First up is a fairly long talk by Dr. Valentina Zharkova. A lady who has had a pretty fair skill at observing things and predicting results. She has a “back casting” method that pretty much matches historical solar activity, and is now predicting that we will enter a Super Grand Solar Minimum. Yes, it’s a bit of cyclemania. Cycles in cycles and all that. However that IS how the Sun seems to work.
Some folks are tarting this up as a 350 year long “Ice Age”. In my opinion they are missing that there are smaller cycles inside that envelope that tend to both cold and warm.
So yes, for about 150 to 200 years we have the outer envelope of solar activity narrowing and tending toward colder from our present warmer environment. Inside of that envelope, we shill have shorter cycles of warm / cold / warm / cold. Then we spend another 150 to 200 years in the re-warming process coming out of the cold spell.
There’s also a lot of folks conflating this kind of process with the Younger Dryas and bringing up Mastodons with food in the stomachs, undigested, and asserting we could be in an Ice Age Glacial in just a few seasons. IMHO they are wrong. The Younger Dryas has a fair amount of evidence that it was caused by a meteor impact into the ice pack. Being hit by a mile high ice slush tsunami explains the Mastodons (and a lot of other extinctions then). For normal cycles, some pertinent things need to be kept in mind.
Glacial Ice is known to accumulate over about 100,000 years in an Ice Age Glacial. It may get cold fast, but the snow & ice is a mass transport problem and it takes much longer to stack up. You will not be buried under 1/2 mile of ice in New York City in your lifetime even if the Ice Age Glacial began a decade ago. The ice sheet advances at about 800 feet further south a year. You can out walk it in one good walk on a single Saturday of each year.
Cold Onset can be fast, but even then it tends to leave. Those faster cycles mean that a severe cold episode is followed by a warmer episode. Just a little less warm than last time. Even if there were another “Year Without A Summer”, there will be another summer someday. What changes is how far up the mountain the ice and snow melts. Eventually a glacier forms, and then over decades it starts to grow.
We have massive excess production of crops. We feed most of it to animals. We in the industrial rich west will not starve even if there is significant change of where each temperature / growing band rests on the globe. Farmers are pretty smart folks and they will just shift to faster growing more cold tolerant crops. Yes, eventually it will be a big problem as Canada will be under a mile of ice… but that’s in 100,000 years. Initially it will just mean growing more barley & buckwheat and moving the limit of farming a few miles south of present (up in Alaska… and northern Canada). Yes, there will be disruption as folks currently growing Corn in Indiana revert to the rye and barley they used to grow when I was a kid (before corn growing moved more north – yes, we’ve done this dance before…).
Worst case: We take the aproximately 1/3 of our corn crop we feed to cars and the other 2/3 that is almost entirely fed to cows, pigs & chickens and we instead feed it to ourselves. In reality it will never get that bad. It takes 10 lbs of grain to make a one pound beef steak. There’s no way you can eat 10 lbs of corn even in a week… Like I said, we have a huge excess capacity to grow food.
Already on the self are known nuclear power technologies to heat every house and make all the electricity we need at very affordable prices. The only reason we are not using them is Stupid Political Agendas. If things get bad enough, we will use them. These can also power desalinizing plants for water, electric lights for greenhouses, and heat for them too. I doubt we will ever need that level of effort, but it is available if we need it. IF things ever get that bad, political angst will be set aside.
So keep that kind of stuff in mind. About 1 1/2 hours, and with a hard to follow high pitched accented voice (at least, hard for my semi-deaf ears…) but you can skip forward in some bits of it.
For consideration, we have a NASA report that the thermosphere is showing a great deal of cooling. It does that when the sun goes quiet:
https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/09/27/the-chill-of-solar-minimum/
The Chill of Solar Minimum
September 27, 2018 / Dr.Tony PhillipsSept. 27, 2018: The sun is entering one of the deepest Solar Minima of the Space Age. Sunspots have been absent for most of 2018, and the sun’s ultraviolet output has sharply dropped. New research shows that Earth’s upper atmosphere is responding.
“We see a cooling trend,” says Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center. “High above Earth’s surface, near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, it could soon set a Space Age record for cold.”
That’s how it happens. The sun goes quiet. The upper atmosphere loses heat rapidly. The atmospheric height shortens and the mountain tops start to ice over.
These results come from the SABER instrument onboard NASA’s TIMED satellite. SABER monitors infrared emissions from carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitric oxide (NO), two substances that play a key role in the energy balance of air 100 to 300 kilometers above our planet’s surface. By measuring the infrared glow of these molecules, SABER can assess the thermal state of gas at the very top of the atmosphere–a layer researchers call “the thermosphere.”
“The thermosphere always cools off during Solar Minimum. It’s one of the most important ways the solar cycle affects our planet,” explains Mlynczak, who is the associate principal investigator for SABER.
[…]
Notice that CO2 is a radiative gas that dumps heat to space, it isn’t keeping heat in. I’m skipping a bit here, so hit the link for the whole article.
To help keep track of what’s happening in the thermosphere, Mlynczak and colleagues recently introduced the “Thermosphere Climate Index” (TCI)–a number expressed in Watts that tells how much heat NO molecules are dumping into space. During Solar Maximum, TCI is high (“Hot”); during Solar Minimum, it is low (“Cold”).
“Right now, it is very low indeed,” says Mlynczak. “SABER is currently measuring 33 billion Watts of infrared power from NO. That’s 10 times smaller than we see during more active phases of the solar cycle.”
So is this the start of something big? Or just that we’re in a modest cooling? Time will tell, but I’m expecting something like the Little Ice Age. Livable, but some challenge if you live up north. FWIW, I first claimed it would hit about 2016 to 2018 back in about 2010. So far we are still on track for that.
As something of a postscript, this 1 hour 20 minute video takes a more alarmist stance. It’s a bit “end timesy” religious at times, but it does cite the above folks and their work. Easier to follow, but they make some common errors (like that whole Mastodons chewing grass means an ice age can start in hours…). But it is a lot easier to follow and covers an interesting range of other bits (including the potential that the US Federal Government is prepping for cold in some way – see the 42 minute mark for that). At about the 50 minute mark there’s an interesting Conspiracy Theory about Globalists driving “migrants” into places that are going to freeze – clearing warm spots for themselves, later.
If nothing else, it’s more entertaining ;-)
Musings from the Chiefio 
IceAgeNow is a brilliant resource for what the MSM do not mention at all, although local News Papers do mention them, hence it making the news for people to pick up & notify IAN.
Although some UK newspapers have written about the NASA report.
The USA is big enough to fend for themselves but other countries aren’t so lucky. Yes, relocation of grain growing will work for you. When the climate cools grain production will decrease in the EU (subsidies or not), Russia, the Ukraine, and Canada of course. And Iceland only restarted growing grain (oats and barley) in 1924 after a 400 year hiatus. That means the price of food will go up.
Much of the Middle East depends on imported grain to feed their people with a rapid growth rate as an added disadvantage. The result will be considerable unrest.
China has been quietly looking to Africa, Sth. America and Australia as future sources of food. They have had no confidence in the nonsense from the IPCC from the start, as they remember their history and how tough things got during the cold spells, not least to the threat for the ruling classes from a starving population.
On top of that is the chance of increasing volcanic action which would make the climate situation worse. Interesting times coming.
If the next solar cycle is weaker than the one currently nearing its end, we could see some climate change of the cooling kind. Such a pattern has happened before.
E.M. wrote: “[…] but I’m expecting something like the Little Ice Age.”
I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the next really cold phase is colder than the Little Ice Age.
I’ve always been struck by the roller coaster aspect of the decent graphs of temperatures that start a little before the Holocene Optimum. Starting with that optimum, each warm peak is a little lower than the previous one and each cold phase is a little colder than the previous one. We’ve been stair-stepping down towards the next set of conditions that will start a glacial cycle.
So I expect the next cold phase to be colder than the last and I can only guess how many warm/cold steps are left before the next glaciation starts.* It would be interesting, to say the least, to see the start of the next glaciation.
* Does anyone really know or is it even knowable what the Global Average Temperature has to hit to start the next stadial?
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Idle thought: About all those millions of climate refugees we were supposed to see that Al Gore predicted would need to escape hell on earth in oh… 2012, was it? Why aren’t all those invaders from Honduras claiming Climate Refugee status? The fact that they are not is a sign that the Global Frying scare has faded off the radar of most people, alarmists included.
It appears that nobody is buying runaway CO2 induced CAGW any more and even just the fear of it is now a hard sale to make.
Oh… and why am I trying to invade hell-on-earth Florida? By now, I was supposed to be planning my Winter stays in the balmy Arctic, yes? 😜
Although you won’t see 1/2 mile thick ice pushing through Manhatten in your life time, you might see extended periods of snow fields in some locations in the northern US. Things like total freeze over of the great lakes and late ice out in the northern navigable channels of sea commerce in the great lakes and Saint Lawrence Seaway.
In the 1970’s there was talk about a snow blitz, one of the necessary precursors for glacial development is heavy accumulation of snow fields which eventually morph into glaciers. In that transition phase you will see major blizzards and Buffalo New York class snow dumps of 45+ inches that stay on the ground almost all year long. Cities like Chicago, Toronto , Buffalo, Detroit etc will gradually become uninhabitable as they will have almost year round snow cover in the colder parts of the annual cycles. In time that will form the snow build up which will spawn the glaciers.
How long does that take?
The snow blitz theory says that one or two extreme winters which bury that region in year round snow build up would trigger an albedo feed back which would spawn earlier harsh winters and beginning of the glacial advance once the snow fields reach several tens of feet deep.
So although you could out walk the leading edge of the flowing ice sheet, the seasonal snow blitzes will bury miles and miles of countryside under very deep snow for months at a time. That can happen very rapidly like we saw in the Atlas blizzard in the Dakotas.
Snow totals from the Atlas blizzard
https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-storm-atlas-your-reports-20131003/
Two of these storms in close sequence would essentially shut down the northern states for months, as they deal with the accumulated total of 5 ft or so of snow. If the series of storms happened like the atlas blizzard in the early fall, you would have the deep cold of winter to prevent melt of the snow.
This would be a flip the switch event if events conspired to generate two or more of these storms in the northern continental interior within a few weeks of each other.
Larry is quite right, The transition from northern grain fields to permanent snow fields could be quite fast! Specially in the north east from the Great Lakes north. Once covered the area will become a cold low that will suck moisture from the Gulf to fall in great depths of snow over the Lakes to begin the next glacial age. The Lakes area are the birth place of the Continental Ice Sheet, not the north pole or Hudson Bay. The creation then moves north as the Oceans are reduced, the supposed “Advance” to the south is just the margins movement and melt…pg
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Re: “At about the 50 minute mark there’s an interesting Conspiracy Theory about Globalists driving “migrants” into places that are going to freeze – clearing warm spots for themselves, later.”
Yes. That’s what I’ve been saying. It’s interesting to see someone with way more credentials than I have say something like that as well.
I also have been saying (when asked) that IMHO the “war” against so-called “fossil fuels” is an effort to drive down the price of stock for those companies. People like Soros are known to snap up bargains like that–especially if the real future is colder, and fossil fuels are the only dependable way to stay warm and productive in a cooling climate. (Forget about powering your central heating with wind or solar in a little ice age.) Then people like Soros can either sit on those resources, or jack up the price for them so that no one but the elite can afford them. If you want to reduce the world population, that would probably work well.
I wonder how many more well-fed young men of military age are still in South America? I wish someone would do some research on that and report back. It would seem that if few enough of them were left back home, that would lead the GEBs to move on to the next part of the plan…which I assume would be to evict the remaining “peasants” from their arable lands (or kill them off) and do whatever they wanted with those lands.
IIRC, folks associated with the World Bank actually killed off the people living on the lands they wanted to, say, plant palm trees on, because palm oil is one of the hot investments. I think it was in north Africa. I may be wrong about the palm trees, but I do think it was in north Africa.
I also wonder what stories the migrants/invaders have been told to get them to leave their homelands, especially if those areas will still be arable during a Little Ice Age? Is it just the promise of a one-year job and a $5000 stipend? Do they also lose the right to return to their home if things don’t work out up north? Maybe it’s in the fine print. It just sounds like a deal where they’ve sold their soul to the devil. That doesn’t usually work out well for the little guy.
I saw an article today that said that the travelers’ $10,000 charge (each) to be taken to the US was many thousands of dollars lower if they brought a child with them. Like, a couple of adults could pay less than $5,000 (for the pair of them) if they brought a child with them, and they are allowed to take 3 years to pay that off… If they don’t pay it off, then the mother of one of the adults (back home) loses her home.
As I said, a deal with the devil.
I have wondered why folks from the Mediterranean climate of the middle east and northern Africa would even consider living in places like Norway – just doesn’t make sense in the context of the way most people I know make moving decisions.
It would be (if true) an effective way to cull out a lot of people who live in those areas to move them north then let the changing climate starve them all to death a few years down the road. I don’t think many of them are effective farmers in a northern European climate.
Not willing to fully buy into the idea that it “the plan” but might reasonably be an unintended consequence of the mass immigration since by its very nature it is breaking the productivity of the regions they are moving to.
While I find the message from Dr. Valentina Zharkova very interesting, listening to her is painful as she excites my tinnitus.
Larry I would say you’re on the mark with your appraisal of how the cooling may progress.
Funny how the UN wants every nation locked into their CO2 mitigation plans by or before 2020. IMO that is when the chickens come home to roost, as it will be painfully obvious that ‘global warming’ is not the problem, quite the opposite, and the 2020 (next year’s) NH winter will be a snow, frost, freezing rain etc. doozy. Add to that a late spring or an early winter in the growing areas of the world and our ‘just-in-time’ system for food distribution will be well stress tested.
I wonder how the UN bureaucrats will really feel as they see the snow and ice build-up around their New York HQ?
@Larry L: That’s two good posts on events that would lead to the start of a NH glaciation.
My little asterisked comment about the Global Average Temperature (GAT) necessary for the start of a glaciation was too oblique.
We’ve discussed the necessary events and conditions here a few times previously. Those two comments you made, though, are a nice illustration of what were then a lot of comments when the topic was kicked around here.
What I was getting at is the Climate Prestidigitators focus on the Global Average Temperature, which could conceivably be a little above average at the start of the next glaciation. All it takes is some subtropical temperatures to be a bit above normal to cancel out the temperatures of the areas for the right conditions to start the glaciation.
That said, I’m going to revers myself and claim that there is some slightly lower than current average global temperature that will favor the conditions and events that start the next glaciation.
I don’t see many if any of the climacatastrophoastrologists pondering what that GAT might be. That was rhetorical, because all the money goes to warming, not cooling, so nobody is going to take a look at that.
The glaciologists do look at the events and conditions. I’m just not sure if they have gone past the local necessary conditions to tie stadials to the GAT. Maybe they are censured if they do?
Ohhhhh… maybe the necessary events and conditions come first, then the GAT starts dropping.
This much I do know; the reasons for the beginnings and ends of the stadials and interstadials are not known for certain, though I’ve read some good hypotheses.
My observations on snow build up are based on my personal experience in the winter of 1973 and 1962 here in Colorado. In 1962 we got down to -30 deg F temps and had 24+ inches of snow on the ground in January and it took a considerable period of time to melt things off. I was a bit too young that year to pay attention to the details but in 1972 – 73 we had a similar winter, backed up by the blizzard of 1982. in 1972 it snowed first significant snow on Halloween night while all the kids were out trick or treating. Snowed about 9 inches, near Thanksgiving Christmas we had deep snow 24+ and moderate sub zero temps -15 F, the ground here in the Denver Metro area was not snow free until early April so we had effectively snow covered ground for almost 7 months.
We have had snow seasons where they were still able to ski on slushy snow in late June and into July 4th if you did not mind skiing on rocks occasionally, that is getting very close to year round snow in the mountains as first snow in the high country can happen in late August and I know folks who had to wait out avalanche clearance of a snow slide on Loveland pass on the July 4th weekend. He was on a motor cycle and was not a happy camper.
@H.R.:
See that “Do ride my see-saw Mr. Bond” posting referenced in the prior WOOD. It covers this somewhat.
It isn’t the GAT that matters. GAT is a theoretical consequence, not a causal agent. What is causal is total insolation north of 65 latitude (more or less) modulated by ocean cycles. With “enough” heat being dumped into the high latitude oceans, ocean currents keep tropical water flowing north (strong Gulf Stream, for example). With ‘way too little’ we lock up in a cold condition for 100,000 years of Glacial (that is the normal state for most of the time, only about 10% to 15% of the time being otherwise…). In between is a “metastable state”. You can be warm and stay warm, or you can be cold and stay cold.
The present insolation above 65 latitude is in the metastable range.
We will stay warm as long as we stay warm enough to stay warm. IF (or WHEN) we go cold enough, we will latch up into cold enough to stay cold… Unless something else warms us back up enough…
IMHO, the LI.A. was almost cold enough for the latch up, but then solar cycles and orbital cycles changed just enough to pull us back to a warm flip. (There is a remote possibility we burned enough forests and ploughed enough ground help that happen…). To the extent that is true, and the next cold dip is colder (due to orbital and solar variations more the other way) we could easily be in the cold lock up state.
There’s a 1500 year cycle, the looks from what I can tell of geologic and human / empire history to have a 750 year sub-cycle and potentially a 375 or so year minor sub-harmonic. The LIA had onset about 1300 AD so about 2050 AD would be 750 years later (so could start in 2020 to 2030 and take 20 years to get bad enough to make history books). Looking back 1500 years we are at about 518 AD. In 536 AD there was a cold turn / Aw Shit of Biblical Proportions. So much so we have little history from anywhere about it really. It is usually called The Migration Period Pessimum as it was a horrid time with LOTS of folks running from Central Asia to anywhere South looking for warmth and food.
Subtracting 375 from 2018 gives 1643 and that was a pretty cold time in the depths of the L.I.A. Folks were leaving Europe for The Americas in hopes of better food and opportunities.
So exactly where are we in that 1500 year cycle? Hard to say. There is pretty good evidence it’s got a bimodal character with 1300 and 1800 year nodes, only averaging to 1500. So you can do kinda nuts on the cyclemania wiggle fits with 3 numbers to choose from ( 1300, 1500, 1800) plus the implied 200 or so year error bands.
Which brings us back to The Sun and The Orbit. They are the constant in this metronome. What they show is we are well inside the metastable range of 65 N insolation and that we are headed into a cold sun period and continued orbital changes to colder. Beyond that is speculation.
But directed speculation with appropriate error bands / stochastic effects bands; can be very useful.
Given the prior known cold times, it is, IMHO, most likely that we will have a cold dip about every 350, 750, and 1500 (and they alignments…) years. It’s also clear that as soon as we have a Very Cold One, we can latch up into a Glacial Cycle (that will continue to have warming / cooling oscillations in it); so it all comes down to this: Was the L.I.A. the 1500 (average) year event happening on a 1300 year node? Or was it the 750 year event (starting in 1300) and this next cold plunge is “The Big One”? That isn’t knowable right now, but to the extent Zharkova is right, it is A Big One and could very well latch us up into the drop into a Glacial event. IF it fails, then we likely have another 1300 years or so of “nice” before we are at the lower bound of metastable and entering “cold stable only” insolation 65 N land.
That’s my read on it, anyway.
In short: It’s not the GAT that makes the ice, it’s the insolation 65N that makes the GAT and the Ice.
I just read this on another site and found it interesting:
“I just talked to a very good friend who lives in Honduras, I called her because I was worried about the situation in her country and also her thoughts about the march.This was her answer, which I asked her to send in writing, so as not to omit or add words:
‘No Kathy, everything is normal, here in Honduras, thousands of people have already returned.
‘The government of Honduras has created a place for those who return, where they provide shelter, medicines and basic needs until they can return to their normal lives.
‘Some have admitted that they were paid to make the crossing, but many also realized that they were used to achieve a dream that does not exist.Some even sold all their belongings and now
they have nothing.
‘Just to see how they use women and children by placing them as shields in front of the march, is obvious and very sad.Most of those who remain are “mareros” (Gangs of El Salvador) and many other nationalities that are not from my country.This movement was provoked by the rogues of Mel Zelaya (candidate for President of Honduras who lost the elections) with the help of Venezuela..
‘Life in Honduras is still normal, people working, studying … life is the same.
‘If you are informed by CNN, I only ask you to believe half of it, the manipulation of the truth is horrible, especially Jorge Ramos and one called Del Rincon.’ ”
It was posted about a quarter of an hour ago.
Per the Snow Blanket process:
I agree. Escaping the ice sheet is a “one walk a day”. Escaping the snow fields is a “drive out in spring”…
Per crops:
Yes, the BIG losers will be those countries with massive population growth and lots of imported food. That’s the Muslim World by and large. China to some extent.
EVENTUALLY Canada and Russia enter the food problem too, but initially (where “initially” can be hundreds of years) they still have lots of summer growing land. Summer shortens, but does not go away in most of those vast continental lands. Will there be individual years where a “total crop failure” can happen due to just too much of a snow field? I’d say yes. But then the inherent cycle variability of weather will cause a melt before too long. It WILL be traumatic (look at New England in 1800 And Froze to Death) in regions, and likely the same results will follow: Folks moving south and west from those regions. (And the hangers on doing OK not great in following years).
Look at the huge increase in temperature volatility in the climb out of the last Ice Age Glacial. We get the same as we drop in, with some years nearly like now and some just frozen all summer. But stair stepping down into the cold lockup.
The best places to be will be the USA, Australia & Brazil. All have massive agricultural production and export a lot, while staying relatively warm. The worst places to be will be the far north (as they just freeze) and the overpopulated marginal food importers (China, Muslim World, parts of Africa). The “at risk but unclear” would include places like Japan that can’t feed itself but has lots of productive capacity and sits in a warm water current, India with a massive population in fully exploited land on a low-meat diet already, and Saudi Arabia area with more money than God and lots of in demand petroleum. Then there is Europe. Hard to say what happens there. Needs imported food AND gets whacked hard when the Gulf Stream slows. Yet the Mediterranean does well. It will likely be a mixed bag based on country conditions.
Of all of it, my best guess is that Texas and Florida work out the best (modulo some areas in Brazil where my knowledge is too low to gauge but look good too). California would be ideal but for the overpopulation for the water supply and risk of decade long near total droughts.
So that’s my best crystal ball gazing. Worth all you paid for it ;-)
@Power Grab:
That, for me, is the most bothersome thing. The realization that most of the angst and misery in the world is either a “put up job” or an outright fraud. That our “elected representatives” are largely part of a big Con Game being run against us. That, basically, ALL the news media are corrupt and “controlled for effect”.
The loss of naivete was a bit traumatic… and took me much of a couple of decades.
But being ‘red pilled’ is a one way street, and now I’m looking at the box from outside the game…
Too bright to be duped by it anymore. Too moral to be inside the con profiting from it. Too small a cog to overturn or fix it. Too jaded to really even rail against it all that much anymore.
Oh Well… At least I can enjoy watching the fireworks as parts of the Con implode. Like the Invading Mob discovering they were sold a fantasy and that Trumps Wall is real and working, even if made of Men In Green with barbed wire and tear gas… Or watching Theresa “Brexit In Name Only” May try to sell perpetual satrapy as freedom to a hostile Parliament. (“BINO”? Better to make a clean escape with what you can in a Hard BREXIT). Or watching Soros lose Ukraine, Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Austria, and now even Italy… and know it’s a bitter pill to his “erase European Nations” agenda. Take your comforts where you can.
@Power Grab – Thanks for passing along that report from Honduras.
The group we have now on our border is pretty much a defined group of people we absolutely don’t want in the U.S.
It was also nice to hear that some of the pawns got clue and left the board. Good for them.
I found Zharkova’s talk fascinating and the time flew by, it did take a little while to adjust to the audio quality but I didn’t miss anything. The big take away from her talk for me was that it will only take 5 to 10 years before we will know whether her prediction of 3 solar cycles at the same level as the 5 solar cycles of the Maunder minimum will take place.
The one unknown in the climate shift out come will be if/when things get bad enough that high tech countries like Japan go hard for nuclear energy and vertical synthetic sun green houses and desalination for water deprived areas like California, to beat the climate shift and food shortage.
In theory with employment of unlimited energy nuclear systems the ice age could be not that bad in many areas that otherwise would be wind swept tundra the scifi dream of domed cities or cities where buildings are connected with causeways and tunnels could make some of those areas viable even in ice age conditions. Once the ice sheet develops, ice farming for water also becomes a possibility.
You wrote: “Too jaded to really even rail against it all that much anymore.”
I’ve always been busy enough with other things to be a railer about what other people do.
I did, years ago, find myself in a job situation that caused stress. Stress impacted my nervous system, specifically I started having pylorospasms.
First we did a lot of test to see if I was allergic to something. NEG!
Doctor finally said, you have either been to Africa and have parasites, or your nerves are trying to tell you something. Having never been to Africa, he said fix your nerves.
Since then I have tended to view earthlings from a distance. Problem solved.
I know a person that does rail. Most recently about immigrants. He now goes to counselling.
~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Regarding snow, ice, glacier
Snow accumulation can vary from fast to very slow; a very local thing.
It takes >60 feet of ice to begin to move via gravity on a level surface.
Glaciers are usually defined in this mass movement combination. Disruptive snow depth and cold dry winds will be happening long before the ice starts to flow.
Thanks EM for the link to Valentina Zharkova! It seems to me likely that she is right so…
Anybody got plans for geo-engineering?
Perhaps nuclear powered space stations to generate the magnetic fields required to deflect the in-coming high energy protons that cause the cloud build-up?
I also used to internalize lots of things – after working for government for 14 years I realized it was going to kill me, so I shifted to a more detached approach also.
Basically is something bothers me, my first test regarding should I care is – “can I do anything effective about it”? If I effectively have no ability to influence the issue, I assign it to “not my circus not my monkeys” and let go of it, I might watch it, but I know that problem belongs to someone who can change things, I accomplish nothing by tearing myself up over something I have no control over or input into.
The tough one is when you have some ability to influence an issue but to do so might cause you harm, for example you want to donate some money to a worthwhile cause, but if you do you won’t be able to pay your rent sort of problem. Then you have to use the doctors guide to “first do no harm” in search and rescue they pound it into you that your first duty to the victim is not to become a second victim.
In that case you need to pay that one forward later in some other way and some other time and place.
We need to deploy members of the Union of Concerned Scientists and the American Society for the Advancement of Science on stationary bikes fitted with generators to make up for slack wind and solar. That will provide of with a bonus of them being too tired to make bogus public FUD announcements.
Globalists won’t easily let go their global warming inconvenient untruth. More here on the Trilateral Commission behind the U.N. pervasive Agenda 21 with its aim of bringing in a New World Economic Order..Founded by David Rockefeller and Zbigniew Brzezinski, its members include Bill Clinton, George Soros and Al Gore. 9 out of 12 US Trade reps, 6/8 World Bank Presidents, 10/12 US national Security Advisers have been Trilateral Members. Its stated policy is to replace the present economic system via energy management to create a controlled society dominated by an elite technocrat guvuhmint in which Parliamentary Congress has no place (Links not working so I will find it and post.).
Trilateral Commission for a New World Economic Order.
@ HR re report from Honduras: You’re welcome :-)
@ EM re Brazil. I know some people there. What questions do you need answers to from people with boots on the ground?
Our government scientists doggedly manipulate the data to predict disasters that never happen while ignoring the positive effects of rising CO2 concentrations. For example, in spite of rocketing CO2 concentrations:
– Global Warming is not happening. Temperatures have flat lined since 1998 unless you believe NASA GISS manipulated data.
– Agricultural productivity is rising relentlessly because plants need more CO2 rather than less.
– Extreme weather like hurricanes and tornadoes are in decline relative to the past. To blame Trump for recent hurricanes is evidence of insanity.
I could go on but I am preaching to the converted.
@Power Grab:
Appreciate the offer, but I was just pointing out I’m not moving to Brazil so don’t really know (nor really care) what are the good places to move… even if other folks might want to go there.
Just saying anyone thinking of moving to South America needs to work it out on their own ’cause I’m going to Florida ;-)
I’ve seen occasional reports of snow in South Brazil so I’d presume the warm winter bits are the coastal areas in the northern 2/3… plus the inland near Brazilia – but I don’t know if moving to the interior ever caught on.
For my purposes, it’s sort of like Mexico: I’m pretty sure coastal southern half will be just fine, but I don’t want to live there so spent no brain cell time on it 8-0
@G.C.:
Go ahead and preach… I could use the motivational ;-)
Just FYI, there is often a bit of double counting in the “corn fed to livestock”. Of the corn going into alcohol production, only 70% of the mass is starch. What remains is oil, protein, fiber, etc…some of which which we use to feed livestock (like the “laying mash” people that keep chickens will often buy). And of course the stalks are also eaten by livestock as well.
Just for interest, the BBC are still telling us that it’s going to get a lot warmer at https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46343103 . Shame it looks like they’re going to be wrong…. In the comments, though, quite a few people point out that it would be rather nice to have good summers, so they aren’t being sufficiently frightened by the claims. I suspect the febrile claims of needing to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C (or 1.2°C if you’re really worried) no longer have an audience except for those who want to have control.
@Simon D: I point out here and there in comments on various blogs that I am for global warming. It sure beats the alternative. I’m not joking, either.
While in checkout lines and a few other places where strangers exchange idle pleasantries, I have heard others ask in jest, “Where is that Global Warming we were promised?” when the weather outside is cold and snowy.
In spells of hot weather, I cannot recall anyone expressing concern over Global Warming or even relating the heat wave to Global Warming. Of course “Global Warming!!!” is everywhere in the media during a hot spell, but it seems the general public isn’t buying it.
The propaganda switch to “Climate Change” appears not to be working, either. It seems that no one can get a handle on just exactly what the heck Climate Change is supposed to be. Extreme weather events painted as Climate Change fall flat because there are too many people that, for any given weather event being touted as “Worst EVAH!” there’s always a lot of people old enough to scoff and say, “You think this is bad? You should have seen it in 19XX! or 20XX” That usually kills the propaganda buzz.
I’m just backing up your observations from across the pond of apathy or outright disbelief across with what I’m seeing here in the U.S. Mid-west.
It seems that very few people, except those with a vested financial interest or the gullible and indoctrinated, are buying the Man-made Climate Catastrophe propaganda anymore. “Move along now. Go peddle your papers somewhere else,” they say. In my view, the general public has hit the ‘off’ switch and is no longer engaged.
@H.R.
The “GAST” is useless for the kinds of predictions you want to make because it obscures and/or eliminates the information you need. “F” the GAST. What you want to know is 1. Peak insolation at the surface around 60N. That’s declining, in part, because the axial tilt is declining. That’s about 23.44 degrees of angle right now and the orbital mechanics are such that the tilt is declining. Then you need to know the actual range of cloudiness and the actual composition of the surface. 2. That’s just the beginning.
You want to know what the peak is since that bounds your actual potential heating (actual increase in the internal kinetic energy of your defined sample) of the skin. Then you need to know the trend in the peak that is affected by precession of the equinoxes, since that bounds that actual total possible, not considering spectrum variation or the axial tilt. More UV = more potential heating and more potential chemical reactions that may or may not allow more heating; plus potential effects on the somewhat hexagonal polar vortex’s shape.
There’s a reason folks move to Florida, Arizona, and other retirement destinations as soon as they can. There’s a reason every winter Florida fills up with “snowbirds”. There’s a reason a load of Canadians and Brits show up in Florida every winter. There’s a reason nobody but hard core skiing enthusiasts head to high cold snow in winter.
Warm is good. Cold is bad.
How anyone north of Virginia can be afraid of more warmth by a degree or two (or 5 of 10 ;-) is beyond me… I suspect it’s a really hard sell in Siberia ;-)
@ EM re “The loss of naivete was a bit traumatic… and took me much of a couple of decades.”
I’m sorry to hear that it was traumatic. :-(
Anyone who has been through farm country, has seen rows of corn in fields. If they watch over the growing season, they will see that corn brown and eventually die. THEN the farmer harvests it. This is not your silver queen at the supermarket. This is feed corn. I have had to explain that to many folks who wonder who would ‘eat dried out corn”. Answer – pigs and cows. And chickens.
I go with LIA. Long enough to kill the Global warming mantra (they will figure out how to blame the LIA on man and how we must reverse our effects).
The irony is that communism is the birthplace of Lysenkoism. But it has been adopted by the west, while its birthplace (and others similar) have long rejected it. China knows what is coming. It is hedging its bets. It talks the AGW line because it wants to cripple the west and get subsidies. But it knows what is coming.
Canada will not be a total loss. The Pacific Northwest (and Alaska) did very well during the last glaciation, and I suspect those dynamics to continue. Which means a westward migration for Canadians, and not much hospitality for snowflakes in the western provinces. But they will survive.
Europe would as well – if they had fewer folks. Makes you wonder if God built a survival mechanism into the species since before the madness of the current leaders in Europe, the populations of most of the European countries was declining (or slowing to stagnation with eventual decline). It is coincidences like that, which make you think Man is not so smart after all – and perhaps he has some help.
@PhilJourdan:
Yes, we feed field corn (properly Flint or Dent corn) to pigs, cows, chickens, fish, etc. etc. Yes, it is NOT sweet corn on the cob. That said:
It is very much edible by people and lots of people DO eat it. It can be made into all sorts of traditional Mexican foods. Polenta, tortillas, even grits. In anything like a food emergency, I’ll take dry old field corn over sweet corn any day. More food value in it and it can be kept for years.
There’s a lot of details about the different sub-types and who’s best for what food, but it’s all edible one way or another. Dent corn makes somewhat better flour and can usually be eaten as a “sweet corn” if picked very young (and you don’t mind it being more ‘hint of sweet’ than real sugar sweet). Flint corn, as the name implies, can be hard as flint. Best ground on a power grinder (or rock grinder) and then you can soak it if needed…
Field corn is basically the same uses as “Indian corn”. Use the same methods. Treated with lie for proper masa harina.
So while we DO ship almost all the field corn to animal feed processors, nothing prevents us eating it in a food emergency. (I’d add some beans to the mix… and just like most soybeans go to animal feed, we can also eat it – though with more detailed processing if you eat more than a small amount). Similarly much “bird seed” is made of sorghum & millet. Both make decent human food as flour, grits, or cooked whole grains.
When you are starving first you eat the chickens, cows, and pigs; then you eat their feed…
For what it is worth.
https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2018-11-27-winter-misery-index-awssi-extreme-start-november-2018
Always amazes me how we are assumed to be helpless in the face of climate change – when we have the tech prowess to make the Earth’s climate our bitch. Eg:
-Mirrors or sunshades in orbit (or at L1),
-Oceanic propellers to move heat around the planet (a few kW of power can move GW of heat energy)
-Pumping seawater up onto icecaps if we get worried about sea level rise (10000m³/s spread over Antartica and Greenland would keep it in check).
It’s obviously not a real problem. If earth warms 1-2 degrees, the tropics don’t get warmer (convective temperature clamping by ocean evaporation and thunderstorms prevents ocean temps above 30°C), but the temperate regions get much nicer to live in.
@ philjourdan re: “Canada will not be a total loss. The Pacific Northwest (and Alaska) did very well during the last glaciation, and I suspect those dynamics to continue. Which means a westward migration for Canadians, and not much hospitality for snowflakes in the western provinces. But they will survive.”
I read a rather long thread on Twitter today about how Albertans have been hurting big time by the failure of the gummint to build the pipeline(s). It sounded really pitiful.
That went on quite a while, then someone chimed in on the thread that GM was closing the plant in Ontario. So there go thousands of jobs in the east.
So that made me wonder if they’re trying to vacate western Canada like they’re trying to vacate Australia…because it won’t be such a bad place to survive in the ice age…if you can just get rid of the locals…? /sarc (of course)
Oh wait…I just brought up a map of Canada. Alberta isn’t THAT FAR west, is it?
philjourdan, can you give us some more details about why you say western Canada doesn’t get that bad in an ice age?
Just store 5 years of food and think about how to secure your power generation.
Fresh water won’t be a problem with snow and ice in your backyard.
With a big food stock you have all the time to adapt.
We can still learn from the past.
The end of the Medieval Warmth Period came abrupt and almost immediately when a number of very wet growing seasons drowned the crops which triggered wide spread famines. The black plague epidemic did the rest and it took over a century before the population levels started to recover again. Farmers and monks adapted their farming and crop growing strategies to the cold weather regime.
The old convent gardens in Europe had small enclosed gardens with a stone wall facing the south.
The gardens were covered with rows of dark rocks to catch heat from the sun and they had several stone fire pits to burn wood when frost threatened the plants. Some of the gardens were deeper, about 60 centimeter, another strategy for planting herbs and vegetables in a colder climate.
The so called “hofjes” where little houses were build in a squire with a central garden was another response to the colder climate. It was not only the cold but also the wars people had to cope with. If a crop didn’t freeze up it was trampled by the horses of the enemy because killing a crop in the summer brought starvation in the winter, obviously an ideal way to get rid of your opponents. Only when the potato was introduced (and accepted) and trade with the Baltic region and Sweden in the North resulting in grain filled storage chambers and newly erected ware houses, well into the second half of the Little Ice Age, famines came to an end. The Maunder Minimum, the coldest period during the LIA brought the live stock from the field into the stables, next to the living room and totally changed farming strategies. Mixed farms where the animals fertilized the land and more variation in the life stock eventually increased food security.
The time to adapt is the critical factor.
The Roman Empire obviously didn’t get any time to adapt,
They went from a benign climate into a nuclear winter caused by a series of volcanic eruption that blocked sun light for at least 18 months on a row.
Famines and the Justinian Plague killed approx. 50 million people and kicked Europe into the Dark Ages for a period of almost 1000 years.
Is Valentina Zarkhova any relation to this guy:
https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/headhuntersholosuite/images/7/78/Hans_Zarkov.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20171001010348
Who was the hero against an attempt to interfere with the world’s weather.
@Power Grab – During the last glaciation, the ice moved down and covered most of the northern 3rd of the US, and thus Canada, except in the Pacific Northwest. Apparently the weather dynamics that keep that part damp and wet AND moderate most of the year was enough to keep the temperature moderate during the last glaciation, so while I am sure they had some snow, they were not covered in ice. Even Alaska was thought to be moderate (the coast, not interior) in temperature compared to what the rest of the continent was doing.
The Jet Stream comes in from the west, as does all the west coast weather. VERY rarely, a Canadian Clipper will send a wall of cold air into the central lower 48 and it will have enough momentum to temporarily get a little across the Rockies AND the Sierra Nevada and give us a taste of cold… but not much, not for long, and warmed along the way.
Almost all the time, that giant body of water that is the Pacific Ocean keeps temperatures above freezing along the coast, and for a variable distance inland. Even inland the frozen doesn’t last long unless you are up a mountain.
The “issue” here is that delivered water is highly variable. We know of one 900 year drought (from a tree found having grown in the bottom of what is usually a lake…) and decade long drought isn’t that rare. Other years we get a Pineapple Express and floods of Biblical Proportion (look up Lake Sacramento – the inland State Capital was raised 14 feet on hauled in landfill to prevent that happening again to the city).
So not frozen, but that whole crop growing thing depends on a LOT of high tech massive civilization supported and maintained infrastructure build…
Thanks for the explanation. I figured something like that, but did not recall they explained in the article I read.
Here in Colorado we get those Alberta clippers that dive down along the front range with bitterly cold weather, often in mid January, but most of the time the cold front is not too deep (vertically) so it can be subzero in the Denver basin and up the hill just a few miles it might be 50 degrees, but every once in a while the cold outbreak is deep and has enough wind behind it that it pours into the north central mountain valleys and then it gets really cold up there.
Then we will have intense cold that last for several weeks.
The real “Global Warming” tragedy is how easy it is to corrupt science and scientists. Very few scientists have integrity by which I mean that most scientists are happy to lie for money or fame.
This is not the first time. Trofim Lysenko’s theories were endorsed by Josef Stalin and millions died from starvation as a result. Many thousands of innocent people were murdered or sent to gulags for opposing Lysenko’s “Junk Science”.
@gallopingcamel, Yes, just like Lysenkoism that killed millions of Russians.
It’s the same sociopathic bunch of Commies that stick behind this.
@ E.M: https://www.iceagenow.info/freeze-watch-in-central-florida-weeks-ahead-of-normal/
There were times when Florida and Frost would people make their index finger point to their head like snow in on the Costa’s of Southern Spain or North Africa.
Now even the Saudi Camels know what snow is and that for three years on a row.
AGW is dead. The first uprising against Government policy and fuel prices already has started and yesterday Fermany claimed they will be Co2 emission free by 2030.
Nobody believes this crap.
If Co2 emissions really were a problem we would be killing termites as they produce 7 times more Co2 than humanity.
@Power Grab – Here’s a link to maps of the last glaciation posted on Ice Age Now.
Take a look at Alaska and the Pacific Northwest that Phil J. referred to..
https://www.iceagenow.com/Ice-Age_Maps.htm
Interesting video clip of glaciation in the Colorado Rockies, it sometimes pans a bit too fast to take it all in so be prepared to pause the video occasionally to get your bearings, and absorb the details.
Clearly even at the height of glaciation the major metro areas of Colorado were not at any significant risk from glaciation although the many large glaciers would make the mountain passes all basically impassible and would cut the state up into districts much harder to move between.
I take the video to indicate that for the most part Colorado did not have the sort of snow depths needed to maintain large glaciers except in a few isolated places like in the south central mountains near Wolf Creek Pass which today gets winter snow packs of 400+ inches, and even there it never reached total ice pack coverage of the mountains.
Bottom line Colorado would during a cold out break get significantly colder but precipitation would not change all that much, perhaps seasonal snow fall would double, so Denver metro area might see up to 90″ of snow a winter instead of approx 45″.
This second reference shows the western US glacial extent in a single map image.
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.595.9495&rep=rep1&type=pdf
R. de Haan says: 29 November 2018 at 7:59 am
“If Co2 emissions really were a problem we would be killing termites as they produce 7 times more Co2 than humanity.”
Don’t be silly, Termites are much more inportant than mere “people”, just ask any Greenie from the Club of Rome or UK Royalty.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46374141 says that 2018 will likely be the fourth warmest on record. Personally, I’ve not seen as much sun as expected here, and so I’m inclined to think the data is wrong. There seems to be an increased amount of shrillness in the warnings of global doom if we allow another 0.5°C rise, and don’t cut our CO2 emissions to zero over the next few years. There’s also a call to go vegan to reduce the amount of Methane produced by cattle (but no-one mentions the termite population, of course).
Maybe they know they’re running out of time before it becomes obviously cooler all on its own, and so they won’t be able to claim it’s because of the destruction of the Western society. Let’s see what this winter is like….
Among the people I know, there seems to be little doubt that the message is being received that It’s All Our Fault Because CO2. Maybe there’s a belief that scientists never lie and don’t make mistakes, and that governments are noble and also never lie. Also maybe a hope that the UN really wants the best for the world, and doesn’t want to control anything except for the general good of all….
It seems that the temperature peaks of the 1930s are no longer remembered, or maybe they’ve been adjusted down by now so they no longer figure in the records. If the data doesn’t fit the theory, simply adjust the data so it does. In science terms, this is severe malpractice, but it seems to be endemic. Of course, if you look at the history of science, it’s also not new, either. Data against the paradigm of the time is rejected until the paradigm changes and people look again at the reality (or at least as closely as the instruments allow).
I can’t help thinking that there must be a few people who ensure that inconvenient data is laughed away, and that the people at the top run on a set of beliefs rather than logic. It’s after all easier to have a doctrine of infallibility rather than admit that, great though our knowledge of what works actually is, there is most likely a lot of stuff that would work if we actually tried it, but it isn’t tried because it’s thought to be impossible.
From the second reference above the lowest elevation of glacial cirque development in the Rockies near 40 deg latitude was approximately 10,860 ft elevation
This reference is a nicely done Thesis by Selena K. Neale University of Colorado Boulder in 2016
https://scholar.colorado.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2456&context=honr_theses
Neale, Selena, “Pinedale Glaciation at Longs Peak and Glacier Gorge” (2016).Undergraduate Honors Theses. 1261.https://scholar.colorado.edu/honr_theses/1261
In which she gives a quick and understandable discription of the dynamics of glaciation, then works out the approximate date ranges for the Pinedale Glaciation in the Rocky Mountain Park area in Colorado. The Pinedale Glaciation is the most recent glacial advance and her dating indicates Pinedale glacial development began about 30 K years ago, and reached its maximum somewhere between 19 – 22 k years ago.
Her basic conclusion is that at the last glacial maximum here in Colorado temperatures in the glacial areas of today’s Rocky Mountain Park were likely between 2 – 9 deg C colder than current temperatures and precipitation was near modern values or slightly higher.
Pollen data indicate that the upper margin of tree line was at about 300 – 700 meters lower than today which implies at temperature shift of -2.1 C and an increase in precipitation of about 7 cm to a cooling of -5 deg C and an increase in precipitation of about 16 cm of water.
Since typical ratio of liquid water to snow depth is around 10:1 here in Colorado due to our cold dry climate that implies snow depths increased by about +2.3 ft to near +5 ft per season.
I really like these student thesis presentations they have not been in the field long enough to smother you with jargon and the jargon that they do use is typically explained.
Where ever you are Selena – nice job!
@Larry L:
Remember that the ice accumulates slowly over the entire 100,000 year life of the glacial cycle. Your Denver Glaciers won’t reach full extent until 100,000 years from now (just like the “maximum extent” you noted for Pinedale came at the end of the last Glacial).
@All:
Downpour happening here. Expecting a few feet of snow in the Sierra Nevada; then the WeatherNation report shows snow falling in every state until Texas… I suspect as they predict further out we’ll get more snow predicted for places like Chicago.
This storm is chasing one that IS dumping on Chicago and one beyond that whacking the New England area.
It looks to me like snow whacking a whole lot of everywhere but The South…
The good news is the fires in California will be snuffed and drowned.
Yes aware of that on the gradual accumulation of the snow fall, not particularly worried about maximum equilibrium extent of glaciation since I will be not be here to see it, but Selena’s thesis gives me really good bounds for changes in temperatures and precipitation to expect during a LIA type cycle. That gives a good idea of what sort of climate changes to expect as cooling occurs. Basically her numbers imply that as the cooling sets in, our winters will tend to become more like current historical extreme winters so peak snows in the Denver Metro could go back toward the sort of snows seen in 1914 Denver blizzard (45 inches single storm) the deep snows and sharp cold of 1962 winter (-30 deg F temps 30 inches of snow on the ground) or the the Denver blizzard of 1982 where we had general snow of 24-30 inches and drifting to 4+ ft. All of which I have directly experienced except for the 1914 snows.
Since my winter car got totaled 3 weeks ago, I am again shopping for a replacement “snow car” and trying to decide what features I should be looking for. The Subaru Outback wagon and to a lesser extent the Forester were ideal for moderate snow and plowed roads, but a little bit short of ground clearance, and fender clearance for real deep snow that my old 86 full sized Jeep Cherokee and 88 Jeep J10 pickup would laugh at. Unfortunately as manufactures have down sized cars, the big 4×4’s like the Cherokee are harder to find and if anywhere near new cost a small fortune.
Right now leaning toward a late 1990’s early 2000’s Jeep Grand Cherokee with a small lift kit, I see them occasionally on Craig’s list but they don’t last long. The more recent Jeeps with the 33 tires are a bit too much of a good thing and most are too expensive for my budget for a car I will only drive 3-5k miles a year. One of them was listed locally last weekend but only lasted about 36 hours before someone gobbled it up.
With a 2 inch lift you get this sort of ground clearance which is reasonably civilized (you don’t need a ladder to get in the car) but would still let me drive through 18″ 24″ drifts on my way home from work when Boulder County can’t be bothered to send out the snow plows until 5:00 the morning after the storm..
Jeep GC front view with lift kit
Jeep GC side view with lift kit
Another nice photo map of glacial extent during the last glacial. It also shows sand dune areas that built up (implying cold windy and dry condtions, along with the prevailing wind direction that created the dunes. (the image is much easier to interpret if you put it in an image program and play with the gamma and saturation a little to improve the contrast)
http://coloradogeologicalsurvey.org/colorado-geology/glacial-geology/
An interactive display of ice age glaciation (uses flash) which allows you to walk through time and see the glacial extent for that time period by clicking the arrows on the far right of the display to move through the time line. Shows how the north west down slope gap in glaciation kept a corridor clear during much of the ice age.
https://www.nps.gov/features/romo/feat0001/BasicsIceAges.html
@Larry L:
You might consider checking Craigslist in other towns. It can easily be worth a $100 flight… Folks in places like California buy a lot of Jeeps for skiing, but then get tired of them… not so much of a “must have” market here…
https://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/cta?auto_make_model=jeep+cherokee
right now shows a 2003 for $4000 and a 2000 for $2500. Even a 1988 2 door (styled ‘rare’) for $2500. It claims 810 total listings.
I’d be willing to act as driver / ersatz-uber if you needed a ride to look at some choices. (I like looking at Jeeps too ;-)
It is remarkable to me just how much different markets price up or down various classes of cars. You might want to check out Dallas as well. They have a LOT of trucks!
Yes very interesting how just shifting locations can make a difference on craigs list, if I go to the boulder craigs list there are either two classes, newish cars that the owners are asking top blue book for or ski bum cars that are dirt cheap but have a lot of wear and tear. Move to the Denver craigs list and a lot more options and craigs list returns more out of town hits for areas outside the actual metro area so better choices.
I have never had to shop for cars outside the area to get a good deal but will keep that in mind in case something magic shows up on one of the listings out there.
” Or watching Theresa “Brexit In Name Only” May try to sell perpetual satrapy as freedom”
Yeah – I still don’t “get” the need for some agreement for that – I would have thought that if England simply re-wrote it’s laws to exclude EU stuff, there is bugger-all anyone can do about it. Given England sells more to rest of EU than rest of EU sells to England, any “punishment” is likely to affect the EU more than England. Why don’t they “just do it”?
@Kneel:
I think you may have that backwards. IIRC, there’s about $50 Billion / year of excess EU stuff sold in the UK. So if the EU goes and puts up punitive tariff barriers, the UK just matches them, and pockets the extra $50 Billion it no longer ships to the EU… (Mostly German cars, so it basically comes down to buying other makers cars… Who needs a Mercedes when a Lexus will do?…)
Germany would get tired of that Real Quick.
The other thing wrong with that Central Bank “Project Fear” stress test Monster Story is that it was presented as “worst case if everything went wrong” but reported as “this is what WILL happen”. No mention at all of “What happens when the rest of the world takes up the slack on trading”?
No “what’s the good case”.
@de Haan’
“Nobody believes this crap.”
You are right the “Debate is Over” and the Alarmists lost. That is why so many “Denier” sites shut down. The Alarmists simply retreated to their echo chambers. I miss Jeff Id, Verity Jones, Lucia, McIntyre, Goddard etc.
There are still a few good sites. I like “Climate Etc.”, Tallbloke and Roy Spencer’s blog.
Our fearless leader is still going strong as “Climate Change” is not his only issue.
Re shopping for cars at a distance:
I bought a car on eBay one time that was not very far from where an out-of-state relative lived. It was almost Thanksgiving, and I was planning to go to the relative’s house for the holiday. So I asked the relative to drive to examine/purchase the car.
I had already talked on the phone with the seller. We made plans to meet at a fast food restaurant and let me and my relative take the car for a test drive. The seller had their folder of maintenance records in hand, so I was able to review all that paperwork, too.
So I did finalize the deal and drove away in the car, with my relative in their own car, and we made our way back to the relative’s house. It went fine.
@Larry L Try using Search Tempest for an easy, fast way to sort through Craigslistings:
https://www.searchtempest.com/
Quail – thanks for the tip will check that out.
Speaking of termites!
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-11/cp-4tm111318.php
Last winter the UK had record levels of excess death due to cold. (highest since 1976)
There were 50,100 excess deaths in England and Wales last winter, when there was a prolonged spell of extreme cold, making it the highest number since 1976, figures have shown.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/nov/30/excess-winter-deaths-in-england-and-wales-highest-since-1976
@G.C.:
Yeah, once I realized it was NOT a “science issue” but all political all the time, I shifted to looking at some of the politics of it. Now I don’t so nearly enough “science” articles, but struggle with the “guilt at not doing it” vs the “why waste time on a sideshow fraud for political cover for the warmistas?”
@Ossqss:
OMG! 4000 year old termite mounds? The size of Britain? …
@Larry:
Things that keep me motivated… just angry at the stupid… Let folks have coal and live.
Sorry, but I’ve been away from posting for about a month, and can finally return.
This topic is of some interest to me.
What first comes to mind is that we should see some increase in glacier accretion in places where it has been decreasing persistently, if slowly. For inland glaciers, this should also make its presence known in Spring/Summer meltwater changes of volume and possibly temperature.
Secondly, the far North Canadian melt line ( the place where Summer melt meets persistent snow) should move measurably south on a decadal scale. This should be ‘measurable from Space’, and with Eyeball 1.0 anywhere North of the Canadian Provinces, and accompanied (perhaps presaged) by failures of Northern Canadian Lakes to completely melt in Summer. That does not take a precip change, just a temp change, and with the thousands of lakes available, could make quite a study
As moisture fails to make it back to the Oceans as persistently as it does now, we may see changes in the flow volumes into the rivers feeding the Great Lakes, the depth of the St. Lawrence, in European rivers fed from the Alps, and perhaps even the Mackenzie heading North in Canada. Ultimately, the accretion of Snow/Ice on land at the expense of meltwater should be reflected in tidal gauges where the land is stable.
I don’t think the initial stages of this are going to happen rapidly, but could be largely mitigated, if there is a will to do so, for several centuries through some highly-focused applications: transport (snow/Ice removal/shipment for storage) and eventually of Nuclear power, eg., Radiant snowmelters/harvesters generating a freshwater supply, while limiting the extent of the snow/ice accumulation to areas chosen for winter sport development… mountains need not apply.
I am not so much a fan of chilling off already warm places in the Ocean, but it could be done. Or, if it were found advantageous, sub-ice heat pumps could be installed in the arctic that would keep sea lanes from getting too icey for icebreakers, or to keep increased regions of the arctic iced over to limit winter heat loss. That sort of program would likely have unexpected consequences, but well within our technical ability today.
Ok, enough of that. Back to work.
E.M. says Nunn”Like I said, we have a huge excess capacity to grow food.”
I agree, yet we should perhaps never underestimate the ability of government to make an initial reduction in production FUBAR.
You know- creating ” sand shortages in a desert” and all that. It is what they do.
Do not know where the “Nunn” came in, ah it was suppose to be
… and the hold was short and the phone got creative.
And – – – the transition to its all our fault global warming = global cooling has begun.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-28/scientists-weak-ocean-circulation-could-signify-incoming-mini-ice-age
Tinkering a bit more with trying to anticipate changes as a major cooling event takes place for the high plains of Colorado and northern central plains states.
Based on the changes in the altitude of the lowest boundary of the glaciers in the pinedale glaciation and the shifts in timber line that occurred I took some of the above information and distilled it down to these approximate values:
The basic conclusions are that at the last glacial maximum here in Colorado, temperatures in the glacial areas of today’s Rocky Mountain Park were likely between 2 – 9 deg C colder than current temperatures and precipitation was near modern values or slightly higher.
Pollen data indicate that tree line was at about 300 – 700 meters (985 – 2300 ft) lower than today which implies at temperature shift of between -2.1 C and -5 deg C (-3.8 to -9 deg F) along with an increase in precipitation of about 7 cm to 16 cm of water. This implies that extreme January cold in the Denver metro corridor could drop to -35 to -40 deg F during the full glacial cold cycle, this would be roughly like Helena Montana today which has a record low temperature of -42 deg F, and their average winter low temp in January is 13 deg F compared to Denver’s average January low temperature of 18 deg F.
Looking at the plant hardiness zones:
The Plant Hardines Zone for Helena is …….. 4a: -30°F to -25°F
The Plant Hardiness Zone for Denver Metro is: 6a: -10°F to – 5°F
Since typical ratio of liquid water to snow depth in Colorado is around 10:1 due to our cold dry climate, that implies snow depths increased by about +2.3 ft to near +5 ft per season.
Then to evaluate the changes in growing season we look to current growing season frost free days.
City First Frost (fall) Last frost (spring)
Colorado
Denver 10/4 4/30 (157 days)
Julesburg 9/24 5/7 (140 days)
Pueblo 10/5 4/30 (158 days)
Wyoming
Cheyenne 9/26 5/12 (137 days)
Casper 9/19 5/22 (120 days)
Gillette 9/22 5/18 (127 days)
Montana
Billings 9/27 5/8 (142 days)
Bozeman 9/19 5/26 (116 days)
Glendive 9/29 5/2 (150 days)
Great Falls 9/22 5/17 (128 days)
Helena 9/18 5/19 (122 days)
North Dakota
Bismarck 9/21 5/14 (130 days)
Fargo 9/27 5/10 (140 days)
Grand Forks 9/27 5/10 (140 days)
Minot 9/28 5/9 (142 days)
(sorted by frost free growing days)
Bozeman 9/19 5/26 (116 days)
Casper 9/19 5/22 (120 days)
Helena 9/18 5/19 (122 days)
Gillette 9/22 5/18 (127 days)
Great Falls 9/22 5/17 (128 days)
Bismarck 9/21 5/14 (130 days)
Cheyenne 9/26 5/12 (137 days)
Billings 9/27 5/8 (142 days)
Julesburg 9/24 5/7 (140 days)
Fargo 9/27 5/10 (140 days)
Grand Forks 9/27 5/10 (140 days)
Minot 9/28 5/9 (142 days)
Glendive 9/29 5/2 (150 days)
Denver 10/4 4/30 (157 days)
Pueblo 10/5 4/30 (158 days)
The short version is in near ice age climate conditions, Denver Metro Area would likely see a 35 day shorter growing season, and seed/crop choices would have to change to accommodate that by using seeds intended for North Dakota, southern Canada climate growing conditions.
Want to figure your own values for various locations?
https://www.farmersalmanac.com/average-frost-dates
https://nsidc.org/data/tools/doy_calendar.html
(subtract day number of last spring frost from first fall frost day number to calculate growing season)
Okay I followed a link posted in another thread about global cooling. Which led me to their forum.
http://forum.iceagefarmer.com/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=368
In there they make references to “sunchokes” in my almost 70 years I have never heard that name ever used so I did a bit of google searching and apparently this is colloquial name for Jerusalem Artichokes.
It apparent was an important native plant for native American Indians, and is native to the north east part of the country. The thing that caught my eye is this is a very aggressive invasive plant (short name – you can’t get rid of this shit) But for a survival plant that is not a bad thing, seems once you plant these things they will be there for ever or until the pigs come along and root every single scrap of tuber out of the ground.
Sounds like a survival seed to toss in the freezer for “that day”
https://commonsensehome.com/before-you-plant-sunchokes/
Well unfortunately it appears you cannot easily buy true seeds for Jerusalem Artichokes, all the listings are for seed tubers which are not suitable for long term frozen storage.
I did find these sources, – it appears that since the plant propagates so effectively by tubers it produces almost sterile seeds unless you grow it from seed and select the plants that produce seed through a couple generations.
http://www.kansasnativeplants.com/storedetail.php?plnt_id=388
Looks like you need cross pollination from different varieties to get it to set seed as the plants cannot self pollinate. The plant is a member of the sun flower family and may be able to be crossed with a sun flower to get it to set seed reliably (exercise for the starving student here)
http://www.omafra.gov.on.ca/english/crops/facts/94-077.htm
Sounds like you might create a JA patch in some piece of ground that is other wise difficult to crop and just let it go wild knowing it will also draw wild life. Some comments mention turning the chickens loose on the patch for an extended period of time is the only way to get rid of the stuff.
In the catagory of starch heavy crops that are easy to care for plant and havest try a Ruth Stout potato bed.
Ruth Stout potato bed
https://www.motherearthnews.com/organic-gardening/ruth-stout-hay-mulch-zmaz99fmzraw
I planted a few Sunchokes from the local store about 15 years ago and they quickly turned into a real pest. Once planted they are hard to get rid of. On the other hand the Gophers really like them. If you had a choice you would not want to eat them, but they would be better then nothing and once established there are always edible tubers in the bed.
I have seed for a semi wild blue potato that once planted will in time turn into a permanent bed. After nearly 20 years they come up every where because Gophers pack the small ones into their storage areas and soon they can show up anywhere. Also once planted, little ones escape harvest and sprout early the next spring. The only draw back is it takes several generations for tiny plants to evolve into the large plants that produce large tubers. You need at least a 2 oz “seed” piece to grow in one season large enough to produce 8 oz and larger tubers. Under the right conditions a potato bed would become permanent. Always with some amount of edibles in it…pg.
Planted a row of Sunchokes along the east wall just outside the bedroom. Just bought what was in the local grocery store and stuck ’em in the ground. Inside a year had a very nice “seasonal hedge” that would pop up a 6 to 8 foot tall sun curtain with nice yellow flowers on top ever sunny summer ;-)
Completely untended, they grow very well. Even dug up a tub of about 8 gallons of them one season, but they came back over the next year or two. Thinking this would be “an issue” if I ever wanted to get rid of them.
Then converted to “free range bunnies”…
While they would not gnaw through the mature thick bristly stems unless starving, and the little dears were never starving… when the next spring came and it was time to resprout from tubers, the little darlings proceeded to much every single sprout as it tried to make a run for the sky… In one season all the tubers were exhausted and I’ve had none since. Well, maybe none. Now, a few YEARS later, it looks like maybe a couple of weak sprouts are happening. Perhaps they made seeds that lay dormant for a while. Who knows. Or what’s sprouted might be some other thing with similar leaves. Not yet “invasive” again, I think they are needing time to get some tuber stock built.
FWIW, after settling in some new place, I would plan on making a tub of these. That prevents them from being invasive while keeping an inventory of tubers available at all times. FWIW, these are popular with diabetics as the inulin starch in them is diabetic friendly and doesn’t cause a glucose spike. They are also called “The windy root” as that same inulin tends to ferment to make a bit of gas in some folks…. Just sayin’… maybe OK in emergencies and a bit, um, “careful when you eat it” if making professional presentations in a day or two… ;-)
IMHO, one of those plants you WANT in a true famine food situation.
E.M.: “FWIW, these are popular with diabetics as the inulin starch in them is diabetic friendly and doesn’t cause a glucose spike.”
Thanks for the tip!
Right now, potatoes seem to be my friendliest carb. Wheat, not so much and corn in any form gives a strong spike. Rice is just one or two rearranged atoms away from pure sugar ;o)
Must be something about tubers that agrees with my body chemistry. I’ll have a whole baked potato with dinner and there’s little to no effect on my morning glucose reading, so I think I’ll try to get hold of some of those beasties to try out.
On reading up on potatoes one of the issues with them is you should not grow them on the same ground continuously due to pest problems, need to rotate them. One of the methods to deal with that and create an easy harvest crop is to plant them in large plastic tubs lined with the heavy duty contractor trash bags. You plant them in the same manner as that Ruth Stout planting where you plant the tuber in the very bottom of the tub and then heap up light compostable matter, on the surface. You can literally just reach into the pile of mulch and pluck out a potato for dinner. Then at the end of the year you pull that trash bag out of the tub and toss it all in a big compost pile and cycle it through the garden while putting your fresh potatoes in a new tub and bag setup in the same large plastic tub. This method keeps the potato pests from getting well enough developed to become a persistent problem.
Sounds like the exact same method could be used with the Jerusalem Artichoke to protect the rest of the garden from their invasive nature and still keep some seed stock tubers on hand without having to do battle with the green thing in the garden that wants to take over the world.
From the sound of it the potatoes are much preferred general food crop and as the Irish found one of the highest producing crops in existence for small farm plot gardening in tough conditions but the pests if they get a hold can destroy the entire crop.
The Jerusalem Artichoke on the other hand would be a good emergency volunteer crop you could plant on some out of the way piece of land that is other wise not usable and just let it do what it does as an emergency fall back crop if other crops fail. Due to its invasive nature perhaps plant them in a confined planter where they had a hard barrier to keep them from gradually taking over the garden.
I just did a quick search for sunchokes. I found this eye-opening page:
http://www.hungrycravings.com/2009/06/my-first-and-last-sunchoke.html
@H.R.:
You are most welcome.
FWIW, my R&D into foods & health has lead me to the conclusion that we are basically a “leaves & roots” herbivore that evolved into an omnivore on grass eaters / leaf eaters. (Cows, sheep, goats,…) and we are not all that well suited to either fruits or grains.
The high Omega-3 high protein / low carbs nearly no sugars diet seems to cure some kinds of diabetes, and very high levels of Vit-C with Niacin and meat (carnitene source) looks like it reverses / prevents cardio & atherosclerotic issues. Also in keeping with the “lots of leaves” pattern. I’ve noticed I’m less hungry and more energetic with a leaf component in meals. (Spinach, salads, Brussels sprouts, Choy, cabbage, kale, chard – especially chard ;-0 and more.)
Dropping wheat has been a significant help as has been leaving out breads. FWIW, sushi with rice in abundance doesn’t seem to be a problem for me. I know all the advice says it’s like sugar on a stick, but … Also brown rice seems to absorb much slower. So in fact rice with Asian theme meals is one of my few exceptions to the “no grains” regime I’m working into. (Adding buckwheat is another. I just bought a pound at Safeway Market so we’ll see what it does later).
@Larry:
Yup, you got it. I had some “naturalized potato beds” for a couple of years that did very nicely. I’d started with a purple potato from Whole Foods. It was a more wild type at heart. Then added some red potatoes from another “back to the earth” type grocer. Fine for about 3 to 4 years. Them some small white aphid like bugs started showing up around the potatoes. Don’t now what they were, and they didn’t seem to do much dramatic, but there were a LOT of them. Was trying to decide if I wanted to put some chemical goo on them, or how to recover my carefully selected Darwin’s Potatoes when I got a 2 year contract in Florida…
Well, after 2 summers of nobody giving the garden summer water, there were no spuds left and no bug problem either… Sigh. I did have these guys make fruit / seeds a few times and some of them ought to be in my seed freezer, so it wasn’t a total loss. FWIW the Jerusalem Artichokes didn’t mind summers on their own…
In a real EOTWAWKI event, I’d not only want a tub of J.A. for ‘seeding” out into my patch of lawn, but I’d likely run to the grocery store and buy 5 lbs of them, then pick some random places where they are week lots and stick one or two tubers in each… I’d wager in a year I’d have some crop available and until then pretty much every starving city denizen walking by would have no clue what they were.
There’s a canal not too far from me, and stuck in the dirt about high water line, these guys would eventually colonize miles of it. Nicely fenced off on each side to keep out most folks ;-) but I know a place with an opening ;-) 8-0
I suppose one might also need to sit out with a pellet gun and pot the occasional rabbit / squirrel / whatever that thinks they are edible, but I’d call that a feature …
Similarly, I’d likely buy a couple of pounds of buckwheat groats to scatter in a few select places. Since it can take over with an early start in spring, that’s the time to do it.
With luck, by the end of summer, there would be an acre or three of mixed buckwheat and sunchoke fields growing in random fallow places and with “mostly just me” knowing what they were. Add in the huge local growths of mustard greens and wild radishes on the hillsides, and it can make a fair number of meals… all for doing “nearly nothing”.
I like the idea of “invasive food”…
@Power Grab:
Individuals vary greatly in their gut biota, and the “wrong bugs” will go to town on inulin in sunchokes.
It is advisable to start small and find out how you do.
Plus everyone has their own immune response to things. I can’t have corn, for example, or it’s a long time on the seat in the smallest room in the house… but sunchokes did nearly nothing to me. YMMV.
@ EM: I agree. More and more, I’m getting the idea that the difference in people’s responses to food/allergens/pathogens is attributable to the makeup of their microbiota.
Poking around searching for info on crop failures and failed harvests, I ran across this resource which uses satellite technology and light spectrum reflected by vegetation to determine large scale stressed vegetation.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/92851/early-warnings-for-crop-failures
https://cropmonitor.org/
https://cropmonitor.org/index.php/2018/12/05/crop-monitor-for-early-warning-december-2018/
These items discuss hot dry weather conditions this last summer in Europe and their impact on harvests.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/20/crop-failure-and-bankruptcy-threaten-farmers-as-drought-grips-europe
Also northern Europe this year
https://www.luke.fi/en/news/crop-failures-expected/
https://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?rwsite=RPS_EN-PROD&rwobj=ReDisplay.Start.class&document=PROD0000000000474599
https://weather.com/news/news/2018-08-02-drought-crop-failures-europe-farmers
Not much discussion of these crop failure risks in American media having been saturated with All Trump all the Time.
Some current cold weather items:
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/07/asia/ice-fog-china-mohe-weather-intl-scli/index.html
Creative winter wear – making do with what you have.
WEATHER/ METEO WORLD
@StormchaserUKEU
Dec 2
More
WOW!! -50c recorded yesterday morning in Yakutia, Russia. Can you imagine those temperatures? Report: extreme weather! #severeweather #extremeweather #coldweather #FREEZE
Interesting item (probably mostly a marketing term) but when it comes to food famine situations one of the biggest problems to deal with is the delay of time to maturity and harvest for most food crops.
Sprouting is one way to gain food nutrition on a short time scale but a second method most folks do not consider is harvesting greens crops long before they mature as succulent early growth.
https://www.gardeners.com/how-to/grow-microgreens/7987.html
Just another tool in the food growing tool box.
Sprout some seeds and early harvest others to buy time until mature crops have a usable crop yield of mature produce
Which seeds work best? Salad greens, leafy vegetables, herbs and even edible flowers can be grown as microgreens, though some varieties are better suited than others. Beginners often start by growing one type of seed, such as broccoli, cauliflower, cabbage, mustard, chia, sunflower or buckwheat — among the easiest-to-grow varieties of microgreens — in a single container. (You can easily grow different seeds in several containers, and mix your microgreens after harvesting.)
Interesting video link by R. de Haan over on the Dec 13 2018 wood post which discusses how zonal weather flow affects the climate on the eastern seaboard as the cold intercontental air could strongly cool the eastern sea board if it plunges far enough south due to strong loopy jetstream flow.
R. de Haan says:
13 December 2018 at 9:22 pm
When my Dad was teaching me to garden, we would plant things like radishes and carrots on about 1 inch centers in a row. Then a couple of weeks after they sprouted, we would “thin the row” pulling out about every other one. Nope, didn’t toss ’em. We had tiny little radishes (often eaten in the row rinsed in a bucket of water) and “baby carrots”. Similarly the leafy plant thinnings went to a salad.
Little did I know I was learning a survival skill… It was just something they did on the Farm in Iowa during the Great Depression (and likely before). They didn’t buy much at the store. Some dry goods like flour and salt and coffee was about it. If it was meat or vegetables, it was from the farm; and they canned their own. The way it was explained to me was that after a long frozen winter on canned & root cellar food, that first bit of garden greens & roots was a treat. I’d wondered about “wasting” so much seed and then labor in thinning, and got the First Spring Radish story ;-) 25 days or sometimes less after last frost. Pre-soak the seed in warm water in the house before planting to get it jump started…
Yes, indeed, you can eat the sprouts. Still, be aware that new growth plants often have more poison per gram/ounce than mature food plants (think about why that will be). Where I live, that may be why the grandparents didn’t eat them, preferring to eat canned stuff from last year. Also, where I live, fruit often sets very early in the year, not late in the year. In other words, the flowers happen from late Feb through April. The fruit starts 30 to 45 days later. Late in the year we’re eating seeds and leaves, not fruit, that much.
Snow fall totals both in the last 72 hours and year to date (probably the water year which starts in October)
Water year
A 12-month time period used in hydrology
A water year (also called hydrological year, discharge year or flow year) is a term commonly used in hydrology to describe a time period of 12 months for which precipitation totals are measured. Its beginning differs from the calendar year because part of the precipitation that falls in late autumn and winter accumulates as snow and does not drain until the following spring or summer’s snowmelt.
Due to meteorological and geographical factors, the definition of the water years varies; the United States Geological Survey defines it as the period between October 1st of one year and September 30th of the next.
Looks like the depth key at the bottom represents 3.6 inch increments for each color step change.
Interesting visual showing national probability of 1″ of snow on the ground on Christmas.
It closely replicates the extent of maximum ice coverage during the Ice age east of the rockies.
In the rockies the snow appears to cover much of the high country which had a permanent ice shield and snow fields but never got deep enough for massive glaciers. Most of the glaciation in Rocky Mountain National park only extended a few miles from the catchment basin and cirque at the head of the glacier. Perhaps due to the rapid warming as the glacier descended to lower altitudes at a lapse rate of about 4 deg F per thousand feet, the toe of the glacier would be 8 or so deg F warmer than the head of the glacier.
The limiting factor for ice build up in the Rockies and northwest might be a combination of terrain effects and the maritime climate resulting in high liquid rain fall in the spring which greatly enhances snow melt.
I wonder of stream channel erosion in the northwest or other indicators show high spring water flow in what would otherwise be deep snow terrain. If we get early and persistent warm spring rainfall it can melt feet of snow in hours
An item from early this year on what a solar minimum might do to various areas.
If the above image is correct my part of the country (high plains east of the Rockies would see about .6 deg C drop in temp, and the Dakotas and the great lakes region about -.7 -.8 deg C.
Southern Florida would be mostly unaffected but northern Florida and the southern states -.2 -.35 deg C.
France would be similar to Colorado with about -.6 deg C and Germany and the northern east europen countries and northern Russia about -.7 -.8 deg C drop in temps from normal.
Additional discussion of how the high energy spectrum differs from visible light as the sun’s activity drops during a minimum and how it might affect heating of the upper atmosphere.
https://nextgrandminimum.com/
From
http://notrickszone.com/2017/04/10/a-swelling-volume-of-scientific-papers-now-forecasting-global-cooling-in-the-coming-decades/
Bah. No year 0 in the BC/AD system. -1 BC is the nominal year before Christ’s birth (actual year not known exactly and various postulated dates are controversial). 1 AD is the nominal year of His birth, akin to an accounting/numbering of the years of a monarch’s/emperor’s reign. The first year of my (post-uterine) life ends on the anniversary of same, since that’s when the 2nd year starts. Wait a minute … given the gross redefinition going on, did they change that? (semi-rhetorical)
@cdquarles: Year zero is the asymptote between -1 BC and 1 AD 😜
Well technically they got sloppy with captions, they legitimately used 0 for Before Present dates on one chart and mislabeled another as BC/AD or as has become trendy lately to shift the terminology to BCE.
Personally I would prefer that they used BP with a notation of when the “present” is such as:
BP(2018)
So you know exactly what year they are counting from.
Interesting article on trying to make sense of historical solar data.
https://www.space.com/42702-400-years-solar-observations.html
Image of historical solar data
I’ve adopted the habit of calling BCE “Before the Christian Era” just as a poke in the eye to the anti-Christian PC folks who screwed around with BC/AD… It usually makes them wince ;-)
Yeah, year 0 is an issue as they were new to the whole “starting arrays at 1 vs 0 debate” in the Before Computers era ;-)
I noticed that ramp up in UV from the ’50s to the 80s as I had a couple of very bad sunburns in the late 60s / early 70s before I learned to be a Sun Hermit… didn’t have that problem earlier, and now I can work outdoors for a couple of hours without risk…
It will be interesting to see what happens to dark skinned folk in high latitudes under very low UV levels. I suspect we may start hearing about Rickets again (and more Seasonal Affective Disorder)
Roman numerals have no zero,
@ E.M. and all regarding Seasonal Affective Disorders (SAD): Because I’ve been in manufacturing, where I have been in an office or out on shop floors with barely perceptible outdoor light, if any, I would occasionally get hit with SAD, but not every year.
I’d just call my Dr.and she would say “SAD?” when I called, and put me on a low dose of Citalopram, if “Yes.” She’d prescribe Citalopram and let me taper off (don’t quit abruptly) when I was out of the woods. For reasons unknown, I didn’t call in every year for a Citalopram Rx.
I think Larry L. brought up that he was hit with SAD here and there and fought it off with light in specific light wave spectrums. I can’t recall in detail if even it was SAD he was referring to, but I do know he was toying with lighting. (Larry? You can chime in any time, now 😜)
Anyhow, I know light has a discernible effect on mood, sleep, etc., but I’ve not explored the specific spectrums that might be involved, nor have I looked into which spectrums affect me.
/help, but not much help, really
@ E.M. and all regarding Seasonal Affective Disorders (SAD): Because I’ve been in manufacturing, where I have been in an office or out on shop floors with barely perceptible outdoor light, if any, I would occasionally get hit with SAD, but not every year.
I’d just call my Dr.and she would say “SAD?”
when I called, and put me on a low dose of Citalopram, if “Yes.” She’d prescribe Citalopram and let me taper off (don’t quit abruptly!) when I was out of the woods. For reasons unknown, I didn’t call in every year for a Citalopram Rx.
I think Larry L. brought up that he was hit with SAD here and there and fought it off with light in specific light wave spectrums. I can’t recall in detail if even it was SAD he was referring to, but I do know he was toying with lighting. (Larry? You can chime in any time, now 😜)
Anyhow, I know light has a discernible effect on mood, sleep, etc., but I’ve not explored the specific spectrums that might be involved, nor have I looked into which spectrums affect me.
/help, but not much help, really
Low UV leads to low Vit-D and SAD.
The spouse has it and so we have “Lizard Lamp” she uses in the mornings. I did a test with it to determine safe time / distance (sat with my back to it at about 1.5 feet for 20 minutes and got slightly reddened not quite burn) that set the guidline at no more than 20 minutes no less than 3 feet away. Typically more like 15 minutes at 4 feet.
It has worked perfectly for a couple of decades now.
A few years back when the Son moved to Chicago, he had the same issue. The same fix works for him too. I just went to Petco and picked one up for about $20. For the Son, he ordered one from Amazon for about $12.
It is helpful to not look at it, or have lenses that stop UV. As wattage varies, use care to start with low exposures… FWIW, this is not an approved use, I’m no doctor, don’t do it… (Any other liability I need to disclaim?… Oh, yeah, the family did this all on their own, I’m just gossiping about it…)
Hmmmm… That’s the first double post on WordDepressed I’ve had that I can ever recall.
Anyhow… E.M.: “(Any other liability I need to disclaim?… Oh, yeah, the family did this all on their own, I’m just gossiping about it…)”
In the immortal words of Bart Simpson, “I didn’t do it. Nobody saw me do it. There’s no way you can prove I did it.” 😆🤣
I think Larry L. brought up that he was hit with SAD here and there and fought it off with light in specific light wave spectrums. I can’t recall in detail if even it was SAD he was referring to, but I do know he was toying with lighting. (Larry? You can chime in any time, now
I was just planning on posting on this, so good time as any.
I think I have found the solution that suites me, I have had the last week off (vacation time) and got to experiment a bit over the last month or so.
Background: in the past, starting just about Thanksgiving time I found myself starting to go into hibernation mode over the winter months. I work night shift in a computer environment and am exposed to very little sun this time of year and work odd hours so sometimes have to stay up very late when we are doing battle with IT gremlins or major roll outs of new hardware or code.
In the past I found confirmation that bright light about 30 minutes after you wake up was very effective to set the human body clock. (setting your wake up time for your daily cycle) That is the primary trigger for your main biorhythms but not all of them.
I have for several years used bright light therapy in the winter months to help keep my body clock in sync so I at least want to wake up at the right time, but in the depths of the winter it was not quite enough. I would wake up more or less on time but had little energy and was quite happy to sleep 18 hours a day if I could.
A few months back I stumbled across some additional info on light colors and the effects of red and blue light.
Part of the process of making you wakeful, is the suppression of Melatonin production by the activity of blue light. If you do not get enough exposure to blue spectrum during the day/days, you slowly build of melatonin and just want to sleep.
https://www.thesleepdoctor.com/2017/11/06/latest-blue-light-sleep/
https://www.health.harvard.edu/staying-healthy/blue-light-has-a-dark-side
Even dim light can interfere with a person’s circadian rhythm and melatonin secretion. A mere eight lux—a level of brightness exceeded by most table lamps and about twice that of a night light—has an effect, notes Stephen Lockley, a Harvard sleep researcher. Light at night is part of the reason so many people don’t get enough sleep, says Lockley, and researchers have linked short sleep to increased risk for depression, as well as diabetes and cardiovascular problems.
Effects of blue light and sleep
While light of any kind can suppress the secretion of melatonin, blue light at night does so more powerfully. Harvard researchers and their colleagues conducted an experiment comparing the effects of 6.5 hours of exposure to blue light to exposure to green light of comparable brightness. The blue light suppressed melatonin for about twice as long as the green light and shifted circadian rhythms by twice as much (3 hours vs. 1.5 hours).
https://www.hindawi.com/journals/ije/2010/829351/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3499892/
So – bottom line, the body expects significant red spectrum light in the evening before going to bed (sun set lighting) and expects bright light rich in the blue spectrum during mid day and mid morning.
I have adopted a light management strategy as follows:
In my computer room, where I spend my first hours after waking up and most of my time when home, I have 4 different lights I regularly use.
I have a 3 watt red LED bulb that I leave on 24×7 in the computer room so I do not have to turn on any other lights at night if I have to walk in and check on something. (call this the red night light RNL)
A small low wattage desk lamp (gooseneck style near the computer ) It has a 300 lumen 2700K color temperature 4 watt LED bulb in it. It is pointed to shine on the desk top near the computer keyboard just outside my normal field of view on the computer. It provides ample general lighting to see the keyboard etc. but is not dazzling bright so provides low key lighting in the evening when it is the primary light source. (call this on the evening low key light ELKL)
[ note for emergency light needs in a loss of power situation this is usable light from only 4-7 watts of power, plenty to get by in a black out on a small inverter and battery system }
I have a day light bulb floor lamp torchiere style with a bright white daylight bulb that I turn on during the daytime and early evening. It has two 27 Watt daylight CFL bulbs of 5000k color temp in it.
Daylight sky blue panel
And last but not least I have a blue LED grow light panel, which is situated to point toward the ceiling to provide indirect blue lighting. With a 14 Watts array of 225 Blue LED lights (465 nm wavelength);
(red night light RNL)
( evening low key light ELKL)
( Daylight CFL floor lamp 2 each)
(Daylight sky blue panel)
The last week was the first time I have had the full strategy implemented during the winter months when am normally feeling semi comatose all day long and never quite fully awake. Over the weekend I got engrossed in a photography project sat down at the computer desk near 9:00 am and turned on all the lights and opened the blinds on the north facing window (it was a bright sunny day clear blue sky). I closed the window blinds sometime in the early afternoon, and kept working. I glanced over at the clock and realized it was almost 4:00 am the next morning and I was still wide awake. (I had left the blue panel light and the floor lamp on all evening)
That was my first experimental proof that the system does what I want it to do. Since that morning I have settled on turning off the blue panel light around the time of summer time sun set around 6:00 pm local.
I also have blue light filter screen panel I put on the computer monitor screen in the evening to kill the worst of the blue light from the screen.
For the first time in years after following this pattern for some time, I feel fully awake during the day, no depressed and want to sleep impulses or can’t get out of bed in the morning feelings.
I will continue to tinker with it, but I think I have a totally effective system that just needs a bit of fine tuning.
Pro tip. Get up at same time every morning, turn on bright room lights right after you wake up, including the blue light. Keep full light levels all day until late afternoon then extinguish first the blue environmental “skylight” about the time you would start to notice the red case of pre-sun set light outside in the summer, then an hour or so later, turn off all the lights except the red night light and the low key light until you go to bed.
@Larry L.: I was vaguely recalling your battle with working-off-shift sleep problems. You’ve written about your light color tests before.
I just couldn’t recall if you’d mentioned any SAD symptoms, which you have hinted at in this comment SAD doesn’t seem to be your primary concern.
BTW, I take a 10 mg capsule of melatonin every night bout 1/2 hour before nighty-night time. had trouble shutting down my brain after the usual machine gun attack on my senses and problem solving abilities at work all day, every day. The melatonin worked a treat.
It just occurred to me that maybe I should back off or eliminate the melatonin. I really don’t have that much pressing on my mind since I retired, so maybe I should taper off the melatonin.
That said, I was up at 4:30 am this morning and rarin’ to go, as I have been for the last 40 years. Maybe it’s just an ingrained thing. (Fer cryin’ out loud, the dogs think I’m up too early and loony toons to boot. They want to sleep in! The nocturnal cat likes the company. 😜)
Yes I definitely have SAD syndrome, (when i first heard about it the light bulb went on and I at least understood what was going on). It has gotten worse as I age, and my activity level has reduced so I get outside less, for vigorous activity (exercise that requires elevated heart rate also is one of the body clock triggers – going for a short run or other vigorous activity in the morning helps to tell the body it is day time even if the light cycle does not agree).
SAD is also aggravated by a work environment which makes it almost impossible to keep a consistent wake / sleep schedule. The two combine at times to the point it is almost impossible to get out of bed and I feel like I am in a daze all day, or I am wide awake at 03:00 and can’t sleep no matter what I do, until time to go to work. (if you watch my posting times you will see it is not uncommon for me to post here at 03:00 -04:30 in the morning even though my normal bed time is somewhere between midnight and 2:00 am).
Sometimes for work, I have to work very long hours – sometimes going to bed a 04:30 just as the first hint of dawn is showing, other times I am responsible for baby sitting certain computer jobs and end up having to get up every 2 hours all night long for 10 minutes at a time to check on things and start new backup tapes or reset job limits after tasks finished which require they be set to zero to prevent contention.
Other times I work 18 hours straight and then add on a few of those late night wake ups to check on things or when my phone blows up late at night because some process went toes up and we have 5000 head bangers on the monitor that died with errors, and I have to call the folks who need to fix that problem and watch until they are done then get things back running normally.
In a sense my job is like a clean up pitcher if things are going smoothly not much happens but when everything goes south it is your problem until everything is back to normal.
The problem is that the human body clock affects several different hormone cycles, and they each sync at different rates. Some return to normal after only a couple days of broken schedule (jet lag) but especially shift workers can get those hormone cycles so screwed up it takes 6+ months of stable schedule to get things back in sync.
By setting a consistent light schedule and by that means forcing a consistent sleep wake cycle ( or knowing how to push it back into sync by manipulating the light schedule) has been a huge help.
I have never been an early riser, being a late night sort and late sleeper. I can force myself to get up early as i did in the military but it is painful. The average person has a free running body clock of just a bit over 24 hours. If they are deprived of all outside day night clues, they wake and sleep on a cycle about 26-27 hours long, my free running clock is closer to 30 hours, I have no problem staying up for 20+ hours at a time but if I do that I need a sleep cycle of 10-12 hours to stay healthy.
I can go short night sleep 4 hours or so for several days but need a battery recharge day shortly after to get back in balance.
Getting up rested and refreshed and raring to go in time to see the sun rise is exceedingly rare for me, probably happened fewer than 100 times in my entire life time. Being wide awake at 3:00 in the morning and having a list of things I want to do but cannot because they would wake up the neighbors is very common. Likewise finally getting to sleep and waking up at almost noon and the opportunity to do something I wanted to do in the morning is complete impossible is very common.
@Larry:
Similar thing here. The blue color of screens tends to make bio-clocks run longer (blue light resets to morning …) I was in a NASA study of social isolation and circadian rhythms. They found morning people have a fast clock (natural 23 hour days…) and night people have a slow clock ( I’m about a 25 hour free run day). My body temp reaches peak about 4 PM. Morning people peak about 10 am (starts rising at 3 to 4 AM!) and fade in the afternoon being “past their peak”.
So the spouse often is waking up at 4 am when I’m headed to bed ;-)
As a long day person you will have an easier time staying up until you are “on cycle” and holding it and will not do well trying to force yourself to sleep “early”.
Foods can change it too. High carbs and such can help get to sleep. Lots of protein to stay awake. I once made the mistake of pancakes and syrup after an all-nighter … I was out, sound asleep, against my will inside an hour despite being expected back at the job site. After that it’s been protein only – so eggs & ham but skip the pancakes – if I need to stay awake… Sometimes when I’m up late and want to sleep, I’ll do a bowl of sugary breakfast cereal in warm milk…
Yes I have found it much easier to run a long day to get back on cycle, than to go the other way. Folks have the same experience with jet lag. Traveling west is much easier to cope with than traveling east for the same reason. I also have seen the same thing with carbs and protein, I often have a slice of bread with honey on it and half glass of milk to go to sleep and a couple hard boiled eggs to stay awake.
@Larry,
Yes, it is simpler to reset by ‘pulling an all-nighter’ for most folk. I am the ‘morning’ person, as is my uncle (mom’s younger brother). The sun will wake me up. The computer screen, though, won’t. I guess that my ‘its sunup’ meter has a relatively high trigger. My sister, though, does seem to have the longer clock. My nephew does, too. They’ll cycle through the day, whereas I won’t. If I get ‘out of bounds’ like that, all I have to do is stay up 36 or so hours.
For some folk, turkey and milk puts them to sleep (tryptophan, maybe). For me, food intake doesn’t matter much; unless caffeine is involved. Trouble with caffeine, for me, is that its half-life is too short and it induces receptor down-regulation quickly.
The only time I can be sure of waking up energetic and ready to go early in the day is if I am camping in a tent, where I experience the full early morning light cycle of deep darkness, gradual dawn then the early pre-sunrise light, Then I will wake up and turn out of the tent just as the sun is breaking the horizon.
If deprived of that 1-2 hour progression of increasing light and transition of light color, especially if it is a dark over cast day, my body simply refuses to wake up in the dead of the winter when I never have significant sun light exposure in the day time.
I have to go eat lunch in the car and park it so I am in full sunlight to really wake up and feel alert for the day.
Interesting color temperature chart that you can use to simulate various light conditions if you have the means to vary color temperature of the lighting.
https://www.geofflawrence.com/color_temperature.html
https://www.photopills.com/articles/understanding-golden-hour-blue-hour-and-twilights
Note here in the above link it talks about the different color temperatures as the sun rises, it shifts through a blue phase into a golden phase then the sun rise phase.
Based on my observations I suspect I need that blue hour twilight phase to “turn on” the wake up process because in a fully natural setting like camping I wake up just at the end of that blue hour.
IIRC the “magic color” is 440 nm. From a random site:
So you need that deep blue / indego to hit the suprachasmatic nexus…
Click to access CaseforCircadianLightinginFederalBuildings.pdf
You might benefit from an LED bulb on a timer in the morning, then an incandescent on a dimmer as time to go to bed approaches. You can still get Halogen and PAR (parabolic aluminized reflector – flood or spot- incandescents) Most LED bulbs use a “very blue” base LED and phosphors to down shift some of it to the yellow, red, green range making more or less white, but with way too much 440 nm to 500ish nm light – so perpetual morning “wakey up time” reset… and insomnia for some of us…
That is why I picked out that blue LED light panel at ( 465 nanometers ) it is just about ideal to trigger that “wake up it’s morning response”.
I have some timers just have not been motivated to set them up, but for the blue panel I might want to do first with a turn off time near 6:00 pm.
At this point still experimenting so manual on and off is still convenient.
Like you I still have a whole box full of the old standard incandescent bulbs for those times when you really want an incandescent.
@Larry:
Unfortunately? Or maybe “by design” ;-) I’m not using my stock of IC bulbs at anywhere near the rate I’d expected. Mostly for 3 reasons:
1) Most of my IC bulbs are on dimmers. Even a 10% dimming can make an IC bulb last many many years. At 20%+ dimmed it starts to be measured in decades to lifetimes….
2) My “manufacture bulbs from 3 way lamps” has met with great success. I run one on 50 W in the bedroom for ambient light. We kick it up to 100 W or 150 W for cleaning day ;-) When the 50 W filament wears out, it becomes a very nice 100 W bulb. The 30-70-100 W becomes a 70W for those places where you want less. Put that 100 W bulb on a dimmer and you are now set for another decade in one room or another. (Bath, bedroom, office, spouses craft room all on dimmers). IF you use a 50-150-200 or 50-200-250 you end up with a 150 or 200 W bulb that dimmed to 100 W eq. brightness lasts longer than I will… FWIW I have a few 200 W “industrial” bulbs in storage for the “end of stored supply” event. Run on dimmers at 1/2 light output they will last functionally forever.. for all practical purposes. You can still buy 200 W and 300 W incandescent bulbs. Not as efficient run at 1/2 power, but not going to burn out.
3) As long as halogens are available new at the HW store, I use them in the non–dimmer places. Halogens don’t handle dimming as well as regular IC bulbs. The hot halogen gas scrubs the W from the envelope and redeposits it on the hot filament where WI / WCl / WBr break down at the extreme heat. Run it too cool and both the scavenge and the redeposit get screwed up. The 1000 hr bulbs can be extended to 3000 hours with mild dimming ( the 3000 hr bulbs are already in that range – so you can use one to calibrate your dimmer by color temp for the others ;-) Occasionally run any dimmed halogen bulb at full power for 5 to 10 minutes to assure the scavenge / redeposit cycle is run. I have these in kitchen and some of the lights in the living room.
Sidebar 4): I use CFL bulbs in places where they will work. One lamp in the LR (3 way CFL with built in switch in a one way lamp). One in a 3 way lamp in spouses craft room (since it never gets used enough to “manufacture” an IC bulb anyway and I’m already making enough ;-) of the “screws into 3 way lamp” type. Then several in garage and yard lights along with the LEDs. Oh, and the “flying saucer on a rope” over the Dining Table has 2 x CFL and 1 x Halogen. The Halogen avoids the “Green Eggs & Ham” effect of cheap CFLs while they provide cheap night light – the twist nob on the lamp choosing 1, 2 or all three bulbs. 1 Halogen. 2 CFL, or all three.
So the stuff on “almost all the time” tends to exterior CFL / LED or interior CFL. The stuff run a lot for good CRI / color – or pleasant light, tend to be Halogens that last a year or 3 anyway. Then all the “on and off a lot” rooms are a mix of 3-way bulb making and dimmers… so not much bulb death.
At one time I was running 3 lamps “manufacturing bulbs”… but it made too many ;-) Then the spouse replaced one of them with a 1-way so I bought the CFL with a 3 way switch built in ;-)
I know, more than anyone ever wanted to know about my lightbulbs ;-) But it illustrates how to get maximum life from an inventory of IC bulbs ;-) I’ve got about 1 cu-meter of bulbs. It’s about 80% IC. I also stocked up on “curly bulbs” CFLs when they were on subsidy for 50 ¢ each and I knew that wasn’t going to last … so my CFL needs are likely met for life too ;-) Assuming they don’t fail in storage… hopefully no electrolytic caps in them ;-)
hopefully no electrolytic caps in them
You could always put them in a light socket and power them up for a couple minutes every 5 years ;)
I almost never use the IC bulbs myself, I don’t mind the off color CFL for just general lighting but I wanted the IC
a) because they said I couldn’t have any
b) they make nice resistance heaters in certain applications (remember the little toy ovens girls got for Christmas that were heated by a high watt light bulb?
For food drying or other low temp needs they can be used as heaters (or dummy loads for testing).
A 60w bulb in a drop light makes a dandy under the hood heater for really cold weather, just lay it on the intake manifold and make sure it is not in direct contact with any hoses or wire insulation. Close the hood without pinching the power cord and toss an old blanket across the hood. Even in -30 deg F temps the car will start right up in the morning, and the starter motor and battery will last a lot longer.
Also nice for instant on cold weather use in places like garages.
For a few years I did seasonal bulb changes. IC in for winter, CFLin for summer. Optimizing for heat and light, plus cleaning dust and bugs out of fixtures. Now I just clean them once a year… Have one CFL yard light that takes forever to get bright in winter…
Easy Bake oven?
We would use them to hatch chicks too…
I put a 50 W on a dimmer in a box w a towel to make yogurt. Just adjust dimmer for about 105 F on a thermometer…
I have also used them as a hand warmer in the garage… and to help finishes dry, though floods a bit better.
In my office w door closed it gets cold in winter, so they are dual heat and light. I can run up to 300 W if needed… but usually 200 is enough and sometimes 100 with both monitors on…
People forget that when heat is a useful side benefit, incandescent lights are 100% efficient, as all the energy is converted to a useful form.
Larry, energy converted to a useful form. Not e the name of the game these days …drack!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4255010/Idiocy-replacing-coal-power-stations-burning-wood.html
@Beththeserf:
Drax GAKx!!
Such evil…
I’ll plow this plowed ground and beat this dead horse yet some more. Maybe somebody will step up and ‘splain scientifically how/why I’ve got it wrong – or not.
Radiative Green House Effect theory (TFK_bams09):
1) 288 K – 255 K = 33 C warmer with atmosphere, RGHE’s only reason to even exist – rubbish. (simple observation & Nikolov & Kramm)
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6465958633963347968
But how, exactly is that supposed to work?
2) There is a 100% efficient 333 W/m^2 up/down/”back” perpetual energy loop consisting of the 0.04% GHG’s that absorbs/”traps”/re-emits per QED simultaneously warming BOTH the atmosphere and the surface. – Good trick, too bad it’s not real, thermodynamic nonsense.
And where does this magical GHG energy loop first get that energy?
3) From the 16 C/289 K/396 W/m^2 S-B 1.0 ε ideal theoretical BB radiation upwelling from the surface. – which due to the non-radiative heat transfer participation of the atmospheric molecules is simply not possible.
No BB upwelling & no GHG energy loop & no 33 C warmer means no RGHE theory & no CO2 warming & no man caused climate change.
Got science? Bring it!!
Nick Schroeder, BSME CU ‘78, CO PE 22774
Experiments in the classical style:
https://principia-scientific.org/debunking-the-greenhouse-gas-theory-with-a-boiling-water-pot/
No 33 C and K-T
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6466699347852611584
@Nick:
I think you have it basically right.
I’d just add that the reason there is a troposphere is that it is NOT radiative, so it resorts to convective air flow based heat transfer (enhanced by fluid flow of evaporation at the surface and condensation at the top making all our rain and snow as a heat pipe). Then in the Stratosphere, CO2 is a radiative gas to space. Any “down welling” runs into that water cap of clouds and tropopause water so doesn’t get anywhere, while that going “up” leaves.
and this graph referenced in the second link:
You can easily see water dominating below the tropopause as a convective end point to heat transfer, CO2 doing nothing below the tropopause, and “up high” it is all about CO2 radiating to space.
Any assertion that CO2 “warms” the planet is flat out bogus. It’s the radiator to space. Water is the convector / condenser transport to the Stratosphere. It is changes in UV warming of the stratosphere and sun driven changes of water evaporation that drive the system.
Hmmm…. Thinking anew about that graph, O3 Ozone is also a big radiator to space…
We already know O3 production and destruction vary with solar UV… Could that be the mechanism by which Solar UV variation drives warming / cooling cycles? Direct changes of O3 concentration and altitude? Hmmmm….