reserve LOL, they can’t make up their mind
@Larry Geiger:
I find it rather interesting…. but to your point: Yeah, I think I ‘get it’.
The first chart is Atmospheric Angular Momentum, vs Length of Day vs Neutron Flux. But done as “morlet wavelet power”. That is, given a varying function where is the power in it located. See:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morlet_wavelet
for an over view. It’s just a way to find ‘where is the bulk of the action’ in something that’s a bit chaotic.
So that chart shows that the Air is moving in sync with the Length of Day (i.e. changes in the earth rotation rate) that are in sync with solar changes (via the proxy of cosmic rays).
We’ve talked about some of the LOD changes vs solar changes correlation before, and looked at a variety of potential causes (including some rather brain bruising looks at the potential for Spin Orbital Coupling at a macro level between planets and sun). What this chart shows is a very clean correlation of the powers and motions. Hard to make that go away… or ignore it.
In short, it argues that “The Sun Rules, CO2 Drools…”
The Chandler Wobble chart will need a bit more thinking. For now, it looks like it is at least showing a spike in position right on top of the 1930’s Dust Bowl and drought / heat spike. I think the rest of it is saying “solar / lunar positions influenced or at least correlated with it”. More of of a ‘sun and moon rule the earth’ evidence.
UPDATE: Looking at it a bit more, the 179.3 year yellow lunisolar cycle CosLS line is, I think, the “punch line”. It shows a nice long period cycle that directly overlays the cold 1800s into the warmer present, and is now ‘rolling over’ into a new drop. There is a minor dip in x and y period rate of change right on top of the ‘cold 70s’ and I’d take that whole mix to mean that the CosLS dominates longer term, but a change of ‘rate of change of period’ can have a ‘blip’ introduction. The conclusion from this would be that with CosLS headed down for many decades, we’re headed into significant cold (and any ‘blip’ on top of that would be a ‘year without a summer’ in the north…) That x’ power and y’ power are now plunging in a downtrending CosLS is “bad news”. IFF I’ve interpreted this correctly. Mechanism? The Chandler Wobble changes how much the earth is tilted toward the sun and can easily have an impact on arctic temperatures and AO state (that drives Russia and Canada into frozen or warms them from time to time) and via them, can make the rest of us quite cold too. Oh, AO is the Arctic Oscillation: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml In essence, the position of the north pole matters and the Chandler Wobble changes it. The Chandler Wobble has a strong connection to the lunisolar position cycle. Sun and Moon rule, CO2 drools, when it comes to weather and climate impacts (accepting for the moment the broken definition of climate as ’30 year average of weather’).
The ‘colored carpet’ graph is showing SOI Southern Oscillation Index of ocean state vs time.
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/soi.html
With what looks like a clear oscillation in state in sync with the ‘cold’ period in the 1960s-1970s and the warm period recently. It looks to me like there might be a decade or two lag between the state change and impacts on average land temps, but that would take a bit more ‘think time’ to evaluate. What’s clear is an ocean oscillation driving in sync with temperature cycles (and, via the prior graph of AMO, in sync with the lunar solar positions…)
The final graph shows a near identity between ocean temps (all of them, in two sets) and the “solar cycle acceleration”. Done as Morlets, it’s comparing the power in the ocean changes to the power in the solar cycle changes and finding that “they all go together when they go”.
The net conclusion is that you must now show how CO2, as driver of climate, is able to run backwards into controlling the power and position of the sun and the moon… Or accept that the sun and moon changes are driving climate changes.
Very nicely done, IMHO, but it does need some explanatory verbiage around it.
A few new, helpful rules brought to you by your tax dollars at work.
(from a paltry 18,000 to a more realistic 140,000)
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904103404576560742746021106.html
an example: when turtles attack!
http://graphicsweb.wsj.com/documents/MEDICALCODES0911/#term=Turtle
a tease:
W5921XA Bitten by turtle, initial encounter
W5921XD Bitten by turtle, subsequent encounter
W5921XS Bitten by turtle, sequela
W5922XA Struck by turtle, initial encounter
W5922XD Struck by turtle, subsequent encounter
W5922XS Struck by turtle, sequela
W5929XA Other contact with turtle, initial encounter
W5929XD Other contact with turtle, subsequent encounter
W5929XS Other contact with turtle, sequela
So how about some preventative measures – like how to escape from a berserk turtle. And I need some more detail on the ‘struck by turtle’ topic – in particular the ‘subsequent encounter’ entry. I can better understand the Bitten entry – an East Texas river bottom snappin turtle is rattlesnake fast on the bite, but that ‘subsequent encounter’ thing is suspect – my own grandmother told me many years ago that they would hold on till it thundered. Maybe ‘subsequent/sequela’ deal with multiple turtles or the first bite results in amputation.
More funding is clearly required.
/sarc off – finally :)
We need to go back to the safe days of CO2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Frost_of_1709 Chickens’ combs froze solid and fell off.
Major bodies of water like lakes, rivers and the Baltic sea froze solid or froze over.
Soil froze to a depth of a metre.
Livestock died frozen in barns.
Trees exploded from the extreme cold.
Sailors aboard English naval vessels out at sea died from the cold.
Fish froze in rivers, game died in the fields, and small birds died by the millions.
Herbs and exotic fruit trees died, as did hardy oak and ash trees.
The wheat crop failed.
People went to bed and woke to find their nightcaps frozen to the bedstead.
Bread froze so hard it took an axe to cut it.
When famine arrived, the French government forced its gentry to pay for soup kitchens for fear of a general peasant revolt.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Famine_%281740%E2%80%931741%29 Unlike the famine of the 1840s, which was caused in part by a fungal infection in the potato crop and, separately, extreme government regulations, that of 1740–41 was due to extremely cold and then rainy weather in successive years, resulting in a series of poor harvests. Hunger compounded a range of fatal diseases. The cold and its effects extended across Europe, and it is now seen to be the last serious cold period at the end of the Little Ice Age of about 1400–1800. .
@Scarlet:
I’ve noticed an interesting pattern of repeating dates in the Irish Famine history. If it repeats, we’re ‘due’ for one soon. You might want to “dig here” and see if you can see the same pattern…
Unfortunately, it looks like Europe gets the worst of the swings. Southern US, not so much. Texas gets water cycles that can be horrid drouths… New England freezes and gets loads of snow. California has wet / dry cycling but otherwise is OK. (but a few lakes can become meadows for hundreds of years…) and the same cycle hits Latin America where civilizations tend to fall from changes in water patterns.
We’re on a cyclical roller and folks just don’t want to admit it. My hope is that the rate of change is measured in decades so we can adjust. History says we can’t. Unfortunately “Warmer IS Better” and we’re just leaving warm behind us.
So watch for early snows and persistent frosts as “spring” comes late. That’s the signature for moving more equatorial…
Gets pretty exciting when it’s $1 bbl oil LOL
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2030186/Colonel-Gaddafi-kept-photos-darling-Condoleezza-Rice-lair.html
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/67d1d02a-5314-11e0-86e6-00144feab49a.html#axzz1bIdXWLwO
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/rices-historic-trip-to-libya-signals-improved-relations-920951.html Wasn’t a dictator
And Total’s reserves just exploded
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204010604576595082817442542.html
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7e/Gas_pipelines_across_Mediterranee_and_Sahara_map-en.svg
France didn’t have the pipeline
Shallow quakes Berkley San Fran Bay Area
http://earthquake-report.com/2011/10/20/moderate-shallow-earthquake-2-km-from-berkeley-san-fransisco-bay-area/
Half a dozen small quakes. Rattled a few tea cups in Berkley hills. COOL! pg
Big quake hits Turkey
http://earthquake-report.com/2011/10/23/very-strong-dangerous-earthquake-in-eastern-turkey/
Hope you have time to evaluate the economy/tax plans of candidates from the perspective of the job-seeker and the invester. Small request, I know. Cheers.
@R. de Haan
Big quake hits Turkey
7.2 quake hits eastern Turkey 1000 may be dead. Very NOT cool. A real disaster and this is the start of winter. I remember when our family lost everything in a fire at the start of winter, very bleak winter and a few very good memories of family togetherness. Sometimes the best results from the worst. pg
Massive Atlantic storm brewing.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-rb.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/neatl/flash-rb.html
First link is good now, second like will get better as the storm moves to the West. Readers in the UK might want to keep an eye out.
The Germans are calling for this storm to peter out but a powerful one behind it to strike the UK around Nov 3/4 with cold weather behind it:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html
@Pyromancer76:
I’ll take a look for a bit more depth.
My ‘off the cuff’ assessment is that any of them are better than the present administration.
They all, generally, suffer from one constant defect: They are trying to continue to fund the monster.
Cain’s 9-9-9 adds up to 27% (about the present Fed “take” give or take a few) while Perry? want’s to play ‘pick your tax plan’ but keep funding close to present levels. Yeah, some window dressing talk of cuts, but …
We’ve already seen that you get about 18% to the feds, whatever tax rate you pick. Changing the mix of which tax can’t move that much. Expenditures must come down for things to balance OR you have to play the Greek Game…
Also none of it addresses the Demographic Bomb. The “Boomers” are going to get old and retire. Period. Not enough tax payers to support all the promises made, no matter what tax games you play.
So I’ve generally put it all in the basket of “say what you need to get elected” (though some of it may actually be believed by the candidates…)
The “bottom line” is that the Democrats want to expand the welfare state right at a time when it is least able to support the promises already made. The Republicans are trying to meet those contracts while not bankrupting the economy. Nobody is admitting that it’s just not going to work in any case (with the possible exception of Ron Paul who has no chance of getting elected). Just no way we can do anything much other than renig on those contracts and promises. Not enough workers to support all the takers.
Given that, I’m not sure there’s a whole lot of benefit in an ‘in depth analysis’ of tax plans that can not accomplish much in any case… But I’ll look at it and see if there’s something there more than I’m seeing at first blush.
BTW, I’m not fond of adding a sales tax component to the Federal Tool Kit… I’d be happier with a 9-9-0 tax plan headed to a 5-5-0 tax…
It would be better to just repeal the 16th amendment and hand things back to the states.
Hudson volcano Southern Chile status RED, nearby residents being evacuated, small ash plume already being observed:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/americas/chile-orders-evacuation-of-residents-near-rumbling-hudson-volcano/2011/10/26/gIQAYSUrJM_story.html
E.M FYI
http://joannenova.com.au/2011/10/the-atlantic-the-finance-industry-has-effectively-captured-our-government/
@Another Ian:
Looks about right to me. Thanks for the pointer! I’d only add that there is an increase in attempts to spread or “socialize” the losses from national governments to larger collectives. This will continue until all options are tapped out or refuse to be bled. Then, and only then, will the IMF and / or national austerity be brought in.
I’d also add that the Demographic Bomb is going to make this time very bad as we have far more old folks per worker with far more promises per old folk than ever before in history.
So everyone is trying to get money out of the other guy’s pocket / purse. But the only ones with cash in them are the Chinese and Saudis and they are not sharing… The only bad thing, really, is that the crash is so slow it will take a decade to see the end of the movie…
Just a little humor here: Imagine being a lip reader and watching political ads. Now, imagine being a very BAD lip reader and watching political ads.
@Jason Calley:
That is a hoot and a half!
Particularly poignant for me as I sometimes DO lipread to fill in some gaps and from time to time I’ll get ‘way off’ flags and have to replay the visuals to ‘try again’…. Did he really say “He gets the Pink Elephant”? Or was that “Hey, get the big yellow plate”? At any rate, nicely done.
Saw a bumper sticker the other day that I really liked: “Will they still call me racist when I vote for Herman Cain?”
Just wondering if they will continue to call the Tea Party folks racist as they endorse him too ….
More maps from Zerohedge…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/europe-according
E.M.
Best bumper sticker I’ve seen was on a pickup in Fort Collins
“If Dolly Parton was in farming she’d be flat busted too”
Oh Dear…. Between the bumper sticker and those EuroSnide maps I’m having trouble getting morning coffee swallowed ;-)
Crystal Balls and Tealeaves in your back yard
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3022&from=rss_home
@Chuckles:
Golly, they think more heat will lead to less snow. Guess they haven’t got the Climate Chaos update letter yet. All the added snow back east is now attributed to warming…. Back to the drawing boards, USGS :-)
Yup, your tax money at work E.M. I loved your offer at WUWT to selflessly Occupy Durban to draw attention to the plight of whatever it was that required Durban to be occupied during COP17? Dependent on some altruistic entity ponying up the necessary for travel subsistence and incidentals.
Tell ya what, that’s right noble of you E.M., I gotta say it is. So much so, that I’m prepared to match your offer.
If the funding is there, I’ll accompany you as your local guide, palm greaser, forager, fixer upper and combat accountant. Can’t say fairer than that.
better get those pledge lines rolling.
:)
@Chuckles:
What if 3 people did it? What if 3 people a day, marched in, sang a bar of “Occupy Durban” and marched out? Why, they’d call it a movement ;-)
(Apologies to Arlo… )
So what say we get a movement going! Someone needs to be the coordinator and put up a web page to take donations (something cool, so I’m not qualified to do it ;-) The Occupy Durban Movement. ODM? TOD? Whatever… (like I said, we need someone with a sense of cool…)
Looks to me like all it takes is about $100/day per person. Peanuts for a well heeled sugar daddy… or government… Is there a government department of picketing junkets funded by other government departments department? Think of all the jobs it would create ;-)
E.M. Yes, as the old saying goes ‘With my brains and your looks, we’re likely to get about 2 blocks down the road.’
:)
The website hosting etc is no problem, the ‘cool’ ‘edgy’ bit definitely unlikely. very out of character as well.
Durban is a very laid back sort of place (has to be, with a sub tropical climate and temps between 23 and 33 C and humidity at 80-90%. They have a disease there caused by the weather conditions called ‘Natal fever’ which exhibits as a desperate desire to find a comfortable lounger chair in a shady spot, and do little except consume tall, ice cold cocktails and drinks.
Still, given the current personal and global financial situations, unless we can find some sucker er distinguished patrons, I don’t think you’ll be learning the culinary delights of the Bunny Chow, or reading the menu at the british Middle east indian Sporting and Dining Club, more’s the pity.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/26/co2-ice-cores-vs-plant-stomata/
Plant Stroma show CO2 was just as high many times before, some in recent times. Also why do we compared CO2 levels in Hawaii with CO2 levels in Ice at a pole in the past?
It appears to me that this page format style looks less professional then the previous one. Maybe the lack of the header picture is the cause? OH well, the content is far more important then the page style. pg
OH! I just noticed, you have enabled the Hovercards. cool! Next you will turn on the Emoticons. 8-) pg
@P.G.:
Well, I liked the look of the old one, but the font was slightly low contrast, so I tried this one. There are a few hundred themes, from the look of it, and I didn’t want to spend forever searching them…
BUT, if someone wants to look at themes and come up with something better, well, let me know what you like and I’ll try it… I went for a 2 column fixed width theme (that had dark type and looked like it kept my stuff intact on the test trial run…) But I’m not married to it; just looking for a darker font… and not breaking working stuff…
http://wrc559.com/2011/11/03/overpopulation-myth/ Overpopulation scam will be coming soon, its a 1970s rerun all over again
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Masquerade_ball
Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth. Oscar Wilde Irish dramatist, novelist, & poet (1854 – 1900
Should politicians dress up in masks to tell the truth? Interesting were these balls in the past set up so the elite could talk to each other in more truthful and open ways ;) Primitive people also dress up and mask up, seems like us humans need some masking sometimes?
E.M.
I’ve already o/t’d one thread so will park this here
”
An Ode to Climate Science
Good, better, BEST
the data cannot rest,
such torture endured
by now we’ re inured
to trends suspicious,
and stats injudicious
much variance diverging
from reality emerging
the paleodata surging
past is present haunting
uncertainties are daunting
hypotheses astounding
are ever so resounding,
untestable of course
then that’s the source
of conclusions erratical
from climatologists fanatical,
whose logical defiance
based on over-reliance
on concepts theoretical
and models hypothetical
with assumptions abounding
and parameters surrounding
such splendid renditions
of initial conditions
and boundary limits
with feedback exhibits
such a virtual world
with scenarios unfurled
sensitivity to measure
and results to treasure
with projections aplenty
and scenarios many
predictions never admitted
now are not permitted
in post-modern science
With a hint of reliance
On well worn consensus
And groupthink relentless
How utterly senseless
Where pal review reigns
And sensitivity gains
Are so wide ranging
With credibility straining
Cherry-picking for tenure
No-one to censure
hypotheses not tested
truth cannot be wrested
from the likes of IPCC
ARGO data from the sea
are troublesome it seems
as to what it means?
satellites not tree rings
will give us soundings
of clouds and aerosols
Well bless our souls!
the feedback’s critical
for hacks so political
and ever hypocritical
with pretexts ever flimsy
to tax us at their whimsy
Bristle-cone pines
Are stretching the lines
Across eons of time
In California at least
Where trees can feast
On good old CO2
And yet we know too
That the graph’s askew
Mann-made warming
now there’s a warning
the blade’s uplifted
with data sifted,
by PCA short centring
All ready for entering
A journal so lenient
extremely convenient
the puck is ready
the ice is steady
but the decline ‘s hidden
thus the message given
until came the mire
Now it’s McIntyre
With McKitrick in tow
That’s ruined the show!
Oh how reality bites
When the method invites
Such critics revealing
secrets unappealing
Well now that it’s done
We’ve all had our fun
Oh why, oh why
they all cry
cannot he resist
he truly must desist
from silly verse
so terse and worse
sentiments ill-considered
time and efforts frittered
On and on it goes
Heaven only knows
yet more appended
til he’ s suspended
fear not this is ended.
Nov 4, 2011 at 12:41 AM | Patrick ”
From http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2011/11/3/blackening-the-name-of-the-bbc.html?currentPage=2#comments
And aplopgies for the T2 space used
The font contrast is quite good. Much easier for these old eyes. 8-) pg
@Scarlet Pumpernickel (10:39:31) : Overpopulation scare tactics again, courtesy of the liberal media (BBC et al.). However there was a study which demonstrated that the whole world population would be easily accomodated in Texas and survive. These guys would make a big favor to humanity if they could give us a good example and kill themselves to reduce population :-)
The only over population is in bureaucrats and their economic numbing regulations. They consume wealth and prevent its creation and then confiscate greater and greater amounts of wealth to feed themselves and their organizations.
prophecies for this period include “the philosophy of MORE will be discredited and abandoned” One can hope more government is part of this. pg
FWIW, I did a calculation that showed a took about Texas and Oklahoma to fit all the world population on US Suburban Lots and that the land are of the yards was enough to feed them from a decent garden. (French Intensive system).
I then did a more interesting one (but it is hard as the length of a coastline is an indeterminant value…) that basically says you could put the world population in condo’s along the coast of the world and everyone would get an ocean view with no more than a few stories tall. (Something like 6 IIRC, but I went through a couple of scenarios of height vs depth…)
Another one came up with something like 6 patches as densely populated as London (where folks seem to like living…) and the size of the UK (not that big) scattered around the world. That’s one per populated continent… Africa, Europe, N. & S America, Australasia, Asia. A simple inspection of a globe, looking at the UK and Eurasia kind of makes the point.
Don’t remember where I put them… perhaps in the ‘not running out’ comments:
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/05/08/there-is-no-shortage-of-stuff/
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/03/20/there-is-no-energy-shortage/
And, of course, if you have no shortage of stuff and energy you can make all the food you want (even if hydroponically with nuclear lighting…)
So we’re a very long ways from exceeding what can live on the planet.
The wisdom of going to 30 Billion population and the stupidity with which we squander resources and damage the planet with things like wars are, er, ‘orthogonal questions’…
http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/nuclear/24-hours-at-fukushima/0
@ EM.Smith; very true. The only critical resources is enough energy and the knowledge to use it, as well as the freedom to use them. Humans will always create more wealth then they consume, if allowed to. It is the priest class (bureaucracies) that consumes without production and wastes “for the greater glory” pg
E,M.
I thought you ought to have an oar in this, and found the comment at
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/05/ncdc-data-shows-that-the-contiguous-usa-has-not-warmed-in-the-past-decade-summers-are-cooler-winters-are-getting-colder/#more-50527
Ain’t tomatoes, but I think I’ll be cranking this into our cattle plan for the SH winter coming
A 5.6 in Oklahoma?
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Maps/US10/32.42.-100.-90.php
Here’s another illustrated lecture from RSA Animate, this time “The Divided Brain”
I kept thinking of you and how this would relate to the Aspe brain.
http://www.nsf.gov/od/lpa/news/press/00/pr0038.htm Interesting gas releases, is it CO2?
http://users.tpg.com.au/users/tps-seti/spacegd2.html#china1490AD China Meteorite storm ?
@Verity Jones:
FWIW, I really love that guy’s stuff. Someday I’m going to have to just sit down and watch every one of them end to end 8-)
That final line about ‘becoming a society that honors the servant but has forgotten the gift’ is just stellar…
I’ve spent some amount of think time on the issue of the devaluing of the right brain contributions in our modern society. I, too, decided it was the underlayment of much that is wrong in the modern world (though not in as precise a language as in the video… more a ‘right brain intuited picture’ and less of a left brain language painting…)
FWIW, I think that the Aspe tendency comes in a couple of flavors. One of them is, IMHO, a higher degree of cross connection. A stronger coupling of the halves (at least for me it is…) and I just can’t put away the right brain as much as my society would like. Reason and language et al work very well, so the left brain is doing quite nicely, thank you very much: BUT, I can’t stop the right brain from chiming in all the time with sudden insights and understandings and “OHHH! A Thought Toy Shiny Thing!!!’ interruptions.
So what insight did the vid give? That perhaps it’s the job of the prefrontal lobes to suppress all that. To give priority to the machiavellian ‘polite lie’ I see so much around me. For me it is stuck much more in ’empathy’. Very strong empathy. But rarely suppressive of the R & L thoughts…
Which leads to a speculation:
Perhaps the Aspe brain has a less coordinated or ‘in charge’ prefrontal.
For some, it manifests as a lack of the machiavellian social gaming, for some as a lack of empathy (for some as a lack of both?) and the logic / reason and intense connection parts are left free to run ( from the neurotypical perspective, to run ‘amok’…) and discover; but at a cost of that social gaming side… Yet I CAN do the social gaming, I just think it a bit daft… and not worth the bother… (Then again, I’m on the ‘marginal high function’ side of things… and find the social lie a significant workload where for others it seems devoid of effort…)
The corollary of this would be that the strongly neurotypical has a way over suppressed logic, reason, and insight package and a way over developed sense of social gamesmanship… which leads back to that posting about ‘is Aspe the opposite of sociopath?’…
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/10/29/is-being-a-sociopath-the-opposite-of-aspe/
and implies that the answer is “yes”, and with a logical mechanistic explanation of ‘why’ … Gads! Differential prefrontal dominance…
This would, FWIW, tie into another of the ‘highly speculative’ whacky ideas about Autism and Aspergers: There is a wild idea from some folks that the Cro Magnon mind was the socially devious one with all it’s regimented warfare, social dominance, and deception; and the Neanderthals were more ‘naive’ and more strongly ‘in tune with the nature around them’ and very small family groups. That Aspe traits come from the Neander part of our past. This would also provide an explanatory mechanism for that. Neanders with a large corpus callosum and small prefrontals, crossing with Cros with strongly dominant prefrontals and TB (tiny brains ;-) with a poor corpus callosum, but plenty of warlike tendency in a social swarm of sorts… Net result “modern man” with many participants having ‘the best of both’ and some of us more Neander like while others are more suited to Politics and The Mafia ;-)
It all ‘fits’ and makes my right brain happy… but there is too much more to the picture and I can’t get it all shoved over the Corpus to the left brain and typed in linear speech format adequately ;-) Oh Well…
@S.P.:
Yup, there was a ‘1500 or so’ rock fall. I’ve got a link with a decent chronology of the major rock falls probable. It’s a bit worrying. Looks like about every 500 years, but not ‘regular’. Sometimes just a couple of hundred, sometimes nearer 1000 (or there are holes in the record). Sometimes swarms of little ones. Sometimes a few really big ones (so large tsunami records, for example.)
It’s pretty dismal. I’m pondering making a general posting about it, but it IS just a bit on the depressing side. The only good news is that it looks like it’s about 1000 more years to the “whopper” returning as the major swarms look to come every 2500-3000 years and the last one was about 200 AD to 600 AD (or came in two parts with a couple of hundred years in between, a common feature in history, BTW). But that odd ‘syncopated’ 500 ish year pattern could mean that after the 1500 AD medium sized we are about positioned for the ‘other note’… At any rate, I’ve not got the whole pattern satisfactorily integrated yet. Just suffice it to say that sometimes we get hit with massive storms of rock falls, and we’ve not had one in a very long time (so that’s either comforting or very very bad ;-)
About the only thing that is very clear is that 1) It isn’t done by any means. Celestial patterns are VERY long term things… and 2) Recent times have been abnormally low on the rock fall count. Which together mean “some day it’s going to get a whole lot worse by far than anything in recent history.” and we can only HOPE that’s a couple of hundred more years away. But… “Hope is not a strategy. -E.M.Smith”…
So some day we are going to wake up to a heck of a lot of damage and dead folks from space rocks (as were much more populated a planet surface now) and that’s gonna make the news big time… ;-)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox How they “prove” global warming
http://www.hauteliving.com/2011/11/haute-100-update-dicaprio-and-jolie-lead-celebs-to-attend-climate-change-conference/
Hitch a ride?
@E.M.
I was thinking about the ability to focus in and get lost in the fine detail vs the scanning, seeing and ‘taking in’ the big picture. Maybe that both abilities are there, but the ability to control or balance the activity is poor.
BTW I did like your ‘opposite of sociopath’ posting when I originally read it.
Something very interesting in the latest California Nevada EQ plots from USGS
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqscanv/
You see activity going up from Baja along the Elsinore Fault Zone. At about Julian, the line of activity jogs North over to the Coyote Creek/San Jacinto Fault Zone.
It is interesting to note that there is little activity on the Elsinore FZ North of Julian and there is little activity on the Coyote Creek FZ South of Borrego Springs. It is as if you can see the quake activity go up one fault, then migrate across to the other and continue North roughly to Banning where it then seems to jump over to the Southern San Andreas.
it is just interesting that the pattern of quakes coupled with the persistence of this graph allowed this pattern to be seen today. It might still be visible for a couple of days or some of those “yellow” quakes might age out and make it difficult to see.
Click to access tempest-tv.pdf
Interesting article about data over powerlines
Oklahoma and New Madrid? I can tell y’all that anytime we get some of those tiny Kalifornie kind’a things the pucker factor gets to the “Hold yer breath it’s a commin’ soon” stage. Who would’a thunk that Oklahomie was the root of it all? Somebody somewhen must’a known, why else would that have first given it all to the Indians. (American Indians, of course, the others is just “Indies”; they ain’t real Indians regardless of what the Brits call ’em.)
@ E.M. “FWIW, I did a calculation that showed a took about Texas and Oklahoma to fit all the world population on US Suburban Lots and that the land are of the yards was enough to feed them from a decent garden. (French Intensive system). ”
I did something similar years back concerning hydroponics. My son and I were discussing how large an area would it take to supply the US with food, and since I had just read a book on hydroponics, the question morphed to “Discounting grains, but speaking strictly about vegetables — tomatoes, peppers, carrots, lettuce, etc. — how much space would it take to supply the entire US?” Even including roads and rails, paths, plumbing, etc. we estimated about thirty miles square of greenhouses with much of the work automated. Roughly the size of one county in one state to supply the US. Recycled water optional. :)
Of course if you wish to include room for corn, soy, and wheat things get bigger.
FYI – Bob Tisdale has a rather personal piece up today at his blog –
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2011/11/08/looking-for-ideas/
@George:
I’ve also noted the ‘inland’ movement of the trends (though not at that fine scale). I don’t know what it means, but it’s happening. Just look at how the San Andreas activity heads over to the Hayward / Calaveras.
That this sends the energy more nearly under the volcanic zones is, er, ‘interesting’?…
Perhaps it is a tidal thing…
What got my attention was the migration line from one fault to another along a fairly straight line that shows no known fault. That would indicate that there IS a fault there that might not present on the surface or that simply hasn’t been noticed. That area is pretty much unpopulated desert and it is quite likely that it hasn’t been studied. The activity seems to be at roughly 10km average depth.
The October 2011 data are in the NCDC Database and the story is that October 2011 was cooler than October 2010 in the continental US. Also, a plot of the most recent 12-month period (last November until October just past) shows the most recent period to be cooler than the previous (November 2009 to October 2010). Since 1998 only three such periods have been cooler than the last one and the downtrend continues. The current trend for that 12-month period since 1998 is -0.82F/decade. So the rate of fast cooling in the continental US continues unabated.
EM, since you’re from Florida: In a textbook about digital signal processing and correlational measurement, I found a short table showing the amount of rain in *January* and the amount of wheat harvested in *August*, in Florida, covering 20 years. Pearson’s correlation coefficient was 0.987 … I find this difficult to explain. Do they plant wheat in January there?
@Hugo M:
There’s winter wheat and spring wheat. Then, Florida has a winter growing season… Add in that wheat kind of likes the cold, and, yes, Florida is more a ‘grow in winter’ place. From 2009:
http://southwestfarmpress.com/grains/wheat-growers-have-faced-problems
So you can see it’s sort of ‘cold limited’… While I don’t know, I’d guess that they grow spring wheat in winter… (not a lot of snow to cover winter wheat…)
Well, at least know we know that as the Grand Minimum unfolds and things get colder we can look forward to more Florida Wheat ads ;-)
Climategate 2, a FOIA post at Climate Audit and The Air Vent, hit this morning.
In the midst of Thanksgiving preparation madness — even if one is well organized — I found this interesting bit about “life” and thought of your “lunar resonance” and “schronized to other climate drives” ideas. Might not work, but, “what if?” The bit is from Nigel Calder’s blog http://calderup.wordpress.com/ that I follow for updates to Svensmark’s theory. He writes:
“I was impressed at the Royal Society last night when the prize for science books 2011, now sponsored by Winton Capital Management, went to Gavin Pretor-Pinney for The Wavewatcher’s Companion (Bloomsbury).”
and…
“It covers waves of every kind you’d think of, and some you wouldn’t….Given the chance to read a passage from his book during the ceremonies, Pretor-Pinney chose the intricate waves of hungry amoebae. They assemble to make a slug-like object and then build a tower from which they send spores to look for happier hunting grounds.”
Now these are purposeful waves of life, but the physics of “synchronisities” (sp) might not be too different.
Hey All! I just wanted to wish everyone a very happy Thanksgiving, and remind us all that we have so very much to be thankful for — with family and friends (yes, even those mysterious Internet friends whom we have never seen face to face) being at the top of the list. I am grateful for all the wonderful and sometimes mind boggling information, humor, feedback, and creative thoughts which E.M. so graciously provides a forum for. Thank you all.
I would suggest that anyone who is able might wish to make some donation to E.M. through the link on the upper right of this page. He deserves it.
Happy Thanksgiving!
@Pyromancer76:
Oh Dear, now another book I want… I accumulate them about about 4 times the rate I can actually buy them… that is about twice the rate I can read what I buy… Doomed, I fear…
Always had a ‘soft spot’ for amoebae until recently. They are in that ‘odd spot’ of being a semi-intelligent single celled critter that’s gotten about as big and smart and mobile as it can be with one cell; so it’s started making a society of cells with ‘fellow travelers’ as needed, but not willing to give up its autonomy and sovereignty for the dependent life of a cell in a multicellular animal where some other cells can decide to ‘sacrifice’ it for the greater good. (I can relate to that…)
But in the last couple of years a more malevolent amoeba has been eating the occasional brain… Normally it lives in the mud of subtropical lakes. Then some swimming kids kick it up, snort a bit into the nose, where it follows the olfactory nerves into the brain and settles down to chow. No effective treatment…
So I’ve become a bit less enamored as they have become less ‘cute’…
Once ran into an interesting science fiction short story where people landed on a planet and eventually met a local ‘man’. He looked a bit, er, different. As though you could almost see individual large cells and surfaces were a bit prone to ‘wobbling’. Cutting a long story short, the somewhat violent humans shot (IIRC) the alien. Who promptly dissolved into a puddle of goo that ‘ran off somewhere’. Seems the dominant life form on the planet was an amoeba like critter that made up most of the “animals and plants” they had seen, but decided to make a ‘human’ to talk to them. When they became violent and killed a few cells, the rest of that particular body ran back to deliver what they had learned to the collective consciousness… Which promptly made some other interesting critters to eat the earthlings…
Amoeba raise some interesting questions about ‘molecular intelligence’…
Then there is that really cool way they can make spores… A fairly large mostly jelly like mobile cell with oodles of organelles can just choose to make hard dry micro-sized spores and hibernate if things get bad. Just crazy. All with one cell and a smallish amount of DNA. The collective action of groups of them can also be ‘quite odd’. as you pointed out.
Slime Molds in particular are a bit creepy (and clearly formed the basis idea for the SF Story):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slime_mold
Gotta love it. Life as a free agent, forming a collective when needed. Some die so that others might live…
Aware of ‘others’. Communal instincts. Able to make a ‘brain’ when they need to solve larger problems…
Their internal structures can be odd too. Sometimes haploid. Sometimes with a full genetic compliment. Sometimes with a huge number of nuclei ‘sharing’ a large mass of common cytoplasm. Able to shift from half a cell as a spore to a large ‘collective’ cell… or act as a complex organism. You could spend your whole life in a study of these things. (Or write semi-paranoid SciFi stories about them replacing a persons brain and ‘going walk about’ in his body to see what this larger world is all about ;-)
I’m just glad that they (generally…) prefer to eat bacteria. Something with that much crafty skill we don’t need as an opponent… but you have to admit that it has worked out a really interesting ‘niche’ in life. The “top predator” of a bacterial world, hunting prey and being very crafty in how it deals with environmental changes. Sometimes being up to “meters in size” and sometimes just one cell (or spore).
I don’t think I’d want to make life too challenging for these guys. They could easily evolve into ‘something more’ under duress and I’m not sure we’d be ready to deal with them…
E,M.
FYI
http://blogs.news.com.au/couriermail/andrewbolt/index.php/couriermail/comments/so_much_spending_so_little_growth/
E.M. This might be of interest if you’ve got time to look at it. Or it might be a fizzer!
”
Mime data
Posted by Jeff Id on November 24, 2011
Reader Buffy Minton has done some cool work to extract file attachments with the emails. This was never done for the original climategate files to my knowledge.”
More and site at http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2011/11/24/mime-data/
A pretty cool, literally, physical process I never heard of. The video is well done, short and amazing.
http://iceagenow.info/2011/11/brinicle-ice-finger-death-antarctic-video/
For anyone who has a desire for close, ongoing examination of volcanic activity in Southern California — plus an extra $750,000.
http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/the-home-at-the-top-of-a-volcano.html
@Jason Calley:
Yeah, you can get anything in California… So.Cal. in particular… If I had a few millions, I’d buy it. Then fly in in my steam powered airplane and ride my steam dirt bike around (powered by ‘natural’ wood fuel that would also need to be flown in… to ‘save the planet’, of course…)
@David:
Way cool video. It makes physical sense once you think of it, but it’s still unexpected in a startling and beautifully graceful way … and with the horrific end makes it “L.A. Campy Monster Flick” in a strange way too….
“It Came From Out Of The Glacier!”…
E.M.
“It Came From Out Of The Glacier!”…?
This didn’t!
Check out the cartoon at
http://andysrant.typepad.com/.a/6a01538f1adeb1970b015392ef01cc970b-pi
re the Australian carbon tax
And, for more,
http://joannenova.com.au/2011/11/australia-picks-last-possible-moment-to-leap-onto-burning-ship/
@Another Ian:
That’s a great link at Joannenova! And this one is nice, too:
http://joannenova.com.au/2011/11/ipcc-scientists-test-the-exit-doors/
Like the cartoon…
I’ve been pondering an Australia post, now that Australia has decided to join the list of 3rd World Taxers by putting a giant tax on mining… Do they think it’s not possible to put a large mining truck and shovel on a ship and send them to Africa or Indonesia instead? If I’ve got a hole in the ground with ore in it, as do the major miners, in each of Australia, South America, and Africa; and one adds a 30% Tax on all that I do, how likely am I to ramp UP production in the other places and ramp it down in the one with the Tax?
It is, in fact, an essential outcome of the linear programming models that are used to determine where, when, and how much to produce. The high cost place is only brought on line when global prices are so high as to cover the excess costs AND the expected ROI. So as we enter a global slowdown, IFF I need to back off on my Indonesian Copper mine vs my Australian, which do I tell The Lads: “No work today, market slowing down”?
Even if I only have the Australian mine, what happens when I’m bidding against the guy with the Indonesian mine and my “break even” point is now 30% higher than his in a sloppy market? He underbids me, and I’m out telling The Lads “No work today” anyway…
I don’t know why Australia has had such a Latin style “if it moves tax it and give me the dole cheque” mentality, but it keeps showing up as a ‘theme’ there. Ah, well, better for the US Coal mining stocks and South American metals miners…
Looks like moose are adapting quite well to Global Warming.
http://www.stripersonline.com/t/826143/moose-hunt
@Jason Calley:
Just Brilliant!
Now I want to borrow a friends truck and find some Wild Boar heads… (we have a problem with feral pigs near here…)
Here is a good post by Dr. Roger Pielke Jr.
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2011/11/new-us-hurricane-record.html
I think I’m going to go long on tar and feather futures for it seems they will be in great demand.
Re E.M.Smith (21:10:43) :
@Another Ian:
Don’t ask me why things that seem obvious in Ranch Economics 101 get lost in the fog of higher qualifications!
And I’m going to borrow your reply for some friends in economics. Thanks
Hey look here is a chance for two books of fiction to come true at once!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2066624/Anthrax-isnt-scary-compared-Man-flu-virus-potential-wipe-millions-created-warns-frightened-scientist.html
So we can fulfill both Steven King’s “The Stand” and John Ringo’s “The Last Centurion” all at the same time. If you haven’t read “The Last Centurion” I highly recommend it:
http://baencd.thefifthimperium.com/18-EyeoftheStormCD/EyeoftheStormCD/The%20Last%20Centurion/index.htm
The first round of voting in Egypt’s parliamentary elections have concluded and it proves what I said about the uprising back when it occurred:
The choice was to help keep Mubarak in power or watch the Muslim Brotherhood take over.
From the NYT:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/01/world/middleeast/voting-in-egypt-shows-mandate-for-islamists.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all
@Boballab:
Yeah, that’s gonna leave a mark ;-)
Was there every any real doubt that Muslims would vote for Muslim Law?
After generations of being told the Koran is straight from God?
That is the fallacy of our Dear Leaders thinking that “Democracy” will lead to westernism. It doesn’t. It leads to ‘tyranny of the masses’ and when the masses are indoctrinated Muslims, it leads to Sharia.
But it will be fun to watch the “Western Democracies” learn that there are other kinds of Democracy and that democracy is not a very good system… Just like the ancient Greeks said…
Reposting something here I just posted to Anthony’s “tips” page as I believe it is HUGELY important:
A really important (in my opinion) post over at No Consensus
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2011/12/02/i-cant-hear-you/
Nothing that hasn’t been said before but in this one Jeff collects all of his own previous research into this problem and links it into the posting and gives an example of an email where Bo Christiansen at DMI notices that the maths greatly
This basically shatters the underpinning of the entire AGW and IPCC thesis. Not only isn’t it warming now, but their maths are wrong and the notion of a stable climate in the past is an illusion. This should get attention from everyone.
Nice line of little bitty quakes up the Coyote Creek fault zone and Southern Elsinore. I have also noticed about 3 or 4 little “snap crackle pop” quakes in the quiet zone from Cajon Pass to Tejon Pass.
@George:
I’ll take a look at the “Variability of trends” posting “now”, but I’ve already reached the conclusion that there is nothing knowable about heating / cooling trends from the data we have… so I’m expecting more ‘confirmation from another source’ than ‘blinding revelation’… Per Coyote Creek… please say it isn’t so!!! I’m rather near Coyote California… Please let it be some SO.Cal. Coyote…
Well, this isn’t so much about whether or not there is anything knowable in the data as it is showing that even if there WAS, RegM wouldn’t be able to show it! It is impossible for that method to spot a slowly varying signal in a noisy data set where the noise variation exceeds the signal amplitude.
What one ends up with is the noisier the data the flatter the handle of the hockey stick. So when Mann et. al. use very noisy proxies, they get a disappearance of the MWP and LIA, which is exactly what they really wanted to do. One of the key and I mean fundamentally key underpinnings of AGW alarmism is that climate was stable until recently. What RegM does is to exaggerate stability when fed noisy data.
@George:
Ah, I see your point now. Yes, much more significant.
So now we have not only McIntyre’s revelation (since duplicated by The Cause as shown in the emails) that the “blade” of the hockey stick appears even when fed completely randomly generated series, we can’t put that blade into context because the “handle” portion is artificially flattened. So we can’t say that the warming at the current time is faster or current temperatures higher than in the last 1000 years. At least not by using Mann’s approach, we can’t.
Investing in “precious” metal !!!!
http://news.yahoo.com/laws-change-penny-hoarders-could-cash-thousands-dollars-211547264.html
E.M. FYI
http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/17701#comments
He’s also got a comment in Jeff Id’s “Context post”
@Matthew W:
I really hope they don’t melt down all those old pennies… It would be a lot of lost history.
Better would be to just declare the penny was now worth 1/20 th of a dollar and let them go back into circulation as ‘copper nickles’…
@Another Ian:
Interesting link. I’ve avoided diving into the ClimateGate2 emails (figuring a hoard of folks are likely already doing it) so it was interesting to see how much new stuff they are turning up.
Just to add on other thing to the tree ring problem:
I’ve mentioned this before, but it bears repeating ;-)
The soil nitrogen levels in pine forests depend on bear shit and salmon. The bear eat the fish, then poop on the trees. SOO…. Any change in tree rings must ALSO be adjusted for changes of bear populations and salmon runs. Two things that have dramatically changes in the last 100 years…
Or put another way, the hockey stick is just full of bear poo… Perhaps the “warming” was just an artifact of making bears more ‘protected’ since the “kill them all” 1800s …
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-16056192 Interesting volcano article
http://www.federalnewsradio.com/?nid=247&sid=2658996 Anyone want to keep using twitter LOL
@S.P.:
Never tweeted, never will. So maybe now some other folks will start to realize why…
Per the volcanoes: Nice pictures of the process.
Odd that they didn’t mention the induction of water in the fractured rocks leading to lower melt point magma (and lube for the process…)
Also have to wonder how many of the “Sea Level Rise sinking islands” are on the side being subducted ;-)
@ E.M. Over at WUWT, a Chinese study of tree rings from Tibet says: “There were significant cycles of 1324 a, 800 a, 199 a, 110 a and 2–3 a in the 2485-year temperature series. The 1324 a, 800 a, 199 a and 110 a cycles are associated with solar activity.”
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/12/07/in-china-there-are-no-hockey-sticks/
Thought with your interest in Bond Events that would be worth a look.
Deep 6.7 Mag quake Guerrero Mexico today:
DATE and TIME (UTC) LAT-ITUDE LONG-ITUDE MAG-NITUDE DEPTH km REGION
11-DEC-2011 01:47:26 18.04 -99.80 6.7 64.9 GUERRERO, MEXICO
@Jason Calley:
Yeah, saw that. Good stuff but some of the cycles seem a tiny bit off from what other folks found. Probably in the error bars.
@R. de Haan:
It’s been quite on the quake front lately. Wonder if a new cycle is starting… looks like a full moon tonight ;-)
And now…
… for something completely different.
Modern-day mainstream cosmology (that branch of physics trying to understand why our universe is the way it is) holds that 80% of the total mass present in the universe is so-called ‘dark matter’. It is a mysterious substance, that neither emits nor scatters light. The only way it is observable is through the gravitational effects this mysterious matter has on the universe around us.
And it is completely theoretical.
Dark matter was proposed as a solution to make the Einstein models of the universe fit the observations we have on the real one. Introducing dark matter into the models has been very successful in explaining a number of phenomena we observe in our universe: Gravitational lensing (a distortion of our view of the universe by gravity acting on light as it crosses space from its source to our receivers), the non-uniform distribution of the radiation left over from the Big Bang (the so-called background radiation) and the strange way in which spiral galaxies rotate.
But there are studies that shine a worrying light on the actual existence of dark matter. For instance, dark matter and black holes do not interact. And that is a bit weird, if you consider that the defining characteristic of both is gravity. This seems to create a bit of paradox.
This seeming paradox hinges on the assumption in main-stream cosmology that clusters of galaxies are evenly distributed throughout the universe. That means that objects like galaxies are affected equally on all sides by gravitational pull of far-away matter. In other words: Gravitational effects form far away matter cancel each other out. However, this may not be the case. In fact, it has been suggested that the way galaxies and clusters of galaxies are organized around the universe is fractal, not uniform.
Running with the idea of a fractal universe, mathematician Andrea Carati modelled the way spiral galaxies rotate. In his study he assumes a non-uniform, fractal distribution of galaxies. This results in non-uniform gravitational effects. In fact, on large scale objects (galaxies and larger) he finds that far-away clusters of galaxies exert a significant ‘tidal’ effect. With a little more math, Carati came up with predictions of how a spiral galaxy would rotate under such conditions. His results (pdf) were spectacular.
Read the entire article and download the PDF here:
http://kleinverzet.blogspot.com/2011/12/and-now.html
@ R. de Haan Wow! Nice find with the fractal universe theory. Yes, that makes sense; a universe that is “lumpy” on all scales does indeed lead to tidal forces that would not be present in a smooth universe. That is truly elegant!
Tsar Putin “The Almighty” to be challanged by Prinz Prokhorov – I don’t think the poor guy stands a chance of living through to the election. Accidents happen too often to be a coincidence in Russia. But then they always did as I recall. Nope, it’s going to take a few million AK-47’s to beat Putin at his own game (or a few Good Generals).
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-12/russian-billionaire-prokhorov-to-challenge-putin-in-presidential-election.html
“The Womb Of Nations: How West Eurasians Came To Be”
http://dienekes.blogspot.com/2011/12/womb-of-nations-how-west-eurasians-came.html
Interesting. And here I thought we wintered over during the last Galcial on the shores of the Caspian Sea. Dang nab it!
Granted this is not something everybody needs for Christmas but if you really need a drink of water and nothing is gonna come out of the faucet for a while this can be a nice to have. :) 100 gal. water supply.
http://www.cheaperthandirt.com/ItemDetail.aspx?sku=CAMP-205&utm_source=Weekly%2BEmail&utm_medium=Email&utm_term=TwelveDays&utm_campaign=11-12-5TwelveDays&utm_source=EmailDirect.com&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=TwelveDays8+-+12-12+Campaign
this is a crazy ling link so if it does not work just go to cheaperthandirt.com and search for item Camp-205
@P.G.: Yes, we miss the electric volcano (Chaiten)
Fools!:
FoxNews Fox News
Scientists are buzzing about an announcement regarding the ‘God particle’ expected tomorrow morning fxn.ws/u3Hevt
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/12/12/has-god-particle-been-found-major-announcement-expected-tuesday/
E.M FYI
http://joannenova.com.au/2011/12/enron-called-kyoto-a-victory-for-us-in-1997/
@Another Ian:
That letter is a GREAT example of how businesses buy governments…
E.M.
Interesting rant from an old and avowedly otherwise-green geologist on carbon alarmism.
http://iainhall.wordpress.com/2011/12/07/jo-chandler-an-open-letter-from-peter-ravenscroft-about-her-book-feeling-the-heat/#comments
His prose style leaves a little to be desired, but he isn’t an english major anyway.
He makes some comments about subterranean heat and AQUA satellite CO2 readings, that may be found of interest to you ?
Rgds
M7.3 North of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea
@George: WOW! On it!
E.M.
T2 might be getting to need T3 IMO
FYI
http://blogs.abc.net.au/queensland/2011/12/how-to-tell-if-you-lean-to-the-left-or-if-you-are-a-conservative.html?site=brisbane&program=612_evenings
Interesting article from the National Association of Scholars re: climategate
http://www.nas.org/polArticles.cfm?doctype_code=Article&doc_id=2319
@George:
Well, that article is a real “WOW” and a half!
Whoever leaked those emails has done a giant service to humanity. I hope someday they get recognition.
@George
@EMSmith
The Department of Energy is in on the fraud? No wonder Pen State is willing to spend any amount to cover up the scam, they are all in on IT.
When the wheels come off of this sucker and it sinks into the minds of regular people it will take generations for main stream science to regain their trust.
OH! you are a “scientist”, why don’t you get a real job? ;-)
Glad I decided to become a farmer. pg
Oil field off Falklands is larger than thought. Argentina’s pissed.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/money/3996957/Falklands-oil-strike-to-infuriate-Argentina.html
E.M. Story breaking at Jeff Id’s
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2011/12/14/crackdown-shooting-in-the-dark/
ATTENTION Tallbloke’s home raided by the constabulary under direction of the US Dept. of Justice. see his blog site. pg
This is huge. I would speculate that they are looking to see if he might have had the password for that file or they are looking to see if they can glean details of “foia”.
Now the interesting thing is, why is the government, actually two governments, pulling out all the stops to locate THESE particular email leaks. These leaks have done nothing but good. They have exposed fraud. This action speaks very loudly. It says that our government will stop at nothing to stamp out those who would expose the fraud of CAGW.
There are hundreds of billions of dollars to be made from CAGW and they aren’t going to let someone kill that goose.
@ George; one of the emails that I read indicates that the US dept.of energy is a party to the AGW fraud. I have been trying to re locate that particular email. I can’t remember just where it was. Must be old timer’s disease. ;-( pg
Damn George it was the link you pointed to above.
Jones:
[FOI, temperature data]
“Any work we have done in the past is done on the back of the research grants we get – and has to be well hidden. I’ve discussed this with the main funder (US Dept of Energy) in the past and they are happy about not releasing the original station data”
Man ! I must be getting senile.
I hope that “the Bloke” is not their target. pg
Well, this is going to be huge.
Persecution of “average Joe” bloggers by The Empire is just not going to sit well with the world at large. Especially as the news flow is all about hos the guys writing the email were in fact the law breakers…
If folks want me to, I’ll open a posting on this, though I suspect there will be LOTS of pages opened all over the place about it.
Best of luck to Tallbloke…
Sidebar: I almost wish they would have raided me. It would have been great fun watching them try to figure out which of my large collection of junk was of any value. I’ve got well over 2 dozen computers (don’t worry, most are old laptops so not much space to store) with a lifetime of packratting trash on them. I never purge old boxes, just turn them off and they become “deep archives”…
“Hey Joe, how do you make a SCSI Drive go on an Apple II ?”
“Donno, Bob, but I’ve got a Hitachi with 8 MB of memory and some kind of Linux on it that won’t open a graphic interface… and what’s this PowerBook Duo 280 thing? ”
“Well, I’ve got something that says 386 on the outside, but has an AMD chip on the inside, and won’t boot until I figure out which of the 4 disks in it has a boot block and how to set the jumpers”….
Just about everything of value lives on remote sites anyway. I got tired of dealing with personal disk space some time ago. (Yeah, I still have loads of it, but mostly full of things like the canonical collection of earthquake maps, the canonical collection of GHCN downloads, the canonical collection of Linux releases… ) Just thinking of how much forensics time it would waste for them to try and figure out what was what makes me feel all warm ;-)
But it does speak to a certain level of government complicity and desperation…
Maybe I’ll depot a laptop and a StarBucks gift card at a friends house, just in case ;-)
Pingback: Tallbloke Raid Open Talk Page « Musings from the Chiefio
Looks to me that “Mikey ” has a new toy to play with. ;-)
And he may need some “boxes” to put his new toy in. pg
Wow. Looks like Iran jammed the drone’s communications causing it to flip to “autopilot” where it is programmed to return to its “home” location, then they fed it bogus GPS information so the drone came down to a landing in Iran believing it was back at its base in Afghanistan.
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/1215/Exclusive-Iran-hijacked-US-drone-says-Iranian-engineer
I love this article:
“Economics Reporter from New York Times Has Accidental Encounter with Reality, Learns Nothing”
http://danieljmitchell.wordpress.com/2011/12/15/economics-reporter-from-new-york-times-has-accidental-encounter-with-reality-learns-nothing/
@George:
If Iran did do that, they most likely have some Chinese guys ‘in house’ on loan…
“Accidental Encounter With Realty” has me literally laughing out loud. I’m going to steal that one for my own larder… ;-)
Well, I may have played the China Card too soon. Looks like ‘we’ told them:
From that CS Monitor article…
You know, I’d always just assumed that if you were spending a few thousand millions on a system you would have a private encrypted channel for military use. I’d always just assumed they had an authentication key in the data channel for military use.
Among the first things I thought of was “You can swamp and feed false signals” followed almost instantly by “So encrypt and authenticate”. That is available as a configuration option in low priced routers for commercial use, so not exactly a ‘great leap’… Anyone who sets up a VPN tunnel from their laptop is doing it.
So now it looks like these rubes are going to spend $47 Million to put a VPN tunnel equivalent inside the GPS signal and an authentication / login…
How about just using some COTS stuff in the mean time? Oh, and put a trivial inertial guidance system in them while you are at it. Can be very small and very cheap. Just use it as a ‘sanity check’ and if your location / orientation changes by ‘too much too fast’ in unphysical ways, swap over… Or at least “Phone Home” on the hidden encrypted satellite link…
Sometimes I think I ought to have been a weapons designer…
“Sometimes I think I ought to have been a weapons designer”
Me too. I have some doozies in mind, too, that are simple, elegant, and cheap. In fact, with some of them, an enemy wouldn’t even know they had been attacked. Their infrastructure would just seem to start crumbling for no apparent reason and by the time they found out why, it would be too late for then to defend against it, the damage would already be done.
@George:
Oh Dear… I have a posting ‘in the works’ per stone and the chemistry of it that this brings to mind… IMHO, chemistry is way under-used in weapons…
Unfortunately, between not wanting to have the particular ‘ideas’ in play in the world (and with me responsible) and the fact that the patent law says they can just take the idea and give it to their friends in industry ‘for military’ ideas; I’ve just not seen the ‘motivation’ for me. Some defensive stuff I have shared.
FWIW, I suspect the Israelis are practiced at “The Perfect Accident”…
Oh, the irony. It burns
http://anhonestclimatedebate.wordpress.com/2011/11/20/climate-minister-buys-a-castle-with-16-bathrooms-and-a-massive-carbon-footprint/
Kim Jong-iL dies today! see:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16239693
Time for instabilities on the Koren Peninsula. pg
This guy owns Fox News, now Twitter LOL
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204791104577107733831343976.html
No, he owns 7% Newscorp. The Murdoch family still owns about 45% of the shares in Newscorp.
Yep one of the bigger shareholders in News Corp. Seems to fund both sides of everything ;)
E.M. FYI
“Jones’ CRU/IPCC Data Lost, Corrupted & Unrepeatable”
More (and comments) at
http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/17760
Jones data corrupted! and his proofs unrepeatable. There is no science here, just a lot of bovine feces. There seems to be more corruption, and not just data. pg
@Another Ian:
Taking a look now…
@George & S.P.:
Near as I can tell, Alalaweed invests to make money, not for control games.
Remember, you can invest to make money, or you can be a takeover artist, but not really both. The takeover artist often does make money, but it is from buying broken things and fixing them.
Also, last I looked (about a decade ago?) Fox had two classes of stock with two different levels of voting rights. IIRC, Murdoch has a majority vote… but that could be way out of date memory.
@George:
Clearly I’m on the wrong side of this ‘debate’. If only I didn’t have a ‘moral compass’…. I’d like to own a castle ;-)
@P.G.Sharrow:
Yeah, couldn’t happen to a nicer guy. S.Korea stocks will dip a while until the kid Kim Un, gets sorted out…
A loss to all of humanity that can never be made good. Pieces of our history have been lost forever.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/dec/19/cairo-institute-burned-during-clashes
Nothing infuriates me [more] than a loss of archives due to a temper tantrum.
@George:
Yeah, saw that on Al Jazeera IIRC. Couldn’t bear to post about it. Too much emotion and hard to stay ‘centered’…
Worked with a guy from somewhere over there. Arab of some extraction. ( I THINK maybe Egyptian). He said there were thousands and thousands of documents written in ancient Coptic ( I was asking him about learning Coptic and was it useful) that had never been translated.
It would seem they have buildings full of the stuff, but nobody cares enough to find out what it is… (Yes, hear-say from only one person… but still, if only 1/2 true it is amazing).
I looked into learning Coptic, and it isn’t THAT hard. Related to Arabic and Hebrew, but with some word differences. It also went through a couple of fairly clearly defined syntax changes and such (as most languages used for a few thousand years do..) but mostly not too hard. All I can figure is that learning to read the script puts folks off. (It IS a bizarre script, or rather, a couple of them).
Seems that when Islam took over, everyone had to read the Koran in Arabic, so over a modest period of time just swapped over. Leaving whole libraries of “old stuff” that nobody could read anymore. Islam, being much more focused on NOW and spreading Islam, was much less interested in reading ‘old stuff’.
One can only wonder what all will be rotted, burned, and simply thrown out (or has been already over the last 1000 years or so).
I think I need to stop now….
Ref: “Schools of Fish, Schools of Thought”
http://johnhawks.net/weblog/topics/metascience/couzin-decision-out-of-africa-2011.html
While John Hawks paints a picture of anthropology he does use a wide brush. I found myself thinking, “Precisely the problem in Climatology, and any number of other fields of endeavour in life. Including Stock Markets, Politics, Education, Social Welfare, ad nauseum”
We do tend to “defer” to the perceived leader. Sometimes too fast. We go into Group Think mode and this does nothing to improve the science or system a’tall.
E.M. This might be of interest!
“Dec 22 2011
The Third Nail In The CRU/IPCC AGW Coffin”
http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/17772#more-17772
@Another Ian:
Yes, it is!
@Paskvacs:
Maybe that’s my problem… I never defer to a “perceived leader”, I defer to what is right and what is best…
Three earthquakes in Chistchurch, NZ
MAP 5.8 2011/12/23 02:18:02 -43.491 172.844 4.9 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
MAP 5.3 2011/12/23 01:06:25 -43.456 172.899 3.7 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
MAP 5.8 2011/12/23 00:58:36 -43.489 172.977 4.7 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
This article out before the last 5.8 struck. Apparently power outages, at least one building collapse, and some liquifaction.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10775043
E.M.
A.J Strata has just added a major update to the post above.
Merry Xmas
[I presume you mean this one:
http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/17772#more-17772
-E.M.Smith ]
EM – Merry Christmas & Happy New Year to you and yours!
PS: Can’t recall if you had a New Year prediction thread in the past. Would be interesting to hear what you and others think the Main Events of 2012 will be. You and the regulars have very Wide Areas of Interest and personal backgrounds, and the coming year looks like are real Lulu from here, at this moment, in many, many ways and areas. Again, MC&HNY.
@Pascvaks:
I’ve not had an annual prediction posting. Since I do roughly monthly market “looks” that have a predictive aspect, I’ve not felt the need for it.
The other problem with annual scale predictions is the same one that causes climate models to be worthless. Things have a stochastic chaotic aspect that tosses the model results in the trash in short order.
So, for example, there will be an election for president. A major hinge point for future history. Who wins is likely to depend on who is the Republican candidate. Right now polls of likely voters shows some win vs Obama and some lose, but by single digit margins. Get it wrong as to who is the candidate, or have a minor (whatever – weather, scandal, war) driven wobble in the numbers: You get a different president and dramatically different future events.
You see this a lot in the “Predicting doom in our time” prophetic shows on, for example, the History Chanel. They had one running this week where one of the guys went on endlessly about how we are going to “run out of water”. I wanted to shout in his face “The Water DOES NOT GO AWAY!!!”. You can’t run out of it. At most, you need to cycle it faster. Perhaps add some desalinizers. We’ve been ‘running out of fresh water’ since the first water hole dried up in the African Desert millions of years ago… and we’ve created all kinds of water management systems as a result.
So every one of his predictions is just trash as they all depend on a fantasy and ignore existing water purification technology.
Since I figure everyone, including me, is blind to some aspect of the globe, we will all miss something. So all predictions will diverge from reality fairly quickly. I think I’m good for about 6 months on most things. For others, like climate/average-weather where there are well understood multiyear and multidecade drivers, I think I get it right out to about the 50 year point – yet even there, the longer cycles could pop up and surprise me and / or we could have a “rock fall event”. Will there be a major volcano in 2012? Will the sun shut down more? Will there be a major rock fall? As those are unknowable, even a good long duration climate expectation (cold, getting colder slowly to about 2030) could be turned into LIA2 in a few days.
Given all that, I don’t see the point of predictions… other than for entertainment value. But if folks want one, I’ll put one up for the new year…
I know that you have an interest in henges. For a mere $300,000 you could buy Carhenge in Alliance, Nebraska. True, it is not a real henge, but how many people can say they own a henge?
http://newsfeed.time.com/2011/10/22/carhenge-for-sale-own-a-nebraska-landmark-for-300000/
@Judy F:
But it IS a real henge!!! (I just hope they got the alignments right when the built it…)
Personally, I’d have used station wagons as more appropriately shaped…
One of my “someday projects” is to design a henge for the equator. Several bits have to change in ‘odd ways’ and it’s not clear how to preserve the most function during the transition. It was a bit of pondering on that issue that lead to the “equatorial equatorial sundial” posting:
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/01/30/equatorial-equatorial-sundial/
and some thoughts on how to get the length standard right at the equator:
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/01/30/unifying-the-cubits-the-yard-and-the-rod/
Being in Nebraska, it won’t have all the properties of the original henge ( must be near 50 N for that) but if they did a credible job at all it will be a decent solstice marker and ought to count lunations, a 19 year lunar cycle, the year, and a few other things. May not get Sirius Rising quite right unless they adjusted it, though…
Yes, I need a henge… Not moving to Nebraska during a cold winter phase, though ;-) Wonder how you say “henge” in Mexican Spanish ;-)
M7.0 Japan off the southern coast. Pretty deep, though, 348km depth, so not likely to have caused a lot of damage anywhere.
Old New Year’s this and thats –
My late Mother-in-Law, a very fine woman, had a habbit of making note of the temp and weather for the first 12 days of the year. “Jan 1- 41/62, Rain AM, Sun PM”, “Jan 2 – etc”. This, I’m sure, was something she’d been taught as a girl growing up on her family’s farm. It was essentially a poor man’s weather predictor for each month of the coming year. Anything above or below normal meant the pattern would show in the corresponding month. Not bad if ‘The Old Farmer’s Almanac’ was just a little pricey. Bet there’s similiar New Year calendar ‘notations’ on various matters of life before the web, and tv, and radio, and newspapers, etc..
PS: Time for a T3? Maybe?
FYI –
From the “Climatology is Settled Science –Not!” School of Physics
http://notrickszone.com/2012/01/02/new-paper-reveals-up-to-now-spectacular-unreported-sea-level-connection/
They’re out to get us I tell you. Haven’t heard of this one before –
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2081219/Is-super-volcano-Laacher-See-lake-Germany-blow.html
Christchurch NZ being rocked by a swam of M5-M6 quakes.
@George:
Well, that’s not good. A swarm of small ones can precede a very large one, or an awakening volcano (and, IIRC, they are on the area next to a modestly large one…)
@Chuckles:
Golly, dead center of Europe a large volcano… but the article doesn’t say WHAT signs of new activity were observed…
Have to look up Laacher now…
Update: Having looked into it, it seems that nothing of substance really points to an imminent eruption. The CO2 has been bubbling for centuries and the ‘recurrence interval’ is very poorly substantiated. That leave some ill defined quakes that are likely to be common at any old volcano anyway. Looks like the 2012 Doom Stories are getting started right off the bat…
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/01/fearmongering-gets-started-in-2012-laacher-see-is-not-ready-to-blow/
@Pacvaks:
I’m trying to transition from the “Tx” form to a “Open Talk Day” form for the various announcements. Why? Because folks fill them up so fast and there is only so much linear realestate across the standard at the top…. Then I ether need to delete one or two or???
FWIW, many farmers would keep their own record books of daily temperatures. These are a very much underutilized record that I think will become more important as we try to recover from the temperature record vandalism done by The Team and Cru…
Over 1000 dead in Philippines typhoon
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16336706
And it looks like desperation is setting in, in Iran.
http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/03/9910670-iran-warns-us-carrier-to-stay-out-of-persian-gulf
Iran has warned the US not to ever send an aircraft carrier into the Persian Gulf. Apparently they didn’t learn from Libya’s claim on the Gulf of Sidra.
@George:
I think they have been sucking their own exhaust too much and believe too much of their own propaganda…
They are clearly looking for a Knight Fork with either a weak Obama chased from the gulf OR a “casus belli’ to have a minor battle somewhere and get the people focused on The Great Satan (and off of lousy leadership). Yet they seem incredibly unaware of the firepower of a Carrier Fleet…. Heck, just the subs that lurk around it can flatten Tehran with cruse missiles and the nukes on board can take out most of a continent… or two… ( And I’d not put it past our “dirty tricks” guys to have one with an Iranian / Soviet isotope signature so we could claim: “they tried to use one of their own and it blew up on them… all you other Nuclear Wannabees think about that…”)
My only worry is that Israel and Obama see it as a ‘win win’ opportunity where the USA can let Iran hit a minor ship with a missile (keeping the big ones defended and maybe even providing a live video feed so the world can see us attacked) then use that as an excuse for the carrier to launch air cover and take out Iranian Navy (and incidentally take out all the air defenses) and then Israel can just wander in and bomb the Iranian Nuke Sites on their own initiative and “opportunistically”… It would risk starting a general war in all of the Middle East, but would clear up The Iranian Problem for everyone in the neighborhood….
Sometimes I really wish I didn’t see such “potential” so clearly…
Were I the president, I’d be seriously asking my staff if we could “make that happen”… Heck, if you do it right you can even make a public announcement of an “order” to the fleet to “stand down to defense only” (just AFTER the Israelis finish up…) and claim that there were standing orders for the fleet to defend itself (and folks need to remember THAT…) but no ‘aggressive’ orders had been issued. Nice plausible deniability… He could even publicly chastise Israel for being so “reckless and opportunistic”…
Well, it DOES look like 2012 is shaping up to be very interesting…
“Heck, just the subs that lurk around it can flatten Tehran with cruse missiles”
I noticed a newswire photo yesterday of a bazillion little Iranian boats buzzing out of a harbor into the strait and thought to myself at the time that a single Hellfire missile from a drone would have no problem taking out one of those boats. That entire fleet of boats could be taken out by drones piloted by people sitting in a shack somewhere in the US and the Iranians would have nothing at which to shoot back (or anything with which TO shoot back).
This move by the Iranians puts Obama in a tough spot. Basically he must look as if he has been cowed by the Iranians by not sending the carrier back into the Gulf or he ignores the Iranians and risks a military confrontation just as defense budgets are being slashed to the bone. Iran knows that our “progressives” have managed to manipulate the budget process to a point where all available funds are going to social benefits and we can’t afford a military anymore. Yes, it will be very interesting.
E.M. FYI
http://joannenova.com.au/2012/01/john-osullivan-puts-his-house-on-the-line-more-than-any-skeptic-ought-to-be-asked-to-do/
The labor folks learned statistics at the same schools the climate folks went to:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/real-jobless-rate-114-realistic-labor-force-participation-rate
@Richard Ilfeld:
VERY interesting… Especially as Obama and friends are ought touting that unemployment dropped on the numbers published today…
If you really do have the time to be foolish, even stupid, then a Carteer or OBYuan presidency costs but can’t hurt. Take the DOD budget issue, two war, one war, no war hype and grumbling. The benefit is in the melee of reassessment. Given our glorious way of doing federal gubment bizmess, I wouldn’t worry too much about a one term OBYuan or a one term RonPaul 2012-2016, we’ve been pretty stupid since the Evil Empire died and we sure do need to dry clean the federal mess. Now, short of another Great Depression, a RonPaul would be an ideal President if he had the congressional support to knockdown 51% (or more) of the current house of cards we have in DC. Just daydreaming, not a fan of depressions, but depressions do a much better job of cleaning up a big mess and refocusing the entire population on what really matters.
Possible decadal PDO mechanism.
Default cold PDO generally super-cu-nim down middle of Pacific causing Tradewinds so evap cooling even under cloudless skies. Also westerly push from Trades. At western side continent and islands break up Trades into sub cu-nims lessening super-cu-nim effect at western end. Also off-shore cold night breeze may clip them off early.
So western end of Pacific gets warmer and less saline from rivers and eventually El Nino bursts across the Pacific. But the extra heat invigorates the super-cu-nims and Trades so El Nino repulsed fairly quickly in cold PDO.
Warm PDO:
The Ring of Fire goes through the abysmal depths around there.
There is no knowing the geothermal heat and dissolved gases released from uncharted black smokers &c.
Could an enormous pool of warm saline water build up in the Deep held down by a colder less saline cap?
During the warm PDO this might be releasing gobs of warm water like a lava lamp which connect with the Pacific Warm Pool and give El Ninos the edge for warm PDO?
E.M. More fyi
http://joannenova.com.au/2012/01/nir-shaviv-on-ipccs-exaggerated-climate-sensitivity-and-the-emperors-new-clothes/
Nice work if you can get it:
http://dalesdesigns.net/planned.htm
WOW, Just WOW!
The same scam, for 25 years, worth millions, and nobody even noticed…
Now THAT is a class act.
E.M. Maybe time for T3 for us folk who have sub-speed-of-light-computers?
@Another Ian:
The problem is that Tips and T2 filled up very fast (so I started using “open talk” pages instead to take some of the load off) and there is a fixed amount of ‘real estate’ on the top bar for T3, T4, … Tn so it will fill up “right quick”, at which time I either DELETE all the old comments in Tips et. al. (that have a lot of good stuff in them) or dream up some other ‘fix’.
If you are just looking for a ‘light weight landing spot’, I’d suggest the FOIA or “about” pages both of which are fairly light.
I’m open to suggestions and if folks know some WordPress Magic to change a page to a post or a post to a page that would be nice too.
@ E.M.
Have you seen this post on WUWT by Robert Brown about : Crowd-sourced physical climatology & open climate model :
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/12/earths-baseline-black-body-model-a-damn-hard-problem/#comment-862856
@Pete:
Had not seen it… Interesting….
I think it’s most likely correct. The original “error” was Hansen attributing to CO2 the 33 C not otherwise accounted. The reality is that it’s gas, any gas will do… If it doesn’t radiate, it will convect. Eventually reaching a temperature where it will radiate. SOME frequencies of energy reach the earth. What gets there is to some extent absorbed and that energy eventually ends up as heat that will become temperatures. Enough of that and you get either convection or radiation (and you don’t care which) until the heat leaves again. IMHO, more IR absorption band just means more convection, not higher net temperature. (It also means more inbound IR absorbed at altitude so less reaching the ground to warm it in the first place ;-)
E.M.
Ok. Point made and point taken. And I’m not a fixer here.
I learned some (long) time back that the line of poetry “They also serve who only stand and wait” was written in anticipation of students waiting for their card decks and prints to hit a pigeon hole.
What do you make of this NASA slideshow on LENR?
See especially slide 36
Verified by a NASA video on Langley Researc Center Technology Gateway, though very dumbed-down version from internal slideshow.
Earthquake near Hot Springs, South Dakota (!)
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Maps/US2/43.45.-104.-102.php
E.M.
Re – Tips and T2 getting very long… You can create ‘parent’ pages across the top (at least of some themes). Open ‘Pages’ and click ‘quick edit’ – on ‘Twenty Ten’ theme I can see an option to the right of the page title that allows that. So you could creat a Tips parent page on the top bar and have T1-Tx as sub-pages which will sit on a drop-down menu (a la WUWT). It seems you can even control the order so that the most recent is near the top. I guess you can just close the older ones when they get very long.
Alternatively there’s a plugin – I haven’t tried it –
http://wordpress.org/extend/plugins/p2pconverter/
Converts either a static Page into a Post, or a Post into a static Page! Depending on what type you want to convert, click on Posts or Pages.
I think Anthony does that with his reference pages. Alternatively, the older tips can be edited to prune chitchat and keep tips.
E.M. Words developing here
http://diggingintheclay.wordpress.com/2012/01/15/neologism/#comment-1783
The irony in this photo. I wonder how many acres of habitat have been completely destroyed by this solar array.
E.M. FYI. More words brewing too.
http://joannenova.com.au/2012/01/the-doomsians-are-panixilated/
Better check the supplies of nubile young ladies. Might need to placate some of the gods in the near future –
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2091130/Death-Valleys-Ubehebe-volcano-say-Columbia-University-researchers.html
AMSU-A Channel 5 has been practically in free-fall since Jan 1. At 14,000 feet we are at the coldest temperature it has ever recorded (since 2002).
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps
2008 was the previous coldest but we are now well below that.
E.M. FYI
http://joannenova.com.au/2012/01/new-element-governmentium-heaviest-known-and-paradoxically-increasing/#more-19973
OK, thanks to Verity, we now have a “T” page that lists the archived sets, I’ve recovered some ‘real estate’ on the top bar, and there is a new ‘T3’ page.
As this solution is generic and open ended, I will not need to be quite so sparing in how often a new page is generated…
Archive list: https://chiefio.wordpress.com/t/
Newest page just added: https://chiefio.wordpress.com/t3/
@George:
Don’t know if something changed, but that link gave me an error. OTOH, this link shows a bit of cold:
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/AAT_Browse.php?chan=10&satnum=15&aord=d