W.O.O.D. – 8 June 2019


This is another of the W.O.O.D. series of semi-regular
Weekly Occasional Open Discussions.
(i.e. if I forget and skip one, no big)

Immediate prior one here:

and remains open for threads running there (at least until the ‘several month’ auto-close of comments on stale threads).

Canonical list of old ones here:

So use “Tips” for “Oooh, look at the interesting ponder thing!”
and “W.O.O.D” for “Did you see what just happened?! What did you think about it?”

What’s Going On?

I finished the GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Europe graphs; and with that, ALL of the continents are done!

I’m now working on an “index posting” to point at all the parts from one spot. I’ve also started making a Version 4 Statistics & Anomalies set of data based on cutting off the anomalies data used at 2015 so that the same years are used for v3.3 as for v4. Then I’m going to do a few “spot check” graphs to see what changes. This is substantially using a “Baseline Period” that runs from the start of all records through 2015 and addresses the point that the existing method will have the v4 anomalies shift a little just from averaging in the 2016, 2017, and 2018 data (to the extent they differ from the average prior years).

I’ve already made the table layouts, loaded the mstatsS4 (S for Short) table, and presently it’s computing the anomS4 anomailies table. Then it’s just make a few sample graphs and compare / measure impact. (Plus debugging whatever pops up).

W.W.II D-Day

We’ve likely had the last D-Day Commemoration that will have many living survivors present. Likely, too, the last for Queen Elizabeth.

There can never again bee such a landing. Too easy to just pop a nuke over the top of it and sink all the ships. Given the number who died, perhaps that’s a good thing.

My wife’s Dad was a liaison to the British Gliders and went in on one of them as the US contact for the 101st Airborn. Then wandered around with them a while. Eventually got in that Bastogne Siege… He also managed to get separated from his army, and got reassigned to the 82nd Airborne and jumped on Arnham. Not a lot of folks can say they were in W.W.II in Gliders, as a Parachute drop, and in three different services ;-) though one was just liaison to that service. He said Bastogne was rough, but liberating the prisoner camps was the worst emotionally. Oddly, he met Marlene Dietrich while in the field. Seems she worked both sides of the lines entertaining both sets of warriors. A class act in a time when chivalry was not quite dead yet. Just a passing stop on a road, a few minutes of posing and then moving on. Two jeeps passing on a rural road.

My Dad was a Combat Engineer. Landed the 2nd or 3rd day (he wasn’t sure what day it was ;-) in an LST on Utah beach I believe. One of those big ships where the front opens. He then proceeded to drive around Europe in a “Deuce and 1/2” truck blowing up bridges and things, re-building bridges the Germans blew up, taking up land mines, laying land mines, disarming booby traps and more. Rebuilt a chunk of Cherbourg Harbor. He said one of the hardest bits was having your whole army behind you, and their whole army in front of you, and you have to build a bridge in the middle. Then there was when you had to take the demolition charges off of it if they failed to get it blown during retreat. The Marines like to talk about “first in last out”, but the guy building the bridge in front is really there first, and the guy blowing up the bridge after you crossed it is the last one to pack up.

I’ve plotted their two paths, roughly, and they were more or less near each other over most of the war. Airborne out in front some of the time, Dad out in front making them a bridge at other times.

May no one ever deal with such a thing again.

BREXIT, The EU, and MEP Elections

The BREXIT party was the Big Winner. The new European Parliament will also have lots more “Nationalist” membership from many other countries.

Watching the “news” coverage was fun. So many Globalists sputtering in their rush to decry it as horrid.

Gee, national leaders charged with making their nation better being elected by the people of that nation who then don’t throw their nation under the wheels of Rampant Globalist Ambitions, and this is seen as a bad thing?

T. May is now out, Britain is trying to decide who is worth a fig when 99% of them just bleat about wanting to a) End Brexit or b) Have a 2nd referendum or c) get a Satrap Deal tighter than T.May’s bad “deal”.

This circus isn’t over. It’s a long long ways to Halloween…


“God Only Knows” continues.

Will it resolve? Will anyone notice?


Decided they didn’t want their Economy in the dumper all that much and that just maybe having a few hundred thousand “transient” “migrants” wasn’t working out all that well for them anyway. Now we get to see if they actually DO anything.

You know they will not stop the drug traffic. Way too many $Billions in their collective pockets. They also won’t want to stop Mexican Migrants (as they ship boatloads of money back to Mexico too). But I could see them shutting off the non-Mexicans.

France 24 had some dopey guy claiming all sorts of nonsense about what this would do to Trump’s election prospects. Very Globalist Sympathy, in touch with “Red States” not so much.

Global Warming Push

I’m not sure what is driving it, what is “coming up”; but both Sky News and France 24 have started having the Global Warming Scare Of The Day (“GW-SOD”) story. Seems it is going to dissolve Mont Blanc in France. France24 said so. Complete with dramatic film of a landslide and a voice over stating that the mountain is held together by permafrost and when it melts the mountain falls down.

No mention at all of ice cycling causing rock spalling, but hey, give them time.

Sky was treating us to a tour of Venice and how it’s just being washed away from “Sea Level Rise” with floods rising from 5 / decade to some huge number in the hundreds? Something like that. Of course, no mention that the city is built on soft land and has been sinking slowly for centuries. “Subsidence” not in their vocabulary.

So The Bum’s Rush is picking up speed and intensity. Just a reaction to the “Nationalists” winning? Or something else in the wings?

Speaking of Coups…

Dimocrats continue to push the Impeachment Screechment. TDS is strong in them.

I do hope Trump and the DOJ get some indictments running on a few of them soon. They really need a wake-up slap in the fixation.

Space X

NASA is selling rides and hotel accommodation on the Space Station. Up to a month. 12 a year. Just bring your $Millions vacation plan with wallet…

The Weather:

It has finally gotten warm in California and the rain stopped here. Unfortunately, Oregon is still having some frozen while the Mid-West is a soggy bog of water and mud. China, in their corn belt, is also having issues.

There is a very real probability of grain shortages globally. One report had a huge spike in corn and other grain futures. This is a “watch this space” as if delay goes much beyond what we’ve already got, it will be too little time to grow to maturity.

I did learn a new term: “Wet Planting”. Seems when you have Crop Insurance you only get paid if you put seeds in the ground. So when years are crappy and the land too wet too late, you just plant anyway and let the seeds drown and rot. Good for the wallet, not so good if we burn through too much of the seed corn when replacing it might be at risk too. Looks like the traditional thing of doing a fast “catch crop” (like buckwheat) instead is now out of fashion in favor of financial games and contract law.

One good thing, they had a chart up with “use” on it. Looked like about 1/3 went to gasoline. So… we can take a 1/3 loss of corn production and not even notice just by having an emergency wavier of the “pollute and dilute my gasoline with alcohol” requirements… The downside is that absent such relief, blenders alcohol could become quite expensive and drive up gasoline prices too.


I ought to get back into tracking markets more. They are about 80% machine trade driven now, so really it’s reflecting computer programs / decisions not human actions, so less reasonable in what happens and more prone to volatile runs from feedback effects. (One computer kicks off a minor trend and then the rest hop on it).

The chart formation is not good.

SPY 8 June 2019 1 Year

SPY 8 June 2019 1 Year

We took a big dip in January, then a straight rocket back up. When people drive things they more often get concerned about getting out with any recovery and you get a dip back to the Simple Moving Average stack. I’ve typically used that as a confirmation of a move. It looks like that is breaking down under machine trend amplification.

Now we’ve hit a top, same height as last September, and failed to advance. Then the much more typical penetrate the SMA stack to the downside, return to it from below, and fail to cross it.

MACD is below zero (though crossing to an upward pointing in response to the rebound). Volume is also falling off. (Notice how high volume went in the January dump).

ADX / DMI is showing low volatility (ADX black line low) along with somewhat confused red / blue lines (as happens at waffling tops). Looks to me like more downside available than upsides.

Yes, the economy is going great. Yes employment is nearly full. OTOH, we’re getting news about “low jobs report” for new jobs. When everyone who wants a job, has one, it becomes hard to have continuing massive job growth…

Will there be another dump like last January? Or just a summer malaise of waffling at the top? I’d bet on more down as the Dimocrats do something stoopid to spook the markets (like acting against Trump).

But the biggest problem is that we’ve now got to predict what a computer algorithm thinks of things, not what human nature would do… They mostly do near instant scans of the newspaper stories and jump on key words, so if you can predict what will be printed “soon”, you have a chance of it.

What is clear is that we’re reaching the limit of how fast the economy can grow, and that the market has hit a ceiling it didn’t like.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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147 Responses to W.O.O.D. – 8 June 2019

  1. Another Ian says:

    If you thought it can’t get worse than this just wait for tomorrow

    “It’s a tech-wreck: models now use human moods and fashions as a climate forcing”


  2. E.M.Smith says:

    Just so it doesn’t get lost in the transition, Larry L. has posted a comment here:
    that looks like Sessions, prior to his departure, dropped a criminal investigation on the head of Comey and others… So Jeff Sessions was not being idle…


    A plant report. I planted some Sneposai Hybrid greens:

    I’d mostly been interested as it says it grows to harvest in 30 days and as an emergency food that’s a feature. Well, it is just harvestable then, bigger at 40 and 50 days. FWIW, the ones I planted were not from Kitazawa Seed. I have a bunch of other things from them, and they are a great seed company (especially for harder to find Asian varieties).

    Well, Senposai does grow fast and relatively easy. Raw it has a vaguely green taste. Cooked it has nearly no taste at all… So it would go well in anything else that does provide some flavor, but alone as a “Pot Herb” or in a salad, not really… As it is intended to be used in spiced stir fry and similar dishes, I guess that makes sense.

    As it is a hybrid, seed saving will give you a bastard mix of God Only Knows what (until a few generations in and you “stabilize the cross” which takes a lot of work – basically enough of the genes need to ‘transpose’ onto other chromosomes that you no longer get them sorting back out. Doable, but a LOT of crosses and roguing out needed).

    So I’m not likely to keep growing this. I’d rather have one of the parents (a Choy like plant) that has some flavor ;-) I also like my cabbage / kale / collards cross more, though it is much slower to grow.

    So there you have it. Nice in spiced and flavored stuff as a neutral green, but as a fast crop in a prepper event, not going to be making you real happy with dinner… I have some horseradish leaves that are nicely flavored, so I’m going to try a pot of 1/2 & 1/2 and see if that’s a winner ;-)

  3. Larry Ledwick says:

    On the social trends item and climate, are they including Tulip bulb futures?

  4. Graeme No.3 says:

    Larry L:
    No, but South Sea Company shares might be offered.

  5. Graeme No.3 says:

    Giant red mustard leaf. Grows in the cold and wet. Plenty of ‘spicy’ taste although cooking reduces that somewhat. May be called Osaka purple or Japanese red mustard leaf.

  6. philjourdan says:

    Re: Mexico and Tariffs. The disinformation from the fake news crew is unbelievable. The narrative from them is that “Trump blinked” because he did not get all he was demanding. After 4 years, they STILL do not understand the art of the deal. Only idiots would think that Trump would get everything he was demanding! A deal is when everyone thinks they won something!

    The democrats are only 2 grey cells smarter, but still idiots. Their meme is that Trump was mean to our friends. It is no wonder none will ever be president. The first rule of leadership is that countries do not have friends. Just acquaintances with common goals at a point in time.

    It truly does take a very intelligent person to make his enemies come off as total morons. If that was all Trump was doing, electing him would have been well worth it!

  7. E.M.Smith says:


    I think they know and are just “lying for effect”. Everyone in DC politics does deals, and they know you ask for double what you want then “settle” for 1/2 of that ;-)

    @Graeme No3:

    Good idea. I think I have some kind of Indian Mustard leaf in the seed storage ( It was at Lowe’s in Florida and I’d never seen it before ;-) I like mustard….

    I raised some kind of Japanese? Mustard once and it was way hot. Less so when cooked…

    We have a lot of wild mustards that grow around here, but the leaves are pretty small and the plants make a lot more stem and flowers than leaf.

    Maybe when the present batch of things matures and I’m planting the next round….

    SIDEBAR On Hydroponics:

    So far it is working better than I’d expected. Best point is that I have to put an inch or so of water on the potted plants, but none on the hydroponics. The water savings is phenomenal.

    Worst point is that we got our first really hot day after I’d planted them out and some of the starts were just too small. Like sewing pin small. Couple of mm of leaf. So some of them did not survive the sudden move from indoors to full sun. About 80% did make it though, and are growing fast.

    It looks like at a minimum I’ve got a very effective way to grow lettuce and without the bug and snail problems from the dirt garden. Seems the snails can’t follow the turns of the box rim / top ;-)

    So “going forward” I’m putting my leaf vegetables in hydroponics (barring any sudden catastrophe). That will include choy and mustard and “whatever”. ( I’ve got some cilantro already started.) Also leaf herbs like basil, sage, oregano. At present my basil and rosemary are in the dirt and my sage and oregano were started in dirt pots, but I think I’m going to transplant some of the little starts to fill in the dud spots in the hydroponics bed.

    I’m really surprised at how easy this has been. I know part of it California weather not including rain so I don’t need to be doing it indoors or in a greenhouse to prevent rain dilution. And that the very low humidity and sunny heat causes a water demand issue in dirt gardens that this fixes for me. Problems not in places like “East of the Rockies”…

  8. Ossqss says:

    FWIW, I have been watching demand for these NVME drives for a while. Seems things are starting to finally get support. I got interested with a change out on a laptop with a 5400 rpm hard drive.

    W10 took about 1.5 minutes, on the HD. The NVME drive, less than 10 seconds to desktop. Needless to say, I wanted one!

    I do have the misfortune of having to replace my son’s PC as the MB dumped a Mosfet, and I am not gonna jump it with a fused wire. Too many unknowns aside from it powers up.

    Anyhow, my quest is on to buy a PC. What a jungle it is out there. However, one of my desires is to get a laptop that can support this new HD. Heck, a 250GB drive is around 60 bucks, and you can keep the drive that came with the unit for storage, since it is a different slot/spot. Some assembly required. ;-)

    Most importantly, my intent is to move the OS and boot from the new drive for obvious reasons. One must remember that Windows 10 (W10) is board dependent on authentication. If you buy a Samsung NVME drive, they have a simple migration tool for moving your OS to a new drive, but there are others too.

    So, here ya go for some easy reading!



    I have been eyeballing this one, for the record, after some research. Seems the general 8th Gen core i whatever don’t have the slot, and AMD Ryzen does. Gotta have the M.2 slot and support for a Bootable NVMe. All of them are not created equal.


    Oh well, I hope I didn’t bore most. ;-)

  9. Bill in Oz says:

    Japanese giant red mustard is easy and here will self seed every year. But yes a bit hot fresh. Definitely a stir fry leaf vegetable which lessons the heat considerably..

  10. michaelh says:

    I’m coming off lurk mode to ask a question. I hope this meets your requirements for a W.O.O.D. thread.

    Are you familiar with the Linksys Velop? It has some nice features for building a home wireless mesh network. My only holdback is that it seems pricey.

    This is the model that was recommended to me:

    I know there are other options out there. Google has a mesh wireless system that some people like. I don’t want to support or have to trust Google.

    The Velop also has a feature/service called Linksys SHIELD for setting up parental controls on various devices. It’s nice that the feature is integrated with the wireless system, though I had been considering using Disney Circle for that purpose before I knew the Velop had the capability integrated.

    * For home wireless networks, what are your thoughts about the options that are out there right now?
    * I know the Velops will work well for what I need. Do you think they are worth the money?
    * For protecting the kiddos, what are your thoughts on Linksys SHIELD, Disney Circle, or is there some other technology?

    Trying to make some decisions so any thoughts you have are appreciated.

  11. E.M.Smith says:


    You could always move away from Windows 10… Just sayin’…. Friends don’t let friends drive Windows… ;-)

    @Bill in Oz:

    Something that works in Oz usually is a good match to here, and I like things with some kick in them. Spouse doesn’t, so it’s also a good way to discourage “cross plate grazing’ ;-)

    IIRC the compound that causes the heat is supposed to have some medicinal effects too…

  12. Ossqss says:

    @EM, nothing to do with the OS. Pick the poison if you will. It is about performance,. Hardware is hardware in a CPU of any type.

  13. E.M.Smith says:


    I’m probably not the best to answer your questions as I’m not a user of “shield” like services. So just some general notes:

    1) Linksys generally makes good reliable gear. For network gear I generally buy Linksys or Netgear and don’t look back.

    2) The use of “Two 5 GHz bands” is an issue for me. You may have missed it, but I’ve turned off the 5 GHz on our telco supplied router (and turned the 2.5 GHz power down to about 25%) to improve our sleeping. The 5 GHz was definitely causing sleep disruption (antenna about 20 feet from the head of the bed). I’m moving in the direction of LESS WiFi signal inside the house and will transitioning more of my gear to wired connections while putting WiFi on a ‘time of day’ cycle. If you’ve not lived with 5 GHz in the home, might want a lower cost test case first.

    3) I really like mesh network tech. Were I doing one in the home I’d “roll my own” likely using Raspberry Pi or similar type SBC boards. I know, not for everyone…. IIRC the iPhone now has mesh ability built in. You can also get “range extender” repeaters. I’ve got a Linksys one for 2.5 GHz in my box of spares. Used to to get networking into a camping trailer in the driveway for a few years. I have trouble with the idea of spending $300 to get what amounts to a range extender added to the telco supplied WiFi router…. OTOH, if it saves you a few hours of set up, or lets you run a couple of TVs at the same time, or just gives you comfortable ease feelings, it’s cheap.

    4) NEVER trust Google. They exist by being information vampires and selling the blood… IMHO.

    5) I’ve never been much of a “shield” like user. The velop feature is an added price feature, but it didn’t state the price. You can configure a “shield” like DNS fairly easily in most DHCP configs.
    https://techlogon.com/using-free-opendns-family-shield-to-block-adult-content/ so I’d just point my telco router (and anything else that needed it set) at the OpenDNS family DNS and be done. I like to prevent using the telco DNS anyway as they are starting to get into the info selling business too. So I have a Raspberry Pi DNS server pointed at a list of selected upstream DNS. (Shortly to be moved onto an encrypted DNS lookup to further protect the information). Do you really need more than the OpenDNS features? (I’m pretty sure the Disney service will be hard locked down as Disney a) Has bright folks doing the work and b) would NOT want anyone to post a “look what my little Suzy saw on their ‘protected’ network” AwShit posting so will be very vigilant.). I grew up in a more or less “wild west” style. My kids were never overly shielded. We all turned out a lot better than those who were constantly being “protected”… no need to manage the ‘transition’ to reality. But there is a trend to things being worse now than 30 years ago, so now I’d likely use something like OpenDNS family.

    6) Do you know you need that area of coverage? Have you got a 3000 to 4000 sq.ft. home? Want coverage out to the end of the yard? I get the WiFi signals of a 1/2 dozen neighbors in my home (only a glass window in the way). That’s several hundred feet away in some cases… Just sayin’… Might want to just measure the juice your telco router is pumping into the WiFi signal… or check the settings. Mine is at 25% power and with 2 walls and book cases full of stuff in the way still has a 50 foot reach to the far TV. I’ve run it as low as 20%. (OTOH, my Florida Friend has a 4000 sq.ft. home and his WiFi does not cover all of it… so I know it happens.)

    So that’s my opinions. I’ve not bought any new WiFi / router gear in a bunch of years so don’t know much about the newest stuff. Last one was a Netgear home unit when a lightning strike killed my Linksys (that was at least a decade plus old) about 5 to 8 years back.

    Somewhere along the line I started using a WiFi dongle on small computers and just telling them to be routers for various expedient and lab type things. On one occasion used a WiFi Hot Spot from T-Mobile when the wired line telco crapped out my phone lines/network, then used a Raspberry Pi to route that into the home network for all my desktop gear. Ran that way for several days waiting on the telco… So now if I “need a WiFi Router” it is quicker to just build one from what is on my desk than to go shopping. Yeah, not typical ;-) But it isn’t that hard a skill set to learn and use.

    I’m also no fan of 5 GHz. We’ve had just enough “issues” from it to raise my worry level about what it is doing. Some of it was “blind tests” where I forgot to turn off the router at night and then the spouse had sleep issues. Then when I shut off the 5 GHz and cut back the 2.5 GHz, both of us got better sleep cycles. Realize I’m not paranoid about it. The Telco router is arms length from me at my office desk and I’ve not been motivated enough to relocate it. (On the “someday” list but not a priority). While I do feel a little more “foggy” when sitting next to it, I think that is mostly due to it being morning and me not having coffee yet ;-) It is likely folks have different reactions to EMF exposure, but the extant data are leaning towards “Has real issues” and not “no effect”; so I’m leaning toward “reduce exposure as much as possible”. (Just too lazy to do it…) Bringing in a full power tri-band with 2 x 5 GHz channels and two sources (so 6 total radiation bands x sources) is not a feature to me. Would have been 5 years ago, but not after my first 5 GHz experience.

    Hope that helps. It’s all my biases and bigotries included ;-)

  14. Larry Ledwick says:

    Gee surprise surprise evidence that sea level data has been manipulated just like the temperature data.

    I have wondered why historical beaches still appear much like they did decades ago if the sea is rapidly rising. Likewise how come hundred year old features with tide markings show little or no change in areas of the world not subject to crustal rebound from the ice age.

    Click to access sea-levels-sydney.pdf

  15. E.M.Smith says:

    I took a drive down the Florida Keys a half decade back. Stopped on random keys to dip my toes in the water. Several had a “wave cut terrace” layer about 2 feet above present sea level. Some a little higher.

    This is all fairly soft consolidated beach sand or limestone. Had it been exposed since the last interglacial, it would be eroded away. No, this was from a few thousand years ago…and the Keys are not undergoing geological uplift.

    Then there’s the Roman Antica port city that’s now a few kilometers inland… and the Turkish “port” where they just excavated an ancient boat (that is now dry land…) and many more. (Including a castle somewhere in the UK / Ireland islands that had a wall built to the sea… that now ends a good ways short of the sea…)

    It is very clear that sea levels were HIGHER a few thousand years ago. It is obvious that they will be a few hundred feet lower in a dozen or two thousand more years as the Ice Age Glacial returns. That makes anything in between a “short term oscillation” in geologic terms.

    We have no influence on sea level. We can’t change it and we can’t stop it and it will change at will. Worse, geologic processes dominate anyway. Alviso (near San Jose) was where Liberty Ships were launched in W.W. II and it is now a landlocked town with a reed bed where the yacht harbor was when I first moved here. A few more years that reed bed will be land (like the places around it that were not dredged for yachts…)

    Boston has expanded into the harbor:

    as has San Francisco and several other harbor cities.

    San Francisco Airport has NOT had to raise the runways (that are barely above bay level…)

    There is no sea level rise. It is just another GW-SOD. (Global Warming Scare Of the Day)

  16. michaelh says:

    Thanks for your feedback! I’m considering it carefully.

  17. Larry Ledwick says:

    Regarding land forms, height of land near the ocean is not a reliable indicator of changes in sea level, erosion processes can be both positive and negative. That is why archaeological artifacts are always buried under the surface. Out side high erosion zones where soil sand and rock are broken up and moved down stream or down wind, the soil surface is always rising due to accumulation of atmospheric dust and biological debris, like dead insects, bird droppings, and carcasses of dead critters which changes to soil over time. (minus negative erosion processes like flash floods)

    The land near the Mississippi delta is gradually silting up and moving off shore creating a huge area of shallow water which will eventually become a large delta of land near current sea level.
    That build up of silt is also, due to its weight causing crustal subsidence so it is a combined process some positive some negative.

    In the case of the tropics you have continual growth of beach levels due to accumulation of shells and corals added to the beach deposits, which ever so slowly raises the beach in areas where wave erosion is not excessive. The mangrove swamps of the gulf coast are slowly filling in and migrating out to sea as they create areas sheltered from storm erosion and act as traps for materials deposited by storm surges.

    The accumulation of atmospheric dust is well demonstrated by dust the collects even on interior surfaces over time, outdoors the accumulation is faster, as rain drops during light rain events strip dust out of the air and deposit it on the surface without carrying it away as silt. Siltation in harbors, ponds and quiet river bends occurs all the time. These positive erosion processes gradually change lakes into swamps which turn into marshland, which in turn become meadows as vegetation grows captures wind blown dust in the grass then dies and forms soil. In old city areas you have a constant surface growth from the actions of man. Digging foundations for buildings result in mounds of fill dirt which goes somewhere nearby, accumulation of random trash, dirt falling off of muddy cars as they drive over rough roads, atmospheric dust captured by snow fall and brought to the ground. Demolition of buildings and the resulting rubble gets graded out and filled with topsoil for the next construction effort. The most obvious of these is varves which accumulate in lakes and gradually fill them in, likewise eolian processes can raise beaches and near inland surfaces as tides and waves build a beach then strong on shore winds transport some of the beach material in shore as dust.

    This has been graphically demonstrated in some areas where addition of break waters changed the local tide conditions, and dramatically change sand accumulation rates and locations in nearby beaches by changing the sand transport processes of the surf zone.

    In cities like Boston, New York and San Francisco of course we also have well documented intentional back filling to create new usable land which gradually expands the shore line out into the bay such as Battery Park in New York, or the land fill in some parts of San Francisco harbor.

    For that reason I have much more trust in high water marks placed on natural or constructed stone reference points, such as the water line on a rocky out cropping or stone pier built a hundred years ago.

    Just one more complication to the problem of measuring sea level rise – what is your reference point and is it really static?

  18. rhoda klapp says:

    Harlech castle in Wales was on the sea and now is some distance away, maybe that’s the one.

  19. ossqss says:

    Kip did an interesting write up on sea level and Miami a couple years back.


  20. Larry Ledwick says:

    So there have been a rash of “interesting” suspicious deaths recently. Enough that some are keeping a body count list for future reference. Many have implied or direct connections to the Clintons or human trafficking / pedophilia, political corruption or similar business.

    Some are most likely just the normal course of events, but there seems to be a bit too many, a bit too conveniently timed – some contend that possibly someone is cleaning up loose ends before definitive legal action takes place.

  21. Bill in Oz says:

    @Larry, If those Dissenter folk really want people to use their brouser, they will HAVE to make it simple and easy. It isn’t as set up. tried twice to install. Complete failure so far.. Dopey !

  22. Larry Ledwick says:

    Today’s “We Build the Wall” update

  23. E.M.Smith says:

    @Bill In Oz:

    When software is “new” it often isn’t as easy to install as after it has been around a while. In the normal course of development, first you make it work, then you make it installable (at all), then you make it easier to install, then you make it install on more platform / OS variations, then….

    So this is absolutely normal.

    That said:

    I tried to do the Linux Install… No ARM port. Well, OK, not everyone has realized the world is not longer Intel….

    I tried to do the Linux PC install. Downloaded the DEB file (and had to install gdepi to make sure dependencies were resolved) and ran that. “Wrong Architecture”. Oh, right, I’m on x86 THE most widely supported architecture in the world. It is amd64 only. What all the newer and hotter machines run.

    Once Again bitten by the “developers all running big fat new hardware” problem.

    So, OK, no Dissenter Browser for me, either. Of the dozen or so computers I use scattered around me, they support exactly none.

  24. Larry Ledwick says:

    @Larry, If those Dissenter folk really want people to use their brouser, they will HAVE to make it simple and easy.

    This was the process I used – I can’t imagine an easier process.

    Down load proper exe
    run it
    click button when it is done installing.

    What sort of problem error are you getting?

    What operating system are you using?
    Which download did you grab from their site?

  25. philjourdan says:

    @EM – 2 different groups. Democrats know about deals,that is why they are not attacking Trump in that vein (they are attacking him for “hurting” a friend). It is the press attacking him for not getting everything And they know nothing of deals. They are really stupid.

    The democrats are stupid because they forgot the first rule of foreign policy – countries do not have friends. They have shared interests between nations.

  26. Larry Ledwick says:

    This could get mighty interesting!
    How much stuff can you put on 31 TB of disk storage?

  27. Tired of Bullshit says:

    Open question; Can we ever get to a point where US and China can trade reciprocally? That is, where trade value volumes balance?

    Secondary question: Can we ever successfully defend our IP when trading with them?

    Finally, if we can’t get both – why trade with them at all?

  28. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting tidbit on free speech. Leftists of late have been asserting that “Hate Speech” is not protected under the first amendment and can be prohibited.

    The basis of this is:

    315 U.S. 568
    Chaplinsky v. New Hampshire (No. 255)
    Argued: February 5, 1942
    Decided: March 9, 1942

    Reading the actual decision you find that it does nothing of the kind, it only finds that the use of insults or slanderous word face to face in a public place (ie so called fighting words) which are likely to incite a breach of public peace can be legislated as illegal.

    It says nothing at all about only line or other written forms of speech which occur outside the public square and are not spoken in a manner likely to incite a violent reaction.


    The funny part is the only “hate speech” if finds open to prohibition by law is precisely the sort of provocative speech used by ANTIA and the rabid left with TDS who scream in people’s faces.

    Resort to epithets or personal abuse is not in any proper sense communication of information or opinion safeguarded by the Constitution, and its punishment as a criminal act would raise no question under that instrument.

    Cantwell v. Connecticut, 310 U.S. 296, 309-310.

    It seems to me that this very Supreme Court Decision could be used to bolster a defense against physically defending yourself in a public place against such intentionally aggressive fighting words and related physical acts (like throwing milk shakes – as has recently become fashionable).

    Just something to file away in the memory files in case it is useful.

  29. Larry Ledwick says:

    Speaking about leftists and their abuse of Trump supporters and conservatives in public venues.


  30. Larry Ledwick says:

    Why I almost always use a different search engine than google.


    I mostly use Startpage (Ixquick) which does use google results, because google is still the best at returning relevant results, but Startpage submits the query as an anonymized query so that the originator of the request is unknown to google (assuming they are not leaking trackable information to google in the process of aggregating the results). I do use multiple search engines on controversial topics which give slanted results.

    When it comes to things like ANTIFA or President Trump some results simply do not show up on google searches and you have to use alternate search engines.

  31. E.M.Smith says:


    1) Yes. But only with consistent, persistent, forceful enforcement of trade rules and currency manipulation prevention.

    2) No. They have no reason to be moral, don’t have the ethics needed, and have every reason to lie, cheat and steal. So they do.

    At every level of production, someone has a cousin who can make a yuan off of substituting a crappier part, material, or “whatever” so they cut a side deal and with a little payola to the right folks nobody stops it. That’s why you get toys made with lead paint, parts that look like the right part but fail as the materials didn’t match spec, and the only companies that can make decent products there have a small army of folks enforcing quality checks and flat out firing anyone found cheating or taking a bribe. The minute you stop watching, the cheat happens.

    Eventually that might change, but for now “facts not in evidence” and loads of products with “issues” being produced. Even things like “Olive Oil” that’s got toxic oils in it. I will buy NO food packaged or produced in China. You have no idea what is in it.

    I have a fondness for ABC American Born Chinese, and I’ve had a Hong Kong Chinese business partner. It’s not “Chinese” that’s the problem. It’s the Communist Chinese System.


    You don’t get 31 TB overnight… I wonder how he accumulated it… People sending him stuff, or maybe some back door access or???

    As to “how much” is that: Well, let’s just say it’s a few encyclopedia sets…

    has one comment with the full “installation” of Encyclopedia Britannica at 4.85 GB. Call it 5 by now. So 200 of them is 1 TB. Just call it 6,200 encyclopedia sets…

    I’m not sure what the deal is with McAfee, but he’s had some interesting entanglements over the years. Sometimes seems a bit over the edge to me, but who knows.

  32. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well California just bought that shiny new car that they have no hope of making the payments on, but they will ride around in style until the repo guy shows up and takes it away.


    Given McAfee’s anti virus business I suspect he has been inside networks or sniffing networks for a long time, or knows people who know people that have connections with a guy who does stuff.


  33. Larry Ledwick says:

    Lack of Situational awareness, photoshop or coy photographer?
    I like it.

  34. Larry Ledwick says:

    Video clip of a confrontation by a TDS Leftist with conservative media Info wars correspondent covering a political rally that has a surprise ending.

  35. Larry Ledwick says:

    President Trump apparently is about to turn the dogs loose on the tech giants.


  36. ossqss says:

    Stray bolt of lightning on a trunk line here provides a test of preparedness. I have an hour so far out of primary modem router and AC router (both backups 1250’s). This should be a good test with 6 people on it and 3 streaming. The Ridgid battery compatibility with lights and fans is working also. Did I mention lifetime warranty on those batteries.

    Nothin like summer in Florida with netcritters with no power on Sunday night!

    Oh the pain!

  37. E.M.Smith says:


    What is an “AC Router”? Is your AC power routed somewhere? ;-)

    Sorry to hear you are having a power outage. I bought a 1 kW inverter to hook to the car battery about 2 decades ago and haven’t had to use it since.. Even my 1 kW Honda Generator doesn’t start anymore (last run before I went to Florida about 2014? so needs a fuel system service…

    But that’s OK, the Democrats have “fixed it” so that PG&E sent us all letters saying to expect up to 48 hour power outages. Whenever it is “high fire danger” which means very sunny (so hot and dry) or very windy. As we are now committed to 100% renewables in just a few years and are already on the first step of instability; this now means we can’t GET power when PG&E can MAKE power…

    One also wonders what all those Tesla owners will do when charging power is unavailable for 48 hours, but hey, it’s only supposed to be regional power outages. How big can that be? ;-)

    I figure I’ve got a few months, to maybe a year, before I need to either service the generator, or move out of State…

    Hope all finds you well and may your air conditioning return soon!

  38. E.M.Smith says:

    For anyone who doesn’t know:

    PG&E provide electricity for most of everything north of Los Angeles. They were driven to bankruptcy a decade or so (maybe two now…) back via being forced to buy ALL their power on the spot market (what Dennis Miller called “Buying power at minibar prices”) and a few other choice stupidities of our government.

    They have just (again) filed for bankruptcy under the pressure of law suits for the “Camp Fire” that destroyed the town of Paradise. California is one of 2 or 3 States that have a law setting unlimited liability for fires caused by utility companies. We also have a law that if you are 1% “liable” for some harm, and have deep pockets when the 99% doesn’t, you can get to pay for 100% of the damages.

    So, OK, the President and several of the board members found better jobs and left the company just after the new bankruptcy filing and the company issued the “new rules” that any time they think some power line might spark a fire, they will just chop power until the wind is gone… or it’s not so hot, sunny and dry…

    Last time Dimocrats screwed up the power reliability this bad, we drop kicked the Democrat Governor and elected a RINO Republican. Who knows what will happen this time.

    But until I get the Honda fuel system cleaned: If you are not hearing from me, check the weather in California near Silicon Valley. If it is hot, sunny, and windy, I’m probably working by candle light on paper with a pen…

  39. Bill in Oz says:

    Larry & E M
    I have now got Dissenter downloaded and operating ..Not happy with the clunky way it imports bookmarks..But it is working and that is a relief after the constant screw ups with Chrome..

  40. Another Ian says:


    So we get the full implications of this

    ” I’m probably working by candle light on paper with a pen…”

    I hope you have goose feathers or at least steel nibs. And an ink well, even though it might have Quink in it.

  41. Another Ian says:

    “Pennsylvania Man thinks roundabouts are causing tornadoes…”


    And the first comment

  42. Larry Ledwick says:

    I have now got Dissenter downloaded and operating ..

    Good to hear – yeah the bookmarks were painless but a bit odd, and did not give me the control I would have liked. A bit of a kludge.

    It certainly has some maturing to do, but as a quiet vote in the browser wars I like the built in ad blocking and such while waiting for them to clean up a few things.

    When importing book marks what I would like to see is the ability to check boxes for each of the book marks you want to migrate to the new browser instead of an all or nothing option. Some of my book mark files are huge but on a new browser I only need the top 10 or 20 to be fully functional. The rest are there simply as an archive of links for those rare occasions you want to go back to something you found a year or two ago.

  43. cdquarles says:

    Was our host affected by the big West Coast outage? I have had trouble posting recently. This is a test of the Emergency Post System. This is only a test. ;p

  44. p.g.sharrow says:

    We have just survived PG&E’s “planned” outage. They shut us down 9:00pm Friday and restored power 2:00pm Saturday after inspection of all their lines for downs and damages. Except they forgot to re-energize our area until my lady complained to the district office in Sacramento that we were still off line at 6:00pm! They flew a crew out and fixed the problem by 6:30. I guess I will have to make generation and distribution a real part of our existence for the future,,,…. again. …pg

  45. H.R. says:

    @p.g. – Make sure your generator is steam powered. That way, you’ll never run short of fuel.

  46. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    I actually have a fair collection of fine fountain pens and several jars of ink (along with some cartridges) AND a calligraphy set with calligraphy nibs!

    I normally carry a Cross fountain pen in my pocket….


    I’ve not been affected, so far. PG&E is mostly worried about rural forested areas so I expect urban areas with LOTS of city fire fighters to be low on the “cut” list. But you never know…


    Yeah, time to dust off the “I’m on my own for power for a while” systems.

    I’ve decided to set up my battery box / inverter option sooner rather than later. The 1 kW inverter will drive all our “emergency” needs including TV, telecoms, fridge, and lighting. One car sized battery ought to be good for about 1 hour of that, so enough time to get the generator started and not be interrupted by the outage. The idea being to just always run those basics through the inverter and let the charger carry the load, then when power fails we don’t have to do anything.

    As lead-acid likes a float charge it ought to live on the charger anyway. Given about a 10% total loss in the 110 VAC to 12 VDC to 110 VAC trip, that’s about 75 Watts for our actual average use. Like leaving a light on in the garage. Well worth it to me.

    Then I can always just jumper the old Diesel car to the battery if I need more run time (as it stores 18 gallons of Diesel and the alternator is more than enough to keep the basic load going) so even after the Honda generator is out of gas, I’ve got a few days of power.

    All from one battery, applying my existing battery charger, and connecting my already bought inverter to it. (At present the parts are here, but To Be Assembled in the first Aw Shit… but maybe it’s time to stop waiting….)

    FWIW I just replaced the battery in one of the cars. $120 at COSTCO. I’ve treated the old battery with MgSO4 and I’m hoping some charger time can recover it. But if not, that gives an idea of the price point of a big lead-acid battery. RV batteries are about the same.

  47. Larry Ledwick says:

    I have literally looked at some of those small steam engines for that very reason.
    They could drive a car alternator for emergency power. Unfortunately all I have found have been desk top sterling engines of negligible displacement / power potential.

    You’d think someone some where has come up with a kit that uses a standard replacement cylinder for a motor cycle or subaru / VW / Porsche engine sleeve, capable of making about 1/4 – 1 hp on moderate steam or compressed air pressure supply.

    Ooops changed my search keys and went directly to the web rather than Amazon – I think I found a good candidate for someone who wanted to play with home made power station from steam. Should be able to produce about 150 – 180 watts output.


  48. ossqss says:

    Part of my SHTF kit includes a 750 watt inverter and a series 27 deep cycle battery from Sams ($84 with a core I believe). The inverter will actually run a small coffee maker. Back up batteries abound as I have one in both cars, a tractor, a gas golf cart and a scooter if I was desperate, let alone the UPS’s.. There is also a built in 400 watt (switchable to 150 watt) inverter in my 4Runner with built in armrest and rear plugs. One thing I do recommend highly is to get a good charger for the lead acid batteries that has a desulfator built into it. Properly implementing that type of maintenance on a battery can double its useful life. I have a couple of large Black and Decker chargers/maintainers that have done well over the years including an auto-float feature.

    I guess I better do my yearly generator tuneup also. It is season here.

    Back to work! :-(

  49. Another Ian says:


    Have a look at the results of this search

    EDTA lead acid battery desulphating

    IIRC tetra-sodium-edta was mentioned way back when

  50. Ralph B says:


    Thought you might find this interesting. Not sure how much you follow the doings of SpaceX or Blue Origin.

  51. Larry Ledwick says:

    E.M. a confirming article on your prior comments in recent months about rare earth elements and substitution if China tries to cut off the export of those key minerals.


  52. jim2 says:

    Just a note on sizing of generators or inverters:

    To correctly size a generator for home use to start a motor load, you obviously need to know its inrush current. This quantity is called Locked-Rotor Amperes (LRA) because at the first moment the rotor is at rest and acts as if it’s locked. If a motor nameplate directly states its LRA, you are lucky- that’s all you need to know. If not, it will usually state “kVA Code Letter” (or simply “Code”).


  53. bruce ryan says:

    western magnesium

  54. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well this inspires confidence in electronic voting in 18 states.

    How to gain full admin access to the machine in under 2 minutes using no special tools.

  55. YMMV says:

    BREXIT. This quote from Czechia is too good not to pass on.

    A few months ago, the center right Civic Democratic Party (ODS) […] has expelled its most popular member according to polls, Václav Klaus Jr, the ex-president son, for his colorful but apt metaphors criticizing the dictatorial trends in the European Union.

    He dared to point out similarities between Macron’s and Hitler’s plans for Europe; and he dared to point out that most of the laws discussed by Czech lawmakers are forced on us by the EU, a situation that resembles Jews’ committees that were “generously” allowed to vote about their own distribution to buses going to concentration camps.


    capitalism: We can do this!
    socialism: You CAN’T do that!

    “In England, everything is permitted except what is forbidden. In Germany, everything is forbidden except what is permitted. In France, everything is allowed, even what is prohibited. In the USSR, everything is prohibited, even what is permitted.”
    – Winston Churchill

    The Sword in the Stone (1938), T.H. White

  56. Ossqss says:

    A passing Ob. I have a garage door opener in a dawer in the garage. I put that opener in a baggie due to usage in a wet environment recently. It looks like a baloon in 3 days. Concider this contains a CR2032 lithium ion battery, why?

    I know, it’s late, and I am a bit lazy after several hours of mandatory testing today……..

  57. Larry Ledwick says:

    Check what the change in barometer readings have been from the day you sealed the bag until when you noticed it. Also change in temps – combine the two and you can get very noticeable change in volume.

  58. Another Ian says:

    Jordan Peterson starts new content-sharing, free speech platform “Thinkspot”

    As was promised in the aftermath of the infamous “Patreon purge,” Jordan Peterson has announced his free-speech platform, Thinkspot. Peterson, Dave Rubin, Sam Harris and various other members of the Intellectual Dark Web had been ruminating on the question of alternatives to Patreon after becoming disillusioned when several creators, notably Carl Benjamin, were banned from the platform.”



  59. Another Ian says:


    Responses to “You can’t do that”!

    Anglo Saxon “Yes sir. No sir. 3 bags full sir”

    Celt “Of course I can. I just did it”

  60. Ossqss says:

    @Larry, it has been consistently hot with stable high pressure. 90+ and 1015 hpa at last look. I gotta think the battery is gassing something out. Upon some cursory searching, I found this. Albeit, the battery is not very hot.


  61. jim2 says:

    Build a large Stirling engine …

  62. Larry Ledwick says:

    Those of you who have been trying out Dissenter browser:

    I was getting update errors on the earlier version of Dissenter so today I uninstalled and re-installed with the new executable. It is now up to date (same build version as Brave which is as it should be)

    But It also displays this note when you check updates:

    A word on updates:

    As of this build, Dissenter does not auto-update the browser itself. We’re of two minds on this: On one side, auto-update is nice, users get the latest software with the most bug and security fixes. On the other side, auto-update means your web browser is reaching out at least daily checking for updates. While we are still in alpha testing we are going to explore a happy medium that users agree with and gives users a choice. Until such time, please check Dissenter.com/download every few weeks for new updates.

    Version 0.65.118 Chromium: 75.0.3770.80 (Official Build) (64-bit)

  63. jim2 says:

    The idiots who want to get rid of crude oil better think twice …

    Lego tried making pieces from corn, but they were too soft. Its wheat-based bricks didn’t absorb color evenly or have the requisite shine. Bricks made from other materials proved too hard to pull apart, broke or had what executives call “creep,” when bricks lose their grip and collapse.

    “It’s a bit like putting the man on the moon,” says Tim Guy Brooks, Lego’s head of environmental responsibility, of the toy maker’s quest to make bricks from plants.


  64. Another Ian says:

    N(o) BS Investing

    “Fear Mongering 101: Global Warming”


  65. Larry Ledwick says:

    This just showed up on twitter a little while ago – will be interesting to see how far Iran is willing to push their latest aggressive actions in the region.


  66. E.M.Smith says:

    There’s a bit of hyperbole in that Lego claim.

    Simple Fact: You can run pretty much any plant or oil or coal based material (or even animal products…) through a conversion to “Synthesis Gas” – a mix of CO and H2. From that, you can then make any “petroleum based” plastic.

    The Wiki tries to make it sound like it is named for making synthetic fuel. That’s not true. It is also rarely used AS fuel since why bother when you can just burn the input stock? Some will be used as fuel in the process that makes it, just because it is available and nearly free at that point. It IS used to make a lot of synthetic fuels like gasoline, oil, etc. in Gas To Liquids GTL facilities, but then you are not using it AS fuel but as synthetic feed stock. Thus it is SyntheSIS gas not SyntheTIC gas.

    At one time it was widely used as fuel, but even then they often did a ‘water gas’ shift on it to get more hydrogen. (That’s why in the movies set in the 1800s you could kill yourself with your head in the oven – CO poisoning. Now not so much.)



    Synthesis gas (syngas) can be produced from a variety of sources and is a versatile intermediate for production of chemicals and fuels. Gas-to-Liquids (GTL), Coal-to-Liquids (CTL), Biomass-to-Liquids (BTL) all rely on the catalytic conversion of syngas.

    Then one of THE most widely used reagents in making various biochemical things is Methanol. All sorts of things use an R-OH type reaction.

    Syngas to Methanol

    Methanol is a versatile intermediate for the chemical industry, but can also serve as a fuel. Even better is dimethyl ether, applicable as bottle gas for cooking (like camping gas) or as a substitute for diesel fuel. Methanol is also used in the transesterification of vegetable oils to produce biodiesel.

    Why emphasize Methanol? What’s the big deal with “wood alcohol” originally made from wood distillation?


    (a) Polymers
    The largest use for methanol is as a feedstock for the plastics industry.

    (i) Plastics derived from methanal
    Methanol is used to make methanal and hence a variety of plastics, based on reactions with phenol, carbamide (urea) and melamine.

    (ii) Polyesters
    The production of polymers such as the polyester Terylene use methanol as the original feedstock.

    Methanol is used to make Terylene in two ways. One is as the alcohol to make the dimethyl ester of benzene-1,4-dicarboxylic acid (terephthalic acid). The other is to make ethanoic acid (acetic acid), a large amount of which is used in the manufacture of benzene-1,4-dicarboxylic acid. It is used as the solvent in the liquid phase oxidation of 1,4-dimethylbenzene (p-xylene), leading to the production of the acid.

    (iii) Poly(methyl 2-methylpropenoate)
    Poly(methyl 2-methylpropenoate) is used under trade names such as Lucite, Perspex and Altoglass. Methanol is used to make the monomer, the methyl ester of 2-methylpropenoic acid.

    (iv) Poly(ethene) and poly(propene)
    A most remarkable increase is in the use of methanol to produce alkenes by the MTO and MTP processes, from 6 million tonnes in 2015 to an expected 20 million tonnes in 2020, which will mean that a large proportion of plastics such as poly(ethene) and poly(propene) will, in the near future, be derived from synthesis gas.

    Because most plastics passed through methanol on their way to polymer.

    So, no ‘ding’ on you, Jim2; BUT that guy in the article is really saying:

    “Yeah, I know I can just run corn into synthesis gas and be done, but then I’d be out of a job. Besides, I want to play with polymers based on starches, proteins, amides and amines and all sorts of fun chemistry. Besides that, it is just a HECK of a LOT CHEAPER to use oil or natural gas as feedstock and we’re really just doing this for the PR Value – so I just can’t say that it is easy and we already know how it just costs too much, we’d have Gang Green up our backsides in a heartbeat and it would put us out of business to quadruple our costs and prices. So I just have to say it is hard, but we are trying.”

    Any good organic chemist can plot you a path from Synthesis Gas to the plastic of your choice. You may not like the price, or the particular odd plastic might need some added strange chemicals to get just the right bonds / shapes; but it CAN be done.

    Heck, I’m not even that good a chemist, but what I remember of Organic Chem and polymer chemistry, it wasn’t nearly as hard as biochem. Making drugs and enzymes is much harder yet we do that all the time. (Just they sell for $100s/gram instead of $100s/ton … )

    So I do not at all fault the guy for wanting to explore some kind of starch based plastic. Probably even one that’s biodegradable to please Gang Green. But to say it is not known how to make the present plastic from plant material? PR Spin for Economic Survival.

    Nor do we need to save the oil to make “petrochemicals”. They were originally made from Coal (and Eastman Chemical still uses a coal feed stock) while presently we mostly use natural gas (using oil was a transition in the middle). You CAN use any of them and just use the cheapest.

    It is also very “doable” (and companies have done it…) to use plants, turkey byproducts, and even garbage as the feedstock into the synthesis gas cooker. Just not very economical.

    BTW, also a footnote on Ford: George Washington Carver worked with Ford to make a plastic based on peanuts & soybeans and that was used for various nobs and such on early Ford cars back about the 1940s.


    George Washington Carver begins experimental project with Henry Ford
    On this day in 1942, the agricultural chemist George Washington Carver, head of Alabama’s famed Tuskegee Institute, arrives in Dearborn, Michigan at the invitation of Henry Ford, founder of Ford Motor Company.
    Like Carver, Ford was deeply interested in the regenerative properties of soil and the potential of alternative crops such as peanuts and soybeans to produce plastics, paint, fuel and other products. Ford had long believed that the world would eventually need a substitute for gasoline, and supported the production of ethanol (or grain alcohol) as an alternative fuel. In 1942, he would showcase a car with a lightweight plastic body made from soybeans. Ford and Carver began corresponding via letter in 1934, and their mutual admiration deepened after Carver made a visit to Michigan in 1937. As Douglas Brinkley writes in “Wheels for the World,” his history of Ford, the automaker donated generously to the Tuskegee Institute, helping finance Carver’s experiments, and Carver in turn spent a period of time helping to oversee crops at the Ford plantation in Ways, Georgia.

    By the time World War II began, Ford had made repeated journeys to Tuskegee to convince Carver to come to Dearborn and help him develop a synthetic rubber to help compensate for wartime rubber shortages. Carver arrived on July 19, 1942, and set up a laboratory in an old water works building in Dearborn. He and Ford experimented with different crops, including sweet potatoes and dandelions, eventually devising a way to make the rubber substitute from goldenrod, a plant weed.

    So yeah, everything old is new again because Gang Green can’t remember anything more than last meeting and The Press have no clue what “history of technology” is…


    We absolutely do not NEED oil, it is just a heck of a lot BETTER to use it. (And Gang Green will not let us build nuclear process heat reactors to make using plants economically acceptable…) Yeah, this is a Hot Button of mine. So much error flows any time organic chemistry and “petro” chemicals are discussed in The Media it would be better if they just said nothing. We already can make everything from beans, corn, flowers, old shoes, dead cats, trees; it just would be stupid to do it when oil is easier and much much cheaper.

  67. jim2 says:

    As a chemist, I am aware of all that. But none of it is cheaper than petroleum. Just sayin’.

  68. jim2 says:

    And, yes, starch has been added to most plastics so they will biodegrade. But they are of much lesser quality.

  69. Larry Ledwick says:

    Have a question here for the wizards on car buying from a dealer.

    Good used in clean condition how much would you knock off the dealer list for a 15 year old car as your starting point for actual sale price. (probably percentage would be the more general case)

    Craigs list on the car is well above the dealer list for NADA, Kelly Blue Book and Edmunds. I assume the dealer knows this and is just starting high and expecting some haggling.

    I already have financing approved for the car at the top NADA dealer list price so can swing anything under that with no problem.

    (I am intentionally keeping this in the general case rather than quoting specific values to not bias the answers)

    If high NADA clean car exellent condtion lists at 10000
    the Kelly Blue book lists at – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 9003
    Edmunds lists clean dealer list same car – – – – – – 7500

    Fair market sale price for the car listed would be between 6283 & 9003

    The posted list on this car would scale to 16972 (yes this is a high ball opening offer)

    Car has been on craigslist for 28 days
    Good news is the dealer that is listing it runs an auto repair shop and replaced valve cover gaskets sparkplugs and front tires as part of the pre-sale inspection.
    I trust their shop as they have done service on other cars so I know the car is in good condition and if there are any surprises I am confident they will work to resolve the issues. So this is in effect a pre-inspected certified used car. 15 years old mid life mileage for the brand and model.Very clean for its age after their detail work.- condtion would almost pass for a new car or very low mileage used car only a year or two old. Most likely spent its life in a garage.

    After I get some feed back will post the craigslist link

  70. H.R. says:

    @Larry L -Is that a new car dealer with a used car section?

    I ask because the Mrs. bought a 1-year old ’93 Thunderbird Supercoupe (SVT car) from a Pontiac/GMC dealer who took it on a trade for a new Trans AM. The advertised price was below Kelly average retail and we asked for another $800 of and got it. They did not want to fuss with a Ford. Anyhow, if it’s not one of the dealer’s new brands, they often want to move it off the lot quickly. When I was shopping for the F250, I did notice that the Chevy, Dodge, and Rice burner dealers had better deals than the Ford dealers on the used F250s.

    If it’s a popular model, it may not last and they will get at or close to what they are asking. If you don’t think it will be on the lot very long, look up the average, high, and low actual selling price on one of the sites (Kelly, NADA, Edmunds, etc.). Make your offer $400 to $500 lower than the lowest actuals. Always be prepared to walk. We did this for my wife’s Lexus RX300. The guy thought he had us and we walked. 3 days later we got a call asking us to come in because they “were sure we can work something out.” Wound up getting it for $200 over our holdout price, which was already $500 below the low price paid info, so we were the new “low price paid” by $300.

  71. Larry Ledwick says:

    Those numbers I quoted were derived from the (Kelly, NADA, Edmunds, etc.) listings. It is a small lot run by the repair shop, they buy cars wholesale and salvage for parts and take the ones with good clean bodies and do a bit of work on them and sell them on their own lot. So not really a dealer nor a “Happy Harry’s” Used car lot, but a brand specific refurbished used lot from the stuff they get in. I know quite a few folks who have gotten cars from them and they all were good cars with no bad surprises. They are literally the largest independent service provider for that brand in the country, have been in business in the same place for decades.

    They saved me about $1000 on some repair work some 25 years ago by giving me a better solution than was offered by the transmission shop which was trying to sell me a second rebuilt automatic transmission after the first one ate it’s own guts after a year or so beyond their warranted on their first rebuild, so I have a long history with the shop but have never bought one of their reconditioned cars.

    They are in a college town (Boulder) so I suspect the high ball asking price is to suck in stupid college kids who need a car while at school, if they are dumb enough to pay it. It is about 2x the median fair value price I see in the listings I have seen like Edmunds etc.

  72. Another Ian says:

    Sounds like no electric 737 MAX for a while

    “This video deals with the physics of attempting to fly an aircraft with battery power. There’s some complex math that lasts a few minutes, but please bear with it. And you’ll see why battery powered flight for large planes is still decades into the future. (Contrary to what the Green cons are telling you.)


    Via http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2019/06/14/june-14-2019-reader-tips/#comment-1214615

  73. H.R. says:

    @Larry – Hmmm… that’s an unusual business model. I’ve not run across that before. I can see why you’re a little bit stumped on where to start your negotiations.

    Still, I know this. Dealers use the books to decide what they will give for a car and it sure isn’t top dollar. They are trying to get cars for the low end of the buying prices in KBB or NADA.

    Since you’re confident that they make sure their cars are in good mechanical shape and you won’t be getting a used lemon with hidden problems, that seems to justify a little higher price than another dealer with the same vehicle. They have spent more time and money whipping it into shape.

    But 2X fair market value seems to be too much of a premium to me. Also, they need to turn cars because that’s money sitting on the lot earning nothing. Since you essentially have “money in hand” to buy the car, I’d emphasize that and ask a bit below fair market value. Their counter is to convince you that their car is not only worth fair market, but 2X fair market and I don’t see how they can do that unless it’s easy-peasy for them to get that 2X because of the college students. Then your willingness to walk – a sure sale headed out the door – isn’t a concern. A dumb college kid is coming in the door behind you.

    It seems to me that going for the low selling price is probably not going to work because they have a little extra in their cars. But it can’t be 2X extra and, just my opinion, there’s no need to pay 2X fair market. You could walk if they won’t go fair market, find an ‘iffier’ version of the same car, and since they seem to be a good repair shop, take it to them for the repairs needed to get it into good shape.

    Anyhow, that’s an interesting setup they have and it seems to produce satisfied customers, but 2X fair market?!? I dunno about that.

  74. E.M.Smith says:


    “Willing to walk” very much can work.

    When buying my very first Mercedes, I spent all day on a Saturday (last day of the quarter too so they were very interested in ‘making their numbers’ ;-) at the Ford Dealer. They had a very nice Mercedes Wagon at some price I didn’t like. we “negotiated” much of the day. At about 8:45 PM I said “well, I guess you just can’t reach my price and we don’t have a deal. To bad.” and slowly walked to my car while the salesman / gaffer ran to the boss.

    I was backing out of the parking space when they ran out into the lot and said they could meet my price ;-)

    I basically traded in an F350 pickup where I’d sunk a couple of thousand over the years trying to make the suspension right (and it never was…) and that got about 9 mpg on a good day, for a much better car, at about a straight swap plus sales taxes & such. IIRC it was about $ 1k to $ 2k out of pocket.

    For a while my Dad and a friend went to dealer car auctions and bought cars, then flipped them. The prices they sell at at auction are “crazy low”. Given the business model, I’d bet most of the “cost” in the cars is the labor fixing them up as just about any retail price will cover the purchase price at auction + transport and such. I’d start at Edmunds clean dealer list and just hold to it. Plan to spend 1/2 a day there, maybe twice. Walk out at least once… and say “this is what I can pay, that’s it, and I’m not interested in payments”. to cut off the “pack profit into crazy payment terms” approach.


    Like I said, no slam on you. We are very much in agreement. It’s crazy to NOT use oil and natural gas given how cheap and effective they are. Just griping about the “journalists” who keep writing the same stupid emotive stories and have no clue about the real tech available… or their editors who reject honest stories.

  75. jim2 says:

    EM – I “kind of” understand your hot button issue with people who don’t understand chemistry. But a much more severe problem is our “leaders” telling us what we can and can’t eat, where we will live, how we will get around, and in this case what energy source to use. The answers to these questions are best left to the free market. We are forced to use solar and wind power sources by edict. This top-down imperative management is a much more toxic issue than alternative feed-stocks.

    In the case of Lego, they may have been virtue signalling. But alternatively they may have found that alternative feed-stocks were not cost effective.

    So, I’m still of the opinion that anyone who says we shouldn’t use crude oil and natural gas is an idiot. Anyone who forces us to use inferior energy sources is also an idiot. There are many other “ideas” that idiots would force upon us.

    That’s my hot button issue.

  76. H.R. says:

    @jim2 – Under the current public education system, ‘Idiots’ seem to be an infinitely renewable resource.

  77. cdquarles says:

    In the old days, at least here in the old South, find yourself a Black Book; which gives you dealer auction prices. For new car dealers with a used car section (which most will have, considering), their prices for used cars were Black Book + $2000 or so. Car sales at dealerships don’t have much markup in them. The dealers live off finance stuff, which includes insurance plans like extended warranties, and repair; where the labor charged is basically the hourly rate of their service personnel. Be sure to get the Black Book for your area. They used to be sold at bookstores. Not sure now, about that.

    Being able to “walk-away” is the key to any negotiated deal. Buyer low-ball and sellers high-ball. Goal is to “meet in the middle” where both sides find things acceptable. Remember that value is in the eye of the buyer. For the buyer, that’s the good being sold. For the seller, that’s the money received; and when you are labor, you are the seller and the employer is the buyer. So, your labor is worth exactly the wage you agree to work for, and not a penny more, unless you can show it is worth more.

    About organic chemistry (the chemistry of carbon beyond carbon dioxide/carbon monoxide which was associated with biological organisms), the saying I heard from those guys was that they could synthesize any chemical you wanted from just ethanol and a synthetic pathway. They were mum about the costs. Chemistry is chemistry and there is no chemical that man can make that the rest of nature can’t; and vice-versa. What will vary is the cost.

  78. Larry Ledwick says:

    You folks are confirming my feelings about were to go on the prices. I did a craigs list search and found 8 listings for 2003, 2004 and 2005 models where the craigslist “asking” price averaged to $4085 including a few dealer listings.

    Here is the link for the car I am interested in but any of the other 8 listings would work for me with a slight tweak in the prices. I am guessing they have adopted a list high and work down approach as there are a couple other listings for the same make/model in the area that are also in that high range at other dealers. It might be that there are enough stupid rich folks running around that will actually pay that price often enough to make it worth the hassle.


    Even if you constrain the price and model year with the search function to that price range and 2004 or 2005 you get a handful of listings where folks in this area are using that price range as opening bid asking price. The point that this car has been listed for 27 days at that price means they are not getting a lot of interest in it at that price.

    Most of the other lists are in the $4000 range so that a few hundred under that is the price range that they are really selling at.


  79. Larry Ledwick says:

    I swear these folks on the progressive left must be taking stupid pills. You just can’t make this crap up – the idea that adults think this is a good idea (actually the whole context of let your society to nuts with knife violence than suggest that this is a solution just completely boggles the mind)

    Is there an underground drug that explains this or are they just plain stupid?


  80. Another Ian says:

    Story I heard about car dealerships and students. In “pre-Shah” days there was a small town dealership that had acquired a reputation among foreign students as a good and fair place to buy. They weren’t a heavy equipment dealership.

    Until one former customer walked in with Iran’s heavy equipment list for the year and insisted that it be filled via that dealership.

  81. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry L:

    I once asked my Mum about why she came to America. Her reply was that “all the good ones had left the UK”…

    Now I don’t for a minute think there are no “good ones” left in the UK; but I do think there’s something to be said for 500 years of “self selection” for getting to a better place in the colonies.

    Bright soldiers looking to advance do so in the ranks in India and Africa.
    Administrators looking to jump to the head of a region fast know it happens in the remote areas.
    Ambitious folks wanting to carve out a life with their own hands.
    Sailors realizing the South Pacific has more charms than Liverpool (my Uncle…)
    A bright woman wanting out of run down England (Mum, her best friend, 2 sisters to 3 total countries)

    You are left with those who are running the system back home (and may well have entrenched themselves via corruption Peerage Connections and those who could not leave.

    In Genetics 100A we learned that maximum selection happens after 30 generations pretty much regardless of trait selected or species. Humans have about a 25 year generation time (20 in prior generations). 20 x 30 = 600 years. Think about it…

    Many, a great many, with courage and ability and willing to bet on themselves packed up and left. Those who stayed, not so much… The already vested, those of no ambition and / or courage, and those unable…

    Now season with the unintended consequence of exporting your “ambitious troublemakers” to Australia… and you are also increasing your passivity…

  82. Larry Ledwick says:

    In Genetics 100A we learned that maximum selection happens after 30 generations pretty much regardless of trait selected or species. Humans have about a 25 year generation time (20 in prior generations). 20 x 30 = 600 years. Think about it…

    So the problems we are having today are due to adaptions that started taking place about the time Columbus and the other explores starting moving out and advancing frontiers. The non-adventurous who stayed behind in the old world are nearing peak shelter seeking.

    Interesting thought. I have long postulated that that is part of the difference between the eastern US and the western US. The folks who stayed east of the Mississippi and the Appalachians have been selected for lack of risk taking for from 150 – 250 years. The adventurer seekers and self confident self sufficient folks have been moving into the interior all that time leaving their timid family members and friends to take root in communities which have had the same family members there for 10+ generations.

  83. H.R. says:

    @E.M. – When you get a round tuit, would you mind checking “The Bin”? I’ve noticed that 2, perhaps 3, of my comments did not appear.

    I’m aware there’s sometimes a delay, but too much time has passed. I’m also aware that WP sometimes sends comments into the aether, and even the NSA doesn’t know where they went.

    Strangest one ever happened this morning. I commented on Larry’s link to the Brits giving out dull knives. In the ‘Recent Comments’ list, it showed I had posted the comment, but the comment wasn’t here somewhere below Larry’s comment. Now that’s a new WP episode of The Twilight Zone ” to me.

  84. Larry Ledwick says:

    Training / testing robots?
    Be careful what they learn.

  85. Another Ian says:

    E.M. Re English education

    It was reckoned that the top of the graduating class was sent out to govern India.

    The next tier the rest of the Commonwealth

    What was left stayed in England

  86. Ossqss says:

    @HR, you may be banned! I couldn’t stop my mouse. ;-)

  87. Another Ian says:


    Must be you or mention of you! I posted a reply on speed of comments showing just after the one above on English education and it isn’t showing yet

  88. E.M.Smith says:

    Well, I’ve serviced all the queues and found no stuck comments. The SPAM looked like spam, but maybe I didn’t notice as I usually just scan quickly for “the usual” and hit DUMP. (“the usual” changes slightly over time. Presently one religious fanatic posts the same 2 page diatribe to every open thread, then there’s a 1/2 dozen porn solicitations and a bunch of “mostly links” pushing online drugs. So my scan is looking for “xxx” or “porn”, many links with drug names, or the End Is Near as confirmation to just hit the dump it button).

    IF things go to the moderation queue, you ought to see your comment with the text “in moderation” applied to it.

    IF things go to SPAM, they do NOT show up and you get no feedback.

    WHEN WordPress has a fit and just loses things, I have no idea what happens.

  89. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry L:

    It looks like that Subaru is in great condition and fully detailed. I suspect that’s the reason for the higher price.

    The way I buy a used car (typically from a person not a dealer) is to start at what it is worth in very good condition, then start subtracting “cost to fix” for anything in bad shape. I usually count bad paint as $2000 and bad interior as $2000 (Mercedes after all…) then any mechanicals, tires, etc.

    I know it is a photo so you can’t see minor dings or paint scratches, but: I can’t see anything for which to subtract. It looks like a very clean car.

    For comparison: I bought a 2001 that is visually almost the same for $1400. I then needed to do the half shafts, rotors, brakes, tune-up, oil leaks / fitting under the engine. I think I’m into it about $1000 at this point (did the brakes myself) and I still need to do: suspension bushings for about $200 + installation, fix the paint where some rust has started at the windshield upper edge. Oh, and I did some minor stuff like new windshield wiper blades; but not fixed the “fancy wheels” that have started shedding some of their fancy surface coating.

    So after all that, I’ll have about $3000 to worst case $4000 in the car, have about 100,000 more miles on it than on the one you are looking at, and be 3 years older. That is about the target value I had put on the vehicle “fixed up” too. My profit will be how much under $4k I end up when everything is finally done.

    I also suspect you are right about the “for the kid” thing. Kid for Far Far Away flies in. Daddy has money. Needs a “safe” car in snow country. Buying must happen NOW as they are essentially living out of a hotel. Daddy writes a check… It just all gets rolled into the “cost of getting kid in college”.

    To the extent that is true, and this is summer, and you don’t need a 4 x 4 in summer, the car may have fewer buyers available. To the extent everyone around there knows the value of a 4 x 4 and some folks show up for Summer Session or start their move to the college town prior to start of classes, the scenario still works. (Graduation in June is a BIG car buying time…)

  90. H.R. says:

    @E.M. – Thanks for having a look.

    It’s a tossup as to which one of Life’s Great Mysteries will be solved first; The Universe, God, or WordPress.

  91. E.M.Smith says:

    Over a year old, and not what I’d call “a reliable source”, but indicates maybe more digging here needed:


    Gulf Stream current at its weakest in 1,600 years, studies show
    This article is more than 1 year old
    Warm current that has historically caused dramatic changes in climate is experiencing an unprecedented slowdown and may be less stable than thought – with potentially severe consequences

  92. H.R. says:

    Re the Grauniad article:

    Studies have shown…

    Aaaaaarrrrrggghhhhh!!!!!! For every study that shows ‘X’, there is a study that shows ‘Not X’.

    And there’s that word ‘unprecedented’ again. I don’t think it means what they think it means. Given the age of the Earth, I would think that every possible climatic state and geologic process has recurred, some of them multiple times. So how does something that perhaps happened 1600 years ago and it appears to be happening again become unprecedented? Fer cryin’ out loud, they just cited the effing precedent!

    The only unprecedented thing I can think of is Today. To the best of my knowledge, it has never happened before.


  93. Steve C says:

    Re the Gulf Stream, Pierre Gosselin had an article on it a few days ago. No panic, apparently, which is good news for us Brits. The AMO seems to have gone into its cool phase, though.

    That inanity about blunt knives is, I’m afraid, pretty much what we get in Notts these days. At least they still turn out for domestic violence, which is more than they do for a lot of crimes.

    That was the second discouraging Notts story I’ve come across recently. It was not a welcome experience to find dishonourable mention of my Alma Mater on Paul Craig Roberts’ site a couple of weeks ago – not just the university, dammit, but my old department, the place which made me the swine I am today. It’s all here, if you want to mock the afflicted …

  94. Larry Ledwick says:

    Just another example of why blunt knives make sense to some in the UK – apparently the university system is engaged in strongly down selecting for IQ, so their quota system will produce a two tiered graduation class, 75% high achievers and 25% low achievers, the average bloke in the middle will be tossed on the trash heap to get the diversity quota filled.

    The PC mania like Tulip bulb investing does not allow for common sense you must conform of be tagged with a derogatory label and ostracized.


  95. Larry Ledwick says:

    If you only get your news from the major media you probably don’t know this unless you dig for it on their web sites, but Ebola is starting another outbreak in Africa. (the location of which by the way includes countries which recently had large illegal entry to the US over the uncontrolled Mexican border)




  96. Quail says:

    For Ebola analysis try Raconteur Report.


  97. Larry Ledwick says:

    Some interesting posts on that blog.

    In chasing things down on ebola I found this as a quick and dirty summary.



    Much of this would be equally applicable to infection control for the diseases showing up in Pelosi encampments and feces covered streets where homeless and drug users congregate.

    Seems the EB are not going to take disease outbreaks seriously in Democratically controlled cities and their tolerance of hygiene issues that would have gotten mayors hauled out of office and tarred and feathered just a hundred years ago. Unfortunately we will have to deal with a major epidemic of serious disease before the clueless progressives figure out there is a reason for quarantine procedures and good street hygiene in public places.

  98. E.M.Smith says:


    Yes, I’ve been following it. Mostly on France 24 in their “Africa” report. The UN weenies met and decided it was a DRCongo and “region” emergency not a “global health emergency”, despite now being officially the 2nd largest Ebola outbreak ever.

    Seems some of them were worried that declaring it a Global Emergency would involve closing the DRC / Uganda border and there’s a lot of trade there so it would be hard on the folks there. I mean, you know, having to wait a few months to trade that’s horrible, while dying of a hemorrhagic fever is over in just days… / sarc;

    There were some DRC folks who’d crossed over into Uganda. Grandma and grandkid died, one other kid was found to have it and “sent back”, unclear about others (other than one unrelated kid who they thought had “ebola like symptoms” but on further observation was cleared. )

    So since no active spread was seen inside Uganda (yet) they decided it was OK to continue having thousands of people and lots of trade from the DRC infected region into Uganda was all OK.

    Oh, and IIRC, there were a handful of cases reported inside an urban center in DRC, but no worries, it was several miles from the city with the international airport…

    I’ve avoided pot-stirring on this one and have just been letting my “Oh Bother” simmer slowly…

    Why? They now DO have what looks like an effective vaccine, so the real question is about rate of production “going forward” vs exponential ebola growth rates; neither datum known.

    IFF they can effectively contact trace, isolate, and inoculate fast enough, it can be contained. If not?…

    I’m just waiting for the first case to show up in another country Far Far Away after someone “hops a plane” and then we’ve got 300 “seats on a plane” to track down, contact trace, inoculate, and then some of them with connecting flights at a x 300 each and then….

    Would the average doctor in, say, Cambodia or Kazakhstan see a patient with “flu like symptoms” and think “Ebola?” or would they say “Take 2 aspirin, call me if it gets worse” and only think “Ebola!” when the patient turned up in the ER with bleeding?

    I fear we’ll need to lose a major urban area somewhere on the map before TIIC (the Tiics or The Idiots In Charge) figure out it’s a very bad idea to NOT quarantine a disease with the potential to destroy whole nations in weeks.

    FWIW, I’m prepared enough to do a couple of month “self quarantine” and ride out any sudden appearance in our area by just not leaving the house until it’s over. I don’t expect to need to do that at all as our folks will be quite diligent about contact tracing and we’ve got the money to outbid anyone else for the vaccines; but still… better to be prepared than not.

    Wonder what it costs to get one of those NCBW / CDC “Bunny Suits”? 1/2 8-}

    And yes, I usually have a gallon of bleach “extra” in the garage for disinfecting and / or treating water as needed. We run out in the regular jug it gets opened and a new one bought for the “extra”.

  99. Quail says:

    Sorry to say, they are going to run out. Pro-Med on latest Ebola update:


    “Merck announced it would produce an estimated 450 000 additional doses of experimental Ebola vaccine, just after the 1st cross-border case was confirmed to have spread to Uganda from the Democratic Republic of Congo.

    “Merck has determined with the U.S. Government, WHO, and others that additional vaccine supply would benefit overall public health preparedness, both to support the current DRC outbreak and for preparedness against any new Ebola . . . outbreak(s) that might occur,” Pamela Eisele, product, pipeline, and supply media relations at Merck, told Devex in an email, just days after the 1st case of Ebola was reported in Uganda. Eisele said the decision was made “recently.”

    Just last week [week of Mon 3 Jun 2019), U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director Robert Redfield raised concerns that responders may run out of the investigational Ebola vaccine, currently the only one used in the DRC response outbreak.

    “Unfortunately, there’s going to be a 6-12-month lag before there’s adequate vaccine supply, so we do project that we are going to run out of vaccine,” he said in testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives.”

  100. E.M.Smith says:

    Oh, and per “blunt knives”: I wonder if any of those idiots has plunged one into a melon to see how well that works?

    HINT: Even a blunt knife has a very high PSI on the cross section and will happily penetrate the belly. The most common target. Furthermore, it will still be just dandy for slashing attacks (the 2nd most common use and the most effective AND what we trained for in Karate class… Yeah, I know “empty hands” and weapons training? What? Let’s just say it was important…)

    Maybe a YouTube search would turn up someone who’s done it…

  101. Quail says:

    Closing the borders there doesn’t matter. The part of the family who came down with Ebola so far must have had an inkling that they were sick because they snuck around the border.


    “…We now know that a family of 14 travelled from the DRC to Uganda. Most of them crossed at the formal border, but five evaded the main port of entry. Instead they crossed over informally. Those five arrived with symptoms that included diarrhoea and bleeding. This implies a period of illness in the DRC and that they were most likely symptomatic while travelling.

    It appears they knowingly evaded the official check point that would have monitored their temperature and physical signs to pick them up as possible Ebola cases…”

    However, since 40% of the victims of this particular variant don’t have a fever, the border check may not have shown anything anyway.

    Click to access OEW43-2026102018.pdf

  102. E.M.Smith says:

    Oh, Great. 1/2 year to a YEAR cycle time on vaccine production.

    Yeah, I’d say they are going to run out. For all practical purposes that says “you have what was in inventory at the start of the event and there will be NO resupply until after this is all over”.

    So, OK, unless they can get this outbreak eradicated before it can jump out of region, they are screwed.

    Then figure in that inside the DRC they have a revolution / war going on and that “the locals” were actively destroying ebola clinics and killing staff. So what are the odds it will be eradicated in that context? Eh?

    (Oh, and they stole the stuff from the clinic and sold it. No idea if it was new or “used / contaminated”.)

  103. Larry Ledwick says:

    With limited vaccine production and available inventory, they will probably resort to vaccinating the primary care group and a ring of herd immunity around the high risk areas, and travel limitations to limit ability to spread.

    As long as you are in front of the curve Clorox and HTH crystals (pool chemical section) are readily available for expedient usage, although both do not store well. The HTH crystals need to be kept isolated from moisture and combustible chemicals and the packages of HTH vent chlorine as they age so cannot be kept in a confined space.

    UVC lamps have some advantages as long as you have power to run them.

    The full CBC bunny suits are stupid expensive, but you can go a long way with simple Tyvek disposable suits / protective coveralls sold for painting etc with appropriate particle masks etc. if you had to traverse a contaminated area. If you have never gone through training on how to don and doff protective gear it is a big hassle and you really need an assistant to do it right.

    A good supply of 2″ masking tape is also handy along with plastic trash bags etc.

    Protection is basically a process of establishing barriers and minimizing paths that allow contamination. Even expedient covers made out of trash bags can be quite effective if done carefully by someone who knows what they are doing.

    The big problem is it consumes a ton of supplies to do more than a one or two time case (talking truck loads of gear) to maintain long term care, although in 2014 some of the rural African clinics did a pretty good job with expedient systems (farmer rubber boots and pan with Clorox solution in it to step in every time you entered left the protective clothing area and what ever suits they could manage and spray down with Clorox solution with hand spray applicators, then stand in the sun for a while before taking it all off as carefully as possible.

  104. E.M.Smith says:

    The “news” I heard said they were vaccinating primary care givers and known contacts of known victims. As long as they insist on the “everyone is now free to move about the country / continent / globe” behaviour, they can’t do a “Ring around the problem, ring around the problem” inoculation.

    As the “rebels” are active in the area, some of the folks moving about have a load of guns… and do NOT answer to Authority and do NOT want to sit still. IMHO that’s the worst bit.

    They can’t effectively quarantine the area. (Rebels & Govt having running battleground)
    They can’t effectively treat inside the area. (Locals destroying clinics)
    They can’t inoculate a ring around the area. (Size & porosity)

    In the last week they went up by something like 400 cases in the size reported in the news, and added a country… This is NOT being controlled yet.

    With luck, there will be a dramatic spike in cases inside the war zone and that will kill off enough of the combatants that effective treatments can be done in the area. Then it can “burn itself out” in that isolated population area.

    Without luck, it starts popping up in a variety of areas Far Far Away and without any way to effectively contact trace. (Like “who was on the local bus in Kinshasa yesterday?”…)

    At this point, all we really have going for us (us being the globe) is that it is relatively hard to “catch” and requires some kind of wet or damp close contact. Well, that and the fact that diseases “like” to evolve toward non-lethal forms. Any mutation that doesn’t kill will last longer in the host population and spread further. (The flip side of “it kills most folks” at present as that is a “feature” that limits spread).

  105. E.M.Smith says:


    Oh Gawd! So actively bypassing checks, and 40% are not going to show up in the “look for high temperature” rough scanning anyway.

    One wonders how many people the group of 5 had contact with in their bypass route… and how many others were taking that route…


    BTW, bleach does keep a long time in the original plastic. I’ve used it after a year+ and it was still strong.

    Also note that you can buy concentrated hypochlorite for pool use that keeps a very long time. I get “pool tablets” in plastic individual wrap when “on the road” along with a rubber seal glass lid “snap bail seal” (antique style or Euro style canning jars). Then I put one in the jar. Left slightly open in the far side of a hotel room they fairly quickly “clean the air” of various smells, scents, and 101 other things that cause my nose problems. I usually close the jar at night unless the issue is particularly strong. When sealed, this stays fresh and strong a long time as water vapor is the catalyst for Cl production and the jar is water vapor proof. I’ve had one “in use” for over a year at times.

    IF anything makes it to this continent, one of the first things I’m doing is making a run to Home Depot or Lowe’s for plastic sheeting, lots of “Duck Tape”, and pool supplies…. along with a load of “cleaning supplies” like rubber gloves, and some “fishing stuff” like hip waders … I already have an Israeli style gas mask, but might add a HEPA respirator and goggles just in case I need a spare. I’ll have to check out ‘painter suits” ;-)

    I’m pretty sure it won’t make the jump to global / pandemic. The spread is fairly slow and before it does that it ought to pop up in nearby countries and / or one “frequent flier” destination from Africa. At that point TIICs will realize they are at risk and suddenly all sorts of things will start happening.

    IMHO the most likely “worst case” is some large urban area inside DRC gets surrounded by “Men with guns” and allowed to have 50% die to contain an otherwise unstoppable urban outbreak. (Then you have the problem, though, of it becoming endemic in the rodents and dogs of the city and the survivors being contagious for at least 1/2 year that we know of…)

    I just hope the CDC / UN / EU-whoever get their butts in collective gear and stamp this out pronto. Treating it like chicken pox is not going to cut it.

  106. Another Ian says:

    Well if that doesn’t get you this might

    “Let’s have a Real Crisis instead of a fake one.”
    “Sometime this century we are going to have a magnetic pole swap or excursion. We don’t know exactly when. We won’t know how complete it will be until it’s over. If we’re still here.

    1. Magnetic pole swaps are often accompanied by an extinction. How many species or which ones, will be lost we have no way of knowing. It could take out Homo Sapiens. The Laschamp one c. 40,000 years ago took out Homo Neanderthalensis. (Neanderthal Man) and the Lake Mungo (33,700 YA) finished them off. ”

    And as the ads say “And yet there is more” at


  107. jim2 says:

    Some part of the Ebola problem lies in the societal customs. Like intimate contact with the dead in the funeral ritual. Even the idiots among us have a better understanding of hygiene than those in the turd world.

  108. cdquarles says:

    That and Ebola and HIV are offshoots of the same virus family. The ugly worry is when it becomes zoonoic with insects, akin to the parasite that causes malaria. Indeed, roughly 100 years ago, at much pain, the West learned that the “solution to pollution is dilution” plus, for disease, minimizing or stopping transmission; and that includes physical quarantine of people and quarantine of soil/water/air that’s contaminated with the causative agents from people who are still susceptible.

  109. Larry Ledwick says:

    I know this is a photo shop but is so perfect for fathers day and all those “well it seemed like a good idea at the time” Dad projects.

  110. Larry Ledwick says:

    In a more mellow mood – some day I want to see a northern lights display live in the wild.

    Spring time Northern lights video clip

  111. jim2 says:

    This is a good one from Lubos.

    Jesus had a reason for a men-only last supper


  112. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting – a guy tried to shoot up the Dallas Federal building with an AR-15 and almost instantly killed by Federal police with pistols. Media is pretty much ignoring it because the body count is only one.

    Guy was a wacko looks like a sovereign citizen type, but not much info out yet. Something is crosswise with the anti-gun agenda as this is getting the quiet treatment.

  113. Another Ian says:

    Developing a taste for calamari?

    ““Surprise” Climate change, 900ppm CO2, acidification is good news for squid”


  114. Larry Ledwick says:

    I think I found the clinker that is keeping the Left from ranting on the Dallas Shooting event.

    This was on his social media page apparently:

  115. ossqss says:

    Well, never a dull moment on the news net. This was interesting. Maybe we do have 12 or so years left! AOC might be right for the wrong reasons! ;-)


  116. E.M.Smith says:


    Yup. There’s several cycles in cycles with it. Every year we pass through it (Taurids), then every few years it is heavier (forget the exact number) but then every 1500 years or so we pass right smack dab through the center of the swarm the same time the most dense pack of the swarm is there… Now don’t you worry at all that the 1500 year cycle sounds a whole lot like the 1500 year Bond Event Aw Shit cycle or that there’s a set of 1500 year, 750 year, and about 350 to 375 year cycles of collapse of civilizations. Just “numerology” I’m told by “experts”… /sarc;

    FWIW it looks like Enki broke up some 20,000 years or so ago, and some big chunks whacked into us in the Younger Dryas Impact Event (that I’d call “Events”).

    The really really good news? Every year there’s less of it left to whack into us. Eventually we’ll have absorbed all of it.

    (The bad news is there are still some civilization / continent destroying sized masses out there).


    An Odd Thing to report:

    I have my own DNS server and my own DHCP server that are NOT in my AT&T Router. ALL it has to provide is packet routing. Today is the third time it has refused to route DNS queries while still routing other stuff. (Eventually when those DNS values expire even those services halt – but for a while a TV show will keep on running while new things get a no-go due to no DNS).

    The first time I started by a full on reset of “my stuff” since clearly it must be my DNS failing… but it didn’t fix it. Eventually a reboot of the AT&T router and all was good.

    This time I did my basic tests, got no DNS lookup results, and just rebooted the router, after which DNS lookups work again (and WITHOUT touching my DNS server). I also swapped this Chromebox system to use Google DNS and it didn’t work either until after the reboot of the AT&T router.

    I don’t know what it is, but clearly it is in the AT&T supplied router and every week or 2 it gets grumpy about DNS packets. It being the ONLY thing I touched to fix the problem pretty much shows that. That the TV keeps running “for a while” until name service timeout also says basic packets moving through. Then, inspection of “all my stuff” is fine. Not much else left…

    Next time it happens I’m going to look over the box status / logs some prior to the reboot, to see if anything interesting shows up.

    I know the Telco’s really want you to use their DNS servers so they can harvest your “contact trace” information, so maybe it’s some kind of thing related to that. It gets poked, says mum on DNS, so gets a “be grumpy” packet? Who knows….

    I’m going to write down the IP number of a couple of known ping reesponders and then try pinging them directly to validate basic packet flow too. And, of course, check that it didn’t just shut down UDP services. If that’s what it is doing, I’ll teach my DNS server how to do DNS to the upstream via an encrypted link in TCP ;-)

    I suppose it is also possible this is some kind of UDP based hack / attack and as I’m not using the router for UDP / DNS is “has a bug” in how it behaves…

    Ah, the “joys” of home tech support….

  117. ossqss says:

    @EM, are you using an HTTPS connection to your router? Do you have DDoS protection turned on the ATT box?

    I had some hickups a while back and when I implemented those items and some others I can’t recall, they went away. Keep in mind I have a dynamic IP in my Spectrum router/modem. My primary access point is the Asus AC router.

  118. Larry Ledwick says:

    Why we should not lower the voting age to 16. In fact a good reason to raise it for presidential elections to age 24.

  119. ossqss says:


    Saw this and thought to share on car items.

  120. Steve C says:

    Couldn’t find your original “Honkster” post (is it just “a WordPress thing” which only shows me max four posts on category or date searches? – Affects WUWT etc. as well.).

    However, I chuckled inwardly yesterday on seeing someone mention that Facebook are “no longer accepting” comments which just say “Honk!” … Sorry no link, I saw it on my early morning quick scan and couldn’t find it later (of course). But it looks like Honking is beginning to have an effect, Honk, Honk! (or do I just mean “Ho, Ho!”) … ;-)

  121. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    FWIW, there isn’t much evidence for what actually did in the Neanderthals, or IF they were done in at all. The implied % Neanderthal DNA in modern people is hopelessly low. Several reasons including: Some Neanderthal genes went INTO Africa so the assumption that sub-Sahara Africans tell you what non-Neanderthal is, is bogus. (4MyPeople is dedicated to the search for Neanderthal genes today and did an interesting thing. Running known Neanderthal samples through the “origin” searches has about 70% come up as “African” but mostly matching the particular tribe that has semi-asian like features and where it is likely they were a back-migration).

    It is my thesis (and he has the same one…) that Europeans ARE largely Neanderthals with some hybridization with Cro Magnon. I have a laundry list of Neanderthal features including a very large hat size, small larynx, (several other things…), and my dentist was impressed that I had archaic tooth cusps that are slightly rare but similar to Neanderthal type. So am I extinct? I don’t think so…

    BUT once you say “all modern Europeans are not-Neanderthal” then finding Neanderthal genes in that population becomes much harder… Essentially all you can find are the UNIQUE genes in the LIMITED samples that did not make it to the general population.

    Then consider all we have is about 1/2 dozen (or maybe less) Neanderthal gene samples. So they were able to show that they had blond / red hair, but “it is a different red gene than modern humans” so ours must be a separate evolution… Which is just wrong. It just means there were many versions in the Neanderthal population and ONE was saved in the individual tested while a different one jumped into the hybrid that is Modern Humans.

    What has clearly happened is multiple hybridizing events in both the Levant and Asia and Europe along with a bit of a diaspora spreading out (with some ‘back to Africa” note the Pharaohs with red hair and blue eyes and that they spread their genes around rather widely…) including all the way into East Asians (“oriental” types have Neanderthal genes along with Denisovan genes and the Denisovan is very likely a Neanderthal 1st cousin or Neanderthal variation).

    BTW, there was a giant volcanic event about the 40,000 year supposed “extinction” that had a debris field which covered most of the Neanderthal homeland and layers of ash are found in Neanderthal inhabited caves above the last Neanderthals. Most likely, that wiped out the pure form in their central territory (France, Germany, Italy, and into Eastern Europe) and dramatically reduced numbers elsewhere. Then, once the land started to recover, a large influx of the hybrid forms from the Middle East and Central Asia genetically swamped the remainder and gave us “Modern Europeans”.

    Oh, and most species come through magnetic reversals just fine, otherwise we’d all be dead and there would be nearly nothing alive on the planet. Look up the frequency of “Magnetic Excursions”. Those are “magnetic reversals” that only last a few hundreds / thousands of years and end up back in the original state. They happen every few dozen millennia…

    A geomagnetic excursion, like a geomagnetic reversal, is a significant change in the Earth’s magnetic field. Unlike reversals, however, an excursion does not permanently change the large-scale orientation of the field, but rather represents a dramatic, typically short-lived change in field intensity, with a variation in pole orientation of up to 45° from the previous position. These events, which typically last a few thousand to a few tens of thousands of years, often involve declines in field strength to between 0 and 20% of normal. Excursions, unlike reversals, are generally not recorded around the entire globe. This is partially due to them not being recorded well within the sedimentary record, but also because they likely do not extend through the entire geomagnetic field. One of the first excursions to be studied was the Laschamp event, dated at around 40000 years ago. This event was a complete reversal of polarity, however, as it later turned out, though with the reversed field 5% of the normal strength. Since this event has also been seen in sites around the globe, it is suggested as one of the few examples of a truly global excursion.
    Except for recent periods of the geologic past, it is not well known how frequently geomagnetic excursions occur. Unlike geomagnetic reversals, which are easily detected by the change in field direction, the relatively short-lived excursions can be easily overlooked in long duration, coarsely resolved, records of past geomagnetic field intensity. Present knowledge suggests that they are around ten times more abundant than reversals, with up to 12 excursions documented within the current reversal period Brunhes–Matuyama reversal.

    So not to worry. IF they caused extinctions we’d all be extinct already…

    Now what I think is going on is that when the Earth gets whacked with a bloody big space rock, it causes an extinction AND stirs the planet enough you get a reversal sometimes too. But unless / until someone finds and dates a crater (and they may be on the ocean floor… out of sight) the extinction gets attributed to what we can measure, not the root cause.

  122. E.M.Smith says:

    I want to know how they tune the rocks. Chisel?

  123. YMMV says:

    BREXIT. This analysis says, more or less, that it’s all over. EU won’t give a better deal, Parliament won’t approve a no-deal or a May-deal. EU wins, UK stays in. The only way to resolve the impasse is a general election and that is a scary thought for the sitting MPs. I don’t see a fault in his logic.

  124. E.M.Smith says:

    I think there is a small chance the flood of Brexit Party EU MPs will so piss off the EU Elite that they decide to not extend deadlines again nor accept a “deal” and just toss the UK out.

    That is likely the best you can hope for at this point. With the possible exception of a court deciding you already left as that was the law at that moment.

    Parliament wont have the spine to exit with no deal or the T.May deal, meaning dithering and pissing away the time they have. Then when the crisis is upon them, nothing has changed (we’ve seen this cycle 2 or three times already and don’t expect them to change). Any attempt to extend or not leave is political suicide as it POs 1/2 of the voters. So I expect they will punt to another referendum but with much more Project Fear and a crop of new voters indoctrinated in schools over the last 3 years…

  125. jim2 says:

    Here is the first part of a description of the Pew Research center, by Facebook:

    “The Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan American fact tank based in Washington, D.C.”

    I’ve never heard of a “fact tank!” They are pushing Pew’s frequent propaganda as “fact.”

  126. E.M.Smith says:


    Yeah, to “fact check” now being redefined as “to validate conformance to dogma”….

    I predict “fact tank” as a neologism will crash and burn under the weight of things like “fact tanked” and “How tanked were they at the fact tank? So much they believed this whopper!” Then just asking “Does that mean they are an inert storage device,? Like a wheat silo or compost pile?”

  127. Larry Ledwick says:

    They should probably change that name to “Disinformation Tank” or “Spin Tank” or “Propaganda Tank” – – – – – – or something could be said for calling them “septic tanks” but that name is already taken.

  128. Another Ian says:

    Larry L

    “something could be said for calling them “septic tanks” but that name is already taken.”

    Twice actually if you’re into rhyming slang

  129. H.R. says:

    @Ossqss – I just beat the Linger Lodge on fried green tomatoes, and theirs were my gold standard… up until now.

    I made grilled green tomatoes tonight. I gave them a light spritz of olive oil and seasoned them with Goya “Sazonador Total”.

    Yum! Even my wife ate them and she’s a foodie heathen.

  130. ossqss says:

    @HR, now I am hungry again. ;-)

    I just about had some hand caught Quail a few minutes ago. He was calling in my front yard, so I mimicked him and he came right up to me until he saw the Yellow Lab drooling next to me with his tail wagging, then bolted! Maybe I will try grunting up some Gator’s in the back, since I feel like Tarzan now, LOL!

  131. H.R. says:

    @ossqss – UNGOWA! Hey, it always worked for Tarzan.

    Want the elephant to charge? UNGOWA!
    Want the elephant to turn left? UNGOWA!
    Want the gorilla to buzz off? UNGOWA!
    Want Boy to quit playing in the quicksand? UNGOWA!
    Want the crocodiles to stop chasing you? UNG….. uh, no… swim faster. They don’t speak ‘Tarzan’.

    Used to crack us kids up watching the old B&W Tarzan movies ’cause he’d use ungowa for everything.

  132. Another Ian says:

    Economic honours

    “President Trump Presents Medal of Freedom to Economist Dr. Arthur Laffer – Video and Transcript…”


  133. ossqss says:

    LOL, couldn’t stop my mouse ;-)

  134. Larry Ledwick says:

    Car problem is resolved, just picked up a 2010 subaru from the dealer 106K miles, manual transmission, so winter transport is resolved and I can actually take the van out of service long enough to fix its mechanical problems.

  135. Larry Ledwick says:

    It was getting really spooky driving a van with very bad brakes since my daily commute is 21 miles each way. Unfortunately this kills all my mad money for a while – absolutely essential expenses only for a bit, but the deal was too good to pass up regarding condition of the car.

    Interior is essentially in like new condition, and body is straight with no dings or problems I could find in my hasty inspection. The only problem I know it has is the sun visor on the drivers side is a bit loose and wants to fall down.

  136. H.R. says:

    I’m glad you got the Subaru you wanted, Larry.

    You got a $#!7-pot of negotiating tips here, most of them you probably already knew. I’ll have to assume you got it at a price you were satisfied with or you wouldn’t be driving it now. That was an interesting set-up with the dealer, though. I’d never run across any situation like that before.

    Good choice, particularly for Colorado. It should have a lot of miles left to go on it.

  137. Larry Ledwick says:

    Yes a 2010 with an interior that looked show room clean, and a body free of dings for only slightly more (out the door all costs) than that over priced 2004 I was talking about, and only 106K miles.

    I am very satisfied. Test drove it yesterday only problem I found was a slightly floppy driver side sun visor and no proof that the 100K service had been done. I asked about the service to the cam belts supposed to be done at 100K and they knocked $1000 off the price. If I pull the front cam covers off and the belts have been done, big win, if they have not been done fair price and I have that maintenance done on time at a shop I trust.

    They setup pickup for 11:00 AM today and I was driving away by 1:00 PM.

    I will keep this as my “clean passenger car and winter car” until I can find a second rough duty winter car (shopping for an older Jeep but will be a while before I can swing that, but now that I have a fall back car and can properly service the van which I only have $3200 in, I can take my time to find just the right deal.

  138. H.R. says:

    @Larry – YAY! Sounds really good, and you are 6 years ahead of that 2004 on parts that die out from age, regardless of mileage.

  139. Larry Ledwick says:

    Right ! That was one of the considerations to take the plunge – this car still has 10+ years of life in it with only normal usage and maint. If I plan accordingly, I can get at least 15 out of it.

    Of course I will be living on peanut butter sandwiches and water for a couple weeks to get my bank accounts back in order, but a small price to pay for a reliable car with about 25% better fuel mileage than the van. (and much more fun to drive )

    For deep snow I want a mildly lifted 1992 – 2002 jeep or similar so I can if need be deal with 18″ inch snow drifts (the 2010 will start plowing snow with the air dam at about 8″ of snow depth so deeply rutted snow will be an issue, but hard pack snow and ice absolutely no problem in the 2010) Deep snow is occasional and I do need to bust a drift or two occasionally (local road crews sometimes get behind the 8 ball on quick developing storms). I have driven home from work on roads with no tire tracks in the snow for miles and multiple cars in the the ditches on a few occasions.

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