23 March 2020 Wuhan China Covid-19 Restarting Economy

Restarting The Economy, An Alternative

There was an article in a newspaper (Washington Post?, one of them anyway) proposing that the economic damage being done is worse than the disease it is to “cure”. That is a false choice.

The dichotomy presented is just that there are only two choices: Lock down everyone OR Let Disease Rip but restart the economy.

There’s a third choice: Segment the problem space and restart those areas that are free of disease.

There are some States with a very few cases. There are others, a handful, with “community spread”. Put a border between them. (Bear in mind that I’m inside one of the places to be “walled off” for a while…)

There are States with very few cases:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

West Virginia	16	+4				16	  
Wyoming 	26	+2				26	 
South Dakota	28	+7	1		6	21	 
North Dakota	30					30	 
Alaska  	32	+10				32	  
Montana 	34					34	 
Idaho 	47	+5				47	 
Nebraska	50	+8				50	 
Hawaii  	56					56	 

So first thing you do is put a National Guard unit at the border of each State. Traffic stops. Flights stop. Trains stop. This virus has not feet nor wings. To spread, it requires humans to move. Stop the moving.

In every State, you do a 2 week lockdown. Everyone stays at home.

During that time, the State Government does a survey of counties. Which counties have NO Covid-19. At the end of the 2 weeks, all those counties WITH cases, get the National Guard at their entrances and exits. All those counties with NO cases, rejoin with each other and restart commerce. It is my guess that would be most of the counties of the nation, mostly excluding some major metropolitan areas (New York City and suburbs, Seattle area, San Francisco to Silicon Valley) and some scattered areas along transit routes.

I’m pretty certain that the 788 cases in Texas will be in a small number of urban areas in highly urban counties; and that almost all the rural areas (and certainly the Desert West Texas outside of El Paso) can be cleared and back to work rapidly. Similarly the Mountain counties of California, like Alpine County population 1175 will have zero cases and checking that would take the County about a day. So why not do that, and tell those folks they are “free to move about the county”? Similarly all the other sparsely populated rural counties of the nation.

Covid-19 by area of USA

Covid-19 by area of USA

From: https://infection2020.com

Now you move to a finer grain repeat of the process inside the remaining areas. In the mean time, the rest of the Nation gets back to work AND you don’t have to Kill Granny and Gramps to do it…

Inside Silicon Valley / S.F., for example, you can again segment the bay area counties. While there are likely many cases in the “well connected” areas with Silicon Valley Elite who do a lot of business with China, I’d guess that the number of cases on the East Valley where the poorer Mexican population is large will be approximately zero. So you put a grid over the metro area, and segment neighborhoods. Those places that started the 2 weeks with no cases, and are still free of cases, get identified, and after providing another 2 weeks worth of supplies, told to chill for just 2 more weeks, then they, too, can return to the rest of the country.

As this process continues, you have an ever shrinking area of significant cases where you can concentrate you resources. Test whole neighborhoods. Give them a hydroxychloroqine treatment, whatever.

Most importantly, these folks are now able to be supported by the economic activity in the rest of the country.

There will inevitably be the odd ‘straggler’ case in some ‘cleared’ county. When that happens, the county again is put on isolation, 2 weeks home quarantine, contact tracing, etc. etc. Rinse and repeat.

Similarly, at a macro level, any other Country that can be shown disease free can get restored air travel and such as long as it agrees to block any travel to infected countries / areas. Anybody who is clearly not being effective is on the ‘no contact’ list.

The notion from the article that we just let the young ones go back to work and get / recover from the Chinese Wuhan Covid-19 Virus is daft. Two reasons:

1) Many of those younger folks WILL get severe disease. This isn’t a hard cut off at an age, it is a sloped line of probabilities. Many WILL need hospital care. We just don’t have enough hospital beds, even for that population. After infection, some will have damaged lungs such that they are winded after short walks. Some men end up sterile. You would have to set you age cut-off for “young” at about 20 to avoid that. Just not possible.

2) You are just accepting that the folks in the high risk group WILL eventually die, just a bit later. What will you do, keep them in a bubble the rest of their lives? Eventually they will come out, for a doctor visit or to get food; or the virus will find a way in. On objects, on staff with latent infection, from the mail carrier. Does it really do any good to move your killing Granny to 4 months from now? Or 6? Remember, your hospitals are STILL going to be crashed from the small percentage of younger folks with bad cases. We have about 100,000 ICU beds. 60,000 are used for other things. That’s 40,000 for bad cases. Take our 320,000,000 or so population, and assume only half are “young”, so 160 Million. Now assume only one in a thousand has a ‘bad case’ (it is more than that). Now you have 160,000 who need an ICU bed to not die. Congratulations, you just killed 120,000 younger folks. (You get to kill the roughly 16 Million older bad cases later when the old folks get let out into the sea of viruses…)

It just is NOT a good approach.

It will be a year before we know IF the vaccine that is being tested actually works, or kills people. Remember ADE Antibody Dependent Enhancement. This was demonstrated in the SARS-1 virus (that is very similar). Once vaccinated, on exposure to the actual disease, a MUCH WORSE case develops often leading to death. A “quicky restart” of the economy expecting a working vaccine on schedule is rolling very loaded dice that want to kill millions. Not a good idea.

We KNOW that isolating infected regions / cities / neighborhoods works.

Then, the other minor point. It is way too early to be talking about just letting the virus run and putting everyone back to work. We are “testing” in a drug trial a couple of drugs that were shown by French M.D.s to dramatically cut virus particles and clear patients in 6 to 7 days. It is published. Yes, the sample size was small (order of 50) but they did their homework and showed it. These drugs are in New York now (about 1/2 of all US cases) and start being used on Tuesday (tomorrow). We will know in a week how well this works. After that week, then is the time to ask questions about path forward. IF we really have a cure, and the clinical use so far says so (with potential for error), it is far preferable to treat all the cases, then test, identify, and eradicate in any asymptomatic folks in areas with community spread.

Status Today

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This list is sorted by new cases. The USA is now #1 in new cases. Italy still leads in total deaths. From 64k cases, 6k deaths. Now a 9.4% death rate, up from an 8.5% fatality 4 days ago. Their hospital system is in melt down, so that will continue to get worse. 50,418 are still hospitalized or in other treatment. 3204, in ICU of which, historically, over 80% die.

The USA, adding cases at double the rate in Italy, will likely pass them in total cases in a week. We still have time to avoid becoming another Italy with a broken medical system and staff. All it takes is the will to segment and isolate. To chill for a couple of weeks at home with the family.

Country  Total	New	Deaths	New	Recovrd	Active	Serious	Per1M Pop
USA	42,443	+8,897	517	+98	295	41,631	1,040	128
Italy	63,927	+4,789	6,077	+601	7,432	50,418	3,204	1,057
Spain	33,089	+4,321	2,207	+435	3,355	27,527	2,355	708
Germany	29,056	+4,183	118	+24	422	28,516	23	347
France	19,856	+3,838	860	+186	2,200	16,796	2,082	304
Iran	23,049	+1,411	1,812	+127	8,376	12,861		274
Switzerland	8,547	+1,073	118	+20	131	8,298	141	988
UK	6,650	+967	335	+54	135	6,180	20	98
Austria	4,468	+886	21	+5	9	4,438	14	496
Canada	2,049	+579	23	+3	320	1,706	1	54
Netherlands	4,749	+545	213	+34	2	4,534	435	277
Portugal	2,060	+460	23	+9	14	2,023	47	202
Israel	1,442	+371	1		41	1,400	29	167
Belgium	3,743	+342	88	+13	401	3,254	322	323
Turkey	1,529	+293	37	+7		1,492		18
Ireland	1,125	+219	6	+2	5	1,114	29	228
USA
State	        Total	New     Deaths	New     Recov'd	Active
New York	20,875	+5,085	157	+43	20,610	
New Jersey	2,844	+930	27	+7	2,817	
Louisiana	1,172	+335	34	+14	1,138	
Michigan	1,328	+293	15	+6	1,313	 
Illinois	1,285	+236	12	+3	1,271	 
Texas   	788	+190	9	+3	768	 
California	1,940	+185	38	+4	1,896	
Georgia 	772	+172	25	+2	747	 
Pennsylvania	644	+165	4	+1	640	 
Florida 	1,171	+164	14	+1	1,157	 
Massachusetts	777	+131	9	+4	767	
Tennessee	615	+110	2		613	 
Connecticut	327	+104	8	+3	319	 
South Carolina	299	+104	5	+2	294	 
Missouri	183	+93	3		180	
Ohio    	442	+91	6	+3	436	
Arizona 	234	+82	2		231	
North Carolina	348	+77			348	
Utah    	257	+76	1		256	
Minnesota	235	+66	1		210	
Indiana 	259	+58	7	+1	252	
Nevada  	245	+55	2		243	
Maryland	288	+44	3		281	
Mississippi	249	+42	1		248	
Wisconsin	416	+35	5	+1	410	
Virginia	254	+35	6	+3	247	
Oregon  	191	+30	5	+1	186	 
Rhode Island	106	+23			106	 
Vermont 	75	+23	5	+3	70	 
District Colum.	116	+18	2		114	
Maine   	107	+18			104	 
Kansas  	82	+18	2		80	 
Iowa    	105	+15			105	
Oklahoma	81	+14	2		78	
Delaware	68	+12			68	 
Alabama 	167	+10			167	 
Alaska  	32	+10			32	 
Arkansas	174	+9			174
Nebraska	50	+8			50	 
South Dakota	28	+7	1		21	 
Idaho   	47	+5			47	 
West Virginia	16	+4			16	 
Wyoming 	26	+2			26	 
Kentucky	104	+1	3		99	 
Washington	1,996		95		1,777	 
Colorado	591		7	+1	584	 
New Hampshire	78		1	+1	77	 
New Mexico	65				65	 
Hawaii  	56				56	 
Montana 	34				34	 
North Dakota	30				30	 
Diamond  Cruise	49				49	
Grand P. Cruise	30		1		29	

Prior postings in the category: Covid

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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105 Responses to 23 March 2020 Wuhan China Covid-19 Restarting Economy

  1. jim2 says:

    Public schools are going to on-line courses. No reason that can’t continue. A lot of people have been set up to work from home. No reason that can’t continue. That’s a big chunk of people.

  2. Alexander MCCLINTOCK says:

    Here is a UK doctor’s plea

  3. Brimricc says:

    New Orleans should have canceled Marci Gras. Looks like that made it really bad in the New Orleans area.

  4. billinoz says:

    E M Thanks for this post ! Informed plain sensible common sense approach.

    But is it based on real facts ? IE Is it based on ignorance of actual numbers in each state because of very little testing ? Or is it based on actual testing of a lot of people in each state ?

    I have read reports from epidemiologists who say that for each known infected person there are 10 to 20 unknown infected persons.

    The solution of course is test, test , test !

    I think the same approach should be taken here in Australia. There are officially almost 2000 confirmed infections now with over 800 in one state -NSW. And these people are mostly in the big city of Sydney….Most of the rest are in Melbourne & Brisbane…

    But not many people have been tested: only people who have travelled overseas with symptoms !and those who have had contact with folks who have travelled.

    the solution of course is the same here as in the USA, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong & Singapore : TEST TEST & TEST

    Once an area has been ‘cleared’ then life could start to become normal again as you suggest with borders to prevent reinfection.

  5. hillrj says:

    Based on the bad experience in southern Europe, it is clear that the Mediterranian diet is to blame:) Back to roast beef and boiled cabbage.

  6. ossqss says:

    Closed case CFR has now reached 14% on WOM. I ask, is it Italy? Seems we no longer get CFR stats, at least when I clicked the US on this site. Last look the CFR was 72%. Obviously that will come down. Just an ob.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

  7. E.M.Smith says:

    Unusual and unexpected drop of cell phone users in China. They call Covid-19 CCP Virus (for Chinese Communist Party). So does that drop indicate the real number of incapacitated sick and dead?

    They also cite reports that 30% of cases were asymptomatic carriers. Our USA government repeatedly saying not to test without symptoms assures no containment is posdible.

  8. Bill In Oz says:

    “They also cite reports that 30% of cases were asymptomatic carriers.”

    So universal testing is essential to get a handle on this disease. And lockdown to stop the spreading….Until as TdeF said on JoNova, here in Oz, this bit of chemistry is dead !

  9. Andrew P says:

    Ohio’s daily new case count dropped 13 over the day before. Too early to tell whether or not this is a trend, but for states with an entrenched community spread it’s seems to be on a lower trajectory. The OH governor was ahead of most in shutting things down. KY & IN seem to be following his lead within a day or two. Michigan our neighbor to the north, has three times the cases and is climbing.

  10. Simon Derricutt says:

    EM – seems a logical approach to the problem, but it’s an engineer’s response and has some political incorrectness built-in. I think the politicians won’t be able to mention the ethnicity of the areas that are either locked-down or allowed freedom (even though they do talk about the “black vote”, “Hispanic vote”, etc.).

    Since the wealth-producing sections of the system are shut down as “non-essential”, there’s a limited time before the system runs out of goods to sell. Yep, farmers are still producing the food, and it’s getting to the shops OK, but we’ll be living on saved resources and borrowing which has a limit.

    The result of suddenly shutting every business is that many people no longer have an income. I’m not sure about the percentage of people who are now out of a job (or really any prospects of getting one), but in the UK it’s probably over 70%. My daughter is one of them. Given that schools are only accepting kids of “essential” workers, and are expecting their numbers to drop to around 25% of previous, gives some sort of estimate. A lot of those businesses will go bankrupt, and will not quickly return after the end of the Covid-19 problem. Lending them money may help if the duration was known, and thus the total of the extra debt in the business could be calculated, but that’s an unknown so the logical thing for those businesses would be to fold immediately and hope to start a new one at some future time.

    As such, your plan would avoid a lot of that damage. Really, though, it depends on either having reliable and copious testing or a wet finger in the air to decide that the official numbers of “infected” in various locations are indeed correct when we know that testing is limited in scope and there are maybe 10 times more infected people than we know about yet.

    We really need a test that looks for both presence of the various mutants of Covid-19 as well as the presence of antibodies that show the person has already had the local variant, and returns a reliable indication in hours or less (since you’d want to delay people at the borders until the test result was ready). Probably technically possible to do that, but may need some pretty fast footwork to develop and produce a good supply. Oh yes, the test needs to be pretty cheap, too…. Seems people are being charged $1000 to get tested in some places. Can’t afford that for each border crossing.

    One person getting through can quickly produce a few hundred more infected people.

    If, as seems likely, Hydroxy-chloroquinone (or similar) can act as prophylactic and stop people getting infected, then basically the problem goes away anyway. Just needs enough people in an area to be taking it to provide herd immunity and get the R0 below 1. There may be other new medicines available from the various labs working the problem that could be better, but I’d think the required testing before mass-use would delay any such alternative for at least a year.

    Apart from the ADE problem, I think the mutability of any RNA-based virus precludes any reasonable prospect of a vaccine. We probably need something that just stops replication of the virus in the way the Chloroquinone derivatives do. Less easy for the virus to find a way around that, so hopefully it will be extinct before it mutates enough to replicate in that environment.

  11. cdquarles says:

    Universal testing has its own set of problems. Keys to testing: 1. true incidence rate (if you test a low inherent rate population, you will get *many* false positives, particularly with highly sensitive screening tests), the quality of your screening tests (no false negatives) and your confirmatory tests (no false positives) and the positive predictive value (which varies due to false positives, false negatives and the inherent prevalence). So no, you do *not* test everyone. You test a large enough sample within an area suspected of having a high prevalence. If it does not have that, save your tests for the areas that do and some to recheck the low prevalence areas later, just in case. These things do spread in waves.

    Within those areas, you do targeted quarantines *early* and do aggressive contact tracing for both fomite hotspots and community spread. Once you are past the danger period (about three weeks), you can ease things slowly and test newly suspected cases.

    Obviously severe or critical cases need to be tested in a differential diagnosis battery. There are, after all, more than one kind of virally caused pneumonia as well as the need to test for secondary bacterial or fungal pneumonias.

    @Simon, don’t expect that to happen with the mutability of RNA viruses. They are more likely to have selection for resistance. That said, you just want enough time to support the immune system, which means learning enough to find ways to deal with antibody dependent enhancement (steroids for some and not for others?) and use adjuvants with vaccines. Vaccines for RNA viruses will need more aggressive testing and monitoring. Maybe some of the lessons learned from tuberculosis apply, too.

    Anyway, it should be very clear now that medicine is *not* a one size fit all get it off the rack kind of thing. Medicine must be tailored to work best, so no, a top down government dominated system will fail at the worst times.

  12. pouncer says:

    My dad was a veterinarian who in later career worked for the US Dept of Agriculture as an epidemiologist with the Animal/Plant Health Inspection Service (USDA/APHIS)

    The concept EM suggests for “clearing” states and counties for normal market interactions is exactly what veterinarians did (and do, so far as I know) for hog cholera, bovine brucellosis, chicken flu …

    Well, the vets had the option to “de-populate” a particular nasty location. Kill all the infected animals and burn the carcasses. This might, maybe, possibly be a bit unwelcome in New York City or San Francisco. Maybe. But it was necessary in at least one case for stopping a chicken flu that DID in some few cases cross over into human victims. The USDA gets little credit for stopping the sort of epidemics in swine and geese and bats that way to frequently afflict other nations who spend less on the health of the farm and ranch operations.

  13. E.M.Smith says:

    @Pouncer:

    Probanly where I got the idea… history in farm country. Things you just grew up around.

    Per NYC & San Francisco: Might those of us outside the cities have a vote on that?

    8-‘)

  14. E.M.Smith says:

    Looks like India going into lockdown in about 3 hours…

  15. rhoda klapp says:

    I don’t see the endgame for total lockdown. This bug isn’t going away. How do you take the lid off again, given that it ain’t going to fade in the spring if the experience in hot countries is anything to go by.

  16. E.M.Smith says:

    @Rhoda:

    The end game is when R0 drops below zero and the virus dies out in a population from lack of hosts. The more complete the lockdown, the faster that happens. The more leaky the lock down, the longer it takes. At R0=1 it does not change level and persists as a background infection.

    Essentially, with R0=0 in full self quaranteen, the virus dies when the infective state is over in the folks with it. At R0=0.5 if 8000 are infected, you go to 4000 in the next cycle (one to two weeks) , then 2000, 1000, 500, 250, 125, 62, 31, 16, 8, 4, 2, 1 none.

    That is why political folks start with leaky shelter in place, slowly learn it will take 6 months, and transition to full lockdown. Like most folks, they don’t really think in math and refuse to see unpleasant realities in the future so wait until it has blown up in their face to react.

  17. YMMV says:

    I haven’t looked at the details of the lockdown in India yet, but….


    (The photo is a Mumbai housing block applauding the health workers.)

    It’s going to be hard, with crowding like that. It all depends on the granularity. How many doors? How many people inside that door? Any locked down space will only protect from the virus on the other side of the door, not from the virus already inside. If the virus is already inside, maybe in a few weeks (after the last person gets infected), inside will become a green zone. But the more people inside that locked down zone, the harder it will be.

  18. E.M.Smith says:

    Over 400k globally. USA now #1 for new cases. Sorted by new cases, 2nd number field:

    USA	52,921	+9,187	684	+131	370	51,867	1,175	160	2
    Italy	69,176	+5,249	6,820	+743	8,326	54,030	3,393	1,144	113
    Spain	39,676	+4,540	2,800	+489	3,794	33,082	2,355	849	60
    Germany	32,781	+3,725	157	+34	3,243	29,381	23	391	2
    France	22,304	+2,448	1,100	+240	3,281	17,923	2,516	342	17
    Iran	24,811	+1,762	1,934	+122	8,913	13,964		295	23
    UK	8,077	+1,427	422	+87	135	7,520	20	119	6
    Switzer	9,877	+1,082	122	+2	131	9,624	141	1,141	14
    Netherl	5,560	+811	276	+63	2	5,282	435	324	16
    Austria	5,283	+809	28	+7	9	5,246	22	587	3
    Belgium	4,269	+526	122	+34	461	3,686	381	368	11
    Canada	2,590	+499	25	+1	112	2,453	1	69	0.7
    Israel	1,930	+488	3	+2	53	1,874	34	223	0.3
    Turkey	1,872	+343	44	+7		1,828		22	0.5
    Portugl	2,362	+302	33	+10	22	2,307	48	232	3
    Austrla	2,144	+257	8	+1	118	2,018	11	84	0.3
    Sweden	2,286	+240	36	+9	16	2,234	136	226	4
    Luxemb	1,099	+224	8		6	1,085	3	1,756	13
    

    At the bottom of the list, sone States that could become green zones with care. Californua still adding cases, but our lickdown us helping some. Washington State looks to have stayed low with a lid on it.

    At the top, New York is toast.

    New York	25,665	+4,790	210	+53	25,347	
    New Jersey	3,675	+831	44	+17	3,631	
    Michigan	1,791	+463	24	+9	1,767	 
    Massachusetts	1,159	+382	11	+2	1,147	
    California	2,494	+361	49	+9	2,439	
    Illinois	1,535	+250	16	+4	1,517	
    Georgia  	1,026	+223	32	+6	994	
    Louisiana	1,388	+216	46	+11	1,342	
    Pennsylvania	851	+207	7	+1	844	
    Florida    	1,412	+185	18		1,394	
    Ohio        	564	+122	8	+2	556	 
    Indiana   	365	+106	12	+5	353	
    Arizona  	326	+92	5	+3	318	
    Mississippi	320	+71	1		319	
    Maryland	349	+61	4	+1	341	
    Tennessee	667	+52	2		665	 
    North Carolina	459	+49			459	
    South Carolina	342	+43	5		337	
    Wisconsin	457	+41	5		451	
    Utah       	298	+41	1		297	
    Virginia	290	+36	7		282	
    Idaho      	81	+34			81	
    Nevada   	278	+33	4		274	
    Missouri	227	+31	5		222	
    Minnesota	262	+27	1		173	
    Oklahoma	106	+25	3	+1	102	 
    Delaware	91	+23			91	
    Arkansas	218	+21			211	
    Texas     	826	+20	9		806	
    Vermont 	95	+20	7	+2	88	
    Alabama        	215	+19			215	
    Iowa       	124	+19			124	
    Oregon   	209	+18	5		204	
    Rhode Island	124	+18			124	
    Kansas   	98	+16	2		96	
    Maine     	118	+11			115	
    Nebraska	61	+11			61	
    Alaska    	36	+4			36	
    West Virginia	20	+4			20	
    Wyoming       	29	+3			29	
    North Dakota	34	+2			34	
    South Dakota	30	+2	1		21	
    Montana        	46	+1			46	
    Washington	2,221		110		1,987	
    Colorado	720		9	+2	711	
    District Colum	137		2		135	
    Kentucky	124		4		118	
    New Hampshire	101		1		100	
    New Mexico	83				83	
    Hawaii    	77		1	+1	76	
    Diamond Cruise	49				49	
    Grand P. Cruise	30		1		29	
    Total:      	52,921	9,187	684	131	51,867	 
    
  19. Another Ian says:

    Willis E has a look at Italy

    “The Italian Connection”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/24/the-italian-connection/

    “And it’s also why the death rate in Italy is so high—these people were already very ill. I can see why the Italians are distinguishing between dying FROM the virus and dying WITH the virus.”

  20. Compu Gator says:

    Latest from Central Florida:

    Orange Co. ‘mayor’ Jerry Demings is today issuing an executive order for all seniors & people with compromised immunosystems to stay-at-home, effective Thu. Mar. 26 at 11 p,m. (EDT) for 2 wks. Intended to mean stay inside, but allowing solo walks or runs/jogs.

    Orlando mayor Buddy Dyer has issued (some kind of) order to close “nonessential businesses”. Groceries seem to be exempted; unsure of the order’s application to convenience stores.

    Neighboring counties (e.g., Brevard, Lake, Osceola, Polk, Seminole, Volusia) are reportedly not (maybe just not yet?) following the lead of Orange Co.

  21. David A says:

    YMNV says…
    I haven’t looked at the details of the lockdown in India yet, but….”

    Wow that photo. That looks like many apartment buildings in China.
    It is very likely that the air flow, if it exists, in that building, is hotel like, common air. (Not Good if so)

    In China if one person tested positive, they would all be locked in. Like I said many times, a death trap.

  22. Bill In Oz says:

    Ian, Will at WUWT has experience at dissecting climate science research.But zip on medical science & infectious diseases. But I read with interest Steve Mosher’s long comment which completely undermines Will’s whole argument.Here it is :
    Steve Mosher lives in Korea and ‘has been a close observer of just how they are succeeding in controlling the virus. He spells out the level and the details of what we have to do.’

    “The key is changing the criteria for testing. Here [in Korea] we test and track.
    An employee of a call center in Seoul, was infected.
    Office had 207 people.
    March 8th. he tested positive.
    EVERY person in that office was tested. today 152 have tested positive, they tested floors above and below his floor. Today 3 more from the 11th floor were found and 1 contact.
    They are now tracing the contact, and the contact’s contacts. All will be tested. The business was in a residential building. 553 of the people in that building were tested. floors 13-18
    This little beastie lives on surfaces for up to 3 days. See that elevator button? the hand rail on the stairs? the bathroom door handle? the coffee cup that pretty girl behind the counter handed you? it’s there. Now in my building we have hand sanitizer by the elevator buttons. you get in the habit of not touching public pretty quickly. Trust me I am not a germ phobe, but the changes have been simple when they are reinforced.

    Let me give you a little taste of the highly detailed info we get.
    Info that is shared daily in one spot, I will include some of the earlier call center case snippits

    “In Daegu, every person at high-risk facilities is being tested. 87 percent completed testing and 192 (0.8 percent) out of 25,493 were confirmed positive. From Daesil Covalescent Hospital in Dalseong-gun, 54 additional cases were confirmed, which brings the current total to 64. In-patients on 6th and 7th floors are under cohort-quarantine.”

    “From Guro-gu call center in Seoul, 7 additional cases (11th floor = 2; contacts = 5) were confirmed. The current total is 146 confirmed cases since 8 March. (11th floor = 89; 10th floor = 1; 9th floor = 1; contacts = 54)”

    “From Bundang Jesaeng Hospital in Gyeonggi Province, 4 additional cases were confirmed. The current total of 35 confirmed cases since 5 March (20 staff, 5 patients in inpatient care, 2 discharged patients, 4 guardians of patients, 4 contacts outside the hospital). The 144 staff members who were found to have visited the hospital’s Wing no. 81 (where many confirmed cases emerged) were tested, 3 of whom tested positive.”

    “Five additional confirmed cases have been reported from the call center located in Guro-gu, Seoul, amounting to a current total of 129 confirmed cases from the call center since 8 March. As of now, 14 confirmed cases in Gyeonggi Province has been traced to have come in contact with a confirmed patient who is a worker at the 11th floor call center at a religious gathering. Further investigation and tracing are underway.”

    Test, Trace, Test more.
    A random test in Iceland found 1% infected. 50% asymptomatic.
    If the US persists in only testing the symptomatic you won’t squash this bug.
    Our cases are going up in Seoul. So we will have 15 days of voluntary social distancing.

    go to work
    stay away from crowds
    wash your hands
    wear a mask
    don’t touch your face ”

    There is your way to eliminating this disease in the USA !

    We need to do this in Australia as well !

  23. David A says:

    LA statistics…
    Los Angeles County (excl. LB and Pas) Laboratory Confirmed Cases by Age Group (median age 47)
    0 to 17 10
    18 to 40 268
    41 to 65 250
    Over 65 107

    Hospitalization and Death
    Hospitalized (Ever) 119
    Deaths 11

  24. Compu Gator says:

    Compu Gator [said] 24 March 2020 at 10:00 pm [GMT]:
    [….]
    executive order for all seniors & people with compromised immunosystems to stay-at-home [….]

    The local news media “reportage” is muddling this. As best I can untangle this, after listening to follow-on “reportage”:

    The specification of “all seniors & people with compromised immunosystems” is apparently only an advisory from Gov. Ron DeSantis.

    The stay-at-home order for Orange Co. apparently applies to everyone, but with the exceptions I identified above. plus collecting drive-thro’/take-out food orders, and travel necessary to get medications (presumably also appearing for medical appointments).

    Meanwhile, Florida airports continue to allow approx. 150 flights to land here each day from New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. What the hey-yell? Are our State of Florida officials sui-[bleepin’]-cidal? As only a half-aßed measure, Orlando International Airport (MCO) will be quarantining arrivals from those places, albeit only the flights arriving directly from such Cov-19-infested places.

  25. M Simon says:

    The French Dr. is ==> Didier Raoult M.D, PhD, Professor of Medicine at Universite d’Aix-Marseille

    A good interview. (yeah. I know. Oz. It is still a good interview.)
    https://www.doctoroz.com/article/protocol-followed-french-covid-19-drug-combo-study

  26. M Simon says:

    I learned today that one of the keys to finding quinine’s effectiveness was that no one in China with lupus got corona. People with lupus use quinine.

  27. ossqss says:

    It appears the first poll results from a week of quarantine have started to come in. Not sure if the video will embed through wordpress per normal as they restricted access to it. You may have to click a link to see it via Youtube. Classic! After a week here, I feel him :-)

  28. E.M.Smith says:

    Prince Charles has tested positive for Covid-19.

    Mild symptoms. Self isolating.

    Wonder if he will change his mind about pandemic viruses…

  29. E.M.Smith says:

    Stupid beyond belief:

    https://pjmedia.com/trending/did-the-governor-of-nevada-ban-the-use-of-trump-touted-anti-malaria-drugs-to-treat-coronavirus-patients/

    Steve Sisolak, the Democrat governor of Nevada, has signed an emergency order barring the use of chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine to treat the coronavirus, after Trump touted the anti-malaria drugs as a promising treatment for those afflicted by the virus.

    According to Sisolak, there’s no consensus among experts or Nevada doctors that the drugs can treat people infected with the coronavirus. However small scale studies have shown that hydroxychloroquine combined with antibiotics may help cure people with the disease. A coronavirus patient in Florida says that he was near death and had said goodbye to his family before taking the same drug and recovering quickly afterwards. Hollywood actor Daniel Dae Kim says a combination of drugs, including hydroxychloroquine likely helped him recover from the coronavirus as well. Nevertheless, Sisolak’s emergency regulation “prohibits the prescribing and dispensing [of] choroquinine and hydroxychloroquinine for a COVID-19 diagnosis.”
    […]
    Sisolak’s response contrasts that of New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, who announced during a Sunday press briefing that New York State acquired 750,000 doses of chloroquine, 70,000 doses of hydroxychloroquine and 10,000 doses of Zithromax for clinical trials, which began this week. “The president is optimistic about these drugs and we are all optimistic that it could work,” Cuomo said.

    I thought the FDA was the governing authority. ?.

  30. Another Ian says:

    “Hump Day Hilarity – The Mouse That ….Coughed”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/25/hump-day-hilarity-the-mouse-that-coughed/

  31. Bill In Oz says:

    E M What was Charlie’s opinion of pandemic viruses ? I must have missed something.

  32. E.M.Smith says:

    Almost 10k new cases in the USA. , Then what’s up with Luxembourg? I didn’t think they were big enough for 200+ in a day.

    China	81,218		3,281		73,650	4,287	1,399	56	2
    Italy	74,386	+5,210	7,503	+683	9,362	57,521	3,489	1,230	124
    USA	64,832	+9,976	913	+133	393	63,526	1,411	196	3
    Spain	49,515	+7,457	3,647	+656	5,367	40,501	3,166	1,059	78
    Germany	37,323	+4,332	206	+47	3,547	33,570	23	445	2
    Iran	27,017	+2,206	2,077	+143	9,625	15,315		322	25
    France	25,233	+2,929	1,331	+231	3,900	20,002	2,827	387	20
    Switzer	10,897	+1,020	153	+31	131	10,613	141	1,259	18
    UK	9,529	+1,452	465	+43	135	8,929	163	140	7
    S.Korea	9,137	+100	126	+6	3,730	5,281	59	178	2
    Netherl	6,412	+852	356	+80	3	6,053	582	374	21
    Austria	5,588	+305	30	+2	9	5,549	28	620	3
    Belgium	4,937	+668	178	+56	547	4,212	474	426	15
    Canada	3,367	+575	30	+4	185	3,152	1	89	0.8
    Norway	3,066	+200	14	+2	6	3,046	57	566	3
    Portugl	2,995	+633	43	+10	22	2,930	61	294	4
    Sweden	2,526	+227	62	+22	16	2,448	158	250	6
    Turkey	2,433	+561	59	+15	26	2,348	136	29	0.7
    Brazil	2,433	+186	57	+11	2	2,374	18	11	0.3
    Austral	2,431	+114	9	+1	118	2,304	11	95	0.4
    Israel	2,369	+439	5	+2	58	2,306	37	274	0.6
    Malaysi	1,796	+172	20	+4	199	1,577	64	55	0.6
    Denmark	1,724	+133	34	+2	1	1,689	69	298	6
    Czechia	1,654	+260	6	+3	10	1,638	19	154	0.6
    Ireland	1,564	+235	9	+2	5	1,550	39	317	2
    Luxemb	1,333	+234	8		6	1,319	3	2,129	13
    Japan	1,307	+114	45	+2	310	952	57	10	0.4
    

    Then New York wow. More cases than many countries.

    New York	30,811	+4,463	285	+14	30,418	
    New Jersey	4,402	+727	62	+18	4,340	 
    Massachusetts	1,838	+679	15	+4	1,822	
    Michigan	2,295	+504	43	+19	2,247	
    Louisiana	1,795	+407	65	+19	1,730	
    Illinois	1,865	+330	19	+3	1,844	
    California	2,853	+287	64	+13	2,781	
    Pennsylvania	1,127	+276	11	+4	1,116	
    Connecticut	875	+257	19	+7	856	
    Florida    	1,682	+215	22	+2	1,660	
    Georgia  	1,247	+150	40	+2	1,207	
    Ohio        	704	+140	11	+3	693	
    Tennessee	906	+133	3	+1	903	
    Wisconsin	585	+128	6	+1	578	
    Indiana   	477	+112	14	+2	463	
    Virginia	391	+101	9	+2	380	 
    Missouri	356	+86	8		346	
    Texas     	1,105	+82	14	+2	1,080	
    South Carolina	424	+82	7	+2	417	
    Arizona   	401	+75	6	+1	392	 
    Maryland	423	+74	4		415	
    North Carolina	567	+69	2	+2	565	 
    Oklahoma	164	+58	5	+2	158	
    Mississippi	377	+57	2	+1	375	
    Oregon   	266	+57	8	+3	258	 
    Utah       	346	+48	1		345	
    Arkansas	280	+48	2		267	
    Nevada  	321	+43	6	+2	315	
    Alabama        	283	+41			283	
    Kansas   	126	+28	3	+1	123	
    Vermont 	123	+28	8	+1	115	
    Minnesota	287	+25	1		198	
    Maine      	142	+24			139	
    Iowa       	145	+21	1	+1	144	
    West Virginia	39	+19			39	
    Delaware	119	+15			119	
    North Dakota	45	+11			42	
    South Dakota	41	+11	1		27	
    Wyoming       	41	+11			41	
    Idaho      	91	+10			91	
    Rhode Island	132	+8			132	 
    Montana        	53	+7			53	
    Kentucky	163	+6	4		157	 
    Alaska    	42	+6			42	 
    Washington	2,469		123		2,222	
    Colorado	912		11		901	
    District Columb	183		2		181	
    New Hampshire	108		1		107	
    New Mexico	100		1	+1	99	
    Hawaii    	90		1		89	
    Nebraska	61				61	
    Guam     	37	+5	1		36	
    Puerto Rico	51	+12	2		48	
    U S Virgin Isls	17				17	
    Wuhan Repat.	3				3	
    Diamond Cruise	46				46	
    Total:      	64,832	9,976	913	133	63,526	 
    
  33. E.M.Smith says:

    @Bill In Oz:

    My mistake. Wrong Prince.

    [https://nwo.fandom.com/wiki/Prince_Philip_-_“If_I_were_reincarnated_I_would…be…as_a_killer_virus…”]

    “If I were reincarnated I would wish to be returned to earth as a killer virus to lower human population levels.” ― Philip, Duke of Edinburgh

    So with P. Charles being infected, perhaps P. Philip will change his attitude…

  34. E.M.Smith says:

    Still rising. Now 13k added in the USA.

    Italy	74,386	+5,210	7,503	+683	9,362	57,521	3,489	1,230	124
    USA	68,203	+13,347	1,027	+247	394	66,782	1,452	206	3
    Spain	49,515	+7,457	3,647	+656	5,367	40,501	3,166	1,059	78
    Germany	37,323	+4,332	206	+47	3,547	33,570	23	445	2
    
  35. Ossqss says:

    CFR, has ticked up globally to 16% on closed cases per WOM.

    No other such data available. The US stat for such disappeared the other night.

    Will we ever see ventilator recovery stats?

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

  36. Power Grab says:

    @ EM re:
    “So with P. Charles being infected, perhaps P. Philip will change his attitude…”

    Indeed.
    I have been praying that the schemers would fall into their own traps.
    Nice to know Someone is listening….

    Note to Self: Don’t gloat. Don’t gloat. Don’t gloat.

  37. Power Grab says:

    It seems like I wake up to a different world every morning. Then by the end of the work day, the rules have been overhauled … AGAIN!

    So now (as of 6:00 p.m. tonight) our firm’s property is closed to the public. Supposedly, our folks will be working from home. But today my boss said he would be coming into the office anyway. You can’t do much of our normal stuff from home.

    So I said I would also come into the office. It’s way easier to do my normal stuff at my normal desk and computer. But I hope I don’t have to spend the usual long hours there.

  38. Bill In Oz says:

    EM Phillip, is the Duke of Edinburgh and not a prince unlike Charlie his son.

    Phil always was a bit of the ding bat. Even Charlie said that at one point..They did not get on fo decades.
    So it’s entirely possible that Phil still thinks being reincarnated as a pandemic virus is good idea.

  39. H.R. says:

    Here’s another example of the FUBARiousness** of all things government.

    The Federal Income Tax due date was pushed out to July 15th. YAY!

    Our State Income Tax filing deadline is still April 15th. So… what?

    Well it seems our State needs the Federal taxes filed as input to the State form. So we have to file Federal taxes by April 15th anyhow. Booo! Hiss, hiss!

    We’re still checking into a workaround. If it was all old-school paper forms, we’d simply fill out the Fed form, make a copy, and then send the Fed form in with the State form. Then file the Fed form in July. But since it’s all electronic now, it appears that the Fed form must be filed.

    We’ll see how it goes. It’s not apparent at the moment, but I have to think that what could be done in a paper system could also be done in an e-file system.

    **FUBARiousness isn’t in any dictionary… yet. At the rate our Elite Government Overlords are going, I’m sure that it will soon be added.

  40. E.M.Smith says:

    @Bill In Oz:

    I guess my ‘Merican half is showing… can’t be bothered with sorting titles, and tracking peerage pecking orders… Duke, Prince, Leach, whatever… (Spouse loves that stuff…) I do have a fondness for the Queen who has her head on straight (anyone who drove an ambulance in war and can wring the neck of their chicken dinner has a grip on reality…) but after thst I tend to not care about titles.

    @H.R.:

    Well keep checking. California fell in line with the Feds. Though for me, I’ve filed anyway as I have a refund coming.

  41. David A says:

    Ossqss, that is not the only disappeared graphic from WM. I no longer see the graphics that depict that statistic anywhere on the site, not for the world or nations.

    China’s numbers look ever more suspect. German numbers of serious critical look very strange. Five to six times as many deaths as serious/ critical.

  42. Steve C says:

    Interesting to note that “As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.” Not, strangely, blazoned across the media.
    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19
    As they say on the page, this doesn’t mean there is nothing to worry about, but it’s a welcome sign that they’re actually evaluating the figures.

    And it’s a lovely Spring day again, apart from the looming threat of a horrible death. ;-)

  43. cdquarles says:

    Locally, we are in the exponential growth phase of it. When it will top out remains to be seen. Over half of the counties have at least one known case and the state has one known death. 3 known cases in my county. Metro Birmingham is still the hardest hit, but relatively speaking the next 10 largest (population) areas are increasing at a faster rate (expected, since they start with fewer/no cases). To the extent that weather has an effect, we have had a nicely mild last 2/3rds of the month (one cool night) and a fair amount of rain. I still, though, expect an Easter/near Easter cold snap. Upside is that I don’t have to run the heater and it isn’t warm enough, yet, to need AC.

  44. David A says:

    Steve C, what figures?

  45. E.M.Smith says:

    @CDQuarles:

    Like that here, on and off, too! Had a few rainy days, but before that, and today, sunny and about right. Got my top-up of Vit-D today :-)

    We do have the particularly Californian thing of cool nights so a bit of heat needed then.

  46. Ossqss says:

    Well, we are now in first place.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

  47. E.M.Smith says:

    @Ossqss:

    Yup. Over 1/2 Million, globally.

    Coronavirus Cases:
    529,071
    Deaths:
    23,967

    From behind S.Korea to top of the list.. What happens when you tell people not to wear masks and leave asymptomatic spreaders and low symptom cases in the community and don’t contact trace every tested case, and test every contact.

    USA	83,144	+14,933	1,201	+174	1,864	80,079	2,112	251	4
    China	81,285		3,287		74,051	3,947	1,235	56	2
    Italy	80,589	+6,203	8,215	+712	10,361	62,013	3,612	1,333	136
    Spain	57,786	+8,271	4,365	+718	7,015	46,406	3,166	1,236	93
    Germany	43,938	+6,615	267	+61	5,673	37,998	23	524	3
    Iran	29,406	+2,389	2,234	+157	10,457	16,715	2,746	350	27
    France	29,155	+3,922	1,696	+365	4,948	22,511	3,375	447	26
    Switzer	11,811	+914	191	+38	131	11,489	141	1,365	22
    UK	11,658	+2,129	578	+115	135	10,945	163	172	9
    S.Korea	9,241	+104	131	+5	4,144	4,966	59	180	3
    Netherl	7,431	+1,019	434	+78	3	6,994	761	434	25
    Austria	6,898	+1,310	49	+18	112	6,737	96	766	5
    Belgium	6,235	+1,298	220	+42	675	5,340	605	538	19
    Canada	4,043	+634	39	+3	228	3,776	120	107	1
    
  48. Compu Gator says:

    I suppose someone had (already) thought of this sooner than I, but I realized tonight that with Wuhan being in Hubei province, this pandemic could be called the Wu-Hu Virus (where both ‘u’ are pronounced as the same letter in “flu“) [*].

    ——-
    Note *: I have no idea whether the spelling of those place-names in Anglophone news-media is according to the CCP’s Pinyin, or to the late-colonial Wade-Gilles (sp.?), but the combined abbreviation works for me to lighten up thoughts of my odds as a senior with certain, um, recently manifested health liabilities.

  49. H.R. says:

    @cdquarles – You mentioned rain. I was out fishing again today (quelle surprise!) and was wondering if rainy weather suppressed the virus. (File under “Things you think of while fishing.”)

    My locale is sitting on the edge of a high/low pressure war in the sky, so we waffle back and forth between sunny and warmish and rainy, cloudy and cold. I mowed today in sunshine, finishing in the early afternoon. By 5:00 pm, we had rain. That’s a typical Spring hereabouts.

    It occurred to me that rain washes the virus out of the air and into the drains. I just haven’t figured out a way to determine if rain is a meaningful event in tamping down the spread of the Wuhan Flu.

  50. Compu Gator says:

    Ossqss [said] 26 March 2020 at 9:50 pm [GMT]:
    Well, we are now in first place.

    Well! Suggesting a new motto for caps & t-shirts,
    on the media-colluded blue of the U.S. Democrats [#]:
    “CDC & FDA bureaucracy: Making America #1 again!”

    Let’s hear it, folks!: “We’re #1!” “We’re #1!” “We’re #1!”

    ——-
    Note #: In my teen years, I assisted with a presidential-election-night party given by my parents, probably for the 1964 Goldwater/Johnson election, but maybe for the 1968 Humphrey/Nixon election. My Dad had covered a large sheet of plywood with blackboard paint, then painted an outline-drawing of the U.S. states. “Everyone knew” that states forecast as carried by the Republicans, because of the commonly prefixed adjective “blue-blood“, should be colored in using blue, and those won by the Democrats, then only relatively to the left, should be colored in using red (which rendered as pink when using blackboard chalk. But major-t.v.-network coverage in one of those years, contrary to what “everyone knew”, used the reverse, and that’s what’s stuck in the mainstream media ever since.

  51. ossqss says:

    Hummm, I think CG may be on to something. The WuHuFlu?

    @HR, great, now we need to know how long this thing is viable in rain soaked ground, fish, worms, chipmunks and squirrels are all exposed. The exponential ramifications could be challenging. Is there a mask for them? I give up! :-)

    Queue up Rick James, “Give it to me” :-)

    Video redacted due to lazyness~

  52. E.M.Smith says:

    I volunteer to eat the bass to test their infectivity. Roast squirrel too for that matter…

  53. E.M.Smith says:

    Looks like New York now has more cases than all but 5 countries:

    NewYork  44,635	+5,658	519	+53	42,071	
    [...]
    USA	96,920	+11,485	1,473	+178	2,453	92,994	2,463	293	4
    Italy	86,498	+5,909	9,134	+919	10,950	66,414	3,732	1,431	151
    China	81,340	+55	3,292	+5	74,588	3,460	1,034	57	2
    Spain	64,059	+6,273	4,934	+569	9,357	49,768	4,165	1,370	106
    Germany	49,344	+5,406	321	+54	5,673	43,350	23	589	4
    France	32,964	+3,809	1,995	+299	5,700	25,269	3,787	505	31
    Iran	32,332	+2,926	2,378	+144	11,133	18,821	2,893	385	28
    UK	14,543	+2,885	759	+181	135	13,649	163	214	11
    
  54. E.M.Smith says:

    Maybe we can give New York / New Amsterdam back to the Dutch…

    :-)

  55. H.R. says:

    Well, I’m doing my part to stop the spread of the Wu Hu Flu.

    I put little masks on each of the fish before I throw them back.

  56. YMMV says:

    Did you know that pangolins are threatened with extinction? (I had never heard of them) They are a shy nocturnal scaly anteater that lives in forests in Asia and Africa. Over a million of them have been illegally captured there over the past ten years and sold in markets in China and Vietnam.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin_trade

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2169-0
    “Identifying SARS-CoV-2 related coronaviruses in Malayan pangolins”

    “Here, we report the identification of SARS-CoV-2-related coronaviruses in Malayan pangolins (Manis javanica) seized in anti-smuggling operations in southern China. Metagenomic sequencing identified pangolin-associated coronaviruses that belong to two sub-lineages of SARS-CoV-2-related coronaviruses, including one that exhibits strong similarity to SARS-CoV-2 in the receptor-binding domain”

    The tested animals were from before the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak and did not have the “polybasic (furin-like) S1/S2 cleavage site in the spike protein that distinguishes human SARS-CoV-2 from related betacoronaviruses”. But “SARS-CoV-2 exhibits very high sequence similarity to the Guangdong pangolin coronaviruses in the receptor-binding domain”. The puzzle is still missing pieces.

    It’s too hard to say more about this paper, so you might want to dig into it yourself.

  57. Ossqss says:

    Hearing of some good data on multiple therapy items coming this weekend.

    Also listened to a Dr. who has been using some as a prophylactic successfully. He also discussed the several steps involved to the intubation level, and the seemingly very low rate of recovery once there. Plasma therapy was one of the treatments that appears to help even those patients in reference to the first data item mentioned in the first sentence of my comment.

    I hope the coming news will at least release the hydroxicloroquine preventative solution for public use.

  58. Ossqss says:

    Quite an informative video from a site I frequent. Courtesy of Mosher in this instance.

  59. David A says:

    Questions on that Mosher fed link.
    Looking at just the last week hides how long it took to get there. Not certainly you can remove the time element?

  60. YMMV says:

    Ossqss: indeed, a very good video. Once you have viewed it to see his explanation of the novel graphing method, go to
    https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

    Singapore went down and then came back up! Japan has no reported deaths? Japan was better at first, but now not so much. The only successes are China, South Korea, and Qatar and all of these have bounced back up somewhat.
    —-

    E.M., could you check for my comment in moderation in 23-march-…
    I don’t see any reason why it went to moderation. Thanks.

  61. YMMV says:

    @David A, it shows all cases to date, not just the past week. The only time element is the animation. Reset the scroll bar and play it again.

  62. David A says:

    YMMV, yes, but the Y axis is cases in the past week. If time is the speed of the animation it is quite the wag to see, but it appears that China moves far slower then all other nations.

    There are things I like, but it hides how much more rapid the disease progression is in the ROW compared to China. Both fatalities and case load are greatly accelerated in the ROW vs China. Also via infected per million stats, all other nations get even with China, and then quickly surpass China. ( Often by a very large percentage) And the do this in considerably less time then China’s chart claims. Also the China time frame is far too short, as the infection had two months of free run before the January 23rd Wuhan shut down.
    So the Worldometer plot misses those two months completely. None of this is clear in the linked video.

    I really liked the testing data by nation.

  63. Ossqss says:

    David A, they don’t ultimately plot against time. Hence, the variation.

  64. YMMV says:

    David A: “it appears that China moves far slower then all other nations”

    Interesting point. The animation runs at a speed that makes it look like a fireworks display. There should be an option to slow it down or to run it week by week. I have done this manually with the time scroll bar. What I see is that each country starts out slow, but quickly gets going. On this log-log scale all of them then appear to go at the same “speed”. Even China. Whatever ‘speed’ means on a log-log scale. I think that is interesting, that the paths and the speeds are so uniform. Until they control it, those few which do. For the the other ones, that is really scary! The gas pedal is stuck down and there are no brakes. As Dylan put it, some vandal stole the handle.

    BTW, the first video has a brief shot of what it looks like on a daily basis. Too volatile to use, but we should remember that doing it by week smooths the data.

    Now I want to see the data from each state plotted like this.

  65. A C Osborn says:

    Including China is pretty pointless, they just outright lied from day 1.

  66. David A says:

    Yes, China lied big time. But go to the Worldometer site, and one can compare the time and number of infections vs population and straight number of infections vs time. Every nations rise is steeper then China. Only South Korea starts the flattening on as rapid of a time scale, and the had advanced warning, and far earlier defensive protocols, and much greater early testing. What is remarkable is that China starts on the WM site on January 22nd, after two months of free reign spread. Look at any other nations start point with a similar number of infected and dead as what China shows on January 22, and you will see the infection spread is faster and deadlier.

  67. David A says:

    China’s numbers on China are distorted on the Mosher graphic by China changing there methodology more then once. On February 12th and 13th they added in a very large back log of not tested patients using the Cov19 penimonia pathology, and then they stopped doing this moving forward. No other nations did this.
    Even so other nations quickly reach 3 times the daily case load of China, and 4 times or more the daily death rate.

  68. cdquarles says:

    Do not forget that China is/was where the initial infection started, probably from just one or a handful of cases. The rest of the world was seeded from there, so they essentially start with larger, and unknown initial case loads. The later the start for a country, the greater the potential number of seed cases.

    Yeah, I don’t completely agree with a December start for this. I’d say it started in China back in the early autumn, say October or November.

  69. Richard Bellew says:

    Re discussion a while back about quinine and Chloroquine as treatments for Corona Virus. First there’s an interesting (if incomplete and requiring a tinfoil hat) story about Chloroquine in France in (of course) Zerohedge (at https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-why-france-hiding-cheap-and-tested-virus-cure). Second, has anyone knowledge or experience of Hexaquine? It contains 120 mg Quinine Benzoate and 32 mg of Thiamin Chlorohydrate per pill. It’s an anti-malarial. Possibly applicable to Covid-19? Should pack more punch than a Gin & Tonic! Does anyone know?

  70. E.M.Smith says:

    @Richard Bellew:

    While it is Zerohedge, so subject to sensationalism, I think it has some truth.

    They managed to leave out some other likely connections:

    The Green Population Bomb ideology permeating European “leadership” that desires a big depopulation. Many at the top want deaths.

    Government pensions that are bankrupt at present payouts. They benefit from deaths.

    Government healthcare and “old folks care” nursing homes that are bankrupt and overloaded. They benefit from deaths due to age & comorbidity.

    The “open borders” folks want population replacement of those pesky independent minded Europeans. They welcome deaths.

    Thd Progressives would love to kill off the old conservative votes and just keep the younger brainwashed. They cheer the deaths.

    And a few more…

    How many of the Official Decision Makers are in one of those groups?

    How much Soros money is backing them up?

  71. A C Osborn says:

    EM, watching the FDA, CDC and Democrats deliberately holding back the help for US people just to get at Trump also suggests the same attitude, they are after all Globalists as well.

  72. Ossqss says:

    Seems Germany audited their statistics. Quite the change from 23 severe/critical the last day.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

  73. cdquarles says:

    I have seen that Pfizer/French HCQ/Azth study. It is encouraging, but remember, only 80 people were treated. Do not be surprised if numbers like that don’t hold elsewhere and especially where conditions are different. That said, were I on the front lines (have been there), I’d take it, just like I took one of the first Hep B vaccines back in the early 80s.

  74. jim2 says:

    Christian Perronne, head of the infectious diseases department at the Raymond-Poincaré Hospital near Paris, says he is already using these treatments. “But the problem is, the stocks are very limited. There aren’t many drugs available, which is a pity. Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are the most active,” he told FRANCE 24.

    “Professor Raoult’s team has done a very preliminary study, but on 24 patients, it’s still quite convincing. It shows the reduction of the virus in the patients’ secretions. We hope that this will slow down the spread,” he explained, referring to the research in Marseille.

    Raoult explained that his team had conducted a clinical trial during which he had treated people infected with COVID-19 with chloroquine. After six days, only 25 percent of the patients who had taken the drug still had the virus in their bodies, according to the physician-microbiologist. In contrast, 90 per cent of those who had not taken chloroquine continued to have the coronavirus.

    For Perronne, that should make it possible to use this treatment today. “I fully agree with the authorities and my colleagues that further studies are needed to find out more about this. What I am asking is that, as of today, the factories that manufacture hydroxychloroquine are working day and night to provide millions of treatments for patients who, today, are isolated in their hospitals and do not have antiviral treatments. We know this product can work and will probably prevent many people from going into intensive care,” he explained

    ‘We have to go to war’

    https://www.france24.com/en/20200324-chloroquine-can-work-some-insist-as-debate-on-using-anti-malaria-drug-against-coronavirus-rages

  75. cdquarles says:

    @jim2,
    Thanks. From that report I can see that they are doing sputum examination (ever had or done a bronchial lavage so you can limit some sources of contamination/confounding?) and maybe others, too, on their cases. There is in-vitro data, as far back as 2003, if I am remembering correctly, that the chloroquinone family had inhibitory action. Some other known antivirals, known via in-vitro work, have also been shown to have inhibitory action. The main questions are: 1. How effective are these, 2. How safe are these, 3. Who should get them, 4. Who shouldn’t get them and what other treatments can be used for those who can’t use the available ones.

  76. Ossqss says:

    Seems an enforcable lockdown coming for NY NJ Conn soon. Grumbling are heard. There are a large amount of those folks up there coming to Florida and we don’t want them here. Gov Desantis has even spoken to that problem.

  77. E.M.Smith says:

    The USA cracks into 6 figures, over the 100k line.

    Italy beats China, right behind the USA.

    A bunch of 5 figure countries now.

    USA	116,448	+12,322	1,943	+247	3,224	111,281	2,666	352	6	Jan 20
    Italy	92,472	+5,974	10,023	+889	12,384	70,065	3,856	1,529	166	Jan 29
    China	81,394	+54	3,295	+3	74,971	3,128	886	57	2	Jan 10
    Spain	72,248	+6,529	5,812	+674	12,285	54,151	4,165	1,545	124	Jan 30
    Germany	56,202	+5,331	403	+52	6,658	49,141	1,581	671	5	Jan 26
    France	37,575	+4,611	2,314	+319	5,700	29,561	4,273	576	35	Jan 23
    Iran	35,408	+3,076	2,517	+139	11,679	21,212	3,206	422	30	Feb 18
    UK	17,089	+2,546	1,019	+260	135	15,935	163	252	15	Jan 30
    Switzer	13,377	+449	242	+11	1,530	11,605	280	1,546	28	Feb 24
    Netherl	9,762	+1,159	639	+93	3	9,120	761	570	37	Feb 26
    S.Korea	9,478	+146	144	+5	4,811	4,523	59	185	3	Jan 19
    
  78. E.M.Smith says:

    New York is screwed. New Jersey right behind. California doing A Lot better (probably from our early lockdown in the hot counties), but still doubled in 4 days. Florida showing a big jump (Spring Break & N.Y. Snowbirds?) Louisiana too.

    New York	52,318	+6,056	728	+122	48,864	
    New Jersey	11,124	+2,299	140	+32	10,984	
    California	4,980	+189	104	+10	4,855	
    Florida    	3,763	+565	54	+8	3,709	
    Washington	3,723	+23	175		3,424	
    Michigan	3,657		92		3,560	
    Louisiana	3,315	+569	137	+18	3,178	 
    Massachusetts	3,240		35		3,204	
    Illinois	3,026		34		2,990	
    Pennsylvania	2,751	+533	34	+12	2,717	
    Georgia  	2,366	+168	69	+4	2,297	
    Texas     	2,075	+125	27	+1	2,037	
    Colorado	1,734		31		1,703	
    Ohio        	1,406	+269	25	+6	1,381	
    Connecticut	1,291		27		1,264	
    Indiana   	1,232	+251	31	+7	1,201	
    Tennessee	1,203		6		1,197	
    Maryland	992	+218	5		955	
    North Carolina	952	+72	4	+1	948	
    Wisconsin	906	+64	16	+2	888	
    Arizona  	773	+108	15	+2	755	
    Virginia	739	+135	17	+3	720	
    Missouri	670		9		659	
    Mississippi	663	+84	13	+5	650	
    Alabama        	644	+17	3		641	
    Nevada  	621	+86	10		611	
    Utah       	602	+122	2		600	
    South Carolina	539		13		526	
    Minnesota	441	+43	5	+1	302	
    Oregon   	414		11		403	
    Arkansas	381		3		359	
    Oklahoma	377	+55	15	+7	361	
    District Columb	304		4		249	
    Kentucky	302		8		292	
    Iowa       	298	+63	3		277	
    Idaho      	230		3		227	 
    Delaware	213	+48	3	+1	201	 
    Vermont 	211	+27	12	+2	199	
    Maine     	211	+43	1		194	
    Rhode Island	203				203	
    Kansas   	202		4		198	 
    New Mexico	191		1		190	 
    New Hampshire	187		2		185	
    Montana        	129	+8	1		128	
    Hawaii    	120				120	
    Nebraska	96	+11	2	+2	94	
    West Virginia	96		1		95	
    Alaska    	85	+16	2	+1	83	
    North Dakota	83	+15	1		66	
    Wyoming       	82	+9			82	
    South Dakota	68	+10	1		41	
    Guam     	51		1		50	
    Puerto Rico	100	+21	3		96	
    US Virgin Isl	19				19	
    Wuhan Repat	3				3	
    Diamond Cruise	46				46	
    Total:      	116,448	12,322	1,943	247	111,281	 
    
  79. E.M.Smith says:

    Interesting interview with a leading Korean expert on Chinese WuHuFlu Covid-19

    Key points:

    Masks essential to stop the spread.
    20% are asymptomatic
    30% lose sense of smell and taste for 5-10 days.
    Kids are often asymptomatic or low symptom carriers.
    3%-ish fatality rate in S. Korea.
    July or August end BEST CASE…
    Countries that have controlled this did so by stong actions and preparation after MERS & SARS experiences scared them into preparation.
    Kaletra, chloroquine found somewhat effective. In use for critical patients.
    Remdesivir being tested.

  80. jim2 says:

    This could be useful. Mix vinegar and hydrogen peroxide to make a peracetic acid. It kills bacteria that hydrogen peroxide alone can’t. From the article:

    Peracetic acid is formed by the reaction of hydrogen peroxide with acetic acid. It has excellent disinfectant activity, requiring use levels of only 0.02% or lower against bacteria. However, it has poor stability, tending toward the reverse reaction back to hydrogen peroxide and acetic acid. Formulations with peracetic acid often also contain hydrogen peroxide and acetic acid to help stabilize it.

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/pharmacology-toxicology-and-pharmaceutical-science/peracetic-acid

  81. Bill In Oz says:

    That South Korean video is great !
    I’ve been reposting it here in Oz.

  82. YMMV says:

    The Asian Boss video is very good. (YouTube gAk7aX5hksU)
    The South Koreans expert is Professor Kim Woo-joo from Korea University Guro Hospital.

    He says many interesting things; I’ll add a few more to that list.

    8:00 – 8:36 You can get re-infected after you recover. They have had cases where the symptoms appear again 5 – 7 days after recovery and discharge from the hospital.

    The three main ways to get infected are from droplets (sneezes, talking, shouting), from direct contact (shaking hands), and from indirect contact (touching contaminated surfaces).

    Getting infected by breathing the air is possible in some circumstances — indoors, closed, crowded, active, where the droplets get smaller so that gravity doesn’t take them down. But outdoors this is not a problem.

    Wearing glasses helps. Masks are definitely effective. The WHO just wanted the doctors to have them available as top priority. But masks are necessary for everybody.

    And more.

  83. David A says:

    CD, there is documentation of November 17th that I saw. That is two months plus of basically uninterrupted spread in one of the most populated cities on earth, in a nation with 4 times the population density of the U.S.

    The world meter for China starts on January 22nd with about 250 cases and 8 dead. By then every hospital in Wuhan had been massively over run, with people lined up for blocks trying to get in.

    In much less time then this, with simi quarantine, 20 percent of the Diamond Princess was infected.
    In much less time then this, 80 percent of one congregation if over 1000 people were infected.

    China allowed zero observations. Two of four of China’s quarrantine methods were death traps that excellerated the RO dramatically.
    China’s numbers are aggregious lies.

  84. David A says:

    Thailand Medical News has an article on complications of hydroxychloroquine use with certain patients with cardiac arrhythmias.
    Sorry, no link right now.

    However it was a China study, and I would think with existing long term use history, this would be known. Unless it was a virus specific interaction with compounding pre conditions.

  85. cdquarles says:

    Chloroquinones and cardiac arrhythmias is known. That said, lots of things cause arrhythmias.

  86. Ossqss says:

    CD, so the question is for some, a potenital problem, or potential death, with or without it…

    Just sayin.

  87. E.M.Smith says:

    There are known cardiac, eye, and drug interaction issues with chloroquine, and more. Higher dose makes them worse. The big question is what dose is prophylactic, curative, and problematic? And are those enough different to be both safe and effective. The anti-malarial prophylactic dose is much lower than the therapeutic one, for example, so has fewer isdues in long use. It isn’t a free ride in any case. No drug is. So doctors get to work out all that part. IIRC, it can also slow kidney clearing time for some other drugs.

  88. p.g.sharrow says:

    The chloroquine is not actually the viral limiting medication. Zinc is the limit factor as it prevents RNA replication inside the cell. but the cell walls tend to limit penetration of zinc into the cell. Chloroquine increases the perpetration of Zinc into the cell. Zinc prevents the replication of the virus. Chloroquine accumulates in the body and becomes toxic as too much accumulates increasing cell wall penetration of metals.
    Baring Chloroquine, vitamin C is our next bet to limit or reduce viral replication, improve the bodies resistance to stress, and increases the ability of the immune system’s response. Vitamin D & E also assists. They accumulate so can become toxic from long term heavy dosing but C is readily flushed from the body and can be easily tolerated..
    I take D&E and a gram a day of C and plan on massive doses of C if infection is noticed…pg

  89. p.g.sharrow says:

    @EMSmith; Good friend of mine was a Navy pilot . Now, the drink of choice for Pilots was Gin&Tonic, but the Flight Surgeons recommended that they skip the tonic as it could reduce a pilots night vision ability, a side effect of the quinine. I would think that tonic water and zinc would provide the same effect as chloroquine medication. The gin might provide a nice side effect and make the tonic more palatable. 8-) …pg

  90. E.M.Smith says:

    @P.G.:

    For traditional British tonic, yes, but to “save” people from too much, current tonic water has a very small dose. Takes about 10 L to get the theraputic dose (if my input data were right).

    I’d still be willing to chug a couple of L / day if shit bit me. (I have actually done that a few years ago for something else. It gets hard to swallow over 4 L a day after a couple of days).

  91. p.g.sharrow says:

    @EMSmith; as it is accumulative. I would expect you could work on it a few drinks a day if you got a head start on it. Prevent a serious infection if you happen to get exposed by reducing the RNA replication. Just be sure to take zinc to maximize any beneficial effect.
    Finding Tonic Water might become difficult as “someone” seems to be taking all quinine things out of the market place…pg

  92. cdquarles says:

    Hmm, another thing. If I am remembering correctly, the ‘mycin’ antibiotics affect RNA synthesis in bacteria and maybe mitochondria. So, azithromycin may directly inhibit the effect of an RNA virus taking over the RNA systems of a cell, which include protein synthesis. So, for many; though sadly probably not all, the chloroquinones + zinc sulfate + azithromycin might be the best combo, plus C, D, and E where one or more of those are relatively deficient.

    I read somewhere that azithromycin had good effects in people with cystic fibrosis, so there may be additional benefits here if part of the viral pneumonia syndrome includes inducing fibrosis.

  93. E.M.Smith says:

    It doesn’t build up as much as you might think:

    https://www.drugs.com/monograph/quinine-sulfate.html

    Half-life
    Adults: 8–21 hours in those with malaria and 7–12 hours in those who are healthy or convalescing from the disease.106 107

    Children 1–12 years of age: 11–12 hours in those with malaria and 6 hours in those convalescing from the disease.106

    Geriatric adults: Mean elimination half-life after single dose is increased to 18.4 hours.180 183 186 At steady-state, mean elimination half-life is 24 hours in geriatric adults compared with 20 hours in younger adults.180 183 186 Although renal clearance of quinine is similar in geriatric and younger adults, geriatric adults excrete a larger proportion of the dose in urine as unchanged drug compared with younger adults.

    Azithromycin also increases interferon creation:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4923851/

    Azithromycin transiently increased expression of IFNβ and IFNλ1 and RIG-I like helicases in un-infected COPD cells. Further, azithromycin augmented RV16-induced expression of interferons and RIG-I like helicases in COPD cells but not in healthy epithelial cells. Azithromycin also decreased viral load. However, it only modestly altered RV16-induced pro-inflammatory cytokine expression.
    […]
    The term “macrolide” joins a group of anti-bacterial agents, composed of a 12- to 16-atom large lactone ring. Their anti-bacterial action comprises of interfering with bacterial protein synthesis by binding to the 50S ribosomal subunit7. Recent studies have shown that macrolide antibiotics also display anti-inflammatory and anti-viral activities by variably affecting cytokine expression8,9,10 and reducing susceptibility to viral infections
    […]
    Recent in vitro studies reported that azithromycin augments rhinovirus-induced interferon expression in bronchial epithelial cells from healthy donors and children with cystic fibrosis
    […]
    We demonstrate here that clinically relevant concentrations of azithromycin induced transient expression of type I and III interferons in un-infected cells. Furthermore, azithromycin produced marked and sustained augmentation of rhinovirus infection-induced interferon responses and expression of RIG-I like helicases and it also decreased viral load. The azithromycin-induced interferon expression occurred in primary bronchial epithelial cells from COPD patients but not in cells obtained from healthy controls.

  94. Compu Gator says:

    CDQuarles [said] 29 March 2020 at 6:16 pm [GMT]:
    So, for many; though sadly probably not all, the chloroquinones + zinc sulfate + azithromycin might be the best combo, plus C, D, and E where one or more of those are relatively deficient.

    Sigh. Of particular interest to my family:
    Drugs that affect heart rhythm
    Hydroxychloroquine should not be taken with other drugs that could cause heart arrhythmias (irregular heart rate or rhythm). Taking hydroxychloroquine with these drugs could cause dangerous arrhythmias. Examples of these drugs include:
    amiodarone,
    chlorpromazine,
    clarithromycin.
    [….]
    Heart drug
    Taking digoxin with hydroxychloroquine may increase the levels of digoxin in your body. This may increase your risk of side effects from digoxin.

    <https://www.healthline.com/health/hydroxychloroquine-oral-tablet#interactions>.

    A day or 2 ago, a search found me a link that I assumed was comparable info from <https://www.drugs.com>, but I failed to log it, and now I can’t find it. Maybe I’m just too distractec by other things I need to accomplish today.

  95. llanfar says:

    An interesting take on everything. Argues that there were 2 viruses – both manufactured. The first quite deadly and reason for China’s lockdown. The second to cover up.

    1. https://youtu.be/jFvCwdfoiH8 – runtime17:53
    2. https://youtu.be/82XXjJPJncg – runtime17:23
    3. https://youtu.be/MgCJfzGa-4E – runtime13:04

  96. Compu Gator says:

    Pres. Trump news-conf. 17:14–~17:30 EDT (23:14 GMT):
    Trump announced 1_000_000 U.S. diagnostic samples have now been tested (“and tested accurately”)

    Social-distance guidelines will be retained thro’ end of April (per whatever model is most credible to him, presumably from some combo of U.S. HHH, CDC, FDA–but I hope not from WHO).

    FDA has now given prompt approval to use of hydroxychloroq. (Hcq.) & chloroq. (Cq.) (feel free to supply the proper chemical-name endings, whether “-quine” or “-quinone”). Now many millions of doses have been donated of Hcq. & Cq. (dates of arrival not announced that I heard). Upon receiving a complaint from Guv. ________ of Ohio, Pres. Trump, arranged FDA approval, previously stalled (ahem!) for machines that clean 120_000 masks/day.

    Feds are now distributing ca. 1_000 new ventilators. More are being built by U.S. brand-name companies, e.g., GM (60_000), GE Healthcare, Honeywell, MyPillow(!), United Technologies, and a few other companies.

    Numerous details unintentionally omitted: I’m not a touch-typist, merely fast hunt-&-peck.

  97. cdquarles says:

    The chloroquinones are known to exacerbate prolonged qT intervals on electrocardiograms. That syndrome is known to increase the risk of cardiac arrest. NB, 40J of energy, applied at the right time in that interval is also known to cause cardiac arrest (that’s right, a chest thump at the right time with the right amount of energy can kill).

    Digoxin, a plant derivative from foxgloves, if I am remembering correctly, does the same thing, so the two obviously is an issue for some. Same is true of amiodarone, which, like digoxin, is *given* to help with some cardiac arrhythmias and/or heart failure. If I am remembering correctly, digoxin has a large number of interactions and a very narrow therapeutic window. Close monitoring is required for proper use of this one.

    Clarithromycin is another of the ‘mycin’ group and is a macrolide like erythromycin or azithromycin. No surprise there.

  98. Ossqss says:

    So let me do some math.

    We have a huge package in the US that will be distributed in a few weeks to those who have online accounts with the IRS. Others will get checks mailed to them.

    We have a very large population in the US that, from various studies, doesn’t have $400 stashed for emergencies. Add to that many prisoners being released for health concerns (do they have income), and the plot thickens in the next few weeks.

    Just sayin, think about the calculus.

  99. E.M.Smith says:

    Interesting news from inside China and parts of Europe too

  100. M Simon says:


    ( About 12 minutes )


    ( About 5 1/2 minutes )

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