What Now In Climate Wars?

This is just a very short bleat and to some extent lament about future unknowns.

I was pondering “what to post next” and thinking about how the whole Global Warming thing had gone from “New, What-Is-It Shiny Thing!” to “Disappointing abuse for asking rational questions” when I first ran into the Warmer Advocacy sites, to the joy of discovering WUWT (partly brought on by the 10 year anniversary posting…) which lead to doing a bunch of number crunching computer work (a lot on GIStemp), which resulted in this blog…

THEN, just a year or so back having the realization that “It isn’t about the Science” and that the Science was just window dressing on a Political Agenda. That only a fool brings a science knife to a political gun fight… and I started doing some of my first politically oriented postings…

To now with a Trump win and BREXIT and the world seems to have made the right political choices.

Where to now?

All of which leaves me wondering: Where to now?

Is the science still relevant enough to “do more” on it? Is the number crunching model / data analysis really of any remaining value? With the politics likely resolved for 4, perhaps (hope hope) 8 years, what relevance does flogging it have now?

I know, I know, “They” will not go quietly into that good night, so neither ought we…

But still, I’m in a contemplative mood, contemplating what fork to take next, and finding only shadows down the various paths…

Perhaps a wander down “memory lane” with a book about “What is wrong with the temperatures as Global Warming indicator?” that catalogs all the things wrong from thermometers to math to analysis to models?

Perhaps a book about resources and how they do NOT ever run out?

Perhaps just ongoing day by day blogging of “what happened today” even if not so important? (Bringing up an intrusion detection system on a small computer is fun for me, but really not so much for most folks…)

Wait for the “other side” to start their “reactionary response” and react to the reaction?

Frankly, I’d love to just “Declare Victory and go home”, but I’m already AT home! ;-) And somehow I doubt the global cabal sucking down $Billions in Climate Cash will just walk away quietly and fly off to their Swiss Bank Account…

So, in the end, I’m left with: What now? Like that moment at a great party when you notice the punch bowl is 3/4 empty, the band is taking a long break, and the crowd has thinned out a bit. Is it time to think of “what now?”, or just wait until the bowl is refilled and the band comes back from break?…

I’ve looked at doing a Climate Model port to a small cluster (The Average Joe DIY Climate Station), but what’s the point if they are “known to not work” and Trump is busy putting them out of business anyway? Similarly, I could spin a “GIStemp on a chip” for the Raspberry Pi in about 5 hours of work; but who would want it? (I actually ran it once on the Pi as a proof of concept, but that was a couple of years ago so I’d likely need to do a re-port of the newest code). Does any of that matter? In Hillary’s terminology: “At this point, what difference does it make?”…

Kind of like the dog chasing cars and biting at the tires: Once you catch one, what do you do with it? Well, Trump is in, and he’s a skeptic looking for places to cut costs. I suspect “right quick” NASA will be getting back to space issues and NOAA will be looking more at “weather this week” than “unknown catastrophe in some future century”… Teeth are in the tire, now what?

Well, I’m open to suggestions. Just don’t go all worried on me. Not planning to change anything any time soon. Just wondering which oar to pull on the most and what direction is land… and where did I put that little brown jug of grog? 9-)

While Contemplating

Here’s a little mood music for while you all are contemplating.

Dedicated To Madam Hillary, Hillary dear, Are you leaving soon?

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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91 Responses to What Now In Climate Wars?

  1. Larry Ledwick says:

    I think you are on the right track, the climate nonsense was the trigger for the general awakening that you had gross government corruption merged in with an oppressive globalist/progressive agenda and the “science” was just the camouflage to get the indoctrination structure set up.

    I am quite astonished that grown adults still think (are absolutely sure) that their life expectancy will be shortened by 40 years by global warming when you can’t even demonstrate in any rigerous fashion that is exists. Much like the extinction of the polar bear the facts simply do not support the conclusion. Only the mutilated data and bogus models support that sort of conclusion and even that is so out of bounds it is silly, if you even a hint of historical knowledge. It is simply impossible to melt a major fraction of the Greenland ice cap within a human life span (ground bound ice melting being a necessary precondition for catastrophic flooding).

    Maybe time to start writing a look back on how their house of cards fell apart. Ironic that it was also triggered by email leaks by a “hacker”.

  2. Zeke says:

    “What Now”


    Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 5h5 hours ago
    Just got a call from my friend Bill Ford, Chairman of Ford, who advised me that he will be keeping the Lincoln plant in Kentucky – no Mexico

  3. beththeserf says:

    What now? Qui sait… qui sait … qui sait?

    One thing we know, the Gramsci long march through the institutions,
    especially education, will continue.


  4. oldbrew says:

    Strongarm tactics seem to be the new MO of the paranoid climate crowd at COP22 in Marrakech when faced with dissenters.

    The GWPF quotes Rupert Darwall:
    Update: After filing the following report this morning from this year’s session of the U.N.’s annual climate meeting, the author went to attend the day’s “conference of the parties” as he had been doing all week, only to be arrested by armed U.N. police and detained for trying to gain entry with a blocked pass. His phone was confiscated and examined, and he was asked whom he had been calling.

  5. EM – since the traditional climate models are based on curve-fitting, they can be adjusted to fit what data is fed into them to give a good fit but are obviously useless at prediction since they all disagree with each other. It seems to me that an array processor could be used to advantage here, with each sub-processor handling its own small volume of atmosphere and reacting to the real inputs from sunlight, evaporation (if at ground level) and the inputs from the neighbouring cells as well as the effects of rotation. It also seems likely that the spice engine could be useful as a basis – making the timesteps smaller in cases where things are quickly changing. The majority of the cells would have pretty simple maths, and work from first principles rather than fitting curves. We do after all have equations to tell us what happens as moist air rises, though maybe the chaotic mixing of air masses would need to be approximated somewhat. The model of the ground level would be most complex, with the land-type and moisture levels needing to be taken into account to calculate evaporation rates. We’d also need to take into account ocean currents and temperatures.

    It does seem that such a model from first principles is overdue. Once built, though, and tested against known starting data to see if it can predict general climate (and even short-term weather), the effects of a change in TSI could be tested, as could a spectral change.

    This is a pretty big task, but it does have a lot of parallelism so would be suited for a nest of Pis or similar (or that multi-GPU beast). Once above ground-level, the calculations should be pretty simple with the biggest problem in using spherical coordinates and thus variable size of cell or overlapping borders. Mountains also cause a bit of a headache….

    Maybe better than a tyre to get your teeth into.

  6. A C Osborn says:

    First of all practically every sceptic forum should write to Donald and offer any assistance they can to re-inforce his own scepticism about the current “Science”.
    It may be totally ignored, but at least it is worth trying.
    The strange thing is that there has been no actual kickback from the sceptics on a mass basis, other than Morano’s film and their visiting the conferences.
    We do not have the money, but maybe it needs to be done via less normal means, like mass emailings or twitter account hacking to get the messages out there.
    Because apart from a few Reporters the MSM is not going to stop with the outright lies and propaganda to scare the populace to death to justify the globalist’s agenda.

  7. H.R. says:


    You might find it amusing to go up against Stephen Hawking. He recently came out with the claim that humankind will be extinct in about a thousand years due to artificial intelligence, a lack of resources, and global warming. I’d say you’ve spent a bit more time looking around in the CAGW and Malthusian weeds than has Hawking.

  8. philjourdan says:

    What next? Doing more with less. As others have pointed out, the gravy train is drying up. The Alarmists will not go away. But they will have to learn how to do more with less. And perhaps, that will increase the quality of the work. But that is not a given.

    More with less.

  9. Gail Combs says:

    While looking for something else (that I just posted) I saw this on featured stories @ Alex Jones. (It still bothers me that I have to go to a fringe site to find sane news coverage…. Yeah I know Alex Jones and sane do not seem to belong in the same sentence.)

    Climate Report to UN: Trump right, UN wrong – Skeptics Deliver Consensus Busting ‘State of the Climate Report’ to UN Summit

    By JOVE, I think he’s GOT IT! (He featured an article written by Marc Morano of Climate Depot.)

  10. pearce m. schaudies says:

    Hi Chief. Greetings from the Big Mango (BKK). Here’s a new project: I
    read an article today on WaPo about the hot arctic. In my collection of paleo climate pdf’s several say the interglacials have a warm pulse near the end, a few meters sea rise, and glacial have started with higher CO2 levels. So I believe the ‘Global economy is facing a serious ‘Double Tap’ in the near future. Regardless of Trump, heh.

    1. Looks like 2020 will be the start of a Dalton type cold snap lasting 30 – 170 yrs. as we slide towards glacial max.

    Several blogs note artic warming, but attribute to AGW. I believe the artic warming to ice- free may be to supply gigatons of moisture to the next Laurentide ice sheet. This old story got me thinking about steps necessary for glacial inception …


    If one considers obliquity increasing past 23.5 deg as an interglacial onset and falling past the end, our Holocene ended 700 ya, with duration about 17.5 ky. The Younger Dryas and other extremes cut down the normal early warm part.

    While I’m not a card- carrying climate scientist, I am a curious electrical engineer with a background in reliability and statistics, and I have read several hundred pdf’s on paleo and modern climate.

    I have read recently on several climate blogs that interglacials don’t last past 23.5 degrees of obliquity. The wiki says we are now about 23.4371, so I project back to 23.5 and it occurred during the series of little ice ages – Wolf, Sporer, Maunder, and Dalton. The average time between start date is 170 years, a barycentric precession Cycle identified by VP Melnikov in 2008. This may be just a coincidence but could give more weight to the claim that the Holocene interglacial ended in 1300 AD.

    Also with the projected Grand solar minimum for cycle 25 and 26, starting in 2020, possibly a new Dalton – LIA, will cause a lot of global hardship for about 30 yrs with colder winters and unusual wet / dry spells. However, the usual global slope going in to glacial is 1 deg C per 1000 yrs. People will adjust, migrate, or starve.

    And if that’s not enough,

    2. in 2013 Q4 the oil majors made big cuts in searching an developing new fields. They have also lied about the ‘proven’ reserves since 1980. And now EROEI is below 10. So the quantity extracted will be falling rapidly after 2020.

    For shocks this big, I believe it’s better to risk a Type I error than Type II.

    Keep calm, take your meds, and carry on. If possible move to a small town less than 50k people, 100 mi. from coast, 400 mi. from nuclear power plant. Make friends with neighbors, share. Buy quality hand tools, not gold.

    This could be another ‘Darwin Squeeze’. I believe this possibility should be discussed more widely in case somebody might choose to move inland early and avoid the rush, heh. Otherwise historians in 5000 yrs will write, ‘Few scientists realized the Holocene ended in 1300 AD, since they hadn’t experienced one before.’

    Pearce M. Schaudies.
    Minister of Future

  11. Gail Combs says:

    Speaking of the information wars, and that is what the Climate Wars were about;

    Again by Alex Jones.
    Quantcast has blacklisted Infowars from its top trafficked websites as the establishment’s attempt to silence opposing voices by declaring conservative outlets

    And Twitter User Replaces Word ‘White’ With ‘Black,’ Gets Banned “A person wrote the same comment on two different accounts with only two words changed, then reported each for abusive behavior”

    I saw the same in a video by Mike Cernovich: Twitter Bans Coming On Strong – Now What?

    Sorry it is a bit long and rambling.
    Mike also says it is in the technical language of the contract but he has his lawsuit prepped and ready to go if they step beyond the contract. (Mike is a lawyer.)

    The suggestion is an alternate: https://gab.ai/

    It is interesting that some of the corporations are becoming unhinged.
    BREAKING : Pepsi STOCK Plummets After CEO Tells Trump Supporters to “Take Their Business Elsewhere”

    Now the lying media is trying to spin the story that it is the Trump supporters who are Unhinged…
    Just look at the first page of google.
    Trump supporters call to boycott Pepsi over comments the CEO never made — CNNMoney‎
    Fake news spurs Trump backers to boycott PepsiCo — CBS News‎
    Why some Donald Trump supporters are taking aim at Pepsi – The Washington Post.
    Pepsi CEO Indra Nooyi never told supporters of Donald Trump to “take their business elsewhere,” implicitly or explicitly —- SNOPES

    There is a name for this type of behavior. It is called Gaslighting. Trying to make a person think the truth is not the truth as it keeps morphing and eventually enough of it makes you doubt your sanity. This can leads to mental problems.

  12. Ralph B says:

    It is interesting to see that resources haven’t yet run out (with the exception of DoDo down to which there is no substitute). The internal combustion engine looks to hang around for a long time. I start to wonder about abiotic oil as we hear about all these new finds. The hydrocarbons seem so deep to be from dead dinosaurs.

  13. Gail Combs says:

    A C Osborn says: “First of all practically every sceptic forum should write to Donald and offer any assistance they can to re-inforce his own scepticism about the current “Science”.
    It may be totally ignored, but at least it is worth trying…..”

    Tony Heller of http://realclimatescience.com has already met with the Trump EPA team.

    Donald Trump announced yesterday Myron Ebell will head up the EPA transition team. I’ve known Myron for years, and Trump could not have made a better choice. Myron is the perfect person for finding the right mix of environmental and business protections. He is passionate about both – as am I…

    … I was in Washington DC two weeks ago, I presented my Australia slides to Myron and the Competitive Enterprise Institute. We are in good hands now. Thank you Donald Trump.

    We can either funnel info via Tony, the Competitive Enterprise Institute or contact the Trump Transition team direct:

    Just in case you did not know:
    Myron Ebell is director of the Center for Energy and Environment at the Competitive Enterprise Institute and chairs the Cooler Heads Coalition

    (For me, I am getting a secure connection failure notice for https://cei.org/ )

  14. Gail Combs says:

    Ralph B, They are finding abiotic hydrocarbons on other planets.

    NASA: Titan’s Surface Organics Surpass Oil Reserves on Earth

  15. cdquarles says:

    @Simon, if they really want to start from first principles, then I would say that we need to start with the kinetic theory of gases. take into account every chemical interaction and refine the radiative transfer (SB is based on an ‘imaginary and idealized’ system based on radiation from a surface. Does a gas have a surface? What kind is it?). Then take into account that empirical systems don’t necessarily act the same way systems with fewer restraints may act. After all of that, a proper error analysis and propagation needs to be done, complete with as much verification and validation as possible.

    While accuracy, precision and resolution overlap, they’re not all the same things. Oh yeah, please quite misusing statistics. Chance is not a thing, chance is a description of actual and potential influences that include much lack of specific knowledge.

  16. E.M.Smith says:


    Interesting idea. Roll your own with real physics…

    For code with small tight loops (like for I=1 to 64; do; temp[I]=(temp[I]+0.03(temp [I-1]) the GPU systems work well, for highly variable things with few tight loops, the CISC works better. My sense of it is CUDA Cores in a GPU would work well for a phys model.

    There are about 300? cores per processor board, so a 9000 grid model would work best with about 9000/300= 30 boards. Call it $300 each with minimal support stuff (power supply but not gold plated cases and racks). I make that about $9000. Double that for shipped, installed and Ooops! issues, or about $18k. Attainable by almost anyone with a budget… Devo can go on 1/10 that and first try on about $600. That’s for one TeraFLOP https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2015/12/08/personal-teraflop-climate-simulator-for-how-much/

    Speed a bit hard to guess, but we’re talking TeraFLOPS hardware, but the climate model ought not need it at that granularity… one TF to start, 3 to assure cluster works, then 30 TF to run.

    Ought to work…

  17. tom0mason says:

    E.M. it’s hard to get around the logic and clarity of this post you did back in 2012.
    That and Abdussamatov’s papers, I’ve often used it a as references on other blogs when a foolish AGW twerp decides CO2 somehow ‘warms’ the atmosphere.

  18. Gail Combs says:

    Also “Packetsled” CEO, Matt Harrigan makes threats against Trump. Tech CEO resigns after threatening to kill Trump

    Packetsled is internet security company.

    The crazys are really climbing out of the woodwork. That must mean Trump really is a Change Agent.

  19. E.M.Smith says:


    There is an unfortunate tendency for folks who reach the pinacle in a tightly focused field to pontificate in areas where they know little. The greater the focused accomplishment, the worse the rest (by necessity as they were so highly focused to get yhat recognition).

    Having spent about 1/2 century working day and night to be a Renaissance Generalist, I can guarantee it leaves no time for that level or rarified study. So the Celebrity Pontifier just adopts the most currently popular belef set and goes on stage to be lauded…

    But taking that on isn’t a matter of debating the Pontif. That doesn’t happen. They just eventually fade out with the currency of the topic.


    Interesting method. I arrived at 2016 to 2018 onset by another means (in a couple of postings). There’s also one looks at prior regional climate. Turns out Florida srays warm and wet during a glacial. Heat from the Gulf backs up there as the Gulf Stream slows down…

    BTW, IMHO, the LIA was a 1/2 Bond Event and this one will be the full deal… (another posting is on that).

    Yes, I’m working on a move to Florida… been there more than here for a half dozen years now… but time to move the rest of the kit. Biggest issue for me, IMHO, is that California goes into a big drought when things get cold… During TLIA there was spectacular drought that makes the current one look like nothing, IIRC. So staying in California “has issues” unless a lot more desalination is done.

    BTW, food is easily handled via vertical farming, so no worries.

    @Ralph B.:

    I’ve spent years on resource economics. We never run out. We CAN NEVER run out. Because everthing is a resource and more stuff lands on the planet each year than leaves…

    Per hydrocarbons: We can make all we want. Limestone and water and heat near metal based catalyts, collect H2 and CO2, shift to producer gas, polymerize. FT is the best known, but there are several paths. We have functionally infinite energy from seawater U, so fuel is just a great chemical battery in the end game. BTW, limestone and water subduct into very hot zones with zeolite like cataltst rocks all over the planet. “Oddly” major oil producers are near subduction locations…

    For central USA the geology is more complicated. It was a shallow inland sea. Lots of algae sinking into anoxic swamps. Giant mountans eroded to cover it. Wait, you get oil. IFF the swamp had giant ferns, you get coal. But that can’t explain oil offshore Brazil, or in hard rocks in Russia…

  20. E.M.Smith says:


    You can tell Trump us over the target by the shouting, crying, screaming, cursing, and flack…


    Thanks! I’m fond of that one too 8-)

  21. Jeff says:

    Here’s Garrison on Gaslighting:

    and his illustration:

    which reminds me of Robert Louis Stevenson’s poem “The Lamplighter” (especially as
    illustrated by Thomas Kincaid) (OK, OK, I like Deplorable Art). (I also like Kincaide’s
    lamp better than the one fueled by Hildebeast :) Goodnes knows, she has enough hot air, though).

    (My mum told me about the lamplighters in London that she saw as a child in the 1920s)

    Stevenson, Robert Louis (1850–1894). A Child’s Garden of Verses and Underwoods. 1913.
    The Lamplighter

    MY tea is nearly ready and the sun has left the sky;
    It’s time to take the window to see Leerie going by;
    For every night at teatime and before you take your seat,
    With lantern and with ladder he comes posting up the street.

    Now Tom would be a driver and Maria go to sea,
    And my papa’s a banker and as rich as he can be;
    But I, when I am stronger and can choose what I’m to do,
    O Leerie, I’ll go round at night and light the lamps with you!

    For we are very lucky, with a lamp before the door,
    And Leerie stops to light it as he lights so many more;
    And O! before you hurry by with ladder and with light;
    O Leerie, see a little child and nod to him to-night!

  22. Larry Ledwick says:

    Not to mention thermal-depolymerization of trash back to oil. It was proven economically viable at about $90 a bbl, all you need is heat water and pressure and complex hydrocarbons break down into basically crude oil.

    It got crushed intentionally by people with other agendas (renewable energy folks) and the economic down turn in 2008. The process is proven and waiting in the wings for economics to make it commercially viable. With modern Fracking that may be some years now.

    In a boycott situation or other unnatural shortage or once patents expire it could be brought on line fairly quickly.


  23. Dan_Kurt says:

    re: @Ralph B: abiotic oil

    Search for Thomas Gold’s two books and read about it if you are interested:(1) The Deep Hot Biosphere: The Myth of Fossil Fuels, (2) Power From the Earth: Deep Earth Gas – Energy for the Future (never published in America; I got my copy in London, a great book published in 1987).

    One point: The radius of the earth is 4,000 miles. The crust ranges in thickness from 10 miles (under ocean) to 40 miles at thickest of continental crust. Stated another way the crust varies from 0.3 percent to 1 percent of the radius of the earth. This means that greater than 99% below the surface of the earth is true Terra Incognito: no experimental data, no samples, only indirect seismic data and models.

    Dan Kurt

  24. G. Combs says:

    My favorite is The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894

    My favorite socialist, Richard Courtney who is found on WUWT, worked on conversion of coal to petrol IIRC. It is a state secret in the UK.

    Once you switch to nuclear everything becomes a lot easier. For one thing all that cooling water can be used to heat vertical greenhouses. Extracting pure water becomes possible (see Israel) and you can then start extracting various minerals and even mine the sea floor. With a bit more effort we can mine the moon and close planets given enough energy. Cheap, plentiful energy is the key which is why the Globalists are so intent on controlling it.

    The whole ‘running out’ meme is nothing but crap used to control people AND to continue moving wealth to the 1%.

    Perhaps the thing I resent most is the killing of the dreams we had in the 1960s and 1970s when mankind was reaching for the stars. Instead, now we have muslim outreach. Out reach towards a fossilized culture stuck in 700 AD.

  25. gallopingcamel says:

    @Larry Ledwick:
    “It is simply impossible to melt a major fraction of the Greenland ice cap within a human life span (ground bound ice melting being a necessary precondition for catastrophic flooding).”

    According to the IPCC (AR5) the global ice is melting at a rate of 300 Giga-tonnes per year. That sounds pretty scary unless you realize that the global ice inventory is 30,000,000 Giga-tonnes. Thus at the present rate it will take 10,000 years to melt it all!

    However as our leader points out…………..this is about politics and nobody gives a fig about science.

  26. Power Grab says:

    @ G. Combs:

    “…Perhaps the thing I resent most is the killing of the dreams we had in the 1960s and 1970s when mankind was reaching for the stars. Instead, now we have muslim outreach. Out reach towards a fossilized culture stuck in 700 AD.”

    With that kind of outreach, you draw back a stub!

    I remember those dreams! It felt like moving from roller skates…to a bicycle…to a VW Beetle…to one of those big V-8’s on a super highway! It felt like the sky was the limit. Good times!

    Then they sold us that lie that oil was running out and created long lines at the pump and drove up the cost of fuel. Really cranked it up. People even stopped putting Christmas lights on their houses. So sad.

    I kind of think the reality is that there is SO MUCH oil in the ground that they’re afraid every country will be able to produce what they need. It could become as cheap as (cheaper than?) water. Those “huddled masses yearning to breathe free” might actually catch a break. They can’t let that happen.

    It’s getting S-O-O-O OLD. They’ve gotta keep drumming up shortages…creating discord between brothers…trying to light the powder keg of war…or at least destroy the USA (tearing it apart by encouraging secession would work for them, I’m sure).

    As I look back on the role of media in our history, I can’t help but wonder how much of their behavior was actually dictated by the gummint. If the folks in power really wanted to rein them in, I’m sure they have their ways. I’ve decided they don’t really want to rein them in. And the MSM like nothing better than a big blow-up. The bigger and uglier, the better for their purposes. I believe that’s why Donald Trump came out with those outrageous comments like he did. He knew it would keep the cameras on him. If he had played the part of a reasonable man, the media would have either ignored him and focused on Hillary, or they would have created mud to throw on him. He knew the game the media were playing, and used it for his advantage. If he and my granddad had known each other, I’m sure they would have exchanged knowing winks.

  27. gallopingcamel says:

    @Gail Combs:
    “Once you switch to nuclear everything becomes a lot easier.”

    How true! Each time we run out of an energy source something better comes along. We ran out of whale oil for lighting our houses but found kerosene that was much more cheaper and more effective.

    We will eventually run out of cheap “fossil fuels” but it won’t matter because nuclear (fission) fuel is several million times more effective (pound for pound) and we have enough proven reserves to run our industrial civilization for tens of thousands of years.

    By the time fission fuels run out we will have mastered nuclear fusion with essentially unlimited reserves.

  28. David A Anderson says:

    E. M. My personal vote is for you to do a book on the planet’s resources. IMV you excell here, and through skeptic websites have an international audience.

    Quick question for anyone. I am looking for a good critical book detailing the Black Lives Matter movement. Any suggestions appreciated.

  29. pg sharrow says:

    The past is completed and the future unknown, sometimes the best thing to do is enjoy the present and think about what you enjoy doing rather then what others expect.

    GOD doesn’t always give us what we think we want., but often gives us what we need. Often when we least expect it.

    Enjoy the Holiday Season and let the New Year begin.

    We live in interesting times. ..pg

  30. Larry Ledwick says:

    Not sure there is a book out on Black Lives matter but there since it is a relatively new incarnation of leftists power politics through street protests. One of the few who is willing to point out the contradictions in the BLM movement is David Horowitz, who has a unique perspective. He grew up among Marxists and Communists and knows their strategies and thinking from that first person experience. He had an awakening in the 1960’s when he realized they really did not care in the slightest how many people got hurt as a result of their protests, incitement to bombings and terrorism etc. Ever since that he has been dedicated to pulling the covers off the hidden networks and relationships of those subversive elements hidden in plain sight behind politically correct names which usually are in direct contrast to their real agenda.


  31. Larry Ledwick says:

    Another item here points out what is obvious to those of us old enough to remember the Black Panthers during the ’60’s. BLM is just a modern version of the same race based hate group, it is literally a black version of the KKK.


  32. David A Anderson says:

    Thanks Larry, yes, I am a great fan of David Horowitz; a brilliant academic turning his writing skill and intelligence to very consructive thought.
    Concerning the BLM group I heard a book at been written, but perhaps not yet.

  33. David A Anderson says:

    Larry, your links led to two books, “Black Lies Matter” written by a black man, and “The War on Cops, by a woman.
    Thanks again.

  34. Gail Combs says:

    Power Grab,
    In 1979 I met a lady in her late 80s who had gone from the horse and buggy era to a man on the moon! Think about that.

    SO what have we seen in my life time? (I am in my mid 60s) we have gone from an era of Christian Enlightenment, progress, hope and freedom to an era where Christianity is being supplanted by a barbaric religion in the EU with the blessings of it’s leaders. Where Christian Enlightenment is being driven out of the USA. Where poverty, criminality, drugs and infantile behavior is DELIBERATELY encouraged by the government in the USA and Canada while Christian ethics is trashed. Our debt free midsize American companies — Companies where an employee was treated as a member of the ‘family’ to be grown within the company — have been raided for the wealth they built up, ripped apart, buried and replaced by multinationals where humans are treated as replaceable cogs. Used until age 40 to 45 and then tossed out and replaced by ‘cheaper’ workers. The quality of our products after peaking in the late 70s has taken a nosedive as a result.

    And where did all that built-up wealth go that used to be reinvested in research?

    Of mergers and acquisitions each costing $1 million or more, there were just 10 in 1970; in 1980, there were 94; in 1986, there were 346. A third of such deals in the 1980’s were hostile. The 1980’s also saw a wave of giant leveraged buyouts. Mergers, acquisitions and L.B.O.’s, which had accounted for less than 5 percent of the profits of Wall Street brokerage houses in 1978, ballooned into an estimated 50 percent of profits by 1988…

    THROUGH ALL THIS, THE HISTORIC RELATIONSHIP between product and paper has been turned upside down. Investment bankers no longer think of themselves as working for the corporations with which they do business. These days, corporations seem to exist for the investment bankers….

    In fact, investment banks are replacing the publicly held industrial corporations as the largest and most powerful economic institutions in America….

    THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A VICIOUS spiral has begun, as each corporate player seeks to improve its standard of living at the expense of another’s.
    Corporate raiders transfer to themselves, and other shareholders, part of the income of employees by forcing the latter to agree to lower wages. January 29, 1989 http://www.nytimes.com/1989/01/29/magazine/leveraged-buyouts-american-pays-the-price.html?sec=&spon=&pagewanted=all New York Times

    More recently the IMF reported where that wealth went.

    …New convergence and strengthened interdependence coincide with a third trend, relating to income distribution. In many countries the distribution of income has become more unequal, and the top earners’ share of income in particular has risen dramatically. In the United States the share of the top 1 percent has close to tripled over the past three decades, now accounting for about 20 percent of total U.S. income (Alvaredo and others, 2012). At the same time, while the new convergence mentioned above has reduced the distance between advanced and developing economies when they are taken as two aggregates, there are still millions of people in some of the poorest countries whose incomes have remained almost stagnant for more than a century (see “More or Less,” F&D, September 2011). These two facts have resulted in increased divergence between the richest people in the world and the very poorest, despite the broad convergence of average incomes…

    So, since the mid 1970s, our former Christian society, instead of reinvesting our collective wealth in advancement has consolidated that wealth and used it instead to wage wars with the goal of enslaving the entire world under a giant socialist techno-bureaucracy (aka Global Governance)

    Unfortunately the Elite learned their lesson during the American and French Revolutions when the emerging middle class overturned 1,000 years of a two class serf-aristo system . They have decided Islam produces much much better slaves/serfs when compared to Christianity with its belief of Man created in the image of God and God Given Rights.

    I am an agnostic BTW, but I agree with Stefan Molyneaux.

    This is an interesting and timely article. This Is How Steve Bannon Sees The Entire World
    Towards the middle of the page is a lot about the banks and the 2008 bank bailout.

    The rants in the comments by Stefanie Iris Weiss show just how irrational those on the left can be.

    Here is an example:

    You’ll be less confident when millions of people from all over the country show up in DC on January 20th to make sure that this frigteningly ignorant, deeply mentally troubled wannabe king never, ever enters the White House. Even if we get dragged away, beaten, shot with rubbber bullets, we will fight racism, anti-semitism and the terrifying prospect of Bannon’s global Holy War until you lock us all up. And what you’ll find is that there are too many of us to drag away. This is in part made obvious by the popular vote going to HRC by millions, an the millions of others who were barred from voting because the conservatives on the court destroyed the voting rights act. But the fervor amongst good citizens is more active than ever before — we will stand to protect our black and brown, Muslim, and LGBT brothers and sisters from these 14th century ideas. We’ve evolved, and we are NOT going backwards now.

    I do like this comeback:

    Stefanie Iris Weiss I read a lot of violent words and ideas in your comments: thrown out, whiplash, “forced” to leave, “forced” to resign, people will not stand… Tell me, you and who’s army are going to do this? You really want a civil war, don’t you?

    In the United States fo America, we fight by voting. You lost. Get over it. The Progressive Triumph wasn’t. And by the way, if what you really want is violence, just remember who has all the guns in this country…

    The left now tossing tantrums seems to forget that…

  35. Gail Combs says:

    Power Grab says: “…As I look back on the role of media in our history, I can’t help but wonder how much of their behavior was actually dictated by the gummint….”

    The MSM was captured by the banker/military-industrial complex in 1915 J.P. Morgan Interests Buy 25 of America’s Leading Newspapers and Insert Editors – U.S. Congressional Record February 9, 1917 Then look up Operation Mockingbird.

    The Fed was responsible for the overthrow of the Russian government in 1917 and they have been overthrowing governments ever since. Congressman McFadden’s Speeches on The Federal Reserve: An Astounding Exposure 1934 McFadden was driven out of Congress and when he would not shut up he was assassinated.

  36. Gail Combs says:

    For a book on Black Lives Matters try Hating Whitey and Other Progressive Causes by David Horowitz


  37. LG says:

    In the mean time, a paper proclaims:

    The New Little Ice Age Has Started

    Since 1990, the Sun has been in the declining phase of the quasi-bicentennial variation in total solar irradiance (TSI). The decrease in the portion of TSI absorbed by the Earth since 1990 has remained uncompensated by the Earth’s long-wave radiation into space at the previous high level because of the thermal inertia of the world’s oceans. As a result, the Earth has, and will continue to have, a negative average annual energy balance and a long-term adverse thermal condition. The quasi-centennial epoch of the new Little Ice Age has started at the end 2015 after the maximum phase of solar cycle 24. The start of a solar grand minimum is anticipated in solar cycle 27 ± 1 in 2043 ± 11 and the beginning of phase of deep cooling in the new Little Ice Age in 2060 ± 11. The gradual weakening of the Gulf Stream leads to stronger cooling in the zone of its action in western Europe and the eastern parts of the United States and Canada. Quasi-bicentennial cyclic variations of TSI together with successive very important influences of the causal feedback effects are the main fundamental causes of corresponding alternations in climate variation from warming to the Little Ice Age.

  38. Don McCollor says:

    …it was a long time ago, but the leaked “harry read me” comments as he is trying to fix a climate model are amusing….

  39. cdquarles says:

    You’re correct. I was a part of a NSF funded study of pyrolysis oil from tree sized weeds in 1977. Tree farming has been a thing here for nearly 60 years. In-situ Fischer-Tropsch/water shift coal to oil is already a thing, too. Carbonates, water, heat, pressure and anything ‘organic’ (substituted hydrocarbon based fuel cell living things) will do nicely. I say some of the central US features are a combination of tectonic plate business and impactors.

  40. gallopingcamel says:

    Here is Bill Whittle’s two cents on BLM:

  41. G. Combs says:

    Tony Heller’s Presentation In The Australian Parliament

    And while we are at it an interesting Stefan Molyneux and G. Edward Griffin video. Griffin mentions a meeting/conference with Dr Happer, Dr Ball and Lord Monckton (some where around 30 minute mark. I can’t get it to replay darn it!)

    I was aware of the Reid Supreme Court saying the Constitution is supreme over any treaty but Griffin mentioned a new decision making treaties supreme over the Constitution.

    A bit of research with a lot of interesting points

    Seems a president maybe able to cancel a treaty….

    The latest move by the globalist progressives is trying to tell us we have no choice but to abide by ALL the treaties and agreements signed by presidents.

  42. G. Combs says:

    ….Finally, there is a question of the limits of the treaty power. A treaty presumably cannot alter the constitutional structure of government, and the Supreme Court has said that executive agreements—and so apparently treaties—are subject to the limits of the Bill of Rights just as ordinary laws are. Reid v. Covert (1957). In Geofroy v. Riggs (1890), the Supreme Court also declared that the treaty power extends only to topics that are “properly the subject of negotiation with a foreign country.” However, at least in the modern world, one would think that few topics are so local that they could not, under some circumstances, be reached as part of the foreign-affairs interests of the nation….

    One view sees the power to make a treaty as distinct from the power of termination, with the latter being more akin to a power of implementation. Since the Constitution does not directly address the termination power, this view would give it to the President as part of the President’s executive powers to conduct foreign affairs and to execute the laws. When the termination question first arose in 1793, Washington and his Cabinet, which included Hamilton and Thomas Jefferson, embraced this view. All of them thought Washington could, on his own authority, terminate the treaty with France if necessary to keep the United States neutral……

    With respect to treaty termination, modern practice allows the President to terminate treaties on his own. In recent times, President James Earl Carter terminated the U.S.–Taiwan Mutual Defense Treaty in 1977, and President George W. Bush terminated the ABM Treaty with Russia in 2001. The Senate objected sharply to President Carter’s actions, but the Supreme Court rebuffed the Senate in Goldwater v. Carter (1979)….

    I remember reading the Dulles brothers were trying to promote the idea that a treaty is higher than the Constitution but if a treaty is treated the same as US law it would be just as subject to the Constitution as US law is.

    A look at a president withdrawing from a treaty.


  43. G. Combs says:

    Unless you have a better idea how about suggesting Robin Eubanks of http://invisibleserfscollar.com for a position in the Department of Education.


    If you think it is a good idea please forward his name to Sundance @ https://theconservativetreehouse.com/e-mail-request-guidelines/

    Sundance seems to have contacts with the Trump team and if he does not know the website he might be interested in featuring Robin.

    (I still can not contact theTreeHouse GRRrrrrr…)

    And yes I will be forwarding Robin’s name. I figure if a lot of us do it, he will get a better chance.

  44. gallopingcamel says:

    @Gail Combs,
    I am troubled by Robin Eubanks. He is one of the last people I would want making education policy in the USA.

    There is a rumor that Larry Arne is being considered for secretary of education. His understanding of the Constitution is so complete that I would expect him to dismantle the K-12 education hierarchy starting in Washington so that the control of our schools would be in the local community as Donald Trump mentions on page xiii of the preface of the book he published in August 2015 (Crippled America).

  45. Jeff says:

    Robin is a she. And what is the problem with her? Moreover, why?

  46. gallopingcamel says:

    I am color blind and gender blind. My problem with Robin Eubanks is her misrepresentation of what Trump said on the campaign trail and what is written in his book (Crippled America).

    Trump says he will close or “Curb” the federal Department of Education and return the control of our schools to the local community. That is what I have been working on for the last 23 years. I helped create eight locally controlled charter schools until the Educrats fought back by imposing “Common Core”. Here are links to two of them:

    Donald Trump has pledged to end Common Core and I will fight tooth and nail to ensure its demise. Common Core is just the latest in a long string of “Top Down” progressive education disasters. If Trump dismantles the education hierarchy it won’t be possible for a few activists to impose their ideas on the entire nation:

  47. Rob says:

    You could rubbish the recent claims about volcanoes:

    Climate change is hindering the planet-cooling properties of Earth’s volcanoes

    You’ve inspired me to write a number of Volcano posts over the years:


    They are based on your work, so will not expand your knowledge. I was doing the PR thing you disdain ;)

    I’ve learned a lot from your site and been entertained while doing so. Thank you and your commentators for that. I look forward to learning about whatever you focus on next.


  48. Glenn999 says:

    How about a project to write a piece of legislation that would ensure fair elections with no cheating for any state participating in a national election, such as House, Senate, and President? If we had a Rep who was interested in sponsorship and some guidance from certain Supervisors of Elections, perhaps a solid outline could go a long way to getting something produced. Lots of smart folks read your blog and a group of motivated/interested parties could collaborate. Imagine…

  49. H.R. says:


    Whoa! That’s a toughie. 1st, fraud is already against the law. 2nd, the states control the elections and some even leave the hardware choices up to the county boards of elections.

    But just making sure that the physical voting system has airtight integrity is a very interesting problem.

    I do like the old Eastern Bloc pictures of a wooden box with a slot surrounded by armed men, of course they were there to make sure you voted correctly, comrade ;o), but then we’re back to the problem of who counts the votes. Paper ballots are foolproof, but collecting and tabulating them honestly is a tough nut to crack.

  50. G. Combs says:

    EPA Chief Contemplates “Paralysis” From Donald Trump Administration…

    …..More and more Americans are becoming aware the larger climate goals have nothing to do with the environment, and are driven by a group of elites who have worked earnestly to create the pop culture narrative toward “climate change” as a social engineering tool…..

    Their unified goal (for decades) has been to create an entirely new secondary financial market where global elites can control all human activity beneath their ruling dictates. The essence of pushing the various “climate change” initiatives are simply tools to achieve this objective, nothing more.

    It is so nice to know others outside our echo chamber ‘get it’ Especially in a blog as big as the ConservativeTreeHouse who routinely has more than 300 comments.

  51. G. Combs says:

    EPA intentional release of Gold King Mine and polluting everything down stream all the way to California. The Animas joins the Colorado river and eventually flows to California.

    The Colorado River Aqueduct, or CRA, is a 242 mi (389 km) water conveyance in Southern California in the United States, operated by the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (MWD). The aqueduct impounds water from the Colorado River at Lake Havasu on the California-Arizona border west across the Mojave and Colorado deserts to the east side of the Santa Ana Mountains. It is one of the primary sources of drinking water for Southern California. —WIKI

    Why in heck were they digging a hole at the bottom of a dam!

    Yes, It is time to shut down the EPA.

  52. G. Combs says:

    Perhaps Donald Trump’s most memorable line in March 2016 speech at the AIPAC conference was in regards to the United Nations.

  53. Larry Ledwick says:

    Nice simple graphic on global temperatures from twitter, retweet from gab.ai
    gab.ai/SmythRadio Retweeted
    David Clarkson ‏@OldDaveClarkson Nov 23

    @SteveSGoddard I can’t get one believer in this to explain to me how Earth got so warm during Egyptian times and Roman times etc

  54. Gail Combs says:

    I really like that graph.

    These are the ones I like to post:

    H/T Jo Nova

    There had been a very intense debate in Quaternary Science regarding which of the most recent interglacials is the best analogue for the present Holocene. Lisiecki and Raymo, (2005) essentially quashed the Berger and Loutre’s 2002 modeling and no one has come forward with anything supporting an extended Holocene since then. NASA/NOAA of course use Berger’s computer modeling and ignore Lisiecki and Raymo empirical data.

    Lisiecki and Raymo (Paleooceanography, 2005) produced an exhaustive analysis of 57 globally distributed deep ocean cores reaching back about 5 million years.

    Lisiecki and Raymo’s conclusion?

    …the June 21 insolation minimum at 65N during MIS 11 is only 489 W/m2, much less pronounced than the present minimum of 474 W/m2. In addition, current insolation values are not predicted to return to the high values of late MIS 11 for another 65 kyr. We propose that this effectively precludes a ‘double precession-cycle’ interglacial [e.g., Raymo, 1997] in the Holocene without human influence….

    Current value – insolation = 479W m−2 (from that paper)

    MIS 7e – insolation = 463 W m−2,
    MIS 11c – insolation = 466 W m−2,
    MIS 13a – insolation = 500 W m−2,
    MIS 15a – insolation = 480 W m−2,
    MIS 17 – insolation = 477 W m−2

    (Changes near the north polar area, about 65 degrees North, are considered important due to the great amount of land. Land masses respond to temperature change more quickly than oceans.)

    Dr. Alley has shown the climate transitions abruptly within years to decades. For example the Wisconsin Glaciation to Holocene transition was less than three years!

    Onset of the Little Ice Age was right about when the Holocene reached a half precession cycle old. However we had the Modern Grand Solar Minimum now ending. SEE – A History of Solar Activity over Millennia So we are not out of the woods by a long shot. The Milankovitch Cycle low point will continue for 65 thousand years according to Lisiecki and Raymo. Yet these idiots in DC want to strip the earth of the CO2 security blanket that might be keeping us out of the next ice age. And to add insult to injury you can add the other papers showing C3 plants (99% of the plant species) were undergoing CO2 starvation when the earth was in the last glaciation.

    Lets put this another way. For glacial inception, the summer solstice insulation minimum during the Holocene analog, MIS-11, was 489 Watt/m2 @65N and in 2005 it was 474 Watt/m2 (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005).

    This means the earth need an ADDITIONAL 15 Watt/m2 to get to the insolation minimum in MIS-11. I am not familiar with any CO2 estimates which correlate with a 15 Watt/m2 rise in atmospheric forcing. (It takes about 5 Watts per square meter to raise the worlds temperature from 15°C to 16°C. )

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Schimel, 1996] estimated that the change solar forcing between 1850 and 1990 was only 0.3 W/m 2 at the top of the atmosphere vs. 1.5 W/m 2 for forcing anthropogenic CO2 forcing [cf., Reid, 1997]. Therefore to prevent glacial inception using anthropogenic CO2 forcing, we are still off by a factor of ten….

    Then you can Look at glacial inception using NOAA’s numbers (Berger) @ 60N not 65N

    Holocene peak insolation: 523 Wm-2
    ……………………………………………..decreased = 47 Wm-2
    NOW (modern Warm Period) 476 Wm-2
    …………………………………………….. difference = 12 Wm-2
    Depth of the last ice age – around 464 Wm−2

    11,000 years ago…………… 523.16 Wm-2 peak insolation
    Wisconsin Ice age- Holocene transition
    12,000 years ago…………… 522.50 Wm-2

    So once the Earth flips into the Ice Box mode there is no going back and the earth will be bumping along right in the transition zone for thousands of years. Therefore given this period in the earth’s cycles there is ZERO downside to increasing CO2 even if it does cause warming. All additional CO2 can do is feed plants and possibly keep us out of the next glaciation.

    I have yet to see anyone capable of refuting that. They might disagree on the double precession cycle but they can not get around the major decrease in sunlight at 65N.

  55. G. Combs says:

    Holy Hoodwink Batman!

    Natural News was on the Global Warming bandwagon. Seems he has discovered Tony Heller. AND better yet it is one of his more popular posts.

    June 23, 2014 http://www.naturalnews.com/045695_global_warming_fabricated_data_scientific_fraud.html

  56. A C Osborn says:

    Chefio, one thing that you could revisit is Earthquake activity, we seem to be getting quite a lot of it at the moment.

  57. gallopingcamel says:

    More CO2 is a wonderful thing for plants and if we manage to achieve 1,000 ppm there may even be a measurable increase in global temperature but I doubt if it will delay the next ice age significantly in spite of wild speculation by David Archer and others:

  58. Gail Combs says:

    P.G. I would like to see 1,500 ppm of CO2. And no it will not delay the next ice age. I put that in for the luke-warmers/believers because even if you think CO2 causes warming it isn’t enough to over come a 10% reduction in the sun’s energy at 65N.

    The reason for 1500 ppm is because as the earth gets colder and the cold oceans suck up CO2 there will be enough left for vegetation to thrive instead of being starved for CO2. also in higher CO2 plants need less water and given a dry glaciation that is a GOOD THING.

    A sleepy sun plus major volcanic action and you could flip the earth into the cold phase. If Dr Brown @ Duke is to be believed at this point in time the climate is bi-stable with the cold phase more stable/likely than the warm phase.

    “The Earth’s climate is manifestly, empirically bistable, with a warm phase and cold phase, and the cold phase is both more likely and more stable.”……

    Now, as for the “bistable” bit — if you look back at the first figure, you’ll see only two states in the last 2 million years — warm phase (interglacial) and cold phase (glaciation). There is no evidence of a warmer phase than the warm phase! Not even back when the average temperature was some 3C warmer than it is today — and that’s as much as the worst case CAGW prediction — and stable. There is no “tipping point”. Even when previous interglacials spiked up 2C to 3C warmer than today, they didn’t stay there because the warm phase is unstable, or rather, it is very stable from above, not so stable to cold excursions.

    Now this is something I know a bit about. Underneath this sort of behavior there is a very convoluted phase sheet with at least one fold and a surface or line of stability on a middle unstable sheet or branch. As long as one isn’t too near the folds, one is stable to temperature fluctuations that don’t “cross the line”. However, all things are not equal — something moves the Earth along these sheets over to the real tipping points — the ones that drop warm phase back down to cold or vice versa. The general trend of the Holocene has been cooling from the Holocene Optimum, and it is (as noted) not at all unlikely that we are near the tipping point — down — although we may have saved ourselves with CO_2 for at least a few centuries.

    What might trigger a transition? Perhaps an extended Maunder minimum. Perhaps something else. Our problem is that we don’t know why the ice age ended. We don’t know why the Younger Dryas happened as a bobble after the world warmed up. We don’t know why the Holocene is warm or the preceding period of glaciation cold. We don’t know when, or why, the Holocene will end, or whether anthropogenic CO_2 is having any effect on this either way.

    The number of things we don’t know that no climate scientist who is honest will claim that we know — is large enough to make me pull my little remaining hair and scream! And this is the basis of our settled science? …..

  59. p.g.sharrow says:

    @Gail; The one factor not considered is density altitude. The amount of atmosphere and therefore surface pressure is not stable. Any change in density altitude also changes the temperature, snow line and evaporation rate. Solar radiation, solar wind, Volcanic activity, meteor activity and ocean heating or cooling can change the amount of atmosphere that clings to a planet. We know that the average pan evaporation rate has decreased over the last 200 years, so this would indicate the amount and surface pressure of the atmosphere has risen, average surface temperature has increased as well. Changes in orbital mechanics will change subsurface tidal effects that result in changes in volcanic activities as well as tectonic plate movements and oceanic heating. Short term decreases in solar heating due to volcanic dust is replaced by long term surface warming due to increased atmospheric density…pg

  60. pearce m. schaudies says:

    Hi Chief #2. Greetings from the Big Mango (BKK). Here’s another new project: Where does the moisture come from for the Laurentide and Fenoscandian ice sheets? That is a mammoth in the kitchen, heh.

    If one considers obliquity increasing past 23.5 deg as an interglacial onset and falling past 23.5 the end, our Holocene ended 700 ya, with duration about 17.5 ky. The Younger Dryas and other extremes cut down the normal early warm part. The global temperature has been trending down about 1 C per thousand years, similar to past glacial inceptions, for more than 5000 yrs.

    I believe the summer insolation max in the SH drives atmospheric moisture and warm currents into NH, where at that time insolation is in a min phase. This lasts about 5000 yrs, then reverses. Then a sloppy polar vortex causes heavy snow in a band from 60 to 70 no. lat. The following 5000 yrs of NH max insolation can’t melt it, and Voila! Bigly ice sheet.

    What do think?
    Pearce M. Schaudies,
    Minister of Future

  61. Gail Combs says:

    Eons ago in one of my geology courses, my prof. mentioned it was not cold that caused an ice age but a major increase in SNOW such that mild summers could not melt it. Tony Heller/Steven Goddard has brought up the fact that the edges of the Laurentide Ice Sheet follow the same contours as the meridonal jet stream aka Polar Vortex. Shocking Polar Vortex From 20,000 Years Ago

    As the sun has gone sleepy the jet stream has gone from zonal to meridonal. This provides a much longer ‘line’ where tropical moisture laden air can clash with cold arctic air and produce major blizzards.

    For example:
    11/21/2014 – Buffalo NY “…the historic storm that dumped more than 7 feet (2.13 m) of snow on the area in only three days. Buffalo normally gets around 8 feet of snow during an entire winter season….”

    12/19/2014 – Japan “…Japan’s NHK news network reported that, as of the 18th, Niigata Prefecture Tsunan had snow height of 207 cm (6 ft – 8 inches), Nagano Nozawaonsen had 183 cm (6 ft) of snow, Gunma Minakami had 171 cm (5′-7″) of snow, etc…. These snowfall levels are far greater than in previous years….”

    2/3/2014 Record snowfall (almost 7 ft) in northern Iran – In Savadkouh, 40 to 50 houses crushed…

    21 August 2014 “…Due to the unprecedented quantity of snow that fell between December of last year and March of this year, almost 300 “snow patches” remain in Highland mountains despite the warm weather the region has enjoyed this summer….”

    And the next winter… August 27, 2015 — Massive Increase in Scottish Snow Patches or Névé. These are the beginnings of glaciers if they continue to remain and further compact. Scotland was also under glaciation during the Wisconsin Ice age.

    Italy captured the world’s one day snow fall record in March of 2015 TWICE.
    240cm (7.84 ft) in Pescocostanzo
    256cm (8.34 ft) of snow Capracotta

    10 feet (3 meters) of snow fell on Passolanciano, Majella burying the chairlifts (6 Mar 2015 ) and Record snow fell in Abruzzo, Italy, 5 & 6 Mar 2015

    Not far away, the Greek islands in the Mediterranean were buried under 6½ ft (2 m) of snow in January. link

    In Norway they were forced to remove excessive snow from ski slopes – “During the last two days we’ve got more snow than we had in the last two years together,” says Vegar Sårheim. “I had never believed we would experience this.”

    NOTE: The articles and quotations were gleaned from Ice Age Now.
    This year reporting Snowiest October in Northern Hemisphere at least since the 1960s

    Amazing how these errrr interesting events are NEVER EVER reported in the US MSM.

  62. pearce m. schaudies says:

    @Gail. Hi, thanks for supporting links that show ‘This is how a glacial cycle begins.’ I should point out for other interested amateurs, a ‘sloppy polar vortex’s is code for ‘ ice free warm arctic ocean.’ heh.

    Pearce M. Schaudies,
    Minister of Future

  63. Gail Combs says:

    This is an old article at WUWT May 7, 2012 Solar grand minima linked to cooling period in Europe

    …A quick cooling in Europe together with an increase in humidity and particularly in windiness was found to coincide with a long-term reduction in solar activity 2800 years ago during something called the “Homeric minimum”…. Approximately 2800 years ago, one of these Grand Solar Minima, the Homeric Minimum, caused a distinct climatic change in less than a decade in Western Europe.

    Actual paper:
    Regional atmospheric circulation shifts induced by a grand solar minimum

    Given the current ‘sleepy sun’ it looks like we get to live through ‘interesting times.’

  64. Larry Ledwick says:

    Item by Joe D’Aleo from weather bell


    The idea of glaciation starting with a “snow blitz” was popularized in the 1970’s when there was talk of global cooling. The theory was that heavy snows (blizzard a couple years ago in the Dakotas which killed thousands of cattle and pushed up beef prices), lead to late melt off of snow cover in spring and into summer. Higher albedo of the long snow cover slowly changes the heat balance and as you mention Gail at some point the snow drifts don’t completely melt before early fall snows start the build up again.

    Theory was that once you get a year or two of year around snow cover in the great lakes and Hudson Bay region then that quickly becomes a self reinforcing cycle where each year the snow cover lasts longer and covers more area eventually becoming a regional year round snow field and then over time a snow cap changing to compacted glacier. Then the cold plunge takes off in earnest.

    I am inclined to believe that the truth is a blending of a half dozen or so of these postulated “triggers” which through random chance happen to converge at the same time.

    For example conditions for northern plains central Canadian shield snows being exceptionally deep, happen to converge with properly timed and located volcanic activity to lower sun intensity at the ground and increases high altitude albedo due to sulfur clouds, and a solar down cycle which matches with Milankovitch Cycle changes in earth isolation.

    Throw in a lucky convergence of timing in north Atlantic oscillation and ENSO / El Nino cycles and the combined effect is probably what flips the switch but all have to converge with the right timing and intensity.

    The best analogy I can think of is microphone feed back when the amplifier gain is set a bit too high in a meeting room. It first it flirts with going into feed back on audio peaks or when the speaker gets a bit too close to the mike but recovers several times then due to some random unpredictable change in the room acoustics (more people enter the room, someone opens a door and increases the sound level in the room just a tad) then the same events that used to cause it to flirt with feed back now cross a threshold and it goes into ear splitting feed back. You can’t put your finger on what the exact last straw was that pushed the system in to feedback loop that runs away but you had warnings it was very close to that limit for some time before one final push was too much.

    I think the “scientists” are chasing a phantom trying to find “the cause” because it is not one single primary trigger but a confluence of several inputs which flip the bistable climate flip flop to cold from warm.

  65. Gail Combs says:

    I agree with you Larry.
    The shape of the Laurentide Ice Sheet suggests a lock into a meridonal jet stream.
    A fall 2012 paper Can we predict the duration of an interglacial? gives the calculated solar insolation values of several glacial inceptions:
    Current values are insolation = 479W m−2 (June 21 insolation minimum at 65N)

    MIS 7e – insolation = 463 W m−2
    MIS 11c – insolation = 466 W m−2
    MIS 13a – insolation = 500 W m−2
    MIS 15a – insolation = 480 W m−2
    MIS 17 – insolation = 477 W m−2

    NOAA’s calculations show how close to the Solar Insolation (June 21 insolation minimum at 60N) during the LOW POINT of the Wisconsin Ice Age the earth now is:

    NOW (modern Warm Period) 476 Wm-2
    Depth of the last ice age – around 463 Wm−2 — just 13 Wm-2 lower
    Holocene peak insolation: 522.5 Wm-2 — 46.5 Wm-2 higher
    So the Milankovitch Cycle sets the stage for glaciation but something else kicks the earth into a cold phase and the earth can not recover at the low solar energy phase of the Milankovitch Cycle.

    A grand Solar minimum, a Dansgaard-Oeschger/ Heinrich event, the north/south lunar tides, volcanoes… are all possibles or a combination. CO2 is not in the running.

  66. pearce m. schaudies says:

    @Larry. Hi, I agree it must be a ‘Convergence of Chaos’ to trigger or entrain 5 nonlinear oscillators. We should be making lots more measurements in all oceans.

  67. pearce m. schaudies says:

    @Gail. Hi, and thanks for link to solar at WUWT. I was surprised to see Leif set it up. He is always denying strong solar influence. Well, I say it’s photons or tachyons, heh. Also have to say big Oops, my Mk-1 eyeballs need recalibrating. the chart I read insolation off of had 10ky grid, but insolation not modulated, so might consider middle 5k out of 10k.

    As to previous cycle comparisons, I like MIS-9. All will be revealed by 2025, stay tuned.

    Pearce M. Schaudies,
    Minister of Future

  68. E.M.Smith says:


    Short answer: The Global Ocean.


    Longer answer: IMHO, during hot sun phases, a LOT more UV (like several %) goes deep into the ocean AND gets absorbed in high altitudes making a warmer stratosphere. Then a cold phase comes. Now the IR goes higher, UV lower.

    The high atmosphere cools and shortens (NASA recorded the TOA decending this sleepy sun turn). This does several things. The polar vortex is squashed down, so spreads out, and makes colder higher velocity outflows and more meridional flow patterns. The shorter atmosphere also means high altitude places like mountains are functionally at higher pressure altitudes, so colder and more snow / glacial accumulation. This now colder air is dry from freezing, so IR has a clearer path to space, starting a cold to dry to colder to drier cycle.

    In the ocean, IR causes prompt evaporation at the surface, increasing water vapor and slowly cooling the ocean. The end of deep UV heating and reduced deep blue heating eventually starves ocean currents a little. This slows the Gulf Steam and puts Europe in a sudden cold vice, while backing up heat in Florida (paper looked at pollen and such in Florida during glacials, found it warms a bit…). So now you have both more water vapor, longer storm runs in meridional flow, and also colder mountaintops collecting it as snow and ice.

    The ice age glacial starts from the top down…. in the global mountains.

    Now a perverse 3rd phase starts. The oceans drop while the ice sheet rises. High altitudes are increasingly higher, so colder and icy. Several hundred feet from ocean drop, up to a couple of miles from ice sheet depth. At 12000 feet ( 10000 of ice on 1600 of present elevation and 400 of ocean drop) it will never be warm and any water vapor arriving freezes out, assuring ongoing IR freepath to space. At the same time albedo reflect more of what sun comes, and the oceans cool.

    This is a stable phase that holds to much high sun than at present. About 100000 years.

    Eventually, sun about 500+ W/m^2, high in uv starts to warm the ocean again, thickens the atmospheric height, and we start getting Gulf Stream warmth creating rain to replace snows. Accumulated dust from the horrific droughts at the end of glacials, with CO2 starvation of plants denuding land, gets darkened snow absorbing sun. Now all the feedbacks run the other way. Oceans rising, rains higher up mountains melting off glaciers, etc.

    But warm rains melt snow fast, so exit is quick. Cold comes early in a glacial, but water evaporates slowly from the ocean. The glacial ice accumulates over 100000 years, but leaves in just a few thousand. Warmth is capped once hurricanes and temperate thunderstorms form as the atmosphere converts to a spherical heat pipe earth… like now.

  69. pearce m. schaudies says:

    @Chief. Hi, I think that ties up all the loose ends, thanks. Have you seen a paper tieing in Hadley, Feral, Polar cells and moving ITCZ? jus curious.

    Pearce M. Schaudies,
    Minister of Future

  70. pearce m. schaudies says:

    @Chief. Here’s good parameter site, Swiss army knife, heh.

    This site usually updates 2am est. The jet stream has some meander, and if check sea surface temp shows some anomaly with Gulf Stream, new upwelling in lite blue just no. cape Hatteras going no. to nova Scotia where it almost gets cut by purple Lab current going do. Brits could have very cold winter.


    Pearce M. Schaudies,
    Minister of Future

  71. Larry Ledwick says:

    One other little tidbit in that scenario, as the snow fields and early glaciers begin to build you start to get almost perpetual cold katabatic winds coming off the ice fields and sweeping out over the nearby terrain chilling it so snow is more likely to stick when it falls in the fall and remain frozen longer in the early spring. This constant cold also shifts the ground cover from trees and brush to tundra terrain which cools to the sky better than wooded terrain where the trees and the dead air between them act as an insulating “fur coat” for the terrain on clear nights and during the day create a dark absorbing surface compared to wind swept snow and tundra vegetation.

  72. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry: Nice catch on the biota… and I missed the katabatic wind angle. Nice.

    @Pearce: IMHO, Steven Wilde likely has the best take on the meridional shift process.


    We diverge a bit on stratospheric heating vs temperature semantics, but English is poor on heat where “heating” can mean energy gain w/o temp change, temp change, or both change.

  73. E.M.Smith says:

    Oh, and the process ought to also include ocean current changes as Drake’s Passage shallows (as poted in a Drake article here) and ice grounding / ungrounding in the Arctic basin with Bering Strait closure (as in my other article).

    Maybe I need to write up the grand unified Ice Age Glacial changes list ;-)

  74. Gail Combs says:

    E.M. Glad you included Drake’s Passage. I think that is another critical point that is completely missed by, or rather ignored by the Alarmists.

    >>>>Down the rabbit hole<<<<

    fhhaynie, retired EPA scientist, says: @ WUWT January 18, 2014 at 8:24 am

    If I were asked to pick a single point on earth that most likely has the greatest effect on global weather and climate, it would be 0 and 90W (Galapagos). This is where El-nino winds, the deep sea Cromwell current, the Panama current, and the Humboldt current meet. These flows are not constant and each has different cycles and those cycles are not constant. Cycles on cycles create extremes in weather and climate. These extremes have an effect globally. I suspect these cycles are also controlling our observed atmospheric concentration of CO2. CO2 is very likely a lagging indicator and not a cause of climate change.

    If you look at this Sea Surface Temperature map it has a good image of the tongue of cold water from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current just before Drake Passage, headed up the coast of South America to Galapagos. It is called the Humboldt current.

    The above map shows the tongue of cold water headed into the Atlantic along Africa too.

    An animated gif: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycom1-12/navo/globalsst_nowcast_anim30d.gif

    The following is a typical map of sea currents/heat transfer from NASA notice what is missing.

    This is a better map


  75. Gail Combs says:

    Following the rabbit:
    I have pages and pages of notes on Drake Passage. Here are a few.

    The Humbolt current “is a cold, low-salinity ocean current that flows north along the west coast of South America from the southern tip of Chile to northern Peru.” (WIKI) and the Cape Horn Current. ” is a cold water current that flows west-to-east around Cape Horn. This current is caused by the intensification of the West Wind Drift as it rounds the cape….” (WIKI)

    A better source: CHAPTER 31 OCEAN CURRENTS: TYPES AND CAUSES OF CURRENTS (Maritime Safety Information)

    So as the West Wind Drift or Antarctic Circumpolar Current hits the restrictions from Drake Passage or Cape Horn, cold water is sent up the sides of South America and Africa. So what drives changes in these currents moving up the coasts is the intensity of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current is WIND DRIVEN.

    You are not going to find any study actually discussing the whole issue just bits and pieces.

    Has there been a change in wind intensity? — Yes.
    2008 The response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to recent climate change

    Observations show a significant intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies, the prevailing winds between the latitudes of 30° and 60° S, over the past decades. A continuation of this intensification trend is projected by climate scenarios for the twenty-first century. The response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the carbon sink in the Southern Ocean to changes in wind stress and surface buoyancy fluxes is under debate….

    Back to the effect of Drake Passage.
    Drake Passage and palaeoclimate

    ABSTRACT: The effect of Drake Passage on the Earth’s climate is examined using an idealised coupled model. It is found that the opening of Drake Passage cools the high latitudes of the southern hemisphere by about 3°C and warms the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere by nearly the same amount. This study also attempts to determine whether the width and depth of the Drake Passage channel is likely to be an important factor in the thermal response. A deeper channel is shown to produce more southern cooling but the magnitude of the effect is not large. Channel geometry is relatively unimportant in the model because of a haline response that develops when the channel is first opened up….

    Today, the band of open water around Antarctica is most restricted between the tip of South America and the Palmer Peninsula, a feature known as Drake Passage. In one of the earliest scientific papers written about the output of an ocean general circulation model, Gill and Bryan (1971) showed how a gap such as Drake Passage alters the ocean’s meridional circulation and heat transport. With Drake Passage closed, the ocean transports heat southward by moving warm water poleward near the surface. Cooling at the Antarctic margin leads to deep-water formation and the northward flow of cold water at depth. With Drake Passage open, warm upper ocean water from the north is unable to flow into or across the channel because there is no net east–west pressure gradient to balance the effect of the Earth’s rotation. The ocean’s ability to transport heat southward is thereby diminished. Cox (1989), England (1992) and Mikolajewicz et al. (1993) carried out similar experiment…..

    Research on Drakes Passage using lab experiments with a simplified geometry.
    Drake Passage Effect Without the Drake Passage

    A global-scale circulation carries about 10 or 20 million tons per second of relatively warm water northward into the top kilometer of the North Atlantic Ocean. The water cools off, sinks, and returns southward as a relatively dense flow of “North Atlantic Deep Water” (NADW, see Fig. 1). This NADW “overturning” circulation may have an important influence on the climate of Europe, and has been implicated in abrupt climate changes at the end of the last ice age.

    The experiments address a fundamental question of how the circulation of the ocean works. Since the global overturning circulation is apparently sensitive to wind even in regions where the ocean has eastern and western boundaries, it may be influenced by wind outside the Drake Passage latitudes. However, our results indicate that the unique geometry of the Drake Passage latitudes does make the global circulation – and perhaps the climate of the North Atlantic – especially sensitive to wind there.

    Effect of Drake Passage on the global thermohaline circulation
    The Ekman divergence around Antarctica raises a large amount of deep water to the ocean’s surface. The regional Ekman transport moves the upwelled deep water northward out of the circumpolar zone. The divergence and northward surface drift combine, in effect, to remove deep water from the interior of the ocean. This wind-driven removal process is facilitated by a unique dynamic constraint operating in the latitude band containing Drake Passage. Through a simple model sensitivity experiment WC show that the upwelling and removal of deep water in the circumpolar belt may be quantitatively related to the formation of new deep water in the northern North Atlantic. These results show that stronger winds in the south can induct more deep water formation in the north and more deep outflow through the South Atlantic. The fact that winds in the southern hemisphere might influence the formation of deep water in the North Atlantic brings into question long-standing notions about the forces that drive the ocean’ thermohaline circulation….


  76. Gail Combs says:


    Bob Tisdale plots a very strong drop in Southern Ocean SST around 2007:

    The drop in Southern Ocean SST is associated with record westerly winds and current along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the by far the worlds strongest and the only one that connects all ocean basins.. The increase in current speed is also causing record upwelling of cold water. The record sea ice is causing record deep water formation rates due to salt rejection and dense water creation . The AMOC or the giant ocean conveyor belt begins in the southern ocean. Look for the cold to come to us in the near future.

    (Ice Age Now recorded massive snowfall from 2014 to 2015… interrupted by an El Nino.)

    A look at what could cause a change in the wind strength driving the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.
    Sunspots, the QBO, and the Stratosphere in the North Polar Region – 20 Years later

    ….Results for the entire data set fully confirm the early findings and suggest a significant effect of the SSC [the 11-year sunspot cycle] on the strenght of the stratospheric polar vortex and the mean meridional circulation.


    The results of this study showed that the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortex plays an important part in the mechanism of solar-climatic links. The vortex strength reveals a roughly 60-year periodicity influencing the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the sign of SA/GCR effects on the development of baric systems at middle and high latitudes. The vortex location is favorable for the mechanisms of solar activity influence on the troposphere circulation involving variations of different agents (GCR intensity, UV fluxes). In the periods of a strong vortex changes of the vortex intensity associated with solar activity phenomena seem to affect temperature contrasts in tropospheric frontal zones and the development of extratropical cyclogenesis.

    They actually did field research in this study on atmospheric circulation shifts.
    06 May 2012 Nature Geoscience | Letter Regional atmospheric circulation shifts induced by a grand solar minimum

    Large changes in solar ultraviolet radiation can indirectly affect climate by inducing atmospheric changes. Specifically, it has been suggested that centennial-scale climate variability during the Holocene epoch was controlled by the Sun. However, the amplitude of solar forcing is small when compared with the climatic effects and, without reliable data sets, it is unclear which feedback mechanisms could have amplified the forcing. Here we analyse annually laminated sediments of Lake Meerfelder Maar, Germany, to derive variations in wind strength and the rate of 10Be accumulation, a proxy for solar activity, from 3,300 to 2,000 years before present. We find a sharp increase in windiness and cosmogenic 10Be deposition 2,759  ±  39 varve years before present and a reduction in both entities 199  ±  9 annual layers later. We infer that the atmospheric circulation reacted abruptly and in phase with the solar minimum. A shift in atmospheric circulation in response to changes in solar activity is broadly consistent with atmospheric circulation patterns in long-term climate model simulations, and in reanalysis data that assimilate observations from recent solar minima into a climate model. We conclude that changes in atmospheric circulation amplified the solar signal and caused abrupt climate change about 2,800 years ago, coincident with a grand solar minimum.


    Ozone is an important atmospheric trace constituent. The depletion of solar radiation between approximately 2000 and 3000 A is the result of strong absorption by ozone in the ultraviolet wave-lengths. The energy absorbed in this process is the prime source of thermal energy in the stratosphere. Because of this, ozone plays an important role in the large-scale motions of the atmosphere….

    ….A strong correlation was found between the meridional gradient of total ozone and the wind velocity in jet stream systems…..

    So there is the tie-in between changes in the solar energy profile, ozone and the wind velocity in the jet stream systems.

  77. Gail Combs says:

    pearce m. schaudies says: “…Have you seen a paper tieing in Hadley, Feral, Polar cells and moving ITCZ?…”

    From some information I put together a while ago.
    Sun, Ozone, Polar Jet and the Brewer-Dobson Circulation

    Let me see if I can trace the different steps via various papers. No one has put it together in one paper because it would kill or at least challenge CAGW. I was thinking I should organize my notes and lay it out anyway.

    First NASA has finally admitted that the sun is not constant and although the Total Solar Insolation is relatively constant the distribution of the energy among wavelengths is not. This is the critical point.

    In recent years, SIM has collected data that suggest the sun’s brightness may vary in entirely unexpected ways. If the SIM’s spectral irradiance measurements are validated and proven accurate over time, then certain parts of Earth’s atmosphere may receive surprisingly large doses of solar radiation even during lulls in solar activity.

    “We have never had a reason until now to believe that parts of the spectrum may vary out of phase with the solar cycle, but now we have started to model that possibility because of the SIM results,” …
    “Between 2004 and 2007, the Solar Irradiance Monitor (blue line) measured a decrease in ultraviolet radiation (less than 400 nanometers) that was a factor of four to six larger than expected.” (wwwDOT)nasa.gov/topics/solarsystem/features/solarcycle-sorce.html

    2007 was before the deep solar minimum.
    “…A 12-year low in solar “irradiance”: Careful measurements by several NASA spacecraft show that the sun’s brightness has dropped by 0.02% at visible wavelengths and 6% at extreme UV wavelengths since the solar minimum of 1996….” science(DOT)nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/01apr_deepsolarminimum/

    NASA has also admitted different wavelengths of sunlight do different things in different parts of the atmosphere.
    Solar Spectral Irradiance Data

    Research and Applications
    Because of selective absorption and scattering processes in the Earth’s atmosphere, different regions of the solar spectrum affect Earth’s climate in distinct ways. Approximately 20-25% of the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) is absorbed by atmospheric water vapor, clouds, and ozone, by processes that are strongly wavelength dependent. Ultraviolet radiation at wavelengths below 300 nm is completely absorbed by the Earth’s atmosphere and contributes the dominant energy source in the stratosphere and thermosphere, establishing the upper atmosphere’s temperature, structure, composition, and dynamics. Even small variations in the Sun’s radiation at these short wavelengths will lead to corresponding changes in atmospheric chemistry. Radiation at the longer visible and infrared wavelengths penetrates into the lower atmosphere, where the portion not reflected is partitioned between the troposphere and the Earth’s surface, and becomes a dominant term in the global energy balance and an essential determinant of atmospheric stability and convection.

    Sunlight + oxygen (O2) ===> O + O
    (Oxygen is disassociated in to two atoms and wants to glom onto something.)
    O + O2 ====> O3 (ozone)

    The reverse also happens in the atmosphere so the formation and destruction of ozone is dependent on the shifting of the amount of solar radiation at different wavelengths and NASA has shown those amounds DO SHIFT.

    image from: http://www.oxidationsystems.com/products/ozone.html

  78. Gail Combs says:

    Changes in Ozone and Stratospheric Temperature Graph by NASA.

    The graph above shows total ozone and stratospheric temperatures over the Arctic since 1979. Changes in ozone amounts are closely linked to temperature, with colder temperatures resulting in more polar stratospheric clouds and lower ozone levels. Atmospheric motions drive the year-to-year temperature changes. The Arctic stratosphere cooled slightly since 1979, but scientists are currently unsure of the cause….

    Top-Down Solar Modulation of Climate: evidence for centennial-scale change

    The work presented here is consistent with the interpretation of a recently reported effect [25] of solar variability on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and European winter temperatures over the interval 1659–2010 in terms of top-down modulation of the blocking phenomenon [52, 53]. In fact, Woollings et al [26] show that the solar response pattern is, despite being similar in form to that of the NAO, significantly different in that it reaches further east. These authors also show that open solar flux has a much stronger control over blocking events in this sector than the previously reported effect of F10.7 [55]. There is seasonality in the solar responses reported here. This is expected as modulation of upwards-propagating planetary waves in wintertime, and the associated stratosphere– troposphere interaction, is most widely believed to be the key mechanism [8, 11]. In addition, the tropospheric signature is a response of the eddy-driven jet streams, and these are at their strongest and most responsive in winter. While the results are presented here as annual means, the regression analysis was actually carried out on monthly mean data and thus takes this seasonality into account. The seasonal evolution of the F10.7 cm flux regression was described in detail by Frame and Gray [53] and this was not significantly affected by using either the open solar flux FS nor the cosmic ray flux, M, instead of F10.7.”

    Quasi-biennial oscillation and solar cycle influences on winter Arctic total ozone


    The total column ozone (TCO) observed from satellites and assimilated in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts since 1979 is used as an atmospheric tracer to study the modulations of the winter Arctic stratosphere by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the solar cycle. It is found that both the QBO and solar forcings in low latitudes can perturb the late winter polar vortex, likely via planetary wave divergence, causing an early breakdown of the vortex in the form of sudden stratospheric warming. As a result, TCO within the vortex in late winter can increase by ~60 Dobson unit during either a solar maximum or an easterly phase of the QBO, or both, relative to the least perturbed state when the solar cycle is minimum and the QBO is in the westerly phase. In addition, from the solar maximum to the solar minimum during the QBO easterly phase, the change in TCO is found to be statistically insignificant. Therefore, the “reversal” of the Holton–Tan effect, reported in some previous studies using lower stratospheric temperature, is not evident in the TCO behavior of both observation and assimilation.

    The influence of solar variability and the quasi-biennial oscillation on lower atmospheric temperatures and sea level pressure

    We investigate an apparent inconsistency between two published results concerning the temperature of the winter polar stratosphere and its dependence on the state of the Sun and the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). We find that the differences can be explained by the use of the authors of different pressure levels to define the phase of the QBO.

    We identify QBO and solar cycle signals in sea level pressure (SLP) data using a multiple linear regression approach. First we used a standard QBO time series dating back to 1953. In the SLP observations dating back to that time we find at high latitudes that individually the solar and QBO signals are weak but that a temporal index representing the combined effects of the Sun and the QBO shows a significant signal. This is such that combinations of low solar activity with westerly QBO and high solar activity with easterly QBO are both associated with a strengthening in the polar modes; while the opposite combinations coincide with a weakening. This result is true irrespective of the choice of QBO pressure level. By employing a QBO dataset reconstructed back to 1900, we extended the analysis and also find a robust signal in the surface SAM; though weaker for surface NAM.

    Our results suggest that solar variability, modulated by the phase of QBO, influences zonal mean temperatures at high latitudes in the lower stratosphere and subsequently affect sea level pressure near the poles. Thus a knowledge of the state of the Sun, and the phase of the QBO might be useful in surface climate prediction.

    Climate System Response to Stratospheric Ozone Depletion and Recovery

    Compared to well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs), the radiative forcing of climate due to observed stratospheric ozone loss is very small: in spite of this, recent trends in stratospheric ozone have caused profound changes in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate system, primarily by altering the tropospheric midlatitude jet, which is commonly described as a change in the Southern Annular Mode. Ozone depletion in the late twentieth century was the primary driver of the observed poleward shift of the jet during summer, which has been linked to changes in tropospheric and surface temperatures, clouds and cloud radiative effects, and precipitation at both middle and low latitudes. It is emphasized, however, that not all aspects of the SH climate response to stratospheric ozone forcing can be understood in terms of changes in the midlatitude jet. The response of the Southern Ocean and sea ice to ozone depletion is currently a matter of debate. ….

    06 May 2012 Nature Geoscience | Letter Regional atmospheric circulation shifts induced by a grand solar minimum

    Large changes in solar ultraviolet radiation can indirectly affect climate by inducing atmospheric changes. Specifically, it has been suggested that centennial-scale climate variability during the Holocene epoch was controlled by the Sun. However, the amplitude of solar forcing is small when compared with the climatic effects and, without reliable data sets, it is unclear which feedback mechanisms could have amplified the forcing. Here we analyse annually laminated sediments of Lake Meerfelder Maar, Germany, to derive variations in wind strength and the rate of 10Be accumulation, a proxy for solar activity, from 3,300 to 2,000 years before present. We find a sharp increase in windiness and cosmogenic 10Be deposition 2,759  ±  39 varve years before present and a reduction in both entities 199  ±  9 annual layers later. We infer that the atmospheric circulation reacted abruptly and in phase with the solar minimum. A shift in atmospheric circulation in response to changes in solar activity is broadly consistent with atmospheric circulation patterns in long-term climate model simulations, and in reanalysis data that assimilate observations from recent solar minima into a climate model. We conclude that changes in atmospheric circulation amplified the solar signal and caused abrupt climate change about 2,800 years ago, coincident with a grand solar minimum.

    Stratospheric polar vortex as a possible reason for temporal variations of solar activity and galactic cosmic ray effects on the lower atmosphere circulation


    “Possible reasons for the temporal instability of long-term effects of solar activity (SA) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) variations on the lower atmosphere circulation were studied. It was shown that the detected earlier ∼60-year oscillations of the amplitude and sign of SA/GCR effects on the troposphere pressure at high and middle latitudes (Veretenenko and Ogurtsov, Adv.Space Res., 2012) are closely related to the state of a cyclonic vortex forming in the polar stratosphere. The intensity of the vortex was found to reveal a roughly 60-year periodicity affecting the evolution of the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the character of SA/GCR effects. An intensification of both Arctic anticyclones and mid-latitudinal cyclones associated with an increase of GCR fluxes at minima of the 11-year solar cycles is observed in the epochs of a strong polar vortex. In the epochs of a weak polar vortex SA/GCR effects on the development of baric systems at middle and high latitudes were found to change the sign. The results obtained provide evidence that the mechanism of solar activity and cosmic ray influences on the lower atmosphere circulation involves changes in the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortex.”

    Before the start of Solar Cycle 24 you can see the effect of the Grand Solar Maximun on the Antarctic.

    Decadal Scale Temperature Trends in the Southern Hemisphere Ocean Journal of Climate, 2008.

    Long-term trends in the heat content of the Southern Hemisphere ocean are evaluated by comparing temperature profiles collected during the 1990s with profiles collected starting in the 1930s. Data are drawn both from ship-based hydrographic surveys and from autonomous floats. Results show that the upper 1000 m of the Southern Hemisphere ocean has warmed substantially during this time period at all depths. Warming is concentrated within the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). On a global scale, this warming trend implies that the ocean has gained heat from the atmosphere over the last 50 to 70 years. Although the data do not preclude the possibility that the Southern Ocean has warmed as a result of increased heat fluxes, either into the ocean or within the ocean, in general the strong trend in the Southern Ocean appears regionally consistent with a poleward migration of the ACC, possibly driven by long-term poleward shifts in the winds of the region, as represented by the southern annular mode.
    (www)-pord.ucsd.edu/~sgille/pub_dir/i1520-0442-21-18-4749.pdf“ entitled

    A team of British and American scientists has discovered a new method to detect major weather events occurring 32 km up in the Earth’s stratosphere. Cosmic rays, detected 0.8 km beneath the planet’s surface in an obsolete iron mine, have the potential to identify weather event…
    Scientists discover underground cosmic rays can detect major weather events…

    ‘Up until now we have relied on weather balloons and satellite data to provide information about these major weather events,’ explained Dr Scott Osprey, lead scientist for the NCAS. ‘Now we can potentially use records of cosmic ray data dating back to 50 years to give us a pretty accurate idea of what was happening to the temperature in the stratosphere over this time. Looking forward, data being collected by other large underground detectors around the world can also be used to study this phenomenon.’

    The scientists said the cosmic rays (also known as muons) are generated following the decay of other cosmic rays (known as mesons). Researchers recognise that when the atmosphere’s temperature rises, it expands, leading to the destruction of fewer mesons on air impact. This leaves more mesons to decay naturally to muons, and so the number of muons detected increases.

  79. A C Osborn says:

    Gail, you and E M may be interested in the work on Glaciation by
    Clive Best at


    and some work on Glaciation and Drakes Passage by Tim Cullen at


    He also has some very interesting Historical Science that has been “forgotten” since AGW reared it’s ugly lying head.
    Mind you he also has some quite strange views as well, E M should like some of his stuff.

  80. A C Osborn says:

    I forgot to say, the Drake’s Passage stuff is way back, maybe 2 or 3 years ago or even more.

  81. Gail Combs says:

    This is why I posted papers on the QBO (Quasi-Biennial-Oscillation) and ozone and its effects.

    3.2 The Brewer-Dobson Circulation in the Tropics

    The air that is slowly lifted out of the tropical troposphere into the stratosphere (see Figure 6.02 and 6.03) is very dry, with low ozone, and high CFC levels (see Figure 1.07 of Chapter 1). This tropical lifting circulation out of the lower stratosphere is quite slow, on the order of 20-30 meters per day. Most of the air rising into the stratosphere at the tropopause never makes it into the upper stratosphere. Between 16 and 32 km, the air density decreases by about 90%. This means that of the mass coming into the stratosphere at 16 km, approximately 90% of that mass will move towards the middle latitudes rather than be carried up to 32 km.

    3.2.1 Ozone Source Region — Air in the troposphere has relatively low ozone concentrations, except in highly polluted urban environments. Even polluted regions are relatively low when compared to stratospheric levels. As this “ozone clean” air moves slowly upward in the tropical stratosphere, ozone is being created by the slow photochemical production caused by the interaction of solar UV radiation and molecular oxygen.

    Ozone is created in this region because it is here that the Sun, positioned high overhead during the day all year long, is most intense. There is enough of the necessary sufficiently energetic UV light to split apart molecular oxygen, O2, and form ozone (see Chapters 1 and 5 for discussion of ozone production). It typically takes more than 6 months for air at 16 km (near the tropical tropopause) to rise up to about 27 km.

    Even though ozone production is small and slow in the lower tropical stratosphere, the slow lifting circulation allows enough time for ozone to build-up. Figure 6.03 shows this ozone density maximum up near 27 km. It is this that is commonly referred to as the “ozone layer”.

    3.3 The Brewer-Dobson Circulation in the Extratropical Latitudes
    In the stratosphere, the Brewer-Dobson circulation carries air from the equator to the poles. Poleward of about 30°N and 30°S, the circulation becomes downward as well as poleward. This poleward and downward circulation tends to increase ozone concentrations in the lower stratosphere of the middle and high (i.e. extratropical) latitudes. In Figure 6.03, we see this increase of ozone at lower altitudes in the higher latitudes as a direct result of this circulation.

    Another reason that ozone amounts increase in the lower stratosphere in the extratropical latitudes is that the lifetime of an ozone molecule gets longer here….Thus, ozone is not easily destroyed in the lower stratosphere. As a result, ozone can accumulate as the Brewer-Dobson circulation moves air poleward from the tropical production region into higher latitudes and downward into lower altitudes.

    3.4 <b.Theory of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation: Why Does It Exist?
    The mechanism behind the Brewer-Dobson circulation is both complex and quite interesting. At first glance, we might expect that the circulation results from solar heating in the tropics, and cooling in the polar region, causing a large equator to pole (meridional) overturning of air as warm (tropical) air rises and cold (polar) air sinks. While this heating and cooling does indeed occur, and while such a meridional overturning exists in the form of the so-called Hadley circulation (see section 3.8.1), it is not the specific reason for the existence of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Rather, the Brewer-Dobson circulation results from wave motions in the extratropical stratosphere.

    3.4.1 Standing Planetary Waves and Wave Breaking
    — One type of atmospheric wave that exists is called the Rossby wave. Named for Carl G. Rossby, an early atmospheric research scientist, the Rossby wave exists due to a combination of meridional temperature gradients and the rotation of the planet (which produces the Coriolis force). The Rossby wave is a large-scale wave system whose size is thousands of kilometers in the horizontal and several kilometers in the vertical.

    Large-scale topographical features, like the Rocky Mountains and the Himalaya-Tibet complex, together with the meridional temperature gradients and Coriolis deflection, create a variation of Rossby waves called standing planetary waves. These have very long wavelengths (up to 10,000 kilometers) and either remain stationary or move slowly westward (i.e., they move easterly). They eventually propagate vertically into the stratosphere.

    3.4.2 Polar Night Jet Deceleration and Radiative Imbalance
    When a standing planetary wave reaches the stratosphere, it deposits its easterly momentum, decelerating the westerly wintertime stratospheric jet stream. This is the polar night jet we discussed in section 2.4.2-c and depicted in Figure 6.02. The polar night jet slows and can even be displaced, which has the effect of displacing the polar vortex region.

    The deposition of easterly momentum into the polar stratosphere and the deceleration of the polar night jet is known as “wave breaking” (see section 4.1.2). It produces the phenomenon of the stratospheric sudden warming (see Chapter 2, section 4.2.2) as warmer middle latitude and even tropical air intrudes into the geographic polar region. This result is a situation that is thermodynamically imbalanced. Wintertime radiational cooling in the polar stratosphere quickly begins.

    3.4.3 Sinking Air and Meridional Overturning
    This cooling of air is accompanied by sinking motions, since colder air is more dense and it sinks. It is this sinking motion that establishes the meridional overturning from equator to pole in the winter hemisphere. That is, the sinking air in the polar region must be balanced by a poleward flow of air into this region. By mass continuity requirements, this air must come from the tropics. Our Brewer-Dobson circulation cell is thus established as tropical air moving poleward to replace the sinking air at the poles is itself replaced by rising air in the tropics (see Figure 6.03).


    I hope that helps.

    With the ClimAstrologists acting as gatekeepers to publication, no one can get a paper published that shows what is happening so it is all in bits and pieces which is a royal pain.

  82. Gail Combs says:

    A C Osborn, thanks.
    I am aware of Clive but haven’t read extensively at his site, just a few of his articles.
    Tim I was completely unaware of so thanks.

    There really is a huge body of science out there but thanks to the […insert series of nasty swear words…] ClimAstrologists, nothing has been done to bring it together into a cohesive theory that is open to testing and criticism. They have done to much of science, and not just atmospheric science, what Lysanko did to Russian biology but they did it to the entire world and not just one country.

    In my opinion they dragged human’s forward progress almost to a halt and for that the whole lot of them, especially those behind the scam, deserve to be tried and then shot!

    If the astroturf nuclear power scare, ozone scare…. and massive irrational regulations had not been imposed from the 1950s on, the entire world, not just the USA and Europe would be a heck of a lot better off.

    Federal Regulations Have Made You 75 Percent Poorer U.S. GDP is just $16 trillion instead of $54 trillion… in the absence of six decades of accumulated regulations—a median household income of $330,000 instead of the $53,000 we get now.
    That article has been removed, not only from the internet but the copy on the Wayback has also been removed… but copies were saved.

    Please note that Americans are the most generous people on earth or were before impoverished and turned towards Marxism (otherwise known as spending other peoples money.) “Americans give twice as much as the next most charitable country, according to a November 2006 comparison done by the Charities Aid Foundation.”

  83. Larry Ledwick says:

    Very interesting Gail. I really appreciate you doing the grunt work to assemble all those sources and flag relevant parts.

    Some interesting observations: as the solar spectrum shifts it moves the energy distribution around, and because of the absorption process mentioned you would literally move where the sun’s energy is deposited in the atmosphere. As UV increases, it would affect a deeper layer of the atmosphere, when it weakens the layer affected would thin and move higher in the atmosphere.

    This same sort of process would change as we shift from summer to winter in a given hemisphere. Mid summer in the northern hemisphere the UV is being deposited in a relatively deep layer of the stratosphere, then as we shift into the fall that layer would get thinner and thinner as the path the UV radiation travels through the atmosphere became less perpendicular to the atmosphere and arrived at a more grazing angle, then in the winter, only the very highest layers of the stratosphere still illuminated by the sun would see any UV at all.

    These effects would create two cycles. One an annual cycle due to the season where the UV radiation changes from depositing its energy in a relatively deep layer in the summer to a progressively thinner higher layer in the winter. A second would modulate the ionosphere absorption layer by any long term changes in the sun’s UV output. Given the shift in UV which is well documented with sunspot activity this would provide the link to changes in climate associated with sunspot counts.

    Total solar energy does not change much with sunspots but where that energy gets deposited in the atmosphere and the oceans would.

    The same effects would occur in the polar ocean as IR intensity changes both with season and solar output.

  84. Gail Combs says:

    Thanks for pointing out the winter/summer depth of the atmosphere angle. This would also apply to changes in axial tilt over the Milancovitch cycle.

    I always thought the TSI point that Leif S. keeps hammering is a red herring. TSI may remain relatively constant but a whole heck of a lot of other things change.

    For example:
    Solar variability and climate change: Geomagnetic aa index and global surface temperature
    E. W. Cliver, V. Boriakoff and J. Feynman


    …In this view the absence of pronounced 11-year temperature fluctuations (related to the unshaded area under the aa curve in Figure 3), is attributed to the damping effect of the thermal inertia of the oceans. Wigley and Raper [1990] have shown that such damping can reduce the impact of even a relatively strong solar cycle with ~0.1% peal-to-peak irrafiancevariation [Willson and hudson, 1991] to a barely detectable temperature signal (~0.02C). Thus it is the slow variation of the underlying solar signal, as revealed by the aa min time history,rather than the 11-year cycle in either aa or sunspots that shows up most strongly in the temperature record.

    The fact that the aa index at solar minimum retains a value proportional to its flanking sunspot maxima, rather than falling to near zero values like the sunspot number, is thought to be a reflection of the interchange of poloidal and toroidal (sunspot) magnetic fields via the solar dynamo… The point we wish to make here is that the aa index provides evidence for a long-term (low-frequency) component of solar variability that persists through sunspot minimum and may therefore affect Earth’s climate…..
    While we hypothesize that the changing aa baseline is somehow related to a long-term irradiance variationon the Sun, there is another possibility and that is that the solar wind itself influences climate…

    Our study suggest that solar variability has contributed significantly to the long-term change of earth’s climate during the past 350 years…

    While acknowledging the importance and threat of such anthropogenic forcing, we are reminded that there is evidence, albeit mixed…, for temperatures comparable to present day values during the interval 900-1250 A.D., well before the industrial age. The later part (1100-1250 A.D.) of this so-called Medieval Warm Period had inferred solar activity comparable to present levels….

    As of this writing it appears that the average aa value of 1997 will be even lower (~16 nT) than that of 1996. Such leveling off or decline of the long-term solar component of climate change will help to disentangle its effects from that of anthropogenic greenhouse warming.

    Our aa-based inference of a fiat or declining secular component of solar irradiance contrasts with the results of a recent analysis of satellite-based irradiance measurements Willson [1997] who found an increase 0.036% for the 1996 solar minimum relative to that of 1986….

  85. pearce m. schaudies says:

    Howdy folks. I wish to thank one and all for the links an brain- candy. Nice holiday gift. The Brewer-Dobson Circulation I need to do again, heh.

    Pearce M. Schaudies,
    Minister of Future

  86. Larry Ledwick says:

    It is just weather but looks like our first good arctic cold front will hit the US later this week with below zero F temps in the Denver Area by Wednesday.


  87. Larry Ledwick says:

    Hmmmmmm a 1500 year cycle of earth rotation — doesn’t that sound familiar?


  88. Andrew Hansen says:

    It would be a huge mistake to sit on our laurels during the Trump administration. We should view the Trump administration as an opportunity to do something. More than ever, we need to organize and educate American on the bad science that supports the global warming initiative.

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