This is a little bit creepy. Alex Jones, not shouting (though you can hear the damage to his vocal cords from prior damage in the gravelly voice) being remarkably rational about Chinese Wuhan Covid lockdowns. In the last minute he gets a bit more emotive / loud, but not full on.
Some of his “points” are a little bit “conspiracy theory”. OTOH, when you look up the “crazy quotes” you find out they are what was said. When you look up the relationships and the actions, they are as stated.
So “conspiracy theory” or just a simple “cooperation”, also known as conspiracy?
I hate to admit it, but he’s starting to make sense to me… Maybe I’ve been in lock-down too long ;-)
It is true that Los Angeles wants 10 million people to just stay in their homes for a few (6?) weeks.
It is true that New Mexico is telling grocery stores they must close for a few (2? 3?) weeks.
It is true that the PCR test has the sensitivity set so high you are finding lots of false positives AND folks who recovered from the disease with nearly no, or absolutely no, symptoms. Leading to excessive “cases” reported.
It is true that the death and serious complication rate is falling below that of the normal seasonal flu and that our treatments are now quite good.
It is true that The Media are lying to us about all of this, demonstrably so. Big Tech especially are censoring folks with M.D. after their name – exactly the professional opinions that ought to be heard – whenever that opinion opposes The Narrative. My “truth” filter looks for around a 90 / 10 split. If about 10% of the folks are saying FOO and 90% are saying BAR, then you can likely accept BAR as true while the 10% are flakes or just wrong [most of the time…] BUT, when it’s 100% one way? Something is wrong in the data… the suppression of contrary voices is shouting that something is wrong in the data.
It is also true that an increasing number of folks are just saying “Up Yours!” to the oppression. IF it continues, Biden is going to “own it”. Now couple that with 80 Million who think Biden is Usurper Joe and a Globalist Puppet? Not good folks. Not good. Add to that 80 million all those from the middle tired of functional “house arrest” and even the Bernie Bros who hate Biden & The Cronies, you start to get into the 100 M to 200 M range. A majority of adults.
Is Alex Jones right on this? I don’t know. I watch him sometimes mostly as entertainment / diversion. I tend to be more a Tim Pool kind of guy. Slightly left but mostly center of the bird. (Get out of foreign wars, I don’t care what drugs you like, who you love is up to you – just don’t shove it in my face, etc. but leave room for Traditional Folks to also have freedoms, as on some things I am traditional.) So I expect more hard evidence to back up positions and I expect assertions to be demonstrable with good evidence. I “taste broadly” but only swallow after the lab report comes back…
Still, a pattern is itself evidence. And we’ve got one heck of a solid pattern forming up. You run a “table top” on global disease and economic collapse, then we get an over-hyped “global disease” and calls for a “economic Great Reset” from the same folks? What?… And we’ve got video of them doing it all…
Maybe my Scotch budget is too small…
I need more anesthesia to swallow this stuff.
Musings from the Chiefio 
PCR test used in 70% worldwide withdrawn. Multiple flaws.
Also trending on #PCRgate
About “who you love is up to you”
IF we had the same levels of imposition upon those at risk of AIDS (later identified as HIV) that we have imposed upon Covid-19 afflicted communities:
We would have identified “hot spot” cities and states very prominently,
We would have at least weekly cases, deaths, death-rates per case by city and state and age…
We would have shut down non-essential work places and gatherings ( “bars” and “bath houses”) known to be spreading sites.
We would have _required_ coverings to prevent emissions …
There would have been law enforcement procedures applied to demonstrate the seriousness of the experts attempting to contain the outbreak — not every violation but at least a few high profile arrests and prosecutions. Violators would have been “named and shamed”. Private insurance would not have been expected to pick up costs, but special government appropriates might have applied. (Had the medical costs not been strangely allocated among those with or without “spousal” coverage, the whole issue of who is or is allowed to become “married” would have, IMO, never arisen.)
If only there’d been some sort of medical expert like Anthony Fauci in charge back then…
Oh. Wait a minute …
Jones was pretty subdued here. I quit listening to him ~12 years ago, one of the reasons being his over-the-top behavior. Another thing was that he could never admit when he might be wrong. I once heard him try to argue with the widow of Frank Zappa regarding the occupation of Zappa’s father. Jones said one thing, Ms. Zappa said another and there was some back and forth. They eventually moved on, but you could tell Jones hadn’t conceded. And all he had to do was to say “Oh, I’m sorry, I was given to understand he was this when he was really that.” So I’m glad to see that he’s toned it down a bit.
Re: testing – I’ve read, but can’t find it now, that if a person is tested, and is positive, that counts as a ‘case’. If they are tested again a day or two later, and test positive, this is counted as another ‘case’. So one infection (and that’s assuming the test is accurate and that the cycle rate isn’t too high) can count as two cases. Just another way of inflating the numbers.
@President-Elect Pinroot, who wrote
That’s my understanding, too.
Pretty soon, like some of the election returns where there were more votes than registered voters, we shall reach the point where there are more positives cases than the population of the U.S.
Seriously, I’ve been waiting for that to happen.
Good basic explaination on PCR testing.
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/11/the_covid_case_con_continues.html
Oh, who was that – Elon Musk? – that was tested 4 times in one day and got two positives and two negatives? I’m sure that was counted as two cases 🙄
Where’s the category for “Inconclusive”?
And I had also thought I read that through contact tracing, if there was a confirmed case, everyone who was in contact with the person was counted as a case. I believe that was back when there were few tests available, so they used that method to boost the number. I don’t know if that’s still being done, now that you can get tested while you’re fueling your car at the gas station.
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.
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When I was tested prior to my shoulder surgery, I was sent to a drive-thru testing center with 4 lanes set up to queue the cars and 4 testing stations set up under tents. They were expecting a massive rush of people who were worried that they may have the ‘rona. Didn’t happen.
There was exactly one car ahead of me and no other cars anywhere on the premises. Since the lot they were using was empty of cars I could see every place the whole time I was there and there were no other cars that arrived after me that I could see when leaving the property. All those people being paid to administer tests, 3 to a tent, just sat around baking in the sun, hoping someone would show up.
Most groceries now have a pharmacy, and of course there’s a Walgreens or CVS on nearly every corner. All of them seem to have mini-clinics, too. They all have signs out to “Come on in for your FREE Covid-19 test.” (Please, please, please!) There seem to be no takers by my observation, though I’m sure I’ve just missed the few who were getting tested. Can’t sit there and watch all day just to count.
There is a great desperation to generate cases and I think it it obvious to a majority of the people.
Then there are some – some of us mentioned those we knew on another thread – who have bought into the hysteria hook, line, and sinker. And then there are those that are relatively unconcerned; it’s the flu and they don’t want it, but they don’t give it much thought and think the restrictions are downright stupid or evil and definitely political. I have no idea what that ratio is.
In my neighborhood, no one wears masks and neighborly visiting while out and about goes on the same way it always has the twenty years I’ve been here. I don’t have people huddled in fear all about me and staring me in the face; no Karens. Wait up… early on, we’d all stand a little further apart, but that went by the wayside about mid-Summer.
President Elect H.R. says:
“ I was sent to a drive-thru testing center with 4 lanes set up to queue the cars and 4 testing stations set up under tents. They were expecting a massive rush of people . . . ”
The spatial variation of these things — and also food distribution lines — is interesting.
Some photos in the media show multiple and long lines. Others none.
Most people do wear masks when required by WA governor Dufus Inslee, but most put one on when approaching the sign that says “masks required”, and remove it while leaving.
This has nothing to do with Alex or his comment, but everything to do with Covid and the Pron Panic.
I have had it. This stupidity is denying humanity! For the sake of “safety”, the left has become monsters of unparalleled callousness and cowardice! And I will no longer stand idly by.
My cousin lost his wife recently – to the disease. She had underlying conditions that exacerbated the disease. She caught it from her parents when she went to help them out with their laundry – they passed before she did. My cousin, who is bipolar, could not handle it, and self committed as he knew he was not in his right mind. He spent 2 weeks in the hospital and just got out last Friday (so missed thanksgiving with his boys). He also grew a beard because – no razors in that wing.
That caused a problem. He could no longer get into his computer because of facial recognition (and long ago forgot the pin and password), so he called me for help. It was his only way of getting into his social accounts and those were his therapy as he planned his wife’s funeral. He had had the bug but was long over it.
So yesterday, I went over there to crack his computer. Took me a little over an hour. He is still grieving, but I was not going to tell him no. A man who had just lost his in-laws and wife!
I wore a mask while there and did not touch or eat or drink anything. I did it because he is family, And he needed my help.
But my wife wants me out of the house! I “dared” to endanger her and the cats. She already told me I could not go to the wake or Funeral, and while I do not agree with that edict, I agreed to not go. But she is so terrified of this stupid disease (that John Hopkins has just said is no worse than the seasonal flu – via statistics), that she wants a divorce.
I hope I do get the disease. I do not want to live in such a cold and callous world! Which will only get worse as the true tyrants continue to strip away our liberties using fear, uncertainty and doubt to terrorize their sheep subjects.
I will never stop caring. My cousin needed me and I saw no danger in going (safer to be around him than most others). His wife spent the last month in the hospital so any virii in the house was long dead.
I will never apologize for caring. Period.
@Phil:
We go shopping about twice a week, sometimes 3x. I put on my worst mask most times (it leaks enough to breath easy…) and we stopped doing the hand disinfectant a few months ago (so my gallon of isopropanol is in the fuel prep area).
Once a week we do mass, with hand delivered to hand wafer of bread (“body of christ”).
Once a week we get sushi, hand made behind the counter and into our mouths at home.
There’s more, but you get the idea. This in the hot bed where it showed up early. Even did a dentist visit…
So far I’ve not seen one person I know or meet get sick. They might have been asymptomatic, but nobody down. (One friend of the spouse thinks she had it last year a month before official recognition of it in the USA. Had a “bad flu” with loss of smell sense, better 2 weeks later).
I’m comfortable that my preventative measures and treatments are more than enough and we just do what we want. We never were “afraid” but early on I did enjoy the prep opportunity and the R&D learning experience. Spouse was worried, but I convinced her we were on top of it / prepped.
That was when the stats said it was a 10%+ killer, before we figured out it was 90% nearly nothing and we were only counting the bad few percent.
What I see in the grocery stores is that most folks don’t give a damn about the 6 foot rule.
Walking around the block with the dogs, I’ve seen ONE family out of dozens wearing masks and afraid. Asian women with young kids, likely new immigrants. A few put a mask on if you get close. Most just cross the street or one of us yields the sidewalk and takes the street. Many like to talk with you, but without masks do tend to the 6 foot.
Essentially it is mask OR 6 feet, naybe, sometimes. Folks are past the fear stage into the resentment stage.
Here’s a funny one I saw.
In one of the early crackdowns, the stores were counting the number entering and exiting and there were queues to get in. I went to Home Depot for something, saw the line and just put off getting whatever it was I was after. The counters had radios to communicate how many left so the entrance guy knew how many to let in. That lasted about 2 – 3 weeks.
A few days ago, Black Friday I think, I ran to Home Depot to get some very large fender washers and at the front door, they had this prominent notice:
Due to the Covid Emergency, and by order of local government, we must limit the number of customers in the store to 1,707.”
This time nobody was at the entrance and exit counting people and there was no queue. It seems they were given how many square feet were required for each person. Home Depot did the math and that was the result. Those stores are big!
I knew, and Home Depot knew that they’d never had 1,700 people in the store at the same time, probably even at their grand opening. You can’t park enough cars in their lot and the next two lots over, at one or two per car, to accommodate 1,700 people. I doubt if they have more than about 300 in the store at any one time on a busy weekend, though the total for the day might be a few thousand.
So I had a laugh. This time, they weren’t wasting wages on people-counters at the doors when they knew they’d never have that many in the store. Good for them.
Oh, and my local Kroger has someone counting people coming in and no one counting people going out. So there’s no queue because everybody just walks in and gets counted… to no purpose. I guess it’s so they can tell the local PTB that “We’re keeping very close count of how many are coming into the store.” (wait… what’s the ‘said with a straight face but trying not to grin’ emoji? Kroger needs that one.)
@Phil – My condolences to your cousin for his loss. It’s good that you could be there for him to help him get through this.
I know what you’re going through with your wife. I think we talked in another thread about our spouses, and mine is essentially just like yours. During Thanksgiving we had a Zoom meeting with most of her family. She spent most of it telling everyone about the latest from St. Fauci, Hallowed be his name, which was that the next two weeks were going to be just horrible and admonished everyone to please stay at home and shelter in place for the next two weeks. I just kept rolling my eyes. She almost never leaves the house, so she has no idea what it’s actually like “out there”. Our governor (Democrat) has mandated masks everywhere, and reduced the size of all gatherings. Locally, our mayor (not sure of party) has mandated masks in all businesses, with fines and jail time for repeat offenders, so most people comply. Because of all of this, my wife and her paranoia are really cranked up. I have to swear that I stay away from people, always wear my mask and all that. I don’t dare tell her that there have been a number of people at work who have tested positive for it (none of them have been really sick, more like a mild cold for most if they even have symptoms), at least one of my ‘drinking buddies’ has had most of his family test positive (mom, dad and brother, with mild symptoms for only one), and so on. She already complains that I don’t tell her things (I’m not very talkative) so I know if she found out I withheld these things, she’d go nuts. So I understand, at least somewhat, what you’re going through. All I can say is I wish you the best. Good luck.
It must be over 20 years since I first came across Alex Jones when, tuning around the short waves, I would often come across ‘The Power Hour’. Started listening to him mainly for his high-energy ‘conspiracy rants’, then started following up the stuff he was saying and finding that a lot of it was more right than those in power would ever admit. I have, over perhaps the last 5-6 years, come across a number of people saying that Jones is just controlled opposition, whose opinion is also supported by the demonstrable fact that there are some areas of concern where he simply does not go. (This accusation is also true of most of the ‘conspiracists’, of course.) However, as I tend to operate on all the information available to me, as assessed by my own intelligence, the accusation of partial truth is not that bad, and I will still listen to A.J. just to see what he’s found this time.
Very sorry to see that two (maybe more) regulars here are having difficulties with their spouses over this footling, trivial little ‘killer virus’. Having been ‘unpartnered’ for a fair few years now, I’m happy to be missing out on that possibility! I don’t know whether either of the scared spouses would be influenced at all by my own experience as a regular sufferer from anything respiratory, but I have personally taken no “precautions” whatsoever against this ‘killer’: I don’t wear a mask at all because I fulfil the conditions for exemption (do you have exemptions in the US?), I wash my hands no more than usual, I roll cigarettes and smoke them after freely touching all sorts of surfaces in the public domain. I have even mixed quite freely with people who have even less concern than me over it and shaken hands with them, and been into homes where someone has ‘tested positive’. Nothing, despite living in a ‘hotspot’ student area within Boris Johnson’s ‘Tier 3’ (the highest). No more than a mild head cold all year. But of course, all this is ‘anecdotal’, even though I am happy to swear on oath that it is perfectly true.
FWIW, I was saying to people in April and May that we would be getting a ‘second wave’ in the autumn regardless of medical fact, and one or two of them remembered and have mentioned it back to me recently. Such of the ‘pandemic’ as had any genuine reality was over by June, this ‘second wave’ is best characterised by the quoted ‘fact’ that flu deaths ‘are down by 98%’. No they’re not. They’re exactly where they’ve been for centuries, but now 98% of them are being attributed to the nasty virus to keep people scared. Everything ‘pandemic’ that’s going on now is just politics, and I’m thoroughly fed up with it. We need more Alex Joneses.
@Steve C,
Yes, there are medical exceptions; though those vary by political jurisdiction, I think. We at this blog came to the conclusion more than 6 months ago (9 months?) that this wasn’t that bad of a respiratory virus, akin to a bad influenza for some. It is the political theater/power grab that is the most appalling.
The numbers for the USA ILI surveillance dispute that influenza is as it has always been. A more successful pathogen *will* displace others, to an extent. That is a basic biological fact. How much the said displacement is, however, disputed. The covid testing is *so* much more than the ILI one, that some of this is simply related to that, not counting the false positives and negatives. No one, I repeat *no one* knows what the true prevalence is for either virus; and few even consider that you can have more than one virus at a time present where one is causing you more trouble than the other. Recall, the signs and symptoms of these are *not* specific, for they are from the bodily response to exposure/infection.
@Steve Thanks, I doubt anyone could say anything to alleviate my wife’s fears (other than St. Fauci). I’ll just have to ride it out.
Deaths: Just found this at The Market Ticker:
THIS IS ALL EXCESS DEATH! (Bull****) http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=240793
Turns out that if you’re in the hospital and have a DNR (Do Not Resuscitate) you are more likely to die of Covid. It links to a study (here: https://www.cidjournal.com/article/S0738-081X(20)30231-5/fulltext?s=09). Interesting… just another way to pump up the numbers, it would seem.
I’d just chime in that 9 months ago (11?) we knew nearly nothing about the virus. Our treatments were causing as much harm as good, and the only numbers we had were for the most severe cases that landed in the hospital.
Now we know that large cross immunity exists in the population (several other corona virus types have similar parts and you may have antibody production for those parts). Now we know that a large percentage of the folks who get the infection have symptoms (perhaps even bad symptoms) no worse than other common diseases, or no symptoms at all. Now we know that those who die from it have significant comorbities and are already on the edge in some ways. Now we know the true CFR is unremarkable.
In addition, we know that nutritional status is highly important, especially for Vit-D and Zinc, and we have a growing laundry list of effective preventatives / treatments. (HCQ, Zpack, Doxycycline, Ivermectin, etc. etc.)
Now, the “tell” for me is that those extremely cheap and effective preventatives and treatment drugs are being actively removed from the public conversation. The folks controlling the “Social Media” are heavily and actively pushing an agenda (vis the removal of Alex Jones from the media, followed by dozens of others; and the removal of any advocacy for those simple fixes and aides.) That just shouts at me that “They want the panic, they want a narrative of pandemic and death”.
Which leads to the question of “Why?”. I can see that the desire is to use fear to drive the herd in a direction, but the end goal seems fuzzy. Maybe I’m just not good at thinking in Dr. Evil modes, but it just seems daft to me. Control? Buy property for pennies after bankrupting everyone? Create the environment for the Great Reset and Global Governance? Just ’cause they can and it makes them feel giddy? So their Chinese Masters & Patrons become king of the economic heap?
Motivation is the hardest thing to pull out of a clandestine conspiracy seen dimly. Perhaps because their are many motivations in the mob.
@Steve C:
The Power Hour? THAT was Alex Jones?
I stumbled on it a time or two, but didn’t listen enough to remember who it was. At the time I was most interested in National News programs like the BBC and DW and such, so the private shows I tended to note and “move on” (even whatever that religious channel out of Quito Ecuador was… though sometimes, as it was strong and clear, I’d listen to it a bit when everything else was not coming through / was static …)
Golly, I had no idea I’d heard Jones so long ago…
I’ve noticed that lately he’s started listing his prior assertions and the fact of their arrival. He is building up a track record of correct assertions. IF he can make more like this video where he isn’t shouting at me, I might follow his stuff more. (I have issues with loud rants, not the least of which is that I have to modulate the volume control all the time – over 85 Db my ears start to ring, under 30 Db I don’t hear it… constantly wobbling between 20 Db and 100 Db is “problematic”… Then there’s just the fact that I don’t like being shouted at…)
Well, “interesting times”…
Jones wasn’t on the Power Hour, that was a husband/wife team. Joyce Riley and hubby (forget his name). I believe they’re both gone now, and I’m not sure of the show’s status.
As for Jones’ volume, you could always run the audio through an audio compressor and get the levels down to something more consistent. More work than most people would want to invest, but it’s always an option :)
@Pinroot:
Ok, so I didn’t not remember him? ;-)
Yeah, I’ve thought of a range compressor from time to time. I’d have to put it in earphones with a microphone though as otherwise I’d have to invade a whole lot of systems and wire stuff in…
So, yeah, more work than I’m willing to put in. (I usually just stuff in ear plugs for the too loud stuff and ignore whatever I can’t hear…)
Perhaps with such insane volumes of money having been printed, they’re simply no longer able to lift lockdown, for fear of giving people the opportunity to spend that money and generate the consequent inflation.
All those freshly-printed pounds and dollars wasted on grifts and scams and wheezes and furlough haven’t disappeared. They’re sitting burning holes in consumers’ pockets. The inflation and consequent rises in interest rates would be insupportable. So they keep putting off the day by locking us down and printing still more to pay for it.
Yes. I know how irrational that all sounds. But, like, everyone, I’m struggling to understand and rationalize what is actually happening. to our lives.
You can go to Google Maps to check if stores are open or not. As far as I can tell, grocers and restaurants are open in NM. Some restaurants have pickup only.
Man, if that’s rational I’d hate to watch him when he;s irrational. What a fine mix of lies and distortions. A quarter million dead and “it’s all ies.” That’s a lot of lies. What a fool!
Alex Jones and many other well known people have been linked to this:
https://bwcentral.org/2020/12/bombshell-interview-gen-michael-flynn-and-gen-thomas-mcinerney-with-brannon-howse-identity-of-kraken-revealed/
It is claimed that the servers used to steal the 2020 election have been captured by our “Special Forces”. It is easy to find dozens of affirming reports but very few claiming they are false.
I find it credible that Trump fired Esper because he was part of the a coup that included people like Chris Krebs.
If this is “Fake News” why can’t CNN tell us why?
Fox News may have picked a bad time to throw Trump under the bus.
@Paul Somerset:
It is a valid concern. Savings rate spiked on the govt check. A lot of folks just banked it.
Is it enough to have visible impact? Nobody knows.
@Scissor:
SOME grocery stores in N.M. are closed. Something like if you have 4 positive covid tests you must close for 2 or 3 weeks. Given the false positive rate stores with large staff will randomly take time outs.
@G.C.:
Silence in the face of sensational news tends to confirm. One of my “nagative space” rules.
If the story were false, it would be used as Trump Dirt, or ridiculed. Not ignored. A jucy story like that, going dead, usually means someone wants it buried. Folks don’t try to bury irrelevant stuff. They focus on the stuff that matters.
Not a 100% rule, but very often. “When they go silent, make notes, look closer.”
@Seriuoso:
I think you typoed your name.
Alex Jones rarely lies. He does speculate in a conspiracy theory way about things unknowable. He does exaggerate and jump to extremes of what is possible. Sometimes he is just wrong. Often he is just ahead of what eventually is shown true.
BUT, in the bits I’ve watched (admittedly not a lot) over the last few years, he has been vastly more correct, and lied far far less, than CNN or MSNBC. Think Russia, Russia!, RUSSIA!!! hours daily for 3 years, and the peepee blather…
Now, on COVID, two things. One is deaths. The other is ascribing them to Chinese Wuhan Covid.
We know the PCR Test is kicking out false positives a lot AND finds an infection from dead virus in folks who have killed it off naturally. We know folks dying are very old with comorbidities of some kind. We know folks dead from car accidents, drug overdose, and even shooting get covid death ascribed if they get a positive test. We also know, now, that real death rate is about the same as flu. A whole lot of “covid deaths” are something else. That is the point he makes, if a bit overblown, sometimes hyped.
Now, you say 1/4 million deaths like it is an exotic extreme thing. We are at the one year point, almost. So what is normal in a year? Let’s estimate.
US Population: 330,000,000 roughly..
US Average lifespan: About 79 years
Every year, about 300,000,000 / 79 = 3,797,468 people will die.
Yes, 3 3/4 million. Every year. A 1/4 million is a rounding error.
The simple fact is we are all going to die. Old folks a lot more than young. Those with lots of metabolic problems even more. Chinese Wuhan Covid is a bit player in that reality.
Those who die from it most (older, comorbid, poor nutrient status) would likely die of flu, pneumonua, cancer, or heart problems anyway. That’s just a fact. Treating it like an extraordinary thing is the lie.
Is it a bad disease? Certainly. Then again, so is flu, mumps, measles, chicken pox, and croup. I’ve had all of them. Some a few times. I do not fear being in an at risk age group. I do fear the economic destruction of this overblown panic.
In the first few months, when folks said “economic destruction”, I challenged with “What destruction? Capital stock still exists, as does the labor pool”. But now we ARE entering economuc destruction territory. Capitol stock, facilities are being abandoned and junked. Labor goes stale and loses skill. A new crop of students does not gain skills.
And for what? Our “15 days to slow the spread” to gracefully reach herd immunity, has mutated into indefinite house arrest until economic death, coupled with death from other causes rising a lot. All while herd immunity ceases to be a goal, but becomes a panic.
That is insanity.
Jones hypes those truths to break through the insanity and fear barriers.
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/life-expectancy
UK life expectancy is about three years more. Strange.
The proper calculation is that the true crude population death rate in the USA is about 0.9%. This has been approximately true for decades. For 331 million (current UN estimate if I am remembering correctly) that 0.9% works out to about 3 million deaths. CDC numbers look like that’s where the year will end up. Most of the covid deaths are *with*, not from; where the afore mentioned comorbidities matter. Cardiovascular disease and cerebrovascular disease has been in the top 10 for nigh on 7 decades. Accidental trauma also; which takes out more young than any other, is a top 10 for at least 8 decades. Infectious diseases, which at the foundation are traumatic conditions, too; used to be much greater than now.
For 2018, the numbers are 8,678 per million. See here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm. I expect 2020’s numbers when published in 2022, to be similar to that. In fact, the published attributed covid numbers for the USA are about 837 per million, and with so many of those being *with* and not *from*, doubt that the overall year’s mortality will be far out of recent history’s numbers.
Study Finds 89% of Patients Who Died From COVID-19 Had a Do-Not-Resuscitate Order
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/stacey-lennox/2020/11/30/study-finds-89-of-patients-who-died-from-covid-19-had-a-do-not-resuscitate-order-n1181002
Translation: They already had one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel. Might as well call it covid and pump up that death rate.
UPDATED: Johns Hopkins Study Saying COVID-19 Has ‘Relatively No Effect on Deaths’ in U.S. Spiked After Publication
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/matt-margolis/2020/11/27/johns-hopkins-study-saying-covid-19-has-relatively-no-effect-on-deaths-in-u-s-deleted-after-publication-n1178930
Basically if the number of deaths per year stays relatively constant (adjusted for population growth) then the ~220K deaths from covid should have caused a noticeable spike in the deaths for 2020, but it’s not there. John Hopkins noticed but apparently they weren’t supposed to, so the paper got pulled.
Fauci Slammed For Finally Admitting Schools Should Be Open
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fauci-slammed-finally-admitting-schools-should-be-open
There was no evidence to support closing them and several countries (Switzerland for one) that kept them open experienced no spikes in illness.
It’s things like this that make me think that we are maybe being lied to.
Pouncer: “If only there’d been some sort of medical expert like Anthony Fauci in charge back then…
Oh. Wait a minute …”
I’ve seen comments on what Fauci did back then. Bad news. Same old Fauci. Here’s a new one.
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/12/dr_fauci_and_my_brother_mark.html
From Fauci’s letter:
“The only reason AZT is being withheld from Mark is because of its possible danger to him — AZT does have some serious side effects[.] … Without proof that AZT can benefit a particular patient, scientists do not wish to risk the fragile health of ARC patients and thus prefer to prescribe an alternate form of medication instead.” Thus, the one therapy that had shown any potential to save my brother’s life was denied him.
@GallopingCamel:
You said Alex, but in the article they talk about Alan Jones. Different Jones?
This is worth consideration regarding possible side effects of new vaccines:
https://healthandmoneynews.wordpress.com/2020/12/02/head-of-pfizer-research-covid-vaccine-is-female-sterilization/
@The True Nolan – I’m all for a Covid vaccine, so long as it is first given to every member of the Senate, the House, the CDC, W.H.O., and every member of the YSM; print, broadcast, and cable. I also wouldn’t mind if the Fan Belt Inspectors and their spook counterparts were included.
Then, 8 months to a year afterwards, I’ll consider giving the vaccine a try… maybe. Gotta see how many survive, ya know.
@The True Nolan. Without making a call one way or the other about the safety claims sited, I could make a comment about how Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine which are both long approved drugs are banned for Covid use because they “might” cause side effects. With all the calls to “trust the science”, trust in “the scientists” is falling.
V.P. Elect Smith said:
“@GallopingCamel:
You said Alex, but in the article they talk about Alan Jones. Different Jones?”
Ooops! My bad. I meant Alan Jones co-author of “The Hammer”. Not Alex Jones of Infowars fame.
@YMMV:
As you point out, the official reason for banning the use of Ivermectin & HCQ for treating COVID-19 is that they might cause side effects.
A much more likely explanation is that “Big Pharma” owns most of our government and especially the FDA. Big Pharma can’t abide treatments that are both cheap and effective.
@YMMV,
Dr. Fauci publicly dismissed HCQ (HydroChloroQuine) on television and his opinion was used by the “Media” to bludgeon politicians including New York governor Cuomo and North Carolina governor Cooper into restricting its use in their states. Yet Fauci was well aware of its efficacy in the treatment of SARS.
https://onenewsnow.com/perspectives/bryan-fischer/2020/04/27/fauci-knew-about-hcq-in-2005-nobody-needed-to-die
So did Fauci knowingly mislead the American public? Or is his memory impaired? If the latter he has my sympathy since I sometimes have the same problem (old age sucks!). Either way he should not be allowed to continue misleading the public when so many lives are at stake. How many lives you ask? This week the Ford foundation published a study of 2,500 patients that suggests that HCQ reduces mortality by 50%.
https://dailycaller.com/2020/07/03/hydroxychloroquine-trump-coronavirus-henry-ford/
https://www.henryford.com/news/2020/04/hfhs-leads-national-study-to-determine-drugs-effectiveness-in-preventing-covid19
For those who are inclined to sneer at any study confirming the efficacy of HCQ here is a link to the relevant paper:
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30534-8/fulltext#.XwDS14v6aAY.email
Back in April, Dr. Zelenko in New York started using HCQ based on studies done in South Korea and China. He claims to have a better rate of success than the Ford foundation owing to adding Zinc to his “Cocktail” (anecdotal, of course). Dr. Zelenko is quite popular at the moment since people are ready to grasp at straws when their lives are on the line.
https://www.ibtimes.sg/us-doctor-claims-have-cured-nearly-500-coronavirus-patients-using-hydroxychloroquine-video-42075
One of my pharmacist friends has dug up interesting information on HCQ including the small study that Fauci dismissed as “anecdotal”.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1477893920301319
To the mortification of “Big Pharma” and its satellite (aka the FDA), HCQ appears to be both cheap and efficacious. It also has a long “Plasma Half Life” (~120 days) which means that its effects last for months. This is a useful feature for a drug that is used as a prophylactic.
In August I started taking the prophylactic regimen recommended by the IMRC (Indian Medical Research Council). This consists of 400 mg of HCQ, once per week for seven weeks. Even though I ran out of pills in late September the drug should still be having some effect given its long plasma half life.
@ gallopingcamel, yes, Fauci, FDA, and a whole raft of other people and institutions are criminally negligent. They did not provide ANY prophylactic regime, and when patients became sick they were told to stay home and call for help once it was too late. The initial stage of the disease is when the virus is actively multiplying. It doesn’t last long. That is the correct time to apply anti-viral measures. After that, the disease is the immune system reacting. It’s easy to blame big-Pharma, but part of the blame must fall on individual doctors and hospitals who for whatever reason are not open to alternative treatments. Get it before it becomes serious.
HCQ: https://hcqmeta.com
Dr. Paul Marik Discusses His I-MASK+ Protocol: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xy8XcBodQv0
How Ivermectin Helps Against SARS-COV-2?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEO7Adv3tVI
@G.C. & YMMV:
Per ivermectin, HCQ, Quinine, etc.:
It was blatant how they actively tried to bury any chance at an effective prophylactic, treatment, or possible cure. “Banning” a topic has become my newest favorite best “tell”. When all the social media are busy saying you are forbidden to talk about a drug a treatment or the mild nature of the disease in most folks: You KNOW talking points were handed out along with directions to quash.
You also know that the only reason to quash is because it will interfere with the intended Narrative and the intended direction for The Herd to be driven; and that would only happen if the drug works and people found out. Therefore, it is a nice confirmation that they work.
If the drug, in fact, was useless, then they would desire folks to use it, fail, and tell folks how horrible the disease is and that treatments didn’t work. But they drive folks away from trying it, which means it would work and thus break up their plan for a Panic Plandemic.
FWIW:
I picked up a “throat tickle” yesterday. I’ve topped up all my Vits and minerals. This evening it is down to a “not much” with a little nose irritation. I sometimes toss off viruses in a day or two… or about day 4 they get bad. So “watch this space”.
I’ve not yet done the Ivermectin nor have I done separate Zinc outside my daily vit & weekly sushi. Also, so far, no body aches, lung issues, loss of smell or taste, or really anything other than nose irritation and a tonsile unhappy. (Though did get a couple of spots of blood on a nose-blow, but that might just be dry air…)
So at this point I think I just picked up a regular cold virus when we ran errands and did take out for dinner… (way tired of Turkey… so did Chinese ;-) I had Gun Powder Chicken (Gung Pow…) and did not eat the little red peppers this time. I did eat them a couple of times, then my Chinese Friend (who always ate them) informed me he was impressed as you were not supposed to eat them and he did it as he liked fire breathing hot… I suggested maybe next time he introduced me to a new dish he share that kind of information…before eating it. So I don’t think it was the peppers leaving my throat charred ;-)
We’ll know in a few days, I think. It ought to either be gone in 3 or me saying it’s something “special” by 4 or 5. ATM it just seems like a regular rinovirus whimp.
@The True Nolan:
Yeah, that whole “vaccine causing sterility” thing ought to be looked at Real Hard…
From your link:
Not that I would be worried Bill Gates, George Soros and all the other Globalists who want to reduce human population by Billions and have talked about a sterilizing vaccine would actually act on their crazy ideas… I’m sure it would all just be an “unfortunate accident” /snark;
FWIW, I’m against injecting 100% of the population with ANYTHING, and especially all at once, just because of the possibility of a Bad Thing Happening that then whacks everyone at once. Variety in medical care is important. Both due to Evil Emperor problems and also due to regular old Human Screw Ups.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4119744/
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12346214/
Or even just consider that most of the active ingredients in drugs these days comes from China. I’m sure China would never ever think they could just slip a little something into ordinary vaccines and remove all those “other people” filling up the land they would like to get… /sarc;
EM Whisky ‘n lemon,(In addition to yr Vitamins C and D A serf remedy. )
ivermectin is pretty spectacularly effective, around 70-80% reduction in risk of death (average of 10’s of studies): https://ivmmeta.com/
Brings covid threat back to ‘bad flu’. We should be able to resume life.
The seeming silence on this from meda and govts says really bad things about institutional agendas.
What really enrages me is that many studies of HCQ were knocked for minor details and thus disregarded.
But the the 2 biggest studies Oxford Recovery and WHO along with the Brazillians study used disgracefully, dangerously high levels of dosage are still being quoted and were never withdrawn.
How they got away with it still puzzles me.
What has my knickers in a twist is “cases.”
The narrative is that the Kung Flu is so deadly that you are in imminent danger of dropping dead in your tracks if you so much as reside in a State where the virus is present.
Thus, you must follow unconstitutional government directives that wreck the economy, your emotional wellbeing, the social fabric of society, and your life. Rest assured [*solemn face*], it’s all based on “The Science” which is whatever the PTB decide to make up out of thin air to support their edicts. Oh… and pay no attention to the fact that we superior beings don’t follow our own silly-ass rules because they are silly ass rules. We just made them up (shhhh… don’t tell anyone).
Well, the deaths started dropping, treatments were found, people kept wondering why no-one they knew ever got the Kung Flu (prolly did, but was really mild or asymptomatic), the lockdowns made little sense, and so the mass hysteria was waning. It just wasn’t looking much like a pandemic. Where are all of the bodies lying in the streets? Where are the overflowing hospitals and morgues?
What to do…? What to do…?
Aha! Cases! That’s it! That’s the ticket. Millions and millions of “cases.”
And as described in E.M.’s article and discussed in comments, the narrative and picture being painted is “Cases = Deaths.”
But more and more people are catching on that “cases” [*yawn*] don’t mean much. And far too many people experienced the death of a loved on from something not Covid, and they found the cause listed as Covid-19. Others went to get tested, signed in, found the lines too long, skipped the test and went home, only to get a letter a few days later informing them they tested positive.
Just like a bad experience with a retailer, the pissed off person tells 10 others and word starts getting around.
Response from the Fascist Government PTB? Why, double down, of course.
CASES! CASES!!! More and more CASES!!!!!!!!! Any way you can get them and never mind what the definition of a case is. That’s never explained. You’re just supposed to know that more cases is terrible! horrific! and “We’re all going to die if you don’t stay home and wear a mask 24/7. You’re killing Grandma! You’ll kill your neighbor! You’ll kill random strangers in the street! Your kids will die! You will die!”
Whereas, as discussed above, undefined cases without context are meaningless. My County could have 100% positive cases, and things would still be the exactly as they were yesterday, are today, and will be tomorrow.
“Cases” are meaningless. Deaths with Covid are just about as meaningless. Deaths from Covid are informative, but it may just be pointing out that effective treatments were denied or started too late. Who knows? No one seems to keep track because doing so would spoil the narrative.
SPIT! Indeed, my knickers are in a twist over “cases.”
I grabbed 90 HCQ pills from off shore (filled in Singapore) just in case. I already take daily 50mg Zinc. Only used 2 pills prophylactically when I was around a cougher.
FWIW, this morning the ‘scratchy throat’ is gone, though a bit of nose stuffy remains. Kind of a bit of ‘stuffy head’ and a feeling like I’m a bit low on O2 saturation (then again, I haven’t finished my morning coffee but have petted the dogs “good morning” and one of them (the Malty Poo) makes me sneeze and have stuffy sinuses…)
So it looks like, so far, whatever it is is well on it’s way out.
I did apply 10 ml of Ivermectin drench before bed last night.
@EM Smith: well, at least you won’t have worms, LOL…pg
@P.G.:
Oh, but it does so much more than that, killing off all sorts of things.
So I won’t have fleas, any ticks are toast, mites? Gone. Then there’s River Blindness, no worries about that now… all manner of non-mammal things are screwed. “Free at last, free at last, thank…”
;-)
Oh, and it has anti-viral activity too…
@EMSmith & cdquarles
1/4 million is not a rounding error! It’s one part in fifteen. Furthermore, the deaths are not yet for a full 12 months — use the proper divisor. And count again when we finally get a vaccine. For now the good news is that the death rate is down.
Rounding error depends on the precision to which you round. The error between my gross estimates and CDQuarles numbers is bigger, therefor it is a rounding error inside the precision of the estimate.
As for “use the proper divisor”: Divisor is the bottom number. I used “average life span” as the divisor. For 2019 it is 78.87 for 2021 the estimate is 78.93. Both round up to 79 (a conservative direction of rounding) and that’s the value I used (that gives either 0.13 or 0.07 ‘advantage’ to your POV).
Also note that with just a couple of weeks left to go, we are unlikely to reach 1/3 million. Neither 1/4 million nor 1/3 million is enough to move the average death statistics for the nation (and the value quoted above estimates a longer longevity for 2020 vs 2019 vs 2018, though method isn’t clear and they specifically disclaim covid impacts).
The bottom line is really very simple:
A FRACTION of a million is much much smaller than 3 INTEGER million and is “lost in the noise” of other causes of death.
Doesn’t help your Panic Pandemic Agenda, but it is what it is.
You would do more to improve longevity by improving safety in many things like vehicle deaths, bike deaths, pneumonia deaths, etc. etc. and at far far less impact to the lives and economy of everyone else as those go on forever and Chinese Wuhan Covid will end at herd immunity (happening very soon). Flu deaths this year are down almost as much as Covid is up IIRC. Hell, just dumping the “Food Pyramid” with “Diabetes R Us” carbs in massive amounts and substituting the Keto Diet would likely save a lot more. Telling folks to take 2000 IU of Vit-D in fall and winter (and get sun in spring and fall) would reduce deaths from various infections more. (Like old folks kept perpetually indoors in Nursing Homes…)
@Quail, Vice President of the Compost Pile. Long may it steam.
I heard the same thing. Which dropped the “secondary” infection rate to 1. Not 1%, one confirmed case. And the second infection was asymptomatic.
And that was a major beef with fake news.
@p.g.
Scotch kills worms too!
A few posts back I mentioned that the ” “all cause” death numbers areist critical. And after reading much contradictory numbers; ranging from 250 k excess all cause deaths in 2020, to zero, I still don’t know 2020 August Sept October all cause deaths vs 2018 or 2019. Are death certificates not current within a month or so?
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate
Thus site carries a Cov19 disclaimer without defining it.?
It might also be useful to compare Covid deaths with those each year from medical errors. Somewhat surprising…. https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/quality/study-medical-error-deaths-4-5-times-more-likely-than-iom-estimate.html (from 2014). I had a link a while back to a Johns Hopkins report that stated 250k people in the USA each year were from medical error.
Re: Vaccine causing sterility (trying to embed a tweet for the first time):
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
As a rough estimate, the total remaining all cause deaths for the 28 days left in the year is about 225,000, for the USA. That’s all cause and we know that the reported covid deaths have, at best, modest truthfulness attached to them.
There is an ICD code for iatrogenic deaths. That 250K is an estimate from a model where, I say, the political point was to scare people. My own guess at iatrogenic deaths in the USA is probably a tenth of that reported estimate, at most. When it is your time to die, you will; and there will be little to nothing any medical system can do to stop it. In addition, diagnosis is not gnosis. It is an informed guess, so error is always potentially there; either type 1 or type 2 errors.
Hmm, I wonder if you could search for wrongful medical death claims, whether successful in court or not, to get another estimate.
About vaccine associated sterility, remind yourself that natural mumps infections have that as a complication. It isn’t known whether other viral infections have sterility as a complication. That some of the general infertility seen is directly or indirectly immune system mediated should not surprise anyone familiar with mammalian biology.
@CDQuarles:
I’ve worked in hospitals (on wards, in accounting, at admissions). One of the things I noticed was that “when it was time to go” a cascade seemed to set in.
Sure, there were the “one off” where the person came in from a car accident and died or had a heart attack that was unrecoverable. But there were also the folks who came in with, say, kidney problems and picked up heart issues and then had congestive lung issues and then got an opportunistic infection and then… As fast as one could be treated another would advance.
I realized that there were a lot of folks (often old, but some just young but fragile) where systems were just all going out of spec and into failure modes.
I saw this in a smaller way with my mother dying of cancer. Calcium levels went high, bones started leaching into the blood. Kidneys had trouble dealing with it. Etc. She didn’t actually die from the cancer, she died from the metabolic things the cancer induced. But what do you put on the death certificate? “The patient just stopped breathing”? “Blood chemistry was un-correctable and exceeded life range”? Nope, you put cancer. It started the whole cascade.
But for my father, we didn’t put “40 years of smoking unfiltered Camels”…
There’s a long chain of events sometimes and you just put down a marker at the most convenient point that informs the most. “Lung Cancer”, ignoring the sequela and ignoring the causative agents over years. Or “Diabetes” and ignoring a lifetime of sugars and starches while also not mentioning the progressive amputations and other failures of systems that were proximal.
Is it “medical error” when the cancer patient stops breathing with a too high blood morphine level after their kidneys stopped clearing it and the prescribed dose was administered on schedule? Or is that just moving up the end stage by a few hours as without kidney function the end is clear? Or is it what was to happen anyway and the morphine just let them not feel the pain?
What goes on the death certificate is as much choice and guess as causal, in a very many cases.
Having filled out death certificates, one could say cardiopulmonary arrest secondary to hypercalcemia as a complication of cancer. That said, that was the old way. Proximate cause first then secondary ones and/or complications. Having long since retired from that business, what the current ‘guidelines’ are, I don’t know.
The vital statistics people would then decide which to emphasize.
“what the current ‘guidelines’ are, I don’t know” Me either, but this might help:
See the illustrations following this one.
Ah, so they don’t allow the terminal condition now.
@PE-Pinroot,
Yea you know. But this goes beyond the porn panic. This is the callous disregard for human life, the total lack of compassion for your fellow man, the barbarity of the savage with no conscious or compassion. And I am not sure I want to live in such a world. In fact I know I do not. The question is can we over throw these despicable dictators? She has calmed down, But we have not talked since then, When she is ready, I will lay out the reality. I have only one demand. I will demand she stop watching fake news. Period. If she agrees, I will agree to counseling to save our marriage. If she does not, I will walk. Maybe until I fall off in the ocean.
I can abide knowledgeable disagreement I cannot abide ignorant paranoia. Which is what they just cheated into the WH.
@PE-Pinroot – BTW – thank you.
I have had the 15 minute test and the 48 hour now (not the PKR one). both negative. The PKR one returns false positives a majority of the time because it elevates the RNA to detect anything in the Corona family, which includes the common cold. So how many have had the common cold?
I would ask Sorioso to explain the John Hopkins study which showed the mortality rate in 2018 and 2020 for seniors (those over 60) to be essentially the same. Also to explain how a motorcycle accident is Covid related. And how bullets are covid related.
A great economist (Just deceased) stated that when you subsidize a thing, you get more of that thing. Reporting a death as Covid gets doctors and hospitals more money. So explain how lead is Covid.
And soriosiy, get a brain!
@PhilJourdan:
Please, now, no “insults to the person”, OK?
We all know Serioso has a brain, he just doesn’t know how to use it properly…
So be kind to those of “special” needs, OK? Offer condolences for their condition and remember that it isn’t their fault.
Besides, he might well be very intelligent and capable. Just of low moral character and working for “The Evil Side” to make a buck. Everyone must support their family somehow. Even people without morals.
Do I need to add a /snark; to that last comment, or does it stand OK as is?
But seriously, folks, this is the reason I have a no “insults to the person” rule. Because my “Be the mirror” fundamental philosophy has me become the snarky a-hole they are to me (and due to my desire to protect others, when done to others…).
I can be pretty good at the /snark and put downs and all the other crap games. I have decades of experience. But I just don’t like to “go there”.
Yet, despite, what is it, a decade now?, of encouraging Serioso to come to the light and polite side, I’m stuck with “He is what he is and he is incapable of change”. Eventually even my tolerance wears thin.
So please forgive me my occasional indulgences of the /snide and /snark and such with Serioso. “I am but the mirror”…
Philjourdan, all the best to you and the current challenges you face. Regardless of outcome, you can be ok, as when things are not gowing well, I try to remember that there is nothing so constant as change. If you do walk into the ocean please have a nice swim and come back out!
Per the CDC
From 02/01/2020 to 11/28/2020
Or 302 days 2,635,214 people died
Or 8,726 people per day.
7,778 died each day in 2018. 2,839,205 deaths, 365 days.
Again, per the CDC
So, if the trend continues, then 2020 will have about 3,185,000 deaths, or 346,000 more then in 2018.
Yet this does not reconcile with a certain pulled John Hopkins study?
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/matt-margolis/2020/11/27/johns-hopkins-study-saying-covid-19-has-relatively-no-effect-on-deaths-in-u-s-deleted-after-publication-n1178930
Also I do not expect the 2020 deaths per day to continue to average 8,726, as most of the excess deaths ( about 275000 as I recall from Jo Nova) are early in the year.
So I am not certain why the John Hopkins study and the CDC numbers for not jive??
I would add that regardless, the lockdowns are far more deadly because, as they continue their negative affects grow exponentially in more permanent economic damage and collateral damage such as depression, divorce, suicide.
Oh, link to CDC data, see table two, now 7 days longer then the numbers I quoted.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR3hy7dlMLzeHe-gFWS8hzSzbyKJGDU8JYKX5DlStl0qTnnq-a75p1xKE-I
I don’t think there will be any excess deaths when 2020’s numbers are known in 2022. Part of the issue is people using 2018’s population estimates. UN 2020 estimate is about 331 million. At 2018’s final death per million estimate, all cause, of 8678; you’d expect 2,872,418 deaths. We are on track to see that. There is also some jitter in that crude population all cause death rate since the population grows each year and actual death numbers are variable.
CDC numbers are provisional, in part because the last few week deaths have not been fully reported and some deaths reported today actually happened weeks to months ago.
In regards to Serioso, while adding nothing useful to the discussions there at least has been the entertainment value. As they say,
” Everyone brings joy into the world, Some as they arrive and others as they leave,” ..8-)
At least, Maybe, good lessons in those intrusions.
@P.G.:
I like the times Serioso pokes at a point. It often causes me to launch into a better defense of it. The bit that I don’t like is the random insults and name calling at folks (me or others).
If just seen too many places devolve into “flame wars” and insult cesspools over “insults to the person” to let that happen here.
So I tolerate Serioso as a “useful irritant” and at the same time attempt to teach “be polite about it”…
Lately I’ve been less patient and have just gone into “be the mirror” mode. Toss back a rock for each one incoming. Don’t know when (if?) that will end. It takes a long time for “irritation” to a raw spot to become callus again…
@CDQuarles:
At some point (scale) there are never any “excess deaths”. We are all of us 100% dead, we just have not reached that moment on the time axis yet.
Kill off 10% this year, you have 10% less dying in some future years. Average over about 100 years, zero excess deaths.
The real question is just how many of those Covid deaths had 40+ years of life left, and how many had a couple of months before pneumonia got them anyway? (Pneumonia deaths ~= covid deaths this year…)
What are the “life-years” lost in excess?
My guess is “not very much at all”.
Somebody must calculate that statistic somewhere… Average life expectancy maybe?
@David A I take it you did not read the john Hopkins study? It was not about the total deaths, It was about the senior mortality rate. I did not do the math, trusting they had done it correctly. But that is probably why your figures do not jive.
Instead of ‘Excess Deaths’ the number to track is the Deaths per X1,000s of population.
As a population grows, so too, will the average number of deaths grow. And then the average number of deaths has a variance about a mean, so unless you get numbers out in the tails of a distribution, the number will stay around the big hump in the middle of the curve.
A one sigma excursion into the region of more deaths in a particular year doesn’t signify much because it is to be expected.
Now if you plot deaths per million of population for each year, it won’t matter if the population is shrinking or growing and it would be normal for the number to dance around the long term average. It’s mostly old people who die. As medical advances occur, it would also not be a surprise to see the deaths per million decline slightly in step with significant medical advances. As pointed out above, monitoring life expectancy is keeping an eye on the same thing but from a different viewpoint.
Since the incentives are to count every death as “Muh Covid”, examination of the other categories should show a decrease for the year. About a month or so ago, I read that there were only 6 deaths from seasonal flu recorded this year. I think that was a CDC number, which I figure has since been changed once the embarrassing fact was pointed out.
What may actually raise the number of deaths this year is the spike in suicides from job losses and the social isolation of the lockdowns. I suppose substance abuse ODs would likely be up, too. And then there has been a spike in homicides from Blue enclaves putting a leash on their law enforcement officers. There has been plenty of discussion here and there about spikes being noted in those categories.
Still, I expect to see more deaths due to the Kung Flu than we would have seen from a typical flu season. I lay the blame for that squarely on the CDC (Fauci, anyone?), politicians denying or banning effective treatments solely to ‘get Trump’, devil take the fact that it killed a lot of people unnecessarily, hospitals denying care to heart/cancer/organ diseases and other serious conditions just to reserve beds for the Covid patients who never came. And then there was no treatment given for the Chinese Virus until you were sick enough for hospitalization, by which time it was too late.
All the while “cases” have no relationship to mortality from the Kung Flu.
.
.
.
.
After all of that babbling that I did that was headed towards a general point, I’ll make it here and quit while I’m behind.
The number of deaths this year should be a little higher this year due to delayed medical care, wrong treatments or too late a response in treating the Wuhan Flu, and the deaths caused by the psychological pressures of the lockdowns. Oh, and murders are way up in the Blue cities.
Deaths will not be allocated into their correct category because everything is “muhhh covid.”
@President Elect H.R. – you are close using X/1000 to track deaths. But for 8 years, we were told that we should not look at the low employment rate since it was “unfair” to Obama the Magnificent. That was because “most” (without evidence) of those contributing to the low employment rate were boomers who were retiring (they were not as Trump proved).
So tracking X/1000 is a start. But the population is aging. so a blanket X/1000 does not take into account that more people are over 65 today than even 2 years ago, and indeed there will be a higher X/1000 mortality rate given all else being equal now than 2 years ago.
Hence why the JH study tracked the mortality rate of X/1000 for a specific age group. JH does good work, and that is why the study was then hidden.
@philjourdan – I thought somewhere up there in my rambling that I obliquely mentioned that I didn’t expect X/1000 to remain constant over time because of medical advances.
Ah… there it is. Fourth paragraph. Not stated explicitly, but over time, the long term linear plot will move and will move down a little, even if there are more of us geezers, because they can keep us ticking longer. Who can say for sure how that will all balance out?
Yeah, you’ve got more geezers, but since you are using X/1000, it doesn’t matter how many more geezers there are. But X/1000 should decline slightly if they figure better ways to keep us geezers breathing longer, even if there are more of us.
Further down, I point out how political interference and reporting can screw up what should be a fairly stable sometimes rising, but generally headed lower linear plot over time. Decisions such as Cuomo’s order to send raging cases of Covid into nursing homes comes to mind. Deliberately killing people has a way of messing with statistics.
Assuming no outside interference from GEBs and their minions and doctors giving it their best at what they do, we’ll have people living longer. And as things like auto crash safety increases and occupational hazards are reduced, X/1000 should trend down over time. N’est ce pas?
“Trend down over time” – true. That is why JH used 2018. It is basically using the same time (there were no miraculous life extenders created in 2 years). That is what makes it so powerful. If factors out that there are more over 65 today than 2 years ago, so keeps the metric constant between the 2 years.
@cdquarles says “At 2018’s final death per million estimate, all cause, of 8678; you’d expect 2,872,418 deaths. We are on pace to reach that”
That is not correct per the CDC numbers…
“From 02/01/2020 to 11/28/2020
Or 302 days 2,635,214 people died
Or 8,726 people per day.
7,778 died each day in 2018. 2,839,205 deaths, 365 days.
Again, per the CDC
So, if the 2020 trend continues, then 2020 will have about 3,185,000 deaths, or 346,000 more then in 2018.”
It is all in the links I sent. As I mentioned back in maybe June Jo Nova posted that there was already something like 275k excess deaths. ?? So most happened in a four month period, March through June 2020. The CDC site defines how the calculate excess deaths.
So the population increase does not begin to account for this many more deaths. (BTW, I agree that in life years there is very little increase. WUWT had a good article on this sometime back.).
@phil, yes, I understood that portion of the John Hopkins study. However it still does not jive. More later..
Phil, please consider to read…
Genevieve Briand, assistant program director of the Applied Economics master’s degree program at Johns Hopkins University, critically analyzed the impact that COVID-19 had on U.S. deaths. According to Briand, the impact of COVID-19 on deaths in the United States can be fully understood by comparing it to the number of total deaths in the country.
The article claimed that “in contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.”
Which as I show above, this is simply not so. A 10 to 12 percent increase in one year is substainial. ( Assumes that the CDC numbers are accurate.)
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/matt-margolis/2020/11/27/johns-hopkins-study-saying-covid-19-has-relatively-no-effect-on-deaths-in-u-s-deleted-after-publication-n1178930
Again,
“All of this points to no evidence that COVID-19 created any excess deaths. Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers. We found no evidence to the contrary,” Briand concluded.”
I simply don’t find this true when looking at the CDC numbers.
The population grows by less then one percent a year. 2018 was a moderately strong flu year. The 2020 death rate is considerably higher.
@David A when hospitals are paid extra for COVID-19 deaths, of course the numbers will be inflated. It’s human nature to survive, and every industry (save Government?) is hurting.
Llanfar, of course, and yet a 12 percent increase in all cause death is very real and indicates that perhaps they are not as inflated as one may think, just that the life years lost are very reduced.
Yet lockdowns are horrendous, and very irresponsible. Also not promoting inexpensive prevention medicines that likely suppress deaths 60 to 85 percent is IMV, criminal.
But is the “all cause deaths” from suicide, alcoholism, spousal abuse, NOT getting cancer screenings on time, NOT getting pneumonia diagnosed in time from fear of hospitals, Governors putting cases in nursing homes, etc.etc. from the lock downs, or from actual Chinese Wuhan Covid?
And is the variation inside normal year to year variation, or not?
I don’t know, so “just asking”…
Dear E.M. I am hoping minds better then mine ( such as yours (-;. will look more closely at the John Hopkins study supposedly based on the CDC numbers I posted. The CDC website covers some of the information regarding causes of death, yet certainly not things like cancer screenings not done in a timely fashion. I am driving my Dad to radiation for 4 weeks, 5 days a week, 200 mile round trip for me, so I simply don’t have time to deep dive into the Hopkins study and the CDC website. And such things I do at about 20 percent of your speed. )-;
AFAICT, no, the variation is well outside of the normal. Yet the majority of deaths causitive to that death toll occurred in a four month period ending in June of 2020, with some resurgence now, that us however greatly reduced relative to the number of positive tests. ( Which we know are all screwed up.)
I see what Phil is saying about more older today, yet I don’t see how that has such a great affect. The supposed link to the Hopkins study is, unfortunately, just a link to an article about it, with a few graphics from the study thrown in.
Average age increases very slowly…
The average age in the United States is 38.2 years old. This is a one-year increase from 37.2 in 2010. States in the western half of the United States tend to have a lower median age than states in the eastern half. The median age ranges from 30.5 years to 44.3 years.
World Population Review › median-…
Median Age by State 2020 – World Population Review
@David A – I said older yesterday, but the email takes long to post I guess. :-)
ANd the point of using the “older” is that the odds of dying from Covid for anyone under 60 in relatively good health is less than from dying from an auto accident or a mugging! That is the great lie of the democrats. The mortality rate goes up exponentially once you get over 60. How many under 18 have died? Prepare to use one hand and have fingers left over.
The Flu on the other hand is more equal opportunity, hitting the very old and very young very hard. So by confining the study to the elderly (the one demographic most impacted by both), you get a fairer view. And as IIanfar says, when you subsidize a thing, you get more of that thing. Covid killed that mugging victim, not the lead in the bullet. Covid Killed George Floyd, not the lethal dose of Fentanyl. Covid killed that motorcycle rider who wiped out, not the fact that half his body was used to paint a lane of traffic. Covid killed that grandmother, 6 months before the test results came back saying she had it.
Anecdotal? HOw many do you need? The truth is as EM has stated, The number who have died OF the WuFlu is half the reported number. The reported number is those who died WITH the WuFlu.
And please state for me the official CDC guidelines on wearing masks from January 2020, to NOvember 2020.
Then stage a debate between itself. Do not believe what those who want you to fear, are telling you. Verify.
Philjourdan, do you have a link to the Hopkins study.
How do you explain the 11 percent overall increase in annual mortality? What age groups account for this increase?
What caused this increase?
The Hopkins numbers, from what I can tell, do not jive with the CDC numbers.
As to what I believe, well I believe many deaths have been falsely attributed to Cov19. ( Yes,extra funds cause extra Cov19 deaths). I also believe that Cov19 attacks various body parts, potentially causing death through heart, lung, kidney, and other organ failure. I believe it is a real disease, likely released in Wuhan by accident, yet potentially on purpose, that disparate political groups have used to try And remove President Trump and further their global power games against soverighn nations.
What nobody on this site has yet done us verify the numbers I see in the CDC link. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR3hy7dlMLzeHe-gFWS8hzSzbyKJGDU8JYKX5DlStl0qTnnq-a75p1xKE-I
and show how the Hopkins study accurately uses those numbers.
Use the wayback machine – https://web.archive.org/web/20201126223119/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19