The Idiots In Charge (I.I.C.) have, in my opinion, screwed the pooch on the economy. How?
First off, way too much debt and way too much deficit spending.
Then, you can not just shut down an economy for a year or two and expect it to bounce right back. Companies go out of business and are just gone. Employees in a shutdown industry move to something else. Debt rises and banks learn not to lend. Bankruptcies dispose assets (that sometimes just get trashed or recycled for scrap) and now you take a few years to re-make those physical assets (if ever…)
Then the I.I.C. simply are not aware of the difference between a ‘financial asset’ and a ‘real physical asset’. It is all fine and good to say “toss $million at the shortage of FOO”, but if there is no more FOO Factories to make more FOO, you are all in deep FOO Doo. Plan on a few years to make (or re-make) that factory.
Now season that with a few decades of NIMBY Laws & Agencies Obstruction Rules, spice it up with some Gang Green “protests” and you can end up strangled in your own red tape.
So, OK, the Federal I.I.C. tossed a bunch of $Billions at telling people not to work and having businesses go out of business. This, obvious to anyone but those I.I.C., will cause massive inflation. (LOTS of people with ‘free money’ chasing far fewer goods & services since the companies were not making things assures it goes into increased prices). Then, The Fed was holding interest rates near zero for a few years that also added inflationary pressure.
OK, forward to just a year or so ago, The Fed suddenly decides that interest rates need to rise to “curb inflation”. Just how this will create (or re-create) all the businesses they put out of business, and all the jobs that were lost, and all the missing product that wasn’t made; well, that’s unclear at best. But what it will do is cause a whole lot of consumer demand for things bought “on credit” to evaporate and a whole lot of demand for “business loans”‘ to stock inventory, build facilities, and increase production to go away too. So that’s what they did.
5 Year Fed Rates
Now The Fed has about a 6 month lag between what they do and when it hits the physical economy. This crowd of chumps went on the “1/4 point a meeting until we SEE the result” path. That puts them about 6 months overshot on their actions. Ooops…
So for a year or two, you could make cars with zero interest costs for inventory, and buy a car for near zero interest rate on the car loan. Needles to say, the Car Companies pumped up the prices to Crazy Town. $100,000+ for a Pickup Truck? Uh, yeah…
But now? Well first off, a whole lot of “pull demand forward” happened during near zero rates. Folks are pretty much loaded up on cars. Go to buy a new car now, you are asked to pay 6% or more on a $100,000 loan. Call it 1/2%/month. That’s $500 / month just for the interest. Between already up to their ears in debt from a couple of years of slowed economy and shut businesses, and not having an extra $500 / month to put on the next car payment, AND having a workable car already: The Car Market is toast ATM. Now mix in the Government DEMAND that dealers sell the E-Cars and E-Trucks that a lot of folks (most folks?) do not want… Dealers are in deep trouble. Many choosing to go out of business rather than “convert to EVs” (FORD is asking dealers to sink about $1 Million into chargers and such at the dealership…)
End result is crashing used car prices, dealers making “deals” on new cars, and car lots filled with inventory (now being carried with a 6% rate to carry… if they are lucky and get a good rate…). Not good for car dealers and used car lots.
Which means folks can’t get a decent price for their trade in either… and that the used car auctions are failing to move cars…
This is what it looks like when The Fed raises rates too far too fast and the overshoot takes 6 to 9 months to show up and dissipate. We have a major whipsaw from ZERO to OMG in just a few months, and now the hangover has hit.
Something similar is starting in housing, though it is slower and takes longer to get started. So watch that space…
Sidebar On China:
One other amusement is that the I.I.C. seem to remember their Econ Theory that says when rates rise industrial production slows down and the economy slows, but have forgotten that they outsourced most of the production to China. So that policy lever no longer does much inside the USA. However, China took it in the chops. Evergrand has gone under, loads of “supply chain problems” whacked various industries, and both Chinese exports and tourism took a big hit. At the same time The FED were overshooting rates in the USA due to the displacement of that production outside of the country. BUT, where we still had some production (cars and houses) took a whipsaw hit. We’ll see how this sorts out. Near as I can remember, none of my Econ training had a case where one country did almost all the producing and another country did almost all the consumption based on debt…
So here’s a video where a smaller dealer shows what is going on right now. Up front is a fascinating demonstration of “Slow Learners” at Carvana. Buying a jeep “used” for more than a new one would cost from the dealer (following old rules from a couple of years ago) and then a description of what is happening now. All three major USA car dealers pulling ads from the SuperBowl… ’cause stuff just is not selling.
FWIW, on EwTube, I am getting mostly Cadillac ads (no way in hell I’m buying any GM Government Motors anything) and FORD Dealer ads pushing trucks (where there’s no way I’m spending $70k to $100K+ for a pickup truck). More car ads than anything else, I think. So lots of local dealer ads still.
Then there are two other problems. A LOT of folks do not want cars that track them everywhere and report it to anyone interested. I’m not buying anything newer than 2008 ever. I’m not even keeping my 2008 if the market ever recovers. Then there’s even more intrusive tracking coming BY LAW in the near future.
And….. Spouse and I did a test drive in a new Subaru a couple of years ago. Just about everything was controlled via a computer tablet. Not only do I NOT want a 9 to 12 inch tablet killing my night vision while driving, we could not get the radio to shut off. Even pulled over to work on it. Eventually just got the volume turned down to near nothing. I DO NOT WANT to have a car where I must learn a new operating system to get my butt to the hospital in an emergency.
I don’t know how many surly curmudgeons there are like me, but that percentage of the market will not be buying those new cars. I don’t need 4 computers, 20 electric motors driving everything, and a $5000 wiring harness on the tail lights; all to fail and be replaced. I need a reliable and easy low cost to repair vehicle with robust performance in degraded condition and reliable “get me to emergency services” from the middle of nowhere when things go bad.
At present, I have 3 Mercedes with various minor motor controls out on things like side mirrors, rear hatch closers, and more. Getting them fixed is proving problematical (either due to parts unavailable or $Thosands for “assemblies” and installation). I’d rather have a little lever on the side mirror directly, or even a mirror I can just reach out and move (and have it stay where put). Over design and Over Featured is a thing, and not a good one.
So add to vendor woes all the folks who took the Feature Ride and now say “never again”…
FWIW, I’m thinking a nice late ’70s Diesel Ford Pickup might end up being my “Next Car”… No “rules”. No “parts issues” (as you can make just about any part on it). No “fussy motors, computers, CAN Busses and other electronic bits” to fail… Almost bought something like that 2 years ago, so they are still out there. And $500 / month will pay for a lot of body paint, upholstery, tune ups and repairs…
Musings from the Chiefio 
After a disaster with a used Chrysler, we had to buy another vehicle. That was late 2018. We got a decent enough deal and just a couple of payments left on it. Sadly, the insurance cost has nearly doubled. I expect the new rate to be a bit more than $200 a month at renewal. Family wants me to keep the full coverage (grumble). We have quite a few older cars that are in various stages of restoration. After house work gets done, we plan on restoring one or more of those older cars and they are 2003s and older. Some are classic muscle cars. Some are just classics (64s). (Man I am sorry I sold my 1968 Galaxie 500, which was the first car I bought and paid for it.)
The car market has pissed off many over the last few years. $5k market upcharges, $2k mandatory dealer options etc.. I have been in the market for a car for a couple years, but found no flavor dealer that is acceptable.
Oh, and beware if you send an inquiry on anything through a dealer site. The Wolves along with the Piranha’s come at you from all digital directions, fast.
Here’s a surprise … they do make what you want. Spoiler: you just can’t get it.
https://www.roadandtrack.com/reviews/a45752401/toyotas-10000-future-pickup-truck-is-basic-transportation-perfection/
https://www.motortrend.com/reviews/2025-toyota-imv-0-pickup-truck-first-drive-review-japan-mobility-show/
Per the statement “FWIW, I’m thinking a nice late ’70s Diesel Ford Pickup”, why specifically diesel or ford from a mechanic person?
-@mddwave:
The 7.3 L Ford Diesel was one of the last ‘million mile engines’ that did not require DEF, had no computer, and just worked. The only other comparable engine was the early Dodge Cummins (pre “common rail”) and all mechanical and prior to the 12 valve issues – that I’d also be OK with, FWIW, but the FORD is easier to find and cheaper to buy. Made by Navistar as a common commercial truck engine of the day, IIRC, though perhaps with some variation in minor parts.
From those 2 engines on, going forward, Diesel Engines from all the typical makers went down hill on reliability and repair costs.
Since a Whole Lot More of that era FORDs were made, than the Dodge trucks, it is a lot easier to find one still running and at more reasonable prices.
I’d also be fine with a Detroit Diesel in an RV from that era too. Another legendary “Million Mile” engine…
From that point on, going forward in time, engines get crappier. Common Rail problems first. Then DEF and electronic / computer engine management systems all at failure points. Then other cost reduction changes continued the run to excess failures.
Oh, and GM of the era made a LOT of crap. Even if sometimes you got a good engine, the rest of the vehicle was just wanting to become a rust bucket. I had the opportunity to buy a GM Suburban Diesel for cheap some decades ago. It did not run, as the male spouse had buggered it a little during a divorce fight. I started hooking back up what he had taken apart (starter power cable and similar) and got it to run. In the process, I realized how “cheap crap” the design was and how it was made to fall apart under any stress. So declined to buy it (but handed her a working car).
2 Examples of what was wrong.
1) Even my old Honda Trail 90 had plastic protective covers over spade lug connectors in wires. Maybe 1/10 ¢ each. The GM product had them all out in the elements and dirt / water corrosion. Bad Design. Built to fail.
2) I “bumped” the transmission oil cooler line with an elbow. It popped out of the sheet metal bendy bit “nut” in the side of the oil cooler. WT? A BUMP of that line and can pop out and you have zero transmission lube? So several $Thousand repair costs hang on a “sheet metal nut kludge”? Then, to get approval to change that was a big non-op? Just solder a Real Nut on and be done. Maybe 1% of cost for the bad solution. And fairly easy one as needed.
If I had the time and energy…and a garage…and if they even made the parts for that anymore (?)
I d convert my car , I would remove the fuel injection system, all sensors and everything and would install a carburator.
I know that fuel injection is in some ways better, but that is mostly as far as fuel economy is concerned,
my problem is not so much the fuel injection itself,
it is all the many sensors that are in turn affected by other sensors that send too much information to the ECU, that then – like a jury panel – decides if when you open the throttle halfway they will or will not allow the injector to also open halfway as your gas pedal is asking them to do… …. or if based on how much oxygen it sees after the catalytic converter, what temperature the air is in the intake manifold, what level of vaccuum is in the intake manifold and about a dozen other signal they may refuse to open the injectors as much as your gas pedal ( or throttle position sensor is asking )
for example,
if one of your two oxygen sensors fails, the one before or the one after the cat converter, the ECU will see it and make your car less responsive, less powerfull until you fix it.
in other words the ECU fabricates or manufactures or creates a symptom that makes things worse.
of course those who are not into that stuff, probably think I am wrong, but I am not
when cars had carburators, and no ECU, if you had an exhaust leak, or your air filter was very dirty and less air was coming, of course those things had a little bit of an effect on performance or behavior, but there was not a computer to make it worse
on modern cars some sensors if they fail, the car ECU will go to ” limp home mode” and make your car painfully weak and slow ; it creates a symptom worse than the actual problem !!!
and i hate that !
and by the way what they call Air Mass Sensors are not ( some of you are probably rolling your eyes but it is ok ! lol!)
be it older or newer air mass sensors, what they measure is air temperature…the old ones were using a heated wire, and as air would come in as you opened the throttle it would cool down the heated wire, the sensor would see it and say ; ok air is coming in NOW you can open the injectors!
even though cold air is denser that hot air, that is still not a mass air sensor, it was measuring air temperature,
and it caused the heated wire to take longer to cool down
in summer when the air is hot, the heated wire takes longer to cool down thus ECU opens your injectors more slowly, which in turn means air is coming not as fast, thus cannot cool down the heated wire as fast; it causes a symptom worse than it actually is !
newer car use a combination of two sensors to supposedly measure air mass; one is the MAP ; it measures pressure or vacuum in the intake manifold, the other one is a simple temperature sensor; its resistance varies with temperature
but again that creates a symptom that is artificial
on a hot summer day after sitting at a red light, everything under the hood is hotter, so when you open the trhottle it sucks in hotter air, the temperature sensors sees that and says ; open the injector more slowly than the gas pedal is asking….which in turn makes vacuum level change more slowly inside the intake….which in turn the computer sees as a reason to slow down how fast the injestors should be opened
I forgot to mention; there is a little motor inside the throttle body of modern fuel injection cars, when you depress the gas pedal halfway or 3/4 or go to full open; depending on what the many sensors see and what the jury panel inside the ECU has decided the little motor may open the throttle plate less than you asked or open it very slowly
but by doing that it causes sensors to see changes that are slow, which tells it to keep opening the plate and the injectors slowly …
I have owned 5 different cars that had fuel injection and an ECU and all of them on hot summer days were more sluggish
I have owned two cars with carburators, and on hot summer days the difference was so small i d say it was imperceptible
Maybe on very expensive sports or luxury cars they have a more sophisticated and better system and it ignores the hot air and behaves like a carburator ; when you go full throttle, it goes full throttle…but on ordinary cars, on hot summer days the system makes the car more sluggish.
and if one sensor is slightly out of whack, the ECU creates a worse symptom than the actual problem would cause.
if the ECU does not like what it sees it may even change shift points on your automatic transmission until you repair the faulty sensor; it creates a symptom worse than the actual problem would cause
on a carburated car, if there was an exhaust leak or intake manifold leak , or something like that, the transmission did not make it worse, it did what it had to do.
I could go on with other examples, I have been tweaking cars since I was 18 back in 1978 and I hate modern cars.
I more than hate them I think a lot of it is very stupid ; the ECU making the symptom worse than it should be is plain stupid.
when one of your oxygen sensor fails, the main reason the ECU freaks out and reduces power or responsiveness is that your car is emitting more ” man made global warming stuff”, and the ECU cannot tolerate that !
it is not that your engine is about to explode or that you are in mortal danger…it is mainly ” save the planet” stuff.
I would have more to say but that comment is already way too long !
I miss my carburated cars…
@Canadian Friend:
The older Mercedes, roughly pre-1988 or so, had mechanical fuel injection. It might have even carried forward to about 1993 (I think my 1993 is mechanical…) so no ECU involved. Still has some kind of O2 sensor (though I think only one?) and a “mass flow sensor” that I think is a little vane in the air flow … always responsive and always reliable in my experience. Only downside is that the USA mandated “no changing fuel mix ratio”, so the cover over the fuel mix screw must be drilled if the mix is too lean…. (but don’t let the “smog check” folks discover that in California, as that’s a “crime” there…) FWIW, I have 2 cars with that fuel injection system.
Per “modern” sensors:
For over a YEAR, my 2008 ML Diesel was sporadically shutting off the Turbo. It would still drive, but about like an old VW Microbus. OK… Mercedes Dealer wanted $9000 to replace everything from the Turbo to the EGR to the sensors… 2 other mechanics looked it over (one disassembling the turbo, pronouncing everything FINE and put it back together). I resorted to the Forums…
Found a couple of folks who said the “mass flow sensor” on theirs was lying to the ECU that was told the air flow was not what the boost setting ought to provide, so shut down the turbo… Oh, and a stop, turn off, restart cycle would give good performance and working turbo again… End Game: Replaced “air mass sensor” for $300 installed and everything is fine again.
I hate sensors and ECUs…
BUT, in many cars they have replaced mechanical parts with electronic so you can’t just cut out the ECU. Distributor / timing replaced by crank shaft position sensor and computer deciding what timing to use… for example.
I have 3 out of 7 cars with ECU. The 4 without are the most reliable and cheapest to fix.
yes a small often inexpensive sensor can cause big problems or big symptoms that may be mistaken for the need to replace thousands of dollars of parts.
Or a not too honest mechanic who knows the problem but wants to make more money could lie and say you need a new $ 4000 thingamajig that requires 5 hours of labor on which he makes a more interesting profit than on replacing a $ 300 sensor in 15 minutes.
The OBD codes help but only to a point.
for example the code may say bad O2 sensor, but maybe it is the wires that are bad, or corrosion inside the connector…or a gutted cat converter ( been there done that ! lol!)
Speaking of that,
on older carburated cars , when you made the exhaust less restrictive, like gutting the catalytic converter, the car became a tad quicker -faster…that is why all race cars have loud exhaust; less restrictive means more power. It is physics, it is science. it is logical.
but on new cars gutting the cat converter sends a signal that something is not right and the ECU REDUCES power.
Basically the ECU takes the laws of physics and flips them upside down! ( well… kind of anyway )
On older cars it was simple and logical ; more air in, and more exhaust out = more power
on new cars it means ; there is a problem, lets open the injectors a bit less until this is fixed!
Forgot to mention,
one of my modern cars had the Vane system to measure air, and it worked better than all others ! and it was the only one not affected by sitting at a red light on a hot summer day!
the vane being a mechanical thing, made the car behave a bit more as if it had a carburator…
when I modified the air box and installed an air filter almost two times larger and installed a rudimentary home made ram air system, the car became more responsive, had better acceleration, it also sounded better as I could hear the air coming in as a mild growling.
But if you read about why they stopped using vanes for fuel injection , they say that sensors are much more precise…
by that they mean better at fuel economy ( but not by much ) and better at finding the perfect mix of air and fuel to emit as little co2 as possible and “save the planet ” ( when cars emit what ? not even 2 % of the entire planet’s co2? )
ok… great…but they do not make driving more pleasant though, not at all.
and for weekend mechanics, they are only a pain in the butt.
I have a 2018 Outback, and I’ve never figured out how to turn it, other than shutting down the whole touch screen. If you push the volume button, you mute the radio, but it comes back on then next time you start the car.
Also, changing DST to ST and back is a long journey through menus.
China still has 600 million people to bring up tp the Western European life style enjoyed by the other 800 million, so a lot of their manufacturing output can be sopped up domestically.
E.M. Smith’s breakdown of the current state of the car market is eye-opening and makes me question the decisions of the “Idiots In Charge.” The article explains in simple terms how the economy has been mishandled, leading to a rapid shift in the car market. The author’s frustration with the government’s economic policies is palpable and relatable, resonating with readers who may be feeling the impact of rising interest rates. The real-world examples and insights into the challenges faced by car dealers and buyers add a personal touch to the article, making it engaging and easy to understand. The use of humor and straightforward language keeps it entertaining while shedding light on the complexities of economic decisions. It’s a wake-up call for readers to think about the consequences of policy choices on everyday aspects of life, like buying a car. Overall, a well-written and insightful piece that leaves the reader with a lot to ponder. Great job!
@E.M.Smith
Thanks for the info
Side note. I went to my local county representative to learn about emissions testing to control the county air quality. I learned. Since 1996 models, there is essentially no exhaust testing done by garages per se. They just plug in the car computer because all the sensors are built into the car. They run car at a few settings.
I suspect in the future, the car will upload your performance data to the county database. Or better yet, the car computer will switch so that the you can only drive 50? Miles to “go to shop” mode to be fixed.
@mddwave:
Depends on the State here. In California, up until I left, you took the car to a “Testing Only” station (no repairs, gas sales, etc.) and they stuck a tube up the tail pipe and sniffed the gasses coming out.
Florida: Paid a “Smog impact fee” on bringing the car into State. Nothing at all done after that. (No part of Florida is more than about 50 miles to the sea, so smog all just blows away rapidly).
I think the comment by “DC Implant & Cosmetic Dentistry” is AI generated.
@DC Implant & Cosmetic Dentistry
how is a raven like a writing desk?
@jim2 shh…
Well, I parted ways with my 2013 MKT yesterday. I am gonna miss that armrest fridge/freezer, but not the constant need for repair that drove me to a different car.
Was able to capitalize on a new used Rav4 limited that had only 2,000 miles on it and was born 6 months ago with an 84-month bumper to bumper warranty. Saved about 15k over the same thing brand new.
Now if I could just find the funds for this 2024 Sequoia TRD Pro, I would be happy!
@Ossqss – What color is the new beastie?
RAV4s started out as little personal 4×4 SUVs and were pretty basic. I think the idea was to compete with Jeep. Great cars, they were.
Now the RAV4s are larger and have all the toys, but the same is true for Jeeps. I think you can still get both as more basic boxes, but you have to order those. I don’t see them on the car lots.
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I’ll have to come down for a visit and check it out. Fantasy season is over, the kids are back to school. and the new gig has probably settled out to being a bit more routine.
I’ll give you a shout next week and see if we can schedule something. I’ll come down bearing Buckeyes. Just say the word and I’ll lie to the Mrs. and your neighbors and say I forgot to bring any. Oh, never mind. They’ll all check your hiding places anyhow just in case I was lying.
@jim2: RE the AI comment, yes, 100%. I am seeing rather a lot of articles that I suspect are AI generated. I see odd linguistic errors, For example, I often see wrong pronouns; “he” in one paragraph, “she” in the next. Not the sort of error a sex based biological organism makes.
@Jim2:
Almost certainly. That’s what I figured when I first saw it. I “let it through” mostly because I want to see how it follows up. Then, the blatant flattery didn’t hurt ;-) BTW, that’s one of my flags for SPAM stuff – lots of blatant flattery for effect. That’s usually enough for me to just leave them in the SPAM folder and flush it… But this one struck me as A.I. (mostly due to the included “read the posting” quotes instead of just unrelated text) so decided to “fish a little” and see what bites…
Eventually, if or when it becomes problematic, I’ll put in a “rule” to just ban / flush it all. But for now… the game is on! Step One: Observe your opponent. Learn how it acts, “thinks”, moves. Let it enter the “Honey Pot” (or in this case, the real space with observation acting as a Honey Pot)
@HR, we will get something scheduled later this month. Lots of relateds and activities the next couple weeks.
Another signs of the times..
Electric van maker once valued at £10bn collapses into administration
A British electric van maker once valued at $13bn (£10bn) has gone into administration after burning through $1.5bn without having sold a vehicle. Oxfordshire-based Arrival has appointed administrators at EY to find a buyer for the business, blaming “challenging market and macroeconomic conditions”. Arrival’s Nasdaq flotation in 2021 was the biggest ever for a British company but shares have fallen by 99.98pc as it became clear that the company was unable to service its debts.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/05/electric-van-maker-arrival-collapses-administration/
@Ossqss – Same here, which is why I haven’t called so far this year. Matter of fact, one of the ‘relateds’ is sitting here right now watching TV :o)
We’ll talk.