It is rather strange to me that when I listen to the Russians, they are more logical and rational than those who claim to speak for The West. Never mind that Biden is senile and Camel-Ah cackles and says nothing, and that Ursula is just evil and manipulative. No, I’m talking about “the content of their characters” and their utterances, not their warped and distorted utterances.
It is really a very simple point. When I listen to the Russians, what they say is direct, clear, and aligned with what I personally have observed. There is no bluff, no mis-direction. The answer to questions is often a bit long and nuanced, but reality is in fact long and nuanced. (Westerners tend to the “simple, obvious, and wrong” and often with a political manipulative misdirection as well.)
So here’s the Russian Foreign Minister talking in India about just what’s going on now. The simple logical coherence of it is a pleasure.
The “hook” in this bit is that FM Lavrov talks about ‘the war launched against Russia’ and the crowed laughs… yet in 2014 with the USA CIA led coup in Ukraine is the moment that this phase of the War Against Russia was launched….
Folks who have followed me here for a while know that ‘one of my things’ was a muse about what language was the best at logical and coherent thought; and that my conclusion was “whatever language was your first as you know all its quirks” since all languages have a boat load of “strange bits”.
I’ve now come to realize that a big part of it is NOT the “language” per se, but the “cultural context” of the language. All that “crap” that is the social milieu of propaganda, “social networking” and more. i.e. the context, not the medium.
Oh Well…. Only about 20 years of pondering down the tubes… but at least I have my answers.
Yes, manipulating the language can color the thoughts, and yes, some languages are a bit more prone to “logical rigor” than others; but all of them are riddled with the weaknesses of human nature, the drift and corruption of change (both random and capricious as well as directed and manipulative / evil). But LOGIC and REASON are not tied to any one language. And similarly neither are manipulation and confusion.
Keeping a tidy mind is an exercise in patience and control in any language.
Filter out the crap. Test the remainder. Connect the dots to prior reason. Mark things for degree of veracity. Save the best bits. Integrate and assess. Then and only then, draw conclusions.
There’s another posting in the works. “Are ‘we’ the baddies?” that looks at how The West is apparently the source of evil. What this moment is about is how Russian leaders have been quite rational whenever I’ve heard one of their speeches. in English or in Russian.
Russia will “win” in Ukraine. They have no choice but to win. Whatever it takes. “The West” is trying to stir up a second front in Georgia. That will fail. China and Russia have recognized they have a common ‘enemy’ and have joined forces. The West is losing, badly, to the BRICS consortium (adding dozens of new members – it seems that if you piss on enough countries they all like to huddle together under the Big Umbrella when it is available…) So as The West implodes, I need to figure out how best to survive it with wealth and safety. OK…
At the end of the day, I find a curious satisfaction in the realization that culture, Christianity, and technology will survive in Russia; even as The West collapses. China I am less sure about. (Remember that I “had a crush” on the Chinese Girl in my school as a kid, so this isn’t a “race thing” – it is a Communist “Lang type socialism” vs. “Corrupt Imperialist West no longer a Republic” thing…) Which kind of corruption is less evil?
So, OK, back to the reality of today. California is having a “Flooding Drought Of Epic proportions!!!”) and I’m just glad I’m not in it. The West (via the machination of our CIA Driven Government) is busy trying to figure out how to destroy Russia & China and stay Top Dog despite the USA having, via corruption, moved all power and manufacturing to China. Then the EU would really really like to stay In Power despite pissing on all their constituent Nations.
I think I need more wine… and maybe it’s time to buy more wine stocks, or at least more wine futures…
Musings from the Chiefio 
Curiously I just posted in The Australian my comment:
I, unlike most commentators below, would like the war to finish soon. What basis is there for an agreement? The Minsk agreements were broken by the Ukrainians shortly after they were signed. Putin signified his willingness to negotiate last year without response. Offers by Turkey to hold meetings were ignored by Ukraine. As for the EU they’ve destroyed their economies and are facing internal unrest; the demonstrations don’t get reported here in the MSM. Italy, Hungary and Serbia are against the “War, War for ever” talk and sanctions are slipping, even France turns a blind eye to Russian oil imports (so long as they are supposedly from North Africa). Czechia, Slovakia and Bulgaria are only paying lip service to the EU. Poland is strongly supporting Ukraine but their economy may not hold up, esp. with millions of refugees there. Unless there is peace this year then Europe may collapse. Might be in our interest to attract migrants from there.
The comments to the article were largely from people who ‘think’ Russia is evil and must be driven back (and out of Crimea). Coupled with a belief that weapons be supplied at once to Zelinsky despite the article pointing out they are either unavailable or not available for at least 18 months. A few were realistic and more informed about military matters.
The article ‘Zelensky needs to convince Russia to parley’ seems to have been originally in The Times (Max Hastings) so in either case will be paywalled.
“Camel-Ah cackles and says nothing”
That says it all. But if you insist on more, she may have a case of “Receptive (Wernicke’s) Aphasia.” That could be an explanation. Or she could just be a moron.
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2023/03/kamala_harris_may_suffer_from_aphasia.html
E.M.
Could go elsewhere but I think it fits the title
Time to stash it under the bed?
This does not sound good – US banks going under and watch what the political preoccupation is –
Goes with that IMO
https://richardsonpost.com/harryrichardson/30789/financial-armegeddon-or-a-storm-in-a-teacup/
It is very interesting to follow the reasoning here from a horizon very close to Ukraine. Some small questions though: What should Ukraine negotiate about? There are foreign troops (Russians) on Ukrainian soil. Is the idea that Zelensky should accept a ticket to exile being replaced by a russian pupput?
How big parts of Ukraine do you think Ukraine should give to Russia and why?
@EM
It might be significant that some hardline Western think tanks / policy setters / puppeteers are now having to think the unthinkable – we might have another Kabul on our hands.
e.g. Rand
Avoiding Another Kabul Debacle.
On the other hand, if the possibility of a Ukrainian collapse seems increasingly likely,
what are the West’s options? Direct military intervention seems unlikely. Does the West pull the plug on continuing support and oblige Ukraine to negotiate, accepting the best deal it can get? Does the West have any residual obligation to the Ukrainian people? No one wants to see a rerun of the debacle in Kabul. If Kyiv is about to fall, should the West try to impose an immediate ceasefire, one that gives time for Ukrainian soldiers, security personnel. and government officials to leave the country? What military equipment needs to be recovered or destroyed? What about civilians who want to leave? Is the West prepared to receive millions of additional Ukrainian refugees? Or should the West seek a geographic division that leaves a rump Ukrainian state where soldiers and civilians can regroup? How, and how long could such an enclave be protected?
https://www.rand.org/blog/2023/03/consequences-of-the-war-in-ukraine-the-end-and-beyond.html
So many questions! Mostly, it seems, because the consequences were not anticipated, or wished away by “We Are Winning!!!” press releases.
That reminds me, haven’t heard much from Boris Johnson lately…
Ukrainian military unit named after Boris Johnson ‘is wiped out by Wagner troops’
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukrainian-military-unit-named-after-boris-johnson-is-wiped-out-by-wagner-troops/ar-AA184ZGO
@Lars:
It all seems to come down to what “narrative” one thinks is “the truth”. There’s 2 basic alignments:
1) Ukraine was busy becoming a modern democratic western State, minding its own business and being all moral and prosperous, and along came those evil nasty greedy Orcs, the Russians, who just decided out of nowhere to steal Ukrainian land.
2) Ukraine was busy being shaped into a Proxy Force to attack and bleed Russia, developing a hatred of Russians and attacking and destroying the Ethnic Russians inside their own country. About 1/2 of Ukraine having been actual Russia for 1000 years, and only handed over to the Ukraine Oblast by Khrushchev (illegally as the Duma never ratified his order), it was only right and just that the noble Russian Army would rescue Their People from the shelling and cultural destruction being done to them.
IF you are from Camp #1, you align with “War forever until Ukraine & NATO WIN and Putin is driven from power (and hopefully Russia is broken up)”.
IF you are from Camp #2, you align with “Honor Minsk Agreements is out the window due to The West lying and ignoring them, so ‘negotiations will take place at the Polish Border’ – the only real question being “the present border, or when Poland regains Lvov?”
The BIG problem is that those two points of view can never be negotiated to an agreement.
Russia realized that when The West told their Puppet Mr. Z to NOT negotiate at the start of the SMO when Russia paused and said “we want the Donbass”. Now it is too late for that ‘solution’.
So we are either going to have Russia taking all of Ukraine, and deciding what bits they want to return (yes, “return” as in it was their land for 930 out of 1000 years…) to Mother Russia and what bits get returned to the other countries they were taken from by Stalin, and what is left as a Western Landlocked Rump Ukraine; or – Putin will be willing to “negotiate” with The (completely untrustworthy) Western Powers (i.e. the U.S.A. C.I.A.) for the “Russian Bits” without quite so much death and dying.
There is NO case where Russia packs up and leaves 1990 Ukraine.
What do I want?
I really do not care as long as the death and destruction stops. Not my country, heck, not even my continent.
I would prefer that The West not run around the world tipping over countries in “Color Revolutions” and just let citizens actually elect their own leaders and choose their own path; but that isn’t going to happen. Heck, we can’t even have honest elections in the USA…
What do I expect?
Russia will definitely keep the historically Russian parts of the Ukraine Oblast. Not sure if they will want Kiev; but they take Odessa, Donbass & Crimea for sure. Also not sure if they will leave the “odd bits” of Hungary, Romania & Poland in a Rump Ukraine, or give them back to their respective origin countries.
Were I in Putin’s place, I’d give them back.
Oh, and Moldova is making nice-nice noises to Romania. Even declaring Romanian an official language (but really, “Moldovan” is just a minor dialect variation of Romanian). Now this is interesting as IF Moldova does a “return to Romania”, it instantly becomes NATO and puts Russia in a minor bind in that Transnistria Provence of Moldova is full of Russians and a big Russian ammo dump. So either Russia does a “Run for the Transnistria Provence” or a lot of Russians there are screwed. In either case NATO has the desired “border war with Russia” and can activate Article 5.
That, right now, is the NATO (i.e. USA/CIA) goal. Get an active hot war of all of NATO directly with Russia; preferably on a “second front” (or third…) with both Georgia & Romania being the present proxy hot spots being activated.
So while Russia is doing a slow “Grind Down Ukraine”, NATO (nee USA/CIA) is busy trying to expand the scope of the war and get W.W.III going. For some crazy reason, they seem to think they can “win” that without artillery shells… Maybe thinking of using nukes? Who knows what Crazy Town they are from…
What do I think would actually “Fix It”?
Give the Russian bits to Russia. Have the non-Slav parts of Ukraine given back to their original countries. Have the USA / CIA / EU / NATO stop pot stirring in countries all over the world, declare peace and go home.
No, I do not at all expect that to happen.
Oh, and a minor comment on timing.
What with Bahkmut about to collapse, that takes the stuffing out of the Z-line of defense. Figure in about a month, Russia can just roll on in to the rest of Ukraine IF it desires to do so.
Russia got a bit of burnt fingers when NATO / USA / EU started feeding precise targeting information to Ukraine (i.e. total battlefield awareness down to single vehicles). That has dampened their ability to run in columns of any size.
So they shifted tactics. Smaller sized units just grinding away at the edges of the Z-Line and an air war with unmanned munitions. That’s worked well for them so far.
As soon as they are fairly sure they have run Ukraine out of artillery shells and air defense missiles, they can then run in their armor and manned air force. That is, IMHO, likely “soon”. (There are some reports of manned air attacks already).
What is unclear is if they are willing to blind USA Space Observation abilities. Were I them, I’d let the USA keep watching and just go for the “run them out of ammo and destroy their artillery & air defense guns / launchers” and then go in.
Right now, Ukraine has thawed and turned to a sea of mud. Not going to move armor in that muck (for either side). So Russia now needs to wait for that to dry out. So the “Winter Offensive” is off the table and the “Spring Offensive” is waiting for solid ground. While that happens, the small unit grinding and standoff weapons attacks roll on…
A review of the historical drying date of Ukrainian mud / dirt would be helpful…
It does look a little bit like Russia has figured out that a “push” at ALL points of contact prevents Ukraine from focusing counter force fire on them (i.e. USA intel saying “concentrate there!” is useless then). So Russia could just do that. Push “everywhere all at once” with small units. Some parts of the line of contact would collapse and then Russia could do the kind of “envelop and destroy” currently going on in Bahkmut in several other places too.
In any case, I can’t see Mr. Z & Rump Ukraine holding out much longer than about June.
I don’t think anyone really knows the reality in Ukraine or Russia. Why should anyone care? Both countries can figure things out for themselves, and struggle (as we do) to work out solutions for their own problems.
Things get very different though once countries invade another. Such events were exactly what the UN was chartered to stop. Once you invade, ALL responsibility for troubles is yours. Every bit of it. And “rest of us” have license to subject you to any punishment we can.
Sophisticates are overthinking this. It’s just like that nonsense our elites always push upon the public.
Sadly, had well intentioned nuclear disarmament never taken place, the Ukraine invasion would not have happened. Ukraine should have kept it’s nukes, and it’s obvious now that all small countries truly need them.
And this “trust for Russian elites”? Where the hell does that come from? The Russians are even better liars than Americans. More delusional too. How is it possible for any country to trump our woke infested government? Yet here we are….
Don’t want further treaties with Russians. That’s a bad bet.