7 March 2020 Covid-19 California Quarantine & Exponential Math

Well, California quarantined a neighborhood where a Covid-19 case died. (h/t Gail). The video below also mentions it. This isn’t quite the same as other quarantines in that we don’t know if it was just temporary while they collected the guy and disinfected the area, or is it longer due to that whole neighborhood now being suspect and maybe tested?

This is exactly WHY you ALL ought to be prepared to be locked in your house. Perhaps for a day, or perhaps for 2 weeks, or perhaps for 2 months if things are spreading and sequential cases found.

How’s that old jingle go? “When it’s least expected, you’r elected…”

IIRC this was the 1st death in California. There will be more and this scene will play out hundreds of times.

Police-enforced quarantine hits Calif. residential block after man’s coronavirus death

Updated: Fri 12:16 PM, Mar 06, 2020

ROCKLIN, Calif. (KMAX/KOVR/CNN) – Sacramento County Sheriff deputies and Rocklin Police, some wearing protective gloves, converged on a residential street Thursday as a sheriff’s helicopter circled overhead, ordering people to get inside.

Sacramento County Sheriff deputies and Rocklin Police, some wearing protective gloves, converged on this residential street in Rocklin, Calif. (Source: KOVR/KMAX/CNN)
People who live there were unclear why. Officers eventually let them come and go from their homes.

It was later learned that the first California coronavirus patient to die from the illness lived on this block.

The Placer County Health Department issued a brief statement shortly after the police presence, stating: “Law enforcement partners are currently responding to enforce a health officer’s order. We cannot share any additional information to protect patient confidentiality.”

So it looks like they put up a perimeter to keep out looky-loos and paparazzo, but let locals go directly to their homes. As more testing is shown to be essential, I’ll expect this to change to “and test everyone in 100 yards”…

This video has a good analysis of the math of this exponential (from a series tweeted by a lady engineer, Liz Specht, who “gets it”. At about 15 minutes.) and is worth watching / reading the text on the screen.

His mantra is “case, case, case, cluster, cluster, Boom!” with the Boom being when the exponential takes off rapidly. The USA has now already done the “cluster, cluster” what with Washington old folks home and California (both the ship in San Francisco and the sudden added cases in Santa Clara / Solano / Sacramento). Now we’re just waiting for the Boom!

The USA is now over 400 (his video uses an earlier version of the data). Doubling about every 4 days as a guess (not the 6 used in the math / estimate). So 800, 1600 by next weekend and 3200, 6400, 12800 by 12 days later (or 20 days from now). Then it starts to get ugly in April… And that is only using the known confirmed cases and we know there’s a lot more than that out there as no effective testing has been done.

IMHO, California will be a bit of a mess / medical system swamping about mid April. The rest of the USA about 2 to 4 weeks later.

He also shows a graph of age distribution by nation. Italy is #2 in old folks / high risk people, so that might be why so many cases are severe in Italy.

There’s a screen grab of an announcement from a clinic saying “not going to test” that was rapidly taken down after an bit of an uproar. One hopes that was a mistake, and NOT the actual policy being followed. (As that policy would be “let everyone get it and bury the dead”…)

We also find out why the USA test was so late and broken. They decided to make a kit to test for SARS / MERs / SARS-2 all at once, and their hubris caused the flop costing at least 2 and likely 3 weeks of exponential growth. At the end of this, that will likely be at least 10s of thousands and perhaps millions more infected and / or dead.

BTW, while this guy is a ‘gold bug’ he also has a Ph.D. Pathology – so is aware of this stuff and trained in it.

IMHO there’s still a chance we can get ahead of this thing. It has been announced that about 1 million test kits have been sent out, and that a couple of major labs plus various universities are now free of the Obama era FDA rule that said “must get approval first”. (Thank you POTUS Trump!)

Also, POTUS announced that a big contract was handed to 3M, who do still make masks in the USA, for a whole lot of these in a big hurry. So the worry about masks and all coming from China is a bit misplaced as we do have one maker. Will it be enough fast enough? TBD… To Be Determined. It depends on how far behind the exponential curve we are already.

So IF, and it is a huge IF, Trump has kicked enough CDC and FDA butt to get things kicked into high gear AND that’s enough to get us ahead of this in the next few weeks, we’ve got a shot at it. If not, well, I’m planning on not leaving home in April or May.

Prior postings in the category: Covid

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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224 Responses to 7 March 2020 Covid-19 California Quarantine & Exponential Math

  1. vcmathjm says:

    I think some of the Covid posts are missing from the list. The 3/4 is not showing for me for example. Thanks for all your work!

  2. E.M.Smith says:

    Good catch! Looks like I forgot to set category at all on the 4 March posting. Fixed. The others all looked right. And thanks for the appreciation! Makes it worth while. Though mostly I just point at other folks work. I suppose the editorial work matters.

  3. ossqss says:

    How many tests have been done to date in the US?

    With a big number of kits now making it into the functional zone, I would expect a large change in stats the next few days. IIRC, they are going from a 48hr verification either way to about 6 hours now. Hold on to your hats with things. Remember the term, Presumptive until the CDC confirms.

  4. H.R. says:

    E.M. – I think President Trump is ahead of the curve in most respects.

    There’s only so much he can do, but he was doing it a month before anyone had a clue. This is the difference between a man of action and a politician.

    Trump: “I’m hearing noises about a bad, disruptive virus. What needs to be done?….. Well, then do it.
    YSM: How can we make Trump look like an incompetent fool and lessen his chances of reelection?
    President Trump is a problem solver. The YSM and DC denizens are only looking at how they can exploit the Covid-19 for their benefit. Who ya gonna trust?

    There is no upside to the Covid-19. People in the U.S. have already died and there will be more mortalities in the next few weeks and months.

    We should all be happy and relieved if it’s only just as bad as we are witnessing now and goes only a bit further as warranted.

  5. E.M.Smith says:

    Last I’d heard there were sbout 4000 tests done.
    BUT they were only testing to confirm in hospitalized folks and limited screening like on the ship off San Francisco. Folks with mild symptoms were told to go home and get better…

    That MUST change.

    Frankly, I’ll be very happy if the USA jumps up to 200 in the next few days, as that would mean they are testing like theyvought and finding / quarantining folks.


    The Dims in the House sat on funding for about a week playing political games with it. That, too, means thousands more cases and dead at the end state.

    Yeah, I hope the thousands of exposed we’ve let return / run around the country, were not infected. At this point it largely comes down to luck on that count. IF the thousands had just a dozen low symptom spreaders, we’re in the soup by thousands now. If not, and known cases are almost all of them, we can stop this.

  6. ossqss says:

    @EM, We are currently at 444 cases per worldometer. I expect that to follow the NY factor and increase multi-fold in the next few days.

  7. Nancy & John Hultquist says:

    You can do your own map look-up for this:

    A geographic look at 2 coronavirus (COVID-19) hot spots.

    I had wondered why Italy, specifically the northwest inland area, was a center for the coronavirus. The Puget Sound area (100 miles west of Ellensburg) is “close” to Asia, SeaTac Airport is a major gateway, and interactions are numerous. Our area’s cases centered at a nursing home (~100 folks) with health issues that required frequent visits and transfers by Kirkland fire and rescue types. Multiple deaths and spreading came from the facility. It is now a focus of State and Federal intervention. Consider that February is a time of colds and (regular) flu, I do not find it surprising that getting a handle on this involved a few weeks lag time.

    Now look at northwest Italy and the town of Pavia.

    Pavia, Italy has been identified as “ground zero” of the coronavirus outbreak. Geographically this doesn’t make much sense. This is Nowheresville compared to Rome, Paris, or Seattle. So why Pavia?
    The story is here:
    Patient Zero in Italy

    Quote from that source:
    The man believed to be coronavirus patient zero in Italy is a Pakistani migrant refused to self-isolate after testing positive for the virus and continued to deliver food.
    Health authorities asked the man to quarantine himself at his home in the Pavia area for two weeks, but he ignored the request and continued to work at a Chinese restaurant.
    He then compounded the risk of spreading the virus by making home deliveries of Chinese food.

    End quote:

  8. E.M.Smith says:

    OMG. No followup on ‘voluntary’? So he spends a week or more delivering what, 5 / hour x 8 = 40 per day. 280 / week. Call it an average of 3 folks / delivery, so about 840 exposed. Then hand to mouth so likely effective contagion. Figure 400 cases, who give to at least their S.O. and a friend or coworker. That’s 1200 when they start dropping like flies.

    Again, it’s the SuperSpreader events that get you. So the question is how many Superspreaders are in the USA? No testing means you don’t know.

  9. E.M.Smith says:

    4 off the batch from disembarked Diamond Princess passengers (S.F. ship) hsve tested positive in Canada. What about the majority who scattered across thd USA? No testing so crickets….

  10. Bill In Oz says:

    John & Nancy, I suspect that this story is on the money.
    But there are no sources for the report. I would be more comfortable if I could check up his sources.

    Meanwhile a similar if smaller scale event happened with Dr Chris Higgins here in Oz. He got the disease in Denver while on holiday. Developed mild symtumns while on the planes home but then kept working as doctor from last Monday… Lots of patients 70+ ) and all the other staff at his practice and friends.. Another super spreader probably as we are all awaiting the results of testing.

  11. E.M.Smith says:


    Total of 32 now in my county.

    New coronavirus cases reported: Eight more in Santa Clara County, six in San Francisco
    Brings the total of confirmed cases in Santa Clara County to 32

    Then to avoid a 2nd Plague Ship story series:


    The stricken Grand Princess cruise ship is headed to the Port of Oakland, having received permission from Gov. Gavin Newsom to dock there and for its thousands of passengers and crew to disembark, an Oakland councilman said.

    Councilman Larry Reid said he was told by an official at the Port of Oakland that the cruise ship would dock at a terminal in the Outer Harbor that is no longer in operation.

    The vessel is likely to arrive on Sunday afternoon, according to a Saturday night announcement by the ship’s captain to passengers, After docking, it will begin a disembarking process that is likely to take several days.

    Passengers who require acute medical treatment and hospitalization will be transported to health care facilities in California, the captain said. California passengers who don’t require medical care will go to a federally-operated facility for testing and quarantine. He did not specify which facility.

    So that’s a bit of fun…. not!

    But at least they are going to be off the ship. And filling up California hospitals…

  12. Another Ian says:

    “Good sign: South Korea may be getting control of Coronavirus — is this the middle scenario future?”


  13. H.R. says:

    @E.M. re “sitting on it.”

    Yup. I read something about Trump requesting $2.5 billion dollars a week or so ago.

    The DC “elites” smelled blood money in the water and jacked up the appropriation to $4 billion and then $8 billion. The final number was $8.5 billion.

    “Never let a crisis go to waste.” So… our DC overlords didn’t.
    I wouldn’t be unhappy if I had a few $billion in spare change to throw around. That would certainly buy my share of sausage, egg, and cheese biscuits at my local McDonalds.

  14. E.M.Smith says:

    New York cases double overnight and Mayor Deblasio want more Federal $$$. Isn’t N.Y. a wealthy high tax State? Just sayin’

    And if they don’t have the cash at 40 something cases, what will it be like at 40,000?


    New York COVID-19 Cases Surge to 45; Dozens Under Mandatory Quarantine Order

    The number quadrupled in the last few days; as of Friday night, 45 people in New York state were confirmed to be infected

    By Jennifer Millman • Published March 6, 2020 • Updated 4 hours ago

    What to Know
    It remains to be seen how widely COVID-19 will spread in tri-state area after 45 people in New York were confirmed to have the virus Friday, just five days after the first local case was reported
    Twenty-two new cases were added to the total Friday; many of them are connected to the Westchester County lawyer who works in midtown Manhattan
    New Jersey had thee positive samples that had been sent to the CDC for confirmation; Connecticut saw its first case reported Friday

    UPDATE: Tri-State at 93 COVID-19 Cases and Counting

    New York added 22 new coronavirus cases Friday, including four Manhattan cases and more in Westchester County, bringing the state’s total to 45, Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Mayor Bill de Blasio announced.

    Many of the new cases are connected to the Westchester cluster that started with the midtown Manhattan lawyer, the first case of community spread. One of the new Manhattan patients is a man in his 50s who lives on the Upper West Side and is presenting mild symptoms, de Blasio said. The man is married with three daughters ages 8, 10 and 12 — all of whom also are exhibiting mild symptoms, but it wasn’t confirmed if they had the virus. Disease detectives are working to learn more about any close contacts he may have had while contagious.

    Financial and insurance company TIAA sent a memo to employees saying that one of their employees at their offices on Lexington Avenue had tested positive for coronavirus after coming in contact with an already infected individual. That office was closed for cleaning, and would re-open on March 12.

    It will be interesting to see how urgency ramps up as this starts ripping through the NYC Financial moguls and Senior Partners of NYC law firms… I think they will finally figure out that there is something worse than a two week business holday for virus testing… and do more than just deep cleaning the carpets.

  15. A C Osborn says:

    E M, according to the DM online a quarter of Italy’s public are in quarantine, what would that be in the US, about 70 Million?

  16. Another Ian says:

    “Coronavirus: Israeli Health Ministry Wants to Add the USA to its Quarantine List”


    That ought to tart the headlines up

  17. E.M.Smith says:

    @A.C. Osborn:

    Wiki says USA has 328 million population. .1/4 of that is 82 million.

    What the monied class needs to realize is that they WILL shut down commerce : either NOW for a few weeks with minimal sickness while everyone is tested, or in a few weeks via quarantine with the hospitals overrun, medical staff infected and dying, 10% of the population dying due to no effective treatment available, and rampant panic & resentment.

    @Another Ian:

    Looks like Israel gets it.

  18. Saighdear says:

    I Liked that bit POTUS kicked Butt …. Now that in itself is worthy of a re-election for trying to keep the country afloat in the Swamp. …… and can I ask? IF he is re-elected and can maintain this momentum, SHOULD he be asked to continue for a 3rd or even 4th Term ?
    As I see it, Like Putin, keeping a good leader maintains a state of STABILITY – all around.

  19. E.M.Smith says:


    Has some interesting comments at the bottom. Looks like Italy is starting to catch a clue. BUT making an exception to leave the bars open?

    16 days after the beginning of the outbreak, the Italian government took decree today to take exceptional measures to contain about 16 million Italians living in 14 provinces in the north of the country, as well as restrictive measures covering the whole country, valid until April 3: [source]
    Northern Italy under lockdown
    – Lombardy region (entire region, all provinces)
    – Piedmont (provinces of Alessandria, Asti, Novara, Verbano Cusio Ossola, and Vercelli)
    – Veneto(provinces of Padua, Treviso, and Venice)
    – Emilia Romagna (provinces of Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Reggio Emilia, and Rimini)
    – Marche (province of Pesaro Urbino)
    In the above areas:

    Travel in and out of the area, as well as within the area, will only be possible in response to “duly verified professional requirements, emergency situations, or for health reasons”
    People with symptoms of respiratory disease and fever of 37.5 Celsius or above are strongly encouraged to stay at home and limit social contact as much as possible, including with their doctor
    Avoid gathering
    All schools and universities must be closed
    All museums and places of culture will be closed
    All cultural, religious or festive events are suspended
    Cinemas, pubs, theaters, dance schools, game rooms, casinos, nightclubs and other similar places shall remain closed
    All sporting events and competitions are suspended
    Ski resorts are closed until further notice
    Swimming pools, sports halls, thermal baths, cultural centers and wellness centers must suspend their activities
    Bars and restaurants can remain open from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. provided they respect the safety distance of at least 1 meter between customers
    – this provision also concerns other commercial activities
    Shopping centers and department stores must remain closed on public holidays and the days preceding them
    Places of worship remain open, provided that the safety distance of at least 1 meter is respected, but religious ceremonies (marriage, baptism) are prohibited until further notice
    National restrictions
    As in the north of the country, cinemas, theaters, museums, pubs, game rooms, dance schools, discos and other similar places will be closed
    Sports competitions are suspended with some exceptions

    I also think 1 m is too close. 2 might work.

    We’ll find out….

    Descriptions of other new cases show a lot of travel to Italy, or cruise ships as the connection. Then some travel to Iran.

    IMHO, the cruise industry needs to take a halt NOW. Give them a zero interest 10 year loan of enough money to cover 2 months of shutdown, test EVERY crew and give them 2 months wages, and park the ships for a couple of months. It will be far cheaper than a half dozen more plague ships.

    In the USA, it looks like New York is a hot cluster among the well connected (that will aquire a whole new meaning). But shut down Manhattan? Not until the pain is intense on “all the right people”… California is at the front line of general spread. Popping semi-random cases scattered all over. I expect we will get Italy styled Real Soon Now…

    Note: In silicon valley, the phrase Real Soon Now is used sarcastically when asked about a project deadline (often passed). It really means “I have no idea when, but not as soon as you want it”.

    I’m expecting California to be in the Over 100 Club next week. Then Cats among the Pigeons starts.

    Other than emergencies, we’re not leaving the house as of a few days ago.

    Californua, IMHO, about 2 weeks ahead of most of the nation (except NYC and Seattle…).

    Get ready or get run over.

  20. E.M.Smith says:


    Unfortunately, due to the FDR experience almost tipping us into socialism AND hard left tilting the Supreme Court so much we still have not fully recovered: it is illegal to have a 3rd term (and that is likely a good thing… Would The Donald have beaten Obama? Or only the repugnant Shrillary?)

    And, being in the Constitution, would take years to change, if possible at all in practical terms.


    The Twenty-second Amendment (1951) limits an elected president to two terms in office, a total of eight years. However, under some circumstances it is possible for an individual to serve more than eight years. Although nothing in the original frame of government limited how many presidential terms one could serve, the nation’s first president, George Washington, declined to run for a third term, suggesting that two terms of four years were enough for any president. This precedent remained an unwritten rule of the presidency until broken by Franklin D. Roosevelt, who was elected to a third term as president 1940 and in 1944 to a fourth.

    So we learned it was a bad idea….

  21. Saighdear says:

    Aye indeed, but maybe it IS TIME to rethink and start the ball rolling….. Or Donald has to show that he is / can be, magnanimous in victory and have fellow Party members ready to take over whilst still clearing the SWAMP… Aye that’s a great phrase. Here in UK we need the Bog drained – maybe re-spellt too as in Boj ( from BoJo). Commeners / commentators now talking about this green madness, we’re facing, being as big as or Bigger a malevolent state than Brexit was.

  22. jim2 says:

    EMS said: New York cases double overnight and Mayor Deblasio want more Federal $$$. Isn’t N.Y. a wealthy high tax State? Just sayin’

    Yep, that really irks me. Every time they get their butt in some crack they want the rest of us to bail them out. Maybe they should stop spending money on “green” energy, excessive welfare, and all the other liberal “programs” and divert that money to cope with the virus.

  23. jim2 says:

    Red Meat:
    It is almost 90 degrees in Singapore, and the humidity is almost 90 percent. There are over 130 cases of the novel coronavirus there and the country’s officials are hypervigilant, on the lookout for more. People in Singapore may not realize it, but the numbers of cases may remain small, not as much because of public health measures but because the heat and humidity may present a natural barrier to the spread of a respiratory virus.

    By comparison, South Korea and New York currently have temperatures in the low 40s and the humidity is very low, conditions conducive to the spread of respiratory viruses. In South Korea, where over 200,000 people have been tested, there are over 6,000 confirmed cases and the coronavirus continues to spread.


  24. Saighdear says:

    a B I G :-) here – from the Home-Land of the Donald. Crofter to Crofter ( bairns ) – ‘ Aye mun, what’s the Craig ( pronounced Crack) today? to which the Retort is Wide Open & Smelly!)
    and all because you mentioned getting the Butt IN the Crack. Here it goes the other way around – as above! – Just some Sunday afternoon rural entertainment for the World to ponder over.
    I feel i’s kind of relevant to the mentality of some of those Mayorial politician types……

  25. Nancy & John Hultquist says:

    Grand Princess cruise ship: An elder sister-in-law is on that ship.
    I knew she was going on a cruise, but had not paid attention.
    She talked to a family member on Friday. We called Sat., but
    had to leave a message. Confined to her room. What?

  26. David A says:

    I can only think of one rational reason for P Trump comment about keeping people on the cruise ship and his concern about the numbers rising. I am guessing his concern about cases rising is a reflection of his stated concerns about people panicking. (Nothing else makes sense to me)

  27. Nancy & John Hultquist says:

    David A — It makes sense to NOT have a cruise ship dock in normal fashion and have 3,000+ folks disappear into a crowd of family members and others and then disperse without a trace.
    For the Grand Princess cruise ship, procedures are now in place for an orderly disembarking. The Gov. of CA and the POTUS — not the best of friends — have agreed on this issue. It may take 3 days to get all the people off, tested, and proper dispersal accomplished.
    As mentioned above, a sister-in-law is on the ship. Our family will get a first hand report.

  28. Ossqss says:

    Had a discussion on the mask effectiveness issue. It was referenced that the N95 mask was a CDC recommendation for working with Tuberculosis patients. Size does matter in the end.

    “CDC does advise health care workers working with SARS patients to wear a special mask called an N-95 respirator. But even these masks offer limited protection from coronaviruses. The name of the mask says it all. The “95” means the mask, if properly fitted—and that “fit factor” presents a big if—can filter out particles down to 0.3 microns 95 percent of the time. (A human hair is roughly 100 microns in diameter.) Human coronaviruses measure between 0.1 and 0.2 microns, which is one to two times below the cutoff.”

  29. E.M.Smith says:

    @David A.:

    On the ship you have one identified cluster of fixed maximum.

    As soon as they get off:

    You have up to a couple of thousand new hot spots of unlimited size and spread.

    So you are HOPING your testing and quarantine work 100%. They don’t.

    POTUS is old enough to remember real pandemics and that long, effective, hard quarantines work. Being big on money making he has a good grasp of compound interest math and knows what an exponential curve is. He knows how big a FUBAR it is to let those folks scatter to the 4 corners of the wind.

    But he is surrounded by folks with M.D. degrees who are sure in their hubris that “case management” will be enough, are certain they know the character of the virus (when they did not); and folks with Ph.D. after their name whispering how much damage to markets if he stops travel and “causes panic”. He doesn’t have the medical background to call “bullshit” on them, so lets them win the argument. When we hit a few thousand cases (in a few days?) he will start setting “new rules”…

  30. E.M.Smith says:


    That quote is a bit misleading. Infection tends to be dose dependant, so more than a single virus particle. What people spew tends to be particles. What the n95 mask does is catch all those particles and grossly reduce the viral load exposure. Then of the few that get through, many land where they cannot infect. On facial skin. Nose hairs. Mucus. Eventually to be blown out.

    Perfect? Nope. It isn’t a bunny suit with CBW washdown at the end. But if it cuts my risk by 95%, I’m good with that.. IMHO, it may cut risk even more. Per the M.D. who reported from China, aerosol contagion exists but is rare. Social distancing of 2 meters is generally effective. That’s mostly droplets. The N95 mask will work for that.

    THE country with the most experiance AND that has controlled it, has mandated mask use.

  31. E.M.Smith says:

    Worldometer Italy:: OUCH!

    Italy 7,375 +1,492 366 +133

    133 new deaths, almost 1500 new cases. Oh Dear.

  32. David A says:

    Good grief, I never knew the choice was between sending the cruise ship passenger hither and thither to self quarantine, and leaving them on the ship in a half – ass quarantine likely to infect many of them. Group quarantine, especially with common air and small rooms like all the interior rooms on a cruise ship, is demonstrably really big trouble.

    I assumed the choice was on the ship, hopefully done better this time, or to a more professional quarantine area with all private rooms and seperate restrooms and air supply. Were they really thinking about just sending them to home quarantine?

    And I maintain our POTUS gaffed with the referral to the case numbers. I know his mind and comments have beento placate, to not encourage panic, which was a problem with the Spanish flu.
    And he very much hoped to keep the numbers low. Looking very unlikely now.

    Nancy&John, ha a first for me, couple – web handle. I like it.
    My wife and I would likely look like a Gollum Smeagul conversation if we tried that. (-;

  33. philjourdan says:

    sideswiping into politics, the democrats have played this wrong from the start. First they jumped on Trump for the travel ban. But that looks good in retrospect, so you do not see any more talk about that. Then they sat on the money for a week. That does not look in any respect, so they try to use Poo-Parie on it, but that is not working too well either.

    Then there is the real kicker. And it was mentioned above about Italy. Illegal aliens. There is no QC on them, and they are a big factor in spreading the virus (especially since many are Chinese). Trump has been trying to regain control, the democrats have been fighting them, even now (their party platform). But most Americans are smart enough to add 2 and 2 and get 4 (at least after finishing 12 years of public school). The murmuring is already there. The hardest hit spots are sanctuary spots since there is no control over who comes and goes. Indeed, they insist upon it. It is no longer an isolated Steinle case. It is EVERYONE that is being endangered.

    Trump knows this. And he will use it. Even the democrats know this, and refuse to even talk about it because they know it.

  34. E.M.Smith says:

    Oh this is going to put panties in a bunch…

    Not only is it someone who used Vatican medical facilities (so resident or employee), but they attended a big conference with Silicon Valley big wigs.

    A Vatican source said the patient had participated in an international conference hosted by the Pontifical Academy of Life last week in a packed theatre several blocks from the Vatican.

    Participants at the three-day conference on Artificial Intelligence included top executives of U.S. tech giants Microsoft and IBM.

    Oh those juicy junkets for executives and VIPs not looking so good right now….

  35. Bill In Oz says:

    This is worth thinking about :

    The virus causes the body to lose potassium and become hypokalemic.. In this Chinese study from Wuhan all 175 patients stricken with COVID 19 were potassium depleted….And responded well to potassium supplementation.
    As it happens i already take potassium supplements each day. 1020 mg tablets of Potassium Bicarbonate . from Iherb.

  36. Ossqss says:

    Worldometer show mild cases now up to 87%.

  37. Octave Fiddler says:

    Hefe, please truncate if this is too long.
    This is what NorCal docs are being told, from a meeting last week of the
    Infectious Disease Association of California: ,
    (by way of a doc I trust with the lives of my family)

    1. The most common presentation was one week prodrome of myalgias, malaise, cough, low grade fevers gradually leading to more severe trouble breathing in the second week of illness. It is an average of 8 days to development of dyspnea and average 9 days to onset of pneumonia/pneumonitis. It is not like Influenza, which has a classically sudden onset. Fever was not very prominent in several cases. The most consistently present lab finding was lymphopenia (with either leukocytosis or leukopenia). The most consistent radiographic finding was bilateral interstitial/ground glass infiltrates. Aside from that, the other markers (CRP, PCT) were not as consistent.

    2. Co-infection rate with other respiratory viruses like Influenza or RSV is 24 hours apart.

    10. All suggested ramping up alternatives to face-to-face visits, telemedicine, “car visits”, telephone consultation hotlines.

    11. Sutter and other larger hospital systems are using a variety of alternative respiratory triage at the Emergency Departments.

    12. Health Departments (CDPH and OCHD) state the Airborne Infection Isolation Room (AIIR) is the least important of all the suggested measures to reduce exposure. Contact and droplet isolation in a regular room is likely to be just as effective. One heavily affected hospital in San Jose area is placing all “undifferentiated pneumonia” patients not meeting criteria for COVID testing in contact+droplet isolation for 2-3 days while seeing how they respond to empiric treatment and awaiting additional results.

    Own Opinions Only

  38. Octave Fiddler says:

    oops, some self-truncation? Repeat of 2-9
    2. Co-infection rate with other respiratory viruses like Influenza or RSV is 24 hours apart.


  39. Octave Fiddler says:

    Hmm, something wrong. Please delete/edit prior post and replace 2-9 with this;
    Something about using ‘less than’ and ‘greater than’ symbols?

    2. Co-infection rate with other respiratory viruses like Influenza or RSV is less than 2%, interpret that to mean if you have a positive test for another respiratory virus, then you do not test for COVID-19. This is based on large dataset from China.

    3. So far, there have been very few concurrent or subsequent bacterial infections, unlike Influenza where secondary bacterial infections are common and a large source of additional morbidity and mortality.

    4. Patients with underlying cardiopulmonary disease seem to progress with variable rates to ARDS and acute respiratory failure requiring BiPAP then intubation. There may be a component of cardiomyopathy from direct viral infection as well. Intubation is considered “source control” equal to patient wearing a mask, greatly diminishing transmission risk. BiPAP is the opposite, and is an aerosol generating procedure and would require all going into the room to wear PAPRs.

    5. To date, patients with severe disease are most all (excepting those whose families didn’t sign consent) getting Remdesivir from Gilead through compassionate use. However, the expectation is that avenue for getting the drug will likely close shortly. It will be expected that patients would have to enroll in either Gilead’s RCT (5 vs 10 days of Remdesivir) or the NIH’s “Adaptive” RCT (Remdesivir vs. Placebo). Others have tried Kaletra, but didn’t seem to be much benefit.

    6. If our local county HD lab ran out of test kits we could use Quest labs to test. Their test is 24-48 hour turn-around-time. Both Quest and ordering physician would be required to notify Public Health immediately with any positive results. Ordering physician would be responsible for coordinating with the Health Department regarding isolation. Presumably, this would only affect inpatients though since we have decided not to collect specimens ordered by outpatient physicians.

    7. At facilities that had significant numbers of exposed healthcare workers they did allow those with low and moderate risk exposures to return to work well before 14 days. Only HCW with highest risk exposures were excluded for almost the full 14 days (I think 9 days). After return to work, all wore surgical masks while at work until the 14 days period expired. All had temperature check and interview with employee health prior to start of work, also only until the end of the 14 days. Obviously, only asymptomatic individuals were allowed back.

    8. Symptom onset is between 2-9 days post-exposure with median of 5 days. This is from a very large Chinese cohort.

    9. Patients can shed RNA from 1-4 weeks after symptom resolution, but it is unknown if the presence of RNA equals presence of infectious virus. For now, COVID-19 patients are “cleared” of isolation once they have 2 consecutive negative RNA tests collected more than 24 hours apart.


  40. Nancy & John Hultquist says:

    Octave Fiddler says:
    9 March 2020 at 4:01 pm
    Hmm, something wrong. Please delete/edit prior post and replace 2-9 with this;
    Something about using ‘less than’ and ‘greater than’ symbols?

    Instead of using the symbols you mention, I will use a Capital X & Y:
    X =
    XemY The symbols are call left and right angle brackets X/emY
    Doing the actual coding:
    The symbols are called left and right angle brackets

    The brackets enclose the code for what you want to do;
    Sometimes there is more than one way to get a thing done.
    Example, I use the code word strong to get bold text.
    The beginning, as with XstrongY says what to do and the back-slash within X/strongY
    says stop doing that.

    Note: This is not math, it is HTML coding so the less-than & greater-than terminology is best given up. Wipe your brain cells clean, and re-set.
    Hope his helps.

  41. Nancy & John Hultquist says:

    X= less than symbol
    Y = greater than symbol

    Best to look at an actual coding site

  42. E.M.Smith says:

    WordPress “steals” anything between < and > brackets and tries to turn it into html code. When it can’t make sense of it that way, it is just deleted (instead of the more sane “put it back…”).

    You can get around this via Unicode sequences. So & is the general unicode initiator while ; is the terminator and letters in between say what character to make. Ampersand pound; will make the British currency symbol: £ Note there are no spaces in the unicode sequence.

    Amper lt; makes less-than: <
    Amper gt; makes greater-than: >

    Much more here:


  43. E.M.Smith says:

    @Nancy & John H.:

    Technicslly, angle bracket is a different unicode from less than and greater than, that are what most keyboards produce.
    Left angle bracket is numeric unicode #12296;

    Left bracket: 〈
    Left less thn: <

    See the difference?

    Right angle bracket is #12297;

    Right angle: 〉
    Right gt thn: >

    I’ll fix up th O.F. comments when I get time.

  44. Gail Combs says:

    Coronavirus Concerns Lead to Cancellation of Austin’s SXSW

    Map courtesy of NYT

  45. E.M.Smith says:

    I’m right under that deep red spot in California… Lucky me…

    The rest of folks in the USA (other than NYC & Seattle) will be running a few weeks behind me.

    Watching the virus Task force live, they say over 2 million test kits shipped or ready to be ordered. Two commercial labs also have approved kits as of today. So lots more testing soon…

  46. E.M.Smith says:

    Latest data has doubling time of cases outside China at 4 days. Lets match that exponential to the calendar for the USA (EU countries are in much deeper doo on this, starting over 1000 and population about 1/5 or less for even some of the big countries. So the EU will be a week or two ahead on this. So here I start at the very conservative 500 starting cases, then double it in the first column. The second column steps up by 4 days per doubling.

    500     now  (March 9)
    1000    4 days
    2000    8
    4000    12
    8000    16
    16000   20  days (March 29th)
    32000   24  (April 2)
    64k     28
    128k    32
    256k    36  (April 14)
    (hospital system full and collapses)
    512k    40
    1 million  44   ( April 22) 
    (Can we bury 50,000 to 100,000 in 4 days?)
    2 M
    4 M     April 30
    8 M     May 4
    16 M
    32 M
    64 M
    128 M   May 20
    256 M   May 24 
    -Effectively all of the USA is in the doo.

    The good news is we can slow this down with massive testing, quarantines, banning group meetings, stopping flights & cruises, masks, gloves, and lots of social distancing.

    The bad news is we are not presently doing that.

    So mark your calendar and make your plans.

  47. jim2 says:

    I was going to wait a bit longer, but decided to put this out there now. The first day of record (my record) is 3/6. Here is the growth on 3/9 as per cent.

    Thailand (lat/long) 13.736717, 100.523186 4.2%
    Vietnam 14.315424/108.339537 87%
    Singapore 1.351616/103.808053 28%
    Malaysia 3.519863/ 101.538116 40%
    UK 51.509865, -0.118092 176%
    US 39.381266/-97.922211 159%
    Switzerland 46.8181877, 8.2275124 171%

  48. Foyle says:

    Western govts are sheep, Now that Italy has broken the quarantine deadlock – with 0.01% infected Europe will likely follow next week in universal quarantine, other govts around world as well.
    USA states will start next week and most within a month. Eventually USA will bite bullet (prob 2-4 weeks) and do whole country to maximize benefit.

    And then it will be a new normal of general social distancing until we have a vaccine.

    Feeling a bit more optimistic after this news.

  49. E.M.Smith says:


    Yes, Italy going to full quaranteen is good news. A couple of weeks and a few thousand patients late (and couple of hundred deaths…) but nice to see they eventually set aside open borders political crap and had the hubris stomped out of them.

    I sure hope you are right about the rest following suit.

    Stopping this is direct and simple (but not easy).

    1) STOP transport in place. The virus has not legs nor wings and can’t swim. Stop moving people you stop moving virus.

    2) TEST everyone with contact or near where any case is located. Potentially everyone.

    3) ISOLATE & TREAT: All positive test folks.

    4) QUARANTINE anyone with case contact and any place with a case. Radius TBD.

    5) DISINFECT public spaces and private rooms where risk exists.

    6) CANCEL any group events and meetings.

    7) SOCIAL DISTANCING, masks, gloves, hand washing, goggles for all.

    Then you wait 3 weeks.

    As areas are found clear of cases and spread, they are opened to resuming movement, with ongoing social distancing and monitoring. Backslide events restart.

  50. E.M.Smith says:

    Just wondered how much Trump’s ban on foreigners air travel helped in the pandemic. An invalid, but usable, assumption is that the EU big nations have about the same population and exposure to initial infection as the USA. So the USA has 566 cases per worldometers.info right now. Adding up the EU countries down to Denmark at 59 cases, and adding 100 for those below as an eyeball guess, gives:

    12,627 cases in the EU.

    Looking at the doubling time above, that’s about 18 days. So the EU is likely to run out of medical facilities about 3 to 4 weeks from now.

    That’s a really big difference.

  51. ossqss says:

    Just remember EM, there were over a million test kits distributed over the weekend. I think we did maybe 2k tests so far. Things will be changing over the next week.

  52. E.M.Smith says:


    Yup. The live CDC/Virus task force update today said they were shipped and in hands of others now; but it doesn’t look like they have been used much yet. CDC said they would try to get a “tests done” number, but now other folks were doing them so they don’t know right now.

    I think at best we’ll get cases found…

    That’s also why I did the growth calender now, so we can get an insight on hidden cases from not testing so long. Compare what’s in the news going forward to the dates above and you get insight to reality being found with testing.

  53. ossqss says:

    You know, I read several articles over the last week that focused on this virus killing older folks, who many would be high visibility climate skeptics. I found that disgusting, but as a result of what is happening, we could see sub-dollar gas per gallon soon (sorry- not you EM). Talk about a catch 22 for those climate crazy folks.

  54. E.M.Smith says:

    Yeah, but what they miss is that the greedy old farts creating the Climate Fraud are also going to be thinned…

    Though I expect Soros and Algore are likely in bunkers or hiding at a remote sea shore mansion with two sets of gates.

  55. p.g.sharrow says:

    A very interesting prophecy was just brought to my attention:
    credited to Nostradamus who was once a medical doctor that dealt with plagues. Gives a most interesting conclusion to the short and long term nature of this plague…pg

  56. Geoff Cruickshank says:

    Pg Is the one above also Nostradamus? The one that mentions ‘antibiotics’?

  57. Geoff Cruickshank says:

    “I read several articles over the last week that focused on this virus killing older folks,”
    Hope the schadenfreude doesn’t come back to bite them.
    I think some of the young may be taking some false comfort from this commonly repeated meme.
    Last night on tv I saw footage from an Italian hospital with a young fit looking male firmly attached to a ventilator, which, given the pressure they are under, I cannot imagine was just a precaution. I’d say the poor young fellow was pretty sick.

  58. H.R. says:

    @Geoff C, who wrote about: “I’d say the poor young fellow was pretty sick.”

    Over the past couple of weeks we have discussed contributing factors such as smoking, asthma, diabetes, etc. and we also discussed how vitamin D3 could help or maybe explain why some people don’t seem to get much more that cold-like or mild flu symptoms.

    Given that many of our young don’t get outside as much because they are glued to their video games and social media accounts, could it be that the Italian kid wasn’t getting much sunshine?

    I don’t know the possible contributing factors the Italian boy might have had, but I am thinking that in the U.S. we have a lot of basement-dwelling ‘kids’ (6 – 30! years old) who are short on vitamin D3 and pre-diabetic due to a high sugar/carbohydrate diet. The U.S. is probably going to find that we lose a lot of young people to COVID-19 that would have been unaffected compared to the kids of the ’50s, ’60s, and ’70s.

    Anyhow, Geoff, your comment rang that little bell in my head. Nowadays, we just don’t have parents telling their kids to “Go outside and play and don’t come back ’til dinnertime.” We may pay a high price for indulging our kids with video games, sweet drinks, and salty carb snacks.

  59. E.M.Smith says:


    Today, the Public Health Department is announcing a mandatory order issued by the Public Health Officer requiring the cancellation of mass gatherings in the County. This order will take effect at 12:00 a.m. on March 11, 2020 and will remain in place for three weeks as more widespread testing becomes available and we are able to learn more about the spread of COVID-19.
    Date of Order: March 9, 2020

    Order of the Health Officer of the County of Santa Clara imposing a Countywide Moratorium on Mass Gatherings of 1,000 or more persons to mitigate the spread of Covid-19.

    So I guess they figure spreading it by 999 at a time is OK… /sarc;

    Coming soon to a county near you….


    That doesn’t read like a quatrain. Nostradamis wrote in a more poetic fashion, and I don’t remenber numerical dates being used. The photoed page reads like a summary of various predictions from multiple parties.

    @Per age & D:

    Many elderly care facilities do not have opportunities to get some sun. People in beds or recreation rooms or cafeteria. Diets low in expensive organ meats, discouraging sources like eggs, cheeses, fatty fish on “medical advice”.

    I’d not be surprised if much of the difference were just Vit A, D, E and C.

    How that applies to modern kids? Not going to be pretty… Then there’s that whole malnourished vegan community. Yes, you can do that right and well, but it isn’t easy and often done badly.

    FWIW, spouse and I are doing a half hour “sunning” between 10 AM – 2PM daily weather permitting (which it does about 3/4 of the days here). This can make lots of Vit- D to the tune of 10k I.U. But I wonder just how much less with our quiet sun than when measured “back when”. I’ve not even come close to a sunburn since about 2005, despite lots of sun. Prior to 1999 I was good for about 20 minutes, max, near noon in summer. I remember commenting on the change in UV and my lack of burn.


    Says I ought to be seeing some risk at mid day, being of the red head gene, but after several days of noon garden time, nothing. This graph of 2010 data for March puts me in about a 4 zone. Not much at all. 11 has significant risk.
    While https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/uv_index/uvi_map.gif
    Also has a 4.

    Maybe I’ll try 2 hours today….

    There’s good evidence that under 4000 IU D folks are below optimal, yet current medical advice puts that at absolute max. Silly when a bit of summer sun can make 20,000 in your skin.

    BTW, Worldometer shows USA starting to jump. I think the kits are being used. USA at 729 as I type, so likely in the Kilo Club by tomorrow.

  60. Bill In Oz says:

    E M best to include good sources of potassium along with those vitamins …
    ‘Low salt’ ( with 50% potassium chloride ) or potassium bicarbonate for example.

  61. Gail Combs says:

    I think that E.M. is correct, the elderly are more vulnerable because of the crappy diet found in old folks homes. Very high on CHEAP carbs, light on meat, ESPECIALLY FATS and fresh fruit and veggies. (Chicken and canned veggies are cheapest. Beef is expensive and difficult to prepare for a large group.) We ran into this with my father-in-law. He went down hill very fast once in a care facility where the food was crap.

    Lack of exercise is another problem. I had a bout of pneumonia. Two years later I started running five miles. For a couple of weeks after each run I coughed up stuff that had remained deep in my lungs. I wasn’t sick and the coughing stopped after about 15 minutes.

    Decent video from a British doctor on Vitamin D. and why daily does are best.

    He runs through a meta-data study. (combined data study of ~10,000 people) and finds daily doses of Vitamin D are best. NO ADVERSE EFFECT FROM TOO MUCH VITAMIN D.

    What is interesting is at the very end, he mentions that vitamin D PROTECTS against massive immune response that is the killer with this Wuhan Virus.

    Good twitter thread on WHY washing with soap works from a from an Icelandic chemistry professor specializing in supramolecular chemistry:


    Nice round-up of what is known
    View at Medium.com

    Photo from above article.

  62. David A says:

    It would be helpful if we knew the number of tests each day and the number of pneumonia cases as well, and compared to a historical record. ( For all nations)

  63. Gail Combs says:

    Bill In Oz
    I use NoSalt a sodium free KCl product by French’s food company. I figure they dump so much NaCl salt in everything I do not need any more NaCl.

    OH, and do not forget the selenium and iodine to keep your thyroid in good shape. The USA diet is now poor in iodine since they took it out of the salt used commercially and put bromine in bread instead of iodine.
    Beware the Bromine

    Bromine and thyroid hormone activity.

  64. E.M.Smith says:

    @Bill In Oz:

    Odd you mention that… for a few years, I’ve added about 10% KCl to my NaCl shaker.


    I’ve seen iodine back in some bread. I think it’s catching on.

    BTW, Dr. John Campbell is a PhD. not M.D. but is a licenced nurse. Thesis was on teaching medical topics, so well suited to task.

    I have another video on Vit D queued up. Similar points but more technical.

    @David A:

    Yes, it would, but devolving testing to distributed labs has preceeded data gathering requirements, so data lagging.

  65. H.R. says:

    E.M.: “Then there’s that whole malnourished vegan community. Yes, you can do that right and well, but it isn’t easy and often done badly.”

    Mrs. H.R. has a recently retired friend who has been traveling the World with her hubby to all of the bucket list places and all points in-between. They have a house in Hawaii and one in Alaska.

    The Mrs. told me her friend posted pictures from one of the grocery stores that was hit by panic buying. The hubby took pictures (?)* – or ran across them?* – of the empty and near empty shelves and then one picture of the vegan foods section which was stocked chock full.

    From this I conclude that…
    a) vegans aren’t panicking
    ii) Non-vegans won’t touch the stuff unless it’s the food source of last resort.

    *Not 100% sure, but the way they have been traveling, I understood it from my wife that he took the pictures. Regardless, the point remains that if it’s looking grim to score some food, hit the vegan section of the store.

  66. E.M.Smith says:

    Best way to do vegan is to avoid the immitation meat foods like faux turkey tofurkey. It doesn’t taste quite right and isn’t needed. We’re I eating vegetarian again, I’d not bother. You can make better tasting straight dishes.

    There’s only a few significant nutrients hard to get right without animal products BUT you must get them right and it isn’t obvious. Off the top of my head, a couple of bits:

    Vit D – better like fermented soy (natto) or have sun schedule. Or know to pick mushrooms with sun exposure. After that it gets thin.

    Omega-3. Flax is your friend because fish and fish oils and grass fed ruminants off the list. Ditto omega-3 eggs.

    B12 – easier, as you do make some in your gut, but needs watching. Supplements help. Some other B vits ought to be watched.

    Protein – focused on way too much and easy to fix. Eat mixed grains & legumes or leaves and move on.

    There’s a few others, but you get the idea. Flax? Sunned mushrooms? Not on most shopping lists or store shelves.

    Ovo-lacto vegetarian or pescetarian is vastly easier.

  67. Gail Combs says:

    I am not too worried about food. We just put a nice big 200+ pound ram in the freezer (nasty S.O.B.) and will put a nice 100 pound buck goat in the freezer during the next week or so. Meanwhile I have been raiding the frozen veggie section of the groc. store.

    Hubby gave me a second freezer for my birthday so we now have a chest freezer for long term storage and an upright freezer in the kitchen for more frequent use. In a ‘light bulb’ moment I figured out that milk crates made wonderful containers to store the frozen food in so the stuff at the bottom doesn’t end up down there for decades. With an arthritic back, NOT having to reach to the floor is a major win. Plus if you stock the crates right you have a selection of meat and veggies in each milk crate and just grab a crate and haul it into the kitchen. (Less frozen fingers…)

    The only disadvantage is you do not use every inch of available space.

    OH, and when they were on sale during thanksgiving, I bought four 20+ pound turkeys. Three are now sliced pre-cooked frozen turkey and soup.

  68. agimarc says:

    Observations from AK:

    – We are a major hub for Cathay Pacific and ChiCom cargo. Both offices at ANC were locked up tighter than a drum mid-Feb. Usually see pax & crew around town. None for at least a month. I’d say we got lucky with Trump shutting down air traffic.
    – in turn, our major air hub is Seattle, usually via Alaska Air. Nothing yet into town from there as yet.
    – Major run on stuff as local Costos. Heavy traffic the last 10 days with LOTS of rice, TP, beans, cleaning supplies being purchased.
    – Unhappily, dems on the ANC Assembly removed a couple chunks of safety margin passing a ban on disposable plastic shopping bags and coddling a growing homeless population (yes, we’ve got a democrat mayor, originally from SF).
    – Looks like the cruise ship traffic will be hard shut down this summer. Coastal cities are starting to get worried.
    – Likewise, $20/bbl oil isn’t gonna do the state budget any good this year.

    Final little story comes courtesy Senator Tom Cotton on Brian Kilmeade this morning. Appears that Pelosi is taking Real Good Care of her trial lawyer buddies as usual. There was an attempt to amend the $8.5b legislation to add protection for medical supply companies to ramp up production of the anti-viral masks. Pelosi refused to allow the amendments. Reported by Politico as a “kerfuffle” rather than business as usual from the left. Cheers –


  69. E.M.Smith says:

    We had a big chest freezer on the back porch from about age 7. I still miss it.

    We’d fill it once a year and it was great to have. The restaurant had two more. I’d also love to have an enclosed back room / porch again…

  70. E.M.Smith says:


    Sorry to hear that The Last Frontier is being Californicated.

  71. Ossqss says:

    So it appears that the Governor of NY has locked down a city, including use of the national guard.

    “Update (1235ET): New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced during his daily press update on Tuesday that he is establishing a ‘containment zone’ in the city of New Rochelle, the epicenter of the state’s outbreak. All schools and businesses within one mile of the Westchester town will be closed for two weeks, and the National Guard will be sent in to help local police maintain order.”

    Anyone remember that movie “Escape from NY”?

  72. Ossqss says:

    It appears the worldometer severe / critical % of active cases has now dropped to 12%. We will see if that is an artifact of rapid testing/reporting in the near term.

  73. David Peterson says:

    Not sure if this is the right way to post this but I couldn’t figure out how to contact the moderator of this wordpress directly.

    Larry Ledwick, an active member of this blog who was a good friend of mine, and shared many links from here with me, has passed away.

    I know he enjoyed chatting with all of you frequently, and I am going to miss him a lot. I can follow up to this post if anyone is interested. Sorry if this was not the correct place to post this.

  74. Gail Combs says:

    NC just added another five.

    They were infected at a BioGen conference in BOSTON at the Marriott Long Wharf hotel on February 26 – 27. The conference was for 175 top BioGen managers from around the world.
    This conference has yielded at least 30 attendees so far who have tested positive for the virus.

    So these people have been wandering around the Raleigh area for at least 10 days before being IDed.

    “Five of the six Wake County patients had traveled to Boston to attend a Biogen company conference, state officials said. The seventh patient lives in Chatham County.”

    North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper declares state of emergency over coronavirus

  75. Gail Combs says:

    Looks like some Dad must have read the school the riot act and jumped on the county’s officials.

    An older sister went to Italy, came home and tested positive (not CDC confirmed) she is quarantined AT HOME. Her Dad broke quarantine to take the younger sister to the father – daughter dance at the local school and the younger sister also attended classes Thursday and Friday.

    A county official told the family if they break quarantine again the county would get a court order to force them to stay home.

    WHY doesn’t the county get that court order NOW? The younger kid and the dad just spread the virus throughout the school. This is a wealthy neighborhood and that idiot Dad may be in deep trouble — aka lawsuits — if the virus spreads due to his selfish actions.


  76. Gail Combs says:

    This is the English translation of a post of another ICU physician in Bergamo, Dr. Daniele Macchini.


  77. David A says:

    As the older China cases clear, I expect the critical list to lower, until the ROW cases age. In other words, I expect an S in the chart, just like their is now for total cases.

  78. jim2 says:

    By the J.H. dashboard numbers, cases in the US have quadrupled in just FOUR days. In Vietnam, cases have doubled in that time. The other tropical countries I’m tracking are also moving up, but much more slowly.

  79. Gail Combs says:

    Remember Nancy Messonnier of the CDC completely F…k-up the testing in the USA until VP Pence took over a few days ago. The USA could EASILY have tens of thousands of cases. Since only 5% or less of the hospitalized ‘influenza’ cases are actually tested, the hospitalizations and deaths could easily go unreported.

    This flu season is up to the #2 slot for accumulated hospitalizations for the decade and still climbing steeply.

    On January 29th — “At least 7,711 cases of Wuhan coronavirus have been confirmed in China, by February 8, that had grown to about 34,700 in China most of who would have been contagious before the Trump’s lock down.

    And what to we hear from the idiots in the CDC???

    Only 405 tests were done & 195 tests were for those in quarantine from returning from Wuhan. On top of that only three states received test kits that actually worked.

    To quote Dear Nancy M. from her phone interview with the media on Feb 21st:
    ”We obviously would not want to use anything but the most perfect possible kits, since we’re making determinations about whether people have COVID-19 or not. So that is still where we are.” She also told the media they are having to REFORMULATE the reagent in the test kits and are waiting on the FDA to make sure the tests are ‘PERFECT’

  80. jim2 says:

    GC – Right, there was a misfire on the first round of tests produced. They didn’t work correctly. And then there was an Obama-era regulation where the Fed told the States and everyone else they couldn’t make tests on their own. Trump nuked that one. That said, there has been a combination of underestimating the spread rate of this and fear of causing an unnecessary panic. It seems they are only now getting really worried. One of the members of Pence’s team just said (Wednesday night) the virus WILL get to your community, so that’s a good change.

  81. E.M.Smith says:

    @David Peterson:

    Per your posting: https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/03/08/7-march-2020-covid-19-california-quarantine-exponential-math/#comment-126369

    Here is fine. There is no really right or wrong way to share sad news. Larry will be sorely missed. I’m saddened to hear of his passing. I’d intended a “meet and greet” with Larry this spring. Now too late.

    Hopefully his passing was peaceful.

    I feel like I’ve lost a friend and fellow traveler.

  82. ossqss says:

    Oh my,,,, I am so sorry to hear of the news on Larry.

    Please let us know if there is anyway we can help celebrate the time he had on this earth, charities to contribute to in his name, anything. He was a great and knowledgeable man and will never be forgotten.

    I just put one of my lifelong friends, as requested, to rest his favorite fishing spot last week South of Tampa Bay.

    Larry will be missed, very much.

    Rest in Peace Larry

  83. Gail Combs says:

    Me too E.M.
    I am so sorry to hear this news. I will miss his wisdom.

  84. Quail says:

    Very sad to hear about Larry. His posts were always worth reading.

  85. M Simon says:

    I have been vacationing at the hospital for a few hays. The vacation is over. They got their pound of flesh. (Dead meat.)

    A nurse in admin told me the hospital (in Winnebago County IL.) was preparing. She seemed optimistic until I reminded her that they had a good chance of being overloaded down the road. She agreed. So far no reported cases in the county.

    On Gutfield Five I learned that there are a million hospital beds in America with 200K available for surges.

    I’m thinking of giving up hospitals for Lent. Maybe Christmas too.

  86. Geoff Cruickshank says:

    I too am very sad to hear the news of Larry.
    It’s autumn here and the sun still has some kick in it. Working in the garden this morning, I had my shirt off for a while. The freezer is full of meat, the potato box is full, the onions and garlic are hanging in plaits on the wall, pumpkins are nearly ready, tomatoes getting in to full swing, beetroot is pickled and cucumber too, still picking beans; leeks, cabbage, broccoli, swede, spinach, chard, all a-growing for winter. I think we’re nearly set for isolation for a while, but I wish I had a housecow!

  87. Alison says:

    E.M. – We are fortunate to have Gail Combs constantly updating us with valuable information from your website, and she posted tonight about Larry’s passing, saying that much of what she shares with us is sourced from Larry. I just want you to know we share our gratitude for everything that you, Larry and Gail pass along to others, and we share your sorrow at Larry’s passing.

    God Bless you all, and thank you.

    Alison, a reader at wqth.wordpress.com

  88. M Simon says:

    Man am I sorry about Larry. He was good for information and conversation.

    Gail Combs says:
    11 March 2020 at 1:09 am

    Pence skrewed the pooch. The admin has done a despicable job on testing. They knew testing was in trouble by 14 Feb. Nearly a month has passed. They couldn’t buy open market tests kits? Europe is using them.

    Key Missteps at the CDC Have Set Back Its Ability to Detect the Potential Spread of Coronavirus

    The CDC announced on Feb. 14 that surveillance testing would begin in five key cities, New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle. That effort has not yet begun. *[When the article was written.]

    And Trump is finally talking sense. Effectively ==> “We have to ride this out.”

    Exponentials die when they run out of food. i.e not lomg after thyey peak.

  89. Rodney Short says:

    Rest in peace Larry…

  90. M Simon says:

    When I got out of surgery, I was told to breath deep regularly to reduce the risk of pneumonia. Deep breathing improves health. I’ve been doing it since I was 25
    This is the test meter they gave me to test my progress (biofeedback). It measures inhalation. My doctor said I should be good at bong hits. I said that was a possibility.



  91. Bill In Oz says:

    This has just been posted on Thailand Medical News.
    It’s the best explanation I have read of what is going on in the USA and the enormous stuff up that the CDC has inflicted on the US people.
    I think it’s time for time for Australia to quarantine all travellers from the USA.

    “US CDC Flawed Coronavirus Test Strategy Has Helped Massive Coronavirus Spread
    Source: US Coronavirus News Mar 11, 2020 5 hours ago
    US Coronavirus Updates: As of Wednesday 11th March 2020, 0630hrs , there are 986 confirmed Covid-19 cases in 36 out of 50 States In the US and a total of 31 deaths so far.

    But is even more disturbing is that there could be more than 9,000 silent spreaders of the disease since January in the country and many healthcare facilities in the US have been misdiagnosing severe conditions of the disease among patients for the last two months as other forms of non-zoonotic coronavirus infected diseases and even as the influenza. New revelations are indicating that certain deaths in the last two months that were reported as due to pneumonia and influenza could have actually been due to the new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that causes the deadly Covid-19 disease which can have long incubation periods.

    The US CDC and NIH has on a whole failed the country and even worst the CDC management for the diagnostic criteria and also its management of test kits production has only accelerated the spread of the disease indirectly.

    Contrary to the fact that America has superior healthcare facilities, its current system is not the lease prepared for what is coming in the next few weeks. As of today, the problem of diagnostic test kits has not been resolved with many States complaining of an acute shortage of diagnostic test kits.

    Reports in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) on Monday by epidemiologists from Johns Hopkins University and Stanford University said the failings had contributed to the virus taking root in communities across the country.

    As of Sunday, 8th of March, only 1,707 Americans have managed to have been tested, according to Business Insider, citing data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

    South Korea, which announced its first case on the same day as the US, had tested more than 189,000 people, the publication added.

    The researchers of the JAMA report wrote that the only test initially authorized was one developed by the CDC.
    The US CDC relied on the same technology as one authorized by the World Health Organization (WHO) and deployed around the world except that a fault meant the CDC kit was returning inconclusive results.

    Only on the 29th of February, the date of the first US death and more than a month after the first confirmed US case, that the Food and Drug Administration lifted a ban on state laboratories developing their own kits based on the WHO’s tests.

    The US CDC announced Monday it has testing capacity in 78 state and local public health labs, with 75,000 kits available nationwide and more by mid-March. However checks showed than less than 27,000 test kits was actually available for a populations of more than 327 million people.

    The clueless President Donald Trump told a White House news conference, “When people need a test, they can get a test. When the professionals need to test more people they can get the tests.”

    His administration had initially promised to have one million kits in place by the end of last week but nothing materialized.

    Dr Michelle Mello of Stanford, a co-author of the report told Thailand Medical News, “Adopting broader testing criteria and allowing use of a wider range of tests would have been helpful in identifying the first US cases and containing the spread,”

    She added, “Manufacturing problems like the one that arose with CDC’s test are always a risk, but the fact that CDC put all its eggs in that one basket made the manufacturing snafu highly consequential.”

    The US CDC was initially only testing people with known exposure, meaning a Californian patient on a ventilator was denied the test for five days, the patient’s doctors said.

    The diagnostic criteria were changed as a result of this case.

    Dr Mello also pointed to several inaccuracies in White House communications on the epidemic from declaring that containment efforts were “close to airtight” to claiming a vaccine could be ready within three to four months.
    She further added, “The public messaging from Washington about the seriousness of the problem has been neither consistent nor accurate, and I worry it may have led Americans to take fewer steps to prevent community transmission than we should have”

    Many epidemiologists are anticipating a massive rise in sick cases in the US over the next few weeks due to the total incompetence of the CDC and health officials in the US.”

    link : https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/us-cdc-flawed-coronavirus-test-strategy-has-helped-massive-coronavirus-spread

    Lots of people have flown to other countries from the USA thinking they were not infected with Corona 19 Virus as they flew home to countries such as Australia where they then infected other people.

    The CDC management there in the USA has a lot to answer for. I hope that Trump can hold them accountable and move them sideways ‘somewhere where they cannot do any harm’.

  92. Bill In Oz says:

    I too have been missing Larry & his ongoing commitment to getting the facts before us. It is a sad day !

  93. M Simon says:

    The admin nurse at the hospital I visited said in our discussion flu season was unusually heavy this year.

  94. Gail Combs says:

    M Simon,

    DO not discount sabotage from below. Trump was saddled with a bureaucracy he could not fire (easily) who are hell bent on sabotaging everything and anything he might do in order to remove him from office. AND there are over 8 thousand of them in a very good position to do so. They are called the Senior Executive Service. (McCabe was SES)

    Senior Executive Service: Members of the Senior Executive Service (SES) work in key positions just below the top presidential appointees, bridging the gap between the political leaders and the civil service throughout the federal government.

    The Senior Executive Service (SES) in 2016 had 8,156 members who were appointees. Obama appointed over 7,000 of them to these key positions. Most of these appointees do not arise from inside the respective agencies through a merit system and often are not qualified thanks to an Obama E.O that directed the normal qualifying procedures be bypassed.

    SEE: Executive Order 13714—Strengthening the Senior Executive Service.

    Click to access 2015-32060.pdf

    The Senior Executive Service (SES) lead America’s workforce. As the keystone of the Civil Service Reform Act of 1978, the SES was established to “…ensure that the executive management of the Government of the United States is responsive to the needs, policies, and goals of the Nation and otherwise is of the highest quality.” These leaders possess well-honed executive skills and share a broad perspective on government and a public service commitment that is grounded in the Constitution.

    Members of the SES serve in the key positions just below the top Presidential appointees. SES members are the major link between these appointees and the rest of the Federal workforce. They operate and oversee nearly every government activity in approximately 75 Federal agencies…..

    Members of the SES are the permanent bureaucracy that runs the US government no matter who we elect and as Obama holdovers they HATE TRUMP’s GUTS.

    All you had to do is listen to the testimony at the impeachment where they talked of President Trump trying to override THEIR foreign Policy. Or read the Whistleblower’s lawyer talking about over throwing the Trump presidency early in 2017.

    The ‘whistleblower’ Eric ‘cinderella’ and a colleague, Sean Misko, were Obama administration holdovers

    Sean Misko spoke with Eric about the need to “take out,” or remove, President Trump. Later he went to work for Rep. Adam Schiff’s committee.

    Mark Zaid: The whistleblower lawyer tweeted that a “coup has started” around the same time former colleagues say they overheard Ciaramella and Misko conspiring to remove Trump.

    FROM: https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2020/01/22/whistleblower_was_overheard_in_17_discussing_with_ally_how_to_remove_trump_121701.html
    By Paul Sperry, RealClearInvestigations


    Prior to the election the campaign manager for Barack Obama tweeted:
    ” It is not enough to simply beat Trump. He must be destroyed thoroughly. HIS KIND must not rise again.” — David Plouffe June 13, 2016

    So yes, I think it is very likely it was SABOTAGE. President Trump has a country to run he can not second guess every single move the 7 to 9 million federal employees make.

    On January 29, 2020 President Trump formed the Coronavirus Task Force. When it became obvious he was being sabotaged he appointed VP Pence to oversee the subversive bureaucrats in that task force.

  95. David A says:

    @David Peterson, so sad to hear about Larry L passing away. Our world has changed, and after years of reading a person’s postings, you feel that you get to know them. Larry was clearly brilliant, and somehow it felt like there was a quiet humbleness about him as well. All the best to his family and friends.

  96. Gail Combs says:

    This year was the second worse for the decade.

    On March 2nd, 2020, Xijing Hospital of China sponsored a clinical trial titled “Nitric Oxide Gas Inhalation for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in COVID-19”, with Massachusetts General Hospital as one of the collaborators. This randomized clinical trial aims to use nitric oxide to prevent the progression of COVID-19 [45].


    Older paper from 2005:
    Looks at nitric oxide and the SARS virus

    And from 2009

  97. Bill In Oz says:

    The regulation establishing the SES, is a regulation. The president can cancel it I presume ? And issue a replacement ?.

  98. beththeserf says:

    So sad to hear of Larry Ledwick’s death. He will be sadly missed on this blog and I’m sure by many other friends.

  99. Steve C says:

    That’s thoroughly depressing news about Larry Ledwick to wake up to. His comments here were always worth reading, and there are one or two discussions it’s now too late for me to have with him. R.I.P., Larry, you will be much missed.

    I had been intending just to give a local report from Nottingham UK as our national count heads for 400, but cannot fail to note our useless Gov’t’s slackness in dealing with the situation. I’m fed up with reading over & again how *yet another* plane has landed from some CV hotspot and its hundreds of passengers simply left to suit themselves – usually doing nothing at all because it might inconvenience them. Very poor leadership. At least one of our MPs is now known to be infected (Nadine Dorries) and she may have passed it on to Boris Johnson, a case, if so, of slackness returning to bite the slacker.

    Here in the city, we now have two cases. One of these recently returned from S. Korea, the second is a family member of the first. There are also three cases in the county, all three apparently lately back from Italy. We all *hope* the confirmed cases are suitably isolated in Queen’s Medical Centre, a good hospital a couple of miles out from the city centre but right next to the University campus (it’s also a teaching hospital). There are also a fair number of Chinese students in town, touch wood, but let’s hope QMC is up to the containment meanwhile.

    As an elder male (69 in a couple of months), and a smoker, who has long been popular with all respiratory ‘bugs’, I’m not panicking. I’m just trying to keep my levels of Vit C (colds) and Vit D (immune system) up, and having seen the recent comments here about potassium I might add that into the mix to be a little readier. Beyond that, I’m basically trusting to my intrinsic bloodymindedness and my grizzled old immune system which has seen off every invader for over 60 years, even unto poliomyelitis: if it’s not up to it, well at least I’m pretty close to my threescore years and ten so no great tragedy either way. We’ll see.

    So far I haven’t seen any shelf-stripping in local supermarkets or had trouble getting anything – just as well, as I simply don’t have room for months’ worth of stock. Only a few people are wearing any sort of facemask. I have, mind, seen an article in one of our papers claiming that our NHS doesn’t even have sufficient stock of pukka facemasks for all its own emergency staff; if this is hardly encouraging for the rest of us it must be even less so for the staff concerned. Maybe time for a little ‘home-brewing’: a bit of old towel soaked in hydrogen peroxide(*) and a length of wire coathanger to shape it around the nose – if I need any more I’ll get to work on my ex-lab full-face protection helmet (!).
    (*): Its emissions of oxygen being rather preferable (to me) to the chlorine from bleach products, while it’s still decently effective at oxidising unwanted microscopic invaders.

  100. Gail Combs says:

    “The regulation establishing the SES, is a regulation.”

    No, unfortunately it is a 1968 law signed by Carter.

    There was an E.O by Obama that can be rescinded that remove the SES members from the normal vetting process.

    Executive Order 13714—Strengthening the Senior Executive Service.

    Click to access 2015-32060.pdf

    ….(iii) Within 90 days of the date of this order, OPM shall evaluate the current Qualifications Review Board (QRB) process and issue guidance to agencies about materials that would be acceptable for QRB consideration and that will serve as an alternative or replacement to the current lengthy essay requirement for QRB submission, which may deter qualified applicants for SES positions or put an additional burden on human resources staff. The guidance shall also advise agencies about ways to streamline their initial application requirements for SES positions, including evaluation of options, such as allowing individuals to apply by only submitting a resume-based application and any additional materials necessary to determine relevant qualifications, consistent with the new QRB submission requirements.

    (iv) Within 120 days of OPM issuing the guidance described in section 3(a)(iii) of this order, the heads of agencies with SES positions shall examine the agency’s career SES hiring process and make changes to the process to make it more efficient, effective, and less burdensome for all participants. Agencies shall simplify the initial application requirements for SES positions consistent with the guidance issued in section 3(a)(iii) of this order, and should only request critically necessary technical qualifications, with the goal of minimizing requirements that may deter qualified applicants from applying….

    You know like the requirement that you not have a criminal record or belong to subversive organizations or be members of the Communist party or Muslim Brotherhood or ISIS or MS13….

  101. Gail Combs says:

    Do take a look at those papers guys, they looks promising:


    ….REDOX, Nitric Oxide & Vitamin C – The BH4 Connection
    Ascorbic acid [vit.C] is widely known for its antioxidant properties. The true function of this ancient molecule as a REDOX balancer is quite underappreciated [81]. The ability of ascorbic acid to donate and accept electrons in various vital processes including the production of nitric oxide [68]; regulation of hypoxia and immune responses; maintaining membrane potential; and reducing oxidative stress all highlight the importance of this molecule as an effective and integral part of therapeutic interventions that can resolve various challenges presented by SARS-CoV-2…..

    the 2005 paper shows Nitric Oxide prevents SARS from replicating in the cells they were using as test material.

  102. Sylvia Avery says:

    I’m only a lurker, but I was shocked and saddened to read that Larry had passed. I enjoyed his contributions very much. He will be missed. My condolences to you all.

  103. A C Osborn says:

    Sorry ot hear about Larry, he will be missed on here.
    Condolences to his family & friends.

  104. jim2 says:

    I loved Larry’s comments and will miss him greatly. He had great life experience and was very intelligent. If someone could share his obit, I would like to read it.

  105. llanfar says:

    I miss Larry Ledwick and pray his passing was peaceful.

  106. Simon Derricutt says:

    Condolences to Larry’s friends and family. I’m sure he will be sorely missed, since his contributions were huge and he knew a lot in a lot of diverse subjects. One of the people I’d like to have met.

  107. H.R. says:

    @David Peterson:

    Thank you for thinking of us and giving us the news of Larry’s passing. He will be sorely missed here.

    Larry’s absence left a hole too big not to notice. We have a lot of long-time posters here who, for whatever reason, don’t post comments for a while, sometimes a long while. But they check in from time to time so regular readers here know they are around and about and OK.

    Larry never took more than a few days off at most from commenting here. He had mentioned he enjoyed the broad range of topics that pop up here, usually geeky topics, because Larry was a bit geeky himself as are most of us here. We all have the geek gene to greater and lesser degrees.

    I’ve always scoffed a bit at the term ‘closure’ but in this instance, I am sincerely glad you took the time to find E.M.’s blog and let us all know that Larry passed away. We would have puzzled over his absence for a long time without the closure you have provided.

    Thanks again, David Peterson. I’m sure you will be missing Larry too, as will we all.

    Rest in peace, Larry ‘Hotrod’ Ledwick.

  108. cdquarles says:

    Ah, sad to hear about Larry. RIP, friend. I had my last angioplasty yesterday. Locally, an effort to house cases at Fort McClellan was nixed. The facility holds EMA training, but is *not* capable of handling a full quarantine. No cases known here, to date; but EMA is ramping up, since we don’t expect to be clear of it forever.

  109. Gail Combs says:

    I passed on the news about Larry last night. The ladies & gents express their condolences. His wisdom, which I shared was much appreciated.

    He will be missed.

  110. agimarc says:

    Godspeed Larry Ledwick. Prayers for him, his family and loved ones. Thank you David Peterson for posting the sad news. Regards –

  111. M Simon says:

    Gail Combs says:
    11 March 2020 at 5:36 am

    I have had people who worked for me or even those who directed me try to sabotage me. You minimize it by reports and documents. And most of all RESULTS.

    A daily account of kits produced. A list of all problems especially logistical problems. Corrective action to be taken. Meetings with accomplishment reports every four hours at the start.

    You MANAGE the problem. I like our President. A lot. On this one he dropped the ball.

  112. M Simon says:

    The President let his management go slack.

    He doesn’t do coverup well. It looks unseemly.

  113. Ossqss says:

    Couple tidbits.

    Looks like serious/criitcal cases has ticked down to 11% of active cases today, continueing the trend. Italy went up over 2,300. Worldometer.

    3 TSA folks tested positive in California, San Jose I think, not sure.

    Starting to see more restaurant employees test positive. Not a good vector to see grow.

    Much talk of the doubling factor being 5-10 day. 8 was referenced a couple times.

    Formal designation by WHO of a Global Pandemic. That formally changes viable options for proceedures used across the globe I believe.

  114. H.R. says:

    Went to the store Monday to get a few items that we needed in the house after returning from Florida. Nothing out of stock.

    I missed a couple of items so went back today and the toilet paper aisle was wiped out, so to speak. Nary a roll to be had.

    For all of you who thought the barter items of choice for a SHTF scenario would be liquor, ammo, and salt, well it turns out that toilet paper will be the new currency.

    Couldn’t we have settled on something less bulky than toilet paper, though?

  115. E.M.Smith says:


    Looking at maps, I’d worked out that a county about 3 south of us had no cases. Knowing we’ve been basically sequestered since a while ago, so no exposure, we decided to do a day trip and restock / get sone fresh produce / dairy. It was also nice to just be out and about.

    The trip went very well. But those rural folks were stocking up and prepping. COSTCO & Walmart both out of TP & paper towels. (We found plenty at Bargain Market Grocery Outlet). I spent a couple of $ hundred more and rounded out the mix a bit (that trail mix and jerky the spouse snacked up ;-) along with some fresh stuff and balanced some things better (more dried onion, garlic, and canned ham for making better beans).

    Given that Sacramento has decided to let WuFlu run rampant, we may need to stay inside longer anyway. Oh and CDC advising over 60 folks to just stay home doesn’t inspire confidence either… So maybe we are overstocked, but probably the last chance before California is in the thousands of cases… and we have the TP to do it…

  116. Foyle says:

    Internationally the 10x growth rate has been about two weeks. Doubling about 4 days. Epidemiologists suggest USA has about 5x known cases. USA is about 2-3 weeks from hospitals being overwhelmed (sooner in hot spots). Police will stop showing up for work in rough neighbourhoods (would you risk 5% chance of death for your job after hospitals overwhelmed?) and will likely have to move to martial law and universal quarantine in next week to avoid that happening.

    Scandanavia is in major trouble, Iceland is worse than Italy, others are days away from hospitals being overwhelmed, rest of Europe a week.

    It’s about to get pretty scary folks. Global economy will be wrecked as quarantining effects and scare kicks in.

  117. Foyle says:

    Going out is still OK, just stay away from people. The great outdoors are a thing. Car’s are good isolators, and filling up can be managed hygienically. Stick any deliveries in a box in the garage for a few days before you handle them – time sanitizes everything.

    Govt will ensure that home deliveries of essentials are available, and infrastructure will be keep working.

  118. E.M.Smith says:


    I made my guess above (April 14 hospitals crash in the USA). That’s 5 weeks out.

    Your guess with hidden cases is 3-4 weeks.

    So I think that bounds the likely range of reality. March 31 to April 15. Or perhaps April Fools to IRS Abuse Day (USA incone tax due).

    We both agree Europe goes first. I figured 18 days earlier, so about March 14 to March 29. So one of the next three Saturdays… That’s a scary thought.

    Saw an interview with an Italian M.D. who said they were full up and about to hit the wall…. so it might start with Italy Saturday and sweep over Europe for 3 weeks…

    Interesting times ahead.

    FWIW, I suspect undue paranoia in some USA estimates. Were we really at 5000 to 10k cases, we would have at least 1000 to 2000 hospitalizations, and we don’t. There is the real possibility we could get ahead of it in the next teo weeks. I fear not a big one though…

  119. David A says:

    Ossqss, my thought is that as China’s cases mature past the death time and the 80 percent plus recover, that will happen, and then we can expect a reversal as the ROW cases start to reach the two to three week mark.

    This pattern is apparent in several of the worldmeter charts.

    And I still hold zero confidence in China’s numbers.

  120. ossqss says:

    I was notified I will have 5 college kids coming through my house on their way to their ultimate spring break destination today. I though about that for a minute. I was OK with that part, but asked about the return trip. You know, after they went and rubbed elbows, swapped bodily fluids etc.. with several thousand other kids from across the nation on spring break on a crowded Florida beach. This is just one place in SWFL. Imagine how many will transverse the entire state over the next couple weeks. That math is kinda scary when you plug in the virus RO scenario at a time where we are seeing the new cases double or more just today.

    So we certainly expect and are watching new cases happening rapidly right before our eyes.

    The question is,,,, how will spring break impact the spread of Covid-19?

    Now, keep in mind the Dep of Education in FL decided, today, that all institutions of higher learning having spring break will now only hold digital clases upon the end of the break period for at least 2 weeks. At least.

    New cases here have continued to climb all day for the US. Remember they dumped over a million tests out earlier this week and they are finding their way out of bureaucracy to be used.

    Worldometer new cases for today at 8:42 PM EST shows 309 in the US for a total of 1,303.

  121. Gail Combs says:

    Yascha Mounk

    “The Italian College of Anesthesia, Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care just published the most extraordinary medical document I’ve ever seen. To help people from Germany to America understand what we’re about to face, I am publishing translated extracts here.

    A week ago, Italy had so few cases of corona that it could give each stricken patient high-quality care.

    Today, some hospitals are so overwhelmed that they simply cannot treat every patient. They are starting to do wartime triage.

    Here’s the guidance for that. …


    1) The extraordinary criteria of admission and discharge are flexible and can be adapted in accordance with the local availability of resources.
    These criteria apply to all patients in intensive care, not just those infected with CoVid-19. 

    2) “Allocation is a very complex and delicate choice. […]
    The foreseeable increase in mortality for clinical conditions not linked to the current epidemic due to the reduction of chirurgical activity and the scarcity of resources needs to be taken into consideration.” 

    3) “It may become necessary to establish an age limit for access to intensive care.
    This is not a value judgments but a way to provide extremely scarce resources to those who have the highest likelihood of survival and could enjoy the largest number of life-years saved.” 

    “This is informed by the principle of maximizing benefits for the largest number…. “

    There is quite a bit more but I think we all get the idea,

  122. H.R. says:

    @OssQss re Spring Break – The spring Break kids are at the least risk of death from Covid-19, mostly susceptible to some nasty cold/flu-like symptoms.

    The only risk I see from Spring Break is that the kids will come back home and maybe expose grandma and grandpa and some crusty old professors who might have exacerbating health problems, subsequently biting the dust.

    We still don’t have enough data, but I do suspect that most people will just get sick and then get well and the usual highly susceptible population (elderly, asthmatic, diabetic, smokers, etc.) will be hit a little, or maybe a lot, harder than usual.

    I’m just not seeing people dropping dead in the streets, but actions like travel bans and self isolation will help an awful lot towards the U.S. NOT seeing people dropping like flies.
    We have one case, not one death, but one confirmed case of Covid-19 in my State and already we are out of toilet paper.

  123. philjourdan says:

    @David Peterson – Larry was well liked and greatly respected by most here, I am sorry to hear of his passing, as all the others here have expressed. Thank you for letting us know.

  124. M Simon says:

    Saw the President’s address tonight on ABC he seems serious about this for the first time.

    Also ABC News was a news program for the first time in a long time.

  125. ossqss says:

    @HR, just thinking about the exponential impact of a mosh pit experience and a couple thousand mile run in the wild for just one example. Just sayin,

    NBA suspended their season tonight. If the NHL does the same, it will be the end of the world for those camping in quarantine. Oh the Pain! (Dr. Smith credit) .

  126. philjourdan says:

    On topic – this has gotten way out of control. It is no longer a disease – it is an hysteria. Sorry, the hysteria has over taken rational thought.

    The top end of the mortality curve is 1%. given the lack of symptoms in younger folks, it is probably not even half that. As most will never report it.

    This is not a pandemic. This is mass hysteria.

  127. E.M.Smith says:

    @Ossqss: Not the NHL!?!!…. Oh, the humanity…. ( Morrison . Hindenburg…)

    @M. Simon:

    I must now watch ABC News …just for the spectacle of them actually doing news again…

  128. David A says:

    HR, allowing Spring Break parties, hundreds of thousands of kids from disparate communities, to do this, in the beginning of a pandemic, is, IMV, frankly insane. Yes their personal risk may only be one to 5 times greater then the flu. Yet are they also not the most likely to be asymptomatic, or have mild cases
    And so cause the death of many?

  129. E.M.Smith says:


    That depends entirely on eventual CFR Case Fatality Rate that depends entirely on if / when you overrun the medical system that depends on effective R0 (cases transmitted per infected person) that depends on Government doing the right thing and chosing the painful politically risky choices of NPI Non Pharmaceutical Interventions like quaratine and travel blocks … And if that doesn’t cause a feeling of impending doom and justified panic, you’ve not been following the news out of EU and ROW…

  130. M Simon says:

    philjourdan says:
    12 March 2020 at 2:39 am

    It is official. The death rate is 1%. Says Dr. Fauci.

  131. ossqss says:

    The global death rate from closed documented cases remains at +6%. It should go down, hopefully, but it is not 1% based on what we have. I don’t count projections/opinions until they become fact. I believe it will ultimately be under 1% when all is considered in reanalysis, but we are not there yet. The death rate in my neighbors home is Zero, as an example.


  132. Foyle says:

    M Simon: Assuming good hospital treatment 1% is probably in the ballpark. but more like 5-10% in its absence, and that is the near universal reality that westerners will face in a few weeks.

  133. E.M.Smith says:

    Per the low 1% CFR in S.Korea:

    Saw a reference to them using chloroquine (IIRC) to raise zinc level inside cells where it blocks RNA transcription for the virus. Unless you are using their treatments you won’t get their death rates. Let’s see if I can find it … here it is :

  134. Geoff Cruickshank says:

    So CFR will vary throughout this epidemic depending on caseload and the ability to function of the underlying health system. I’m frankly puzzled that here we have had no advice along the lines of: if you can work from home, do it; if you retired and are able to isolate, do it. It seems as though the powers that be would like to prolong ‘normal’ economic transactions for about another ten days or so…the payoff from this attitude seems low to me.
    I keep encountering the view that this is ‘just another flu’. Either I’m a fool or they are.

  135. David A says:

    Ossqss agreed completely. Yes, there are certainly many who got the virus that were never a part of the official infected count. And there are certainly many who died from this, and were likewise, never on the official death role. As China shut out all foreign observation, they lose all creditability. It is very possible that in many areas of China the virus was not controlled, it simply burned out through the population.

    But as you say, it is all speculation.
    For now we have two extremes, Italy and South Korea.

    My personal WAG is plus 5 percent in areas where the medical staff is overwelm

  136. Power Grab says:

    Word is, from the college nearest me, students departing for spring break should take their electronics with them. They are likely to be advised to quarantine for two weeks after spring break ends. Classes will continue online.

    Another college farther away has already said they will hold classes online. I don’t know for how long.

  137. E.M.Smith says:


    Outbound probably not too much risk as long as nobody is symptomatic.

    When the sleep deprived, wrungout immunity reduced, germ swapped hoard returns, I think I’d be at a remote fishing place… then deep clean the house after they moved on…


    Good Point.

    Where are the PSAs just saying “If you can; just stay home and avoid other people for a while” or “travel during a pandemic is a bad idea”? Or even just “You always ought to have two weeks of food for all sorts of minor life events, more so for bigger ones.”

    It sure looks like either a desire to keep making money, or undue fear of a “panic” is preventing useful messages for prudent actions. Prudent actions that could save a lot of lives.

    I find myself wanting to shout at the Nanny Messaging: “There is a state between blissful ignorance and full on panic; called prudent calm preparation.”

    In fact, there is a whole sub-culture dedicated to it.

  138. E.M.Smith says:

    Per Italy:

    Puts them at 206 cases per million population AND they are talking triage as their medical system hit the wall. I think we can use 200 / million as a rule of thumb for when things break.

    By that estimator, USA starts to crumble at 64,000 cases.

    Also, why the sudden massive case growth? Perhsps their gregarious life style.

    Lunch is spent going shop to shop. Bit of pizza here, gelato there. Often in crowded shops.

    Grocery shopping is daily at crowded street vendors. All of it close contact at times.

  139. Foyle says:

    How to beat the virus globally with minimal loss of life and shortest disruption: Deliberately infect 60-70% of population with lowest risk in a controlled manner at rate low enough that hospital treatment can keep up. Younger people have way less hospitalization and recover faster so that can establish herd immunity for Ro=2 in as little as a few months while not over-taxing hospitals and killing only about 0.1% of population.

  140. A C Osborn says:

    E.M.Smith says: 12 March 2020 at 7:59 am
    Per Italy:
    Puts them at 206 cases per million population AND they are talking triage as their medical system hit the wall. I think we can use 200 / million as a rule of thumb for when things break.

    E M it will greatly depend on IC Beds/1000 population.
    For instance Italy & the UK only have about 4000 IC beds for populations in the 50 to 60 millions, whereas Germany has 28500 IC beds for 80 million.

  141. Bill In Oz says:

    Tom Hanks & his wife Rita Wilson are infected with COrona 19 Virus and in quarantine in Queensland Australia. I think they will be looked after well folks

  142. rhoda klapp says:

    There’s something unique about Italy that is not explained by lifestyle alone. It looks to me like the disease started earlier and remained undetected for a long time and even now there are a lot of undiagnosed spreaders. If I’m correct the new measures should slow things down, maybe get to the reflex part of the curve.

    I don’t know about China, there are aspects of their numbers which raise more questions. We know about Wuhan and the problems of the 50m people who live there. But there are another billion foks in China we haven’t heard much about. Did the measures they used really contain the virus from spreading internally? Despite the CNY population exchange?

    The UK had a budget announcement yesterday which included a number of temporary measures designed to protect small businesses for cashflow problems during the virus troubles. It’s always cashflow that kills businesses and rare to see government get out ahead of this.

    I currently still have flight tickets to the US for the end of March. I don’t think I’ll be flying, somehow.

  143. Bill In Oz says:

    An update re Tom Hanks & his wife : It’s a real pity that they’ve been in close contact with hundreds of people over the past few days….

    Given that so many people in the USA were not tested until Pence started to kick butt at CDC, it’s clear that there are a lot more infected people in the USA than the official numbers record.

    And so I’m hoping that travellers coming here from the USA are told to quarantine for 2 weeks or denied entry.
    As Jo says, strap yourselves in folks !

  144. Bill In Oz says:

    More disturbing news :
    “All healthcare staff ensure additional protection by using protective goggles to prevent nosocomial infections or what is known as hospital transmissions. Also, those in high risk occupations having to deal and come in contact with lots of people each day such as immigration officials, security guards, sales and service staff, should also be using protective goggles to avoid the risk of exposure to the virus from asymptomatic individuals.”


  145. tom0mason says:

    I was stunned and saddened to read here of Larry Ledwick’s death.
    I enjoyed his lively and fact-filled contributions very much. He will be missed.
    My condolences to his family and all who knew him.

  146. tom0mason says:

    At the back of my mind is that the COVID-19 virus has crossed from other animal species to humans, and therefore I wonder if it can harbor in domesticated animals and pets? Could American and European bat populations become the reservoir host for later infections? Are versions of COVID-19 now residing in these animals, all the while mutating, and set to re-emerge at some later date.

    Maybe like the flu we will be advised to have a yearly COVID vaccination.

  147. YMMV says:

    Wuhan, cats, fish markets ….
    (This isn’t new, so just in case you have not seen it)

    A diary of an early Wuhan virus experience.
    “Day 1 — Monday November 25: I have a cold. ”
    “Day 9: Even the kitten hanging around my apartment seems to be feeling under the weather.”
    “Day 11: But the poor kitten has died.”
    “Maybe I caught the coronavirus at the fish market. It’s a great place to get food on a budget, a part of the real Wuhan that ordinary Chinese people use every day, and I regularly do my shopping there. Since the outbreak became international news, I’ve seen hysterical reports (especially in the U.S. media) that exotic meats such as bat and even koala are on sale at the fish market. I’ve never seen that.”

    And in case you have not seen these graphs, comparing growth rate by country,

  148. Ossqss says:

    Well, just about anything with fans in attendance has now been terminated. I think I will dub this the Rerun Flu at this point.

  149. David A says:

    At the world meter site, evidence of China lies is starting to build. The case rise is steeper then at any point in China’s rise, and while China still has over 60 percent of total cases, the daily death toll is over 100 percent greater then the largest day in China.

    China did massive group quarantine of potentially exposed, likely subjecting them to massive quarantine exposure. About 18 percent of their population is over age 60. IMV the leaks of massive deaths are likely true. Currently the ROW now has a higher CFR then China according to the world-meter site. Yet the ROW is behind China in time of exposure. I do not believe any of China’s numbers.

  150. S.T. Taylor says:

    @ David A

    Neither do I – my contacts in China have said that it was much worse than was being portrayed. Even in large cities like Shanghai – the number of people out and about is very low. People are still afraid to go back to work and travel.

  151. Geoff Cruickshank says:

    I think your idea of 200 cases per million being health system crisis point is an interesting speculation. I would guess it will vary somewhat. I suppose that health systems would rate themselves against some figure for planning purposes? (Or do they just blunder along?)

  152. M Simon says:

    Test kits. ==>

    There is a case around here – the wife of my son’s friend. – who definitely should be on the testing list. There are no tests available. And our President keeps saying otherwise.

    On a better note. Last nights speech seems to have put the nation on a war footing. Good.

    From 3 days ago https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-cancel-everything/607675/ it seems to be happening.

  153. M Simon says:

    The first 5 minutes of this are really good. I haven’t watched the whole thing.

  154. M Simon says:

    The video pretty much reflects the information here developed by Dr. Lawler. The video guy is Dr. Osterholm. ==>


  155. E.M.Smith says:

    The test problem is basically:

    I mailed the check, what’s wrong with you?
    I’m still not spending the cash, you deadbeat!

    I’m sure CDC put 1 M kits in the UPS Out Basket.

    I’m also sure my local Doc doesn’t have one, the State Lab is limited in PRC Machines to run it, and Bob’s Pretty Good Lab has placed an order for the chemicals for their PCR Machine, but got a June delivery date from China…. And the lab in Alpine County has not had their UPS delivery yet…

    Logistics, it’s a thing….

  156. M Simon says:

    Logistics, it’s a thing….

    Does our President know that?

  157. Gail Combs says:

    M Simon says:
    Test kits. ==>
    There is a case around here – the wife of my son’s friend. – who definitely should be on the testing list. There are no tests available. And our President keeps saying otherwise.

    After looking up some of the people on the task force… let’s just say they do not give me the warm fuzzies….

    Even with a million tests you only get 20,000 per state and I am sure California, Washington, New York and Florida are going to be getting a major chunk of the test kits.

    WORSE — this from one of the ladies in Ga/Fl area.
    Florida cases have increased from 28 to 31 overnight, but almost all are senior travel/cruise passengers or workers.http://www.floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-conditions/COVID-19/index.html
    (From plumnelly – who is the mother of GA county government worker who was briefed via phone by administration/agencies) that 80 cruise ships with over 250,000 passengers are due to dock soon. That is not confirmed, but with the Vice President making a special trip to FL to talk with the cruise ships about health procedures, the administration is concerned and trying to avoid or contain another influx of sick cruise passengers/crew. A large number of cruise ships have had coronavirus infections.

    So that could be where a heck of a lot of the test kits are going as well as for the people returning from Europe.

    So there is a very good chance testing is STILL being restricted by the bureaucrats and the test kits are being directed to the places where they are most needed. (Incoming, possibly infected, international travelers)

    I saw something go by last night on Fox where they had various state governors/bureaucrats were giving statements. One of the bureaucrats was spouting the same stuff Nancy Messonnier of CDC was spouting a month ago. To be tested you must have listed symptoms and contact with a known carrier or travel to listed countries.

  158. Gail Combs says:

    M Simon says:
    Logistics, it’s a thing….

    Does our President know that?

    Of course he does. He built skyscrapers.
    However there is only so much he can do with the Democrats (and DC is 95%+ democrat) HOPING AND WORKING like mad to make him look as incompetent as possible.

    Remember they do not give a crap if the serf class dies.

  159. David A says:

    I agree with Simon on this, with a Caveat. I think POTUS was lied to. I think he was told the tests were going out. I think they made the flu comparison to him, and convinced him to soft sell this. His personal actions regarding travel were strong, at least compared to most. Even WHO advised against his early China travel ban.

    I watched the Admiral in charge of the CDC in an interview. He was terrible from my perspective.

  160. Bill In Oz says:

    In order to stop the further spread of Corona 19 virus in India,
    India is suspending the issuing of all visas to travellers wishing to enter India until April 15th
    ( Exceptions apply for diplomatic personnel )
    India ( officially ) had just 73 cases on the 12/3/2020


  161. Gail Combs says:

  162. Gail Combs says:

    David A.
    I hate to be getting into the conspiracy theory realm however…
    Places Tinfoil bonnet firmly on head.

    Dr Boyle drafted the USA Biological Weapons Act. He, Along with the Zerohedge article, that got them banned from Twitter AND Adrian Bond, who got his article removed, ALL point to the same person, Professor Zhengli Shi.



    WHAT IS INTERESTING is the lengths ‘they’ are going to keep the public from knowing about Professor Zhengli Shi of the Key Laboratory of Special Pathogens and Biosafety, Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, China.

    Dr Boyle points to the paper from India, which the authors were harassed into withdrawing:
    Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag

    He mentions a new paper that confirmed the findings by the paper from India. It was by scientists from Marseilles, France and one from the Montreal clinical research laboratories.
    The spike glycoprotein of the new coronavirus 2019-nCoV contains a furin-like cleavage site absent in CoV of the same clade


    Back to Professor Zhengli Shi of Wuhan, China.
    This is where it gets interesting (and conspiracy-ish) but the connections are… weird.
    Dr Boyle mentions the papers below and an Australian paper (also with Professor Zhengli Shi as author) that show the scientis tinkering around with the genetics of the Sars virus to make it nastier.

    I do not have access to the Aussie paper but here is the other paper:
    A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence

    Taking it that Dr Boyle knows bio-weapon research when he sees it, lets look at the PEOPLE and PLACES.

    The virus sample supplied to the scientists came from Fort Detrick.

    Check on Fort Detrick the WIKI says:
    ““…Historically, Fort Detrick was the center of the U.S. biological weapons program from 1943 to 1969. Since the discontinuation of that program, it has hosted most elements of the United States biological defense program….”

    Mueller, who recently led the Special Council , as FBI Director, destroyed the careers of Dr Stephen Hatfill (who sued for millions) and Dr. Bruce Ivins ( who committed suicide) in the anthrax letter case. After Ivins killed himself the FBI announced the case closed.

    Bruce Ivins, a microbiologist at the US Army Medical Research Institute for Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID) at Fort Detrick, Maryland, reportedly committed suicide after ingesting prescription-strength Tylenol and codeine, as the FBI prepared to charge him in the anthrax attacks weeks after the 9/11 attack in 2001….

    ….an email from a USAMRIID employee describing how he was surprised to learn the powdered anthrax was produced at Fort Detrick. The e-mail written by the employee who had been asked to compare the anthrax sent through the mail with that produced at Fort Detrick read in part: “Then he said he had to look at a lot of samples that the FBI had prepared . . . to duplicate the letter material . . . Then the bombshell. He said that the best duplication of the material was the stuff made by [name redacted]. He said that it was almost exactly the same . . his knees got shaky and he sputtered, ‘But I told the General we didn’t make spore powder!’”

    Oh, and the witch Nancy Messonnier who screwed up the test kits?
    “…Messonnier also has been a leader in CDC’s preparedness and response to anthrax, including during the 2001 intentional anthrax release….”

    Next up the PLACE the research was done:
    Gack (the place I go for medical)
    FUNDING for the study?
    Approved and funded by the National Institutes of Health (NIH)
    The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious disease (NIAID) and they have approved and requested further development
    AND a National Natural Science Foundation of China award.
    Aside from the people at UNC and Zhengli-Li Shi from Wuhan China, there was even a guy from the FDA!

    APPROVED GRANT and on Task Force
    Francis S. Collins, M.D., Ph.D.

    Francis S. Collins, M.D., Ph.D. was appointed the 16th Director of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) by President Barack Obama and confirmed by the Senate. He was sworn in on August 17, 2009. On June 6, 2017, President Donald Trump announced his selection of Dr. Collins to continue to serve as the NIH Director….

    Dr. Collins is a physician-geneticist noted for … his leadership of the international Human Genome Project, which culminated in April 2003 with the completion of a finished sequence of the human DNA instruction book….

    WIKI article

    …at the University of Virginia, where he earned a Bachelor of Science degree in Chemistry in 1970. He went on to graduate as a Doctor of Philosophy in physical chemistry at Yale University in 1974.[5] While at Yale, a course in biochemistry sparked his interest in the subject. After consulting with his mentor from the University of Virginia, Carl Trindle, he changed fields and enrolled in medical school at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, earning a Doctor of Medicine degree there in 1977.

    APPROVED GRANT and on Task Force
    Anthony S. Fauci

    …In 1968, he joined the National Institutes of Health (NIH) as a clinical associate in the Laboratory of Clinical Investigation (LCI) in NIAID. In 1974, he became Head of the Clinical Physiology Section, LCI, and in 1980 was appointed Chief of the Laboratory of Immunoregulation, a position he still holds. In 1984, he became Director of NIAID, which has the responsibility for an extensive research portfolio of basic and applied research on infectious and immune-mediated illnesses….

    Jay C. Butler, MD is the Deputy Director for Infectious Diseases.
    (Nancy Messonier’s boss.)

    “…Dr. Butler has 30 years of experience in increasingly complex public health leadership and management positions. He graduated from North Carolina State University with a BS in zoology, received his MD at the University of North Carolina…”

    Lots of ties to UNC and the SARS virus experiments.

    Removes tinfoil bonnet.

  163. Octave Fiddler says:

    The County Health Officer of San Mateo County has made some strong statements;
    scroll down and click the caret beside
    Health Officer Statement
    Where he says stuff like this
    I would BOLD the first sentence of the second paragraph;
    ” The bulk of what I want to tell you is in my slightly modified March 5 statement below. Please re-read it slowly and carefully and consider your next actions. Over the last long weeks, I have been faced with unanswerable dilemmas and conundrums daily. I have been asked to make significant policy decisions with very little information on which to base them. I have 35 years of experience as a physician, and almost 30 years of experience in local public health, more local public health experience than almost anyone in our state. If I am filled with uncertainty, I can only imagine how the general public must be feeling. People want very specific answers to their questions, and they deserve them. But in many cases, there are not satisfactory answers to give them.

    *I now have evidence of widespread community transmission of COVID-19 in San Mateo County. *
    Under these circumstances, the actions advised in my March 5th statement below become that much more critical. The only way to slow the spread of COVID-19 in the light of having community transmission is to have everything in our society grind to a halt for an extended period of time, as you have seen done in other countries. All actions have consequences. At this moment, given what I know, I believe grinding everything to a halt would cause us more harm than good. If my opinion on this changes, I will update this statement. Again, the bulk of what I want to tell you is in my March 5 statement below. Please re-read it slowly and carefully and consider your next actions. And please remember, we are all in this together. Showing each other extra measures of kindness will go a long way.

    Message from March 5, 2020 ”
    THereafter he lists a variety of stuff like Larry L. said to do.

    My daughter just texted;
    ‘Thanks for the early warning Dad,
    and it turns out you weren’t being crazy’.
    If we escape this infection it will only be because of Larry L. RELENTLESS early communication.


  164. Gail Combs says:

  165. Gail Combs says:

    Octave Fiddler,
    Larry L. has helped more people that you know. The ladies at the political blog I now frequent have compiled information from Larry and the other folks here and from elsewhere. The articles are then linked to groups on facebook and on twitter. I can not remember the size of one of the groups that one of the ladies manages but we are talking hundreds of people!

    Hopefully President Trump has bought the USA the time we need DESPITE the ACTIVE OBSTRUCTION by the Democrats who rather see the entire country die, than to see President Trump re-elected.

  166. ossqss says:

    So, worldometer has put us at 10% current bad active cases, but upped the bad outcome to 7%. It was basically Iran, but worth watching.

    I apologize in advance, just like “Larry the Cable Guy”, but this song keeps playing in my head!

  167. Gail Combs says:

  168. dpeterson1128 says:

    Hi everyone,

    I appreciate all of the amazing feedback about Larry. Even saying “feedback” feel so artificial and wrong in response to him and how he was. Again I apologize for breaking up this conversation, but everything related to this virus and what is going on is so damn Larry it is not even funny. He would have loved this (for an extreme lack of a better word). My wife and I were just discussing it earlier. He would have been my go to with all of this.

    Larry was one of the greatest men I’ve ever known. This is a rough timeline of what I know about his life but I think it is important to share, and honestly I have had a hard time sharing this with anyone. Not because they weren’t willing to listen but because I think few really understand and can comprehend what an incredible person he was. He had a powerful story of perseverance.

    Larry was an engineer at heart. He went to the University of Colorado to study engineering but could not afford the books to keep up back in the day. He came from nothing (but never pointed the finger at someone else for it). I don’t know the exact year he went to CU but it was roughly in the late 60’s based on his age (no student loans as far as I know at the time). He joined the military shortly after and had a string of bad luck with his parents passing away suddenly when he was in his 20’s (his parent’s were in their 40’s).

    He worked at Cheyenne Mountain Norad in Colorado Springs. He never told me a thing about what he actually did there. Typical Larry. He commuted their from north Denver for years.

    Afterwards, he worked for the Colorado Department of Emergency Management. He got fed up with the bullshit and red tape and quit one day. He cashed out his retirement, bought a badass car, CB radio, and chased storms for the next 4 years. He had some wild stories about chasing tornadoes. All I could ever think of or contribute was the tornadoes I experienced as a kid in southern Kansas. He’ll always be the best weatherman I’ve ever known. Side note, when I moved to St. Louis from Colorado in late spring last year, he called me every few hours to see how I was doing, and to give me an update on weather. Typical Larry.

    Sometime after coming out of retirement, he got back into IT. He worked for Sun Microsystems, IBM, among other big names in the Denver/Boulder area.I met him in April 2013 shortly after I graduated from college. He quickly became a close friend and confidant. We shared a lot of close interests and general love for being self sufficient. I think when we really sealed the deal on our friendship is when I bought some ammo from him, lol.

    I had the pleasure and honor of spending holidays, trips to the gun range, and “prepping” conversations with him. I’ll cherish those memories forever.

    We were 39 year apart in age, but god damn he was my brother. I grew up with not much supervision or oversight. He kind of beat some shit in to my head that I needed to hear. And also gave me an appreciation for the life I had, and the position that I am in. And thank god I was willing to listen.

    His death was very unexpected. I wish I really knew what happened, but I don’t. He passed away at his home is all I know. I am still having a hard time talking about it even with my wife and friends. It is hard to put in to words a relationship you have with someone else when you talk to them every day. I still find myself going to text him, email him, or god forbid (for Larry haha) call him when there is storm out here. I am still sending him encrypted emails. It helps. It’s hard to talk about someone you love without making it about yourself.

    I know there will never be another Larry Ledwick in my life, and I am fine with that. Because I know he was truly one of a kind.

    I take a lot of comfort in knowing that you all loved him so much. I take a lot of comfort in knowing that he knew my wife and I loved him too. He had no immediate family left when he died. But he was our family, and he always will be. I plan on having a picture of him framed and put up in my house. His memory will live on as long as we are here.

    We my wife and I decided to move to St. Louis from Colorado it was a sad time for him and I. But he was excited for us. My wife is going to medical school out here, and Larry being Larry obsessed over finding every god damn medical book on the planet for her. I think he bought her around 3k worth of books. They are all in full display in our house now. Typical Larry.

    I have been following this whole thread via email, not really knowing what to say when you all have posted things about him. It has truly brought me more comfort than I could express via text or words. I know for a fact Larry loved loved the conversations he had with you and the companionship you all had.

    I can’t promise to ever bring to this forum what Larry did, but I will stick around for the long haul. Reading your posts and everything you have to say, be it related to the Coronavirus or anything else reminds me so much of him. I miss him a lot.

    Thank you all. I really appreciate it.

  169. dpeterson1128 says:

    I just followed up and searched my name on here to see the posts. Wow, I am truly humbled by the amount of responses related to Larry’s passing.

    He truly loved the conversations he had with you guys over the years, and you all are absolutely incredible.

    David A summoned up Larry perfectly, “Larry was clearly brilliant, and somehow it felt like there was a quiet humbleness about him as well. All the best to his family and friends.”

    He was the smartest, most brilliantly humble man I have ever known. He did call me a dumbass a couple times, but I was in my 20’s and deserved it haha. Thank you for that.

  170. David 6 says:

    LOL Gail, Well, I got your last post right quick. The one before that is taking some time and a couple of re-reads to follow that posts relationship to the CDC and their performance that has been so bad as to appear to almost be willful.

    I think you are driving at some motive perhaps, yet I have perhaps read to much today.

  171. Gail Combs says:

    South China Morning Post: Coronavirus: China’s first confirmed Covid-19 case traced back to November 17


    “…According to the government data seen by the Post, a 55 year-old from Hubei province could have been the first person to have contracted Covid-19 on November 17. From that date onwards, one to five new cases were reported each day. By December 15, the total number of infections stood at 27 – the first double-digit daily rise was reported on December 17 – and by December 20, the total number of confirmed cases had reached 60….”

  172. Gail Combs says:

    Let’s just say, After Strong Memorial Hospital/University of Rochester burned the crap out of my Mom with their secret radiation experiments for the government, I have a very jaundiced view of the US government and Universities.

    So do I think they were playing around with a bio-weapon? Sure looks like it. Did that virus go back to Wuhan China? Probably. After all CHINA PAID FOR IT. Did that virus or something made using the techniques they developed at UNC and the Aussie University escape? Sure looks like it.

    Does this all jive with the panicked response of the Chinese government? YOU BETCHA!

    Even now the governors esp in democrat states are dragging their feet. The Democrats and media are tossing hissy fits and doing everything they can to make matters worse.

    One of the ladies points to this article showing the aggressive response of South Korea:

    She then writes:

    …they [South Korea] took Aggressive action in investigating & tracing case origins then testing widely all who had come in contact with the infected cases v. waiting for symptoms.

    Our state governments are Not doing this and it is frustrating!

    Example: TN had a case in Williamson County (just south of Nashville) that brought the infection into our state after traveling. He spread the virus before becoming ill. They are only notifying and monitoring those people with whom he came in close sustained contact such as family members. They are not announcing other locations of possible exposure so that those when may have crossed paths with him can be aware, self isolate and monitor their health. Example: in the several days between his arrival home and his becoming ill did he go to Whole Foods, Costco, the gym, a coffee house? Announce his locations and the time he was there so we can make better decisions. They did cancel schools because his children live in close proximity to him and if infected had been in schools in the mean time. But what about everywhere else he had been?

    And now there are more and more cases being tested and confirmed as the community infections spread. Frustrating! Give us the information and let us decide if we cross paths and ought to quarantine or ought to take our illnesses seriously or just chalk it up to seasonal/regular flu. There is NO way that the state gov should be so secretive!

    I called today and asked for the info…they said, No, they are contacting all the people the patients tell them about. I said what about those who the patient does not know, that he/she just happened to cross paths with, pointing out the distance of a cough/sneeze and the length their germs lived after they had passed through public areas.

    She just stuck to her scripted answers. I started getting upset but told her I knew she was just doing as she was told but would she please pass on that citizens are not happy about the secrecy.

    Another example: A doctor at Vanderbilt (or a health care worker…I am not clear) has been dinsangosed. I called to find out in what department he works. They refused to say. That leaves Everyone who works at Vandy or who went to any medical service wondering…did I cross paths with this person? Again, they just kept saying that they were in contact with all of the staff and patients that this person had been in contact with. What about their non work life? Grocery stores? coffee shops? What about casual contact or being in the same elevator, cafeteria, etc.? I was so frustrated!!!

    But had to let it go ’cause wasn’t going to change anything.

    I think our “leaders” have just accepted that it is in the community and the best/most they can do is slow the spread. I figure they don’t want to give out that info so as to avoid panic. I would rather they provide info and I be better prepared to make choices and decisions.


    Hubby and I have a small business. We have learned that a government worker’s default is DO NOTHING If you do nothing you can not get in trouble so never ever bother to actually HELP a citizen or be pro-active.

  173. p.g.sharrow says:

    After studying this thing for 2 months I have concluded anything that the government does is too little, too late. We have a nearly 100% chance of getting infected. Next best thing is to survive it by limiting heavy contact and by staying healthy. Data indicates that if you only get a light infection your bodies immune system can more easily get an upper hand and limit the severity of the infection. The bodies of younger people seem to be able to easily limit this infection because of their stronger immune systems. The Chinese experience seems to indicate that heavy exposure to the infection can quickly overwhelm the bodies resistance. So while face masks may not give 100% protection, maybe 95% will limit the exposure enough to turn a bad experience into a just a bad cold. I would also suspect that any survived infection will result in immunity. STAY out of Medical facilities or other possible heavily contaminated areas for the next 50 – 60 days.
    Thank GOD for Mr Smith’s band of informants force feeding us with EARLY information from around the world. The government and MSM has been less then worthless…pg

  174. beththeserf says:

    Yep! Serf musing regarding History’s Chequered History … ‘Place not yer trust in yer Philosopher Kings (Gurus) and their dependant scribes, for public-spirited ‘n far-sighted leadership is rare. Yer George Washington. ‘I cannot tell a lie, ‘ comes but seldom.. That bein’ the case, ‘Think (and act) fer thyself.’ Serfs, place thy trust only on those true-blue scientists and engineers subject ter Hammurabi Rules of test and take the consequences, and on yer own serf adaptability. Be thank- ful fer farmers, engineers and chemists who deal with matter and processes on the littoral, their risks our benefit, and hold ter our own serf common sense: ‘Keep thy head when all else is running a muck!’.

  175. Foyle says:

    If the first case was 17 Nov and get >10x every fortnight in absence of prevention. That means 1000 at start of Jan and 10000 by mid Jan when 5million Wuhanians scattered prior to lockdown.

    At that point china was only admitting to less than 1% of that number. I bet that it actually rose to a million there and killed 10’s of thousands. And the result of all those lies is that the rest of the world didn’t take it seriously – so now 100 million will die (in 3rd world where it can’t be stopped).

    Chinese government have just killed more than all wars of 20th century

  176. Another Ian says:

    Just got news of a local hot spot – where I was yesterday.

    I usually practice “rural isolation” so we’ll see.

    Pretty well stocked up.

  177. corev says:

    I am convinced the Italy (+China Korea) solutions is the best, and should be implemented in the US NOW! We can officially call it “Social Distancing”, but it seems the most effective way to slow/stop the spread. Doing so results in buying us time to prepare for and MINIMIZE the eventual and inevitable medical, social and economic impacts.

    Give the unwary, unable and unwilling warning so that they can prepare for that “Social Distancing” as best they are able. The Government’s role should be to make money available for both the suppliers and consumers to prepare. Couple this support with extended sick pay to sustain those during the “Social Distancing” period.

    14 – 30 days appears to be the optimum period for this “Social Distancing” period.

  178. Bill In Oz says:

    Peter Dutton the Australian Home Affairs Minister recently returned from Washington DC where he attended high-level talks with his counterparts from Five Eyes nations – the US, United Kingdom, Canada and New Zealand. Among those Mr Dutton also met while in Washington were with were Attorney-General William Barr and President Donald Trump’s daughter and adviser Ivanka…..

    Today Peter Dutton was diagnosed with COVID disease and is in hospital in quarantine


    In other words Dutton unknowingly picked this up in the USA. Time for Australia o close the borders with the USA or maybe it’s too late already… Total number of infected here has jumped to just under 200. On Saturday last it was 84.

  179. Gail Combs says:

    John Baez is a very no-nonsense guy, a physicist. He shows in graphic form WHY prepping and ISOLATION aka Social Distancing are so important.

  180. Bob Koss says:

    Daily press releases from S. Korea CDC can be found here.


    Has charts by region and another by sex and age.
    They have performed more than 230,000 tests since Jan 3.
    As of today the overall fatality rate is 0.84% for the 7979 confirmed cases.
    1.28% for men, 0.57% for women.

    This virus is being hyped way out of proportion. Only old codgers like me have much to worry about.

  181. Gail Combs says:

    I think you will like the way this lady thinks.

  182. Gail Combs says:

    From one of the ladies (or gents) in Florida
    …Disney (in Florida, California and France) and Universal have been shut down, Spring Break in Miami Beach has been cancelled (no permits will be issued), March Madness has been cancelled (Tampa)…

    From a friend who just moved to Florida and now lives in ‘The Villages’
    All indoor activites have been cancelled. The pool and golf course remain open. (SUNSHINE UV🌞 )

  183. rhoda klapp says:

    I went to the Villages once. Stepford ain’t got nuthin on the Villages.

  184. rhoda klapp says:

    UK health policy as announced yesterday is to only test on admission to hospital. If you think you’ve got it, stay home for a week, if it gets bad call for help. It’s the testing that makes me wonder. We have obviously abandoned testing the population along with contact tracing. It’s in the general population, a negative test means nothing for the future, a positive test can’t be admitted until there is something to treat (and there is no early treatment). Other than the interesting figure of how many cases, what is the good of testing in the wild? I don’t think you can use the information usefully at all, except in the analysis once it’s all over..

  185. Gail Combs says:

    In North Carolina..
    The first cases were in Raleigh (Wake county) and Chatham county (Pittsboro? near UNC Chapel Hill?)

    Now it has spread west and south.

    ..The first two cases of people testing presumptive positive for COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, have been reported in Mecklenburg County, officials said Thursday. And a third Charlotte-area case was reported late Thursday afternoon in Cabarrus County.

    Statewide, Gov. Roy Cooper and N.C. health officials say large gatherings of 100 or more people should be canceled or postponed to reduce health risks.

    Charlotte is the nation’s 16th largest city, and has been growing by double digits each decade from 1960 through today.​ Charlotte is “the #1 fastest-growing TechTown in the U.S., a top 10 rising city for startups, and the #1 city in America for growth in female-owned businesses. In the past year alone, Honeywell, a Fortune 100 company, relocated its headquarters, Lowes invested in a new tech center, and Microsoft committed to expand operations in Charlotte.”
    Techie, jet-setter spread? ( 5.97% of the population is Asian. For the rest of NC it is 2.56% of the population even with the large number — 12.58% — in Chapel Hill due to UNC.)

    Charlotte population density is 2,642 per sq mi which is 1112% higher than the North Carolina average and 2816% higher than the national average. Median age in Charlotte is 12% lower than North Carolina. 35.26% of the population is African American (National average is 12.63%)

    The Mayor is Democrat Vi Lyles (and yes she is a black woman. I hope she is better than most Democrat mayors.) She ” holds a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science from Queens University, and a Master of Public Administration from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. She is a trained facilitator and executive coach, completing programs at the Institute of Government, North Carolina State University and the Lee Institute’s American Leadership Forum.’

    Above information stolen from:

    Map below showing Chatham county. Note Rt 15 (a very nice road) takes you out of Chapel Hill into the countryside near Jordan lake. Fearrington Village is 15 minutes out of Chapel Hill and a very very lovely area. I drool when I go by it. It “… occupies what was formerly the area of the unincorporated community of Farrington. It is a mixed-use community located on farmland dating back to the 18th century in Pittsboro, North Carolina. The community is located about 15 minutes from Chapel Hill, a half-hour from Durham and 45 minutes from Raleigh…”

  186. E.M.Smith says:


    POTUS can, and ought to, call Congress back into sesssion to either pass the damn bill or explain to We The People why they want exponentially more dead…

    Just go on TV, announce the fact, and tell the people why he is calling them back in session.

    @Warning Thanks:

    That belongs to Larry Ledwick. While I like to think I would have jumped on it a week or two later, in fact, he surfaced the topic here first and then carried the topic, news, and Digging Here! for the first couple of weeks. Pointing at various resources and sites. All I did was recognize what he was saying and keep the topic open while I caught up. It is his memorial.

  187. Compu Gator says:

    E.M.Smith [said] 12 March 2020 at 12:41 am [GMT]:
    [•] I made my guess above (April 14 hospitals crash in the USA). That’s 5 weeks out.
    [•] Your guess with hidden cases is 3-4 weeks.

    So I think that bounds the likely range of reality. March 31 to April 15. Or perhaps April Fools to IRS Abuse Day (USA incone tax due).

    Easter Sunday will fall on April 12; and
    • Palm Sunday begins Holy Week on April 5.

    The go/no go decision for the holiest time of the year for Christians will create serious anguish for the devout this year. Even the few genuinely traditional Catholics near-by, whose demographics are dominated by the elderly, can fill their churches or chapels for 4 Masses at Easter–no room there for 2-m. separation.

    No doubt widespread absences by the faithful to avoid still more opportunities for CoV-19 transmission will likely produce rather light-weight collection baskets, but the higher priority should be survival of the scarce traditional priests. I have no doubt that those priests will fulfill their sacred duties to visit and provide sacraments to the sick [†].

    Note †: E.g., Catholic priests were the only Christian “ministers” to attend to the religious & humanitarian needs of the seriously ill at the notorious “Andersonville Prison” (Ga.) during the War Between the States. And the Protestant prisoners definitely noticed that difference. Those claims, which appear on the surface to be sectarian-partisan, are documented in U.S. military records.

  188. llanfar says:

    @Gail Heading out to Triangle Shooting Academy @4pm with my wife. I’ve dithered too long. 3-4 purchases to be made.

  189. Compu Gator says:

    H.R. [said] 8 March 2020 at 4:33 am [GMT]:
    YSM: How can we make Trump look like an incompetent fool and lessen his chances of reelection?

    2 nights ago, when I visited a brother who is a Fox regular, he was watching MSNBC to see what the other side was up to: It was the Rachel Maddow Show. I’d never seen her before [×]. She was reporting–in a manner of speaking–on CoV-19, interviewing a high Obama-Administration official as the ideal of epidemiological management. And editorializing the Trump Administration as sluggish & incompetent. It appears that she has neither honesty nor shame, because G.C. here has much more credibly reported [*] that it’s been the Obamist Nancy Messonnier of the Trump-Administration CDC who’s sabotaged [†] logical & sensible federal response to CoV-19.

    May God have mercy on us here in the U.S.A.!

    Note ×: I’ll stifle my new-found personal reactions & speculation about her, out of concern that E.M. would object to some of it, even when presented without “colorful metaphors”. Well! Upon further review, Wikipedia has freed me from some issues of libel: “the first openly lesbian anchor to host a major prime-time news program in the United States.” . I’m shocked–just shocked!

    Note *: E.g., .

    Note †:  I don’t recall G.C. using the word “sabotage” in this context ; it’s my conclusion from her series of reports. Correction: Oh, yes, G.C. sure-as-[manure] did, albeit after my initial drafting, thus: .

  190. Compu Gator says:

    Sigh. I forgot to account for E.M.’s WordPressed HTML syntax:

    Note *: Should’ve included this URL: [https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/03/08/7-march-2020-covid-19-california-quarantine-exponential-math/#comment-126377].

    Note †: Should’ve included this URL: [https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/03/08/7-march-2020-covid-19-california-quarantine-exponential-math/#comment-126394].

  191. Gail Combs says:

    Yes, EM Your blog posts are a fitting memorial for Larry. His information is also featured on several of the threads Daughn put up with appropriate attribution. His wisdom will be greatly missed.

  192. Gail Combs says:

    Time for a bit of levity to clear the mist from my eyes.

  193. Compu Gator says:

    E.M.Smith [said] 13 March 2020 at 7:13 pm [GMT]:
    Not MY html syntax. Just how ALL worpress handles it.

    Indeed; I understand that quite well. In writing “E.M.’s WordPressed HTML syntax”, I was intending parsing as “the HTMLish syntax of the blogging engine chosen by E.M., which is WordPress“.

  194. cdquarles says:

    And the first confirmed case has hit my state, in the capital city (Montgomery). Of course, folks are panicking. Ugh.

  195. Ossqss says:

    Ok, we have a declaration of a national emergency, right? Where is the notification that we are supposed to get on our phones for the presidential alerts? That is the only one I can’t shut off. I would think it qualifies. Heck, they tested it last year. Now I wonder what actually does qualify for such. Asteroid or something?

  196. Compu Gator says:

    I, too, was saddened to read today of Larry L.‘s death, as I was trying to catch up on days of unread Chiefio postings after, well, never mind!.

    Larry’s postings inspired confidence that I had a good grasp of what was going on with CoV-19 (no thanks to the m.s.m.). As a de facto editor, he was obviously sifting huge amounts of Web content to find whatever was relevant for the readers here. He passed all the gut-level tests of credibility for not-quite-strangers on the Internet. I’d hoped to meet him whenever E.M. celebrated a house-warming here in Central Florida that would be grand enough to draw Larry from Colorado.

    Alas, I clearly recall being told by a senior local doctor (who’s a fellow of the American College of Interventional Cardiologists) that life-threatening medical events can be startlingly sudden, like a car tire blow-out (his example). I have a family member who’s rather recently verified that suddenness for himself.

  197. YMMV says:

    Since some poo-poo the corona virus, for example Cliff Mass:
    “Coronavirus is not even in the same league as flu, which also kills the youngest among us. We did not close down universities, businesses, and more for flu.”

    My question is the other way ’round, not that it kills less than the flu, but why didn’t they tell us the flu kills so many? Flu can lead to pneumonia (bacterial, viral, or fungal lung infection) and that is a killer, without much in the way of cures. Especially a killer of the elderly.

    Some stats here:

    Click to access pi-trend-report.pdf

  198. H.R. says:

    @Gail Combs – Is the ‘Daughn’ you refer to the same one who posted on CTH as ‘DaughnWorks247’?

    If so, I remember well the quality of her comments. She has some chops!

  199. Another Ian says:

    “How The COVID-19 Shock Is Different”

    “The COVID-19 crisis has struck the economic ‘machine’ in several places at the same time, as Figure 1 illustrates schematically. ”


    Via SDA

  200. E.M.Smith says:

    Italy just crossed the 1000 dead mark…

  201. Gail Combs says:

    Yes Daughn is ‘DaughnWorks247’
    She was banned along with several others from CTH so a different blog was formed. A bit ‘flakey’ at times but the board owner believes in free speech.

  202. Gail Combs says:

    Since I am a curious dig here type, I found the following that may be of interest on Larry Ledwick.


    This I think was Larry’s ‘fun’site photo gallery

    I hope there is someone who can takeover the care and feeding of the site.

  203. Bill In Oz says:

    It’s remarkable what news does not get published by the regular media…But can be found by looking beyond the box…

    Poland, Slovakia & the Czech have closed their borders ( within the EU ) to prevent the COVID disease getting established in their countries….


  204. H.R. says:

    @Gail – Great to know about Daughn. She was a fave, as are you.

    Mrs. H.R. doesn’t even roll her eyes anymore as we cross I-40 in N.C. on our way to Hilton Head and I wave to you and your hubby. She knows who you are now. :o)
    P.S. I still think I passed you 4-5-6 years ago as you were getting onto I-40. You(?) were towing a trailer with “Animal Parties Something or other… phone #… painted on the trailer. But I asked you about that a few years ago and I couldn’t recall the time or the exact date, it being more than a year later, so you could verify in your bookings schedule that it might have been you.

    We’ve been sitting out Hilton Head S.C. for the past two years and just been doing Florida. Next year, we might do Dec. – Feb. in Florida and then March in S.C.. If so, I’m going to nip up to N.C. for that monthly meeting that gallopingcamel mentions from time to time and perhaps catch you and the Mr. there.

    It has been really great to put a face to OssQss, Rhoda Klapp, and E.M.. Larry L. was on my list and was willing to meet & greet, but I have yet to trade up my truck for a trip through the Rockies and sadly, it is now too late for that. I was really looking forward to that.

    p.g. has said he still has out the welcome mat – he said to skip driving the trailer up to his place, though ;o) – but again my Western swing is awaiting an upgrade to a diesel truck to handle the mountains. The V-10 Ford just isn’t going to cut it. Mt. Rushmore and the Western National parks are on my bucket list.

    Both you and the hubby be well.

  205. Gail Combs says:

    H R,

    Let me know which of the Galloping camel breakfasts you are going to. We do not always make them. Now with this Wuhan virus we are staying put.

  206. M Simon says:

    Gail Combs says:
    13 March 2020 at 1:06 am

    I was being facetious. And if he knows that he knows the promise can’t be kept in a way ordinary people will look at it. He is lying.

    Worse – it is not even close. 10K to 15K tests a day for a while. That is considerably less than 1 million.

    But there is hope. A new plan.

    Our President knew it was a hostile takeover. No excuses.

  207. H.R. says:

    I stepped into panic buying at my local Kroger yesterday (Friday, 3/13). It was sort of fun to watch it while it was happening.

    I started my stock-up in February while still in Florida. When we got back home, I had most of the dry goods needed still in the pantry. I needed to fill in some meats for the freezer. I leave the freezer almost empty when we leave for 3 months just in case there is an extended power outage. I spent a whole, whopping $100 dollars ;o) to bring me up to a 3-month supply.

    Anyhow, I had forgotten 3 or 4 things so I went to the store for them, saw a nearly full parking lot on a weekday, and knew I was stepping into it. There were no carts available, but I only needed one of those little hand baskets anyhow, so I grabbed one of those.

    I got my few Items and then filled the little hand basket with a few extra things, “while I was at it.” Then off to the check out; all lanes open and lines of full carts in each, but our Kroger still has baggers so the lines move pretty fast.

    I got lucky and found a line with only 2 customers ahead. The first sale was “Dad” (late 70s) with “daughter”, son-in-law, and 14-15 year-old grandson and two very full carts with cases of canned goods, pastas, meats, and other stock-up items. I didn’t get to see the total, but I’d guess it was well north of $500.

    And of course, the guy ahead of me was stocking up, too. I got a kick out of seeing what “hunker down” meant to various people. This guy had 2 cases of Bud Light, a 12-pack and a 6-pack of craft ales, 2 12-packs of Bud Light Seltzer (whutzat?!?), 7 bottles of wine, and two cases of bottled water, Then he had two flats of canned soups, several jars of pasta sauce, several boxes of pasta, a case of tuna in those sealed foil packs – I’m assuming the less expensive canned tuna was sold out – and 5-6 family packs of meat, primarily chicken and pork. Oh, and 3 large bags of chips (crisps). His total came to $405.

    My little basket came to $43, only because I grabbed a few extra packets of hamburger for a shepherd’s pie down the road, some Nathan’s hot dogs that are dated out to June, some Oscar Meyer Thick cut bacon on sale for $3.99/lb (yay!), and some extra Carl Budig lunch meat packets. I love Nathan’s hot dogs!

    My forgotten stock-up items? Two of those fancy coffee creamers (Italian Sweet Cream and French Vanilla), and a couple of packs whole wheat sandwich thins. Those alone were $15!! I had to laugh at my own hunker down items. Fancy coffee creamers. Ha!

    I stopped at a Speedway gas station for gas on the way home. I went in and their little mini-mart was fully stocked. TP, paper towels, bread, milk, some canned goods, frozen burritos and such… hmmm… it seems that nobody thinks to do their panic buying at those gas station mini-marts ;o)

    Most people commenting here have reported in that they are well-stocked and prepared. If anyone happens to step into a panic buying situation, I’d love to hear what the oddest stock-up items were that you saw being bought. But I suppose when the shelves get kind of empty, anybody late to the party would have an odd looking cart of whatever they could find left over on the shelves.
    OH! Pet food. Don’t forget to stock up for pets, particularly if there’s a chance that you’ll be in an area that gets hit by an enforced stay-at-home quarantine. I stocked up for our critters last week. I do that anyhow, cuz I just don’t like to buy dog and cat food every week, but it hit me that they need stock-up food, too.

  208. E.M.Smith says:


    See my response to your uour very similar comment on the newer thread:


    What gets me is the local COSTCOs sold out of bottled water. This isn’t an earthquake with infrastructure damage. Quarantine doesn’t shut off your water.

    Then the Honey Nut Cherios pallet will be empty while the regular is still full, and the more nutrient dense oatmeal well stocked.

    I too noticed the smaller stores were stocked. When folks want big units cheap, they hit COSTCO, BJ’s, Sam’s Club, Walmart.

    Bargain Market Grocery Outlet had LOTS of trail mix, TP, cerial, bacon canned goods,… when the nearby COSTCO & Walmart looked very picked over.

  209. Gail Combs says:

    Now isn’t this interesting?

  210. Gail Combs says:


    From listening to Trump’s speech yesterday, it looks like he and his team built a LEGAL path AROUND the CDC using commercial businesses and researched exactly what the powers and ramifications were in declaring a State of Emergency. He also was up to something with the banks. Not bad for 6 weeks.

    Remember, while Obama could merrily stomp all over the US constitution and laws, President Trump has to be very very careful to not only stay within the law but be ready to defend everything he does in a court of law.

  211. cdquarles says:

    Indeed. The left razzes everything he does, so he has to invert stuff at times and exaggerate stuff at times. He’ll be called a liar no matter what he does. He is a quick study, too; so he’ll let folk talk then make up his own mind. If burned, he’ll discount that person’s advice if necessary.

    The panic has hit me. We went from one case to 19 in 24 hours. Since I don’t know the base prevalence, the testing methods and their sensitivity along with their specificity and positive predictive values, I don’t if the situation is worse than we think, or where we think it is, or better than we think. With floor to ceiling error bounds on all three, many predictions are going to be wildly off. That said, testing should first be done on the hot spots, so 1. we can get a good feeling on the bounds and 2. not find ourselves in a position where many, if not most, of the positives are false positives. Otherwise, we will be spending time and money confirming blind alleys instead of true trails.

  212. Compu Gator says:

    John Hultquist [said] 9 March 2020 at 4:23 pm [GMT]:
    The beginning, as with XstrongY says what to do and the back-slash within X/strongY
    says stop doing that.

    Yes! Please “stop doing that”:
    • The character “/” (ASCII 47) is the humble slash, or forward-slash if you want to emphasize the distinction.
    • The character “\” (ASCII 92) is the back-slash.

    Alas, you have plenty of company: Many presumably professional announcers on radio make the same mistake, and have made it into a pet peeve of mine.

    E.M. has already provided the appropriate technical correction on “angle brackets” [*].

    I now return you to your usual epidemiological programming.

    Note: E.M. 9 March 2020 at 8:33 pm [https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/03/08/7-march-2020-covid-19-california-quarantine-exponential-math/#comment-126322].

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