World War Woke – With Who’s Oil?

In the last W.O.O.D., Another Ian posted a link to a Richardson Post article about Europe in general and the UK in particular “mobilizing” for war, and how that is likely to start World War III (which they called World War Woke). It then disparages the “leaders” of the west as woke ninnies that have no clue what real war is like, or that it is fought and won by the “hard men” they despise.

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2022/06/23/w-o-o-d-23-june-2022/#comment-158206

Which points to:

https://richardsonpost.com/prepper-anon/27700/mobilising-for-world-war-iii/

In an earlier posting, I pointed out the importance of oil to running a mechanized modern economy. Well, it is also essential to running a modern mechanized military:

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2022/06/09/the-singular-importance-of-middle-distillate-diesel-jet-fuel-heating-oil/

All those jet airplanes, fighters, bombers, cargo and troop carriers all run on Kerosene. All the Ships At Sea that carry goods, troops, material, bombs, bullets, tanks and trucks to a European Land War from the USA or from the UK also run on Diesel, another middle distillate. Once in battle, the armored troop carriers, tanks, howitzer tow vehicles, self mobile howitzers, radar trucks, missile launchers and every other thing that moves on the battle field (other than a soldier on foot) is also powered by oil. (Almost all of it middle distillates – kerosene / diesel) Even the electricity to light the camps and charge the smaller electric drones is made with portable Diesel Generators.

How are meals cooked? Over fuel driven stoves. Fuel made from oil.

My simple questions is this: With who’s oil will World War Woke be fought?

Europe was using a lot of Russian oil, but that would be instantly shut off in WWW. There’s not enough domestic European production to run their economy, never mind a full on war on top of it.

The USA supply has been crippled by our pResident Idiot In Chief, Biden. To the point where many Truck Stops are limiting truckers to a max of 60 gallons to a fill up.

https://www.nonforceddispatch.com/diesel-fuel-shortage-truck-stops-limiting-fuel/

From last November:

Diesel Fuel Shortage – Truck Stops Limiting Fuel

Several reports have stated that truck stops in many areas of the United States are beginning to ration diesel fuel to help with the fuel shortage. Many truck stops in the United States’ southwest region are only allowing drivers a 60-gallon limit
when fueling. If you are a driver yourself, you know that 60 gallons is not much. 60 gallons in a semi-truck is about half of the fuel capacity. When a truck is loaded to about 80,000 pounds, the truck could be getting about 6.5 – 7.5 MPG. So, this means a loaded truck can get about 420 miles on 60 gallons of fuel.

Gas Stations Limiting Gas
As of November 8, 2021 – below is a list of truck stops that are limiting fuel diesel fill-ups:

Petro – Eloy, ArizonaPetro – Kingman, ArizonaTA – Tonopah, ArizonaTA – Wilcox, ArizonaTA – Holbrook, Arizona – an alternative gas station us Petro Milan, New Mexico, I-40, Exit 79TA – Eloy, ArizonaTA – Kingman, ArizonaTA – Gallup, New Mexico – an alternative gas station use Petro Milan, I-40, Exit 79TA – Santa Rosa, New Mexico – an alternative gas station use TA Albuquerque, I-40, Exit 159A (east) or 159D (west), I-25 Exit 225 (north) or 227 (south)TA – Moriarty, New Mexico – an alternative gas station use TA Albuquerque, I-40, Exit 159A (east) or 159D (west), I-25 Exit 225 (north) or 227 (south)TA – Las Vegas, NevadaPetro – North Las Vegas, NevadaFJP – Circleville, OhioFJP – Chillicothe, OhioFJP – Columbus, OhioFJP – London, Ohio
While this situation can change, we expect diesel fuel shortages to be resolved. Before hitting the road, be sure to pre-plan your trip around available fueling stations.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/2022051116099/top-truck-stop-loves-is-monitoring-diesel-supplies-amid-shortage-fears

Got a little better in May:

Top Truck Stop Love’s Is ‘Monitoring’ Diesel Supplies Amid Shortage Fears

Provided by Dow Jones
May 11, 2022 8:07 PM EDT
By Dan Molinski

One of the U.S.’s largest truck stops, Love’s, said Wednesday it is closely watching its diesel fuel supplies in the Northeast amid growing concerns of industry-wide shortages, but said it has no plans to limit purchases.

But now is getting worse, in several ways, again:

https://traderstef.com/2022/06/24/a-diesel-fuel-shortage-storm-on-top-of-record-high-prices-part-2/

A Diesel Fuel Shortage Storm on Top of Record High Prices – Part 2
TraderStef
June 24, 2022

Another development has surfaced in the diesel fuel shortage story that could evolve into a near-term disaster in a supply chain that’s already in a state of crisis. The issue is an additive package shortage for diesel engine oil lubricants that are manufactured in the refining industry. Wholesale distributors of diesel engine oil have already begun to ration supply through delivery requests.
[…]

Truckers warn skyrocketing diesel prices are making US supply-chain and trucking industry unsustainable… “‘If something drastic doesn’t change in the next few weeks/months, I promise you, you’ll see empty shelves everywhere you look,’ Smith wrote in a post that was shared nearly 290,000 times. ‘You’ll see chaos as people fight for the basic necessities of everyday life.’” – Business Insider, Jun. 10

[…]
Before diving into diesel engine oil, there’s another variable in the supply chain that’s multiplying shortages across the board. After two years of failed negotiations between the unions and the railroad industry, workers are threatening to go on strike this summer when the rail industry is already experiencing a labor shortage and capacity issues. Diesel fuel and diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) deliveries by rail were recently reduced by 50% on the Union Pacific rail system.

Crisis On The Rails: Pilot Flying J CEO on Rail Mandates & Fuel Costs… “The ongoing ‘crisis on the rails’ has paralyzed farmers, leaving them literally ‘hours away from depopulating herds.’ The rail crisis, which is ‘harming the nation’s economy,’ impacts the supply chain of U.S. agriculture, energy, and shipping across the board. To address the severe situation, the Surface Transportation Board (STB) held a hearing in late April, giving those affected the opportunity to speak. Pilot Flying J CEO Shameek Konar spent his time during the extensive testimony revealing the unprecedented difficulties his company faces following unheard-of restrictions imposed by Union Pacific Railways.” – UndercoverDC, May 31

Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF) shortage
means some diesel users will be paying more… “The main component of DEF is a chemical compound called urea, a byproduct of industrial ammonia production. Russia exports the most urea. It is engaged in war with Ukraine… ‘We haven’t experienced (shortages) much here in the Midwest, but things do trickle,’ Poole said. ‘The coastal cities have probably experienced it more than we have, but it starts there, then hones in here.’” – KYTV, Jun. 11

Mediation fails at railroad talks, Biden likely to appoint Emergency Board… “After two years of fruitless negotiations railroad contract talks remain at an impasse and will soon require President Biden to intervene by appointing a Presidential Emergency Board. The negotiations are currently being mediated by the National Mediation Board (NMB), which stated Tuesday that mediation had reached a dead end. The contract talks involve approximately 140,000 railroad workers who are members of 13 rail unions. These unions have stated that they will not accept binding arbitration, which is normally the next step in the contract process, where both parties submit to the determination of a supposedly neutral federal third party.” – WSWS, Jun. 17

CN confirms IBEW members are on strike… “Canadian railway CN says operations are continuing after members of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) went on strike Saturday.”
– Freight Waves, Jun. 20

[…]
Weekly U.S. Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil (109,709 Barrels)
– EIA, Jun. 10

At 42 gallons per oil bbl, that’s about 4.608 Million gallons. At about 100 gallons / tank and two tanks About enough to fill up about 23,000 18 wheeler trucks ONE TIME ONLY. There are about 5 million trucks in use in the USA, so our inventory is enough to fill up about 0.4% of them. We are not going to fuel anything much from inventory. It is all “make as needed”.

So the USA can’t even keep our commercial trucking supplied with Diesel Oil, motor oil, and DEF for the smog system (that will administratively shut down the engine when you run out).

Then Usurper Biden is busy emptying our Strategic Oil Reserve and shipping it to China, so we’ll not have anywhere near enough to handle any oil disruption should a real emergency arrive. (OTOH, Biden’s Owners in China will be happy and have plenty of oil for the invasion of Taiwan).

So not seeing how the USA is going to produce the oil needed to run even our own Military, with no way we can cover the needs of the other NATO members.

So With Who’s Oil?

The way I see it, as soon as NATO starts any kind of dust-up with Russia, the Russian oil and gas spigots get turned to OFF.

Europe has an immediate crashing of their economies, farming, shipping, trucking everything that depends on oil and gas to run. France will still have some electricity for lighting, but where will they get motor fuels?

Germany is already on Coal Life Support for their basic industries at a 40% Russian natural gas level. What happens at ZERO and ZERO oil, eh?

With Europe nearly instantly back at W.W.I level of fuel supplies, how will a modern mechanized military operate? IMHO, it won’t.

Now figure that Russia is not dumb. So first thing they would do is take out the pipelines, docks and shipping that brings in any oil & fuels. Knock out the power and fuels, your enemy surrenders. The USA won’t have any extra fuel to deliver anyway, but this also prevents sharing the pain via US fuel deliveries.

Then comes Step Two:

Russia gives China the nod to hit Taiwan. This puts the USA in a “2 front war” and with a huge fuel driven supply line across the Pacific. China immediately stops shipping from Taiwan and EVERYTHING that uses “chips” in the electronics halts manufacture or repair. (Something like 90% of global semiconductor manufacturing is out of Taiwan companies).

How long does The West last without Chinese manufactured goods, Taiwanese semiconductors, and Russian oil & Gas?

I’d give it about a month.

The combined strengths of Russia Oil, Gas & Raw Materials, Chinese Manufacturing, and a few million armed soldiers would be impossible for The West to defeat without going nuclear. Heck, we couldn’t even get our armies into theater with Europe ports blocked and the whole economy halted on fuel rationing.

IF the USA was really really stupid, and started moving armies to Europe anyway, one submarine (even just using conventional warheads) can take out the bulk of the refining capacity and oil hubs in one MIRV strike. Essentially ending US ability to move anything anywhere. It might be a suicide mission, but it would be effective and not stoppable. (We have near zero anti-missile defense around our industrial facilities)

Frankly, with a huge chunk of refineries on the Gulf coast from Texas into Louisiana and next to I-10, a few dozen guys in speed boats and vans armed with RPGs could set most of them to burning.

Simply put:

Europe is short of oil in a huge way already, and the USA is marginal on Middle Distillates at present. Our ability to produce and deliver same is at best “fragile” in any actual war with man portable munitions and submarines. Worse when you consider the intercontinental missiles that can deliver bombs from a South Pole approach.

In any war, fuel supplies are a prime target, and ours would be hit as soon as possible.

So my question to the GEBs planning WWW is: With who’s oil?

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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18 Responses to World War Woke – With Who’s Oil?

  1. Ossqss says:

    Then there is this scheduled maintenance item happening tomorrow. Gonna get ugly fast.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germanys-gas-crisis-charts-pipeline-repair-then-what-2022-07-08/

  2. Graeme No.3 says:

    On a slower time scale BASF is talking of shutting down Ludwigshafen (those chemical factories for 5+ miles along the Rhine) because of natural gas shortage. BASF uses about 4% of the total gas used in Germany. About 100 other specialty chemical producers use one or more products from BASF, so they will shutdown too. The automobile industry would be one that would rapidly follow, then a lot of others including transport (rail & air as well as trucks). So even those USA troops stationed in Europe won’t be able to advance to the East.
    Germany gets approx. 60% of its essential gas from Norway and fortunately the ‘maintenance issue’ shutting off deliveries from Nordstream 1 for 10 days occurs in summer when demand for heating is much lower, so Germany may be able to keep going by reducing their storage reserves.
    This will make it very difficult to get through next winter unless they can get extra supplies which are unlikely as Germany hasn’t any bulk liquid gas depots at their ports.
    What they do have is a brand new, ready to go, big pipeline (Nordstream 2) which could carry them through winter in comfort but is not being used because the German (and EU) decided to “punish Russia” by not using it. I wonder if Vladimir Putin has realised this?

  3. philjourdan says:

    Silly Rabbit! Trix are for kids!

    I made the statement over on Pointman’s blog, but it applies here. This is not a supply chain issue. This is not an oil Supply issue. This is not a Russia issue. This is a lack of leadership issue! We have a leaderless Country where the Deep State is running things, but each pencil neck bureaucrat is pulling the strings for their expertise(???). There is no big picture person running things. So the painted fingernail generals rattle sabers! The tutu wearing admirals rattle Aircraft carriers. And the pencil neck bureaucrats say “best economy ever!”.

    And no one is doing any planning. Butt-a-judge? He is too busy fitting himself for fake boobs to worry about transportation! And the rest are just as clueless.

    I never like Obama. He is the definition of Snake Oil Salesman. But he RAN the government. NOt very well, but everything done under his administration was at his command. Now? Pencil necks are running things because bye-bye-biden has left the building!

    And that is a sure path to destruction. 2 years ago, I thought we could survive 4 years of a fraudulent Resident in Chief. I am not sure we can survive another year now. He sent this country down the sewer path faster than anyone could have without a plan of destruction operating. Incompetence is more potent than the best laid plans of residents or men.

  4. E.M.Smith says:

    @Ossqss:

    Yup, real ugly real fast. With “Chemicals” and “steel / iron” being big users, they get the shutdown notice on shortages. Just about everything manufactured uses some kind of “chemicals” (that includes polymers / plastics and lubrication oils & greases…) and iron / steel.

    As noted “Cars” and “car parts” will follow rapidly. There goes the biggest German money maker export.

    “Chemicals” also includes fertilizer and such. Ammonia, nitrates… there goes the farming sector.

    Then those nitrates also go into making Gunpowder. All those loverly Artillery Shells NATO sent to Ukraine can’t be replaced without the nitrate based powder that goes inside of them…

    @Graeme No.3:

    The “Maintenance window” is always scheduled for July so that it has minimum impact. However, due to the 40% run rate going into it, “storage” is not full. So it will be a bit dicey for Germany (and others) to get through intact. Then they are looking at fall approaching, without sufficient stored gas for regular use in peak clipping in winter and with supply reduced so much they can’t fill storage.

    I did see a link to another article on Reuters saying Canada agreed to return the compressor turbine needed to get flow back up to 100% (instead of the 40% present limit). So somebody realized Germany was having their “bits in the wringer” and maybe that particular sanction was, um, “counter productive”…

    I’d still be not at all surprised to see Russia take parts out of the system for “maintenance”, announce they needed a bit of refurb or replacement, but “Sadly, due to being blocked from the Western Banking System they would be unable to pay for the repairs”… so no gas until SWIFT access restored and sanctions on German Hardware & Repair lifted…

    Figure on Western “understanding” about the first cold day in September… or whenever the car companies start shutting down (whichever comes first).

    I’m sure everyone is aware of Nordstream 2 being mothballed. Another “Own Goal” by the EU / USA / GEBs complex… Don’t see where Putin will have any interest in starting it up as long as NATO is “uncooperative”.

    Were I Putin / His Advisers: I’d be looking to build a big fat fast pipeline to China… Tell Europe you are just helping them achieve their 2030 Climate Goals…

    I have significant doubts that the EU and / or NATO can survive their own actions. A whole lot of Eastern Europe nations and a few in the South (Italy, Greece) might just realize it’s better to have Russian gas & oil than Eu Dictatorial Bureaucrats…

  5. YMMV says:

    Oil and economy, oil and war. Going back to 1941 and Pearl Harbor. Actually a bit before that. Japan wanted to build an empire. It needed food and oil. It imported 94% of its oil, mostly from the US. They were either going to invade Russia for it or invade the SE Asian islands. They picked the south option. The US then sanctioned and embargoed oil to Japan. Then comes the Pearl Harbor failed attack.

  6. YMMV says:

    I did see a link to another article on Reuters saying Canada agreed to return the compressor turbine needed to get flow back up to 100%

    Canada was holding on to it because sanctions. Finally they agreed to give it back, but only to Germany instead of Russia. Technically avoiding sanctions?
    https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-canada-germany-dc0cecbb7b8d909d86d1388fcd7e4a8e

  7. Ossqss says:

    @YMMV, we will see that same scenario play out many times. I think that is referred to in Legal terms as, leverage, or was it extortion? I dunno anymore.

  8. Ossqss says:

    Sooo, let’s review.

    Chip shortages for basically anything digital, shipping challenges for basically anything, demand destruction on energy, purchase power, and pretty much EVERYTHING else through inflation.

    Impunity on Vaccines but placing punitive conditions on ALL our food producers.

    Sanctioning the globe into self-inflicted chaos.

    Wait, what> Is it just me?

  9. E.M.Smith says:

    @Ossqss:

    You need to add to your summary list:

    Shutdowns of Iron, Steel, Chemical and Aluminum companies (And all the folks dependent on them for materials to make things…).

    In the USA we already have at least 1 aluminum smelter closed, and others talking about it. High electricity costs. We’ll see more of this in every energy intensive industry as folks learn you can’t do iron smelting with solar panels and windmills.

    So let’s see, what can you no longer make if you don’t have steel, aluminum, chemicals and polymers, rubber, and similar goods? How about essentially everything.

  10. mddwave says:

    Fortunately, the United States has planned ahead for those contingencies and has the Strategic Petroleum reserves. We are prepared!
    https://www.energy.gov/fecm/strategic-petroleum-reserve-9

    Unfortunately, the dominion voting machine assisted by mules elected President decided the contingency was for his short term political needs and drew down approximately 100 million barrels of reserve so far this year.
    http://www.spr.doe.gov/dir/dir.html

  11. Ossqss says:

    @EM, this seems fitting> for the situation at hand …—… , but many feel fine.

    Just sayin>

  12. YMMV says:

    Diesel, DEF, California ports, California truckers:
    https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2022/07/a_diesel_crisis_could_slam_the_economy.html

    Natural News reports that 70,000 independent truck drivers will be forced off the road by California’s Assembly Bill 5, which outlaws independent truck drivers who are “owner-operators” — that is, not full-time employees of a corporation.

    links to https://www.naturalnews.com/2022-07-05-truckpocalypse-begins-in-california-truckers-forced-off-the-roads.html

  13. p.g.sharrow says:

    Yes, the WEF and GEBs are conducting WAR against the Democracies with the help of the CCP. Treason abounds. The people are beginning to revolt around the world! The Internet that connects the people is our only hope. YOU are not ALONE ! We are Legion they are few. and they are terrified that we might discover that fact. We Don’t Need.them.

  14. The True Nolan says:

    @Ossqss
    I like to remind myself that “the end of the world as we know it” is not the end of the world.

    It is only the end of the world “as we know it”. Big difference! Every crisis is a dangerous opportunity, but it is still an opportunity.

  15. philjourdan says:

    @OSSQSS – I hate the Dave Matthews Band! Even though they are from here. All I hear are cats whining! But your previous point is taken. Keep DM to yourself!

  16. beng135 says:

    mddwave, biden sold some of the reserve oil to China funneled thru his son’s “company”.
    https://thefederalist.com/2022/07/08/biden-sold-oil-from-emergency-reserves-to-chinese-gas-giant-tied-to-his-scandal-plagued-son/

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