20 March 2020 Covid-19 USA 16,000 Cases, Italy 4000 Dead

This Is NOT The Flu, Comparison To Flu Is Stupid

We are only at the start of this pandemic. There is no immunity. We do not have proven vaccines available. It is rising exponentially. The death rate in actual practice in places with enough resolved cases for valid data is about 3.4% with good medical care, and up to 12% once the medical system is overwhelmed. Those not dead are often hospitalized for weeks to months and have significant lung damage.

The Flu is at the end of season. We have many immune to flu, and we have vaccines for flu. The death rate is about 0.1%. Recovery generally does not require weeks on respirators nor result in permanent disability.

Anyone attempting to equate the two is ignoring the time axis, the exponential math, the death rate differential, the damage, and more. They are not thinking.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This list is sorted by new cases. Italy is now #1 in new cases and total deaths. From 47k cases, 4k deaths. An 8.5% fatality so far. That is NOT like the flu. Their hospital system is already in melt down, so that will get worse from here. 627 new dead today, and they are now trucking bodys to other areas as they can’t handle that many dead where they are dying. 37,000 are still hospitalzed or in other treatment. 2,655 in ICU of which, historically, over 80% die. This is NOT like the flu.

Italy has used Ibuprofen a lot, and Ibuprofen is believed to make the infection worse. Naproxen Sodium is also suspect as is any anti-inflammatory. This is very unlike the flu.

Country  Total	New	Deaths	New	Recovrd	Active	Serious	Per1M Pop
Italy	47,021	+5,986	4,032	+627	5,129	37,860	2,655	778
Germany	19,711	+4,391	59	+15	180	19,472	2	235
USA	16,621	+2,832	225	+18	125	16,271	64	50
Spain	20,412	+2,335	1,044	+213	1,588	17,780	939	437
France	12,612	+1,617	450	+78	1,295	10,867	1,122	193
Iran	19,644	+1,237	1,433	+149	6,745	11,466		234
Switz.	5,369	+1,147	56	+13	15	5,298		620
UK	3,983	+714	177	+33	65	3,741	20	59
Netherl	2,994	+534	106	+30	2	2,886	210	175
Belgium	2,257	+462	37	+16	204	2,016	164	195
Austria	2,491	+312	6		9	2,476	14	277
Portugl	1,020	+234	6	+2	5	1,009	26	100
Sweden	1,639	+200	16	+5	16	1,607	21	162
Luxemb.	484	+149	5	+1	6	473	1	773
Czechia	833	+139			4	829	6	78
Norway	1,922	+132	7		1	1,914	27	355
Malaysa	1,030	+130	3	+1	87	940	26	32

It is known that Chloroquine / Hydrochloroquine and related derivatives work to clear the virus. The mechanism is known, and clinical use has confirmed it works. Having more trials is a “nice to have”, putting treatment into effect now is critical. All medical staff ought to be put on it as a prophylactic. We do this already with that drug in malaria zones. There is little downside if it does not work and huge benefits if it does.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Also sorted by new cases. Clearly Washington has got contagion under control, New York not yet. California, given our size, doing OK. We’ll see if the Statewide shelter in place helps.

USA
State	        Total	New     Deaths	New     Recov'd	Active
New York	7,246	+1,879	39	+5		7,207
New Jersey	890	+148	11	+2		879
Georgia	        420	+133	13	+3		407
Florida	        520	+103	11	+2		509
Louisiana	479	+87	11	+1		468
California	1,095	+86	21	+2	6	1,068
Pennsylvania	281	+74	1			280
Texas	        353	+69	5		4	344
Ohio	        174	+55	2	+2		172
North Carolina	169	+45				169
Maryland	149	+42	1		4	144
Wisconsin	193	+34	3	+3	1	189
Arizona	        78	+33			1	77
Distt Columbia	71	+31	3			68
Mississippi	80	+29	1			79
Minnesota	115	+24				115
Indiana	        83	+23	2			81
Virginia	121	+22	2		1	118
Missouri	53	+22	1			52
Rhode Island	54	+10				54
Kentucky	47	+10	2		2	43
Kansas	        46	+10	1			45
Delaware	38	+7				38
Vermont	        29	+7	2	+2		27
Alabama	        83	+5				83
West Virginia	7	+5				7
Maine	        56	+4				56
Hawaii	        26	+4				26
Arkansas	65	+3				65
Oklahoma	49	+3	1		1	47
Nebraska	32	+3				32
Montana	        15	+3				15
South Dakota	14	+3	1			13
Alaska	        12	+3				12
Washington	1,378	+2	74		102	1,202
Michigan	338	+2	3			335
Illinois	423	+1	4		2	417
Tennessee	155	+1				155
Nevada	        96	+1	1			95
South Carolina	82	+1	3			79
North Dakota	19	+1				19
Wyoming	        19	+1				19
Massachusetts	328				1	327
Colorado	277		4			273
Connecticut	159		3	+1		156
Oregon	        88		3			85
Utah	        78					78
Iowa	        45					45
New Hampshire	44					44
New Mexico	35					35
Idaho	        23					23
Diamond  Cruise	49	+2				49
Grand P. Cruise	23	+1	1			22
Others	        28	+5				28

In good news, Trump today announced Tax Day moved from April 15 to July 15th. You can file now for refunds if desired.

Hopefully, too, the news about avoiding anti-inflammatory drugs and useful treatments will rapidly spread through the world and be used.

Prior postings in the category: Covid

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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124 Responses to 20 March 2020 Covid-19 USA 16,000 Cases, Italy 4000 Dead

  1. Bruce Ryan says:

    I vacillate from worry to thinking, what the hell, 85% get something between no symptoms and a cold. The other 15% are old and or immune-compromised. Shut the world down so I can sell advertising on the telly.

  2. Another Ian says:

    “Hopeful: Summary of Wuhan #Coronavirus Therapies and Potential Cures”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/20/wuhan-coronavirus-therapies-scientific-background/

  3. Bill In Oz says:

    Thanks EM for this post. This simple clear statement of the facts was something I needed here in Oz as JoNova blog despite her efforts is now infested with comments denying the facts, denying the science & denying the significance; in complete ‘mental lockdown’. ( Unfortunately WUWT is also infested with such commentators as well. )

    It is such a pity that Larry Ledwick is no longer with us. It was he who started ringing the alarm bells on this new disease back in late January. he saw right at the start the implications for the future across the planet.

  4. E.M.Smith says:

    @Bruce Ryan:

    It is 80% not 85%.
    The upper bound on them is NOT like a cold. It is more like “you are absolutely miserable for weeks, may have enough lung damage to be winded by brief fast walking after you recover, but you are not sick enough to need hospitalization.

  5. A C Osborn says:

    EM, this continuous comparison with the 4 flu viruses by many is very annoying.
    perhaps you could provide an answer for one question.
    They keep quoting Flu stats, how the hell do they know how many actual flu cases there are, how many actual flu tests do they do?

  6. E.M.Smith says:

    There can’t be any real count. At best, it is a statistical estimate for those not hospitalized nor seeking medical help. Those who are seen have a diagnosis and that codes flu and can be counted via providers or payers (insurance).

  7. Compu Gator says:

    Fla. Gov. Ron DeSantis has issued 2 executive orders today applying to the entire state:

    • Prohibited elective surgery, including nonemergency dental surgery. The rationale is avoiding nonemergency use not only of hospital facilities but also of hospital resources. Notably personal protective equipment (PPE) that would be required for medical/dental staff to use for nonemergency patients. Beware that much of the available PPE (e.g., masks) might be required to be discarded after use for each patient; such use is exaggerated on floor rounds by staff, thus being consumed at a rate that’s potentially scary to people aware of how scarce important PPE is now. State of Florida is expecting staged delivery of 3 million masks by the 1st week of April, all intended for distribution to medical/dental staff.

    • Prohibited dining in restaurants, altho’ call-in, drive-up, and take-out orders are still allowed. So it seems to me that businesses already set up for a high percentage of call-in (including Internet) orders (e.g., pizza) will survive fairly well.

    Meanwhile, the Publix supermarket chain has established seniors-only hours for shopping, on Tue. & Wed. Alas, both are theit door-opening hour 7–8 a.m. But applying logic, I suppose each was chosen as the hour when their stores are most freshly restocked from overnight.

  8. ossqss says:

    Active cases for sever/critical has now dropped to 4% globally on WOM. CFR is now up to 11% in the closed cases category.

    Saw that amazon is hiring 100k, Walmart 150k, and Domino’s pizza 10k. Everybody else is laying folks off. We live in interesting times.

    Those German stats are quite interesting EM. Albeit, they don’t have many closed cases out of the total to date. But 2 serious/critical out of nearly 20k indicates a little somethin somethin goin on.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

  9. Tom says:

    Azithromycin interferes with messenger RNA in bacterial reproduction. Perhaps also a similar action against viral RNA replication? This antibiotic is used in combination with hydroxychloroquine by the French doctors.

  10. Annie says:

    In addition to the anti-malarials mega doses of vitamin C (intravenous if possible) kills the virus.

  11. ossqss says:

    Interesting, just heard, for the first time, on the Ingram show, someone who referenced the Cytokine storm. We all learned specifics about that a good 2 months ago. So, what this fellow is conveying is the response of our immune system creates the storm and is what is doing the much of the dirty work in a bad case. My obvious question would be……… Do I want a weaker response?

    I wonder what would happen globally, right now, if the net went out? Ya know, solar storm or something much more sinister. Doh!

    Then there is this accurate message :-)

    Then this Euro forecast! Wait, what did that say?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETg-NnQWsAc71p0?format=png&name=medium

  12. Another Ian says:

    The internet never forgets

    “Fauci Love Letter to Hillary Clinton Surfaces….”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/03/20/fauci-love-letter-to-hillary-clinton-surfaces/

  13. E.M.Smith says:

    Robert Murry-Smith hasa members only video where he paints copper particles, chemically created, onto a face mask.

    Seems copper not only kills bacteria, but deactives viruses…

  14. Power Grab says:

    A coworker came in today and asked if I have a sewing machine at home.

    I said I do.

    She said that the local hospital has put out a call for home sewers to make masks out of 4 layers of cotton fabric. Straps can be elastic or strips of fabric. Hmmmm…I might have to switch from knitting to sewing this weekend.

    There was a story this week about a centenarian lady who is recovering from Covid-19. She said her mom sewed masks back in the days of the 1918 Spanish Flu.

    Last week we held just one church service, instead of the regular full schedule of Sunday activities. We had about 40% of a regular crowd. The most elderly members stayed home. Some other folks who had been members (and moved their membership elsewhere) came back last Sunday, I assume because their other church had cancelled services.

    Our pastor said that until they shut down the casinos, he would hold church. Well, this week I saw that casinos are shutting down. So just the music team and pastoral folks will be in the building this Sunday. We have a big platform, so it’s really easy to put lots of space between us. In fact, the platform is so large that, last week, my grand piano and I were not even in the picture on Facebook Live!

    Yesterday my kid said that they were having their work hours cut back from 8 to 7 hours a day. (It could be worse!)

    Our Walmarts are closing at 8:30 p.m. I had read they were going to open at 7:00 and close at 10:30, (almost like “7-11”, don’cha know?)…but they changed their mind. I wonder if they are laying off all those people that used to keep the stores open 24/7?

    And here’s my last random comment: I understand some are using their Christmas lights again. It helps raise the spirits. :-)

  15. Geoff Cruickshank says:

    @bill in oz
    Congratulations on your own good work on jonova site. I think she’s finally turned the tide. Some of the other sites around the world have been pandering to the political bias of their lowest common denominator readership in my view. Always a mistake to approach scientific questions with your political blinkers on I think. In fact, it was the increase in pandering to that which led me to become a long time lurker here, (plus EM’s obsession with stoves) in preference to other sites. I don’t mind a straight political analysis thread, which EM does plenty of, but mixing up politics with science in order to get hundreds of low value comments gives me the irrits.

  16. Another Ian says:

    Geoff C

    You mean the Jimmy Brits?

    Obviously they don’t practice rhyming slang in Georgia

    https://www.jimmybrittchevrolet.com/

  17. Geoff Cruickshank says:

    Irritation :)

  18. Joel Heinrich says:

    you can find more detailed information from germany here:
    https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-03-20-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
    there is no information available on recovered or serious cases. those 2 serious cases have been there for weeks…

  19. David A says:

    BTW, noticed one more fatality from the Diamond Princess. Still 14 in serious critical.

  20. M Simon says:

    This site – once a favorite of mine is full of idiots.

    STUNNING!… Via the CDC… As of Friday There Are 100 TIMES AS MANY Flu Deaths in US this Season than Coronavirus Deaths
    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/stunning-via-the-cdc-as-of-friday-there-are-100-times-as-many-flu-deaths-in-us-this-season-than-coronavirus-deaths/

    They also have articles that claim the death rate is being exaggerated for political effect. According to their math the death rate is only 1% not the 4% being reported. That is still 10X the flu.

  21. M Simon says:

    Another Ian says:
    21 March 2020 at 3:48 am

    Dr. Fauci seems pretty honest in his medical observations despite supporting Hilary.

    We are still suffering from a lack of test completions. Although in Illinois Abbott Labs may be turning the corner. Germany is selling tests all over the world.

    Sanjay Gupta in a rerun on Colbert (from a week ago) said it was a disgrace.

    It makes contact tracing difficult. .

  22. Henry Galt says:

    Some stuff I found and some ramblings I make …

    Stress drastically lowers your immune response.
    Panic induces fear and a magnification of your self awareness of ‘problems’ with your ‘health’. Run.
    Run to the hospital for a checkup. Go Now.
    (I understand about fear leading to self delusion also – it’s not just where I am right now honest gov’ner)

    1st.

    Wolfgang Wodarg has come up against what we climate realists have known for decades (video follows wiki pasta below)

    Wolfgang Wodarg is a German physician and politician for SPD.

    As chairman of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe Health Committee Wodarg co-signed a proposed resolution on December 18, 2009, which was briefly discussed in January 2010 in an emergency debate and he has called for an inquiry into alleged undue influence exerted by pharmaceutical companies on the World Health Organization’s global H1N1 flu campaign.

    His comments on the COVID 19 pandemic caused criticism from German scientists. Various German media examined Wodarg’s claims for accuracy and concluded that his statements would largely contradict the verifiable facts, some statements were neither refutable nor verifiable, but on closer examination proved to be insightful.

    2nd.

    An Italian report:

    Click to access Report-COVID-2019_17_marzo-v2.pdf

    With some outside conclusions, circular references(I know lol) and translated quotes:

    https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR06Ny7C5cC-sGQm68ENHLFP2M3D4d3LaQye-9x-HzbSJs6kTMq5kSM2rJM

    Age and smog.

    “Northern Italy has one of the oldest populations and the worst air quality in Europe, which has already led to an increased number of respiratory diseases and deaths in the past and is likely an additional risk factor in the current epidemic.

    South Korea, for instance, has experienced a much milder course than Italy and has already passed the peak of the epidemic. In South Korea, only about 70 deaths with a positive test result have been reported so far. As in Italy, those affected were mostly high-risk patients.

    The approximately twelve test-positive Swiss deaths so far were also high-risk patients with chronic diseases, an average age of 80 years and a maximum age of 90 years, whose exact cause of death, i.e. from the virus or from their per-existing diseases, is not yet known.

    Furthermore, according to a first Chinese study, the internationally used virus test kits may give a false positive result in some cases. In these cases, the persons may not have contracted the new coronavirus, but presumably one of the many existing human corona viruses that are part of the annual (and currently ongoing) common cold and flu epidemics.”

    Test kits absolutely not fit for purpose:

    “The decisive factor in assessing the danger of the disease is therefore not the number of test-positive persons and deceased, which is often mentioned in the media, but the number of people actually and unexpectedly developing or dying from pneumonia (so-called excess mortality). So far, this value remains very low in most countries.”

    Panic:

    “A hospital doctor in the Spanish city of Malaga writes on Twitter that people are currently more likely to die from panic and systemic collapse than from the virus. The hospital is being overrun by people with colds, flu and possibly Covid19 and doctors have lost control.”

    3rd.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31607599?fbclid=IwAR1M0cNbSNpsOJWNyIxKmf_1wEixDtLu3Yjmk8YfnPErIE0OrihX18i5rtQ

    “… Vaccine derived virus interference was significantly associated with coronavirus …”

    I will also have one eye on these-

    https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html?fbclid=IwAR0XBflqpLyA0h8xEl6XfisCLF1_-ylscyOuk1fHv4eVkAAFrhn53vNF6HI

    and

    https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

    I would love to see why some respiratory illnesses have plunged over the same timeframe.

    Selenium deficient soils – No anti-malarials vis-a-vis Roy Spencer on WUWT – D3 orders of magnitude too low, etc.

    Sorry for making you fish this out of the spamfilters Ed.

  23. E.M.Smith says:

    @M.Simon:

    Perhsps they could get it via an appeal to authority on death tates?

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S147330992030195X

    The Lancet Infectious Diseases
    Available online 12 March 2020
    In Press, Corrected ProofWhat are Corrected Proof articles?
    Journal home page for The Lancet Infectious Diseases
    Correspondence
    Real estimates of mortality following COVID-19 infection

    We re-estimated mortality rates by dividing the number of deaths on a given day by the number of patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection 14 days before. On this basis, using WHO data on the cumulative number of deaths to March 1, 2020, mortality rates would be 5·6% (95% CI 5·4–5·8) for China and 15·2% (12·5–17·9) outside of China. Global mortality rates over time using a 14-day delay estimate are shown in the figure, with a curve that levels off to a rate of 5·7% (5·5–5·9), converging with the current WHO estimates. Estimates will increase if a longer delay between onset of illness and death is considered. A recent time-delay adjusted estimation indicates that mortality rate of COVID-19 could be as high as 20% in Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak.6 These findings show that the current figures might underestimate the potential threat of COVID-19 in symptomatic patients.

    While the number of unknown mild cases will make that lower, the number of sick who have not recovered, some of whom will still die, makes it bigger. In any case, the symptomatic death rate is quite high. Then, the contagion on the Diamond Princess cruise ship shows at least 20% get it. Note that of them, despite being relatively early in the outbreak, of the 712 infected, with 567 “recovered”: there are STILL 137 sick and 15 in ICU. That is 19% sick this whole time and 2% still in ICU, most of whom are likely to die (unless treatment methods improve). The quarantine started 4 February, so this is 6 1/2 weeks later. A long time to be sick.

  24. David A says:

    Regarding flu statistics. At about 33 million cases a year, that is one flu every 10 years for each American. That appears reasonable from a personal perspective.

    There may be some valid criticisms of the number, but to ignore Cov19 and the very rapidly overwhelmed hospitals is stubborn foolishness.

    To ignore that under Simi quarantine, in only a few weeks, more then 20 percent were infected on the Diamond Princess, and in less then 3 weeks, some 80 percent of about 1100 members of a single denomination of that Church cult in South Korea became infected.

    South Korea and the Diamond Princess are proof that travel bans and strong quarantines work. ( Hospitals were just beginning to be overrun in South Korea.)

    Italy is proof that if such defensive protocols are administered late, then hospitals will be completely over-run, but consider the most obvious result if Italy was still treatiing this like a common flu. It is likely that whatever the real numbers, case load and serious critical would be at least double todays, and the exponential would not be rounding off. At that point all healthcare would effectively cease to functions and the already horrendous CFR would soar. People would not be forced to not work, witnessing the desparation and seeing the exploding trend, many would refuse to go to work. If not 80 percent of the nation would shortly be infected. Critical services beyond medical would begin to fail, from trash removal to utilities to food supplies, to banking. This would be the Spanish flu writ large, in a world with four times the people.

    Considering that Cov19 ran free ( zero defensive protocols, zero tests, zero quarantine, zero travel bans) far longer in China, over two months, then in South Korea or Italy, or anywhere else, and the stories of horror were far greater, then no thinking person can say this crisis is phony.

    The consequences to China are too great for any conspiracy ideas to make sense. Any open journalism ( and they told nightmare scenarios) was cut off and many Chinese journalists have vanished.

    China, by burying the true extent of this disease, is partial cause to the ROW having delayed response, and to the many who view this as just a flu.
    If they had let their journalists report openly, if they had let outside observers into their cities, their mortuaries, their elderly care facilities, their fusions and temporary incubation centers, their shut in high rise towers, then the ” just a flu crowd” would be tiny, and defensive protocols far stronger.

    Open question, would it be impossible to freeze all finance, all payments due, all interest accrued, all rent and mortgages, personal and private for the same duration as a lock down. Somehow stop all of wall street? A small business owner would have virtually no rent, no payrole, no increase in debt. The idea is to somehow make that time frame disappear, as though it never happened. ( Yes, of course 100 percent is not possible, but how far could it go? Food per person globally is what for a month, $100 per person?)

  25. David A says:

    Gosh I wish for an edit feature in WP.

  26. David A says:

    Cov19 2 China fibs

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back

    “The first case of someone in China suffering from Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus,
    can be traced back to November 17, according to government data seen by the South China Morning Post.

    Chinese authorities have so far identified at least 266 people who were infected last year, all of whom came under medical surveillance at some point.

    Some of the cases were likely backdated after health authorities had tested specimens taken from suspected patients.

    Interviews with whistle-blowers from the medical community suggest Chinese doctors only realised they were dealing with a new disease in late December.”

    So with a start date of November 17th 2019, the Corona Virus began its march through China.

    The first report of a test developed for this was January 20th 2020, this was more then two months of uninterrupted spread.

    https://www.technologynetworks.com/diagnostics/news/researchers-develop-first-diagnostic-test-for-novel-coronavirus-in-china-329537

    ————–
    Worldmeter for China says there were 224 cases on January 22 and 8 deaths by January 23rd. Worldometer starts China on January 22nd.

    Yet hospitals were overrun before January 20th, and Cov19 was running free for at least 65 days.

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047613/china-coronavirus-wuhan-residents-describe-doomsday-scenes

    By January 25th 12 other cities entered lock down.

  27. David A says:

    China’s 4 quarantines…

    1. Positively Infected
    2. Symptomatic. ( Flus colds and Cov19)
    3. Possibly exposed.
    4. Likely not exposed.

    2 and 3 are an incubation disaster, as they place mostly not infectious with the infectious, thus certain to excellerate the R-naught throughout the population.

    “Under the measures, individuals deemed to be high risk — either those with signs of the virus, or those who have come into close contact with confirmed cases — are removed from the population and placed into hundreds of temporary isolation centers set up across the city.”. ( Most with zero walls, common air, common restrooms)

    “Wuhan officials were replaced earlier this month amid seething public anger over the government’s alleged mishandling of the outbreak. They were replaced by two hardliners, parachuted in from outside the province, both with extensive backgrounds in law enforcement.

    Almost immediately after Wang Zhonglin’s arrival in Wuhan to replace the city’s party chief, quarantine measures were escalated.

    Wang, who rose through the ranks as a police officer, ordered a city-wide, three-day roundup of people possibly sickened with the coronavirus.”

    The Dragnet ended on Wed February 19th.

    Wang warned sternly that district party bosses and governors would be held responsible if any confirmed or suspected cases were found at home after the dragnet ended on Wednesday, the state-run Changjiang Daily reported Tuesday.

    The stringent searches are designed to corral all infected patients under self-quarantine into medical facilities for treatment. The move followed an online outcry over infected people who couldn’t get admitted into hospitals and were dying at home or infecting other family members.

    Confirmed patients with mild symptoms were put in the so-called Fangcang hospitals, stadiums and exhibition halls converted into makeshift hospitals where doctors and nurses perform basic medical care.

    As of Tuesday, more than 8,500 patients have been admitted into 12 Fangcang Hospitals across the city, according to state-run news agency Xinhua.

    Suspected cases, close contacts of confirmed cases and patients with fevers were put in temporary quarantine centers set up in requisitioned hotels and university dormitories.

    As of Wednesday, police in Wuhan have helped transfer more than 22,000 people from their homes to hospitals and quarantine centers, according to China’s Ministry of Public Security.

    More then 500 seperate quarantine centers, plus 20 major temporary.

    Conditions…
    “Conditions on the ground, however, appeared different. Bags of garbage, including unfinished meals and used masks, were piling up on the floor, and no medicine or treatment were provided to patients apart from daily temperature checks, according to Wang. “Here, two doctors are in charge of 200 patients,” she said.

    There was no central heating inside. Instead, heated blankets were provided to patients to keep them warm. Rows of portable toilets and shower rooms were located outdoors, in the biting cold. “The condition here is tough,” Wang said, adding that she did not dare to use the showers, fearing cross-infection.”


    The Fangcang Hospitals are only supposed to handle confirmed coronavirus patients with mild symptoms. However, Wang said she and fellow patients who said their test results were negative were taken to these facilities by mistake.

    “I think now (they are carrying out this) one size for all sweeping policy,” Wang said, referring to the government behest to “round up everyone who should be rounded up”. “They would rather wrong 10,000 people than miss that 100”

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/22/asia/china-coronavirus-roundup-intl-hnk/index.html

    20 mass quarantine centers for non tested symptomatic?
    https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/21/coronavirus-wuhan-quarantine-bought-world-time-to-prepare/

    South Korea by February 15th had 28 cases. By March 5th 19 days later they had 6,246 cases. January 20th was patient number one. So, from patient one Jan 20, to March 5th, 43 days later, South Korea had 12.25 doublings in 43 days, and unlike China, South Korea did active isolation of patients as they got iill and quarantines of possible contacts.

    Based on 65 days to January 23 China had a minimum of 18.5 doublings. Likely more with zero defensive protocols for most of that time. So that conservative number is 250 k infected. Based on 18 percent needing hospitals, 45,000 would be seeking hospitals. Most would be turned away.

  28. David A says:

    The title of that link, ” Quarratine bought world time to prepare” is a sick joke. China waited too long, hid the serious disaster, then let 4 million plus flee the city. They effectively hid the true nature of the virus and flooded the world with infected.

  29. H.R. says:

    Power Grab asks above: “I wonder if they are laying off all those people that used to keep the stores open 24/7?”

    Nope. They are beefing up or reassigning staff to restock at night. Walmart is looking to hire 10,000.

    There never was much general staff at night anyhow. Instead of a department manager and an assistant for each department during the day, there might be one night manager and an assistant covering 3 or 4 or 5 departments. Just try to get a fishing license at 2:30 am in a Walmart. It can be done, but it would be hard to locate someone to come to sporting goods and sell one to you.

    Here’s a link to a good explanation of why grocers will need more people and also what’s going with the food supply chain.

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/03/20/an-important-message-from-agriculture-secretary-sonny-perdue/

  30. jim2 says:

    @Henry Galt says: 21 March 2020 at 11:33 am

    If that is Wolfgang Wodarg in your first video, he is full of BS. During the Winter of 2018-2019, hospitals in China, Italy, and elsewhere were not overwhelmed with flu viruses or any other virus. But this past Winter and even now, that is the case. It would be obvious to a man blind in one eye and can’t see out of the other that there is something different going on. He is a nut job.

  31. RalphB says:

    While the vast majority of us will survive the virus, I am very worried about the economic shock that will be hitting soon after. Europe has a habit of starting wars after going through turmoil like this. Keep your larder stocked, Katie is getting ready to bar the door.

  32. ossqss says:

    CDC report released a couple days ago.

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm

  33. A C Osborn says:

    David A says: 21 March 2020 at 1:08 pm

    “China waited too long and hid the disaster.”

    And the UN WHO allowed them to, they are also guilty.

  34. A C Osborn says:

    ossqss says: 21 March 2020 at 3:13 pm
    CDC report released a couple days ago.
    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm

    And already way out of date, they are quoting 170,000 worldwide and it is already 290,000, I doubt it went up 120,000 in 2 days.
    They are either bloody clueless, lying or the number of cases really have almost doubled in 2 days.

  35. Gail Combs says:

    Interesting dig into WHO…

    Here’s Why WHO Chief Tedros Condones Chinese President Xi’s Lies and Corruption

    I am not going to try and summarize. And yes it is ‘Redstate’ but they do have a lot of quotes and stuff.

  36. Gail Combs says:

    A paper one of the guys found:

    High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19

    Abstract
    This paper investigates how air temperature and humidity influence the transmission of COVID-19. After estimating the serial interval of COVID-19 from 105 pairs of the virus carrier and the infected, we calculate the daily effective reproductive number, R, for each of all 100 Chinese cities with more than 40 cases. Using the daily R values from January 21 to 23, 2020 as proxies of non-intervened transmission intensity, we find, under a linear regression framework for 100 Chinese cities, high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19, respectively, even after controlling for population density and GDP per capita of cities. One degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower R by 0.0383 and 0.0224, respectively. This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19.
    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767

  37. Gail Combs says:

    “… Clearly Washington has got contagion under control, ….”

    Somewhere in passing I saw that Washington is using…

    AHHHhhh Found it:

    From one of the ladies:
    “I just learned that Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin are being used in the Seattle area now on patients.”

    From Daughn:
    “Chloroquine is currently open and able to be prescribed right now, no restrictions, and Zpacks are readily available, according to Congressman Mark Green, former Army Flight Surgeon.

    We know Hydroxychloroquine is a generic, “been on the market for over 50yrs, with a quality safety profile” according to Dr. Rigano and backed up by FDA Hahn above. AND………. we’re already using it.

    There are 6 million tablets coming to the USA, from Teva in Israel
    https://www.tevausa.com/news-and-media/press-releases/teva-to-donate-potential-covid-19-treatment-hydroxychloroquine-sulfate-tablets-to-hospitals-nationwide-/

    And another 3 million tablets from Bayer in Germany. “Resochin, made of chloroquine phosphate and an approved treatment for malaria, is being evaluated in China for its potential use against COVID-19, the disease caused by the fast-spreading coronavirus.” ” Bayer said the drug is currently not approved for use in the United States and the company is working with appropriate agencies on an emergency use authorization for its use in the United States.” https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-bayer-idUSKBN21637E

    Then, this announcement came in from Novartis and everyone took notice: 130 million doses!

    .
    .
    .
    We know Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine are malaria drugs. With 3 million Chloroquine tablets coming to the USA from Germany, 6 million Hydroxychloroquine tablets coming from Israel, 130 million donated from Novartis for worldwide use, …. Does anyone really think we are expecting a malaria outbreak in the USA? And would the President of the USA request such an emergency shipment, work 24/7 to gather that much material across the globe, for a potential malaria outbreak, when people are dying from COVID-19?

    No, of course not.

    All actions indicate the President and his team are trying to stop Americans (and the rest of the world) from dying and pulling every trigger they can find, slashing bureaucratic red tape, to do so. They need to get the media out of the way or the media needs to communicate clearly with the public….. and we sure as heck need to get the bureaucrats up to speed.

  38. Gail Combs says:

    One of the Ladies:
    “Per 700WLW news report, 12:30PM today:
    The Army Corps of Engineers will begin to build field tent hospitals in New York to cope with the influx of patients that they were told will happen.”

    You would think they could use intermodal containers unless they plan to burn the tents after.

  39. Another Ian says:

    Daily curve updates

    “Daily #Coronavirus #COVID-19 Data Graphs”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/21/daily-coronavirus-covid-19-data-graphs/

  40. Another Ian says:

    Re Gail C

    Jo Nova had an item on the connection of the head of WHO and the selling of China’s “belt and road” IIRC. I’ll see if I can find it

    Found it

    http://joannenova.com.au/2020/02/stinks-slow-wmo-let-coronavirus-run-but-ethiopian-chief-was-part-of-chinas-debt-trap-diplomacy/

  41. pouncer says:

    I am tired of the fuss over “testing”. I have a completely different understanding of what tests are for, I guess.

    IFF a specific disease responds to a specific treatment, then a test may benefit an individual. That is not the situation with Shy Knees Flew. Whether a given person has this flu, that flu, some other flu, or a virus inducing “flu like symptoms”, the general and non-specific treatment will be the same.

    Tests benefit some treatment centers. IFF certain resources are allocated to providers of care for THIS flu but not THAT flu, then the tests may help get resources. But that only matters if the resources in question have other, competing, uses. Masks, say, are just as useful and necessary for treating TB as flu. So it helps the clinic on the phone with the mask maker to say “I have test-confirmed cases of flu, here!”. It still doesn’t do much for the patient.

    Tests mostly benefit epidemiologists. Where is this flu coming from, who is near there, how many of them are in motion, which way are they going…. Now, if there were vast numbers of test kits and if the test was not expensive or itself damaging to health, then the epidemiologists would like to test EVERYBODY. Failing that, everybody in the vicinity of an outbreak. Maybe do like Gallup or Pew does with opinion polling and poll / test a few people each from locations from all over the county, in differing demographic groups, and use the samples to extrapolate the incidence and spread and rates etc. In such a scenario, the epidemiologists wouldn’t have to wait for people to develop symptoms. Test test test! Go for it. Tests have important uses in public health.

    Not so much in clinical care.

    But when I hear on the radio — NPR this morning — a person grabbing the microphone to whine about how awful they feel and how they’ve been in the hospital for DAYS and still “can’t get tested” (implicitly, because some politician somewhere fails to believe, care, or understand) I wonder what would change for that (im)patient if a test were administered and the result positive. I mean, I hope your flu (Shy Knees, Swine, Spanish, or otherwise) is keeping your family and friends in self-imposed isolation, regardless. I hope you’re getting hydration, chicken soup, and help with a bedban. I hope you get well as soon as possible. But would you kindly SHUT UP about tests?

    It’s as if the media is promoting the underlying, unspoken, axiomatic belief that the TEST leads right away to the CURE. “I have the SICK of the right now! Gimme the PILL of the right now, NOW!” But that’s not happening.

    IFF the quinine stuff or something similar starts to look workable we could find ourselves in an odd situation where the “Pill” of the right now is cheaper than the day’s latest test. Trying to culture a virus to stain a slide to be read by a professional with high powered video gear — versus giving a patient with a fever and sore throat a tonic water. Hmmm. It might depend on the rate of false negatives, etc, in the test. It might depend on the stockpiles of the pill But I can easily imagine the whole fuss over testing going away as rapidly as it came on. Can’t we get there faster?

  42. E.M.Smith says:

    Gail:

    We, the USA, are slowly converting our field hospitals to container based.

    As with all things Reserves, the retired kit, along with the retired folks, move to The Guard reserves. This makes a LOT of sense as that is the kit they all trained on and know how to set up, use, and maintain. An F-14 pilot can’t just jump in an F-22 and fly it. Similarly, truck full of tents can’t just strap on a container instead, and the guy who set up tents for 4 years has not trained on container set up.

    So The Guard will mostly be running tent based while the Army has the newer container based.

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/03/15/instant-hospitals/

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combat_support_hospital
    Facility
    The size of a combat support hospital is not limited, since tents can be chained together; it will typically deploy with between 44 and 248 hospital beds, with 44 beds being most common (ATP 4.02-5 Casualty Care, May 2013) For patient care the CSH is climate-controlled, and has pharmacy, laboratory, X-Ray (often including a CT Scanner) and dental capabilities (ATP 4-02.5 Casualty Care, May 2013). It provides its own power from generators.

    The great operational advantage of the deployable medical systems (DEPMEDS) facility is the use of single or double expanding ISO containers or units to create hard-sided, air conditioned, sterile operating rooms and intensive care facilities, which can produce surgical outcomes similar to that seen in fixed facility hospitals, and do so in an austere environment.

    So CSH for tents, DEPMEDS for containers with auxiliary tents:

    https://olive-drab.com/gallery/description_0163.php

    Deployable Medical Systems (DEPMEDS) was developed in the early 1980s to standardize a system of Combat Support Hospitals. DEPMEDS hospitals are assembled from standard functional modules. Critical modules are housed in rigid aluminum ISO-standard shelters, including laboratory, radiology, pharmacy, sterilization departmetns and operating rooms. Auxiliary functions are housed in TEMPER units (Tent, Expandable, Modular, Personnel) as well as vans.

    CP DEPMEDS (Chemically Protected Deployable Medical Systems) is a containerized set that provides Army DEPMEDS Combat Support Hospitals with a capability to sustain operations in an NBC environment (Nuclear, Biological, Chemical).

  43. ossqss says:

    @AC, the latest date in the CDC document references the 16th. It was released on the 18th. The numbers they use also generally match that date. So we have basically added 130,000 cases in those 4-5 days, timezone dependent.

  44. Gail Combs says:

    Thanks for the explanation on the tents & such EM. Makes plenty of sense.

    Another Ian, thanks to the Jo Nova link. I will pass that on. She always has great info.

    Tracy Beanz WHY ITALY?
    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1241114982739333124.html

    Tracy does good ‘dig heres’

  45. Gail Combs says:

    Well, this one is certainly interesting….

  46. E.M.Smith says:

    @Gail:

    That’s just an incredible “Get woke, go broke,” except it broke a whole country.

    A lethal disease outbreak, a flood of returning Chinese, many with virus: so that Political Idiot pushed “Hug A Chinese Day” for PC talking points. Just OMG stupid. Open Borders mixed with illegal immigrants salted with PC Dogma is a demonstrably lethal combination.

  47. p.g.sharrow says:

    One of the early stories that I read was that the Wuhan research facility was working on a SARS inoculation by modifying the Corona virus when a bit of their experiment escaped by some means.

  48. Another Ian says:

    FYI

    Pam Ayres is good value (IMO)

  49. E.M.Smith says:

    Well this isn’t good. Almost 5k dead, 793 added in one day, Italy. Out of ICU Beds.

    USA ADDED 7k+ today. Guess we’re finally testing…

    Italy	53,578	+6,557	4,825	+793	6,072	42,681	2,857	886
    USA	26,687	+7,304	340	+84	176	26,171	64	81
    Spain	25,496	+3,925	1,378	+285	2,125	21,993	1,612	545
    Germany	22,364	+2,516	84	+16	209	22,071	2	267
    Iran	20,610	+966	1,556	+123	7,635	11,419		245
    France	14,459	+1,847	562	+112	1,587	12,310	1,525	222
    

    At these rates, it is about a week to 6 figures.

  50. E.M.Smith says:

    Sorted by new cases:

    New York looks a mess. Spring Break looks to have whacked Florida and Louisiana. California early lock downs paying off.

    New York	12,699	+2,327	75	+19		12,624
    Louisiana	763	+178	20	+4		743
    Florida    	763	+104	13	+1		750
    Texas     	545	+72	5		9	531
    Connecticut	223	+29	4			219
    California	1,418	+27	26	+2	6	1,386
    Kentucky	87	+23	3	+1	2	82
    District of Columbia	98	+21	3			95
    
  51. E.M.Smith says:

    Looks like the UK is starting to catch clue.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11180811/coronavirus-elderly-12weeks-isolation/

    MILLIONS of people have to be “shielded” at home for 12 weeks to keep them safe from coronavirus.

    In the first of what will now be daily press conferences, the Prime Minister said the “most vulnerable” must stay home from this weekend for up to four months to stop them getting the virus.

    So old, pregnant, infirm, all to spend nearly 3 months in lock down.

    My prep for a couple of month+ is starting to look very reasonable with hints of “maybe a bit light” around the edges.

  52. p.g.sharrow says:

    @EMSmith; There is no such thing is being too prepared! Murphy’s law; If something can go wrong it will and at the worst time, no matter what the odds against it happening are. Be prepared! Enjoy this “vacation” as there is not much choice in the matter. At least we have lots of friends to visit with. 8-)…pg

  53. E.M.Smith says:

    I’ve never felt too prepared… no matter what my spouse said :-)

  54. ossqss says:

    If you feel too prepared, your not. Just sayin, think about it. :-)

    How do you prepare for what we currently have better? Let alone what could happen. Whoda thunk?

    Ya think those wealthy “WOKE”, who opposed self protection and the USA in general, may have a different feeling about the 2nd amendment about now?

    Security staff! Where Yat?

  55. H.R. says:

    Consider the difference between California and New York metro area (I’m assuming New York State, which is actually quite rural is not contributing much to the count).

    California’s population is spread out. There isn’t much high-rise living because of quakes. The area of the greater L.A. metropolitan area is huge compared to New York metro. sprawl doesn’t even begin to describe it.

    People in California drive their own cars from their single, or duplex, or small walkup apartments to work and back again. No shared elevators, cabs, heavily-used subway or bus system to speak of compared to New York.

    New York’s population shares contact with everybody else just in the transport sector alone, let alone crowded pedestrian traffic on the sidewalks and in the parks. And elevators! Buttons pushed and the same air shared inside a little box.

    New York was destined to be hardest hit just because multiple people must much touch or ride in the same things as many others must use and it is a city of entry for people from all over the globe.

  56. ossqss says:

    Just peeked at the new figures for the US from WOM on a new day. Not surprisingly, and not desired and I hope it is wrong, we see almost 3,000 new cases at the beginning of reporting today. Unless there is a mistake, reporting is catching up to the mass testing velocity in the US. Insert whatever expletive you want here. We are now in 3rd place on the global list if correct and gaining fast.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

  57. E.M.Smith says:

    @H.R.:

    L.A. has a metro now, and highrise downtown to sone extent. San Francisco more so. In fact, San Francisco reminds me of a miniature NYC.

    I think the initial New York outbreak was in New Rochelle, a very rich area of widely separated big homes. IMHO, the initial dynamics had this starting where there was a lot of Chinese business connections. Then the local context kicks in. Highly Connected NYC Lawyer met with many folks who met with many folks, who connected to subway riders etc.. California folks had Silicon Valley (Santa Clara where I am) as the hot spot. Had it been San Francisco, a very different dynamic. We’re as you described. Car commuters, lowrise offices mostly. Folks spread to family and direct coworkers. Generally easy contact tracing. For the L.A. cases, it looks like suburbs in the basin more than the downtown area.

    IMHO, had it started in the downtowns of S.F. & L.A., we’d be in the soup far worse.

  58. Sera says:

    And the side effects…

    https://www.drugs.com/sfx/chloroquine-side-effects.html

    So I’m not taking it unless needed.

  59. E.M.Smith says:

    @Ossqss:

    Clicking on the USA shows almost 2k of them in New York. While other spots could kick up, THE big problem is New York.

  60. E.M.Smith says:

    @Sera:

    Do realize, ANYTHING experienced by anyone gets listed as a side effect. Doesn’t matter if it is 1 in a million, or never repeated, or maybe caused because they ran up a flight of stairs.

    Reading the PDR (Physicians Desk Reference) is scary until that sinks in. Realize water would have to list dizziness, light headedness, feelings of suffocation, and death (among many others such as bladder distress and kidney pain)

  61. Ossqss says:

    @EM, regardless of locality, that number is significantly way way higher than anything else we have seen to date at this moment in the recording day. I suspect we may reach or exceed 10k today with such a head start. That will not bode well across the public perception venue.

    Just sayin,,,

  62. David A says:

    Pounced says, ” I wonder what would change for that (im)patient if a test were administered and the result positive. ”

    Well for one you may want to then have your family – and or friends or anyone close to you also tested so that they do not spread this further.

    Beyond that, the pathology of this is different then most flus and treatments do adjust accordingly.

    And if course everyone else once those in close contact with this person tested. South Korea apparently did very well in this regard.

  63. Ossqss says:

    Dangit, I closed my comment before posting.

    Let me try again.

    With respect to side effects of chloroquine.

    That is a reallllly long list, some of which I no longer experience after fantasy football season.

    Those eliminated would be.

    -Confusion
    -continuing ringing or buzzing or other unexplained noise in the ears
    cough
    -drooling
    -feeling that others are watching you or controlling your behavior
    -feeling that others can hear your thoughts
    -feeling, seeing, or hearing things that are not there
    -inability to move the eyes
    -large, hive-like swelling on the face, eyelids, lips, tongue, throat, hands, legs, feet, or sex organs

    The rest, probably still in place ;-)

  64. M Simon says:

    H.R. says:
    22 March 2020 at 4:02 am

    My daughter left NYC for New Mexico about 9 months ago. We wondered why and also wondered how she could find work.

    Today? We couldn’t be more pleased. She has a place to live and a job. And is out in the “country”. A year or two of that and she might start thinking Republican. Or at least less Democrat.

  65. David A says:

    I really recommend this you tube.
    Dr Cottrell has a way of talking that communicates well to layman,generally a good sign that he actually knows what he’s talking about. Listen all the way for some specific advice, as there was some new thoughts on medical items you may want to have on hand.

    Oh, M Simon, he sneaks in some classic liberal thoughts in a way your daughter may be a bit more open to hearing.

  66. Another Ian says:

    The hurtful truth

  67. jim2 says:

    @David A says: 22 March 2020 at 6:36 am

    Naw. This will be over sooner than a lot of people think. It is getting warm and the malaria drugs will work. If we can prevent death and hospital over-run, it’s back to normal. But hopefully, some of the idiots in charge have learned a useful lesson about China.

  68. jim2 says:

    On the topic of side effects, the MSDS for beach sand says it causes cancer. I’m wondering why it isn’t banned in Cali, and I’m curious if beaches have the Prop 65 warning ;)

    https://fscimage.fishersci.com/msds/09890.htm

  69. Quail says:

    Decisions need to be made fast. For California we have very little time left to change these curves.

    This interactive map details each state’s future depending on what they choose to do. Nothing, Social distancing, Wuhan style…

    https://covidactnow.org/

    “Here are the questions we built this tool to answer:

    What will the impact be in my region be and when can I expect it?
    How long until my hospital system is under severe pressure?
    What are my menu of interventions, and how will they address the spread of Coronavirus?”

  70. David A says:

    Jim2, hope you are right. In the video he holds out exactly that hope of a treatment. Yet his observations of pandemics coming in waves, and discussion of the strong indications of bio-enginering are well expressed and convincing.

  71. jim2 says:

    So we had the 1918 flu pandemic. Where were the “waves” from that one? No David, he is full of BS. There’s no need to get down in the weeds when you can see the truth from 30,000 feet.

  72. Ossqss says:

    US at 14k new cases with a lot of day left. Most in NY. CFR is near 70% WT*?

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    Globally the CFR has ticked up to 13% in closed cases.

  73. E.M.Smith says:

    Spanish Flu did come in waves, 2 of them IIRC. Backed off for summer, then returned in force. This graph shows 3 waves, a smaller echo after the big second one:

  74. jim2 says:

    There are benefits to selective and thoughtful outsourcing.

    After this, I think we should slowly shut down any such arrangements with any communist country and eventually make it illegal to do business with Communists with very few exceptions. Is this anti-free market? Yes it is to an extent. The blind and thoughtless application of free market principles to trade with communists will result in our eventual demise. No free market principle is worth that outcome.

    Instead, we should focus on Middle and South America. Utilize the CIA to gather intelligence and sow disruption to dictatorial governments. Send in the SEALS to remove support for them; destroy their weapons, supply chain, financing sources, and kill/capture key supporters. Once we get control, kick out any communist foreigners. Then offer incentives in the form of outsourcing and build democracy close to home. It should work better here than in the ME, better logistics and influence. We might even legalize all drugs to lower the corruption levels in those countries and maybe apply the SEALS to that problem also.

  75. jim2 says:

    CIO – the flu is still with us, it just isn’t disruptive. So, yes there are still waves, but not pandemic waves.

  76. E.M.Smith says:

    Looks like the USA is now in 3rd place. Many more countries in the thousands, and too many with 5 Figures… The USA is still sparse enough outside New York for lockdown, testing, & contract tracing to stop it (if only we were doing enough of that). What to do about New York? Donno…

    Europe is a mess and not likely to get better given half assed lockdowns, IMHO.

    China	81,054	+46	3,261	+6	72,440	5,353	1,845	56
    Italy	53,578		4,825		6,072	42,681	2,857	886
    USA	29,214	+5,007	349	+47	178	28,687	708	88
    Spain	28,603	+3,107	1,756	+375	2,125	24,722	1,785	612
    Germany	23,974	+1,610	93	+9	266	23,615	2	286
    Iran	21,638	+1,028	1,685	+129	7,635	12,318		258
    France	14,459		562		1,587	12,310	1,525	222
    S.Korea	8,897	+98	104	+2	2,909	5,884	59	174
    Switzer	7,230	+367	85	+5	131	7,014	141	835
    UK	5,018		244	+11	93	4,681	20	74
    Nether.	4,204	+573	179	+43	2	4,023	354	245
    Belgium	3,401	+586	75	+8	263	3,063	288	293
    Austria	3,302	+310	16	+8	9	3,277	15	367
    Norway	2,256	+92	7		6	2,243	28	416
    Sweden	1,931	+161	21	+1	16	1,894	68	191
    Portugl	1,600	+320	14	+2	5	1,581	26	157
    Denmark	1,395	+69	13		1	1,381	42	241
    Canada	1,385	+57	20	+1	14	1,351	1	37
    Austrla	1,353	+281	7		46	1,300	2	53
    Malaysa	1,306	+123	10	+2	139	1,157	26	40
    Brazil	1,209	+31	18		2	1,189	18	6
    Japan	1,086	+32	36		235	815	57	9
    Czechia	1,047	+52			6	1,041	19	98
    Turkey	947		21			926		11
    Israel	945	+62	1		37	907	20	109
    Luxemb.	798	+128	8		6	784	3	1,275
    Ireland	785		3		5	777	13	159
    
  77. Concerned Virginian says:

    Good afternoon,jim2
    The Spanish Flu Pandemic occurred in three waves:
    Spring 1918
    Fall 1918
    Winter 1918 – Summer 1919
    It appears that the Spanish Flu was an H1N1 virus.
    http://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/three-waves.htm
    http://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/reconstruction-1918-virus.html

  78. jim2 says:

    More Information on Past Pandemics
    1918 Pandemic (H1N1 virus)
    1957-1958 Pandemic (H2N2 virus)
    1968 Pandemic (H3N2 virus)
    2009 H1N1 Pandemic (H1N1pdm09 virus)

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/basics/past-pandemics.html

  79. E.M.Smith says:

    @Jim2:

    Check the dates on that graph. It IS the Spanish flu pandemic, in 3 waves.

    It is from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

    “The Spanish flu, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic,[1] was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic. Lasting from January 1918 to December 1920, it infected 500 million people—about a quarter of the world’s population at the time.”

  80. cdquarles says:

    A thing or two to remember about influenza. It is a zoonotic virus and there are sporadic outbreaks, worldwide, throughout the year. It is only epidemic/pandemic, for the most part, in winter. Epidemic outbreaks are known to happen in spring and autumn.

  81. E.M.Smith says:

    New York is in a world of hurt, but many other States are only a few weeks behind if they don’t take strong and aggressive action NOW. You can also see the tight connection of New Jersey to New York. States with over 100 cases sorted by case count:

    New York	22,717	+12,345	114	+58		22,603
    New Jersey	1,917	+590	20	+4		1,897
    Washington	1,793		94		124	1,575
    California	1,550	+159	28	+4	6	1,516
    Louisiana	837	+252	20	+4		817
    Florida	        830	+171	13	+1		817
    Michigan	809	+22	8	+3		801
    Illinois    	753		6		2	745
    Georgia   	600	+45	23	+9		577
    Texas     	569	+96	5		11	553
    Massachusetts	529	+4	2	+1	1	526
    Pennsylvania	481	+90	4	+2		477
    Colorado	476		6	+1		470
    Tennessee	374	+3	1			373
    Wisconsin	322	+41	4		1	317
    North Carolina	322	+76				322
    Ohio        	250	+3	3			247
    Maryland	244	+54	3	+1	4	237
    Connecticut	223	+29	5	+1		218
    Virginia  	221	+69	3	+1	1	217
    Mississippi	207	+66	1			206
    Indiana   	202	+73	4	+1		198
    Nevada  	190	+29	2			188
    South Carolina	174	+1	3			171
    Minnesota	169	+31	1		24	144
    Arizona  	152	+44	2	+1	1	149
    Alabama      	138	+13				138
    Oregon   	137		4			133
    Utah       	136					136
    Arkansas	122	+4				122
    Dist Columbia	102	+25	3			99
    
  82. E.M.Smith says:

    USA has crossed over to 31k cases.

  83. jim2 says:

    This helps perspective …

  84. Ossqss says:

    Seems WOM altered their earlier numbers.

  85. E.M.Smith says:

    WOM seems to have been doing continuous updates for several days now. As soon as they get numbers from someone, they update. Then sometime in the afternoon PST they blank the incremental values.

  86. E.M.Smith says:

    Looks like the USA just blew through 32k…

    United States
    Coronavirus Cases:
    32,356
    ...
    New York	15,801	+5,429	114	+58		15,687
    New Jersey	1,914	+587	20	+4		1,894
    

    Cuomo just said that NY has recieved several thousands doses of Hydrochloroquine and will start using it Tuesday.

  87. E.M.Smith says:

    @Jim2:

    Your “perspective” graph hides the 3 waves, well documented, of Spansh flu by merging them into one peak. Averaging numbers hides things and it looks like the smoothed it.

  88. Another Ian says:

    Global pandemic preparedness rankings

    http://catallaxyfiles.com/2020/03/23/images/

  89. E.M.Smith says:

    Angela Merkle in quarantine after contact with Dr, that tested positiv for Covid-19.

  90. E.M.Smith says:

    Senator Rand Paul tests positive for Covid-19.

    Any bets he’ll be on Hydrochloroquine?

  91. Compu Gator says:

    H.R. [said] 22 March 2020 at 4:02 am [GMT] [*]:
    California’s population is spread out. There isn’t much high-rise living because of quakes. The area of the greater L.A. metropolitan area is huge compared to New York metro. sprawl doesn’t even begin to describe it.

    Earthquakes have little to do with presence or absence of high-rise living in California. The reason is the historically low cost of land out there; it was so cheap within living memory, that there was very rarely any need for architects & construction companies to incur the costs of building up.

    Elaboration is not relevant to CoV-19, so I’ve posted my historical sketch as a short essay in W.O.O.D., where other Californians, past or present, may wish to contest aspects of my analysis.[†]

    ——-
    Note *: <https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/03/20/20-march-2020-covid-19-usa-16000-cases-italy-4000-dead/#comment-127009>.

    Note †: <https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/02/27/w-o-o-d-27-february-2020/#comment-127080>.

  92. M Simon says:

    Quail says:
    22 March 2020 at 4:02 pm

    You have to subscribe to the newsletter to get access to the model.

  93. M Simon says:

    jim2 says:
    22 March 2020 at 6:15 pm

    The drug problem is government made.

    Drug Prohibition is socialism for criminals. Says Milton Friedman. Besides we learned that from Alcohol Prohibition.

    If drugs caused addiction Prohibition might make some sense. They don’t and it doesn’t.

    Dr. Lonny Shavelson found that 70% of female heroin addicts were sexually abused in childhood.

    Post USA Civil War alcoholism was called “the soldiers disease”

    Addiction is a symptom of PTSD. Says Nobel Prize Winner in Medicine Eric Kandel in his book, “The Disordered Mind.”

    People in chronic pain chronically take pain relievers.

    Pain killers are not addictive. Pain is addictive.

    Note: other than the relief of pain, opiates are very unpleasant drugs. They clog up the digestive system.

  94. M Simon says:

    jim2 says:
    22 March 2020 at 8:28 pm

    It would help perspective if we had something to look back on. We are at the beginning.

  95. Compu Gator says:

    The article that I’m citing in this posting is beyond “downer”, and into “downright frightening”; alas, having read it, it does seem credible:

    Coronavirus
    A Medical Worker Describes Terrifying Lung Failure From COVID-19 — Even in His Young Patients
    “It first struck me how different it was when I saw my first coronavirus patient go bad. I was like, Holy [manure], this is not the flu. Watching this relatively young guy, gasping for air, pink frothy secretions coming out of his tube.”
    by Lizzie Presser March 21, 5 a.m. EDT
    [….]
    [*]

    Posting as a potential member of the senior patient-with-preëxisting-condition demographic, I sure as [manure] wish someone here could credibly poke factual holes into it, or even discredit its source. I offer apologies to any readers whose day (or night) I’m ruining with this.

    ——-
    Note *: https://www.propublica.org/article/a-medical-worker-describes–terrifying-lung-failure-from-covid19-even-in-his-young-patients>.

  96. Compu Gator says:

    Bleeping effete artsy “web designer” used a Unicode en-dash (#2013 = &#8211), which broke the URL! Lemme try substituting the UCS-8 URL code for that character, thus:

    ——-
    Note *: https://www.propublica.org/article/a-medical-worker-describes%E2%99%A6terrifying-lung-failure-from-covid19-even-in-his-young-patients>.

  97. M Simon says:

    Compu Gator says:
    23 March 2020 at 4:18 am

    Why not just use the url in plain text. It is what I did.

  98. Another Ian says:

    “President Trump Tweets 15 Day Deadline To Restart U.S. Economy….
    Posted on March 23, 2020 by sundance

    Nancy Pelosi’s legislative stunt has revealed that the coronavirus panic is likely a well coordinated political stunt. If it were as real as claimed, Pelosi wouldn’t have the time to organize a political spending scheme…. ergo, it’s more likely a planned hoax to bring the economy to a standstill and create a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/03/23/president-trump-tweets-15-day-deadline-to-restart-u-s-economy/

  99. jim2 says:

    EMS and MS – The perspective shows the impact of technology on communicable diseases. Our tech now is a hulluva lot better than even that of a few years ago. Just sayin’.

  100. jim2 says:

    China’s ambassador to South Africa on Friday cheered former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for advancing the Chinese Communist Party’s official line about the coronavirus not being a “Chinese virus.”

    https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/21/chinese-ambassador-hillary-clinton-communist-propaganda/

  101. E.M.Smith says:

    @Compugator:

    The disease is that bad and does chew up the lungs in many patients,

    California land was not cheap (Dad sold real estate and I’ve got a half century of price awareness) and only relatively recently has high rise construction taken off with the advent of supposedly quake proof buildings. After the next Big One we will find out how right or wrong they were.

    Due to 3 and sometimes 4 crop cycles per year, California crop land has run multiples of $/acre of crop land in other States. Due to quality of life (weather, recreation, jobs) land for houses has cost a lot more too; but our historically high wage rates supported it. My Dad pointed this out to me in the ’60s as a realtor selling the stuff and with fliers of ranches for sale across the nation.

    Between low heating costs and high quake issues, the preferred style was the “California Ranch”. For businesses, the low rise.

    That was only slowly changed as folks forgot the prior quake damage and started to believe the assertions of quake proof buildings. Personally, I’d still not work in a high rise here nor own a 2 story house. I’ve been in a 7 quake…

    San Francisco dodged a catastrophe when Loma Prieta let loose 60+ miles south, instead of right under it and was a 7 instead of an 8 to 9. Even with that, the 2 and 3 story Marina structures collapsed while single story houses 50 miles closer to the center had little to no damage.

    WHEN the next 8+ hits the Bay Area or L.A. Basin, and a few high rises bite it, we will rediscover our history…

  102. Ossqss says:

    Here is a site for number crunchers.

    https://covidtracking.com/

  103. A C Osborn says:

    What I fail to understand is this illogical approach of trying to compare COVID19 with past flu outbreaks, especially the 1918 epidemic.
    Can someone explain how many of the following were available to patients and the medical profession in 1918.
    Ambulances with patient support facilities
    Intensive Care Beds
    Ventilators
    Oxygen
    Anti-Virals
    Anti-Bacterials (for treating side infections)
    Hazmat Suits
    Anti-septic sprays
    UV lights

    As to later flu epidemics, how many involved or required
    So many medical staff catching it & dying
    Total lockdowns

  104. cdquarles says:

    @ ACO,
    Partly because that is the last time a really bad viral pandemic happened with conditions existing that, in my mind, enhanced its spread. In more recent times, the last Ebola outbreak or the 1957-58 influenza fits the situation, somewhat.

    Today, we have airplanes in addition to other mass transportation, to enhance spread. On the other hand, we also have knowledge of how to limit spread (targeted quarantines, especially early on) and have means to combat the disease (anti-biologicals and life support). NB anti-biologicals encompass more than just antibiotics, which mean, mostly, antibacterial and anti-fungal agents.

  105. YMMV says:

    M Simon: “People in chronic pain chronically take pain relievers.
    Pain killers are not addictive. Pain is addictive.”

    in order: true; some are; never heard that one before and I have not found that to be the case.

    “Note: other than the relief of pain, opiates are very unpleasant drugs. They clog up the digestive system.”

    The street users don’t seem to think so, but it is true that opiates can cause constipation and other things.
    https://drugabuse.com/featured/the-effects-of-opiates-on-the-body/

  106. cdquarles says:

    State population: about 4.9 million. Tests done: about 1000. Number of cases: 157. Number of deaths: 0. Roughly half of the cases are Metro Birmingham. Almost all of the rest are in the next 4 largest metro areas. Of the remainder, nearly none in in the smallest counties, so far. Next update is this afternoon.

  107. cdquarles says:

    @YMMV, have you ever experienced serious or severe chronic pain? I have, though I could control it with means other than opiates, at the time. That said, I’ve seen people with awful chronic cancer pain on 100 mg of morphine per hour and still hurt.

  108. YMMV says:

    E.M.Smith: “Personally, I’d still not work in a high rise here nor own a 2 story house. I’ve been in a 7 quake…”

    A friend was in the SLC airport when the recent 5.7 earthquake hit. He said that had he not been by his car, he would not have been able to stand. Inside the terminal, a water pipe broke and chandeliers swung so hard they hit the ceiling. He never wants to go through something like that again.
    https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/uu60363602/shakemap/intensity

  109. YMMV says:

    @cdquarles, I am not saying that pain does not induce a strong or even overwhelming urge to fix it by any means necessary. But pain itself being addictive? I’m not buying it.

    I find it interesting that while you have strong pain, it’s about all you can think about, but once it is gone, it’s like you never had it. You remember that you had it, but it might as well have been someone else. You don’t “feel” that memory. Not like an addiction.

  110. Power Grab says:

    @ Compu Gator re:
    “Posting as a potential member of the senior patient-with-preëxisting-condition demographic, I sure as [manure] wish someone here could credibly poke factual holes into it, or even discredit its source. I offer apologies to any readers whose day (or night) I’m ruining with this.”

    The subject of young people with bad lungs reminds me of the damage vaping can do. That young man may have brought that complication into the situation.

  111. E.M.Smith says:

    Ontario, Canada announcing a closure of all non-essential businesses tomorrow.

    A JAMA video had lead M.D. from a Hospital in N.Y. saying they are getting some young patients in ICU. Also that many patients need ventilation in the prone position for weeks.

    I’d not be happy laying on my stomach with a tube down my throat for weeks…

  112. Another Ian says:

    We weren’t supposed to notice

    “Amazing How Much Change Can Occur in 24 Hours”

    Wasn’t it just 24 hours before this that the Democrat allies in the Media Party were criticizing Trump for talking about chloroquine and azithromycin?

    Wait a minute, yesterday I was told that talking about this was irresponsible and dangerous. https://t.co/WdaZCeXVrm

    — David Harsanyi (@davidharsanyi) March 22, 2020

    Perhaps the word went out from Governor Cuomo to tell them to give his infected citizens a chance to survive.”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/03/23/amazing-how-much-change-can-occur-in-24-hours/

  113. Another Ian says:

    Interesting 2007 paper cited here

    http://catallaxyfiles.com/2020/03/23/interesting/

  114. YMMV says:

    Tired of seeing images of the virus yet? This one at least has a new creative twist…

  115. Another Ian says:

    “MUST WATCH – Tom Cotton Outlines Nancy Pelosi Emergency Relief Scheme…”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/03/23/must-watch-tom-cotton-outlines-nancy-pelosi-emergency-relief-scheme/

  116. M Simon says:

    Another Ian says:
    23 March 2020 at 8:07 am

    A Planned hoax?

    China? Italy? too?

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