SPY 2 year daily from 1 July 2013 with assorted tickers of global interest
This is a rather worrying chart. Not only for what it says about the S&P 500 ticker “SPY”, but also for what it says about the global state of things. This is a 2 year chart, which is a bit unusual for me, but sometimes it gives a bit more perspective on things than a 1 year chart. (FWIW, the 10 year weekly chart looks like a long term top is possible ‘soon’, but that is second guessing at this point. It will take a couple of more weeks for it to confirm or reject that idea.)
Looking at this chart, the first thing to notice is that only US stocks are going up compared to a broad variety of global indicators. (I removed a few others with the same pattern, such as China, just so this is a bit more readable). RUT and SPY are going up; but all the others rolled over some time ago. That kind of behaviour is usually not sustainable. Something is likely to change.
Now look more closely at RUT (The Russel 2000 stocks) and SPY the S&P 500. They have both have a similar pattern. About a month back, RSI had a ‘near 80’ moment, then MACD rolled over with “red on top” and DMI went to “red on top”. RSI is now doing “lower highs” and MACD has crossed the zero line to below zero. All that says “bias and trend are negative”. There are two possible interpretations. Long term “rollover” to a long term negative bias; or “buy the dip” like last November.
Which is it? Hard to say. But… I’d not be buying this dip for a long term hold. I might put a ‘counter trend trade’ on, but be ready to exit at a moments notice. We do not yet have a ‘topping weave’ of the SMA lines, nor has the 10 year chart given a ‘be out’ confirmation.
Now back at those other tickers. JJC, copper, is in the basement. It might have a small bottoming flat to it (the two recent down dips are almost the same depth). But what it is clearly saying is that demand for copper is not very high. Folks are not buying a lot of things that use copper. (Houses, cars, electronics, electrical infrastructure, factories,…)
GLD Gold and TLT long duration bonds are both in well established down trends. The “safe havens” are not being safe. (Yen, the green line on the chart, is also in a long plunge, but showing a bit of flat recently). EEM (Emerging markets – the blue line) and FXI (China) also not on the chart, are down fairly hard (emerging markets often fall apart first and fall further). Both “risk on” and “risk off” assets are falling. EWU, the UK, the darker black/gray line, has been mostly flat, then has a bubble up, and falls back hard. EZU, the EU composite, had risen over the last year or so, but is now back to about where it was 8 months back, and even 15 months back. A lot of wobble going nowhere.
So how long can US stocks have a different story from ALL those other asset classes? Perhaps only as long as The Fed feeds the bubble? Yet The Fed has given a ‘last call’ for the punch bowl…
How about a ‘zoom in’ on things?
SPY 6 month daily with volume for 1 July 2013
OK, different ticker set so the colors have changed. First off, look at the price bars for SPY. Fat bars on the downside, very small ‘star’ like bars on the up move at the right edge. Not good. Fast down, hard to get motion to the upside and not much daily range. It tries to rise middle of each day, but ends up back about where it opened. Sellers come in and swamp the buyers of the mid-day rise. Now look at volume. BIG volume spike on the down run near the right edge, then a much lower volume on the upside days. Also not good. Not a lot of conviction on the upside. Significant “get me out” on the downside.
Some more subtle bits: RUT is above SPY. It tends to overshoot each side, above on ‘close to the top’ and below on ‘buy the dip’ or bottoms. QQQQ, the Nasdaq, is trailing in this rise, and is dropping a tiny bit faster in the rolldown. Also the TIP Treasuring Inflation Protected securities have started dropping too. Even one of the most safe “safe havens” is in trouble. Copper, Gold, and Emerging Markets all dropping fairly strongly.
The biggest thing for me is just those ‘squinched up’ squeezed price bars and the low volume in the rises, vs high volume in the drop. It is just not looking like a lot of conviction in a ‘buy the dip’. In the March start and late April dips, there is a high volume bar to the upside at the reversal. We don’t have that now.
In Conclusion
All this says to me that the “safe havens” are not, and cash is the only safe haven at the moment (or some ticker I’ve not investigated). The “trade” looks like “short bonds” at the moment, but perhaps a ‘short stocks’ soon; though a “short commodities / long US stocks” has been working. But even there, the commodities look to be nearing “long in the tooth” as a downtrend. While globally the news flow is not good (trouble in Turkey and a renewal of the chaos in Egypt, for example, and China in a slowdown).
All in all, this still looks “not so good” to me. I just don’t see much reason to think that US Stocks can move against the rest of the global pattern without The Fed continuing to flood the market with free cash.
IMHO, I’d not “buy this dip”, but would instead go to cash. (Then again, I thought that last dip and have been largely in cash since then). Clearly the risk in just about any other asset class has been substantial. The overall ‘risk reward’ profile has not been very good outside of US stocks. So my overall impression is that this is “just another Fed Bubble” and those usually end badly.
The only way this has a happy ending is if global growth suddenly takes off, and I’m just not seeing that. Adding Obamacare costs on top of it, seasoning with EPA regulation to death, and add in a load of higher energy costs and I’m just not seeing where an economic “good times” happens. Interest rates are rising, so any housing recovery will become stilted and business investment will slow. It is possible for a big economic boom to push past that, but from where does that “boom” come? Not China adding a big consumer class demanding US goods. Not the US consumer suddenly feeling wealthy (not with a few $Thousand more taxes sucked out of them by Obamacare and other tax hikes; along with price inflation for what they buy – even as wages stay flattish holding official inflation averages down).
All in all, just too many negatives and not enough countervailing positives to make up for them.
I’m “sitting out” as much as possible.
Musings from the Chiefio 
Very good analysis EM. Quite frankly I’m surprised the market has held up this well, even with all the FED pumping. I expect things to get crazy again down the road. What your seeing is early signs of this. Its my opinion you get out or bet the down side.
Always a cheerful sort, aren’t you.
I think you have done a good job presenting and interpreting these charts. The issue then becomes what to do about it, if anything. One has to consider where on the life-curve you are. A 20 year old with small savings can’t do much. Retired folks (here we are) have to decide whether to go really defensive (cash or equivalent) or seek income in stocks, bonds, or something else (all seem risky). I don’t see how we march into the future without significant inflation. Been there, seen that. Some say you need to cover your basics for about 5 to 7 years with cash and otherwise stay invested. This is a bit scary but reports show that much of the up side in the stock market happens in just a few days of a year. If you miss those days there is no benefit getting in a day late. Further, most folks have no good alternative for earnings other than the stock market so they are on the sidelines, waiting, waiting – until they just missed it. But, the major traders will win that game. Say, for example, the US government unexpectedly announces that foreign profits of US companies can be brought back with just a minimum tax hit. Actually, the hint of such a policy shift – would drive the market up. Yet here in the Pacific Time Zone by the time I woke and checked the news, all the up-action for the day would be over. As we don’t know what the triggers will be, or when, there is a good argument for staying partially invested in stocks (mutual funds).
How many central banks are pumping trillions into their markets? Bernanke has already signaled a cessation. It was the warning shot across the bow.
@BobN:
I forgot to mention that on the second chart, we have price coming back to the SMA lines from below, as the SMA lines start to weave together. That’s a classical “retest” of those highs with the early formation of a ‘topping weave’ (my term for it) of the SMA stack. On the 10 year weekly chart, it is setting up the same status. Potentially just a big dip, but looking like the early stages of a “confirm the reversal of trend”.
Not on this chart was real estate. It is possible for it to be a different trend. I’d need to look at it to know for sure. But with interest rates rising, it can take a dip too. It looks to me like I need to start doing “WSW” postings again. It’s a broader look at things with more asset classes and a deeper investigation. Maybe this Friday…
@John F. Hultquist:
“It’s not about me!”
It isn’t a question of me being cheery or not. (In fact, I’m quite happy in recent days). “Reality just is. -E.M.Smith”. All I’m doing is absolutely dispassionately reporting the facts as they are and my understanding of what they mean without any of my emotional state coloring the analysis (to the extent I can). The “mental state” brought to the analysis is, as much as possible, to just “be the empty vessel”. It is very important to be as “uninvolved” as possible or the analysis gets skewed.
The squeeze on folks assets is a deliberate aspect of The Fed policy. The intent is to drive money out of financial assets and into circulation in the general economy. To get the money “out of the mattress” and into circulation to stimulate the economy. So large holders of bonds are supposed to be motivated to sell those bonds and instead seek higher returns in things like building rentals and starting new businesses. I think it a crude “tool”, as it brings harm to retired folks living on those financial savings and takes that “income’ out of the economy. IMHO they (the global economist elite) have missed the shift in age profile to a lot more retired folks. There is less money being “saved” for 20 years by middle aged folks (that can reasonably be redeployed into “productive” economic activity) and much more in the hands of “70 something” folks who are just not going to be shifting into “risk assets” like a new rental property… So instead those folks will camp in cash and ‘tough it out’. Net lower “velocity of money”, instead of higher; for those folks. (Just a small part of the total problem, but still counter to classical theory. The question is “do all these little backwards bits” add up to enough to negate the expected effect of The Fed action…)
Your observation on “fast events” is very accurate. But look again at that chart above. There is a two YEAR rise of stocks in the USA. Not days. Years. It is the drops that happen “damn fast”. That is why I set a “Bias” to be invested in rising trends, but have a fast trigger to exit on reversals and then a rapid ‘get back in’ at the return above the SMA stack. Dodging the dips, as it were. It’s the DROPS that are fast, not the rises… And as soon as we “return to the SMA stack from below and fail to penetrate it”, the BIAS shifts to “be out or short”. We are now at the SMA stack again, from below. If prices make it through and trend up again, it will run that way for several more months, not days. If they fail, the fall will likely be rapid and far.
In general, the “trade rules” are to “buy the dip” at the first reversal back toward the up direction (use ‘buy if touched’ orders above the falling dip), then step out again at the SMA touch from below (or buy protective puts for a short time). After the infection is resolved (either a punch through of the SMA stack or a falling away) the “be out” or the “hedged trade with puts” is converted to a directional trade in the direction of the resolution. (Sell either the stocks or the puts, whichever half of the hedge is losing value; or put on a directional trade of long or short stocks). Yes, a lot of work and “active trading” not investing. But that’s why it takes to make money when 75% of all trades in the market are made by computers, not people, and when the actions of giant hedge funds drive prices, not the buying of stocks by real investors who care about the company financials and success.
So “that’s what I do”…
In general, market crashes run about a year. Rises run for about 8, but in cycles of about a year each. There’s lots of time to trade those major trends. I’ll put up a “long term investor” example in a few days (10 year or longer charts showing what “buy and hope” investors ought to use for timing to avoid major crashes). It is just days that determine trade swings, but it is year scales that matter to the investor, and you can ‘trend follow’ without missing the rise.
E.M. Smith,
I do not understand economics, nor trust the current system of currency. But my limited understanding of physical science sciences suggest that society in is very serious trouble, as explained in the open message sent today (2 July 2013) to the Committee on Space Science and Technology of the United States House of Representatives:
The United States House of Representatives
Committee on Space Science and Technology
Washington, DC, USA
Greetings,
RE: Open Message on the Corruption of Science:
The Destruction of Inalienable Rights of Citizens
Concern for our increasingly unstable society and for those trying to prevent it’s violent eruption by destroying basic constitutional rights of citizens would benefit from your active investigation and support, if confirmed, of one indisputable fact
1. Supported by the best available scientific measurements and observations on rest masses, abundances and half-lives of atoms and elements in the Earth, the Moon, the Sun, meteorites, Mars and Jupiter;
2. Consistent with the spiritual teachings of every major religion; and
3. Hidden from the public after 1945 out of fear this information might be used to destroy life on Earth by nuclear annihilation:
The core of the Sun is a pulsar that made our elements and gave explosive birth to the Solar System five billion years (5 Gyr) ago. Its source of energy – neutron repulsion – is the same energy that vaporized Hiroshima and Nagasaki on Aug 6 and 9, 1945 (and frightened world leaders into forming the United Nations on 24 Oct 1945 to save the world from nuclear annihilation). The Sun’s core is made of neutrons (n). An expanded neutron form – hydrogen atoms (1H) – pours from its atmosphere. Hydrogen and Helium are by-products of the production of solar energy. The most abundant atom in the Sun, iron-56 (56Fe), is the most stable combination of neutrons and hydrogen atoms. Other mixtures of neutrons and hydrogen atoms comprise every atom in the Solar System, as shown on the front cover of the Proceedings of the 1999 ACS Symposium on the Origin of Elements in the Solar System organized with help from the late Nobel Laureate Dr. Glenn T. Seaborg:
Half-life measurements at Purdue suggest that other than gravitational, electrical, nuclear and magnetic force fields invisibly connect every atom to the pulsar and to each other over vast regions of space (greater than the combined volume of ten billion, billion Earths) that filled with debris from the explosive birth of the Solar System five billion years ago.
Our fate and Earth’s constantly changing climate depend entirely on the pulsar that government scientists hid from the public after 1945.
Copies of this message will be sent to individual members of Congress and to others concerned about the tension between US citizens and the US government, the corruption of government science, and the loss of basic constitutional rights of US citizens.
With kind regards,
Oliver K. Manuel
Former NASA Principal
Investigator for Apollo
PhD Nuclear Chemistry
Postdoc Space Physics
Fed will have to increase printing. Not decrease. Look at how nervous the market gets when Bernanke even mentions that he might decrease printing.
7% of US GDP are currently created with the printing press.
Bernanke this time didn’t even mention the word “exit strategy”. That would have sent the market into epileptic spasms.
Oh and; the Fed is already buying 70% of newly issued US government debt. This percentage is also on an upward trend.
Why can’t he stop printing? Because that would mean instant depression.
@DirkH – The problem is getting worse, the longer and more they print the harder and the farther we fall. Its a zero sum game that will come to an end one way or the other. So many just don’t see what is going on. The country is in real danger, way more than any war we have been in. Personally I don’t see a way out.
I always thought that printing money leads to inflation and should stop, but maybe it should be brought to a phased stop over 33 months say. Divide however much they are printing today by 33 and cut that much each month till they get to zero after 33 months. Enough time for the markets to adjust without panicking.
And then there is that multi trillion balance of payments thing, stop importing oil would help. Might be that fracking is the only thing that can save the US from a bit of a big crash by giving industry a competitive advantage over the rest of the world, and that way turn round that deficit problem.
BobN says:
2 July 2013 at 8:51 pm
“So many just don’t see what is going on. The country is in real danger, way more than any war we have been in. Personally I don’t see a way out.”
Currency reform.
“Inflation is the creation of purchasing power in a country that has a permanent trade deficit.”
(Jaques Rueff – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacques_Rueff )
Similar to the USA today, the Weimar republic intentionally inflated the Papiermark; to exchange it against hard currency and pay reparations with that currency.
After a short period of hyperinflation, they simply exchanged old Papiermark for new, I think in the relation of 1 trillion to 1.
https://mises.org/daily/3661
” The Allies seized nearly the entire German merchant marine and nearly all the railroad
rolling stock. Gold-mark reparations were also imposed.
Against this background, the Weimar policy of intentional currency debasement made a certain perverted sense.
Until the very end, willing foreign buyers could always be found for paper marks, so the Republic could still obtain the hard currency needed to meet Allied reparation demands.
This program produced both winners and losers. Landlords lost, since rents were fixed. Mortgage holders lost, seeing their holdings diminish to one trillionth of their original gold value. The Allies never collected more than a fraction of the reparations they demanded, which did benefit the Germans to some extent. Capitalists thought they were winners as they malinvested (but by 1930, Graham reports, the German economic buzzword was “rationalization” which in practice meant the destruction of the excess capital accumulation of the inflation years). Workers, in the beginning, thought they too were receiving benefits.”
I am not sure if comparing Weimar Germany to the US today is apples to apples. Today everywhere you look someone is doing QE. where is the most stable currency? The Euro? I don’t think so…the Japanese Yen? A quick look under the hood and I turn my head. The rupee? the real? The pound? Swiss francs? Not enough of them to go around. To me the much maligned green back starts to look not so bad. I wouldn’t mind buying some Icelandic krona either…they’ve pretty much made it through the fan. Haven’t looked into it though so take that with a gram of salted cod.
BobN says:
…..So many just don’t see what is going on. The country is in real danger, way more than any war we have been in. Personally I don’t see a way out.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
There is a way out but those who want to cripple the USA and bring in a world government as stated by WTO, need to do away with the US Constitution completely so are not about to take it.
There are four big changes in policy to make.
#1. Stop poking our nose in the business of other countries and quit sending billions of $$$ and young people (military) overseas. Close the darn boarders and kick out the illegals and H1B visa holders. The USA has 22% unemployment so employ citizens FIRST! Get the he!! out of the WTO, NAFTA, and the UN. Place a tariff on incoming goods so they sell at the same or a slightly higher price compared to US made goods. That is what tariffs are SUPPOSED to do. Protect the countries manufacturing from products made by slave labor. Instead the tax revenue from tariffs has been replaced by tax revenue from wage earners. (had the graph but lost it)
#2. Slash regulations across the board. Elected reps from cities and towns up to Congress need to spend the next ten years READING ALL the d@mn regulations that are stifling business, especially the small businesses that are the life blood of the economy, and get rid of 90% of them. This includes getting rid of whole bureaucracies like the DOE and the national department of Education, EPA, ….
#3. Support energy like coal, natural gas, oil and nuclear by relaxing regulations/laws.
#4. Get rid of Fractional Reserve Banking or at least set the fraction at something like 90% real and 10% fairy dust and build walls and baracades around it. While you are at it ANY loans made with 100% fairy dust become null and void since there is NO Contract where there was no CONSIDERATION (thing of value, fairy dust is not a thing of value)
#5 No more ‘Bailouts”
Instead of a common sense approach like above we have the Idiot in Chief wanting to shut down 80% of the electricity in the USA and having succeeded in shutting down 10% already. We have Al Gore shoving ‘Interdependence’ and Bill Clinton shoving ‘Third Way’ touchy-feely crap down the throats of the gullible.
There is a very good reason why the DHS is stockpiling Ammo and local police are being given military equipment.
Business Insider 20011: The Pentagon Is Offering Free Military Hardware To Every Police Department In The US
Business Insider 2013: Concerns Grow As Local Police Look More And More Like The Military
26% of Obama Supporters View Tea Party as Nation’s Top Terror Threat instead of muslim terrorists. (Thank you MSM propaganda)
Any trust I had in the government left the barn a long long time ago and the more I read the less I trust and the more I think the average joe is in a long slow war against those who want to destroy this country from the inside. Unfortunately the average joe doesn’t have a clue.
This NYT article has some interesting graphs related to corporations Our Broken Social Contract
@BobN – As I told Dirk, there are actually ways out. But none of them good. The sooner the better, as the longer it goes on, the worse will be the fall. I suspect they are waiting for a Republican to take office, so they can do a “See I told you so!”
Interesting times, a Hollywood movie on spies (for kids only):
I agree with Gail Comb’s list of what needs to be done, but I know it will never happen. The politicians will never do anything that forces a reset, they want their jobs above all else, including the good of the country.
I think all currencies are diluted and essentially worthless and they are too far gone to be recoverable and as such there will be a world crash. Just need one of the dominoes to fall.
Yes BobN there probably will be a world crash because that is what is wanted.
From our old Pal Pascal Lamy Director-General of the WTO:
We know the BRIC countries are ‘Saber-rattling’ about forming their own IMF especially since the Cyprus Haircut and other countries have danced around whether or not a ‘Haircut’ would be allowed.
A recent speech from Lamy 19 June 2013: Lamy: European leaders must lead from the front were he speaks of “the economic crisis in Europe is in reality the backdrop of a wider and deeper European crisis: a crisis in the very soul of European integration”. and economic priority of the EU “completing the banking union” remember he holds up the EU as a template for Global Governance no doubt seeing WTO as an infant EU. The speech is well worth the read.
Oh, and just for Chuckles….
We blew it: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-05/opportunity-squandered-we-blew-it
Sixty-eight years of government deception (2013 – 1045 = 68 yrs) are coming unglued. We know beyond any reasonable doubt that a long line of frightened world leaders and leaders of the scientific community:
_ a.) Were deceived, or
_ b.) Paid scientists to deceive
The public about the source of energy that vaporized Hiroshima and Nagasaki:
See open message of July 4, 2013 posted at the top of my web page to the Space Science and Technology Committee of the US House of Representatives.
With deep regrets,
– Oliver K. Manuel
Former NASA PI for
Apollo Moon Samples
http://omanuel.wordpress.com
DirkH says:
2 July 2013 at 8:22 pm
….Why can’t he stop printing? Because that would mean instant depression.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
So he will wait until there is a Republican president so the Progressives can blame the depression on a Republican scapegoat. It is the same thing as happened with Clinton and Bush. The week Bush set foot in the White House the press started screaming RECESSION. I remember it because my husband and I look at each other and laughed that anyone could blame Bush for a recession when he hadn’t even had time to unpack!
Correction: Sixty-eight years of government deception (2013 – 1945 = 68 yrs) are coming unglued.
Thirty-seven years ago (2013 – 1976 = 37 yrs) the late Dr. Dwarka Das Sabu and I first presented evidence (AGU National Meeting in Washington, DC in April 1976 and later at the 1976 Gregynog Workshop on Isotopic Anomalies, Gregynog, Wales):
The Sun exploded as a supernova and birthed the solar system five billion years (5 Gyr) ago.
Click to access Photo1976GregynogWorkshop.pdf
The experimental observations are as valid today as they were, when first published in 1975.
The same cannot be said for the Nobel and Crafoord Prizes subsequently handed out to those promoting misinformation on the Sun’s origin, composition, and source of energy.
Later today I hope to post another open message to the Space Science and Technology Committee of the US House of Representatives at the top of my web page.
Why? The integrity of constitutional government is closely intertwined with the integrity of government science.
With deep regrets,
– Oliver K. Manuel
Former NASA PI for
Apollo Moon Samples
http://omanuel.wordpress.com