BREXIT – The night after the morning after

The vote is done and counted. The United Kingdom has chosen “exit”. The wailing and gnashing of teeth has begun.

I’ve had a long enough news cycle to have sampled fairly widely. One surprise was just how snarky / mean the “progressive” media has been. Not only is there a great load of FUD Factor (Fear Uncertainty & Doubt) being pushed (even now that the vote is done) but even the straight stories tend to the mean and nasty.

I also find that I’ve even been pulled in by one of them. Before I’d noticed it was a pattern, I let one of the news “reports” that Scotland was looking for a do-over on their UK Exit Vote and maybe even North Ireland would want to join the Republic Of Ireland, shift my attention. I was busy enjoying the returns on the news and not engaging as many critical faculties as normal ( a few pints of Grolsch will do that to you) and got carried away with the idea of a Gaelic Reunion, inside a Greater UK, in a comment here:

While doing my regular “news cycle” that same idea, that Scotland would exit the UK and “stay” in the EU, and North Ireland would join with the Irish Republic to stay in the EU, came around no less than three times in rapid rotation. On MSNBC, CNN, and PBS. All “left leaning” and strongly pro EU. One of them even had a EUrocrat making the suggestion. They also reported that the EU Ministers were meeting with part of the agenda being to “make it painful” for the UK to exit so that others would be “discouraged”.

Well, it may be a dim lightbulb, but it finally lit up. The E.U. and their sycophants were the ones promoting the dissection of the UK as punishment.

Sidebar on Clubs:

Once upon a time, the kid across the street had a “club”. It was a bit of tacky crap nailed together and to the fence, but it was his “club house”. To join his “club”, you had to do what he said. He said to walk on broken glass he had spread in the alley behind his house. Being all of about 5 years old, I considered it for about 30 seconds. Then declined to join his “club”. Now in my small town, you had a choice of ONE set of folks to know and with which you attended school. Being the same age, I had to cope with this guy for the next dozen years. He decided to be very mean to me ( i.e. be a bully) due to my not wanting to “join his club”. That was my first experience with sociopaths.

Well, after a dozen years + 1 or so, he “woke up dead” out at the river. The story around town was that either the KKK or the Neo-Nazi (back then they were just called Nazi as the Neo part wasn’t around yet) had killed him off for “giving them a bad name”. Yeah, that bad. The local police investigated thoroughly, but could never identify the killer. (That is, they went to the river, looked at him, and said “Yup, looks like it’s him. Looks dead to me.”… Yeah, that bad…)

After a small amount of rejoicing in the town, life moved on. But it left me with a deep appreciation for the sociopathic mind (though I didn’t have the name for it then) and for the idea that any “club” with pain to enter and penalties to exit was no club I ever wanted to be part of.

Back at the EU:

So here we have the EU. It has a load of “pain” to enter. You have to walk on their version of broken glass and be subject to “their rules” (that also includes taking your money – ask Cyprus) and now with talk of “penalties” to exit. Now where have I seen that before…

And it was just these folks that were talking up the dismemberment of the UK so as to carve off chunks of it to keep “in the club”. And I’d not noticed at first blush.

In general, I’ve found that when someone is doing that kind of thing, stating it in public to their face is often the best cure. Shady dealers do not like public view.

The Problem

As I see it, Scotland can’t just “vote to stay” in the EU. That club nas “rules” for joining. As an independent Scotland would be a new country, it could not be just grandfathered in based on a different country.

For North Ireland, it is a more complicated story. While the CNN news had a nice simple graphic showing ALL of North Ireland as “remain”, it was pointed out that was a lie.

h/t Paul, Somerset same thread as above link:

Paul, Somerset says:
24 June 2016 at 11:48 pm

Would US readers please beware of all the maps painting Northern Ireland as entirely “Remain”. They are incorrect. The border areas and a couple of parts of Belfast voted that way. The areas such as Antrim closest to Scotland were solidly “Leave”.
There was no mandate for any unification with the Republic of Ireland, Scotland or anywhere else, and as someone old enough to remember the misery caused by those arguing over that cause in the past, I’d be grateful for it not to be promoted again.

Which has this graph in it:

BREXIT Vote Patterns

BREXIT Vote Patterns

Look closely at North Ireland in the right picture. It is half and half. While the net is for “remain”, it is NOT uniform. There is no consensus in North Ireland for “remain”, so can be no consensus to “stay in the EU” via binding to any other party after cleaving from the UK.

In short, that “scenario” must be a fabrication. The general pattern of mixed yellow and blue is not significantly different from patches of England and Wales.

Now who would want to do that…

The City

In oh so “concerned” a voice, the folks at CNN were terribly worried about The City and went to great lengths to stress that services could not be imported to the EU from outside without a special dispensation (that they called a ‘passport’) and they were certain that would not be issued by Brussels so as to “punish” the UK and discourage others from thinking of exiting. Then time was spent contemplating where to relocate London Financial Services out of London and into the Rump EU. Dublin was suggested, as was France. One even stressed that Switzerland was not allowed to “export services” into the EU.

Unmentioned was that Switzerland seems to be doing fine, thanks…

Then there was pants wetting and hand wringing over the “next two years” of “uncertainty” for businesses and the “30% of employees from other EU nations”. Really? You can’t figure out that having some of them “gone home” is a feature? So pack up the “EU” sales department and send it to a local sales office “back home”. Everyone will be happy.

Oh, and great chalkboards of nails of complaints were spent on how hard and long and drawn out it would be to “negotiate trade deals”. Well, only if you load them up with all sorts of crap like the TPP with secret courts that can enforce climate doctrine. If all you want to is trade there are a few simple paths.

1) Unilaterally state your trade terms. This was common when I was a kid. A country just posts their tariffs, if any, and is done. Things like “10% on manufactures in the FOO industry” and “5% on all other goods” were common (especially where the FOO industry had connections in government). The EU members can accept them and trade, or not sell any Mercedes in the UK.

2) Negotiate a simple direct deal. Don’t make it a Christmas Tree for every loony pathological idea your Staff has, or your political class wants. It doesn’t take long at all to negotiate “We have a zero tariff between the EU and UK, and any goods legal in the EU can be traded”, for example.

Then, my favorite, as it doesn’t need the EUrocrats to do anything:

3) Set in law a “symmetrical tariff scheme”. The UK passes a law that states: For any nation or collection of nations with which no other trade agreement exits, the tariffs on goods imported shall be set to match their tariffs on our exports to them. Any goods forbidden by them for import to them are forbidden for import from them.

Your part is done. They can now choose to pay tariffs, or not.

All up, I’d figure about a week to get #3 passed.

The R.O.W. row

The Rest Of World is just waiting for you to join it. This will cause a row inside the E.U. as you sign up partners and shift focus elsewhere. So what. What are they going to do, kick you out?

So starting Right NOW, send off trade envoys to the FBE Former British Empire. We all know you are looking for action, and we all know that the EU barriers will soon be gone. “Cut deals” that say “Like this now, like that after exit from the EU”. Or just have open trade deals and let the EU swear at you. Why care?

As I read “Article 50” (or at least the summaries of it) they say you have 2 years to “negotiate the terms of exit” and then you are out. It doesn’t say you can’t be out earlier. It doesn’t say you can’t do things while you negotiate. It says that 1/2 the remaining rump nations in the EU have to ratify the new deal for it to be accepted, but doesn’t say you can’t just do what you want anyway. (See item #3 above…)

So draw up a document that says:

In the absence of any other agreement to the contrary, all EU enacted rules, regulations, and laws are rescinded in the UK. Tack on a #3 above. Put in a term about “Non-UK Citizen residents of the UK have a year to apply for a resident work visa or wind up their affairs and depart the country”. Also add one or two lines like those for whatever else I’ve forgotten. Then sign it and ship it. Maybe something like “EU Passport holders will have visa free access to the UK for one year from the BREXIT vote” just to make them feel warm and fuzzy.

You are now “negotiating from strength”. They can choose to cut a better deal with you, or not. Not your problem. As a Sovereign Nation, you get to set your own rules, and you have.

Frankly, I’m not seeing the problem.

The EU are the ones who need to decide the “rules” for UK citizens living outside the UK in the rump EU, not you. They will do what they want anyway, so make it their problem. IF they want to be tough about it on UK citizens, you tighten your terms to match.

I’ve negotiated a LOT of contracts, and the one tool that has done far more for me than any other is the rule of symmetry. Wherever there are two lines of text saying “I get FOO” and “You get BAR”, change them to one line saying “We both get FOO”. Any “you must do FOO” becomes both parties must do FOO. The only real deviation is when real asymmetry exists. So “both parties charge 25% tariff on lamb” doesn’t mean much if you don’t import lamb… Instead, change it to “All agricultural and food products for both parties will have the same tariff of __%” and ask what number they want there…

Generally that cuts negotiation time down “right quick” as most bad things get rapidly removed. The one or two “odd cases” can be resolved fast, then.

I did notice that MSNBC? said fully 1/3 or 1/2 of UK Gin was shipped to the EU. IFF, for whatever reason, they start giving you grief, publicly start negotiating to sell it to the Russians and Chinese. Just state, blandly, that the EU is being a pill about (whatever it is) and that for this reason you have (size of Big Gin) to redirect from them to a new market and invite Russia, China, and “any other interested party” to contact you.

There is nothing like the prospect of no Gin Martinis and no Gin and Tonic to get someone’s attention and cause them to sober up. Voluntarily or not…

To me, it looks like the EU Powers That Be want to play mean and insist you stay in the club or at least walk barefoot on broken glass to get out. Simply pick up their shoes and say “After you”…

Their basic position is “Our Club is Exclusive and YOU can’t play in it without our favor.” Your position of strength is “We have the whole world, your club is cute, but if you don’t want to play fair, well, I’ve got the whole world to deal with… oh, look at the time…”

Financial Markets

First off, they panic over anything. Something like 70% of trades are now done by computers anyway, and they just scan key words and react for news driven events, Then price action drives them into odd extremes on major events. So ignore them for at least a day and a half. (One day already in the bag).

I’m going to do a full on posting a bit later. For now, just look at the top numbers. EU stock markets down about double the UK market. 3.x% and 6.x% tells you that THEY are the ones in trouble, not you.

Talking heads are saying all sorts of silly things. Like that the £ is at levels not seen for a decade or some such. Well, that means it WAS at about that level once before and you did just fine. They also don’t say “crossed against who?” so it really is a useless statement. Against the $US when it is particularly strong? That’s not a £ issue, but a $ issue.

This is a 5 year chart. It is for ETFs. That is colored by the fact that ETFs using futures and similar contracts have a slow decay built in (‘tracking error’) so it isn’t clear if the general downtrend is due to $ strength, or just that this is a 5 year chart and tracking error via fees is adding up. So only look at the relative position of the lines, not the slope per-se.

Yes, the £ is down 10% in $ terms over 5 years. Yes, it took an added 5% plunge down on the news. (That last bar). But look at the Swiss (FXF) Franc and the Euro and the Yen! About a match to the Swissy, beating the Euro handily, and the Yen only started coming up off the floor at the end!

ANY currency that matches the Swiss Franc is NOT a weak currency nor in trouble.

Yes, crossed against the $US and with ETF tracking error / fees, you have a drop. That just means the USA is in trouble with a strong dollar and that over the long term ETFs tend to drift down from fees and leakage.

I hope to find decent long term real currency cross charts this weekend. I don’t normally trade currencies, so need to search a bit.

UPDATE: FX Cross charts are in the followup article:

But even with ETF issues, it is very clear that it isn’t the £ in trouble, but the €.

British Pounds 5 year in $ vs Yen, Swiss, and Euro  ETFs

British Pounds 5 year in $ vs Yen, Swiss, and Euro ETFs

In Conclusion

It sure looks to me like the FUD Machine continues to operate. Deception and dirty tricks are not just for campaigns, it seems.

It is my opinion this will not get better in the next year. Prepare a pound of salt to help ease the attempted force feeding of this kind of thing from the MSM. Mainly Slime Media. Avoid the pants wetters and the chicken littles and “carry on”.

Stride boldly onto the world stage and state that Great Britain is now free to do business with all. Terms available upon request.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in Political Current Events, World Economics and tagged . Bookmark the permalink.

42 Responses to BREXIT – The night after the morning after

  1. omanuel says:

    The NY Times acknowledges another global political “earthquake” today:

    Fear of worldwide nuclear annihilation in 1945 united capitalists and communists in a global attempt to use science as a worldwide tool of deceit to control humanity 70 years ago:

    1. Nations and national academies of sciences were united on 24 OCT 1945

    2. The internal composition of the Sun was changed from
    _ a.) Mostly iron (Fe) in 1945 to
    _ b.) Mostly hydrogen (H) in 1946

    3. George Orwell moved from London to the Scottish Isle of Jura to start writing Nineteen Eighty-Four in 1946

    4. The definition of nuclear stability was falsely changed from
    _ c.) Lowest value of Aston’s nuclear packing fraction to
    _ d.) Highest value of Weizsacker’s average nuclear binding energy per nucleon

    Globalists falsehoods isolated humanity from the Creator, Destoyer & Sustainer of every atom, life and planet in the solar system for the past seven decades.

  2. Larry Ledwick says:

    I pretty much have been noticing the same thing over the last 24 hours. Lots of people running in circles at first followed by self serving predictions of doom to set the conditions for how to fleece Britain as they walk out the door.

    The old Roman phrase Cui Bono sorts out lots of situations quickly. Once you figure out who is getting screwed and who is doing the screwing it is much easier to figure out the long game. It took a while for them to sort out the talking points but the “mean girls” are now trying to determine what the price of disobedience is.

    Your analysis of solutions leaves out one item. You are looking for efficiency and results, obviously the big government leaches can’t have any of that. Why with a simple statement of Tit for Tat tariff you throw out all those expensive catered lunches while you discuss the minutia of a complex 47 page statement of the intent of the future negotiations and their goals, which of course will be parsed into 5 different study groups all of which also have to have expensive catered lunches for their meetings.

    Efficient solutions to problems is to bureaucrats, like sunrise is to a vampire, highly over rated.
    The other simple solution would be that as of x date certain, all trade agreements will revert to the standing agreements in place immediately prior to when the UK joined the EU, unless otherwise negotiated.

    Just turn back the clock to preexisting arrangements as a starting point for new trade negotiations.

  3. Brent Buckner says:

    I think the WTO covers a lot of the trade situation.
    (Hey, Germany’s biggest trade relationship is with the US: )

  4. p.g.sharrow says:

    This is a disaster of greatest proportions! This portends the END of the WORLD!
    If you are a Communist, this is the Wall coming Down! A leak in their dike of control over humanity.
    For those that don’t remember the John Birch Society, There are Communists everywhere! ensconced in our government, schools and media. A FACT. Communism is a religion as nefarious as Islam. The EU, just like the UN, was created and is operated by dedicated Communists. They greatly fear loss of control. They know that if the people realize how a few communists are stealing their liberties and their wealth, the people will rise up and destroy them. Communists promise wonderful results if given power but can not deliver and do not give up their positions willingly. “Win 1 vote, 1 time” and “eradicate all opposition” is their mantra.
    Small wonder that they are decrying the foolishness of the people that want to turn them out…pg

  5. andysaurus says:

    I am interested to know if anybody else has noticed the bitterness that has come from the remain campaigners. They clearly hate the democratic process. They have even started a campaign to ‘do over’ because they can’t accept the result, although having lost by a million votes. They are mainly blaming the elderly, but also the proles. One software developer of my acquaintance suggested that people should have an IQ test before they are allowed to vote. Of course remainers are all left-wing university graduates (Saul Alinsky strikes). Eugenics next?
    Thank goodness there are more sensible people in the World. The Brexit vote gives me hope. Now all we need is Trump in the White House and we will be back to Reagan and Thatcher days. I do worry that he doesn’t understand free trade is good for everybody, but he has the good sense to choose Laffer to advise, so there is hope there.
    Now wish me luck in the Australian elections next week. unfortunately we have a choice between the centrist Malcolm Turnbull who is wet as washing, and the union backed Bill Shorton. They are both pretty awful but with Tony Abbot gone Turnbull is the best of two bad choices. Hopefully the party will realise how bad he is and kick him out.
    I assume any sensible country could not vote for Hillary, so you will be OK in the States. I certainly hope so.

  6. omanuel says:

    Globalists said 97% of the scientists we pay to lie all agreed:

    1, GMO food is good for you
    2. Vaccinations are good for you
    3. Our economic and governance models for the globe & all Standard Consensus Models are all correct

    We will not lower ourselves to explain why they conflict with the Declaratipn of Independence and the national constitutions of nations nor precise rest mass measurements of the 3,000 types of atoms that compromise all matter.

  7. Looks like a Tea in a stormcup, or similar. I can see that Jean-Claude Juncker (who has some questionmarks over graft and corruption while leading Luxembourg) is really annoyed that the cash-cow of the UK will no longer be yielding milk and thus the Project of takeover by stealth is looking a little tottery, and is thus threatening all sorts of expenses for leaving the Club. Make it difficult “pour encourager les autres”. Tough titty….

    My daughter and stepdaughters are upset since they think that Europe will be closed to them and their friends. Actually they’ll be OK since they do have the option of German passports if they re-apply for them, but for their friends it’ll make very little difference either. If you want to go find a job in another country, and the company wants you, it happens anyway. It will be difficult if you want to start a company in another country in Europe, but then the natives also have a big problem because the regulations are pretty damned complex and unless you have a lot of money it is hard work.

    The tit-for-tat trade deals look like a good solution. In any case, the UK will be using WTO tariffs by default if no deals are done, and that’s averaging out at 3%. The Germans don’t want heavy trade tariffs (it’ll put too many Germans out of work) and I can’t see the French farmers wanting around 1/3 of their wine and cheese sales being cut off.

    Meantime, neither the EU or UK have a trade deal with the USA. The UK should be able to do a fast deal if it’s needed, since again a tit-for-tat deal would concentrate the mind wonderfully and there’s the WTO deal to fall back on. Also, not needing 28 countries to agree might speed up the process. I don’t see the problem.

    As trade with the EU took over from the Rest Of World and Commonwealth, Liverpool docks lost custom and Southampton gained. That impoverished the whole North-West of the country and enriched the South-East (which was already doing pretty well). I’d now expect that inequality to become less and Liverpool to start building up again. It seems that being in the EU did after all have some downsides as regards equality, and sending food-parcels and having “urban regeneration projects” really doesn’t compensate for the fact that real wealth was no longer being generated, having been replaced by the generation of money in the South-East. It’s easier to count money than wealth, and it’s also a lot easier to make it multiply without doing any real work.

    Funny thing is, I don’t see the much-vaunted “problem” with immigration being solved by Brexit. The UK will probably become even more attractive in a few years, after all, and I don’t see the UK refusing qualified people that it needs. There may well be higher wages as the supply of cheap workers dries up – yes the free movement has been abused and it’s pretty obvious that businesses will try to get away with paying less if they can. That’s why I ended up with an early retirement, after all – although Xerox in Mitcheldean was the most-productive in the Xerox world and also had the best quality figures, a new factory in Hungary could employ people at around 20% of the wages and also got some tax-deals (I think) through building a new factory in the impoverished Eastern Europe. My job thus got exported and there weren’t any others that would have paid reasonably within a couple of hours’ commute, and the local jobs were shelf-stacking.

    The idea of the EU was to make all the living-standards equal across the union. Inevitably that means that the people who generate wealth will not see the profits from their work, and that those who don’t generate wealth will live above their means. That’s why Greece had such a problem – here, take this loan and buy the stuff you can’t afford. Can’t pay it back? We’ll sell off your family silver instead….

    Once it’s all settled down, I see the UK going back to generating wealth and, maybe more importantly, being able to keep it and re-invest it to make more.

  8. John F. Hultquist says:

    In the last 2 presidential elections the US has shown it is not a sensible country.
    Hope is not a plan.

  9. TinyCO2 says:

    Well sadly the Scottish exit is a possibility. The Scots did give the poisoned dwarf a mandate for trouble at the last election. Whether the EU would really want them is another matter. They’re not exactly dripping with money anymore. In theory she’s got no power to demand a referendum, the last one had to be agreed by the London government but I’m not sure that it will stop her.

    There are lots of things the UK government should be doing but unfortunately our loser PM, quit when he didn’t get his way. Part of me doesn’t blame him but he set up every pit he fell into. He’s been a terrible Conservative leader. Given the mess Gordon Brown had left and that he was unelectable, the Conservative should have breezed into number 10. Instead, Cameron was such an insipid leader with ‘vote Blue, go Green’ and ‘hug a hoodie’ memes that he failed to get a majority and had to share leadership with the LibDems. A relationship Cameron fit into very well. A decent recovery out of recession and a promise to pay off our debt as a priority saw the Conservatives get more support for the next election but what really swung it was fear of a weak Labour dancing to the small Scottish One’s tunes. Nicola Sturgeon being a better (if totally mad) politician than nearly all of them put together. I’ll be honest I didn’t even notice that Cameron had offered a referendum on the EU as part of his bid to get in again. It wasn’t necessary but he and his team were so out of touch with their members they didn’t know it and getting in came as a surprise to them. He then went on to spend money like it was going out of fashion on everything his party didn’t want him to and not reduce our debt like he was asked to.

    At the same time Cameron did his show of getting great concessions from the EU. Because even the EU knew that he was bluffing, he got even less that the little he was asking for. He then foolishly decided to front his IN campaign, fogetting that he hadn’t got any good reasons for us to stay other than it was the easy option for him and his mates. He didn’t have a plan b in case he lost. He and Osbourne then kicked off project fear that actually had mixed results. It did scare a lot of youngsters into voting in but it also annoyed a lot of others who were already teetering on the edge of rebellion. It got people on both sides out to vote. It panicked the markets before the event which meant that it delivered a relatively soft landing. The final shock would have been even less if the banks hadn’t ordered their own (wrong) exit polls. Nobody factored that the out votors had just clammed up after Jo Cox, but not actually changed their minds. Where in the Scottish referendum, project fear had turned bold enthusiasm into last minute safe voting, the early deployment in the UK turned early doubt into stubborn determination.

    And as a final act of petullence Cameron has quit at the most inconvenient moment. He fits Obama’s first impression of him as a ‘lightweight’. He could never have led the negotiations but he could have minded the shop while someone else got on with it.

  10. Larry Ledwick says:

    Some numbers I harvested from a twitter post:

    From twitter
    David Auerbach ‏@AuerbachKeller 12 hours ago

    Groups that voted disproportionately for #Brexit,
    in descending order of skew. Via Lord Ashcroft’s polls.

    UKIP voters (96%)
    People who consider themselves “English not British” (80%)
    The working class (65%)
    People without college degrees (65%)
    Physically disabled (62%)
    The retired (60%)
    Tory voters (58%)
    People over age 45 (58%)
    Christians (58%)
    The unemployed (57%)
    Parents with teenage kids (56%)
    The Welsh (56%)

    40% of feminists voted for Brexit
    74% of anti-feminists voted for Brexit

    Whites did NOT vote disproportionately for Brexit

    Click to access How-the-UK-voted-Full-tables-1.pdf

  11. Larry Ledwick says:

    And now the fun begins:

    So they admit that ill advised immigration policies are a problem and suggest to punish the folks who recognize that fact by foisting off on them the problem that they just voted to escape from.

    If you want to send them some where, you might want to start by shipping them to Angela Merkel’s home town.

  12. TinyCO2 says:

    Larry Ledwick, the suggestion going round is that people who voted for Brexit were without a degree and therefore less intelligent. It is a distorted view because of how education has changed over the years. A high percentage of young people now go on to further education where even super smart people could have left school at 14 when my parents were kids. Even when I was young, people normally left school at 16. It didn’t mean that they weren’t as smart or smarter than any youngster who’s got a degree today, especially those who studied one of the softer subjects. Kids from the wrong background were even discouraged from studying beyond the basics, whereas now teachers push forward anyone with the slightest aptitude, especially those from disadvantaged backgrounds.

  13. Larry Ledwick says:

    Larry Ledwick, the suggestion going round is that people who voted for Brexit were without a degree and therefore less intelligent. It is a distorted view because of how education has changed over the years.

    Yep, folks think a college degree implies intelligence. It does not! It implies money, and ability to take tests and in some cases a willingness and ability to suck up to teachers, it might have a slight correlation with intelligence but only at the most superficial level (ie IQ > 85). Some of the dumbest people I have ever met had higher degrees (masters and Phd). Lots of raw knowledge, but they were incapable of thinking outside the box or coming to original conclusions, or evaluating information that did not fit the expected pattern and modify their view, but they were very good at regurgitating a party line of dogma.

    Like the degree’d mechanical engineer who insists a rock conveyor system is plenty strong enough to handle the load (his calculator told him so) and would not listen to the plant mechanic with 30 years experience that told him that in weeks it would start cracking due to excess vibration and constant flexing. The old mechanic 9 times out of 10 was right.

    I would posit that those who were not college graduates and voted for Brexit, had not been brainwashed by the wankers and twits in higher education and did not much care about virtue signaling and political correctness. As most worker bees they were concerned about practical application of common sense and their own experience, not some highly regarded intellectual judgement which went directly counter to their every day experience.

    I will take the judgement of the average man who works a real physical job every day over your average college educated graduate who has not yet learned that actions have consequences and often not the consequences that are expected.

  14. TinyCO2 says:

    This will tickle you – a manager of a power station was called in to explain a significant fraud at his site, that implicated him as he signed the contract. An accounts auditor has spotted that a particular item was less than a hundred pounds when bought as single units but hundreds of thousands when bought as a multiple of hundred units. It was a real ahah! moment. The manager sighed and said that if they’d just asked what the item was rather than accusing people, he’d have told them that it was coal plant conveyor belt. When replacing the entire converyor it was one, very expensive price but the company also sold 1 m lengths to existing customers for patching and jointing breaks. There were red faces all round.

  15. Another Ian says:


    Cop this on the push for another Brexit poll!

    “Only 350k of the 2 million sigs are British”

  16. Larry Ledwick says:

    An item that enumerates all the doom and gloom.

    It does raise a couple interesting issues. One is that computerized trading on monday will be strongly biased to sell off due to the liquidation of about $800 in stock market value, possibly starting a self fulfilling sell off as that programmed selling pushes prices down. (circuit breakers should help minimize that — he said hopefully)

    The second item I noticed was that a couple of the British based bank stocks got absolutely pummeled.
    Barclays (BCS) shares plunged 20.48%
    Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) plummeted 27.5%
    It will be interesting to see how that recovers after a weekend to consider the situation.

    In other news items I also noticed comments that this might put a spanner in the cogs of getting the TPP ratified.

    National Review has a piece that looks at the vote and how it was totally unexpected by some and mischaracterized by the Elite. They simply ignored the prospect that the “little people” might be offended that they had lost the ability to control their own destiny as the democratic process was basically denied them in the EU bureaucracy.

    Pointed out in other articles was how the generational split was mostly driven by the difference in the world view between the young cosmopolitan generation who wanted the ability to easily work and live in any one of the 28 countries of the EU and as such see Brexit as stealing their future and denying them opportunities, compared to the older generation who wanted local control returned to the people on important topics like immigration, mindless regulations that don’t work in all locations etc.

    The next couple weeks will be interesting for sure, time to pops some pop corn and see what happens.

  17. p.g.sharrow says:

    A part of the generational divide is due to the Blitzkrieg of FUD to remain in. The young have not gained the skepticism of Authority that those older have acquired. If those that are clamoring for a re-due get their way, they may be surprised with a greater loss as the remains realize they have been conned and change their position. It appears that the EU Bureaucrats will double down on their demands of the British before they can leave or stay. Regardless, the EU with Britain is finished. Britain is not a part of Europe. Britain is the Grand Dame of the Anglo-American Empire. Germany and France can continue to fight over control of Europe as they have been doing for 1600 years, with the Russians acting as the dog in the manger. Soon the Sons of Muhammad will be pushed back into their box. They have worn out their welcome among civilized people…pg

  18. p.g.sharrow says:

    Throughout 6,000years of history of human governmental organization, bureaucracies always grow until they strangle and destroy the civilization that they manage. ALWAYS!
    The American Constitution was created to limit the reach and power of the Federal Government Bureaucrats but the federal courts, Supreme Court have allowed bit by bit to be circumvented. The servant to the people and states that created it has taken on the mantle of sovereign over all. The founding fathers made one fundamental mistake, they assumed that their servants were honorable people that would obey the highest law of the land. There is no real controlling authority with enforcement powers, no real penalties for breaking the most important law of the nation…pg

  19. E.M.Smith says:


    The second amendment is not about murdering Bambi.
    It isn’t about burglars.

  20. p.g.sharrow says:

    @EMSmith; The threat of force is much more valuable the the actual thing ;-) Once committed hard to control. As long as the American population is armed and dangerous the GEBs will fear them. This makes for their LOUD gnashing of their gums to disarm the populace. For their own good! really!…pg

  21. beththeserf says:

    Information rich article Chiefio, thx.
    Re-posted it at Climate Etc and Jo Nova.

  22. catweazle666 says:

    With regard to the ‘yoof’ claiming that evil fat old people had robbed them of their birthright and spamming petitions demanding a new referendum, this is instructive:

    Turnout % of each age group in the #EURefResults:
    18-24: 36%
    25-34: 58%
    35-44: 72%
    45-54: 75%
    55-64: 81%
    65+: 83%

    Perhaps next time they’ll get off their arses and vote!

  23. richard ilfeld says:

    “trade Deals” are just another turd in the pile of excrement that is government involvement in business! The best trades occur between willing partners who can overcome existing barriers and both be satisfied. Government deals enable more marginal, sometimes fully dysfunctional trading., Government subsidies industries that fail, re-educates citizens for whom schooling has failed, makes disaster payments to those who have neglected insurance, etc. What entrepreneur other than Elon Musk, thinks the first place one goes to start a business is the government.the virtue of government is that one doesn’t have to satisfy a real customer, nor produce a successful product, to prosper. Not all see the virtue in that.

    The true essence of the EU has been to protect weak companies by giving them a captive market, and ensure minimal middle class standards to failing economies. It is falling behind the rest of the world….but the majority of members are falling more slowly that they would on their own, given the dynamics of size and German productivity.

    Watch an hopeless enterprise lose a fifth of its income, and not fire a single bureaucrat. There will be no recession in Brussels, no matter how much misery they can spread elsewhere nor how punitively they deal with the UK.

    I hope the EU are as nasty as typical organized crime bosses are when a deal goes south. This might be just the kick in the arse a resurgent UK needs to up it game and recapture a bit of its faded glory.

  24. E.M.Smith says:


    You are most welcome!


    Well, maybe it’s best if those who remember living their history take steps to fix it and those who are fresh from Indoctrination Camp U stay home a bit ;-)


    Which is why, to any gun banning movement, I point out the long history of folks overthrowing Central Authority despite weapons bans and despite the need to improvise weapons. TPTB need to understand that weapons bans don’t work and don’t protect them and they must fully accept being afraid of the mob. Always. It is when they lose that fear they become most stupid and then we have civilization collapse and revolution. I’d rather not go there, so advocate for our 2nd amendment right to go armed in this world. Precisely because it prevents the need for revolution and chaos and “The French Haircut” of the Republic…


    I believe that the “spine” in British character came from that need to engage with the rest of the world as free traders on the sea. The oceans do not care what you think, nor reward your rules.

    Yes, you are right, government “trade deals” are, IMHO, code words for “taking graft from the home industry and granting favors to family and friends”. Were I in charge, the only “trade deal” would be rule number 3…

  25. Frank Mosher says:

    excellent analysis. I enjoy the first class insight by all, and the free exchange of ideas. fm

  26. Aron says:

    Intelligent people who don’t like being threatened or bought off by governmment sticks and carrots understand globalism has failed, and they have spoken. Below, an opinion piece expounding on this idea that I could not have written better myself.

    Great discussion all BTW. Cheers.

  27. Clive Hoskin says:

    Well done to the British and Nigel Farage,who spent an awful long time to get to here.Also Boris Johnson and the rest of the Brexiters.Long may you live and prosper.

  28. Interesting statistics: the EU will lose 13% of the population and 17% of the GDP when GB goes. Germany’s share of the costs goes up from 20% to 25%. GB’s net contribution of £18.7G will make a large hole that Germany will have to fill, but there is unlikely to be any fewer bureaucrats employed. Figures from the BBC, so maybe not totally reliable….

    Meantime, on the Socialist idea of democracy, Scotland is intending to try to block the Brexit by not agreeing to the kick-off of Article 50 – looks like that won’t be successful. Just keep having referenda until the vote goes the way they want…. AFAIK Scotland would be a net receiver of EU funds, so it makes sense for Scotland, but even there it was mainly the cities that voted to remain and the countryside voted to leave. Wales, which is at the moment a net receiver of funds, mostly voted to leave. Then again, there aren’t so many cities there, and the Welsh are strong on freedom.

    Although the referendum is advisory only, and isn’t binding on the UK government, the bureaucrats in Brussels are proceeding as if it’s already a done deal and all that needs discussion is the penalties that they want to impose on the UK. At the moment it looks like the Brexit campaigners are surprised to have won, and haven’t prepared any solid plans for what they would do if they did win. Maybe not so surprising, since they have been blocked from getting any solid data by the government (the Civil Service were ordered to not give out any government data to the Brexit side). The solid plans will thus have to wait until there is a new Prime Minister and associated Cabinet who will have access to the data and can thus make a plan as to what to do. There will of necessity be a delay while a new leader is chosen and the information is digested, and then Article 50 can be invoked and the process of extrication started.

    I’d expect the lack of good data is a reason why Trump’s plans for the States don’t appear to be well-formed – he’s got to get to the presidency before he’ll know enough about the true state of affairs to really make good plans. This is a distinct failing in the way democracy currently works, in that the people have to vote on a wish-list rather than plans that have solid data backing them. We depend on our judgement of the candidate’s capacity to deliver on the wish-list.

    There’s currently a feeling on the news that the UK will lose more from Brexit than the EU will. At least this will be so if Jean-Claude Juncker can arrange it to be so…. I figure there will be a few years where the UK is worse off, but that within a decade it will be a lot better off than it would have been. The fly in the ointment though is Boris Johnson, who has been angling for the job of PM for a while. Somehow, people don’t seem to have realised that he only says what he thinks will get votes and make him richer, and that he’s not really into working hard for anything. If he is the PM (or if any of the major Leave campaigners get the job), then the recession could well deepen to a depression and the UK will suffer for longer. Hopefully the Conservative MPs will choose someone who will do the job competently, and to me it looks like Theresa May is probably the only intelligent choice.

    To some extent I can see why the EU was intended as a dictatorship (preferably benevolent) and to stop the slick talkers winning the popular vote. If they hadn’t also chosen the route of overweening central control and uniformity (à la USSR) then I might even support it, but there will always be the risk of an outright dictatorship and erosion of personal responsibility. Democracy may have its problems, but the fixed term does give a chance of a get-out.

  29. catweazle666 says:

    “There’s currently a feeling on the news that the UK will lose more from Brexit than the EU will.”


    The genie is out of the bottle, the UK may be the first to take to the lifeboats, but it will certainly not be the last – not by any stretch of imagination.

    Jean Monnet’s “Great Experiment” – rapidly morphing into the Fourth Reich – is dead in the water.

  30. catweazle666 says:

    Looks we got out of the EU in a nick of time!

    European SUPERSTATE to be unveiled: EU nations ‘to be morphed into one’ post-Brexit

    EUROPEAN political chiefs are to take advantage of Brexit by unveiling their long-held plan to morph the continent’s countries into one GIANT SUPERSTATE, it has emerged today.

    The foreign ministers of France and Germany are due to reveal a blueprint to effectively do away with individual member states in what is being described as an “ultimatum”.

    The foreign ministers of France and Germany are due to reveal a blueprint to effectively do away with individual member states in what is being described as an “ultimatum”.

    Under the radical proposals EU countries will lose the right to have their own army, criminal law, taxation system or central bank, with all those powers being transferred to Brussels.

    Controversially member states would also lose what few controls they have left over their own borders, including the procedure for admitting and relocating refugees.

    Stunning timing…

  31. Larry Ledwick says:

    One other little secondary consequence:

    They may move to remove English as an official language of the EU since Britain is the only country specifying it as their official language.

  32. E.M.Smith says:

    Doesn’t Ireland use English as an official language?

    Oh, and if they do that ‘reveal’ it will assure that Britain loses any “buyers remorse” and a couple of other nations will rapidly head for the exits…

  33. Larry Ledwick says:

    That is not the language they listed with the EU they specified Gaelic as their official language.

  34. catweazle666 says:

    “Doesn’t Ireland use English as an official language?”

    Yes, as does Malta.

    French is only used by France, and the way things are going with Marine Le Pen, it is likely that the French will be having a Frexit referendum before too long.

    I wonder what the French politicos will say if France votes ‘OUT’ and the EU decides to cease to use French.

  35. p.g.sharrow says:

    @catweazle666; good catch. Now the intensity and breath of the Remain campaign makes more sense. The Remain camp was supposed to win, quickly followed by the legal consolidation drive. They were committed before the vote to spring this “Ultimatum” in the euphoria of their win. Now it is desperation to prevent a run for the door. For 2000 years the dream of a “Continental” Empire has been chased by one group or another. Now it is the Brussels Technocrats and their “4th Reich”.
    Larry Ledwick points to the possible demotion of English as an Official Language in the EU. Silly Rabbits, don’t they know that Western English is the language of the civilized world. The German/French “Ultimatum” may well be the straw that broke the camels back…pg

  36. Larry Ledwick says:

    The internet has made English the lingua franca for almost all the major countries. There are more english speakers in China than in the United States, and almost all Europeans can at least understand simple english and many are quite fluent. Like French was the language of diplomats in the 1800’s it has become a common denominator language any where you find significant tourism and industrial development.

  37. E.M.Smith says:

    Ooooh… sneaky… Yes, it does explain the ferocity of Remain.

    Per English:

    Despite what folks say about it being irregular, it isn’t any more than others. Just dumping the memory map of several thousand gender endings and a giant inflection table dramatically shrinks the table sizes. It started as a trade pigeon simplfied Germanic-Celtic blend, so matched to the purpose of fast to learn just enough.

    Besides, unlike French, nobody cares how you speak it and any accent is fine :-)

  38. Pingback: German Cat Herding in BrExit | Musings from the Chiefio

  39. clipe says:

    “The problem with defending the purity of the English language is that English is about as pure as a cribhouse whore. We don’t just borrow words; on occasion, English has pursued other languages down alleyways to beat them unconscious and riffle their pockets for new vocabulary.”

  40. E.M.Smith says:


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