Well, the USA is now over 200,000 headed for 1/4 Million. So how’s that no masks and let asymptomatic spreaders run loose workin for ya? Oh, and over a Thousand dead in one day. Thanks, CDC! /snark
USA 215,003 +26,473 5,102 +1,049 8,878 201,023 5,005 650 15 Jan 20 Italy 110,574 +4,782 13,155 +727 16,847 80,572 4,035 1,829 218 Jan 29 Spain 104,118 +8,195 9,387 +923 22,647 72,084 5,872 2,227 201 Jan 30 China 81,554 +36 3,312 +7 76,238 2,004 466 57 2 Jan 10 Germany 77,981 +6,173 931 +156 18,700 58,350 3,408 931 11 Jan 26 France 56,989 +4,861 4,032 +509 10,935 42,022 6,017 873 62 Jan 23 Iran 47,593 +2,988 3,036 +138 15,473 29,084 3,871 567 36 Feb 18 UK 29,474 +4,324 2,352 +563 135 26,987 163 434 35 Jan 30
Looks like the New York / New Jersey area continues to lead.
New Orleans (Mardi Gras) and Florida (Spring Break) shooting up fast.
New York 83,901 +7,918 2,219 +505 75,540 New Jersey 22,255 +3,559 355 +88 21,900 California 9,807 +1,303 210 +30 8,747 Michigan 9,334 +1,719 337 +78 8,992 Florida 7,773 +1,032 101 +16 7,672 Massachusetts 7,738 +1,118 122 +33 7,606 Illinois 6,980 +986 141 +42 6,837 Louisiana 6,424 +1,187 273 +34 6,151 Pennsylvania 6,002 +1,041 74 +11 5,890 Washington 5,844 +362 250 +25 5,031 Georgia 4,748 +631 154 +29 4,594 Texas 4,068 +402 60 +4 3,901 Connecticut 3,557 +429 85 +16 3,472 Colorado 3,342 +376 80 +11 3,262 Tennessee 2,683 +294 25 +2 2,521 Indiana 2,565 +406 65 +16 2,500 Ohio 2,547 +348 65 +10 2,482 Maryland 1,985 +325 31 +13 1,885 North Carolina 1,717 +181 15 +7 1,697 Missouri 1,581 +254 18 +4 1,561 Wisconsin 1,550 +199 25 1,523 Virginia 1,484 +234 34 +7 1,448 Arizona 1,413 +124 29 +5 1,381 South Carolina 1,293 +210 26 +4 1,267 Nevada 1,279 +166 26 +8 1,253 Alabama 1,108 +115 28 +5 1,080 Mississippi 1,073 +136 22 +2 1,051 Utah 1,012 +125 7 +2 1,005 Oregon 736 +46 19 +1 717 Oklahoma 719 +154 30 +7 688 Minnesota 689 +60 17 +5 384 Kentucky 680 +89 20 +3 596 Idaho 673 +148 9 664 District Colum 586 +91 11 +2 433 Arkansas 584 +61 10 +2 532 Rhode Island 566 +78 10 +2 556 Iowa 549 +52 9 +2 522 Kansas 482 +54 10 +1 472 New Hampshire 415 +48 4 +1 355 Delaware 368 +49 11 +1 308 New Mexico 363 +48 6 +1 357 Maine 344 +41 7 +2 257 Vermont 321 +28 16 +3 305 Hawaii 258 +34 1 199 Montana 217 +19 6 +1 211 Nebraska 210 +33 4 +1 206 West Virginia 191 +29 2 +1 189 North Dakota 142 +20 3 105 Wyoming 137 +17 111 Alaska 133 +14 3 130 South Dakota 129 +21 2 +1 76 Guam 77 +8 3 +1 67 N. Mariana Is. 6 +4 1 +1 5 Puerto Rico 286 +47 11 +3 271 US Virgin Isl 30 9 Wuhan Repat 3 3 Diamond Cruise 46 46 Total: 215,003 26,473 5,102 1,049 201,023
Real Soon we go over 1 Million globally infected with the Chinese Wuhan Virus, WuHu Flu for you…
Thanks, China!
/sarc; for the severely sarc impared…
Musings from the Chiefio 
most of the deads had other very bad conditions but are counted as covid 19 deaths
if they had the covid while dying it is counted as dead from covid but that is inexact
some people had as many as 3 other serious health problem
yes the number of infected is high but most of them will not die,
and compared to other causes of death per year globally, the covid is a very small thing
these numbers from worldometer are from jan 1 2020 to march 25 2020 = less than 3 months
they dwarf covid19’s 30,000 deaths ( in the same period )
Seasonal flu, 113,000
Malaria, 228,000 deaths
Suicide, 249,000
Traffic fatalities, 313,000+
HIV AIDS, 391,000 deaths
Alcohol-related deaths, 581,000
Smoking-related deaths, 1,162,000
Cancer, 1,909,000
Starvation, 2,882,000
Abortion deaths 9,900,000
Everyone hates me for saying this, but the panic for the covid19 is an over reaction to a moderate killer compared to what is in that partial list
and saying ; but its contagious is not an argument
the flu is contagious yet we are not closing borders nor canceling shows
aids is easily transmisble yet we don t close bars or bath houses
the covid situation is way bigger than it should be
cars kill 10 times more people yet we don t ban cars
“”” but car accidents are not contagious”””
yes I heard that one too, but they still kill 10 times more people than the covid19
We got home from Florida on March 5th and our Chinese-born (now American citizen) daughter-in-law finally thought it was safe enough to visit us this past Saturday, the 29th.
She’s the one who was in Wuhan in December, Shenzhen in January, and Shanghai in February and missed getting hit every time.
1) She is beyond paranoid about this virus. I’m pretty sure her visit with us is the first time she has left their house since she returned from China.
2) I asked her if she believed the numbers coming from China and she just said, “No. They cannot be believed.”
Adding up 1 and 2, it seems that she sees the Wuhan Virus as a serious threat.
Add the WOM closed case CFR has now clicked to 20%.
Shit meet fan.
Was in Wallyworld today when the lockdown here was ordered. By the time I was exiting, it was like an ant colony on high alert in coming.
Thankfully, they still don’t drink my beer.
SHTF time is nearing a week away in my calcs.
Canadian Friend,
You are making a broken argument. Comparing end stage other causes to barely started Covid deaths. Bad logic.
IF we do not strongly and proactively take action against it, death rate will be between 10% and 20%. IFF you have a world class medical system, and do not exceed its capacity, deaths drop to about 1%.
10% of USA population is about 32 MILLION. While 1% is 3.2 MILLION. Those are the numbers to use for a valid comparison. For the world total, about 600 MILLION and 60 MILLION.
Note that this ignores the 20% or so that end up with permanent lung damage, sterility from testicular lesions, loss of sense of smell & taste, and other symptoms. There is more to this disease than deaths.
Do note, some healthy young do die from it. Hope it isn’t your child or grandchild…
By your logic, we must wait until we have the dead stacked like cordwood (as in Italy now) before starting to do anything. That is very poor reasoning and worse planning. It inevitably would put us in the hospital overrun state and 10% dead result (minimum, up to 20% possible). I’d rather not kill an extra 28 million in the USA from stupidity.
@Ossqss:
Partly, that is the result of many cases being early in their course, so not yet resolved.
However, that just points up the other inconvenient fact of this disease: most folks take a very long and uncomfortable time to recover from it. “Mild symptoms” just means “not quite bad enough to toss your ass in the hospital and drug you up”. Chris Cuomo had rigor so bad he chipped a tooth. A 20 something girl who’d posted how she didn’t care then got it, posted about the misery of coughing so much her throat was bleeding. There’s lots of formerly flippant folks describing how horrible their “mild symptoms” really were.
Some folks get heart damage. Some have kidneys damaged. Some have circulatory collapse. The survivors of the 20% hospitalized have a significant percentage that were strapped down on their stomachs for weeks with a ventilator tube down their throat.
Comparing number dead ignores the misery and damage.
Partly also it is places like Italy where the hospital capacity has been over run and death rate spiking.
So far deaths are much less than one in one thousand
in Italy they are at 218 deaths per million
that is not even close to 1/1000, it is roughly 1/5 of 1/1000, very far from 10 %
The USA is at 18 deaths per million, that is a microscopically small number that is over 10 times smaller than Italy’s numbers, that is even further from 10 %
if we use actual numbers, if we stick to reality, the covid19 is a very small threat ( compared to diabetes, aids, cancer etc etc )
the only way you can make the covid a super scary threat, make it a super big killer is by making up theoretical numbers based on…well I’m not sure based on what
why would it kill 10 or 20 % of the population? why such high rates? based on what ?
it only becomes the most deadly thing to ever hit this planet if you invent numbers that have no connection to what is going on
if I lost a loved one to covid19 it would make me very very sad, but it would not change my understanding of mathematics or my perception of reality…1/5 of 1/1000 would still be a microscopic number ( compared to the flu, aids, diabetes, cancer etc etc )
but never mind what I think or what I say, I am no one, I am not in charge of anything, let s look at what the experts, the people who are in charge are saying,
both the USA (and the UK) about 5 days ago in a White House video said they were revising their doomsday predictions to a much much lower number…for the UK they went from a prediction of 500,000 dead to less than 20,000…the USA did not get into numbers but admitted their predictions were very much exaggerated and way too pessimistic.
it is highly doubtfull and not very plausible we will jump from .01 % to 20 %……in Italy the number of new cases is going down already after only a few weeks…
yes we must take this seriously and be careful, but doomsday predictions that are a thousand times too pessimistic ( based on what? ) will only destroy the economy.
The stock market already lost Trillions of dollars in value in the last 2 – 3 weeks…we are destroying everything for a very small threat…( compared to other causes of death )
Pop quiz. What is the annual exponential growth rate for growth rates given in percent per day or in doubling time? (make a guess before you calculate it) Suggested values, 12% and 22%.
Canadian friend, The US is in lock down. Sans quarantines and travel bans, where has this virus not over-run hospitals? Please answer.
The answer is nowhere. In fact, even with quarantine and moderate travel bans, it has over-run hospitals.
So you are like the patient who’s life was saved by an amputation, complaining about the amputation. Yes, strong defensive protocols work, so foolish to complain after they work.
We have a couple areas where we know what happens. The Diamond Princess is an example. Despite semi quarantines, in short order 20 percent were infected. It would have gone to 80 percent without quarantine. Once proper seperation was done, there were exactly ZERO new cases. The Diamond Princess, with 100 percent of the population tested ( zero cases missed) will end with a case mortality of about 3 percent, as 84 are still sick, with 15 critical, and all had excellent hospital care. So 10 to 20 percent mortality is actually quite likely with overwhelmed medical systems)
Another example is the plus 1000 members of one congregation of one church group. Within less then three weeks, 80 percent were infected. ( Not the flu)
So Canadian friend, please name one city where Covid-19 has a foothold, and it was treated like a common flu, and the hospitals were not over-run.
I can name numerous city where, despite defensive protocols, the hospitals were overwhelmed. ( Waiting)
If, as you are avocating, we just moved on, every city would be overwhelmed and far faster then you imagine. Work would end regardless. When 30 to 50 percent of your labor fails to show up, and 5 to 10 percent are dead, nobody goes to work, quarantine or not. The medical systems we see overwhelmed in Italy and Spain and now New York, would look like a picnic compared to what New York would look like with another 30 to 45 days of true exponential growth. And, as there is no herd immunity, that is exactly what would happen. Four five six million infected in New York.
2 to 4 million out of commission for at least a month. One to two million seeking hospital beds. True hopelessness and panic would then be observed.
Canadian friend, the CCP in charge over China does not give a rats ass about a few thousand dead. They did not shut down their economy over a common flu. Do you think they did?
The city was already freezing up in panic on January 23rd when very strong defensive protocols were put in place. ( Lots of videos and testimonials to this). China had no choice but to take the actions they did. The deaths there were likely at least two magnitudes larger then reported. Given one more month of exponential growth, and the virus would have shut down the city with zero government mandate.
The first politician that actually does as you advocate ( treat this as less than or like a common flu) will very possibly be executed.
@Canadian Friend:
Static present analysis will fail. This is an exponential growth problem.
We know there is no immunity, unlike flu, so almost everyone WILL get it if exposed. Attack rate 60% to 80% depending on degree of social distancing.
Covid-19 at the START OF EXPOSURE so looking backward is useless.
Diamond Princess and others (Korean church) show infection rates on exposure in reality are very high. It is NOT a hypothetical.
We know from existing closed cases that the CFR Case Fatality Rate is at very best 1% WITH EXCELLENT MEDICAL CARE and lots of ICU beds (S. Korea data) but about 3% in most areas (China, W.H.O. calculations), and we know that about 10% to 20% of cases, if not hospitalized WILL DIE without that hospital care, leading to the 10% headed for 20% CFR in Italy where hospital beds are full and new patients do not get that care. Over 60 years old no longer get ICU care and are left to die.
We need not wait for 100% of Italy to be exposed, get sick, and count the bodies to know what the result will be. Current CFR x attack rate x population = dead.
Attack rate (how many get it) is at least 60% and likely 80%.
10% × 60% = 6% (being very conservative). Italy has 60 million population. So 3.6 million will die unless you do something to stop it. This happens in just a month or two. THAT is the reason for the lock downs (or better, masks too).
Saying we are not there so it isn’t real is the same as jumping off a tall building and saying you won’t hit the ground because you have not yet… as you pass the 2nd floor…
Per the appeal to authority:
It is a logical fallacy. But ignoring that…
They revised the numbers down based on DOING SOMETHING. You are advocating for ~’ignore it and do nothing’ that would give the bigger numbers. In particular, they are ASSUMING that a national lock down keeps peak demand under hospital capacity while they build a bunch more hospitals and ventilators.
You can not use the “doing things at crisis effort and speed” estimates to argue for the “do nothing” case. Again, broken logic in your argument.
1 Doing nothing: Hospitals over run, attack rate near 80%, CFR 10%-20%.
2 Doing enough to stay under hospital over run: Atrack rate near 60%, CFR about 3%.
3 Do lock down, build hospitals and ventilators like crazy, get retired medical staff and students at medical and nursing schools into service, tell old folks to sequester at home, promote hand washing and do social distancing, test like crazy for early treatment, etc.: atrack rate about 50%,
CFR can be as low as 1% as long as you build and staff new ICUs fast enough.
You can not use projections for the “do a lot” case #3 to justify the “do nothing” case #1.
Canadian Friend says:
2 April 2020 at 3:43 am
You don’t understand doubling.
It is like jumping off a 40 story building. You can fall for 39 floors and everything seems fine – so far.
The big totals are racked up in the last few weeks of the peak. We are not there yet. Barring an effective intervention expect 1 million and upwards for a total death count.
You can’t tell how serious it was until it is over.
I think what may be being missed is the size of the denominator as the testing in most cases has only been of patients that have serious symptoms due to the size of the problem. Yet we know that a huge number of people may be asymptomatic. Not only that but it seems that before anyone thought COVID-19 was outside China it was already spreading. I have acquaintances that went down with ‘flu’ in December/January that had they had the same now would be called COVID-19 all the symptoms. So I don’t believe that the mortality rate is particularly high, but I think that the serology tests for antibodies if done with a sufficiently large region by region sample will show that the infectivity is hugely greater than previous corona viruses (and remember corona viruses cause around 30% of the ‘common colds’).
And an input from The Spectator –
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think
Ian W says: 2 April 2020 at 9:06 am
“So I don’t believe that the mortality rate is particularly high”
Are you actually being serious?
At the current thousand a day that is 30,000 a month, ie a whole years worth of Flu deaths,(caused by 4 different viruses, not just 1) in just 1 month.
The deaths we are seeing in Europe are while there is lockdown and Social spacing going on, when was the last time you had to do lockdown and social spacing for the flu?
That is of course only the COVID19 related deaths, there are also all the other people who have and will die because they cannot get an ICU bed due to them being full up with COVID19 patients.
Hope to god you do not have a stroke, a heart attack or a car or other serious accident, because there will be no ICU bed for you or anyone else.
Patients needing Chemo, Dialysis etc will have to run the guantlet of going to a COVID19 infected hospital to get their treatment.
You and the “Canadian friend” please get real.
ps I can think of a lot of other names to replace “friend” in Canadian friend, but they would not be polite.
There is also the toll of many Medics of all types being out of action and dying putting an even bigger burden on the health services.
I am totally amazed that people can’t see all this.
To add to and repeat the above comments, we know from the Diamond Princess that with good hospital care 2 to 5 percent will die.
That is with 100 percent testing. There were exactly zero not tested.
The current CFR in South Korea, ( completed cases) is 3 percent.
There is no question the medical care in every major city will be overrun without strong defensive protocols.
There is no question we have not seen close to the worst case, as densely populated cities are forced to strong defensive protocols if they delayed too long. Yet without those protocols the exponential means all the economic harm happens, along with the horror show of those Wuhan videos, times 10.
IMV, if the world fails to recover economically, it will be due to the tremendous debt and currency debasement, and government influenced malinvestment, not a three month holiday.
E.M. says, “You can not use projections for the “do a lot” case #3 to justify the “do nothing” case #1.”
Thanks, I was looking for a one sentence summary.
Canadian Friend, I do understand your perspective. If, after careful consideration of the above, and you were in charge of a city of say 3 million, what would you do?
Your comments indicate that this is a minor annoyance, much less then a bad flu season. Now that you have read contrary evidence, what would you do? Many lives depend on your answer.
@AC Osborn:
Thnk you for keeping it polite. Remember that even our friends can be wrong some times, and even pig headed about it. I know I have a few times… My goal is just to do that as little as possible :-)
IIRC, in both China and Italy, the loss of medical staff was about 10% and they made up 20% to 30% of total cases. The high % of cases was due to the daily exposure and high infectivity overcoming protective measures. The high loss rate has been attributed to a mix of high initial virus load and being in poor physical status after weeks of 20+ hour days, grab & go food, emotional stress, no sun, run down from fatigue.
The BBC had a montage last night of doctors already dead from it in the UK. Photos of healthy people, happy in the prime of life, to a few healthy elders not ready to retire. Now dead. This disease does NOT just take the old & already dying.
Up top the phrase “destroy the economy” is used by CF.
In the USA, at least, this is about 85% accomplished. There is still a slight chance that the US will not go to deeper control by “progressives” but we are on a “persistent path toward democratic socialism.” [Daniel Henninger, WSJ ] Government is spending without limit, inflation, taxation, and nationalization (maybe not in name) of large parts of the economy will follow.
Many small businesses and the individuals that owned them, and their employees, are now impoverished. A few will recover – to something else – but most will not. Education – destroyed.
The government is going to send each of us $1,200.
All will be better.
And next month?
Canadian Friend –
A common mistake is to compare End of Season Flu numbers which include estimates All flu cases including assumed/estimated non symptomatic, mild and “normal” flu cases that stayed home and were never confirmed by an official test as well as hospitalized patients and deaths that were never confirmed by an official test. The logical way to compare is to compare Confirmed cases of flu from previous years to Confirmed Wuhan Virus cases. Confirmed cases of flu are Much lower than estimated cases of flu … just as estimated cases of Wuhan Virus will be Much higher than confirmed cases of Wuhan Virus.
Also, when one compares a previous seasons final flu numbers or even 2019-20’s flu numbers to the current Wuhan Virus numbers, one is comparing a final/semi final total to an early stage/developing number of Wuhan Virus confirmed cases.
More logical would be to compare Confirmed flu cases in week 4 of the flu “season” with Confirmed Wuhan Virus cases in week 4 (end of March – flu is always circulating pre flu season just as Wuhan Virus was circulating by end of Jan/Feb prior to “taking off” in March). That would be an apples to apples comparison.
The next thing to think about is the growth rate of Wuhan Virus v. the growth rate of the typical circulating strains of seasonal flu. Wuhan is Highly contagious. If we compare the confirmed seasonal flu in week 4 of flu season and the confirmed cases of Wuhan virus in week 4 (proposed last week of March or even the end of this week for fair statistical comparison) and then we project the growth rate arc…now we begin to see the Huge difference!
FYI: Confirmed Wuhan Virus will surpass the Confirmed cases of flu from the 2019-20 season as of today which means we already have more (remember the CDC reporting lags behind most known state health Dept results by a day). As of this week there were 242,330 confirmed cases of flu for this season. The other, higher numbers all include the estimates of unconfirmed cases.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
When one adds in the informed estimate of all non confirmed cases of WuFlu cases as the CDC does for the flu then one sees the materialization of the higher number of predicted total cases of infection.
Watching KTVU 2 (local S.F. station) they are having reporters in Italy talking about what it is like. Interesting point I’d missed: with high density living there are a lot more closed close spaces like elevators. Elevators are sized to be full for normal traffic. Not nearly enough to get folks in and out one at a time…
Something similar will be the case in NYC. Elevators at work and in apartments, with taxis or subways in between.
How can you be alone in a space made of small crowded boxes?
Saw this “evolving” advice regarding face coverings and though it might be of interest to readers hers. CA now has new guidelines. President Trump has mentioned covering one’s face multiple times and the CDC, etc., have always emphasized the need to save the masks for medical health care workers, first responders and for people who are caring for the sick at home…in other words prioritizing. The emphasis is that no one think wearing a mask is a substitute for all other precautions. Masks are in addition to the other precautions.
“The use of cloth face coverings >>could reduce the transmission of COVID-19 by individuals who do not have symptoms<< and may reinforce physical distancing. Public health officials also caution that face coverings may increase risk if users reduce their use of strong defenses such as physical distancing and frequent hand washing."
Emphasis mine. First I have seen of this admission other than President Trump's comments early this month and several times this week.
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OPA/Pages/NR20-040.aspx
Also, New York is issuing additional guidelines – closing playgrounds due to lack of social distancing. Being in groups and crowds, even in the open air outside is spreading the virus.
"New York City playgrounds will close to address the lack of adherence to social distancing protocols."
https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/home
Washington's hospitalization curve is trending downward. As a result of the initial cases beginning to resolve (discharged to lower level skilled care, recovering, passing away) v. a sustained downward curve? They had such a large initial surge and primarily in a high risk population that I wonder if the trend downward of hospitalizations will continue downward or is momentary reflection of the initial high risk surge resolving and will climb again as cases in the community climb?
https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus
The race against the growing numbers of cases to prepare hospitals & to grow the number of hospital beds available is being helped greatly by the "Shut Down"/slow the spread.
NC is doing a good job of letting the public know where they stand on empty hospital beds v. just how many Wuhan Virus cases are hospitalized. It is not about how many are in the hospital but how many beds are available – the saturation of the local/regional hospitals/health care systems.
Avoiding become "another Italy" is not just about the pure number totals or even about the percentage of the population infected. Most distressing about Italy, is their overwhelmed hospital system and that a Key reason to slow the spread – so that our hospital systems can handle the surge/influx of Wuhan Virus patients.
https://www.ncdhhs.gov/covid-19-case-count-nc#nc-inpatient-hospital-bed-count
CA is also taking a different approach to reporting hospitalizations which is very transparent and helpful. They are tracking hospitalizations of confirmed cases but also how many are hospitalized that are suspected cases whose test results have yet to be returned. This reminds us that in other states there will already be More hospitalizations that what the confirmed, announced cases reflect, i.e. a lag time between announced Wuhan Flu hospitalizations and actual increased hospitalizations and patients under treatment because of Wuhan Flu.
Again, this is why I like the NC reporting of empty/available hospital beds as that takes into account confirmed Wuhan flu hospitalizations, suspected cases awaiting confirmation/return of test results as well as all other hospitalizations for all other reasons. Its the empty/available number of beds that is the concern as Wuhan Flu cases surge over the coming couple of weeks.
CA is issuing stats about 24 hours behind, e.g. April 1's release is for March 31st's stats, for example and each day's release tends to come late in the day. President Trump, of course, receives all of these data on the most up to date, I am sure, reminding us that the numbers we know are always behind what he knows plus the projections & their match to available resources. He is acting today on what is coming in the upcoming weeks v. today's known & published Wuhan cases.
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OPA/Pages/NR20-039.aspx
I cannot reply to everyone it would take too long
but the emotional reactions are amusing
because they showed tragic images on the 6 o’clock news then it is true we will all get it and we will all die?…that is how science is done right?
the more tragic, the more sensational, the more endearing the 2 minute reports on tv news are the more it means something is true
if johnny’s grandma died then it is scientific evidence we should destroy the world economy right ?
yeah like when airplanes were gonna fall from the sky the day the date would change to the year 2000
or that 80 % of humans would get hiv/ aids
or that the hole in the ozone would kill us all
” oh but canadian fool , you don t understand !!! this time it is for real !!! ”
ok so try to forget about me for a few minutes, try to forget about your tv showing you the number of dead with a red flashing neon signs like the score of the super Bowl teams,
go watch the white house video I posted above and tell us why the UK admits their doomsday predictions of 500,000 dead were greatly exaggerated and have now revised them to less than 20,000
a number that is TWENTY FIVE TIMES SMALLER
and tell us why the top US experts are agreeing with the UK and are also saying their doomsday predicitons were WAY too pessimistic?
are they saying this because of me? am I their source? am I in charge of the USa nd of the UK ???
stop reacting with emotions and anger, be logical
I am the messenger, the numbers are not mine. they are real.
I use the numbers of the top experts and mention them to people who cannot see them as they are blinded by their doomsday panic.
one last thing
the analogy to falling from a 40 stories building, and feeling fine while falling, it would work if when there is a pandemic we knew in advance what the total number of dead will be once it is all over.
if we knew – right now – that in the end 40 million people will have died from the covid, I would admit, gladly admit, we have only begun to fall.
but no one knows
none of you knows
top experts don t know BUT they are now saying there will be much less deaths ( I repeat and it is in the video above; UK now says there will be 25 times LESS deaths )
why make an analogy with the worse scenario, why take for granted this covid is worse than the black plague?
maybe we are only falling from a 4 feet high table, and we have so far traveled 3 feet? and in the end it will have been a small fall ( small compared to the 650,000 per year that die from the flu to give one example )
18 deaths per million citizens in the USA is reality
218 deaths per million citizens in Italy is reality
it is sad and tragic that people are dying ( but they would have died of the flu anyway ) ,
and NOWHERE did I ever say we should be careless,
but compared to other things the covid19 is a much smaller threat
your emotional reactions are based on doomsday worse case scenarios not on actual numbers
your emotional reactions are based on a lot of ” what if?” big gigantic what ifs
yes if it turned out 20 % of us catch it you would all be right and I would be terribly wrong
but everything indicates the number of deaths will remain very low, and that 20 % is an exaggeration on steroid blown out of proportions
and I repeat, the UK revised their predictions to a number 25 times smaller and the USA agrees with them.
calling me a fool or telling me that johnny’s grandma died on the 6 o’clock news does not explain why those top experts have revised to a number TWENTY FIVE SMALLER.
Grateful Reader, the most critical data point is not just the “number of beds”, but the number of ICU beds.
Do they differentiate?
Canadian Friend:
You are reading emotion into comments where there is none.
You then proceed to ignore evidence given, and resort to your own emotion based dismissive and anecdotal “story telling” approach.
I see no reason to further engage when you refuse to acknowledge what has been presented, nor do you recognize or examine that evidence. Shouting into the wind is a waste of time.
In parting: please watch the exponentual growth in cases as the weeks go by. Perhaps then you will see the reality in your rear view mirror world.
again; it is not about me, it is the top experts in the video I posted above
why have they revised to 25 times less deaths?
no one is able to address this
[Note: addressed here:
-E.M.Smith]
Now I am going to be impolite, you are a bloody fool.
The reason that those “so called eperts” revised their numbers were because the first ones were for the first plan which was called “herd immunity”, ie just let it spread.
The new numbers are for when you plug in the lock down, social distancing, testing and medicines in to exactly the same model that produced the uncontolled numbers.
Boy do you need an eductaion.
Lots of uncertainty around on this.
What we know:
– This virus is very contagious.
– This virus first appeared in Wuhan, China approx mid November 2019.
– Travel blockage in China didn’t start until approx end of December.
– Travel blockage between China and rest of US didn’t start until end of January.
– First case in WA, near where I live, was Jan 21 (before travel with China was blocked).
– Travel between USA and some highly affected European countries wasn’t blocked until near the end of February.
– Fatalities on Diamond Princess was something like 12 (going by memory so may not be an actual fact) out of 3500 on board.
– Number of cases in US is based on confirmation by test given to those who are severe symptomatic so not a real measure of number of people who actually have the virus. Using the Diamond Princess as a breakdown of severe to non-severe cases there are likely more than 10 times infected than the actual count shows.
Unknown:
– breakdown on fatality rate of dead from virus and dead with virus – many fatalities were folks already at risk with one or more serious illnesses.
– How much the belated lockdowns in the USA have had on the fatality rate since the virus was already in country before any lockdowns.
– How well the virus spreads in real world conditions – is 6′ enough or do we really need 16′? – how much of a virus load will lead to a severe case vs a mild case?
– etc.
So… is the national “cure” worse than the disease? As with some cancer’s, the current virus treatment is to “almost” kill the patient (USA economy) in order to kill the cancer (virus). Is that actually appropriate – the uncertain numbers suggest that probably not, at least not at a national level. On the other hand, individuals more at risk would be very prudent to practice care (I’m one of those having asthma and have appreciated all of the common sense stuff discussed on this blog).
I have had hopes that the various treatment regimes with the anti-malarial drugs would reduce the FUD going on as it gives the medical industry the ability to treat the problem before it becomes severe enough to need the ICU. If that becomes the case, then there should be no reason to keep the economy shut down any more. At least, not in my opinion.
A C Osborn,
Either you have not watched the video, or there is something wrong with you.
Because NOWHERE she says what you said,
NOWHERE she says the predictions have changed because of things like social distancing or hand washing or anything like that.
She says predictions were wrong, she does not give the reasons you give, she simply admits their ” models” were wrong, and do not correspond to reality on the ground.
If the social distancing hand washing etc were the reason she would have mentioned it in fact would have celebrated it as fantastic, but that is not what she says at all
she says predictions were EXAGGERATED
she says NOT one nation has more than 1 in a 1000 deaths
it seems you made it all up in a desperate attempt at being right.
Since you either did not watch the video thus would not know what you are talking about ,
or watched it but decided to invent, fabricate, manufacture stuff she never said, never even remotely alluded to.
I see my education is about 50 times better than yours.
making up stuff to win an argument is what 6 years old do.
Dear E.M. Smith. Thank you for this website and your wisdom both past and present. I have been referring readers of other sites here for data and advice on the seriousness of the illness. I have responded to those who hate the present limtations thusly:
Yes, those who are older and who have other (maybe chronic) illnesses are the main helpless victims of a new, exceedingly infectious virus. Why should young folk “suffer” indoors just for the oldsters? Why should economy temporarily lag?
1. So hospitals can continue to function for both young and old. You want to go to dr or hospital for regular procedure or elective surgery if Wuhan-Virus is everywhere – just when you might be “compromised”?
2. So broken healthcare system be brought up to speed after 0 attempted to deep-six it. (Side effect – Americans can find out if their personal healthcare facilities are properly functioning. Find out and report.)
3. So healthcare officials will be protected as much as possible from the virus; they must not be overwhelmed – or become ill or die.
4. So we gain time – without massive deaths – to find palliatives, antidotes, cures, proper stats and research – that will not be high-jacked by big pharma or those enemies in love with everything China – especially their paychecks.
5. So we watch for the peak in every state. In Calif I think the projected date is approximately April 25; we are 36th state on list, so only a few more states with projections into early May.
6. So as we wait – patiently or impatiently – we demand proper numbers on the cures and on the antibody tests (to find those safe for going back to work – by this time the number should be huge. It seems most young people will have been exposed.)
7. And most importantly – antibody/resistance tests. I notice China is “advertising” a “new hotspot.” I thought: just in time to make “officials” mistrust antibody/resistance tests. I think we need to keep our eyes and ears on this one.
My hope is that we can stay true to President Trump. Watch the briefings. Push back on everything we can. Demand the truth and reliable data. How are data gathered? I noticed that our President demanded that all numbers be send to him, not just CDC, etc.
I expect our country and economy to begin to return to a careful “normal” around the first of May. By June all our Little Engines should be in the “I know I can” state of mind. And all those shovel-ready infrastructure jobs should be off the drawing board and beginning production.
Voting is the next knot to solve. If we have cures by June, we should return to normal and be attempting to limit the massive voting fraud that exists already – e.g., my entire state of Calif for example. Dems would not have overwhelmed CA’s H of R reps if voting had been without fraud, imo.
AC “The reason that those “so called eperts” revised their numbers were because the first ones were for the first plan which was called “herd immunity”, ie just let it spread.
The new numbers are for when you plug in the lock down, social distancing, testing and medicines in to exactly the same model that produced the uncontolled numbers.”
Could you link to where they say this or is this an assumption?
A C Osborne,
Quick answer is – yes, many are differentiating between ICU and other hospitalizations. See CA. NC includes both available hospital beds and available ICU beds. I like being able to glance at a dashboard and see total hospitalized, total ICU + empty of both as the empty number is reassuring as both gov and health care facilities race against growing cases/infection spread to increase bed availability for both.
And to what I am cautiously assuming is your point, that ICU beds are the most important for treating the most critical cases of Wuhan Flu and that if they are full we see many die quickly that would otherwise have been saved + the rationing of treatment, etc., similar will happen if general hospital beds are filled as Wuhan Virus cases need various levels of care and all will suffer if/when hospital beds are filled to capacity. Not all ventilation machines will be matched to full ICU capable hospital beds if the case load grows too rapidly.
Hospital bed capacity is expanding rapidly as the military augment local capacity, as VA system is being considered to augment local capacity, and healthcare systems are being freed to use non traditional beds such as surgical facilities and now freed to augment with quickly fitted hotels, dorms, etc. (as per press conference Sunday)
“Now, FEMA is doing incredible work, setting up temporary hospitals in New York and other areas. But under these waivers, we are empowering local communities to complement and augment the work of FEMA and allowing hospital systems to tap into the capacity that already exists in their communities, making use of dorms and hotels or gymnasiums, and allowing the main hospital to focus on those that need the most intensive care. There are surgery centers out there today that are delaying elective surgeries and they may have excess capacity that can be devoted to hospital-like care.”
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-briefing/
From my understanding – each level of care is being pushed to expand to lower levels of usual capabilities. Example: “regular” hospital beds would be used for patients normally put in ICU units, “regular” might go to the field and hotel “hospitals”, etc., during this emergency.
Hospitals were also freed to meet the need by rollback of regulations regarding discharge – patients normally kept in the hospital are being discharged more quickly to skilled care, skilled care patients are being discharged to home care with a nurse visiting and that category of care is moving patients to phone call check ups v. in person check ups as quickly as possible to compensate the the surge in need for in home care nurses. Each level of care is experiencing expedited throughput to free hospital beds.
Some discussion of this here:
https://www.healthcarelawinsights.com/2020/03/update-for-acute-care-hospitals-re-cms-waivers-and-hhsc-guidance-for-covid-19/
Point being – ICU beds are very important but All hospital beds capacity is important during the emergency as they are called into service to be quasi ICU + many Wuhan Virus patients need hospitalization without ICU and still saturate the hospital bed usage.
I have watched that video carefully about 8 or 9 times in the last week
nowhere does she say the UK numbers or the USA numbers are revised because of measures put in place or because such measures bore fruit
she simply admits predictions were wrong
that is what I have been trying to make people see
but they have an emotional reaction and see me as the crazy person who is delusional or dumb or uneducated
yet the facts are in the 4 minute video
and what I am saying is what she says ; the FACTS
facts from the best of the best people we have
not my facts not stuff I made up to win an argument
FACTS
the facts are reality, not my opinion
everything that has been thrown at me here was opinion and emotions or made up arguments pulled out of a magician’s hat
doomsday predictions of worse case scenarios are also thrown at me in a desperate attempt at being right, which only confirms what is in the video ; people are over reacting, the covid19 is a small menace ( compared to other things )
refusing to admit what is in the video is a symptom of that over reaction, it is irrational, emotional
Willis agrees with me that we are destroying the US economy with lock downs to no good purpose.
Require masks, yes, lock down, no
.
“As you can see, there is very little difference in the death rates between the various countries, despite the fact that they all have differing levels of health interventions to try to prevent the spread. They’re all following the same trajectory.”
.
Canadian Friend:
Not really clear what point you are trying to make but it is difficult to follow your logic.
You posted: “18 deaths per million citizens in the USA is reality”….No, more is already a “reality” as we have many unresolved cases..of those diagnosed, many will pass away (unless they receive some of the treatments showing great promise.
“Reality” is not only those who have died as of today, but those who already ill with confirmed Wuhan Flu diagnosis of whom a percentage will pass away. We have 210K confirmed, active cases as of this posting (according to worldometers), out of which a significant portion will pass away.
Basing policy, mitigation &/or judgment on Wuhan Virus significance on today’s death totals is ignoring the 200K+++ that are already infected and the numbers of those infected that are not yet tested, etc. 18 per million is just where are today…but we are on a train in the early part of the journey and have yet to reach the destination. the final state of per million will, sadly, be higher.
And, Yes, the projections have been modified based on the incoming data of how the spread is happening Post mitigations measures being implemented. The mitigation measures have Changed the course of the virus infection rate/spread. This has been explained in the Press Conferences numerous times.
Here is an example:
“All of the flu models predicted anywhere between 1.6 and 2.2 million fatalities, if we didn’t mitigate. I think you all knew those numbers. Some of them predicted half of the United States would get infected and have that level of mortality.
So we worked very hard together to really look at all of the impacts of the different mitigations that have been utilized around the world, and used that evidence base to really bring that data and that evidence to the President to consider for extending — which is not a simple situation when you ask people to stay home for another 30 days.”
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-briefing-14/
the initial models were based on flu models and the information of rate of complications, mortality, etc., that had been learned up to that point. Flu models include no to very little mitigation. (In our area, schools close almost every year due to flu but no other mitigation measures such as closing of businesses or public gatherings, for example.) However, after the initial models were made, mitigation efforts have been made and are showing huge results.
Now, the data is different based on US and reliable countries data being inputted + the new infection rates *because of mitigation* and we now have more finely tuned models and predictions.
From the link above:
“THE PRESIDENT: I just want to reiterate, because a lot of people have been asking, “Well, what would have happened if we did nothing? Did nothing — we just rode it out.”
And I’ve been asking that question to Tony and Deborah, and they’ve been talking to me about it for a long time. Other people have been asking that question. And I think we got our most accurate study today, or certainly most comprehensive. Think of the number: 2.2 — potentially 2.2 million people if we did nothing. …
And so, if we can hold that down, as we’re saying, to 100,000 — that’s a horrible number — maybe even less, but to 100,000; so we have between 100- and 200,000 — we all, together, have done a very good job. But 2.2, up to 2.2 million deaths and maybe even beyond that. I’m feeling very good about what we did last week.”
The New numbers are because of the results of the mitigations and fine tuned as we have better data coming from US and allies experience with the virus v. China’s data. But mostly, due to the mitigation efforts.
There is much info covered in the Press Briefings and some is repeated each day. Reading as well as watching helps to “get” all of the points made.
Lastly, any death due to Wuhan Virus is a person who would have lived longer without it. 60% of US citizens have pre existing conditions that open them up to complications and a higher risk of death. Saying “only” those with pre existing conditions is implying that this group is small v. actually being the majority of US citizens. Seeing that group skew higher is expected. If we had a straight 60% of Wuhan Virus deaths are of those who have underlying health conditions and 40% do not – that would mean that underlying conditions did not factor in. When we see 78% deaths with underlying conditions … that is expected esp. as 60% of all US citizens already have pre existing contains.
Not sure why I clicked Like, because I don’t like the content. But good, informative post!
@Ed Forbes:
The lock down effect and mask +gloves / washing effect are similar and for the same goal Near as I can tell, the CDC is avoiding masks due to a desire to hoover them all up for themselves, NOT due to lack of efficacy. IMHO, vastly superior would be telling the people that, asking them to make and wear expedient masks, and do strong social isolation where possible. We could have wrapped this up in a low damage 3 or 4 weeks but for screw ups and stupidity from the CDC, W.H.O, and to a lesser extent, F.D.A. and a bunch of Governors letting events happen.
But that was 2 or 3 months ago.
Given where we are now, IMHO, we could still handle this modestly well with a similarly over the top response, but we won’t. Incrementalism coupled with ignoring no symptom and low symptom spreading assure we remain on the exponential, just with a lower exponent. It moves out the date of the peak, but doesn’t change the area under the curve.
Instead of following the Korea / Taiwan / Singapore etc. model that worked very well, we are following the Germany / UK / France / Spain / Italy model that fails, and hoping to fail less spectacularly. We ought to pivot, like Czech Republic has, but won’t.
It isn’t a chouce of masks vs lock down, it is a choice of BOTH vs deaths.
This whole story really seems to be turning into “A Tale of Two Viruses”. On the one hand, the deadly killer “new virus on the block”, killing fit young people without mercy and taking full advantage of no-one having any prior immunity. On the other hand, the “just another” virus identified in the Icelandic study, of middling infectivity and with lethality less than regular flu.
The situation isn’t helped by every country using its own criteria for testing, the as-yet-unanalysed conflation of “dying of CV” and “dying with CV”, and the general unreliability of the necessarily partial analyses working from these disparate figures. One reason I like the Iceland study is that it had a decent sample size relative to (and because of) their small population, and tested a random sample of the population rather than (say) hospital admissions. And they come closer to C.F.’s point of view than to anything worse: Nothing special.
For my part, I don’t know what to think. Normally, when there’s anything respiratory going around, I’m an (unwilling) early host. So far this year, nothing, despite the fact that I’m taking minimal precautions beyond augmenting my vitamin intake for once. On the other hand, there are (or were last night) 120 people in our local hospital being counted, and 29 of their number have died in the last fortnight or so. Then there are people pointing out that in the UK, deaths this year are actually down overall on a normal year. I have suspended all judgement until afterwards, when more figures are in and opinion coalesces towards one view.
Meanwhile, I almost feel cheated. I should have this by now. Where is it, then?
Any minute now we roll over the Million Mark (and exponentially rising):
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#news
And there it is:
@Canadian Friend, tell us which province you are in so that we can follow covid19 in your area.
Ed Forbes: “Willis agrees with me that we are destroying the US economy with lock downs to no good purpose.”
There’s a difference between input and output. The purpose of “destroying the US economy” is to control the virus. We can debate whether that goal has been or will be accomplished, or whether it made any difference. While we wait for better ideas.
The “It’s just a flu” argument gets boring. The Spanish Flu is a better comparison.
Nobody expects the Spanish
InquisitionFlu.Effect of lock down on case growth, plus an open random trial of chloroquine if you are exposed:
By an M.D. seeing patients in the ICU…
Compare the New York vs California curves. That is why the lock down. Remember that California and Washington had been the hot centers first. We did the first lock downs, and then New York didn’t and took the lead.
IMHO, any county with even one case needs to lock down an area sufficient to assure all exposures were contained, Institute full contact tracing, mask wearing, etc. for three weeks, and eradicate the outbreak. Failure to do that just assures asymptomatic spreading gets to run and you are on an exponential growth curve with 3 to 4 day doubling time. Then once you wait for a few hundred cases to do something, you get to lock down the whole State, which will still fail to eradicate it unless you add masks as asymptomatic spreaders at the grocery store will continue. 700 cases identifued means 300 asymptomatic spreaders are still out there infecting up to 3000 more people. Until you address asymptomatic spreaders, you will lose. Hard.
Stunning number of travelers from China referenced in the article.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/disaster-motion-34-million-travelers-poured-us-coronavirus/story?id=69933625
@Ossqss – In the disaster-motion article you linked to, there was link to another article titled:
MORE: Coronavirus government response updates: New death projections raise pressure on Trump to call for nationwide restrictions
President Trump has resisted national edicts except where it’s clearly a Federal issue, such as banning travel from various countries.
The Feds, so far have been gathering data, making recommendations to the States, exploring preventives, treatments and cures, coordinating resources for the States to draw on, and cutting red tape that puts any drag on supplies or possible treatments. That’s the way it should be. Besides, the Federal sledgehammer of one-size-fits-all is rarely an optimal solution given the differences among our 50 States.
I have noticed over the past couple of weeks that the YSM has been baiting Trump to do National edicts telling the States what to do which would be an overstep of his powers and impeachable, and he would be, given this Congress. So far, he has limited his E.O.s to actions over which he – the Executive Branch – has proper authority, such as travel bans and, like or not (not!), requiring some companies to produce needed supplies like ventilators.
So, he hasn’t taken the bait yet. But never has it been so transparent that the Dems and the YSM have absolutely no interest in minimizing the harm and deaths in America from the Wuhan Flu. Instead they are focused on how they can use the current situation to get rid of Trump.
Spit!
Sweden is not locking down
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Sweden
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/sweden-coronavirus-approach-is-very-different-from-the-rest-of-europe.html
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/29/sweden-shuns-drastic-coronavirus-response/
Ed, true, all though they are doing more then they would fit a flu.
Sweden is early in the accelerating curve, and their complete cases CFR is horrible.
308 deaths, only 108 recoveries.
( Really bad) They are in the beginning of the steep part of the exponential. Soon they will be forced to do quarantines and travel bans.
I wish I knew more of their testing. I think looks like it was late in the event due to the high early CFR.
”
Meanwhile in Stockton…Did we mention San Joaquin County has more cases of COVID-19 than the entire Central Valley and Foothills COMBINED? 👀 pic.twitter.com/S9zvzdYK0Z
— 209 Times (@209TimesCA) March 30, 2020″
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/04/02/its-probably-nothing-79/
@Another Ian:
Stocton does not have more. Sacramento is in the 300s while Stockton is about 140…
https://infection2020.com
Be ware of click bait…
@H.R.:
Yup! The Dims have relaunched the Shitff Show to “investigate”…
Talk about tone deaf… any more of the Shitff Show they will find Americans ready to “burn it all down” looking closely at them as a good place to start.
When people are already next to exploding, it is a very bad time to be shoving more crap at them.
I wonder if the L.A. Mayor reads here? Just ordered folks to wear masks ;-)
One down, 2000 cities to go!
“How deadly is the coronavirus? It’s still far from clear”
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think
Via
http://catallaxyfiles.com/2020/04/03/a-fallacys-heyday/
Sweden is willing to be the control/placebo group in the study of lockdowns — so far. Very noble and self-sacrificing. I went to a Swedish newspaper source to learn more.
Tegnell: ”It’s all about doing the right thing at the right time. We will do that because then we can keep the curve flat. We shouldn’t close schools and such until we really have to. It’s all about keeping as few people as possible isolated and imposing measurements by force won’t help.”
“Löfven and Tegnell are not ruling out stricter measures to be taken, they just want to do it as slowly as possible.” — an incremental approach, not shock-and-awe.
Sweden is looking at a new study from Harvard to justify their approach.
“In a new study from Harvard University, four epidemiologists and immunologists have looked at how complete lockdowns can affect the spread of a virus in the long run. The results would support Sweden’s strategy. The best approach seems to be to push down the spread by 20% to 40% during the first 20 weeks, flattening the curve of people infected at the same time, and lowering the amount of infected during the whole pandemic. To forcefully push the spread down by 60% would mean fewer infected now, but more infected in a second wave this autumn.”
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/Wb50xj/drone-shaming-police-and-fines-would-have-little-effect-in-sweden
That study is this one, I think.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.22.20041079v1
readable press summary
https://www.christianpost.com/news/multiple-periods-of-social-distancing-will-be-needed-to-beat-coronavirus-harvard-researchers-say.html
@YMMV:
I’d rather be alive next year in the second wave than dead now so deaths later are lower…
“Models have issues. – E.M.Smith”
E.M.Smith [originally posted] 2 April 2020 [GMT]:
Looks like the New York / New Jersey area continues to lead.
New Orleans (Mardi Gras) and Florida (Spring Break) shooting up fast.
I seriously doubt that the flood from outside the State of Florida is primarily from “Spring Break“: What’s there left for “Spring Breakers” to do? All–or almost all–of the tourist “attractions” are closed, and all bars are closed. That seems to leave only the beaches, on which local gov’ts have imposed restrictions;e.g., Volusia Co. has at last ordered closing of all beaches (e.g., Daytona Beach), effective midnight tonight. Altho’ for visitors from the Great White North, maybe it’d suffice to be somewhere they could thaw out by breathing in the unseasonably hot Florida outdoor air. I believe that it’s primarily the [expletive deleted] New Yorkers and others from the N.Y.C. metro area, who have been notorious for decades among native Floridans, for their self-entitled rude selfishness.
Anthony Man at South Florida Sun Sentinel via Orlando Sentinel [excerpts from article posted] Mar 24, 2020 8:07 AM [EDT][*]:
New Yorkers visiting Florida must self-quarantine for two weeks, governor orders
[Fla.] Gov. Ron DeSantis issued an executive order Monday requiring people coming to Florida from the New York City coronavirus hot spot region to self-quarantine for 14 days. [….] DeSantis said Florida’s efforts to battle the coronavirus pandemic are being undermined by the influx of people from the New York area since the imposition of stay-at-home orders. He said there is “a flood of people still coming from New York City.” He said there were more than 190 direct flights from New York City-area airports to Florida on Monday. “I would reckon, given the outbreak there, that every single flight has somebody on it who’s positive for COVID-19,” DeSantis said. “So as we’re working to stop it in the state of Florida, you’re consistently having people come in from one of the top hot spots in the entire world.” He said he would issue an executive order directing the Florida surgeon general to issue quarantine orders. He said anyone from the Tri-State Area–New York, New Jersey and Connecticut–would have to do “a mandatory 14-day self-isolation.” Local or state law enforcement officers would meet flights, and Department of Health staffers would also do temperature checks. They’ll be told about the self-isolation order–and told that going to stay with a relative doesn’t count as self-isolation. [….]
So stop the [bleepin’] flights from New York! And its vicinity [×]. Or get his chum Pres. Trump to do it: Ground ’em! Whatevah! I concede that more direct actions that come to mind, e.g., ordering the Florida National Guard to deploy to use antiarcraft fire to stop the flights from landing, would create an unacceptable level of collateral damage in Florida wherever the aircraft crashed.
Today’s live broadcast of Gov. DeSantis’ more-or-less daily CoV-19 press conference has come-&-gone, but no change was announced about flights arriving from what he himself describes as “one of the top hot spots in the entire world”. Likewise Pres. Trumps’ daily CoV-19 press conference.
——-
Note *: Anthony Man: “New Yorkers visiting Florida must self-quarantine for two weeks, governor orders”. “We have lifted the paywall on this story. To support essential reporting, please consider becoming a subscriber” (quoted without comment by excerpter). <https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-new-york-coronavirus-lockdown-exodus-to-florida-20200323-vqbk4ri7grgqrfkt32hyctmxe4-story.html>.
Note ×: See also the related “A California Modest Suggestion”. Posted ⟨by E.M.⟩ on 23 February 2020. <https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/02/23/a-california-modest-suggestion/>, even tho’ it’s from 5 weeks ago, and the potential influx to California [××] is qualitatively different from the continuing influx to Florida.
Note ××: Pierre Thomas &al.: “Disaster in motion: 3.4 million travelers poured into US as coronavirus pandemic erupted”. April 2, 2020, 12:19 PM. <https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/disaster-motion-34-million-travelers-poured-us-coronavirus/story?id=69933625>.
Just about every country has executed the “incremental” approach. It doesn’t work all that well apparently.
@Jiim2:
OMG Hell yeah!!!!
“I’d rather be alive next year”
Right. A good day is one where I wake up.
Having said that, I have to quote Paul Simon.
And, I know a woman
Became a wife
These are the very words she uses to describe her life
She said, “A good day
Ain’t got no rain”
She said, “A bad day’s when I lie in bed
And think of things that might have been”
The paper with the model the Swedes like did say that flattening the curve was good for “buying time to develop treatments and vaccines” but then it did not include those possibilities in the analysis. That would be hard, but that makes their analysis a worst case one, and not a good prediction of what will actually happen. As long as there is a reasonable chance for vaccines, antibody treatments, drug cocktail treatments, better testing, and so on, then Sweden is wrong. Hit it hard, suppress it as much as we can now. Or else Sweden might be having some future “bad days”, some regrets.
Sidewise related …
Two left-leaning large super PAC groups that kickstarted a digital ad campaign targeting President Donald Trump’s coronavirus response have ties to a wealthy dark money network.
American Bridge 21st Century and Pacronym are cutting ads thrashing Trump’s handling of the virus and becoming two of the first super PACs to go after the president on the health crisis, The Washington Post reported. Both groups also have ties to two large nonprofit groups — New Venture Fund and Sixteen Thirty Fund — connected to a massive left-leaning consulting group.
https://dailycaller.com/2020/04/01/trump-virus-response-ads-democrats/
The growth rate in many places is declining from exponential trends. Italy has probably seen the peaks in both cases and deaths, meaning these will no longer set records every day like they had been. The U.S. still is showing exponential growth in deaths, but the rate of increase in cases has begun falling, so deaths will also. I’m happy that experts are revising their projections down and not up.
From all available evidence, use of masks is beneficial. Correlation is not causation but look at the experiences in South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and now Czechia.
The root benefit of wearing a mask is it drops the chances of infiltration, bidirectionally.
Let alone enforcing the distance expectation from a multi-dimensional standpoint.
JMHO.
However, I think most of the folks I hang with in the hood would achieve 50% of those results by simply wearing a bathing suit. I need brain bleach now. Oh the Pain! :-)
So, Ossqss, are you saying that The Mullett and Spandex are antiviral in the older “at risk” population?
8-)
I resemble that remark….
;-)
Here’s an interesting paper for those who understand ACE2.
Click to access CELL_CELL-D-20-00739.pdf
“Inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 infections in engineered human tissues using clinical-grade soluble human ACE2”
“These data demonstrate that hrsACE2 can significantly block early stages of SARS-CoV-2 infections.”
Ed Forbes says:
2 April 2020 at 5:26 pm
Willis agrees with me that we are destroying the US economy with lock downs to no good purpose.
How many people missing from a production line will shut down the line?
Official shutdowns may help with hospital cases. Ad hoc shut downs help with nothing.
I was a bit surprised about what our Canadian Friend was saying, but maybe it’s from not seeing that exponential growth combined with the delays between when you do something and when you can measure a result.
Let’s say at this point in time we have 1,000 people who test positive. If we suddenly introduce total isolation between people (no interactions at all) then the time it takes for incubation and symptoms to show is around 12 days. Since we know that, when nothing is done, the doubling time is around 3 days then in that 12 days we’ll have 4 doublings so we’ll have 16,000 or so people who will test positive. That’s because they are actually infected now but we can’t measure that until they show symptoms. To get to the point of people dying in intensive care is around another 10-12 days on from when they are known to be infected and have gone to hospital, though it seems some people will be in intensive care somewhat longer than that. Let’s say however it’s 12 days median, so that’s another 16 times on top or 256 times the number of deaths you’re getting today – because the people who will die in 24 days or so are already infected today.
Thus there’s a delay between when you implement some protective measure (social distancing, masks) and seeing results. The increase of around 16 times the number of infected and 256 times the number of deaths is already baked-in, and you can only fix that by finding a cure.
Thus “doing nothing” because at the moment only a few people are dying (and in any case they are mostly the old farts who are costing the State more in pensions and medical bills) is going to result in a lot more illnesses and deaths than a linear increase would imply.
There’s a pretty good analysis at https://drhoffman.com/article/covid-19-update-the-good-the-bad-the-confusing-latest-developments-in-the-treatment-pipeline-for-the-novel-coronavirus/ that states also that some physicians are reserving stocks of HCQ and Azithromycin for their own use (implies that they see enough evidence of it working). We know the contra-indications and downsides of those drugs pretty well, so hopefully there’s a push to increase the production. Less chance of unintended consequences if it works.
Overall, though, I suspect that the infection rate is way higher than the official figures show, and that the fatality rate is thus actually at least an order of magnitude lower than the figures tell us. Somewhat of a genetic lottery, and what else is wrong with you when you get infected that affects how you respond. Once there’s a widely-used test that shows how many people have already been infected and recovered (and may not have noticed it) then we’ll have a better viewpoint on this.
Still, the “do nothing” strategy will overload the medical facilities and cause a lot of unnecessary deaths, so it’s not really an option. At the least, getting people to wear masks will slow the spread and reduce that overload. Since a lot of people will be asymptomatic spreaders, even in places like mine with officially no cases it’s still likely that some people have it and are spreading it.
I’ve been wondering if the Italian (and French) problem with so many old people dying from this is the yearly ‘flu vaccines that are offered to the aged. Does that sensitise people to this Corona virus (ADE)? I’ve never taken it up, since I’ve seemed to be naturally pretty immune to them anyway. Incidentally the French death figures have just been bumped up since they realised that a lot of the deaths of people in care homes hadn’t been counted.
Get rid of the TLAs!
My wife asked a good question a day or two ago. On a news show, I’m assuming it was FOX, they were talking about the CIA informing the Whitehouse about the Wuhan virus in mid(?) January, about the time the virus was poking its way into the news.
She wondered why didn’t the CIA know all about the virus in early or mid-December? They are supposed to be spies and spying, so what the @#!% were they doing to miss that China was very concerned with their outbreak? They should have caught a clue within a few days or maybe a week if they were any good at being spies.
Good question, IMO. It appeared the CIA pulled an Obama and only learned about it on the news. And if they did know and were withholding the information to damage the President, again, why the heck do we need the CIA if they are letting politics override their duties?
Runtime 31:10
Wasn’t sure where to post this… but it lends some support to Canadian Friend (whom I disagree with).
Not sure what to make of this. On the one hand, I expect many hospitals to be underutilized due to the cancellation of all elective surgeries. But there’s an obvious disconnect here.
H.R., you posted: “They are supposed to be spies and spying, so what the @#!% were they doing to miss that China was very concerned with their outbreak? They should have caught a clue within a few days or maybe a week if they were any good at being spies.”
From leftist news sources so take with a grain of salt. China had clean up a network of US informants/in country spies. How? Other sources imply via info from Clinton’s unsecured server. IDK (can easily find articles concerning this claim as the source of CCP’s info but nothing is publicly proven as far as I know) But either way, well known that China found and executed US informants in very recent years.
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-china-found-cia-spies-leak-2018-8?op=1
If you are interested in learning more:
CCP spies are here in US: DiFi’s spy just one example. If President Trump was found to have had a Russian or Chinese spy imbedded in his staff for that length of time there would have been absolute H*ll in the media and Congress – insinuations, accusations and impeachment, etc. Why were more questions not asked and why was there not more outcry from the media and congress, even the GOP congress?
Other spies and CCP connections are being uncovered. See esp. in Universities and in state connected business and research deals. See AG Barr’s comments to governors. See outspoken conservative congressional leaders on the issue (esp. universities) such as Sen. Blackburn. Question of political connections, favor, IP theft, etc., between US elected and bureaucratic “leaders” to/with/for China over the years are coming to light.
And there is the issue of political correctness and “multi cultism” that prevented taking stronger actions &/or asking better questions &/or reaching better conclusions.
Lastly, and Very, Very lastly, (b/c I don’t like “conspiracy theories” where there is no hard proof – examples of all of the above easily available from reputable media with internet searches) always rumors concerning on whose side various, individual CIA actors are playing.
Well, it is all well and fine for the uber prepers to cry lock down when they dont need to go out. What about all of the people that keep the country running…down to the lowly supermarket checkout clerk. Once again the poor get poorer and the rich get richer. If turd was worth something the poor would not have rectums.
Why should the essential workers be taking a bullet for you?. For what reason? Let the gangs roam the countryside looking for food. At some point you have to take the essential workers into account. At some point you have to ask yourself why them? Why are you all expectiing someone else to take a bullet for you. Sod that.
You close everything or you close nothing. Fair is Fair. Let the smug look after their own by force of arms if they have to. Read Cormack McCarthy The Road. If you dont believe it is headed there then open up and take the consequences.
Do you have anything to actually contribute other than bitterness?
No, I thought not.
USA cracks the 1/4 million mark:
Also looks like warm areas are not getting a pass. At the bottom above: Chile, Ecuador, Malaysia all in the thousands and growing fast.
I saw a Dr. on Fox news spewing obfuscation on the mask issue. She said there was controversy over if air spread was via “bubbles” or aerosols. Actually, it should be large droplets vs aerosols, but maybe we do emit bubbles also. But she claimed that aerosol spread only happened in hospitals, implying that’s why the “authorities” said only hospital workers needed N95 masks. Right. I didn’t catch her name, but I would let her touch me or anyone I cared about. She is a liar.
Willis updates. He uses the $2T fed bailout #, where the # is MUCH higher taking in the costs borne by the public
.
“ Suppose the “flattening the curve” saves 10% of them. By all indications, it won’t, but let’s use that number.
.
That means that we have spent two trillion dollars to save maybe 8,000 people.
.
And that, in turn, means that we’ve spent a QUARTER BILLION DOLLARS PER PERSON, most of them over 70 like me but unlike me with other diseases, and put our economy in the crapper in the bargain. I may be wrong, but somehow I don’t think my life is worth a quarter billion dollars.”
Ag man we have spit talkers in their millions, dont pretend they dont exist. Sucks Fake I have spent my life avoiding them. What to look out for is a slack lower lip. Teachers that wet your face. Shite avoide at any cost.
@FundMe:
Please try to be a bit more polite and less bitter about things. Also, while a well worn metaphor, “take a bullet” ought to only be used literally here for cases where someone was actually shot.
Why?
Because I’m a gun owner, and advocate. I promote responsible ownership and use. That means “the left” would like a reason to shut me down or disparage me and my site. So talking violence, especially if, even tangentially, connected to guns or shooting, is discouraged. While you have not crossed that line, you walked near it. Thus my notice.
Also: You have thrown 3 stink bombs in a row rapid fire. That is a signature of Internet Trolls. Tossing inflamatory remarks attempting to start a food fight. I know anyone can do it sometimes if emotional enough, so again, no line crosed, but you can see it from there.
Realize I must constantly defend against Troll Farms (foreign and domestic) as well as various political actors with agenda. Anyone who “tickles a signature” enough times, will get booted. Usually after some warnings. It isn’t a perfect method, but it is the best I have found. Much like my rules that dump SPAM. Not perfect, but keeps the place relatively clean and pleasant.
IF you are looking for a place to have contention and flame wars, this is not it.
If you are looking for polite conversation that requires some thought, enjoy it.
Note that tossing opinions while ignoring the points raised by others, ignoring the counter arguments, is impolite. See above where Canadian Friend was being repetitive while ignoring the salient points I’d raised. The result is a “You have closed mind, no reason to engage what does not engage” notice. If irritating enough long enough, that goes to moderation. I’m not interested in being a place for “click bait” nor “talking point posts”. Be relevant and engage politely with counter points, or be irrelevant.
From a commenter on another board
Out-of-order. The last comment was in response to:
@All:
There appears to be an organized effort to gin up resentment toward the lock down. I don’t know who, or why. I would speculate two more likely cases:
1) Democrats and Friends Of DNC trying to damage Trump.
2) Enemies Of The State trying to get us to damage ourselves.
In some cases, they can be the same. For example: China is best buddies with the Socialist / Marxist wing of the DNC and it would love to kill off a few million Americans while getting Trump out of office (so they can go back to sucking us dry with DNC help).
So be aware that such folks will likely be issuing Talking Points to bands of Useful idiots and launching their Internet Troll Farms. I’ve seen it before.
While I can’t be certain that C.F. and Fund Me are such, they do seem part of an early stage pattern. So consider me on alert for that kind of pattern forming. New, or rarely heard from, voices, pushing the same agendas…
EM Cant agree more with your point of view however I have spent many years in the army/military. not any more, but I have allways resented people thinking I should take a bullet for them. I do not understand why they claim the right. We are all in it together or we are not. To expect others to get in the way of the virus while others hide at home is not right.
Rest assured I have no agenda. Hidden or otherwise.
“ There appears to be an organized effort to gin up resentment toward the lock down”
Yep, I am trying my best to see it ended. I consider it a stupid waste of resources.
How many bankrupt businesses, foreclosed homes, and destroyed retirement plans are needed for each extra death saved. Note that I am saying “extra” as in those saved specifically due to the lockdown.
Sweden without lockdown is tracking the same rate of death to the virus as does the US with lockdowns.
https://i1.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/corona-deaths-aligned-20200331-2.png?w=713&ssl=1
The trajectory looks simillar for all countries perhaps that shoudl telll us something? Ne?
Flattening the curve gives us time to find out what drugs/treatments are working. That way, when others get CV down the line, they won’t overburden the hospitals and probably won’t die. It’s difficult to imagine all the costs of a course of action. I’m good with social distancing, masks, gloves, and eyewear for now; but I want to see drugs known to work being used freely real soon now.
Jim2 the way I see it is is that 2000000000 deaths are so many free beds. Horrible as it might seem. life goes on
Well, may you make free a bed, in that case.
sorry hospital beds jim2 I wish I could change things.
Well, may you make free a HOSPITAL bed, in that case.
Looks like Rush Limbaugh is pushing the “economy destroyed for nothing” story, so that will be seeding millions of Rush Bots. Oh Well.
He was highlighting California as something like 5th largest economy in the world completely shut down. Well, no.
Today we went out. Spouse needed a chiropractor. We audited activity visible from the road. Open sectors:
Medical. About 1/6 of the economy.
Financial, including banks and insurance. Another huge chunk.
Groceries and food. Big chunk.
Animal care (pet food and vets).
Gas stations, car repair, tire stores.
Bicycle shop (curb side pickup only).
Fast Food / takeout.
Hardware & garden stores.
Lawn and yard maintenance.
Government (about 1/3 of the economy right there)
Some construction / maintenance crews (working at private homes and some at schools & parks fencing off play areas)
Drug stores
Schools, though physically closed have online classes and parents doing drive by packet pickup, so still operating, just differently.
And undoubtedly more I didn’t notice or forgot.
Also note: The I.T. guys and Telcos are obviously working to keep the rest going. My son works for a Tech Software company. He is still working, just from home. Local media is still working, again just from home. Local news anchors reading from their computers to their computer camera. While I didn’t hit the countryside, I’m pretty sure the farmers are still farming as food is still in the stores.
Update: While doing dishes… was reminded utilities are also still running. Water, gas, electricity, garbage, sewer.
All up, I figure that’s over 2/3 of the economy right there.
What is closed, hit hard:
Sit down restaurants, gyms, movie theatres, bars, sports venues, concerts, misc. small retail, non-critical manufacturing (mostly from China now anyway), shopping malls, personal care salons.
Basically, looks to me like a lot of “selling Chinese made stuff” plus selected personal services (financial and my tax guy still working) and entertainment (though Netflix, Prime video, CBS Online, Disney online all going great guns).
In short: By observation, the California economy IS NOT SHUT DOWN. Only some sectors, and them a smallish subset.
Supposedly last week national unemployment was 3.3 million. That still leaves about 155 million employed. So again I’ll say it: The economy is not shut down.
Has interesting charts of % in ICU, die / survive, etc. Breaks it down by age, gender, BMI, etc.
Ossqss: might have some of what you were looking for.
I just got this in an email
“An anti-parasitic drug available throughout the world has been found to kill COVID-19 in the lab within 48 hours.
A Monash University-led study has shown a single dose of the drug Ivermectin could stop the SARS-CoV-2 virus growing in cell culture.
“We found that even a single dose could essentially remove all viral RNA (effectively removed all genetic material of the virus) by 48 hours and that even at 24 hours there was a really significant reduction in it,” Monash Biomedicine Discovery Institute’s Dr Kylie Wagstaff said on Friday.
While it’s not known how Ivermectin works on the virus, the drug likely stops the virus dampening the host cells’ ability to clear it.
The next step is for scientists to determine the correct human dosage, to make sure the level used in vitro is safe for humans.”
The job losses are just starting to really pile up. A friend of mine owns a body shop that will have to close soon due to NO parts available. They are currently working staff at 50% to stay open as long as possible. Job losses is the service sector is going to steam roll for this reason.
Consider that unemployment in the Great Depression of 1933 was less than 25%, and that did indeed wreck the economy.
https://www.thebalance.com/unemployment-rate-by-year-3305506
“One chart from Bespoke Investment Group, a New York-based market analysis organization, lays out the extent of the massive losses now underway in the nation’s labor market. “
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chart-us-labor-market-job-losses-coronavirus-one-single-unemployment-2020-3-1029014736
@Ed Forbes:
If you are going to hype panic, please do it with decent sources. You cite a graph that just drips with “lying with statistics” techniques. It does not start at zero, so as to exaggerate the change. The vertical axis is not labled, so measures nothing it will identify. Units unknown. 4 of the 5 items graphed are stupid / irrelevant. # of gooogle sesrches? Means nothing. I just did one to find the present rate. THREE that are “implied” numpties. I’m now sorry I wasted time to look at it. Then, in the Click Bait section:
“SEE ALSO: Goldman Sachs: The stock market’s biggest driver will plunge 123% in a brutal 2nd quarter »”
Since things can only ever plunge 100% of value, clearly bogus.
What wrecked the economy in The Great Depression was our short experiment with Progressive Socialism. I’d go into that deeper, but it takes a few books worth and weeks… (I’m an Economist by training, BTW) Prior similar banking panics resolved much faster and without a great depression. Only after the Progressives were in charge did their Socialism Lite screw things up royally. The unemployment was a symptom of the depression, not the cause.
Ivermectin will also get rid an any cooties you may have picked up :)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivermectin
It’s interesting that Ivermectin is being researched as an anti-malaria drug, per the Wiki article above. What the heck does CV have in common with the malaria plasmodium. Interestingly, it kills the plamodium and the mosquito that carries it. Ivermectin is truly a wonder drug.
@Another Ian:
Very Interesting! Ivermectin is what I used on my bunnies to cure wry neck (parasitic infection). It is widely sold as cattle wormer. I may still have some in a bottle here.
It is used as a drench. Pour on the skin and it soaks in. I’ve absorbed lots of it. The toxic dose, if any in a reasonable range, is high. I’ve rubbed a cap full of it on with no noticeable effect (other than not getting worms or parasites :-) Welcome to farm boy life …. it can kill some dog breeds (beagles IIRC) with a poor blood brain barrier. Also one rabbit breed (Dutch pattern?). But animals and humans with an intact blood brain barrier don’t notice much.
IIRC, about $20 for bottle sized for several sheep. Amazon has it at $30.ish
Would be nice if it works.
Very interesting to see the Trump Admin pushing for crowdsourcing for medical research. Trump Time …. and bypassing or parallel to the FDA and CDC? I am intrigued by the out of box thinking that is coming to be expected by the Trump Admin.
In reference to the post above: Yes, I have noticed that even many Trump supporting sites, blogs, social media pages, etc., are sharing misinformation, twisted “truth” and outright fake news about this situation. Surprising to see long time conservative and Trump supporting sites that had a good track record of accurate information to push low info/misinformation/fake news. Sad. Worse time to undermine a President is during a National Emergency. Tired of it but we must fight fake news wherever we find it. More important now that ever as some of this is literally life/death.
Excellent point re: most of the economy is not shut down. Wonder how much of the shutdown is psychological as it is mostly the public use businesses that are shut down, the most visible businesses + schools which is also very visible and impactful.
Interesting the medical care industry is open but is being hurt as they have had to put out an enormous amount of cash to buy supplies and equipment to prepare and yet have drastically reduced elective services in order to further prepare by freeing additional staff and resources. Cutting staff, laying off and reducing salaries – even though open.
Ed Forbes, while your perspective is worthy of conversation your lack of answering cogent points made that refute your perspective is irratating.
As you do not address the many counterpoints I feel inclined to ignore your continued comments.
For now, just one. You are very wrong about Sweden IMV.
While they are doing considerably more then they do to counter a common flu, you are correct they are not doing the more complete quarrantines and travel bans.
You are incorrect however in saying they are following the same trajectory. While they are on the upside, they are not showing any signs of ” flattening the curve”
Sweden is not tracking the same death rate as the US.
US vs all US cases 2.6 percent CFR
US vs complete cases. 37 %CFR
Sweden vs all cases. 6%CFR
Sweden vs complete cases. 66%CFR
Please show that you read and acknowledge your error, or refute.
Please read this Jo Nova post and tell us what she asserts, and why she is right and wrong…
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/04/ancient-technology-wins-quarantine-and-isolation-still-work/
At last: CDC Catches up… 2 months late. Advising voluntary wearing of cloth masks in public.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220302011
Fund me says, The trajectory looks simillar for all countries perhaps that shoudl telll us something? Ne?
If true yes, but it is very untrue.
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/04/ancient-technology-wins-quarantine-and-isolation-still-work/
Same challenge, please read and acknowledge where she is right, and where wrong.
To lighten things up a bit
https://forums.atari.io/topic/4678-coronaville-song/
Now back to our regular program
David, I look at the chart Willis updates, posted before, and Swedish deaths are tracking the US. Do you say that Willis has it wrong?
David, I looked at J-nova’s post as you asked. My issue is she bases on tested, not deaths. Testing is all over the ball park so I do not consider it as reliable as looking at deaths. Deaths also can get weird, see Italy, but overall I consider it to be a better metric than testing.
Deaths trail about 3 to 4 weeks after sickness shows up. Static analysis using deaths now vs sick now will fail spectacularly in an exponential viral growth phase, as we are in.
Better is the:
deaths / (recovered + deaths)
which is the standard method.
Why? Because it takes about 6 weeks to die. Comparing deaths now to infected 4 to 6 weeks ago would also be reasonable. Not fully dynamic, but does account somewhat for the time axis.
In the MedCram video here:
You find good ICU statistics on deaths and totals. He is an M.D. working with Covid-19 in the ICU.
Of the infected, 80% recover without hospitalization. They do suffer a horrible disease, are debilitated for a few weeks to months, lose sense of taste and smell, some males end up sterile, some folks cough up blood or have permanent lung damage such that a few yards walk leaves them beathless. Those are the “minor symptoms”
20% are hospitalized and about 5% to 10% go to the ICU. Of them, 1/2 die. Overall, that is a 2.5% to 5% dead.
Best estimates are 60% to 80% WILL get the infection. That makes overall deaths between 1% and 4% of the population die. That matches the observed rates WITH GOOD HOSPITAL CARE . Once your hospital is full, the 20%:that only live with hospitalization, instead die, we see this in Italy with death rates about 10% last time I looked.
These are not speculative numbers. They are based on observations.
When 60% of your workforce is out sick for several weeks AND 10% of your population is dead, your economy collapses anyway.
But doing a “stay at home” for a few weeks, you do not overrun your hospitals. Deaths stay close to 1%. Your workforce is preserved, medical costs mitigated, and financial impacts compensated by government monetary policy. Vastly preferable to killing millions of citizens.
Comparing Sweden to USA under a lock down requires waiting for the 3rd or 4th week due to the latency of viral symptoms. Again: STATIC ANALYSIS FAILS in an exponential dynamic case. More so with time lags in effects.
Ed, yes, go to Worldometer.
My numbers are accurate. The curve has not flattened in Sweden.
Willis has lots wrong. First of all CFR in an exponential growth situation is best based on case numbers from 10 days to to two weeks ago – the mean time to death. However, I gave both, closed cases and total.
In truth CFR is very affected by testing, as much as cases if not more.
Why? Because of who gets tested, and when testing starts relative to when the virus started. Start testing late and only test hospital cases, you up the CFR. However both the numerator and the denominator are underestimated. Many deaths caused by this are put down as respiratory causes of death. ( Links if you wish)
Jo’s post is excellent. Why? The testing methodology did not change in the nations listed. Therefore the drop off is real. It is also immenitely and clearly logical. The virus only spreads by social interactions.
Re: E.M. Smith’s post @ 12:30 am blog time:
Perfect post. Exactly what I have been saying in other locations – except you say it so well and so succinctly. I feel like I have found a refuge of logic and facts on this issue!
Yes, can you imagine have huge sick outs across vital industries and services, government and utilities, etc. had this virus been allowed to run rampant? Better to have a controlled spread.
KEY is hospitalization rates. Many keep looking at the death tolls not understanding the disaster in overrun hospitals/overwhelmed medical systems which would spike the end death totals even more as we would not be able to treat everyone as needed, all being avoided (hopefully) by a controlled spread rate of the virus/limited spread rate
Another illogical “fact” being pointed out is that death totals overall are down and so this much be a “hoax”. No, death totals, car accidents, flu infections…all down, in large part due to shut down/social distancing mitigations being done to slow Wuhan Virus spread. Unintended positive consequences.
I have been amazed at how many just don’t seem to understand key aspects of this situation.
How does President Trump explain that we are not in disaster because he is avoiding disaster v. there was not a disaster to avoid? Does the lack of disaster prove there was never a threat or that he and his admin have been very successful at navigating the potential pitfalls of this “invisible enemy”?
Ed, a query, do you really think China shut down their Wuhan, a city if 15 million at the time, over a few hundred flu like cases? Or their nation over three thousand dead?
Good news:
https://www.doherty.edu.au/news-events/news/covid-19-the-immune-system-can-fight-back
Click to access s41591-020-0819-2.pdf
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-04/mu-pcd040320.php
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220302011
Useful comparisons:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/coronavirus-cases-data-reveals-how-covid-19-spreads-in-australia/12060704
Sweden data. They don’t look very good. If you recall the minute physics video I placed several days back, everyone follows the same path even with intervention. Without it, IMHO, would simply accelerate it down the same path for a longer period.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
@EM, that video was interesting, but yet vague on intubation statistics along with very small sample sizes. I have yet to see anyone interviewed or otherwise who recovered and was extubated. I have heard and read of 5 cases of recovery from such a state, but that was done by using antibodies as part of the treatment regiment.
MP video once again from a week ago.
This might provide the prophylaxis when coupled with a zinc caplet;
for Leg cramps and the body pains of Rheumatoid Arthritis. Quinine is a part of this Homeopathic all natural formulation.
Em I love this blog. sorry that I have looked like a bot… so sorry. Mostly I lurk, I dont know why i have found it nescessrary to comment…. just ignore,,.My proton pump stuff is being consumed as well as the sink sulphide…keep well hey.
BTW the Quinine etc is an imuno suppresant used mainly off label for lupus etc.
thats why it would work stops the cyto storm. also upping our PH….Take your proton pump pills,,,cheap and nasty.
E.M.
Via vetting brother
Ivomectin is human approved for fillaria type infections etc.
If you are tempted to play with it his comment is that “a little goes a f-ing long way.
It isn’t good for collie type dogs either.
4.9 Anza Borrego 6:53
A little shaking here San Diego North County. and one brief sharp jolt.
Unusual. One after shock on the San Andreas Dalton Sea.
Probably bust a million cases by the time this post gets placed, but the closed case CFR clicked up to 21%
As EM alluded to, it takes some weeks to check a box, but the trends do provide some vision. I don’t like that one.
It is appearing through the data and MSN that most who are really challenged are not in the good range of the scale.
The CDC even put it up. Crickets from most out there.
https://www.cdc.gov/healthyweight/assessing/bmi/adult_bmi/english_bmi_calculator/bmi_calculator.html
Soros, his ilk, and minions see that Trump is polling well due to his performance in this crisis. They will spend any amount of money and do anything to bring down his popularity. We will see more and more trolls, not just here, but on just about any popular blog, web site, social media site, whatever. We need to fight them wherever they pop up.
@FundMe:
No worries. Now that I’ve seen Rush is pushing the “shutdown is doom” story, the sudden POP of comments with that theme makes sense as a natural event, not agenda driven. Very hard sometimes to spot trolls vs bots vs social influencer driven.
@Another Ian:
I’m becoming more enamored of that ivermectin cure angle
Shows it works on several viruses. Also, I’m familiar wifh it, used it on animals, read the PDR on it (and more). I also “self medicated” some years back with the drench. As a “deer sized animal” it was easy to compute the right dose :-) from the sheep bottle. IIRC it was about a capfull, or 15 ml. Once every week or two for 2 doses. (For wormer, the first purges the worms, then the followup dose is for any reinfection from eggs in the pasture)
It was one of the most simple to use and administer drugs I’ve ever used. One 8 oz. bottle lasted a couple of years. IIRC about 16 sheep worth… so a heck of a lot of rabbits :-)
IFF it works for Wuhan China virus, it would be about $2/ person to cure them. It is sold by the gallon to cattle ranchers, so huge quantities sloshing around, even in the 3rd world counties
Treatment would consist of pouring about 15 ml (of the strengh I’d bought) into the hand of the patient and having them rub it on their skin. I’ve done exactly that with zero negatives, so pretty low risk. IFF I get this bug, I think that is what I would do. (Hey, imagen you are out in farm country, worming the animals. Kids get worms sometimes too (being in the fields, shoveling poo, etc.). Town is 30 miles away. Drs expensive… easy to just slop on a sheep sized dose ;-) Doing a lot of animals, you eventually get some slopped on you anyway… and notice nothing bad happens.)
We need some farming community to test this….
From 11 Feb. ==> 13th US case diagnosed. We are way past that.
Say that it is 53 days to go from 13 to 265,450. What is the rate per day?
Roughly 1.206X per day. or 3.70 days per doubling.
E.M.Smith says:
3 April 2020 at 6:12 pm
@All:
There appears to be an organized effort to gin up resentment toward the lock down.
Not just commenters.
Pray for an Easter Miracle! Economists Project 20 Million Lost Jobs Unless Economy Is Open By Sunday April 12th
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/pray-easter-miracle-economists-project-20-million-lost-jobs-unless-economy-open-april-12th/
BREAKING: New York Data Confirms Once Again – 99% of Coronavirus Fatalities Have Pre-Existing Conditions – 94% of Fatalities Over Age 45! …Open The Economy!
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/breaking-new-york-data-confirms-99-coronavirus-fatalities-pre-existing-conditions-94-fatalities-age-45-open-economy/
ossqss says:
4 April 2020 at 2:53 am
BMI vs COVID
https://www.healio.com/primary-care/infectious-diseases/news/online/%7B74cc8b56-e5a5-47f1-9739-b898b86f57cf%7D/obesity-diabetes-and-covid-19-what-pcps-need-to-know
Covideo ?
Look at Who else has the story.
Anti-Parasite Drug Used Since 1980s May Help Stop Coronavirus, New Study Says
https://www.newsweek.com/anti-parasite-drug-used-since-1980s-may-help-stop-coronavirus-new-study-says-1496083
If you don’t already have some …. it may be hard to get.
Ivermectin is used as a drench by livestock farmers on sheep, goats, horses and cattle. here in Oz it is available as a drench from farm supplies stores in 4 liter containers. Used to kill intestinal parasites. So it is available in mass quantities wherever livestock farming is happening. Of course the strength of the dose needed to kill this Corona 19 parasite virus while also being safe for humans remains to be worked out.
“Are lockdowns working?”
Lord Monckton looks
Seems ivomectin is also used for head lice treatment.
And around this area of farm products and human treatment – they were using levamisole to treat vets with “untreatable bruco” IIRC
It is standard practice to do a worming drench on every grazing animal on a farm, once or twice a year. This eradicates the worms from a pasture for a while as you interupted their reproduction cycle, so that is 2 doses per treatment cycle, each dose one week apart.
In a place with a million sheep, that’s 2 million doses. That’s a lot of doses.
In places like Australia or New Zealand (with more sheep than people), there’s more on the shelf already than it would take to treat the whole country. Ditto places like Wyoming, Texas, and other cattle country. As Bill In Oz said, translating to Yankee units: they sell this stuff by the gallon in farm supply stores.
@E.M. & all anti & pro lockdown:
I well understand the lockdown and the cogent arguments against it. All along, I keep thinking that there should be a middle way, but it is too hard to determine what that middle way should be given the natural built-in incompetence of the huge government bureaucracies (CDC, FDA etc.) and the lack of an unbiased, inquiring free press that is instead deliberately misinforming or outright lying to the public in their effort to take down President Trump. The Democrats, all of them, *ahem* aren’t *cough* helping anything.
I’m self quarantining with the few exceptions where I had to go out to replace intentionally depleted supplies because we’d be away for 3 months in Florida. But I’ve done that with mask and gloves and early on, have been using quinine + zinc as a prophylaxis. I’ve no qualms about my socially isolated fishing.
I am at high risk of a bad outcome if I get the Wuhan flu. I’m smart enough and informed enough to protect myself, thanks to all here (and Larry, wherever he might be now).
We are coming to a point where enough preventives and possible cures are in the here and now. They need a bit of testing and the CYA-ing* CDC, FDA, etc. needs to get the hell out of the way. Our doctors are no dummies about these potential treatments and the difference between limited small trials and rigorous full on double-blind incremental trials which nail down dosage, efficacy, and safety. They are willing to give these new treatments a shot and patients are willing guinea pigs because the do nothing alternative has a known outcome, and it’s not good.
If it weren’t for the agenda-driven lying YSM, I think we are very close to the point where we can convince the at-risk population to shelter in place – really, really stay put – and the low risk population can go about their daily business convinced to use masks and gloves. If they do get the Chinese Flu, the ones hardest hit will very soon have treatments that should make for just an annoying case of the flu. The best cases of the rest already are known to get it with little or mild symptoms, which is the problem with this pandemic when there were no know preventives or treatments.
I’m for a ‘middle way’, very soon, perhaps by the end of the month at the latest.
But I’m not hopeful for “very soon” because of the reasons and actions of the players I touched on above.
We can’t unmake the decisions that have been made. We’re here in the muddled mess of various lockdowns right now, which have a lot of people scoffing or huddled in fear. Where we are today just ‘is’. The question is the path forward.
That’s where I come down on the U.S. response to the Wuhan Flu pandemic and what should be done.
.
.
.
*CYA-ing – First do nothing that you could be blamed for. Diddling and delaying and testing to death is defensible as “we want to make sure X is 100% safe” and there are so many people in the organization that there is always someone else to point the finger at.
Well, nothing is 100% risk free so get a clue that the perfect is the enemy of the good enough and get to ‘good enough’ ASAP.
@H.R.:
Spot on.
In prior decades & centuries the various M.D.s would try what might work (why it is called a medical PRACTICE…) and when someone found something, that would be shared around until something better was found. Like the history of hydrothermal treatment here:
Only after the rise of antibiotics and the thalidomide debacle did the FDA become more hindrance than help and the double blind study dominant. (It is hard to double blind putting folks in sweat boxes….)
Now we have a throwback disease putting us again in the world of no treatment, but a bureaucracy built for corporate pharmaceuticals. And it is killing the patient.
I agree: Turn the doctors lose to be doctors and practice their craft on the double quick.
Were I strapped down on my belly in the ICU in misery with a ventilator tube down my throat and 50:50 odds of dying with the upside being scarred lungs for life: I’d want my doctor to try the drench on me or dose me with chloroquine or do a megadose vit-C&D or ‘whatever’. Either I get better, or my death is not meaningless as I contribute to knowing what doesn’t work.
It is doing nothing for a year while you wait for a peer reviewed journal & FDA “approval” that is the stupid path. By then, all the dying is done.
What Happen to Pneumonia deaths???
HOW TO LIE WITH STATISTICS???
1/ As you sit home watching #COVID death counts spiral, please know the official @CDCgov guidance for coding COVID-related deaths is as follows: any death where the disease “caused or is *assumed* to have caused or *contributed to* death.” Confirmed lab tests are not required…
https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/1246159519358558212
Candice Owen says she is hearing from nurses and wants to hear from more.
WHY THE FAKE STATS??? FEDERAL MONEY!!!
From michaelh:
Project Veritas
Cuomo positioning for stimulus money?
Not as serious as being reported?
Misinfo and fake news?
Hospitals intentionally miscoding and reporting to CDC?
HCQ clinical trial only, spinning Trump as wrong?
No centralized control on testing efforts for commonality?
People told to go to ER for test but no testing available at ER?
ALL the above info gleaned from the other website. I thought it was important enough to share.
OH, and then there is Bill Gates and his vaccine with an ID chip…
DECEMBER 23, 2019 21st Century Wire
Bill Gates, MIT Develop New ‘Tattoo ID’ to Check For Vaccinations
MARCH 18, 2020 FORBES
Bill Gates Calls For National Tracking System For Coronavirus During Reddit AMA
Funny that…
And now the WHIP!
https://twitter.com/rooshv/status/1246263737436254210
The pneumonia deaths bring way down is interesting. In China many died of the Covid-19 caused pneumonia, which is a very specific pathology. Yet they were not counted as Covid-19 deaths until much later.
Those that match that pathology are legitimate to assign to Covid-19, as I recall it was 98 percent accurate. There are reports of many senior center deaths in Europe never assigned to Covid-19 that should be.
Despite far stronger defensive protocols instituted for Covid-19 then the flu, hospitals are quickly overrun, or is someone asserting that is fake as well?
As someone who has been there and done that, I can confirm that the links above referencing vital statistics is how it works in real life. Cause of death: cardiopulmonary arrest (or something like it) due to: sepsis, pneumonia (remember that’s just body fluid in the lungs as opposed to aspirating water into them), hyper/hypokalemia, hyper/hyponatremia … and a whole lot more.
We do not rigorously test for cause of deaths and haven’t, for years. Even autopsies miss stuff. It is *all* a best guess, informed to a degree; but still a guess. Will there be some deliberate miscoding? Sure, but that carries a very high price (jail!) after the fact, if the politicos want to scalp political enemies. Heck, political pressures already (cough, BMI, cough) affect things. Medicine is run by people and people are political animals subject to manias and panics just like the rest of humanity.
Oh, that reminds me, locally we are reporting deaths with and deaths from. Deaths from lag somewhat as that has to be confirmed. Cases are tracking testing. About 12% of the tests return positive. Deaths lag, but raw is about 2%, to date, *from* this coronavirus; and akin to a really bad flu year. Fast turnaround serological tests would be very helpful.
I keep thinking about and mulling over how much of our country is still open for business and still working that was listed in a post above, with additions and modifications to make it a list as I am going to use this elsewhere. That was really an eye opening post for me. This is how I have thought about what was shared:
Whether the country went into a partial shut down or waited for a forced shutdown due to illness…either way the country was going to shut down! We have had an intentional shut down that is working – the percentage of new cases is decreasing.
Think – if we had not moved into mitigation mode, if the country was not on partial shut down (with this much open, we are Not on a total shutdown!), how many of the below sectors would now be impacted or would be impacted in the next several weeks due to large percentage of their work force becoming ill?
We would have had a shut down due to widespread illness and, the worst part, it would have impacted All sectors of the economy. As I look at the below list, I shudder to think of these sectors having 20-60% of their workforce out of work because they or their spouse or their children or their dependent parents are ill with WuFlu! If a spouse is very ill at home or in the hospital, or a parent or a child, often employees take off to care of the family member. Plus, with this virus, if someone has it at home, everyone is quarantined. It is Highly contagious/spread quickly and we would have had a terrible impact to society quickly.
A controlled, measured “shut down” of any/all places where people congregate & of non essential sectors of the economy is MUCH better than an uncontrolled shut down of all of the economy brought to us by illness.
Currently open and functioning sectors of the economy (our society MUST slow the spread to keep the functioning!):
-Military and Military support
-ICE, CBP, police, fire departments, EMS
-the rest of the Fed Gov and most of the state, county and city gov
-Schools, though physically closed have online classes and parents doing drive by packet pickup, so still operating, just differently (depending on state/county/city)
-Medical, including medical suppliers, medical manufacturing, healthcare providers & all of their support (although this industry is taking a huge hit as electives are canceled and reimbursement for non insured covid 19 patients is low – some layoffs, many pay cuts on non clinical side even while hours expand)
-Drug stores
-Utilities: Water, gas, electricity, garbage, sewer, Cell phone
-Internet providers (would be a Game Changer if internet went down!)
-Groceries stores of all sorts – chain, independent, “box” stores & online (we order food from Azure, Misfits, venues on amazon such as US sunflower seeds, US protein powder, etc., and a number of other online businesses)
-manufacturing of food products, household supplies, medical supplies, military supplies and most other sectors of manufacturing
-supply chains – truckers! post office, fed ex, UPS, etc.; cargo flights, trains, warehouse and distribution of all sorts
-Gas stations, car repair, tire stores.
-Fast Food / takeout as well as other restaurants converting to take out (necessary as our country’s food supply chain is structured in dual treats of B2B & direct to consumer)
– the farmers are still farming as food is still in the stores
-Hardware & garden stores as well as seed order businesses (spoke with my seed suppliers and they are Overwhelmed with increase from existing customers as well as new customers)
-lawn and yard maintenance
-Financial, including banks and insurance.
-Animal care (pet food and vets)
Plus:
-Retailers and service providers, depending on state and innovation of business owner
(ex: Bicycle shop repair; private tutoring and music lessons happening via FaceTime and paid by pay pal; martial arts classes happening via youtube, FaceTime and other platforms)
-real estate in some areas, vary somewhat depending on state
-Some construction / maintenance crews (working at private homes and some at schools & parks fencing off play areas, renovations, building projects cont. visible from highway on my state as of Wednesday)
-The I.T. guys and Telcos are obviously working to keep the rest going in tech specific companies and tech/IT/Informatics departments of all other businesses
-Media is still working, national, regional and local although some from home/modified and new productions are limited
Think of all of the above loosing their workforce to illness of workers &/or their family in a 2-6 week time frame! Our country would have staggered to an unplanned stand still of NEEDED services. Disaster!
This does not even begin to think about the impact of unchecked spread on our healthcare system as it would have been overwhelmed with incoming patients due to high complications rate of WuFlu…Nightmare!
Partial shut down of non essential services and esp. of public gatherings has prevented a true, involuntary shutting down of all of our economy and Needed services due to actual illness rates.
Trust Trump.
Looks like a thousand dead a day is now the USA Normal:
Adding 32k cases a day is pretty darned fast growth.
So, our prior doubling time was 4 days. We’ll know in a few days how much the lockdown is working. 1/2 million about April 7, one million April 11,and 2 million April 15.
Deaths ought to be 2000 / day, then 4000 / day, then 8000 per day on April 15th.
Departure lower from those numbers will indicate that sequestration works.
total new cases are just as important as the death rate as we are trying to prevent the fast rate spread that would case high, sudden hospitalization rates, right? Prevent overall deaths, yes, but also slowing the new infection rate to a rate that the hospitals can properly handle is a part of the goal, isn’t it?
New case rate has been slowing consistently even while the # of cases grow.
Also, a slow down in the death rate will take time to catch up to the slow down in the growth rate of new cases as there is a lag time between death/recovering and new case confirmations, right?
CDC reported % of increase of newly confirmed case totals have fallen &/or stayed level every day but 2 since 3/22:
3/22 36%
3/23 32%
3/24 23%
3/25 23%
3/26 26%
3/27 23%
3/28 20%
3/29 16%
3/30 15%
3/31 16%
4/1 14%
4/2 14%
4/3 13%
Stats from CDC via: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States
according to worldometers the US has (as of right now) 279,500 cases of which only 20,186 are “resolved”/ended by recovery or death and that current ratio is 7,457 deaths/12,729 recoveries.
(Of course, the “recoveries” represent only those cases confirmed via testing, most being the worst cases, esp. during the early weeks. The ratio does not include all who recovered and were not tested, i.e. the none symptomatic – mild cases. More had the illness and more have recovered than are recording making the ratio of deaths/recovered Much more encouraging!)
How much lag time between decreases growth rate of confirmed cases and confirmed deaths? Isn’t confirmed cases the way to more quickly judge if the “mitigation” is working?
Another example of lag time in reporting v. real time/”live” #s:
CA is reporting # of hospitalized cases + # of suspected hospitalized cases awaiting on test confirmation
Hospitals will have more cases than confirmed cases at any given time as they wait for test confirmations. Hospital beds are more occupied with Wuhan Virus than the # of confirmed cases would indicate.
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OPA/Pages/NR20-042.aspx
From the link, CA as of 4/2:
confirmed cases – 2,188 hospitalizations/901 ICU
suspected cases waiting on test results – 3,417 hospitalizations/584 ICU
NC was reporting # of empty hospital beds across the state in their earlier daily reports but that has recently stopped. That might have been helpful to do national wide or state wide for those who don’t “get” some of the issues facing our leadership and healthcare systems with this virus.
@Gail re the pneumonia deaths chart.
That is weird! Maybe it’s because they are attributing some of the deaths to WuFlu instead of putting it in the pneumonia column.
I dunno, but there’s a pretty stark departure from the usual being shown on that chart.
Wait, what? Is this real?
https://mobile.twitter.com/chuckwoolery/status/1246276769562406912
@Ossqss:
Watched the video. He just says, paraphrased, ~”Given my 32 years of experience, we get a surprise outbreak of something every few years, and the next President will be surprised by that too, just like all the others”.
He was giving a talk about preparedness. I’ve said very similar things sbout hackers, data loss, need for spares and redundant ISPs, etc. It is a constant PITA trying to educate Upper Management that they need to spend money now on something that is not real in the present . Their POV is it comes out of their quarterly bonus, and it likely will not happen anyway. The counter to that is, like Fausti said, we know it will happen; we just don’t know the specifics.
Per the pneumonia deaths:
Looks to me like, as the Wuhan Virus news hit, people increasingly stayed in and avoided risks and exposures. You don’t get much pneumonia watching TV in a warm house alone.
It doesn’t take everyone doing it to start shifting the numbers. So, for example, I was starting to change my exposure profile in January. Did not go to Chicago in winter to see the new granddaughter.
@Grateful Reader:
Yes, new cases are the goal metric. But they are compromised by testing changes. I’m interested in deaths lagged by a few weeks as they depend only on actual infections and level of medical care available.
Note that Spanish and Italian deaths / day are dropping. France still rising. Pretty much in sync with degree and timing of lock downs.
True about pneumonia, as I heard regular flu has fallen very sharply as well, and regular flu can easily lead to pneumonia in the elderly
Grateful Reader; good add on post on the still working and organized shutdown verses forced shut downs, panic and essential services disarray.
Regarding the Gateway Pundit article about that Experts cometary on upcoming pandemics. I agree with EM here. GP is to conservatism as Zero Hedge is to economics, some good stuff, but tainted by click bait emotional grasping.
One thought on the WM statistics; they have added a total tests column.
Some very odd stats, like nations with 500 tests and 500 cases. My concern is that as bad as the testing is in first world nations, it may be far worse in third world nations. Like wise with cases and overwhelmed medical systems.
E.M. Smith posted: “Yes, new cases are the goal metric. But they are compromised by testing changes” … that makes sense. Thanks for helping me understand.
The next million tests will be to different standards than the first million as they will include more people who have milder symptoms and those who are being tested proactively such as healthcare workers, for example. The more people who are tested, the wide the net is thrown the fewer hospitalizations, complications and deaths we will see per million because milder and non symptomatic cases are being tested and confirmed than originally. I think that is right…??
Our current ratio of deaths/recoveries will certainly begin to skew more towards recoveries as we test more people than the original testing of mostly worst case patients.
Our Er’s are begging people to come in. (UK) Using the fear that we are worsening our pre existing maladies. You win some you lose some hey. We have become the slaves of the medics. If not for us you die. I would have DO NOT recuscitate tatoo’d on my chest if I could fiind a tatoo parlour open.
So much new information to digest!
This post from a chemist explains the use of masks. He relates his experience with very serious hazards, and gives the best explanation so far of the official policy.
Those are the best practices, but sometimes “perfect is the enemy of the good”.
Most of us are at relatively low risk. The number of cases walking around is still small relative to the population. (Hospitals and care homes are another matter). Therefore, many of the problems of mask use will not really matter, but the big advantage remains: you protect others by wearing some sort of face shield in case you are infected and don’t know it.
We can see that mask wearing cultures are doing better than us. Obviously, the mask is part of the reason, but maybe not in the way we think. Maybe those cultures do not shake hands so much, give so many hugs, or greet by kissing cheeks. Maybe those cultures are used to wearing masks, and therefore used to not touching their faces and noses constantly. Even if we wore masks, we might not be as good at it.
One recent item said that the mucus lining of the nose is THE principal infection point, not breathing it into the lungs. If true, that would give a whole lot more weight to transmission by handshaking and nose touching.
The same website also has a posting on how to use gloves properly and how using them improperly makes it worse than no gloves.
Food for thought.
Actualy that should read DO NOT VENTILATE. Your chances of life are less than 50/50 if you need to be ventilated. Suck it up take the bullet. Most people who die from the whuflu are within the last 6 months of life anyway. Live with it or without. There are many people in England that wont go to the hospital. Rather die at home than have a pipe rammed down their throat. These are the facts.
Also your life post ventilation will suck. Why are we so afraid,I dont want to live with half of my lung function. If I were twenty sure I could hope for a better outcome. However people post 65 ‘will not no matter what’ have a good outcome, why are we ruining the lives of people who have a life time to look forward to, for the sake of people who have 6 months to look forward to. I am just trying to make sense of our collective actions.
@Fundme:
If you are perfectly healthy and go on a ventilator, your odds of dying go up every day until eventually you will die just from the process.
You have NO EVIDENCE that those who die are in their last 6 months. Many were in fine health prior. NYPD has lost several officers who were on active duty. Many doctors and nurses too.
All there is is an age slope to the percentages. The rest could just be statistical accident. Or drug / disease interactions. Folks with, for example, well controlled blood pressure, could have many years left, but if the drug they take enhances virus entry, those years are stolen. Similarly, ibuprofen to get rid of minor pain, it looks to increase severity and deaths. Those folks were not at risk of dying from joint pain.
Encouraging gratuitous deaths does not become you.
FundMe says:
4 April 2020 at 8:22 pm
“I would have DO NOT recuscitate tatoo’d on my chest if I could fiind a tatoo parlour open.”
Here’s a way to make carbon black. After you have that, you can use any prickly object like a sewing needle, or whatever. Man up and just do it!!!
?????
“Ground Reports – Healthcare Focus – What’s Going On In Your City, Town, Neighborhood?…”
“There’s something really odd, a profound disconnect of sorts, between what the media is sharing and the reality of what the general public is reporting from their own experience.”
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/04/04/ground-reports-healthcare-focus-whats-going-on-in-your-city-town-neighborhood/
@Another Ian:
It is pretty simple, really:
The USA is 2800 miles wide and about 1000 high. Plus Alaska, Hawaii & various territories. It has 50 States, all different, and some have dramatically different regions. Some are bigger than many countries (and a couple bigger than most countries).
To expect it to be uniform is daft.
So take just California. Some counties have no cases. A few have one or two, well isolated. Los Angles has exponential growth of thousands “in the wild”. My county has a bit over 1000 with modest growth. We could resolve uneventfully, or exponentially explode next week, depending on what people did in the past two weeks.
Where you look determines what you see.
The whole State is under a “shelter in place” order. That is silly in Alpine county, with a population of 1175 and a Capitol city of 210
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markleeville,_California
Where everybody lives “sheltered in place” unless they leave the county. Yet it is minimally isolating in L.A. and San Francisco with some high rise apartments and offices. How do you “socially distance” in an elevator or train?
NYC is incredibly densely populated. Upstate New York has cows.
All of it was told to prepare, but only some of it is in the soup.
A rapid test has been developed in China and is now available in Australia.
https://smallcaps.com.au/cellmid-set-to-commercialise-rapid-diagnostic-test-covid-19/
https://cellmid.com.au/coronavirus-rapid-test-sars-cov-2-rapid-antibody-detection-kit/
Origin and uses of Invermectin:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3043740/
It may be that the virus needs to be killed in the early stages of infection. Given the time involved in testing I reckon one needs to self diagnose.
The admin admitted in today’s news conference that the models don’t take into consideration any of the actions being taken. Where have we heard about excuses for modeling not being accurate, but yet making policy decisions.Perhaps they will just adjust the data for this scenario too?
@AI, that ground report certainly parallels what we are seeing here. It does appear that stackem and packem living is playing a significant role in transmission in urban areas.
@erl, that would be welcome news to add to that of which has been conveyed from other vectors of treatment, but yet dispersed.
If the research article on Ivermectin is true, then we can stop worrying about Corona 19 virus in tropical countries where it is used for a range of endemic parasitic diseases ( for eg. River Blindness in Africa )
One less thing to worry about !
Ground reports/media reports:
a) of course they will focus on worse case situations as that sells
b) many are broadcasting from NYC so their own perceptions is skewed and bias
E M : Just want to say a big “Thanks” for the posts here by you and couple of others about this vile bit of RNA chemistry. Your posts are informed by the science & simple straight forward logical thinking. Yes there are a few ‘Let It Rip’ folk infecting your blog but far less than on Joe Nova’s.
That’s not a criticism of Jo Nova. Her posts have also been great. But it’s PITA screening out all the idiotic COVID 19 Deniers’.
My understanding is the Covid-19 models were basically based on flu models with reasonable modifications and business as usual scenarios. Their logical purpose was to evaluate how to respond. I really do not understand the criticism that they are not happening, as that is exactly what mitigation is designed to do, change the outcome.
wondering about the effect of virus deaths on the overall death rate. At 1,000 per day, that ought to show, as I believe the average is in the range of 45,000 per week, varying by season, winter higher A couple weeks age the graph was unusually low for that week, now I can’t find the graph. Any thoughts?
Some have questioned whether there are two different viruses because of the differences in severity of the disease. A recent WUWT post reports on a German study. It does not say this, this is just speculation based on what they did say: What if there were cases where the infection was mostly in the throat and were mild, and there were other cases which infected the lungs and were serious?
“all COVID-19 patients showed a high rate of viral replication and shedding in the throat during the first week of symptoms. Sputum samples also showed high levels of viral RNA (genetic information). Infectious viral particles were isolated from both pharyngeal (throat) swabs and sputum samples. “This means that the novel coronavirus does not have to travel to the lungs to replicate. It can replicate while still in the throat, which means it is very easy to transmit”
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-04/c-ub-cvf040320.php
Ok, I just tested the mask implementation in a social distance qualified environment.
Houston, we have a problem!
How do you drink a beverage of choice through a mask?
I see an immediate business opportunity here :-)
Y’all need to step up dangint.
Just sayin…..
RE ossqss says:
5 April 2020 at 3:25 am
You want them to un-ban plastic straws too?
@AI, yeppers. How did those reusable shopping bags end up now days perception wise once we got past the ideological desires?
Personally, I don’t use straws, never do unless necessary, but my critters do. Rest of the comment redacted due to community standards policies. :-)
I should note, beer helmet tubing is not considered a straw. It is part of a personal consumption system device. Totally different, if you will.
You folks over-reacted to “Canadian Friend”. I seldom disagree with our revered host but our healthcare system is not going to be overwhelmed by COVID-19 even with its scary exponential growth.
THE EURO MOMO PROJECT
The EU records “Excess Mortality”: https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html
One of the things they track is seasonal ‘flu and their latest statistics include COVID-19. Take a look at this plot from Dr. Roy Spencer’s blog:
Notice that even when COVID-19 is included ‘flu deaths are much lower this year than in the preceding three years and given that spring is arriving the death rate is falling. This means that the need for hospital beds is falling in the EU so they don’t need to panic about hospital capacity.
It seems likely that the situation in the USA is not much different. The idea that our entire healthcare system will collapse owing to COVID-19 is daft. We will need to shift resources to “Hot Spots” like New York but in most of the country there will be increasing numbers of empty hospital beds as the weather improves.
Live long and prosper,
A happy note:
Digging in my Bunny Box, I found my bottle of ivermectin, with just enough left in it to treat 2 people. I don’t intend to use it, but nice to know it is there as a last resort if social isolation fails. My treatment of choice remaining gin and tonic and gin , of course :-)
@Ossqss:
Since brass / copper inactivates viruses, as does alcohol, I propose an internally alcohol purified brass tubing drink delivery device (“not a straw”). Any consumption of water to be preceeded and followed by a “cleansing alcohol wash” volume… tonic optional.
@Fundme, you said:
“There are many people in England that wont go to the hospital. Rather die at home than have a pipe rammed down their throat. These are the facts.”
I resemble that! It seems you are another Brit which may explain why we think alike. Given that I am 82 years old with a bunch of health issues my chances are not good but I do have a plan that seems in tune with your ideas.
I am following government guidelines by staying at home as much as possible. When I need to buy something I don’t wear a face mask but I do respect “Social distancing”. If infected I will wear a mask to protect my family and I will refuse to be hospitalized. This will reduce the load on our healthcare system but my motives are not lofty.
Hospitals are dangerous places and I fancy that my odds will be better at home taking hydroxychloroquine while rejecting “Ventilation”. Given that I have ample supplies of 12 year old Glenfiddich I will be really comfortable at home!
@G.C.:
Nice to see you are still around! The short silence had me wondering…
I do hope I end up wrong.
But it all depend on how long we ride the exponential curve. We will have huge excess hospital capacity right up to the last doubling. Then we will have just over 1/2 enough…
At current doubling rates, it is between 3 and 6 days to go from “way over capacity” to “AwShit”. Rather like we saw / are seeing in Italy, Spain, and soon France, Germany.
So it will be empty, empty, empty, some, some, filling, tight, Oh My God!!!
And our goal is to stop the spread before “tight”… which is where we are in New York…
@G.C.:
Ample supplies, you say?….
Will trade ivermectin for Scotch!
;-)
Has Scotch on its own been tested for anti virus properties?
Though I once came upon the results of a send-off party that had ended with mug sized exotic mixtures like Tia- buies, dram-dictines, bene-marias etc. Did not look like that cured very much.
It appears obvious to me that if, other then New York, our hospitals are not overwhelmed, that it is due to the defensive protocols.
It is like a man ducking a punch, as the punch goes past without harm, he does not lament, ” I should not have ducked”.
The very reason flu hospitalizations and resultant deaths are down is due to the defensive protocols. ( Hey, guess what, they work against all viruses)
Even with these defensive protocols enacted, not all blows are completely ducked or blocked, Spain, Italy, China despite their lies, New York, and lot of areas pushed right to capacity.
@David A:
North Italy is past capacity. They now have an age cutoff for ICU, gurnies are in hallways to treat patients, and much more. Spain is on track for that too.
@FundMe:
You work from facts not in evidence.
1) There are no “collective actions”. There are just individual actions. Distributed decisions.
2) The outcome for ANY patient is not pre determined. Some old folks do fine, some young and formerly healthy die.
3) I, and many others, do nothing from fear. You assume emotion where there is none. At most, I have mild resentment for the stupidity of damage from disease. It “just is”, so emoting at it, or about it, is just wasted effort. Dig in and look for ways to stop it, sure. Try to avoid it, of course. Reduce the damage is smart. Not avoiding is stupid.
So you will never understand a “collective action” that isn’t, for an assumed motivation that isn’t, to a predetermined result, that isn’t.
Oh, and it takes nothing from someone else. At the time ICU is full, then someone else will make the triage decision. You are not the decider.
So in summary:
If significantly ill, I’ll go to hospital a little peeved my protective plan failed. Check in and hope for the best outcome from an unknown future. Then the doctors will decide my treatment plan, and any triage needed. That’s it.
There is no reason to be stupidly suicidal in advance. Make no fear nor worry before its time and with “facts not in evidence”.
Well, this isn’t good. California and several others States all adding over a 1000 a day even after distancing and all. New York adding “5 figures” a day. In one day, more cases than all the expedient hospitals built. Next week, 6 figures a day…
Looks like it is Boom Time as the exponential goes vertical.
I only see two possibles here. Lots of testing is telling us we are really screwed, but the social distancing is working… only too late. Or. Social distancing is not working, and we are really screwed.
gallopingcamel says: 5 April 2020 at 4:41 am
Sorry, what is wrong with Dr Spencer’s study is the same as all the others.
It is a snapshot of where we were, not where we are now.
They show march 18-24.
Just look at the graphs for any country on worldometers and see where they on the 24 and where they are now.
A couple of examples.
USA 24th 780 now 8542
Italy 24th 6820 now 15362 while lockdown is in place
Spain 24th 2991 now 11947 while lockdown is in place
France 24th 1100 now 7560 while lockdown is in place
UK 24th 422 now 4313 while lockdown is in place
See what I mean for just those countries went from a total of 12113 to 47724 in just 11 days with controls in place.
ps the same applied to Mr Eschenbach’s at WUWT and Nic Lewis’s Diamond Princess evaluation
E.M.Smith says: 5 April 2020 at 1:05 pm
The problem is that like other countries the US is only playing at it, letting people fly all over the place.
NEWS ! The WHO says “Wear Face Masks ” Maybe they will sack Tedros next for incompetence !
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3078437/mask-or-not-mask-who-makes-u-turn-while-us
Improvised masks… (She is using hair elastics) Now just add a coffee filter in the middle.
Some of the rest of the masks in the thread are amusing.
>>>>>>>>>>>
Ivermectin — We have injectable for cattle in the frig. (Used for goats)
Ivermectin Dosage guidlines [for humans]
Both anti-malarials and Ivermectin would be used in Africa. So far the death rate is VERY LOW.
https://twitter.com/RichHiggins_DC/status/1246233465160433664
I will add that President Trump is now pushing the French Doctor’s recommendation of Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a treatment of COVID-19: results of an open-label non-randomized clinical trial He said last night he prefers people trying the HCQ/Zpack instead of relying on ventilators.
Fauci is as, usual countering with anything BUT. (He is a BIG fan of Hillary Clinton and Bill Gates) The French doctor is #1 in the world in epidemiology Fauci is in the 30s (#38?)
A trial of patients in NYC of 1000+ was started over a week ago so President Trump would know the results by now.
She was called on the number stated above:
Recently I received some flack for this:
“The Russians are doing really well owing to the fact that водка (aka Vodka) is effective against COVID-19. Even if you die you feel much better than people who failed to imbibe.”
It seems you can’t make jokes without offending someone. Even so my plan to keep plenty of single malt at hand is not intended as a joke.
Chiefio and A C Osborn are rightly impressed by the exponential growth rate in cases in the early stages of pandemics. The most important issue is how long a country stays on the exponential curve. On April 12, 2009 there were 2 cases of H1N1 “Swine ‘flu” in the USA but the exponential phase lasted 15 more weeks at an average multiplier of 2.5853 per week. By week 16 (August 2) there were 3,052,768 cases.
During the 2009 pandemic there were no travel bans or “social distancing” recommendations. Sporting events were not affected and restaurants remained open.
COVID-19 is clearly more contagious than H1N1 since it is growing even more rapidly than H1N1 in spite of the drastic measures taken:
The first two cases were in week ending Friday, January 24 (aka “Week 1”). By Friday, April 3 (Week 11) there were 276,965 cases. The average multiplier is therefore 3.2669 for 10 weeks. One more week on the exponential curve means 905,000 cases while two more weeks implies 2,956,000 cases.
Dr. Birx says that the cases will peak around April 15 (Week 13). If exponential growth continues for 15 weeks (as in the 2009 pandemic) there could be 103 million cases and you can bet that would overwhelm our healthcare system.
I think Dr. Birx has it right. China fell off the exponential curve in their “Week 13”. Italy will fall off the curve this week (their “Week 11”). South Korea fell off in their “Week 7” and what they did to achieve that deserves careful study. I have watched the Kim Woo-Ju video that appears on an earlier thread several times.
My overall view is that all information coming in should keep one purpose in mind: getting those regions of the U.S. with “good control” back to work and back to normal medical procedures by May 1.
Sundance at TheConservativeTreehouse put up a post asking for current conditions around the U.S. and contributors came up with one big conclusion. Way too many hospitals, medical offices, and clinics are longing, pining for their patients and clients and are having to layoff or furlough doctors and nurses. Unacceptable. They must function again very soon again.
Basic assumptions: 1) This new virus has extreme infectvity; 2) Few are harmed by the illness in younger age groups, but the numbers of older folk and those with “co-morbidities” (please note, probably the majority of “old folk”) are seriously impacted by the illness from death to permanent organ damage. This is unacceptable and what the current conditions are attempting to ameliorate. 3) Now, with President Trump and his Task Force’s efforts, this emergency is being handled during the month of April. 4) Separate out the treatment for CoVid-19 from all other procedures. It looks like we have the national capacity to do so. Those who want to move away from the urban infestations should be able to do so, with agreement to self-quarantine for 14 days (or appropriate time).
Going forward: 1) Everyone will have to accept more risk. If as we move about more normally, AND with our new-found ability to be more healthy, and become infected, we must have access to the proven medicine for cure – hdroxycholorquine + zinc + if needed, azithromycin; 2) President Trump and his Task Force must demand that adequate quantities are manufactured in the U.S and every region of the county have access to it and individuals may purchase it (ok if by prescription) for peace of mind.
Additional assistance: 1) Antibody tests which might give peace of mind if, and a big if, recovery from an infection with normal antibodies formed against reinfection actually prevent a recurrence of the disease. I think we must test this outcome in practice. There is no time for the years of double-blind research. 2) This test must be available to anyone who wants one. That means manufacturing in the U.S. lots of tests.
Titrating back-to-work. 1) The younger first in person-to-person businesses. 2) What has worked by internet, e.g., tele-medicine (I have engaged in this both as doctor and as patient), can continue. 3) U.S. national security must demand that the U.S. develop a product with the capabilities of Zoom (Chinese owned, as I understand it) for new U.S.-developed businesses. The imagination and creativity of American entrepreneurship is extraordinary.
GC, it is a pity our health officials haven’t watched it several times as well, he really lays it out for everybody.
But then he is their top man and worked through SARS and lead them for MERS, so he really is an expert on epidemics.
Seeing that this disaster has been fueled by the WHO in the incompetence of it’s head Dr Tedros.
It begs the question “Who Is Dr Tedros?”
A hard hitting video spills the beans …
[With thanks to Paul Homewood at https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/04/05/who-is-dr-tedros/ ]
Still tracking consistantly as of yesterday assuming good data.
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/
G.C. says, “think Dr. Birx has it right. China fell off the exponential curve in their “Week 13”.”
While I appreciate the rest of your post, please disregard all of China official numbers. The Wuhan lockdown was Jan 23rd. Worldometer starts China on that day. Earliest China case is now mid November 2019, nine additional weeks of unrestricted growth in a city of about 15 million at the time. That is 250 k cases by Jan 23rd at only two doublings each week & 18 doublings.
It is quite certain that China did not close Wuhan over 600 flu like cases, of China over 2400 flu like deaths.
China deservedly has ZERO credibility.
Florida data.
They have this filtered down to zip codes now. Bottom tabs under the primary graphic then filter on the side.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience…db9b25e429
Seems wordpress tuncated the link. Sorry.
Interesting take on Germany, if the link doesn’t get truncated!
https://dnyuz.com/2020/04/04/a-german-exception-why-the-countrys-coronavirus-death-rate-is-low/
@tom0mason
This WuHuFlu operation is looking more and more like an act of war against the American Trump administration by the CCP to counter Trump’s economic war against them. The Chinese and their fellow travelers are using all of the levers available to them to cripple the American/Western world during this “crises”. They are also covering up their own disaster. Chinese military have bragged that even in an all out war they would prevail because they could withstand more damage then the Americans could. Once this epidemic became known to them they launched a massive coverup, Did everything they could to maximize it’s spread into the western world, Prevented the use of proven mitigation treatments. And attempted to gather up all safety equipment in the world into the control of their agents. Sometimes stuff just happens, but now it looks like far too many random things are beginning to look like parts of an organized operation….pg
p.g.sharrow ,
Yep, that is the way I see it too.
Too few people have thought about what all the elite misanthropes are actually trying to do, and why they say the things they say.
Hopefully Trump has got the message. Certainly European, (including the UK), Australian Canadian and most of the developed western world leaders appear complicit in ensuring a massive social/economic reset will take place. They seem to want a super bureaucratic One World Order.
Come the hungry winter and we’ll all know whats is likely to come.
Something interesting. Seems the ventilators are bad for you.
EM “ Deaths ought to be 2000 / day, then 4000 / day, then 8000 per day on April 15th.
Departure lower from those numbers will indicate that sequestration works.”
And if Sweden, without lockdown, continues to track the US rate, will it prove that Sequestration doesn’t work?
On an upbeat note, being forced into sequestration with so many of my hobbies being cancelled has me doing much more in my garden. At least Home Depot, Tractor Supply, and the nurseries are still open for business.
People in my area, Central California, seem to be getting real tired of the lockdown. I am out and about daily for something and traffic is steadily increasing. The numbers lining up to get into Home Depot are steadily increasing also. Same for the foot traffic in my neighborhood.
Ok, time to get back to work. Have more raised bed flower and vine boxes to build, plant, and run drip to.
Ossqss: “Interesting take on Germany”
Yes, and the link was good. Many good points in there; here is one.
“Medical staff, at particular risk of contracting and spreading the virus, are regularly tested. To streamline the procedure, some hospitals have started doing block tests, using the swabs of 10 employees, and following up with individual tests only if there is a positive result.”
When you are checking whether a symptomless group has a problem, check them all in one test!
Not positive, all are clear. That is a time saver. The group size can be optimized according to the likelihood. Too large a group, the odds of having at least one positive in it go up, so then you are no further ahead. Too small, more tests.
E.M.
Some SDA sleuthing and a “buyer beware”.
“This article is currently percolating across social media and may begin to gain traction in the coming days: Covid-19 had us all fooled, but now we might have finally found its secret. ”
“It would be useful if our readers in the medical field would chime in. ”
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/04/05/wuhan-flu-21/
Plus questions on ventilator use
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/04/05/wuhan-flu-21/
“Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste”
”
What the Media Isn’t Telling You About the United States’ Coronavirus Case Numbers – Be sure to examine the last graph, which has been updated to reflect the latest numbers from April 4th.
What the Media Didn’t Tell You About the Woman Who Gave Her Husband Fish Tank Cleaner”
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/04/05/never-let-a-good-crisis-go-to-waste/
Ed Forbes says: 5 April 2020 at 8:35 pm
You cannot compare Sweden and the USA, they have completely different population densities and there are almost as many people in NY 8.6M as the whole of Sweden 10.1M.
NY has almost 10 times the population of Stockholm.
From the link by Another Ian:
So, did fish tank cleaner lady off her spouse, whom she wanted to divorce? Does her history of donations to Democrats and mental instability matter?
Did fish tank cleaner lady off her spouse? Yes.
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/04/the_mysterious_case_of_the_people_who_ate_fish_tank_cleaner.html
@Ed Forbes:
No, it doesn’t.
Different: Populations, genetics, density, diet, medical histories, chemical exposure, drug use, …
So LOTS of confounders. Do they regularly get exposure to, as a hypothetical, ivermectin due to the greater woodsy exposure and animals? Does frequent sauna use boost immunity in them? Do they just live more isolated and don’t hug or shout or use elevators as much?
Basically, you can’t prove the negative. But you can observe the positive.
So something was CHANGED in the USA, then observing a result IN THE USA is informative.
Essentially, you are holding the other variables reasonably constant.
Put another way: Were I to shave your head, then observe that the dog did not get cold nor grab a hat, that does not let me conclude that shaving heads does not make them colder.
Ed Forbes: “On an upbeat note, being forced into sequestration with so many of my hobbies being cancelled has me doing much more in my garden. At least Home Depot, Tractor Supply, and the nurseries are still open for business.”
Ah, yes. Critical businesses remain open. Try one of the cattle panel arches. I did one last year and I think I’ll add another this year.
.
.
Hmmm… I need shoes. Early last Fall, I bought my usual 2 favorite pairs of Skechers @ the outlet mall, buy 1 get one 1/2 off, and they are slightly reduced from retail. I walk a lot and the second pair is just about done for. Aren’t shoes critical so people don’t ruin their feet?
Oh, wait… it’s the Government. They figure, “Who needs shoes when they’ll just get in the way of your toe tag? Close ’em down.”
;o)
The “German Exception“? Should we beneficiaries of Western Civilization really be surprised? Well, except surprise that Frau Kanzler Merkel didn’t indulge in the delays and obstruction of other globalist regimes [†]? It seems to me that during this CoV-19 pandemic, the reünified Germany is benefitting from its persistent national characteristics. Maybe we ought to be considering the peculiar exceptionalism of the German People?
Winston Churchill, when trying to draw U.K. attention to the Nazi reärmament in the 1930s, and the likelihood of an upcoming war with Germany, described the Germans as (something like) “the most ingenious and industrious people in Europe” [*].
Readers need to look no more recently than the peaceful German take-over of the lead for innovation & manufacturing in the world-wide chemical industry late in the 19th Century, notably for synthetic dyes & fertilizers. They’d elevated practical applied science, often called engineering, to a respectable academic endeavor, back when the U.K.’s “Oxbridge” institutions still treated engineering as unworthy to be a specialization for a proper college education [×].
I don’t recall Winston Churchill mentioning German precision, but probably only the Swiss could be counted as their equals [♢].
The recently deceased (Dec. 2019!) Ivy-League historian Steven Ozment’s sociologically focused book on the Germans as a people [♖], whom he credited with exceptional individual honesty and civic orderliness [†] (among other positive characteristics).
Maybe we United-Statesians are hindered by a conflict between our own persistent national characteristics. I’m thinking mostly of our independent spirit, e.g., New Yorkers flouting local stay-at-home decrees by fleeing to Florida. But also dismayed by the increasing influence of “feelings“, instead of facts or logic, in public behavior & policy.
——-
Note *: The Internet has been no help thus far in nailing down this quote; I suppose eventually, I’ll just have to apply my eyeballs to a search in my printed copy of Churchill’s The Gathering Storm.
Note ♢: The German Carl Zeiss founded (1846) what became the world’s largest manufacturer of cameras after W.W. I, and a premier manufacturer of scientific instruments, but it suffered from having its main facilities in Jena (Thuringia) and Dresden (Saxony) placed in East Germany after W.W. II. That enabled the Soviets to haul away their “factories and tooling” as reparations to Mother Russia. His best-known German competitor, founded (1869) by Ernst Leitz, was fortunate that his camera factory in Wetzlar (Rhenish Prussia, then Hesse) was within West Germany. Germany provided optical expertise to their W.W. II Axis ally Japan, and photographically inclined folks have seen what a difference has been made after W.W. II by the latter’s cheaper labor.
Note ×: No insult intended to E.M.’s U.K. participants: The point of view I expressed comes mostly (i.I.r.c.) from none other than James Burke, the British presenter of the excellent Connections t.v. series, which was later broadcast in the the U.S.A. by PBS.
Note ♖: Ozment 2005: A Mighty Fortress: A New History of the German People.
Note †: I wonder if the characteristic of civic orderliness might have strongly inclined the modern German People to repeatedly reëlect Frau Kanzler Merkel, despite her ruinous immigration policies; if so, that would exemplify its modern disdvantages. Oh! We really ought not to get bogged down by gratuitous digressions on the Nazis: They’re 3/4 century in the past, whereas Merkel’s arguably treasonous leadership continues in the present.
EM, put another way, ice cream causes crime. There is a direct and very high correlation between ice cream sales and the crime rate.
Makes about as much sense as your reply to me.
O’well, we obviously are at different and irreconcilable difference of opinion on this. You see facts supporting your view and I see the same facts supporting mine. Time will tell.
For those who are unfamiliar with the ice cream/ crime reference, both ice cream sales and crime rates both go up in summer heat. It was one of the main examples in my statistics classes that correlation can not by itself imply causation.
Back to work now. Be safe out there
The reanalysis of this event will be very revealing in the end.
After basically 3 weeks of this quarantine event, having teenagers, and trying to keep everyone sane, I too choose B :-)
Ed Forbes, in addition to the other comments, all of Sweden’s testing is very poor, going in to the 3rd day and still stuck at 36,900. They have changed said methodology 3 times. Look at their daily confirmed, turns very erratic. Now Sweden is only testing positive cases in the high risk category. So, someone not considered high risk, can get Covid-19, and die from Covid-19, and it would not count. Also they are doing far more defensive protocols then nothing, just not as extreme as most.
Israel has done almost 3 times the tests, and their population is 10 percent smaller.
As to ice creme sales and crime rate, that is a very poor analogy with zero cogency to EM statements. ( A nice way of avoiding addressing those comments however.) Clearly there is a causative correlation between social contacts and disease contagion. To debate against that as you have is highly illogical.
I already showed you Sweden’s death rate was considerably higher the the US. You never acknowledged that.
Bill In Oz
Ivermectin for humans is already available for treating parasites in humans.
https://www.drugs.com/dosage/ivermectin.html
I have the injectable in my frig for my goats and sheep.
https://www.westernjournal.com/chinese-building-co-ordered-intl-offices-hoard-med-supplies-ship-back-china-whistleblower/
@Ed Forbes: My example was s LOGIC example. “Facts” are not relevant to seeing that a negative does not prove , but a positive does. Had I wished to argue the facts, I would have (again) pointed out that the time axis and lag time matter in comparing Sweden and the USA. There’s a roughly 3.5 to 4 week lag between starting a “shelter in place” and when results are seen. Comparing the two country graphs now fails as it ignores that. Only in the future can the change show up.
Basically, your LOGIC is faulty and you ignore timing issues. Oh, and your ice cream analogy is a non sequitur to my statements.
As a footnote: I have had training in formal symbolic logic at university, plus worked as a professionsl programmer with computer logic training since about 1978. I know logic.
So no, I don’t do “agree to disagree”. That is only for opinions. Never for facts, reasoning, and logic.
@Compugator:
Over 1/2 of the American population has German ancestry. Bit hard to make our Germans out to be genetically predisposed differently to their Germans.
so you are not sure if I am an anti-Trump troll…
wow… just wow…
I have been posting comments at smalldeadanimals for about 15 years, I understand no one has time to go trough 15 years of comments, but if someone did they would see I have always been andanti-left, anti-liberal man.
I was pro-Trump even in 2012 when there were rumors he might run, everyone said he was a clown, I said ; no if he runs he will probably win and become President. ( and I was right, as I am often about a lot of things….me pretentious? no I am just stating facts )
Here a couple days ago I posted a video of what was said in a white house briefing, I fail to see how that makes me anti-Trump. The people talking are in Trump’s team, they are not bashing him, neither am I.
The top experts on the planet said their predictions were way too pessimistic, it is in the video, I fail to see how I am being a troll or how any of this is anti-Trump.
and if I was a troll would I not spend more time here? I think I post comments here maybe 2 times a year…not a very efficient troll wouldn t you say? Soros is not getting his money worth with me! hahaha!
I am big fan of Trump. and I have mountains of evidence ; dozens or hundreds of pro-Trump and anti-Obama comments at smalldeadanimals.
I am so shocked that you might think I am anti-Trump and a troll ( paid by the left, or paid by China or paid by Soros or whatever you meant with that very bizarre comment linking me to the DNC)
I am trying to say this as politely as I can but you seem to have trouble understanding what is in the 4 minutes video even though it is very clear and very simple.; They revised their dooms day prediction…no one is saying Trump is a bad guy, they simply now realize the covid19 is not as deadly they thought it was…how does that make me an anti-Trump troll???
as politely as I can say it ; you seem to have a very distorted perception of reality ; it was not just my opinion, it was what the white house said, it was a FACT not an opinion !
The 4 minute video was solid evidence that what I said was true, but a couple of people here treated me like a retard, an “uneducated” retard that does not understand the seriousness of the covid situation…
well tell that to that Birx Lady…maybe she too is an uneducated retarded troll paid by Soros or by China ? because it is HER that said those things, it was not my opinion, it was simply FACTS as they are in the video.
I am glad that at least one of the commenters here was able to see I was not wrong, and he is right that you folks over reacted.
and the over reactions made me react.
if I had said the earth is flat or that Trump is an alien with a rubber mask… ok
but I had the video as proof, yet I was treated like a freak who was saying dumb things.
and now I am an anti-Trump troll…wow just wow
are you people drunk or high on something?
what the f*ck???
I have been pondering and calculating the living situation at hand. No I did not stay at an HI express last night.
One would ask,
How long does it take to get an economy back in sync when shut down for many months in may instances.
A business is like a life, so is the economy for those who actively and individually participate in it from the supply side. Those with a job, if you will.
That is a big ship to turn back around at some point.
Think about the supply chain reaction for restaurants, as just one simple example. If they don’t work, or the provider for the supplier, or their service company for the equipment that produced their product, or the farmer/rancher that provides the root ingredients, the Diner doesn’t work. JMHO
More evidence that you people can ignore,
the USA is not leading in number of cases per capita,
but I said it so it can not be true right ?
https://pjmedia.com/trending/what-the-media-isnt-telling-you-about-the-united-states-coronavirus-case-numbers/
@Canadian Friend:
Running a blog has its challenges. One of them is the very large number of players to remember. This is complicated by the fact that various agencies / persons can change names / or be sock puppets. Then sometimes Trolls will poach another person’s handle. Yes, I could build and maintain a database of IP addresses and VPN blocks and cross reference it all and…
But then I’d get nothing done.
So don’t read too much into it.
There was a sudden burst similar talking points. It didn’t make sense as a natural thing, but did fit the Talking Point Trolls pattern of a bunch of echo voices w/ same talking points. Then I found out Rush was pushing it, and it made sense. Millions of his audience seeding it out, others thinking it made sense passing it around. Then having it show up together is just organic trend.
So “my bad”.
But Troll Spotting is an error prone and sketchy thing. Is what it is.
I thought I’d made that clear above, but maybe too low key.
@Canadian Friend
I view every post that folks make here as an opportunity to learn. We have many perspectives for many reasons from all parts of the globe. Many of them from very different environments. Making sense of things, is a whole different story now days.
Bottom line, the root data trend tells us at a fundamental level where things are going. We all are following the same distribution/permeation paths no matter where or who you are. Everything else is just lipstick until the release of the prophylactics in mass to the populous.
You no longer are hidden when you eventually come out of quarantine to life again folks.
I better truncate myself :-)
Ivermectin on eBay:
http://vi.raptor.ebaydesc.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItemDescV4&item=254561566066&category=56976&pm=1&ds=0&t=1586141892243
Label says the 8 oz are for 20 100-lb doses. 8 oz is 240 mL. Assiming that is a 100lb critter, and a 100-lb dose is 12 mL, a 200lb critter dose might be 24 mL, and the container would provide 10 of them. if used the way EM recommended ( 2 doses, 1 week apart) would treat 5 critters, for 50 bucks, ‘ 10 bucks a head’.
To have fun with it, make a big batch of jello with it, and employ coeducational medicinal wrestling….
Canadian Friend, perhaps if your response is delayed it is best to link to your comment that precipitated said responses.
Canadian friend says, ” more evidence that you people can ignore…”
Gratuitous general insults are not helpful. The article you linked was fine, but not in the least controversial to anyone who has looked closely at the WM site. What makes you think ” us people” here ignore it?
The data that CF points to is not comparable as those countries with the worst case rates are also the countries furthest along on the curve.
What do these people not understand about Exponential curves?
It does seem to me that the Covid-19 story has a lot of questionable data involved. Jo Nova a while back pointed to the Brit in Wuhan who had an unidentified illness in November 2019 that appears to have been Covid-19. With the number of flights in and out of Wuhan between then and the shutdown, I’d expect it to have spread a lot further than thought. Chatting with my daughter it seems she probably got it in Edinburgh, UK, in February. She thought it was a bad ‘flu at the time, worse than any she’d experienced. At that time the WuFlu really wasn’t publicised.
Meantime, the WuFlu doesn’t seem to have spread to Beijing or Shanghei. If it’s that contagious (and it seems to be), then we should have seen a lot more of China go down with it. By the time the Wuhan (and Hubei province) shutdowns happened, the disease should have been well outside the boundaries and multiplying like crazy. In fact it should really have been worldwide by the time it was realised it was a new thing.
It seems to me that what’s killing people is the cytokine storm that destroys cells in the lungs and other organs, and that this is maybe dependent on genetics of the person or what other medications they are taking. The medications in fashion in a certain country may thus determine the death-rate there (and France does seem to prescribe pills for a lot of things where I’d think it wasn’t really necessary). Maybe also the medication given to reduce a fever is actually a bad strategy, and instead the fever should be allowed to reach over 40°C (when virus multiplication is inhibited) and only controlled so it doesn’t go too much above that. Once enough of the lungs are damaged that you need a ventilator, though, the odds on surviving being intubated drop dramatically, and seem to be around 50%.
There’s nevertheless a rush to improve the supply of ventilators. That seems a bit odd to me, when there’s enough data that shows that HCQ+Azithromycin+Zinc can reduce the viral load and thus avoid needing the ventilators. There’s also the data from M. Simon showing that Cannabindiol (and other things) can also reduce the chances of the cytokine storm happening.
On the BBC news last night, they showed a doctor stating that there is no cure for Covid-19 except not catching it and not spreading it. Seems a bit of misinformation when HCQ is showing positive results when applied early enough (before lung damage gets too bad). Also maybe Ivermectin when it’s given early on. Other methods have been tried, and have shown some success, though again I’d expect that applying them early is more helpful. Basically, if someone is ill enough to be in hospital, then they need a medication that stops the virus multiplying and thus stops them becoming more ill.
It seems to me that there’s a lot more people with the disease than the official figures show. Most people with it won’t go to hospital and won’t get counted. Whether you get it bad or not is a chance based on your circumstances (genetics, medications, comorbidities). The masks and social distancing will work (and that’s showing in the official figures) to stop new people catching it, but it’s expensive. Much cheaper if you let it rip and have a quick fix for those who get it bad enough to need hospital, as seems to be the case with HCQ or maybe Ivermectin. Since the hospital stays would only need a few days rather than weeks in ICU then the hospitals would not get overloaded.
Basically, the information we’re getting about this doesn’t make sense. Also seems that the strategy is based on bad information, and there could be a better strategy to reduce losses of both lives and money. Of course, I’m looking at this as an engineer rather than as a medical specialist, but it does seem odd that HCQ, which is used by millions as a prophylactic against Malaria anyway and seems to also work as prophylactic (and cure) against Covid-19, shouldn’t be produced and distributed to the majority of people and thus provide enough herd immunity to make the virus extinct wherever over 80% or so people are protected. This is a pretty cheap fix. While the official message is that there’s no medical cure except for making someone more comfortable while their body either wins or loses the battle against the virus, the lock-down remains the logical response, but if that initial assumption (that no medication works) is wrong (as it seems to be), then the lock-down is not necessary.
There are many so called professional medical people that are still using totally outdated Flu and early COVID19 data.
They can’t get it right about
Distancing (still talking about 1 metre)
Masks Working (not working)
Medicines that work
Persistence on surfaces and in the atmosphere
To many of them are not keeping up.
Gratuitous insults were thrown at me FIRST, I did not start it.
They pushed me, I pushed back.
I am simply giving them a taste of their own medicine.
The fact you blame me instead of those who insulted me, who started it, indicates that either you don t know what happened in this thread, or you have poor judgement.
You are accusing me – the victim of gratuitous insults – of throwing gratuitous insults.
that is insulting.
you are now part of ” them”
and about ignoring evidence,
since the focus was ALL on how supposedly silly and uneducated I am, or how supposedly I don t care that people are dying ( or something along those lines ) instead of what is in the White House 4 min video,
yes the evidence was ignored.
it was very much ignored as if it was a flat earth video.
and if those people ignored the evidence from top experts such as Birx, it is not “far fetched” to think they might ignore other evidence I might provide.
past behavior is a good predictor of future behavior.
You are probably talking about the PJMedia article
all they are saying is that the comparisons used by the media are dishonest, they are comparing numbers in a way that makes it look like the USA has more cases ( they do that to make Trump look bad ) , when in fact it has less cases per million people.
and that is how it must be calculated ; cases per million.
just like anything else is calculated, cancer, murder, car crashes, it is counted per 100,000 or per million people.
and when calculated per million people the USA is NOT the nation with the most cases of covid.
nowhere do they say the USA is at the same place along the curve
nowhere am I saying that either
nowhere are they denying the numbers may or will go up as they did in other nations
nowhere am I denying that either
again you made up something that is not there, and then are using it against me even though I never said it.
Simon is correct. Like Larry, but maybe not quite as involved on the front lines, I have been there. People are making decisions under uncertainty. They must. If you are dealing with an infectious disease and there isn’t a vaccine or other treatments, you either lockdown very early or you just let it go because the kind of lockdown needed can’t be done since it is too late. Either way, there will be benefits and losses. Humans are mortal and all will have their bodies die at some point.
(What is telling, to me, is that the pro-aborts still want their form of homicide to go on, undisturbed; whereas there would be much less stress on the medical system if they limited those to life of mother only, for now. Plus there are some 700,000 annual deaths in the US just from those, that don’t count in the statistics and more than 2 million deaths annually that do count.)
Thus, the prime strategy is mitigation. Limit exposures since there is a dose-response curve for infections just like there are for medicines and poisons. Masks, gloves, face shields and gowns for medical folk. For the rest, you still use masks and gloves, but these don’t have to be as impermeable as they will need to be for medical folk.
Try old and new pharmaceuticals. It will take longer for new ones to get through the system, yet these will be needed for folk who can’t take the old ones. There is nothing wrong about vaccines, either, as such. That folk will use them to advance inhuman agendas is wrong.
@Canadian Friend:
Cool your jets!
This is “on me” and I’ve said so twice and said “my bad” by way of apology. Did you just ignore that?
I SPECULATED about a Talking Point storm. Speculation is not accusation (though it is close).
Realize that any blog with a conservative bent or pro trump POV will be under various attacks frequently (I’ve dealt with several, and have the daily SPAM queue too). Then there are the Bot Farms and the Chinese and Russian organized disinformation operations, and more… Soros, his teams of minions and NGOs…) They also often use false names stealing other folks identities (especially spammers)
So I would hope that you can cut me a bit of slack after a decade plus of fighting against that stuff daily when I muffed one.
As I’ve already stated, twice, I figured out my mistake:
The profile I reacted to was multiples of the same POV / Talking Point pushing what looked to me like a false narrative that would damage the USA & indirectly Trump. This is seen DAILY in the MSM / YSM / “News” so is one of the most useful profiles. What was different this time was Rush Limbaugh pushing it. He usually isn’t that dodgy.
So I correctly spotted the event, but had the driving side / agency wrong.
Again: My Bad.
How many more time do you want me to repeat that?
@CDQuarles:
I very much agree. A doctor or nurse in consrsnt close contact with known highly infected people needs a very different level of protection than me at the grocery checkout. But for all of us it is above zero.
IMHO the CDC “guidance” of “don’t use protection” was malpractice. Similarly the “advice” (or is it orders now?) that folks with modest symptoms go home and wait for pneumonia. They ought to be working to prevent the advance. Hydrothermal therapy. Antivirals. Vitamin & mineral status.
I am deeply dissapointed in “modern” medicine in this event. All reaction at the end, nothing for mitigation of severity up front.
E.M. Smith ,
I am sorry… something went wrong
for some reason the replies addressed at two other people seem to be addressed to you.
My comment at 1:22 pm was for David A’s comment at 10:03 am about “gratuitous insults”
My comment at 1:58 pm was for O C Osborn at 10:14 am about “not understanding what an exponential curve is”
I am sorry for the confusion, none of this was aimed at you.
I had read your previous comment, everything is fine, its all in the past now, thank you for that comment.
https://www.westernjournal.com/china-tying-coronavirus-help-business-ties-congressman-says/?utm_source=Email&utm_medium=WJBreaking&utm_campaign=ct-breaking&utm_content=western-journal
@Canadian Friend:
I was the one that tossed the Suspicion Stink Bomb and got everyone else moving, so since I started this, it is all “on me”. That’s why I took on your comments at others, not confusion caused by anyone else.
But “no worries”. I screw up sometimes, but take solace in doing it less than most folks.
E.M.Smith [replied] 6 April 2020 at 1:50 am [GMT]:
Over 1/2 of the American population has German ancestry. Bit hard to make our Germans out to be genetically predisposed differently to their Germans.
You so recently summarized your bona fides for logic that I’m quite surprised to read your jousting with a strawman attributed to me:
In my recent posting on “persistent national characteristics” of Germans, I meant only those “Germans” in what is, or broadly was, Germany. I thought that in the context of your topic‘s link to an article titled “A German Exception?”[*] I did not write about genetic characteristics. Instead, I wrote only about social (I wrote “sociological”) characteristics (for which I cited sources), which I listed in boldface:
• ingenu[ity];
• precision;
• industriousness;
• academic[ally] respectable practical/b>[ly] applied science;
• exceptional individual honesty; and
• civic orderliness.
Only the first two could have any genetic component whatsoever, i.e., ethic innate intelligence. All the others are strictly derived from the more-or-less distinct society of which they’re members.
I regard the touted German ingenuity as akin to the “Yankee ingenuity” with which the U.S.A. is broadly credited [@]. The latter characteristic, applied to a genetically very mixed country overall, is plainly not genetic. Well, I suppose readers might debate my generalization, but I hope that it’ll be productively based on verifiable facts.
The declared subject of this (overall) topic already provides plenty of reading when confined to CoV-19. If this digression on nature vs. nurture continues much farther, I recommend that it be moved to a “W.O.O.D.”, where I’m allowed to elaborate more extensively. Altho’ I recognize that the call would be E.M. ‘s.
——-
Note *: “A German Exception? Why the Country’s Coronavirus Death Rate Is Low”, as rehosted from the New York Times. <https://dnyuz.com/2020/04/04/a-german-exception-why-the-countrys-coronavirus-death-rate-is-low/>.
Note @: I doubt that Europeans, on whose behalf we intervened in 2 world wars, would limit that characteristic to the Damn Yankees, defined as United-Statesians from north of the Mason-Dixon line.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2020/04/correcting-recent-u-s-weekly-death-statistics-for-incomplete-reporting/
One of the ladies posted this link. Thought you guys might be interested.
It shows your state’s POV on the ‘Trump Protocol.’ (actually the French Doctor’s but that is not the way the media sees it.)
https://naspa.us/resource/hydroxychloroquine-chloroquine-and-azithromycin/
https://www.fort-russ.com/2020/03/italy-only-12-of-covid19-deaths-actually-list-covid19-as-cause/
@Gail Combs, Hydroxychloroquine requires a prescription in the US, so what this is saying is that the pharmacist can or must override the doctor in some states.
https://medbroadcast.com/drug/getdrug/plaquenil
Looks like Boris Johnson is in the ICU. Trump said he’ll be talking about some pharmaceutical approach that sone folks ftom here have dispatched to there. More when he actually talks about it.
@Compugator:
FYI:
Ohio State constitution was writren in German. My Amish German ancestors are from near there and spoke (some still do ) German.
There is a Texas dialect of German called Texasdeutch…
So USA has both cultural and genetic components.
FWIW, my posting / question about why Germany had different rates did not assert an answer. It could be genetic, or reporting, or diet, or testing. It is very unlikely to be cultural, but I suppose maybe stiff distancing non-huggy could be involved.
Canadian Friend, my first response above was…
“Canadian Friend, perhaps if your response is delayed it is best to link to your comment that precipitated said responses.”
So clearly I had no idea what was the cause of your angst.
And yes, you did make a gratuitous comment ” you people here” very unspecific, and you admitted you were returning the same. Again don’t know what you were referring to.
As to your linked article, I saw nothing there that would raise a strong protest, and don’t know that there was one.
Bottom line, I don’t know what you were referring to and yes, making a general critique to the blog is over general, vague and confusing.
Our host, and most commenters here, will discuss anything in general with reason and unemotional debate.
Lkanfor, I did not find your link particularly compelling.
Regarding “Italy currently reports 2978 pandemic-related deaths. 99.2% of those were already sick”
I did not find the article convincing as pre existing conditions, high blood pressure, diabetes, etc are all weaknesses Covid-19 attacks.
I have moderate high blood pressure.
Would I be part if those already sick?
Also AFAICT, they made zero attempt to explain the overwhelmed hospitals and mortuarys, instead just referencing those as rumors.
Lkanfor, do expand on why Covid-19 is so deadly please review how it attacks the body in so many disparate ways…
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/must-read-covid-19-crisis-unlikely-to-end-in-the-next-few-years,-eight-distinct-mutated-strains-identified-with-different-clinical-manifestations
In general this bug appears taylor made to attack almost any weaknesses in the body. From the above link…”
So far a lot of research since we mentioned about how the SARS-Cov-2 virus binds to the ACE2 receptors has been focused only on that with very little attention paid to its other ways of binding via the furin cleavages, GRP78 receptors, the CD 147 receptors etc. New studies have also emerged that the various strains have even more modes of binding with human host cells and also affecting the various proteins in the body https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/must-read-covid-19-research-sars-cov-2-virus-can-target-332-human-proteins,-have-variety-of-binding-sites-40-new-prospective-drug-candidates-identified“
Canadian Friend says:
6 April 2020 at 1:22 pm
You have to be cleverer in your design of insults. It is an art.
The best are when you can slip one in and no one notices.
===
On a lighter note
Social Distance – 6 ft.
Anti-Social Distance 6 miles.
Any instances of The Wuhan flu at the Antarctic research stations?
They are pretty socially isolated. I suppose they can gather in any size group that they can round up.
@Gail Combs,
“Spain reporting lower death rates for second day in a row, doctors are prescribing hydroxychloroquine to 74% of patients. Liberals would rather see people die than admit you were right. Terrible.”
Thanks to COVID-19 we have a subject worthy of your attention and amazing research capabilities. Welcome back.
Sadly, only 24% of US doctors are prescribing HCQ for their patients most likely out of deference to the “Task Force” in general and Dr. Fauci in particular. Do these people have “Blood on their hands”? The same people also misled the public with respect to the efficacy of face masks.
Doctors specializing in the treatment of Lupus are asking their patients if they have tested positive for COVID-19. Many of these patients are on HCQ. If these patients have a lower incidence of COVID-19 infection than the general population that would be significant.
As you point out the COVID-19 virus is not doing well in countries where the use of HCQ is widespread.
Let’s hope Boris Johnson won’t refuse to try HCQ because Donald Trump made positive comments about it.
A short note about France. The stats jumped because they decided to add in all the care-home deaths that hadn’t previously been counted. I’d expect that the underlying actual rate should be starting to drop around now.
In other news here, one insurance company has noted an 80% drop in car accidents, and (somewhat unusually) has decided to give a rebate (around 30 euros each) to its customers.
Since so many deaths have been ascribed to Covid-19, I’d expect the overall deaths from other causes to be way down this year. Definitely fewer deaths on the roads, too.
Jo Nova’s article about so many medicines sourced in China came as something of a surprise to me. http://joannenova.com.au/2020/04/those-who-control-the-medicines-control-the-world/ Seems crazy to allow that sort of dependence, but then we’ve also let that happen to shipbuilding, steel production, and a load of electronics stuff. Seems to me that if your country cannot produce all it needs, you haven’t really got an independent country and can be subjected to Hydraulic Despotism. Maybe the WuFlu will act as a wake-up call to enough politicians to make a difference. Germany is dependent on Russian natural gas imports, too. The EU in general has outsourced too many basic industries to reduce the costs now, but that loss of manufacturing capability is bound to bite sometime.
@David A, I apologize for not fully vetting that article prior to posting. Yesterday was our major move-out completion of our old apartment. 13 hours (not including lunch), my wife and I packed up stuff the movers left (they ran out of truck) and delivered to our new townhouse (rental) and storage.
On another note, Ivermectin is making the rounds (starting at the reference):
… and WordPress truncates the time offset when running the video. If you follow the link to YouTube, it’s correct. Else go to 39:25.
Simon, would you think the lower deaths are not so much related to Covid-19 deaths as they are to the lockdown and travel bans.
All colds, flus and related pnemonia deaths should be crashing along with the rate of positive tests.
It’s possible that the more effective the lock down, the more some will say it was not needed.
David A – the lockdowns will have reduced deaths from other causes, for sure. The retirement home extra deaths are most likely as a result of WuFlu, though maybe just accelerated relative to normal leading to a lower death rate in those homes later on. As regards deaths from WuFlu rather than deaths where WuFlu was there, not enough data we could trust.
The lock-down will also stop transmission of a lot of transmissable diseases, or at least reduce that by a lot.
Since the big problem is that of overloading the hospitals, if the lock-down does that then it will have worked. Looks like it will work. Trouble is when you release it, since without masks we’ll start off with a lot of people with the disease and maybe infectious – we are not sure of immunity after recovery nor whether the virus can remain active but hidden, like Ebola can remain in the eyes, and thus break out again.
If HCQ works as a prophylactic, we should use it. Seems India is largely where it’s made, using some chemical supplies from China, but this may suddenly change if politicians get clue. Still, ending the lock-down might work without that, just seems like relying on luck too much.
Well Well I think we should be talking about the difference between Faulkner and Cormack hope it will come to pass
Do you know that a Prophylactic is an FL or Condom dont be so believing, life goes on. HCQ is in actual fact an immuno suppressant, it is used for lupus and arthritis whereby the imune system fights itself so HCQ will help when the shit hits the fan regarding WuFlu. So we see that Diabetes is the most worst indication for Wu Flu Death simply because it is an autoimune disease WU Flu is attacking our imune system. Making it over reactive,
Of course a good way of suppressing your imune system sans HCQ is Whisky
@Fundme
prophylactic
[ˌprōfəˈlaktik]
ADJECTIVE
– intended to prevent disease.
“prophylactic measures”
synonyms:
preventive · preventative · precautionary · protective · disease-preventing · preemptive · counteractive · preclusive · anticipatory · inhibitory · deterrent
NOUN
– -a medicine or course of action used to prevent disease.
“I took malaria prophylactics”
synonyms:
preventive measure · precaution · safeguard · safety measure · preventive medicine
=========================
Yes, condoms are often referred to as prophylactics because they are used as a preventive, although not often on hot summer nights at the drive-in.
HCQ + Zpak + Zinc is a possible prophylactic for the Wuhan Flu. It has shown promise as a cure, particularly if taken at the onset of the Kung Flu.
It’s efficacy as a prophylactic is being studied at several hospitals (don’t know how many or their names, but some in NYC for sure) where the medical staff have been taking it as a preventative.
You have to take it and then test for antibodies to see if the Chinese Virus made a visit but the Trump Cocktail ;o) prevented it from kicking ass*.
*Another medical phrase Anglicized from the Latin and popular with a small cohort of medical professionals.
I think we should outsource only to non-communist countries. Outsourcing is cheaper and as long as it isn’t overdone, it can be a net benefit. After all, we were firing on all economic cylinders with the current level of outsourcing. And if we have several countries in the mix, it gives us geographic diversity of supply in a real SHTF moment. If we could clean up middle and south america, that would be a great choice. The CIA and SEALS can handle a good bit of it or if we have a really friendly leader, we could help clean up in a more direct fashion, kicking out the Russians and Chinese to boot. We don’t need them in our back yard anyway.
@FundMe:
Every drug has many modes of action. Sometimes a “side effect” is used as the desired effect. The use of Hydroxychloroquine in lupus and RA is exploiting a side effect. The suppression of a particular SUB PART of the large and complex immune systemS.
The major use is for killing the mictobe that causes malaria.
It has another effect. It lets zinc cross the cell membrane where it DIRECTLY clogs up the virus replication machinery. Thisvisvthe major mode of attack on Chinese Wuhan Covid virus. It, or zpack, also alkalinize an essential location in the cell that must be neutral to acidic to let the virus work. These two, together, are how it works. Whiskey does not do that.
There is a small possible benefit in late stage disease for reduction of cytokine storm damage. This is speculative and not important to the direct antiviral effects.
@Jim2:
Sole Source is generally a dirty word in logistics. The usual fix is to split orders over suppliers or countries. IMHO, just having a 50% Americsn requirement would assure a competitive market and national security.
FWIW: Given that Western Democracy is not “rubbing off” on China, and they have directly stated their intent to destroy us and have acted in a hostile way: I’m fine with a zero business with China policy.
Frankly, given lead paint on toys, crap in food oils, medicinals that don’t work, parts that fail spec, fraudulent materials substitutions, and viruses pre-installed in a variety of technical equipment (including custom ordered USB Thumb Drives for one employers promotional event where I was involved in filtering them out – 10% were buggered): In my professional opinion, you can not trust Chinese products at all at any stage of production. I personally buy no foods from China nor any electronics I can avoid with few exceptions.
Dr. Tom Yadegar, pulmonologist, medical director of the intensive care unit at Providence Cedars-Sinai Tarzana Medical Center in Los Angeles, and a specialist in critical care medicine, has developed a protocol to predict which patients are going to have a cytokine storm — when it happens it is too late. He follows a few lab tests, but doesn’t say which in the interview. The doctor is good, the interviewer not so much.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/california-doctor-develops-process-for-identifying-extreme-covid-19-cases-and-how-to-treat-them
Another video interview of an MD on the front lines in NYC. Dr. Cameron Kyle-Sidell is an emergency medicine and critical care physician.
https://blogs.webmd.com/public-health/20200407/coronavirus-in-context-do-covid-19-vent-protocols-need-a-second-look
He has noticed that the covid patients being put on ventilators are not like other pneumonia patients. Pneumonia patients are put on ventilators to help them breathe because their muscles are too weak to do it themselves. Covid patients are not like this; they are more like patients with high altitude sickness. The protocol of ventilators for covid patients is not working. It fails in 50 to 90 percent of the cases.
He suggests the better approach would be to put the patients on oxygen first.