Russian Vaccine Study Accidentally Shows Low Virus Risk

This is a Dr. John Campbell video reviewing a peer reviewed study of the Russian Sputnik V vaccine. IMHO, the numbers they give accidentally show that the virus is simply rejected without illness in 90% of people exposed to it. At about 16 minutes and 20 minutes, when talking about the placebo group: They find 1.3% became ill. Yet in final review, 15% have antibodies to the virus. I think that means only 9% of those exposed to the virus showed enough symptoms to be called sick, while 91% simply made antibodies without clinical illness. (The rest, 85% of the placebo group, simply not being exposed, neither get sick nor make antibodies).

Did I miss something here? Some arcane point of medical studies or statistics?

Or do 90% of us have zero to worry about?

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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41 Responses to Russian Vaccine Study Accidentally Shows Low Virus Risk

  1. Old Skeptic says:

    Nothing is ever an accident when someone benefits.

  2. A C Osborn says:

    I would have said that is around the figure we have for overall results.
    For over 70s it is higher and over 80s higher again.

  3. E.M.Smith says:

    @A.C.Osborn:

    Yes, but the difference here is that this is explicitly an antibody test as opposed to just “not sick” by observation or “asymptomatic covid-19 carrier” via PCR Test.

    Initially a year ago we were told 10% died because we did not know about the 90% with zero symptoms and ignored folks with minor illness. Then we “discovered” lethality was closer to 1% when you included folks with sniffles and fever.. Then we started PCR Tests and the panic moved to “asymptomatic carriers”. This, IMHO, is saying they are 90% “just made antibodies and killed the virus”, no worries. Moving lethality over another decimal point or two.

    It proves that 90% exposed to the virus do not get clinical illness but do just make antibodies and move on.

    Of the 10% who get sick, only a minority get seriously sick. By observation of those presenting with clinical symptoms (not in this study, but generally) we know only a small minority die. About what, another 1% of that 10%? So actual risk of death is about 0.001 or 0.1%?

    One caveat: Some percentage of those who did not form antibodies (the 85%) were exposed to the virus, but did not become infected nor make antibodies due to innate immunity of some sort or low viral load; but we don’t know that number.

    I think this puts actual risk of death well below seasonal flu and pneumonia.

    Perhaps on a par with vaccine damage.

  4. George O'Har says:

    On the two ships, the cruise ship and the navy ship, where captive populations were exposed over a period of time to the virus, roughly 40% of those exposed got some level of virus. 60% got nothing. I can’t remember exactly what happened, but I’d expect that the 40% went from no symptoms to actually having the virus. I believe there were deaths on the cruise ship. I know nothing about antibodies in these populations.

    Your 10% may be even more correct than the 40%. In the U.S. there have been 26 million “cases,” which presumably go from asymptomatic to dead. For a virus that’s probably been here for 16 months, that doesn’t seem especially contagious. The clinical data, some of which is probably trustworthy, tells us that we have wildly overreacted to this pandemic.

  5. Nancy & John Hultquist says:

    Last January – 2020
    A couple I know each had a day-long episode of symptoms – – gone the next day.
    January was before Panic2020 started.
    She had a day of hot-cold body temperature. What to call this? She is an experienced nurse working for a public school system. Had she gotten worse, or if it had lasted, she might have consulted a doctor. She felt okay the next day and forgot about it.
    A week later the husband had a day of intestinal upset with some diarrea. Said he felt like he ate some “slick ham” or other bad thing. Gone the next day.
    When news reports of the virus gained traction the wondered if they had made contact.
    Neither reported the episode(s) to officials and neither has been tested.
    In a population of 330,073,900 [census gov popclock] there could have been a million of such illnesses of no interest except to the person. One percent would be about 3.3M.

    COLD: Lots of cold air in the Northern Hemisphere. Stay warm and safe.

  6. Ossqss says:

    0.4% of active cases are severe or critical. Considering PCR testing performance, that is probably lower.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

  7. A C Osborn says:

    E.M.Smith says: 7 February 2021 at 3:50 pm and Ossqss says: 7 February 2021 at 5:19 pm
    In the UK after the first wave 14.6% of those presenting with Symptoms died.
    Cases = 313483 Deaths = 45878.

    By October due to all the testing and not just cases presenting it had dropped to 8.8%.

    It is now down to 2.8%

  8. A C Osborn says:

    ps the world it is currently 2.2% mortality

  9. E.M.Smith says:

    “world it is currently 2.2% mortality”

    Of those diagnosed. The Russian data show that 90% of the cases went undiagnosed even when under close medical observation and only showed up with antibody assay.

  10. A C Osborn says:

    That is only true if you believe the antibody test is accurate, there are a lot of “coronavirus” out there.
    We are pretty certain that the PCR tests that were being used at over 35 cycles were not accurate.
    Even mortality statistics are all over the place with the eradication of the flu etc.

  11. E.M.Smith says:

    I was under the impression that antibody tests were the “gold standard” and specific. No?

  12. cdquarles says:

    Antibody tests tell you if you have a recent new infection (IgM). IgG/IgA/IgE tests tell you if you have had, at some point, an infection or one close enough for cross reaction. Yes, antibody tests have sensitivity/specificity issues, too. The best test is a culture.

  13. philjourdan says:

    Democrats needed a crises to kill the Trump Economy. I believe less and less about this Chinese Flu with each passing revelation. I am not so naive as to believe that the CDC is staffed by a bunch of blithering idiots. They knew about Ivermectin. They new about HCQ. They knew about ventilators. But they had to kill enough folks to evoke a panic.

    And they succeeded.

  14. another ian says:

    “Hugh

    February 7, 2021 at 12:26 pm

    Imagine a vaccine so safe you have to be threatened to take it for a virus so deadly you have to be tested to know if you have it? Huh?”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2021/02/07/one-toronto-grocer-vs-the-machine/#comment-1407794

  15. YMMV says:

    We have been potentially exposed to the virus for over a year, and we have not got sick yet.
    Is that because we were not actually exposed or is it because we were and dodged the bullet?
    So I find it strange that they can do vaccine trials by seeing how many get sick after only a few weeks.
    I understand it; that’s why the trials have to have large numbers. With all the reports about cases and deaths, we know very little about how many have been exposed and didn’t get sick, or have been exposed and were asymptomatic. I would like to know how far off is herd immunity.
    We do get some reports, but they vary far too much. This country doesn’t have a high antibody rate, this other country has a 50% rate. So I don’t pay too much attention.

    But note that the body has a series of firewalls. Your body can reject it before it gets to the antibody stage. Vitamin D for the innate immune system! (which is not as good in older people).
    If you are young and healthy, no worries (almost). If not, the danger is real.

  16. philjourdan says:

    @YNNV – I donate blood as often (it use to be every 8 weeks until this hoax screwed things up) as I can. And every time I donate, they test for the WuFlu antibodies. negative so far. That is really the only way to determine if you got it. And yes, a year ago I was in Cali, and flying on airplanes with no masks. I got the old fashion flu (mild, only out for a day), but so far, no WuFlu.

  17. H.R. says:

    @YMMV who closed with: “If you are young and healthy, no worries (almost). If not, the danger is real.”

    That is what has struck me as being the most unusual aspect of this virus. It seems to exploit chinks in the body’s defenses. Yes, so do other viruses, but Kung Flu seems to me to have upped that a level. It is quite deadly for the elderly with comorbidities and age-weakened immune systems. It is a killer.

    So if you can tune up your immune system to peak performance, even if aged, in my modestly informed opinion, you are golden. You’ll either not get sick at all, get a bad few days, or maybe even a week or two of nasty, abject misery, but you won’t die.

    If you have a weak immune system and any weakened organ function, the Wuhan Flu will target and hit that weakness like a Tomahawk Missile.

    Every year, seasonal flu claims the lives of the aged in large numbers. I think the Chinese Virus is just a bit better than that.

    The other odd thing about Xi’s Disease is that it seems to ignore the young. I read a couple of months ago that the young are still very much at risk from seasonal flu, but have little to no risk from the WuFlu. That’s kind of weird. I wish I had marked the reference.

    Oh… around July-August-September-ish, I read that the CDC’s numbers on deaths by age groups showed that the 1-to-15 year age group had o.o deaths from “muuhhh… RONA!” I read that stat from someone who noticed and posted a comment somewhere. I wouldn’t be surprised to find that because of that remark, the CDC has updated their stats to show that kids are dropping like flies.
    .
    .
    .
    Good points in your comment, YMMV. I just wanted to expand a bit on one aspect of your comment.

  18. philjourdan says:

    @H.R. – Re: “If you are young and healthy”

    That is what also gripes the hell out of me! They are running panic porn ads here where young people are saying they are not worried about the Chinese Flu and the narrator says “Famous last words”. The problem is that those saying them have a better chance of being hit by a bus than from dying from the Chinese flu! That puts the exclamation point on – they are lying to us BIG TIME.

  19. H.R. says:

    @phil – I should hope you know by now I am snow-birding in Florida. It drives me absolutely NUTS! to see people walking around out in the sunshine – virus killing UV, and Vitamin D producing sunshine – with their masks on.

    WTF?!? I want to yell at them, “Get a clue!” You learned about flu prevention and things that kill viruses in grade school and high school. And now you forget all that because some CDC bureaucrat, who stands to rake in megabucks, says you should wear a bandana to protect yourself?!? Please go virtue-signal yourself to an orgasm somewhere else, pretty please? Myself? I’m doing fine, thank you very much.”
    .
    .
    .
    The sad thing is there are millions that have a clue, but still “wear the mask of submission.” They know grimy, inadequate, ill-fitting and under-spec masks are a joke, but they wear them. THAT is the problem.

    Again, the Mrs. and I wear masks into restaurants, because they can deny you entry to protect their biz and we wanna eat, but we don’t wear them on the way out because what are they going to do; throw you out?

    “Don’t bother throwing us out. We were just leaving.”🤣🤣

  20. H.R. says:

    P.S. to all – I think E.M. might be right about the masks being an unintended consequence that foils the Surveillance State.****

    So half the people you see driving alone in their car while wearing a mask are IDIOTS! while the other half are just wily foxes.
    .
    .
    .
    **** I can’t recall if E.M. posted on the topic or if it came up in comments, but there was a video or article here recently that pointed out the impossibility of escaping video surveillance.
    .
    .
    .
    .
    Random thought alert!

    It just occurred to me that “From each according to his abilities. To each according to his needs” might have a snowball’s chance in Hell if it weren’t for all the bureaucrats needed to administer the system and, of course, make a total hash of it all.

    Nose down, full throttle, into the ground and pay us on the 1st or 15th of the month, please. “We hope you enjoyed your flight on Government Bureaucrat Airlines and look forward to having any survivors fly with us again soon. Mind the step, please.”

  21. E.M.Smith says:

    @H.R.:

    Ron White joke about being on Puddle Jumper Airlines when equipment problems have them do a return to launch point. Guy next to him asks “How far you think the plane can go?”… Ron answers: “All the way to the scene of the crash!”… ;-)

    FWIW, I’ve been nagged by the desire to get N95 Masks custom made as full face. Your choice of Celebrity, Political Sarc, or Anonymous… and maybe Kids Masks in Pig, Mouse, Cat, Dog etc. Not just the ones that are cloth and cover nose / mouth with a dog face or ‘whatever’, I’m talking full below chin to top of head. EXACTLY to make the cameras useless.

    Take your pick, Deep State: MASK Mandate, or Camera Surveillance. Pick ONE.

    Would also be nice to have a “generic blank face”… and an NPC one… and… ;-)

    Can you imagine the fun of having Biden on camera in 12 States and robbing liquor stores in 3 of them? … Or a Church Parking Lot just FULL of Melania & The Donald?

  22. another ian says:

    E.M. How about a full face mask modelled on Ned Kelly’s version?

    http://ergo.slv.vic.gov.au/explore-history/rebels-outlaws/bushrangers/ned-kellys-armour

  23. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    That’s a good one! Or maybe the “Knight That Says NI!” :-)

    Though wearing a big metal bucket all day long might get tiring…

    FWIW, a college friend made a Halloween costume once with a 5 gallon bucket as his ‘helmet’ – BUT… he put a small green light inside the bucket, and his ‘faceplate’ was a Fresnel lens oriented such that his head looked reduced in size by about 1/2…

    So he had this tiny green head inside this bucket… Freaked out a lot of folks when he’d switch on the light suddenly ;-)

    So maybe some face paint and then a full filtering bucket, ‘mood lighting’ and then a head that’s the wrong size…

  24. “Urgent request for assistance from people who know the Al Ajman area, Dubai, UAE” https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2021/02/urgent-request-for-assistance-from-people-who-know-the-al-ajman-area-dubai-uae.html says:

    O/T but might be some shit in the fan

    “Urgent request for assistance from people who know the Al Ajman area, Dubai, UAE”

    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2021/02/urgent-request-for-assistance-from-people-who-know-the-al-ajman-area-dubai-uae.html

    [Reply: Another Ian, when you make a “special” user name like that to call something urgent, it just tosses it into the “moderation” queue until such time as I wake up, make coffee, have a bit of a read of other stuff, visit the ‘little room’, think about what to do for the day, ponder breakfast, and then get a little bit bored with reading other stuff. Probably not what you wanted.

    Realize that now, at that site, is a bit of a “thanks to all who’ve already solved the question” in the form of:

    UPDATE

    From the bottom of my heart and from the hearts of a desperate family – thank you to the many readers who have helped identify the building.

    so all “urgency” is now past and no help can be rendered. Think about it. -E.M.S. ]

  25. another ian says:

    E.M. I just spread a link to a request for helping ID a building in Dubai via Michael Smith news and got a response I’ve never seen before. That has now gone ack willie””

  26. rhoda klapp says:

    another ian, ack willie is WW1 phonetic alphabet for A W. What that means is beyond my guess, unless it’s something like ‘all wrong’.

  27. another ian says:

    And up to early WW2. I got it from family who did their bit.

    As I’ve linked to Michael Smith before without what I got, and the times being what they are, I’m making sure that it was all “official”

  28. another ian says:

    rhoda

    Penny drops – “absent without”

  29. David A says:

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/30/asia/india-covid-antibody-study-intl-hnk-scli/index.html

    India study,
    A national survey of more than 29,000 people across 700 villages and wards found that about one in 15 people above the age of 10 had antibodies against the coronavirus, according to the Indian Council of Medical Research. The survey was conducted from mid-August to mid-September.”

    CNN article somehow spins this as bad news. CNN notes that India does not practice social distancing in most areas, that only 86 percent of deaths are likely even reported.

    Yet I think this study may underestimate the number exposed to the virus. Very dense population, no social distancing in most areas, five months after the study hospitals are still not overwhelmed, death rate is very low. Only one percent of cases are active! Yes, 99 percent of all cases are discharged! Daily deaths at 10 percent of the peak, and daily cases are way down, despite increased testing.

  30. rhoda klapp says:

    I guess ack willie is ANZAC-speak for what we in the UK call AWOL and pronounce A-woll.

    What Americans call A dubya L

    The alphabet, for completeness..

    A – Ack

    B – Beer

    C – Charlie

    D – Don

    E – Edward

    F – Freddie

    G – Gee

    H – Harry

    I – Ink

    J – Johnnie

    K – King

    L – London

    M – Emma

    N – Nuts

    O – Oranges

    P – Pip

    Q – Queen

    R – Robert

    S – Esses

    T – Toc

    U – Uncle

    V – Vic

    W – William

    X – X-Ray

    Y – Yorker

    Z – Zebra

  31. E.M.Smith says:

    FWIW, I’m pretty sure I first heard “Ack Willy” from my mum, a W.W.II “war bride” from the UK…

    @Rhoda:

    Thanks for that version of the phonetic alphabet. There were (are?) several. Looks like the UK one is very different from the USA Military (that is different from the Ham Radio one that is different from…)
    https://usarmybasic.com/army-knowledge/phonetic-alphabet
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_phonetic_alphabet
    has a nice chart in it showing the variations over time in the ‘history’ part.

    A Argentine Amsterdam Amsterdam Amsterdam Amsterdam Able ABLE ADAM ANA ALFA Alfa Alfa Alfa Alfa AL FAH Alfa AL FAH

    B Brussels Baltimore Baltimore Baltimore Baltimore Baker BAKER BAKER BRAZIL BETA Beta Bravo Bravo Bravo BRAH VOH Bravo BRAH VOH

    C Canada Canada Casablanca Casablanca Casablanca Charlie CHARLIE CHARLIE COCO CHARLIE Coca Coca Charlie Charlie CHAR LEE or SHAR LEE Charlie CHAR LEE or SHAR LEE

    D Damascus Denmark Danemark Danemark Danemark Dog DOG DAVID DADO DELTA Delta Delta Delta Delta DELL TAH Delta DELL TAH

    E Ecuador Eddystone Edison Edison Edison Easy EASY EDWARD ELSA EDWARD Echo Echo Echo Echo ECK OH Echo ECK OH

    Unfortunately, I’ve been exposed to a few of them so now mix them freely… but note that “Whiskey Tango Foxtrot” has entered common use ;-)

  32. E.M.Smith says:

    @David A:

    Note, too, that antibody levels drop to below the test threshold over time as Memory T Cells retain the information and manufacture of the antibodies is a wasted effort long term.

    In practical terms this means that if you have 10% with antibodies, a larger number HAD antibodies and now has memory T cell based immunity. So you can’t just use antibody assay to tell you how many were infected over longer (year) periods of time. We’re already in that longer period of time…

  33. rhoda klapp says:

    I recall from when I had to deal with hexadecimal, the extra characters were able baker charlie dog easy fox, from the USN alphabet, I think.

  34. another ian says:

    rhoda

    IIRC Commonwealth forces had to change to US phonetic code when combined ops began.

    Gets a mention in Spike Milligan’s war histories I think

  35. another ian says:

    “How do they know the Super Bowl winner tonight? What about the mail-in points?”

    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2021/02/how-do-they-know-the-super-bowl-winner-tonight-what-about-the-mail-in-points.html

  36. Steven Fraser says:

    @another ian: Do the teams get additional points for the replays?

  37. onM says:

    Fraser,
    Yes, 4 of the replay refs watched the three field goals another 3833 times and one of the on field refs watched it another one time.

  38. another ian says:

    Maybe if you feel it badly enough?

  39. Chris In Calgary says:

    @another ian “How do they know the Super Bowl winner tonight? What about the mail-in points?”

    That’s easy. KC mailed in points for Tampa. Like the touchdown they gifted them at the end of the 2nd quarter. Or, all the penalties they took. Without the mail-in points KC had a chance to win…

  40. philjourdan says:

    @Chris in Calgary – Ouch! Sounds like you are not happy with the KC playing. But I did note in all of that, you did not blame the refs, or the PatriotsBuccaneers.

    I was a bit surprised myself at the poor showing. But I am reminded of another “native american” team back in the mid 80s. Who came in off a Superbowl win and was going to tear up the puny opposition to win back2back SBs! Just like KC, they had beaten their opponent in the regular season too.

    But that score was 38-9. And those losers were the Redskins{the team who shall not be named}

    One of 2 RIngs for Jim Plunkett – the only QB with multiple SB wins NOT in the HOF.

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