This graph is from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
To me, this looks like it’s headed for “over and done”.
We’ve got States that didn’t “lock down” and we’ve got States that have said, effectively, FU We’re getting back to work, and we’ve had thousands in the streets in “peaceful protests”. And it looks to me like the virus has just reached the “running out of targets” stage.
Admittedly, there’s also that small point about folks realizing running the PCR “test” at a 30 to 40 cycle will find Covid in anything, so have backed off to a more sane “20 something”. Admittedly, we’ve got some vaccinations done… but IMHO not enough to account for this.
From what I’ve seen, here in Biggest Hot Spot California, (at 3.5 million cases we lead #2 Texas by 900,000) folks have more said “screw it” on protections and “lock down” than continuing “conformance”. We’ve had family over. I put on the crappiest mask to enter stores now (used “surgical”, no longer using the N95 ) and we stopped the alcohol washes of hands 1/2 a year ago.
Yet California daily new cases at 4976 match, roughly, June 17 of 2020 at 4197. Plunging from a peak of 61,569 last December 16. Our plunge is faster than the average of the nation, even though folks can now (Finally!) get hair cuts and go to restaurants (even if they have us sit in tents in the parking lot).
So how can you explain that drop other than that “the virus made its run and now it is running out of vulnerable hosts”?
Projecting the present trajectory (always risky, but …) it looks like it hits near zero in about 2 weeks. Mid March ought to be a big psychological adjustment date.