In the last W.O.O.D., Another Ian posted a link to a Richardson Post article about Europe in general and the UK in particular “mobilizing” for war, and how that is likely to start World War III (which they called World War Woke). It then disparages the “leaders” of the west as woke ninnies that have no clue what real war is like, or that it is fought and won by the “hard men” they despise.
Which points to:
In an earlier posting, I pointed out the importance of oil to running a mechanized modern economy. Well, it is also essential to running a modern mechanized military:
All those jet airplanes, fighters, bombers, cargo and troop carriers all run on Kerosene. All the Ships At Sea that carry goods, troops, material, bombs, bullets, tanks and trucks to a European Land War from the USA or from the UK also run on Diesel, another middle distillate. Once in battle, the armored troop carriers, tanks, howitzer tow vehicles, self mobile howitzers, radar trucks, missile launchers and every other thing that moves on the battle field (other than a soldier on foot) is also powered by oil. (Almost all of it middle distillates – kerosene / diesel) Even the electricity to light the camps and charge the smaller electric drones is made with portable Diesel Generators.
How are meals cooked? Over fuel driven stoves. Fuel made from oil.
My simple questions is this: With who’s oil will World War Woke be fought?
Europe was using a lot of Russian oil, but that would be instantly shut off in WWW. There’s not enough domestic European production to run their economy, never mind a full on war on top of it.
The USA supply has been crippled by our pResident Idiot In Chief, Biden. To the point where many Truck Stops are limiting truckers to a max of 60 gallons to a fill up.
From last November:
Diesel Fuel Shortage – Truck Stops Limiting Fuel
Several reports have stated that truck stops in many areas of the United States are beginning to ration diesel fuel to help with the fuel shortage. Many truck stops in the United States’ southwest region are only allowing drivers a 60-gallon limit when fueling. If you are a driver yourself, you know that 60 gallons is not much. 60 gallons in a semi-truck is about half of the fuel capacity. When a truck is loaded to about 80,000 pounds, the truck could be getting about 6.5 – 7.5 MPG. So, this means a loaded truck can get about 420 miles on 60 gallons of fuel.
Gas Stations Limiting Gas
As of November 8, 2021 – below is a list of truck stops that are limiting fuel diesel fill-ups:
Petro – Eloy, ArizonaPetro – Kingman, ArizonaTA – Tonopah, ArizonaTA – Wilcox, ArizonaTA – Holbrook, Arizona – an alternative gas station us Petro Milan, New Mexico, I-40, Exit 79TA – Eloy, ArizonaTA – Kingman, ArizonaTA – Gallup, New Mexico – an alternative gas station use Petro Milan, I-40, Exit 79TA – Santa Rosa, New Mexico – an alternative gas station use TA Albuquerque, I-40, Exit 159A (east) or 159D (west), I-25 Exit 225 (north) or 227 (south)TA – Moriarty, New Mexico – an alternative gas station use TA Albuquerque, I-40, Exit 159A (east) or 159D (west), I-25 Exit 225 (north) or 227 (south)TA – Las Vegas, NevadaPetro – North Las Vegas, NevadaFJP – Circleville, OhioFJP – Chillicothe, OhioFJP – Columbus, OhioFJP – London, Ohio
While this situation can change, we expect diesel fuel shortages to be resolved. Before hitting the road, be sure to pre-plan your trip around available fueling stations.
Got a little better in May:
Top Truck Stop Love’s Is ‘Monitoring’ Diesel Supplies Amid Shortage Fears
Provided by Dow Jones
May 11, 2022 8:07 PM EDT
By Dan Molinski
One of the U.S.’s largest truck stops, Love’s, said Wednesday it is closely watching its diesel fuel supplies in the Northeast amid growing concerns of industry-wide shortages, but said it has no plans to limit purchases.
But now is getting worse, in several ways, again:
A Diesel Fuel Shortage Storm on Top of Record High Prices – Part 2
June 24, 2022
Another development has surfaced in the diesel fuel shortage story that could evolve into a near-term disaster in a supply chain that’s already in a state of crisis. The issue is an additive package shortage for diesel engine oil lubricants that are manufactured in the refining industry. Wholesale distributors of diesel engine oil have already begun to ration supply through delivery requests.
Truckers warn skyrocketing diesel prices are making US supply-chain and trucking industry unsustainable… “‘If something drastic doesn’t change in the next few weeks/months, I promise you, you’ll see empty shelves everywhere you look,’ Smith wrote in a post that was shared nearly 290,000 times. ‘You’ll see chaos as people fight for the basic necessities of everyday life.’” – Business Insider, Jun. 10
Before diving into diesel engine oil, there’s another variable in the supply chain that’s multiplying shortages across the board. After two years of failed negotiations between the unions and the railroad industry, workers are threatening to go on strike this summer when the rail industry is already experiencing a labor shortage and capacity issues. Diesel fuel and diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) deliveries by rail were recently reduced by 50% on the Union Pacific rail system.
Crisis On The Rails: Pilot Flying J CEO on Rail Mandates & Fuel Costs… “The ongoing ‘crisis on the rails’ has paralyzed farmers, leaving them literally ‘hours away from depopulating herds.’ The rail crisis, which is ‘harming the nation’s economy,’ impacts the supply chain of U.S. agriculture, energy, and shipping across the board. To address the severe situation, the Surface Transportation Board (STB) held a hearing in late April, giving those affected the opportunity to speak. Pilot Flying J CEO Shameek Konar spent his time during the extensive testimony revealing the unprecedented difficulties his company faces following unheard-of restrictions imposed by Union Pacific Railways.” – UndercoverDC, May 31
Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF) shortage means some diesel users will be paying more… “The main component of DEF is a chemical compound called urea, a byproduct of industrial ammonia production. Russia exports the most urea. It is engaged in war with Ukraine… ‘We haven’t experienced (shortages) much here in the Midwest, but things do trickle,’ Poole said. ‘The coastal cities have probably experienced it more than we have, but it starts there, then hones in here.’” – KYTV, Jun. 11
Mediation fails at railroad talks, Biden likely to appoint Emergency Board… “After two years of fruitless negotiations railroad contract talks remain at an impasse and will soon require President Biden to intervene by appointing a Presidential Emergency Board. The negotiations are currently being mediated by the National Mediation Board (NMB), which stated Tuesday that mediation had reached a dead end. The contract talks involve approximately 140,000 railroad workers who are members of 13 rail unions. These unions have stated that they will not accept binding arbitration, which is normally the next step in the contract process, where both parties submit to the determination of a supposedly neutral federal third party.” – WSWS, Jun. 17
CN confirms IBEW members are on strike… “Canadian railway CN says operations are continuing after members of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) went on strike Saturday.” – Freight Waves, Jun. 20
Weekly U.S. Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil (109,709 Barrels) – EIA, Jun. 10
At 42 gallons per oil bbl, that’s about 4.608 Million gallons. At about 100 gallons / tank and two tanks About enough to fill up about 23,000 18 wheeler trucks ONE TIME ONLY. There are about 5 million trucks in use in the USA, so our inventory is enough to fill up about 0.4% of them. We are not going to fuel anything much from inventory. It is all “make as needed”.
So the USA can’t even keep our commercial trucking supplied with Diesel Oil, motor oil, and DEF for the smog system (that will administratively shut down the engine when you run out).
Then Usurper Biden is busy emptying our Strategic Oil Reserve and shipping it to China, so we’ll not have anywhere near enough to handle any oil disruption should a real emergency arrive. (OTOH, Biden’s Owners in China will be happy and have plenty of oil for the invasion of Taiwan).
So not seeing how the USA is going to produce the oil needed to run even our own Military, with no way we can cover the needs of the other NATO members.
So With Who’s Oil?
The way I see it, as soon as NATO starts any kind of dust-up with Russia, the Russian oil and gas spigots get turned to OFF.
Europe has an immediate crashing of their economies, farming, shipping, trucking everything that depends on oil and gas to run. France will still have some electricity for lighting, but where will they get motor fuels?
Germany is already on Coal Life Support for their basic industries at a 40% Russian natural gas level. What happens at ZERO and ZERO oil, eh?
With Europe nearly instantly back at W.W.I level of fuel supplies, how will a modern mechanized military operate? IMHO, it won’t.
Now figure that Russia is not dumb. So first thing they would do is take out the pipelines, docks and shipping that brings in any oil & fuels. Knock out the power and fuels, your enemy surrenders. The USA won’t have any extra fuel to deliver anyway, but this also prevents sharing the pain via US fuel deliveries.
Then comes Step Two:
Russia gives China the nod to hit Taiwan. This puts the USA in a “2 front war” and with a huge fuel driven supply line across the Pacific. China immediately stops shipping from Taiwan and EVERYTHING that uses “chips” in the electronics halts manufacture or repair. (Something like 90% of global semiconductor manufacturing is out of Taiwan companies).
How long does The West last without Chinese manufactured goods, Taiwanese semiconductors, and Russian oil & Gas?
I’d give it about a month.
The combined strengths of Russia Oil, Gas & Raw Materials, Chinese Manufacturing, and a few million armed soldiers would be impossible for The West to defeat without going nuclear. Heck, we couldn’t even get our armies into theater with Europe ports blocked and the whole economy halted on fuel rationing.
IF the USA was really really stupid, and started moving armies to Europe anyway, one submarine (even just using conventional warheads) can take out the bulk of the refining capacity and oil hubs in one MIRV strike. Essentially ending US ability to move anything anywhere. It might be a suicide mission, but it would be effective and not stoppable. (We have near zero anti-missile defense around our industrial facilities)
Frankly, with a huge chunk of refineries on the Gulf coast from Texas into Louisiana and next to I-10, a few dozen guys in speed boats and vans armed with RPGs could set most of them to burning.
Europe is short of oil in a huge way already, and the USA is marginal on Middle Distillates at present. Our ability to produce and deliver same is at best “fragile” in any actual war with man portable munitions and submarines. Worse when you consider the intercontinental missiles that can deliver bombs from a South Pole approach.
In any war, fuel supplies are a prime target, and ours would be hit as soon as possible.
So my question to the GEBs planning WWW is: With who’s oil?