This is just a very short bleat and to some extent lament about future unknowns.
I was pondering “what to post next” and thinking about how the whole Global Warming thing had gone from “New, What-Is-It Shiny Thing!” to “Disappointing abuse for asking rational questions” when I first ran into the Warmer Advocacy sites, to the joy of discovering WUWT (partly brought on by the 10 year anniversary posting…) which lead to doing a bunch of number crunching computer work (a lot on GIStemp), which resulted in this blog…
THEN, just a year or so back having the realization that “It isn’t about the Science” and that the Science was just window dressing on a Political Agenda. That only a fool brings a science knife to a political gun fight… and I started doing some of my first politically oriented postings…
To now with a Trump win and BREXIT and the world seems to have made the right political choices.
Where to now?
All of which leaves me wondering: Where to now?
Is the science still relevant enough to “do more” on it? Is the number crunching model / data analysis really of any remaining value? With the politics likely resolved for 4, perhaps (hope hope) 8 years, what relevance does flogging it have now?
I know, I know, “They” will not go quietly into that good night, so neither ought we…
But still, I’m in a contemplative mood, contemplating what fork to take next, and finding only shadows down the various paths…
Perhaps a wander down “memory lane” with a book about “What is wrong with the temperatures as Global Warming indicator?” that catalogs all the things wrong from thermometers to math to analysis to models?
Perhaps a book about resources and how they do NOT ever run out?
Perhaps just ongoing day by day blogging of “what happened today” even if not so important? (Bringing up an intrusion detection system on a small computer is fun for me, but really not so much for most folks…)
Wait for the “other side” to start their “reactionary response” and react to the reaction?
Frankly, I’d love to just “Declare Victory and go home”, but I’m already AT home! ;-) And somehow I doubt the global cabal sucking down $Billions in Climate Cash will just walk away quietly and fly off to their Swiss Bank Account…
So, in the end, I’m left with: What now? Like that moment at a great party when you notice the punch bowl is 3/4 empty, the band is taking a long break, and the crowd has thinned out a bit. Is it time to think of “what now?”, or just wait until the bowl is refilled and the band comes back from break?…
I’ve looked at doing a Climate Model port to a small cluster (The Average Joe DIY Climate Station), but what’s the point if they are “known to not work” and Trump is busy putting them out of business anyway? Similarly, I could spin a “GIStemp on a chip” for the Raspberry Pi in about 5 hours of work; but who would want it? (I actually ran it once on the Pi as a proof of concept, but that was a couple of years ago so I’d likely need to do a re-port of the newest code). Does any of that matter? In Hillary’s terminology: “At this point, what difference does it make?”…
Kind of like the dog chasing cars and biting at the tires: Once you catch one, what do you do with it? Well, Trump is in, and he’s a skeptic looking for places to cut costs. I suspect “right quick” NASA will be getting back to space issues and NOAA will be looking more at “weather this week” than “unknown catastrophe in some future century”… Teeth are in the tire, now what?
Well, I’m open to suggestions. Just don’t go all worried on me. Not planning to change anything any time soon. Just wondering which oar to pull on the most and what direction is land… and where did I put that little brown jug of grog? 9-)
While Contemplating
Here’s a little mood music for while you all are contemplating.
Dedicated To Madam Hillary, Hillary dear, Are you leaving soon?
Musings from the Chiefio 
I think you are on the right track, the climate nonsense was the trigger for the general awakening that you had gross government corruption merged in with an oppressive globalist/progressive agenda and the “science” was just the camouflage to get the indoctrination structure set up.
I am quite astonished that grown adults still think (are absolutely sure) that their life expectancy will be shortened by 40 years by global warming when you can’t even demonstrate in any rigerous fashion that is exists. Much like the extinction of the polar bear the facts simply do not support the conclusion. Only the mutilated data and bogus models support that sort of conclusion and even that is so out of bounds it is silly, if you even a hint of historical knowledge. It is simply impossible to melt a major fraction of the Greenland ice cap within a human life span (ground bound ice melting being a necessary precondition for catastrophic flooding).
Maybe time to start writing a look back on how their house of cards fell apart. Ironic that it was also triggered by email leaks by a “hacker”.
“What Now”
This.
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump 5h5 hours ago
Just got a call from my friend Bill Ford, Chairman of Ford, who advised me that he will be keeping the Lincoln plant in Kentucky – no Mexico
What now? Qui sait… qui sait … qui sait?
One thing we know, the Gramsci long march through the institutions,
especially education, will continue.
http://invisibleserfscollar.com/false-selling-of-education-terms-as-remedies-obscures-real-function-as-an-accelerant/#comments
Strongarm tactics seem to be the new MO of the paranoid climate crowd at COP22 in Marrakech when faced with dissenters.
The GWPF quotes Rupert Darwall:
Update: After filing the following report this morning from this year’s session of the U.N.’s annual climate meeting, the author went to attend the day’s “conference of the parties” as he had been doing all week, only to be arrested by armed U.N. police and detained for trying to gain entry with a blocked pass. His phone was confiscated and examined, and he was asked whom he had been calling.
http://www.thegwpf.com/rupert-darwall-climate-movement-faces-worst-crisis-in-its-existence/
EM – since the traditional climate models are based on curve-fitting, they can be adjusted to fit what data is fed into them to give a good fit but are obviously useless at prediction since they all disagree with each other. It seems to me that an array processor could be used to advantage here, with each sub-processor handling its own small volume of atmosphere and reacting to the real inputs from sunlight, evaporation (if at ground level) and the inputs from the neighbouring cells as well as the effects of rotation. It also seems likely that the spice engine could be useful as a basis – making the timesteps smaller in cases where things are quickly changing. The majority of the cells would have pretty simple maths, and work from first principles rather than fitting curves. We do after all have equations to tell us what happens as moist air rises, though maybe the chaotic mixing of air masses would need to be approximated somewhat. The model of the ground level would be most complex, with the land-type and moisture levels needing to be taken into account to calculate evaporation rates. We’d also need to take into account ocean currents and temperatures.
It does seem that such a model from first principles is overdue. Once built, though, and tested against known starting data to see if it can predict general climate (and even short-term weather), the effects of a change in TSI could be tested, as could a spectral change.
This is a pretty big task, but it does have a lot of parallelism so would be suited for a nest of Pis or similar (or that multi-GPU beast). Once above ground-level, the calculations should be pretty simple with the biggest problem in using spherical coordinates and thus variable size of cell or overlapping borders. Mountains also cause a bit of a headache….
Maybe better than a tyre to get your teeth into.
First of all practically every sceptic forum should write to Donald and offer any assistance they can to re-inforce his own scepticism about the current “Science”.
It may be totally ignored, but at least it is worth trying.
The strange thing is that there has been no actual kickback from the sceptics on a mass basis, other than Morano’s film and their visiting the conferences.
We do not have the money, but maybe it needs to be done via less normal means, like mass emailings or twitter account hacking to get the messages out there.
Because apart from a few Reporters the MSM is not going to stop with the outright lies and propaganda to scare the populace to death to justify the globalist’s agenda.
@E.M.
You might find it amusing to go up against Stephen Hawking. He recently came out with the claim that humankind will be extinct in about a thousand years due to artificial intelligence, a lack of resources, and global warming. I’d say you’ve spent a bit more time looking around in the CAGW and Malthusian weeds than has Hawking.
What next? Doing more with less. As others have pointed out, the gravy train is drying up. The Alarmists will not go away. But they will have to learn how to do more with less. And perhaps, that will increase the quality of the work. But that is not a given.
More with less.
While looking for something else (that I just posted) I saw this on featured stories @ Alex Jones. (It still bothers me that I have to go to a fringe site to find sane news coverage…. Yeah I know Alex Jones and sane do not seem to belong in the same sentence.)
Climate Report to UN: Trump right, UN wrong – Skeptics Deliver Consensus Busting ‘State of the Climate Report’ to UN Summit
By JOVE, I think he’s GOT IT! (He featured an article written by Marc Morano of Climate Depot.)
Hi Chief. Greetings from the Big Mango (BKK). Here’s a new project: I
read an article today on WaPo about the hot arctic. In my collection of paleo climate pdf’s several say the interglacials have a warm pulse near the end, a few meters sea rise, and glacial have started with higher CO2 levels. So I believe the ‘Global economy is facing a serious ‘Double Tap’ in the near future. Regardless of Trump, heh.
1. Looks like 2020 will be the start of a Dalton type cold snap lasting 30 – 170 yrs. as we slide towards glacial max.
Several blogs note artic warming, but attribute to AGW. I believe the artic warming to ice- free may be to supply gigatons of moisture to the next Laurentide ice sheet. This old story got me thinking about steps necessary for glacial inception …
http://harpers.org/archive/1958/09/the-coming-ice-age/
If one considers obliquity increasing past 23.5 deg as an interglacial onset and falling past the end, our Holocene ended 700 ya, with duration about 17.5 ky. The Younger Dryas and other extremes cut down the normal early warm part.
While I’m not a card- carrying climate scientist, I am a curious electrical engineer with a background in reliability and statistics, and I have read several hundred pdf’s on paleo and modern climate.
I have read recently on several climate blogs that interglacials don’t last past 23.5 degrees of obliquity. The wiki says we are now about 23.4371, so I project back to 23.5 and it occurred during the series of little ice ages – Wolf, Sporer, Maunder, and Dalton. The average time between start date is 170 years, a barycentric precession Cycle identified by VP Melnikov in 2008. This may be just a coincidence but could give more weight to the claim that the Holocene interglacial ended in 1300 AD.
Also with the projected Grand solar minimum for cycle 25 and 26, starting in 2020, possibly a new Dalton – LIA, will cause a lot of global hardship for about 30 yrs with colder winters and unusual wet / dry spells. However, the usual global slope going in to glacial is 1 deg C per 1000 yrs. People will adjust, migrate, or starve.
And if that’s not enough,
2. in 2013 Q4 the oil majors made big cuts in searching an developing new fields. They have also lied about the ‘proven’ reserves since 1980. And now EROEI is below 10. So the quantity extracted will be falling rapidly after 2020.
For shocks this big, I believe it’s better to risk a Type I error than Type II.
Keep calm, take your meds, and carry on. If possible move to a small town less than 50k people, 100 mi. from coast, 400 mi. from nuclear power plant. Make friends with neighbors, share. Buy quality hand tools, not gold.
This could be another ‘Darwin Squeeze’. I believe this possibility should be discussed more widely in case somebody might choose to move inland early and avoid the rush, heh. Otherwise historians in 5000 yrs will write, ‘Few scientists realized the Holocene ended in 1300 AD, since they hadn’t experienced one before.’
Pearce M. Schaudies.
Minister of Future
Speaking of the information wars, and that is what the Climate Wars were about;
Again by Alex Jones.
Quantcast has blacklisted Infowars from its top trafficked websites as the establishment’s attempt to silence opposing voices by declaring conservative outlets
And Twitter User Replaces Word ‘White’ With ‘Black,’ Gets Banned “A person wrote the same comment on two different accounts with only two words changed, then reported each for abusive behavior”
I saw the same in a video by Mike Cernovich: Twitter Bans Coming On Strong – Now What?
Sorry it is a bit long and rambling.
Mike also says it is in the technical language of the contract but he has his lawsuit prepped and ready to go if they step beyond the contract. (Mike is a lawyer.)
The suggestion is an alternate: https://gab.ai/
It is interesting that some of the corporations are becoming unhinged.
BREAKING : Pepsi STOCK Plummets After CEO Tells Trump Supporters to “Take Their Business Elsewhere”
Now the lying media is trying to spin the story that it is the Trump supporters who are Unhinged…
Just look at the first page of google.
Trump supporters call to boycott Pepsi over comments the CEO never made — CNNMoney
Fake news spurs Trump backers to boycott PepsiCo — CBS News
Why some Donald Trump supporters are taking aim at Pepsi – The Washington Post.
Pepsi CEO Indra Nooyi never told supporters of Donald Trump to “take their business elsewhere,” implicitly or explicitly —- SNOPES
There is a name for this type of behavior. It is called Gaslighting. Trying to make a person think the truth is not the truth as it keeps morphing and eventually enough of it makes you doubt your sanity. This can leads to mental problems.
It is interesting to see that resources haven’t yet run out (with the exception of DoDo down to which there is no substitute). The internal combustion engine looks to hang around for a long time. I start to wonder about abiotic oil as we hear about all these new finds. The hydrocarbons seem so deep to be from dead dinosaurs.
A C Osborn says: “First of all practically every sceptic forum should write to Donald and offer any assistance they can to re-inforce his own scepticism about the current “Science”.
It may be totally ignored, but at least it is worth trying…..”
Tony Heller of http://realclimatescience.com has already met with the Trump EPA team.
We can either funnel info via Tony, the Competitive Enterprise Institute or contact the Trump Transition team direct:
https://www.greatagain.gov
Just in case you did not know:
Myron Ebell is director of the Center for Energy and Environment at the Competitive Enterprise Institute and chairs the Cooler Heads Coalition
https://cei.org/expert/myron-ebell
(For me, I am getting a secure connection failure notice for https://cei.org/ )
Ralph B, They are finding abiotic hydrocarbons on other planets.
NASA: Titan’s Surface Organics Surpass Oil Reserves on Earth
@Simon, if they really want to start from first principles, then I would say that we need to start with the kinetic theory of gases. take into account every chemical interaction and refine the radiative transfer (SB is based on an ‘imaginary and idealized’ system based on radiation from a surface. Does a gas have a surface? What kind is it?). Then take into account that empirical systems don’t necessarily act the same way systems with fewer restraints may act. After all of that, a proper error analysis and propagation needs to be done, complete with as much verification and validation as possible.
While accuracy, precision and resolution overlap, they’re not all the same things. Oh yeah, please quite misusing statistics. Chance is not a thing, chance is a description of actual and potential influences that include much lack of specific knowledge.
@Simon:
Interesting idea. Roll your own with real physics…
For code with small tight loops (like for I=1 to 64; do; temp[I]=(temp[I]+0.03(temp [I-1]) the GPU systems work well, for highly variable things with few tight loops, the CISC works better. My sense of it is CUDA Cores in a GPU would work well for a phys model.
There are about 300? cores per processor board, so a 9000 grid model would work best with about 9000/300= 30 boards. Call it $300 each with minimal support stuff (power supply but not gold plated cases and racks). I make that about $9000. Double that for shipped, installed and Ooops! issues, or about $18k. Attainable by almost anyone with a budget… Devo can go on 1/10 that and first try on about $600. That’s for one TeraFLOP https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2015/12/08/personal-teraflop-climate-simulator-for-how-much/
Speed a bit hard to guess, but we’re talking TeraFLOPS hardware, but the climate model ought not need it at that granularity… one TF to start, 3 to assure cluster works, then 30 TF to run.
Ought to work…
As an Add on on the PepsiCo — Trump issue: https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/11/13/massive-stewardship-fail-pepsico-ceo-tells-trump-supporters-to-take-their-business-elsewhere/
E.M. it’s hard to get around the logic and clarity of this post you did back in 2012.
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/12/12/tropopause-rules/
That and Abdussamatov’s papers, I’ve often used it a as references on other blogs when a foolish AGW twerp decides CO2 somehow ‘warms’ the atmosphere.
Also “Packetsled” CEO, Matt Harrigan makes threats against Trump. Tech CEO resigns after threatening to kill Trump
Packetsled is internet security company.
The crazys are really climbing out of the woodwork. That must mean Trump really is a Change Agent.
@H.R.:
There is an unfortunate tendency for folks who reach the pinacle in a tightly focused field to pontificate in areas where they know little. The greater the focused accomplishment, the worse the rest (by necessity as they were so highly focused to get yhat recognition).
Having spent about 1/2 century working day and night to be a Renaissance Generalist, I can guarantee it leaves no time for that level or rarified study. So the Celebrity Pontifier just adopts the most currently popular belef set and goes on stage to be lauded…
But taking that on isn’t a matter of debating the Pontif. That doesn’t happen. They just eventually fade out with the currency of the topic.
@Pearce:
Interesting method. I arrived at 2016 to 2018 onset by another means (in a couple of postings). There’s also one looks at prior regional climate. Turns out Florida srays warm and wet during a glacial. Heat from the Gulf backs up there as the Gulf Stream slows down…
BTW, IMHO, the LIA was a 1/2 Bond Event and this one will be the full deal… (another posting is on that).
Yes, I’m working on a move to Florida… been there more than here for a half dozen years now… but time to move the rest of the kit. Biggest issue for me, IMHO, is that California goes into a big drought when things get cold… During TLIA there was spectacular drought that makes the current one look like nothing, IIRC. So staying in California “has issues” unless a lot more desalination is done.
BTW, food is easily handled via vertical farming, so no worries.
@Ralph B.:
I’ve spent years on resource economics. We never run out. We CAN NEVER run out. Because everthing is a resource and more stuff lands on the planet each year than leaves…
Per hydrocarbons: We can make all we want. Limestone and water and heat near metal based catalyts, collect H2 and CO2, shift to producer gas, polymerize. FT is the best known, but there are several paths. We have functionally infinite energy from seawater U, so fuel is just a great chemical battery in the end game. BTW, limestone and water subduct into very hot zones with zeolite like cataltst rocks all over the planet. “Oddly” major oil producers are near subduction locations…
For central USA the geology is more complicated. It was a shallow inland sea. Lots of algae sinking into anoxic swamps. Giant mountans eroded to cover it. Wait, you get oil. IFF the swamp had giant ferns, you get coal. But that can’t explain oil offshore Brazil, or in hard rocks in Russia…
@Gail:
You can tell Trump us over the target by the shouting, crying, screaming, cursing, and flack…
@Tom0mason:
Thanks! I’m fond of that one too 8-)
Here’s Garrison on Gaslighting:
https://grrrgraphics.wordpress.com/2016/11/06/hillarys-gas-lighting-new-ben-garrison-cartoon/
and his illustration:
which reminds me of Robert Louis Stevenson’s poem “The Lamplighter” (especially as
illustrated by Thomas Kincaid) (OK, OK, I like Deplorable Art). (I also like Kincaide’s
lamp better than the one fueled by Hildebeast :) Goodnes knows, she has enough hot air, though).
(My mum told me about the lamplighters in London that she saw as a child in the 1920s)
Stevenson, Robert Louis (1850–1894). A Child’s Garden of Verses and Underwoods. 1913.
The Lamplighter
MY tea is nearly ready and the sun has left the sky;
It’s time to take the window to see Leerie going by;
For every night at teatime and before you take your seat,
With lantern and with ladder he comes posting up the street.
Now Tom would be a driver and Maria go to sea,
And my papa’s a banker and as rich as he can be;
But I, when I am stronger and can choose what I’m to do,
O Leerie, I’ll go round at night and light the lamps with you!
For we are very lucky, with a lamp before the door,
And Leerie stops to light it as he lights so many more;
And O! before you hurry by with ladder and with light;
O Leerie, see a little child and nod to him to-night!
Not to mention thermal-depolymerization of trash back to oil. It was proven economically viable at about $90 a bbl, all you need is heat water and pressure and complex hydrocarbons break down into basically crude oil.
It got crushed intentionally by people with other agendas (renewable energy folks) and the economic down turn in 2008. The process is proven and waiting in the wings for economics to make it commercially viable. With modern Fracking that may be some years now.
In a boycott situation or other unnatural shortage or once patents expire it could be brought on line fairly quickly.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_depolymerization
Interesting article in the Telegraph.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/18/so-long-to-the-cheats-and-liars-of-so-called-truth-politics-brin/
Sums up the UK rather well.
re: @Ralph B: abiotic oil
Search for Thomas Gold’s two books and read about it if you are interested:(1) The Deep Hot Biosphere: The Myth of Fossil Fuels, (2) Power From the Earth: Deep Earth Gas – Energy for the Future (never published in America; I got my copy in London, a great book published in 1987).
One point: The radius of the earth is 4,000 miles. The crust ranges in thickness from 10 miles (under ocean) to 40 miles at thickest of continental crust. Stated another way the crust varies from 0.3 percent to 1 percent of the radius of the earth. This means that greater than 99% below the surface of the earth is true Terra Incognito: no experimental data, no samples, only indirect seismic data and models.
Dan Kurt
My favorite is The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894
My favorite socialist, Richard Courtney who is found on WUWT, worked on conversion of coal to petrol IIRC. It is a state secret in the UK.
Once you switch to nuclear everything becomes a lot easier. For one thing all that cooling water can be used to heat vertical greenhouses. Extracting pure water becomes possible (see Israel) and you can then start extracting various minerals and even mine the sea floor. With a bit more effort we can mine the moon and close planets given enough energy. Cheap, plentiful energy is the key which is why the Globalists are so intent on controlling it.
The whole ‘running out’ meme is nothing but crap used to control people AND to continue moving wealth to the 1%.
Perhaps the thing I resent most is the killing of the dreams we had in the 1960s and 1970s when mankind was reaching for the stars. Instead, now we have muslim outreach. Out reach towards a fossilized culture stuck in 700 AD.
@Larry Ledwick:
“It is simply impossible to melt a major fraction of the Greenland ice cap within a human life span (ground bound ice melting being a necessary precondition for catastrophic flooding).”
According to the IPCC (AR5) the global ice is melting at a rate of 300 Giga-tonnes per year. That sounds pretty scary unless you realize that the global ice inventory is 30,000,000 Giga-tonnes. Thus at the present rate it will take 10,000 years to melt it all!
However as our leader points out…………..this is about politics and nobody gives a fig about science.
@ G. Combs:
“…Perhaps the thing I resent most is the killing of the dreams we had in the 1960s and 1970s when mankind was reaching for the stars. Instead, now we have muslim outreach. Out reach towards a fossilized culture stuck in 700 AD.”
With that kind of outreach, you draw back a stub!
I remember those dreams! It felt like moving from roller skates…to a bicycle…to a VW Beetle…to one of those big V-8’s on a super highway! It felt like the sky was the limit. Good times!
Then they sold us that lie that oil was running out and created long lines at the pump and drove up the cost of fuel. Really cranked it up. People even stopped putting Christmas lights on their houses. So sad.
I kind of think the reality is that there is SO MUCH oil in the ground that they’re afraid every country will be able to produce what they need. It could become as cheap as (cheaper than?) water. Those “huddled masses yearning to breathe free” might actually catch a break. They can’t let that happen.
It’s getting S-O-O-O OLD. They’ve gotta keep drumming up shortages…creating discord between brothers…trying to light the powder keg of war…or at least destroy the USA (tearing it apart by encouraging secession would work for them, I’m sure).
As I look back on the role of media in our history, I can’t help but wonder how much of their behavior was actually dictated by the gummint. If the folks in power really wanted to rein them in, I’m sure they have their ways. I’ve decided they don’t really want to rein them in. And the MSM like nothing better than a big blow-up. The bigger and uglier, the better for their purposes. I believe that’s why Donald Trump came out with those outrageous comments like he did. He knew it would keep the cameras on him. If he had played the part of a reasonable man, the media would have either ignored him and focused on Hillary, or they would have created mud to throw on him. He knew the game the media were playing, and used it for his advantage. If he and my granddad had known each other, I’m sure they would have exchanged knowing winks.
@Gail Combs:
“Once you switch to nuclear everything becomes a lot easier.”
How true! Each time we run out of an energy source something better comes along. We ran out of whale oil for lighting our houses but found kerosene that was much more cheaper and more effective.
We will eventually run out of cheap “fossil fuels” but it won’t matter because nuclear (fission) fuel is several million times more effective (pound for pound) and we have enough proven reserves to run our industrial civilization for tens of thousands of years.
By the time fission fuels run out we will have mastered nuclear fusion with essentially unlimited reserves.
E. M. My personal vote is for you to do a book on the planet’s resources. IMV you excell here, and through skeptic websites have an international audience.
Quick question for anyone. I am looking for a good critical book detailing the Black Lives Matter movement. Any suggestions appreciated.
The past is completed and the future unknown, sometimes the best thing to do is enjoy the present and think about what you enjoy doing rather then what others expect.
GOD doesn’t always give us what we think we want., but often gives us what we need. Often when we least expect it.
Enjoy the Holiday Season and let the New Year begin.
We live in interesting times. ..pg
Not sure there is a book out on Black Lives matter but there since it is a relatively new incarnation of leftists power politics through street protests. One of the few who is willing to point out the contradictions in the BLM movement is David Horowitz, who has a unique perspective. He grew up among Marxists and Communists and knows their strategies and thinking from that first person experience. He had an awakening in the 1960’s when he realized they really did not care in the slightest how many people got hurt as a result of their protests, incitement to bombings and terrorism etc. Ever since that he has been dedicated to pulling the covers off the hidden networks and relationships of those subversive elements hidden in plain sight behind politically correct names which usually are in direct contrast to their real agenda.
http://www.horowitzfreedomcenter.org/frontpage_it_s_time_to_designate_black_lives_matter_a_terrorist_organization
http://www.horowitzfreedomcenter.tv/2016/08/31/black-lives-matter-kills-people/
http://www.truthrevolt.org/news/leftist-hate-site-attacks-cant-refute-david-horowitz-black-lives-matter
Another item here points out what is obvious to those of us old enough to remember the Black Panthers during the ’60’s. BLM is just a modern version of the same race based hate group, it is literally a black version of the KKK.
http://www.westernfreepress.com/2015/09/01/racism-power-and-control/
Thanks Larry, yes, I am a great fan of David Horowitz; a brilliant academic turning his writing skill and intelligence to very consructive thought.
Concerning the BLM group I heard a book at been written, but perhaps not yet.
Larry, your links led to two books, “Black Lies Matter” written by a black man, and “The War on Cops, by a woman.
Thanks again.
Power Grab,
In 1979 I met a lady in her late 80s who had gone from the horse and buggy era to a man on the moon! Think about that.
SO what have we seen in my life time? (I am in my mid 60s) we have gone from an era of Christian Enlightenment, progress, hope and freedom to an era where Christianity is being supplanted by a barbaric religion in the EU with the blessings of it’s leaders. Where Christian Enlightenment is being driven out of the USA. Where poverty, criminality, drugs and infantile behavior is DELIBERATELY encouraged by the government in the USA and Canada while Christian ethics is trashed. Our debt free midsize American companies — Companies where an employee was treated as a member of the ‘family’ to be grown within the company — have been raided for the wealth they built up, ripped apart, buried and replaced by multinationals where humans are treated as replaceable cogs. Used until age 40 to 45 and then tossed out and replaced by ‘cheaper’ workers. The quality of our products after peaking in the late 70s has taken a nosedive as a result.
And where did all that built-up wealth go that used to be reinvested in research?
More recently the IMF reported where that wealth went.
So, since the mid 1970s, our former Christian society, instead of reinvesting our collective wealth in advancement has consolidated that wealth and used it instead to wage wars with the goal of enslaving the entire world under a giant socialist techno-bureaucracy (aka Global Governance)
Unfortunately the Elite learned their lesson during the American and French Revolutions when the emerging middle class overturned 1,000 years of a two class serf-aristo system . They have decided Islam produces much much better slaves/serfs when compared to Christianity with its belief of Man created in the image of God and God Given Rights.
I am an agnostic BTW, but I agree with Stefan Molyneaux.
This is an interesting and timely article. This Is How Steve Bannon Sees The Entire World
Towards the middle of the page is a lot about the banks and the 2008 bank bailout.
The rants in the comments by Stefanie Iris Weiss show just how irrational those on the left can be.
Here is an example:
I do like this comeback:
The left now tossing tantrums seems to forget that…
Power Grab says: “…As I look back on the role of media in our history, I can’t help but wonder how much of their behavior was actually dictated by the gummint….”
The MSM was captured by the banker/military-industrial complex in 1915 J.P. Morgan Interests Buy 25 of America’s Leading Newspapers and Insert Editors – U.S. Congressional Record February 9, 1917 Then look up Operation Mockingbird.
The Fed was responsible for the overthrow of the Russian government in 1917 and they have been overthrowing governments ever since. Congressman McFadden’s Speeches on The Federal Reserve: An Astounding Exposure 1934 McFadden was driven out of Congress and when he would not shut up he was assassinated.
For a book on Black Lives Matters try Hating Whitey and Other Progressive Causes by David Horowitz
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/953137.Hating_Whitey
In the mean time, a paper proclaims:
Didn’t know where to put this. Lot’s of fun:
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/11/epic-tucker-carlson-destroys-lib-hack-called-jeff-sessions-racist-video/
…it was a long time ago, but the leaked “harry read me” comments as he is trying to fix a climate model are amusing….
@Larry,
You’re correct. I was a part of a NSF funded study of pyrolysis oil from tree sized weeds in 1977. Tree farming has been a thing here for nearly 60 years. In-situ Fischer-Tropsch/water shift coal to oil is already a thing, too. Carbonates, water, heat, pressure and anything ‘organic’ (substituted hydrocarbon based fuel cell living things) will do nicely. I say some of the central US features are a combination of tectonic plate business and impactors.
Here is Bill Whittle’s two cents on BLM:
Tony Heller’s Presentation In The Australian Parliament
And while we are at it an interesting Stefan Molyneux and G. Edward Griffin video. Griffin mentions a meeting/conference with Dr Happer, Dr Ball and Lord Monckton (some where around 30 minute mark. I can’t get it to replay darn it!)
I was aware of the Reid Supreme Court saying the Constitution is supreme over any treaty but Griffin mentioned a new decision making treaties supreme over the Constitution.
A bit of research with a lot of interesting points
http://www.heritage.org/constitution/#!/articles/2/essays/90/treaty-clause
Seems a president maybe able to cancel a treaty….
The latest move by the globalist progressives is trying to tell us we have no choice but to abide by ALL the treaties and agreements signed by presidents.
I remember reading the Dulles brothers were trying to promote the idea that a treaty is higher than the Constitution but if a treaty is treated the same as US law it would be just as subject to the Constitution as US law is.
A look at a president withdrawing from a treaty.
http://rooseveltforward.org/how-trump-could-pull-out-treaties-and-what-it-would-mean/
GallopingCamel,
Unless you have a better idea how about suggesting Robin Eubanks of http://invisibleserfscollar.com for a position in the Department of Education.
https://www.greatagain.gov/
If you think it is a good idea please forward his name to Sundance @ https://theconservativetreehouse.com/e-mail-request-guidelines/
Sundance seems to have contacts with the Trump team and if he does not know the website he might be interested in featuring Robin.
(I still can not contact theTreeHouse GRRrrrrr…)
And yes I will be forwarding Robin’s name. I figure if a lot of us do it, he will get a better chance.
@Gail Combs,
I am troubled by Robin Eubanks. He is one of the last people I would want making education policy in the USA.
There is a rumor that Larry Arne is being considered for secretary of education. His understanding of the Constitution is so complete that I would expect him to dismantle the K-12 education hierarchy starting in Washington so that the control of our schools would be in the local community as Donald Trump mentions on page xiii of the preface of the book he published in August 2015 (Crippled America).
Robin is a she. And what is the problem with her? Moreover, why?
@Jeff,
I am color blind and gender blind. My problem with Robin Eubanks is her misrepresentation of what Trump said on the campaign trail and what is written in his book (Crippled America).
Trump says he will close or “Curb” the federal Department of Education and return the control of our schools to the local community. That is what I have been working on for the last 23 years. I helped create eight locally controlled charter schools until the Educrats fought back by imposing “Common Core”. Here are links to two of them:
http://www.gallopingcamel.info/woods.html
http://www.gallopingcamel.info/carter.html
Donald Trump has pledged to end Common Core and I will fight tooth and nail to ensure its demise. Common Core is just the latest in a long string of “Top Down” progressive education disasters. If Trump dismantles the education hierarchy it won’t be possible for a few activists to impose their ideas on the entire nation:
http://www.gallopingcamel.info/docs/BadIdeas.doc
http://www.gallopingcamel.info/docs/EdReform.doc
You could rubbish the recent claims about volcanoes:
Climate change is hindering the planet-cooling properties of Earth’s volcanoes
http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/climate-change-is-hindering-the-planetcooling-properties-of-earths-volcanoes/news-story/8a6d1cb9c1074bbeb24132ea19038aae
You’ve inspired me to write a number of Volcano posts over the years:
http://lovefreedomtruth.com/tag/volcanoes/
They are based on your work, so will not expand your knowledge. I was doing the PR thing you disdain ;)
I’ve learned a lot from your site and been entertained while doing so. Thank you and your commentators for that. I look forward to learning about whatever you focus on next.
Cheers
Rob
EM
How about a project to write a piece of legislation that would ensure fair elections with no cheating for any state participating in a national election, such as House, Senate, and President? If we had a Rep who was interested in sponsorship and some guidance from certain Supervisors of Elections, perhaps a solid outline could go a long way to getting something produced. Lots of smart folks read your blog and a group of motivated/interested parties could collaborate. Imagine…
@Glenn999
Whoa! That’s a toughie. 1st, fraud is already against the law. 2nd, the states control the elections and some even leave the hardware choices up to the county boards of elections.
But just making sure that the physical voting system has airtight integrity is a very interesting problem.
I do like the old Eastern Bloc pictures of a wooden box with a slot surrounded by armed men, of course they were there to make sure you voted correctly, comrade ;o), but then we’re back to the problem of who counts the votes. Paper ballots are foolproof, but collecting and tabulating them honestly is a tough nut to crack.
EPA Chief Contemplates “Paralysis” From Donald Trump Administration…
It is so nice to know others outside our echo chamber ‘get it’ Especially in a blog as big as the ConservativeTreeHouse who routinely has more than 300 comments.
EPA intentional release of Gold King Mine and polluting everything down stream all the way to California. The Animas joins the Colorado river and eventually flows to California.
Why in heck were they digging a hole at the bottom of a dam!
Yes, It is time to shut down the EPA.
Perhaps Donald Trump’s most memorable line in March 2016 speech at the AIPAC conference was in regards to the United Nations.
Nice simple graphic on global temperatures from twitter, retweet from gab.ai
gab.ai/SmythRadio Retweeted
David Clarkson @OldDaveClarkson Nov 23
@SteveSGoddard I can’t get one believer in this to explain to me how Earth got so warm during Egyptian times and Roman times etc
Larry,
I really like that graph.
These are the ones I like to post:
H/T Jo Nova
…………..
There had been a very intense debate in Quaternary Science regarding which of the most recent interglacials is the best analogue for the present Holocene. Lisiecki and Raymo, (2005) essentially quashed the Berger and Loutre’s 2002 modeling and no one has come forward with anything supporting an extended Holocene since then. NASA/NOAA of course use Berger’s computer modeling and ignore Lisiecki and Raymo empirical data.
Lisiecki and Raymo (Paleooceanography, 2005) produced an exhaustive analysis of 57 globally distributed deep ocean cores reaching back about 5 million years.
Lisiecki and Raymo’s conclusion?
Current value – insolation = 479W m−2 (from that paper)
MIS 7e – insolation = 463 W m−2,
MIS 11c – insolation = 466 W m−2,
MIS 13a – insolation = 500 W m−2,
MIS 15a – insolation = 480 W m−2,
MIS 17 – insolation = 477 W m−2
(Changes near the north polar area, about 65 degrees North, are considered important due to the great amount of land. Land masses respond to temperature change more quickly than oceans.)
Dr. Alley has shown the climate transitions abruptly within years to decades. For example the Wisconsin Glaciation to Holocene transition was less than three years!
Onset of the Little Ice Age was right about when the Holocene reached a half precession cycle old. However we had the Modern Grand Solar Minimum now ending. SEE – A History of Solar Activity over Millennia So we are not out of the woods by a long shot. The Milankovitch Cycle low point will continue for 65 thousand years according to Lisiecki and Raymo. Yet these idiots in DC want to strip the earth of the CO2 security blanket that might be keeping us out of the next ice age. And to add insult to injury you can add the other papers showing C3 plants (99% of the plant species) were undergoing CO2 starvation when the earth was in the last glaciation.
….
Lets put this another way. For glacial inception, the summer solstice insulation minimum during the Holocene analog, MIS-11, was 489 Watt/m2 @65N and in 2005 it was 474 Watt/m2 (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005).
This means the earth need an ADDITIONAL 15 Watt/m2 to get to the insolation minimum in MIS-11. I am not familiar with any CO2 estimates which correlate with a 15 Watt/m2 rise in atmospheric forcing. (It takes about 5 Watts per square meter to raise the worlds temperature from 15°C to 16°C. )
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Schimel, 1996] estimated that the change solar forcing between 1850 and 1990 was only 0.3 W/m 2 at the top of the atmosphere vs. 1.5 W/m 2 for forcing anthropogenic CO2 forcing [cf., Reid, 1997]. Therefore to prevent glacial inception using anthropogenic CO2 forcing, we are still off by a factor of ten….
…………
Then you can Look at glacial inception using NOAA’s numbers (Berger) @ 60N not 65N
(www1DOT)ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate_forcing/orbital_variations/berger_insolation/insol91.jun
Holocene peak insolation: 523 Wm-2
……………………………………………..decreased = 47 Wm-2
NOW (modern Warm Period) 476 Wm-2
…………………………………………….. difference = 12 Wm-2
Depth of the last ice age – around 464 Wm−2
11,000 years ago…………… 523.16 Wm-2 peak insolation
Wisconsin Ice age- Holocene transition
12,000 years ago…………… 522.50 Wm-2
So once the Earth flips into the Ice Box mode there is no going back and the earth will be bumping along right in the transition zone for thousands of years. Therefore given this period in the earth’s cycles there is ZERO downside to increasing CO2 even if it does cause warming. All additional CO2 can do is feed plants and possibly keep us out of the next glaciation.
I have yet to see anyone capable of refuting that. They might disagree on the double precession cycle but they can not get around the major decrease in sunlight at 65N.
Holy Hoodwink Batman!
Natural News was on the Global Warming bandwagon. Seems he has discovered Tony Heller. AND better yet it is one of his more popular posts.
June 23, 2014 http://www.naturalnews.com/045695_global_warming_fabricated_data_scientific_fraud.html
Chefio, one thing that you could revisit is Earthquake activity, we seem to be getting quite a lot of it at the moment.
@Gail,
More CO2 is a wonderful thing for plants and if we manage to achieve 1,000 ppm there may even be a measurable increase in global temperature but I doubt if it will delay the next ice age significantly in spite of wild speculation by David Archer and others:
Click to access archer.2005.trigger.pdf
P.G. I would like to see 1,500 ppm of CO2. And no it will not delay the next ice age. I put that in for the luke-warmers/believers because even if you think CO2 causes warming it isn’t enough to over come a 10% reduction in the sun’s energy at 65N.
The reason for 1500 ppm is because as the earth gets colder and the cold oceans suck up CO2 there will be enough left for vegetation to thrive instead of being starved for CO2. also in higher CO2 plants need less water and given a dry glaciation that is a GOOD THING.
A sleepy sun plus major volcanic action and you could flip the earth into the cold phase. If Dr Brown @ Duke is to be believed at this point in time the climate is bi-stable with the cold phase more stable/likely than the warm phase.
@Gail; The one factor not considered is density altitude. The amount of atmosphere and therefore surface pressure is not stable. Any change in density altitude also changes the temperature, snow line and evaporation rate. Solar radiation, solar wind, Volcanic activity, meteor activity and ocean heating or cooling can change the amount of atmosphere that clings to a planet. We know that the average pan evaporation rate has decreased over the last 200 years, so this would indicate the amount and surface pressure of the atmosphere has risen, average surface temperature has increased as well. Changes in orbital mechanics will change subsurface tidal effects that result in changes in volcanic activities as well as tectonic plate movements and oceanic heating. Short term decreases in solar heating due to volcanic dust is replaced by long term surface warming due to increased atmospheric density…pg
Hi Chief #2. Greetings from the Big Mango (BKK). Here’s another new project: Where does the moisture come from for the Laurentide and Fenoscandian ice sheets? That is a mammoth in the kitchen, heh.
If one considers obliquity increasing past 23.5 deg as an interglacial onset and falling past 23.5 the end, our Holocene ended 700 ya, with duration about 17.5 ky. The Younger Dryas and other extremes cut down the normal early warm part. The global temperature has been trending down about 1 C per thousand years, similar to past glacial inceptions, for more than 5000 yrs.
I believe the summer insolation max in the SH drives atmospheric moisture and warm currents into NH, where at that time insolation is in a min phase. This lasts about 5000 yrs, then reverses. Then a sloppy polar vortex causes heavy snow in a band from 60 to 70 no. lat. The following 5000 yrs of NH max insolation can’t melt it, and Voila! Bigly ice sheet.
What do think?
Pearce M. Schaudies,
Minister of Future
Pearce,
Eons ago in one of my geology courses, my prof. mentioned it was not cold that caused an ice age but a major increase in SNOW such that mild summers could not melt it. Tony Heller/Steven Goddard has brought up the fact that the edges of the Laurentide Ice Sheet follow the same contours as the meridonal jet stream aka Polar Vortex. Shocking Polar Vortex From 20,000 Years Ago
As the sun has gone sleepy the jet stream has gone from zonal to meridonal. This provides a much longer ‘line’ where tropical moisture laden air can clash with cold arctic air and produce major blizzards.
For example:
11/21/2014 – Buffalo NY “…the historic storm that dumped more than 7 feet (2.13 m) of snow on the area in only three days. Buffalo normally gets around 8 feet of snow during an entire winter season….”
12/19/2014 – Japan “…Japan’s NHK news network reported that, as of the 18th, Niigata Prefecture Tsunan had snow height of 207 cm (6 ft – 8 inches), Nagano Nozawaonsen had 183 cm (6 ft) of snow, Gunma Minakami had 171 cm (5′-7″) of snow, etc…. These snowfall levels are far greater than in previous years….”
2/3/2014 Record snowfall (almost 7 ft) in northern Iran – In Savadkouh, 40 to 50 houses crushed…
21 August 2014 “…Due to the unprecedented quantity of snow that fell between December of last year and March of this year, almost 300 “snow patches” remain in Highland mountains despite the warm weather the region has enjoyed this summer….”
And the next winter… August 27, 2015 — Massive Increase in Scottish Snow Patches or Névé. These are the beginnings of glaciers if they continue to remain and further compact. Scotland was also under glaciation during the Wisconsin Ice age.
Italy captured the world’s one day snow fall record in March of 2015 TWICE.
240cm (7.84 ft) in Pescocostanzo
256cm (8.34 ft) of snow Capracotta
10 feet (3 meters) of snow fell on Passolanciano, Majella burying the chairlifts (6 Mar 2015 ) and Record snow fell in Abruzzo, Italy, 5 & 6 Mar 2015
Not far away, the Greek islands in the Mediterranean were buried under 6½ ft (2 m) of snow in January. link
In Norway they were forced to remove excessive snow from ski slopes – “During the last two days we’ve got more snow than we had in the last two years together,” says Vegar Sårheim. “I had never believed we would experience this.”
NOTE: The articles and quotations were gleaned from Ice Age Now.
This year reporting Snowiest October in Northern Hemisphere at least since the 1960s
Amazing how these errrr interesting events are NEVER EVER reported in the US MSM.
@Gail. Hi, thanks for supporting links that show ‘This is how a glacial cycle begins.’ I should point out for other interested amateurs, a ‘sloppy polar vortex’s is code for ‘ ice free warm arctic ocean.’ heh.
Pearce M. Schaudies,
Minister of Future
x
Pearce,
This is an old article at WUWT May 7, 2012 Solar grand minima linked to cooling period in Europe
Actual paper:
Regional atmospheric circulation shifts induced by a grand solar minimum
Given the current ‘sleepy sun’ it looks like we get to live through ‘interesting times.’
Item by Joe D’Aleo from weather bell
https://patriotpost.us/opinion/34979
The idea of glaciation starting with a “snow blitz” was popularized in the 1970’s when there was talk of global cooling. The theory was that heavy snows (blizzard a couple years ago in the Dakotas which killed thousands of cattle and pushed up beef prices), lead to late melt off of snow cover in spring and into summer. Higher albedo of the long snow cover slowly changes the heat balance and as you mention Gail at some point the snow drifts don’t completely melt before early fall snows start the build up again.
Theory was that once you get a year or two of year around snow cover in the great lakes and Hudson Bay region then that quickly becomes a self reinforcing cycle where each year the snow cover lasts longer and covers more area eventually becoming a regional year round snow field and then over time a snow cap changing to compacted glacier. Then the cold plunge takes off in earnest.
I am inclined to believe that the truth is a blending of a half dozen or so of these postulated “triggers” which through random chance happen to converge at the same time.
For example conditions for northern plains central Canadian shield snows being exceptionally deep, happen to converge with properly timed and located volcanic activity to lower sun intensity at the ground and increases high altitude albedo due to sulfur clouds, and a solar down cycle which matches with Milankovitch Cycle changes in earth isolation.
Throw in a lucky convergence of timing in north Atlantic oscillation and ENSO / El Nino cycles and the combined effect is probably what flips the switch but all have to converge with the right timing and intensity.
The best analogy I can think of is microphone feed back when the amplifier gain is set a bit too high in a meeting room. It first it flirts with going into feed back on audio peaks or when the speaker gets a bit too close to the mike but recovers several times then due to some random unpredictable change in the room acoustics (more people enter the room, someone opens a door and increases the sound level in the room just a tad) then the same events that used to cause it to flirt with feed back now cross a threshold and it goes into ear splitting feed back. You can’t put your finger on what the exact last straw was that pushed the system in to feedback loop that runs away but you had warnings it was very close to that limit for some time before one final push was too much.
I think the “scientists” are chasing a phantom trying to find “the cause” because it is not one single primary trigger but a confluence of several inputs which flip the bistable climate flip flop to cold from warm.
I agree with you Larry.
The shape of the Laurentide Ice Sheet suggests a lock into a meridonal jet stream.
A fall 2012 paper Can we predict the duration of an interglacial? gives the calculated solar insolation values of several glacial inceptions:
Current values are insolation = 479W m−2 (June 21 insolation minimum at 65N)
MIS 7e – insolation = 463 W m−2
MIS 11c – insolation = 466 W m−2
MIS 13a – insolation = 500 W m−2
MIS 15a – insolation = 480 W m−2
MIS 17 – insolation = 477 W m−2
NOAA’s calculations show how close to the Solar Insolation (June 21 insolation minimum at 60N) during the LOW POINT of the Wisconsin Ice Age the earth now is:
NOW (modern Warm Period) 476 Wm-2
Depth of the last ice age – around 463 Wm−2 — just 13 Wm-2 lower
Holocene peak insolation: 522.5 Wm-2 — 46.5 Wm-2 higher
So the Milankovitch Cycle sets the stage for glaciation but something else kicks the earth into a cold phase and the earth can not recover at the low solar energy phase of the Milankovitch Cycle.
A grand Solar minimum, a Dansgaard-Oeschger/ Heinrich event, the north/south lunar tides, volcanoes… are all possibles or a combination. CO2 is not in the running.
@Larry. Hi, I agree it must be a ‘Convergence of Chaos’ to trigger or entrain 5 nonlinear oscillators. We should be making lots more measurements in all oceans.
@Gail. Hi, and thanks for link to solar at WUWT. I was surprised to see Leif set it up. He is always denying strong solar influence. Well, I say it’s photons or tachyons, heh. Also have to say big Oops, my Mk-1 eyeballs need recalibrating. the chart I read insolation off of had 10ky grid, but insolation not modulated, so might consider middle 5k out of 10k.
As to previous cycle comparisons, I like MIS-9. All will be revealed by 2025, stay tuned.
Pearce M. Schaudies,
Minister of Future
@Pearce:
Short answer: The Global Ocean.
:-)
Longer answer: IMHO, during hot sun phases, a LOT more UV (like several %) goes deep into the ocean AND gets absorbed in high altitudes making a warmer stratosphere. Then a cold phase comes. Now the IR goes higher, UV lower.
The high atmosphere cools and shortens (NASA recorded the TOA decending this sleepy sun turn). This does several things. The polar vortex is squashed down, so spreads out, and makes colder higher velocity outflows and more meridional flow patterns. The shorter atmosphere also means high altitude places like mountains are functionally at higher pressure altitudes, so colder and more snow / glacial accumulation. This now colder air is dry from freezing, so IR has a clearer path to space, starting a cold to dry to colder to drier cycle.
In the ocean, IR causes prompt evaporation at the surface, increasing water vapor and slowly cooling the ocean. The end of deep UV heating and reduced deep blue heating eventually starves ocean currents a little. This slows the Gulf Steam and puts Europe in a sudden cold vice, while backing up heat in Florida (paper looked at pollen and such in Florida during glacials, found it warms a bit…). So now you have both more water vapor, longer storm runs in meridional flow, and also colder mountaintops collecting it as snow and ice.
The ice age glacial starts from the top down…. in the global mountains.
Now a perverse 3rd phase starts. The oceans drop while the ice sheet rises. High altitudes are increasingly higher, so colder and icy. Several hundred feet from ocean drop, up to a couple of miles from ice sheet depth. At 12000 feet ( 10000 of ice on 1600 of present elevation and 400 of ocean drop) it will never be warm and any water vapor arriving freezes out, assuring ongoing IR freepath to space. At the same time albedo reflect more of what sun comes, and the oceans cool.
This is a stable phase that holds to much high sun than at present. About 100000 years.
Eventually, sun about 500+ W/m^2, high in uv starts to warm the ocean again, thickens the atmospheric height, and we start getting Gulf Stream warmth creating rain to replace snows. Accumulated dust from the horrific droughts at the end of glacials, with CO2 starvation of plants denuding land, gets darkened snow absorbing sun. Now all the feedbacks run the other way. Oceans rising, rains higher up mountains melting off glaciers, etc.
But warm rains melt snow fast, so exit is quick. Cold comes early in a glacial, but water evaporates slowly from the ocean. The glacial ice accumulates over 100000 years, but leaves in just a few thousand. Warmth is capped once hurricanes and temperate thunderstorms form as the atmosphere converts to a spherical heat pipe earth… like now.
@Chief. Hi, I think that ties up all the loose ends, thanks. Have you seen a paper tieing in Hadley, Feral, Polar cells and moving ITCZ? jus curious.
Pearce M. Schaudies,
Minister of Future
@Chief. Here’s good parameter site, Swiss army knife, heh.
This site usually updates 2am est. The jet stream has some meander, and if check sea surface temp shows some anomaly with Gulf Stream, new upwelling in lite blue just no. cape Hatteras going no. to nova Scotia where it almost gets cut by purple Lab current going do. Brits could have very cold winter.
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/DailySummary/index_ds.php#WS250
Pearce M. Schaudies,
Minister of Future
One other little tidbit in that scenario, as the snow fields and early glaciers begin to build you start to get almost perpetual cold katabatic winds coming off the ice fields and sweeping out over the nearby terrain chilling it so snow is more likely to stick when it falls in the fall and remain frozen longer in the early spring. This constant cold also shifts the ground cover from trees and brush to tundra terrain which cools to the sky better than wooded terrain where the trees and the dead air between them act as an insulating “fur coat” for the terrain on clear nights and during the day create a dark absorbing surface compared to wind swept snow and tundra vegetation.
@Larry: Nice catch on the biota… and I missed the katabatic wind angle. Nice.
@Pearce: IMHO, Steven Wilde likely has the best take on the meridional shift process.
http://joannenova.com.au/2015/01/is-the-sun-driving-ozone-and-changing-the-climate/
We diverge a bit on stratospheric heating vs temperature semantics, but English is poor on heat where “heating” can mean energy gain w/o temp change, temp change, or both change.
Oh, and the process ought to also include ocean current changes as Drake’s Passage shallows (as poted in a Drake article here) and ice grounding / ungrounding in the Arctic basin with Bering Strait closure (as in my other article).
Maybe I need to write up the grand unified Ice Age Glacial changes list ;-)
E.M. Glad you included Drake’s Passage. I think that is another critical point that is completely missed by, or rather ignored by the Alarmists.
>>>>Down the rabbit hole<<<<
fhhaynie, retired EPA scientist, says: @ WUWT January 18, 2014 at 8:24 am
If you look at this Sea Surface Temperature map it has a good image of the tongue of cold water from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current just before Drake Passage, headed up the coast of South America to Galapagos. It is called the Humboldt current.
The above map shows the tongue of cold water headed into the Atlantic along Africa too.
An animated gif: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycom1-12/navo/globalsst_nowcast_anim30d.gif
The following is a typical map of sea currents/heat transfer from NASA notice what is missing.
This is a better map
http://www.geography.hunter.cuny.edu/tbw/wc.notes/7.circ.atm/ocean_currents.htm
Following the rabbit:
I have pages and pages of notes on Drake Passage. Here are a few.
The Humbolt current “is a cold, low-salinity ocean current that flows north along the west coast of South America from the southern tip of Chile to northern Peru.” (WIKI) and the Cape Horn Current. ” is a cold water current that flows west-to-east around Cape Horn. This current is caused by the intensification of the West Wind Drift as it rounds the cape….” (WIKI)
A better source: CHAPTER 31 OCEAN CURRENTS: TYPES AND CAUSES OF CURRENTS (Maritime Safety Information)
So as the West Wind Drift or Antarctic Circumpolar Current hits the restrictions from Drake Passage or Cape Horn, cold water is sent up the sides of South America and Africa. So what drives changes in these currents moving up the coasts is the intensity of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current is WIND DRIVEN.
You are not going to find any study actually discussing the whole issue just bits and pieces.
Has there been a change in wind intensity? — Yes.
2008 The response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to recent climate change
Back to the effect of Drake Passage.
Drake Passage and palaeoclimate
Research on Drakes Passage using lab experiments with a simplified geometry.
Drake Passage Effect Without the Drake Passage
CONTINUED
WIND
Bob Tisdale plots a very strong drop in Southern Ocean SST around 2007:
(Ice Age Now recorded massive snowfall from 2014 to 2015… interrupted by an El Nino.)
A look at what could cause a change in the wind strength driving the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.
Sunspots, the QBO, and the Stratosphere in the North Polar Region – 20 Years later
THE POLAR VORTEX EVOLUTION AS A POSSIBLE REASON FOR THE TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF SOLAR ACTIVITY EFFECTS ON THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE CIRCULATION
They actually did field research in this study on atmospheric circulation shifts.
06 May 2012 Nature Geoscience | Letter Regional atmospheric circulation shifts induced by a grand solar minimum
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE GENERAL CIRCULATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF TOTAL OZONE AS DETERMINED BY THE NIMBUS III SATELLITE INFRARED INTERFEROMETER SPECTROMETER
So there is the tie-in between changes in the solar energy profile, ozone and the wind velocity in the jet stream systems.
pearce m. schaudies says: “…Have you seen a paper tieing in Hadley, Feral, Polar cells and moving ITCZ?…”
From some information I put together a while ago.
Sun, Ozone, Polar Jet and the Brewer-Dobson Circulation
Let me see if I can trace the different steps via various papers. No one has put it together in one paper because it would kill or at least challenge CAGW. I was thinking I should organize my notes and lay it out anyway.
First NASA has finally admitted that the sun is not constant and although the Total Solar Insolation is relatively constant the distribution of the energy among wavelengths is not. This is the critical point.
2007 was before the deep solar minimum.
“…A 12-year low in solar “irradiance”: Careful measurements by several NASA spacecraft show that the sun’s brightness has dropped by 0.02% at visible wavelengths and 6% at extreme UV wavelengths since the solar minimum of 1996….” science(DOT)nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/01apr_deepsolarminimum/
NASA has also admitted different wavelengths of sunlight do different things in different parts of the atmosphere.
Solar Spectral Irradiance Data
Sunlight + oxygen (O2) ===> O + O
(Oxygen is disassociated in to two atoms and wants to glom onto something.)
O + O2 ====> O3 (ozone)
The reverse also happens in the atmosphere so the formation and destruction of ozone is dependent on the shifting of the amount of solar radiation at different wavelengths and NASA has shown those amounds DO SHIFT.
image from: http://www.oxidationsystems.com/products/ozone.html
MORE:
Changes in Ozone and Stratospheric Temperature Graph by NASA.
Top-Down Solar Modulation of Climate: evidence for centennial-scale change
Quasi-biennial oscillation and solar cycle influences on winter Arctic total ozone
The influence of solar variability and the quasi-biennial oscillation on lower atmospheric temperatures and sea level pressure
Climate System Response to Stratospheric Ozone Depletion and Recovery
Stratospheric polar vortex as a possible reason for temporal variations of solar activity and galactic cosmic ray effects on the lower atmosphere circulation
Before the start of Solar Cycle 24 you can see the effect of the Grand Solar Maximun on the Antarctic.
Decadal Scale Temperature Trends in the Southern Hemisphere Ocean Journal of Climate, 2008.
Gail, you and E M may be interested in the work on Glaciation by
Clive Best at
http://clivebest.com/blog/
and some work on Glaciation and Drakes Passage by Tim Cullen at
https://malagabay.wordpress.com/
He also has some very interesting Historical Science that has been “forgotten” since AGW reared it’s ugly lying head.
Mind you he also has some quite strange views as well, E M should like some of his stuff.
I forgot to say, the Drake’s Passage stuff is way back, maybe 2 or 3 years ago or even more.
This is why I posted papers on the QBO (Quasi-Biennial-Oscillation) and ozone and its effects.
I hope that helps.
With the ClimAstrologists acting as gatekeepers to publication, no one can get a paper published that shows what is happening so it is all in bits and pieces which is a royal pain.
A C Osborn, thanks.
I am aware of Clive but haven’t read extensively at his site, just a few of his articles.
Tim I was completely unaware of so thanks.
There really is a huge body of science out there but thanks to the […insert series of nasty swear words…] ClimAstrologists, nothing has been done to bring it together into a cohesive theory that is open to testing and criticism. They have done to much of science, and not just atmospheric science, what Lysanko did to Russian biology but they did it to the entire world and not just one country.
In my opinion they dragged human’s forward progress almost to a halt and for that the whole lot of them, especially those behind the scam, deserve to be tried and then shot!
If the astroturf nuclear power scare, ozone scare…. and massive irrational regulations had not been imposed from the 1950s on, the entire world, not just the USA and Europe would be a heck of a lot better off.
Federal Regulations Have Made You 75 Percent Poorer U.S. GDP is just $16 trillion instead of $54 trillion… in the absence of six decades of accumulated regulations—a median household income of $330,000 instead of the $53,000 we get now.
That article has been removed, not only from the internet but the copy on the Wayback has also been removed… but copies were saved.
http://reason.com/archives/2013/06/21/federal-regulations-have-made-you-75-per
Please note that Americans are the most generous people on earth or were before impoverished and turned towards Marxism (otherwise known as spending other peoples money.) “Americans give twice as much as the next most charitable country, according to a November 2006 comparison done by the Charities Aid Foundation.”
Very interesting Gail. I really appreciate you doing the grunt work to assemble all those sources and flag relevant parts.
Some interesting observations: as the solar spectrum shifts it moves the energy distribution around, and because of the absorption process mentioned you would literally move where the sun’s energy is deposited in the atmosphere. As UV increases, it would affect a deeper layer of the atmosphere, when it weakens the layer affected would thin and move higher in the atmosphere.
This same sort of process would change as we shift from summer to winter in a given hemisphere. Mid summer in the northern hemisphere the UV is being deposited in a relatively deep layer of the stratosphere, then as we shift into the fall that layer would get thinner and thinner as the path the UV radiation travels through the atmosphere became less perpendicular to the atmosphere and arrived at a more grazing angle, then in the winter, only the very highest layers of the stratosphere still illuminated by the sun would see any UV at all.
These effects would create two cycles. One an annual cycle due to the season where the UV radiation changes from depositing its energy in a relatively deep layer in the summer to a progressively thinner higher layer in the winter. A second would modulate the ionosphere absorption layer by any long term changes in the sun’s UV output. Given the shift in UV which is well documented with sunspot activity this would provide the link to changes in climate associated with sunspot counts.
Total solar energy does not change much with sunspots but where that energy gets deposited in the atmosphere and the oceans would.
The same effects would occur in the polar ocean as IR intensity changes both with season and solar output.
Larry,
Thanks for pointing out the winter/summer depth of the atmosphere angle. This would also apply to changes in axial tilt over the Milancovitch cycle.
I always thought the TSI point that Leif S. keeps hammering is a red herring. TSI may remain relatively constant but a whole heck of a lot of other things change.
For example:
Solar variability and climate change: Geomagnetic aa index and global surface temperature
E. W. Cliver, V. Boriakoff and J. Feynman
Howdy folks. I wish to thank one and all for the links an brain- candy. Nice holiday gift. The Brewer-Dobson Circulation I need to do again, heh.
Pearce M. Schaudies,
Minister of Future
It is just weather but looks like our first good arctic cold front will hit the US later this week with below zero F temps in the Denver Area by Wednesday.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/polar-plunge-to-grip-majority-of-contiguous-us-this-week/70000175
Hmmmmmm a 1500 year cycle of earth rotation — doesn’t that sound familiar?
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/dec/07/earths-day-lengthens-by-two-milliseconds-a-century-astronomers-find
It would be a huge mistake to sit on our laurels during the Trump administration. We should view the Trump administration as an opportunity to do something. More than ever, we need to organize and educate American on the bad science that supports the global warming initiative.