Has W.W.III already started?

Really, I’m not sure but think maybe it has.

The “choosing up sides” is mostly done. There’s a few folks still fence sitting, but even historically neutral Sweden & Switzerland have chosen a side. Some are “on a side” but thinking about changing (Turkey) or going neutral (Hungary).

The “Regional Conflict” is well underway. Like Germany gathering up the German bits scattered across Europe at the start of W.W.II (before we knew it was a World War in the making); Russia is gathering up some scattered Russian Bits. Russia still has 3 bits to pick up (that I know of…). Odessa, Transnistria, and a connection to the Kaliningrad Oblast (formerly Königsberg before the last dance of the bombs . . .)

THE major difference being that nobody was busy blowing up the prior German bits the way Rump Ukraine was busy blowing up the Donbass Russians (and obliterating their language and culture). So Russia has a modestly better justification than did Mr. H. who was more driven by power lust and “ethnic purity”. (It is Rump Ukraine that has inherited the racial ideology of Mr. H. in such groups as the Azov Battalion and such).

The Duran has a nice name for how the ongoing ramp up in warfare is happening. “The Escalation Escalator”. We are on it, for sure. The West, just a few weeks / months ago had a series of Red Lines they would not cross; as they would make The West combatants in a European War. No “offensive weapons”, only defensive. Nothing that would reach deep into Russia. Nothing usable for a rolling advance into Russia (an “Offensive”). Those have now been rather rapidly cast aside. We got on the Escalator, are trapped by the side barriers, and turning around to go back down and get off is very hard against the tide of motion.

We started off small. Things like using our Satellite assets to provide “intelligence”. I.E. being Spies for Ukraine. Then whole boat loads of money (borrowed from someone else or just printed out of thin air). The West (EU, UK, USA, etc.) also instituted what is effectively an Economic Embargo. Arguably an act of War in itself (but Russia just flowed around it… so didn’t start blowing up The West). We then jumped to artillery, and ammunition for same, along with various other bits of kit. We became The Arsenal Of Azov & Color Revolution Soros…

Then the escalator picked up speed.

HIMARS, but at first only short range rockets. But for how long?

Drones of various sorts (including Spy drones overhead) but without clarity as to operators… Similarly a Patriot Air Defense system or two and more. Boat loads of Infantry Fighting Vehicles and more. All the ancillary bits of an offensive army. But at the time, the statement made was “Absolutely NO Tanks!”. As that would be the start of W.W.III.

Now, in a Mad Rush, we have The West rolling over that Bright Red Line with some of the world’s best Main Battle Tanks with the expressed desire that they be used in an “offensive” to take back the Russian bits of Ukraine (including Crimea). Anyone doubting that Tanks are an “offensive weapon” ought to review the tank battle of Desert Storm during the USA assault on Iraq…

Now, with Tanks already “in the works”, the escalator is arriving at the Attack Jet Plane floor. As of now, just a few F-16 aircraft are on the table. But the escalator does not slow… More and MORE and MORE!! is the demand. Already talk of F-35 fighters and rumors of a flight of B-52 bombers on the way over.

“In it to win it!” and damn the cost (in lives or money or honor or reputation or rule of law or…)

Now Russian Military Doctrine says it is Just Fine to use Tactical Nukes in a land battle with, oh, massed army & tanks. Putin has reminded The West of this military fact. (Putin does not make the Russian Military Doctrine, BTW. Though I think he does sign off on acceptance of it when presented.) Russia has nuclear capable hypersonic rockets that nobody can stop. Right Now they are only using “conventional” explosives on them and being very careful to only take out war supportive infrastructure like the electric grid that runs the Ukrainian Rail System (that moves tanks & troops).

So were is the top of this escalator?

That’s the sad thing. Our “leaders” do not know and are not interested in looking. All they seem to know is “We need MORE for Ukraine!!!”… No “end game”. No “exit strategy”. No “expected losses”. Nothing but war lust (and greed? Ukraine IS their money laundry after all…).

Now we know that for Russia this really IS a threat to their very existence. NATO / GEBs ran several Color Revolutions in a row. Slowly advancing toward Russia (so not hard to see the end goal). Then NATO / GEBs tried an assasination / Color Revolution in Belarus. Well, that failed. And took out the Russian Friendly Elected Ukrainian leadership and began getting the place tuned up for a war on Russia. (But now Russia moved first, not being ignorant nor idiots). But the pattern of encroachment and method was very clear, then.

So now some folks in The West claim to not understand why Belarus is firmly aligned with Russia… Well if Side A tried to kill me and Side B saved my hide, you can bet I’d be 100% with Side B, not Side A. And Russia / Putin saw this same process headed for them…

Putin tossed out Soros and his NGOs (something any nation desiring freedom and liberty ought to do, BTW. India too did this.) And the “Oligarchs” that had been installed by The West after the fall of the USSR got clipped. (That ended the Ruling Class that The West was trying to get in place). Overall, Russia has just done a great job of finding and removing the hidden tentacles of power being wrapped around it. Thus The West plot to use Ukraine in a Proxy War to destabilize Russia.

Now you can argue over the question of “provocation too much” vs “Putin moved first”. I’m not seeing much way to sort it out. There were 9 years of Ukrainian provocation (At NATO / EU / USA / UK / CIA / etc. etc. insistance). The West brokered and broke both Minsk I and Minsk II agreements (and are now on record saying they were a sham from the start, just to buy time to build up the Ukrainian military and get them ready to attack Russia). Ukraine shelled the “Breakaway Republics” (that were supposed to get autonomy under Minsk agreements…) and then demanded the eradication of their Russian language and culture. Did that eventually “become too much”? Or did Putin just finally “move first” before Ukraine could move? Was he, finally, provoked enough to “start it”; or did he see the opportunity to “move fast and first” to prevent it? Only he will really know.

But now we are firmly “in it”.

The NATO / GEBs created Grand Ukrainian Army that was present a year ago has been destroyed. All that Soviet Era equipment as been blown up, worn out, or unable to get parts & ammo. The well trained soldiers largely dead or wounded. Now Ukraine is using 2nd or 3rd tier conscripts, poorly trained, and is surviving on NATO equipment (and money…) being supplied Real Soon Now. They have little idea how to operate this equipment. It will be labeled in several languages but not one of them Ukrainian. (Maybe they can put Post It notes on them… ;-) But it will be supplied. This, then will be rushed to the Russian Front and break its teeth on them.

In the mean time, Russia is not static and not stupid. They have made rather hard defenses about their present positions. Tank traps and more. They are advancing across a broad line to remove the last bits of the Ukrainian army from the provinces that have voted to be part of Russia (and now, from the Russian Legal POV, ARE Russia). THE big question here just being “where will they stop”. I suspect inside a couple of weeks that task will be completed, given the facts on the ground with key cities surrounded and re-supply cut off.

So some speculation:

Russia KNOWS all this too.

They also know there is nobody who they can trust in “negotiations”. It has been lies all the way down from NATO / EU / USA etc. for at least 10 years. The West has admitted it and said so publicly (from several high ranking sources). Mr. Z. has stated that “Putin is nothing” to him. Can’t negotiate with that… Several ranking USA politicians have said that “Regime Change” in Russia is the only way to end this. Can’t negotiate with that. Rinse & Repeat. So this will not end in a “negotiated” settlement. It will only end if military stability is clearly in place. Russia Wins or NATO Wins. Or everyone is dead and glowing in the dark… Let’s try to avoid that last one, shall we?…

So we are at a crossroads.

A “NATO Win” is capitulation by Russia, ouster of Putin, break up of the Russian Federation and / or nuclear World War III if Russia does not capitulate and agree to destruction & disassembly. I don’t see any path to acceptance of that by either Putin, The Duma, or the Russian People.

A “Russian Win” is already in progress. The “Russian Regions” made part of Russia. De-Nazification of Ukraine (Azov battalion basically already destroyed, just Nazi leaning leadership pods to go). Destruction of the Ukrainian Military (about 70% done and proceeding to conclusion in the next few weeks to months). Rump Ukraine to be made Neutral and NOT part of NATO.

Of these two, momentum is clearly with the “Russian Win” side. So NATO is pushing hard on the Escalator GO! Button. NATO is driven by fear of losing as is evident on the battlefields.

This makes it an escalating Race Condition without a clear end state.

So far, Putin has clearly and honestly stated Russian Goals, and Russian Rules of Engagement. NATO has not (been honest, clearly stated anything as they are muddled in their thinking, has no clear goals other than “keep Ukraine in play”, and they have violated Red Line “rules of engagement” regularly). The NATO actions most look like “Escalate until we win, NO MATTER WHAT”.

So we have the immovable object in Russia (as surrender is their own destruction as a nation and culture) and we have the unstopping force in NATO (who may be stoppable but are not going to stop until either they get their way and end the tantrum, or are spanked into submission). IMHO that means the only tipping point question is “who runs out of escalation first?”.

Will Putin actually blink at the idea of NATO nukes falling on Russia? Or is it clear to him that Russia would survive and NATO would not. That Russia has prepared Civil Defense and The West does not.

Will NATO actually blink as Russia continues to chew up and spit out all their fancy equipment? As their ammunition supply is shown to be insufficient, their factories incapable of more, and Russian Defenses more formidable than expected?

Will the Citizens of The West spank their Political Overlords enough to stop this folly? Make it clear we have no interest in destroying Russia, Russians, or Taking Over The World? Already the EU is mid-breakup. UK is out. Hungary is on the edge and grumpy. Power supply and industry unstable and failing. Several other countries expressing resentment. The Slavic Balkans not interested in killing fellow Slavs. Is it even possible anymore for the Citizens of so called “Western Democracies” to have influence over the WEF inspired & installed overlords?

In my opinion, one of those three has to happen to get off this escalator. Otherwise, the top end of unlimited escalation is a Nuclear World War III between Russia & NATO, that will then let loose China on Taiwan and Israel vs Iran & Friends (and who knows how many other regional conflicts with The Global North in flames and glowing in the dark…)

So that’s the way I see it. Armageddon with Nukes, vs “somebody blinks” vs “people taking back control of government”.

Of those three, I’d most like to see a return of real democracy to The West. But I’m pretty sure that can’t happen. The WEFies and DNC fellow travelers control the vote counting and they will not go quietly, nor legally.

If that doesn’t happen, I’m pretty sure Putin is not going to “blink”. Russia has already issued orders to go to full war footing for a War With NATO. Medvedev (more hawkish than Putin…) is in charge of their Military Industrial Complex and production. A 1.5 Million man army is already being called up and assembled. Their military doctrine includes use of nukes if needed and they are not afraid of war; but are very aware of hundreds of years of invasions from The West being driven out.

With “no democratic peace” via The People, and Russia not going to “blink” as it is suicide if they do and very much not in their character, that just leaves NATO tossing in the towel as an exit.

NATO & The GEBs have a long history of never giving up on a goal (see their ongoing fantasy of power…) once they have it in mind. Their actions so far indicate they really Really REALLY want to take down Putin and they feel that Russia has been a thorn in their side for just too long; preventing their desired World Domination. So I don’t see NATO & The West suddenly breaking out in a peace movement.

Which brings me to the present most likely end games.

Preamble To The End: This is already a NATO / Russia hot war. The fiction that NATO isn’t “in it” is now gone. Several leaders in the EU and NATO have said they see this as a War With Russia. Russia knows it has been fighting NATO since the Belarus Color Revolution failure (though as a Cold War) and knows it has been a NATO Hot War since Boris J. and the CIA told Mr. Z. to not negotiate a deal about 9 months ago (then confirmed with massive arms & money shipments).

You can’t be the major arsenal / arms supplier, fund one side of a war, provide resupply, repair, and R&R facilities in Poland (and other NATO countries) along with training facilities for war and battlefield intelligence and then claim you are not a party to the conflict. Everybody now knows this.

Russia is already legitimately able to target for destruction any of those things (and the factories and shipping facilities for those weapons in any of Germany, UK, France, Poland, and yes, the USA.) The only reasons not to hit them are self restraint by Putin, and / or a desire to manage the pace of escalation to best effect for Russia.

So given all that:

I see two likely paths.

1) Russia destroys Ukraine as a country within a few months and either before most of The Western Kit shows up, or as it shows up and gets blown up. A clear Russian Victory before NATO can get a full Combined Arms Army & Air Corps in place in Ukraine. At that point, NATO would have to launch an assault on Russia in a non-NATO member country. A clear “go” for Russia to use nukes to defend itself. Perhaps a Nuke Or Two taking out 150,000 Polish and 100,000 US Soldiers in that big southern Poland border build up would “bring clarity” to The Overlords Of The West (GEBs et. al.) just what the stakes might me.

2) NATO gets a big combined arms force rolling, steamrolls over Ukraine with it (including the Russian Bits) and we have Strategic Nuclear W.W.III with the end of everything as we know it. (China then steps in for The Win..)

Neither of those is very good, but given a choice, I’d take the first one.

My most preferable would still be for The West to realize the folly of picking a war with Russia, but that looks to be unobtainable, what with our “Leaders” psychopaths and our “Elections” just show fluff.

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