EV Future Path Revisited

Readers here will remember my tepid response to our “mandated” EV Future. From BYD Cars leaping over 15 feet in the air when the battery pack exploded under charging, to myriad small battery appliances (including eBikes) bursting into flames, and the Tesla Flaming Battery Pack problems (both spontaneous and after FOD – Foreign Object Damage from things like nails and bolts on the road).

Tesla has since moved from the Dendrite Forming & Flaming Lithium Ion (Lion) battery to the Lithium Iron Phosphate (LiFePO4, LFP or LIPO) chemistry that doesn’t do that. A low end Chinese manufactured car has come out with the Sodium Ion (Na-ion) battery that also doesn’t do the bursting into flame. The “issue” being that LIPO and Na-ion batteries have about 1/2 the power density of Lion cells, that without doing some kind of Engineering Magic means about 1/2 the range. (But you gain in charging speed – a significant win).

NOTE: For most linked article quotes, bolding was done by me as editorial emphasis.

https://electrek.co/2023/12/27/volkswagen-backed-ev-maker-first-sodium-ion-battery-electric-car/

JAC Group’s Yiwei, a new EV brand in China backed by Volkswagen, debuted the first sodium-ion battery-powered electric car. The new JAC Yiwei EV rolled off the assembly line Wednesday.

Yiwei is a new EV maker under the JAC Group. It was established earlier this year. Volkswagen owns 50% of JAC’s parent company; the other 50% is state-owned.
[…]
JAC introduced the Yiwei 3, the first EV powered by a sodium-ion battery, at the Shanghai Auto Show in February. However, the model launched with an LFP battery, with JAC promising a sodium-ion version was coming.

The automaker also revealed the sodium-ion-battery-powered Sehol E10X, featuring 25 kWh of capacity and 120 Wh/kg of energy density. With 3C to 4C charging, the electric hatchback could recharge from 10% to 80% in 20 minutes.
[…]
Although sodium-ion batteries have a lower energy density than lithium-ion ones, they do offer several advantages. According to JAC, they have better low-temperature performance, faster charging speeds, longer lifespans, and increased durability over time.

Perhaps most importantly, the batteries use cheaper raw materials, which can enable lower EV prices.

So keep an eye on the Sodium Ion Battery. Especially for surviving colder places and for the lower costs and greater safety. Not so much for marathon cross continent drives just yet, but promising.

Well, I’m still not lining up to buy an eCar any time soon. (Mostly because I already have about double the number of cars I want and need, and partly waiting for the tech to improve on the safety side, then a little bit due to the huge privacy intrusions being inserted into new cars – from tattling to your insurance company if you go 1 mph over the speed limit to the coming Breathalyzer With Wheels that will really dampen the Dinner Out market along with Date Night…). But the industry IS improving.

BYD in particular is moving to LIPO battery chemistry (though only in ‘development’ at the time of the article – production will come soon). Now we just need to get all the OTHER eCar and eBike makers on board with LIPO. (AND have the current Lion cohort of eCars age out of the fleet).

https://www.batterydesign.net/byd-blade/

BYD Blade
July 4, 2022 by Nigel
The BYD Blade pack design is the first cell to pack design that encompasses everything this means. Not having a module and the overhead of a module is difficult to achieve. LFP cells make this design easier in some ways and this gives a new lease of life for LFP chemistry. The Tesla with CATL’s LFP cells achieve 126Wh/kg at pack level compared to this Blade pack that achieves 150Wh/kg. A significant improvement, but this is quite a way behind the 82kWh Tesla Model 3 that uses an NCA chemistry and achieves 171Wh/kg at pack level.

Note that this article is from 2022, so not clear if this new battery has made it into production yet. EVERY eCar or EV buyer must know to ask about Battery Chemistry and especially about Lion vs LIPO of LFP. Your life may really depend on it…

Both Tesla and BYD are able to do this transition due to higher packing of battery cells into packs. Basically adjusting geometry of the cell to get around chemical density limits. Exit the round Lion standard cell and enter the custom made rectangular cell.

There’s a whole lot more in the article so “hit the link” for details and test cases. The “bottom line” is that this technology ends most (perhaps all) of my battery safety concerns. It also shortens charging times and may actually make them a tolerable 10 minutes or so (about my usual 5 minute ‘snack and potty break’ time on long trips and an extra 5 minutes of walk around to get rid of bench butt and leg stiffness after 20 hours of driving ;-)

Now the other issue this raises, is if BYD is no longer making Explodo-Cars and Flaming Funeral Boxes, what happens to the market? (You will find a lot of videos out there about BYD Cars doing various kinds of “rapid spontaneous disassembly”)

Well, an engineering tear down found that their present models are pretty darned good and have significant cost and quality advantages over the “Legacy Makers” of The West.

https://www.ubs.com/global/en/investment-bank/in-focus/2023/byd-teardown.html

Will Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) win globally?
UBS Research analysts recently tore down BYD Seal, the latest-gen model from China’s number one carmaker. We share insights into BYD’s tech and cost leadership below

07 Sep 2023

Spoiler Alert: “Uh, yeah.”

So, EU: About the pending end of your car manufacturing. BMW, Mercedes, VW, Renault, etc. YOU are demanding they go ALL EV and right now too. This while they have no good ability to compete with what is coming and admit they are about 1 generation behind the curve. What happens to the EU Funding Model when Germany is no longer the Cash Cow to keep the poorer Nations in the EU via lots of €Euro Transfers, eh?

As the saying goes “Good luck with that”. OTOH, we are now guaranteed to find out anyway since the cut off of cheap Russian Oil & Gas means German Industry in general is not competitive on the Global Market. Kiss off German Steel, specialty metals, engines, anything made of those steels & metals, etc. etc. And anything else made with significant energy inputs, like, oh, cars & trucks, glass and petrochemicals. Fertilizers and food.

Back at the article:

BYD Seal Teardown
Play Video
Will Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) win globally?

At a breathtaking speed since 2020, China has turned from a net importer into the world’s largest exporter of cars. Following the latest addition of BYD Seal (<USD30k EV) to the UBS EV Teardown series, we deep dive into BYD, the latest-gen model from China's number one carmaker, to help better understand its technology, supply chains and cost structures. Why does this matter now? BYD and other leading Chinese OEMs are set to dominate the global automotive market with high-tech, low-cost EVs for the masses, hereby accelerating worldwide EV adoption – this is amid the EV transition of legacy original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) which is progressing at a moderate pace. A more challenging China macro-outlook could even intensify globalisation efforts of those OEMs that can afford it.

Cost leadership

Even with growing trade barriers in mind, there is a sustainable ~25% cost advantage for BYD over legacy competitors, bearing the potential to disrupt legacy OEMs on their home turfs. We expect Chinese OEMs to double their global market share by 2030. We estimate 16% gross margin and 5% EBIT margin for BYD Seal, similar to profits made on mass-market combustion engine cars globally. Compared with mass EVs from legacy OEMs, BYD Seal is the better and much cheaper car, thanks to high vertical integration that leverages BYD's cost lead in battery cells, vehicle integration, powertrain and electronics modules. Connectivity and advanced driver assistance systems are also state of the art.

In contrast, mass EVs from typical legacy OEMs have a much lower degree of vertical integration (we estimate about 30%). When it comes to leveraging the cost advantage in China, BYD can use its China capacity as global production hub, whereas legacy OEMs are just JV partners (usually 50% or less) so that using China capacity to serve the global market is a financially substandard choice. Nonetheless, we expect a handful of Chinese EV leaders to expand their production footprint globally, with Europe being a top priority.
[…]
Globalisation of Chinese OEMs – how will it play out?

Europe is the biggest potential win for Chinese OEMs, for several reasons:

Largest and highest-mix market next to the US, which got ringfenced by IRA;

Fast-growing EV market with the perspective of becoming 100% electric by 2035;

No local European disruptor companies, just legacy OEMs transitioning to EV era at more or less moderate speed;

High segmental overlap with China, i.e., the same vehicle categories (small and compact crossovers and SUVs are the most popular segments in both regions);

Cost advantage for Chinese OEMs that will be very difficult (if not impossible) for European OEMs to replicate.

For legacy OEMs in Europe, the risk of being disrupted on the home turf is very high.

Well I wonder what the WEF, EU Rulers (or is it still a ‘government’?) and Industry Leaders think about this. Skyrocketing energy costs. Industries fleeing or collapsing. China about to eat their lunch, automotively. It will be an interesting time in the old EU as poverty sets in, food security drops, and a “Let Them Eat Cake” aristocracy rules the place. Shades of history repeating…

And the USA? We already have collapsing car sales (especially eCars and high end vehicles) and a population noticing that they can’t buy anything, sometimes not even the “basics”, with a currency that is dropping in value with the exponential explosion of Government Over Spending and Borrowing at the $Trillion every hundred day rate.

I expect the USA collapses will lag the EU / UK by some degree. We still have a lot of cheaper energy available, and the US Consumer still has some power to say “Hell NO, I’m NOT buying that POS. (Piece Of Shi..)” So hopefully someone else can be the “best bad example” before we end up economically collapsing too. But I’m not holding my breath.

I am pretty sure that I’ve bought my last car (though might add another antique if it is a Diesel…) and certainly have bought all I need to reach the end of my driving career (and I’m pretty sure that, unlike California, Florida will not be banning my cars with “emissions free zones”). Any emissions banning zone can also live with my money never arriving either…

I’m pretty sure I’ve got my financial house in order “enough” what with zero debt and zero dependence on a salary. I am converting, at a reasonable rate, my cash accounts into “stuff” – ETFs (exchange traded funds) with a basis in real goods, physical stuff (full inventory of canning supplies & prep for example) and more. Essentially doing what I can to disconnect from a $US or €Euro economy and “prep for inflation”.

I hope that’s enough.

I did a “currency pass” a few months ago, but likely need to do one again. Trying to find what currency is doing best in the world. It “was not good” in that it looked like despite the debt run rate, the $US was stronger than most. I’m pretty sure that was just a “run to safety” from political events then. Eventually a run to safety will be leaving the $US and the €Euro as they move to steal $300 Billion or so of Russian Sovereign Assets they have “frozen”. Euroclear especially will be hit hard if they comply with this, but European and US Banks too. Every Sovereign out there will realize that the USA and EU are no longer safe places to park their money. A LOT of it will run to the BRICs nations. Though just Which ones will be subject to change (about 40 in the wings waiting to join…). So “keep an eye on it” is the best I can do at present.

Until the currencies issue sorts out, I’m mostly in a tiny bit of physical metals (how you gonna make brass without energy?) and gold and silver ETFs. My TIPS position has so far not worked out well (US Bonds, even Inflation Protected, under pressure and the inflation adjustment does not come fast, plus it is a FUND so any sales by the FUND lock in the loss). So that guess was not a good one.

More to come as the world slowly disassembles. (Slow scheduled or unscheduled disassembly? ;-)