Tips & Notices – April 2019

About “Tips”:

While I’m mostly interested in things having to do with:

Computer stuff, especially small single board computers
Making money, usually via trading
Weather and climate (“Global Warming” & “Climate Change”)
Quakes, Volcanoes, and other Earth Sciences
Current economic and political events
(often as those last three have impact on money and climate things…)
And just about any ‘way cool’ interesting science or technology
Oh, and lately, cars &
numerical computing / graphing with languages like Python & Julia ;-)

If something else is interesting to you, put a “tip” here as you like.

If there is a current Hot Topic for active discussion, try one of the Weekly Occasional Open Discussion pages here:

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/category/w-o-o-d/

You can also look at the list of “Categories” on the right hand side and get an idea of any other broad area of interest.

This ought not to be seen as a “limit” on what is “interesting”, more as a “focus list” with other things that are interesting being fair game as well.

The History:

Note that “pages” are the things reached from links on the top bar just under the pretty picture. “Postings” are reached from the listing along the right side of any given article (posting).

Since WordPress has decided that comments on Pages, like the Old Tips Pages, won’t show up in recent comments, it kind of breaks the value of it for me. In response, I shifted from a set of “pages” to a set of “postings”. As any given Tips Posting gets full, I’ll add a new one.

I have kept the same general format, with the T page (top bar) still pointing to both the archive of Tips Pages as well as the series of new Postings via a link to the TIPS category.

This is the next posting from prior Tips postings. Same idea, just a new set of space to put pointers to things of interest. The most immediately preceding Tips posting is:
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2019/03/04/tips-notices-march-2019/
.

The generic “T” parent page remains up top, where older copies of the various “Tips” pages can be found archived. The Tips category (see list at right) marks Tips postings for easy location.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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43 Responses to Tips & Notices – April 2019

  1. Pouncer says:

    So, science is NOT settled. Scientists claim that under certain conditions, light travels faster than, er, uhm … well, light.

    https://phys.org/news/2019-04-researchers-develop-way-to-control.html

    “Abouraddy and study co-author Esat Kondakci demonstrated they could speed a pulse of light up to 30 times the speed of light, slow it down to half the speed of light, and also make the pulse travel backward. … ‘We’re able to control the speed of the pulse by going into the pulse itself and reorganizing its energy such that its space and time degrees of freedom are mixed in with each other,’ Abouraddy said.”

    This is so weird I can’t even figure out what it means.

  2. E.M.Smith says:

    I think they are saying they’ve got a trick that lets you swap space for time… which if true starts to make all sorts of exotic Sci Fi a possible…. Can you say “static warp field” Scotty?

  3. llanfar says:

    @Pouncer reminds me of Heinlein’s book The Fifth Column…

  4. E.M.Smith says:

    Digging into it… it isn’t the LIGHT that moves FTL but the focal point…

    https://phys.org/news/2018-11-focus-lasers-space.html

    A “flying focus” combines a lens that focuses specific colors of light at different locations with the recent Nobel Prize winning chirped-pulse amplification technology, which organizes the colors of light in time. Imagine a laser producing a continuously changing rainbow of colors that start with blue and end with red. Now focus the light with a lens that concentrates the red light close to the lens and blue light much farther from the lens. Because of the time delay between the colors, the high-intensity focal point moves. By changing the time delay separating the different colors, this spot can be made to move at any speed.

    “The flying focus turns out to be super powerful,” said Dustin Froula, the Plasma Physics Group Leader at the University of Rochester’s Laboratory for Laser Energetics. “It allows us to generate high intensities over hundreds of times the distance than we could before and at any speed. We’re now trying to make the next generation of high-powered lasers and flying focus could be that enabling technology.” His team, supported by the Department of Energy Office of Fusion Energy Sciences, will be presenting this research at the upcoming American Physical Society’s Division of Plasma Physics meeting in Portland, Ore.

    “Our group set out to design an experiment that would measure the propagation of a focal spot at any velocity, including 50 times the speed of light. This required a new diagnostic that could make a movie with frames separated by a trillionth of a second,” Froula said.

    So, OK, that’s a nice trick but it isn’t light going “at any speed” it is the spot where the focus lands that is being moved – a non-physical thing.

    There’s a nitrogen laser uses a similar trick. Take a metal plate and cut a groove in the middle. Fill it with nitrogen. Dump a pulse of electrons into one corner. They spread out at the speed of light (more or less) in a circle BUT the arrival of that circle at the groove with the nitrogen channel propagates along the channel at FTL because it isn’t a physical thing but the mathematical property of the arrival time of the light speed circle at a line.

    This it turns out is a feature as the gas at the arrival point at one end begins to emit photons from the electrical stress. Some travel down the column of gas and arrive at the next spot just AFTER the charge made it ready to emit light, so you get Light Amplification By Stimulated Emission of Radiation as the first photons pick up some friends. Continue to the other end of the channel where a “broom stick sized chunk of light” flies out the end. No mirrors needed…

    At no time does any THING travel FTL, but an effect propagates FTL.

  5. E.M.Smith says:

    Looking for that asserted full wikileaks drop, I ran into this, that claims to be Hillary’s emails:
    https://qnation.us/wikileaks-just-dumped-clinton-emails-bon-appetit/

    Has a nice panel of political cartoons on the side that changes every few seconds…

  6. E.M.Smith says:

    This looks to be a pointer
    https://v.8ch.net/pol/res/13117850.html

    WIKILEAKS DROP Anonymous 04/12/19 (Fri) 03:42:49 fe63fa No.13117850>>13118312 >>13118436 >>13118784 >>13118810 >>13120311 >>13120415 >>13120472 >>13121119 >>13122344 >>13122583 [Watch Thread][Show All Posts]

    4chan erased the Madelian Mccain foundation drop for a reason.

    Here are the others

    -Clinton e-mails

    -CIA active operations

    -Coca-cola geting cover after killing 10 kids

    -Steve Jobs had AIDS

    – Offshore accounts from politician all over the world(find your country)

    – Races crimes against White being cover all around the EU

    -White genocide not that much of a conspiracy theorie

    -Merkel avoiding taxes

    -FBI pedophile symbols

    And much more

    https://file.wikileaks.org/file/?fbclid=IwAR11eCRNWsKE1rGAlL3f0qgJPzOi18XWNwhahmvnkto8DSX_R5Ojo-yyVUE

    Torrent

    https://file.wikileaks.org/file.torrent

    https://file.wikileaks.org/torrent/2016-06-03_insurance.aes256.torrent

    https://file.wikileaks.org/torrent/wikileaks-insurance-20120222.tar.bz2.aes.torrent

    https://file.wikileaks.org/torrent/wlinsurance-20130815-A.aes256.torrent

    https://file.wikileaks.org/torrent/wlinsurance-20130815-B.aes256.torrent

    https://file.wikileaks.org/torrent/wlinsurance-20130815-C.aes256.torrent

    https://archive.org/download/wlinsurance/wlinsurance_archive.torrent

    https://archive.org/download/wlinsurance

    https://web.archive.org/web/20100901195032/http://leakmirror.wikileaks.org/file/straw-glass-and-bottle/insurance.aes256

    If you have some 90 gigs to spare, download the first link especially. If you care about this world at all.

    Further reading:

    https://steemit.com/wikileaks/@ausbitbank/how-to-download-the-wikileaks-archives-insurance-files-email-leaks-for-safe-keeping

  7. Another Ian says:

    What odds that Wikileaks has the “really, really good bits” as insurance?

  8. H.R. says:

    @Another Ian – I was under the impression that this release was the insurance policy. But now that you bring it up, he may have saved the most damning MOAR (Mother Of All Releases) as a get-out-of-jail-free card in the event someone entertains the idea of silencing him… permanently.

    I would think he is still holding a “If I’m going down, you are all going down” file with a dead man’s switch.

  9. E.M.Smith says:

    The insurance files are encrypted. The “juicy bits” are already out there so propagation can’t be blocked during a “take down” or as now, an arrest. The “deadman switch” is on release of the decryption key….The way I’d do that is a $10 / year almost no use “cloud” VM (likely several in different countries) that wakes up once a year and listens for me. IF I reply, it goes back to sleep. If no reply inside, say, a month, then it posts the decryption key to dozens of sites, boards, and emails it to “a cast of thousands”…

    Further, I’d add a layer of backup sites that I NEVER connect with. They would look for the primaries to still be up and alive. IFF the primaries are down, they launch the key release. In this way watching my traffic can’t let you find the deadman switch sites (not that knowing one was in Russia and another in China and a third in Iran would help the USA… ;-) This layer would connect through TOR and VPN to double mask IP of origin… (as would I, when doing my check in once / year… from a dedicated tablet used for NOTHING else from a public WiFi hot spot…)

    I’d likely also have a “trusted person” who could release it if all tech methods failed.

  10. Larry Ledwick says:

    Personally I suspect that the book he was clutching as he was arrested by Gore Vidal was a signal to his supporters, that might trigger a certain release or pause a dead man release.

    There is also the possibility that his arrest and eventual extradition to the US could actually be a form or protective custody. Given all the damage he has done to HRC and Bill, and other under rock dwelling types he probably had a date with an unfortunate accident planned by them if he ever just walked free of the embassy.

    Knowing President Trump’s proven belief in pay back for dirty deeds done to him and family, if JA has the right goods, I would bet he would be offered a pardon / asylum deal if he helps permanently takes down the Dems and HRC.

    Remember when he was asked why he had not released any dirt on Trump his response was “there isn’t any” that implies he is an honest broker in that regard and would be seen as a natural ally by Trump.

  11. p.g.sharrow says:

    PROFECIAS DE NOSTRADAMUS

    Michel de Notre-Dame!!!
    ” Un símbolo de la cristiandad en Francia o España arderá en fuego purificador ”

    Nuestra Señora llorará por todos nosotros y brillará en la lejanía.
    Con la entrada de la primavera una iglesia arderá en fuego, una gran Iglesia de todos los tiempos se quemará por los pecadores.

    El fuego quemará los símbolos que se han utilizado para el ego de los hombres y no en el nombre de Jesús.

    En Francia, España o Italia arderán las cúpulas para purificarse.

    Una gran iglesia se quemará para traer buenas nuevas.
    Prophecies of nostradamus

    Michel of Notre-Dame!!!
    “a symbol of Christianity in France or Spain will burn in purifying fire”

    Our lady will cry for all of us and shine in the distance.
    With the entrance of spring a church will burn in fire, a great church of all time will burn for sinners.

    The fire will burn the symbols that have been used for the ego of men and not in the name of Jesus.

    In France, Spain or Italy will burn the domes to purify themselves.

    “A great church will burn to bring good new ones.”

    The above is not my translation, just something that was brought to my attention by an old friend
    Once again Michel points out a signpost in the grand progression of time…pg

  12. E.M.Smith says:

    @P.G.:

    I thought the quatrains were in old French. That looks more Spanish to me… (Though I have a bit of trouble separating old forms of Romance Languages as they tend to converge eventually to Latin; and since I can read it anyway it is a bit mooted… more a “what was that language you just read?” thing.)

    It IS a bit spooky, then again, many churches have burned over the centuries. IIRC the one in Venice posted a comment they they had burned twice and recovered each time so Notre Dame ought to as well.

  13. cdquarles says:

    Hmm, Tuscan? I once saw some quotes that looked more French than Spanish or Italian to me; and those were Tuscan.

  14. E.M.Smith says:

    @CDQuarles:

    Then there’s Provençal… that grades into Catalan… and a few Italian dialects and.. I once found I could kind of read Romanian…

    I spent a while reading about the different minor Romance languages and learned a bit of Portuguese (after catching a flight from Florida back to California and finding a magazine, reading some about Brazil, thinking it a bit “off” for Spanish and realizing the flight originated in Brazil and it was Brazilian Protuguese).

    For many of them it is just a question of how much Latin was preserved, how much Celtic base was carried over from the original inhabitants (and mainland Celtic was very similar to old Latin anyway) and how much admixture of “a bit of something else” happened. So Spanish has some Arabic in it. Portuguese a different bit. French has more Celtic and German in it (those auxiliary verbs…) and Romanian has a bit of Slavic bleed in. Then how many old forms were retained. So once you’ve learned a core (for me, both Spanish & French) then it tends to just be some “odd bits” that you can often read around and get most of it.

    After a while I tends (at least for me) to become sort of a Romance Language Stew and any of it works in various combinations… IIRC Occitan (root of Provençal.and Catalan) has fewer Arabic bits than Spanish and more older forms that French. Still, it’s a pretty language that I can sort of read (some guessing on some old bits for fine meaning, some words alien).

    If I had to place that quote in one, I’d choose Spanish. Perhaps an old style of Spanish. I’ve read many of the quatrains in French and they were clearly French, if again an old form of it. Hombres and Nuestra Señora are pretty strong indicators ;-)

    Wonder what google translate will call it… back in a mo’…

    Yeah, it says “Spanish Detected” too…

  15. Alexander MCCLINTOCK says:

    In case it did not make the news in the USA ;)
    IPA’s press release
    https://ipa.org.au/publications-ipa/peter-ridd-wins-biggest-victory-on-free-speech-in-a-generation

    I’m here in Brisbane where I’ve spent the day with Peter Ridd, Stuart Wood QC and John Roskam. A few minutes ago we heard that Peter has won his case. Judge Salvatore Vasta has found that all decisions made by James Cook University against Peter – including his sacking – were unlawful. You can see the judge’s decision here.

    We’ll have more to say about this decision in the coming days but for now you can read the IPA’s media release here.

    In the next few months, we’ll be back in court to argue for Peter’s job.

    This is a wonderful victory for freedom of speech on climate change. Thank you to the thousands of people who have supported Peter’s case and thank you to the wonderful work of Stuart Wood QC, Ben Kidson, Ben Jellis and Mitchell Downes and Amelia Hasson at Mahoney’s.

    Thank you once again for your support.

    regards,
    Gideon

  16. Another Ian says:

    “New app delivers automated local weather feeds on Bitcoin SV chain”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/04/17/new-app-delivers-automated-local-weather-feeds-on-bitcoin-sv-chain/

  17. sabretoothed says:

    What apparently happened, is that the wildlife geniuses and experts of “Our Planet”, managed with their drones to drive the walruses into a panic. Right over the cliff.

    THE “OUR PLANET” TEAM PROBABLY REALIZED IT, AFTER IT HAPPENED

    The drone or drones go up and the walruses go over the cliff. This is fairly straightforward.

    But yet, Global Warming got blamed by the drone masters.

    It’s bad enough the series’ experts and film crew apparently killed the walruses through negligence.

    But to add insult to injury, they then blamed it on “Global Warming.” As the political Left always says: “Never let a good disaster go to waste.”

    https://climatechangedispatch.com/our-planet-spook-walrus-cliffs/?fbclid=IwAR3vrqCXl4P3jfUs292RYxABQWb2wD6fHEQw904Xg1yje0WERA_SrdO-JBE

  18. sabretoothed says:

    One of biggest diseases in USA, mostly not even diagnosed

  19. Another Ian says:
  20. tom0mason says:

    I’m indebted to Euan Mearns’ (http://euanmearns.com/ )Energy Matters blog for this interesting video.

    This video will probably make the Greenies heads explode, more cows (and their farts) equates to a better carbon cycling, less desert, and a greener planet. And this is not a theory, Allan Savory has done it, and has evidence of its worth.

    How to reduce desertification using livestock.

  21. E.M.Smith says:

    @tom0mason:

    Yeah, I ran into that simple truth a year or two back. Forget where, but I think it was some TV documentary. Guy takes two fields, runs cattle on one, not on the other. One with cattle does a LOT better…. one without slowly loses fertility and desertifies…

  22. p.g.sharrow says:

    For 80 years the intelligentsia have taught that grazers cause erosion and desertification. Eliminate grazing and the world would return to being a park like Paradise. Well they got their Paradise! Massive destruction in Paradise caused by fire and flood because they KNEW all the wrong answers. The old timers ran cattle and sheep and used the timber and wood, generally with wisdom to conserve those renewing resources and burning off the waste as it accumulated. Now it is all PRESERVED from use until it all explodes in a holocaust…pg.

  23. Steve C says:

    Principia Scientific has a fascinating introduction to (yet another!) form of ice – Ice XVIII or “superionic ice”. Increase water’s pressure to millions of atmospheres and its temperature to thousands of degrees and, bizarrely, it freezes into hot black stuff … which *may* be at the core of numerous astronomical bodies. Water is weird.
    https://principia-scientific.org/a-bizarre-form-of-water-may-exist-all-over-the-universe/

  24. LG says:

    Contrary to Global Warming predictions, chlorophyll in the southern ocean is on the rise.

    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL083163

    Abstract
    The Southern Ocean is a key player in regulating the planet’s biogeochemistry, productivity, and climate. Ocean color data from two NASA satellites show statistically significant increases in the concentration of chlorophyll in all sectors of the Southern Ocean, particularly in the Sub‐Antarctic Zone and Permanently Open Ocean Zone. The smallest changes were observed in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Sub‐Tropical Zone. These trends seem accentuated by higher chlorophyll concentrations during the austral winter. Increases in the annual and wintertime chlorophyll concentrations can have implications for the Southern Ocean biological pump and ocean productivity and higher trophic levels.

    Plain Language Summary
    The Southern Ocean is getting greener because the amount of marine plants (phytoplankton) has been increasing in the last 21 years. These changes appear to be happening faster during the winter, which suggests that the growing season is getting longer. This is important because the Southern Ocean has a big role in the biology and chemistry of the oceans, and in regulating the Earth’s climate. This work was done using 21 years of data from two NASA satellites.

  25. Bruce Ryan says:

    I happened to hear a podcast by Scott Adams where he interviewed a medical company chief discussing developments in gene science. The upshot was that it’s becoming possible to understand what medical conditions a person will have or likely get in their lives. To the extent that insurance companies will insist on knowing your genetic makeup in order to provide you insurance. Adams then exclaimed that this would be the end of private insurance since a large part of the population would now face exorbitant rates or be uninsurable.
    This seems logical to me. So we may be looking at a big change in medical services relatively soon, despite what are the wishes of society.
    Generally, though the increased knowledge of a person’s health’s strengths or weaknesses would be a good thing.

  26. Hi EM — Any comments or advice you can offer on the following would be most welcome.
    I typically read your site first thing every morning on my iPad in bed with my early morning tea. I’m in France and my ISP is Orange (formerly France Telecom). About a month or so ago I started to get pop-up ads on the screen inviting me to participate in a survey about Orange and my views on it and to have a chance to win a Samsung phone, iPhone XS or an iPad Pro. At first these pop-ups came complete with a ‘go away’ ‘x’ in the top right corner. I dismissed them maybe a dozen or 20 times till finally I gave in, completed the survey (inc name, address, phone number and email), agreed to pay Euro 2.20 via my phone bill and thought no more about it (though, 10 days later, no prize has arrived, of course). But then things turned nasty. I had assumed that, as soon as I’d completed the survey they would stop bothering me; they did, after all say that I was one of 100 users (chosen at random, one supposes). But I was wrong. Each morning when I went to your site, up popped this damned Orange survey. With one significant change. No ‘x’ in the top right hand corner of the pop-up, so no way to close it. I had no option to click the OK button. I could then close the survey form, but that also bumped me right off your site!
    I called Orange support line. No, they had never heard of the survey, no it certainly wasn’t them, perhaps it was WordPress doing it — reading my IP address and popping in an ad for a French company, they said. So I asked the operator where she was, ‘Tunis’ she said. Clearly above her pay grade. So I hung up.
    Next, I went to look at the survey form. It said it came from ‘svip-center.com’ So a quick search on DDG pointed me to a US software company called NGINX, of whom I had never heard. Their website said they were now part of F5 (never heard of them either), which didn’t help much. That’s as far as I got. Though I did send a message on NGINX.com complaining. And subsequently got an email from ‘NODE 13’ (sic) that I had requested and been unsubscribed from ‘protectorsofliberty’ Whether this was related or coincidence. God only knows.
    I thought to send this screed to you as I am effectively now locked out of your site (I’m writing this on an R Pi). I believe you have other readers in France. Do you know if they’ve had similar problems? How do we take this forward? Indeed, how do we kick these people where it hurts (which they richly deserve!).
    Best regards, Richard Bellew

  27. Simon Derricutt says:

    Richard – I’m also in France and with Orange. Also I use a netbook to read this site, though Android-based. ISTR such adverts, and no “dismiss” cross, but either a minimise/restore or a reload got rid of it. You may recall EM warned against clicking on any such advert (even to dismiss it) since such a click may be construed as “giving permission” for something you’re not being made aware of, so I’ve used this way to dismiss pop-ups (on the netbook and Android phone) for quite a while.

    Recently there’s been a spurt of spam emails purporting to be from Orange, LeClerc, Lidl etc. offering some goodies in exchange for completing a survey, and the web address pointing to somewhere in California. They seem to have stopped now, and instead I’m starting to get a few from individuals which might seem kosher to some people.

    Basic rule though is that if you’re not sure who it’s from, or there’s something off about it, don’t click through. Sounds like *something* has been installed on your iPad, and you need to weed it out to stop it popping up. Clear all cookies, maybe, or clear all history, and raise the stakes (up to clean reinstall) until it’s gone.

  28. Larry Ledwick says:

    Artifact of the auto shutter and a really bright object and a lot of much darker background the camera sensor could not make up its mind what exposure was correct – Not none of the people in the crowd reacted in any way to the apparent pulsing seen in the video.

    If it had really been pulsing for the people in the crowd you would have seen total chaos, not passive indifference.

  29. LG says:

    In Case Anyone had not yet seen this:

    CONFESSIONS OF CLIMATE SCIENTIST

    https://notrickszone.com/2019/09/14/scientists-confession-climate-models-have-serious-flaws-confident-others-will-speak-up-on-fraudulent-claims/

    An eye-opener book by Japanese MIT climate scientist now partly available in English at Kindle.

    MIT climate scientist Dr. Mototaka Nakamura’s writes global warming data are “untrustworthy”, “falsified”. Image: http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/

    Not long ago we reported on a recently released book authored by Dr. Mototaka Nakamura, a scientist who received his doctorate from MIT and worked at NASA: “Confessions of a climate scientist The global warming hypothesis is an unproven hypothesis“.

    After that post, I personally urged Dr. Nakamura to write the book in English.

    Today I am very pleased to announce that a newly released Kindle version is now available with the important parts in English. You can download it for free for a limited time.

    Please do download it! The English parts are within the Japanese text.

    “Untrustworthy” and “falsified” data

    In the book Dr. Nakamura writes how in the 1980s he became “seriously concerned about the predicted ‘catastrophic global warming due to the increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere’” and how the issue motivated him to study the atmospheric and oceanic sciences at the North Carolina State University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and to become a climate scientist.

    Ironically, rather than finding any robust scientific basis underpinning the hypothesis, Dr. Nakamura wound discovering just how “untrustworthy” and “falsified” the data behind global warming really are.

    “We also do not know for certain how the earth’ s climate has changed in the past 100 years or longer, although we do know well how regional climate has changed in limited regions, such as Europe, North America, and some parts of Asia,” he writes. “A quasi-global observation system has been operating only for 50 years or so, since the advent of artificial satellite observation. Temperature data before then were collected over extremely small (with respect to the earth’ s entire surface area) areas and, thus, have severe spatial bias.”

    Confident other scientists will speak up on “fraudulent claims”

    On whether other scientists will speak up, Nakamura wrote that he is confident that “some honest and courageous true climate scientists will continue to publicly point out the made by the ‘mainstream climate science community’”.

    As an expert, Dr. Nakamura also believes that the climate simulation models used for climate change predictions have two “serious flaws” among many. One “fatally serious flaw” is the oceanic component of the models and the “grossly oversimplified and problematic representations of the atmospheric water vapor”.

    Nothing except a propaganda tool

    Dr. Nakamura concludes that the “global surface mean temperature change data no longer have any scientific value and are nothing except a propaganda tool to the public.”

    EXCERPTS:

    Now Nakamura has found it again, further accusing the orthodox scientists of “data falsification” by adjusting previous temperature data to increase apparent warming “The global surface mean temperature-change data no longer have any scientific value and are nothing except a propaganda tool to the public,” he writes.

    The climate models are useful tools for academic studies, he says. However, “the models just become useless pieces of junk or worse (worse in a sense that they can produce gravely misleading output) when they are used for climate forecasting.” The reason:

    These models completely lack some critically important climate processes and feedbacks, and represent some other critically important climate processes and feedbacks in grossly distorted manners to the extent that makes these models totally useless for any meaningful climate prediction.

    I myself used to use climate simulation models for scientific studies, not for predictions, and learned about their problems and limitations in the process.

    Ignoring non-CO2 climate determinants

    Climate forecasting is simply impossible, if only because future changes in solar energy output are unknowable. As to the impacts of human-caused CO2, they can’t be judged “with the knowledge and technology we currently possess.”

    Other gross model simplifications include

    # Ignorance about large and small-scale ocean dynamics

    # A complete lack of meaningful representations of aerosol changes that generate clouds.

    # Lack of understanding of drivers of ice-albedo (reflectivity) feedbacks: “Without a reasonably accurate representation, it is impossible to make any meaningful predictions of climate variations and changes in the middle and high latitudes and thus the entire planet.”

    # Inability to deal with water vapor elements

    # Arbitrary “tunings” (fudges) of key parameters that are not understood

    Concerning CO2 changes he says,

    I want to point out a simple fact that it is impossible to correctly predict even the sense or direction of a change of a system when the prediction tool lacks and/or grossly distorts important non-linear processes, feedbacks in particular, that are present in the actual system …

    … The real or realistically-simulated climate system is far more complex than an absurdly simple system simulated by the toys that have been used for climate predictions to date, and will be insurmountably difficult for those naïve climate researchers who have zero or very limited understanding of geophysical fluid dynamics. I understand geophysical fluid dynamics just a little, but enough to realize that the dynamics of the atmosphere and oceans are absolutely critical facets of the climate system if one hopes to ever make any meaningful prediction of climate variation.

    Solar input, absurdly, is modelled as a “never changing quantity”. He says, “It has only been several decades since we acquired an ability to accurately monitor the incoming solar energy. In these several decades only, it has varied by one to two watts per square metre. Is it reasonable to assume that it will not vary any more than that in the next hundred years or longer for forecasting purposes? I would say, No.”

  30. LG says:

    FYI.
    Pelosi’s Pre-Planned, Lawfare-Assisted Impeachment Plan

    Via ZEROHEDGE,

    Back in December 2018 CTH noted the significant House rule changes constructed by Nancy Pelosi for the 116th congress seemed specifically geared toward impeachment. With the House going into a scheduled calendar recess, those rules are now being used to subvert historic processes and construct the articles of impeachment.

    A formal vote to initiate an “impeachment inquiry” is not technically required; however, there has always been a full house vote until now. The reason not to have a House vote is simple: if the formal process was followed the minority (republicans) would have enforceable rights within it. Without a vote to initiate, the articles of impeachment can be drawn up without any participation by the minority; and without any input from the executive. This was always the plan that was visible in Pelosi’s changed House rules.

    Keep in mind Speaker Pelosi selected former insider DOJ official Douglas Letter to be the Chief Legal Counsel for the House. That becomes important when we get to the part about the official full house impeachment vote. The Lawfare group and DNC far-left activists were ecstatic at the selection. Doug Letter was a deep political operative within the institution of the DOJ who worked diligently to promote the weaponized political values of former democrat administrations.

    Speaker Pelosi has authorized the House committees to work together under the umbrella of an “official impeachment inquiry.” The House Intelligence (Schiff) and Judiciary Committees (Nadler) are currently working together leading this process.

    The Democrats are going to act fast. Remember, by design Speaker Pelosi has this set up so that Republicans don’t even participate in the impeachment process. There are no republicans participating in the assembly of the articles of impeachment. Stunningly, and as an outcome of those earlier rule changes, there is no minority voice in this process.

    When the 116th congress returns from their break on October 15th, 2019, the Articles of Impeachment will have already been assembled:

    Speaker Pelosi has to give the media some reference point to say the republicans were included in the process, so she will likely have mid to late October destined for the committee chairs to have committee debate on their pre-assembled articles. This will give the impression of minority participation, but it will be for optics only.

    Democrats are keen optical strategists and narrative engineers; and as you know they coordinate all endeavors with their media allies. The narrative assembly and usefulness by media to drive a tactical national political message will hit heavily in this mid/late October time-frame. This will allow the executive suites (media) to capture/stir-up maximum public interest and make the most money therein.

    There will likely be more articles other than just “obstruction of justice” (Muh Rusia) and “corruption of office” (Muh Ukraine), but those two are easily visible. Emoluments may also play a role.

    The articles of impeachment will then be voted out of each committee; and after a significant dramatic pause for maximum political value, Speaker Pelosi will present days of House debate on them.

    The media will construct television sets to broadcast the house impeachment debates, and the Democrat candidates will use this time to spotlight their angelic policies and anti-corruption agenda. Big Dollar Democrats will bring in their activist groups from around the nation to celebrate the impeachment of President Trump.

    Then, once Pelosi is certain the maximum political benefit has been achieved, she will announce the date for the Full House Vote on Articles of Impeachment. We can be certain the date will be filled with maximum drama and made-for-tv effect complete with Speaker Pelosi bringing back the big gavel for a grand presentation and a full house vote.

    [Chad Pergram] As always, it’s about math. The current House breakdown is 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans, and one independent: Rep. Justin Amash, I-Mich. To pass anything in the House, 218 yeas are needed.

    That means Democrats can only lose 17 votes from their side and still have enough to pass an article of impeachment. Amash has endorsed impeachment, so let’s say the magic number is actually 16. If the president is to be impeached, that means Democrats could have 15 of their own voting for articles of impeachment while representing a district which Trump carried in 2016.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/how-gop-will-answer-pelosis-pre-planned-lawfare-assisted-impeachment-plan

  31. Simon Derricutt says:

    Some interesting information on the health effects of wind turbines at https://revolution-green.com/wind-turbine-noise-health-issues/ . Donald is an interesting guy, and invented a process to make instant cheese (well at least it only takes a few days to produce the same results as 6 months), and has been campaigning against windfarms based on the the number of birds killed. Seems there are other problems, too. Sorry, bit of a long read….

  32. E.M.Smith says:

    @Simon:

    Both the Spouse and myself have noticed that some cars give us headaches and “bad feelings” and tiredness from low frequency sound. We call it a “wobbly head” as it feels like the head is slightly vibrating. First figured out the cause when test driving a FORD van. It was pronounced enough to be obvious. Later found that the domestic makers (FORD & GM at least) had a target of 25 Hz for the resonate frequency of their tin boxes…

    That was a big part of what moved me into the Mercedes world. LOTS more emphasis on vibration and sound elimination and less on “move it to where you don’t hear it”…

    I then noticed that a local cafe had a badly mounted roof AC system and the space also tended to a “wobbly head” and it was so strong I could not finish a meal in the space. (That particular building seems to change occupants every year or two… Nice location off the freeway, but folks just don’t keep coming in…)

    Since then we’ve also noticed some fans causing the same problem. Headaches as the worst effect (so far).

    So that “infra-sound” being hurtful is spot-on.

  33. Simon Derricutt says:

    EM – I’ve also had that “I don’t want to be in this car” feeling and so what Donald found out does make sense, and probably applies to quite a few other things than wind turbines. I’ve also been in one supermarket that I just didn’t want to stay in any longer than the minimum, and left my wife to do her thing in there and waited outside (in the rain) while she shopped.

    Probably a good idea to try to spread the knowledge, since it may reach someone who has the capability of changing what’s installed. Also useful when buying a house, of course – not just the absence of windfarms nearby, but also getting the A/C and other air movement systems checked for infrasound.

  34. Larry Ledwick says:

    Speaking of infrasound, how about magnetic oscillations.
    If you feel a bit off today, the earth is getting buffeted by a strong solar wind produced by a large coronal hole pointed in the earths direction.

    I had great difficulty getting to sleep last night for no apparent reason, I wanted to get up and do things at 3:00 am – wonder if magnetic effects might explain.

    Would also be worth watching what the weather does in the next few days.

  35. Larry Ledwick says:

    Some earthquake activity in Chili today

    Prelim M7.2 Earthquake Off the coast of Maule, Chile Sep-29 15:57 UTC, updates https://go.usa.gov/xVGYn

  36. Larry Ledwick says:

    Oh goody, new problems with Boeing aircraft

    737-Max is in MUCH deeper shit then everybody though[t]. Besides the rudder trim (MCAS) issue and some Slat actuator defects that were found, the FAA is sitting on an issue that can potentially take all 737s to the scrapyard. Inspections found critical wing mount attachments CRACKED

  37. E.M.Smith says:

    Wonder if the solar wind thing might explain some network issues I’ve been seeing….

  38. Larry Ledwick says:

    https://kdvr.com/2019/09/29/spacex-unveils-rocket-designed-to-get-to-mars-and-back/

    Musk introduces the SpaceX Starship rocket in Texas and predicts they will be making first manned flights in about a year.

    Has embedded video interview.

    Interesting comments on his shift to steel construction vs carbon fiber.

  39. Simon Derricutt says:

    EM – I placed the last tip/link in Tips because it seemed to fit better than WOOD. Maybe this one is better here than WOOD, too: https://revolution-green.com/another-day-work/
    I think I’ve finally dug down to the underlying reason we think heat can’t be recycled into useful energy (though of course heat on a cold night is also useful). It’s in the basic definition of heat as being a scalar, when it must be carried by a particle and, in order to have kinetic energy, that particle must have momentum which is a vector. The other little problem is that because the momentum vectors average to zero for heat, it’s thought that that means there is no momentum vector and thus heat is a scalar. Basically, losing information by taking an average, and forgetting that an average of zero doesn’t mean it’s actually zero at all scales and timescales.
    Since we only need to change the momentum of that KE, that makes the problem pretty easy to solve in theory. Of course, if you regard heat as a scalar, it’s obvious that you couldn’t change its direction since it doesn’t have a direction. It’s all in the language and definitions. Of course, it remains technically a bit hard to do once you consider the momentum vector of heat, but not impossible.

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