From several other news sources, I’d observed small little announcements that one EU / NATO country or another had signed some pledge of “mutual support” with Ukraine. That had “raised a flag” and I was wondering “Why?”… Was it symbolic? Was it political, trying to make Putin think “Canada was in it to win it, so I better surrender?” (A little bit ;-) /sarc;)
Or more darkly was it a slow push to get NATO Direct Involvement via some NATO country taking damage and invoking “Article 5”? But how? Putin is not so dumb as to drop rockets on Poland just because there are some Polish troops in Ukraine pretending to be Ukrainians. Easier and safer to just chew them up in Yet Another Cauldron… as Russia has been doing already. Where was this any different?
Then I watched this video and had a “Penny Drop Moment”. I’ve not learned her name, but this is a Polish lady who wanders around Poland and Russia at various times, often just “fretting on camera” about some political risk du jour. Sometimes enjoying the architecture or history. I suspect she started as a “Travel Channel” and events changed her options. I’ve noticed a LOT of channels, blogs, and such who have had a change of focus as the world has gone more nuts and events have gotten way too serious. Channels where the name will be something like “Mary’s fine crafts” but they now have a story up about “Lawfare against Trump” or “Ukraine and Nuclear War Risk”…
But whatever. This is where it became clearer what The Game was, so this one gets the link. Her “about” box:
About
My intention for this channel is to inspire you to seek the truth, to remind you of your own power. and to introduce you to those people and places that will enrich your lives even more.
Ania K
So Ania. Searching for truth via traveling around…
“SEVERAL NATO AND EU MEMBER STATES WILL SEND THEIR SOLDIERS TO UKRAINE”, FICO, PM OF SLOVAKIA.
She starts off with some Travel Stuff about writers in Russia, then a bit about the pilot who killed himself by self immolation over Israel – ending his ability to do anything to help… At about 3 minutes, she transitions to reading a translation of what the Slovak Prime Minister had to say about being pushed to send troops into Ukraine. Originally in Slovak, translated to Polish, she then translates the Polish on to English. Unlikely to find that on the Nightly Snooze or the Beeb…
So one P.M. spills the beans and explains the other “mutual support” agreements.
NATO members, (most likely via the USA &/or EU) pushing member nation to get ready and send troops into Ukraine to fight against Russia. Fico refuses and says that, at most, they will do non-combat “de-mining” (training and equipment).
Which leaves open the obvious questions of:
What will troops from the other countries be doing?
What happens when they get killed “in theater”?
What happens when an equipment and staging / training depot just over the border outside of Ukraine gets blown up? (Either by Russia or as a False Flag excuse…)
To me, it looks like an “Act Of Desperation Plan B” by The USA / EU / UK / “Nato” bosses. But to what end? Just more cannon fodder to stuff into Ukraine (since that’s gone so well so far… /sarc;)? Goading Russia in the hopes of getting an Article 5 plausible response?
What is clear is that the “push” to do this is external to the individual countries (since Slovakia had to resist it…). So how many of the others were coerced, not voluntary? Eh? The “by whom” is as necessary to “out” as the “for what”…
Here’s the video:
I can’t see the sense of it. However, it does also clarify why Russia has 1/2 Million Man (or so) Army, that they have not used in Ukraine, spread around the borders of Russia and Belarus with Ukraine, and more stationed on the Finnish and other borders. They are there for when NATO declares an Article 5 War on Russia. Putin saw this a year+ ago. Good chess player…
So back at “Why?”. First “Why? Don’t ask why… down that path lies Insanity and Ruin. -E.M.Smith”. So, exploring why…
I can only see 2 realistic reasons.
1) Ukraine is out of men (and low on women…) to send into combat. Russia has destroyed, so far, 3 NATO Created Armies, and is busy routing the remnants at the line of contact. Got to get more bodies, so import a batch of “volunteers” from other NATO countries.
2) Get some direct NATO presence, maybe even a large one with lots of support from the NATO side of the border. Then goad Putin into an attack on them so you can declare an Article 5 Event even without Ukraine being in NATO. (And if Putin is smart enough, which I think he is, to NOT do that attack, stage a False Flag one and go ahead anyway).
The simple fact is that NATO (ex USA) is essentially out of ammunition and equipment to take to the fight, so #1 above is not going to fix that. There would be a marginal increase as nations would draw down their deeper reserves even more and become even more at risk. So mostly sending bodies into Ukraine will just result in the “Slaughter Of The Cauldrons” being full of Poles, Germans, English, and perhaps even the odd Canadian… instead of Ukrainian 70 year olds and teenagers.
Russia has done a great job of fighting a “Conservation of forces” war of attrition and NATO (via Ukraine) seems to still not “get it”. So “stopping Russian Advances” at the present line of contact would just return to the “Grind, envelop, and destroy” that eliminated the first 3 Ukrainian NATO armies. Lots of body bags flowing back to NATO. $Billions more equipment destroyed. Russia’s STATED GOALS continuing to be met (the destruction of the opposing army(s) and removal of the threat). I’d say “Our side can’t be stupid enough to do that” – but all we’ve seen so far says “Yeah, they have been that stupid and still are that stupid”. It’s been 2 years now and they still have not learned that Russia is NOT about capturing dirt, it is about “threat removal by destruction of opposing forces as efficiently as possible”. So I can fully see “us” sending in more threatening forces and pushing them up to the line of contact to be destroyed (since they will still have very little ammunition for artillery especially). Money and Bodies do not replace ammunition stores.
Which leaves me with option #2. Get all of NATO involved in a full on force on force war with Russia by pushing Proxy Countries forward to elicit an attack on them, then Cry Foul… and if that isn’t forthcoming, fake it.
The problem with this is that the EU / UK “forces” are barely enough for nice parades and are largely out of equipment and ammunition (having sent a load to Ukraine for destruction already…) PLUS we now have ample evidence that our Wonder Weapons are farts in the wind.
So that only really leaves the USA to pick up the slack. And that’s a lot of slack to pick up. This is a “Land War in Europe on the edge of Asia”. The USA is largely a Sea Power, and is on the opposite side of the planet. That just isn’t going to work well At All. Russia has used the last 2 years to figure out how to defeat our Wonder Weapons, Jam our communications and GPS, and wipe out our space facilities. They now know they can sink all our carriers with unstoppable hypersonic missiles (taking all the air power with them) and that our tanks are a nice target for their hunter killer groups and helicopters.
So when that happens, do “we” go nuclear? Against an adversary with more nukes than we have and more interesting ones too?
Sidebar on Weapons:
Russia has a nuclear torpedo that can be launched to travel around the world, lurk off your coastline, and when ordered, make a Mega-Tsunami a few hundred feet tall that wipes out your whole coastline. Bye Bye NYC, Wash DC, Virginia Naval and Marine bases, Cape Canaveral, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Pearl Harbor, Seattle… Are we really ready for that? How about London, Denmark, the Netherlands? And more…
Recent news has been all excited about some hypothetical Russian Nuke In Space. Um, folks, Russia has had the ability to put rockets in space with nukes on board for the last 50+ years. There isn’t much new here. They pledged not to, but “we” have broken just about every treaty with them, so they are no longer bound by them. Why does this matter? Because a nuke set off about 400 miles up destroys our satellites AND our sensitive electronic society with a huge EMP Electro Magnetic Pulse. I’m sure they have been “ready to do it” for 50 years IF it were ever needed. Only difference now is they are letting us know, AND our Idiots In Charge had not thought it through…
So who wins?
So any “NATO Article 5 In It To Win IT!” just results in the utter destruction of The West. The USSR had incredibly good Civil Defense plans. Most of the population of cities can get underground and find food and beds there. The West? We don’t have crap. Where is YOUR “Civil Defense Shelter”? Anyone check the food supply and best-by dates in the last 1/2 century? Is it sized for the whole population, or the population of 1950? Or half that population of 1950? Or are we all to just “Duck and Cover and Hope”…
No, the simple fact is that IF we of The West were STUPID enough to have a NATO on Russia war, then Russia would have a Very Bad Day – but recover; and The West would be utterly destroyed and in chaos.
FWIW, I’ve spent a fair amount of the last 50 years as a “Prepper” to some extent or another thinking this stuff through. Not serious enough to have a “bunker in the woods”, but enough to know what the real risks and likely results would be. The destruction of any population center over about 1/4 million is pretty much assured. Over 100,000 is likely. Then the plague, famine, and migration flood takes out most of what is left.
So the only remaining question is this: Are the Psychopaths in charge stupid enough, or evil enough, to want that and “go there”? Unfortunately, they have often said they want to eliminate 90% or so of the population, so I can’t rule it out. It might be a case of “This behaviour is by design” (quoting a Microsoft Support site about a bug in the mail server…)
What to do?
I don’t know that there is anything we can do. Our governments are no longer under the control of their citizens. The Psychopaths in charge act as though they can do anything with no consequences and are happy to “kill people & break things”. Their agenda is anti-human, anti-democratic, and devoid of reality centered thinking. Plus they have taken the levers of power. That’s a hard hill to climb.
I can see a couple of glimmers of hope.
1) Putin continues to be a far far better chess player than The West. He’s winning the game in ways they can’t even see.
2) Putin (and Russia collectively) has been extraordinarily patient and careful. Never doing enough at any one time to elicit too big a response. Always leaving things looking like Ukraine has a shot at a win somewhere (then closing the trap and destroying them in Yet Another Cauldron when appropriate, but slowly so as not to scare them away from sending more “support” and “reinforcements”… ). So unlikely to be the one escalating to W.W.III.
3) NATO is increasingly out of ability to wage such a war anyway. We won’t get the Grand Armee attacking in great force. Just “more of the same”. And the “why” is just “logistics”. NATO doesn’t have enough stuff, and what they do have is not where one would want it for attacking Russia, plus our people are mostly old, fat, and lazy, so not a lot of war enthusiasm to be found. One hopes they realize that prior to fielding more cannon fodder…
4) We’re in a Race Condition. Near as I can tell, the “NATO Schedule” is a 2025 readiness to “counterattack”. But that’s AFTER the Election in the USA (so some hope for Trump to step in and stop the madness). Plus, at the present Russian rate of advancement, this thing is over in 6 months (maybe 3) and neither the EU, nor the UK, nor the USA, nor NATO Collectively can move that fast to a ‘war footing’. My best guess is this is all wrapped up before the insane plan can get going.
5) The EU is “auguring in” economically and this will “focus the minds” of a lot of folks. EU Manufacturing depends on minerals and energy from Russia, so is busy packing up and leaving. Then the stupidity of attacking agriculture in the middle of all this boggles the mine. “An army moves on its stomach” has not changed, and the EU Stomach is already a bit hungry, with far worse to come if present plans succeed. We already have “regime change” in the wind in several member states. Picking a fight with Russia will only accelerate that discontent. I could easily see more “XXexit” in the wind. Probably Hungary & Slovakia first, with Greece, Italy, & Spain having potential; especially when German Money goes walkies due to no tax revenue from gone companies and a recession…
In Short: There’s no way that the EU can fight a war with Russia, so it won’t. It might be destroyed in one, but it won’t fight a Russian Army. The USA is not going to fight a war with Russia; the political risk of loss of power is too high given the present MAGA Mood of the country, and certainly not going to even try it until after the election (so a lot hangs on that…) BUT by then Russia will be at the gates of Kiev… And the UK? Good luck with that… Still good at Secret Agent Intrigues, still has a small good fighting groups sized army, but not a super power scale anything.
None of that is likely to stop our Idiots In Charge from trying. But I hold out hope that things like the Farmers Strike, and Truckers not delivering goods to the seats of evil (like NYC at present) will redirect the GEBs “concerns” to issues closer to home and away from war aspirations. Throw in losing a couple of Nations to the Traditional Rational side, and it might set them back a ways.
Me? I’m going to do more prepping and less “trying to fix”. I think we have until about November to be ready for “brown stuff hitting whirly thing”. So prepare accordingly. The W. Evil F. plans are increasingly on the rocks, the GEBs are outing themselves at breakneck speed. Their fear is in the air, and an ever larger part of We The People (globally) are choosing not to comply. So I’m going to be planning for more chaos in the cities, more international instabilities, and an ever more frantic group of GEBs yanking on the puppet strings of their Idiots In Charge ever harder, and getting ever less of what they want.
I just hope the GEBs power collapses as their economies collapse, and it doesn’t end up in a nuclear W.W.III. Because while I’m pretty sure I’m prepped enough to survive that, personally, I’m also certain that neither the USA, EU, nor UK as nations and cultures would survive. Hopefully the GEBs realize that: in a Free For All, they lose.
Musings from the Chiefio 
@EM
“Nothing should be ruled out,” [Macron] said. “We will do anything we can to prevent Russia from winning this war.”
He was backed up by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg (the same fellow who gave “permission” to Ukraine to bomb Russia with its forthcoming F-16s)
The Question of Mercenaries
There are hundreds, if not thousands, of foreign “volunteers” in Ukraine, the largest contingents coming from Romania, Poland and France, supplemented by British, German and other foreign troops. Americans also are in Ukraine in significant numbers, and some have been killed as a result of bombings or front line action.
“Volunteers” apparently are well paid and strongly supported by European governments. They divide roughly into three main categories: technically trained weapons’ operators; intelligence and tactical advisors; and front-line fighters.
Russia claimed it killed some 60 French “volunteers” when it hit a hotel used as a barracks in Kharkiv. France denied that was the case, then called in the Russian Ambassador to Paris to admonish the Russians for killing French citizens. Similarly, Russian strikes on Patriot batteries, air fields and command centers have taken the lives of numerous foreign “volunteers.”
https://weapons.substack.com/p/macron-pushes-war-against-russia
The Spy War: How the C.I.A. Secretly Helps Ukraine Fight Putin
For more than a decade, the United States has nurtured a secret intelligence partnership with Ukraine that is now critical for both countries in countering Russia.
I’ve noticed a LOT of channels, blogs, and such who have had a change of focus as the world has gone more nuts and events have gotten way too serious. Channels where the name will be something like “Mary’s fine crafts”
Have noticed that here in the UK as well.
e.g.
“Successful Garden Design” started by a nice pleasant lady who just wants to make pretty gardens and grow her own food. She then fell down the rabbit hole of how and why her local council makes its decisions. Starting with its planning permissions, then into it unilaterally declaring a Climate Emergency, then into the unlawful way it operates. Plus farming protests, UN policies imposed locally, farmers being told by government officials that they need to stop farming meat and dairy, etc.
https://www.youtube.com/@Successfulgardendesign
Her main message now?
“No messing about, no excuses, get the allotment ready on time”
Starting with soil preparation, with well-mixed manure into the existing soil.
“if the shops are empty of food, the effort is obviously worth while”.
Well, I think a NATO push of troops “on the ground” is now confirmed… Why?
Heard on the radio a quote of, British (someone important…P.M.? Boris?) saying “We will NOT put troops on the ground in Ukraine.” When they are denying it in the MSM, that pretty much confirms it is in the planning stages and they have put out the “suppress opposition” line… (since every “red line” they did in the past has been shot past… we have a pattern…)
@Keith:
Yup. I suspect that TPTB have no clue just how many “Ordinary folk with a hobby wanting to be left along to play with it” have been converted into Keyboard Warrior (or worse…).
BTW, the one about “Mary’s Fine Crafts” was basically a real one (but not named Mary’s just didn’t get the exact name) that, after a long critical bit on how the war is going, ended with about 5 minutes of crochet making a pink key pocket/pouch…
I have a feeling that things are not going to go well for the GEBs and their IIC…
FWIW, I’ve just finished canning a batch of Green Bean and Carrot Sticks (carrots are MUCH better canned without salt, but for other stuff it is almost a must have…) and I’ve got a batch of “Split pea with ham” soup ready to go in when the pressure canner drops pressure. Why? Because empty jars are not as good a “prep” as filled ones…
I’d really rather be “on the boat” with Florida Friend drinking beer & sanding teak today… or posting about sailing around learning to catch the local fish (maybe next week…) but no… Yesterday was “prep the cars, check the tire pressure, assure ALL are full of fuel”. Today is “do canning” and such. Next week? I hope it isn’t “Buy a lot of ammo with cash”… I’d rather be buying a Henry .22 lever rifle, or looking for a nice 9mm Carbine like the Ruger… Things not all that great for EOTWAWKI Authoritarian Issues. I was very surprised to go into a gun store here, about 6 months ago, and see dozens of guns with suppressors on them, ready to go. Would be GREAT given my hearing loss since at present if I fire a gun without plugs AND muffs, I’m risking more hearing loss. But not liking the idea of “being on a list” of folks who paid for The Stamp…
Oh Well. What will be, will be. I just have to be reasonably ready for it, and react appropriately to what comes.
So instead of those fun things, I’m watch The Duran & the 2 Alex’s give me daily updates on the depth of Stupid in our Idiots In Charge, and trying to predict what crap will fall where, and when… Sigh.
I think I really need to go fishing next week…
Gee… my article “went up” at about 5 pm UTC or about 5 hours ago. The Duran sees the same things, but their Rumble post went up about 3 hours ago. Interesting. Either I’m channeling them, or we’re both on The Same Page seeing the same facts on the ground with the same logic engine.
I do find it a bit gratifying that “I’m not alone in saying this”… but it can be a bit creepy at times ;-)
https://rumble.com/v4g1gol-macron-is-freaking-out-over-ukraine-collapse.html
@EM
It seems like one of those tipping points.
The latest from Naked Emperor:
The Truth About Ukraine Starts to Leak Out ~ But claiming Russia was provoked into war still means you’re a Russian stooge
The conspiracies about Ukraine are like all the rest – after a few years the conspiracy theorists are proven correct. First you are called a Russian stooge for suggesting NATO expansion may have provoked Russia to invade Ukraine, before the truth starts to slowly drip out. A few more years and The Guardian will be lecturing us on biolabs in Ukraine! So what things, that we weren’t allowed to talk about, have been revealed this week?
The next part really did have me wondering what’s suddenly changed?
Firstly, Chief of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, confirmed that the Western MSM had been telling porkies about Russia using Iranian missiles. “The Russians do not have Iranian missiles, North Korean were used a few time, but not on a large scale,” he told reporters.
I’ve not seen that verified, but then, who would verify it?
Next, Budanov, admitted that Putin didn’t take out Navalny. “I may disappoint you, but what we know is that he really died due to a blood clot,” the Ukrainian chief confirmed.
Is this real? Is the top Ukrainian intel guy really saying it wasn’t the Russians that whacked one of their own?
Then the biggest clue?
The question is – why is this information being leaked out now? Are the Americans preparing to abandon Ukraine as they fear? “It happened in Afghanistan before and now it’s going to happen in Ukraine,” a senior Ukrainian officer said.
Afghanistan (and especially the shameful scenes at Kabal Airport) gave the whole world a very graphic picture of what happens when you suddenly get abandoned.
https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/the-truth-about-ukraine-starts-to
Alex Mercouris
“Panic Sweeps EU, Rus Advances, Ukr Troops Flee; Macron Urgent Talks, Wants EU Troops to Ukr; EU No”
https://rumble.com/v4g1e1r-panic-sweeps-eu-rus-advances-ukr-troops-flee-macron-urgent-talks-wants-eu-t.html
Sounds like prime territory for brain farts
According to Sundance over at the Treehouse, the signs are pointing to Moldova to be the next US proxy to poke the Bear.
The VOS (one letter to the right on a keyboard) strategy is to bleed Russia dry economically by forcing it to keep fighting a forever war. Putin will be ousted when the people get fed up and tired of the eternal war.
Like Zelenskyyyyyyy, I’d be willing to bet Moldova’s leaders have been bought off (lotsa moolah!!!!) and the heck with what Moldovans want. My guess is the average Moldovan on the street isn’t interested in getting bombed or shot up as a US proxy by Russia. They see what’s happening next door. Too bad. Their opinion won’t matter.
The NYT tell-all piece about the VOS involvement starting in 2014 is perhaps their (VOS) way of saying, “See? Destroying muuuh Russia! Russia! Russia! is really important and we’ve been working really hard on this behind the scenes. We didn’t want to tell anyone, but support has been waning, so we decided to let everyone know we’ve been doing everything possible and we’re still in it to win it.”
The another ian just posted over on W.O.O.D. that Macron is fearmongering like the Russians are already inside Paris and using the Louvre for barracks… or something. Be Alarmed! We must support the fight against Russia!
I don’t think they’ve finished with Plan A. Ukraine is done. It’s time for the next
patsyproxy up.Moldova is the feint.
Kaliningrad is where the focus will be. The GEB desperately want the Baltic to be a NATO lake, since the Black Sea seems to be a bust.
Note that there is an ongoing, full strength (LOL) NATO exercise happening in Eastern Poland, conveniently close to Kaliningrad.
Note also that Shoigu set aside 500k troops, more than a year ago, to stand up the Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts, which Putin made official today…just in case the Baltics got frisky (with help). Yes, that’s the kind of strategic thinking Russia routinely does, that the West doesn’t grasp.
Further, every time NATO has said “We won’t provide (weapon system X)”, it’s already in theatre. We *know* that NATO troops are on the ground, operating and maintaining the weapon systems Ukraine never had time to train on, and many more “turncoats” are on the ground, being turned to fertiliser.
The question is: can NATO convince itself it has the air superiority is absolutely MUST have, to commit to attacking/pressuring Kaliningrad, or will saner heads prevail.
The first F-whatever to fly within 20km of a Pantsir will have a Very Bad Day, and woe unto anything that flies within 100km of any system that starts with an S ….
Another FWIW look –
“SITREP 2/27/24: Desperate Globalists Float Boots on Ground to Save Ukraine”
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-22724-desperate-globalists
Every European leader has publicly rejected Macron’s call for NATO troops in Ukraine. Moreover, 75% of Frenchmen have rejected it. So it is not going to happen.
This does not change the fact that there have been US/UK troops in Ukraine since, or even before, the Maidan coup, nor that NATO troops in disguise as volunteers are operating the high tech weapons US/NATO sent to Ukraine. However, none of the volunteers are in NATO uniforms, so there is all sorts of deniability, and the Russians do not have to attack North America and Western Europe.
seems like war w/Russia is being pushed. Actually, not surprising as insanity is spreading like a flash-fire..
“Surprising” things on SBS here in Australia** yesterday that Ukraine only had received 30% of ammunition promised and wanted more USA cash, with Macron saying that troops were needed to go to Ukraine. The comments were unfavourably.
**The surprise is that SBS (Special Broadcasting Service) was set up as a political cash-funded ‘service’ for migrants, and started as (if possible) more left wing than the ABC. Now since it has to raise its own cash it has become somewhat more like a sensible Democrat (if there are any left) with lots of documentaries not from the BBC (unlike the ABC which has steadfastly gone all WOKE). I don’t watch the ABC and mostly not SBS – I think I caught this changing channels.
However very few people now don’t use Bolshevic as part of the SBS spent out, that is now used for the ABC.
The NYT tell-all piece about the CIA involvement starting in 2014 and since, with intelligence centers (not to mention what looks like CIA run bio labs) all over Ukraine, is a desperate admittance that Putin was right and can prove it; the US and Britian were full on using Ukraine to attack Russia, and all of Ukraine leadership was essentially CIA operatives or tools, likely directing the anti Russian murder of Russian leaning Ukrainians.
To me this indicates that they know Russia will win, and can likely give strong evidence of all of the above, so they are simply front running the spin. Very very few people in the world trust the GEBs, or the US, so their propaganda has very limited affect, and they are used to ignoring this, and marching right ahead in their insanity. Yet the pushback from sane citizens is ever growing, and more and more bilionaires are seeing the hell the GEBs have led the world to.
Not only has Russia learned how to wage war against modern US weapons, but so has China. I think there are very many real indications that Putin does NOT want anymore then his limited clearly stated goals, and he may be the best hope for avoiding where the GEBs are driving the world.
The desperation to keep Trump and Putin apart is clear. They both represent “rational nationalism” and with India and some 1/2 dozen other nations leading, the world may yet avoid the worst of the dark clouds gathering.
“Because a nuke set off about 400 miles up destroys our satellites AND our sensitive electronic society with a huge EMP Electro Magnetic Pulse”
but, but, Starlink will still work, right?
StarLink is in very low Earth orbit. The EMP originates about 250-350 miles above it. That blows an “electronic hole” about 3000 miles wide in the satellites (pretty much all of them). BUT: I’m of the opinion that there would be more than 1 EMP device set off. So figure more like a set of 2 over both the USA/Canada and EU / UK. Now you have something closer to a 6000 to 8000 mile hole, but at two different times taking out “whatever flies over next”; so more like a 12000 to 16000 mile sized gap in the satellites.
Then the next problem…
There’s going to be a Whole Lot Of Stuff busted up, or knocked out of control so no longer holding stable orbits. This is fairly likely to start a kind of cascade failure as they make ever more small junk (from the initial blasts to the results of collisions rubblizing ever more junk). Not a guaranteed result, but likely. It doesn’t take too many “ton sized” satellites busted up into bean sized chunks to have collision frequency start climbing exponentially…
Then there’s that minor problem of the ground stations either being EMP-ed to inert OR their power being shutdown (not to mention the site you want to reach via StarLink being down / offline / unreachable – network dead / or fried…)
So my “best guess” is that after any EMP attack, Starlink will be “mostly down” and any bits still working will be degrading rapidly, but nothing much to “talk too” anyway.
But frankly, I think I’ll be more worried about the Power Grid and most things electronic being dead than wondering if I can use StarLink to watch the BBC report…
Speaking of low earth orbits, here is a company working to use VERY low earth orbits. I absolutely do NOT give any opinion on whether it is worth putting any money into, but it is an interesting idea, one that I have not heard of anywhere else. Even if it is used as a way of temporarily dropping a satellite into a low orbit, it raises some very intriguing possibilities, mostly military in my opinion.
https://wefunder.com/skeyeon
Ran into this interesting video about EMP from (deep resonant voicing… ;-)
Nukes In Space….
15 minutes and it’s worse than I thought!……
Seems that the electrons created by the gama rays from a Space Nuke stimulate (in a LASER kind of way) electrons that travel along the magnetic lines of the Earth and create a “New Radiation Belt” that is basically in LEO and lasts for days. So basically not geographically limited over the target.
The only protection, really, is radiation hardening the satellites, which is heavy and expensive, and isn’t done much. So the odds are that all the little (non-tube lots of microcircuits) satellites we make today will be fried.
FWIW, for a long time back in the ’50s and ’60s when things like Nuclear Bombs In Space were tested (Starfish Prime test) many satellites were made with Vacuum Tubes, that are far far more EMP resistant than transistors that are more EMP resistant than microcircuits…. We still make some satellites today with very micro sized vacuum tubes for just that reason. So I’d expect pretty much everything commercial in LEO to be fried. (Military gear might survive IF they did the right things…)
FWIW, in my “Deep EOTWAWKI Stores” is a Tube Radio Kit. So “some assembly required” but I figure if the world has gone IC & Transistor Dead I’ll have some time to assemble it. Bought it about 30 years ago, and it was from Australia, so uses UK type “valves” and not the US models I was used to from my early radio days… but a tube is a tube, so… I also have a large AM / FM /SW Tube Radio about the size of a dishwasher (i.e. an antique) that works, but has a LOT of hum from leakage from the heater power supply due to failed capacitors. A common problem then. I know how to fix it, and it is on the “someday” list ;-) What happens when 3 of your “hobby interests” collide: Shortwave, antiques, and Survival Prep – you buy all sorts of fun stuff ;-)
Posted just 2 hours ago:
So I suspect that even if you keep your StarLink Ground Station stored in an iron Garbage Can (simple and questionable EMP protection…) that the orbiting constellation will be fried. Between too bright a shine on the Solar Cells frying them, to too much current blowing the power circuits and then on to EMP disrupting the computers and comms gear on board to the control systems to hold orientation being fried… I can’t see the orbiting in LEO satellites surviving. At LEAST 1/3 will die, and I expect it will end up closer to 100% over a week or so. Tube Shortwave has some hope, in comparison. BTW, most commercial radio still uses a vacuum tube final amplifier. Hard to get 10 kW transistors ;-) However, all the studio and front end gear will likely get fried. BUT a nice tube Short Wave Radio might let you pick up South American stations reporting the “news”… and who “won” and who “survived”…
But it will likely take a week for the New Nuclear Radiation Belt to decay enough to get reliable “skip”…
TTN – also see https://www.gravitecinc.com/ . Hector Serrano has been working on the drive system for a couple of decades, and the theory there is that if you simulate negative mass right next to a normal positive mass, the pair see gravitational forces in the same direction. Casimir gaps simulate negative mass in theory, and in practice he gets several tens of mN of (reactionless) thrust. That’s enough to counter air-drag for a satellite at 93km height, so he’s planning to sell photos from such satellites. No space test yet for this drive, though he’s been planning a test. Though his original plans involved only using the drives for his own satellites (since few believed they’d work), recently he’s become open to selling them to others too.
@All
Just wondering about this “huge EMP Electro Magnetic Pulse”.
Who could (or would) initiated that, without suiciding all of their own satellites and comms networks?
The only conceivable way I can think of is having a huge number of rockets and new satellites on stand-by, ready to launch and replace what used to be there. Except by now there’s so much space junk flying around that nothing might last long before random collisions.
EMP is a last resort solution, in case the main plan fails.
Their main plan – which is ongoing and has for many years – is infiltrating the Democrat party, bribing or blackmailing Democrats and make them destroy the USA from within.
So far it is going better than they expected.
( same is done to Canada and Europe, but the big prize – by far – is the USA)
@Keith:
Any country without a huge presence in space, or where removal of the USA Space Dominance ( ISR) capability would be a net gain and especially if they are losing…
So take China: Say they start an invasion of Taiwan and the USA has full intel on every ship, tank, plane, and soldier, so can target them all with our limited inventory of precision guided missiles. One EMP later, we got nothin’… We don’t have enough dumb bombs to do old style “shoot a lot and hope” attacks, we can’t communicate effectively (since most of it these days takes a satellite hop at some point), and we don’t know where they are moving what anymore. Blind, deaf, and dumb (both meanings).
What would China lose? Some weather information, and some of their more limited satellite ISR info, but they know where Taiwan is…
Or take Russia: I suspect their gear is much more EMP hardened. They only recently put up their GPS equivalent system, so are far less dependent on it. Their country is far far larger (so “shoot and hope” has more areas in which to miss interesting targets), and Ukraine is right in front of the Front Lines… We lose all the intel we are feeding to Ukraine, the Ukraine drones and long range precision missiles don’t work, yet the Russian Tanks and MLRS do just dandy still…
It’s all about the assymetric dependence on tech and satellites…
Or take Iran: Nothing in space to lose, and a couple of nukes over The Great Satan might just put us out of business forever…
@Canadian Friend:
I can also see EMP as a “First Strike” option. Level the playing field first and with a lot of your gear in EMP protective storage; then go to all out war… So nuke the satellites, and then launch your ICBMs at your blind opponent, hunker down, and wait to asses.
FWIW, for a long time back in the ’50s and ’60s when things like Nuclear Bombs In Space were tested (Starfish Prime test) many satellites were made with Vacuum Tubes, that are far far more EMP resistant than transistors that are more EMP resistant than microcircuits…. We still make some satellites today with very micro sized vacuum tubes for just that reason.
Sputnik: 4 October 1957.
“The power supply, with a mass of 51 kg (112 lb), was in the shape of an octagonal nut with the radio transmitter in its hole. It consisted of three silver-zinc batteries, ”
“The satellite had a one-watt, 3.5 kg (7.7 lb) radio transmitting unit inside”
“Sputnik also inspired a generation of engineers and scientists.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_1
first production transistor, 1954. first transistor radio 1957
first working example of an integrated circuit on 12 September 1958
Amazing that so much was done without modern electronics!
It never occurred to me that there were vacuum tubes in space.
As for EMP-on-purpose, don’t tell the eco-nuts! It would be just what they wanted, to go back to pre-industrial life. Paper and pencils and oxen not much else.
I did know about core memory and going to the moon with it.
http://www.righto.com/2019/01/inside-apollo-guidance-computers-core.html
http://www.righto.com/2019/07/software-woven-into-wire-core-rope-and.html
68-72. Fast moving times!
@H.R.:
https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-quest-for-the-ultimate-vacuum-tube
Yes, the lowly vacuum tube literally “soldiers on”…
and…
https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/185027-the-vacuum-tube-strikes-back-nasas-tiny-460ghz-vacuum-transistor-that-could-one-day-replace-silicon-fets
And gets smaller and faster…
Yeah, using Helium IMHO makes it a Gas Tube not a real Vacuum Tube, but whatever…
So don’t go dissing on the Vacuum Tube! Still hard at work all over the place, and pushing limits in speed, size, and extreme environments along with higher efficiency than semiconductors…
So depending on who uses how many vacuum tube in their gear, they have better chance of surviving an EMP.
Why I still like vacuum tubes and own some vacuum tube gear ;-)
@Simon Derricutt: Very interesting link to Hector Serrano. Thanks!
RE EMP attacks: I remember reading that most EMP plans included TWO attacks. The first big one destroys most electronics. People then dig out their protected spares and start to reconnect. After a week (or two) a second EMP attack is detonated to take out the emergency spares in use. Conclusion? Don’t dig out your emergency spares until a week or two after the onset.
RE Vacuum tubes in space. Pity those satellites have to be constructed on the ground. If you could build them already in space the vacuum is free and you wouldn’t always need a glass envelope around things. (I am halfway joking about the glass, but I can see that some applications might really need only a very minor sort of shielding.)
Some strange news items from Germany?
1 – Leaky Webex
Luftwaffe brass hold unsecure online Webex meeting about using Taurus missiles to blow up the Kerch Bridge, are shocked when Russia Today publish the full audio recording of their spitball session
https://www.eugyppius.com/p/luftwaffe-brass-hold-unsecure-online
Apparently the top-secret plan was to give the Taurus not to Ukraine troops but to Brits that just happen to be in Ukraine as “advisers/trainers”
2 – Nothing to see here
British soldiers helping fire Ukrainian missiles, Olaf Scholz reveals. German chancellor criticised for ‘flagrant abuse of intelligence’ that could endanger UK personnel on the ground and help the Russians.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/02/28/british-soldiers-help-ukraine-fire-missiles-olaf-scholz/
So, not even a denial that it’s true, just some outrage that he revealed it.
3 – Vorsprung durch Technik
The Greatest Story Never Told: German Virology in Wuhan – and Montana
what about all the German connections to virus research in Wuhan which I have documented here, here, here and here and which involve not just German funding for virus research in Wuhan, but indeed a full-fledged German-Chinese virology lab in Wuhan, which – unlike the Wuhan Institute of Virology – is located right in the area of the initial outbreak of COVID-19 in the city.
https://dailysceptic.org/2024/03/03/the-greatest-story-never-told-german-virology-in-wuhan-and-montana/