Looks like the Moon does matter:
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 112, C02002, 15 PP., 2007
The 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and surface temperature variability in the northeast Pacific
Stewart M. McKinnell
North Pacific Marine Science Organization, c/o Institute of Ocean Sciences, Sidney, British Columbia, Canada
William R. Crawford
Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Institute of Ocean Sciences, Sidney, British Columbia, Canada
The 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle (LNC) is a significant feature of winter (January) air and sea temperatures along the North American west coast over a 400-year period. Yet much of the recent temperature variation can also be explained by wind patterns associated with the PNA teleconnection. At Sitka, Alaska, (57°N) and nearby stations in northern British Columbia, the January PNA index accounts for over 70% of average January air temperatures in lengthy meteorological records. It appears that the LNC signal in January air temperatures in this region is not independent of the PNA, but is a component of it. The Sitka air temperature record, along with SSTs along the British Columbia coast and the PNA index have significant cross-correlations with the LNC that appear at a 2-year lag, LNC leading. The influence of the PNA pattern declines in winter with decreasing latitude but the LNC component does not. It appears as a significant feature of long-term SST variation at Scripps Pier and the California Current System. The LNC also appears over centennial-scales in proxy temperatures along western North America. The linkage of LNC-moderated surface temperatures to processes involving basin-scale teleconnections expands the possibility that the proximate mechanism may be located remotely from its expression in the northeast Pacific. Some of the largest potential sources of a diurnal tidal signal in the atmosphere are located in the western Pacific; the Sea of Okhotsk and the Indonesian archipelago.
Looks like I need to spend some time searching on LNC and PNA…
[ h/t to David here: https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/06/13/water-ghg-comparison/#comment-19247 for the inspiration for this look. ]
Per NOAA, there’s a connection of the PNA and NOA:
2. North Atlantic Oscillation / Pacific – North American pattern (NAO/PNA)
Calculating the Daily PNA and NAO teleconnection indices
The calculation procedure and base period have changed for calculating the daily NAO and PNA teleconnection indices. These changes have been made to eliminate inconsistencies in the way that the monthly and daily indices are calculated.
The procedure used to calculate the daily PNA and NAO teleconnection indices is based on the Rotated Principal Component Analysis (RPCA) used by Barnston and Livezey (1987, Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1083-1126). This procedure isolates the primary teleconnection patterns for all months and allows time series of the patterns to be constructed. To obtain the teleconnection patterns, the RPCA technique is applied to monthly standardized 500-mb height anomalies obtained from the CDAS in the analysis region 20°N-90°N between January 1950 and December 2000. Click here for more information on the teleconnection pattern calculation procedures.
The monthly teleconnection patterns are now linearly interpolated to the day in question, and therefore account for the seasonality inherent in the NAO and PNA patterns. Previously, the annual mean PNA and NAO patterns were used, which were based on monthly non-standardized anomalies. The standardized anomalies are now calculated based on the 1950-2000 climatological daily mean and standard deviation, whereas the anomalies were previously calculated from the 1971-2000 base period daily means.
The daily teleconnection indices are now calculated using the Least Squares regression approach identical to that used for the monthly indices. Therefore, all of the teleconnection patterns valid for the day in question are now recognized when calculating the PNA and NAO indices. The daily indices now represent the combination of teleconnection patterns that accounts for the most spatial variance of the observed anomaly map on any given day. Previously, the indices represented the spatial correlation between the annual mean loading pattern of the NAO or PNA and the daily height anomalies, and did not account for the spatial overlap that exists amongst the various teleconnection patterns.
So one must wonder when they are constantly re-jiggering the method just what they are taking out of the soup…
More on the PNA here:
With a nice picture.
So as we don’t have much historical data from out there were the water oscillates, can we “talk some more” about how Alaska and Canada were “warming up so much” in the years leading up that peak just a while ago? And maybe about where it would be headed in a downturn?
Maybe all that stuff up in the sky matters. Maybe a lot. Maybe even a lot more than CO2.
At least we can observe and measure the changes caused by the “stuff in the sky”…