I’ve come to the conclusion that whoever it is that is running the world “from the top” is completely lacking in the ability to understand The Real World. They just demand an outcome they desire and push for it. That, then, either succeeds (and they congratulate themselves on their brilliance…) or fails (and they blame their tools and move on). Not understanding the limits of The Real World, they have no ability of foresight. They just can’t look at 50,000 Ukrainians vs 500,000 Russians and realize “this is not going to work”. Instead, they DEMAND a counter offensive. “Look at all the money and Wonder Weapons ™ that have been given to you! Go get em!”
After all, they measure their world in $Money and “Weapons”. Weaponized NGOs. Weaponized Government Agencies. Weaponized Political Parties, legal systems, etc. And they just know that it works and that is all that matters. “It’s not what you know it’s who you know!” writ large. I suspect their thinking doesn’t extend much beyond “I know all the right people, with all the right levers of organizational power, and have all the money needed; so that must mean I get what I want.”
So the notion that, for example, you have a logistics tail to any military weapons and that must be serviced, fed, and operated for the weapon to matter; well, that’s outside their horizon of understanding or vision. “We” have the Wonder Tanks and the Wonder Excalibur Howitzers! What? We don’t have the ability to make large quantities of ammunition for them rapidly? So we can’t use them after a week of fighting? What? But “we” have F-16 jets and more!! What do you mean it takes a year+ to train a pilot in how to use one in battle and not get blown up?? “They” fly jets already! (But those are Russian jets with different controls, weapons, responses, abilities and more and “everything they know is wrong” for a different jet). The notion that the man and machine are integrated over a year+ of experience is outside their experience.
People have a limited quantity of information and experience they can absorb and apply in any number of years experience. Yes, folks vary in max size for that. Some are very fast and can do double or even triple what others do. However: When you spend the first 20+ to 30+ years of your life focused on “knowing the right people” and “how to schmooze them” and “how to apply money to get agreement”: You were NOT spending time and attention learning how to build things, what it takes, what a logistics tail is, how hard it is to fly in combat, or even “what it feels like to lose, how to see it coming, and how to avoid it again”.
That, IMHO, is the problem we have today in The West. The Children of Power & Wealth are sent to Harvard, and Yale, and Cambridge and Stanford and meet all the right people… but they don’t have all the right life experience to make good decisions about real world issues (nor even have the right understanding of how the Real World Of THINGS works so they could begin to understand and predict that world). So you get folks like Turdoh in Canada and Ms. Bud Lite Marketer who simply do not understand how bad their decisions have been and certainly not why their big vision failed. It must be those dirty slovenly little people who crapped in my beer… or palace.
There are a very few exceptions. Some of the British Royal Family have had experience in the military. Flying helicopters requires real skill and real understanding of the real world. But even there, two brothers. One well grounded in reality, in waiting to become King with Clue. The other married to a compatible emotional basket case just preening and pouting about how hard it is to live a pampered life of wealth when you piss on your family… One who would know what it takes to keep a helicopter corps flying (and firing), the other who would cry about it not working the way he wanted.
The issue, I think, is that there are just far far too few “Rich & Powerful With Real World Clue” and far too many “Pampered Adult Children Of Power” who jump on the latest fads and instinctively “Follow their own herd” of similar Children Of Power who have gone to all the right schools and know all the right people! But can’t tell you how to change a tire, and don’t know that getting a new one requires a giant ship from China running on Diesel Oil (and give up all hope of them understanding that ship has a 50 year life and there are NONE that can even be made that run on electricity…)
In short: We have highly educated idiots in charge who view the world through a warped lens of too little real world experience and too much “Money & Authority = Gratification”. Failure is a GREAT teacher, and this is the Participation Trophy generation.
Col. Macgregor gives a pretty good prediction (projection?) of how the Ukraine War is likely to unfold, now that the folks of the EU and those Idiots In Charge are starting to get a dawning awareness that “this isn’t going well”. Anyone with 1/2 a brain realized this was going to go south when Boris flew in and pissed on the negotiations between Mr. Z and Putin. THE clear result was going to be the destruction of most of Ukraine and a lot of dead Ukrainians. Some of us saw it coming then. Others not so much and only now starting to see that as a “maybe possibly” outcome. Watching them slowly learn this is painful, but nice to seem them getting clue even if it is a year late…
Wonder Weapons don’t matter if you have no ability to supply ammunition. Mr. Z et. al. (or his handlers) are unaware they are letting Putin choose the field of battle and manner of combat (and may not even realize why that is a recipe for disaster) but instead demand “attack!”.
Key points? Things like how training on a given fighter jet is not generic and is more like learning a whole new sport or whole new language. Things like the population of Ukraine now being about 1/2 what it was (and the understanding that this breaks a country even in the absence of anything else.)
You can rest assured that “those who stayed” are heavy in the old, infirm, and too poor to leave. Those who left will include the more clueful (who saw the need early), with the money and skills to leave and the courage to start a new life. That is, those who left will be the more valuable citizens and those who stayed “enriched” in the “takers” of society. Now mix in the killing and maiming of the “young men” in Hundred Thousands scale, and there’s a demographic catastrophe already made. Ukraine no longer will have the ability to run any economic enterprises at even 1/2 their prior level, and certainly no ability to generate the tax revenue to support the prior government. Forget about the money and labor and skills needed to rebuild the place.
Ukraine is simply “dead man walking” as an economic enterprise and stable culture with a stable social structure. This, even before the Western Vultures descend on the carcass of it post war to pick off dead meat from the bones. (Blackrock, Monsanto, Pfizer, etc. etc.) Expect to see it “rise from the dead” but as a wholly owned new creation of the GEB Industries debt slave economy (at best). The CIA Color Revolutions leave behind them a large swath of devastated semi-functional countries… but I guess it does eliminate “The Competition” for The West…
The Rest Of World sees this all and has largely decided that The West (USA / EU / Five Eyes) can not be trusted with their money as there is no Rule Of Law anymore; so are applying in droves to join The BRICS+ and that is going to kill The Western Economic Hegemony. Watch Saint Petersburg this next month…
The West and their puppet Ukraine can not “win” against Russia. Mr. Z may need to plan his exit strategy from Ukraine. BUT, the big problem is just “With whom will Putin ‘negotiate’? Eh?” Our “leaders” in The West have already proven they are liars and can not be trusted. They have stated openly that the Minsk Accords were a lie and sham from the start. There is nobody whom Putin and Russia can trust to hold to any agreement, cease fire, “guarantees of security”, etc.
So, IMHO, Medvedev has it right. “Negotiations will happen at the Polish Border”. Mr. Z is a useless sock puppet. The EU is a tyrannical kleptocracy that lies. Mr. Biden is a clueless idiot run by the C.I.A. who sponsored the Ukrainian Color Revolution to begin with (and with a LONG history of lying and deception)…
And more.
OK, that’s my rant. Now on to someone with Real Clue. What to know how the next couple of months are likely to play out? Here’s your clue stick (41 min):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCkDRXk17qM
Yes, they have blocked playback away from YouTube. OK, guess I won’t be linking to many more Macgregor YouTube videos. A link is OK I guess, but it lacks the appeal of a visible thumbnail with descriptive text in it. Oh Well. It’s still a clueful video, but more folks would watch it as an embed then will “hit the link”.
Update:
No sooner do I hit “publish” but The Duran comes out with a similar opinion; that the Western Leaders are out of touch with the reality of their people and that they care more about in-group cohesion and membership than having policies that work.
Make a fella wonder how so many Regular Folks can see it, but the “stuff” at the very top of the political leadership can be so clueless about it. They need to get out more and visit the Real World from time to time…
So this is what, the 11th “sanctions package”? Guaranteed to damage EU economic performance, impoverish their own citizens and companies, drive economic production out of the EU and into places like China and India; all while doing nothing bad to Russia and motivating huge swathes of The Global South to join BRICS+ and move away from a USA / EU dominated global economy with rampant theft of assets and money.
With “leadership” like this, I think maybe I need to try again to learn to at least read and write Russian at an 8th grade level…
Musings from the Chiefio 
Douglas Adams, author of the greatly expanded Hitchhiker’s Guide To The Galaxy Trilogy (at five or six volumes, now) had some prescient ideas about government in general, and President(s), in particular…
and
These idjiots are going to fight their immensely profitable (for them) war down to the last Ukrainian, and then look for another “revenue stream”. Just a bunch of tossers…
Here’s hoping and praying that somehow, some way, someone or something puts an end to the madness, before it ends us…
(Here in Germany we’re basically being invaded without a shot being fired. OK, knives are the weapons of choice, but it’s still along the lines of what Chairman Mao “offered” to the USA so many years ago (takeover without a shot being fired)…
Even with fools at the helm, Ukraine must have been a long time in the planning. From 2014 at least?
The Ministry of Defence is set to sign a £3.5bn deal for nearly 600 new armoured vehicles ahead of the Nato summit in Wales. The MoD will sign the order for 589 Scout Specialist Vehicles at General Dynamics in Caerphilly county.
That was the UK government ordering from (guess what) a US company.
“Not only will they be crucial in helping to keep Britain safe, they will also underpin nearly 1,300 jobs across the UK and showcase the strength of the UK’s highly skilled defence sector.” Mr Cameron said the UK had the second largest-defence budget in the alliance – “meeting Nato’s 2% of GDP spending target” – and was providing “leadership” within the organisation.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-south-east-wales-29040182
As another site put it:
We’re reasonably sure that there are far more efficient means of generating work with £3.5bn. It’s enough to pay 1300 unemployed people roughly the national average salary each – a very respectable £26,000 – for 104 years. Or alternatively, to pay them the national average salary for their entire working life, and also buy them each a house and a Bugatti Veyron for the daily commute. You only need 600 armoured vehicles if you’re anticipating, or actually in, a full-scale war.
“The Children of Power & Wealth are sent to Harvard, and Yale, and Cambridge and Stanford and meet all the right people… but they don’t have all the right life experience to make good decisions about real world issues (nor even have the right understanding of how the Real World Of THINGS works so they could begin to understand and predict that world).”
Yes.
“So you get folks like Turdoh in Canada and Ms. Bud Lite Marketer who simply do not understand how bad their decisions have been and certainly not why their big vision failed.”
I can’t be bothered to look up Ms. Bud Lite Marketer; she is history.
Turdoh on the other hand is still dictator. And still a Nepo Baby, that’s short for nepotism baby. Children of Power & Wealth .
But no Harvard, Yale, Cambridge or Stanford for him.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justin_Trudeau
He would have flunked out.
He was also a snowboard instructor.
He may not know how reality works, but he does know how Machiavelli politics and corruption work.
E.M.
Macgregor was using Bitchute at one stage – maybe also there?
EMS:
Probably not on your viewing list but Larry Kudlow has been asking “How do we keep the FBI out of politics?” His concern is that the Durham report shows series of coverups of Democratic failures & criminal behaviour while trying to besmirch the Republican side.
I understand that the House of Representatives can impeach any officer in the Government service but the Senate would be unlikely to vote them on partisan lines. But could the House keep several senior members of the FBI and other conspirators busy facing charges of insurrection leading up to the 2024 election?
I’ve mentioned this a few times before regarding the GEB’s and their expectations of the current technological world to continue as it is after they cull the population to the half-billion or so they think will be ideal.
Stick with me here.
Used to be, manufacturing was vertically integrated, for example, Ford. They made their own steel from ore. They used the steel for all the steel forgings, sheet, and castings they used. They made all of the components they used, from door handles to starter motors, to rearview mirrors and headliners. Then they assembled all of their own parts into automobiles. They owned and controlled the processes from ore to store and were experts in all aspects of manufacturing.
I worked for two companies that were almost as vertically integrated as Ford, but it seems that during the ’70’s and ’80’s vertically integrated companies sold off their ‘departments’ figuring that they should own the design and final assembly processes and buy from the spun-off companies, figuring that they would develop more expertise and efficiency.
Management found it too difficult to be experts in managing so many different processes as their products became more advanced and complex… mainly because management started being made up of bean counters instead of manufacturing guys.
So here we are today, where few manufacturers know exactly how to make all of the components that go into their products. They design their products and then order the components from smaller companies that are the experts in making particular components. And, personal experience here, their design engineers often don’t even understand how their designs are produced. Often, suppliers have to go back and tell the designers that what they want can’t be made and suggest design changes so the component can be made.
There are some common critical components made where only one or two or just a few people in the entire world know how to make certain tools or parts. It’s true.
The bottom line is that in culling the population, the GEBs will inevitably bump off some of these people and the critical knowledge they held will be lost. Some of the experts that survive that will go Galt. The skills and knowledge can be regained, but it will take years for some things to be figured out all over again. A bunch of things we take for granted will no longer be available.
It is very true that the GEBs do not understand how things are made. The big cull will not go as envisioned. After a time, helicopters won’t fly, electronic gates won’t open, and phones and computers won’t work.
The GEBs are ‘big picture’ people, but pictures are made up of thousands of pixels or dots of paint or ink and the critical and necessary details will be missing.
Oh! If the GEB’s plans come to fruition, there will be a big knife fight among them to determine who will be the top GEB.
Each one thinks they are the Smartest Person In The Room and they have the requisite narcissism to expect to be the Top Dog.
Oh what glorious skullduggery, murder, and mayhem there is to come! Play feudal games, win feudal prizes.
I don’t think I’ll be around for that time, but I’m hoping I’ll get lucky and get to see it.
And then BillyBorg will declare, “resistance is feudal”…..
Just have a look at Germany to see where that leads. They’re doing everything in their power to drive industry away, while almost all the rest of Europe are going back to Nuclear Power, as it’s the only way to meet the (idiotic) CO2 “goals” (own goals, one might say)…
Add to that the fact that windmills and solar (aka Pixie Dust and Unicorn Farts) cannot even begin to cover the Germany’s current power needs, and Habeck (a fairy-tale author turned Business Minister (!)) pushing heat pumps, perhaps as the sole source of heating once gas, coal, oil, and now wood are banned… and heat pumps require a LOT of electricity, as do electric cars…
But a fairy-tale author can just write a (fractured) fairy tale and get away with it… with a little help from his “friends” of the Raichen family (big scandal going on there) and BlackRock…
Gonna be interesting this coming winter… and cold…
FWIW
“SITREP 5/20/23: Bakhmut Falls, Artemovsk Rises. What’s Next?”
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-52023-bakhmut-falls-artemovsk
H.R says:
‘It is very true that the GEBs do not understand how things are made. The big cull will not go as envisioned. After a time, helicopters won’t fly, electronic gates won’t open, and phones and computers won’t work. ‘
…Cargo Cult thinking will rule.
Here’s an example from Scotland, who’s political leadership has imploded because of donations that have gone missing or disappeared, with police arrests. The current First Minister is Humza Yousaf. Who appears to be bidding to be even more inept and useless than his predecessors.
He recently met the Association of Ukrainians in Great Britain in Edinburgh. Pictures show the Association is all-female. Yousaf asked them “Where are all the men?”.
Perhaps he assumed they were all at work in some day-jobs in Scotland. Much more likely it was a clumsy and insensitive ignorance. As most of us know:
“The country enforced martial law after the invasion, including barring men aged 18 to 60 from leaving Ukraine, except in limited circumstances. “
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/03/16/humza-yousaf-accused-toe-curlingly-crass-comment-asking-ukrainian/
Counterpoint;
I think the critical problem with MacGregor’s predictions is that he over-estimates the remaining heavy weaponry, industrial capabilities and army competence of Russia. Sure they can pull on a vast conscript pool, but they wiped out most of their professional army last year, and their remaining training and provisioning apparatus appears very poor (see the state of Russian trenches – very poor discipline), and more importantly their heavy weapons are being taken out of action at a crazy rate – Ukraine commonly destroying 20 artillery systems a day with estimates of just 3000 guns left in action along 900km front being lost at up to 200 per week (failures and destruction). And recent rate of attrition of Russian air defense has been similarly brutal in preparation for coming offensive. Russia simply can’t replace them, or even maintain what they have – they never anticipated a long war, and don’t have production to replace even a small fraction of their losses and consumption (only 12 guns manufactured in Russia in 8 years leading up to war). Russia are resorting to pulling 60-70 year old tanks from storage to act as crude artillery, but even that is in short supply. Russian infantry won’t be able to hold on without artillery.
And all the time Ukrainian weapons are improving – deeper and deeper strikes on vulnerable Russian logistics, oil, rail, bridges, command centres, barracks, airfields and munitions stocks are happening using Ukrainian developed UAVs – Russia has excruciatingly long supply lines to front compared to Ukraine that can move stuff around front line quickly. And western arms production and supply is scaling up as they lose fear that Russia will escalate. There is a vast amount of near end-of-life stuff in west that can be sent – like F16s. Patriots have arrived and will be expanded upon, F16s soon, lots of fast accurate western armour coming into Ukraine, big new supplies of shells from Korea et al. Ukraine has something like 700 air defense launchers, hundreds more AD guns and many thousands of air defense missiles (mostly manpads) distributed all over and something like half a million in their armed forces that they can pull on for the offensive (estimated only about one third currently engaged) meaning 100’s of thousands of well trained soldiers relatively fresh for coming offensive while Russia army is withering, poorly provisioned, harried and probably 80-90% engaged at front.
Russian winter offensive came to naught – their few forays like at Vulhedar were embarrassing massacres, but looks like Ukrainians are delaying spring offensive into summer to allow more time for better weapons to arrive (and Russians to deplete theirs further) so could be mid to late summer before they press the go button. At which point good chance Ukrainians get to the sea of Azov, and cut off Crimea. The thin Southern occupied strip of Ukraine is logistically super vulnerable with few major supply routes for Russia and I’d be surprised if Kerch bridge was still traversable in Autumn.
A good expert to follow who details a lot of actual – on the ground armaments’ and numbers https://www.youtube.com/@allera44/videos
Back in 98 there is a movie Armageddon, most realistic thing I thought about that movie was that they got real life oil drillers and trained them as astronauts, not the other way around. Years later I heard about a thing called the 10,000 hour rule, which I don’t necessarily agree with, as em pointed out some people learn quicker than others.
I think maybe the gist is real life experience matters. The West is buying all their solar panels batteries and evs from China, which is now getting all kinds of Russian fossil fuels to build said Renewables, and since the West has got all these Renewables built in China what do we need fossil fuels for? I wouldn’t be surprised if we started exporting fossil fuels to China too…
@Graeme No. 3:
Easy: Eliminate the FBI. Near as I can tell, there is NO police power granted by The Constitution. That is the domain of the States. The FBI was created with the excuse that a given State police had no jurisdiction in any other State. Easy fix is just to have the States pass laws saying that a fugitive from another State can be pursued and arrested in their State. Done and dusted.
Gets rid of the whole Federal Law vs State Law problem set too.
And if, say, Texas, doesn’t like New York arresting folks in Texas for “Gun Crime” of owning an AR-15, they just say it isn’t something New York can arrest folks for in Texas. (OR just have their law say “You can arrest folks in Texas for Murder, Burglary, {list of other bad felony stuff}, and nothing else”. Leaves out that whole “arrested for the wrong pronoun in a YouTube Video” too ;-)
@H.R.:
Already Started on that Top Dog thing. See the Clintoncide list and the list of folks who have Ceased To Be while running countries that they didn’t like… You know, places like Lybia, Iraq, basically any place pre-Color Revolution…
BTW, one of the reasons for the move away from vertical integration was the notion that you could get a greater % profit if you “dumped” the low profit parts of a business. “Financial Engineering”. So the Bean Counters were asked by the C-Suite Suits “What can I do to get a higher ‘profit margin’ and bigger bonus?” The answer was “Well, forging cases and assembling alternators and starters and such is not very profitable, but takes a lot of money to keep running”. The result was EVERY USA car maker spun out their Parts Division in the ’70s or ’80s I think. They still “own”” them, but the accounting is separated so that, for example, FORD can show more profit / $”invested” and the C-suite gets their bonus.
Similarly, BOSCH makes a lot of European parts. Think anyone at Mercedes knew how to make distributors or Diesel injection pumps? Nope. Some of them clearly understand the ideas behind them, but the making was outsourced to folks with “particular expertise”
FWIW, a group of us Nerds in UC were sitting in a restaurant (Denny’s I think…) in about 1973 or so. We were talking about what it would take to terraform planets, like Mars, and how to do it. Next booth over were 3 or 4 “older guys” of about late 30’s to early 40’s. Seems they had a “problem” they could not solve and decided to share it…
They were working on the design of the Space Shuttle and needed a ceramic thing to go around some other part, at an angle, and could not work out what that shape would be. Now I was “heavy with clue” but short on stubbornness… so I said “Wouldn’t that be a conic section?” (Turns out that after leaving the restaurant and done some work I was able to prove it would be a conic section…) They said “No, it has {some lame thing he said about angles and that they thought about it} and it isn’t.” At that moment I “let it go” and we all spent about 20 minutes talking about the shape it might be if it wasn’t a conic section… which was guaranteed to never be right since it was a conic section as I later worked out / proved. But by then had no way to contact them and “correct their error”.
I assume they eventually worked it out since the Space Shuttle did fly. But think about it: Several Engineers or Tech Managers (never said which) along with a few fairly gifted UC Students didn’t work out that it was a simple conic section with math that wasn’t that hard. (IIRC it was a cone going through a cylinder or something similar – a rocket nozzle needed a ceramic isolator to keep it from burning up the sheet metal or some such.)
So now tell me how many folks know how to do the complex physical chemistry of making doped silicon areas on a wafer of ultra-pure silicon with a 7 nm feature size… I wager about a dozen in the world. Maybe 2 dozen if you are generous. Even there, many have specific sub specialties. Does the guy who knows how to make a 7 nm mask and project traces on the wafer know how to get the phosgene and arsine gases mixed and diffused to just the right depth and concentration for the two doped areas? Does he know how to make the photomask chemicals? Break ANY link in the chain and the whole process stops. How many folks know how to MINE arsenic and refine it? (Or even where it is mined… Hint: It is a byproduct… and by far most of it comes from China, Morocco, and Russia… so go ahead, GEBs, and ban minerals from China and Russia…)
@Jeff:
Yup. One wonders if maybe they have too many “Just BELIEVE!!!” stories in the GEBs favorite training centers… There IS a harsh reality and you can not ignore it and thrive (or even survive…) no matter how much you BELIEVE!!! in the narrative.
A 700 year old (founded in the 1300’s) specialty metals and alloys company in Germany has closed up shop due to energy costs. Now where on Earth can you find 700 years of expertise in specialty metals creation? Hmm? Where do their customers turn for that exceptional skill? I’m sure something will be worked out, but it won’t be in the EU or USA…
@Beththeserf:
Good One!
Pray to the God of Wind!!! Let the Sun God Ra rise again, please!!!
@Keith:
Oh Gawd… Didn’t even know that the men get sent off to die in battle in times of war. Maybe he expected the Intelligentsia Of Ukraine to be exempt… and run away from Ukraine…
@Foyle:
Where are you sourcing that state of affairs? Near as I’ve been able to tell from fairly reliable folks (i.e. NOT just parroting Ukrainian claims in the MSM) the bulk of all Russian forces and conscripts have not even been in battle at all. They are piled up on the borders and dug in away from where Wagner Group is doing all the work.
Russia is also clearly producing new rockets, ammo, tanks, etc. at rates faster than they are being used up. (Notice that despite claims that Russia is “Running Out!” of everything for the last year… Russia is doing more damage to Ukraine than they were a year ago, or even a few months ago…) While it is clear that The West is running out of 155 mm shells, Patriot Missiles, etc.
Per “old tanks”: That’s a standard Russian Doctrine that has nothing to do with “running out”. Russia never throws anything away just because it is old. Old tanks work Just Fine against infantry, for guarding POW camps, as mobile modest range artillery, etc. Just like the USA used “inferior” Sherman tanks in W.W.II to take down “vastly superior” Tiger tanks, Russia knows that “Quantity has a quality all its own”. So, yeah, old tanks will not survive in a “Tank On Tank” battle with the very newest of the West. But they do a dandy job of taking out trucks, trains, dug in troops, soldiers in a building, etc. etc. etc. etc. etc… It is just a very lame argument to say “They are using old tanks”. So what!
This is a “war of attrition” and Ukraine is already attritted to near zero. Russia NEVER SAID they were going to have a Winter Offensive. It is pundits of The West who claimed it was expected. What happened instead was that the ground never froze enough to support tanks and heavy equipment, Russia “dug in” with multiple layers of defense, and Ukraine decided to throw their army against a dug in wall of defenses repeatedly and waste most of their men and material while giving Russia exactly what it wanted: An easy time “grinding down” the Ukrainian army.
I appreciate the “report” of the other POV, but it reads rather like a fascinating work of fiction. Russia raised a 400,000 man army and went to “war footing” in manufactures; yet did NOT send those troops into combat (almost all of the fighting has been in the areas with Wagner group or where the prior Special Military Operation forces were already in place – so no way that 400,000 has been touched).
I just don’t see any Evidence for the claims made that Russia is having a hard time.
@Josh:
I’ve wondered if maybe the whole “Oil & Coal BAD!!” thing was dreamed up in Europe due to their not having much of it and needing to ship massive amounts of money to Saudi Arabia and others (Russia…) so they thought “Maybe if we convince everyone else to not use oil we can be economically competitive!”….
Yet Another Silly “bright idea”?
Europe seems full of such things…
@em
I’m thinking more along with the lines of the thing you were talking about with your buddies before hearing about the conical Shield problem thingy.
BTW the other day I saw really beautiful rainbow, the monsoons have started very early in Arizona, which of course LED my train of thought to think of the promise to Noah, and the work that Newton did and how we now now have spectrosity, doesn’t seem like there’s much global warming going on around here, LOL sorry for rambling
@em
Addendum…. the first post I read from the chiefio was about 15 years ago or so, it was titled” there is no energy shortage” I think that still holds true, at least for Earth….
Kinda ot, but saw a couple of Ts I want….
https://www.snorgtees.com/back-in-my-day-we-had-nine-planets?gad=1&gclid=CjwKCAjwgqejBhBAEiwAuWHioBE3qQuTWs_p61FopMCjEsgxfFQ19WOuIec_nq9RfmwlgxDdkswWZBoCBDwQAvD_BwE#494=156&76=155&493=7
https://www.snorgtees.com/alderaan-5-day-forecast
OT, mea culpa
@Jeff
I still haven’t actually read the books, I watched a couple of series maybe that were from the BBC got the gist of the story, I do try to avoid vogan poetry, and I know where my towel is, but I had a question wasn’t there something in there about an Intergalactic Super Highway? And like eminent domain law?
@Foyle:
Oh Gawd… I ‘hit the link’ you posted. It has one fat guy posing a chicken on a machine gun and saying stupid stuff like “Russia can’t make surface attack missiles” when we know they are putting them out in volume (and we know that due to the number Ukraine claims to shoot down each night…. like “shot down 21 out of 18 missiles” and similar silly things… along with the actual damage done by the Russian missiles, like taking out the bridges from Romania so that NATO troops from Romania will find it hard to get into Ukraine…)
Loaded with flippant bald assertions. Very little reference to any sources (and what was referenced was a Ukrainian ‘claimed kills’ list that is clearly bogus as Ukraine has been shown to lie massively and repeatedly – like Ghost Of Kiev and children waving good bye to Dad when the picture was found in an earlier archive…)
If that’s your source, I can see why you believe Russia is losing.
I strongly suggest you find some actual military guys and see what they are reporting. Col. Macgregor has his head on straight and has clue (plus some contacts), while The New Atlas is also very careful about accuracy.
Oh, and the guy you liked is highly impressed by the number of air defense guns, but doesn’t seem to realize they are entirely useless against gravity bombs, fast missiles, and high altitude air attack. Or that you need a trained soldier to operate each of them (and Ukraine is very short on soldiers… )
It is a country with a current population of about 19 Million (they were about 39 million in 2022 but 1/2 have left). Figure that’s 1/2 women, so about 10 Million men. About 1/2 of them of “fighting age” gives about 5 million being generous. Russia has a population of 146 Million. So again do the divide by about 4, gives about 36 Million available to fight. Compare 5 to 36. That’s about a 7:1 ratio. This also holds for manufacturing staff. There is just No Way that Ukraine can either out produce or out fight Russia. Hell, Russia is presently destroying everything all of NATO can throw at it in Ukraine. The “front lines” always move toward Ukraine, not toward Russia; with the only exception being when Ukraine mounts some weak ‘offensive’ when the Russian front line drops back to their hard defensive line and the Ukrainians rush into the Kill Box to get chewed up by pre-positioned and pre-aimed artillery…
The Math just does not work out for Ukraine.
And the appeal to Wonder Weapons has regularly failed. EVERY “red line” has been crossed up to F-16s. The result? No big wins (or even notable little wins) for Ukraine, and many $Billions of NATO gear destroyed along with a lot of Ukrainian men. (Regular reports of various Ukrainian units being withdrawn with 70%+ casualties to be “reconstituted” i.e. new meat added for the meat grinder… The latest being the Azov Battalion of Nazi-Lite having been created anew since the old army of it was destroyed.)
I’m afraid you will need a better source than the Chicken On A Gun guy if you want to convince me that “Ukraine Winning” is a thing…
@EM
I’ve wondered if maybe the whole “Oil & Coal BAD!!” thing was dreamed up in Europe due to their not having much of it
Actually, that’s “not having much of it available. There is plenty of it, but for various reasons we (in the UK and EU) made sure it wasn’t usable or accessible.
In the UK, starting in the 1970s, Margaret Thatcher decided to break the power of the UK coal mining unions. By starting the move to a “cleaner energy” economy, it gave the excuse to start closing most of the coal mines (because “environment”). That was Round #1 of de-industrialising significant parts of the UK Midlands and North.
Round #2 – The UK steel industry was very price-sensitive, no local coal meant the steel industry had to switch energy sources, at a higher cost, ceased to be competitive, lost customers, and gradually shrunk. The biggest remnants have been sold-off to Tata Steel (Indian)
Round #3, UK car manufacturing. Used to be lots of famous names. But by the 1970s, too small, too specialist, or too expensive. The desperate attempt to modernise by nationalisation (British Leyland) was a horrible fiasco. Massive union problems, notoriously bad product quality, customers lost faith and started buying better European and Japanese makes. Two of the biggest remnants of any worth (Jaguar and Land Rover) have been sold-off to Tata Cars (Indian). Post Brexit, the latest blow is the new EU tariffs. Honda has closed, Ford, Vauxhall and others are struggling to survive.
Round #4 – Imperial Chemical Industries (ICI) was a British chemical company. It was, for much of its history, the largest manufacturer in Britain. In the 1990s~2000s it was asset stripped and fragmented, sold-off mostly to foreign companies, expertise exported, and shrunk down.
After all this, blow by blow to local communities, there are significant parts of UK Midlands and North that are almost ghost towns, with low-grade jobs, high unemployment and high crime rates, big drugs problems. But it doesn’t get featured much in the UK MSM which is almost all based in the south. It these towns do get mentioned, it’s because there are now targets of opportunity, places to put the many thousands of illegal immigrants. But mentioned quietly because people are wary of making a fuss (because they will be called “racist”).
There’s still plenty of oil and gas reserves, except all licenses to drill have to be approved by UK government> For the last 15 or so years all got refused. Because “environmental policies” and now Net Zero Policies.
But there’s a glimmer of hope – most people are in favour. And we’re not in Germany.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scots-favour-north-sea-drilling-over-importing-oil-and-gas-z2rs25dkr
@Josh:
like the 9 planets thing…
Yes, there “Is no energy shortage”. There can be local shortages of easy and cheap ways to gather and use the energy. Easily fixed by getting some needed parts from somewhere else and / or being a bit wiser in what you do.
Like Earth Ships. Houses built to need NO external energy supply. Really like them (even if they are a bit strange looking and expensive to buy…)
I went to school in some old buildings that were very smartly made. One was reinforced concrete with hardwood floors and doors. No A/C and it was cool even on hot days. Another was made with south facing windows and a large overhang of roof. Summer the windows were in shade, and you could open some at the very top and let any hot air out. Winter it was warmed by the low sun. Yes, still needed some A/C and heat, but a lot less than the “temporary” buildings that were installed with square box and no overhang and a huge A/C hung on the side…
Per Hitchhiker:
I tried to read it, but like Lord Of The Rings, found it long winded, tedious, and a bit boring. (Bored Of The Rings was better ;-) Did see the video of it (BBC I think…).
Yes, Earth was in the way of a Galactic Superhighway or some such and was slated for destruction…
@em
Remember OAO? 1,2,B,3? When was that exactly I can’t remember
@Keith:
Note that your Times UK link requires a login to read it and that takes money… so I can’t read it. Maybe you need to cut/ paste the relevant bits or summarize it.
@Josh:
OAO?
Ontario Association of Optometrists?
Orbiting Astronomical Observatory?
Opticians Association of Ohio?
Office of Administrative Operations?
…
@em
The second one ; )
Also what year did Biosphere 2 Greenhouse thingy in Arizona happen?
@ keithMcD
Available is the key….
Second thing is you recreate the overall timeline, what happened when, and what other thing was happening at the same time?
Put here on the basis of “Dumb leaders”
“Finally, A Solution to The Problem of Intermittent Power Generation — The “Virtual Power Plant” ”
@EM
Re the Times article. Here’s the same from an alternate source.
Most Scots prefer to keep North Sea drilling over importing oil and gas, says new poll – More than three quarters of people in Scotland think the UK should aim to meet its demand for oil and gas from domestic production, a new poll shows. The research, conducted by polling firm Survation, suggests 76% of people in Scotland think North Sea drilling is preferable to importing oil and gas.
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/politics/scottish-politics/5297362/north-sea-drilling-imports/
But as we are in a “modern democracy”, the official NetZero (assisted suicide) policies are more important than the wish of the democratic majority.
It’s worth adding that’s just the North Sea, to the east of Scotland. There are massive untapped resources to the west of Scotland as well. But for more “virtual signalling” reasons, licenses to drill were refused.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-58103843
And, on the same basis –
“EV’s increase pollution: heavier cars wear out tyres 50% faster, increasing waste and poisonous particles…”
https://joannenova.com.au/2023/05/evs-increase-pollution-heavier-cars-wear-out-tyres-50-faster-increasing-waste-and-poisonous-particles/
@em
I didn’t particularly like the Alderaan forecast one, but that does show significant rapid onset global warming….
I wonder what the day after Chick-fil-A was like????
That was a very interesting autocorrect, but I’m going to leave it, cuz I’m pretty sure with your tidy mind you could figure out what I’m talking about,
(Terrible lizards)
@another ian
You are beating a dead horse, anyone with half a brain knows….
Per the “Virtual Power Plant”:
“Good luck with that…”
My house has ZERO “smart” appliances and will not have them. I’m shopping for a whole house standby generator with at least a 3 day fuel supply (preferably more like a week…)
I do not have an EV and will not be buying one. I do have 6 gas & diesel cars (don’t ask…) and plan to just keep driving them as long as I can drive. I expect at least 2 of them to outlast me. At least one of them can be kept running on vegetable oil, jet fuel, lamp oil, etc. etc. and has about 175,000 miles on a Million Mile engine. (Body needs paint and interior could use some fixing up… but mechanicals are just never going to wear out in my driving lifetime).
So they can “count me out” of their scheme. I suspect that a whole lot of the USA is in a similar condition. Not interested in any appliance that someone else turns on and off at the time of their choosing. ESPECIALLY any car charger or water heater or AC.
Spouse tends to drain the water heater for a nice long shower. So will it be hot at the time of her choosing? And what about afterwards? (She does not shower at 3 AM when all the extra power is around from lack of demand, nor at 1 PM when all the excess solar is around.)
A/C? “Pre-cooling” is an interesting idea. How does that work when it is 88 F for weeks on end around the clock? ( I remember some long sweaty nights in Northern California Central Valley when all we had was a swamp cooler… even a single sheet was a bit too much… 110 F at peak daytime, “dropping” to about 90-something at night…) Then there’s that minor problem of humidity… in Florida my AC is just as important for keeping the interior dry and not moldy… So mid day at peak humid I’m going to be doing what to keep the humidity down?
Oh, and NOBODY will be letting my fridge or freezer increase in temperature. Not interested in playing Russian Roulette with food spoilage / poisoning.
Then there’s the car thing. I keep my cars FULL of fuel. IF I had an E-Thingy, it too would be kept FULL. Why? Earthquakes when I was in California (and might need a week worth of fuel post quake before restoration was complete). Hurricanes here in Florida. Must be able to:
1) Leave a direct hit from a major hurricane before it gets here.
2) Drive around for several days to a week post minor hurricane / near miss by a major when power might be out for a week (and gas stations with it).
So you can leave out anyone with an understanding of disaster prep from the scheme.i
Oh, and has anyone pointed out that the battery life is measured in cycles and depth and that maybe repeatedly cycling the car battery without driving might kill the car several years sooner?
It may be the wet dream of the folks wanting to sell the entire USA brand new “smart” appliances and replacement EV-cars; but a whole lot of folks are NOT going to run out and buy everything they own all over again. Either from lack of funds or from lack of interest…
Any appliance I do need to buy in the future will have me asking the sales droid one critical question: Does this need me to use the internet or my cell phone for anything? IF the answer is no, I might buy it. IF the answer is yes, I shall not buy it.
FWIW, at UHaul, they wanted me to “sign” some document (stating I agreed with the photos they took of the truck and it was undamaged) using my cell phone. I pointed out my cell phone had NO data plan on it at all. Took them about 10 minutes to figure out how to get my $3000 without a phone ;-) Similarly, last Friday we went out for Sushi. They had a ‘tablet’ on a swivel bolted to the table / wall interface. Image of sushi was about a 1 inch thumbnail and with nearly unreadable type under it saying what it was… We requested (and got) a real menu and placed our order with the server, not via the ‘tablet’. (I’m not going to be leaving 18% tips for a DIY ordering system…) The list goes on… Just not playing.
@Josh:
Chicxalub or whatever? Yeah “Flaming Dinosaurs, Batman!” Coming soon to a continent near you… happens on a regular basis as we return to the Taurid rocks in space stream on about a 3000 year cycle. Hope not too many giant ones are left from the break up of Encke… it was a dinky one that did Tunguska in 1908.
The one I liked on E-Cars was the building engineer pointing out that parking structures were not built strong enough to hold up a whole floor full of them ;-)
Any bets on what city will be the first one to put this to the test / failure? I’m thinking Palo Alto (Stanford’s home town) or San Francisco…
FWIW
“Western Delusions About Russia and Ukraine are Genuine”
“If you think that the policy towards Russia, which is shaped by the perceptions and beliefs of the Washington status quo, is not seriously screwed up, think again and watch Charles Kupchan, a former Clinton and Obama National Security official and current shill for the Atlantic Council, take you on a bizarre journey worthy of Alice in Wonderland. Kupchan’s views are not unique to him. What he is saying about Russia and Ukraine is mainstream Neo-Con and reflects the views of Biden’s key national security aides and the leaders of the U.S. Senate and House. No amount of facts will change his mind. He is locked in, as is the Biden Administration, in portraying Russia as a rapacious, authoritarian state hell-bent on conquering the world.”
More at
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/05/western-delusions-about-russia-ukraine-are-genuine/
Global Warming makes perfect sense once you realize it is not an increase in temperatures so much as a decrease in IQs.
@EM, I have a 10k (12.5 startup) genny that has about 3 hours on it if interested.
I used it to power my homes 5 ton AC unit (50 amp output). I don’t use it much because it burns a gallon an hour vs. my 4k unit which I get 4 hours a gallon. You will need lots of fuel for a weeks’ worth of use. If you have natural gas available, that lends itself much better for a whole house unit, as long as the gas still flows.
E.M.: “Any appliance I do need to buy in the future will have me asking the sales droid one critical question: Does this need me to use the internet or my cell phone for anything? IF the answer is no, I might buy it. IF the answer is yes, I shall not buy it.”
You betcha!
I bought and installed a ‘smart’ water heater 1-1/2 years ago before leaving for Florida. The old one was gonna go sometime soon, and Murphy’s Law sez it would happen while we were in Florida and maybe flood the basement.
The choice was the same water heater in either the ‘smart’ or old fashioned ‘dumb’ version. The smart water heater had one feature I liked, which was a leak detector tied to an automatic shutoff valve at the inlet. The dumb unit did not come with leak detection.
BTW, I have learned that water heater failure has nothing at all to do with the age of the unit. I had one that leaked brand new out of the box that I had to take back and exchange. I had one that crapped out after 5 years, one after 8 years, and the one I was replacing was 18 years old (a good one!), which is why I was getting nervous about leaving.
It turns out that I did NOT have to use the WiFi smart mode to get the leak detection system. So, I don’t have any of the gee-whiz features that are usable for me. The leak detection and shut-off feature works even if you don’t use it in ‘smart’ mode.
I haven’t been in the market for any other electrical appliances, but I will be checking if they can be used for their intended function without connecting to the internet.
I think it may be true for most smart appliances that you have to introduce it to your home network. So it’s “don’t ask and don’t tell” about your internet connection and you are good to go.
I will definitely be checking that out before I buy anything again. It worked out just fine for the water heater.
You don’t have to connect to anything for stuff to work. Just don’t give it the WiFi password and it is stumped and offline.
I have used tankless water heaters for nearly 20 years and would recommend them for certain. Just be ready to add a couple power circuits.
Not keeping 40 gallons + of water hot all the time has tangible power savings benefits.
On the other hand, providing never ending “on demand” hot water to people (kids) has its drawbacks too.
@EM; obviously we disagree, only time will tell who put stock in the right experts, seems to me that MacGregor got it very wrong on his predictions 6-12 months of Russia steamrolling over Ukraine once they had spent themselves. Since then the war has definitely not progressed to Russia’s advantage (and seems they’re currently in process of being encircled in Bakmut), but let’s check in again in a few months to see who got it righter/wronger :)
@Foyle:
Check also with The New Atlas and The Duran (both Alex and Alexander on their separate channels also) along with several others; given your dislike of Macgregor.
BTW, note that today Ukraine has admitted that they have lost Bhakmut. Along with that they have lost all the men and equipment they have shoved into it over the last many months. This essentially ends their dream of any big ‘offensive’ along with giving Russia a major logistics hub for shipping (once they get the rail going again and clean things up).
Strange how despite all the assertions of Russia losing, they took a major prize that Mr. Z said was essential and would never be let go… and all using just a Private Military Company with some support from the regular Russian Army on the flanks and with artillery…
So the cream of the Ukrainian Army, with an endless supply of everything NATO can ship to them: got beaten in the place they claimed would never be lost, by ONE PMC with modest Russian army logistics and artillery support… Makes a fella think maybe Russia is doing OK…
FWIW, I’d expect that Russia will wait about a month while they integrate this into their battle plan and get it ready, pull Wagner back for refitting and R&R, and generally do a bit more “Shaping of the battle field” (i.e. remove bridges beneficial to NATO – like the ones they took out from Romania into Ukraine… and assuring Ukraine can’t move their electric trains… ) and then we will see a Russian move to whatever is their final goal. My best guess is Odessa up to Transnistria and perhaps also Kiev (but certainly control of the Dnieper River and dams); but not the Polish & Hungarian parts as, frankly, who would want to manage them… give them back to Hungary & Poland to work out… Likely finishing up about August to September.
But, like you said: We’ll need to wait and see if my muse is any better than yours, or not. It is also possible that Putin is happy with the destruction of All Things NATO being sent to Ukraine and will just choose to continue the present strategy of Make A Pocket and then “Grind Down” all things NATO & Ukraine shove into it.
BTW, present Russian GDP Growth is about 1% (so having growth, unlike Europe…) and Putin has been advised that the prediction of 1-2% growth going forward is likely too low. The Russian Oil Exports are larger than they have ever been, trade with both China and India is positively booming, and all in non-$US currencies. The BRICS+ are meeting with something like 19 nations applying and somewhere around 80 interested, along with an African Russian summit in Saint Petersburg shortly, The EU & USA have cooked their economic goose with the rampant theft of assets, cash, and sanctions. You can not piss on people (or countries) to make them your friends.
https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/BRICS-Summit-to-Strengthen-Economic-Cooperation-Anil-Sooklal-20230518-0015.html
Here’s a good summary of the conquest of Bhakmut by Russia:
So get used to calling it Artyomovsk now that it is Russian again.
@Ossqss:
For Now… I’m worried that “going forward” things will start to require an internet connection to work. (I ran into this with a CISCO boundary router a couple of decades back. Ordered it with the needed software to connect to the Telco and supply internet to the Client Site. On site, discovered that the software had to be “downloaded” into the machine via the internet. WT? So had to drive about 1/2 an hour back to the office to let it talk to the internet via our router long enough to be able to talk the the iternet on its own… ) LORD Help the guys who don’t have internet at all and are ordering this to get it….
Per the Generator:
Might take you up on that (price?) but 2 issues.
1) My A/C has a 70 Amp breaker, so I need to find out actual power needed)
2) It is hard wired not on a plug, so “some modification” needed… Transfer switch, maybe a plug added, or a dedicated sub-panel with a switch in it…
Which has me thinking of just throwing money at a large cement slab mounted unit with professional installation.
I’d looked at ones on Propane (no natural gas here…) and found that a 250 gallon tank would last me about one weekend… but could be as short as 1 day at full demand.
So I’ve been digging around looking at Diesel units… but pricy!
In the mean time, I’ve got a 2 kW job to run the fridges and freezer. It uses either gasoline or propane… of which I have both stored.
But at some point I need to address the problem… squeak by on no A/C or go whole house?…
But whole house propane generators suck down fuel like CRAZY and you can’t just pour in a 5 gallon can from the gas station… while Diesel units with a fuel bunker tank in the base are very efficient, durable, and dependable, AND you can pour in added fuel. But pricy! Man are they expensive.
A definite FWIW – From a comment at Jo Nova –
“Unexpected, but quite likely.. Seems Zelensky hasn’t been home since the Kremlin drone bombing attempt.
“PRO-PUTIN GENERALS SEIZE CONTROL OF UKRAINE’S MILITARY
Sources say the fall of Bahkmut triggered a revolt inside UKRAINE’S military. “A spontaneous uprising among generals after the fall of Bahkmut allowed an ‘anti-war pro peace with Russia’ faction to seize power.”
— iSource News (@isource_news) May 21, 2023″ ”
But then there is also mention of eastern European discussions on a cease fire
Hitchhikers Guide. This first appeared as a radio serial. I know that’s hard to imagine in the US, but we still have them here. By chance, back in 1977/8, we didn’t have a TV so I happened to catch the first episode the first time it was broadcast on the BBC. The soundtrack-only version is the best. Better than the books, which came later, better than the TV (and wasn’t there a movie?). I also had it on 33rpm vinyl, two albums. The later one I stood in line to have it signed by Douglas Adams. Nice chap, very tall.
Anyhow, we are all ruled by B-Arkers now.
@Rhoda; somehow I see Douglas Adams in the character Arthur Dent… and yes, I wish TPTB would go back to their true calling, viewing moodily-lit tubes of toothpaste :) (and Biden certainly fits the role of the eternally-tubbed Captain..)…. We certainly have our share over here in beautiful downtown Deutschland, where fairy-story authors can become finance/business ministers whilst enriching their friends… and party Komrades can “earn” €30K per month despite having neither degree nor certificate/apprenticeship (Ausbildung)… Plenty of *cough* green there…
I think the radio scripts (or most of them, anyway) are online, Fit the First, etc., easy to go to when I want to quote something. I got the books back in the early 1980s, in the UK English version… seems the American set I have is somehow different, maybe not just the spelling, either…
A great talent, lost all too soon…
@Ossqss re tankless heaters – While snowbirding, we have people in that need hot water as well as water for other things. Otherwise, I’d just shut off the main and drain the lines before leaving.
I was considering going tankless/on demand with that replacement, but I didn’t have the time to fuss with it before leaving. I’ll probably change it out in a couple of years.
Meanwhile, this new one is so well insulated that once heated (it has a ‘vacation’ setting, kind of like sleep mode) it hardly uses any energy at all to maintain temperature.
But… this ol’ house will be getting a tankless heater next time around.
@another ian re Ukraine pro-Russia (?!?) generals taking over the military
Of course it’s best not to believe anything from any of the parties involved in the US vs Russia war with Ukraine as proxy for the US.
I don’t know that it necessarily has to be pro-Russia generals that would get fed up with politicians running the war. Ukraine’s top, brilliant general is out of action and might never return.
I’d imagine that after Bakhmut, the remaining generals are asking themselves “all this for what?” Sometimes the smart move is to walk away to live to fight another day.
Given that the whole area, Poland, Ukraine, and some of the smaller countries have been beating up on and invading each other for centuries, I could see some very patriotic generals deciding that the country has lost too many of the men needed for the future of Ukraine. So why not call it quits for a generation or two and have another go at Russia in 60 or 80 years?
One thing I do know is that Generals absolutely hate politicians running wars, and the Ukraine military generals may have finally had enough of the US and NATO politicians running this war (and fighting Russia down to the last Ukrainian soldier).
We’ll have to wait and see because Western media will not be reporting on this at all, true or not.
It will be very interesting to see what happens during the next few months. I feel the comparison 50 000 Ukrainians versus 500 000 Russians to be very improbable … why?
The reason is that my country Finland with a population of 5.5 million is able to set up an army of 280 000 men very fast with a reserve of som 900 000. As is fairly well known we have experienced what Ukraine experiences today.
The will to fight in Ukraine is extremely high. Taking the Finnish army as an example Ukraine with a population roughly 10x Finland’s should be able to mobilize some 2 000 000 men.
The education level in Ukraine i high. Many of the tanks Russia today uses to fight Ukraine are actually built in Ukraine in the Soviet time.
Russians have unfortunately succeeded in producing a level of hatred towards Russia that is difficult to fathoom that will last for generations just like it was in Finland (a Finnish saying was:”A russian is a russian even when boiled in butter” meaning do not ever trust …).
As I stated earlier the next months will be very interesting. It will also be interesting to see if Russia has a new Afghanistan meaning will they retreat with the tail between the legs or are they stupid enough to use nuclear weapons?
rhoda klapp: “Hitchhikers Guide. This first appeared as a radio serial. […] The soundtrack-only version is the best. Better than the books, which came later, better than the TV (and wasn’t there a movie?)
The book is always better than the movie (allowing for a rare exception), for a number of reasons. So “never judge a book by its cover” is now “never judge a book by its movie”. And don’t get me started on comic books. (‘graphic novels” in new-speak)
Wood is buried, so I am putting this item here. Quite the survey.
https://summit.news/2023/05/22/poll-shows-how-radically-different-americans-opinions-are-from-liberal-corporate-media-narratives/
Actual survey
Click to access HHP_May2023_KeyResults.pdf
It looks like the original Hitchhikers Guide radio broadcasts and their scripts are still available.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hitchhiker%27s_Guide_to_the_Galaxy:_The_Original_Radio_Scripts
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hitchhiker%27s_Guide_to_the_Galaxy_(radio_series)
British comedy, not to be confused with American comedy or science fiction.
Reading or listening to the audio of stories like this makes use of your imagination,
unlike with visual media where everything is instantiated for you already.
@E.M. “You can not piss on people (or countries) to make them your friends.”
You may have hit on the problem. Our Western leaders are all sexual deviants, pedophiles, sadists, and homoerotic masochists. All this time they have been under the misapprehension that pissing on people was, in fact, a very effective way of getting people to like them.
“But at some point I need to address the problem… squeak by on no A/C or go whole house?…”
Or maybe split the difference. Shut off the AC, get a smaller generator for lights, fans and refrigerator. Then set up a small room (bedroom?) with a very small window unit AC and any sort of temporary movable insulation to cut down on heat flow. Retreat to your cool room as needed. Otherwise, circulate air and don’t be afraid to keep yourself and your clothes damp with a squirt bottle. Even with Florida’s high humidity, staying damp with a fan works. Become a walking swamp cooler.
@TTN:
Good point about the sexual deviant / emotional pervert types having confusion about what discomfort / pain does to normals…
BTW, I can likely do a kind of “cool room” with the garage. It has a 20 amp 110/VAC wall mount (window without the window?) AC. Cars have nice reclining bucket seats and / or place to put a bed with rear deck folded down. Plus AM / FM entertainment ;-)
I think I’ll just plan that as the emergency cooling if we end up in a problem before I have a formal solution…
I have 2 portable AC units on wheels. A 12k and a 14K BTU and they can cool my whole house (at least dehumidify). One draws 8 amps and the other 9.7 amps at start up. They run at less than that. Both have twin tube designs, but I typically only use one. It is like using the recycling button on your car AC.
Last hurricane I ran the 14k unit and fridge and large freezer and TV, lights etc. with the 4k genny no problem.
Example of what I refer to.
https://www.bjs.com/product/frigidaire-12000-btu-cool-only-portable-air-conditioner—white/3000000000003404255
Don’t know why but that link appears to have broken in WordPress.
@Ossqss:
I think that’s the winner idea! I can easily store it in my shed and roll it out when / if needed.
We used something similar (though I think it was a little physically bigger and more industrial looking) when the AC went out in the computer room at work some decades ago… IIRC, we put the cold hose into the room and the hot air exhaust hose into the ceiling plenum to “somewhere” ;-0
I’d likely make a panel to fit into the sliding door to the Florida room and send exhaust there, cool air hose into the kitchen / LR area with main bath and bedroom one door away. That would cool the center of the house and we could close off the 1/2 that’s the offices, guest room, 2nd bath, laundry, etc. with just a single hallway {drape, styro panel, whatever}.
That sounds a whole lot easier, cheaper, and “doable” than a 20 KW Diesel Standby set on a 100 gallon fuel bunker on a concrete pad ;-)
The link worked for me, but gave a photo and $/month payments while demanding a “login” to see the “‘special member price”… looks like about $600 at Best Buy:
https://www.bestbuy.com/site/ge-550-sq-ft-14000-btu-portable-air-conditioner-with-remote-white/6481189.p?skuId=6481189
FWIW – Nord Stream scuttlebutt via Covid and Coffee
I was logged in when I copied the link. Doh!
That unit is $399 there. It does come with an adjustable window adapter that is maybe 36-42″ or so fully extended.
I have placed it in the sliding doors on the porch and used a piece of wood above it. I always seal it when installed with painters’ tape to minimize leakage wherever it goes in.
In all the fog of war, one thing is crystal clear. This war will not end anytime soon, because neither side wants it to end. Z will fight until victory in Crimea. P will fight until Z stops fighting. Z won’t stop until the US and Europe stop supporting him.
Which evidently until the US and Europe collapse.
https://www.skynews.com.au/insights-and-analysis/massive-conventional-attack-the-us-has-told-russia-through-back-channels-what-america-would-do-if-putin-uses-tactical-nuclear-weapons-in-ukraine/news-story/02047a613a3b687bba713492540142a2
@YMMV:
The way out is simple and clear. Medvedev even said it:
“Negotiations will happen at the Polish border”
There is nobody for Putin & Russia to negotiate with. ALL the Western players have shown themselves to be liars with the Minsk Deal being nothing but a ploy to prepare Ukraine for a war with Russia. Russia now knows this.
So, with NO trust and NO trustworthy counterparty to discussions / negotiations: There will be none.
That leaves military destruction of one or both parties.
The West figured on an easy Color Revolution tossing out Putin after their economy collapsed and a few Wonder Weapons resulted in a Russian Military Embarrassment. Unfortunately “sanctions” have only hurt the EU and made a very strong Russia / China / India economic alliance. Then, popular support for Putin is at about 80%. So “No color revolution for you, EU!” And Russia having a much better economic performance than most of the EU or USA. So destruction of Putin is a nogo.
Russia is about 10 x the size of the current Ukraine, so no way Ukraine wins a protracted war of attrition. Which means Russia Wins. Which also means Russia can proceed to the Polish Border and Rump Ukraine is only what Putin says it is. USA & EU be damned.
So the way out is Russia completely defeats Ukraine, hives off the bits with Russian population of long historically part of Russia, and Rump Ukraine is a NATO buffer.
E.M.
From https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-52023-bakhmut-falls-artemovsk
On F16’s
“One could argue, that the Block 50/52s can also carry Aim-120 Amraams which could give Russian jets problems. But there are many issues with this. First of all, the F-16s would still be massively outnumbered in a contested space which is unfavorable to them in every possible way. Not only do Russian patrol craft like the Su-35 carry missiles superior to the Aim-120 Amraam, such as the Vympel R-37M, but they’re backed by a variety of long range Russian assets which aid them, like the S-400s, A-50U AWACs, etc. This gives them every conceivable advantage over Ukraine’s lone F-16s in contested space. Not to mention the fact that the Aim-120s were already said to be ad hoc’d onto the Mig-29s anyway, and they haven’t done anything with them.”
Somewhere there was a comparison of radar systems that I can’t find ATM so not sure if the Russian airborne radar is also ahead.
Found it – wasn’t F 16 comparison
“For instance, one theory being promulgated is that Ukraine “ambushed” this group with Mig-29s armed with new American long range Aim-120 Amraam missiles. These missiles are fancy and advanced, but the problem is, it doesn’t matter how powerful your missiles are if your aircraft’s radar is the weak bottleneck. The Mig-29’s radar is infamously lackluster compared to the Russian Su-35 that was in the air. Many comparison videos have previously been made but the disparity is something along the lines of: the Su-35 with its famed Irbis-E radar can detect the Mig-29 at something like 250-400km while the Mig can only detect the Su-35 at maybe 60-120km at the most, give or take.”
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/black-day-for-russian-vvs-as-special
Then this –
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AN/APG-83 – range 370 km
If you are looking at the shoot down of, what was it, 4 ? Russian aircraft in one go:
The present assertion is that this was a “Friendly Fire” incident and the Ukrainians are taking credit for a Russian Aw Shit. Russia did return to flying a lot of gear rather quickly after a very short pause to ask “What happened”…
E.M.
I was looking for a potential comparison of F 16 and Su 35
From those pieces looks about equal in radar with Russia having longer range airborne missiles.
Fish in a bucket? Maybe.
A piece for comparison
“SITREP 5/24/23: UA’s Desperate Border Stunt Ends With Large Losses”
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-52423-uas-desperate-belgorod
FWIW
“THE CURE FOR UKRAINE WAR FEVER HAS BEEN DISCOVERED!”
https://richardsonpost.com/howellwoltz/31758/the-cure-for-ukraine-war-fever-has-been-discovered/
There is nobody for Putin & Russia to negotiate with. ALL the Western players have shown themselves to be liars with the Minsk Deal being nothing but a ploy to prepare Ukraine for a war with Russia. Russia now knows this.
Not to disagree, but Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban usually says smart things. Recently he said it is the US that Russia can negotiate with. Makes sense, this is really a US proxy war. The US controls NATO, or at least dominates it, and NATO is a big part of Russia’s complaint. (But can the US negotiate in good faith?)
Here are more of his comments.
https://www.rt.com/news/576767-hungary-ukraine-cant-win-orban/
Hungary is officially neutral.