Get Ready For A Cold Winter

Already Cold in Brazil and South Africa

As we saw in two earlier postings, it’s already off to a cold start in South Africa and in Brazil. Then, from one of the best meteorologists on the planet, Joe Bastardi, we have more… ( Joe, and Acuweather, is the ‘go to’ weatherman for the financial channels when something goes bump in the night. That’s because he gets it right, and in trading, you must be right or you are out of business.) So what is Joe saying?

From:

http://www.accuweather.com/world-bastardi-europe-blog.asp

we have the following quotes:

However, I was saying back in winter that the guys screaming global warming was causing all the snow and cold should wait because this would be their summer to howl, and there is nothing going on now that wasn’t seen here. But guess what… they better scream now because they won’t be soon. The Earth’s temp is about to do a giant turnaround, so much so that my idea of it hitting normal may be underdone over the next 18 months. This could get as low as a month or two of .2 or .3 c above normal, and Arctic sea ice will rebound DRAMATICALLY in the year-to-year comparisons over the next 2-3 years.

For now, the battle is not yet clear to many, but I am as confident about that forecast as any as I have made. You watch what happens globally this fall into next year. It won’t be pretty, as a dramatic drop is on the way.

“Giant turnaround”. “It won’t be pretty, as a dramatic drop is on the way.”

Pretty strong stuff (and almost certainly correct.)

Further down he has:

Now, on the free site yesterday I caught a video showing the great global temperature collapse on the way. Can it be any more obvious that the oceans control the thermostat? We watched the Nino come on, and what happen to the Earth’s temperatures… they rose in RESPONSE, after the nino set in! Now the La Nina is coming on, and guess what… down it goes… Look at this:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbT2mSea.gif

It’s shooting fish in the barrel. The fact that we are switching into the cold PDO and the La Ninas outgunning the El Ninos will be a way of life for the next 30 years should speak volumes to anyone that simply uses logic and common sense.

Lord help us if the sun doesn’t wake up, or Arctic volcanoes are going off. Part of the extreme reaction you may be seeing is in response to the volcanoes of two winters ago in Siberia and Alaska (it takes five years for its response to mature) and of course Mr. Sun, which in spite of the best efforts of NASA, is still pretty much asleep. Sure there are sunspots, but their intensity is way, way down. It’s akin to snow flurries in winter… not a big snowstorm (in this case, sun storm).

So we’ve got the PDO la Niña thing going on, and 3 more years of growing impact from Russian and Alaskan volcanoes (with Icelandic and South American volcanoes adding some too…)

I suggest hanging out at Joe’s site from time to time, especially if you care about the weather and getting it right.

But Is It Only Joe?

Tallbloke has an interesting predictive model here:

http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2010/01/05/my-simple-solar-planetary-energy-model/

Given the sleeping sun, to the extent Tallbloke is right, there is a lot of cold on the way. There is a time lag as the oceans are loaded with / emptied of, heat. So since 1998 we’ve been dumping the excess, now it’s time for the air temps to start catching up with the heat flow.

And if these guys are right:

http://journalofcosmology.com/ClimateChange111.html

It’s likely to stay that way for 30 years or more.

Add in the prediction by Habibullo Abdussamatov, the head of space research at St. Petersburg’s Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia; and we’re getting a common theme going on here.

See his talk in the links at this site:

http://www.wnd.com/?pageId=155225

I think there is sufficient pattern developing to embrace this notion of a very cold decade or three on the way.

What To Do?

Well, first off, I’d stop any residual worry about “Global Warming” and I’d prepare to go short any trade that depends on it.

Shortly after that, I’d focus on a personal preparation strategy ( helpful hints under the “Emergency Preparation and Risks” category on the right edge) and make sure I was not living in a flood plane or a very heavy snow area. Unless, of course, I liked living with excessive snow…

Then after that, I’d start planing to own land in more tropical or warmer locations. Cold winters will whack winter wheat and barley crops in Canada and Russia more than sugarcane in Brazil or Mexican soybeans. (No, I’m not planing to move this year… I talking about things like CZZ Cozan where you can buy shares on an exchange).

If a load of folks are betting on ‘hotter’ and it’s really going to be colder, you have a market inefficiency to exploit. Just remember that the market will go “the wrong way” up until it is impossible to ignore it, and only THEN will the reverse trade make money. It’s important to be right when everyone else is wrong, but it’s more important to only put the trade on just before the big money realizes it’s wrong ;-)

There are other trades available (such as the road salt makers) but those will have to wait “for the fullness of time”. For now, the prediction of a warm summer by Joe for the N. hemisphere locations implies there is plenty of time to watch the situation develop.

Yeah, a very long lead time on this call…