Well, California quarantined a neighborhood where a Covid-19 case died. (h/t Gail). The video below also mentions it. This isn’t quite the same as other quarantines in that we don’t know if it was just temporary while they collected the guy and disinfected the area, or is it longer due to that whole neighborhood now being suspect and maybe tested?
This is exactly WHY you ALL ought to be prepared to be locked in your house. Perhaps for a day, or perhaps for 2 weeks, or perhaps for 2 months if things are spreading and sequential cases found.
How’s that old jingle go? “When it’s least expected, you’r elected…”
IIRC this was the 1st death in California. There will be more and this scene will play out hundreds of times.
Police-enforced quarantine hits Calif. residential block after man’s coronavirus death
Updated: Fri 12:16 PM, Mar 06, 2020
ROCKLIN, Calif. (KMAX/KOVR/CNN) – Sacramento County Sheriff deputies and Rocklin Police, some wearing protective gloves, converged on a residential street Thursday as a sheriff’s helicopter circled overhead, ordering people to get inside.
Sacramento County Sheriff deputies and Rocklin Police, some wearing protective gloves, converged on this residential street in Rocklin, Calif. (Source: KOVR/KMAX/CNN)
People who live there were unclear why. Officers eventually let them come and go from their homes.
It was later learned that the first California coronavirus patient to die from the illness lived on this block.
The Placer County Health Department issued a brief statement shortly after the police presence, stating: “Law enforcement partners are currently responding to enforce a health officer’s order. We cannot share any additional information to protect patient confidentiality.”
So it looks like they put up a perimeter to keep out looky-loos and paparazzo, but let locals go directly to their homes. As more testing is shown to be essential, I’ll expect this to change to “and test everyone in 100 yards”…
This video has a good analysis of the math of this exponential (from a series tweeted by a lady engineer, Liz Specht, who “gets it”. At about 15 minutes.) and is worth watching / reading the text on the screen.
His mantra is “case, case, case, cluster, cluster, Boom!” with the Boom being when the exponential takes off rapidly. The USA has now already done the “cluster, cluster” what with Washington old folks home and California (both the ship in San Francisco and the sudden added cases in Santa Clara / Solano / Sacramento). Now we’re just waiting for the Boom!
The USA is now over 400 (his video uses an earlier version of the data). Doubling about every 4 days as a guess (not the 6 used in the math / estimate). So 800, 1600 by next weekend and 3200, 6400, 12800 by 12 days later (or 20 days from now). Then it starts to get ugly in April… And that is only using the known confirmed cases and we know there’s a lot more than that out there as no effective testing has been done.
IMHO, California will be a bit of a mess / medical system swamping about mid April. The rest of the USA about 2 to 4 weeks later.
He also shows a graph of age distribution by nation. Italy is #2 in old folks / high risk people, so that might be why so many cases are severe in Italy.
There’s a screen grab of an announcement from a clinic saying “not going to test” that was rapidly taken down after an bit of an uproar. One hopes that was a mistake, and NOT the actual policy being followed. (As that policy would be “let everyone get it and bury the dead”…)
We also find out why the USA test was so late and broken. They decided to make a kit to test for SARS / MERs / SARS-2 all at once, and their hubris caused the flop costing at least 2 and likely 3 weeks of exponential growth. At the end of this, that will likely be at least 10s of thousands and perhaps millions more infected and / or dead.
BTW, while this guy is a ‘gold bug’ he also has a Ph.D. Pathology – so is aware of this stuff and trained in it.
IMHO there’s still a chance we can get ahead of this thing. It has been announced that about 1 million test kits have been sent out, and that a couple of major labs plus various universities are now free of the Obama era FDA rule that said “must get approval first”. (Thank you POTUS Trump!)
Also, POTUS announced that a big contract was handed to 3M, who do still make masks in the USA, for a whole lot of these in a big hurry. So the worry about masks and all coming from China is a bit misplaced as we do have one maker. Will it be enough fast enough? TBD… To Be Determined. It depends on how far behind the exponential curve we are already.
So IF, and it is a huge IF, Trump has kicked enough CDC and FDA butt to get things kicked into high gear AND that’s enough to get us ahead of this in the next few weeks, we’ve got a shot at it. If not, well, I’m planning on not leaving home in April or May.
Prior postings in the category: Covid