POTUS has declared a National Emergency:
.
EU Bites it – Oh Globalism…
Despite a full lock down (IMHO a bit too late), Italy has crossed the 1000 dead mark. That makes it 1/5 of all deaths reported to date. China is sending them some equipment and doctors.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Confirmed Cases and Deaths by Country, Territory, or Conveyance
The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 137 countries and territories around the world and 1 international conveyance (the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan). The day is reset after midnight GMT+0.
Country Total New Deaths +Deaths Recovered Active Critical Per_1M China 80,815 +1 3,177 64,152 13,486 4,020 56.1 Italy 17,660 +2,547 1,266 +250 1,439 14,955 1,328 292.1 Iran 11,364 +1,289 514 +85 3,529 7,321 135.3 S.Korea 7,979 +110 71 +5 510 7,398 93 155.6 Spain 5,232 +2,086 133 +47 193 4,906 190 111.9 Germany 3,675 +930 8 +2 46 3,621 9 43.9 France 3,661 +785 79 +18 12 3,570 154 56.1 USA 2,269 +572 48 +7 31 2,190 10 6.9 Switz. 1,139 +271 11 +4 4 1,124 131.6 Norway 995 +195 1 1 993 27 183.5 Sweden 814 +127 1 1 812 2 80.6 Nether. 804 +190 10 +5 2 792 1 46.9 Denmark 801 +127 1 800 2 138.3 UK 798 +208 11 +1 18 769 20 11.8 Japan 701 +10 19 118 564 29
The BBC has Ursula Von der Leyen saying “Travel bans do not work”. True, if you don’t do them or wait months… Or does she think the virus has feet, wings, or can swim the ocean? It only moves across distances in people or on objects so stop moving the people around and disinfect the objects.
Drugs that help? An idea…
A few drugs that act to let zink into the cell, where it can block the virus replication, include Chloroquine, an old anti-malarial.
Chloroquine is a medication used to prevent and to treat malaria in areas where malaria is known to be sensitive to its effects. Certain types of malaria, resistant strains, and complicated cases typically require different or additional medication. It is also occasionally used for amebiasis that is occurring outside the intestines, rheumatoid arthritis, and lupus erythematosus. It is taken by mouth.
Chloroquine
There is an entire category of drugs based on the same core, aminoquinoline, and IMHO, they need testing and evaluation pronto:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/4-Aminoquinoline
4-Aminoquinoline is a form of aminoquinoline with the amino group at the 4-position of the quinoline. The compound has been used as a precursor for the synthesis of its derivatives.
A variety of derivatives of 4-aminoquinoline are antimalarial agents useful in treating erythrocytic plasmodial infections. Examples include amodiaquine, chloroquine, and hydroxychloroquine. Other uses for the derivatives are: anti-asthmatic, antibacterial, anti-fungal, anti-malarial, antiviral and anti-inflammatory agents.
Another such drug is Quercetin. Also found in some foods and sold over the counter in health food stores. It takes a lot and likely isn’t the best, but is available widely.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quercetin
Quercetin
Quercetin is a plant flavonol from the flavonoid group of polyphenols. It is found in many fruits, vegetables, leaves, seeds, and grains; red onions and kale are common foods containing appreciable content of quercetin. Quercetin has a bitter flavor and is used as an ingredient in dietary supplements, beverages, and foods.
The wiki goes on to say no-way it is useful for treating any disease, but… we don’t trust Wiki, now do we:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4728566/
Viruses. 2016 Jan; 8(1): 6.
Published online 2015 Dec 25. doi: 10.3390/v8010006
PMCID: PMC4728566
PMID: 26712783
Quercetin as an Antiviral Agent Inhibits Influenza A Virus (IAV) EntryWenjiao Wu,1 Richan Li,1 Xianglian Li,1 Jian He,1 Shibo Jiang,2,3 Shuwen Liu,1,* and Jie Yang1,2,*
Curt Hagedorn, Academic Editor
Author information Article notes Copyright and License information Disclaimer
This article has been cited by other articles in PMC.Abstract
Influenza A viruses (IAVs) cause seasonal pandemics and epidemics with high morbidity and mortality, which calls for effective anti-IAV agents. The glycoprotein hemagglutinin of influenza virus plays a crucial role in the initial stage of virus infection, making it a potential target for anti-influenza therapeutics development. Here we found that quercetin inhibited influenza infection with a wide spectrum of strains, including A/Puerto Rico/8/34 (H1N1), A/FM-1/47/1 (H1N1), and A/Aichi/2/68 (H3N2) with half maximal inhibitory concentration (IC50) of 7.756 ± 1.097, 6.225 ± 0.467, and 2.738 ± 1.931 μg/mL, respectively. Mechanism studies identified that quercetin showed interaction with the HA2 subunit. Moreover, quercetin could inhibit the entry of the H5N1 virus using the pseudovirus-based drug screening system. This study indicates that quercetin showing inhibitory activity in the early stage of influenza infection provides a future therapeutic option to develop effective, safe and affordable natural products for the treatment and prophylaxis of IAV infections.Keywords: entry inhibitor, hemagglutinin, influenza A virus, quercetin
So looks like those kale eaters and lovers of red onions are on to something.
Looking at the two molecules, they are similar (Couple of joined rings, substituted, and a dangly bit off the top). Then the names and “old antimalarial” got me thinking about quinine. Might it be antiviral? You can get modest doses in Tonic Water at the grocery store. FWIW, I like Schweppes the best ;-)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quinine
Quinine
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0168170218302375
Virus Research
Volume 255, 15 August 2018, Pages 171-178Virus Research
Drug repurposing of quinine as antiviral against dengue virus infection
Abstract
Dengue virus (DENV) disease outbreaks continue to develop across the globe with significant associated mortality and economic burden, yet no treatment has been approved to combat this virus. In an attempt to identify novel drug candidates as therapeutics for DENV infection, we evaluated four US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved drugs including aminolevullic acid, azelaic acid, mitoxantrone hydrochloride, and quinine sulfate, and tested their ability to inhibit DENV replication using focus-forming unit assay to quantify virus production. Of the four investigated compounds, quinine was found to have the most pronounced anti-DENV activity. Quinine inhibited DENV production of DENV by about 80% compared to untreated controls, while the other three drugs decreased virus production by only about 50%. Moreover, quinine inhibited DENV production of all four serotypes of DENV. Reduction in virus production was documented in three different cell lines of human origin. Quinine significantly inhibited DENV replication by reducing DENV RNA and viral protein synthesis in a dose-dependent manner. In addition, quinine ameliorated expression of genes related to innate immune response. These findings suggest the efficacy of quinine for stimulating antiviral genes to reduce DENV replication. The antiviral activity of quinine observed in this study may have applicability in the development of new drug therapies against DENV
Yes, not Covid-19, but has potential.
I think Gin & Tonic will be making a comeback, and for now is my drink of choice. Just wish I’d bought some before buttoning up…
Do note that quinine at large theraputic doses can have significant side effects and overdose can cause deafness and even death, so stick to modest beverage levels.
Prior postings in the category: Covid
Musings from the Chiefio 
“Hayward: China Threatens to Cut Off Medicine, Throw America into ‘Mighty Sea of Coronavirus’”
https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/03/13/hayward-china-threatens-to-cut-off-medicine-throw-america-into-mighty-sea-of-coronavirus/
What better way to highlight for the not already convinced what Trump means by “bringing manufacturing back to US”
E.M.
FYI. Might be useful. I got sent this in an email, haven’t had time to look at them.
“Possible COVID-19 treatment explained
Full randomised trial is still needed but looking very promising and uses existing, cheap, and in large supply drugs.
John McC – you will see within the second video the rationale for zinc in some cancer treatments. You will also see why Zinc supplements doled out by alternative medicine types cannot work.
DPeterson responded about Larry L. Here:
I am still awaiting my presidential phone alert on the national emergency declaration. Doh!
In the mean time, I was very encouraged with what I heard this afternoon on supplanting antiquated processes at a Fed and state levels with new methods to address, help, and relieve regulations that constipate everything.
We will overcome.
Data from Pig’s Ear Johns Hopkins Dashboard.
The formula uses counts: ((current – day 0) * 100)/day 0.
So, 100% is a doubling. Day 0 = 3/6/2020.
Country, lat/long, total current cases, % increase
Thailand (lat/long) 13.736717/100.523186, 75, 56%
Vietnam 14.3/108.3, 47. 194%
Singapore 1.3/103.8, 200, 70%
Malaysia 3.5/ 101.5, 197, 137%
UK 51.50/-0.1, 801, 590%
US 39.3/-97.9, 2028, 770%
Switzerland 46.8/8.2, 1139, 725%
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031815v1
“Estimating the generation interval for COVID-19 based on symptom onset data”
Yes you can catch it from those who do not know they have it. Big time.
I saw a report on virus shedding. Peak is at about first symptom onset and s few days before and after … so if diagnised with symptoms, about 10 days later you are not shedding enough virus to worry (r it is antibody coated and inactivated).
So pretty much by definition, only testing people with symptoms misses half the spreading infected.
A million test kits by Friday turns out to be 10K to 15K tests a day for a while.
Mot to worry.
There is a new plan.
==
Books will be written about this failure.
The President is either lying or misinformed. My opinion is lying. At least from the way he delivers messages on this subject. He doesn’t do it near as well (lying) as Obama.
Near as I can sort it, the million test kits were shipped. “Nose swab in a bottle” like things.
What it looks like CDC didn’t tell POTUS was that they had to manually processes each one and they were limited in capacity to a few hundred a day… and CDC was continuing the “advice” to limit testing to confirming folks after hospitalization. An attempt to hit the checkmark but avoid admitting the practical failure.
When folks continued complaints about lack of testing,,. “uncomfortable questions were asked” and Pence or POTUS punted the workload to commercial labs with their automated machine processing. Now it is getting done, even if a month late.
“USA 2,340 +93 ”
We’ve crashed through 2000 from a few hundred in just a few days. Given not every test is positive as often other diseases are involved, that’s a lot more completed tests. I expect this will continue exponential growth for a while.
Whose fault? As with most failures, it is a series of things. Watching the players in public pressers, I think the CDC Hubis was large, FDA Obstinance high, and the inertia of Government Agencies to change huge. Then, Trump having little medical background, was overly impressed by M.D. credentials and just let them tell him what to do (mostly let them run things). Thus the (eventual) Pense driven task force, catching clue that shipping a “test” is not the same as completed processing, and the latest announcement of a bucket of regulatory burden scrapped along with all sorts of other labs permitted to do testing. Bypassing CDC limits and setting aside FDA obstuction.
@E.M. – What you described is President Trump’s lack of patience and disdain for bureaucratic B.S.
“This is the way we always do it,” with all the right forms filled out after each step and reviewed by the appropriate supervisor and then the supervisor’s boss for anything that needs a CYA before it moves to the next step. “What?!? We’re supposed to see if it even works or is efficient and effective? Are you crazy?!? That’s not my job!”
When you have the mindset of a bureaucrat drone, whose job it is to move one pile of papers to another pile, all while adding no value to the process, well it’s no wonder they have TDS. Trump is threatening their meaningless non-value adding jobs! In many of their minds, it is more important to check the right boxes and get the right signatures than to even be aware of what the task at hand is really supposed to accomplish. So, Trump must be crazy because he wants to bypass the B.S., “and my B.S. is very important.”
A bureaucracy grows because more and more people are needed to get less and less done while making sure it’s nobody’s fault when nothing gets done.
@E.M. The CDC was causing more than just bureaucratic delays, it was acting as a ‘closed shop’ and telling states NOT to carry out testing in their own right.
https://freethoughtblogs.com/pharyngula/2020/03/11/stop-testing/
This is (should be) contrary to the Enumerated Powers vested in the federal authorities. Perhaps it is time to revisit them. Testing for disease cannot be covered by the “commerce clause”.
Well, the testing is certainly exponential.
On our last trip to Costco my wife notice that their checkout process is very unhealthy. The cashier takes every single person’s card, inserts it and hands it back. So that he or her, in affect shakes hand with everyperson, and everybody in line shakes hands with everybody that proceeded them.
@another Ian ;-) and E.M.
It looks like Gin and Tonic may have a glancing effect as chloroquine opens a channel through the cell membrane and delivers zinc into the cell that interferes with the transcription of the virus RNA.
See the second video (a good discussion) and this
“Chloroquine might be getting new life as an antiviral treatment for the novel coronavirus that emerged in Wuhan, China in late 2019 and has infected some 25,000 people in more than 25 countries. For decades, the drug was a front-line treatment and prophylactic for malaria.
In a three-page paper published Tuesday in Cell Research, scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s State Key Laboratory of Virology write that both chloroquine and the antiviral remdesivir were, individually, “highly effective” at inhibiting replication of the novel coronavirus in cell culture. Their drug screen evaluated five other drugs that were not effective. The authors could not be reached for comment.”
https://www.asbmb.org/asbmb-today/science/020620/could-an-old-malaria-drug-help-fight-the-new-coron
Interesting
The perfect preventative has been discovered :-)
https://nypost.com/2020/03/13/italian-man-wears-giant-circle-prop-to-keep-coronavirus-at-bay/
@ EM.
Yes, that sounds right. For most viral infections, you start becoming infectious before you get symptoms, even if you get symptoms. Many symptoms of infectious disease isn’t from the infection as much as it is from the tissue damage and immune response (which is why they are *so non* specific).
In today’s Task Force presser, one M.D. said they are having similar test results as the Italians with something like 99% negative. That there is a lot of OTHER respiratory illness causing symptoms.
The implies that for our aprx. 2500 confirmed cases, they had to do 25,000 tests minimum. As some folks get multiple tests, that could easily be 50k to 100k.
Time to read:
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
As a society, we have panicked and set in motion a period of frantic activity.
Most of this activity is wrongheaded. Serious disruptions, too numerous to list, are underway.
There is no reverse.
There is always an emotional need to “do something”. Panic is doing something nonproductive. It would be better if leadership advised us on donating plasma, rolling bandages, or whatever comparable contributions might be for illness rather than injury.
We have joked about distilling home brew hooch to make ersatz hand sanitizer. But is there a real recipe mire practical? Other household products usefully repurposed , i dunno toilet bowl cleaner or denture pellets? Does ordinary bar soap in water soaked into a ziplock bag of paper dinner napkins help with wiping down countertops and dinner tables? What products can be produced in mass quantities at home with household supplies to aid the professional effort against this plague?
Here is a good article. I came to it because of Chart 23. Chart 7 is also interesting. “What this means is that the orange bars show you what authorities knew, and the grey ones what was really happening.” And Chart 8, for the rest of China. And so on. “have you wondered why Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand or Hong Kong haven’t? […] All of them were hit by SARS in 2003, and all of them learned from it. They learned how viral and lethal it could be, so they knew to take it seriously.”
View at Medium.com
“Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now”
Saw one of these today. Several of the hospitals here have them. For small investment of 87k, you can have one too!
Re HR
“A bureaucracy grows because more and more people are needed to get less and less done while making sure it’s nobody’s fault when nothing gets done.”
Have you ever read
C. Northcote Parkinson “Parkinson;s Law or the pursuit of progress” 1958
“The Math Of Epidemics”
@Pouncer says: 14 March 2020 at 7:33 pm
If you live in a sunny clime, just put up some clothe lines and dry your stuff in the Sun.
@Another Ian – “Work expands to fill the time available.”
I’ve worked in manufacturing all my life. That principle is known by just about everyone in manufacturing from the janitor to the CEO. Good management, particularly good first-line supervisors are very good at getting a day’s work (standard or better output) for a day’s pay.
Even more interesting is the observation that you don’t get 1.5 times the output when you pay time-and-a-half for overtime. The interesting thing about that is that you rarely get 1 x normal output for overtime. You pay more and get less.
That’s the private sector. The public sector doesn’t work that way because there is rarely, and more typically, zero penalty if the work doesn’t get done. Supervisors and up are perversely rewarded with increased head count if the work isn’t getting done. And after head count is increased beyond a certain point, another supervisor position needs to be created, thus rewarding one of the schmoes that caused the problem with a promotion.
Parkinson’s Law for the public sector should be reworded as “Head count expands to fail to complete the work available.”
Travis on JoNova posted this link : https://www.covid19data.com.au/
Yes it’s just the Australian figures . But I suggest it is a “Good to bookmark” folks ! )
Reading through it something emerges which is surprising but mot unexpected:
Australia has had 20 people fly in from the USA infected with the virus And the USA is top on the list ! Two of them were famous film stars coming to work here in Oz. One of them was our minister for Home Affairs. Peter Dutton, who went to the USA for a 5 Eyes conference in Washington.And tested positive when he got back.
The next are Italy with 17 coming to Australia.
Iran with 17 infected people flying to Australia
China runs fourth with just 15 infected persons coming to Australia
Other countries are less than double figures…
Curiously we in Australia have quarantine controls on people arriving from Italy, Iran & China & South Korea.
But NONE for people coming from the USA !
Our beloved dopey pollies hard at work no doubt !
Utterly bloody stupid PM Morrison !
Of course this number ( 20 ) for people flying in from the USA ( Australian & US & other nationalities ) probably reflects 1: the actual situation in the USA; 2: reflects the extent of the CDC’s major stuff up in the USA and 3: explains why we have no quarantine rules for people flying in from the USA.
Looking at “Travel-related transmissions over time” Chart in the above link, I have just realised that all 20 of the infected people who flew into Australia from the USA, did so in the past 10 days. ..Since March 6th.
That tells me that the COVID disease was spreading unchecked in some parts of the USA before that date. At a guess California & New York ?
I wonder how that fits with the data available in the USA ?
There were no Covid-19 infected people in the US so none were tested because there were no infected people because there were no positive test results from the none tests.
With the new Government testing requiem, they may find that the infection is already wide spread in the US. Real data should be available by the end of this week.
I plan on infection being inevitable so survival is the next best option, This hysteria to prevent infection will prove to be worse for the Country then the disease it’self .
PG, this is indeed already widespread. Considering 92% of those active cases are mild, you can be many others ignored their sniffles and slight cough and continued to infect. The hysteria just provides more opportunity to infect as you state.
Stay away from crowds, do what is prescribed to reduce self inflicted damage and we move on. Lowering the curve is what the recent cancellation of large events will help with. I just don’t get the under 250 people level event being acceptable item I have seen. That just doesn’t make sense based on potential exponential impact within days of such exposure in a positive infection environment.
Net-net, from data I have viewed on the S Korean testing, and supported from news conferences by our officials in charge, about <4% of those tested (+- 250,000) who exhibited symptoms, tested positive for Covid-19 there. That exposed the other influencing viral respiratory factors in play. 96% of them anyhow.
What is not a good thing is having those who don't typically show symptoms to any degree that make them seek medical help, the young college students, now on spring break in mass in Florida etc. that will swap spit, drinks, and such and take that exposure home in the next week. Just sayin,
I fully expect we will have travel restrictions inside the US soon. Similar to what we saw in NY to some degree. But hey, I am just a concerned casual observer here at this point.
I think you need to adjust the raw number of infected arrivals for total number in transit. Also point of origin. The middle of the USA has near none. The “well connected” of NYC, Silicon Valley, and Redmond / Seatle have lots.
About 3/4 of the Seattle area deaths are from one facility of the old and sick.
How it got there has not been made public — if known.
Deaths in a month had to spike above 7 (average) before they realized an issue.
Normal comings and goings from the place until the problem was recognized.
As of this Friday, Washington accounts for 37 of the 50 USA deaths.
Most gatherings in the State are now gone. Schools, sports, libraries, … a long list.
Late next week the number of new cases, and deaths, will slow — or already are.
So, excluding those who are currently not tested globally. What we have is near same stat for death rate and severe or critical status when looking at the closed and active case rates basic info.
I am not trying to toss out alarm, but my question would be how to ID those with matching characteristics for faster critical response if the critical stats keep matching the bad stats. That is not a good correlation IIRC.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
At a granular level with what we have, is all we have. I think, once again, we will gain clarity in reanalysis once all the data is available.
Ok, let me ask in a follow up on my prior message. What percent of people who have to be Intubated or other, survive? Then ask what demographic is involved.
Italy, as an example, was documented as having 23% of their population being over 65. Look where the stand on total cases as of tonight. I don’t think they had double digit cases 2 weeks ago. Now, this is where you could evaluate cultural habits and histories. Hey, I am Italian.
China 80,844
Italy 21,157
Iran 12,729
Here, my evidence from what we have to date.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
UPDATE : All arrivals in Australia from midnight AET
Have to self quarantine for 14 days.
That includes Australians, permanent residents and foreigners.
No exceptions.
Also no public gatherings of more than 500 people. ( Why 500 ? )
But schools & colleges here will still be operating.
Meanwhile ordinary people are stocking up.
We just went & did a small top up shop
The supermarket was packed on a Sunday morning !
@Ossqss:
There is a large ramp in mortality with age, and a big comorbidity kicker. Old folks with circulatory or breathing problems the biggest hit, I think, with diabetes, kidney, and other issues adding.
@Bil In Oz:
I think LAX and SFO are big aggregator airports for flights to Australia. We had a TSA Agent at LAX test positive. So how many folks headed to Australia handed them their ID ticket et al, then got them back…
Now there are a lot of gates at LAX, and I don’t know what area they worked: but were I looking for a place to get exposed at under 2 m and with shared touch surfaces…
That makes sense E M ! And of course everyone has to put their hand luggage through screening via the conveyer belts. I wonder if hand luggage got contaminated in this process ?
And here is an interesting comment on JoNova, from an Aussie named lank, in Bangkok about how they are ensuring this virus is stopped:
“Readers may be interested that CORONAVIRUS measures in downtown Bangkok are taken very seriously. It is easy to avoid crowds here because there are few. Markets, restaurants and shops are almost empty. Hand sanitiser is available at entry to all shops and hotels and escalators at shopping centres are being cleaned with alcohol based cleaners continuously. At the hotel I’m at, hand sanitisor is placed at each lift and lounge door and each lift consol is cleaned hourly. In breakfast/dining areas every visitor is required to hand sanitise before entry. In public places about 80% wear masks. I have my own but most foreigners are unable to buy them as they are in short supply and sold out of pharmacies. ”
Intersting perspective !
A suggestion for one of the next moves:_
Unban single use plastic bags!
“Greening Our Way to Infection
The ban on single-use plastic grocery bags is unsanitary—and it comes at the worst imaginable time.”
https://www.city-journal.org/banning-single-use-plastic-bags-covid-19
Via SDA
E.M.Smith says:
14 March 2020 at 1:06 pm
Thanks for that. I’m still recovering from surgery and can’t put in as much time as I would like.
E.M.Smith says:
14 March 2020 at 5:37 pm
The “average” rate of positives is 2% to 4% of tests. According to some guy on a show I watched a day or two ago.
Nancy & John Hultquist says:
14 March 2020 at 6:42 pm
Saw a report on the TV that Boston hospitals are at the point of overload. Post overload to recovery the death rate goes way up.
You might want to read this about the 1918 flu.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-cancel-everything/607675/
Those that “overreacted” saved lives.
p.g.sharrow says:
15 March 2020 at 2:16 am
The “hysteria” to prevent infection is to prevent or reduce hospital overload. That reduces the death rate.
The virus is being weaponized.
US State Department summons Chinese Ambassador Cui Tiankai amid anger over Beijing coronavirus comments
Diplomat David Stilwell delivers a ‘stern representation’ of the US government’s position to Cui Tiankai
Meeting in Washington follows Chinese foreign ministry spokesman’s insinuation that the US military brought the coronavirus to China
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3075193/us-summoning-chinese-ambassador-over-beijing-coronavirus-comments
US mistakes helped coronavirus spread ‘beyond nation’s ability to detect it’, public health experts warn
Report in Journal of American Medical Association says limits on number of people tested and problems with equipment hampered fight against Covid-19
White House has been on the defensive over its handling of the epidemic after accusing China of leaving it ‘behind the curve’
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074742/us-mistakes-helped-coronavirus-spread-beyond-nations-ability
Italy now over 21k cases and 1441 deaths, closing in on 1/2 of China fatalities.
USA has just crossed 3000 cases. This is faster than my estimate that had our hospital saturation on April 14:
It estimated 2000 on March 17 so either it is moving faster, or testing is finally showing the true case load, or both.
So make that about 3 weeks to hospital saturation…
Hopefully the spike is an artifact of testing: AND hopefully recent changes of behaviour will shrink R0.
We’ll know in about a week..
Empty Shelves? – Understanding Supply Chains, Logistics, and Recovery Efforts…
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/03/14/empty-shelves-understanding-supply-chains-logistics-and-recovery-efforts/#more-186379
Just moving the stock from the trucks to the shelves is going to be an undertaking. I was a stockboy in my Dad’s store when I was a kid. It is a lot of work. Worlk = Ft.
Nancy and John, consider each state a seperate nation. While strong controls will eventually turn the steep portion of a graph, it is just ramping up elsewhere.
Unfortunately the US is just beginning, and Tests are far behind cases.
A question about triage cut-offs.
When I look at the median daily increase in cases of many of the Euro countries, plus USA and
Australia, the numbers are running about 20+%.
When saturation hits what will be the triage cut-offs?
What I have been told is that 60+ yo will be the first cut. I was surprised that the number was that low. On further reflection it seems to me that after SHTF the number will be much lower.
In other news.
Trump Takes Out Top Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ Commander in Iraq – General Siamand Mashhadani Killed in US Strike
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/he-did-it-again-trump-takes-out-top-iranian-revolutionary-guards-commander-in-iraq-general-siamand-mashhadani-killed-in-us-strike/
E.M.Smith [said] 15 March 2020 at 12:44 pm:
So make that about 3 weeks to hospital saturation.
Aha! So make that April 5, when Palm Sunday begins the Western-Christian Holy Week.
For a “more diverse” religious perspective:
• Passover spans April 8–16; and
• Ramadan spans April 23–May 23 (Ramadan is observed according to a fully lunar calendar, so it has no tie to the solar calendar of Western Civilization, and rotates thro’ the solar seasons).
A U.S. TSA worker has tested positive for CoV-19 at Orlando International Airport (MCO) as of Saturday [*]:
MCO reportedly handles the #1 volume of tourism passengers, and is in the top-10 in overall passenger volume, for air travel in the U.S.A.
I hope the feds don’t overlook screening at the deceptively named “Sanford-Orlando” International Airport (SFB), 20 mi. north of Orlando, which could be considered a back door to Central Florida. It’s extensively used, e.g., by British tourists.
The snowbirds should be on their ways back North (my intended phrasing “well on their ways” might be at odds with their situations).
Meanwhile, Spring Break continues [#]. I’m guessing that car-pooling remains the dominant form of transportation. The cost of air travel has really dropped since my student days, but I’d be surprised if even the airlines’ sardine-style seating is within the means of the “average” student. Sooo, separation by 1–2 m., you say? Uh, huh.
——-
Note *: Roger Simmons: “TSA worker at Orlando International Airport tests positive for COVID-19”. Orlando Sentinel, Mar 14, 2020 · 10:48 PM.
<https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/os-ne-health-coronavirus-oia-20200315-en2jsxrvt5gwfdxkolva5qvzqi-story.html>.
Note #: Been there, done that, commented on that: 5 March 2020 at 7:00 pm [GMT] (1½ weeks ago). <https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/03/04/4-march-2020-covid-19-italy-closing-schools-india-keeping-drugs/#comment-126149>.
Well, I may be finding out if the WuFlu has hit our family.
My life-long bachelor brother-in-law is retired. His only interest is NASCAR and he likes to attend any of the races within a couple of days driving distance. He like cars and if he could, and had the room, he’d have one of just about every type.
He got bored after a year or so of retirement and found a part-time job at Enterprise car rentals. When the cars come in, he drives them to the back, washes them and cleans the interiors. When someone has reserved a car or walks in for one, he drives it up close to the front doors to be ready for the customer. It’s a great job for a car-lover.
I was supposed to help him with his on-the-fritz water heater today (Sunday, 3/15). He called me and said not to come down because he was “coming down with a cold or something” and didn’t want me to get it.
He’s not at the airport location, but he’s still exposed to the interior of cars which have been driven by a lot of people. I’d say he is at increased odds of exposure to CoVid-19. He doesn’t travel, but he’s exposed to the bugs of people who have traveled who knows where before renting a car.
So, he either has a common cold, has the regular ol’ seasonal flu, or he has CoVid-19.
He’s aware enough of the need to self quarantine to protect us, but we shall be checking in on him by phone to see if he gets sicker and is having respiratory problems.
Unfortunately, he’s a ‘tough guy’ when it comes to illness. Most years, he had perfect attendance at the job he retired from. It may be hard to get him to see a doctor and request testing and he may try to tough it out at work.
I’m hoping he will get hit hard enough that we can convince him to see a doctor. At a minimum, we’ll try to get him to call into work and ask what they want him to do. If he won’t call into work, we may have to call them ourselves and ask them to take precautions. Whatever he has – cold, flu, or WuFlu – he will be exposing the office and every customer who rents a car from that location to the bug that has hit him.
He’s 64 and has Type II diabetes, so he bears watching.
M Simon @ 11:58
Boston overload.
Latest I found was Massachusetts: 123 cases; Boston 29
Deaths, none reported.
Boston is a major medical center. Explain?
I can’t find any indication on line that Boston hospitals are overwhelmed. At one hospital, a hospital working got corona virus, though.
For those that die, “pneumonia often delivers the fatal blow.”
And we have gotten shots for this, but . . .
Apparently, pneumonias are not all the same. Philadelphia Inquirer
@Tony Hansen:
There are not that many folks 70+ years old, and it decreases by year. So 60 is likely what it takes to meet the triage level. After that, I think comorbidities will dominate. So a 20 something with AIDS gets skipped for the 50 something good health nurse you desperatly need healthy soon. The 30 something with operable melanoma cancer and 30% odds of survival skipped for the 60 YO M.D. in good health or the 35 YO healthy womens basketball coach with 3 kids.
Basically, the triage nurse or doctor looks at total probable years of quality of life and sorts highest to lowest, and fills the beds.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/four-notes-on-covid-19.php
Here’s a website that I find very useful for tracking the virus:
http://www.arcgis.com
Here’s a website I find useful for tracking the spread of the virus:
http://www.arcgis.com
E.M.Smith [said] 15 March 2020 at 7:40 pm [GMT]:
Basically, the triage nurse or doctor looks at total probable years of quality of life and sorts highest to lowest, and fills the beds.
Yes, so admit the “desperat[e]ly need[ed] healthy” senior nurses, despite health flaws that might be ordinary for their [×] seniority.
Meanwhile, I’m also nearing my 3-score-&-10 [#], and because of a new condition added to a precondition, I should expect not to make the triage cut. So I need to assign a high priority to making sure that my collection of family-history records can be located by the right family members in my home, whose condensed clutter might put “Chaos Manor” [†] to shame.
——-
Note [×]: “Her”? How dare you!? Call me sexist, but I seriously doubt that there are many male nurses who’ve reached or passed age 60, because until rather recent decades, nursing was not accepted as a career appropriate for men, at least in U.S. places not dominated by the culture of really major near-by cities.
Note #: I hate spelling out numbers that can quite satisfactorily be rendered with digits, thus occupying far fewer characters.
Note †: “Chaos Manor” is the name given to the large home, in which every horizontal surface supported stacks of stuff, of Jerry Pournelle. Altho’ prominent as a writer of science fiction, he gained compugeek popularity as a columnist for BYTE, regrettably departed as of 2017 (aged 84). <>.
@Serioso:
As that site seems to require a paid subscription:
How is your comment distinguishable from a spam advert.?
@EMS — That’s very strange. When I first went to this site there was no paywall. Now there is. Very sad. I’m sorry.
Maybe try this???
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
@Serioso:
Ah, that one works. Interesting. That’s the John’s Hopkins dashboard I’ve seen before… but never tried the top level qualifier, so I, too, never saw the pay to play advert. Interesting approach. J. H. Can make a system with pub access, but overall site blocked to only customers.
Kind of like wordpress. You can enter a blog, but TLD is WordPress advert…
I retract my snippy comment about spam.
please dig me out of the spam bucket
@Clipe:
Done. Don’t see anything in there that’s a known trigger.
I agree that chloroquine as prophylactic ought to be tested, likely in the severely exposed medical staff.
Italy has just added as many cases in one day as the total confirmed in the USA to date:
And the USA is over 3k.
Given that we have:
““Chloroquine can both both prevent and treat malaria. Chloroquine can prevent and treat coronavirus in primate cells (Figure 1 and Figure 2). According to South Korean and China human treatment guidelines, chloroquine is effective in treating COVID-19.”
And that Chloroquine is widely used as an antimalarial and is effective against COVID-19 – why is everyone watching people die instead of using it?
I know that it will reduce the media excitement of a pandemic and all the clickbait profits – but as there is a drug that can be used against COVID-19 why is it not being used?
This is important.
Perhaps everyone should pass the URL:
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/four-notes-on-covid-19.php
to their own primary care physician and their congressman/senator
Ian W
It seems the worldometer site is about 12 hours or more ahead with the numbers. Apparently, the US uses the CDC numbers which are delayed I suppose. Right now WOM show 771 new cases for a total of 3,714 today for the US. JH total 3,499.
@Ian W; yes on the Chloroquine, I read on the Chinese successful using this as well as Vitamin C and blood plasma from recovered patients. All used to reduced the symptoms in critical patients.
While nobody was supposed to be watching!
“Never Let A Crisis Go To Waste. Naughty, naughty Nancy Pelosi tried to slip a pro-abortion amendment into the Corona virus bill:”
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/03/15/never-let-a-crisis-go-to-waste-2/
Beware of web sites and emails bearing dashboards!!!
In one scheme, an interactive dashboard of Coronavirus infections and deaths produced by Johns Hopkins University is being used in malicious Web sites (and possibly spam emails) to spread password-stealing malware.
Late last month, a member of several Russian language cybercrime forums began selling a digital Coronavirus infection kit that uses the Hopkins interactive map as part of a Java-based malware deployment scheme. The kit costs $200 if the buyer already has a Java code signing certificate, and $700 if the buyer wishes to just use the seller’s certificate.
https://krebsonsecurity.com/2020/03/live-coronavirus-map-used-to-spread-malware/
As I understand it, the S.Korean low death rate is also from some drug mix using chloroquine or related drug. Maybe Italy needs to talk with Asia…
One other speculation was that Italian Drs. REALLY like using NSAIDS to keep fever down, but this reduces immune response effectiveness. With more severe and lethal cases resulting.
So , worldometer got compromised. Go figure. See the announcement.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The agenda 21 – 30 folks are probably thrilled by whats happening. Just sayin.
BTW, the site showed like 80 million dead in vatican city from the hack. So ya know.
It is fixed now but has a notice up top.
Ossqss,
The numbers were
Vatican City
Total Cases 568,000
New Cases 567,999
Total Deaths 892,045
New Deaths 892,045
Active Cases -324,045
The idea of having a negative number of active cases…
Nancy &John H, started researching and writing this before the C outbreak…
An addendum, I posted on my above. British pre-woke humour. Only possible humour, woke bein’ anti such. “Hands up those who think we should panic now?”
Dang, it didn’t come up. sorry folks. It’s the 2nd vid… the can-can.
EM. You might like to wipe the above vid This is what I was trying to bring up…
Howdy from the cold, frozen North –
Got a suggestion for potassium from an earlier thread. Now have NoSalt on hand.
Good notes on the chloroquine. Many thanks.
Had thought that the pneumonia shot for oldsters would be a mitigating thing, perhaps something of a prophylactic against pneumonia. The Philly Enquirer link earlier argues otherwise, though there are lots of pneumonias out there and if you successfully treat one part of that world, I would think that was a positive. One of the things I’ve noticed in the few after the shot is that colds and flues are fewer, farther between, and so far milder (this might be entirely wishful thinking, so your mileage may vary).
Wondering if the increase in the use of CPAP machines by oldsters over the last decade or so will help mitigate the spread of the disease in the mid to later stages.
FInal point is that COVID-19 is the 19th virus of this form found. 3 of them are active as the common cold, which while there are treatments available, there is no vaccine that I know of yet. Cheers –
Some potential positive news today. Many of these have been discussed here.
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/health/optimism-grows-antivirals-past-viral-outbreaks-may-effectively-treat#.Xm9WXhsiLPk.twitter
@Beth:
I think I’ll leave them both up. Having never watched The Goodies before, it’s a bit of a treat. Clearly I gave catching up to do ;-)
@Agimac:
As bacterial pneumonia is a comon complication of lung viral infection, having a vaccination against the one common in your area is a good thing.
@Ossqss:
Nice to see the information going mainstream.
One just hopes the “trials” don’t stand in the way of practical use right now in Europe (and Real Soon Now in the USA). Perfection in drug choice cannot be allowed to be the enemy of a good use now.
Looks like I’m under a shelter in place order in my county…
@agimarc
These are reasons why folk should take the flu shot and the pneumovax, if not contraindicated: 1. lessen the odds of getting the flu, and if you do, reducing your own infectiousness and severity of illness and 2. prevent the most common secondary bacterial pneumonias that accompany a severe case of influenza.
NB that the coronaviruses themselves induce a worse lower respiratory tract infection than influenza does, on its own; secondary complications notwithstanding. It is rather rare for the influenza virus to itself cause a viral pneumonia, though it can. Other, influenza virus like infections often do and since there are on the order of 1000 kinds of viruses that cause respiratory tract infections, well, testing has limited value for most people. One of the problems we have is the conflation that occurs when folk call these things colds. It is untidy and, while mostly harmless, can and does result in poor decisions (politics also notwithstanding).
“It has been determined that the C19 corona virus has been exposed to President Trump….
The Democrats have now asked the virus to self quarantine for 14 days. ”
https://www.redpowermagazine.com/forums/topic/128501-wouldn%E2%80%99t-it-be-ironic/?tab=comments#comment-1400566
https://sf.gov/stay-home-except-essential-needs
Stay home except for essential needs
On Monday March 16, San Francisco with Health Officers from the Bay Area announced a Public Health Order that requires residents to stay home except for essential needs. This starts on March 17.
What to do
The City issued a Public Health Order requiring people to stay home except for essential needs.
Vulnerable populations must stay home. Everyone should stay home except to get food, care for a relative or friend, get necessary health care, or go to an essential job.
It is OK to go outside for walks if you are not in a group.
This order is in effect until April 7.
It may be extended depending on recommendations from public health officials.
Why are we doing this?
This is a critical intervention to reduce harm from the spread of the coronavirus in our community. This is a mandatory order.
All Bay Area Health Officers observed quickly mounting cases and serious illnesses across the region.
Now is the time to do everything we can to prevent the situation from getting much worse in a matter of days or weeks. Every hour counts. We need and appreciate the cooperation of everyone who lives and works in San Francisco to act immediately.
While this news may feel alarming, it is a necessary step to prevent a worsening situation. The patterns of the virus around the world, and in our own state, tell us that moving right now to maximize social distancing and restrict people gathering is the best way to fight the virus and save lives.
If everyone works together, we should be able to adjust to the new rules over the next few weeks.
We know that there will be a lot of questions and concerns at the beginning of this new regimen. This is a major change being taken to protect public health. Please be patient and kind to one another. Together, we will get through this, and our community’s health will be protected.
How long will we stay home?
This goes into effect on Tuesday, March 17, 2020. It is currently set to last for 3 weeks through Tuesday, April 7, 2020.
We want to be sure the Order is in place for only as long as necessary, and the Health Officer will be closely monitoring the situation every day in order to determine what adjustments make sense.
What can I do? What’s open?
These essential services will remain open:
City/County government services: Police stations, fire stations, hospitals/clinics and healthcare operations, jails, courts, garbage/sanitation, transportation (including Muni), utilities (water, power and gas), and city offices
Gas stations
Pharmacies
Food: Grocery stores, farmers markets, food banks, convenience stores, take-out and delivery restaurants
Hardware stores/plumbers
Banks
Community benefit organizations on a case-by-case basis
Laundromats/laundry services
What’s closed?
Dine-in restaurants
Bars and nightclubs
Entertainment venues
Gyms and fitness studios
What can’t I do?
You cannot engage in group activities in person with others.
You cannot have dinner parties. You cannot invite friends over to your home to hang out.
You cannot go to bars or nightclubs.
You cannot go to a nail salon or get your hair cut by a stylist or barber.
You cannot go shopping for non-essential goods.
You cannot take unnecessary trips on public transport or in your car or motorbike.
Where does this apply?
This is in effect across the Bay Area, including in Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Contra Costa, and Alameda Counties and the City of Berkeley.
Is this mandatory or is it just guidance?
It is mandatory. This Order is a legal Order issued under the authority of California law. You are required to comply, and it is a misdemeanor crime not to follow the order (although the intent is not for anyone to get into trouble).
It is critical for everyone to follow the Order to prevent the spread of COVID-19 and protect themselves, their loved ones, friends, neighbors and the whole community.
All persons, businesses, and other entities are required to comply if they do not fall within the exemptions that are specified in the Order.
I self-isolated today. I went fishing. It was 47(F) and cloudy. Nobody else out.
I caught two fish. The rest were biting, but really just picking at the worm.
Neither of the fish coughed or sneezed on me, so I figure I’m safe for another day.
Is this what martial law is like? I’ve never done that.
Beth the…
Well, regarding the “madness of crowds” and “recovering their senses one by one” I have great hope then for this virus shut down isolation. You see, I think the PC world has made us peoples insane. So perhaps there will be some unexpected benefits to isolation and reflexion.
Yawn! wonder how long that will last? maybe a week at most. That “Order” has more holes in it then a brick of Swiss Cheese.
Guess we will have to entertain each other. ..FOR a MONTH ! OMG !
My recommendation is a very old book, but an excellent read, and very appropriate for the current situation.
“The Decameron”, by Boccaccio, from 1353.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Decameron
If you would rather watch the movie, it’s by Pasolini, from 1971.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Decameron_(1971_film)
We still see a continued reduction, now to 6%, of Severe/Critical active cases on WOM.
I know much has been tossed about with respect to the number of ventilators, however, I suspect that is not much of a factor in the end. Considering the statistics of a bad outcome with respect to closed cases is still at 8%, I don’t like it. It has bumped up over the last few days. I wonder the recovery rate of those who make that stage, regardless of, but in consideration of predisposition. Italy may hold those answers.
It is relevant in understanding better what we face. IMHO
Wait, what? Really? I am having a difficult time digesting this story. .
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/event-201-unfolds-covid-19-action-platform-global-government
What else can ya do when pretty much all sports are canceled, but read. Reruns?
Ossqss, is not the drop in serious/ critical percentage due to the increasingly exponential acceleration of new cases, and the time delay between new and serious/ critical cases?
When India kicks in the process repeats.
Ossqss, started reading that entertainment you linked…
“Whereas no evidence exists that the Chinese government is responsible for COVID-19, nor does the PRC have a history of engaging in bio-warfare, there ”
Egads, full stop, completely wrong, CXL the show.
Nancy & John Hultquist says:
15 March 2020 at 6:26 pm
Boston was reported near overload 2 nights ago on the nightly news.
I couldn’t find anything on that. I did find this.
Hospitals will run out of beds if coronavirus cases spike
https://www.hoosiertimes.com/tmnews/news/nation/hospitals-will-run-out-of-beds-if-coronavirus-cases-spike/article_ab2957f4-6547-11ea-9f9e-bf698b7ea988.html
I did find a more specific article – but it is paywalled.
===
Winnebago County, Illinois has its first verified case. There are 3 tests awaiting completion. For two days wait so far.
I’m going to see my Dr. on Thursday to get some tubing from the surgery removed. I’ll let you know what precautions are being taken. The Dr. was a skeptic two weeks ago.
Nancy & John Hultquist says:
15 March 2020 at 6:43 pm
Pneumonia protection.? Deep breathing. When I got out of surgery I was given a breath meter (spirometer) and told to take 10 deep breaths an hour to prevent pneumonia. I already breathe like that when I’m not recovering from surgery One day after surgery I could do 500ml. The next day 1,500ml. Next day 2,500ml – the Drs. requirement.
The meter: ==> http://classicalvalues.com/2020/03/help-prevent-spread-of-pneumonia-breathe-deeply/
Abortion is not a function of politics. It is a function of ecology. The ecology is reflected in politics. Morality is the least of it. Sadly most humans want absolutes.
A Thermodynamic Explanation of Politics
The City vs Country divide has been a feature of human politics for 5,000 years or more. Too bad we haven’t figured it out yet.
Two Ecologies
Cities are classic “behavior sinks” according to Thomas Jefferson.
“When we get piled upon one another in large cities, as in Europe, we shall become as corrupt as Europe.” – Thomas Jefferson
@MSimon https://www.wimhofmethod.com/breathing-exercises
One unspoken fear of mine:
Perhaps old folks go down in much greater numbers due to ADE:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement
Having been exposed to vastly more corona viruses in their life, perhaps one of those antibodies is close enough to do the deed?
This is also why I’ll not be taking any vaccine for this virus until proven that ADE doesn’t happen.
The closely related SARS-1 virus vaccine trials had an ADE problem…
On worldometer, you can click the headings to sort by columns. This list sorts by new cases, high to low (click heading twice). Makes it clear Italy is in the doo, and the rest of the EU is catching up…
In other news:
DW is pushing the Orange Man Bad story that Trump tried to buy the company making a Covid vaccine. The reality is that the company confirmed it is for sale…
So at most, you could have a company on the rocks (so looking to sell) and an offer of funding to assure the vaccine gets made. A very reasonable thing to do, IMHO. Spinning that as a Greedy Trump Story is profoundly ignorant and evil, IMHO. Add DW to your Fake News TDS Site list.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1286457920300344
Is COVID-19 receiving ADE from other coronaviruses?
Abstract
One of the most perplexing questions regarding the current COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic is the discrepancy between the severity of cases observed in the Hubei province of China and those occurring elsewhere in the world. One possible answer is antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) of SARS-CoV-2 due to prior exposure to other coronaviruses. ADE modulates the immune response and can elicit sustained inflammation, lymphopenia, and/or cytokine storm, one or all of which have been documented in severe cases and deaths. ADE also requires prior exposure to similar antigenic epitopes, presumably circulating in local viruses, making it a possible explanation for the observed geographic limitation of severe cases and deaths.
There are numerous questions regarding the nature of the current COVID-19 epidemic. One of the most perplexing happens to be the significant discrepancy of serious cases and deaths between areas within the Hubei Province, where the outbreak initiated, and the rest of the world.
An examination of patient cases within the Hubei region reveals some useful data regarding the pathogenesis of this virus [[1], [2], [3]]. Severe cases tend to occur in men and many suffer from one or more co-morbidities such as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease as well as diabetes. Several sequelae also have been observed including cellular immune deficiency, coagulation activation, myocardia injury, hepatic and kidney injury, and secondary bacterial infection. In the majority of cases of severe disease and death, lymphopenia and sustained inflammation has been recorded. Notably, these observations in COVID-19 patients are similar to those who suffered from severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) during the 2003 epidemic [4].
Based on this information and the similarity of symptoms to SARS, COVID-19 appears to constitute a major threat to human health justifying the World Health Organization’s declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Yet, examining the situation outside of Hubei Province provides a very different perspective. Most infected individuals have a mild disease and do not progress into severe stages of infection. Moreover, patients appear to be able to recover with little to no medical intervention. Based on this evidence, the virus would not be considered a major threat to public health. Instead, it appears to be no more concerning than the influenza virus [5].
This geographic discrepancy in pathogenesis may appear to defy explanation. Yet there may be a biological mechanism behind this epidemiological anomaly. Individuals suffering the most may have been primed by one or more prior coronavirus exposures, and due to antigenic epitope heterogeneity, are experiencing the effects of antibody dependent enhancement (ADE).
This postulate isn’t novel as it has been found and characterized in the SARS coronavirus, SARS-CoV. Enhancement was identified by Yang et al. [6] in 2005 and was hypothesized as being the reason for such a high mortality rate in China [7]. At the time, the priming strains were thought to be human coronaviruses known to cause mild infection such as 229E [7]. The mechanism was characterized by Yip et al. [8,9] and revealed that anti-Spike protein antibodies were indeed responsible for the infection of immune cells. Wang et al. [10] revealed that enhancement may be improved by increasing dilutions of antibodies, suggesting a temporal relationship between priming and enhancement.
While the molecular and immunological host response to SARS-CoV-2 infection has not yet been fully elucidated to confirm ADE is occuring, the current clinical evidence suggests this is a possibility. Based on previous studies using SARS-CoV using in vitro studies [11] and mouse models [12], ADE hinders the ability to manage inflammation in the lung and elsewhere. This may lead to acute respiratory injury, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and other observed inflammation-based sequelae as seen in many of the documented cases of severe COVID-19 disease. In addition, ADE offers a viable explanation for the geographic discrepancy in severity of cases.
In the context of identifying the priming coronavirus, it is worthwhile looking at SARS-CoV as its introduction to humans has been suggested to have occurred in the Hubei Province [13]. The genetic sequence possesses numerous dissimilarities to the virus responsible for COVID-19, tentatively named SARS-CoV-2 [14], with approximately 79% homology [15]. For example, Hua et al. [16] identified two specific epitopes on the SARS-CoV spike protein, 447–458 and 789–799. A BLAST comparison with the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 reveals 72.7% and 100% similarity respectively. Several other identified epitopes on the SARS-CoV spike protein [13] do not share perfect alignment with SARS-CoV-2 and may also be involved in ADE.
Although prior SARS-CoV exposure or infection may play a role in ADE, it likely is not be the predominant priming virus. Seroprevalence studies have shown a very low level of SARS-CoV seroconversion in the population apart from workers with direct contact with animals such as traders [17]. Moreover, several bat coronavirus strains [6] have been identified as being closely related to SARS-CoV-2 with higher homology than SARS-CoV. There may have been past introductions and circulations of mild strains of similar coronaviruses that were asymptomatic or mistaken for a regular common cold virus. A few potential candidates have been isolated in Hubei province [18] and may serve as the basis for retrospective serological testing to confirm prior infection and resultant risk for ADE has occurred.
We are just beginning to understand the dynamics of COVID-19 in humans and the impact of the virus on the individual. Further studies need to focus on how the virus interacts with the host leading to the wide variance in observed symptoms and the apparent geographically based discrepancy of severity between Hubei Province and the rest of the world. Should ADE be proven to be a mechanism of pathogenesis, both treatment regimens and vaccine development will need to take this phenomenon into consideration to ensure it is mitigated and in the case of a vaccine, avoided altogether.
END QUOTED MATERIAL.
So the different national experiences may be due to different exposure histories to related viruses. The midfle east having lots of exposure to camel hosted MERS could be particularly hard hit, and European countries with lots of North Africa / Middle East vacation time too
I’ m now back from voting ca. 5 p.m. (EDT) in Fla.’s Prez-Preference Primary (election) [#]. Donned disposable vinyl gloves before entering the polling-place. No lines inside for my precinct, whose voters are predominately black, and who can be assumed to be part of Orange Co.‘s predominately Democrat registered voters. They still have the Joe-vs.-Bernie contest to motivate their appearance out of CoV-19 hiding, altho’ maybe that’s not sufficiently compelling. I was able to have the raster-code on my required photo-&-signature id scanned by the iPad-based voter sign-in, without it being touched by a poll-worker [×]
I bought 3 more lb. of boring-white rice [*] at the family-owned convenience store where I often buy industrially fermented beverages. I haven’t been shopping in a supermarket chain in maybe 1½ weeks. Stowed lots of canned soup & pasta from Publix buy-1-get-1 (free) (“BOGO”) sales, albeit much more than 2 weeks will be a stretch.
——-
Note #: All Fla. polling-places are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time, with CDT in all counties west of the Apalachicola River (same as Chattahooche R. in the Dawg state).
Note ×: I’ve resembled that
remarktemporary job for many years, just not for this election. Orange Co. is still seeking more poll-workers. It’s a $150–>200 flat payment, depending on one’s assigned job. Maybe in November, when we might hope that the CoV-19 situation will have settled down to retrospective epidemiological stats.Note *: I much prefer Calif. short-grain brown rice, but I’ve read that it’s inferior for prepping, because the normally tasty fats/oils can degrade, so the whole pkg. of rice goes bad (I’ve seen it act as a growth medium for a greenish-gray fungusy substance that floats to the top of water in saucepans when starting to boil such rice).
Must be your humidity…
Yes, white rice stores near forever and brown doesn’t, but I’ve stored brown for several months in glass jars without spoilage. IIRC 3 to 6 months suggested for bags of it. Never had any mold, but air here tends to be dry.
UK Channel 4 reporting Spain medical system at the breaking point, military to enforce lockdown.
Interview with a UK Dr. had him pleading for reduction in cases as they are running out of capacity.
In other news, Cuomo using Guard units to help with the problems in N.Y.
EM, regarding the apparent good news coming out of a few places that have used anti-virals Quinine based medicine, even to the point of curing patients there is a complete lack of information from official sources.
Are we in the situation that the information is being suppressed as there are fortunes to be made by drug compamies that can develop the first vaccines.
I read reports by the Imperial College in the UK who advise our government on COV19, they actually stated that there were no drugs and we are all waiting for them to be developed.
I then learn that are one of thsoe who are close to producing a Vaccine for testing.
If this should be the case it is absolutely disgraceful conduct.
Where the headline banners that there are medicines currently available that treat and reduce the symptoms and may even cure COV19 to give people hope?
There is currently nothing but gloom & doom.
Drive-through testing has started, though I don’t know how many locations there are. I saw a set-up of one in Cleveland, Ohio on the news.
I think the CDC has their nose bent out of joint a bit because President Trump, via his team, cut through their B.S. and let a private firm loose that has a test that is supposedly very accurate and nearly instant. At least, that’s what I gathered from the 2 minutes or so that the news show devoted to the topic.
If we get a lot of drive-throughs set up and going in the next week or so, the numbers are going to change wildly.
Oh, I haven’t heard anything about the percent of false positives for this “instant” test. They just said it a very good test, whatever that means.
Speaking of that, since the state of emergency declaration and being released from the clutches of the CDC and CLIA, several public/private groups have developed test kits. One I know of in Huntsville and one in Birmingham, that one being the UAB Hospital Labs system kit.
NB about PCR type tests, they are extremely sensitive but prone to false positives. Reagent issues exacerbate this. I had a step daughter make state Science Fair with one of these some 25 years ago.
@ACO,
Well, there are no *approved* treatments yet, pharmaceutical or otherwise. There are vaccines being developed and stage one (preliminary effectiveness and safety) trials being started. There are both new agents and old agents being screened for stage one trials. A thing that may happen in the USA, with our Right to Try law, is that some of these will get used before the formal system and its years to decades (for new agents) elapsed time to market. So no, I doubt that any information is being suppressed, as such.
E.M. you quoted…
“Yet, examining the situation outside of Hubei Province provides a very different perspective. Most infected individuals have a mild disease and do not progress into severe stages of infection. Moreover, patients appear to be able to recover with little to no medical intervention. Based on this evidence, the virus would not be considered a major threat to public health. Instead, it appears to be no more concerning than the influenza
virus [5].”
They must not be looking at the same charts I see. In China Cov19 began in early Dec. ( Not Jan22 with 8 deaths as the worldmeter shows.) For most of 7 weeks China did not have any defensive protocols. ( New disease, no tests, as they were not invented, just an explosion of flu and penimonia symptoms and deaths). Only later near the end of January came on the massive defensive protocols, including undocumented acceleration of the R-naught in uncounted “likely exposed” quarantines resulting in uncounted massive deaths.
But the official numbers are worse in the ROW. Greater exponential rise in cases and critical, and CFR rising as the disease matures. China had 10 or 11 weeks from Ground zero to the flattening of the curve, and about 56 cases per million on official records.
The ROW, in a shorter time period with earlier defensive protocols, has, wherever a substantial foothold of case rate is established, a per capita infection rate of 4 to 10 times China, and this ratio is growing as the exponential continues. That very exponential, steeper then China’s, means the CFR in the ROW is lagging but will gain as the curve flattens. And that CFR, deaths to cured is increasing and almost 9 percent today.
In summary I see little evidence of reduced severe cases in the ROW, and great growing evidence of China lies in official numbers.
Here is an Australian presentation of the ‘bare’ facts. Lots of charts to look at as well…
For me the most interesting thing the break down between “imported’ infections and locally transmitted infections.
Sydney for unknown reasons is a major center of local transmissions..But probably someone came in from overseas ( Iran ? ) and was asymptomatic..and thus started things rolling.
And guess where infected people came from in the highest number ? The USA ! Currently 34 people have flown into Australian from the USA and then tested positive for Corona 19 virus infection.
Maybe as you said EM, via infection at LAX via TSA staff !
I forgot the link : https://www.covid19data.com.au/
E.M. regarding Spain hospitals being overwhelmed.
On March 6th Spain had 8 dead. ( So Spain’s March 6th was China’s January 22nd) Today, less then two weeks later, their cases per capita is 6 times China’s finale number. Two plus weeks from now, when their infection time equals China’s peak rise before the flatline, I see a potential of 12 to 24 times China’s per capita infection rate. Their current CFR to cured is about 34 percent. ( China lies)
I know that China has a giant population, but I think the statistics are similar in the per city capita cases for infections.
David A, I also agree that China’s data does not add up. You especially do not have “dead in the streets” with the sort of numbers they are now quoting.
Quinine got mentioned in today’s news conference with the President.
I think the term used was hydro chloro Quinine
Interesting Video, using hair dryer to bake out nasal and sinus areas.
Spray bottle to keep face cool.
Seems like a good idea, cheap, readily (widely) available, minimal downside to trying it.
” https://youtu.be/_JSsd-TYqOA ”
the url has an underscore after the be/ . Hope this doesn’t get mulhceded.
Poster is “GREATBLACKSHARK”
Less than 2000 views?
OF
@M.Simon:
Different chemical. Hydrochloroquine. Basically, that top molecule in the top post, chloroquine, with an OH stuck on the upper limb of the dangly bit.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydroxychloroquine
More on how it works:
That MedCram video says the French had some success with a mix of chloroquine and an antibiotic with some antiviral effects. Azithromycin. Here’s an article on that.
BEGIN QUOTE:
https://www.nature.com/articles/srep28698
Azithromycin induces anti-viral effects in cultured bronchial epithelial cells from COPD patients
Mandy Menzel, Hamid Akbarshahi, Leif Bjermer & Lena Uller
Scientific Reports volume 6, Article number: 28698 (2016)
Abstract
Rhinovirus infection is a major cause of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations and may contribute to the development into severe stages of COPD. The macrolide antibiotic azithromycin may exert anti-viral actions and has been reported to reduce exacerbations in COPD. However, little is known about its anti-viral actions on bronchial epithelial cells at clinically relevant concentrations. Primary bronchial epithelial cells from COPD donors and healthy individuals were treated continuously with azithromycin starting 24 h before infection with rhinovirus RV16. Expression of interferons, RIG-I like helicases, pro-inflammatory cytokines and viral load were analysed. Azithromycin transiently increased expression of IFNβ and IFNλ1 and RIG-I like helicases in un-infected COPD cells. Further, azithromycin augmented RV16-induced expression of interferons and RIG-I like helicases in COPD cells but not in healthy epithelial cells. Azithromycin also decreased viral load. However, it only modestly altered RV16-induced pro-inflammatory cytokine expression. Adding budesonide did not reduce interferon-inducing effects of azithromycin. Possibly by inducing expression of RIG-I like helicases, azithromycin increased rhinovirus-induced expression of interferons in COPD but not in healthy bronchial epithelium. These effects would reduce bronchial viral load, supporting azithromycin’s emerging role in prevention of exacerbations of COPD.
The general news disparaged as a fraud “someone promoting oregano oil” for Covid-19. As I do know many of our drug originated from plants, and that folks often toss mud at herbals out of stupidity; I decided to look into it. Turns out is does have antiviral effects. Probably not enough, but you won’t know if you don’t look.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3768712/
Begin quote:
Abstract
Mexican oregano (Lippia graveolens) is a plant found in Mexico and Central America that is traditionally used as a medicinal herb. In the present study, we investigated the antiviral activity of the essential oil of Mexican oregano and its major component, carvacrol, against different human and animal viruses. The MTT test (3–4,5-dimethythiazol-2yl)-2,5-diphenyl tetrazolium bromide) was conducted to determine the selectivity index (SI) of the essential oil, which was equal to 13.1, 7.4, 10.8, 9.7, and 7.2 for acyclovir-resistant herpes simplex virus type 1 (ACVR-HHV-1), acyclovir-sensitive HHV-1, human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV), bovine herpesvirus type 2 (BoHV-2), and bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV), respectively. The human rotavirus (RV) and BoHV-1 and 5 were not inhibited by the essential oil. Carvacrol alone exhibited high antiviral activity against RV with a SI of 33, but it was less efficient than the oil for the other viruses. Thus, Mexican oregano oil and its main component, carvacrol, are able to inhibit different human and animal viruses in vitro. Specifically, the antiviral effects of Mexican oregano oil on ACVR-HHV-1 and HRSV and of carvacrol on RV justify more detailed studies.
This is also true of fungi. If I am not mistaken, all of the ‘mycins’ were derived from chemicals first isolated from fungi. Then we found ways to modify them then directly synthesize them.
A maybe
“Medical authorities in China have said a drug used in Japan to treat new strains of influenza appeared to be effective in coronavirus patients, Japanese media said on Wednesday.”
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/03/18/wuhan-flu-7/
EM, an Italian Town of 3300 proved how effective isolation with testing is.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8126899/Small-Italian-town-cuts-coronavirus-cases-zero-population-tested.html
Orange Co. (Fla.) now has 7 confirmed cases of CoV-19, compared to 7 total dead from CoV-19 in state. Hospital leaders already express concern about overloading in Orange Co., so people are now being urged not to seek routine care in various E.R.s, and to call their doctors first. Yet ads are still being run on radio promoting on-line scheduling of E.R. visits as intended patients! County schools will be closed until April 15.[#]
State of Fla. has now distributed 2500 test kits, good for testing for ca. 600,000 people. State has included private-industry (e.g., Quest and LabCorp) in its testing efforts since March 8. Approx. 50% of state’s cases are in Miami-Dade (Alta Cuba) and Broward Cos. (deemed community transmission esp. in the latter, which happens to be Fla.’s most populously Democrat co.). A drive-up testing site is being set up soonest in Broward Co., targeting 800 tests/day.[##] I coulda sworn that the guv. said that some early confirmed cases in Miami-Dade were “international”, specifically people who’d arrived for that purpose from Cuba.
Shortly before both pressers, Sean Hannity blabbed the paper that he attributed to Nature, soberly touting the benefits of chloroquin(in)e-related drugs. So stock-up on your supplies for gin & tonic (or vodka & tonic), if you think it’s beneficial, before average people make the connection and clear store shelves of tonic water.
Meanwhile, the high-temp. here today is a premature 87°F.
——-
Note #: Entire para. per presser with Or.-Co. mayor Jerry Demings (husband of de facto impeachment prosecutor congresswoman Val(erie) D., sigh) and Orlando mayor Buddy Dyer, as broadcast live by news-talk FM 96.5 ca. 4 p.m. EDT.
Note ##: Entire para. per presser with Fla. Gov. Ron DeSantis, as broadcast live by news-talk FM 96.5 ca. 4:45 p.m. EDT.
“An effective treatment for #Coronavirus #COVID-19 has been found in a common anti-malarial drug”
“UPDATE: A Covid-19 case correlation between malarial and non-malarial countries has been plotted by Dr. Roy Spencer, and the results are stunning – see below.”
Don’t miss the update!
@Another Ian:
It looks like lots of folks have reached the same conclusion. Chloroquine and related work, and only stupidity stands in the way.
EM, it could turn in to the medical scsndal of the century.
Especially if this is being done to protect the profits that will be made by a new vaccine.
Watching the Taskforce live, if looks like chloroquine and a few others are being approved for use.
A little bit unclear how widely. Trump said “compassionate use” while head of the FDA said “wide trial” (probably in New York). So maybe a NY trial and the rest of us can plead for compassionate use.
We need to see chloroquine approved for prophylaxis. That way we can all come out of seclusion. If it’s in short supply, give it to oldies and those with impaired health as soon as patients under treatment and health workers have had it.
Interesting that we in the UK have the single-payer socialised medicine whereas you have the FDA defending its empire as the first priority (they don’t need to waste time trialling CQ.)
Cuomo’s live briefing, I thought, said 7000+ cases, so likely more recent than this.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
But clearly NY is the big spot:
Were I running this rodeo, I’d start a program at the small end now. Pick States and Counties with no or low cases, put a prophylactic ring of chloroquine around the outbreak and 100% test & treat those inside the ring. Once cases are cleared, declare that State or County cleared and open for business. (Block travel from places with cases including States with big numbers or Counties, but allow travel in and between the cleared locations).
Essentially, why lock down the thousand or so folks in Alpine County when nobody there has it. Let them “move about the County” and get back to work. Then add other cleared counties around it, building back out. Similarly in Kansas and West Virginia.
@Rhoda:
It is approved for malaria prophylaxis, so in theory you can claim a trip to Panama and get a prescription.
The FDA guy just said remdesivir is “approved for compassionate use”, so you ask FDA for permission so they can gather the data… still a bit more regulatory work needed…
Michel Barnier has tested positive for Covid-19.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michel_Barnier
He is the major roadblock, er, negotiator for BREXIT from the EU side. EU wants to extend deadline, UK so far saying no.
Wonder who all he interacts with in small closed offices…
Went to the Drs. today to get catheter and staples from surgery removed. There was hardly anyone in the waiting room. Friends and family advised to wait in cars.
No aggressive cleaning. But as of today still only 3 cases in the county. One is being treated in the hospital I got surgery at ( I was in from 4 March to 10 March). No more elective surgeries locally. My case was nominally elective since the cancer was very slow growing. I had already put it off two months so I could get treated in the Spring. I just beat the curve. I would have put it off if there had been more cases locally on 4 March (the date of the surgery.).
I require no chemo. But I will require X-rays to monitor my situation.
President Trump Announces Chloroquine Will Be Made Available IMMEDIATELY ! – Has Shown “Very, Very Encouraging Early Results” (VIDEO)
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/huge-breaking-news-president-trump-announces-chloroquine-will-be-made-available-immediately-has-shown-very-very-encouraging-early-results-video/
I just got back from scoring 20 1-liter bottles of diet tonic water. I left plenty on the shelves for others.
Regular tonic water is kind of self-defeating for a diabetic. It seems there is 30 grams of sugar per 8oz serving. Yikes!
I see my Dr. next week for my annual meds review. I am going to try to talk her into a prescription for chloroquine. Hey, the tropics are on my bucket list. Gotta be prepared ;o)
Now I’m off to find out how many milligrams of quinine are in a liter of tonic water.
Okay. It looks to be 83 mg of quinine in a liter of tonic water, so I figure drinking 3 bottles per day should do it.
I already drink lots of liquids as part of my diabetes management regime. Good thing I like tonic water. I’ll just substitute it for the other liquids I’d normally drink.
What size bottle?
Not the 2 L I hope!
May it keep you in good health!
@M.Simon:
I watched that event. My sense of it is that the FDA is “immediately” running a big trial, centered on New York. Not immediate general availability. Though “compassionate use” is approved if your Dr. Contacts the FDA.
When did medicine get so screwed up here that an M.D. has to ask permission to treat patients with drugs known to be safe? Didn’t we send them to Med School to get that skill?
Well, that’s not good.
Italian deaths exceed reported Chinese deaths.
USA over 10k cases and skyrocketing as testing hits full speed.
Looks like New York added the most in the USA.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Despite 1000 cases in California, it looks like we’ve got a better handle on spread than New York .
M.Simon,
Glad you beat any triage decisions.
All the best…
Natural source quinine on Amazon … tree bark, but hey!
So Cali goes all in tonight. They always do start trends, right?
The bad bit is the jump in cases. The good bit is the low deaths… so far,,.
@Ossqss:
Yeah, lucky me…
Chloroquine is a synthetic form of quinine, a compound found in the bark of cinchona trees native to Peru and used for centuries to treat malaria. Chloroquine was an essential element of mass drug administration campaigns to combat malaria throughout the second half of the 20th century, and remains one of the World Health Organization’s essential medicines.
https://www.asbmb.org/asbmb-today/science/020620/could-an-old-malaria-drug-help-fight-the-new-coron
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