Looks like he’s giving a guest lecture somewhere or speaking to a small group in a classroom.
14 minutes.
Then a Nobel in Physics, Dr. Giaever, calls it a pseudoscience (32 minutes):
Nice style and pretty good humor in it.
So much for the “Scientific Consensus”…
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Musings from the Chiefio 
Interesting. He has a real Nobel (unlike the many IPCC fake ones). Did the PCR DNA work. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kary_Mullis Spelt Kary Mullis.
I enjoyed Dr. Mullis’ style. I had seen Dr. Giaever’s talk before. The main take away from this is – in real science you do not seek to PROVE something. You seek to disprove it. And that is the problem with AGW. No one is trying to disprove it (at least among the faithful).
@JoNova:
Thanks, fixed the name. Something about being up at midnight about 3/4 into a “prep” for colonoscopy (in a few hours now) and not wearing my readers ;-) I thought I’d typed it right, but clearly not. FWIW, I’d noticed the spelling of the name while watching the video, but somewhere along the line the fingers fumbled. Oh Well… (Maybe something to do with having gone to the dentist that day and his name was as typed…) Yeah, I have the medical establishment going at me from both ends… Not my favorite couple of days…
@E.M. – Re. one end at least, you might at least get a laugh – OK, probably a couple of Kleenex’ worth – at “The Picolax Thread Returns”. A Scouse storyteller, in full flight, responds to a slightly-off-topic thread on an off-road cycling forum. Unforgettable.
Typo (should be mullis)? Is that:
https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/chemistry/laureates/1993/mullis-bio.html
All the best, E.M.
Ah the lovely Colonoscopy! As they say, this too shall pass.
But if you have gotten that far, the rest is a piece of cake.
Colonoscopies are easy – try a cystoscopy some time…
Per my insides:
All went well and nothing significant was found. Looks like I’m good for another 5 years. The high point was having the cutest Vietnamese nurse I’ve ever seen. The low point being that I had to be there at all, but it is done now; and as coffee was not on the list of allowed clear liquids, my sleep cycle is messed up. Fell asleep about 6 PM…woke up at 2 AM. Now drowsy at 5 AM…
I think I’ll have a coffee at 6 AM in the hope of getting back to pattern…
Maybe with 4 eggs over easy, a side of bacon, loaf of toast, and a side of 4 lbs hash browns. Oh, and 8 slices of French Toast as desert…
Hey, a fella has some catching up to do!
Believe it or not they had the audacity to give instructions that I was to only “eat lightly” yesterday post-procedure… Then listed everything good as the “avoid” list. Spicy food, rich food, “greasy” food (i.e. anything fried), and even no booze. Sheesh. What’s left? Carrot sticks?
So we had sushi. Wasabi isn’t a spice, right? It’s a root. And ginger is a root vegetable ;-)
Washed down with 2 glasses of Sake… which was when I discovered why they wanted the avoidance of booze. Normally I can drink a whole bottle of sake if I want and not have issues. Seems the residual anesthetic drug interacted with the trivial alcohol in the sake and I was ready for bed not long after dinner. Nice ride getting there, though. From woozy to happy to sleepy (and all the other dwarves ;-) Now I’ve got 3/4 of a bottle of sake left and no sushi…
Well, the sun is rising and I’ve got a big decision to make:
Go back to bed now that I’m sleepy again or put the coffee on and push for normal pattern…
I think I’ll see if a nap works…
A nap always helps…pg
4 hours later…. Yup, a nap sure does help ;-)
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By the time you “get there”, the hard part is over. I am due next year as they have me on a 3 year cycle now.
And llanfar, the colonoscopy is easy. It is the prep that is a bitch. I doubt that is required with a cystoscopy. But given the procedure, I think I will pass on it. My bladder is just fine!
philjourdan: “And llanfar, the colonoscopy is easy. It is the prep that is a bitch.”
Amen and amen. My first they found couple of polyps, which they zapped; 3 years to the next colonoscopy. Second one was clean, so back to 5 years for the next one.
a) Colon cancer is one of the most common types
2) Deadly if left untreated
iii) Detected early, it is one of the easiest to treat and most survivable
So anyone who isn’t ‘of the age’ to start getting colonoscopy screenings, do it when the Dr. says (ominously) “It’s time.”
All the shits and giggles stories are absolutely true, but it’s worth it not to die stupidly from something so easily treatable.
Pro tip: Install one of those shower heads with multiple-choice sprays in the bathroom. Get gobs of TT and flush-able wet wipes. After ameliorating most of the damage by a toilet session with TT and wet-wipes, head for the shower and aim that sprayer right on the bum. It cleans off the stomach acids that are attacking one’s tender arse and makes the inevitable next toilet session with TT and wet-wipes… tolerable. That special ultra-soft TT no longer feels like 60 grit sandpaper.
Get that acid off’n yer bum!
P.S. That Picolax thread Steve C linked to really did make me LOL. Wife had to ask what I was reading. Classic! Thanks for that one, Steve.
I was afraid this would happen on a serious thread about Global Warming as soon as I mentioned that me bum was about to volcano and I was headed for the “pipe up me arse” soonish… I just knew it would happen… the whole thread of comments turned to shit (literally, if humorously…)
It is simply not possible for “Men Of Good Will” to restrain a Good Belly Laugh at the misfortune of another. I’d complain about it, but for my willingness to indulge in it…
Yes, the Picolax thread is a hoot. I’d seen it 5 or 10 years ago (forget which ) when someone last shoved it in my face under similar “indelicate” circumstances during a prior “round”.
Per having something shoved up “Mr. Happy”: ABSOLUTELY NO, thank you. The spouse had a 0.8 cm or 8 mm “stone” removed from her ureter via some contraption or other and I still hurt from the sympathy pains! I’ll not be having something even bigger shoved up My Wife’s Best Friend, no sirreee! I’d rather die of whatever it is first… Unless tequila can can be involved… then we can negotiate… but I digress…
@H.R.:
NOW you tell me about the benefits of the shower! Now, when it’s all behind me… well and gone…
@Phil:
Well, just FYI, it would seem that I have a bit slower “digestion” than most, so I was sill “passing a bit of blowby” as I arrived at the hospital. Some “brownish liquid” being deposited in the loo just prior to be wheeled off to my demise…
Herr Dr. (a Chinese guy…) sat at a computer terminal while an “assistant” sent the snake up my {redacted} yet even then, I was able to watch him hit some button that “washed” areas that were not as clean as he liked…
Now you might think that since he was able to do EVERYTHING desired, including removing 2 snips and moving on… that this was all FINE. Well NOOOoooo… My discharge papers are marked with “2 DAY PREP” for next time. Not just ONE day of fasting and OMG sludge consumption with “projectile seating” but TWO WHOLE DAYS of it, prior to the day of “arrival”…
Maybe I can change medical providers before then…
@H.R.:
First off, I’m not fond of lists.
i) They are simplistic.
b) Folks think they are systematic when they are really just stream of consciousness
3) Nobody can properly keep the enumeration system consistent!
;-)
@E.M.: COL (Chortling Out Loud)
About to turn in for the night after an amazing (and amazingly long) day at a Trump Rally. I’ll turn in my assigned homework report tomorrow on the W.O.O.D. thread.
Having had one of these earlier this year, I concur. The prep is much rougher than the procedure. Indeed, I’ve had a few without anesthesia, but now-a-days, they don’t give you that option. A really good gastroenterologist *can* perform the procedure well enough that you can undergo it without anesthesia. Good luck finding one now. Oh well.
Now, I’ve had quite a few of these since 1997, when I had my first one (it really has been 20 years … oh my). The preps have mostly gotten better. Still, two day prep? Yikes. Miralax for the win.
Oh, cystoscopy. You see, not only do I have ulcerative colitis, I have kidney stones as a consequence of taking sulfasalazine for a bit over 20 years. The kidney stones started in 2010, aggravated by a job that I took that involved working in a warm environment and getting subtly dehydrated. So yeah, I’ve had that done, too. The pain from the kidney stone was much worse. Rare it is that I needed morphine for pain, but that day …. unable to sit, walk, sleep or drive from the stone, morphine was a Godsend. I still don’t like intoxication, though.
I still pass stones to this day, but they’re small. It hurts when they pass, but that’s very temporary compared to the pain when they don’t.
From J. Curry’s blog a commenter, Ragnaar, with a linked video shows (HERE), chaos is not amenable to reductionists’ methods — like the IPCC lack of mathematical ability is the driving force of cAGW, their reductionist ideal of measurement just having noise, and that noise is reduced by averaging is profoundly wrong.
As Ragnaar says “The punchline is, variability or noise, is the system. To lead everything with CO2 plus noise isn’t understanding the system. ” [my bold]
This means that there is no simple noise reduction method that will not distort the analysis of the (climate) system. There can never be enough measured accuracy or precision to which all climate processes and parameters are subjected to and be able to elucidate any highly accurate long term predictability. All those IPCC figures of confidence are just unverified nonsense.
We can at best only infer probabilities for future events but then only when ALL the climate processes (terrestrial and extraterrestrial) are accurately understood, and all measurements are done to the very highest accuracy — no fudge factors and no approximation! For as inaccuracies creep in then the loci of the calculated probabilities (within a chaotic system) will drift away from the actuality, away from what will really happen.
@tom0mason:
Absolutely!
IMHO, we have a climate system with 2 more or less stable states. Frozen, as water exits the process then; and “hot with thunderstorms” as convective water vapor flows damp the upward motions.
In between those two is metastable and mildly chaotic. Like now. We are presently warm, and have been getting warmer since about 1850. But we were plunging into cold until 1850. What changed? Not much…
Insolation is in the metastable range. We are below the level that will melt snow and ice above 60 N with a reliable result. At any time we could have another event like the Little Ice Age and we might, or might not, recover from it. Similarly, at any time we can have ice retreating at the margins and continuing to do so until some random cold blip stops it. Like right now.
Then there are all the feedback systems going on. Some positive and some negative. What’s the net balance between them? Variable…
So Thunderstorms are a negative feedback (as are hurricanes on a larger scale) to warming. Thing warm up, we get more storms, so more cloud cover and more convective / condensation moving heat off the surface and cooling things. Ice is a positive feedback to the cold side. More ice whiter surface, less absorbed radiation, more cooling… EXCEPT at the North Pole where less sea ice lets more effective radiation to space cool the Arctic Ocean. So what is the net balance of feedback from ice? Positive or negative? It is variable…
Then you get into interactions… The more precipitation the more plants grow and the more they cool the surface, but they transpire more water vapor to cause more precipitation. Cut the trees, you get hotter, let them grow, you stabilize at cooler (deciduous trees have been shown to self regulate toward an 86 F canopy temperature via transpiration control). So it gets hotter and rains more and then more trees grow and it gets cooler, to a point… And, when too lacking in plants, the dust blows into the ocean and fertilizes it and more things change.
All those moving cycles in cycles and competing feedbacks with various (and variable) time lags. Sure, just try to convince me you can model that correctly… Just try…
FWIW, I saw a presentation at the Chicago conference some years back where a researcher showed that the temperatures in the equatorial water of the Pacific slowly worked their way up to the Arctic, in bands, taking 18 years to get there… So the Arctic, right now, is reflecting the temperatures in the Tropics in 2000 – i.e. warm and ice melting… except just about now the cooling trend from 2001 onward will start hitting the Arctic and that ice will build back in. Just what is the interaction of that Arctic ice with Tropical temps? Nobody knows… It may be part of the oscillation between the two poles that also takes place. So we also get to figure in a few oscillators with various time constants…
The idea that so complex a system, where we can’t even list all the variables and interactions, can be accurately modeled at all, then the next great leap to saying it can be done accurately when in a metastable state; it is just madness and hubris.
2 day prep? I will say a novena for you!
What if the Earth does not have a climate system, but instead, has a weather system? /semi sarc
@CDQuarles:
Other than creating the definition of climate as being an artificial average of weather over time; I’m not sure what the real difference between them would be… just size? Duration?
I’m guessing duration, as in an integration. There’s no tomorrow, if I don’t survive today. There’s no today, if I don’t survive this hour.
Nevertheless, climate, as integrated weather, is local just like the weather is local. Plus, as you expand the area covered, your inherent uncertainty must increase, simply because uncorrelated effects have to be included, given the variability in local conditions. They call these situations microclimates, these days.
The whole thing is a damped-driven system, governed by actual incoming solar variability, plus local effects due to differing local heat generation and ‘heat capacity’; of which biological organisms, of all kinds, modify to enhance their own survival.