An oddly interesting write up. It is from the perspective of someone who lived through the collapse of the Former Soviet Union, and purports to offer advice to Americans on our coming collapse. It is an interesting perspective, though on many points I find it a bit daft.
First, a few of my complaints.
It dwells at some length in the lead-in on Peak Oil. Clearly written prior to fracking causing a gas and oil glut. The basic thesis of resource shortage is flawed. Frequent readers here will know that I fully reject any notion of there ever being a “running out” of resources. Not energy, nor material, nor food and water. We can ALWAYS make more resources as needed. It is fundamental to what is a resource, and what people do when they invent and create goods.
OK, his thesis is that with the end of oil, and Peak Oil happening now, the USA as major oil guzzler is doomed, and will soon collapse. That, I don’t buy. The second set of comparisons is much more apt. The US Debt being beyond hope. The export of our industrial base. And more. But I wonder if that is sufficient for a collapse like the FSU experienced. More likely just some Very Hard Times. I’m also of the opinion that the EU will go first into that dark night, being more financially shaky.
He also clearly works from stereotypes about the USA that were influenced by a Russian perspective. In particular, he bangs on a bit about racism and how implied race wars will make the entire South through Texas to California unsuited for survival. The implication being that roving bands of various races will be having running gun battles so, oh, a 100 acre ranch in the back woods of Georgia will somehow be made untenable. Right….
Then there is the match set of assertions that the high level of gun ownership will result in instability and death, while at the same time saying the failure of the normal government delivered security will result in plagues of theft, muggings, etc. Um, no room for “an armed society is a polite society”? After a major (Andrew, I think) hurricane hit parts of the south, many neighborhoods were without services for many days. There are recorded instances of the neighborhoods organizing their own security with folks standing watch with their own guns and keeping the peace just fine, thank you very much. That is the more likely outcome of our “gun culture”.
There are a few other complaints, but I’ll let them be for now. (Things like expecting banks to evict the majority of folks from their homes causing homelessness to be rampant, when now, even post ‘housing crisis’ by several years, I know a couple of families still in their homes despite not paying the mortgage for a few years. In large financial collapses, the banks can’t evict folks that fast, and don’t want to do so as it collapses the value of their equity even faster. A detail not clear to folks who have lived too long in central planned economies…)
The Interesting Bits:
I find much of interest in this story. The perspective on what Russia was like during the fall. Some insight on what really does happen when folks are in dire circumstances. Ideas on what did work (like home kitchen gardens and ‘honey buckets’) and what makes good money alternatives (home made vodka or moonshine; so put parts for a nice sized still in your kit ;-) He also clearly has insight into life in cold frozen places that I’m not so skilled at, being from California where “cold” means not wearing shorts ;-)
Here’s the link, than a quote for flavor:
Post-Soviet Lessons for a Post-American Century
by Dmitry Orlov
26 pages long
Reached via links from the author’s home site here: http://cluborlov.com/
h/t to Larry Ledwick for pointing me at that site here.
Since Google docs doesn’t want to let me take selected small quotes, I’ve had to resort to screen prints of larger chunks. Oh well…
click on it for a larger readable version…
It’s the second and third paragraphs that I like. One calls the US Progressives “reactionary”, cute that. The next paragraph notes that the FSU had a monolithic power structure that was unresponsive to the people while the USA has two teams that compete as though they were different, making up one monolithic unresponsive power structure… nice that ;-)
I think it gives you the flavor of the thing. Just don’t let the “Running Out!!!” scare part get to you. There is no shortage of resources and we never “run out” of resources.
But if you really do want to prepare for an emergency, I think it is a reasonable thing to do. Just expect that you are more likely to use your preparations for a bit of bad weather, or loss of a job, than for a full on collapse.
Or you might use them, like me, when living “on the road” for a while. ( I travel with a ‘travel kitchen’ portable stove and such, along with my minimal power and light kit, and some of the preparedness packs ).