GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Baseline End 2015

I’m doing a quick comparison of a few GHCN v3.3 vs v4 countries with the v4 statistics and anomalies computed using a “cut off” of before 2016. This will have both using the same time period to compute their anomalies (though different instruments in some cases – mostly The USA and Germany have added data).

You can think of this as a “Baseline Period” that runs from the start of data through 2015.

MariaDB [temps]> SELECT MAX(year) FROM temps3;
+-----------+
| MAX(year) |
+-----------+
| 2015      |
+-----------+
1 row in set (16.51 sec)

Why? Because using all the v4 duration has 2016, 2017 & 2018 data used to make the average used to compute anomalies. To the extent they are hotter data points, it can make it look like the “past was cooled” as the average was higher. So this is to gauge how much of an issue that might be.

Overall, the graphs ought not change much. The average temperature in June in NYC Central Park ought to be a fairly stable number.

But we’ll see.

The Tables

So I’ve added three tables. These first two are identical to the anom4 and mstats4 tables other than the name of the tables being mstatsS4 and anomS4 where the “S” is for “Short”.

Loading them was a bit slower due to an added test for year, but still not too bad on a Raspberry Pi M3:

MariaDB [temps]> source tables/anomS4
Query OK, 0 rows affected (0.76 sec)

MariaDB [temps]> source tables/mstatsS4
Query OK, 0 rows affected (0.08 sec)

MariaDB [temps]> source bin/LOAD/LmstatsS4
Query OK, 328326 rows affected (29 min 12.35 sec)
Records: 328326  Duplicates: 0  Warnings: 0

Empty set (0.00 sec)

MariaDB [temps]> source tables/mkanomindexS4
Query OK, 0 rows affected (0.41 sec)
Records: 0  Duplicates: 0  Warnings: 0

Query OK, 0 rows affected (0.08 sec)
Records: 0  Duplicates: 0  Warnings: 0

Query OK, 0 rows affected (0.06 sec)
Records: 0  Duplicates: 0  Warnings: 0

MariaDB [temps]> source bin/LOAD/LanomS4
Query OK, 15450484 rows affected (29 min 20.49 sec)
Records: 15450484  Duplicates: 0  Warnings: 0

Empty set (0.03 sec)

MariaDB [temps]>   

There’s the one that computes the statistics. I’ve bolded the change:

chiefio@PiM3Devuan2:~/SQL/bin/LOAD$ cat LmstatsS4 
INSERT INTO  mstatsS4 (stnID,month,mean,big,small,num,trang,stdev)
SELECT stnID,month,
ROUND(AVG(deg_C),2),MAX(deg_C),MIN(deg_C),COUNT(deg_C), MAX(deg_C)-MIN(deg_C), ROUND(STDDEV(deg_C),2)
FROM temps4 
WHERE deg_C>-90.0 AND deg_C< 60.0 AND year<2016
GROUP BY stnID,month;

show warnings;

Then computing the anomalies is the same, just to a different storage table:

chiefio@PiM3Devuan2:~/SQL/bin/LOAD$ cat LanomS4 
INSERT INTO  anomS4 (stnID,abrev,region,cnum,year,month,deg_C)
SELECT T.stnID,T.abrev,C.region,C.cnum,T.year,T.month,ROUND(T.deg_C-ST.mean,2)
FROM temps4 AS T
INNER JOIN country AS C
ON T.abrev=C.abrev
INNER JOIN mstatsS4 AS ST 
ON
        ST.stnID=T.stnID
	AND ST.month=T.month 
WHERE T.deg_C > -90.0 AND T.deg_C < 60.0 
;

show warnings;
chiefio@PiM3Devuan2:~/SQL/bin/LOAD$ 

Then there’s the need to make a modified yrcastats table. I called it “yrcastatsS” and it is identical in layout. Only the loading of the data comes from the anom4S table instead.

Then you can run the graphs:

This involves just pointing the reports at anom4S and yrcastatsS tables and saying RUN.

LG Latvia

I chose these guys as a small country unlikely to have a lot of thermometers, so more likely to have any change in the final years data show up in an “apples to apples” comparison. That is, looking at the same thermometers. There’s ALMOST no detectable difference in the graphs. Just enough to know it isn’t an error on my part and I ran the same one. A couple of spots that are on top of each other as almost one spot on one, but a smear on the other. Some slightly different spacing in a group.

In particular, look at the far right near the bottom. There are three dots in a tight cluster triangle. All three sort of touch in the lower graph (original) and have separation if only barely in the short graph with 2015 as the last date for anomaly computation. (the top graph). It looks to me like a few hundredths of a degree C at most.

I’m still going to try a few more and see if I can find one more dramatic. Then, these are so close I’m going back through the whole process end to end to make sure it is doing what it ought to do ;-)

GHCN v3 vs v4 SHORT LG Latvia Difference

GHCN v3 vs v4 SHORT LG Latvia Difference

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Latvia Difference

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Latvia Difference

GHCN v3 vs v4 SHORT LG Latvia Anomaly

GHCN v3 vs v4 SHORT LG Latvia Anomaly

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Latvia Anomaly

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Latvia Anomaly

So all that gives me confidence that my conclusions on all the other graphs don’t need a rewrite due to length of data in the average used for the anomaly computation being different between v3.3 and v4. It does make a difference, but it is so small as to almost undetectable in the graphs.

GM Germany

I’m just going to do the Germany Difference graph. Germany and the USA added a lot of thermometers, so it’s a good test case for the impact of both difference in years in baseline and the impact of instruments added on this particular chart. The last couple of dots are easier to see some shift. Most of it is pretty static.

At the very recent end of the plot there’s a triangle of 3 dots. Look carefully and you can see they are slightly different placement. The top dot in the top graph is slightly higher.

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 SHORT GM Germany Difference

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 SHORT GM Germany Difference

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Germany Difference

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Germany Difference

In Conclusion

It does look like the method I used is fairly stable and resistant to the “attack” based on saying v4 used extra years in that “baseline” than did v3.3 data. It makes a difference, but not one that changes the conclusions (or can even be found most of the time).

With that, I’m comfortable saying the prior comments on countries is fairly reliable and when there is “cooling of the past” it is NOT due to the length of data over which the monthly average temperatures are computed for making the anomalies.

Let the whooping and hollering begin! ;-)

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in NCDC - GHCN Issues and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

27 Responses to GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Baseline End 2015

  1. CoRev says:

    EM well done and thanks.

  2. p.g.sharrow says:

    oh oh HURRAH ! ;-) …pg

  3. E.M.Smith says:

    @CoRev & P.G.:

    Well, I’m glad someone noticed! I was beginning to wonder if anyone had read this article or if it was just no longer of interest!

    FWIW, with this “sanitation measure” done and pretty much showing the method is sturdy against baseline length changes; I’m quite comfortable now that the conclusions of “some crap happened” and the data being rather cooked are well supported. Still don’t know the method, or the person / place / time of it. (Well, maybe the time…. we know when v4 was made).

    What is now quite clear is that V4 is a significant “change of history” and a lot of “cooling the past” going on. That’s rather damning, IMHO.

    It also means that looking at individual stations and at countries with one or a few stations ought to be instructive as to “how the deed was done” and just what it was. I’m torn between doing that, and doing a v2 vs v3 vs v4 comparison. I know that v3 was somewhat cooked vs v1 ( I did a different comparison then). Looking at the whole degree of historical change might be even more interesting. OTOH, finding the “smoking gun” might be more useful…

  4. Bill in Oz says:

    E M You wrote “I’m comfortable saying the prior comments on countries is fairly reliable and when there is “cooling of the past” it is NOT due to the length of data over which the monthly average temperatures are computed for making the anomalies.”
    But I suggest you were being coy about what was actually happening.. So I held off commenting until you came out & said what, in your view is happening.

    And now you have.

    Well Done !

    And yes checking out the data from smaller stable countries will give us all more of a handle on how it’s being done.

    What about Malta ? Reliable records by the Royal Navy from about 1805-6 in English; and a dry mediterranean climate unlike Latvia.

    By the way I have . a mate here in Oz who’s folks fled from Latvia in 1945. And came to Oz as refugees. Now he has gone and bought land there and lives in Latvia for half the year. But comes home to sunny Australia for the Winter. Why ? Too bloody cold ! No global warming there in his experience. But the past Spring was dry.

  5. CoRev says:

    EM, either: ” Looking at the whole degree of historical change might be even more interesting. OTOH, finding the “smoking gun” might be more useful…” would be a break through, but defining the “whole degree of historical change” would, to me appear, the easiest route.

    I suspect there is no smoking gun but a large set of minor changes, and many due to adjusting data to expectations, which effect the overall data set. Working with data is always a trial of expectations, and identifying those exceptions outside our expectations’ limits (confirmation bias). Making a case for anything more than bias may be difficult.

  6. p.g.sharrow says:

    My thoughts seem to center on the movement from many wide spread stations toward fewer stations located in lower districts and being located near built up areas and including major airfields. Man made warming of the modern recorded averages and cooling of early record averages would seem to indicate this is the culprit and not deliberate manipulations. .
    You have some country records from areas that have no changes in the records both in averages as well as stations. Others with obvious changes in stations, placement and numbers, that also demonstrate large changes in their averages. Meanwhile I see no overall pattern of change in all the records. So it would seem to me to be a general change of methods use to acquire the data. Man made climate change mostly due to changes in data acquisition rather then deliberate changes in the data….pg

  7. E.M.Smith says:

    @All:

    Interesting points that I’ll need to think on a bit.

    I’ve knocked together a little SQL program that gives me a numerical value for the difference, not just a graph. I wanted the graphs so that I’d see if visually my assessment would be changed. Then it was so small that I saw I need a number value:

    SELECT Y.abrev,Y.year, (S.mean4-S.mean3) AS "2015 Baseline",
                   (Y.mean4-Y.mean3) AS "Full Data",
           ((S.mean3-S.mean4)-(Y.mean3-Y.mean4)) AS "Change"
           FROM yrcastats AS Y
           INNER JOIN yrcastatsS AS S ON Y.year=S.year
           AND Y.abrev=S.abrev
           WHERE Y.abrev='LG' AND Y.year<2016
           ORDER BY Y.year
    ;
    

    By changing the “WHERE Y.abrev=” to anther abbreviation I can get this for any country. I’m also going to do an “average over the years” for all countries at some point.

    -------+------+---------------+-----------+--------+
    | abrev | year | 2015 Baseline | Full Data | Change |
    +-------+------+---------------+-----------+--------+
    | LG    | 1795 |         -0.08 |     -0.08 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1796 |         -0.09 |     -0.09 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1797 |         -0.09 |     -0.09 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1798 |         -0.08 |     -0.08 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1799 |         -0.09 |     -0.09 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1800 |         -0.09 |     -0.09 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1801 |         -0.09 |     -0.09 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1802 |         -0.09 |     -0.09 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1803 |         -0.09 |     -0.09 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1804 |         -0.08 |     -0.08 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1805 |         -0.09 |     -0.09 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1806 |         -0.08 |     -0.08 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1807 |         -0.08 |     -0.08 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1808 |         -0.09 |     -0.09 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1809 |         -0.09 |     -0.09 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1810 |         -0.08 |     -0.08 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1811 |         -0.08 |     -0.08 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1812 |         -0.09 |     -0.09 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1813 |         -0.09 |     -0.09 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1814 |         -0.08 |     -0.08 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1824 |          0.27 |      0.27 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1825 |          0.53 |      0.53 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1826 |          0.81 |      0.81 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1827 |          0.48 |      0.48 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1828 |          0.16 |      0.16 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1829 |         -0.26 |     -0.26 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1830 |         -0.47 |     -0.47 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1831 |         -0.41 |     -0.41 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1839 |         -6.98 |     -6.98 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1840 |         -0.35 |     -0.35 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1841 |         -0.27 |     -0.27 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1842 |         -0.26 |     -0.26 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1843 |         -0.10 |     -0.10 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1844 |         -0.02 |     -0.02 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1845 |          0.19 |      0.19 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1846 |          0.03 |      0.03 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1847 |         -0.09 |     -0.09 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1848 |          0.01 |      0.01 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1850 |         -0.05 |     -0.05 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1851 |         -0.12 |     -0.12 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1852 |         -0.09 |     -0.09 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1853 |          0.02 |      0.02 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1854 |          0.03 |      0.03 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1855 |          0.02 |      0.02 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1856 |         -0.10 |     -0.10 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1857 |         -0.40 |     -0.40 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1858 |         -0.05 |     -0.05 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1859 |          0.01 |      0.01 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1860 |          0.02 |      0.02 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1861 |          0.01 |      0.01 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1862 |          0.06 |      0.06 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1863 |          0.02 |      0.02 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1864 |          0.06 |      0.06 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1865 |          0.03 |      0.03 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1866 |         -0.05 |     -0.05 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1867 |         -0.04 |     -0.04 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1868 |         -0.32 |     -0.32 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1869 |         -0.27 |     -0.27 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1870 |         -0.16 |     -0.16 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1871 |          0.05 |      0.05 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1872 |         -0.07 |     -0.07 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1873 |         -0.08 |     -0.08 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1874 |         -0.09 |     -0.09 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1875 |         -0.09 |     -0.09 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1876 |         -0.08 |     -0.08 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1877 |         -0.09 |     -0.09 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1878 |         -0.08 |     -0.08 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1879 |         -0.09 |     -0.09 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1880 |         -0.09 |     -0.09 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1881 |         -0.04 |     -0.05 |  -0.01 |
    | LG    | 1882 |         -0.19 |     -0.20 |  -0.01 |
    | LG    | 1883 |         -0.03 |     -0.05 |  -0.02 |
    | LG    | 1884 |         -0.29 |     -0.31 |  -0.02 |
    | LG    | 1885 |          0.08 |      0.07 |  -0.01 |
    | LG    | 1886 |         -0.62 |     -0.63 |  -0.01 |
    | LG    | 1887 |         -0.05 |     -0.07 |  -0.02 |
    | LG    | 1888 |         -0.06 |     -0.08 |  -0.02 |
    | LG    | 1889 |         -0.08 |     -0.08 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1890 |         -0.08 |     -0.08 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1891 |         -0.08 |     -0.08 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1892 |         -0.09 |     -0.09 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1893 |         -0.08 |     -0.08 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1894 |         -0.09 |     -0.09 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1895 |         -0.07 |     -0.08 |  -0.01 |
    | LG    | 1896 |         -0.04 |     -0.05 |  -0.01 |
    | LG    | 1897 |         -0.04 |     -0.06 |  -0.02 |
    | LG    | 1898 |         -0.05 |     -0.06 |  -0.01 |
    | LG    | 1899 |         -0.05 |     -0.07 |  -0.02 |
    | LG    | 1900 |         -0.07 |     -0.09 |  -0.02 |
    | LG    | 1901 |         -0.07 |     -0.08 |  -0.01 |
    | LG    | 1902 |         -0.05 |     -0.06 |  -0.01 |
    | LG    | 1903 |         -0.04 |     -0.05 |  -0.01 |
    | LG    | 1904 |         -0.04 |     -0.06 |  -0.02 |
    | LG    | 1905 |         -0.05 |     -0.06 |  -0.01 |
    | LG    | 1906 |         -0.05 |     -0.07 |  -0.02 |
    | LG    | 1907 |         -0.03 |     -0.04 |  -0.01 |
    | LG    | 1908 |         -0.05 |     -0.07 |  -0.02 |
    | LG    | 1909 |         -0.05 |     -0.07 |  -0.02 |
    | LG    | 1910 |         -0.05 |     -0.06 |  -0.01 |
    | LG    | 1911 |         -0.05 |     -0.06 |  -0.01 |
    | LG    | 1912 |         -0.04 |     -0.05 |  -0.01 |
    | LG    | 1913 |         -0.05 |     -0.06 |  -0.01 |
    | LG    | 1914 |         -0.05 |     -0.07 |  -0.02 |
    | LG    | 1915 |         -0.07 |     -0.08 |  -0.01 |
    | LG    | 1916 |         -0.08 |     -0.08 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1917 |         -0.08 |     -0.08 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1918 |         -0.08 |     -0.08 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1919 |         -0.08 |     -0.08 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1920 |         -0.09 |     -0.09 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1921 |         -0.08 |     -0.08 |   0.00 |
    | LG    | 1922 |         -0.01 |     -0.03 |  -0.02 |
    | LG    | 1923 |          0.10 |      0.09 |  -0.01 |
    | LG    | 1924 |         -0.09 |     -0.11 |  -0.02 |
    | LG    | 1925 |         -0.55 |     -0.57 |  -0.02 |
    | LG    | 1926 |         -0.40 |     -0.42 |  -0.02 |
    | LG    | 1927 |         -0.26 |     -0.29 |  -0.03 |
    | LG    | 1928 |         -0.22 |     -0.25 |  -0.03 |
    | LG    | 1929 |         -0.23 |     -0.26 |  -0.03 |
    | LG    | 1930 |         -0.22 |     -0.24 |  -0.02 |
    | LG    | 1931 |         -0.47 |     -0.50 |  -0.03 |
    | LG    | 1932 |         -0.53 |     -0.56 |  -0.03 |
    | LG    | 1933 |         -0.31 |     -0.34 |  -0.03 |
    | LG    | 1934 |         -0.63 |     -0.65 |  -0.02 |
    | LG    | 1935 |         -0.34 |     -0.36 |  -0.02 |
    | LG    | 1936 |         -0.41 |     -0.44 |  -0.03 |
    | LG    | 1937 |         -0.50 |     -0.53 |  -0.03 |
    | LG    | 1938 |         -0.37 |     -0.39 |  -0.02 |
    | LG    | 1939 |         -0.37 |     -0.39 |  -0.02 |
    | LG    | 1940 |         -0.72 |     -0.75 |  -0.03 |
    | LG    | 1941 |         -0.41 |     -0.43 |  -0.02 |
    | LG    | 1942 |         -0.30 |     -0.32 |  -0.02 |
    | LG    | 1943 |          0.23 |      0.20 |  -0.03 |
    | LG    | 1944 |         -0.21 |     -0.23 |  -0.02 |
    | LG    | 1945 |          0.15 |      0.13 |  -0.02 |
    | LG    | 1946 |          0.17 |      0.14 |  -0.03 |
    | LG    | 1947 |          0.38 |      0.34 |  -0.04 |
    | LG    | 1948 |          0.02 |     -0.02 |  -0.04 |
    | LG    | 1949 |          0.13 |      0.09 |  -0.04 |
    | LG    | 1950 |         -0.04 |     -0.07 |  -0.03 |
    | LG    | 1951 |         -0.19 |     -0.23 |  -0.04 |
    | LG    | 1952 |         -0.21 |     -0.25 |  -0.04 |
    | LG    | 1953 |         -0.19 |     -0.22 |  -0.03 |
    | LG    | 1954 |          0.04 |     -0.01 |  -0.05 |
    | LG    | 1955 |         -0.24 |     -0.28 |  -0.04 |
    | LG    | 1956 |         -0.34 |     -0.39 |  -0.05 |
    | LG    | 1957 |         -0.08 |     -0.12 |  -0.04 |
    | LG    | 1958 |         -0.29 |     -0.33 |  -0.04 |
    | LG    | 1959 |          0.01 |     -0.04 |  -0.05 |
    | LG    | 1960 |          0.02 |     -0.02 |  -0.04 |
    | LG    | 1961 |         -0.07 |     -0.11 |  -0.04 |
    | LG    | 1962 |          0.00 |     -0.04 |  -0.04 |
    | LG    | 1963 |         -0.25 |     -0.30 |  -0.05 |
    | LG    | 1964 |         -0.11 |     -0.19 |  -0.08 |
    | LG    | 1965 |         -0.30 |     -0.36 |  -0.06 |
    | LG    | 1966 |         -0.13 |     -0.20 |  -0.07 |
    | LG    | 1967 |         -0.27 |     -0.35 |  -0.08 |
    | LG    | 1968 |         -0.35 |     -0.43 |  -0.08 |
    | LG    | 1969 |         -0.39 |     -0.46 |  -0.07 |
    | LG    | 1970 |         -0.64 |     -0.75 |  -0.11 |
    | LG    | 1971 |         -0.27 |     -0.32 |  -0.05 |
    | LG    | 1972 |          0.05 |      0.01 |  -0.04 |
    | LG    | 1973 |         -0.45 |     -0.50 |  -0.05 |
    | LG    | 1974 |         -0.10 |     -0.16 |  -0.06 |
    | LG    | 1975 |         -0.21 |     -0.25 |  -0.04 |
    | LG    | 1976 |         -0.13 |     -0.18 |  -0.05 |
    | LG    | 1977 |         -0.19 |     -0.23 |  -0.04 |
    | LG    | 1978 |         -0.36 |     -0.40 |  -0.04 |
    | LG    | 1979 |         -0.08 |     -0.13 |  -0.05 |
    | LG    | 1980 |         -0.30 |     -0.35 |  -0.05 |
    | LG    | 1981 |         -0.26 |     -0.30 |  -0.04 |
    | LG    | 1982 |         -0.21 |     -0.25 |  -0.04 |
    | LG    | 1983 |         -0.33 |     -0.37 |  -0.04 |
    | LG    | 1984 |         -0.44 |     -0.48 |  -0.04 |
    | LG    | 1985 |         -0.39 |     -0.44 |  -0.05 |
    | LG    | 1986 |         -0.36 |     -0.40 |  -0.04 |
    | LG    | 1987 |         -0.45 |     -0.50 |  -0.05 |
    | LG    | 1988 |         -0.33 |     -0.37 |  -0.04 |
    | LG    | 1989 |         -0.32 |     -0.37 |  -0.05 |
    | LG    | 1990 |         -4.47 |     -4.51 |  -0.04 |
    | LG    | 1991 |         -0.34 |     -0.38 |  -0.04 |
    | LG    | 1992 |         -0.38 |     -0.43 |  -0.05 |
    | LG    | 1993 |         -0.66 |     -0.71 |  -0.05 |
    | LG    | 1994 |         -0.57 |     -0.61 |  -0.04 |
    | LG    | 1995 |         -0.27 |     -0.33 |  -0.06 |
    | LG    | 1996 |         -0.36 |     -0.41 |  -0.05 |
    | LG    | 1997 |         -0.59 |     -0.68 |  -0.09 |
    | LG    | 1998 |         -0.46 |     -0.54 |  -0.08 |
    | LG    | 1999 |         -0.52 |     -0.62 |  -0.10 |
    | LG    | 2000 |         -0.38 |     -0.44 |  -0.06 |
    | LG    | 2001 |          0.39 |      0.36 |  -0.03 |
    | LG    | 2002 |          0.60 |      0.56 |  -0.04 |
    | LG    | 2003 |          0.43 |      0.39 |  -0.04 |
    | LG    | 2004 |         -0.03 |     -0.08 |  -0.05 |
    | LG    | 2005 |         -0.36 |     -0.41 |  -0.05 |
    | LG    | 2006 |         -0.09 |     -0.14 |  -0.05 |
    | LG    | 2007 |         -0.32 |     -0.36 |  -0.04 |
    | LG    | 2008 |         -0.34 |     -0.39 |  -0.05 |
    | LG    | 2009 |         -0.53 |     -0.62 |  -0.09 |
    | LG    | 2010 |          0.16 |      0.07 |  -0.09 |
    | LG    | 2011 |         -0.21 |     -0.30 |  -0.09 |
    | LG    | 2012 |         -0.37 |     -0.47 |  -0.10 |
    | LG    | 2013 |         -0.46 |     -0.53 |  -0.07 |
    | LG    | 2014 |         -0.39 |     -0.49 |  -0.10 |
    | LG    | 2015 |         -0.11 |     -0.21 |  -0.10 |
    +-------+------+---------------+-----------+--------+
    204 rows in set (0.08 sec)
    

    As I thought, the difference is mostly down in the 1/100 C place as a few hundredths up until the last few years when it gets to be a 1/10 value.

    Germany is very similar but without the jump up at the end. (USA is very similar too so I’m not pasting it in).

    +-------+------+---------------+-----------+--------+
    | abrev | year | 2015 Baseline | Full Data | Change |
    +-------+------+---------------+-----------+--------+
    | GM    | 1701 |          0.05 |      0.02 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1702 |          0.02 |     -0.01 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1703 |          0.03 |      0.00 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1704 |          0.06 |      0.03 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1705 |          0.01 |     -0.01 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1706 |          0.02 |      0.00 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1707 |          0.02 |      0.00 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1708 |          0.02 |     -0.01 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1709 |          0.03 |      0.00 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1710 |          0.12 |      0.08 |  -0.04 |
    | GM    | 1728 |          0.02 |     -0.01 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1729 |          0.09 |      0.06 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1730 |          0.03 |      0.00 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1731 |          0.03 |      0.00 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1732 |          0.03 |      0.00 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1733 |          0.02 |      0.00 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1734 |          0.03 |      0.00 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1735 |          0.02 |     -0.01 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1736 |          0.02 |      0.00 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1737 |          0.03 |      0.00 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1738 |          0.03 |      0.00 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1739 |          0.02 |     -0.01 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1740 |          0.02 |      0.00 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1741 |          0.02 |     -0.01 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1742 |          0.02 |     -0.01 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1743 |          0.02 |     -0.01 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1744 |          0.02 |     -0.01 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1745 |          0.02 |      0.00 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1746 |          0.03 |      0.00 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1747 |          0.02 |     -0.01 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1748 |          0.02 |     -0.01 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1749 |          0.02 |     -0.01 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1750 |          0.03 |      0.00 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1751 |          0.02 |      0.00 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1755 |          0.06 |      0.02 |  -0.04 |
    | GM    | 1756 |          0.02 |     -0.01 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1757 |         -0.04 |     -0.06 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1758 |         -0.08 |     -0.10 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1759 |         -0.08 |     -0.09 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1760 |         -0.06 |     -0.06 |   0.00 |
    | GM    | 1761 |         -0.05 |     -0.06 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1762 |         -0.06 |     -0.07 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1763 |         -0.06 |     -0.06 |   0.00 |
    | GM    | 1764 |         -0.05 |     -0.06 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1765 |         -0.05 |     -0.06 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1766 |         -0.06 |     -0.07 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1767 |         -0.06 |     -0.07 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1768 |         -0.05 |     -0.06 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1769 |         -0.03 |     -0.04 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1770 |         -0.11 |     -0.13 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1771 |         -0.11 |     -0.13 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1772 |         -0.12 |     -0.13 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1773 |         -0.01 |     -0.03 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1774 |         -0.01 |     -0.03 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1775 |         -0.01 |     -0.03 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1776 |         -0.14 |     -0.16 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1777 |         -0.01 |     -0.03 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1778 |         -0.01 |     -0.03 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1779 |         -0.14 |     -0.16 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1780 |         -0.08 |     -0.10 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1781 |         -0.16 |     -0.18 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1782 |         -0.21 |     -0.23 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1783 |         -0.18 |     -0.20 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1784 |         -0.22 |     -0.25 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1785 |         -0.12 |     -0.14 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1786 |         -0.10 |     -0.13 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1787 |         -0.24 |     -0.27 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1788 |         -0.05 |     -0.07 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1789 |         -0.15 |     -0.17 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1790 |         -0.19 |     -0.21 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1791 |         -0.28 |     -0.30 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1792 |         -0.16 |     -0.19 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1793 |         -0.18 |     -0.21 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1794 |         -0.16 |     -0.18 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1795 |         -0.08 |     -0.11 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1796 |         -0.18 |     -0.20 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1797 |         -0.15 |     -0.17 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1798 |         -0.11 |     -0.13 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1799 |         -0.08 |     -0.11 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1800 |         -0.12 |     -0.14 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1801 |         -0.04 |     -0.07 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1802 |         -0.06 |     -0.09 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1803 |         -0.05 |     -0.07 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1804 |         -0.04 |     -0.06 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1805 |         -0.02 |     -0.05 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1806 |         -0.03 |     -0.06 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1807 |         -0.08 |     -0.10 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1808 |         -0.03 |     -0.05 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1809 |          0.03 |      0.01 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1810 |          0.10 |      0.08 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1811 |         -0.06 |     -0.08 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1812 |         -0.06 |     -0.09 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1813 |         -0.12 |     -0.14 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1814 |         -0.10 |     -0.12 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1815 |         -0.10 |     -0.12 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1816 |         -0.12 |     -0.14 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1817 |          0.03 |      0.01 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1818 |          0.15 |      0.14 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1819 |          0.11 |      0.10 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1820 |         -0.10 |     -0.12 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1821 |         -0.06 |     -0.07 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1822 |         -0.02 |     -0.04 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1823 |          0.00 |     -0.02 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1824 |         -0.07 |     -0.09 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1825 |         -0.14 |     -0.16 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1826 |         -0.11 |     -0.13 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1827 |         -0.08 |     -0.10 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1828 |         -0.04 |     -0.06 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1829 |         -0.05 |     -0.06 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1830 |         -0.03 |     -0.04 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1831 |         -0.06 |     -0.07 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1832 |         -0.03 |     -0.05 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1833 |          0.01 |     -0.01 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1834 |         -0.01 |     -0.02 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1835 |         -0.11 |     -0.12 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1836 |         -0.03 |     -0.05 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1837 |         -0.04 |     -0.05 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1838 |         -0.03 |     -0.05 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1839 |         -0.02 |     -0.04 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1840 |         -0.10 |     -0.12 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1841 |         -0.10 |     -0.12 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1842 |         -0.19 |     -0.21 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1843 |         -0.16 |     -0.17 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1844 |         -0.13 |     -0.15 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1845 |         -0.12 |     -0.13 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1846 |         -0.04 |     -0.06 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1847 |         -0.10 |     -0.11 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1848 |         -0.13 |     -0.14 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1849 |         -0.06 |     -0.08 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1850 |         -0.11 |     -0.13 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1851 |         -0.12 |     -0.14 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1852 |         -0.20 |     -0.21 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1853 |         -0.08 |     -0.10 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1854 |         -0.17 |     -0.18 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1855 |         -0.06 |     -0.08 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1856 |         -0.09 |     -0.11 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1857 |         -0.17 |     -0.18 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1858 |         -0.10 |     -0.12 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1859 |         -0.05 |     -0.07 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1860 |         -0.09 |     -0.10 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1861 |         -0.09 |     -0.11 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1862 |         -0.02 |     -0.03 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1863 |         -0.10 |     -0.11 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1864 |         -0.05 |     -0.07 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1865 |         -0.04 |     -0.06 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1866 |         -0.10 |     -0.11 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1867 |         -0.08 |     -0.10 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1868 |         -0.12 |     -0.14 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1869 |         -0.12 |     -0.14 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1870 |         -0.16 |     -0.18 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1871 |         -0.26 |     -0.28 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1872 |         -0.23 |     -0.25 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1873 |         -0.23 |     -0.25 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1874 |         -0.20 |     -0.22 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1875 |         -0.20 |     -0.22 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1876 |         -0.19 |     -0.20 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1877 |         -0.23 |     -0.24 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1878 |         -0.25 |     -0.26 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1879 |         -0.20 |     -0.21 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1880 |         -0.23 |     -0.24 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1881 |         -0.25 |     -0.27 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1882 |         -0.19 |     -0.21 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1883 |         -0.17 |     -0.18 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1884 |         -0.15 |     -0.17 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1885 |         -0.19 |     -0.20 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1886 |         -0.15 |     -0.17 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1887 |         -0.18 |     -0.20 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1888 |         -0.24 |     -0.26 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1889 |         -0.15 |     -0.17 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1890 |         -0.15 |     -0.16 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1891 |         -0.16 |     -0.18 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1892 |         -0.24 |     -0.26 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1893 |         -0.22 |     -0.24 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1894 |         -0.14 |     -0.15 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1895 |         -0.18 |     -0.19 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1896 |         -0.15 |     -0.17 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1897 |         -0.21 |     -0.23 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1898 |         -0.30 |     -0.32 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1899 |         -0.20 |     -0.22 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1900 |         -0.24 |     -0.26 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1901 |         -0.17 |     -0.19 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1902 |         -0.16 |     -0.18 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1903 |         -0.25 |     -0.27 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1904 |         -0.29 |     -0.31 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1905 |         -0.18 |     -0.20 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1906 |         -0.18 |     -0.20 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1907 |         -0.22 |     -0.24 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1908 |         -0.10 |     -0.12 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1909 |         -0.14 |     -0.16 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1910 |         -0.10 |     -0.13 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1911 |         -0.18 |     -0.20 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1912 |         -0.14 |     -0.16 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1913 |         -0.11 |     -0.14 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1914 |         -0.05 |     -0.07 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1915 |         -0.17 |     -0.19 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1916 |         -0.13 |     -0.15 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1917 |         -0.16 |     -0.18 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1918 |         -0.17 |     -0.19 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1919 |         -0.20 |     -0.22 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1920 |         -0.11 |     -0.13 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1921 |         -0.12 |     -0.14 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1922 |         -0.12 |     -0.14 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1923 |         -0.19 |     -0.21 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1924 |         -0.14 |     -0.16 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1925 |         -0.24 |     -0.26 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1926 |         -0.22 |     -0.24 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1927 |         -0.21 |     -0.23 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1928 |         -0.26 |     -0.29 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1929 |         -0.28 |     -0.30 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1930 |         -0.25 |     -0.27 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1931 |         -0.08 |     -0.11 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1932 |         -0.17 |     -0.20 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1933 |          0.05 |      0.03 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1934 |         -0.05 |     -0.08 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1935 |         -0.19 |     -0.22 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1936 |         -0.17 |     -0.19 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1937 |         -0.16 |     -0.18 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1938 |         -0.20 |     -0.22 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1939 |         -0.13 |     -0.15 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1940 |         -0.20 |     -0.23 |  -0.03 |
    | GM    | 1941 |         -0.14 |     -0.16 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1942 |         -0.39 |     -0.41 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1943 |         -0.26 |     -0.28 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1944 |         -0.23 |     -0.25 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1945 |         -0.33 |     -0.35 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1946 |         -0.30 |     -0.32 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1947 |         -0.34 |     -0.36 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1948 |         -0.33 |     -0.35 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1949 |         -0.27 |     -0.28 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1950 |         -0.33 |     -0.34 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1951 |         -0.15 |     -0.16 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1952 |         -0.08 |     -0.09 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1953 |         -0.25 |     -0.26 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1954 |         -0.10 |     -0.12 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1955 |         -0.14 |     -0.15 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1956 |         -0.01 |     -0.03 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1957 |         -0.10 |     -0.11 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1958 |         -0.01 |     -0.02 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1959 |         -0.09 |     -0.10 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1960 |          0.02 |      0.01 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1961 |          0.12 |      0.11 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1962 |          0.02 |      0.01 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1963 |         -0.14 |     -0.15 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1964 |         -0.11 |     -0.12 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1965 |          0.05 |      0.04 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1966 |          0.04 |      0.03 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1967 |         -0.10 |     -0.11 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1968 |         -0.06 |     -0.07 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1969 |          0.08 |      0.07 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1970 |          0.05 |      0.04 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1971 |         -0.14 |     -0.16 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1972 |         -0.05 |     -0.07 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1973 |         -0.08 |     -0.09 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1974 |          0.00 |     -0.01 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1975 |         -0.07 |     -0.08 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1976 |          0.03 |      0.01 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1977 |          0.05 |      0.04 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1978 |         -0.02 |     -0.04 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1979 |          0.07 |      0.06 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1980 |          0.07 |      0.06 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1981 |          0.04 |      0.03 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1982 |         -0.03 |     -0.04 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1983 |         -0.13 |     -0.14 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1984 |          0.01 |      0.00 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1985 |         -0.02 |     -0.03 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1986 |          0.00 |     -0.02 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1987 |          0.11 |      0.09 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1988 |         -0.01 |     -0.02 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1989 |         -0.17 |     -0.19 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1990 |         -0.20 |     -0.22 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1991 |         -0.16 |     -0.17 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1992 |         -0.14 |     -0.16 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1993 |         -0.06 |     -0.08 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1994 |          0.04 |      0.03 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1995 |         -0.05 |     -0.07 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1996 |          0.00 |     -0.02 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 1997 |         -0.06 |     -0.07 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1998 |         -0.03 |     -0.04 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 1999 |         -0.09 |     -0.10 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 2000 |         -0.07 |     -0.09 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 2001 |         -0.03 |     -0.05 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 2002 |          0.11 |      0.10 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 2003 |         -0.09 |     -0.11 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 2004 |         -0.10 |     -0.12 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 2005 |         -0.18 |     -0.19 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 2006 |         -0.24 |     -0.26 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 2007 |         -0.26 |     -0.28 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 2008 |         -0.32 |     -0.34 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 2009 |         -0.24 |     -0.25 |  -0.01 |
    | GM    | 2010 |         -0.25 |     -0.27 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 2011 |         -0.23 |     -0.25 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 2012 |         -0.26 |     -0.28 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 2013 |         -0.25 |     -0.27 |  -0.02 |
    | GM    | 2014 |         -0.10 |     -0.16 |  -0.06 |
    | GM    | 2015 |          0.27 |      0.21 |  -0.06 |
    +-------+------+---------------+-----------+--------+
    295 rows in set (0.30 sec)
    

    Just a whole lot of cooling the past going on…

  8. E.M.Smith says:

    Hmmm…..

    I think I did this right:

    SELECT Y.abrev,AVG(S.mean4-S.mean3) AS "2015 Baseline",     
                   AVG(Y.mean4-Y.mean3) AS "Full Data",
           AVG((S.mean3-S.mean4)-(Y.mean3-Y.mean4)) AS "Change"
           FROM yrcastats AS Y
           INNER JOIN yrcastatsS AS S ON Y.year=S.year
           AND Y.abrev=S.abrev
           WHERE Y.year<2016
           GROUP BY Y.abrev
           ORDER BY Y.abrev
    ;
    

    So going one country at a time, and grouping them sorted by country,
    where the data is in the v3.3 date range,
    find the Average difference between v4 and v3 using each baseline,
    and the Average of the differences between them.

    So, that ought to give us 3 columns showing the change to the past, by country, for all of the countries, using baseline ending 2015, using “all data” to compute anomalies, and their difference. What do we get? Those countries where there is no v3.3 or no v4 data show up as NULL. The rest?

    +-------+---------------+-----------+-----------+
    | abrev | 2015 Baseline | Full Data | Change    |
    +-------+---------------+-----------+-----------+
    | AC    |          NULL |      NULL |      NULL |
    | AE    |     -0.416724 | -0.501207 | -0.084483 |
    | AF    |     -0.463953 | -0.592093 | -0.128140 |
    | AG    |     -0.023571 | -0.046429 | -0.022857 |
    | AJ    |     -0.171926 | -0.215037 | -0.043111 |
    | AL    |     -0.110238 | -0.118810 | -0.008571 |
    | AM    |     -0.138855 | -0.182366 | -0.043511 |
    | AO    |      0.058876 |  0.020674 | -0.038202 |
    | AQ    |     -0.008929 | -0.027679 | -0.018750 |
    | AR    |     -0.086500 | -0.098875 | -0.012375 |
    | AS    |     -0.053543 | -0.065600 | -0.012057 |
    | AU    |     -0.132088 | -0.144217 | -0.012129 |
    | AY    |     -0.062917 | -0.083750 | -0.020833 |
    | BA    |     -0.013069 | -0.070792 | -0.057723 |
    | BB    |     -0.028000 | -0.036400 | -0.008400 |
    | BC    |     -0.551207 | -0.583448 | -0.032241 |
    | BD    |     -0.018986 | -0.025725 | -0.006739 |
    | BE    |     -0.054153 | -0.067049 | -0.012896 |
    | BF    |     -0.022418 | -0.032941 | -0.010523 |
    | BG    |      0.023590 |  0.001453 | -0.022137 |
    | BH    |      0.059419 |  0.044070 | -0.015349 |
    | BK    |      0.052418 |  0.023297 | -0.029121 |
    | BL    |      0.074242 |  0.083030 |  0.008788 |
    | BM    |     -0.016532 | -0.012177 |  0.004355 |
    | BN    |     -0.024400 | -0.047200 | -0.022800 |
    | BO    |     -0.254741 | -0.301778 | -0.047037 |
    | BP    |     -0.060417 | -0.084375 | -0.023958 |
    | BR    |     -0.151862 | -0.164690 | -0.012828 |
    | BU    |     -0.148072 | -0.157229 | -0.009157 |
    | BX    |          NULL |      NULL |      NULL |
    | BY    |     -0.092000 | -0.092000 |  0.000000 |
    | CA    |     -0.078704 | -0.083333 | -0.004630 |
    | CB    |     -0.039091 | -0.056364 | -0.017273 |
    | CD    |      0.092353 |  0.073235 | -0.019118 |
    | CE    |     -0.025528 | -0.036832 | -0.011304 |
    | CF    |      0.014267 | -0.022400 | -0.036667 |
    | CG    |     -0.015161 | -0.042742 | -0.027581 |
    | CH    |     -0.154514 | -0.175886 | -0.021371 |
    | CI    |     -0.020194 | -0.030194 | -0.010000 |
    | CJ    |     -0.272667 | -0.313667 | -0.041000 |
    | CK    |     -0.013134 | -0.022537 | -0.009403 |
    | CM    |      0.096047 |  0.054070 | -0.041977 |
    | CN    |      0.107647 |  0.107647 |  0.000000 |
    | CO    |     -0.014667 | -0.027067 | -0.012400 |
    | CQ    |      0.005854 | -0.017317 | -0.023171 |
    | CS    |     -0.033151 | -0.033973 | -0.000822 |
    | CT    |      0.021111 |  0.005238 | -0.015873 |
    | CU    |     -0.034468 | -0.049858 | -0.015390 |
    | CV    |      0.056667 |  0.036852 | -0.019815 |
    | CW    |     -0.062525 | -0.072929 | -0.010404 |
    | CY    |      0.025952 |  0.021190 | -0.004762 |
    | DA    |     -0.102110 | -0.117661 | -0.015550 |
    | DJ    |      0.025306 |  0.025306 |  0.000000 |
    | DO    |          NULL |      NULL |      NULL |
    | DR    |     -0.195789 | -0.215614 | -0.019825 |
    | EC    |      0.040254 |  0.025339 | -0.014915 |
    | EG    |     -0.106463 | -0.122993 | -0.016531 |
    | EI    |     -0.023005 | -0.028962 | -0.005956 |
    | EK    |          NULL |      NULL |      NULL |
    | EN    |     -0.264898 | -0.293061 | -0.028163 |
    | ER    |     -0.233607 | -0.233607 |  0.000000 |
    | ES    |     -0.139663 | -0.152022 | -0.012360 |
    | ET    |     -0.040988 | -0.060494 | -0.019506 |
    | EU    |          NULL |      NULL |      NULL |
    | EZ    |     -0.209793 | -0.229959 | -0.020166 |
    | FG    |      0.074022 |  0.049457 | -0.024565 |
    | FI    |      0.003750 | -0.022750 | -0.026500 |
    | FJ    |     -0.023263 | -0.034737 | -0.011474 |
    | FK    |     -0.006180 | -0.006292 | -0.000112 |
    | FM    |      0.019000 |  0.006111 | -0.012889 |
    | FP    |      0.005556 | -0.009383 | -0.014938 |
    | FR    |     -0.083436 | -0.097838 | -0.014402 |
    | FS    |     -0.035000 | -0.069219 | -0.034219 |
    | GA    |     -0.153380 | -0.151831 |  0.001549 |
    | GB    |     -0.078235 | -0.090588 | -0.012353 |
    | GG    |     -0.137895 | -0.156579 | -0.018684 |
    | GH    |      0.006975 | -0.022773 | -0.029748 |
    | GI    |     -0.019931 | -0.028897 | -0.008966 |
    | GJ    |      0.014444 |  0.014444 |  0.000000 |
    | GK    |          NULL |      NULL |      NULL |
    | GL    |     -0.103400 | -0.123733 | -0.020333 |
    | GM    |     -0.095254 | -0.114373 | -0.019119 |
    | GP    |     -0.309634 | -0.319634 | -0.010000 |
    | GQ    |     -0.195102 | -0.220408 | -0.025306 |
    | GR    |      0.009241 |  0.000633 | -0.008608 |
    | GT    |     -0.006974 | -0.006974 |  0.000000 |
    | GV    |      0.048769 |  0.043385 | -0.005385 |
    | GY    |      0.063307 |  0.045591 | -0.017717 |
    | HA    |     -0.012530 | -0.012530 |  0.000000 |
    | HK    |          NULL |      NULL |      NULL |
    | HO    |     -0.061290 | -0.070538 | -0.009247 |
    | HR    |     -0.120764 | -0.129873 | -0.009108 |
    | HU    |     -0.119915 | -0.134534 | -0.014619 |
    | IC    |     -0.077588 | -0.100000 | -0.022412 |
    | ID    |     -0.063133 | -0.083867 | -0.020733 |
    | IM    |          NULL |      NULL |      NULL |
    | IN    |      0.007389 | -0.007438 | -0.014828 |
    | IO    |     -0.024681 | -0.024681 |  0.000000 |
    | IR    |     -0.085224 | -0.123657 | -0.038433 |
    | IS    |     -0.130516 | -0.148323 | -0.017806 |
    | IT    |     -0.153954 | -0.158517 | -0.004563 |
    | IV    |     -0.015733 | -0.040000 | -0.024267 |
    | IZ    |     -0.001720 | -0.008172 | -0.006452 |
    | JA    |     -0.154803 | -0.177171 | -0.022368 |
    | JE    |          NULL |      NULL |      NULL |
    | JM    |      0.099894 |  0.074574 | -0.025319 |
    | JN    |          NULL |      NULL |      NULL |
    | JO    |     -0.131828 | -0.156022 | -0.024194 |
    | JQ    |     -0.020000 | -0.020000 |  0.000000 |
    | JU    |          NULL |      NULL |      NULL |
    | KE    |     -0.098125 | -0.112232 | -0.014107 |
    | KG    |     -0.132231 | -0.147615 | -0.015385 |
    | KN    |     -0.124713 | -0.139770 | -0.015057 |
    | KR    |     -0.038542 | -0.042396 | -0.003854 |
    | KS    |     -0.120268 | -0.141875 | -0.021607 |
    | KT    |     -0.023623 | -0.007101 |  0.016522 |
    | KU    |     -0.011818 | -0.062727 | -0.050909 |
    | KZ    |          NULL | -0.206102 |      NULL |
    | LA    |     -0.080282 | -0.121549 | -0.041268 |
    | LE    |      0.002963 |  0.002593 | -0.000370 |
    | LG    |     -0.195735 | -0.219118 | -0.023382 |
    | LH    |     -0.103096 | -0.124393 | -0.021297 |
    | LI    |      0.058276 |  0.049483 | -0.008793 |
    | LO    |     -0.251475 | -0.271148 | -0.019672 |
    | LS    |          NULL |      NULL |      NULL |
    | LT    |     -0.123000 | -0.123000 |  0.000000 |
    | LU    |     -0.044769 | -0.097846 | -0.053077 |
    | LY    |     -0.071311 | -0.083689 | -0.012377 |
    | MA    |     -0.076557 | -0.084754 | -0.008197 |
    | MB    |     -0.037822 | -0.061386 | -0.023564 |
    | MC    |     -0.105192 | -0.147500 | -0.042308 |
    | MD    |     -0.139432 | -0.181648 | -0.042216 |
    | MF    |     -0.002581 | -0.044516 | -0.041935 |
    | MG    |     -0.329151 | -0.367453 | -0.038302 |
    | MH    |          NULL |      NULL |      NULL |
    | MI    |     -0.079273 | -0.090636 | -0.011364 |
    | MJ    |     -0.193710 | -0.262581 | -0.068871 |
    | MK    |     -0.112623 | -0.123443 | -0.010820 |
    | ML    |     -0.078174 | -0.097217 | -0.019043 |
    | MO    |     -0.089063 | -0.101875 | -0.012813 |
    | MP    |     -0.006038 | -0.029528 | -0.023491 |
    | MQ    |          NULL |      NULL |      NULL |
    | MR    |     -0.005067 | -0.021333 | -0.016267 |
    | MT    |     -0.028981 | -0.043057 | -0.014076 |
    | MU    |     -0.087077 | -0.136769 | -0.049692 |
    | MV    |          NULL |      NULL |      NULL |
    | MX    |      0.006377 | -0.007101 | -0.013478 |
    | MY    |     -0.089417 | -0.111583 | -0.022167 |
    | MZ    |      0.041619 |  0.019333 | -0.022286 |
    | NC    |     -0.079067 | -0.090800 | -0.011733 |
    | NE    |     -0.001970 | -0.001970 |  0.000000 |
    | NF    |     -0.001979 | -0.027708 | -0.025729 |
    | NG    |     -0.038133 | -0.064267 | -0.026133 |
    | NH    |     -0.270323 | -0.308387 | -0.038065 |
    | NI    |     -0.028868 | -0.037642 | -0.008774 |
    | NL    |     -0.054742 | -0.070645 | -0.015903 |
    | NO    |     -0.077922 | -0.092118 | -0.014196 |
    | NP    |      0.071385 |  0.056000 | -0.015385 |
    | NR    |     -0.384828 | -0.384828 |  0.000000 |
    | NS    |      0.075059 |  0.054706 | -0.020353 |
    | NT    |      0.008769 | -0.006308 | -0.015077 |
    | NU    |      0.129516 |  0.091774 | -0.037742 |
    | NZ    |     -0.070066 | -0.083224 | -0.013158 |
    | PA    |     -0.092051 | -0.112650 | -0.020598 |
    | PC    |     -0.017200 | -0.017200 |  0.000000 |
    | PE    |     -0.089882 | -0.106471 | -0.016588 |
    | PK    |      0.009071 | -0.009929 | -0.019000 |
    | PL    |     -0.057257 | -0.069409 | -0.012152 |
    | PM    |      0.002025 |  0.002025 |  0.000000 |
    | PO    |     -0.059753 | -0.072531 | -0.012778 |
    | PP    |     -0.054731 | -0.061613 | -0.006882 |
    | PS    |     -0.070920 | -0.133678 | -0.062759 |
    | PU    |     -0.423158 | -0.457368 | -0.034211 |
    | QA    |     -0.209792 | -0.290625 | -0.080833 |
    | RE    |     -0.000635 | -0.027143 | -0.026508 |
    | RI    |     -0.208291 | -0.236325 | -0.028034 |
    | RM    |      0.019143 |  0.001429 | -0.017714 |
    | RO    |     -0.095650 | -0.111695 | -0.016045 |
    | RP    |     -0.009360 | -0.018480 | -0.009120 |
    | RQ    |     -0.138547 | -0.145299 | -0.006752 |
    | RS    |          NULL | -0.125019 |      NULL |
    | RW    |          NULL |      NULL |      NULL |
    | SA    |     -0.105000 | -0.163889 | -0.058889 |
    | SB    |     -0.151852 | -0.165556 | -0.013704 |
    | SC    |      0.000000 |  0.000000 |  0.000000 |
    | SE    |      0.016281 |  0.011736 | -0.004545 |
    | SF    |     -0.084088 | -0.094088 | -0.010000 |
    | SG    |     -0.149348 | -0.178986 | -0.029638 |
    | SH    |          NULL |      NULL |      NULL |
    | SI    |     -0.085370 | -0.126296 | -0.040926 |
    | SL    |     -0.103333 | -0.108699 | -0.005366 |
    | SN    |      0.004138 | -0.009138 | -0.013276 |
    | SO    |      0.035139 |  0.035139 |  0.000000 |
    | SP    |     -0.110455 | -0.137898 | -0.027443 |
    | SU    |     -0.103739 | -0.132087 | -0.028348 |
    | SV    |          NULL |      NULL |      NULL |
    | SW    |     -0.223105 | -0.241913 | -0.018809 |
    | SX    |     -0.262316 | -0.295895 | -0.033579 |
    | SY    |     -0.092615 | -0.130923 | -0.038308 |
    | SZ    |     -0.176046 | -0.188935 | -0.012890 |
    | TD    |     -0.037077 | -0.053769 | -0.016692 |
    | TE    |     -0.027273 | -0.068545 | -0.041273 |
    | TH    |     -0.060164 | -0.076475 | -0.016311 |
    | TI    |     -0.013089 | -0.010488 |  0.002602 |
    | TL    |      0.300750 |  0.300750 |  0.000000 |
    | TN    |     -0.101250 | -0.101250 |  0.000000 |
    | TO    |     -0.016000 | -0.061385 | -0.045385 |
    | TP    |      0.004821 |  0.004821 |  0.000000 |
    | TS    |     -0.048898 | -0.066772 | -0.017874 |
    | TT    |          NULL |      NULL |      NULL |
    | TU    |     -0.027337 | -0.050355 | -0.023018 |
    | TV    |     -0.002125 | -0.012000 | -0.009875 |
    | TW    |     -0.104348 | -0.104348 |  0.000000 |
    | TX    |     -0.154060 | -0.193308 | -0.039248 |
    | TZ    |     -0.018496 |  0.026090 |  0.044586 |
    | UG    |     -0.086667 | -0.086667 |  0.000000 |
    | UK    |     -0.062648 | -0.067154 | -0.004506 |
    | UP    |     -0.171779 | -0.199327 | -0.027548 |
    | US    |      0.000000 | -0.014338 | -0.014338 |
    | UV    |      0.022800 |  0.001067 | -0.021733 |
    | UY    |      0.006098 | -0.004390 | -0.010488 |
    | UZ    |     -0.088296 | -0.115481 | -0.027185 |
    | VC    |          NULL |      NULL |      NULL |
    | VE    |     -0.281280 | -0.292720 | -0.011440 |
    | VM    |     -0.066822 | -0.087477 | -0.020654 |
    | VQ    |     -0.041068 | -0.043786 | -0.002718 |
    | WA    |      0.023855 | -0.009880 | -0.033735 |
    | WF    |      0.018571 |  0.003968 | -0.014603 |
    | WI    |     -0.143273 | -0.169091 | -0.025818 |
    | WQ    |     -0.060806 | -0.073387 | -0.012581 |
    | WS    |     -0.006381 | -0.006381 |  0.000000 |
    | WZ    |          NULL |      NULL |      NULL |
    | XX    |          NULL |      NULL |      NULL |
    | YM    |      0.040805 |  0.040805 |  0.000000 |
    | ZA    |     -0.002609 | -0.006957 | -0.004348 |
    | ZI    |      0.025526 |  0.017982 | -0.007544 |
    +-------+---------------+-----------+-----------+
    236 rows in set (0.94 sec)
    

    Isn’t it odd that so many countries have their past cool down, by either means, but not warm?

    SELECT AVG(S.mean4-S.mean3) AS "2015 Baseline",             
                   AVG(Y.mean4-Y.mean3) AS "Full Data",
           AVG((S.mean3-S.mean4)-(Y.mean3-Y.mean4)) AS "Change"
           FROM yrcastats AS Y
           INNER JOIN yrcastatsS AS S ON Y.year=S.year
           AND Y.abrev=S.abrev
           WHERE Y.year<2016
    ;
    

    givess:

    +---------------+-----------+-----------+
    | 2015 Baseline | Full Data | Change    |
    +---------------+-----------+-----------+
    |     -0.072302 | -0.091092 | -0.017556 |
    +---------------+-----------+-----------+
    1 row in set (0.40 sec)
    

    So almost 1/10 C of cooling the past prior to 2015 over all years and all countries and all data. Before one even starts to consider things like change of station location, newer data being biased hotter, prior “cool the past” in the v1 to v2 to v3 changes (that happened…) and the bias in the “Baseline Period” used by Hadley & GISS and And AND….

    JUST in the change of the historical data from v3.3 to v4.

    So do something like that 5 times, you have your 1/2 C of “Global Warming”…. Before we even look at things like how homogenizing and grid / cell averaging can give some stations more “clout” than other in setting a grid / cell value.

    Interesting to note that the farther back into the historical records, the more it cools… Looking only at the data after 1850 (as early data isn’t used by GISS / Hadley) and cutting off at the point where they start loading up the “Baseline Period” with lots of other station data

    SELECT AVG(S.mean4-S.mean3) AS "2015 Baseline",             
                   AVG(Y.mean4-Y.mean3) AS "Full Data",
           AVG((S.mean3-S.mean4)-(Y.mean3-Y.mean4)) AS "Change"
           FROM yrcastats AS Y
           INNER JOIN yrcastatsS AS S ON Y.year=S.year
           AND Y.abrev=S.abrev
           WHERE Y.year>1850 AND Y.year<1950
    ;
    

    It’s a full 1/10 C cooled:

    +---------------+-----------+-----------+
    | 2015 Baseline | Full Data | Change    |
    +---------------+-----------+-----------+
    |     -0.088134 | -0.101986 | -0.011961 |
    +---------------+-----------+-----------+
    1 row in set (0.00 sec)
    

    Over all that “historic” data where there ought not be any opportunities to go find a lot of new thermometers or ???

    That’s pretty pure “change of history”.

    I need to do some more breaking out of that gross number. The regional distribution matters as does temporal distribution. Focus the change in key places and times, it has more effect on things like homogenizing and baseline biases.

    I also now see that I really need to at least get v2 data into the mix. This “cool the past to warm the present” is 1/10 C and happened just 4 years ago. That’s 1/4 C per decade of added trend. So comparing v2 (and maybe v1) might well show similar additions. IF the Data Diddle is adding up to something like 1/2 C over the last 25 years, well, there’s ALL your “Global Warming”.

    Oh, and remember, this is ALL before you get into the Adjusting The Data that also adds a bunch of “only ever warmer” changes…

  9. E.M.Smith says:

    This is another interesting one…. ( I think I’m just starting to understand the real utility of this analysis database I’ve designed….)

    Let’s look at the average “Global Anomaly” by year, shall we? We’ve been told that if this goes to +0.5 C we are all doomed, Doomed I Say!, DOOOMED!!!!!

    So what’s it been?

    First, in v4, we run this little sql program:

    SELECT year, AVG(deg_C) 
    FROM anomS4 
    GROUP BY year 
    ORDER BY year;
    

    That says to go to the table anomS4, that contains annual anomalies calculated from the v4 data set, and average them up, by year.

    It is 319 lines, so I’ll need to leave some out:

    The Little Ice Age is still there, sort of; though I note that it was 0.27 C “hotter” 1711 and in 1822 it was 1 C hotter. That likely explains some of the historical records of warmer season plants being grown in Sweden…

    +------+------------+
    | year | AVG(deg_C) |
    +------+------------+
    | 1701 |  -1.812857 |
    | 1702 |  -2.188333 |
    | 1703 |  -1.613333 |
    | 1704 |  -1.531250 |
    | 1705 |  -2.285556 |
    | 1706 |  -0.794167 |
    | 1707 |  -0.940000 |
    | 1708 |  -1.265000 |
    | 1709 |  -2.023333 |
    | 1710 |  -0.220625 |
    | 1711 |   0.275000 |
    | 1712 |   0.191667 |
    | 1713 |  -0.408333 |
    | 1714 |   0.200000 |
    [...]
    | 1810 |  -0.346714 |
    | 1811 |   0.714841 |
    | 1812 |  -1.327493 |
    | 1813 |  -0.496045 |
    | 1814 |  -1.138561 |
    | 1815 |  -0.609080 |
    | 1816 |  -1.300264 |
    | 1817 |  -0.363840 |
    | 1818 |   0.244276 |
    | 1819 |   0.330280 |
    | 1820 |  -0.470498 |
    | 1821 |   0.101252 |
    | 1822 |   1.085004 |
    | 1823 |  -0.394668 |
    | 1824 |   0.342375 |
    | 1825 |   0.419762 |
    | 1826 |   0.443693 |
    | 1827 |   0.147627 |
    | 1828 |   0.428108 |
    

    1816, or “1800 and froze to death”, has been muted some but is still pretty cold. Yet 1828 is plus 0.428 C and nobody seems to think we all died then…

    The known very hot 1930s and early 40s have become relatively mild, though 1931, 1934 and 1938 are still hot…

     1930 |   0.141734 |
    | 1931 |   0.600437 |
    | 1932 |  -0.025105 |
    | 1933 |   0.150073 |
    | 1934 |   0.595889 |
    | 1935 |  -0.158491 |
    | 1936 |  -0.043103 |
    | 1937 |  -0.075784 |
    | 1938 |   0.527057 |
    | 1939 |   0.397964 |
    | 1940 |  -0.159102 |
    | 1941 |   0.200686 |
    | 1942 |  -0.049169 |
    | 1943 |  -0.008554 |
    

    Then, look at that, in the 1970s it was a bit cool… But, very oddly, the “scorching hot ’80s and ’90s” when we were all being told we were going to die from Global Warming in 12 years are now not very warm at all, really.

    | 1976 |  -0.481360 |
    | 1977 |   0.026948 |
    | 1978 |  -0.495465 |
    | 1979 |  -0.381554 |
    | 1980 |  -0.196664 |
    | 1981 |   0.211195 |
    | 1982 |  -0.275705 |
    | 1983 |   0.098395 |
    | 1984 |  -0.208024 |
    | 1985 |  -0.564858 |
    | 1986 |   0.031904 |
    | 1987 |   0.137697 |
    | 1988 |   0.145873 |
    | 1989 |  -0.024211 |
    | 1990 |   0.493482 |
    | 1991 |   0.231047 |
    | 1992 |   0.043237 |
    | 1993 |  -0.392794 |
    | 1994 |   0.185461 |
    | 1995 |   0.161079 |
    | 1996 |  -0.448353 |
    | 1997 |   0.024239 |
    | 1998 |   0.638340 |
    | 1999 |   0.499235 |
    

    Then this interesting set: We hit +1 C in 2016. Who knew? But 2008 and 2009 are nearly average:

    | 2000 |   0.313770 |
    | 2001 |   0.424217 |
    | 2002 |   0.365171 |
    | 2003 |   0.323736 |
    | 2004 |   0.254108 |
    | 2005 |   0.458805 |
    | 2006 |   0.646378 |
    | 2007 |   0.571475 |
    | 2008 |   0.073763 |
    | 2009 |   0.060676 |
    | 2010 |   0.178631 |
    | 2011 |   0.313101 |
    | 2012 |   0.779688 |
    | 2013 |   0.167189 |
    | 2014 |   0.244872 |
    | 2015 |   0.890643 |
    | 2016 |   1.018951 |
    | 2017 |   0.809199 |
    | 2018 |   0.521057 |
    | 2019 |   0.146266 |
    +------+------------+
    319 rows in set (1 min 57.74 sec)
    

    But what do we get from the same years in anom3? Well, for starters, 1997 was not warm, it was normal. 2008 and 2009 were somewhat warm about about + 1/5 C and then

    | 1997 |   0.060230 |
    | 1998 |   0.834144 |
    | 1999 |   0.570223 |
    | 2000 |   0.289819 |
    | 2001 |   0.511251 |
    | 2002 |   0.462370 |
    | 2003 |   0.328329 |
    | 2004 |   0.353573 |
    | 2005 |   0.516534 |
    | 2006 |   0.722257 |
    | 2007 |   0.629942 |
    | 2008 |   0.183977 |
    | 2009 |   0.218250 |
    | 2010 |   0.450352 |
    | 2011 |   0.412252 |
    | 2012 |   0.902101 |
    | 2013 |   0.264318 |
    | 2014 |   0.345934 |
    | 2015 |   0.646746 |
    +------+------------+
    315 rows in set (36.07 sec)
    

    Strange that…

  10. CoRev says:

    Bet’cha can’t find the el Nino years in the 1997 to 2015 data. /sarc

  11. OldUnixHead says:

    Any reason the anomaly comparison columns for countries SC and US, above should have 0.000000 results? Seems a bit odd.

  12. Another Ian says:

    Read and spread

  13. Bill in Oz says:

    E M What does LG stand for ? The first spreadsheet you put up a list of years for LG..But you don’t tell us what LG means.

    I’m not a computer bloke. This is all wel beyond my level of interest …

    But one thing is clear to me : garbage in = garbage out. Most of us know this intuitively. But folks in the computer field use the general population’s ignorance/disinterest in the intricacies of computers to mask that GI=GO fact.

    Now having established this with you methodology, you have the issue of what to do with it all.

  14. Bill in Oz says:

    I want to throw in a different perspective on this ‘climate change’ stuff.
    1 We live in a unique time in the biological history of the planet.
    2 : One species, humans, has mastered the ability to concentrate & use energy ( from coal, oil, nuclear, wind, solar etc ) in the places where it lives – towns and cities.
    3 That species, us humans has also grown in numbers from maybe 200 million scattered over the planet to over 7 billion people concentrated in almost all in 3-400 huge cities and lots of smaller towns. And al of these huge cities and towns use huge amounts of energy..
    4: All that energy after being used, leads to HEAT which is dumped into the atmosphere of these cities and towns.
    5 And all that HEAT being dumped into the atmosphere, shows up in the temperature measurements being made in weather stations across the planet. And most of these are in the huge cities and in towns.

    Is this global warming ? Well, sort of. It’s certainly spread across a lot of the planet’s surface.
    But NO IT IS NOT GLOBAL WARMING as usually presented.

    And it is NOTHING to do with CO2 levels in the atmosphere.
    Measuring temperatures in the place where we humans do not live will show this up pretty clearly. Places like MacQuarie Island in the Southern Ocean South of Australia. or St Helena Island in the Mid Atlantic.. etc.

  15. Bill in Oz says:

    7 Billion people ( 700000000 humans )and more with all of us using the atmosphere as a HEAT SINK

    No wonder that many thermometers register a rise in local temperatures.

    But is it CO2 ?
    Bugger NO !

  16. beththeserf says:

    ‘ OTOH, finding the “smoking gun” might be more useful…’ Serf barracking from the sidelines, (easy ter do that,) favours the smoking gun. )

  17. A C Osborn says:

    Bill in Oz, no it is not CO2 and this guy over at WUWT shows why.
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/06/07/latest-global-temp-anomaly-may-19-0-32c-a-simple-no-greenhouse-effect-model-of-day-night-temperatures-at-different-latitudes/#comment-2720511

    The poster Eddie Banner discusses Photon Energy, something that I have been asking Climastrologists about for a long time, especially compared to Solar Radiation.
    His points, if correct totally demolish the idea that CO2 can provide any meaningful energy whatsoever.

  18. A C Osborn says:

    E.M.Smith says: 10 June 2019 at 9:06 pm ” Well, for starters, 1997 was not warm,” & “Strange that…”
    Yes how very odd, especially considering that at the time 1997 was the hottest year of the that Century and was then superceded by 1998.
    That data is still just available, but will disappear after this year
    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/199713

  19. E.M.Smith says:

    @Bill in Oz:

    It is explained in the prior postings (and this was just a quick ‘tag on’) so if you look at the
    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2019/06/03/ghcn-v3-3-vs-v4-anomaly-graphs-europe/
    posting you will find a chart of country codes or abbreviations and what country they map to.
    LG Latvia
    GM Germany
    etc.

    I include it in the chart graphs and such as it is needed to search on a given country in the data and, well, it means I don’t have to go look it up again… So I have a main heading in the article of “LG Latvia” to connect the abbreviation to the name and the same thing in the graph and….

    BTW:

    That people in cities with their thermometers making heat: I’m certain you are right. It is usually shortened to UHI Urban Heat Island. I also like to point out how many thermometers are at airports where huge expanses of concrete, tarmac, buildings, and traffic raise the local temperature (as does the complete absence of trees…. pilots don’t like running in to trees…. and trees try to regulate their canopy temperature by evaporating tons of water).

    @Beththeserf:

    I think you are likely right.

    @A.C.Osbourn:

    I’ll take a look… but likely after the coffee soaks in ;-)

    Why will the data disappear after this year? (maybe I need to scrape again…)

    Yes, one of THE oddest things is just how the “Hottest Year Evah!!!!” when we were being told it was PROOF!!! and we were “ALL GOING TO DIE!!!!”… in the history re-writes becomes just another nearly average year, or sometimes even a cold anomaly.

    That alone argues for a whole lot of “Data Diddle” going on.

    I’m going to play around with this particular kind of report a bit more and see if there’s other interesting bits to find. They ought to show up in new postings. But probably only after I get that “index posting” into this set done…

    What is VERY clear is that the “anomaly” of any given year can easily change by 1/4 C to 1/2 C just based on the version of the ‘same’ data. In that context, all you can really say is that the data are crap and measure the data collection and manipulation choices more than any physical change in the planet.

    Look at 2010. In GHCN v3.3 it has a +0.45 C anomaly. ALMOST at that 1/2 C where we’re all supposed to be faced with permanent irreversible runaway climate change!!!! (AS WE WERE TOLD THEN). What is it in v4? +0.17 or essentially “normal”. So… if we were “normal” in 2010, doesn’t that make the present warm values ‘just weather’? Does that mean 2010 was NOT one in a long series of “hottest EVER!!!” years? Doesn’t that mean we did NOT warm from 1941 (+0.2 C) to date? So there is NO Global Warming?

    It just screams “Cooked Data” to me, IMHO. Which is “right”: v3.3 or v4? IF v3.3 was wrong, are not ALL the histrionics based on it for the prior years also wrong? And then, how can we know v4 is any better than v3.3 if v3.3 was “wrong” and the same folks then told us IT was just fine and perfect? Eh?

  20. A C Osborn says:

    E M, 1997 is the last in the Drop Down List to obtain data, so next year 1998 will be last.
    I wrote to the white house to ask if they could get the data preserved because you need to look at the Temperature they quoted as an Actual Temperature and not an Anomaly.
    It was “62.45 degrees Fahrenheit for 1997 was the warmest year on record, surpassing the previous record set in 1995 by 0.15 degrees Fahrenheit.”
    That is about 3 degrees F warmer than 2016.
    But of course they say that they have “changed the baseline” which is total BS.

  21. Simon Derricutt says:

    EM – seems like GHCN version 1 ought to be the least-diddled, though since they’re all “uncorrected” then they ought to be all the same for the same years/places with more data added. Yep, the changes between versions do cast doubt that V4 is any more truthful than V3.3 or earlier versions.

    Points I’ve picked up from your work so far is that you need to go back to the hand-written logs to get good data. Also that if the predictions of future climate are made using the current official data then (a) it’s going to cost a lot and (b) we’ll likely be preparing for the wrong eventuality. Judging from the long-term history, we’re going to enter an Ice Age fairly soon anyway (though likely not in our remaining lifetimes) and the only question for that is when, not if.

    So here I am, in Flaming June in the SW of France, wearing a jumper and wondering if a fire would be useful (I lit a fire last at the end of May, which was odd enough). In India, temperature up to almost 50°C, so I expect we’ll be told this is the hottest year evah. Strange thing is that most of the people I know both accept what they’re told and that reducing CO2 emissions (OK, Carbon emissions…) is really critical. Of course, since the BBC and F24 have at least one scare-story of climate-change or extinctions (because Climate Change) each day, I can’t persuade them to look at the data anyway. There’s some obvious things such as Doggerland now being Dogger Bank, and evidence that the Sahara used to be a savannah with monsoon rains around 5000 years ago, long before we started any major burning of fossil fuels.

    I remember well the summer of 1976. I’d just left college the year before and was breaking hard old concrete in the hot sun in the UK, building a pottery (long story), and getting through around a gallon of orange squash each day. ’75 was nicer (punts on the Cherwell river) but ’76 saw a water shortage (probably me drinking a lot of it) in the UK and endless hot sunny days. I’m pretty sure it was a hot year. In France, 2006 was a hot year, and around 10,000 people more died than usual that summer. Hasn’t been as hot since. Then again, global temperature is global and each of us can only be in one place at one time – kind of hard to say “I lived through that and so the data is wrong”, especially since I didn’t worry too much about what the thermometers said. In any case go into a shop selling thermometers and you find they disagree by at least a degree, so I don’t trust such uncalibrated indications.

    I think it really comes down to what grows and what doesn’t, rather than temperatures. Plants produce their own microclimates anyway. With enough rain (or stored water) and enough sun, the stuff will grow, and extra CO2 makes it grow better. If we used to grow vines up near Hadrian’s Wall in the UK, then obviously it was warmer then than now, and the sky didn’t fall.

  22. Bill in Oz says:

    E M thsnks for the note about ‘LG’. ( Latvia ) I’ll tell my mate Karlis that his part time homeland is now LG on the computer records .. Not sure what he will think. ;-)

    I’ve know about UHIE ( HIE ) etc for a while. But it is easy to miss it’s significance now as a ‘global’ phenomenon. And that is what I want to emphasise. It’s not just a few local effects.
    One thousand years ago humans as a species were far fewer in numbers. And our access to energy was extremely limited. And our impact on local temperatures was probably nil.
    Now we are over 7 billion & growing.
    And almost all of us have vastly increased access to energy in many different forms, ( LPG, gas, diesel, electricity, wood, coal, solar & wind etc ) compared to even 50-60 years ago.

    Using that energy inevitably leads to heat being released into the atmosphere wherever we live on the planet.

    This is an idea; a hypothesis. But there are ways of establishing whether it is right or wrong. Just by examining the temperature records of place with very low populations and seeing if there has been any change there over the past few decades. No or minimal change ? That means CO2 as a global weather forcer ain’t working.

    But humans as a global weather forcer ? That is more probable.

  23. Bill in Oz says:

    One way of seeing this is this composite image of the earth from space at night. It shows the extent & density of human cities on the Earth. And that is where we are releasing heat into the atmosphere from our abundant use of energy.
    https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/earthday/gall_earth_night.html

  24. Another Ian says:

    E.M. FYI

    “Separating Truth and Misinformation in U.S. Climate Data (Guest: Bob Tisdale)”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/06/13/separating-truth-and-misinformation-in-u-s-climate-data-guest-bob-tisdale/

  25. E.M.Smith says:

    @Bill In Oz:

    It is important to note that the “thermometer density” per square km is directly proportional to the light intensity… Just sayin’…. We measure where we live and make heat.

  26. Bill in Oz says:

    That is why I posted that image of the Earth here EM…
    Exactly !

  27. Pingback: GHCN v3.3 vs v4 – Top Level Entry Point | Musings from the Chiefio

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