There are several article in my “queue” that want attention, and I think I need to just blow out a quick link to them. Not a lot of pondering here, just some pointing.
So, when at the ICCC conference there was a talk by Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov that predicted we would start our way into a new Little Ice Age in about 2014. (Given how winter weather has been the last couple of years, I’m thinking maybe it’s starting a bit early ;-) At any rate, I think it’s worth a reminder that this HAS been predicted to be the entry into a very cold period that is to extend until about 2040 at the depths of the bottom.
While looking around for some documentation of that, I ran into this article:
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=155225
That had the embedded video for his talk. It also has a nice set of quotes from the video and a decent summary of it, if you want to just read instead of watching the presentation.
New Ice Age ‘to begin in 2014’
Russian scientist to alarmists: ‘Sun heats Earth!’
Posted: May 17, 2010 8:42 pm Eastern
By Jerome R. Corsi
© 2010 WorldNetDailyCHICAGO – A new “Little Ice Age” could begin in just four years, predicted Habibullo Abdussamatov, the head of space research at St. Petersburg’s Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia.
Abdussamatov was speaking yesterday at the Heartland Institute’s Fourth International Conference on Climate Change in Chicago, which began Sunday and ends today.
OK, “Old News” in that it’s from last May. (Golly, just 6 months ago? It seems like a couple of years, so much has happened.) But it reminded me that they had made video of the presentations.
The audio is pretty lousy (he does have an accent, but I had far less trouble following him in person that I do in this video.) At any rate, give it a ‘fair go’ and after a couple of minutes you can start picking out the cadence and get the hang of it. Honest!
OK, a couple of quotes from the article:
In the first of a two-part video WND recorded at the conference, Abdussamatov explained that average annual sun activity has experienced an accelerated decrease since the 1990s. In 2005-2008, he said, the earth reached the maximum of the recent observed global-warming trend.
In Part 2 of the video, Abdussamatov further explained that through 2014 the earth will go through a series of unstable variations in which global temperature will oscillate around the maximum reached in the years 1998-2005.
In 2003-2005, Abdussamatov predicted a reduction of sunspot activity that would reach a new minimum in 2042, resulting in a deep global temperature minimum in the years 2055-2060.
“My predictions are looking better and better with each passing year,” Abdussamatov declared.
Well, you’ve got to give him a lot of credit for that. No “projections” here. Flat out predictions. And he’s been right so far.
As seen in Part 2 of the video, Abdussamatov explained to the climate conference that the Russian segment of the ISS is scheduled to collect more precise data on sun activity over the next six years.
“If the Astrometria project is developed in time,” Abdussamatov said, “we will be able to develop a more precise forecast of the duration and the depth of the approaching new Little Ice Age and to understand the reasons of cyclical changes taking place in the interior of the sun and the ways they affect the Earth and various scopes of human activity.”
“Observations of the sun show that as for the increase in temperature, carbon dioxide is ‘not guilty,’” Abdussamatov wrote, “and as for what lies ahead in the coming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global, and very prolonged temperature drop.”
[…]
As historical support for his theory, Abdussamatov cited the observations in 1893 by the English astronomer Walter Maunder, who came to the conclusion that from 1645 to 1715 sunspots had been generally absent. That period coincided with the middle and coldest part of the Little Ice Age.[…]
“The intense solar energy flow radiated since the beginning of the 1990s is slowly and decreasingly and, in spite of conventional opinion, there is now an unavoidable advance toward a global decrease, a deep temperature drop comparable to the Maunder minimum,” he wrote.
[…]
“The observed global warming of the climate of the Earth is not caused by the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gasses, but by extraordinarily high solar intensity that extended over virtually the entire past century,” Abdussamatov wrote. “Future decrease in global temperature will occur even if anthropogenic ejection of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere rises to record levels.
“Over the past decade, global temperature on the Earth has not increased; global warming has ceased, and already there are signs of the future deep temperature drop.”
“The global temperature of the Earth has begun its decrease without limits on the volume of greenhouse gas emissions by industrial developed countries,” he wrote. “Therefore, the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol aimed to rescue the planet from the greenhouse effect should be put off at least 150 years.”
In 2007, National Geographic published Abdussamatov’s explanation that the global warming observed in the shrinking of the carbon dioxide “ice caps” near Mars’ South Pole was caused by increased solar activity.
“The long-term increase in solar irradiance is heating both Earth and Mars,” Abdussamatov wrote.
Personally, I think he’s on to something. In a related article, we had evidence that the Gulf Stream was slowing down. And no, it’s not due to some AGW melt water thing. Just a normal cyclical event.
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/12/06/italian-new-little-ice-age/
(Though very few folks said they wanted me to clean up the machine translation, so I’m not sure how many folks read it…)
At any rate, I’m still holding out hope for some of that Global Warming we were promissed. If we don’t get it, I think we’re going to have a ‘world of hurt’ from the cold. If we do get some warming, it just might help hold off catastrophe. But I’m not expecting it to help…
For what it’s worth, this site:
http://centurean2.wordpress.com/2010/12/12/is-there-global-cooling/
has a long list of links to recent (and some not so recent) cold events.
And only tangentially related, this article is predicting exceptional Aurora displays for 2012 due to solar activity. (Which leaves me wondering if you can have low solar output with high solar driven auroae at the same time…)
But it has a lot of nice pictures in it ;-)
Musings from the Chiefio 
And the Russians have been building their new massive nuclear powered icebreakers with this coming ice age in mind.
Dr Abdussamatov is head of Russia’s Pulkovo’s space research laboratory, not a small position. The Russians take snow and ice seriously.
The Russians are not only building icebreakers but they and the Chinese are buying up fossil fuel reserves world-wide at a huge rate. The Chinese are also building conventional fossil fuel power-stations at a huge rate.
In the mean time ‘the West’ closes down conventional power plants and puts up _windmills_ – manufactured by the Chinese.
One is reminded of a quote from Napoleon Bonaparte:
“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake”
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It may be much more that “a little ice age.”
The Vostoc ice core studies show we have been on a regular schedule of deep declines in temperature for four 90,000 to 125,000 year cycles and could be 10,000 to 40,000 years overdue for a very deep decline. You can see this chart at http://globalwarmingnotes.i8.com or any of many other sites.
We also know, but read very little about, the decline in our magnetosphere which could explain upper atmosphere temperature rises at night as observed in the Arctic. It is amazing the grant feeders haven’t tapped into that one. We can only guess there are no fashionable resorts in the area and nothing like Truffles or Caviar wedges, at $300 a slice, to stick to American taxpayers so, “Screw it!”
For more conservative politics, science and humor see: http://adrianvance.blogspot.com “The Two Minute Conservative” for radio and TV talk show hosts, opinion page editors and dinner table trouble makers who do not want to be invited back to a liberal hostess’ gatherings.
@Ian W:
Well put.
The only ‘good thing’ is that in a true catastropic breakdown, those fossil fuels contracts will be meaningless AND it’s likely to have an onset fast enough that we’ll still have the coal and nuclear plants standing ready for service (at least in the USA. Don’t know what they’re schedule is in the UK).
My bigger concern is that when it get really really cold and we start having northern wheat failures:
You have China and Russia both cold and hungry and with nukes. Stir in a frozen starving N. Korea with nukes and the scenario is not looking so good for places like Southeast Asia and Ukraine.
For the folks in N. Europe with a windmill fetish, well, one can only hope they break soon enough and fast enough that the folly is found before the lights go out…
Good news, bad news type of article. On the one hand, if we do slip into another mini-ice age, that will quiet the AGW crowd (if we are warming, at least wait until it is over to do something about it so we can warm up NOW).
On the other hand, as you put it (sarcastically it seemed, but accurately), it will just be incorporated into the religion as being caused by man in any event “SEE! Weird weather! We angered Gaia!”. While I am sure they will take credit for predicting it (ex-post facto), at least some of the semi intelligent will stop believing them, and many of the indifferent (and apathetic) will ignore them in order to stay warm during the period!
“Modern Humans”, those living at any one point in time during the last 6 million years, tend to think that they are special and that those who lived at some earlier point in time and experienced some terrible “natural” catastrophy were dumber than they by a mile. People haven’t changed much, have they? If something terrible happens to Modern Humans, I’ll bet it will be in their great great grandchildren’s history books and the kids are going to think we were sooooo dumb.