There has been a shift in the weather toward the Little Ice Age pattern, with big storms, late heavy rains, flooding, and even snow into the start of Summer / late Spring at higher elevations. Not just in the USA, but all over. Europe, China, Russia, Australia, New Zealand, South America.
This has resulted in lots of crop losses, very late planting (or even not planting), and price rises.
Some long time ago I did a story about hay. Most city folks don’t think much about hay, but it is what gets your grazing farm animals through the winter and onto fresh spring pasture. Horses and cows are called “hay burners” for a reason. Whilie lately we have gone to a more exotic collection of feeds, including DDG Distillers Dried Grains from making all that ethanol for diluting gasoline, hay is still an essential. We entered this year with low hay inventory due to low rainfall in the northern hay producing regions in prior years. Then this year has been so wet that transporting and harvesting hay have been problematic. Finally, a very late start to spring pasture growth means feeding hay longer… when none can be had… That’s a problem.
So hay prices have shot way up. Folks who feed hay to cattle are selling the animals to meat packers early (so buy and freeze some beef now…) while folks who have horses are paying any price to keep them fed and bedded (much hay is needed to keep barns functioning even if not eaten).
It is highly likely there will be a big spike in meat prices after the effects work through the system. Now add in that China is having a terrible time with swine flu and are trying to buy up replacement pork / pigs from all over the world (so pork prices will not be low any time soon) and chickens need “chicken feed” that is largely corn and soybeans (both late to plant so likely a low yield) and you can see where this is going.
Here’s where we were 3 months ago. It has not gotten better.
https://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/hay-shortage-grows-prices-nearly-double
(All CAPS theirs)
HAY SHORTAGE GROWS, PRICES NEARLY DOUBLE
HAY BUYERS NEED WINTER TO GET OVER SOON.
By Mike McGinnis
4/18/2018DES MOINES, Iowa — As winter storms continue to pound the upper Midwest, cow/calf and feedlot operators are running out of hay to feed their animals.
With snow stunting the growth of spring pastures, the depth of the hay shortage that started in the drought-stricken fall of 2017 has been exacerbated.
Usually cattle farmers can kick animals out to pasture May 1, but that will not be the case this year.
So, the need for hay is extending further into spring than normal.
Paul McGill, owner of Rock Valley, Iowa, Hay Auction Co., sells hay to buyers in Iowa and Minnesota. “We need winter to get over soon,” McGill says.
Well the rains and flooding have continued across the Midwest. Some parts have dried enough they can likely start to pasture the animals, but a lot of the land is still flooded or so soggy a cow will get stuck. In others, it may be dry but a couple of months of growth has been lost. It isn’t over even when the water dries off.
HAY PRICES SURGE
Of course, this a supply/demand story right now for the hay market.Large round bales of hay are selling for $75 to $90 per ton higher than a year ago, McGill says.
Specifically, alfalfa-grade hay bales are priced between $140 and $165 per ton, while grass, midquality hay bales are selling for $125 to $150 per ton.
This week’s blizzard cut McGill’s northwest Iowa auction company’s sales of hay that it does have to offer.
“On Monday, we moved only 14 semi-loads of large bales vs. 92 semi-loads a week ago. Since the first of the year, we have seen sales below average,” McGill says.
There is some hay around, it is just hard to get to it, he says.
What’s the government got to say?
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/sf_gr315.txt
Randomely taking the first report from South Dakota (that ought not to be flooded by the Mississippi…) It looks like they have started getting hay loads with 30, double 2 weeks ago and much more than last year. Alfalfa is now $165 / ton for new crop when it was $140 – $165 just a couple of months ago. The mid-grade “good” quality “grass” is at $145 when it had been $125-$150. That alfalfa in “fair” condition is available at $115 +/- so somebody will be eating crummy hay…
I’ve bolded a couple of places where they say some kinds of cheaper hay are now “scarce”. One of them says “scare” and I’ve got to wonder if that’s a typo or a slip of the emotional state… Also note these prices are FOB SD so trucking it to Iowa is going to cost… (Iowa gets a lot of hay from South Dakota)
SF_GR315
Sioux Falls, SD Tues June 11, 2019 USDA-SD Dept of Ag Market NewsCorsica, SD Hay and Straw Auction for Monday, June 10, 2019
Receipts: 30 Loads Two Weeks Ago: 15 Loads Last Year: 13 Loads
All prices dollars per ton FOB Corsica, SD.
One load Small Squares equals approximately 5 tons; Large Squares and
Large Rounds range from 10-25 tons per load.Alfalfa: Premium: Large Rounds, 1 load 162.50 (New Crop). Good:
Small Squares, 1 load $5.10/bale (New Crop); Large Rounds, 3 loads
122.50-127.50 (1 load 127.50 New Crop 10-15% Moisture). Fair: Large
Rounds, 8 loads 112.50-117.50. Utility: Large Rounds, 1 load 102.50.Grass: Good: Large Rounds, 1 load 145.00. Fair: Large Rounds, 8
loads 110.00-127.50. Utility: Large Rounds, 3 loads 97.50-102.50.
Straw: Scare.Millet Hay: Large Rounds, 1 load 87.50-90.00.
Corn Stalks: Scarce.Alfalfa guidelines (domestic livestock use and not more than 10 pct grass) Quality ADF NDF RFV TDN-100 pct TDN-90 pct CP Supreme <27 185 >62 >55.9 >22 Premium 27-29 34-36 170-185 60.5-62 54.5-55.9 20-22 Good 29-32 36-40 150-170 58-60 52.5-54.5 18-20 Fair 32-35 40-44 130-150 56-58 50.5-52.5 16-18 Utility >35 >44 <130 <56 <50.5 <16RFV calculated using the WI/MN formula. TDN calculated using the
western formula. Quantitative factors are approximate and many factors
can affect feeding value. Values based on 100 pct dry matter.Quantitative factors are approximate, and many factors can affect
feeding value. Values based on 100 pct dry matter. End usage may
influence hay price or value more than testing results.Grass Hay guidelines Quality Crude Protein Percent Premium Over 13 Good 9-13 Fair 5-9 Utility Under 5Source: USDA-SD Dept of Ag Market News Service, Sioux Falls, SD
605-372-8350
http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/SF_GR315.txt
http://www.ams.usda.gov/lpsmarketnewspage0837c rmk
Then Ice Age Farmer has a couple of videos on corn, soybean, fruit and more. He can be a bit prone to “talking things up” but has a good collection of sources. And yes, I do think you ought to have some kind of food storage system (covered in depth in prior articles here: https://chiefio.wordpress.com/category/emergency-preparation-and-risks/ on “Dry Canning” and Food Storage in jars).
I do not think we’ll see much more than a meat price hike and some expensive farm feed. Since about 1/3 of corn goes into making gasoline that’s not as effective (hey, I’ve measured my mpg loss…) we can make up for a 1/3 loss of the corn crop by just putting the ‘ethanol mandate’ on hold for a while. Premium gas will likely take a price hike as a lot of ethanol is used to blend it for higher octane (with cheaper gasoline base). Still, if folks are stupid, and our law givers are, they will do nothing but talk and the Dimocrats will moan about “Global Warming”… so better to take care of it yourself.
I do believe in growing some percentage of your own food, if at all possible. I’ll have an update on my first hydroponic bed later. In just 2 weeks I have one lettuce transplant about ready for the first harvest! Others about 2 weeks behind it.
Here’s a couple of his videos:
Flooding in the USA and grain:
Fruit in China (& more):
Musings from the Chiefio 
Chiefio,
I grew up on a wheat and cattle farm in North Dakota. I don’t think anyone would use hay for animal bedding. Most bedding material will be derived from wheat, oat, or barley straw. Although straw can be a supplement to hay (cattle will eat it if they don’t get enough hay) it is not very nutritious. But it is cheap.
Sorry for the quibble on an excellent post.
GF
Well maybe the wheat, barley, canola, hay growers & beef exporters will cash in big time from November through 2020.
maybe our apple & pear growers will also be able to get good prices for their exported fruit.
Here in Oz the drought has ended in most of the country so none of the grain growers are dry sowing. And it is not too late to sow a crop yet though soil temps are falling quickly.
And if we are lucky all the Chinese & Vietnamese attempting to bring pork for food, into Australia will be discovered and sent back where they come from, for breaching our quarantine laws, thus preventing an outbreak of tis new pig virus from Africa.
@G. Franke:
It’s a fair quibble. While I try to keep my “farm jargon” intact, I’ve lived too long in the city. At one time I’d have been a stickler for using alfalfa hay, grass hay, straw, etc. etc. as distinct terms. I’ve bought alfalfa hay, timothy hay, oat straw… and used it. But sadly due to too many years living with city people, I’ve become corrupted to use “hay” for “any dry plant stuff you give animals” (roughly). I think it was from buying “hay” that was really straw for bunnies at the pet store… After a while you forget the precise use and just use the words folks around you are using. My apologies.
That said, once you are “off the farm”, there are folks who use real hay for bedding. I did it with bunnies just because they really like the timothy ;-) and the amount is so small cost doesn’t matter. I’ve seen horse owners do it as they had some coarse hay of unknown type and needed quick bedding and didn’t care about the cost (living in $Million homes and all…). I remember thinking they were being sloppy, but that was 30 years ago.
But being from an Ag School, that’s no excuse… I know better…
Rice straw, Oat straw, Alfalfa hay, timothy hay, corn stalks, silage…. all different and different uses.
LOL! Anybody else here ever hauled 7 bales of hay in a Toyota Cressida? More than once?
So what happened to “Glow Bull Warming”?
@ Power Grab:
I loaded four bales in a Hyundai Accent- 12 bales= three trips. Also, we used wood shavings in the stalls- hay is food.
@Power Grab – You win! By default, though. I’ve never owned a Cressida. If I ever acquire one, I’m going to shoot for 8 bales now that I know what I have to beat ;o)
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.
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It seems I’m getting hit with the same systems that are hitting cdquarles, though our highs and lows are about 10 (F) +/- lower. I’m getting close to posting pictures of the pole beans on the cattle panel arch. One plant is up about 5′ and two others are at about a 2.5′-3′ climb. They haven’t filled out yet so the cattle panel is a little bare. I’ll post pics on the latest W.O.O.D. when the garden has caught up a little.
We are getting 2-3 cloudy days, 2-3 days of rain, and then 1 or maybe two days of clear skies and sunshine before we return to the cloudy then rainy cycle. The asparagus and rhubarb are lovin’ this weather. Best ever year for both. The beans, tomatoes, and summer squash… not so much, but it looks like they will pull through OK.
Interesting report from Electroverse about the Midlands of the UK having a very cool June..They have records for 350 years and this is the 17th coolest one in the record….
Immediate impact on crops there !
https://electroverse.net/central-england-on-course-for-its-17th-coldest-june-in-360-years-of-records-crop-concerns-grand-solar-minimum/
@Bill in Oz:
That’s an especially interesting one… It might indicated the Gulf Stream is slowing a lot.
One of the big supposed mechanisms is that as the heat deposited into the oceans drops off, the major ocean currents become less active. The idea being it isn’t just “cold and salty sinking” at the poles that drives them, but also “warmed and rising” at the equator. Get more “prompt evaporation” making rain (via more IR / red) and less “heat at depth” via deep UV / blue from the sun, the cycle slows down.
That would manifest strongly in places like the UK that are dependent on warm water arrival to avoid being frozen.
There is evidence (pond sediments, pollen, etc.) that Florida gets more “summer like” weather even in winter when it is frozen in the UK. It looks like the Gulf Stream slows and the heat backs up a bit near Florida keeping warmer water around it in winter. Also, a warmer Gulf gives more rain to the dry parts of Texas.
Put those together: One of the best ways to spot a big cooling trend / onset of glacial period: look for the combination of wetter Texas, warm winters in Florida, and a freezing UK. When that pattern forms, it is highly likely ocean circulation is slowing and a “Little Ice Age” is happening / started.
I know we’ve had more rain in Texas (the whole mid-west).
You are reporting a very cold UK.
Guess it’s time to watch Florida this winter…
@Sera:
I once put a bale in a VW (old air cooled) but for the life of me I can’t remember who’s car or why…We didn’t go far though. I think we needed to rope the hood down ;-) and go slow.
Somebody’s horse needed a bale out somewhere away from the barn, I think, maybe…
@Galloping Camel:
Glow Bull Warming has left the building! Gone off to visit Elvis…
But then
“In a warming world we may get overun by cheap soy and corn”
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/06/in-a-warming-world-we-may-get-overun-by-cheap-soy-and-corn/
Curious Ian we have known for decades that most plants grow better at higher CO2 levels…It’s a standard greenhouse growing practice.
But as cooling is the main trend in global climate NOW, I suspect that soy & corn prices will be heading North not South.
@ Sera, HR, EM:
It’s good to know I’m not the only oddball around–hauling hay in a vehicle that isn’t made for it. ;-)
I live in Europe (Belgium) and can’t find alfalfa hay. We have guineapigs and alfalfa hay is the best sort for them since it is a source of vitamin C which the piggies require from diet – as do we. I can get Timothy hay plus hay with carrot, apple etc – but not alfalfa. Is this available in Europe?
BTW we’re having a cold and wet spring here also, with all the jet stream loopiness from the negative AO and NAO. Great post.
Phil, It’s June. You are having a cold wet Summer. :-)
My Dad was from Liverpool. he said that he migrated to Oz because he got sick of missing the English Summer when he shaved in the morning. That was in the postwar war 1940’s & early 1950’s.
@phil Salmon:
Feed your guinea pig a mix of timothy hay and cabbage leaves:
http://www.dietandfitnesstoday.com/vitamin-c-in-cabbage.php
So if your GPig is about 1/100th of the size of a human and has similar Vit C / kg need, then they ought to be fine on about 2 grams / day. OTOH, the RDA of 60 mg is way way low and doesn’t prevent atherosclerosis / heart disease.(which looks like it needs about 1 gm / 100 lbs or 2 grams / 100 kg). So the little fella might need 1000/60 = 16 grams of cabbage a day. Still, not a lot.
and it has more at the link…
Guess I need to get better at growing cabbages and choy…
Then again, if the little fella likes guavas or kiwi fruit…
https://www.myfooddata.com/articles/vitamin-c-foods.php
So even using a higher DV number by about 50%, these folks find 100g of Guava is 254% of your daily value, so about 1 g of guava would be the same for a 1 to 2 lb guinea pig. Figure 1/2 gram as the minimal therapeutic amount… I guess that would depend on how much he / she likes Guava and how much guava you are willing to eat to finish it off ;-)
So basically what I’m saying is that with a little bit of the right fruits and leaves, they will get all the Vit C they need and then some ;-)
Bell Peppers are also high in vitimine C and I bet a guinea pig would love to munch on a couple sticks of green pepper.
I dropped the truck off to get the trailer hitch/receiver assembly replaced. There’s a really neat shop about 2.5-3 miles from my house that only does trailer hitches. It’s a couple of old guys that have been there since dirt and probably fought off Indians to open the shop ;o) (And you think you are a packrat, E.M. You should see this place!)
Anyhow, there’s still lot’s of farmland just outside the neighborhood. On the way home, I noticed a field of about 200 acres that got the beans in but – just an eyeball estimate – it looks like about 30% of the crop has drowned. An adjoining field of about 600 acres, also in beans, only had a small patch that drowned. I’d but it at 1-2% if that.
Point being that this farmer took a gamble on planting early, figuring it wasn’t going to freeze again, so he got his crop planted before the rain train started. This farm has been owned by the same family since who knows when, but a long time for sure.
Farming is a gamble, but knowing your fields and local weather history and patterns does give a farmer an edge. This farmer will come out OK. The loss will probably be made up for in higher prices for the remaining crop, so it will probably be a normal year for income.
There are other fields around that have yet to be planted; too wet. I don’t know the last date to plant and still get a crop in around here, but if the date hasn’t passed yet, it will very soon. I don’t see the rain train stopping for another week or so.
Phil Salmon
Just out of curiosity – what about lucerne hay?
@H.R.:
Don’t know what State is in question for you, but here’s a map for Illinois that ought to be about the same for things on both sides.
https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2017/04/earliest-planting-final-planting-dates-prevented.html
Has June 20 for Soybeans in the bottom of the State. I would have expected it to be even later further South. Yet this site gives planting dates much earlier:
So, yeah, it is ideal to plant earlier when frost risk is past, but it also ought to be possible to plant later… unless Soybeans don’t like hot summer or the humidity… or it’s a “double crop” so you lose one of the crops with a late start…
https://www.agweb.com/soybean-planting-map/
Has Missouri as worst off at 37%, Louisiana best at 95% (UNLESS the Mississippi gets crazy about flooding over Louisiana farmland…) then others scattered around.
So how to interpret? I’d guess the deep south got planted before the crazy rains set in, the middle of the MidWest got soaked just before planting so it getting a prevent against it, then further north drains into them, so got to plant more, and start later anyway…
Still looks like it’s going to be a poor season no matter what. But variable by location.
This BBC report is interesting. Good photos and sliders showing the extent of flooding at some key points in the Mid-West.
They can’t help blaming it all on ‘Climate Change’ but then at the very end admit that this is the worst flood since 1927 !
Wow !
Clearly then their beloved climate change MUST logically have been happening well before 1927 !!
Or maybe it’s just the weather this year ?
Or climate cooling ?
> There has been a shift in the weather toward the Little Ice Age pattern, with big storms, late heavy rains, flooding, and even snow into the start of Summer / late Spring at higher elevations.
Can you post some links on where the LIA weather pattern is documented in detail? Thanks.
Enjoyed your post, as usual.
Try this book
It documents the climate shifts using historical records
https://www.eh-resources.org/little-ice-age/
https://weather.thefuntimesguide.com/little_ice_age/
http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/virtualmuseum/climatechange2/04_3.shtml
And the sidebar topics
http://michigan-weather-center.org/little-ice-age
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=little+ice+age+weather&t=brave&ia=web
It is something of a puzzle because only recently have people begun to put the snippets of information together to try to form a coherent whole.
As noted in various online links and in the Little Ice Age book above, there was a significant shift in climate that occured in about the early 1300’s ( 1308 – 1315-16) in Europe of periods of extended severe rains where locations got saturating rains that lasted days – weeks or months making it impossible to plant, grow or harvest crops in the fields which had become bottomless bogs.
Here in the US we began to see similar extended rain events which have popped up in various places over the following years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Colorado_floods
In the Denver Metro area total annual precipitation is typically 15+ inches. In those few days of September we literally got a years worth of rainfall. We are still repairing damages from that flooding. It was only recently that the roads destroyed above Lyons were reopened and finished with repairs.
Recently Nebraska had wide spread flooding from the same sort of heavy wet snow / rain leaving central Nebraska a large shallow lake in many areas.
There are too many instances to list them all but those are two events local to me in the Rocky Mountains and nearby high plains.
The presumption is that as the atmosphere cools it can hold less water vapor so rain falls increase as it tries to reach a new equilibrium.
FWIW: The biggest issues in LIA weather were shorter growing season by a few weeks, much more wind and hail crop damage, and way more cold rain. Just what we are seeing now from the USA to the UK & EU, to China and Australia.
Eventually the rain will slow down as the oceans cool, but it will take a few years. We will still have the cold and wind issues. France had lots of wheat loss from wind (Thus the “Let them eat cake” moment followed by “off with their heads” from the Deplorables to the Eletes.) while Germany and the UK moved to the potato to get through it all.
We now have the advantage of very short wheat (6 inches in the extreme, but a foot more common) instead of 2 to 3 foot straw. Much harder to blow down. Now we will find out if it is enough…
Which reminds me, I need to start a potato bbl planter…
There will be food problems, but most likely manageable, as we now have global shipping AND a global glut of production capacity (why else feed 1/3 of the corn crop to cars?)
The biggest thing likely to cause hurt is that our systems will not react fast enough. Just take crop insurance: To get paid for a “prevent planting” claim you are fobidden to grow any other crop for money untill next November. This functionally forbids the “catch crop” process of the past where you might grow a fast buckwheat crop to make some money when corn planting failed.
The problem is that while I can eat buckwheat cakes and stay alive, I can’t eat crop insurance payments.
How many years will it take for that to be changed?
I expect this to become critical when we have our second or third “bad year” in a row, as then we will be out of “carryover” stocks, farmers will be out of money and closing up, seedcorn will be running way low (it gets the same weather problems), and insurance companies will start failing. So you need to play the long game here. Next year might be great, but that doesn’t mean it’s over… it means your AwShit is moved out another 2 years. Or next year could be like this one and critical status hitting various 3rd world folks (Egypt can’t feed itself in a good year).
So one needs to ratchet up preparedness stocks in the good times and stretch thing in a short grow year, as there may be several in a row…
Maybe one less problem
“Wheat myth debunked”
“The pervasive myth that intensive breeding has made modern wheat cultivars weaker and more dependent on pesticides and fertilisers is debunked by a major new study”
E. M. Smith
Thanks for the great info on vitamin C content of fruit and veg. Our piggies do eat cabbage, so we’ll get them some red cabbage to boost vit C. They also like tomatoes and broccoli, we always give them the stalks when we cook with broccoli. (Sometimes the whole broccoli 🥦 also.) Do the stalks also contain vit C or just the foliage?
Silence from media such as BBC on this serious crop failure due to cooling climate. They at least understand that it undermines the warming story.
Not so the National Geographic. They are claiming it as a trophy for climate change. Warming, cooling – it’s doubtful anyone at NG understands the difference.
postscript on the use of hay for bedding.
In late fall when it started to get cold I would buy a bale of alfalfa hay and a bale of ceder wood chips and toss them in the dog house. In cold weather dogs react to that mix like it was cat nip for dogs. They just loved to burrow into it and make a nice warm bed for cold winter nights when they had to spend time out in the cold instead of in the house.
Straw bedding is not desirable for dogs they can get a piece of straw stuck in their ear canal and cause all sorts of problems, grass hay it is not an issue.
Fresh alfalfa hay bedding also does good things for wet dog smell in nasty weather when you bring them in the house.
My dog would spend an hour or so “rearranging the furniture” in her dog house after getting the new bedding until she had a giant nest she could curl up in as the evening chill came on or snow started to fly.
@ Chris in Calgary:
I have that ice age book. I also have Robert Felix’s 2 books. His current web site is https://www.iceagenow.info . I’ve been reading it for maybe 15 years. It has helped me resist the indoctrination by the warmistas all these years.
@Larry:
Bunnies, too, seem to like hay bedding better. They will much down the straw, and will eat a lot of timothy hay, but to make a nest, especially for a new litter, the mama bunny chooses soft timothy and then lines it with fur / down she plucks from her chest. Just an incredibly soft nest with no sharp pokey straw ends.
They do something similar with alfalfa, but only after eating their fill ;-)
It IS funny to see a bunny chewing on the end of a big fat straw. It looks like they have a small pipe in their mouth…. as it slowly shrinks. They need to abrade their front teeth (that constantly grow) and I think that’s why the like the stiff straw with the higher silicon content (that is rougher on big herbivore teeth).
I’m also pretty sure my Dad just used hay for bedding with the calves he’d raise. He’d only do 2 at a time and I think it was just logistically easier to not buy a bale of hay and one of straw. He’d take two vealers and finish them for 2 weeks on “Rolled Oats & Molasses” that he would special order from the feed store. Gives a very special flavor to the meat as it turns from veal pink to beef red, but stays very tender… I think part of the idea was that if they got hungry when he wasn’t around to give them a load of feed, they had some hay to work on.
Not the kind of thing you would do in an industrial farm as the costs are prohibitive, but the kind of thing you can do on a scale of “2 cows and 2 calves”. I’m also pretty sure that when he grew up on the farm they raised pigs, corn, and some hay, but not a straw crop. It is probably the case that, as they had “free hay”, they just used what they had instead of buying in straw bales. So they had lots of corn stalks and silage, and hay, but not growing a seed crop like {wheat, barley, oats, rye, rice,…} they didn’t have a supply of straw post threshing. Then again, that’s pushing 100 years ago now. Strange to think that. His birthday 100 years ago… so who knows how much things have changed.
@Larry:
Bunnies, too, seem to like hay bedding better. They will much down the straw, and will eat a lot of timothy hay, but to make a nest, especially for a new litter, the mama bunny chooses soft timothy and then lines it with fur / down she plucks from her chest. Just an incredibly soft nest with no sharp pokey straw ends.
They do something similar with alfalfa, but only after eating their fill ;-)
It IS funny to see a bunny chewing on the end of a big fat straw. It looks like they have a small pipe in their mouth…. as it slowly shrinks. They need to abrade their front teeth (that constantly grow) and I think that’s why the like the stiff straw with the higher silicon content (that is rougher on big herbivore teeth).
I’m also pretty sure my Dad just used hay for bedding with the calves he’d raise. He’d only do 2 at a time and I think it was just logistically easier to not buy a bale of hay and one of straw. He’d take two vealers and finish them for 2 weeks on “Rolled Oats & Molasses” that he would special order from the feed store. Gives a very special flavor to the meat as it turns from veal pink to beef red, but stays very tender… I think part of the idea was that if they got hungry when he wasn’t around to give them a load of feed, they had some hay to work on.
Not the kind of thing you would do in an industrial farm as the costs are prohibitive, but the kind of thing you can do on a scale of “2 cows and 2 calves”. I’m also pretty sure that when he grew up on the farm they raised pigs, corn, and some hay, but not a straw crop. It is probably the case that, as they had “free hay”, they just used what they had instead of buying in straw bales. So they had lots of corn stalks and silage, and hay, but not growing a seed crop like {wheat, barley, oats, rye, rice,…} they didn’t have a supply of straw post threshing. Then again, that’s pushing 100 years ago now. Strange to think that. His birthday
Phil A
Reason for the query on lucerne hay if you aren’t familiar with the name
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfalfa
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Twelve days before July 4th and it is 47 degrees and almost continuous light rain for the last 24 hours here in the high country. Yeah the drought is over.
From twitter:
Still lots of snow in the high country only days before the July 4th holiday.
https://twitter.com/SteveSGoddard/status/1142493602003611648
And related:
Well this is an interesting summary of solar activity history.
https://notrickszone.com/2019/06/22/current-solar-cycle-will-be-first-to-finish-below-normal-in-80-years-weakest-in-close-to-200-years/
Regarding the sun
http://spaceweather.com/images2019/18jun19/TCI_From2006.jpg?PHPSESSID=aduboca6uof0gadb7aoi1nkam2
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
We’ve talked about this in the past but a link for the solar model prediction of a super grand minimum just popped up on twitter so post it here where it is easy to find.
https://electroverse.net/professor-valentina-zharkova-breaks-her-silence-and-confirms-super-grand-solar-minimum/
Larry Ledwick
Dr. Theodor Langscheidt called global cooling and a weak solar cycle coming before his death in 2004. Try http://www.john-daly.com if Google will let you. (John also died in 2004, his site is maintained as a memorial, and possibly to annoy Phil Jones of IPCC/HADcrut).
Our weather pattern finally seems to be changing a little towards a bit more normal Summer weather.
We were getting rain for 3-4 days with maybe a one day break in-between. Temperatures were in the 60s and low 70s (F). Now we are starting to get 3-4 days of no rain with only 1 or 2 days of rain in-between and temperatures are hitting the more normal 80s (F). Oh, and the rains are no longer frog-stranglers but more like 1/4″ – 1/2″ hitting the ground.
I am finally getting tomatoes set. The plants have grown very well but there just hasn’t been enough warm sun to get them to fruit. I spotted two marble-sized tomatoes yesterday and I suspect there’s a few more that I can’t spot as the plants are pretty lush.
I did a farm field report a few days ago (somewhere above) and I’ll give an update soon when I’m next out and about on errands. I’ll make a point of taking a few extra trips on the side roads running by the farms to get a better sample. I’m in the Eastern part of the Midwest which is corn, beans, and winter wheat country and I think our farmers fared a little better on planting than the farmers in the middle and upper Midwest.
Neanwhile here in the Aelaide Hills it has been cold, so cold for the past week.
Eight days of frosts with frozen pipes the other day.
Such joy it’s been !
My perennial tamarillo ( = tree tomato ) and 3 avocado trees are all frosted but may pull through. I hope so. I spent a day last weekend cleaning up last Summer’s tomato plants. We had a good harvest from March till early June. And of course all Summer type vegies are sky rocketing in price.; even blah Zuchinnis !
I suggest all you USA folks pray for more Global Warming. Or maybe burn more fossil fuels to get the CO2 warming working better.
Graeme No.3 says:
24 June 2019 at 7:53 am
Yes – several of us have been watching solar cycles since before 2008 when we had the sudden slowing of solar wind and quiet sun.
I am currently trying to get set up for an early onset winter this year, since we have had a cool and wet spring so far this spring. We got 2 ft of snow in the mountains on the first day of summer, and note below in the climate data report column 5 (departure from normal) we have had several day this month which have been more than 10 deg F below normal for the date.
Also note the cooling degree days at the bottom the page.
[CDD (BASE 65) ]
TOTAL THIS MO. 28
DPTR FM NORMAL -69 [PRESSURE DATA]
TOTAL FM JAN 1 33 HIGHEST SLP M ON M
DPTR FM NORMAL -86 LOWEST SLP 29.51 ON 20
Personally I think heating and cooling degree days are one of the better metrics to monitor to see cooling or heating trends in real time. As they integrate the warmth or cooling over the day rather than just highs and lows.
June 26 and at 9:46 in the morning it is only 73 deg F, this time of year it should be in the high 70’s nudging low 80’s this time of the morning, only a week before July 4th holiday.
As I noted to a coworker yesterday we are only 10.5 weeks away from first historical snow of the year in early September here in the Denver Metro area, so I am getting ready to buy winter tires as soon as the come available in early August and a new battery for the car I just bought for winter season driving.
WFO Monthly/Daily Climate Data
000
CXUS55 KBOU 260735
CF6DEN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)
STATION: DENVER CO
MONTH: JUNE
YEAR: 2019
LATITUDE: 39 52 N
LONGITUDE: 104 40 W
TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND
================================================================================
1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
12Z AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR
================================================================================
1 73 49 61 -2 4 0 T 0.0 0 9.8 22 130 M M 5 3 28 180
2 81 49 65 2 0 0 T 0.0 0 11.8 43 180 M M 5 3 56 200
3 82 50 66 3 0 1 0.09 0.0 0 9.6 26 140 M M 4 3 38 110
4 78 50 64 0 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.6 22 280 M M 5 3 31 270
5 78 50 64 0 1 0 T 0.0 0 8.2 21 300 M M 5 3 27 290
6 81 54 68 4 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 10.4 17 180 M M 3 3 24 190
7 86 55 71 6 0 6 0.15 0.0 0 9.4 29 250 M M 5 38 37 260
8 78 47 63 -2 2 0 0.09 0.0 0 14.2 30 20 M M 6 3 42 20
9 63 42 53 -12 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.7 21 30 M M 6 28 20
10 78 42 60 -6 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 12.4 24 200 M M 5 32 150
11 78 49 64 -2 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.6 23 30 M M 6 8 32 40
12 73 53 63 -3 2 0 T 0.0 0 7.1 15 80 M M 5 20 160
13 86 49 68 1 0 3 T M 0 9.6 29 30 M M 7 3 39 250
14 85 58 72 5 0 7 T 0.0 0 11.0 22 30 M M 7 3 30 250
15 79 50 65 -2 0 0 0.02 0.0 0 9.5 21 200 M M 6 3 27 20
16 83 49 66 -2 0 1 0.01 M 0 6.7 35 200 M M 7 3 43 200
17 75 49 62 -6 3 0 0.08 M 0 6.9 28 290 M M 8 123 37 280
18 71 51 61 -7 4 0 0.97 0.0 0 8.2 38 340 M M 8 13 54 340
19 83 50 67 -1 0 2 T 0.0 0 7.9 20 280 M M 7 26 280
20 82 53 68 -1 0 3 0.36 0.0 0 9.8 24 310 M M 6 35 37 230
21 67 49 58 -11 7 0 0.15 M 0 10.2 25 50 M M 7 13 35 50
22 65 45 55 -15 10 0 0.21 M 0 9.6 23 330 M M 8 13 31 320
23 65 44 55 -15 10 0 0.01 M 0 8.4 29 350 M M 5 13 38 350
24 80 50 65 -5 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.4 22 290 M M 4 31 300
25 83 51 67 -3 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 12.8 29 180 M M 5 38 180
================================================================================
SM 1933 1238 62 28 2.14 0.0 238.8 M 145
================================================================================
AV 77.3 49.5 9.6 FASTST M M 6 MAX(MPH)
MISC ----> # 43 180 # 56 200
================================================================================
NOTES:
# LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES
COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2
STATION: DENVER CO
MONTH: JUNE
YEAR: 2019
LATITUDE: 39 52 N
LONGITUDE: 104 40 W
[TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16
AVERAGE MONTHLY: 63.4 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 2.14 1 = FOG OR MIST
DPTR FM NORMAL: -3.2 DPTR FM NORMAL: 0.46 2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY
HIGHEST: 86 ON 13, 7 GRTST 24HR 0.97 ON 18-18 TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS
LOWEST: 42 ON 10, 9 3 = THUNDER
SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL 4 = ICE PELLETS
TOTAL MONTH: 0.0 INCH 5 = HAIL
GRTST 24HR 0.0 6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
GRTST DEPTH: 0 7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM:
VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS
8 = SMOKE OR HAZE
[NO. OF DAYS WITH] [WEATHER - DAYS WITH] 9 = BLOWING SNOW
X = TORNADO
MAX 32 OR BELOW: 0 0.01 INCH OR MORE: 11
MAX 90 OR ABOVE: 0 0.10 INCH OR MORE: 5
MIN 32 OR BELOW: 0 0.50 INCH OR MORE: 1
MIN 0 OR BELOW: 0 1.00 INCH OR MORE: 0
[HDD (BASE 65) ]
TOTAL THIS MO. 62 CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 0
DPTR FM NORMAL 4 PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7) 24
TOTAL FM JUL 1 6281 CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 1
DPTR FM NORMAL 227
[CDD (BASE 65) ]
TOTAL THIS MO. 28
DPTR FM NORMAL -69 [PRESSURE DATA]
TOTAL FM JAN 1 33 HIGHEST SLP M ON M
DPTR FM NORMAL -86 LOWEST SLP 29.51 ON 20
[REMARKS]
@Larry L:
So you are having about a 90 day “growing season” already and with cool / cold nights at that. Not going to be a lot of tomatoes in your area…
FWIW, this is part of why I’m playing with hydroponics. On the one hand, so I can cut my summer water usage in the garden. They are doing crazy things with water prices / draconian control here. On the other hand, I think it will be important to be able to grow things indoors when it is cold. I’m thinking that winter salads and fresh vegetables are likely to go quite expensive as Mexico needs to keep more food at home for her people and our ability to grow things gets damaaged by cold.
While right now we’re seeing that in grain and soybeans in the midwest, I think it will not be forever before California starts having some kinds of problems too. I don’t know what to expect for Mexico as I’ve not paid much attention to their weather cycles; BUT in one article on Texas (and the 1500 year cycle) I quoted a historical text from a party that marched through Texas and into Mexico. They talked about intense cold at night and waking to everything frosted over. So, to the extent Mexico starts to get heavy night frosts / snow; winter “fresh vegetables” are going to become scarce and expensive….
@Bill in Oz:
Are there any historical reports of what weather was like in Australia during the Dalton or Maunder minimums? I don’t remember any reports of Little Ice Age Australia and my Australian history is too weak to know just when the British arrived…
(Yeah, I could look it up… but you are right here ;-)
Meanwhile Europe is complaining about a heat wave – Iceland set a new record of 22 deg C which happens to be 0.4 deg F below the temperature I have my home thermostat set at.
https://www.euronews.com/2019/06/26/from-iceland-to-spain-heatwave-grips-europe
Yeah… on France24 there were in horrors that it might maybe possibly for a few minutes in the day go over 100 F. IIRC it was 104 F in the conversion from metric.40 C.
Where i grew up it was “110 F in the shade and there ain’t no shade!” pretty much every summer. Hottest I personally remember was 117 F. Folks flock to Phoenix Arizona to retire. I was there one August when it was 126 F and the airport tarmac was melting in the sun so they shut down the airport.
Strange, but I don’t remember mass deaths from any of that, nor any food shortages…
So France and California both have a “Mediterranean Climate” that folks crave greatly. It gets hot in the summers when the most tourists run to those locations. Everyone loves a day at the beach then. This is bad how?
Much of the problem is composed of two issues I think, one accilimization to the prevailing climate. If you live in the UK and think normal indoor temperature should be 55-65 degrees you are going to thing mid to high 70’s is hot. I went through that when stationed in the tropics and froze when it was in the low 70’s once you got used to hot and humid all the time. Same for San Francisco harbor before I shipped out, it was August and I was freezing to death on Treasure Island in the middle of the bay.
The second it modern climate controlled homes and businesses. When I was growing up it was no big deal for indoor temps in the summer to get up into the high 80’s F we just opened the windows and managed exertion. It was the way the world was.and you dealt with it. In 1968 the down town thermometers on the banks were all reading from 104 – 106 F and we were sitting on a bus with no air conditioning as it crept through traffic. You dealt with it.
Now folks get all hot and bothered (pun intended) it temps get over the high 80’s and freak out if temps hit the 90’s and they have no access to air conditioning.
Habituation, experience and acclimatization have drastically narrowed what most people consider acceptable temperatures.
E M, my comment above was larded with sarcasm. Frosts in Winter are normal here in the Adelaide Hills – but not ground freeze. If we had ground freezing I would be worried. And I am growing various exotic/rare fruits to test if they can cope with our cold Winters or hot Summers.
You asked about the impact of the Dalton & Maunder minimums on our climate. Coincidentally I was pointed at this article in a regional city paper in NSW.
https://www.armidaleexpress.com.au/story/6133295/climate-change-and-how-long-this-drought-will-last/
An interesting explanation that out droughts are related to the sun spot cycle. Something which I had not through about before.
( Curious how such a scientific idea cannot get airtime in our nationally funded ABC. or the big city MSM. Too busy blathering on about CO2 & catastrophes to read science !
@Larry, re “one’s accilimization to the prevailing climate.”. Yes you are spot on. Air conditioning has created the same problem here in Oz. A generation that has never had to cope with heat waves ( because of A/C ) and so is now worried about hot Summers….
At home here last Summer I hardly used the A/C…Ceiling fans and blinds kept us cool enough for A/C to be unnecessary.
So far the UN FAO estimates are that flood related depression in US corn (maize) production will reduce expected outputs about 3%, so at the moment world food stocks are still in reasonably good shape, but these events do show that major storm events in bread basket production regions can have a rather sudden impact on availability of food stocks.
http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/
/https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/grain.pdf
(page 17 of this report has an interesting chart of the calendar window where each product is produced in each major producing country.
For a full summary of the marketing period (when one crop finishes harvest and then next crop is planted) for each crop see:
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/downloads
For example Corn market year in the US is Sept to August where in Brazil the market year for corn is March to February.
There are however locations that are experiencing shortages due to complex local issues not world supplies. (Famines and shortages are often local while ample grain exists world wide but cannot get to the areas it is needed due to corruption, war or other issues which block efficient transport or purchase.
https://www.world-grain.com/articles/12154-kenya-facing-maize-shortage-crisis
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/gas-shortages-sky-high-food-prices-plague-venezuelans-amid-economic-n1016496
https://www.agri-pulse.com/articles/12294-heavy-demand-for-cover-crop-seed-could-create-shortage
https://www1.wfp.org/news/record-number-people-facing-critical-lack-food-south-sudan
https://www1.wfp.org/news/after-worst-harvest-ten-years-10-million-people-dprk-face-imminent-food-shortages