I’ll be expanding this posting over time. For right now, I’m putting up a skeleton just to anchor the space and get me doing something.
So what is a Bond Event? They are abnormally cold periods that happen about every 1470 years. We are likely headed into one now, IMHO. While the world panics over heating, it ought ot be planning how to grow more wheat without northern fields like Canada or northern Eurasia.
I’d hoped to not last long enough to reach the next Bond Event, however, we have 3 nagging little points:
1) It’s a 1470 year or so cycle and the last one started about 1470 years ago… take a look at what was happening in about 530 to 540 A.D. It was cold, and dark, and the sun wasn’t very bright… In fact, they called it The Dark Ages.
2) The sun has gone very very quiet. Not pleasing in the context of #1.
3) We’ve had a sudden onset of more cold and more snow at the poles with the oceans cooling starting in 2003 (it takes a while to cool a few gigatons of water…)
Now to me it’s pretty clear that we have a very warm ocean (and will for a few more years) especially in the tropics, putting lots of water into the air – being by definition hot and humid, not snowy… That air then hits a very very cold polar region and dumps boat loads of snow. That than accelerates the run to the cold side…
So we will be in this ‘battle ground’ state for a few more years, but only as long as it takes to cool the ocean enough to make us really wish for the good old days of a warm climate with plenty of food to eat.
Please note: Computer climate models don’t mean a darned thing if they can not explain Bond Events:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1500-year_climate_cycle
It is my opinion that we are watching the early stages of an entry into a Bond Event (and will be for the next 30 years or so) and I can only hope that we find a way to mitigate the extreme cold that is headed our way with the attendant crop failures at northern latitudes. We ought to know in about 15 years… geological time is slow like that, even the fast whip of a 1500 year cycle takes decades to observe at the inflection points.
So welcome to “Bond Event Zero” (copyright E.M. Smith) hold on to your hats, it’s going to be a bumpy ride…
You can expect crop failures, some modest famine, and wars fought over warm places to live. The history of these cold periods (where the historical episodes were named “pessimums” before we knew they were periodic) is not encouraging.
“The Iron Age Cold Epoch (also referred to as Iron Age climate pessimum or Iron Age neoglaciation) was a period of unusually cold climate in the North Atlantic region, lasting from about 900 BC to about 300 BC, with an especially cold wave in 450 BC during the expansion of ancient Greece. It was followed by the Roman Age Optimum (200 BC – 300 AD).”
“The Migration Period Pessimum (also referred to as Dark Ages Cold Period) was a period of cold climate in the North Atlantic region, lasting from about 450 to about 900 AD.[1] It succeeded the Roman Age Optimum and was followed by the Medieval Warm Period.
This Migration Period Pessimum saw the retreat of agriculture, including pasturing as well as cultivation of crops, leading to reforestation in large areas of central Europe and Scandinavia.[2] This period corresponds to the time following the Decline of the Roman Empire around 480 and the Plague of Justinian (541-542).[3] Climatically this period was one of rapid cooling indicated from tree-ring data[4] as well as sea surface temperatures based on diatom stratigraphy in Norwegian Sea[5], which can be correlated with Bond event 1 in the North Atlantic sediments.[6] It was also a period of rising lake levels, increased bog growth and a peak in lake catchment erosion.”
And just until I get a better layout done, here is the text from the wiki page on Bond Events:
Bond event
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
(Redirected from 1500-year climate cycle)
Temperature proxies from GISP2 plus Bond events
Bond events are North Atlantic climate fluctuations occurring every ≈1,470 years throughout the Holocene. Eight such events have been identified. Bond events may be the interglacial relatives of the glacial Dansgaard-Oeschger events.
The theory of 1,500-year climate cycles in the Holocene was postulated by Gerard C. Bond of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University, mainly based on petrologic tracers of drift ice in the North Atlantic.[1][2]
The existence of climatic changes, possibly on a quasi-1,500 year cycle, is well established for the last glacial period from ice cores. Less well established is the continuation of these cycles into the holocene. Bond et al. (1997) argue for a climate cyclicity close to 1470 ± 500 years in the North Atlantic region. In their view, many if not most of the Dansgaard-Oeschger events of the last ice age, conform to a 1,500-year pattern, as do some climate events of later eras, like the Little Ice Age, the 8.2 kiloyear event, and the start of the Younger Dryas.
The North Atlantic ice-rafting events happen to correlate with most weak events of the Asian monsoon over the past 9,000 years,[3][4] as well as with most aridification events in the Middle East.[5] Also, there is widespread evidence that a ≈1,500 yr climate oscillation caused changes in vegetation communities across all of North America.[6]
For reasons that are unclear, the only Holocene Bond event that has a clear temperature signal in the Greenland ice cores is the 8.2 kyr event.[citation needed]
The hypothesis holds that the 1,500-year cycle displays nonlinear behavior and stochastic resonance; not every instance of the pattern is a significant climate event, though some rise to major prominence in environmental history.[7] Causes and determining factors of the cycle are under study; researchers have focused attention on patterns of tides, variations in solar output, and “reorganizations of atmospheric circulation.”[7]
[edit]List of Bond events
Most Bond events do not have a clear climate signal; some correspond to periods of cooling, others are coincident with aridification in some regions.
≈1,400 BP (Bond event 1) — roughly correlates with the Migration Period Pessimum (450–900 AD)
≈2,800 BP (Bond event 2) — roughly correlates with the Iron Age Cold Epoch (900–300 BC)[8]
≈4,200 BP (Bond event 3) — correlates with the 4.2 kiloyear event
≈5,900 BP (Bond event 4) — correlates with the 5.9 kiloyear event
≈8,100 BP (Bond event 5) — correlates with the 8.2 kiloyear event
≈9,400 BP (Bond event 6) — correlates with the Erdalen event of glacier activity in Norway,[9] as well as with a cold event in China.[10]
≈10,300 BP (Bond event 7) — unnamed event
≈11,100 BP (Bond event 8) — coincides with the transition from the Younger Dryas to the boreal
[edit]References
Bond, G.; et al. (1997). “A Pervasive Millennial-Scale Cycle in North Atlantic Holocene and Glacial Climates”. Science 278 (5341): 1257–1266. doi:10.1126/science.278.5341.1257.
Bond, G.; et al. (2001). “Persistent Solar Influence on North Atlantic Climate During the Holocene”. Science 294 (5549): 2130–2136. doi:10.1126/science.1065680.
Gupta, Anil K.; Anderson, David M.; Overpeck, Jonathan T. (2003). “Abrupt changes in the Asian southwest monsoon during the Holocene and their links to the North Atlantic Ocean”. Nature 421 (6921): 354–357. doi:10.1038/nature01340.
Yongjin Wang; et al. (2005). “The Holocene Asian Monsoon: Links to Solar Changes and North Atlantic Climate”. Science 308 (5723): 854–857. doi:10.1126/science.1106296.
Parker, Adrian G.; et al. (2006). “A record of Holocene climate change from lake geochemical analyses in southeastern Arabia”. Quaternary Research 66 (3): 465–476. doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2006.07.001.
Viau, André E.; et al. (2002). “Widespread evidence of 1,500 yr climate variability in North America during the past 14 000 yr”. Geology 30 (5): 455–458. doi:10.1130/0091-7613(2002)0302.0.CO;2.
a b Cox, John D. (2005). Climate Crash: Abrupt Climate Change and What It Means for Our Future. Washington DC: Joseph Henry Press. pp. 150–155. ISBN 0309093120.
Swindles, Graeme T.; Plunkett, Gill; Roe, Helen M. (2007). “A delayed climatic response to solar forcing at 2800 cal. BP: multiproxy evidence from three Irish peatlands”. The Holocene 17 (2): 177–182. doi:10.1177/0959683607075830.
Dahl, Svein Olaf; et al. (2002). “Timing, equilibrium-line altitudes and climatic implications of two early-Holocene glacier readvances during the Erdalen Event at Jostedalsbreen, western Norway”. The Holocene 12 (1): 17–25. doi:10.1191/0959683602hl516rp.
Zhou Jing; Wang Sumin; Yang Guishan; Xiao Haifeng (2007). “Younger Dryas Event and Cold Events in Early-Mid Holocene: Record from the sediment of Erhai Lake”. Advances in Climate Change Research 3 (Suppl.): 1673–1719.
Musings from the Chiefio 
The 4.2 Kiloyear event, or Bond Event 3 from:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4.2_kiloyear_event
4.2 kiloyear event
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 4.2 kiloyear BP aridification event was one of the most severe climatic events of the Holocene period in terms of impact on cultural upheaval. Starting in ≈2200 BC, it probably lasted the entire 22nd century BC. It is very likely to have caused the collapse of the Old Kingdom in Egypt as well as the Akkadian Empire in Mesopotamia.[1] Also, the drought may have initiated southeastward habitat tracking within the Harappan cultural domain.[2]
Contents [hide]
1 Evidence
2 Aftermath
2.1 Ancient Egypt
2.2 Mesopotamia
2.3 Arabian peninsula
2.4 China
3 Further reading
4 External links
5 References
[edit]Evidence
A phase of intense aridity in ≈4.2 ka BP is well recorded across North Africa,[3] the Middle East,[4] the Red Sea,[5] the Arabian peninsula,[6] the Indian subcontinent,[2] and even midcontinental North America.[7] Glaciers throughout the mountain ranges of western Canada advanced at about this time.[8] Evidence has also been found in an Italian cave flowstone,[9] and in Andean glacier ice.[10]
The 22nd century BC drought also correlates with a cooling event in the North Atlantic, known as Bond event 3.[11]
[edit]Aftermath
Ancient Egypt portal
Ancient Near East portal
[edit]Ancient Egypt
In ca. 2150 BC the Old Kingdom was hit by a series of exceptionally low Nile floods, which was instrumental in the sudden collapse of centralized government in ancient Egypt.[12] Famines, social disorder, and fragmentation during a period of approximately 40 years were followed by a phase of rehabilitation and restoration of order in various provinces. Egypt was eventually reunified within a new paradigm of kingship. The process of recovery depended on capable provincial administrators, the deployment of the idea of justice, irrigation projects, and an administrative reform.
[edit]Mesopotamia
The aridification of Mesopotamia may have been related to the onset of cooler sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic (Bond event 3), as analysis of the modern instrumental record shows that large (50%) interannual reductions in Mesopotamian water supply result when subpolar northwest Atlantic sea surface temperatures are anomalously cool.[13] The headwaters of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers are fed by elevation-induced capture of winter Mediterranean rainfall.
The Akkadian Empire — which in 2300 B.C. was the first to subsume independent societies into a single state — was brought low by a wide-ranging, centuries-long drought.[14] Archaeological evidence documents widespread abandonment of the agricultural plains of northern Mesopotamia and dramatic influxes of refugees into southern Mesopotamia around 2170 BC.[15] A 180-km-long wall, the “Repeller of the Amorites,” was built across central Mesopotamia to stem nomadic incursions to the south. Around 2150 BC, the Guti, which originally inhabited the Zagros Mountains, defeated the demoralized Akkadian army, took Akkad, and destroyed it around 2115 BC.
Resettlement of the northern plains by smaller, sedentary populations occurred near 1900 BC, three centuries after the collapse.[15]
[edit]Arabian peninsula
In the Persian Gulf region, there is a sudden change in settlement pattern, style of pottery and tombs at this time. The 22nd century BC drought marks the end of the Umm al-Nar period and the change to the Wadi Suq period.[6]
[edit]China
The drought may have caused the collapse of Neolithic Cultures around Central China during the late third millennium BC.[16]
[edit]Further reading
Ristvet, L. (2003). “Agriculture, Settlement, and Abrupt Climate Change: The 4.2ka BP event in Northern Mesopotamia”. In: American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2003, abstract #PP22C-02.
[edit]External links
The Egyptian Old Kingdom, Sumer and Akkad
The End of the Old Kingdom
[edit]References
^ Gibbons, Ann (1993). “How the Akkadian Empire Was Hung Out to Dry”. Science 261 (5124): 985. doi:10.1126/science.261.5124.985.
^ a b Staubwasser, M.; et al. (2003). “Climate change at the 4.2 ka BP termination of the Indus valley civilization and Holocene south Asian monsoon variability”. Geophysical Research Letters 30 (8): 1425. doi:10.1029/2002GL016822.
^ Gasse, Françoise; Van Campo, Elise (1994). “Abrupt post-glacial climate events in West Asia and North Africa monsoon domains”. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 126 (4): 435–456. doi:10.1016/0012-821X(94)90123-6.
^ Bar-Matthews, Miryam; Ayalon, Avner; Kaufman, Aaron (1997). “Late Quaternary Paleoclimate in the Eastern Mediterranean Region from Stable Isotope Analysis of Speleothems at Soreq Cave, Israel”. Quaternary Research 47 (2): 155–168. doi:10.1006/qres.1997.1883.
^ Arz, Helge W.; et al. (2006). “A pronounced dry event recorded around 4.2 ka in brine sediments from the northern Red Sea”. Quaternary Research 66 (3): 432-441. doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2006.05.006.
^ a b Parker, Adrian G.; et al. (2006). “A record of Holocene climate change from lake geochemical analyses in southeastern Arabia”. Quaternary Research 66 (3): 465–476. doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2006.07.001.
^ Booth, Robert K.; et al. (2005). “A severe centennial-scale drought in midcontinental North America 4200 years ago and apparent global linkages”. The Holocene 15 (3): 321-328. doi:10.1191/0959683605hl825ft.
^ Menounos, B.; et al. (2008). “Western Canadian glaciers advance in concert with climate change circa 4.2 ka”. Geophysical Research Letters 35: L07501. doi:10.1029/2008GL033172.
^ Drysdale, Russell; et al. (2005). “Late Holocene drought responsible for the collapse of Old World civilizations is recorded in an Italian cave flowstone”. Geology 34 (2): 101-104. doi:10.1130/G22103.1.
^ Davis, Mary E.; Thompson, Lonnie G. (2006). “An Andean ice-core record of a Middle Holocene mega-drought in North Africa and Asia”. Annals of Glaciology 43: 34-41.
^ Bond, G.; et al. (1997). “A Pervasive Millennial-Scale Cycle in North Atlantic Holocene and Glacial Climates”. Science 278 (5341): 1257-1266. doi:10.1126/science.278.5341.1257.
^ Stanley, Jean-Daniel; et al. (2003). “Nile flow failure at the end of the Old Kingdom, Egypt: Strontium isotopic and petrologic evidence”. Geoarchaeology 18 (3): 395-402. doi:10.1002/gea.10065.
^ Cullen, Heidi M.; deMenocal, Peter B. (2000). “North Atlantic influence on Tigris-Euphrates streamflow”. International Journal of Climatology 20 (8): 853–863. doi:10.1002/1097-0088(20000630)20:83.0.CO;2-M.
^ Kerr, Richard A. (1998). “Sea-Floor Dust Shows Drought Felled Akkadian Empire”. Science 279 (5349): 325-326. doi:10.1126/science.279.5349.325.
^ a b Weiss, H.; et al. (1993). “The Genesis and Collapse of Third Millennium North Mesopotamian Civilization”. Science 261 (5124): 995–1004. doi:10.1126/science.261.5124.995.
^ Wu Wenxiang; Liu Tungsheng (2004). “Possible role of the “Holocene Event 3” on the collapse of Neolithic Cultures around the Central Plain of China”. Quaternary International 117 (1): 153–166. doi:10.1016/S1040-6182(03)00125-3.
Categories: Ancient Near East stubs | Weather event stubs | Droughts | 22nd century BC | Ancient Near East | History of climate | Ancient Egypt | Akkadian Empire
This page was last modified on 28 March 2009, at 18:08. All text is available under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License.
Bond Event 4 the 5.9 Kiloyear event from:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5.9_kiloyear_event
5.9 kiloyear event
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 5.9 kiloyear event was one of the most intense aridification events during the Holocene. It ended the Neolithic Subpluvial and probably initiated the desiccation of the Sahara desert. Thus, it also triggered world-wide migration to river valleys, e.g. from central North Africa to the Nile valley, what eventually led to the emergence of first complex, highly organised, state-level societies in the 4th millennium BC.[1]
A model by Claussen et al. (1999) suggested rapid desertification associated with vegetation atmosphere interactions following the 5.9 kiloyear cooling event (Bond event 4).[2]
Bond et at. (1997) identified a North Atlantic cooling episode at 5,900 BP from ice-rafted debris, as well as other such now called Bond events that indicate the existence of a quasiperiodic cycle of Atlantic cooling events, which occur approximately every 1500 years.[3] For some reason, all of the earlier of these arid events (including the 8.2 kiloyear event) were followed by recovery, as attested by the wealth of evidence of humid conditions in the Sahara between 10,000 and 6,000 BP.[4] However, it appears that the 5.9 kiloyear event was followed by a partial recovery at best, with accelerated desiccation in the millennium that followed. For example, Cremaschi (1998) describes evidence of rapid aridification in Tadrart Acacus of southwestern Libya, in the form of increased aeolian erosion, sand incursions and the collapse of the roofs of rock shelters.[5]
In the Middle East the 5.9 kiloyear event led to the abrupt end of the Ubaid period.[6]
The 5.9 kiloyear event was also recorded as a cold event in the Erhai Lake (China) sediments.[7]
[edit]References
^ Brooks, Nick (2006). “Cultural responses to aridity in the Middle Holocene and increased social complexity”. Quaternary International 151 (1): 29–49. doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2006.01.013.
^ Claussen, Mark; et al. (1999). “Simulation of an Abrupt Change in Saharan Vegetation in the Mid-Holocene”. Geophysical Research Letters 26 (14): 2037–2040.
^ Bond, G.; et al. (1997). “A Pervasive Millennial-Scale Cycle in North Atlantic Holocene and Glacial Climates”. Science 278 (5341): 1257-1266. doi:10.1126/science.278.5341.1257.
^ Petit-Maire, N.; Beufort, L.; Page, N. (1997). “Holocene climate change and man in the present day Sahara desert”. in Nüzhet Dalfes, H.; Kukla, G.; Weiss, H. (Eds.). Third Millennium BC Climate Change and Old World Collapse. Berlin: Springer. pp. 297–308. ISBN 3540618929.
^ Cremaschi, M. (1998). “Late Quaternary geological evidence for environmental changes in south-western Fezzan (Libyan Sahara)”. in Cremaschi, M.; Di Lernia, S. (Eds.). Wadi Teshuinat: Palaeoenvironment and prehistory in south-western Fezzan (Libyan Sahara). Firenze: Ed. All’ Insegna del Giglio. pp. 13–47. ISBN 8878141445.
^ Parker, Adrian G.; et al. (2006). “A record of Holocene climate change from lake geochemical analyses in southeastern Arabia”. Quaternary Research 66 (3): 465–476. doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2006.07.001.
^ Zhou Jing; Wang Sumin; Yang Guishan; Xiao Haifeng (2007). “Younger Dryas Event and Cold Events in Early-Mid Holocene: Record from the sediment of Erhai Lake”. Advances in Climate Change Research 3 (Suppl.): 1673–1719.
This article related to a specific weather event is a stub. You can help Wikipedia by expanding it.
Categories: 4th millennium BC | Droughts | Ancient Near East | History of climate | Ancient Egypt | Weather event stubs
This page was last modified on 31 May 2008, at 12:39. All text is available under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License. (See Copyrights for details.)
Bond Event 5 the 8.2 kiloyear event from:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8.2_kiloyear_event
8.2 kiloyear event
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
GISP2 ice core temperature reconstruction with Bond events; the 8.2 kyr event is number 5.
The 8.2 kiloyear event is the term that climatologists have adopted for a sudden decrease in global temperatures that occurred approximately 8,200 years before the present, or c. 6200 BCE, and which lasted for the next two to four centuries. Milder than the Younger Dryas cold spell that preceded it, but more severe than the Little Ice Age that would follow, the 8.2 kiloyear cooling was a significant exception to general trends of the Holocene climatic optimum.
A rapid cooling in 8,200 BP was first identified by Swiss botanist Heinrich Zoller in 1960, who named the event Misox oscillation (for the Val Mesolcina).[1] It is also known as Finse event in Norway.[2] Bond et al. argued that the origin of the 8.2 kiloyear event is linked to a 1,500-year climate cycle; it correlates with Bond event 5.[3]
The strongest evidence for the event comes from the North Atlantic region; the disruption in climate shows clearly in Greenland ice cores and in sedimentary and other records of the temporal and tropical North Atlantic.[4][5][6] It is less evident in ice cores from Antarctica and in South American indices.[7][8] The effects of the cold snap were global, however, most notably in changes in sea level during the relevant era.
The 8.2 Ka cooling event may have been caused by a large meltwater pulse from the final collapse of the Laurentide ice sheet of northeastern North America—most likely when the glacial Lake Ojibway & glacial Lake Agassiz suddenly drained into the North Atlantic Ocean.[9][10][11] (The same type of action produced the Missoula floods that created the Channeled scablands of the Columbia River basin.) The meltwater pulse may have affected the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation, reducing northward heat transport in the Atlantic and causing significant circum-North Atlantic cooling. Estimates of the cooling vary and depend somewhat on the interpretation of the proxy data, but changes of around 1 to 5 °C (1 to 11 °F) have been reported. Further afield, some tropical records report a 3 °C (5 °F) from “cores drilled into an ancient coral reef in Indonesia.”[12] The event also caused a global CO2 decline of ≈25 ppm by volume over ≈300 years.[13] However, the dating and interpretation of this and other tropical sites are more ambiguous than the North Atlantic sites.
Cooler and drier conditions prevailed, as in the Younger Dryas though less extreme. Yet the changes may have been severe enough to impact one of the earliest settled human communities: the first phase of Catal Huyuk ended during the 8.2 kiloyear event. The site was abandoned and not re-occupied until about 5 centuries later, when climate conditions had improved markedly.
Drier conditions were notable in North Africa, while East Africa suffered five centuries of general drought. In West Asia and especially Mesopotamia, the 8.2ky event was a three-hundred year aridification and cooling episode, which provided the natural force for Mesopotamian irrigation agriculture and surplus production that were essential for the earliest class-formation and urban life. However multi-centennial changes around the same period are difficult to link specifically to the approximately 100-year abrupt event as recorded most clearly in the Greenland ice cores.
The initial meltwater pulse may have raised sea levels by as much as 1.2 meters (4 ft.), but the cooling that followed allowed a glacial advance and consequent marine regression. After two centuries, or by 8,000 ybp (6000 BCE), global sea level had dropped by 14 m (46 ft). After that point, however, milder climate conditions re-asserted themselves; by 7,800 ybp (5800 BCE) the global climate returned to pre-event levels.
In 2003, the Office of Net Assessment at the United States Department of Defense was commissioned to produce a study on the likely and potential effects of a modern climate change.[14] The study, conducted under ONA head Andrew Marshall, modelled its prospective climate change on the 8.2 kiloyear event, precisely because it was the middle alternative between the Younger Dryas and the Little Ice Age. The study caused a controversy when it was made public in 2004.[15]
[edit]See also
Sahara pump theory
1500-year climate cycle
Antarctic Cold Reversal
Little Ice Age
Older Peron
Piora Oscillation
Younger Dryas
[edit]References
^ Zoller, Heinrich (1960). “Pollenanalytische Untersuchungen zur Vegetationsgeschichte der insubrischen Schweiz” (in German). Denkschriften der Schweizerischen Naturforschenden Gesellschaft 83: 45–156. ISSN 0366-970X.
^ Nesje, Atle; Dahl, Svein Olaf (2001). “The Greenland 8200 cal. yr BP event detected in loss-on-ignition profiles in Norwegian lacustrine sediment sequences”. Journal of Quaternary Science 16 (2): 155–166. doi:10.1002/jqs.567.
^ Bond, G.; et al. (1997). “A Pervasive Millennial-Scale Cycle in North Atlantic Holocene and Glacial Climates”. Science 278 (5341): 1257–1266. doi:10.1126/science.278.5341.1257.
^ Alley, R. B.; et al. (1997). “Holocene climatic instability; a prominent, widespread event 8,200 yr ago”. Geology 25 (6): 483–486. doi:10.1130/0091-7613(1997)0252.3.CO;2.
^ Alley, Richard B.; Ágústsdóttir, Anna Maria (2005). “The 8k event: cause and consequences of a major Holocene abrupt climate change”. Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (10-11): 1123–1149. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.12.004.
^ Sarmaja-Korjonen, Kaarina (2007). “Abrupt and consistent responses of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems to the 8200 cal. yr cold event: a lacustrine record from Lake Arapisto, Finland”. The Holocene 17 (4): 457–467. doi:10.1177/0959683607077020.
^ Burroughs, William J. [ed.] (2003). Climate: Into the 21st Century. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0521792029.
^ Ljung, K.; et al. (2007). “South Atlantic island record reveals a South Atlantic response to the 8.2kyr event”. Climate of the Past 4: 35–45.
^ Ehlers, Jürgen; Gibbard, Philip L. (2004). Quaternary Glaciations – Extent and Chronology. Part II: North America. Amsterdam: Elsevier. pp. 257–262. ISBN 0444515925.
^ Barber, D. C.; et al. (1999). “Forcing of the cold event 8,200 years ago by catastrophic drainage of Laurentide Lakes”. Nature 400: 344–348. doi:10.1038/22504.
^ Ellison, Christopher R. W.; Chapman, Mark R.; Hall, Ian R. (2006). “Surface and Deep Ocean Interactions During the Cold Climate Event 8200 Years Ago”. Science 312 (5782): 1929–1932. doi:10.1126/science.1127213.
^ Fagan, Brian (2004). The Long Summer: How Climate Changed Civilization. New York: Basic Books. pp. 107–108. ISBN 0465022812.
^ Wagner, Friederike; et al. (2002). “Rapid atmospheric CO2 changes associated with the 8,200-years-B.P. cooling event”. PNAS 99 (19): 12011–12014. doi:10.1073/pnas.182420699.
^ Schwartz, Peter; Randall, Doug (October 2003). An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security.
^ Stripp, David (February 9, 2004). “The Pentagon’s Weather Nightmare”. Fortune.
Categories: Climate | Climatology | History of climate | 7th millennium BC
This page was last modified on 25 March 2009, at 19:14. All text is available under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License. (See Copyrights for details.)
Bond Event 6 correlates with the Erdalen event of glacier activity in Norway, as well as with a cold event in China and Bond Event 7 was unnamed.
Bond event 8, the Younger Dryas, from :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas
and followed by a warm period, the Boreal:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boreal_(period)
(text to be saved later)
Younger Dryas
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Three temperature records, the GRIP sequence (red) clearly showing the Younger Dryas event at around 11 kyr BP
The Younger Dryas stadial, named after the alpine/tundra wildflower Dryas octopetala, and also referred to as the Big Freeze,[1] was a geologically brief (approximately 1,300 ± 70 years) cold climate period following the Bölling/Allerød interstadial at the end of the Pleistocene between approximately 12,800 to 11,500 years Before Present,[2] and preceding the Preboreal of the early Holocene. In Ireland, the period has been known as the Nahanagan Stadial, while in the UK it has been called the Loch Lomond Stadial and most recently Greenland Stadial 1 (GS1).[3]
The Younger Dryas (GS1) is also a Blytt-Sernander climate period detected from layers in north European bog peat. It is dated approximately 12,900-11,500 BP calibrated, or 11,000-10,000 BP uncalibrated. An Older Dryas stadial had preceded the Allerød, approximately 1,000 years before the Younger Dryas; it lasted 300 years.[4]
Contents [hide]
1 Abrupt climate change
2 Was the Younger Dryas global?
3 Causes of the Younger Dryas
4 The end of the Younger Dryas
5 The Younger Dryas and the beginning of agriculture
6 The Younger Dryas in contemporary culture and writing
7 See also
8 References
9 External links
[edit]Abrupt climate change
The Younger Dryas saw a rapid return to glacial conditions in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere between 12,900–11,500 years before present (BP)[5] in sharp contrast to the warming of the preceding interstadial deglaciation. The transitions each occurred over a period of a decade or so.[6] Thermally fractionated nitrogen and argon isotope data from Greenland ice core GISP2 indicates that the summit of Greenland was ~15°C colder during the Younger Dryas[6] than today. In the UK, coleopteran (fossil beetle) evidence suggests mean annual temperature dropped to approximately 5°C,[7] and periglacial conditions prevailed in lowland areas, while icefields and glaciers formed in upland areas.[8] Nothing of the size, extent, or rapidity of this period of abrupt climate change has been experienced since.[5]
[edit]Was the Younger Dryas global?
Answering this question is hampered by the lack of a precise definition of “Younger Dryas” in all the records. In western Europe and Greenland, the Younger Dryas is a well-defined synchronous cool period.[9] But cooling in the tropical North Atlantic may have preceded this by a few hundred years; South America shows a less well defined initiation but a sharp termination. The Antarctic Cold Reversal appears to have started a thousand years before the Younger Dryas, and has no clearly defined start or end; Huybers has argued that there is fair confidence in the absence of the Younger Dryas in Antarctica, New Zealand and parts of Oceania.[citation needed] Timing of the tropical counterpart to the Younger Dryas – the Deglaciation Climate Reversal (DCR) – is difficult to establish as low latitude ice core records generally lack independent dating over this interval. An example of this is the Sajama ice core (Bolivia), for which the timing of the DCR has been pinned to that of the GISP2 ice core record (central Greenland). Climatic change in the central Andes during the DCR, however, was significant and characterized by a shift to much wetter, and likely colder, conditions.[10] The magnitude and abruptness of these changes would suggest that low latitude climate did not respond passively during the YD/DCR.
In western North America it is likely that the effects of the Younger Dryas were less intense than in Europe; however, evidence of glacial re-advance[11] indicates Younger Dryas cooling occurred in the Pacific Northwest.
Other features seen include:
Replacement of forest in Scandinavia with glacial tundra (which is the habitat of the plant Dryas octopetala).
Glaciation or increased snow in mountain ranges around the world.
Formation of solifluction layers and loess deposits in Northern Europe.
More dust in the atmosphere, originating from deserts in Asia.
Drought in the Levant, perhaps motivating the Natufian culture to invent agriculture.
The Huelmo/Mascardi Cold Reversal in the Southern Hemisphere began slightly before the Younger Dryas and ended at the same time.
Decline of the Clovis Culture and extinction of animal species in North America.
[edit]Causes of the Younger Dryas
The prevailing theory holds that the Younger Dryas was caused by a significant reduction or shutdown of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to a sudden influx of fresh water from Lake Agassiz and deglaciation in North America.[12] The global climate would then have become locked into the new state until freezing removed the fresh water “lid” from the north Atlantic Ocean. This theory does not explain why South America cooled first.
Previous glacial terminations probably did not have Younger Dryas-like events, suggesting that its cause has a random component. Nevertheless, there is evidence that Termination II had a post glacial cooling period similar to the Younger Dryas but lasting longer and being more severe.[citation needed]
There is evidence that the so-called Younger Dryas impact event, 12,900 years ago in North America could have initiated the Younger Dryas cooling and population bottleneck or near extinction of the Clovis people.[13]
[edit]The end of the Younger Dryas
Measurements of oxygen isotopes from the GISP2 ice core suggest the ending of the Younger Dryas took place over just 40 – 50 years in three discrete steps, each lasting five years. Other proxy data, such as dust concentration, and snow accumulation, suggest an even more rapid transition, requiring a ~7 °C warming in just a few years;[5] [6] [14] [15] the total warming was 10°±4°.[16]
The end of the Younger Dryas has been dated to around 9620 BC (11550 calendar years BP, occurring at 10000 radiocarbon years BP, a “radiocarbon plateau”) by a variety of methods, with mostly consistent results:
11530±50 BP — GRIP ice core, Greenland [17]
11530+40-60 BP — Kråkenes Lake, western Norway. [18]
11570 BP — Cariaco Basin core, Venezuela [19]
11570 BP — German oak/pine dendrochronology [20]
11640±280 BP — GISP2 ice core, Greenland [14]
[edit]The Younger Dryas and the beginning of agriculture
The Younger Dryas is often linked to the adoption of agriculture in the Levant.[21] It is argued that the cold and dry Younger Dryas lowered the carrying capacity of the area and forced the sedentary Early Natufian population into a more mobile subsistence pattern. Further climatic deterioration is thought to have brought about cereal cultivation. While there exists relative consensus regarding the role of the Younger Dryas in the changing subsistence patterns during the Natufian, its connection to the beginning of agriculture at the end of the period is still being debated.[22] See the Neolithic Revolution, when hunter gatherers turned to farming.
[edit]The Younger Dryas in contemporary culture and writing
The failure of North Atlantic thermohaline circulation is used to explain rapid climate change in some of Kim Stanley Robinson’s novels, particularly Fifty Degrees Below. It also underpinned the 1999 book, The Coming Global Superstorm. Likewise, the idea of rapid climate change caused by disruption of North Atlantic ocean currents creates the setting for 2004 apocalyptic science-fiction film The Day After Tomorrow. Similar sudden cooling events have featured in other novels, such as John Christopher’s The World in Winter, though not always with the same explicit links to the Younger Dryas event as is the case of Robinson’s work.
[edit]See also
1500-year climate cycle
Timeline of glaciation
Timeline of environmental events
Older Dryas
Oldest Dryas
Little Ice Age
Medieval Warm Period
[edit]References
^ Berger, W. H. (1990). “The Younger Dryas cold spell — a quest for causes”. Global and Planetary Change 3 (3): 219–237. doi:10.1016/0921-8181(90)90018-8.
^ Muscheler, Raimund; et al. (2008). “Tree rings and ice cores reveal 14C calibration uncertainties during the Younger Dryas”. Nature Geoscience 1: 263–267. doi:10.1038/ngeo128.
^ See INTIMATE Project (Integration of Ice, Marine and Terrestrial records), an INQUA Palaeoclimate subcommittee.
^ Holocene and Blytt-Sernander Sequence
^ a b c Alley, Richard B. (2000). “The Younger Dryas cold interval as viewed from central Greenland”. Quaternary Science Reviews 19 (1): 213–226. doi:10.1016/S0277-3791(99)00062-1.
^ a b c Alley, Richard B.; et al. (1993). “Abrupt accumulation increase at the Younger Dryas termination in the GISP2 ice core”. Nature 362: 527–529. doi:10.1038/362527a0.
^ Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.; et al. (1998). “Timing of abrupt climate change at the end of the Younger Dryas interval from thermally fractionated gases in polar ice”. Nature 391: 141–146. doi:10.1038/34346.
^ Atkinson, T. C.; et al. (1987). “Seasonal temperatures in Britain during the past 22,000 years, reconstructed using beetle remains”. Nature 325: 587–592. doi:10.1038/325587a0.
^ How Stable was the Holocene Climate?
^ Thompson, L. G.; et al. (2000). “Ice-core palaeoclimate records in tropical South America since the Last Glacial Maximum”. Journal of Quaternary Science 15 (4): 377–394. doi:10.1002/1099-1417(200005)15:43.0.CO;2-L.
^ Friele, P. A.; Clague, J. J. (2002). “Younger Dryas readvance in Squamish river valley, southern Coast mountains, British Columbia”. Quaternary Science Reviews 21: 1925–1933. doi:10.1016/S0277-3791(02)00081-1.
^ Broecker, Wallace S. (2006). “Was the Younger Dryas Triggered by a Flood?”. Science 312 (5777): 1146–1148. doi:10.1126/science.1123253. PMID 16728622.
^ Kennett DJ, Kennett JP, West A, et al (January 2009). “Nanodiamonds in the younger dryas boundary sediment layer”. Science (journal) 323 (5910): 94. doi:10.1126/science.1162819. PMID 19119227.
^ a b Sissons, J. B. (1979). “The Loch Lomond stadial in the British Isles”. Nature 280: 199–203. doi:10.1038/280199a0.
^ Dansgaard, W.; et al. (1989). “The abrupt termination of the Younger Dryas climate event”. Nature 339: 532–534. doi:10.1038/339532a0.
^ Kobashia, Takuro; et al. (2008). “4 ± 1.5 °C abrupt warming 11,270 years ago identified from trapped air in Greenland ice”. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 268 (3-4): 397–407. doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2008.01.032.
^ Taylor, K. C.; et al. (1997). “The Holocene-Younger Dryas transition recorded at Summit, Greenland”. Science 278 (5339): 825–827. doi:10.1126/science.278.5339.825.
^ Spurk, M.; et al. (1998). “Revisions and extension of the Hohenheim oak and pine chronologies: New evidence about the timing of the Younger Dryas/Preboreal transition”. Radiocarbon 40 (3): 1107–1116.
^ Gulliksen, Steinar; et al. (1998). “A calendar age estimate of the Younger Dryas-Holocene boundary at Krakenes, western Norway”. Holocene 8: 249–259. doi:10.1191/095968398672301347.
^ Hughen, Konrad A.; et al. (2000). “Synchronous Radiocarbon and Climate Shifts During the Last Deglaciation”. Science 290 (5498): 1951–1954. doi:10.1126/science.290.5498.1951. PMID 11110659.
^ Bar-Yosef, O. and A. Belfer-Cohen: “Facing environmental crisis. Societal and cultural changes at the transition from the Younger Dryas to the Holocene in the Levant.” In: The Dawn of Farming in the Near East. Edited by R.T.J. Cappers and S. Bottema, pp. 55-66. Studies in Early Near Eastern Production, Subsistence and Environment 6. Berlin: Ex oriente.
^ Munro, N. D. (2003). “Small game, the younger dryas, and the transition to agriculture in the southern levant”. Mitteilungen der Gesellschaft für Urgeschichte 12: 47–64.
[edit]External links
Study Confirms Mechanism for Current Shutdowns, European Cooling, Oregon State University press release (10 April 2007)
Younger Dryas Caused by ET Impact
W. S. Broecker, “What If the Conveyor Were to Shut Down? Reflections on a Possible Outcome of the Great Global Experiment”
Paul A. Mayewski and Michael Bender, “The GISP2 ice core record: The Younger Dryas”
ARIC Global Climate Change Student Guide 5.3.2.1. The Younger Dryas Event
William C. Calvin, “The great climate flip-flop” adapted from Atlantic Monthly, 281(1):47-64 (January 1998).
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, “Two examples of abrupt climate change: 1. The Younger Dryas”
Lev Tarasov and W.R. Peltier, “Arctic freshwater forcing of the Younger Dryas cold reversal” letter, in Nature 435, 662-665 (2 June 2005)
“Hugheus radiocarbon and climate shifts during the last deglaciation”
Friedrich, M., et al. (1999), Paleo-environment and radiocarbon calibration as derived from Lateglacial/Early Holocene tree-ring chronologies
Younger Dryas (YD) Impact AGU Press Conference – YouTube Playlist
Exploding asteroid theory strengthened by new evidence located in Ohio, Indiana (July 2008)
Evidence for an extraterrestrial impact 12,900 years ago that contributed to the megafaunal extinctions and the Younger Dryas cooling
Categories: Pleistocene | Climate | History of climate | Nordic Stone Age | Stone Age Europe | Palynology
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The Migration Era Pessimum via Google’s cache:
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Migration Period Pessimum
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Temperature record of the last 2000 years
The Migration Period Pessimum (also referred to as Dark Ages Cold Period) was a period of cold climate in the North Atlantic region, lasting from about 450 to about 900 AD.[1] It succeeded the Roman Age Optimum and was followed by the Medieval Warm Period.
This Migration Period Pessimum saw the retreat of agriculture, including pasturing as well as cultivation of crops, leading to reforestation in large areas of central Europe and Scandinavia.[2] This period corresponds to the time following the Decline of the Roman Empire around 480 and the Plague of Justinian (541-542).[3] Climatically this period was one of rapid cooling indicated from tree-ring data[4] as well as sea surface temperatures based on diatom stratigraphy in Norwegian Sea[5], which can be correlated with Bond event 1 in the North Atlantic sediments.[6] It was also a period of rising lake levels, increased bog growth and a peak in lake catchment erosion.
[edit]References
^ Desprat, Stéphanie; Sánchez Goñia, María Fernanda; Loutre, Marie-France (2003). “Revealing climatic variability of the last three millennia in northwestern Iberia using pollen influx data”. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 213 (1-2): 63-78. doi:10.1016/S0012-821X(03)00292-9.
^ Andersen, S. T.; Berglund, B. E. (1994). “Maps for terrestrial non-tree pollen (NAP) percentages in north and central Europe 1800 and 1450 yr BP”. Paläoklimaforschung 12: 119–134.
^ Ambrosiani, B. (1984). “Settlement expansion—settlement contraction: a question of war, plague or climate?” In: Morner, N.-A.; Karlén, W. (Eds.), Climatic Changes on a Yearly to Millennial Basis. Dordrecht:Reidel Publishing Company, pp. 241–247.
^ Eronen, M.; Hyvärinen, H.; Zetterberg, P. (1999). “Holocene humidity changes in northern Finnish Lapland inferred from lake sediments and submerged Scots pines dated by tree-rings”. The Holocene 9: 569–580.
^ Jansen, E.; Koc, N. (2000). “Century to decadal scale records of Norwegian sea surface temperature variations of the past 2 millenia”. PAGES Newsletter 8 (1): 13–14.
^ Bond, G.; et al. (1997). “A Pervasive Millennial-Scale Cycle in North Atlantic Holocene and Glacial Climates”. Science 278 (5341): 1257-1266. doi:10.1126/science.278.5341.1257.
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Responding to a thread on WUWT:
Adolfo Giurfa (11:16:03) :
E.M.Smith Kind of Deja-Vu with present times, don’ t you think?
“This period corresponds to the time following the Decline of the Roman Empire around 480 and the Plague of Justinian (541-542).”
Unfortunately, that is not the only parallel. There is a regular cycle of empires rising and culture flourishing during the Optimum warm periods and then the collapse of empire and destruction of culture during the following Pessimum or cold periods.
IFF we could learn from this and prepare, we could get off of this wheel of fortune… but we seem incapable as a species.
Younger Dryas – cold period. 11,100 years Before Present. Bond Event 8.
End of the Clovis People in North America. Disruptive cold globally.
Boreal – the following warm period when England and Ireland became islands and Eurasia began the march to civilization:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boreal_(period)
“Those who stayed became hunter-gatherers of the forests and fishers of the numerous bays, inlets and shallow waters around the thousands of islands that now spangled the seas of Europe. They lived richly and were encouraged to enter the pre-productive phase that we call the Mesolithic. Those who moved east hunted out the last of wild big game and turned their best efforts into learning to herd what was left. In the Americas, humans had left the Paleoindian phase and were now in the Archaic.
Meanwhile humanity toward the south of the north temperate zone had already turned to food production in a number of widely separated locations and were on the brink of civilization. ”
Bond Event 7 – un-named about 10,400 BP.
Bond Event 6 – The Erdalen event in Norway and a cold China 9400 BP
Bond Event 5 – 8100 BP. The 8.2 Kiloyear Event. From:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8.2_kiloyear_event
“Cooler and drier conditions prevailed, as in the Younger Dryas though less extreme. Yet the changes may have been severe enough to impact one of the earliest settled human communities: the first phase of Catal Huyuk ended during the 8.2 kiloyear event. The site was abandoned and not re-occupied until about 5 centuries later, when climate conditions had improved markedly.
Drier conditions were notable in North Africa, while East Africa suffered five centuries of general drought. In West Asia and especially Mesopotamia, the 8.2ky event was a three-hundred year aridification and cooling episode, which provided the natural force for Mesopotamian irrigation agriculture and surplus production that were essential for the earliest class-formation and urban life. ”
Bond Event 4 – 5900 BP From:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5.9_kiloyear_event
“The 5.9 kiloyear event was one of the most intense aridification events during the Holocene. It ended the Neolithic Subpluvial and probably initiated the desiccation of the Sahara desert. Thus, it also triggered world-wide migration to river valleys, e.g. from central North Africa to the Nile valley, what eventually led to the emergence of first complex, highly organised, state-level societies in the 4th millennium BC.”
“In the Middle East the 5.9 kiloyear event led to the abrupt end of the Ubaid period.
The 5.9 kiloyear event was also recorded as a cold event in the Erhai Lake (China) sediments.”
Followed by the rise of the Egyptian empire and the birth of civilization.
Bond Event 3 – 4200 BP From:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4.2_kiloyear_event
“The 4.2 kiloyear BP aridification event was one of the most severe climatic events of the Holocene period in terms of impact on cultural upheaval. Starting in ≈2200 BC, it probably lasted the entire 22nd century BC. It is very likely to have caused the collapse of the Old Kingdom in Egypt as well as the Akkadian Empire in Mesopotamia. Also, the drought may have initiated southeastward habitat tracking within the Harappan cultural domain.”
“In the Persian Gulf region, there is a sudden change in settlement pattern, style of pottery and tombs at this time. The 22nd century BC drought marks the end of the Umm al-Nar period and the change to the Wadi Suq period.”
“China. The drought may have caused the collapse of Neolithic Cultures around Central China during the late third millennium BC.”
Followed by the rise of the New Kingdom in Egypt and several other cultures flourishing in the following warm period
Bond Event 2 – 2800 BP From:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Age_Cold_Epoch
“The Iron Age Cold Epoch (also referred to as Iron Age climate pessimum or Iron Age neoglaciation) was a period of unusually cold climate in the North Atlantic region, lasting from about 900 BC to about 300 BC, with an especially cold wave in 450 BC during the expansion of ancient Greece. It was followed by the Roman Age Optimum (200 BC – 300 AD).”
Notice that this was about the time that Egypt sliding into ruin and a lot of history of warfare was being written… This wiki page also has the link to the Roman Age Optimum that is now dead… Wouldn’t want to point out that the golden age of Rome was built on the bones of a cold period (and was followed by a cold period collapse) and that the golden age of Egypt was in a prior warm period… and so the cycle turns.
Bond Event 1 – 1400 BP (or about 450 to 900 AD) which used to link to the page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Migration_Period_Pessimum that has been eaten by the AGW Langoliers… but:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Migration_Period
Gives a PC version where the invasions of people escaping the cold frozen central Eurasian Steps is call “emigration” or “migration”. When I learned that history 40+ years ago we called it war and invasion… but what’s a few armies, swords, murder and mayhem among friends. Just notice that other than the folks in Carthage attacking Rome all the travel seems to be toward the more southern warmer places… wonder why…
It is also called the Dark Ages:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_Ages
Which of course was followed by the Medieval Warm Period:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period
“The Medieval Warm Period was a time of warm weather around AD 800-1300 during the European Medieval period. Initial research on the MWP and the following Little Ice Age (LIA) was largely done in Europe, where the phenomenon was most obvious and clearly documented”
This period was also the lead-in to the Renaissnace
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance
That most of us would admit was a pretty good time for culture and growth of humanity…
Now we have an anomaly. An anomaly to the cold side. We had the Little Ice Age. At about 1/2 the Bond Event cycle, it got cold. We don’t know if this was a 1/2 cycle sub oscillation or was the start of a drop into the next Bond Event and they onset with steps or waves, or just a continuation of the very long term drift to colder weather as we exit this interglacial. An anomaly to the cold side does not argue for warming happening (yet that is what the AGW folks do, by choosing a baseline at the bottom of the LIA).
The Little Ice Age that had a lot of trauma in the world (little things, like Napoleon discovering it was a bad time to invade Russia; and a wholesale emptying of Europe into the new world as they ran away from famine and cold; and the French Revolution when crops failed, and…) That was only a minor taste of what a Bond Event might be. The 178 ish year little brother cycle…
So what does all this mean to me?
This time is not different.
We are in a 10,000 year downward tilting slope into the next ice age.
We have a 1500 year climate cycle that can not be explained nor disappeared. It’s time to get cold. Very cold. And nobody knows why.
We had a preview of what’s to come in the LIA.
We are doing nothing to prepare.
The AGW folks are exactly backwards because they see too short a time frame. They are looking at a minor correction warmer from an unexpected cold interval in a longer term cold trend, and ignoring a proven 1500 year cycle and a 100,000 year glacial cycle.
So now we have the modern optimum. This time it will be different…
(BTW “It’s Different This Time!” is a standard stock traders sarchasm for the folly people regularly show in not learning from their history – It Is never different this time, ever.)
The only good news in all this is that it typically takes a while for empires to collapse and cultures to decay; and we have more technology with which to cope, when we finally realize we ought to be doing something other than watching entertainment and looking for a party. (Shades of Rome…)
So I am quietly hopeful that we can cope, given all the tools we have, and hopeful that the folly of AGW will be shown wrong rather soon; especially given all the snow that stacking up… I give it about 2 years minimum and 15 years maximum.
Then we can start building grain storage, expanding greenhouses, building more power plants, improving hydroponic infrastructure, putting desalination plants near deserts, etc. etc.
Oh, the thread is at:
I’m not worried at all about warm. I had all of my pants taken up two inches, so I’m good to go.
Cold and dry is another problem. Without sufficient energy generation and distribution, there will be lots of death and suffering.
BTW, it makes sense that cold and dry go together. Less moisture evaporating into the atmosphere => fewer clouds => less rain.
You say that the next fifteen years should give us valuable info … however, the question is are there fifteen years left?
It would be interesting to look at events from 530 to 540 AD and see how systems reacted and what level of consumption etc overshoot there was.
Expansion of alpine glaciers in Pacific North America in the first millennium A.D.
@Richard Sharpe:
Thanks for the glacier link, very interesting!
Notice that I said 2 years to 15 max. My opinion is that we’ll know a lot closer to 2 than to 15, but there is the chance that this solar cycle will actually start some day, and that would mean about a 9 year warmer (or less colder ;-) cycle (assuming that sunspots correlate with solar output and earth warming); then the actual cooling could begin in ernest at the next solar cycle and we’d really know about 6 years into it (i.e. about 1/2 way…) thus my 15 max. I’m also pretty sure it will take a few more years to cool down the oceans significantly, so they will provide some thermal buffering.
Basically, my estimate comes down to “it depends on Solar Cycle 24 starting, or not”. If it stays a dead cycle, we know in about 2 or 3 years of continued increasing very very cold. If 24 starts, it ought to be weak and over fast, and then the plummet continues about 9 years out and we get walloped then. In any case, if we get back on a strong warming run, we have a “never mind” answer and can all go to the beach ;-)
While I would very much like to be completely wrong on this (I have a family that I’d really rather had a warm and productive planet to live in…) I have to go where facts lead me, not where I’d like to go. Where the facts lead me is pretty simple:
The odds are, IMHO, that this is the entry to Bond Event Zero. I can hope that something holds it off another 70 years or I can hope that “this time it’s different” and its a weak one with no significant impact, or I can hope that I’m just reading the signals wrong and the solar cycle has nothing to do with it or if we’re lucky the LIA was it already but a bit out of cycle… But hope is not a strategy and luck is not a process…
That means that for the next few years I’m going to be getting some of my “preparedness kits” back in shape (I’ve neglected them since the Loma Prieta quake, figuring I’d had my ‘big one’ and could let things slide…) and taking some steps to be best positioned for “unexpected” cold and some crop failures. And keeping a nervous eye on the global volcanos and hoping that we don’t get “a big one” as we have in prior solar Grand Minima and Bond Events. If I’m wrong, I’ve used a little time to make some preparations that will be helpful even if the only thing that happens is I have to live without a paycheck for a while. If I’m right, it turns a catastrophe into a manageable event. I consider that simple prudence.
So take what comfort you can from the fact that geological time runs to a much slower clock and even if this is Bond Event Zero, it could take 50 years to really get rolling!
Why don’t you email me so we can discuss these things?
Something you might want to look at
http://www.ees1.lanl.gov/Wohletz/Krakatau.htm
@ a lang:
Nice write up in the link. I’d read a couple of books about Krakatau, but didn’t have a good link for it.
I’m fairly certain that in fact Krakatau did cause the dark ages, but there is a small possibility it was a slightly different volcano. The historical records are rather confused largely due to the collapse of civilizations (plural) all over the world. The written records get really flakey to non-existent right after the KaBoom!
This requires a thread of it’s own.
Fascinating- a drop in mean temperatures of 5 degrees C in a week or so !!!!!
@jim papsdorf
Yup. But “the science is settled” and the climate would be absolutely stable but for your soda pop fizz and light bulbs… The AGW thesis is so out of touch with real geologic history.
535 AD was a Volcano. This is well known.
2200 BC was the Umm el Binnah crater in Iraq.
….OK: this is only a maybe.
I’m uncomfortable with the wide range of possible yeears ie: 1470 years +/- 300.
ca. 5000 BP — The Sahara Green ended
— at the time the Kansas-Nebraska Sand Dunes greened
— because that Climate Pattern MATCHES the Ewing-Donner Theory of Ice Ages — Donner calculated it as the WEATHER pattern imposed by an open Arctic !
See recent articles on North Greenland, where terraced beach formation there ended at ~ 5000 bp confirming this is when the Arctic first Iced over in Summer. I figure the 19 degree temp rise at the end of the Y. Dryas in mostly a single year WAS the melting off of the Arctic Ocean.
Once open, the Arctic Ocean changes from reflective white to absorbing dark blue:
3% of the Earth’s surface x 55% OF AVERAGE SUN @ a change of 60% absorption …. Compare to the Earth’s average increase from the Sun being 500 degrees F at 61% absorption …. so 1.6% of 500 / HALF the Earth = 16 degrees in the North Half or 8 degrees Globally.
The Melt-offs correlate with Jupiter’s cycle so we (probably)get Zapped like one of the Shoemaker Levy comet pieces did when ONE, HIT the Jupiter-Ion flux tube.
Did I just solve the Ice Ages ?
It’s me, the grim reaper … mwahahahah!
It is interesting that both the current El Nino and current slight reawakening of Sol seem to still be insufficient to break the general cold period.
We had pretty good crops last year. This year remains to be seen.
Factor in general rising levels of unrest world wide, nuclear proliferation and what appears may be the early stages of a multi orogeny significant global tectonic hyperactive period.
I’m glad I’ll probably be dead by the time we reach the 22nd Century.
I guess you know about this paper…
Nature 438, 208-211 (10 November 2005)
Possible solar origin of the 1,470-year glacial climate cycle demonstrated in a coupled model
Holger Braun, Marcus Christl, Stefan Rahmstorf, Andrey Ganopolski, Augusto Mangini, Claudia Kubatzki, Kurt Roth & Bernd Kromer
Abstract
Many palaeoclimate records from the North Atlantic region show a pattern of rapid climate oscillations, the so-called Dansgaard–Oeschger events, with a quasi-periodicity of ~1,470 years for the late glacial period1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Various hypotheses have been suggested to explain these rapid temperature shifts, including internal oscillations in the climate system and external forcing, possibly from the Sun7. But whereas pronounced solar cycles of ~87 and ~210 years are well known8, 9, 10, 11, 12, a ~1,470-year solar cycle has not been detected8. Here we show that an intermediate-complexity climate model with glacial climate conditions simulates rapid climate shifts similar to the Dansgaard–Oeschger events with a spacing of 1,470 years when forced by periodic freshwater input into the North Atlantic Ocean in cycles of ~87 and ~210 years. We attribute the robust 1,470-year response time to the superposition of the two shorter cycles, together with strongly nonlinear dynamics and the long characteristic timescale of the thermohaline circulation. For Holocene conditions, similar events do not occur. We conclude that the glacial 1,470-year climate cycles could have been triggered by solar forcing despite the absence of a 1,470-year solar cycle.
@phlogiston:
Had not seen that, thanks!
Odd, they get a 1470 model result from ice melt, but not during the Holocene. Yet in The Real World, we do have Bond Events in the Holocene…
My take on it would be that they have the general model parts working right, but probably not the actual driver of the changes… (That is, maybe they don’t need ice melt / fresh water, maybe all they need is a change of rainfall to a large deluge for a while… The sun / cloud interactions would just replace the sun /ice interactions and all the rest would stay the same…)
FWIW, the Maya Dresden Codex says that in 2012 the next grand cycle starts, and it does so with a bucket of water falling from the sky… (really, a minor river of water drawn on the codex).
So this would imply that an oscillation of some sort set up by the beat between an 87 and a 210 year cycle could cause it all… Nice.
I’d stick with it being rain driven, though…. Call it “Smith’s Hypothesis of Bond – Dansgaard – Oeschger events. The sun did it (via their proposed beat mechanism) but via a massive rainwater pulse, not ice melt. (I’m presuming the modeled ice melt in the glacial and not in the interglacial, thus their divergent results…)
Folks tend to forget about rain. I wonder why?…
Its hard to imagine long term cycles being related to local influences (solar/moon/our trajectory) without some additional remote influences from other planets and even galactic orientations.
Does this make sense?
Well, is rainfall or snow melt really “local” if it is driven by things like a solar cycle? And is the solar cycle really local if it is modulated by angular momentum changes via planetary orbital movements?
So I’m seeing it as one large interconnected set of physics, not as some part local and some parts remote.
But for the theoretical issue of ‘could SOMETHING local’ do it all by itself: Yes, it could.
Physical systems are prone to oscillation. Large ones. Small ones. Liquid, solid and even plasma ones.
So there is nothing at all that would prevent a very large system (like the ocean current system) having a 1470 year oscillation pattern that was stimulated by fresh water inputs.
The trite analogy is that of soldiers marching on a bridge. Hit the harmonic frequency of the structure, and it comes down. Even if the soldiers are vastly smaller than the bridge and even if the soldiers are ‘only local’….
I don’t particularly expect that is how the 1470 year cycle works, but I’d not be particularly surprised if that was what it turned out to be. Some internal solar oscillation driving a fresh water influx cycle that caused a harmonic of the ocean to result in a 1470 year cyclical pause in the overturning current and a very very cold spike.
I’d be equally willing to believe the whole thing was exactly as above, with the exception that the solar oscillation was not internal but was driven by angular momentum changes from the planets stirring the pot.
(In fact, I’d lean more toward that. Not because of any particular evidence, but because in the absence of evidence, it appeals to my desire to have a metronome of some sort ‘keeping time’ and supplying the kick pulse to synchronize the system. Basically, it’s ‘prettier’.
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Just found this after looking around from a posting that mentioned Bond events on Anthony’s site.
“I’m fairly certain that in fact Krakatau did cause the dark ages, but there is a small possibility it was a slightly different volcano. The historical records are rather confused largely due to the collapse of civilizations (plural) all over the world. The written records get really flakey to non-existent right after the KaBoom!”
I think it could even be more interesting when a volcanic event happens to line up with a Bond event. Imagine if we were already starting into such an event when the 535 eruption happened (as there is, I believe, some evidence it had already started to cool before 535). So if you are already headed into a Bond event and have a rather significant volcanic event, it would make things even worse.
As for the LIA, that was *the* coldest period since the Younger Dryas and it lasted about 300+ years so that actually might be Bond event 0. It is my understanding that Bond events can vary by a few hundred years from the average period.
Yeah, Bond Events are +/- a couple of hundred years, but when you look into the details, it’s that the cores et.al. can’t resolve less than that; not that the event has known jitter…
So LIA could have been it, but probably not.
I think we’ll find that Bond Events come with volcanoes across the board…
In my fantasy of what’s to come, we’re headed for Bond Event Zero, and it will come with a large volcano or 2 around 10 to 15 years from now. But we’ll need to wait and see if that is what happens or if I’m just indulging a fantasy ;-)
I think that as a whole the technology exists to stop an event like this.
If the UN took its head out of the sand of CO2 alarmism and devoted resources to studying how to install mirrors in space. This could increase insolation where necessary, and to the amount necessary, if the ice age is closer than we wished, Bond events included.
Reading comments about rain, volcanos and Bond then looking for patterns in the ether. How about big rainfall in Pakistan, Most of Australia having very wet year (Except SW where its been cold and dry).
Volcano – (a big one) what about the undertsanding that after the small Icelandic one that went off recently and disrupted the airlines in Europe that there is a bigger one (under the ice) that goes off sometime later chucking lots of stuff into the atnosphere. Sorry I forget the names of these things.
But maybe I am seeing things that are not there. We all see what we want to at times.
@Anna V: Good point.
My major concern would just be that we don’t know what causes them, so we’d be flying blind as to mechanism (and potential feedbacks…)
My guess is that it’s likely a natural cycle of solar activity, so the best solution would be space mirrors (as you suggested).
But what if it’s a volcanic cycle or …
I still think mirrors would work best, but then we’re just shooting from the hip and hoping (instead of simply making up the measured missing sunshine…) and “Hope is not a strategy”.
The other nice thing about mirrors is that if you get it wrong, it’s easy to flip them to reduce sunshine until you get back to balanced…. but the major problem would be all the folks wanting to do that today to ‘stop global warming’; and convincing them this is exactly the wrong time to do that.
Oh, and the fact that the USA has 2 more shuttle launches and then we cease being a space faring nation might be a bit of an issue… (Shades of China ‘burning the fleet’ after discovering most of the civilized world…)
Maybe the Russians can save the world for us… sigh.
Interesting assesment. Even moreso with the sun’s continued funk. Thanks for this site, btw.
@mom2girls: You are most welcome. My suspicion is that the suns funk comes from angular momentum changes (from planetary position changes) and that it is part and parcel of Grand Minimum events, Bond events, volcanoes et.al. They all come together when they come… That’s the theory, anyway…
@FredP: Same thing. They all come together. Change of earths spin (change of length of day LOD) indicates air and magma and oceans all getting wobbled about. So we get more rain, volcanoes, and such. I’ve taken to calling the little Icelandic volcano “Unpronounceable”, the larger one is Katla. But it’s Indonesia I’m more worried about…
Then there is Chaiten down in Chile. A potential supervolcano size event. Been venting for a year+ now IIRC. Probably ought to check in on it…
So the idea is that a load of volcanoes start chucking stuff in the air, we get up to our eyeballs in clouds (and rain) and then it gets really really cold…
And yes, I’m desperately hoping to be 100% wrong on that.
Chaitén webcam
http://www.aipchile.cl/camara/show/id/14
Still in the process of dome building.
Ah, thanks for that… Nice to have a reminder that there is this little volcano that’s been dumping continuously for about what, 2 years now? …
May 2008 to May 2011 will be 3 years, so closer to 2.5 years.
IIRC it has the potential to be a supervolcano sized event if the whole dome falls in. But nobody really knows how those work.
One thesis is that if it vents a little, and continuously (or periodically enough to be nearly continuous on a geologic time scale) it’s just a persistent volcano; BUT, if it erupts “too much” or “too fast” where those are very ill defined, the top of the magma chamber can fall in and we get a supervolcano and resultant caldera… Oh, and Chaiten is a caldera volcano…
I measure the season by season temps by studying the date my wife dives into the swimming pool at the start of the season. Since 2007 it has become earlier each year and this year I’m thinking of putting a heat pump in because we are nearly a month late and the temp is only 14C. She needs a min of 22°C. Last year was the same. It was mid june before she took the plunge.
Darn it Chief IO!
I just finished putting up a list of major cold events on WUWT for the last couple of winters and then I see the link to this. Like you I hope not to be alive when it hits, but at least I have my hundred ac in the south already.
Speaking of volcanoes and bond events, it seems Katla is waking up. However the one paper I could find connects earthquakes with solar maxima not minima. http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperDownload.aspx?paperID=5319
This information was in an article
@G. Combs:
What I think I’ve observed is that the increase comes on the transitions. Not the tops. Not the bottoms. The movement into a bottom, then a bit more on the movement out of a bottom.
Katla eh? Ok, time to go look at it again. And not plan any trips to Europe ;-)
If you expect a “Bond event” out from WS I do believe you: Think you have studied all the details and you are quite a genius for that. Thought you were a Celt but now it seems you are announcing the death of the fifth sun, like a good Mayan. :-)
@Adolfo:
Mayan? You mean the guys with the Red Head leader? The Southern Celts? ;-)
Just like the Inca and Aztecs…
http://www.jacksbromeliads.com/incaprophecylegands.htm
Quatzequatel is shown with a full beard. Not your typical Amerindian look at all…
http://www.maya12-21-2012.com/2012gods.html
So we have a Red Head landing in one spot. In another (perhaps an older guy) someone lands with a beard, but hair color less noted (perhaps white from age by then?).
The “Feathers” reference implies a lot of color, and unless the hair was green or blue, it kind of implies red…
http://forum.davidicke.com/showthread.php?t=5391
So the Southern American Celts ;-) watched the skies just like the Celts around Stonehenge ;-)
What’s the problem?…
It is absolutely true. I live in Peru and we know Viracocha was a white man. And what you say about celts around Stonehenge, who built it, to observe some interesting times as the ones we are living right now. Perhaps you know of other constructions similar to stonehenge which allegedly the members of an old society from atlantis, called the Akhaldan society, built all over the world to observe what was happening in the skies about 10,000 years ago. The same preoccupation with the skies happens 5,000 years ago when all the old Greek mythological saga, when Kupris, Venus, Ishtar, Esther, Kukulcan etc. was born, according to I. Velikovsky. Before that day Venus did not exist, and then it began the actual 5th sun, which according to egyptian priests used to raise in the west and set at the east, expected to be replaced by a brand new 6th. sun….
First thank you, I found this thread extremely interesting.
Why do you believe this Bond Event will have a climate cooling impact? Per the disclaimer prior to the listing of the event sequence
“Most Bond events do not have a clear climate signal; some correspond to periods of cooling, others are coincident with aridification in some regions.” (The first sentence doesn’t seem to make sense since both cooling and aridification can be considered climate events).
Looking D.A,’s post at WUWT the next event looks like it will be cooling, but there is so much conflicting data and thoughts that it seems like it could be anything. For example, per the Finnish tree ring study in D.A.’s post http://lustiag.pp.fi/holocene_trends1000_INQUA.pdf
there are very large oscillations in the supra long chronology that do not seem to coincide with the overlay of the temperate periods.
Why should we now think that the Scots pines since the 1500s will now be a better predictor?
I saw this website a few weeks after reading this one.
http://store.celtic-roots.com/handcraftstory.html
This passage seems relevant, giving dates 4000-4200BP and 5300-5600BP
Radiocarbon dating at Queen’s University, Belfast confirms: ” In providing dates along with sculptured wood, you can safely say, in the case of bog yew, that the date of the growth of the wood is between 2000 and 2200 BC and for the bog oak, the date of growth of the wood is between 3300 and 3600 BC” Dr. F. G. McCormack, Radiocarbon Research Unit.
@Gary D:
The basic point is simply that there is a periodic event that has many indicia that show cooling. There are some places with slightly different indications, so effects may not be uniform globally. Our timing is “about right”, BUT the overall timing is subject to stochastic resonance like effects. (There is some evidence for a ‘split period’ with an average of 1470 but with 1800 on one side and 1100 or so on the other. As we don’t know for sure what causes all of it, and the data are poor, there is a load of error band that might be due to any of: bad data, non-uniform period, split-period with stochastic resonance, etc. etc.) So it MIGHT be that the Little Ice Age was, in fact, Bond Event Zero and we just have not realized it yet; OR the next Bond Event might be “happening now”; OR it might be in 300 or so years. All fit the known data.
Given the sun going ‘way quiet’, I’m voting for now. But if the sun is not causal, that could be quite wrong. The match to lunar / tidal effects is very good. The period of Taurids return is also good, and orbital resonance effects means that those (AND solar changes) might all be synchronous making “causality” hard to sort out between them.
See:
Also, since aridity can be caused either by cooling or by warming (depending on place in the world) it is not a clear DIRECTION of climate impact. (Yes, there is a clear “something climate” but not a clear “cold climate” from an aridity event). So it takes some “teasing out” to figure out what exactly is happening. That is, it isn’t ‘clear’…
@Sandy:
Interesting site… and dates…
Well, it appears the man-made climate change folks were right, after a fashion, but in the wrong direction. Mr Smith, you mentioned a fresh water dump into the oceans as being one factor of a Bond Event (if I did not misread you in scanning responses). You talked about rain, but what about glacial melt in terms of massive fresh water dumps into the ocean? Take a look at this: http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=514. Anthony Watts has his own say on this too (from which I took the previous link): http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/21/greenland-ice-sheet-albedo-drops-off-the-bottom-of-the-chart-but-look-closer-as-to-why/#more-67902 as well as this: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/17/crack-in-the-earth-greenland-glacier-loses-ice-island-twice-the-size-of-manhattan/ and then, quite interestingly too, this: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/21/ocean-seawater-chemistry-linked-with-periods-of-global-cooling-sharp-changes-from-greenhouse-to-icehouse-climate/#more-67893. It’s a bit of connect-the-dots work, granted, but it’s interesting. If volcanic activity (above and below the ocean surface) increased, then you’d get higher sulfate content in the water, leading to global cooling, according to the proposed hypothesis in the article. This could be increased through the activity of soot on the Greenland ice sheets, causing melt water rich in sulfur-bearing coal soot to leak into the oceans through melt rivers and glacial calving. Also, sulfur put into the air, in the form of sulfuric acid has a chance to form into a sulfate and be deposited into the ocean. At least, this is what all my common sense tells me. I may be wrong at parts. I’m no expert. But ‘I have a good eye. I can see a church by daylight’ as Beatrice says in Much Ado About Nothing. Something to ponder.