Can It Be More Clear? Jabs vs Lockdowns vs Freedom vs Ivermectin

The data / graphs here come from World-O-Meters

For a nation that skipped the whole “lockdown” stuff, we’ll use Sweden. Most folks there ought to have immunity to Chinese Wuhan Covid one way or another. Near as I can tell, Ivermectin is not in use there.

For a nation that has extremely high “Jabs & Boosters” along with masks, lockdowns, etc. I’m using Israel. Ought to be the Poster Child for doing it the “officially approved” way.

For nations using Ivermectin, we will look at Japan (also highly vaccinated) and India (relatively low vaccination rate but lots of Ivermectin). Just to see if there is a geographic issue or an Asians vs not, I’m tossing in South Korea as a “Japan Analog” but without Ivermectin use, near as I can tell.

Then, for “first out the gate” South Africa, which ought to give the longest time profile of Omicron.

Finally, just as a “How are ‘we’ doing”, the USA for comparison.


South Africa

First out the gate, not a great level of vaccination nor a lot of Ivermectin formally used. However, much of Africa uses Ivermectin, Hydroxychloriquine or similar for parasite control.


South Africa Covid Cases 8 Jan 2022

South Africa Covid Cases 8 Jan 2022

Sooo… ripping through the country in a huge “Pop & Drop”. In just a few weeks a big peak and near instant drop just after that. This Omicron thing rips through a population in about a month.


South Africa Deaths 8 Jan 2022

South Africa Deaths 8 Jan 202

Hmmm… Not nearly as big a “spike”. In fact, about like the LOWEST area of the original strain during the quiet time after that peak. It sure looks like Omicron is just not as big a problem, and / or we’ve learned more about treatments and therapeutics…

So that’s what it ought to look like as the “typical profile” of a population not doing anything particularly special.

Highly Vaccinated Israel vs Open Economy Sweden


Israel Cases 8 Jan 2022

Israel Cases 8 Jan 2022

OMG! What a spike up. Clearly The Jab is NOT preventing infections At All, nor stopping the spread. It looks a little early in the Pop & Drop, so watch this space for about another month.


Israel Deaths 8 Jan 2022

Israel Deaths 8 Jan 2022

Hmmm… Nearly no change. It does take time for deaths to show up, so again, watch this space for a few more weeks.

This might be evidence that the Vexxination actually does reduce deaths (i.e. it is not a vaccine, but a gene therapy, but works as such); or it might just be that deaths are delayed. It is also possible that Israel just has a really good treatment and therapeutic regimen. That needs a “Dig Here!” to sort out.

Sweden never did the “lockdown” thing. Had let the original strains pretty much run through the country. So is that granting a lot of Natural Immunity to Omicron? Are folks who’ve had it, home free?


Sweden Cases 8 Jan 2022

Sweden Cases 8 Jan 2022

Well… A huge spike rather like Israel. Clearly natural immunity is not enough (or the Vexxinate everyone has destroyed natural immunity…) So “cases” are spiking up big time there, too.


Sweden Deaths 8 Jan 2022

Sweden Deaths 8 Jan 2022

Yet just like Israel, deaths are flatlined. Just not seeing a change.

Again, needs watching over a few weeks, but it looks to me like “lockdown” has done nothing to change anything and it also looks like Omicron is not to be feared.

Ivermectin Japan & India vs Not / Control South Korea.

Looks like Ivermectin approving Nations are doing Just Fine.


Japan Cases 8 Jan 2022

Japan Cases 8 Jan 2022

Just a tiny little attempt at a spike. Now this could be because Asians are somehow more immune, or it just hasn’t made it to that part of the world yet. We’ll look at South Korea just 2 down below to see if that looks valid, or not.


Japan Deaths 8 Jan 2022

Japan Deaths 8 Jan 2022

Nothing, just nothing. I want to know what Japan is doing ;-) Oh, that’s right, they approved using Ivermectin as a therapeutic…

So did India. But India is just full of closely packed poor folks who are not vexxinated. Will it be like Japan? Or more like South Africa?


India Cases 8 Jan 2022

India Cases 8 Jan 2022

Gee… looks a whole lot like Japan…

India Deaths 8 Jan 2022

India Deaths 8 Jan 2022

Gee… again. Nearly nothing on the deaths front. An ongoing baseline death rate.

So how about checking on another Asian Advanced Country to see if Omicron just hasn’t made it to the area?

You may remember that early in the Plandemic, South Korea was being highly praised for their very rapid and effective “Mask Mandates” and push for vaccination and all that. How about now?


South Korea Cases 8 Jan 2022

South Korea Cases 8 Jan 2022

Oh My. Well, definitely hanging about in Asia… Quite the massive outbreak of cases.


South Korea Deaths 8 Jan 2022

South Korea Deaths 8 Jan 2022

Well, that’s not good. Not good at all. Looks like they managed to dodge excess deaths for the first 2 years, and now it’s all happening Right Now. But is it Omicron, or an interaction with the Vexxination level? Or a change of Therapeutic Regimen?

Gee… Looks to me like Omicron has bypassed all those “measures” and is just running the table on the the South Koreans who managed to not gain any national “Herd Immunity” to date…

Maybe they need to talk to the folks in Japan and India…


What a truly HORRIBLE level of deaths. Clearly whatever is being done in the USA SUCKS big time. Maybe Fauxi needs to have a re-think.

I’ll take the India & Japan approach, heck, even the Sweden approach, over this sack of steaming poo.


USA Cases 8 Jan 2022

USA Cases 8 Jan 2022

Cases rocketing through the roof. Guess that “mostly vaccinated” isn’t doing much, eh?


USA Deaths 8 Jan 2022

USA Deaths 8 Jan 2022

Worst of all worlds. Not “very low then high” like South Korea. Not “nearly none” like Japan or India. Not even “Roller coaster” like South Africa.

Nooo… We’ve got lots of deaths consistently…

Clearly whatever Fauxi and friends are telling us to do is Very Wrong.

I suggest firing the entire lot of them and letting a contract to the Japanese Health Ministry. Now.

I know. It really needs to be “deaths per million” or some such, not just “deaths”. But really… does anyone really think the USA Protocols are working better than Japan?

I did a spot check on Florida and California. Both are having a spike in cases of about equal visual quality / size. Both are not having a spike in deaths (though California looks to have more consistent and higher death rates). Though oddly with very different months of peaking. I presume from different travel patterns.

It might be worth it to wander through various States doing an A/B comparison too; but really, I think the conclusion is already pretty clear:

The mRNA jabs are NOT doing a damn thing to stop Omicron. You get all the risk from a “booster” and no gain.

It doesn’t matter if you were naturally exposed (Sweden) or jabbed (Israel), you have low deaths from Omicron.

South Korea is catching up with the rest of the world. It ought to be inspected for just why the deaths are so high now. But I think it is just “catch up”…

Ivermectin works. Both for prevention of cases and as early treatment. India and Japan have the answer. Every nation with a spike in cases ought to have a team in one of them to study how to do this right.

CDC, FDA, FauXi & Friends are evil and incompetent. They ought to be removed from any authority and exposed as failures. Anyone following their advice is also either Evil, Incompetent, or ignorant of the rest of world experience. IF in a position of authority (such as California Governor or New York Governor / NYC Mayor) they need to step down if following the “lockdown, masks and jabs” mandate “advice”. It clearly does not work, has not worked, and will not work.

Therapeutics matter, especially so for Omicron. There ought to be daily PSAs about Vit-D Vit-A Vit-C Vit-E Zinc Quercetin etc. Ivermectin ought to be OTC for anyone and everyone. NOW.

IMHO, that’s what these graphs say.


I’m adding graphs for Australia in response to the discussion in comments. Look at that vertical line up on Australian Cases! 115k in ONE DAY.


Australia Cases 8 Jan 2022

Australia Cases 8 Jan 2022


Australia Deaths 8 Jan 2022

Australia Deaths 8 Jan 2022

In a couple of weeks we will see if Deaths rise.

Clearly whatever Australia was doing to prevent “contagion” has failed catastrophically. It is in uncontrolled exponential expansion.

Given that this Omicron variant seems well matched to common rodents, good luck with preventing a mouse and rat reservoir from spreading it nation wide in days to weeks. Wasn’t Australia having a Plague Or Mice not too long ago?

I’m thinking no amount of masking, jabs that don’t work, and being locked in your home with mice free to roam is going to work at all.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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110 Responses to Can It Be More Clear? Jabs vs Lockdowns vs Freedom vs Ivermectin

  1. AnnieM says:

    Also from worldometers. The US has the highest number of deaths reported of any country in the world. For those who complain that the US has the third highest population in the world (so of course it has more deaths) the US is 20th from the top of highest number of deaths per million of all countries. So over 170 countries are doing better than we are.

  2. Ossqss says:

    So, I am hearing of another escape from a lab in SA. We shall see >

  3. Tim says:

    Australia is going through a significant ramp up of positive cases due to Omicrom. That’s with over 91% shot twice and some of the longest lockdowns. Our Worldometer charts look like we haven’t had any waves so far, they are lost in the noise compared to this.

  4. E.M.Smith says:


    WOW! It’s like a vertical line up:

    Says 100,000 new cases in a day. (115,807 on 8 Jan 2022 bar).

    I think given the way Australia had kept the virus out for so long, there was no slow development of natural immunity. At this point, I’m pretty sure I’ve had it “up my nose” a dozen times or more (likely in very small amounts) and have likely developed some antibodies to it, just from many ‘less than infectious’ exposures. But in Australia, most folks will be 100% unexposed (if your vexxination rate is still relatively low, as cases until now were nearly nothing).

    I suspect Australia is going to have an exponential explosion of cases. You can only hope that the severity stays very low. (or find a bottle of Ivermectin somewhere…)

  5. E.M.Smith says:

    I’ve added an UPDATE at the bottom of the article with the Australia graphs… The “New Cases” is mighty impressive vertical exponential shape. IIRC there’s a 2 or 3 day “doubling time”, so 200K, 400k, 800k, 1.2 M by next week… Per Day. So about 3 million total. Not going to take long to cover the whole nation. But the last couple of days looks more like doubling every day. WUWT?…

  6. E.M.Smith says:

    Wow, France has 1/3 Million new cases in one day.

    It does look like deaths are staying low, though. (So Far…)

    Italy going vertical from a fairly low base too:

    And the UK starting from more cases rising steadily over 6 months to start to go vertical recently:

    Given how things have developed in other countries, I’d say the EU and UK have a rough couple of weeks in front of them as this exponential explodes (and eventually turns into an S shaped Logistics Curve).

    AND…. There is NO WAY AT ALL to “slow the spread” or “save the NHS” or whatever. Omicron does not care about “lockdowns” or masks or (anti-)Social Distancing or The Jab. None of them will even slow it down a little. (And evidence is that The Jab and a booster INCREASE Omicron cases, likely from Original Antigenic Sin, possibly from Antibody Dependent Enhancement…)

    So January 21 to 28 ought to be a very interesting situation in terms of European and North American health care systems…

    I think I’ll plan on staying in the next couple of weeks and just watching the events unfold on the TV… The Usual Suspects will be ramping up the hysteria and Fear Porn all while the Karens & Kens are going Bat Shit Crazy and the Purebloods and Patriots will just be taking care of family and friends.

    Maybe I’ll make a 1 month “Supply Run” to the store tomorrow… Just in case Governor Nuisance decides to issue some even more draconian Bat Shit Crazy Mandates… (or ought that be “mouse shit crazy” now ;-)

  7. AC Osborn says:

    Tim says: 9 January 2022 at 6:59 am

    That is the response in most G20 countires.
    It is almost as if they want people to get ill and be hospitalised.
    They never mention an Immune boosting Vitamin regime or any kind of effective treatment from the 29 known treatments that work to some extent.

  8. Tim says:

    @AC Osborn
    You’re right. No mention of anything that might actually assist. And even the official line is go home and isolate if you test +ve. Go to the hospital if you are really sick.

    Me… On a Vitamin D, Zinc, Multi-Vit mix daily, plus quercetin in the pantry should I happen to catch anything (which is unlikely given my location in rural Vic, working from home and only going out for food/booze). If I could be a study of one, ethanol could be contributing to my lack of covid so far too. :-)

  9. rhoda klapp says:

    No Busch lite here, so forced to rely on vitamins and zinc. In the UK a tripling of testing has resulted in a testdemic. Mostly omicron isn’t causing hospital admissions or deaths. That cold I just had might have been omicron. But I didn’t have a test, I’ve never had one. I expect the UK to peak in the next day or two, if we haven’t already, then we’ll be on the steep downslope.

  10. David A says:

    At the Worldometer site under India, under sources clicking on the second source gives a breakdown per providence. ( important because disparate policy is followed in each providence. ) Clicking on the second of the two one can select Utarh Pradesh, where the systemic contact trace and treat vitamin D, zinc, and Ivermectin was rolled out.
    In the YS the positive rate never went below 6 percent and is now well over 20 percent.
    ( last 90 days). In Utarh Pardesh when the test positive rate went to over 20 percent the treatment protocol began. The RO went to way way below one, the treat positive rate went to .01, then to ZERO until just recently where it spiked to just under 2 percent AND has since crashed back to a very small fraction of under one percent.
    My question is did India, begin the contact tracing program again, and kill the newest version of Covid just as it began.
    Note, vaccinated rate is still very low, yet continues for some insane reason.
    Note, death and test positive rate are perhaps the most important statistics.
    Then hospitalized
    Note, Utarh Pardesh population density is more the 12 times the US, vaccinated ratio far lower, test positive rate almost infinitely lower, and 90 day deaths also almost non existent.

  11. David A says:

    Playing with the India charts a bit some numbers clarify. Test positive rate has climbed in Uttar Pradesh all the way to 1.6 percent. About 2 people per week are dying. Per WM about 330 per day are dying in India. Uttar Pradesh is almost 30 percent of India’s population.
    Did the rest of India never follow the Uttar Pradesh protocol? ( Or just somewhat, or sporadically?

  12. David A says:

    US testing data shows California doing fewer tests over the last 3 months, and Florida doing far more

  13. cdquarles says:

    Reminder when we talk about tests: 1. What kind (and PCR tests do not detect pathogens, so they’re screening tests, despite what the bureaucrats say), 2. Sensitivity and Specificity, 3. true prevalence (need culturing, microscopy and sequencing for this), so we can do 4. Positive predictive value. Signs and symptoms for most, if not all viral diseases are from the host’s response, so overlap a lot. Where they don’t, like loss of taste or smell, help. Things like blood cell differential counts, leukocyte cell typing/subtyping and, indeed, general metabolic status tests like vitamin levels are needed. General population testing with overly sensitive and not nearly specific enough tests yield poor predictive values from a medical point of view; but great from a politcal point of view. So, there we are.

  14. philjourdan says:

    I gave up listening to Dr Death and his Bumbling handler long ago. As others have said, I do the daily vitamin thing, and wait to get it.

    The US has the highest deaths because the number is fake. It is a total of those who have died FROM the WuFlu and those who have died WITH the WuFlu. If the death was listed as WuFlu, the Government pays more. When you subsidize a thing, you get more of that thing. Econ 101.

  15. E.M.Smith says:


    A great summary!

    We have a (as Rhoda put it ;-) “testdemic” going on. Folks with Omicron “simple cold symptoms” showing up as “OMG!!! IT’S COVID!!!” due to God Only Knows what testing. Frankly, the “swab the nares entry rim” test done at Kaiser will mark you with The Big Red C if you just inhaled a bit of dead virus residue and the nose stopped it at the entry. PCR Tests will label you “UNCLEAN!!!” if you got over the “cold of Omicron” 2 weeks ago…


    Golly, that IS good news! I’ll have to make sure my acetaminophen supply is full!! /sarc;

    FWIW I’m doing a similar bit. The Vitamins (A, C, D, E, B Complex, Multi), Minerals (Zinc, Mg, Selenium), and Ionophore on the shelf (Quercetin in hand, Quinine Water at the store if needed). Though I’ve also got Ivermectin prophylactic used any week I’m out and about or on the road a lot.


    Does make a fella wonder who is doing the coordinating and why…

    @Rhoda & Tim:

    Hmmm…. I think that’s an important variable I’ve not measured well. Given my Weekly Wine Consumption, it might not be Ivermectin. It very well could be Wine & Beer. Thursday “Australian Friday” posting ‘work’. Friday Sushi & Sake. (We won’t mention Saturday & Mon-Wed…) As I think about it, as the Plandemic has gotten worse, my consumption has gone up too and perhaps offered ever more protection.

    We need a controlled study. Anyone know someone who’s sober? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller? ;-) I volunteer to be in the test group!!!

    @David A:

    Nice info on a deeper dive into the charts for India. Yes, individual states / provinces set their own rules and it varies. There’s also some kind of Authority Food Fight going on over Ivermectin in India with 2 opposing factions (despite the clear “IT F-ing Works” real world experience) so usage varies over time in some states / provinces as the tide shifts. Similar to Peru where they used it, got a 15x or so reduction, then stopped and got a 15x or so increase…

    Folks have a fundamental need for a Religious Feeling. Those who attach this need to “The Science!” (really “The Scientist who will do my thinking for me”…) have developed a religious fervor over anything labeled as “Vaccine”. They do not (will not? can not?) look at efficacy data or consider things like vaccine escape, original antigenic sin, antibody dependent enhancement, Marek’s Disease, etc. as it causes them to: A) Think, against their will (the ultimate sin…) or B) Question their religion or C) Feel Bad about their prior trust decisions.

    Is what it is.

    Best you can do is give them the information in a polite and caring way and then step back and let them pick their hill to die on.

    Most people are fundamentally intellectually lazy. This means they have strong habits of NOT thinking and certainly not thinking to any depth. Their preferred way to handle anything more complex than “want fries with that?” is to just parrot a prepackaged opinion from an “Authority” and feel good about how smart they are. The basic mode is: “This Authority knows more about this than I ever will so I’ll just adopt their position and have their credential by extension behind me. I can have Ph.D. level ‘smarts’ without all that work…” but it fails when the Authority is also a lazy thinker, simply wrong and / or out of date, or fundamentally evil as in Fauxi.


    Good points.

  16. E.M.Smith says:

    A fascinating interview with an Israeli M.D. by Dr. John Campbell.

    While it is mostly about Vit-D effectiveness, it touches on a lot more. Toward the end, he mentions some of the Vexxine side effects and damage he’s seen in some patients. Plus some discussion of how Medical Doctors see the world. Generally interested in vitamins and nutrition as important, but notes that for a very long while discussion of vitamins and nutrition were seen as sort of, er, fringey.

    This particular M.D. has had Covid, so adds some of that perspective. His recovery time was rather long even with treatments.

    Bottom Line seems to be to take your Vit-D regularly, don’t depend on just the Sun, and keep the zinc on board too…

  17. Robby says:

    Did anyone keep the Uttar Pradesh COVID data discussed in comments above? It contradicts my memory and data currently displayed. I’ve been following it closely since Omicron came onto the scene to see if Ivermectin was as effective on that. It looks to me like it is starting up the vertical curve. Something I noticed the day after listening to Rogan’s Malone podcast, which cited Uttar Pradesh. The case rise also matches the Indian media reporting. The data might be getting manipulated or Uttar Pradesh is just late to the Omicron party. Perhaps, not testing people until they go into hospital so a bit behind developed countries. Of course, this happened just after I felt certain of Ivermectin’s benefits based largely on Utter Pradesh’s and Indonesia’s ability to crush it and keep it very low once they promulgated the use of Ivermectin.

  18. another ian says:

    What happens when you call Vitamin I “horsepaste”

    “Vaccinated and Boosted AOC Announces COVID Infection After Maskless Partying in Florida

    January 9, 2022 | Sundance | 33 Comments

    It used to be Branch Covidian heresy to admit the vaccinated and boosted members could be infected and spread COVID-19.  However, in the past month the vaccinated Covidians are the majority of those spreading the infection.”

    More at

  19. another ian says:

    For those with time to spare

    “Online Risk Calculator”

    Comments suggest that you might find “interesting things”

  20. Jack Walker says:

    Thanks for that Chief saved me a bit of work.

  21. YMMV says:

    The consensus is that vaccine effectiveness agains Omicron is low.
    The message is “it still prevents serious illness”.
    But Omicron does not do serious illness. Although there is not yet consensus as to what it does.
    And vaccines do not prevent the spread.
    My take on this is that these facts taken together amount to this: Covid vaccines are now worthless.
    It’s worse than that, we know these vaccines can cause harm. But we don’t know of future harms.

    This Dr. Campbell video shows that starting more than a year after the Spanish Flu ended, there was a massive increase in Encephalitis lethargica deaths, and those deaths continued on a high level for years, and he also lists other things that you can get after a virus. There is so much we don’t know, so don’t trust any simple solutions.

    The time has come to switch from the magic technological solution now that Covid is going to be endemic, and switch to a better public health message. That your best protection is to live healthy and have a healthy immune system. With better diet for example.

    Note the section in this video where he says that third world countries may do better against Covid because they have lots of germs and therefore a different gut biome. He says there are bacteria which protect against viruses.

  22. Paul, Somerset says:

    “There’s little doubt that Omicron is causing milder disease in the U.K., as well as in South Africa, Denmark, and many other places.

    However, what’s going on in Australia? ICU admissions have shot up as Omicron has taken hold (see above), as have deaths (see below). Bear in mind 77% of the population are double-vaccinated and it’s the middle of summer there.”

    Some more Worldometer graphs, and some big questions that need answering about vaccine effectiveness in a naive population.

    Just a personal sidebar: I woke up at 1 am this morning with that sore throat feeling. You know, not quite right, however much you try to convince yourself it is. So I boiled some water, mixed it up in a cup with a teaspoon of Cornish sea salt, left it to cool and gargled and snorted it.

    Woke up three times during the night sweating, but now, this morning, I’m perfectly fine.

    I had the same sort of experience a few months ago, and it worked then too.

    Here’s the trial which found excellent results against respiratory viruses from gargling and nasal irrigation with this simple solution. Bear in mind that the participants were only using the method when they had confirmed symptoms, rather than at first signs, as I did.

    Don’t do this all the time as a preventive though – you need those mouth bacteria. Don’t wipe them out unless you have reason to, i.e., think you’re coming down with something.

  23. Anonymous says:

    Two points.

    Swedish immunity is mostly vaccine derived. By May 2020, only 7% of population had detectable antibody levels. Come June, 2021, and this percentage grew to only ~30 among the young adults. Herd immunity startegy failed, mainly because the virus turned out to be far less infective than initially assumed.
    Compare that with over 80% of the population being vaccinated.

    South Korea, on the other hand, is a sad example of difference in effectiveness between aggressive containment and mass vaccination policies, the former being in use until mid-2021 at which point it was abandoned in favour of the latter.

  24. AC Osborn says:

    This worldwide study by Statisticians says that for most countries the Vaccines have not worked at all, not in case reduction, hospitalisations or Deaths.
    The took the period before vaccinations started for each country and computed a “Baseline”, they used that to measure if the vaccines moved the outcomes above or below the baseline.

    It is very stats heavy and looooong.

  25. AC Osborn says:

    This study on Ivermectin for treating Colon Cancer looks very promising.

  26. AC Osborn says:

    This is a good resource for studies that show Vaccines are lethal.

  27. AC Osborn says:

    I have just had 2 posts disappear in to the ether for some reason.

  28. AC Osborn says:

    And now they show up, that was wierd.

  29. jim2 says:

    Go figure …

    High levels of protective immune cells that fight some common colds also made people less likely to contract COVID-19 in a study.

    Researchers found higher levels of T cells against certain colds in people who didn’t develop COVID while living with someone who had the disease, according to a study released Monday by the U.K.’s Imperial College London. The prior illnesses were caused by other coronaviruses related to SARS-CoV-2.

  30. H.R. says:

    @A C Osborn – That guy who invented Ivermectin should get another Nobel in medicine. Colon cancer too? That would be awesome.

    We take potshots at warmunists by calling CO2, “The Miracle Molecule.” It causes everything.

    Perhaps Ivermectin can someday legitimately claim the title of “The Miracle Drug.” We may find that it cures everything.

  31. cdquarles says:

    Within the limits of those studies, the overall picture of the first suggests to me antibody dependent enhancement is occurring, ‘vaccine’ or no; and the 2nd suggests that cell mediated immunity is robust where ADE does not occur.
    I am going to look at that reference and maybe pass it on to a statistician who can do predictive statistics on that paper’s model.
    That would be nice, but I doubt Ivermectin cures everything; though we do know that macrolides are effective treatments for quite a number of diseases.

  32. cdquarles says:

    I will need a better statistician than I am to look deeper into that paper’s model; but I can say that the paper’s synthetic control will be sensitive to the control countries selected, whether by automated or by manual means. Change that, change the outcome. So, don’t be surprised if replication attempts fail and/or come to different results.

  33. cdquarles says:

    Oh, one possible confounder that does not seem to be addressed: the paper uses the reported numbers as is, it seems; so data reporting quality, which will vary from country to country and within countries for political reasons, may greatly affect the results. They do discuss reported data quality as a limitation.

    Ah, the paper screens countries by analysis p-values, so that’s an issue right there. Including all data from all countries will likely not look as scary. Add to that the model seems to be a linear regression type model; though infectious diseases follow logistic/Gompertz curves. I may be very wrong about the linear regression model comment. They do mention Gompertz and Farr’s law. Again, that coronaviruses are not necessarily local winter season viruses in the tropics and subtropics and that local outbreaks can and do occur ‘out of season’ seems to escape them.

    On the plus side, they do want to run a similar analysis where ivermectin use is reported properly.

  34. Foyle says:

    Covid kills people with comorbidities, mostly associated with being fat.

    Compare outcomes with obesity rates. USA 36%, Israel 26%, Sweden 20%, India 4%, Japan 4%

    Countries should have been emphasising weight loss and ensuring good immune system health rather than all the theatre they have engaged in (sleep, fitness, vitamins ….)

  35. beththeserf says:

    Here in Melbourne Oz, I know three young people in their twenties that came down with Omicron after New Year celebrations. All double vaxed. Two, one with low immunity problems,, (both parents died when she was 14 yrs old,) had high fevers but are recovered now.

    I, also, as one of the 10% of unvaxed, not expecting to avoid it but have been preparing myself with vitamins D and C and Quercetin.

  36. Tim says:

    Channel 9 in NSW has it sorted.

    “How should I prepare?
    If you test positive for COVID-19, it’s too late for you to go to the supermarket or chemist for supplies. So it’s a good idea to have a kit at home with a few things you may need to treat the illness. Things like paracetamol, ibuprofen, lozenges, cough syrup, and rapid tests (if you can get them) are good to have, just in case. It’s also important to have at least two weeks’ worth of any unrelated medication you may need, and books, puzzles, or other activities to keep you occupied if you need to isolate. It’s a good idea to have a COVID-19 kit at home, with things like painkillers, lozenges and rapid tests.”

    I have books, and a few puzzles. So will now need to find some other activities as well. Sigh.

  37. Tim says:

    And in the latest, seems that stocks of Paracetamol and Ibuprofen, along with other “cold and flu” remedies are now panic bought out of stock at major retailers. Who didn’t see that coming? We do love a panic buy here in Australia :-)

    (Toilet Paper too is again becoming scarce)

    Sigh, again.

  38. E.M.Smith says:


    Just OMG!

    I suppose Vit-D, Vit-A, an Vit-C are copious on the shelves, untouched, as is Quercetin…

  39. another ian says:

    “Pfizer CEO Now Admits Two Dose Vaccine Offers No Protection Against Infection or Severe Disease, Third Dose May Reduce Hospitalization
    January 10, 2022 | Sundance | 32 Comments

    In an ordinary time, this admission from the CEO of Pfizer would end all the COVID-19 rules, regulations and vaccination passport efforts. Alas, we are not in ordinary times.”

    More at

  40. Tim says:

    I’ll see what I can find on Saturday when we head into town for the weekly shop, will be interesting!

  41. another ian says:

    “The epidemic of the vaccinated”


    “Biden’s claim that this is a pandemic of the unvaxxed took a big hit this weekend”

    And might be one in moderation

  42. another ian says:

    More background

    “Project Veritas Obtains Hidden Military Documents Showing NIH Intent to Create SARS-CoV-2, Using Gain of Function Research
    January 10, 2022 | Sundance | 216 Comments

    Project Veritas has obtained military documents hidden on a classified system [HERE – and HERE – and HERE] showing how EcoHealth Alliance approached DARPA in March 2018, seeking funding to conduct gain of function research of bat borne coronaviruses.”

  43. AC Osborn says:

    cdquarles says: 10 January 2022 at 6:07 pm

    I emailed the lead guy Kyle about 2 other confounders, New Variants and the use of treatments during the trial period.

  44. AC Osborn says:

    Injectable Ivermectin to give months long prophylactic action being produced by French company MedinCell, backed by the Gates foundation.

    How things change when there is real money to be made.

  45. philjourdan says:

    Zinc and Vitamin D – my regimen.

    As for the Shortages, the woke will never buy the effective therapeutics, so that leaves ample supply for the intelligent. Forgo the woke recommended and go with what works.

  46. E.M.Smith says:


    Couple of things.

    1st up, comments taking their time to show: This usually is the result of the WordPress Servers being heavily loaded due to some peak event. At that time, the comment is received, but sits in a work queue for a bit of time until the anti-Spam filters can get to it. Once through the anti-Spam and veracity checking steps, it shows up.

    There’s also a case where it does get flagged as Spam and sits in my Spam queue until I get around to looking at it, but that was not what happened to yours. Similarly, changes of email address or IP Number put it in moderation until I approve them anew (fairly rare and not what happened here).

    2nd: That article about excess deaths that so stats heavy: Interesting article. I think it is “mostly correct”, but noticed this glaring “issue”:

    To obtain control variable data sets the authors of CausalImpact recommend utilizing similar data that did not receive the same treatment, such as a different region or country, any trend line that can closely mimic or even be constant alongside the trend line one is testing (e.g. similar data from an area with no intervention, price charts, stock prices, temperature records, etc.). As there are virtually zero countries that have been unaffected by the vaccines, finding a set of control variables is difficult, though not impossible. Ultimately, this study chose to utilize the data of four countries in Africa (Burkina Faso, Chad, DRC, South Sudan) that were chosen specifically for their low average severity indices since vaccine administration began (i.e. low levels of mandatory mask wearing, social distancing, crowd limitations, travel restrictions, etc.) and for their low vaccination rates.

    These countries in the author’s estimation best represent a “natural” progression of the virus with limited vaccine intervention on par with most other nations, making them the least likely to display problems of endogeneity while still acting as valid control groups.

    They have chosen 4 essentially sunny sub-Saharan / Saharan African nations as their baseline. Um, that’s not a good choice. I’m pretty sure folks sitting in the equatorial sun will have high Vit-D levels and that’s known to help prevent cases and deaths. These nations are also not known for their large urban centers packed with millions of people… so are already “distancing” for a lot of their population compared to, say, NYC or London. Finally, Africa in general has a much lower average age than Europe & North America, and age also correlates with severity. I think that’s a major issue.

  47. another ian says:

    “Oh darn, there goes Veritas again releasing well…… not just a smoking gun, but a rank indictment of both actors abroad (including China) and right here in the United States.”

    More at

    Mentions IVM and HCQ too

  48. DonM says:

    AC Osborn,

    Thanks for the posts.

    We’ve all seen the FDA website that says your are not a horse, Ivermectin is for horses, don’t use Ivermectin.

    Why is the NIH concerned about and posting information about CRC in horses? :)

  49. another ian says:

    Might have wrecked the market if there had been sufficient trialling before release

    “Pfizer CEO Now Admits Two Dose Vaccine Offers No Protection Against Infection or Severe Disease, Third Dose May Reduce Hospitalization
    January 10, 2022 | Sundance | 32 Comments

    In an ordinary time, this admission from the CEO of Pfizer would end all the COVID-19 rules, regulations and vaccination passport efforts. Alas, we are not in ordinary times.”

    More at

  50. cdquarles says:

    I did pass that paper reference on, and though I wasn’t the first to do so, this: was the response I expected.

  51. YMMV says:

    From a different thread (LA Port Status), Foyle says: (10 January 2022 at 7:45 pm)
    Covid kills people with comorbidities, mostly associated with being fat.
    Compare outcomes with obesity rates. USA 36%, Israel 26%, Sweden 20%, India 4%, Japan 4%

    Good point. So many factors, the problem is that it cannot ever be clear enough to persuade to cavemen in power. Which is my excuse to link this:

    Another problem is that even in the countries which allow IVM, nobody “important” has actually endorsed it. Now would be another opportunity (having missed so many previous ones) for a real trial of IVM vs the standard care. Those few of us in the know can compare our results against the big group taking the placebos (such as Paracetamol and Ibuprofen). Now that the vaccines are obsolete, it’s open season again.

    Japan has locked down because the US military were bringing it in from the bases there.

  52. YMMV says:

    cdquarles: was the response I expected.

    That was fun, watching William Briggs tear that paper apart with his teeth. blood sport.

    Executive summary: “dude” “meh”

  53. another ian says:

    “Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies – not so secure as presumed?”

  54. YMMV says:

    I know, preaching to the choir…

    They have suppressed many safe, useful treatments:
    People deficient in Vitamin D3 are 14 times more likely to get severe Covid. Why aren’t the Health Departments telling us all to get our D3 measured and why don’t they hand out free samples at every corner chemist? Vit D3 reduced hospital deaths in Turkey by 60%. Most of the sickest Covid patients in Spain were deficient in Vit A. And 42% were deficient in B6, which helps reduce cytokine storms. Think that’s an “accident”?

    Melatonin reduces deaths by maybe 90%, good old antihistamines saved nursing home patients, Iota-carageenan nasal sprays reduced infections by 80%, Mouthwashes reduce covid deaths by 80%. Asthma drug Budesonide reduces Covid hospitalization rate by 90%. Even cough syrup with Bromhexine might help.

    Indonesia cut Covid by 98% with Ivermectin while Australia grew cases 500% with Lock-n-Vax, Uttar Pradesh, India, wiped out Covid with ivermectin. In Peru, Ivermectin cut covid deaths by 75% in 6 weeks. The virus mysteriously disappeared in Japan. Can’t we copy them? Meanwhile countries that use hydroxychloroquine appear to have 80% lower Covid death rates. Maybe that matters?

    If the Health Dept cared about health, if hospitalization rates were important at all, they’d be acting differently.
    Bizarrely low dose Ivermectin still cut infections, hospitalization in half, deaths by 70%

    Researchers have claimed that the benefit from ivermectin and HCQ derive from their rather weak and indirect mechanism of action as ionophores (particularly for zinc transport). If that is indeed the source of the benefit then perhaps we should consider prophylactic use of more readily available, safe sources of zinc ionophores.
    The plant polyphenol quercetin has been recommended, but can be difficult to get and rather costly. A better source is epigallocatechin-gallate in the form of green tea extract.
    Considering the suggested effectiveness of low dose ivermectin in the Brazilian study, a cup of green tea once or twice a day might be just as effective.

    There is about 5mg of quercetin per kg of apples. Green tea extract contains about 320,000 mg of epigallocatechin per kg.
    One 500mg capsule of camellia sinensis powder would be the catechin-equivalent of about 30 kg of apples.

    Incidentally, ascorbic acid (vitamin C) and the bioflavonoid quercetin (originally labeled vitamin P) were both discovered by the same scientist — Nobel prize winner Albert Szent-Györgyi. Quercetin and vitamin C also act as an antiviral drug, effectively inactivating viruses.

    There is evidence that vitamin C and quercetin co-administration exerts a synergistic antiviral action due to overlapping antiviral and immuno-modulatory properties and the capacity of ascorbate to recycle quercetin, increasing its efficacy.

    Quercetin works best when taken with vitamin C and Bromelain, as vitamin C helps activate it and bromelain helps with the absorption.

    Bromelain is a gelatine digestive enzyme.

  55. YMMV says:

    Does IVM still work with Omicron? Yes, of course it does.

  56. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    Bitcoin was never about anonymity of transactions. It is an IMMUTABLE RECORD of EVERY transaction. That’s how blockchain works. In order to be anonymous you must take actions to assure that the bitcoin wallet (and its transaction log) is NEVER associated with you. That’s very very hard, since folks do things like “buy stuff” and that puts you, the wallet, and the transaction in front of a camera a lot of the time, or you, your cell phone, and the transaction at the same time and place (IP address) a lot of the time.

    If a dozen transactions happen to that bitcoin wallet, and each time it is at an IP address that’s either your home or your place of work (or even your favorite Starbucks) and each time your cell phone (and only yours is present for ALL of them) is pinging the nearby tower (or worse, on the Starbucks WiFi…) that’s pretty much proof you are The Guy.

    Getting the password then just becomes a matter of sitting on that IP address and putting a key logger on whatever device you use for the transaction. Not an easy hack, but as most folks are sloppy with security updates, something I’d expect a National TLA or even good LEOs to be able to do (or worst case, contract out).

    You can not hack the Bitcoin password nor created it de novo, but you can capture it from a device in use.

    Then many folks have a password manager of some sort. For those folks you would just need to hack the password manager (and many of them are not that secure…)

    FWIW, there’s always ways to hack into a computer or operating system. The whole “Game” is about finding and exploiting them for Black Hats before they are found and closed by White Hats. How long that window of time is open depends on how closely people who are not in the “Game” follow the White Hat Security Advisories & Updates (which for most people is “almost never” and “whenever the auto-update thingy does an update, maybe”).

    So those issues are the reasons (mostly) why I’ve never used Bitcoin nor like the idea of cryptocurrency.

    1) Permanent log of transactions. Both a privacy issue and a processing issue as the log length continues to grow.

    2) Not anonymous if you are a normal person doing normal things.

    3) Not secure if you are a normal person with Microsoft or rarely updated other OS.

    4) Lose your password, all your bitcoin are forever lost from the pool as they are no longer available for use, ever. Same thing if you lose the device your “wallet” is on. Have a disk die, hasta la vista Bitcoins… (So a backup becomes even more critical, but I’m not sure how out of date your wallet can be and still be usable with the Bitcoin processes; and shoving your “wallet” onto a cloud backup every few hours is an open invitation to Law Enforcement to match it to YOU.)

    There are ways to address those shortcomings but most of them involve doing un-normal things that most folks will not do (and I don’t want to do…), like using burner phones, disguises when buying devices, pay for devices with cash only, constantly changing IP where you use the Wallet, leaving your phone off (or at home) whenever your wallet is near it (and never the two the same device), “Anonymizing” the device (removing things like device unique number in the OS [guess why it is there…], list of WiFi networks it has seen, turn off geolocation, scrub history, change MEID or MAC address regularly), etc.

    Behave like a normal person (or even a modestly tech guy buy not perfect) and you are hackable. Then so are your Bitcoins. Given enough time.

  57. E.M.Smith says:


    Nice link to the ivermectin story. I agree with the author that Regulatory Capture has happened and that the various government “Health Agencies” are now basically Publicity & Legal Cover for Big Pharma and cash register for Government Lackeys On The Take (even if under cover of bad law).

    Per Low Dose:

    It was fascinating to watch the dose / regimen evolve. Initially in India a Very Low Dose used only 1 time a MONTH was having something like 75% prevention. The FLCCC upped the schedule to every 2 weeks and a more normal dose size and got something like 95% efficacy as prophylaxis. Then they kept the same dose and went to 1 / week and got 100%.

    Given the drug 1/2 life, a single dose of recommended size is approaching zero in the blood at about 12 days, so a 14 day dosing interval has 2 “open” days. Yet still for almost everyone it worked fine. Cut that to 7 days and you always have some amount of it “on board” and the virus just doesn’t get a chance to move in.

    I’ve gone on “Road Trips” where I’ve dosed up before leaving and was gone for 14-ish days. (Airlines don’t like you traveling with a bottle of blue liquid…) and still had No Problem. On one, at about day 14, I bought a bottle of Quercetin and did the Q+Zn thing just in case… Yup, having alternatives is a very nice thing.

    I first had the red flag go up when The Left went Bat Shit Crazy over Trump saying the Hydroxychloroquine word. I knew he had been told about it by an M.D. (as he is not medically clueful). Sometime later found out it was via Dr. Zelenko and the NYC Jewish community he was treating successfully. That is what sent me down the path of looking at anti-virals and doing that investigation. A big “Dig Here!” red flag on the left…

    That was the first one. Now? Now we’re up somewhere around 30 treatments / preventatives that work to various degrees, some of them spectacularly. Things like M.D.s reporting zero of their patients going to ICU and very low admission rates to hospital. I’ll take a track record over a buggered double blind study any day. (Things like giving a zinc ionophore without the zinc is buggered by design. Ditto giving a replication blocker after replication is complete and when you are in the cytokine storm phase.)

    When you have 100% of working therapeutics being banned, talked down, and suppressed with threats to licences; and you have ONE failed approach that causes sickness and death being promoted (and collecting $Billions…): It is pretty obvious that the Agencies and Big Pharma are NOT your friends and are NOT speaking truth and DO want you harm you for money.

    The complete lack of criminal proceedings against any / all of these charlatans globally says that global governance is now largely GEB captured and fraudulent. It’s nothing more than a criminal enterprise. The Mafia ought to sue them for trademark infringement and abuse under color of authority… /sarc;

  58. another ian says:

    “Covid Tyranny: Near the Beginning of the End?”

    “Now the World Health Organization has waved the white flag on Covid vaccine boosters too.

    WHO released a statement about Covid vaccines yesterday. It’s filled with the usual public health jargon and ass-covering, but one line stands out:

    a vaccination strategy based on repeated booster doses of the original vaccine composition is unlikely to be appropriate or sustainable.

    It’s over, people.”


    Saw a comment elsewhere that Pfizer is trying to use copyright to kill their CEO’s comment on the lack of effectiveness of “vaccines”

  59. AC Osborn says:

    Can this document be real?

    If it is it is a massive indictment of the US government employees showing they were complicit in the unnecessary deaths of 100s of thousands.

  60. another ian says:

    A whole new idea!

    January 13, 2022 at 7:16 pm · Reply
    I’m aghast.

    A media organization with some self awareness and humility. Not an Australian one of course.

  61. another ian says:

    A new idea!

    January 13, 2022 at 7:16 pm · Reply
    I’m aghast.

    A media organization with some self awareness and humility. Not an Australian one of course.


  62. watersider says:

    Our Great Chief,
    As usual great stuff on here.
    Was wondering if you could find time to look at
    I am useless at doing links, but found that article as scary as it is believable.
    The one thing I live by is the saying of Claude Cockburn “I believe nothing until it has been officially denied”
    Dr Faustus – sorry – Fauchi should be hanged drawn and quartered.

  63. E.M.Smith says:


    It’s about what I’d expect.

    There’s a conundrum / dilemma in “security”. To protect, you have to know what the Bad Guys can do. To do that, you need to do what the Bad Guys will do before they do it so you know how to stop it. But doing that is essentially acting like a Bad Guy. (So you do it in a ‘sand box’ or ‘toy world’).

    This is true for White Hat hackers who spend their days cracking into systems (that they are authorized to attack) so they know where there are vulnerabilities to block to prevent Black Hats. When you fail to find (and patch) a vulnerability before a Black Hat finds it, that is called a “Zero Day” exposure. Because you have Zero Days to figure out how to stop it. Those are the worst with the most damage.

    The same basic problem exists in biological and chemical warfare. Just ignore the whole field and do nothing, the first time you find out you are being attacked with it is the day your army dies. So you need some kind of White Hat CBNW operation to develop defenses against Chemical, Biological, and Nuclear warfare. That involves figuring out what species of biology and what techniques of biochemistry can be weaponized, then making defenses against them. Ditto chemical agents and nuclear materials.

    So in the end, you are mostly just trusting that the folks figuring out what can be made into a weapon do not make it into a weapon. They just do “proof of concept” then work up a defeat for it.

    Is it legal? Is it moral? I don’t know.

    The legality depends on complicated laws that a hoard of lawyers will argue over for years. The morality depends on your moral compass.

    About the only things you can say for sure is that:

    Someone on The Other Side is developing CBNW weapons and if you don’t have a defense, you and your armies will die suddenly one day. Having that defense most likely will cause the weapons to not be used.

    Creating those defenses involves many of the same steps as making those weapons, but stops short of building a lot of “devices” or delivery systems. This will cause the folks on The Other Side to do the same if they find out (if they are not already…); but they will almost certainly be doing it anyway even if they don’t find out, on the assumption your operation is too well hidden to see.

    There is no good answer.
    Evil exists and it sucks.

  64. E.M.Smith says:

    from that last Another Ian other links:

    I’d not want to be the Pfizer guy on this info support call…

    Nothing we don’t already know, but 45 minutes of ducking questions and obfuscating… starts very slow but hots up near the end.

  65. YMMV says:

    “So in the end, you are mostly just trusting”

    In general, the world works better with trust. Capitalism and democracy in particular; it works by trusting that people will do what they say, whether it is a contract or a law. If there is a non-nuclear weapons treaty or a non-biological weapons treaty or a treaty establishing borders, you have to have some degree of trust that the other side will follow through.

    But trust is based on morality, having some morality in common. The bad guys, the evil ones, don’t share our morality. As in the movies, the bad guy tortures someone for information, saying if he gets the information, he is free to go. Then we he gets the information, he kills him. Believable, right?

    In past times, we didn’t need to lock our houses, and people didn’t break glass to steal things, even though they could. What changed? The common morality. That was something that took ages to build up, and there is no quick way to get it back. There is no build back better.

  66. H.R. says:

    watersider: “The one thing I live by is the saying of Claude Cockburn “I believe nothing until it has been officially denied””

    It’s an intelligence test: The brighter you are, the sooner you understand that.

    I’m no rocket scientist, nor am I face down drooling into my Cream of Wheat, but I did cotton on to that a few years ago.

    I am “Smarter than the average bear, but not as smart as Wile E. Coyote, Genius.” 😜 OK. Maybe I am.

    Politicians are dumber than a box of hammers and are totally transparent. The hard thing to figure out is who is pulling their strings?

  67. E.M.Smith says:


    Lately a fair number of $Billionaires have outed themselves as sting pullers. Soros and his NGOs big time. Gates & his foundation. A few others. A few nations have started tossing them out. Schwab and his “you will own nothing” having pointed at the UN and ANYONE signing “treaties” with it as complicit at best, pocket lining almost certainly, and Evil GGEBs most likely. {Government, Globalist, …} Greedy Evil Bastards.

    A whole lot more people know now that the UN, Pfizer (and all Big Pharma), and Government Agencies are all corrupt and under the thumb of Players (many of whom are outed now).

    The way Congress Critters have been willing to blatantly Lie Like A Rug and attempt a Socialust Coup by media has exposed a lot more. Plus the Captured Media have been plummeting (CNN under 1 M viewers in Prime Time!?) shows a whole lot of Just Folks have figured it out…

    So we wait and watch for the Starters Gun to announce the next phase of the race to freedom…

  68. another ian says:

    “The worst scandal in history”

  69. another ian says:

    That was The Matt Walsh Show
    Still shows if I use ” ” but ? for how long

  70. Ossqss says:

    Heat pump issue? Mine stops when it gets below 45F on the house and the electric heat strip kicks on. Interesting to find the translation somewhere in this from others. I would say I did have similar issues when the heater core broke on my old ICE in Pittsburgh during Winter. That was a very old car however, not new fancy Schmansy EV. It will be interesting how this weekend’s weather impacts such over the next few days winter weather that will be making headlines soon. Just sayin>

  71. Ossqss says:

    I don’t know why, but this seems appropriate. LOL

  72. E.M.Smith says:


    Heat Pumps get less efficient the colder it gets outside. Basically it is running a refrigerator backwards. The “hot coils” on the back of the ‘fridge being your heater and the cold side stuck out in the frozen outdoors. It’s hard to pump significant heat up-hill from -20 C or -40 C into a house (or car) so usually the Heat Pump part shuts off at some temperature where that unit becomes inefficient and just swaps over to Electric Heat usually from a resistance heater of some kind.

    The story says that there’s a mechanical failure of the heat pumps (and given that all of the Teslas in a given area don’t all fail at The Magic Temperature, I’d tend to agree) and only on some models. OK, running with that: We all know that the A/C is one of the more temperamental parts of the typical car. SO an A/C run backwards as a heat pump is likely just as issue prone. I’d further guess that at -20 C or colder the gear is just not able to handle that cold. Lubricants get gooey and thick, metals become brittle, rubbers stiffen and can crack.

    So I’d say your house is swapping to resistance heating to save money at inefficient temperatures and the Tesla just has a mechanical system that fails at very low temperatures…

    Oh, and remember that the fancy recessed door handles get glued down (so you can’t get in or out of the car) when iced up…

    Just another car designed in Sunny California that’s not well matched to anywhere that does “below zero” temperatures…

  73. watersider says:

    Thank you Chiefio for your great analysis.
    All I can say is ‘my head hurts’

  74. Rienk says:

    14 January 2022 at 5:09 am

    45 degrees seems high to me. Either your heatpump is to small or it should likely be set lower.
    for an example..(plus comments)

  75. cdquarles says:

    Not necessarily. Heat pumps around here start switching over around 45F, and only partially. My old house had two combined HVAC units. One gas furnace, one regular A/C and a big dual unit reversible that was an A/C when warm and a heat pump when cold. During the Blizzard of ’93, with near 0F lows and upper teens to low 20sF highs, I really did need both units, plus the ‘decorative’ fireplace. It also used its resistance element to defrost the coils when ice was sensed.

  76. Ossqss says:


    Interesting article. I think the units we have are balanced for Florida heat and humidity cooling loads, since that is what it will be doing most of the time. I don’t adjust anything, and the service guys have always said they are set to roll to the heat strip when it gets below 45f. I always do an emergency heat strip test when it gets to Winter down here, so I don’t awake to the smell of dust burning in the middle of the night anymore :-)

    Per the article ” Now, you’ve also got to balance your heating capacity with your cooling needs, and especially in a humid climate, cooling loads generally determine the size of heat pump you install and thus where the balance point will be. “

  77. another ian says:

    “Seismic shift: “Omicron breaks the rules”. The case rates are lowest in unvaxxed in Scotland. Double vaxxed most likely to go to hospital

    Global leaders must be sweating”

  78. philjourdan says:

    @EM – I have not liked Crypto Currency for a simpler reason. If I die and my wife cannot find my password, it is lost!

    And that is a real concern. A friend lost her husband, and while there is no question about their marriage, it took about 6 months for her to gain access to some accounts (real, not imaginary like Bitcoin) that he had not added her to (I immediately added my wife to all of mine……I wonder why the food now as that arsenic tang to it?????)

    Seriously, when I die, whether suddenly or expected, I do not want her to be fishing around in trash bins looking for codes. Or mistakenly tossing out a laptop that contains them.

    And Crypto’s value is all on what you impart to it (you being the plural you, as in those with it). Once that is gone, so is the value.

  79. philjourdan says:


    Politicians are dumber than a box of hammers and are totally transparent. The hard thing to figure out is who is pulling their strings?

    Yes, but they are smarter than most voters, unfortunately.

  80. philjourdan says:

    @Ossqss – re: Heat pump

    It is well advertised that they do not work north of the Mason/Dixon line (a confederate comspiracy) because they only work within a narrow range of temperature differential. I am south of that line, but once the temp falls below about 35, the electric kicks in. Fortunately, for now, I am not in a democrat stronghold so my Electricity is powered by coal and reasonable. And the days the temp falls that low are manageable.

    NE is going to freeze their a$$es off because they are idiots.

  81. philjourdan says:

    @Ossqss- The 3 Stooges is ALWAYS appropriate!

  82. Ossqss says:

    For the record, I run a Trane 5-ton, 16 SEER, 2 stage unit that has a variable speed air handler. The Air handler coil is now aluminum.

    My prior unit was a 14 SEER 5 ton and worked fine until the handler leaked. Oh, the EPA would not let me just replace the handler as it has to have paired components. Friggin establishment pukes!

    So, I had to upgrade to a new system, instead of spending 1/6th the cost for a handler coil.

    Side note: If you get an aluminum coil, and you probably will with any new ones, get the Parts and Labor warranty. I been through 3 coils that have leaked in 5 years. Just sayin>> We had this discussion on potential and electrolysis with differing metals in such a couple years back IIRC>

  83. Ossqss says:

    Ok, I need some help here. Our NIH director? WT*!

  84. Ossqss says:

    I apologize in advance, but couldn’t stop the mouse> :-)

  85. philjourdan says:

    @Ossqss – no need to apologize. I had seen that mix before, And it is quite good. Sometimes a blending of old and new works well, and this one does.

  86. Rienk says:

    14 January 2022 at 5:06 pm

    Sorry for answering late. I assumed a heatpump, not a full hvac system. And a heatpump has good efficiency from wel below freezing to room temperature. Hence the article. Of course around 32 fahrenheit (a bit above) the input coil would freeze shut in a humid environment but that’s still at quite a bit lower temperature than 45 degrees. And dealt with by an auto defrost system, not a reason for shutdown.

    I latched on to your message because of the 45 degrees. I had heard a story about a manufacturer of hybrid (heatpump/natural gas backup) heaters that set the switch over temp too high. Resulting in both a more expenpensive installation and higher energy costs. Making the whole exercise futile.

  87. E.M.Smith says:

    Per heat pump tuning:

    Looks like it isn’t just “a number” chosen based on heat pump capacity. This article makes a sample graph of heat demand from the house vs heat supply from the heat pump and finds the “balance point” where the swap to backup heating happens. It particularly mentions humid environments (but without enough detail, IMHO).

    Now, you’ve also got to balance your heating capacity with your cooling needs, and especially in a humid climate, cooling loads generally determine the size of heat pump you install and thus where the balance point will be.

    The key bits seem to be that a heat pump is sized for the 99% of days not the 1% of very cold days, so as to run the smallest most efficient unit reasonable for a given place and structure. It also depends on the cost of the backup heat supply (i.e. expensive California electricity, cheap Florida electricity, cheaper Texas natural gas…).

    Near as I can tell, part of the humidity issue is condensation on the cold side (so if the outside air is 45 F and 100% humidity, and you are running your coils at below freezing to extract the heat from it, you will get icing of the coils that might require more power to prevent) while another part is the need to remove humidity inside the house (not sure how that gets done other than changing RH just by heating the air… do Florida homes run a condenser when heating? Yeah, always been in low humidity California when dealing with HVAC)

    But their statement makes it sound like the Heat Pump is also the A/C (Does it run both directions? Would make sense…) so gets sized for summer heat & humidity and is then too big to be efficient for winter (near nothing) heating loads? That’s my guess anyway.

    FWIW, I once looked at an apartment in Los Angeles. The “heater” was an “in the wall” resistance heater about 1 foot x 1 foot. About 1 kW I’d guess. Maybe 2 max. The person showing the apartment, when I asked, said something like “Oh, yeah, that’s more than enough. I rarely ever use mine at all.” AC needs to be big, heat nearly nothing. So would you run a heat pump there? Not seeing the benefit… Now generalize to where it’s more humid…

    This one has a balance point calculator with a sample balance point chart at 38 F:

    Don’t know where you will get the values to plug into it for BTU demand of the structure at various temperatures and / or the heat pump values, but you could play with it anyway ;-) I don’t see any humidity entry, so I think that’s just an orthogonal issue from Cooling Size when you use the same heat pump for both. (i.e. it makes for a bigger heat pump when doing AC due to all the moisture it must condense and dump, that then makes those values for heat pump capacity big in this calculator?)

    So anyway, “balance point” isn’t just “A Number” based on the max low temp at which a heat pump can function, per what I’ve found.

  88. E.M.Smith says:

    Looking at the heat pump balance point graph here:

    Something about having it as gentle curves and a 3-D presentation caused a penny to drop:

    In hot humid climates, insulation will often be a lot less than you find in Boise Idaho… so building losses will be much greater at any given temperature (slide the net building heat loss curve to the right, moving the ‘balance point’ temperature higher with it) while the heat pump needed most of the year will tend to be smaller just because there isn’t much cold weather (slide the heat pump capacity down, also moving the balance point to the right or higher). Note: This presumes the heat pump is not also used for the A/C needs in blazing hot summers…

    So for a home with modest insulation and a small heat pump (separate big A/C) you would expect a fairly high balance point and that would be OK, since rarely would you get that cold anyway.

    To the extent it is a new home with a LOT of insulation, and uses a very large heat pump that is also the summer AC unit, the balance point would be lower (rather like in the cold north) BUT at some point the power needed to just start up and run the heat pump could exceed the trivial heating needed. Having a 5 HP motor running outdoors could easily be dumping more total heat outside and consuming more electricity than just having 1 kW of resistance heat come on inside.

    Interesting problem ;-)

    Looks to me like optimal in a generally hot humid place is a big stand alone AC, coupled with a small heat pump and a gas heater, though minimum capital cost would leave out the heat pump altogether as rarely saving any gas ;-)

  89. YMMV says:


    So, from a cooling perspective, minus a few technical details, heat pumps and air conditioners are essentially the same when operating in cooling mode, with no significant difference in operation, efficiency, or energy costs.

    In heating mode, your choice depends on temperature and the cost of available fuels.

    Although a heat pump can heat a home, when outside temperatures drop below freezing, the efficiency of a heat pump is affected as the unit requires more energy to maintain warm temperatures inside the home. Typical heat pump systems have an auxiliary electric heater added to the indoor unit to add supplemental heat when outdoor temperatures drop. However because electric auxiliary heating Is not very efficient, the addition of a furnace can be a solution to this problem, creating a system that relies on the heat pump as the primary heat source but automatically switches to the furnace when appropriate.


    However, due to the higher initial cost for the heat pump unit, a hybrid system may be more expensive than a more commonly paired system of an air conditioner and furnace.

    So, the more tricky question is energy futures. The cost of electricity is going to sky-rocket.
    Fossil fuels will be taxed to death and strangled just to make sure they are dead. Move to a warm climate.
    The other technology that rarely gets mentioned is solar-heated water. Very common in other parts of the world. It has a higher efficiency than PV panels.

  90. E.M.Smith says:


    Um, “move to a moderate climate” might be better phrasing. Yes “warm” is not Mojave Desert, but folks often think that way. High AC costs will be as brutal as high gas prices.

    FWIW, that’s part of why so many folks continue to stay in / move to California. In the coastal and many valley areas, you can get a nearly ideal year round climate. We typically have an open window or two year round and don’t really need A/C almost all year. Right now, the front door is open as is the window in my room. A nice gentle breeze clearing the house. I’d guess outside at about 71 F. (UPDATE: App on spousal phone reports 66 F – but warmer in the house from ‘waste heat” from appliances and lights)

    Florida is almost as good except for the summer humidity and mid-day heat. I’m happy with that in exchange for sane government;..

    So how to fuel your lifestyle? I’d love to have a wood lot and a wood stove. I can make biodiesel from food oils if prices get too high, so transportation is covered. Electricity? Well, I hate to say it, but owning your own solar panels is becoming a good idea… (You ought to be able to buy nuclear or coal electrons at about 7 ¢ / kW-hr, but that’s being destroyed on the Green Altar so with it going to 39 ¢ / kW-hr in parts of California, DIY is becoming economical.

    Frankly, had I a big wood lot, I’d be tempted to try wood fired steam and a dynamo ;-)

    Oh, and I think both California and Florida require solar heat for swimming pools… or it might just be common in Florida as it is insanely cost effective.

  91. E.M.Smith says:

    “oh” #2:

    It is almost cost effective to run your own Diesel generator using off road (untaxed) Diesel. It is cost effective at the higher tiers to run your own Natural Gas generator, and it has been very much cost effective to run a “co-gen” system for combined heat and electricity. Only reason more folks are not doing it is the high initial capital cost and that most homes already own other capital stock.

    A Capstone system is in use at a nearby school for swimming pool heat and 30 kW of electricity. They essentially get the electricity for “free” as they were burning the gas to heat the pool anyway.

    What I’d like to get on my home “someday”:

  92. Ossqss says:

    @EM, there is no requirement for Solar anything here in Florida. I for one will never poke holes in my roof again for a pool that stays around 84 on its own 3/4 of a year. Electric heaters are quite popular, as are NG gas if you have it, as they are mostly only needed for folks in the Winter if they want a warm pool for a period of time. The evaporative cooling in the Winter works quite fast here after a frontal system. A foggy pool cage area is not uncommon :-)

    With a pool blanket in the Winter, I can manage around the same temp as Summer, but have abandoned it in the last few years. PITA to clean it off this time of year and store it again. All the pollen and dirt in the air aggregates quickly and you can’t vac a 20’x40′ sheet of plastic packing type material while on the pool. Then it rains. Doh!

  93. E.M.Smith says:

    F.F. had pool solar (as did many in his community) so I wasn’t sure. All exterior surface mount pipes. I think it was mostly used for the hot tub / warm pool part. Water entered there then spilled over a wall into the rest of the pool. Nice effect ;-)

    Personally, I’d use gas if at all available and reasonably priced.

    One friend in California built black tile stripes into his pool. Worked too well in summer as the pool got to about 95 F… Good idea but needs some kind of control added. I thought black rubber squares like kitchen floor pads might do well. Just toss them in as weather cools, take some out if too warm.

  94. YMMV says:


    Positive coronavirus cases in the United Kingdom will no longer be required to self-isolate under the government’s plans to learn to live with the virus.
    Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to scrap legal requirements including self isolation, close contact rules and wearing face masks in certain settings in the coming weeks, The Telegraph has reported.

    Ministers and public health officials will still provide guidance on how the public can behave while navigating daily life but fines or legal punishment will likely not be enforced.

    Not even a promise at this point, but you take what you can get.

    Regarding heating, a wood fire is by far the best heat source, from a personal enjoyment point of view. It is a lot of work, and it is likely to be banned (in the places where it is still allowed).

    Solar PV panels are a good thing, if not done to excess. Like a photo in the LA Times showing “Westlands Solar Park in the San Joaquin Valley, which is being built on retired farmland.”
    retired farmland, yeah right.

    But after Jan 27, solar PV will just be a good thing and not a gravy train, according to proposed grid connection changes.

  95. E.M.Smith says:


    Oh Boy! That’s a start! We’ve got a couple of States saying “Get over it and get back to life”. Add the UK and it’s a pretty good start back down Freedom Road.

    Per California PUC:

    Looks like the “Sell Tesla Powerwalls” bill ;-)

    So they’ve realized they have hit the Max Solar that they can do without complete grid collapse (only the occasional destabilizing load shedding events we’ve had…) and must add storage of fail catastrophically. Well, that’s an improvement I guess.

    The costs are eyewatering…
    Note that the LOW tier is higher than in many parts of the country using coal & nuclear:

    In Edison territory, they’d pay 48 cents per kilowatt-hour on summer weekday evenings, compared to 19 cents on winter mornings.

    Almost $1/2 / kW hour summer weekday evenings when AC is most needed. That’s equivalent to running a Honda Diesel Generator on $4.80 / gallon Diesel. Minus road taxes you ought to be able to get off-road Diesel for that price or less. I think I’d just put in a standby Diesel or Natural Gas generator and use it in summer for the AC… Then have it for emergencies year round… or for the next rate hike…

    I expect to be gone before any such TOD Rate Plan is forced on us here, but if not, I don’t think I’ll worry about it. We rarely need AC, and I’m happy to cook on non-electric stoves. When our electric stove failed, and was out of action for a few months, I easily swapped over to nominally “camping stoves”. Most of our electricity goes either to the AEK (All Electric Kitchen) or in winter to the furnace blower motor and “oil filled electric” heaters when we just heat one or two rooms. As winter will be “off peak”, no worries.

    I know I can get 1 kW and maybe even 2 kW alternators added to trucks (for field construction power). It might be fun to put a 1 kW on the old Diesel car and see what the $/kW works out to. Manual transmission in neutral is very low drag, and the engine at low power is very efficient.

    Make a self portable power station out of it…

    But I’d rather get an RV with a built in Diesel generator and just call it done.

    The Boat has wind and solar aboard along with a 100 A alternator on the Diesel, so it can “self support” if shore power gets expensive. But I doubt that it will. Florida isn’t as stupid as California.

    Oh Well, not my problem anymore. I’m committed to being “outta here” inside 3 months (hopefully 1.5 or maybe even less). As soon as the spouse is done with P.T. and self sufficient / mobile.

  96. YMMV says:

    A picture is worth a thousand words. Sometimes more, sometimes less.
    I mentioned this one from the LA TImes. Nothing new or unique. I just like it. (if this crazy URL works)

    caption: “Westlands Solar Park in the San Joaquin Valley, which is being built on retired farmland.(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)”

    It’s that “retired farmland” bit that gets me.

    The message it sends is “what’s more important, renewable energy, or food?”

    In the UK, some farm land is getting early retirement.

    Homeowners and farmers are being threatened with having their land effectively confiscated to make way for solar farms to meet Britain’s net zero target, The Telegraph can disclose.

    Energy firm Sunnica has submitted plans to build a 2,792 acre solar farm and energy storage infrastructure on the Suffolk and Cambridgeshire borders.

  97. Paul, Somerset says:

    Technical point: regarding corona rules, Johnson and his government only act for England, not the UK as a whole.

    Wales, Scotland and N Ireland have their own tinpot elected assemblies, which make their own rules. None of them even relaxed their mask rules the way England did in July. In all three places the rules have been way harsher than England’s, especially for the last month, with hospitality and sporting events restricted and vaccine-passes widely enforced. Inevitably their case rates have been way higher during that time too too.

  98. E.M.Smith says:

    @Paul, Somerset:

    Dr. John Campbell has a video up that discusses that. Scotland with tight rules way higher case rates than England. Looks like the “protections” are actually “virus spread enhancers”…

    I think I’ll put up a posting with that one and a couple other of his videos… Give me about an hour to get it done ;-)

  99. E.M.Smith says:

    Hmmm… may take longer…Wordpress is not opening a window to add a new posting. I’ve seen this before and I think it is part of the Load Shedding in times of high demand. Folks tend to not miss the new page that didn’t go up; but complain if the current page doesn’t load or won’t take their comment…

    I’ll give it a little while and try again.

  100. H.R. says:

    @Paul, Somerset – Hmmm… not just the data you provided, but also coming from other countries, it seems to me that masks, ‘vaccines’, and lockdowns cause Covid.

    (Tough call. Do I put a winky on this one or not? Oh, okay… 😜)

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