Bruckner 35 year climate cycles and solar drivers

Somehow I’d never heard of a “Bruckner” cycle. (Properly Brückner)

It looks like they’ve been known since the late 1800s, and are still being talked about. The basic idea is a roughly 30-34 year and / or 45 year periodicity of weather (climate) that is sort of a harmonic of solar cycles / sunspot cycles. Gee, the sun driving our climate, who knew? …

This article claims the same / similar cycle shows up in all sorts of interesting places (thus a big “Dig Here!” for later)

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
December 2010, Volume 46, Issue 7, pp 844-864
First online: 24 December 2010

Thirty-five-year climatic cycle in heliogeophysics, psychophysiology, military politics, and economics

F. Halberg , G. Cornélissen, R. B. Sothern, J. Czaplicki, O. Schwartzkopff

Cycles of about 35 years found in the climate by Brückner and Egeson were aligned with periodic changes in the length of the solar cycle by the Lockyers. The solar-cycle length and climate were subsequently revisited without reference to any cyclicity or those who discovered it. The descriptive statistics of Bruckner and Lockyer were repeatedly questioned and, with notable exceptions, have been forgotten. Bruckner’s data, taken from his summary chart, are shown here for the first time inferentially statistically validated as nonstationary (to the point of intermittency) and, as transdisciplinary, extending from meteorology to 2556 years of international battles; to 2189 years of tree rings; to ∼900 years of northern lights; to 400 years of economics; to 173 years of military affairs; and to ∼40 years of helio-, interplanetary- and geomagnetics matching a longitudinal record by a healthy individual who self-measured his heart rate and mental functions (with a 1-min time estimation), among other variables. Space weather, mirrored in the circulation of human blood, can be tracked biologically as a dividend from self-assessed preventive health care including the automatically and ambulatory-recorded heart rate and blood pressure for detecting and treating heretofore ignored vascular variability disorders. A website providing free analyses for anyone (in exchange for their data) could serve any community with computer-savvy members and could start focusing the attention of the population at large on problems of societal as well as individual health. Space weather was found to affect the human cardiovascular system, and it has been supposed that data on space weather can be inversely assimilated from biological self-monitoring data.

35-year cycle climatic changes multidisciplinary data automatic system of self-assessed health care

But this one was the really interesting one:

Here’s a screen shot of the conclusions. They find that the reason it has a couple of various lengths is due to there being different harmonics interacting during periods of high and low sunspots. I think this matters, especially for all the folks who do a simple “looked for one frequency and didn’t find it” as sometimes seen at WUWT:

Bruckner Cycle Periods

Bruckner Cycle Periods

Click to embiggen… and click the page that opens with an almost large copy…

I found the whole article a quick and easy read, and you can download the PDF. It’s a very nice set of thought ticklers in it…

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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9 Responses to Bruckner 35 year climate cycles and solar drivers

  1. erl happ says:

    The nonlinear effect of solar activity on atmospheric processes! Ah, but which atmospheric processes and how? Unless they can describe the mechanism and show it at work its just hand-waving.

  2. Larry Ledwick says:

    It has always struck me as odd that folks want to force behavior of the climate to one or two pure cycles, rather than recognizing that it is far more likely to be a complex wave form of dozens of drivers.

    Your comments about lunar positions (high, low or near distant from earth) solar cycles the one we know the most about 22 odd years for the full solar cycle but a look at the sun spot plots show there is a strong likelihood of one or more longer cycles. Now throw in harmonics of all those plus what we have not recognized it strikes me as silly to think there are just a couple drivers.

    As the old saying says circles within circles.
    Interesting note that 2016 – 17.5 comes out to 1998.5 — might be worth looking at the long record of el nino behavior (and other ocean cycles) with the Bruckner cycles in mind.

  3. A C Osborn says:

    “erl happ says:
    29 February 2016 at 2:47 am

    The nonlinear effect of solar activity on atmospheric processes! Ah, but which atmospheric processes and how? Unless they can describe the mechanism and show it at work its just hand-waving.

    Please do the same for Gravity.
    Please do the same for Dark Matter.
    Please do the same for Dark Energy.

    Making a note of a phenomenum is still “science” even if not fully understood, whereas making wild assed claims that CO2 controls everything climate is “settled science”.

  4. E.M.Smith says:

    I’d add:

    Please do the same for magnetism.
    Please do the same for the strong force.
    Please do the same for the weak force.
    Please do the same for conservation of energy.
    Please do the same for conservation of angular momentum.
    Please do the same for beta emissions. Both spontaneous and driven.
    Please do the same for photon emissions (including radio waves and xrays and gamma rays).
    Oh heck, just do it for all of quantum mechanics too…

    and in any leftover time, explain it for spin orbit coupling and the photon wave particle duality especially in the context of the two slit experiment.

    You can skip it for quantum entanglement as that is just too strange. Similarly, explaining the mechanism by which time works is likely a bridge too far…

  5. tom0mason says:

    Would be interesting to see how this cycle varies and fits with the other longer term cycles that have also (apparently) affected the environment and humans. Cycles as show here,45,_10.htm

  6. p.g.sharrow says:

    I do not fear for our survival as climate changes. Humanity has survived cold and heat, fills every niche from polar ice to equatorial jungle heat, from swamp to desert. In fact, we evolved out of less adaptive stock during some of the worst conditions of climate change that have existed for the last 5 million years.
    I do greatly fear the lust for power and glory of WarLords as they plunder humanity for their own petty aggrandizement. We must band together and eradicate them and their concept that, Might makes Right…pg

  7. EM, I am no expert on German (do not speak it but can read a little). I believe the double dot over a vowel changes the sound to lengthen and smooth it. The double dot over a u (alt0252) can be written ue so Brückner can be written Brueckner. Have not seen anything about this cycle but I have found on the East Coast of Australia there is a 9 to 11 year cycle of hot & dry leading to bushfires, that would be half of a 18 to 22 year cycle or a quarter of a cycle around 40 years. I have looked at SOI data back to 1887 and have found that consistent negative SOI or El Nino periods seem to average around every 10 years.

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