Iran / Iraq News Thread

Since it looks like things may be happening fast, here is a fresh thread for aggregating all things Iran / Iraq / nutbar actions related.

Why? W.O.O.D. is already a bit slow and it will take me a while to start a new one. Fast breaking combat events could make it unworkable before then.

Original news notices were in priod W.O.O.D. starting about here:
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2019/12/31/w-o-o-d-31-december-2019-the-end-of-the-year-as-we-know-it/#comment-122084

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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124 Responses to Iran / Iraq News Thread

  1. E.M.Smith says:

    It would probably be good to tag references to particular groups with an I-ran or U-SA or S-audi alignment indicator.

    Things like “PMU forces” don’t tell me who’s side they are on. I U S or ira-Q…

    FWIW, there was a story some months ago that Trump told the Saudis to clean up their neighborhood if they wanted to… so some of the action might be Saudi, or even Israeli.

    I could easily see Trump greenlighting a “Y’all come” BYOB Party (bring your own bombs) Iran BBQ.

  2. E.M.Smith says:

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/rockets-target-baghdad-green-zone-base-housing-troops-200104175916421.html

    Trump warns 52 sites targeted if Iran retaliates over Soleimani
    Warning followed rocket attacks on Green Zone and Iraqi base housing US troops, after US kills senior Iranian commander.

    9 hours ago
    US President Donald Trump has threatened to hit 52 Iranian sites “very hard” if Iran attacked Americans or United States assets following a US raid on Friday that killed head of the Quds Force Qassem Soleimani and an Iraqi militia leader.

    Showing no sign of an effort to ease tensions in the region, Trump took to Twitter to warn that the US had “targeted 52 Iranian sites” and that some were “at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD.”

    “The USA wants no more threats!” Trump said.

    Sounds like a pretty clear notice of kinetic response as needed…

    Now we find out how emotion driven are the Iranian leadership…

    FWIW, I’ve found Al Jazeera has pretty deep coverage when things go sideways in the region.

    More here:

    https://www.aljazeera.com/topics/country/iran.html

  3. E.M.Smith says:

    Reading between the lines here:
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/aftermath-soleimani-killing-raid-latest-updates-200104061026015.html
    you can get a bit of the sense of who is one who’s side. Who is talking to whom and who is making nasty noises about the USA et. al.

  4. Larry Ledwick says:

    Ref PMU ( I/Q )
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Popular_Mobilization_Forces

    It is an official umbrella organization of Iraqi militias but is dominated by Shia (Iran influenced) groups (ie such as the Mahadi army militia – Jaish al-Mahdi (JAM), also known as the Mahdi Army or Mahdi Militia (Arabic جيش المهدي), was an Iraqi paramilitary force created by the Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr in June 2003
    One of their groups was responsible for the attack that killed a US contractor and started this pissing contest – but like all things in the middle east ( it’s complicated ).
    Alliances shift with the wind (or the check book over there)

  5. Larry Ledwick says:

    Mohsen Rezaei (secretary of Iran’s Expediency Council): We will definitely proceed, but I advise our people to be patient. Military action must be carefully planned, and the more planning, the more painful our retaliation.

    An attack has already occurred in Kenya
    https://news.yahoo.com/al-shabaab-jihadists-attack-us-kenya-military-065135417.html

  6. E.M.Smith says:

    I’d be quite happy if Trump gave the Saudi Sunni faction the “go ahead” to clean up the region and invited Israel to bomb anything they didn’t like too. Nuke them to oblivion is that’s what it takes. I see no reason to continue another 1400 years of terrorism.

    IF they would just leave us alone, I’d be all for leaving them alone. But this tendency to go all kinetic at the drop of an insult (or the removal of someone doing the pot stirring Jihad hatching) is just going to result in some folks patience running out. The old “Nuke ’em if you got em” permission being given to the locals…

    Per the thesis that Trump is going to leverage this for a way to withdraw our troops: One can only hope so. It’s become relatively clear that under Globalist Presidents (Bush the Elder, Obama) our military was being used mostly to destabilize governments and drive “refugees” into the west for purposes of demographic replacement. IMHO, that’s just evil. If Trump can reverse that, I’m all for it.

    We don’t need or use oil from the Middle East. Let the Europeans, Chinese, Japanese et. al. deal with the place. Not My Problem.

    Though I could see knocking out the key Iranian oil & military facilities before handing it over to the EU / China / Japan to make it easier for them… And I’d start by dropping some bits on their “Planners” in their current planning huddles…

  7. Larry Ledwick says:

    There were several reports that there were B-52’s spotted today on station over Iraq, that suggests about 40,000 pounds of ordinance on call any time they need it.

    If Iran is stupid and makes a run at shipping in the gulf or directly at US military vessels I suspect they are going to lose all their radar sites, 90% of their air force and 80% of their Navy in about 3 hours.The majority of the communications infrastructure etc.

    They will also likely lose some of the fortified islands that they have out in the gulf, no need to invade, just pound them to dust.
    Sink some ships in their major ports and take out the loading facilities and their major military barracks and weapons stores.

    Then send them a telegram that says “that’s one”

    There are also probably one or more fast attack boats sitting in wait for their submarines too.

  8. Larry Ledwick says:

    Ref the red flags flown over the major Mosques.
    Temple Phantom
    ‏@Temple_Phantom
    14 hours ago

    Replying to @majorgauravarya
    Does Red Flag just mean alert or that war has started?

    Zravasya Achintya
    ‏@ZAchintaya
    14 hours ago

    Red flags in Shiite tradition symbolise both blood spilled unjustly and serve as a call to avenge a person who is slain.

    Anuj Maheshwari
    ‏@AnujMaheshwari0
    14 hours ago
    Replying to @majorgauravarya
    For those who of you don’t know

    It’s the flag of revenge (war) with “Yalasarat al-Hussein” written on it.
    Signifies, something severe violence is going to happen.

    FYI it is just after noon in Iraq.

  9. Simon Derricutt says:

    I’m hearing on F24 that Iraq has announced some days of official mourning for the general(s). This doesn’t appear to me to be the action of an ally of the USA. Could be a pointer to Iraq possibly asking the USA to leave Iraq at some point soon, which in turn would lead to Iran effectively taking over Iraq. Given the oil production in the USA now, there’s maybe no reason for the USA to stay in the region, apart from supporting the Saudis which may just be in supply of war materiel they can’t easily make themselves.

    Doesn’t sound like it will be at all pleasant for the Iraqi people. It seems to me that a lot of the Middle East only works well with a “strong man” government where Western levels of human rights don’t apply. We’ve been messing around there destabilising such repressive governments, but that’s maybe not the right thing to do – maybe better to let them work it out themselves and have the government they prefer (or at least what works best for them). And of course carry a big stick if they try to spread those ideas outside their region. It seems democracies in that region are unstable because the culture requires an absolute leader. People vote on tribal lines, rather than the policies or aptitude of the candidates, so even when they use the tools of democracy the results are warring factions, since for democracy to work it is required that the losers go along with the majority decisions. Given recent event in the West (Trump impeachment, Brexit, Northern Ireland) it seems we’re not doing that well at that, either.

    Personally, I’ve never understood why we didn’t support Bashar al-Assad in Syria, since he was the official government and had a lot of popular support. Yep, he’s been repressive on enemies of the state, but that seems to be the price that needs to be paid for having a stable government in that region. I’m not however expecting to see any turnaround in policies here.

  10. jim2 says:

    n the first hints of a possible retaliatory response, two mortar rounds hit an area near the US embassy in Baghdad on Saturday, security sources told AFP.

    Almost simultaneously, two rockets slammed into the Al-Balad airbase where American troops are deployed, security sources said.

    The Iraqi military confirmed the missile attacks in Baghdad and on al-Balad and said there were no casualties.

    While no one claimed the attacks, a hardline pro-Iran faction in Iraq’s Hashed al-Shaabi military network shortly after urged Iraqis to move away from US forces.

    “We ask security forces in the country to get at least 1,000 meters away from US bases starting on Sunday at 5:00pm (1400 GMT),” said Kataeb Hezbollah.

    https://www.breitbart.com/news/missiles-hit-green-zone-and-iraq-base-housing-us-troops-security-sources/

  11. Simon Derricutt says:

    Maybe a link to the F24 article would be useful: https://www.france24.com/en/20200104-thousands-gather-in-baghdad-to-mourn-iranian-general-killed-in-us-airstrike . Search on Iraq morning and the number varies from thousands to tens of thousands.

  12. p.g.sharrow says:

    Just one more battle in an over 40 year war. At one time 7 Muslim nations were poised to join in a Pan Arab War to drive Westerners from the Middle East and eradicate Israel. Now only one is left that is desperately trying to gather the remnants together into one last push against America and her allies. “We will attach and destroy You all !” they screech. It is their world that is being destroyed. Plunged into a chaos of sectarian violence of groups fighting groups over the fragments of the Empire of Islam.

    Persian prophecy says that when their world is destroyed the 12th Imam will appear and teach them a new path to walk, The 12th Imam walks with Jesus.

    It is said that when Muslim mothers love their children more then they hate Jews they will end this war against Israel. …pg

  13. Larry Ledwick says:

    Simon Derricutt says:
    5 January 2020 at 11:35 am
    It seems to me that a lot of the Middle East only works well with a “strong man” government where Western levels of human rights don’t apply.

    When I was in high school I was on the debate team and our topic that year was whether or not US military assistance should be continued. After a year of studying the topic and all that was going on (mostly in the middle east and south east asia [Vietnam] and a bit in South America) I came to the same conclusion.

    Modern stable democratic governments can only exist in cultures that do not endorse or encourage tribal or blood vendetta behavior.

    A successful modern democratic government requires some significant restraint to that sort of behavior, and more importantly a live and let live attitude, which is conspicuously missing in that part of the world. Unfortunately that live and let live attitude is now degrading rapidly in the major industrialized countries with PC pushing toward a Take offense and punish attitude to all things that do not agree with your personal belief system. It is trying to create a divided culture where there is a PC tribe that enforces conformance with their dogma and all others are evil or stupid and need “guidance”. That is a recipe for chaos.

    The SJW types need to be pushed back into the fringes of our society where extremist groups normally have resided, reluctantly tolerated but not encouraged, and the butt of jokes rather than role models.

  14. E.M.Smith says:

    Al Jazeera TV reporting that the Iraq Parliament has voted that foreign forces ought to leave,

    BUT the vote is not binding on the government,

    AND the session was boycotted by the Kurds snd Sunni factions…

    leaving Shia?

  15. Larry Ledwick says:

    Imam of Peace / Pray for Peace…
    ‏Verified account
    @Imamofpeace
    6 minutes ago

    #BREAKING: The Expediency Discernment Council of Iran says that “Iran will respond militarily; and if the USA responds militarily, they will bomb Israel, starting with Haifa.”

    Al-Jazeera is having fun broadcasting this speech in loops! Pathetic!

    Pray for peace 🤲🏼

    Imam of Peace / Pray for Peace…
    ‏Verified account
    @Imamofpeace
    11 minutes ago

    #BREAKING: Iran says it will enrich uranium “without restrictions according to its needs”

  16. E.M.Smith says:

    @Simon:

    IMHO, the reason we didn’t leave Syria alone was because the Globalists and Soros do not want ANY nation that is not theirs to control so all such must be destabilized, plus factor being they can then run the “refugees” into Europe and North America to desabilze those nations. Paving the way for Central Authority Forceful Global Governance….

    BTW, Democracy is never a stable form of government. That is why we have a Republic. Now we democratically select our representatives, but originally Senators were selected by the States as State representatives and we were less prone to stupidity then (though maybe a bit more corruption of favors).

    Per Iraq, remember that it has competing factions of Sunni & Kurds who love what was done, and Shia who are pissed. They are not one people, and there is a hundreds of years blood fued between them. In that context, one group can not accept the other making the decisions.

    “Democracy is 2 wolves and a sheep voting on what’s for lunch.”

    @Larry L.:

    The push back has started. See the Gervais fuss and he is still hosting Globe awards, and J.K. Rowling not apologizing. Folks have caught on to just telling the SJWs to go pound sand, and some (Chapelle) are actively poking at it.

  17. Larry Ledwick says:

    Imam of Peace / Pray for Peace…
    ‏Verified account
    @Imamofpeace
    24 minutes ago
    More
    My sources in Baghdad (government officials) say they have intelligence reports that there will be strikes in Baghdad very soon. But the Iranian-backed political parties don’t want to announce this to the public so they can still use citizens as human shields…

    Pray for peace🤲🏼

    I use the phrase “modenr democratic government” to include all the various styles or parlimentary / republican forms of government (including the nominal monarchy of Britian) as opposed to theocracies, and dictator ships, and other forms of totalitarian governments, only Switzerland has anything close to a true democracy and it is very strongly constrained by social norms and long standing traditions of behavior. If it was a diverse society that did not share norms it would collapse in very short order.

    http://direct-democracy.geschichte-schweiz.ch/

  18. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like it has started
    Imam of Peace / Pray for Peace…
    ‏Verified account
    @Imamofpeace
    4 minutes ago (19:44 UTC)
    MoreImam of Peace / Pray for Peace… Retweeted Imam of Peace / Pray for Peace…
    #BREAKING: ROCKETS ARE LANDING ON THE GREEN ZONE IN BAGHDAD NEAR THE US EMBASSY. NOW. 🚨

    Turn notifications on. My sources are on the ground and inside the green zone.

  19. Larry Ledwick says:

    #BREAKING: Picture just in. 3 rockets landed within the vicinity of the US embassy in the Green Zone.

    (I have to crop the pictures for safety reasons. The journalists showing LIVE photos of buildings are indirectly/unintentionally telling terrorists to adjust their aim!) DONT!

    Imam of Peace / Pray for Peace…
    ‏Verified account
    @Imamofpeace
    45 seconds ago
    More
    #BREAKING: 3 rockets landed within the vicinity of the US embassy in the Green Zone. Alert sirens are on (they have been going on and off all day.)

    Pray for peace. 🤲🏼

  20. E.M.Smith says:

    I’d not want to play chess against Trump.

    Faced with a slowly festering mess poisoning the region, he knows it needs to be addressed, but wants our guys out of it. So whack the chief whacko, Now it either blows up, surfacing the opponent, and you can fix it; or the world demands you leave (and you get what you want, making it their problem).

    A well played Knight Fork.

    Break it, so someone finally fixes it, or get it off your plate.

  21. E.M.Smith says:

    Completely lacking military sense, Lizzy Warren is pushing “Why Now?” “Wag the Dog” story. (Via Sky UK).

    Well, Lizzy, “why” is because the idiot was stirring up an attack on us and was idiot enough to get where we could whack him. Target of opportunity in a group trying to destroy us.

  22. Larry Ledwick says:

    Probably related
    US service member and 2 defense contractors killed , 2 others wounded in Kenya attack.
    https://www.africom.mil/media-room/pressrelease/32493/attack-at-manda-bay-airfield-kenya

  23. Larry Ledwick says:

    mam of Peace / Pray for Peace…
    ‏Verified account
    @Imamofpeace
    6 minutes ago
    More
    Expect clashes in the next 48-72 hours. Several high ranking political and religious figures (the type to get notified first) have travelled to remote areas with their families.

    Israel isn’t tolerating anything, it has eyes on Syria and Iran like no tomorrow.

    Pray for peace 🤲🏼

  24. Larry Ledwick says:

    thebradfordfile™
    ‏@thebradfordfile
    60 minutes ago
    More
    Iran put an $80 million bounty on Trump’s head for killing Soleimani. And where do you think that cash came from?

    Barack Hussein Obama

  25. Larry Ledwick says:

    An interesting thought is that the current situation would be an ideal circumstance to unveil a secret weapon system. There has been discussion for 10-20 years about conventional warheads for the sub launched nuclear ICBM birds.

    There are a couple hints that they might in fact exist.

    https://www.military.com/defensetech/2010/04/12/gates-says-u-s-has-conventionally-armed-icbms

    Conventional Trident (source wiki) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trident_(missile)
    The Pentagon proposed the Conventional Trident Modification program in 2006 to diversify its strategic options,[19] as part of a broader long-term strategy to develop worldwide rapid strike capabilities, dubbed “Prompt Global Strike”.

    The US$503 million program would have converted existing Trident II missiles (presumably two missiles per submarine) into conventional weapons, by fitting them with modified Mk4 reentry vehicles equipped with GPS for navigation update and a reentry guidance and control (trajectory correction) segment to perform 10 m class impact accuracy. No explosive is said to be used since the reentry vehicle’s mass and hypersonic impact velocity provide sufficient mechanical energy and “effect”. The second conventional warhead version is a fragmentation version that would disperse thousands of tungsten rods which could obliterate an area of 3000 square feet. (approximately 280 square meters). [20] It offered the promise of accurate conventional strikes with little warning and flight time.

    The primary drawback of using conventionally tipped ballistic missiles is that they are virtually impossible for radar warning systems to distinguish from nuclear-tipped missiles. This leaves open the likelihood that other nuclear-armed countries might mistake it for a nuclear launch which could provoke a counterattack. For that reason among others, this project raised a substantial debate before US Congress for the FY07 Defense budget, but also internationally.[21] Russian President Vladimir Putin, among others, warned that the project would increase the danger of accidental nuclear war. “The launch of such a missile could … provoke a full-scale counterattack using strategic nuclear forces,” Putin said in May 2006.[22]

    It would also have tremendous psychological value, as the target would realize that only by the grace of POTUS it was not a nuclear warhead.

    Great way to send an unambiguous message.

    For countries with out major long range anti-missile over the horizon radar systems, they would be struck essentially with zero warning. Their conventional radar systems would only detect the warhead on its final approach at 18,000+ mph during the reentry phase as it crossed into the normal radar protection zone.

  26. Larry Ledwick says:

    By the way the post above “Expect clashes in the next 48-72 hours.” was just retweeted by the POTUS press secretary an hour ago.

  27. E.M.Smith says:

    Sargon of Akkad, 2 hours ago, includes copy of an Arabic language Tweet saying big flight of US Planes over Baghdad and a POTUS Tweet to serve as notice to Congress he will respond as needed.
    First Twitter War with real weapons?

  28. E.M.Smith says:

    I wonder if the Iraqi Shia push for the USA to pull out, will result in the Sunni & Kurdish areas splitting off as their own countries under US Protection?

    Annex the Sunni bit to Saudi and make it their protectorate, then carve any Kurdish bit off of Syria to make a greater Kurdistan. It would end a lot of the internal strains in thise countries at the risk if external…

    What force holds Iraq together? Any?

  29. E.M.Smith says:

    The “remote areas” bit would make an interesting demonstration of our abilities. A few selected remote areas with a precision impactor….

    The Little Schiff is on Fox talking dirt about Pompeo and the virtue of taking out Sulimani. Lying little weasel to the end.

  30. Larry Ledwick says:

    The only issue with that move would be it would really irritate the Turks who have a large Kurdish minority in the eastern end of their country. They would probably see it as a provocation but you are right it would in the long run greatly help things if the tribal ethnic districts matched up with political boundaries.

  31. philjourdan says:

    @Simon Derricutt – Re: Assad

    The reason is long. Before, there was Israel and those against (neighbors). We supported Israel, the USSR supported those against. Then the USSR went away, Iran went away (replaced by the Holy Moley Terrorist regime) and Iraq went away. And Egypt long ago signed a peace treaty (they are not Arab after all).

    But to the globalists, nothing changed. So we still supported Israel, but Syria has its own problems. And Bushes and Obamas tried to turn Syria into another Libya. But failed due to impotent red lines. So that enraged the Globalists (how could any country defy the anointed one!). But Assad had to go for embarrassing the anointed one.

    Then along comes Trump. Trump has not really been trying to get rid of Assad (he took out an airbase when Obama’s Red Line was crossed AGAIN – but here is the kicker which Trump has realized since then – the ones that gave him the intel are the same ones that are hip deep in the coup.

    Since then, Trump has not said word one about Assad. Trump does not care who rules Syria, only that they keep their aggression internal – which Assad is doing. Trump wanted ISIS gone, so did Assad. Assad does not have the resources to play terrorism around the globe (like Iran), as he is fighting a civil war at home.

    Since Assad is aligned with Iran (he needed someone), Trump will not wrap his arms around him. But neither will Trump do thing one to get rid of him.

    So, the US did not support Assad because – First Israel, then Obama. It does not now because of the link to Iran. But the US also is no longer involved in Regime change as it was under Obama.

  32. jim2 says:

    Feb 20 crude oil futures up 5% in 2 days due to latest ME activity.

  33. Larry Ledwick says:

    More
    #Japan PM: We will ensure the safety of Japanese ships in the #MiddleEast by deploying a self-defense force. (@SkyNewsArabia_B) @TheWarMonitor

    Covfefe Winston 007

    @RockyWinston007
    13 hours ago
    More
    The UK defended the actions of the Trump admin in Iran, saying the U.S. is “entitled to defend itself” against Iranian aggression & deploying the Royal Navy to the Persian Gulf to protect shipping vessels flying the British flag.
    You don’t see this on #MSM

    Breaking911
    ‏@Breaking911

    DEVELOPING: #Baghdad Residents Report MASSIVE Air Presence By U.S. Military Following Rocket Attacks Near American Embassy

    thebradfordfile™
    ‏@thebradfordfile
    8 hours ago

    Iran put an $80 million bounty on Trump’s head for killing Soleimani. And where do you think that cash came from?

    Barack Hussein Obama

    US-Botschaft Berlin
    ‏Verified account
    @usbotschaft

    .@BILD (Germany’s most-read newspaper): “@POTUS has freed the world of a monster whose aim in life was an atomic cloud over Tel Aviv. Trump has acted in self-defense – the self-defense of the US and all peace-loving people.”

  34. Steven Fraser says:

    I smiled when I read that the ‘secretary of Iran’s Expediency Council’ was recommending ‘patience’. Somehow, that seems on the other end of the urgency scale from ‘Expedience’.

  35. Steven Fraser says:

    Smiled again when I saw the nametag on the Sergeant … Bellavia. Means ‘Beautiful Life’

  36. Larry Ledwick says:

    Some activity may be going on in Iraq against Pro-Iran forces

  37. Larry Ledwick says:

    It has started:

  38. E.M.Smith says:

    I suspect the standing orders are that if the “revenge” just puts some holes in the ground or blows up some hardware, ignore it, let them vent. That might end it. OTOH, if it is effective and anyone gets killed, let loose the dogs of war…

    That’s the order I’d give… and so far Trump has not surprised me.

  39. E.M.Smith says:

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/dozens-killed-stampede-soleimani-funeral-iran-state-tv-200107093406578.html

    Has a news crawler also saying ‘tens’ of rockets fired at US Air base.

    The article itself is interesting… and makes me wonder what a pack of fire crackers could accomplish in one of these crowds…

  40. Larry Ledwick says:

    Sources mentioned above are pointing out that some of these rocket pictures are actually recycled images from prior attacks, but that the reported strikes are real. Something like 60 missiles fired at last count.

    USAF aircraft supposedly took off from UAE a little while ago.

    Israel Breaking
    ‏@IsraelBreaking
    19 minutes ago
    More
    BREAKING: US Jets seen taking off from UAE. Iranian news media reporting Iran will also target UAE if US jets strike Iran that originated from UAE.

    Israel Breaking
    ‏@IsraelBreaking
    5 minutes ago
    More
    BREAKING: Iranian fighter jets take off from bases in Iran.

    @IsraelBreaking
    13 minutes ago

    BREAKING: A new round of rockets being fired from Iran toward US bases being reported now. Local Iranian civilians report rockets overhead and news agencies reporting a second wave of attacks has just started after a first starting around an hour ago.

    Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸
    ‏@JackPosobiec

    Hearing more than just F-35s are taking off

  41. E.M.Smith says:

    FOX reporting the missile atack too. Up on a Fox Youtube too as of an hour ago.

    Looks like Iran is about to get pounded. Trump doesn’t bluff and doesn’t back down. (And that’s a good thing…)

  42. Larry Ledwick says:

    I have been looking at sunrise sun set times and moonrise moonset times.

    Moon is nearly full moon set is around 3:30 am, it is currently about 05:15, and sunrise is at 07:15 am. So there has been ideal conditions for stealth aircraft to operate for 1:45 min now, but the window is closing rapidly. If they directly strike Iran it will be in the very near future. There were reports of Iran air craft aloft a while ago, they might wait until they get bingo fuel and land, but what ever happens under cover of darkness has already happened or will in the next hour or so.

    Time will tell, fllight time for B-52 from Diego Garcia is about 5 hours or so I understand so they may be getting close enough to launch stand off weapons.

  43. E.M.Smith says:

    Normal order of battle would have AWACS up (probably already on station after the embassy hit), identifying source of launches, then ECM “Wild Weasel” type capabilities up as Stealth fighter bombers start taking out launch sites, antiair radars and systems, and airfields.

    Not sure how drones will figure into it… or just how much excess response over proportional would be selected.

    Fox News Now (Fox10 Phoenix) has a live scene with the White House, Congress and some street in three panels, nobody talking, and a crawler saying missiles fired at US. Base.

    I’m going to cycle back to Al Jazeera for the Arab leaning Shiia POV. Then maybe Israeli news.

  44. Larry Ledwick says:

    The other possibility is that there is some behind the curtain staging going on.

    Imam of Peace / Pray for Peace…
    ‏Verified account
    @Imamofpeace
    3 minutes ago
    More
    This is being repeated a lot by Middle East journalists: “Tehran told Washington DC through proxies that it will bomb US bases in Iraq to save face and claim it is a response for killing Soleimani. That’s why the USA emptied its bases hours before the attacks. Zero casualties.”

  45. E.M.Smith says:

    It is possible our jets are only doing prevent to assure no Iranian air gets to do anything, and the counter will come after some deliberation. If the rockets accomplish nothing but hokes in the dirt, Trump might lay back a while…

  46. I’m curious, is everything time stamped in the Iranian Time Zone? As I write this it is 9:12 PM EST (Vermont) but I’m sure something very different will show as “post ” time.

    Please let me know, thanks!

    Reply:[ I run the blog on UTC / GMT. no idea what TZ is used for tweets and such. -EMS ]

  47. Ossqss says:

    I suspect the anti-missle missles worked. JMHO after seeing things the last hour across platforms.

  48. Ossqss says:

    I would also think drones have already played a significant role for both sides of the equation.

  49. E.M.Smith says:

    Al Jazeera has video of the burial of Soleimani, happening now.

    Had The Donald really wanted to mix it up, that would be a big smoking hole…

    The timing does lend credence to the notion of an ineffectual but highly symbolic “revenge” face savings move. The successor to S. is pledging to drive US forces from the region. Essentially what Trump wants…

    FWIW, A.J. reported from the base in Iraq that there are no deaths, but perhaps some Iraqis injured.

  50. E.M.Smith says:

    Why do I get the feeling that The Donald is shouting “Don’t you dare throw me in that Briar Patch” while so arranging things that the Democrats and Iraqis demand he withdraw the troops… that he wants to withdraw…

  51. E.M.Smith says:

    Javad Zarif, foreign minister of Iran, tweeted that they undertook and concluded a propotional response…

    (Tweet shown on A.J. so that’s a paraphrase from memory of most of it)

    Sure sounds like they want to be done with the face save, even if not effective.

  52. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like this was a dog and pony show attack to save face with their militant wing.
    Current reports is Iran fired about 15 missiles, 4 were duds and only about 10 struck their target.

    Reports about Iranian air force airborne over Iraq appear to be false they are only flying perimeter patrols, guarding their air space.

    No details so far on US aircraft, earlier reports on F-35 and B-52 neither confirmed or denied.
    F-35 is a great sensor platform so they might have just been taking notes on who is doing what for future attack planning. This sort of situation provides a good opportunity to gather electronic signature and patterns for later analysis.

  53. Larry Ledwick says:

    Ten minutes ago from the President

    Donald J. Trump
    ‏Verified account
    @realDonaldTrump
    10 minutes ago
    More
    All is well! Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good! We have the most powerful and well equipped military anywhere in the world, by far! I will be making a statement tomorrow morning.

  54. Larry Ledwick says:

    We at this point also cannot rule out the possibility that some very covert op was carried out in Iran with stealth aircraft that sent a big message (like take out one of their “secret” undeclared nuclear facilities. that the Iranians would never announce to the public) as a warning shot across their bow.

  55. E.M.Smith says:

    A.J. had a guy on (located in the USA) describing the idea that Iran used missiles “accurate enough” to avoid hitting the US parts of the two bases hit, so as to save face while also not poking the bear.

    Guess we find out tomorrow. But looks like fireworks are over for today.

    The “secret santa hit” to a “hidden” base could be, but would show on a lot of satellites, so would be surfaced pretty quick if anyone had a benefit from that…

  56. E.M.Smith says:

    Tee Hee! The A.J. White House correspondent is reporting that the Press Office is closed up and dark, the V.P. has left and gone home, and the only info is coming from Trump tweeting from the residence.

    Sure sounds like nothing going down ;-)

  57. philjourdan says:

    I think A.J. got it right. As did most of you. Iran threw some missiles over, did no real damage and can crow to their own about it. Since no one got hurt, Trump will ignore it.

  58. Larry Ledwick says:

    Hmmmm –
    PM Breaking News

    @PMBreakingNews
    Following @PMBreakingNews
    More
    Breaking: A Ukrainian passenger plane carrying up to 180 people has crashed near Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport. Initial local media reports indicate that the crash occurred due to technical issues and went down minutes after take-off.

  59. Larry Ledwick says:

    Video purported to be of the plane that crashed in Iran.

  60. E.M.Smith says:

    Akkad has an interesting take on the take down of Soleimani

  61. Larry Ledwick says:

    Best guess from the flight data is Iranian air defense may have shot it down.

    Sudden termination of telemetry at 7,925 ft altitude.

  62. Larry Ledwick says:

    There are posts appearing on twitter saying Iran shot the airliner down (almost certainly accidentally) Ironically similar to the accidental shoot down of an Iranian plane by the US during high alert conditions years ago when they misidentified it as a military plane.

  63. Power Grab says:

    Some parties on Twitter were saying that if we pull out, we need to make sure our materiel is dozed. I reckon throwing bombs at it can accomplish the same thing.

  64. E.M.Smith says:

    Trump is not the sort to leave a lot of value behind. In any pullout, he will have a repatriation of equipment. Concrete and buildings don’t matter though.

  65. beththeserf says:

    “All is well.” :) Soleimani the destabler is gone. Better for Iran… better for the West. Both sides hafta strut their stuff, some displays of bluff, but maybe both sides feel relieved. Peace not on the table while Soleimani pursued HIS war program.

  66. H.R. says:

    Larry L: “There are posts appearing on twitter saying Iran shot the airliner down (almost certainly accidentally)”

    Well, an airliner sorta looks like a B52 to a high-strung, nervous, and on high-alert Iranian soldier who happens to have a shoulder-fired SAM.

    I suppose that plane was loaded with Ukrainians who were being evacuated out of a potential firestorm by their government.

    Certainly Tehran approved a safe takeoff and passage through their airspace so they could get the heck out of Dodge. Probably gave everyone in the region, including us, a heads-up that a neutral airliner would be coming out of their airspace.

    Obviously, not everyone got the message.

  67. Larry Ledwick says:

    Full passenger info not available yet but apparently some “Iranian students and professors” (cover back story for operatives??) headed to Canada were on board.

  68. Larry Ledwick says:

    Reuters is claiming it was engine failure.

  69. H.R. says:

    Engine failure… yeah… sure… uh-huh… that’s the ticket… engine failure…

    Wait up. That might be perfectly true. The engine may have failed after sucking in a SAM.

  70. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well this pretty well confirms the suspicions of an accidental shoot down.
    I would not be surprised to see video of the shoot down show up on wikileaks in a couple days after it gets smuggled out of the country.

    https://www.foxnews.com/world/iran-refuses-give-black-box-ukrainian-plane-boeing-tehran-crash

  71. Larry Ledwick says:

    Rough breakdown of nationalities of the passengers on board flight PS752

  72. Larry Ledwick says:

    And on a “lighter” note only remotely related but good for a chuckle.

    https://jonathanturley.org/2020/01/08/british-man-lights-his-head-on-fire-in-attempting-to-burn-down-synagogue/

  73. H.R. says:

    Regarding the airliner, I think just about every country that is somehow tied to the Iran mess, for or against, is interested in keeping things from escalating. That shootdown was a major oops and Iran’s denial says to me that they didn’t plan or sanction the action. Whoever pushed the “Fire” button has probably been dead for several hours now.

    I’m pretty sure every country’s official stance will be “Tragic engine failure accident” regardless of any evidence contrary to that narrative that shows up on the internet or any other news medium.

    I could easily be wrong, but it wouldn’t surprise me a bit if everyone holds the line on the engine failure story to keep things from escalating. Since no Americans were involved, even President Trump may not do much more than extend his sympathies to the victims’ families and leave it to the countries that are involved to sort it all out.

    We shall see.

  74. E.M.Smith says:

    I don’t buy engine “failure” at all. The 737 can have full engine failure and it still flies. They have had engines fall off and they still fly. With full power loss, a small windmill auto drops below the fuselage that generates electricity so they still fly.

    IF an engine blows up, it can break windows and kill a couple of people, and it still flies.

    Crashes have happened ftom a bad jack screw in the tail (very early on), and from the MCAS Failure on the redesigned MAX (now out of service pending fix).

    But engines are optional in flight. Ask any glider pilot.

    Now if you can get the engine to take out a wing or redundant controls, maybe, but I don’t think that is possible.

    I see two more likely scenarios.

    1) The accidental Iranian “own goal” shoot down.

    2) The “Professors & students” were really undercover operatives with multiple nations passports, being dispatched to do mayhem revenge, the USA had covert intel, and a stealth shootdown happened. Then a back channel “naughty naughty” message sent with a “suggestion” to cut it out… or have more.

    Of those two, IMHO #1 is by far more likely, but I like the “story” of #2 more.

  75. E.M.Smith says:

    I’ve read all of the crash list:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incidents_involving_the_Boeing_737

    Many of unstated cause. Some of those were the later discovered jack screw issue. Many early crashes were hijacking. Some later ones were hull fracture failures (metal fatgue cracking).

    I saw two engine failure crashes. One where the pilots, unfamiliar with the aircraft, shut off the good engine after the other failed, then didn’t do a good job of being glider pilots. The other lost both engines from injesting FOD on takeoff. NOT the time to suddenly become a glider. “Return to runway” is very challenging in any aircraft.

  76. E.M.Smith says:

    Fox news now live says POTUS address to nation “soon”. Other talking heads on niw.

  77. H.R. says:

    @E.M. – I like your #2 scenario too, and I don’t buy “engine failure” for a minute, either.

    So even if #2 is true, everyone will still hold the line on “engine failure.”

    If #2 is true the U.S. won’t talk because, “message sent,” and it looked like Iran is to blame, anyway. Iran won’t talk because they can’t admit to a planeload of jihadists. The other countries won’t talk because there’s no one at home that’s going to be squawking to their governments about their loved ones being shot down.

    So there’s the tell if your #2 is true. There will be no uproar from the ‘families’ of the victims because there were no actual families to raise a fuss. We shall see.

  78. H.R. says:

    For those who haven’t cruised any news site yet today, President Trump will be addressing the U.S. today at 11;00 U.S. Eastern Standard Time.
    .
    .
    .
    Now that I think about it, E.M.’s #2 can’t be true. I believe the 9 crew on board were not Iranian so I don’t see President Trump giving the order to take out uninvolved innocents. I haven’t seen prior evidence that he rolls that way.

  79. A C Osborn says:

    EM surely the 737 didn’t suffer the same sort of problem as the De Havilland Comet back in the 50s.
    Haven’t the Engineers learn’t what to look out for in all that time?

  80. YMMV says:

    Iran is no longer claiming it was engine failure. The tell against that is that communication was lost. Those black boxes are valuable evidence. The video shows it burning, still apparently flying (not falling) into the ground and then exploding when it hits the ground. Not blown up mid-flight, just disabled.

  81. Larry Ledwick says:

    If you have not seen the full presentation of the President’s comments on Iran, this video is the full unedited content of his comments.

    https://cdn.jwplayer.com/players/kP3lMIZC-HWSueGzu.html

    There were a few interesting items in it. His stressing that the US is no longer dependent on Mid eastern Oil production and comments to NATO likely were a “it’s your problem now take care of your own problems” notice.

    It was also the first specific commentary I have seen, which explicitly stating that the US is producing hypersonic weapons. In the past discussion has been made about our R&D efforts but no specific announcements on actual operational versions in production.

    He also indirectly talked to the Iranian protesters and moderate leaders in Iran implying that he is working to see that they succeed without specifically calling for the collapse of the current regime.

    I also as noted above consider the #2 possibility that and F-35 took down a plane load of operatives as a possible and appealing likelihood. It would be especially effective if it was a plane load of relatives of the leadership or undercover operators dispersing across Europe to cause trouble. Either would send a very strong message that the US is inside your information loop and we can take direct action any time we want to.

    Lot of folks talking about the “earthquakes” reported near Iranian nuclear facilities. I cannot conceive of any way that they could make a surface strike appear to be a geological event at 10 km depth. The collapse of the testing facility in Korea clearly was identified by world wide seismic networks as being at very shallow depth, so I do not think they were anything but natural events, barring future evidence that might show that something else happened.

    There was talk of designing an earth penetrating low yield nuclear warhead to “dig out” deeply buried facilities. To my knowledge (at least outside the black budget) it was never approved, and the residual radiation would make it almost impossible to hide as something else. Also world wide test ban treaty violation networks would have detected it as not being seismic but having a signature characteristic of a closely coupled subterranean nuclear burst because it would be impossible to do the things testing nations try to do to reduce transmission of ground shock from a test if they were trying to hide it.

    Next few months will be interesting!

  82. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting bits here, Bellingcat is collecting images of crash debris of the PS752 crash, and their appear to be some indicators of a shoot down.

  83. jim2 says:

    Trump has executed a precision, effective, and brilliant tactical effort in the past few weeks. Once again, he shines in his job as President, in fact the best ever IMO. Once again, the Dimowits and other detractors are illuminated by a harsh light that reveals the hypocritical idiots that they in fact are. Another great day for the stock market. Another great day for the USA!

  84. E.M.Smith says:

    IIRC, we were working on a “tungsten telephone pole” that dropped from sub-orbital arrives way hypersonic, can not be stopped, penetrates to great depth, and delivers huge destructive energy.

    Not a lot of chemical signature (one element) or rocket plume, or markings, or….

    BTW, air crews are often of nationalities not matching the flag of the carrier. I’d not be surprised to find the air crew was connected to Iran. Or not. Then there’s the fact that if you know you have 60 terrorists and they average 5 innocents dead each, you trade the half dozen for the 300…

    It is also possible it was a player other than the USA (Cough, Israel…, cough, UK, … cough).

    I find the 63 “Canadians” especially suspicious. I’d love to know if they were recent “refugee” naturalized Canadians…

  85. E.M.Smith says:

    @A.C.Osborn:

    Look at the list… they thought they were good to 60,000 pressure cycles. Problems showed up in the 50,000s. Aloha Airlines lost the front 1/3 or so top (and one stewardess…) but still landed OK.

    Seems the constant pressure cycling of a dozen 20 minute flights a day aged it faster than expected… Longer haul routes were less problematic.

  86. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like their is a field available (circa 1997) earth penetrating nuclear device (although relatively high yield)
    The B61-11 is a shock hardened variant of the much older B61 warhead design.

    If detonated at a depth of 4 ft with 10 kt yield the shock wave can crush a structure at 100 meter depth.

    In tests the bomb penetrates only 20 feet into dry earth, even when dropped from altitudes above 40,000 feet. But even this shallow penetration before detonation allows a much higher proportion of the explosion to transferred into ground shock relative to a surface burst. It is not able to counter targets deeply buried under granite rock. Moreover, it has a high yield, in the hundreds of kilotons. If used in North Korea, the radioactive fallout could drift over nearby countries such as Japan.
    https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/systems/b61-11.htm

    {speculation}

    There have been warheads designed to counter reactive armor on tanks which has two charges, the first is a shaped charge which fires moments before impact and directs a plasma jet of molten metal toward the tank detonating the reactive armor, then moments later the main charge detonates piercing the tank armor with a larger shaped charge.

    This method could likely be used with an earth penetrating device to “pre-drill a hole” in hard rock to help the primary warhead to breach a hard over burden and achieve penetration depths it otherwise could not.

    The TOW uses such a tandem shaped charge warhead where the front shaped charge fires moments before the second clearing the way for the following shaped charge.

    Cutaway of BGM-71 TOW warhead

    There are also other interesting developments in high tech shaped charges which it would seem could be used to enhance the penetration of an earth penetrating device.

    (very interesting chemistry and dynamics involved in this one)
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6747985/

  87. Larry Ledwick says:

    Drat only got the thumbnail image on the TOW warhead try this:
    larger cut away image of the TOW tandem warhead

  88. Larry Ledwick says:

    Based on the missile component photographed at the crash site this is probably the type of system that took down the PS752 Ukraine Air flight. The TOR – M1 or NATO designation SA-15 altitude and location of sudden loss of flight telemetry is well with in engagement range and altitude of this system is positioned to protect the airport the plane took off from. There are reports that locals heard the sound signature of two missile launches just before the plane was downed.

    http://www.military-today.com/missiles/tor.htm

  89. E.M.Smith says:

    Looking through the passenger list,

    The crew are clearly all Ukrainian.
    The passengers largely have regional names. Most I think are Iranian. Even those Canadians.
    The Lindberg family got wiped out, including 2 sons, about 8 &10. Raheleh looks Persian maybe? Or Arabic. Looks like a visit to the wife’s family ended badly.
    There are some other scattered Slavic and non-Persian names, but not many.

  90. p.g.sharrow says:

    It is a bit strange the large preponderance of Iranian and Canadian, students and professors in the manifest of passengers o that flight…pg

  91. p.g.sharrow says:

    from foxnews;
    All 167 passengers and nine crew members from different nations on board the plane perished, both Iranian and Ukrainian officials said. The nationalities of those dead, according to Ukraine Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko, were as follows: 82 Iranians, 63 Canadians, and 11 Ukrainians — nine of which were crew members — 10 Swedes, four Afghan, three German and three British.

  92. E.M.Smith says:

    Project Thor, Rods From God, is what I was remembering. Started in industry, moved to Sci Fi, back to a Chinese patent… Still too expensive at about $200,000,000 per rod cost to orbit. But if we can find a tungsten asteroid….

  93. Larry Ledwick says:

    Starting to get confirmation that many of those “Canadians” were Iranian expats visiting home.
    Very sad that they chose that time to fly out. But this explains the Canadian heavy passenger manifest.

    Canada is much easier to immigrate to than the US for People in the middle east, I used to work with a guy from Pakistan who had to return to Canada every 6 months to avoid problems with his immigration status. Having legal residency in Canada made it easy for him to come into the US.

  94. Larry Ledwick says:

    Video is out showing the missile strike on Ukraine Air PS752

    Going to be hard to sell a different story after this comes out. There were early reports that locals said they heard two missile launches.

  95. YMMV says:

    Interesting that this has not been more widely mentioned in the news. According to Bloomberg News, intelligence sources have told them that two missile launches were detected by a U.S. spy satellite from a known missile battery near the Tehran airport.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-09/missile-strike-seen-by-u-s-officials-as-likely-iran-crash-cause

  96. Larry Ledwick says:

    Hmmm wonder if this is for real?

  97. llanfar says:

    Cousin speculated on it yesterday. Said deep state (Khomeini proxy) wanted Soleimani supporters out – he was a nationalist.

  98. Kneel says:

    “Project Thor”
    Yeah – basically a crowbar with a small de-orbit rocket attached and enough smarts to target it pretty precisely. 5kg at 20 km/s does a lot of damage…

  99. Bill In Oz says:

    I find it perplexing that Iranians in exile because of the regime there, would want to go back there even to visit. The probability of stuff ups is very high. And this shot down Ukraine Airlines 737 just exemplifies that probability.

    I suggest that no one go there to Iran at all.

    Meanwhile here in Oz, our publicly funded Australian Brainwashing Corporation ( ABC ) has put out this ‘story’ asserting that this plane being shot down by Iran ( an accident ? ) is bad news for Trump.

    Ho hum ! Our propaganda machine grinds on with staff all suffering from TDS !

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-10/donald-trump-shares-suspicions-about-iran-air-crash/11857142

  100. jim2 says:

    I can’t believe some slug on CNN compared Soleimani’s death to that of Elvis or Princess Di. The left is now defined as “left its brains behind.”

  101. Another Ian says:

    jim2

    Try this then

    “US Democrat on CNN blames Trump for Iran shooting down a Ukrainian plane with a Russian missile”

    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/01/us-democrat-on-cnn-blames-trump-for-iran-shooting-down-a-ukrainian-plane-with-a-russian-missile.html

  102. beththeserf says:

    Some cluey observations., I surmise … https://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1215287197504458753?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

    @ 31.20… How surprised are you that the Ukraine has withdrawn its report that the Iran air crash was due to mechanical failure?

    @ 32.00 … Trump’s slurred speech … forestalling CNN Trump vendetta …Trump up all night preventing WW3.

  103. Larry Ledwick says:

    It appears there is more to the story of the Soleimani hit. He may have been intentionally outed so the US could take him out as part of internal jockeying for power and influence in Iran.

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/01/breaking-report-iran-roundup-for-january-4th-thru-9th-general-soleimani-was-betrayed-by-fellow-irgc-members/

  104. Larry Ledwick says:

    Or you can see their highly trained military in action here.

  105. Compu Gator says:

    Larry Ledwick says 5 January 2020 at 8:59 am
    There are also probably one or more fast attack boats sitting in wait for their submarines too.

    By “fast attack boats“, should I assume you refer to the U.S. newish Virginia-class subs. Or some modernized descendant of patrol-torpedo boats, perhaps the newfangled littoral-combat boats?

    Are all the Iran subs diesel-powered, or have they acquired any nuke-powered subs?

    If U.S. cargo planes suddenly begin a systematic effort to saturate Persian-Gulf waters with hydrophone arrays (buoys or otherwise), Iranian navy crews should become very afraid.

  106. E.M.Smith says:

    I would expect that the entire Red Sea, Persian / Arabian Gulf, Indian Ocean were fully equiped with hydrophones decades ago, likely from several countries…

    Since were are geared up for 1st World counter sub work, Iran ought to be easy… especially after the batteries need charging :-)

  107. Larry Ledwick says:

    The Persian gulf is a problem for submarines due to its shallow depth, so Iran has a fairly large stable of small submarines.
    They have a few kilo class attack submarines purchased from Russia (diesel electric) which in that environment are very effective, actually quieter than nuclear if well maintained and operated. But true deep water is only available near the center east and southern end of the gulf.
    Typical depths near 70 meters, on the west side it is much shallower near 24 meters.

    https://www.oceangrafix.com/chart/zoom?chart=62032

    https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/iran-submarine-capabilities/

    Our nuclear fast attack boats need deeper water to be really effective but they could wait on the bottom in the deeper parts for the larger vessels.
    Fast attack refers to any of the nuclear submarines (SSN) which have no missile tubes and are designed explicitly as hunter killer subs of surface ships and other subs.

    Seawolf class (SSN-21)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Seawolf_ Length: 353 ft

    Los Angeles class (SSN-688).
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Angeles-class_submarine Length: 362 ft

    Virgina class (SSN-774) (SSGN)
    Virgina class are cruise missile boats almost as big as the Ohio SLBM boats
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Virginia_(SSN-774) Length: 377 ft

    Ohio class. Length: 560 ft
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio-class_submarine
    both (SSBNs) – 14 boats and (SSGNs) – 4 boats
    The Ballistic missile boats, have sub launched ballistic missile tubes, those are usually referred to as “boombers” (SSBN)

    Our littoral combat surface ships were designed to operate on those relatively shallow waters but as demonstrated in the gulf war mines are huge risk for surface vessels in that area. They have not really been tested in combat so it is still a question how effective they might be.

    Most anti-submarine warfare is done by aircraft (helicopters and fixed wing) which of course requires sufficienct air superiority to be able to perform that job without interference.

  108. philjourdan says:

    @Bill in Oz – All the YSM is blaming Trump for the downing. TDS is not a rational condition. Left to its own natural conclusions, it means total surrender to whoever hates Trump more.

    IN this case the clowns in Iran.

    Fortunately, most of the US understands that the YSM is useless. And so when the democrats play to the YSM, they are not getting any support from the people because no one wants to surrender to the mad Mullahs except the demented democrats.

  109. Another Ian says:

    “For Trump, a Twelver Gun Salute”

    http://catallaxyfiles.com/2020/01/11/for-trump-a-twelver-gun-salute/

    And

    “Trump versus the Iranian dictatorship.”

    https://thepointman.wordpress.com/2020/01/09/trump-versus-the-iranian-dictatorship/

    O/T – sort of

    “Big tech versus the people.”

    https://thepointman.wordpress.com/2020/01/03/big-tech-versus-the-people/

    Has a list of alternatives – RHS and scroll down to the end

  110. jim2 says:

    @Bill in Oz – TDS is not a rational condition.

    The Dimowits even before Trump were showing signs of low level mental illness.

  111. Larry Ledwick says:

    What is scary is that this appears to be a progressive disease. Over time the cohort of folks who live in that world slowly normalize crazier and crazier thinking. At the time I thought the flower power and goofy hippy folks were a bit “touched” but in retrospect they were pretty average for the left today, while much of the more extreme left are closing in on “Helter Skelter” class thinking.

    Antifa folks are just low end “Charles Manson’ types.

    Maybe this is just a natural part of humanity culling the lunatic fringe out of the gene pool? You read about some of the stuff that happened during the periods of the black plagues, like the folks who went from town to town whipping themselves.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flagellant

    Maybe we have always had the Manson Cults, the Heaven’s gate cults, the Jim Jones cults etc. and they periodically purge themselves from society taking their gene pool out of the breeding pool.

    We discussed the r/K split in how populations respond to social pressures perhaps there is a C (crazy) branch too which is unable to cope with change constructively and like a body attacking itself with an autoimmune reaction, society groups periodically also have autoimmune reactions?

    From a biological point of view, the promotion of non-reproductive pairs (think rainbow), gender confusion, massive use of abortion for convenience, and suicidal religions, are all counter productive to the growth of the “organism” of humanity.

  112. Compu Gator says:

    :
    “Unnamed SSN-811”.

    Whazzis?
    So our U.S. Navy will foul the uniqueness of public indices, plus its own history of submarines, by resetting “SS” numbers, as if its own submaríners are too clueless to accomodate boat-ids of what’re only 3 digits?

    The extant 3 digits leave enough for 189 more boats! The Navy has assigned only 123 (12+100+11) since the SSN 688 class was ‘laid down’ in 1972 (48 years ago).

  113. Larry Ledwick says:

    Give us a clue on what you are commenting on Compu Gator ???
    Ships are designated by number when first proposed but the naming process takes time and they are not officially named until they are Christened.

    For example Virginia class SSN 791 (Delaware) was funded in 2008, construction started in 2016 Christened In October 2018, but won’t be commissioned until about Apr 04, 2020.

    https://navycommissionings.org/

    Awarded: 22 December 2008
    Builder: Newport News Shipbuilding
    Laid down: 30 April 2016[1]
    Launched: 14 December 2018[2]
    Sponsored by: Jill Biden
    Christened: 20 October 2018[3]
    Acquired: 25 October 2019[4]
    Commissioned: In service special 1 July 2019
    Status: Under construction

  114. Compu Gator says:

    Larry Ledwick says 11 January 2020 at 11:15 pm
    Give us a clue on what you are commenting on Compu Gator ???

    Compu Gator says 11 January 2020 at 10:55 pm
    So our U.S. Navy will ,b>foul the uniqueness of public indices, plus its own history of submarines, by resetting “SS” numbers as if its own submaríners are too clueless to accomodate boat-ids of what’re only 3 digits?

    Silly me! I thought my objection was quite plain!

    Didn’t they learn anything from the ambiguity & confusion of text searches for the WWII piston “F-4” vs. the Vietnam-era jet “F-4”?

  115. Larry Ledwick says:

    Silly me! I thought my objection was quite plain!

    Nope – just an incoherent, disjointed random complaint out of the blue about something you found some place and you can’t be bothered to tell us what the hell you are talking about.
    (hint – source that asserts the Navy will reindex their ship numbers)

    The current numbering nomenclature is specified by Nav Inst 5038.8B and to the best I can determine has not been updated, what ever you are ranting about would have to supersede this instruction.

    Navy Instruction 5030.8B (SECNAVINST 5030.8B)

  116. Larry Ledwick says:

    On a different note, in addition to the arrests which occurred in Iran recently of high ranking individuals today reports have come in that a High-level pro-Iran militia commander is assassinated in Iraq by unknown gunmen. Looks like someone is cleaning the chess board a bit.

    By Keith Griffith For Dailymail.com
    20:34 11 Jan 2020, updated 21:36 11 Jan 2020
    High-level Popular Mobilization Forces leader Taleb Abbas Ali al-Saedi was shot dead late on Saturday in Karbala, a city about 62 miles southwest of Baghdad.

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