W.O.O.D. – 10 October 2017

This is another of the W.O.O.D. series of semi-regular
Weekly Occasional Open Discussions.
(i.e. if I forget and skip one, no big)

Immediate prior one here:
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2017/09/15/w-o-o-d-15-sept-2017/
and remains open for threads running there
(at least until the ‘several month’ auto-close of comments on stale threads).

Canonical list of old ones here: https://chiefio.wordpress.com/category/w-o-o-d/

So use “Tips” for “Oooh, look at the interesting ponder thing!”
and “W.O.O.D” for “Did you see what just happened?! What did you think about it?”

For this week, I’m going to toss 4 topics in the hopper.

1) North Korea: Is Trump just rattling their cage with his cagey comments, or is something afoot?

2) Starting to see reports of Frost Harvest Failures from Europe / Asia. Wonder how it’s going in other parts of the world like South America and Australia / New Zealand…

3) Is it time to look at LENR again? A couple of stories:

http://e-catworld.com/2017/08/23/mizuno-claims-production-of-excess-energy-that-far-exceeds-input-in-new-lenr-experiments/

Mizuno Claims Production of Excess Energy that ‘Far Exceeds Input’ in New LENR Experiments
Posted on August 23, 2017
[…]
As a result, energy far exceeding input was continuously obtained. In the best results obtained thus far, the output thermal energy is double the input electrical energy, amounting to several hundred watts. The generated thermal energy follows an exponential temperature function. When the reactor temperature is 300°C, the generated energy is 1 kW.

When it’s kw scale and the output is double the input it isn’t subtile details of calorimetry technique… The Japanese are pretty hung up on not ‘losing face’ or being a screw up.

OTOH, I’m not quite able to swallow another “next year” and “no you can’t touch it” from eCat and Rossi:

http://e-catworld.com/2017/09/04/rossi-first-e-cat-plants-under-construction-will-sell-energy-not-plants/

Rossi: First E-Cat Plants Under Construction, Will Sell Energy, Not Plants.
Posted on September 4, 2017
[…]
Frank Acland
September 3, 2017 at 8:55 PM
Dear Andrea,

You say that your the first plants that you sell will be managed directly by you.

a) Can you explain what you mean by that?
b) Have you any agreements to build plants for customers yet?

Andrea Rossi
September 3, 2017 at 9:32 PM
Frank Acland:
a) that we will operate the plant and the Customer will not have access to the reactors
b) yes
Warm Regards,
A.R.

Frank Acland
September 3, 2017 at 10:50 PM
Dear Andrea,

Very interesting that you have agreements to build plants already.
a) Have you started building them yet?
b) When do you expect to have them completed?
c) Will you be selling the plant, or selling energy with these first plants?

Andrea Rossi
September 4, 2017 at 6:32 AM
Frank Acland:
a) yes
b) confidential
C) energy
Warm Regards,
A.R.

I’ve reached the “I’ll believe it when the State University has one running the campus and the Ph.D. Physics Department is conducting tours” stage – and even then only when 2 or 3 campuses of different schools are doing it… A decade or two ago I would have said “When he is awarded the Nobel Prize”, but given what they’ve been doing lately, I’m thinking that would indicate it was a put-up-job…

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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178 Responses to W.O.O.D. – 10 October 2017

  1. Lionell Griffith says:

    RE: LENR

    Words are cheap. Reports of claims are worthless. The so called experiments are replete with opportunities for error, misinterpretation, and misdirection. Even the experiments that are reported to be successful are not available for close inspection. All we have are reports of claims built up out of cheap words. It has been many decades since the first reports of claims, That is all there still is.

    Where is the working prototype that can be transparently examined? It is going to happen “real soon now” meaning it has yet to get past the cheap words stage. Is there any there, there? Worthy of any degree of anticipation? The probability is indistinguishable from zero. The ONLY evidence that has been provided is “anything is possible”. No, actually anything is not possible. Perpetual motion machines for example. The LENR claims are very like still one more perpetual motion machine that appears plausible if examined only with out of context fantasy but not achievable in this universe. Fundamentally, there is no such thing as a free lunch.

    For any who think there is something to it, build it, show us but otherwise keep the cheap word reports of claims to yourself. Don’t promise, DELIVER!

  2. p.g.sharrow says:

    From time to time I hear “Fraud” to describe LENR and Rossi’s attempts to commercialize it because we can not pop down to to the local Big Box and purchase a LENR water heater.
    Government regulators will not allow public sale and use of any such device. Anything with “Nuclear” in it’s name requires very tight control of it’s use. This will take a VERY LONG time to reach the general public, these devices can not be sold to, or operated by the public by government dictate!
    As to a con, HENR has been promising positive results for over 50 years. The best results that I know of is 98% output of the total energy input. The projected time to commercial HENR systems is now 50 years in the future. After hundreds of $Billions of public money spent, this is the “Real Fusion”solution to our energy needs?
    Ignore that “Fake Fusion” LENR stuff because these people that have spent a few $millions of their own money, can only claim 2 or 3 times output to input, and after 20 years of effort still haven’t put their product into the market place.
    Fraud indeed! just who is really conducting a con-game here?
    I have been studying fusion for over 60 years, Carrying out HENR is a contradiction of the physics involved. The very event of HENR snuffs out the reaction and causes dangerous un-useful high energy radiations. This may NEVER produce useful results.
    LENR shows promise to provide useful energy production as well as solving the problem of passivizing the radioactivity of waste materials that result from Fission reactors. Government regulation is a greater road block here rather then the physics involved…pg

  3. Tregonsee says:

    When I was finishing my physics doctorate in nuclear fusion around 1980, Pons and Fleischmann were just becoming famous, or notorious. My view of conventional fusion techniques was so poor that I moved to another, related area. A decision which I have never regretted. However, I did keep in touch with former colleagues. About the only thing I ever heard about Cold Fusion was the joke that they were buying Mason jars, just in case. 35 years later, a lot of genuinely important physics has been learned about HENR, and perhaps about LENR. When ITER comes on line, and a big if, the results are judged on engineering rather than wish, it may well be found that while you can produce power that way, it is just too marginal to be practical. As for LENR, there seems to be something there, which is important from a physics standpoint. From an engineering standpoint, there are just too many signs that one should be very careful about accepting claims without better proof than has been given.

  4. bruce says:

    mizuno:
    If you factor in the energy necessary to prepare the elements? Nano sizing, cleaning, mining the material, preparing the the chambers, I hope it comes out positive returns.

  5. Lionell Griffith says:

    PG: Anything with “Nuclear” in it’s name requires very tight control of it’s use.

    It still doesn’t prohibit a demonstration of a Cold Fusion reactor from being produced and be made available for transparent close inspection. It should be possible to show E Out > E In reliably and on command. Such does not yet exist. All we have had from the Cold Fusion crowed are piles of reports filled with cheap words, diagrams, and charts with promises it is going to happen “real soon now”. There is no evident proof of concept. it is vapor wear until proven otherwise.

    Hot Fusion reactors are approaching Break Even but it appears it is like approaching the speed of light. The closer you get, the more it costs to get still closer. Break Even is promised to happen real soon now but Break Even doesn’t pay the bills.

    The really hard part with Hot Fusion is creating a controlled reaction. We have had H bombs for a long time that give a really big bang with slightly better than order of magnitude control but nothing that can give us so much as a warm glow of extra energy in a usefully controlled way. So controlled Hot Fusion is not vaporware but it is very hard to see the difference.

    I don’t have to be able to buy a Cold Fusion reactor at Walmart but I do have to see one at work and be able to verify it is legitimate before I will be convinced it can happen. The way I see it now, betting that it is going to happen is rather like betting on a horse with a bad case of heaves and two broken legs to win the next Kentucky Derby. The only sure thing is most if not all your money will end up in someone else’s pocket.

  6. philjourdan says:

    Ok #4 – Weinstein.

    First, I do not believe any of these democrats about their “shock” about the letch. The Godfather was written almost 50 years ago! And it was old then! So I have no respect for any of them. They got what they wanted from him – big careers. Save us your faux outrage.

    But why now? I feel like the Guild in Dune. I see plots within plots within plots. And yes, I see the invisible hand of Donald Trump. It is definitely a boon to him, but I think we have only seen the edge of this “scandal”. It has quieted many of the Hollywood mouths, even when they try to bring up the tape! But this is too big to be ONLY that. So I will just wait and see what else pops out of this. I think we have only seen the opening gambit. The main game has not started yet.

  7. Larry Ledwick says:

    Yes as this story develops, it will completely destroy the moral authority (as if they ever had any) of the Hollywood A list actors to chide Trump about his actions. They will be shown to be total hypocrites as the world learns he just talked about what Hollywood stars and groupies would allow powerful people to do, yet they were actually doing it or witnesses to that sort of behavior and never said a word to protect their careers. Clearly an open secret in the industry.

    There is a video of Scarlett Johansson allowing herself to be fondled on camera by Ryan Seacrest during a TV interview, and all she does is smile giggle a bit and stand there, completely acquiescing to the groping. The hosts joke about her having her breast squeezed repeatedly and that it was okay because the man doing it was gay.

    This was a joke to everyone involved but is clearly proves what Trump said that starlets and groupies will let rich powerful men do absolutely anything.

    There are many stories out there about how the casting couch is a lot more than a couch and young actresses will do literally anything to get parts. Unfortunately the media and the industry have a code of Career Omerta about this sort of institutionalized assault culture in the form of blacklisting anyone who says anything. Much like Bill Cosby everyone knows it is going on but no one is willing to sacrifice multi million dollar movie parts to say anything publicly.

  8. jim2 says:

    We were discussing temperature and heat measurements the other day. This instrument has actually been used to study some of the cold fusion claims and came up with zilch. (I’m not sure why drug links are in there ??)

    http://earthtech.org/calorimetry/

    Details:
    http://www.earthtech.org/experiments/ICCF14_MOAC.pdf

    Some experiments:

    http://earthtech.org/calorimetry/interesting-results/

    More experiments:

    http://earthtech.org/excess-energy-claims/

  9. jim2 says:

    Don’t forget Bill Clinton and Jeffrey Epstein.

  10. philjourdan says:

    Another hint of what is up with Weinstein (plans within plans within plans). http://www.breitbart.com/news/rose-mcgowans-twitter-account-suspended-there-are-powerful-forces-at-work/

    Now, even the left is getting bitten by the big 3. Will they learn to NOT trust “big brother” (whether he wears a fed uniform or a Google one)? Or will they meekly go along?

    This onion is worth the peel!

  11. Larry Ledwick says:

    Item on how North Korea has broken through into production self sufficiency with key enabling technology of CNC machines. By cloning purchased machines it has learned how to build its own, which enable them to manufacture at home prohibited technology which is very difficult to buy on the open market. Like The Red Chinese of the Korean war vintage made complete from the ground up knock offs of US jeeps complete with hood emblems North Korea has lifted itself by its boot straps with the aid of blackmarket equipment to achieve near manufacturing parity with other industrial nations.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-technology/how-a-homemade-tool-helped-north-koreas-missile-program-idUSKBN1CH1I4

  12. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry:

    I always wondered why the embargoed folks didn’t just make their own. It isn’t like CNC is new or exotic. Just machine tools and computer attached to drive motors. Easier than disk drives…

    @Phil:

    Nothing like watching The Most Left eat their own … makes for entertaining irony ;-)

    @Jim2:

    I’ve often said doing calorimetry correctly is very very hard. It is my core complaint about Global Warmers. They do it very very wrong.

  13. Another Ian says:

    E.M.

    A bit hard to hook it up in one of these

    Parr automatic adiabatic calorimeter

  14. jim2 says:

    @ Another Ian says:Parr automatic adiabatic calorimeter

    I’ve used one of those. Long, long, time ago …

  15. Larry Ledwick says:

    I think this should be filed under – I could have told you that before the law was passed.
    Study finds mandatory background check laws on all gun sales have little if any affect on the number of background checks actually run. In short they are a complete waste of time and money.

    http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/452651/study-finds-background-check-laws-wa-and-co-did-nothing

  16. Lionell Griffith says:

    “In short they are a complete waste of time and money.”

    Which supports my contention that is exactly what the intended result was in the first place. The failure of the law to “work” will lead to more demands for laws that themselves won’t “work”. Repeatedly, until martial law is declared followed by the collapse of the society.

    The goal of ALL such laws is the ultimate takeover of every aspect of the citizens lives by the increasingly empowered government. The final outcome of which will be the society collapses into a pile of rubble. It is not “for the children”, it is not “for the poor and disadvantaged”, it is not for “the public interest”, it is for only and exactly the destruction of the good BECAUSE it is good.

  17. E.M.Smith says:

    Power hates competition. All power acts to consolidate to itself and remove the power from others. The whole “gun laws” mess is just one example. The end state is Tyranny and Supreme Central Authority, that lasts until it collapses from lack of maintenance by the rabble…

  18. Larry Ledwick says:

    Trump gets his victory on immigration ban through Supreme Court decision that dismisses as moot and vacates earlier lower court rulings on the case.

    http://www.nationalreview.com/article/452569/supreme-court-gives-trump-travel-ban-victory

    http://www.scotusblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/16-1436.pdf

  19. Larry Ledwick says:

    Hmmmm do it yourself medicines?
    The Linux effect is now about to change modern medicine (although might take several decades)
    (this site has a pop up which disappeared for me on reloading the page)
    https://www.statnews.com/2017/10/12/michael-laufer-drug-prices/

  20. jim2 says:

    No, I missed the “automatic.” I used a manual bomb calorimeter.

  21. Another Ian says:

    jim2 says:
    13 October 2017 at 11:14 pm

    No, I missed the “automatic.” I used a manual bomb calorimeter.

    Jim, they were nice gear even back in BC when I used one

  22. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    I’d agree with that. Trump is very tactical. Having identified the obstuctionist targets, he looked at methods, then resources, and Bannon moved out to be a rebel underground loyal to the king… atticking the swamp from befind…

    @Larry:

    Folks have always made their own medicines, thus my copy of an 1800s pharmacopia and several herbal remedy books. What that guy is doing is just extending it to kitchen science for synthetic drugs. That the last half century or so the FDA has acted to suppress what people have always done has slowed it, but not stopped it.

    I’m all for DIY anything. I’m presently making DIY antidepressant – hard cider :-)

    I was going to make a still, then I learned to do freeze separation and it was moot. I did develop the acetone THC extraction technique (about 45 years ago…). Chemistry is your friend ;-)

    If times demanded it, I could easily start making DIY aspirin and penicillin. I’ve used blue cheese to cure things like sore throats. The penicillin is destroyed in the stomach, but soaks in through the mucous membranes. So just slowly let bits of blue dissolve in the mouth and under the tongue all day. Aqueous extractions are trivial (I make one each morning from coffee :-) and since csmelia are a tea plant, extracting caffeine would be simple. I already have the plant. (Made tea from it once. Workable, but uninspired flavor).

    That said, his bioreactor looks more gimic than functional to me. Metal lid band in a reaction space is not a good idea. I hope that was really the shadow of something else. Personally, I’d go for a fish tank heater and glass bowl aquarium or 1/2 gallon canning jar with plastic plug… or mayo jar with plastic lid (temperatures permitting). Though I did make biodiesel in a quart canning jar…

    The idea that chemistry is to become the exclusive domain of drug and chemical companies is offensive. Far beyond a “micro-aggression”.

  23. jim2 says:

    How’s that coal-burning car workin’ out for ya there Elon?

    “PALO ALTO – Tesla fired hundreds of workers this week, including engineers, managers and factory workers, even as the company struggles to expand its manufacturing and product line.”

    http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/10/13/4819750/

  24. You may have fun watching Hillary Clinton talking about how bad it is having someone in the White House who preys on women. She’s of course talking about Weinstein….
    http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-41612762/clinton-on-weinstein-i-was-shocked-and-appalled

  25. p.g.sharrow says:

    jim2:
    It seems that H1b visa and workman’s comp.figures heavily in this realignment Ah la Disneyland. Only foreign workers need apply and the laid off have to train their replacements…pg

  26. jim2 says:

    pgs – Elon is behind on sales of the new vehicle. He gets paid by taxpayers to turn out his rubbish. Still, not saying he won’t use foreign labor. In a just nation, he would be in prison.

  27. p.g.sharrow says:

    jim2; I think you are right. Musk has mortgaged the farm, all it’s production for the next hundred years, eaten the seed corn and after screwing his suppliers and customers is starting on his employees. I wonder just how long he can keep up the appearance of success before his Ponzi collapses. Textbook MBA operation built on government largess and snakeoil…pg

  28. Another Ian says:

    The kawphy spelling comes to mind

    http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2017/10/unc-avoids-athletic-sanctions-by-arguing-their-african-american-studies-dept-had-staggeringly-low-academic-standards.html

    And in this era of genderbending will IH collectors have to censor the badges on the IH Transtar line?

  29. Another Ian says:

    “Report: FBI Uncovers Confirmation of Hillary Clinton’s Corrupt Uranium Deal with Russia”

    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/10/17/report-fbi-uncovers-confirmation-of-hillary-clintons-corrupt-uranium-deal-with-russia/

    Been a suspicion that Trump knows of Napoleon’s comment about not correcting the errors of your opponents. And as to where the ends of the rope might be.

  30. E.M.Smith says:

    Per Tesla:

    The entire Tesla Strategy (and Solar City and batteries and … ) rests on the foundation of Musk’s Mars Fixation.

    He has said he wanted to set up a Mars Colony since way young. It was a passion for him. What do you need in a Mars Colony?

    1) Solar Power. There isn’t a lot of oil and coal up there. So solar collectors.

    2) Electricity Storage. Between dust storms and night there’s gotta be a way to keep the lights on, the air clean, and the sewage pumped. Thus the battery program.

    3) Electric Vehicles. Can’t get around Mars on a combustion engine. What you gonna combust with what air.?

    4) Getting There. Need to be able to land your big ‘ol ship packed with people and supplies, and that isn’t going to happen with ‘chutes and rubber bags. Thus his rocket design with powered landing.

    5) OPM. To make all this happen, you need a LOT of Other People’s Money. Thus the move into lots of Government Subsidy Programs. (Getting them created if not already available). From cars to solar panels to batteries to even his Rockets. Get Uncle Sugar lined up to pay for it (and hide a lot of the R&D for a Mars Colony from close connection to a Mars Colony…) By the time he’s ready to launch, most of his R&D, tooling, and facilities will all be sunk cost from other “programs”.

    All we need to know now is what “venture” he will be rolling out that is a drop in replacement for a Mars Habitat and Mars Greenhouses…

    So from his point of view, any and all waypoint technologies (like Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy) are just disposable R&D steps toward the final machine. If they can be used to suck down subsidy money or get “customer” payments, so much the better.

    That said:

    With the Key Money Laundry of the Democrats out of power and with a hard headed penny pinching businessman in place; I suspect Herr Musk is wondering when the subsidy gravy train will be shut off and figuring out where he’s going to kill production costs to preserve progress to The Dream…

    At least, that’s what it looks like to me.

    Per Weinstein:

    Well, it’s fun to watch The Left get caught up in their own Political Traps. They thought that by defining things like “elevator eyes” (looking from head to toe) and saying “nice hair” as “sexual harassment” they would catch lots of Evil Republican Men. Both those things were explicitly called out in the Managers & The Law classes Apple required us all to attend. What they missed was that conservative guys are not as prone to “abuses” as the Liberals Of Hollywood… It was even emphasized that even if you are NOT at work, and run into one of your employees at a bar, and say “Hey, wanna dance?”, that being “off duty” doesn’t matter. Furthermore, even if the opposite number says “Sure, I’d love to dance!” – that doesn’t matter as it is considered under color of authority.

    So yeah, if ‘ol Harvey even said “Nice hair” or when casting for a part of a dancer said “lets see your legs and how you dance” he is technically committing “Sexual Harassment” under California law and case precedents.

    Now don’t get me wrong: Near as I can tell ‘ol Harvey was a stellar example of a sexual predator using power to coerce “favors”. I’m not defending him. What I am saying is that I’d expect pretty much 100% of anyone he “looked at” for casting could file a “valid” sexual harassment case given the rules in California. (Even if you are not in a boss / subordinate relationship and are neutral parties in terms of ‘power’, AND BOTH have agreed to a voluntary sexual relationship, under some circumstances if you fail to (for example) ask permission to move from kissing to caressing or ‘petting’ you are guilty. EVERY STEP is to be formally declared and permission asked. “May I hold your hand?”, “May I kiss you?”, “May I stroke your hair?”, etc. etc. No Joke.

    Similarly “rape” has been redefined to include all sorts of not-quite-sex. I can’t keep track of the edge cases (and don’t need to anymore). So those who accused him of “rape” may in fact have said “SURE, you can have sex with me”, but FELT like it wasn’t fully voluntary. Or even just changed their mind at the half way point… so if might have been consensual right up until the point she decided she’d rather be doing her hair, then it became “rape”…

    All those from formal legal training for managers on the topic.

    Given all that, I simply now never look below the chin (not hard as I lip read to assist my hearing most of the time, and NEVER EVER say anything at all about anything on, about, or near the person. Hair, clothes, shoes, makeup, height, weight, complexion, “partners”, preferences, what is someone’s favorite color, weekend plans, you name it. Any gals wondering why they get no interest from anyone at work need look no further than the law. Start talking about what you like to do on weekends, or worse, flirt even a little bit, I’ll suddenly have Things To Do elsewhere.

    BTW, this is NOT paranoia. It saved my bacon at one job. A “young hubulette” (local jargon for nubile young thing who knows it and works it) came in with midriff showing. Tight top, tight pants. She posed and wiggled such that anyone NOT fully up on things would have at minimum looked at her hips / waist. I stayed fixed gaze at her eyes. She was one of my employees and I’d just taken over the department a week before. LATER I found out she had a lawsuit against one of my other employees who was counter suing. Both or sexual harassment. I would rather have liked it IF I’d been briefed on this before the fact… I was gone from there in about 4 weeks and glad to be out of it. I’m pretty sure if I’d said anything like “Um, that top and midriff showing are not appropriate for the workplace” I’d have been off to HR for having “looked her over”. (Lucky for me I have excellent peripheral vision ;-)

    So ‘ol Harvey arranging meetings in hotel rooms? Making passes? Heck, even just looking ’em over at the office? 100% convicted under California Law. I’m surprised it took this long.

    Love the picture of Humma, Harvey, and Ms. Clinton all rubbing each others … presence…

    The SDA cartoon sums it up nicely too! The donkey has jus the right look ;-)

    That Ms. Clinton and The Dims can’t wrap their head around the idea that she was a Very Bad Candidate and they blew an election that was theirs for the taking if they had run damn near anyone else (including the Socialist Bernie! – heck, I might have even voted for him over Trump given the press at the time.), well, it’s just precious. “Bless their little hearts…” (Southern /Sarc;)

    Until they get back in touch with folks who get a W2 each year and not a pile of 1099s and portfolio analysis, they will continue to walk in the desert…

  31. Larry Ledwick says:

    That makes sense, I have been of the opinion for a long time that his real goal was space travel but had not made the specific mars connection.

    I suspect the hypertube project is part of the puzzle as well. Given dust storms on Mars, travel between settlements would be greatly facilitated by hypertube connections. The livable atmospheres needed in the capsules with a near vacuum in the tube like on a space craft will challenge technology for maintaining breathable atmospheres in small spaces, sealing and all that sort of hardware needed to make the hypertubes viable. Throw in the space capsule and you have a second habitable atmosphere project to share the load with, and both of those projects are probably good prospects for supplementary funding by Government.

    The nice thing about the hypertubes is he can sell that technology world wide so can milk dozens of government fund streams to keep the projects afloat.

    He has talked about Mars habitats recently. It appears he favors underground habitats rather than large above surface habitats. If so the tunneling technology would fit in well with hypertube needs if he builds sub surface hypertube networks here on earth, he can sort out his tunneling technology here.

    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-musk-reddit-ama-20161023-snap-story.html

    https://www.theverge.com/2016/9/27/13008010/elon-musk-mars-habitat-design-human-life-support-spacex

  32. E.M.Smith says:

    Gee… looks like the key hot property that was accusing O’Reily of bad conduct has a prior arrest for making false accusations to the police:

    https://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Bill-OReilly-accuser-false-allegation-Perquita-Burgess/2017/09/17/id/814093/

    A 2015 arrest by Detroit police of a key accuser of Bill O’Reilly for giving a false report of a crime has raised serious doubts as to her credibility.

    In April, O’Reilly was fired from Fox News shortly after Perquita Burgess claimed the host made sexually suggestive comments to her, including calling her “hot chocolate.”
    […]
    A Detroit Police report dated Feb. 11, 2015, documents Burgess’s arrest on charges of making a false report and obstructing a court order.

    According to the police document, Burgess called authorities and alleged her boyfriend had struck her in the face with a gun. Police said when they arrived at the scene Burgess “appeared intoxicated.”

    The arresting officer stated: “I asked Ms. Burgess where the gun was that she was struck with in the face, she replied there is no gun. I again asked her where the gun was, and if she had been assaulted. Ms. Burgess stated there was no gun, and he didn’t assault me!”

    The boyfriend told police she had threatened him, saying she would call “the cops saying you hit me with a gun!”

    According to the police document, Burgess was arrested for filing a false felony report and for violating a personal protection order.

    Why I think even cads like Weinstein ought not to have punative measures taken (such as being fired, having the Academy toss him out, etc.) until such time as some charge has been proven. It is WAY too easy to have someone just accuse and cause harm, when it’s all just a fabrication or set-up. Innocent until PROVEN guilty.

    (Though I wouldn’t let my daughter work there until the trial was over ;-)

  33. Another Ian says:

    “(Though I wouldn’t let my daughter work there until the trial was over ;-)”

    IIRC. Wouldn’t that be another difference between you and Obama?

  34. Another Ian says:

    Re Another Ian says:
    17 October 2017 at 10:28 pm

    Rephrased by Kate

    “When The Democrats Do It, That Means That It’s Not Illegal”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2017/10/when-the-fbi-do.html

  35. A C Osborn says:

    E.M.Smith says 17 October 2017 at 11:08 pm Re Tesla & Mars.
    Surely Mini Nukes is the way to go for powering any kind of undrground city and transportation systems?
    I can’t see any kind of Solar/Battery power solutions for those kind of loads.
    Ok for low load single vehicles as Mars rovers have shown.

  36. p.g.sharrow says:

    If Musk thinks that a Mars settlement is viable and can be solar powered he has never done the numbers. Of course as he has always been rich so He has no real concept of the cost of the wealth needed. Even the richest country in the world could not afford this project. AC Osborn is correct, only a Nuc power plant could provide enough power for this proposed boondoggle, and for what? There is nothing on Mars that we know of that is worth that kind of cost..pg

  37. E.M.Smith says:

    I’m certain that the best power solution for Mars is a tiny nuke. Just the same, what will be politically acceptable is a large solar array and lots of dust removal… and occasional replacement.

    As per Mars Colony viability:

    I think it is viable, though I also think a lunar colony is more viable.

    Why?

    Well, “cost to orbit”. Currently about $10,000 a pound. Maybe, if really done well, they can get that down to about $2000 or maybe even $1000. We’re talking about the price of silver. That makes even dirt valuable.

    So what can you make “up there” that pays off? Things that would otherwise be launched from Earth. All sorts of satellites (those solar panels making more sense now?) and things like spaceships (tubular or otherwise… that Tubular One (or whatever it’s named) train making more sense now?). Air and water. (Those air and water makers on Mars making more sense now?…) Rocket fuel. Insulation. Etc. etc.

    When you are paid $1000 / pound for spun rock and LOX, it isn’t as hard to make a profit.

    Then also note that assembled in low gravity with a soft launch, the whole structure can be lighter anyway as it doesn’t need to stand up to 3 Gs plus shaking.

    I suspect it will take a decade or so before actual products at a profit are made. Initial uses being government subsidized “R&D” (i.e. playing by ‘scientists’). But pretty soon you will find an offer to “refuel” satellites on orbit thus saving the $Billions to launch a new one (after all, we have the fuel being made and we’re in the area…). Then offers to attach solar panels to a stub sent up from Earth when you fuel it. Eventually getting to “just send up the instruments and we’ll wrap it in structure”. Titanium and Aluminum easy to come by on the Moon and in most rocks. Same thing for thermal shielding. Cost of high tech gold layered ultralight fabric vs rock wool installed on orbit from low cost lunar spinner.

    IMHO, it’s all about weight and comparative difficulty to manufacture. Things easily made on orbit or on Luna or Mars and with a significant weight component are advantaged by lift costs. Small light complex things like computer chips, or fancy hard to make materials (think 36 layer sandwich of mylar, metals, and more but only 1 mm thick) will be best sent up.

    People, long term, need dirt to hide under in solar storms (or just generally), plus some gravity or the metabolic changes are too much. So Luna and Mars both have an advantage for the people parts. Plus, things like making a melt of ore work better with some gravity… Mars has much more CO2 and Ice from which to make water, air, and fuels.

    Biggest issues I see with making Mars long term habitable are mostly the risks from things like dust storms, dust everywhere in general (silicosis is not your friend) and life for decades at fractional G; plus the psychological issues of spending 99.9%+ of your time underground in a cave. Oh, and during the start-up phase, getting enough variety of needed talents available. Doctors, Dentists, Botanists, Metallurgists, etc. etc. You need a LOT of people to make even a tiny town “go”. I’d say somewhere around single digits 1000s. (Folks will NOT want to be told “We could cure this on Earth, but not here” or “Well, a CAT scan would tell us in an hour, but I’m going to need to cut you open”. So the mass to stabile is larger than folks typically think. At $10,000 / pound to orbit, deorbiting a 200 lb person for a kidney stone lithotripsy then re-orbiting is a $2,000,000 kidney stone… Now look at the size of even small town hospitals…)

    So a rapid rise to “a few thousand” would be needed to get out of the “just visiting – services back on Earth” hole. If he can’t ramp to that inside a couple of years, it’s going to wither and die. $2 Million / head x 2000 heads is “only” $4 Billion for getting the staff up there. Figure about $8-32 Billion for the support gear for the folks (allowing that they will make some chunk of it up there). Heck, that’s less than one Jet Fighter Program the Pentagon throws away just before they are ready to deliver the first batch post prototype… ;sarc/

    So yeah: Hard. Requires massive money only Government Subsidy is likely to have. Highly risky. Lots of folks going to die in the process one way or another. Economics sketchy until shown to work / worked out. But I’d go…

  38. Another Ian says:

    “Most Depressing Thing I Read Today
    October 18, 2017, 10:29 am

    On the Dell web site, at the head of a no-export agreement I had to sign:

    The U.S. government views exporting as a privilege, not a right.

    Of course, my home state of Arizona considers every commercial transaction to be a privilege, not a right.”

    http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2017/10/most-depressing-thing-i-read-today.html

  39. Larry Ledwick says:

    I happen to be in the process of reading a book titled:

    “The Chinese Invasion Threat”
    Taiwan’s Defense and American Strategy in Asia
    (Ian Easton)
    (c) 2017

    This book details Chinese war planning documents and comments their Military have made about their intent to take back Taiwan by force if necessary by approximately 2020
    Details are extracted from both public and restricted Chinese Language documents. The book gives a very good detailed analysis of this objective which has been openly discussed by Chinese military and other information sources since 1949. Their current military build up efforts are well along toward that goal as they build the means to be dominant in the area between their continental coast and key islands like Kinmen (formerly known as Quemoy) and the Matsu island group

    As mentioned in the above linked article their military build up efforts clearly point to acquiring the means to conduct an amphibious invasion of Taiwan and associated key islands.

    Very good read (easy to follow well written) and stunning in its implications.

    It is interesting to observe that North Korea is useful toward that objective as a major distraction and possibly a diversion of military resources if it went hot at the right time.

  40. Mike says:

    @EMS What’s your take on the WiFi security bug reported here:
    https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=232470 ?
    (links to:
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/oct/16/wpa2-wifi-security-vulnerable-hacking-us-government-warns )
    (originally reported at:
    https://www.krackattacks.com/ )

    I don’t know enough about the topic to know if I should be worried, but if Denninger is worried, I’m worried!

  41. bruce says:

    Larry, could you give some bullet points of the author’s reasoning? My take is that South East Asia, and eventually most of the globe will be what might be described as vassals of China in fifty years.

  42. Larry Ledwick says:

    China is going through an awakening – sort of like the concept of manifest destiny in America in the early years of our country, where they see them self as ascendant and the rest of the world on the decent. There is a strain in their military much like the militant wing of the Japanese Army prior to WWII which think they are the best and the size of their military it absolutely dominant on the ground in that part of the world. What they have lacked is the military resources to dominate off shore.

    They are currently in the process of filling out those holes in their military capabilities.

    Some high up in the military show open contempt for American military and are quite open about their lack of respect for out current military capabilities in that part of the world (circa the Obama years when this book was written)

    More importantly Taiwan is to them a loss of face to have a breakaway province for 50 years and being unable to bring it back under their control. They have been making plans for reconquest of (Formosa) Taiwan for decades, and he sites numerous military planning papers that discuss the problems to be encountered in retaking Taiwan by force, right down to discussing the problem with a sea invasion and the extreme weather in the Formosa straights and the tides which are significant. Tides range up to 14 ft and due to the situation in the straits are more unpredictable than most of the worlds tides.

    They have identified the only two weather windows suitable for an invasion as the periods near March and April, and September and October. The rest of the year weather (like the typhoon that destroyed China’s invasion of Japan) are too treacherous to venture and invasion.

    I will dig into it more when I get home from work tonight I am about to leave for work now and don’t have the time to do a better summary.

    https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/why-china-is-building-the-worlds-largest-coast-guard-1677699141/1677841137

    http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2083109/china-building-navys-biggest-amphibious-assault-vessel

    https://www.popsci.com/china-nuclear-submarine-facility

    http://www.businessinsider.com/china-is-building-submarines-that-could-soon-be-quieter-than-us-ones-2017-7

  43. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    That Chinese schedule for war stuff is a bit distressing… but not unexpected.

    BTW, when managing the Cray for Apple, I was at risk of imprisonment for “export of a munition” if I allowed accounts on the machine to the “wrong” people or the “wrong” remote offices.

    I had to know, for example, if any given Apple Employee was a Persian or if they worked in the European offices…

    Yeah, go to prison for “exporting a munition” that weighs tons and never left our computer room…

    @Mike:

    My take on it is that it is a rather sophisticated attack only really usable at more publicly exposed places by someone with time to hang around.

    https://www.krackattacks.com/

    As mentioned in the demonstration, the attacker first obtains a man-in-the-middle (MitM) position between the victim and the real Wi-Fi network (called a channel-based MitM position). However, this MitM position does not enable the attacker to decrypt packets! This position only allows the attacker to reliably delay, block, or replay encrypted packets. So at this point in the attack, they cannot yet decrypt packets. Instead, the ability to reliably delay and block packets is used to execute a key reinstallation attack. After performing a key reinstallation attack, packets can be decrypted.

    So first they need to set up a MitM attack, then sit around waiting for someone “interesting” and then implement a complicated crack.

    Yes, it can be done. Yes it means WiFi is now crackable. It will likely take about 6 months for any significant number of players to have warz built to do this more automated. They will most likely be at High Value Places (Starbucks in D.C. or the Financial District) not in Podunk Bob’s Coffee… or in a parked car outside your nondescript suburban home.

    Now the Linux and Android communities will be “all over this” right quick. They will patch and push pronto. Well in advance of that 6 months point. So as long as you get security updates on your Mac, Android, and Linux equipment, you ought to have near zero risk from the temporary exposure.

    Where there IS risk, and a big one:

    1) High Value Target Companies. Were I running security at some major company, like, oh, Western Union that does money transfers, and had a WiFi set up in place, I’d be looking to shut off WiFi until patched. I’d also be implementing all sorts of countermeasures to detect and prevent MitM attacks from having any lifetime. Since folks try to prevent MitM attacks anyway, in most places of merit the attack will already fail at that point. (IDS to the rescue…)

    2) Mom-n-Pop shops with “Free WiFi”. Here, Mom n Pop can include large clueless chains with no real IT clue, like a restaurant or bookstore chain. Until patched, this bug stays in place. For these folks (or public libraries or…) they will likely never update their software nor will they go buy a new router (that will not help for about a year for product to be replaced on the shelves anyway…). So we’re looking at a long persistence problem in the less interesting places.

    Where there IS a risk and a minor one:

    Things like my old flip phone and my home network. Sure, an old phone with WiFi is an exposure. But really minor given where I go. Generally, folks with real value to steal own new stuff anyway. My home network will be exposed for however long it takes to get an update on the two WiFi routers. One Telco, the other Netgear. But I have trouble getting a decent signal 1 house away. I think I’ll notice someone parked on the street outside for hours waiting for me to get around to launching a browser (besides, the dogs bark at folks on the street now…)

    Yeah, in a year or two some neighbor kid hacker wanna-be will learn this trick and play with it against the nearest targets. Frankly, there are other easier hacks. Just AirSnort Denial Of Service are likely to be experimented with and be an annoyance first.

    I suspect most of us are like that. Friends on big lots have little risk unless a High Value Target. One friend is on about an acre lot (my guess). His WiFi doesn’t reach the street or his nearest neighbors. He doesn’t even have a password. Why bother?

    So yeah, It’s an issue. For example, I’m presently on an old MacBook Air. It has too little memory to get software updates to the latest releases. So it will have that “risk” forever. OK, I’m not going to be using it for “work stuff” at target sites. BUT, I’m quite comfortable using it from the bedroom to the office to the internet… I know my neighbors, I know who’s parked on my street, and I know I’m not in an interesting target area. (Frankly #2, I didn’t have passwords on MY WiFi until a couple of years ago. Left it open “in case the neighbors needed it”. Eventually on neighbor, during a discussion about network speeds, mentioned he had used ours, when his was having problems, to diagnose things.

    Practical Impact on Me:

    It means I’m a little more motivated to “role my own” WiFi Access Point with a Raspberry Pi. Eventually this particular Netgear will stop getting updates and go to the ‘experimental only’ pile. So if it looks like updates are slowing, I’ll “roll my own” for the next bit. I’ll certainly be doing this for my portable “Systems In A Lunchpail” as I want the very rapid updates you get with Linux.

    I’m glad I don’t actually use my phone for anything WiFi. I just use it as a phone. I will take my “burner phone” experiment phone and make sure I get a software update on it in a few months.

    I’m going to need an alternative to the Tablet for offsite use “for a while”. It’s my Starbucks Browser, but also my ‘in home sitting on the couch’ video and browser / display. OK, I need to isolate those uses until an Android patch is out. I think I’ll just use the MacBook at Starbucks for a few months. It has zero of interest on it and I do zero of interest when at Starbucks. The OS lives on a mini-SD card and is easy to clone / restore; so I’ll just make it a habit to load a new copy before I go out, and re-flash that same copy when I get home. Any “bad thing” that gets injected / installed gets nuked and gets nothing.

    I already have a hard wire connected “Financial System” used for things that matter. So now I get to feel smug 8-) I’ll also renew my recommendation to folks to make such a system of your own. Can be just about anything that is reasonably secure, single use only, and hard wired. I’m using an Odroid C2, but simply a $10 second mini-SD card in a Raspberry Pi M3 is just as good. Since it is connected by an actual cable to the Telco Router, it can’t be intercepted. This hack ONLY intercepts the WiFi link, it doesn’t capture the router.

    In short: I’m not real worried about it. It’s much like any obscure “zero day”. A bit of extra caution until patches are out, install patches quickly, try not to look like a target, make sure isolation of systems and bit-flow-outward work to mitigate risks. (Have a non-networked archive from which secure OS copies flow outward to exposed systems, but bits never flow back…) Be more aware of IDS and general monitoring. Include network monitoring in this case. Review your “Mobile Computing Sanitation Habits” and practice Safe Socializing (i.e. that condom of re-flashing a disposable system when being active in a crowed at social gatherings…)

    As I already don’t do things like mobile electronic payments nor online banking from remote questionable networks, I’m already 99% safe just from that. Someone wants to hijack my connection to iceage.now.info, well fine, maybe they will learn Global Warming is a crock…

    Ongoing Issues:

    This will be an ongoing, issue for years. The biggest Aw Shit will be when the patched version comes out and refuses to play with un-patched versions. LOTS of folks with un-patched stuff will be unhappy for a while and owners of very old unsupported stuff will cry. Expect more new phone and tablet sales to cheap bastards living on hand-me-down old stuff. Expect some company with little IT understanding in house and lax desire to pay for security to be hacked via this and make the news…

    Eventually it will become a script kiddies toy and then folks with old WiFi points in low risk places will start being hit. Minor impact really, but persistent and will cause some folks grief. But to the extent ever more places have Telco provided WiFi, that won’t happen. Since now AT&T, at least, supplies WiFi by default in their internet connects / POP for homes and small businesses, I’m really only seeing this as an issue at Podunk Coffee Shop with DIY WiFi put in 4 years ago by Bubba’s Brother. And frankly, not many hackers will be hanging out there for hours waiting for something to connect…

    My really old WiFi routers will need to be used for “experimental only” temporary things, but that’s already the case. Other folks might need to do that too…

    In Conclusion:

    Frankly, the NSA / CIA tool kit leaks were far more of a risk. They told how to get into all sorts of systems, and remotely. This is a demonstration stage only at present, and only cracks into ONE WIFi Session, and requires you to be physically close to do it. Some Guy in a foreign internet cafe in China, Russia, or France is just not a risk to you if you are not in the same internet cafe. The odds of anyone being such a person near my home is effectively 0.00000 and not changing.

    For most of the folks with in home or small office WiFi, this will be rapidly patched by their telco.

    For most of the folks with phones made this decade, this will be rapidly patched by their telco or OS vendor.

    For most of the folks with computers made in the last 1/2 decade, this will automagically be patched by their vendor.

    For most of the folks with Linux, they will be able to patch faster than others and even as beta testers. They will mostly be clueful enough to do it… But since lots of Linux boxes are NOT using WiFi but use wired connections, for all of them, this isn’t an issue.

    For most of the folks using Microsoft: My condolences. M.S. will again use this as a club to bludgeon you into system upgrades and badger you about licenses and generally break things until you buy All New OS and All New Apps that will run on it (that will, of course, require All New hardware to run it). Consider just plugging in an ethernet cable instead…

  44. Larry Ledwick says:

    Given recent events this is worth reading:


    It is a full statement by General Kelly regarding the phone call flap about President Trump and the wife of one of the soldiers killed in Niger.

    As noted in the statement if you have not seen the movie “Taking Chance” and are concerned about that phone call and how it was handled I strongly suggest you see the movie, it is a very powerful and well done look into the process of returning our soldiers home after being killed in action.

    Hopefully that image is view able by all, if not please look up General Kelly’s statement in full.

  45. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like Oroville dam repair will cost much more than expected (big surprise I know).

    https://apnews.com/55638c7795e34a8a845ed35cd6791e6e/Oroville-Dam-repair-costs-will-top-$500-million

  46. Larry Ledwick says:

    From facebook video from fire fighters who were called to assist on the Tubbs fire.
    firefighter video as they arrived in Santa Rosa Ca.

  47. Another Ian says:

    Would you believe?

    “Climate Craziness of the Week: Michael Mann hawking “climate toothpaste” ”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/10/19/climate-craziness-of-the-week-michael-mann-hawking-climate-toothpaste/

  48. Larry Ledwick says:

    What next we see him on late night TV hawking the Ronco Tornado Wizard Vacuum cleaner, Mann’s Miracle seal to patch the leaks in your screen door boat?

  49. Larry Ledwick says:

    @bruce says: 19 October 2017 at 4:55 pm
    [the basics]

    PRC “Chinese Army” centers all its training on an all out invasion of Taiwan. It is the battle case that is used in their training scenarios and Officer college level professional development courses.
    They use that scenario to drill and to war game strategy – it is the unifying central construct of their military thinking and planning.

    Most westerners are concerned about developments in the South China Seas and militarization of man made and enhanced natural atolls and islands. They perceive this as an effort by the Chinese to exercise total control over maritime routes in that area, and (to western minds) ridiculous claims to the South China Sea being territorial waters.

    There is some puzzling on why they think that way and what they hope to gain by putting international shipping at risk but it all makes sense when you realize that Naval dominance in the South China Sea and Sea of Japan are prerequisites for a successful invasion of Taiwan.

    The militarization of the South China Sea is not the end case, it is a necessary preliminary to the objective of being able to hold the worlds other powers at arms length long enough to take control of Taiwan.

    China has a no first use policy on Nuclear weapons but they know that when they move to retake Taiwan by force and outside nations come to the assistance of Taiwan, they will be able to claim self defense and interference in their internal affairs.

    They are building “Carrier killer” anti ship missiles specifically intended to hold the United States Super Carriers outside of effective fighter range.

    The US F/A-18E super hornet has an effective combat radius of 449 miles.
    The Chinese anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), named the DF-26 has a reported maximum range of 2500 miles. It also is capable of precision strikes on ground targets – ”
    this system is capable of conducting intermediate precision strikes against ground targets, which could include US bases on Guam.”

    Also China has the DF-21D which has been operational for several years. They have a range of roughly 900 miles. These two missile systems plus the currently in development hypersonic maneuverable warhead weapons systems could hold our carrier task forces completely outside their air wings combat range.

    Add to that, if “Crazy Rocket Boy” in North Korea creates a disturbance and holds South Korea and Japan at risk at the same time China made a move against Taiwan, we would have to choose which ally to protect.

    I think it is clear we would protect South Korea and Japan and stand aside on Taiwan because we do not have the Naval Assets to deal with both threats at the same time with current force structure.

    In Mainland China, they see Taiwan as a renegade province not foreign sovereign territory, they would not be invading a foreign country in their view, but liberating a part of their homeland lost to rebels almost 70 years ago. They seek to convert Taiwan to a governed province like Shanghai which is controlled by the national authority but operates under an approved second system of government (which like Shanghai will gradually be pulled back toward the parent countries rules and laws.)

    The CCP sees Taiwan as its most serious national security threat. As long as Taiwan exists as a separate entity there will be a doubt about the legitimacy of the CCP government, and a constant risk of conflict.

    In restricted Chinese planning documents it refers to the Invasion planning for reclaiming Taiwan as the “Joint Island Attack Campaign”. Their internal anti-Taiwan campaigns are conducted almost exclusively in Mandarin so are invisible to most of the west.

    In the end, only by directly conquering and controlling the island can we realize national unification … otherwise ‘separatist’ forces, even if they momentarily compromise under pressure, can reignite like dormant ashes under the right conditions

    Informatized Army Operations page 112

    Internally they rationalize the risk by expressing concern that Taiwan could be used by opposing forces to blockade main land China.

    In the military context Taiwan is to China as Britain was to Hitler and the Third Reich an unsinkable aircraft carrier and base for opposition naval operations. They also see Taiwan as a crucial requirement for them to blockade Japan. The Taiwan Strait is a life line to Japan like the North Atlantic and English channel was to WWII Britain. Likewise in foreign hands, Taiwan would be critical for the blockade of China’s foreign oil imports by sea, not to mention its foreign exchange and commerce by sea to the US and Europe.

    In one of their internal training documents:

    As soon as Taiwan is reunified with Mainland China Japan’s maritime lines of communication will full completely within the striking ranges of China’s fighters and bombers …

    Our analysis shows that, by using blockades, if we can reduce Japan’s raw imports by 15-20% it will be a heavy blow to Japan’s economy. After imports have been reduced by 30% Japan’s economic activity and war-making potential will be basically destroyed. After imports have been reduced by 50%, even if they use rationing to limit consumption, Japan’s national economy and war-making potential will collapse entirely …

    blockades can cause sea shipments to decrease and even create a famine within the Japanese islands. (source the “Japanese Air Self Defense Force Beijing Air Force Command College 2013 page 190 – 191

    [ now it makes sense why China is building such a large submarine fleet when they assert they are only interested in self defense]
    http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/china-submarine-capabilities/

    https://scout.com/military/warrior/Article/China-New-Anti-Ship-Carrier-Killer-Missile-Hits-2500-Miles-101455153

  50. E.M.Smith says:

    RT running a story about Cambridge applying “Trigger Warnings” on Shakespeare …

    Seems it has sex and violence in it…

  51. jim2 says:

    RE: Mars. I’ve read lately that we aren’t finding any other civilizations about because they probably killed themselves off, a sideways swipe at people who favor fossil fuels and progress in my view. But for those of us who have been involved in the climate debate, all we have to do is look at the long term climate proxies and other markers. We see a climate that shifts with no help from us. But more importantly, we see catastrophic changes brought about by asteroids and super-volcanoes. I think it is more likely mother nature spawns life and brings it to an end. A life form would have to really luck out to be spawned on a planet in an ultra-stable environment. That might not exist, or at least it is very rare.

    So, Mars might be a nice backstop if the worst happens.

  52. Jon K says:

    I’ve often struggled to understand how those on the left and right can argue for hours without ever finding common ground. This opened my eyes to some of the possibilities how this could happen.

    http://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/266197/civil-war-here-daniel-greenfield

    The foundational basis of authority is different. It’s like proving base 10 arithmetic to someone who only understands base 8.

  53. Larry Ledwick says:

    Or having a debate with someone who speaks a different language !

    Yes very good way to discribe what is going on, his discription fits perfectly.

    The Right is loyal to the Constitution and the Law, and the Left is loyal to an ideology and what ever means advance that ideology and which “sells”.

  54. p.g.sharrow says:

    @ Jim2: evolution takes place in times of chaos and isolation. Fast changing conditions force survival of only the most fit and adaptive for the niche they occupy.. Modern humans have had to adapt to rapidly changing conditions over the last few million years as conditions have flipped from warm to cold and back. That is why the mime of “out of Africa” may be wrong. I would vote for the north side of the Himalayan Mountains as the place that forced Great Ape the tree dweller to become the ground walker. At one time there were 80 species of Great Ape occupying the area of the Himalayan Mountains. Because of topography the river canyons and valleys are very isolated. Climate change would cause drastic changes in local conditions with little ability to find better conditions. So “adapt or die”
    Central Africa does not force fast adaption, Species just move to better conditions as the climate changes…pg

  55. Another Ian says:

    Re Larry Ledwick says:
    20 October 2017 at 3:32 pm

    Or having a debate with someone who speaks a different language !

    In my experience being in an area of a language you don’t understand is a bit like being deaf and dumb

  56. Another Ian says:

    One opinion – I doubt you’ll see much this way in the yellow stream

    https://realclimatescience.com/2017/10/fabulous-choice-by-president-trump/

  57. jim2 says:

    @p.g.sharrow
    So you think we could survive a hit by a 100 mile diameter asteroid?

  58. p.g.sharrow says:

    jim2 where would you get a 100 mile asteroid? Chicsalub was only 65. ;-)
    Humans live from the arctic to the Sahara desert, without modern tools. If any species can adapt to massive changes, a few humans will figure it out. They have survived and adapted through several

  59. p.g.sharrow says:

    several massive super volcano eruptions, as well as a comet hit that wiped out much of the north hemisphere fauna and humans. About 1% of the human population is very adaptable and smart. The rest will not survive for long..
    sorry about the 2 piece, my keyboard lost it’s IO connection for some reason and required a reboot…pg

  60. p.g.sharrow says:

    @jim2; is this what you have in mind?
    http://yowusa.com/2017/10/crustal-undulation/
    An interesting read about surface undulations of the Earth as well as meteor fall frequency. and Neburu / planet X disturbances…pg

  61. Larry Ledwick says:

    Minimum viable population is supposed to be about 4169 individuals without any artificial control over mating, at 500 individuals the population can recover if there are conscious efforts to get maximum genetic variation.

    In the case of a high technology human population if they had the ability to store eggs or sperm, a smaller number would suffice but in that case it would be desirable to have the maximum number of females in the initial re-population group as you would want to breed a large enough population quickly that would be large enough to limit its vulnerability to an accidental extinction due to some other insult like a plague, a major flood etc.

    Keeping those numbers in mind an extinction level event that killed off 99.99999% of the human population would still be recoverable if the survivors were able to come together as a group.

    By way of example the American Bison has recovered from a low point population of 1,091 in 1889.

  62. jim2 says:

    All the asteroids on this list are >= 100 miles diameter, some much larger:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_exceptional_asteroids

    Many planet-crossing Centaurs are in that category:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centaur_(minor_planet)

    Mother Nature says: Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results!

    It would only take one hit from a large object to wipe us out and that may be why we aren’t finding other advanced civilizations. Just trying to explain what we see.

  63. p.g.sharrow says:

    The greatest limiter to civilization is Bureaucracy..The educated Elites look at the buildings of wreaked civilizations and remark on how upon their highest achievement everything is quickly destroyed and barbarism takes over. The answer is always climate change and invaders. But how can barbarians prevail when they have been kept at bay for generations? How can climate stress cause civilization collapse when they are created to deal with problems caused by climate variance?
    Bureaucracies are created as a collective effort to deal with large problems that can not be handled with individual effort. But they take on their own life and those that gravitate to power and wealth use them as their vehicle to Empire building. Ultimately wasting the wealth that the citizens create. At some point the citizens revolt to this wasting of their efforts and lives. They quite often join up with the invaders to kill their own leadership, loot and destroy those Grand Creations of the Elites.
    Bureaucracy Always strangles the society that they “manage”. The better bureaucracy manages the faster the strangulation and the greater the collapse. In my experience and studies bureaucracy must be kept in an always starved condition to limit it’s growth. Bureaucrats must always be kept in low paid and low powered condition to impress on them that they are servants, not Masters! It is them or us! There is never enough wealth created to satisfy their demands to create more wondrous works of aggrandizement to their leadership. Wondrous works that waste their citizens lives and wealth and result in exhaustion collapse of the civilization that they manage…pg

  64. jim2 says:

    I’m no fan of bureaucracy, either. But that is a feature of humans. We organize into groups with a hierarchical structure. Even outlaw organizations have a social structure. Political structure is just an extension of that.

    I don’t see the “normal” climatic variations wiping us out. We could survive an Ice Age.

    But science depends on observation. The observation so far is that other advanced civilizations don’t exist. So, something had to wipe them out as I don’t see why our case would be the only one where civilization developed. The anti-technology crowd believes it means we will kill off ourselves with CO2 or nuclear weapons. I say the universe is a hostile place. It will wipe us out.

  65. David Walker says:

    “The greatest limiter to civilization is Bureaucracy..”
    Well said.

  66. gallopingcamel says:

    I recommend James Dale Davidson’s “Breaking Point”. In chapter three he characterizes the US federal government as a Pimpocracy. When you think about it that may be a pretty accurate analogy as in examples like these:

    JOHNS……………………….WHORES……………………PIMPS
    The sick……………………Big Pharma……………………..FDA
    Russian oligarchs……Mining companies………..Clinton crime family

    Sometimes the Johns are happy if the service is really good. I imagine Vladimir Putin is happy with what he got.

  67. p.g.sharrow says:

    gallopingcamel says:
    21 October 2017 at 8:05 pm He..He..He…..;-)…pg

  68. p.g.sharrow says:

    To the man out in the fields things change very slowly and generally forward. As new an better ways of doing things are created and adapted they become a part of general rural society.
    On the other hand the trappings of civilization and the cities that depend on them come and go. This new computer/ internet thing requires vast amounts of organization so there is no prior experience to judge it’s lasting abilities in the face of civilizational chaos.
    I believe that this is the game changer, Self organized chaos but there is the problem of government Bureaucrats trying to capture this new genii to aggrandize their own Empires.
    We don’t need them!…pg

  69. David A says:

    PG says…”In my experience and studies bureaucracy must be kept in an always starved condition to limit it’s growth. Bureaucrats must always be kept in low paid and low powered condition to impress on them that they are servants, not Masters! ”

    The average salary in DC, BEFORE benefits, is $124,000.!
    The average full time American worker earns 48 thousand.

    With benefits the average American worker makes LESS THEN 1/3rd of the average federal DC employee.

  70. David A says:

    The poor 50 K guy is paying taxes for the rich public employee to drive his Tesla, he is paying for the road to drive it on. ( the rich guy is not) He is often paying for the electricity to charge the rich public employees car as well. Free charging stations in some public facilities.

  71. Lionell Griffith says:

    “We don’t need them!…pg”

    That is absolutely correct, we don’t need them (Bureaucrats). They need us even as they pass rules and regulations that make it increasingly difficult for us to make the things both they and we need to live. They add no value to our lives but they expect us to feed them. If we don’t, out come the boots, clubs, guns, and the taking of liberty, property, and lives of the very people upon whom their lives depend.

    We need a government to live cooperatively but it must be a strictly limited one at all levels. Its primary function should be to keep the internal and external thugs from taking our stuff and killing us. If government goes beyond that function, it becomes the same as the thugs it was supposed to provide protection against.

    As part of government, we need a rational and objective judiciary following objective law and to provide a non violent path of redress of grievances. We need a well armed and tightly managed military to stop the aggression of external thugs. Finally we need a tightly controlled police enforcing the objective law to protect us from internal thugs. Then on rare occasions, we need a temporary body to consider and write objective laws constrained by the strict provisions of a well written constitution. There is no other valid function for a government of a free people. Even then, it takes a vigilant, informed, willing to act populous to keep the government within its proper bounds.

    As has been said, government is a dangerous servant and a deadly master. Our challenge is to return government to the dangerous servant level and to make sure it stays that way.

  72. Larry Ledwick says:

    This is interesting, I wonder if this is partially responsible for the climb in bitcoin value?

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/venezuelans-bitcoin-mining-escape-inflation-020507653.html

  73. gallopingcamel says:

    Geoff was a good friend who knew all my team mates on the Coventry rugby team including Mike McClean, Herbie Godwin, Phil Judd, John Owen, Peter Robbins, George Cole, Ricky Melville. We were a pretty good team given that we could beat Welsh rugby clubs and we came within three points of beating the New Zealand “All Blacks”.
    http://www.birminghamhistory.net/2015/05/26/a-rugby-legend-peter-jackson/

    It distresses me that Geoff and I have not spoken since Donald Trump became the GOP candidate. Today I accidentally drove him crazy. In a mischievous mood I supported a campaign to put Trump’s image on Mount Rushmore:
    https://www.change.org/p/donald-trump-put-donald-trump-s-face-on-mount-rushmore

    Here is my attempt to reach out to my old friend via email. In addition to the text below I attached the first four pages of chapter three in “Breaking Point” by James Dale Davidson and my outline for a business that will undercut Canadian pharmacies.:

    Geoff,
    I don’t use social media such as Fakebook and Twitter so I did not intend my support for the idea that Trump deserves to be ranked with George Washington and Abraham Lincoln to become visible to you.

    Now that the cat is out of the bag let me explain why Trump will be honored on Mount Rushmore if he continues on his present path. The United States of America is a Pimpocracy. You may not be familiar with that term so I attach some pages from “Breaking Point” by James Dale Davidson. Davidson co-authored “The Sovereign Individual” with Lord Rees Mogg (another Welshman).

    In a Pimpocracy, the “Pimps” make sure that the “Whores” don’t face competition, so the “Johns” pay high prices. Here are a couple of examples of how this works:

    Johns……………………Whores………………….Pimps
    The sick……………………Big Pharma……………………..FDA
    Russian oligarchs……Mining companies………..Clinton crime family

    Probably Vladimir Putin is very satisfied with the “Service” he received but the sick not so much given that they pay $250 for something that cost $1 only five years ago. Take a look at the attached “Business-outline.doc”

    My on-line pharmacy will be called “FairPharmacist.com” with a life expectancy measured in months until Donald Trump took an interest in drug prices:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-16/trump-s-new-talk-on-u-s-drug-prices-sends-biotech-index-down

    Suddenly it becomes much less likely that the FDA will try to shut me down given that the mission of my little company is to ensure that sick people don’t have to go hungry in order to pay ridiculous prices for the drugs they need.

    This is an example of what happens when a politician can’t be bought by Big Pharma. Donald Trump can’t be bought by any of the lobbyists in Washington so this sort of thing is happening across the board. Donald Trump stands for honest government which is why everyone in Washington (Democrats and Republicans alike) oppose him. Fortunately for the American people it won’t matter. As long as Donald Trump sticks to the agenda that got him elected he will have the unwavering support of people like me. Hillary may have won the popular vote in 2016 but Donald will crush whoever the Democrats nominate in2020.

    Donald is the antidote to the corruption that makes medical care in the USA cost twice what our major trading partners spend and five times as much as in Latin America. The Congressional Budget Office does not measure federal government corruption for obvious reasons but the elimination of corruption will turn out to have a greater effect on our $20 trillion debt than the booming economy that is about to arrive.

    Best wishes,

    Peter

  74. Another Ian says:
  75. jim2 says:

    Watching the major Sunday talk shows. Even now, the liberals continue to recycle the idea that Trump supporters are stupid people, duped by fake news which they spread rapidly on social media. If they want to know who’s duping who, a quick glance in the mirror will explain it all.

    I’m also tired of the libtards latching on to any ambiguity in any Administration officials communications, including of course Trump himself, and attempting to manufacture a lie of it.

  76. jim2 says:

    Life in China … they can have it:
    ““What my husband has gone through during that 22 months in jail was relentless, inhuman, perverted and unthinkable,” said his wife, Wang Qiaoling, 44, who has emerged as an outspoken advocate for rule of law amid her husband’s enforced silence. “The police will torture you till the edge of death, both physically and mentally.””

    http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-china-rights-lawyers-20171020-story.html

  77. gallopingcamel says:

    This is a bit embarrassing. That near victory over the All Blacks in 1963 never happened. They thrashed us (Midland Counties) at Coundon Road, Coventry 37-9.

    Wrong team, wrong year, wrong result. The match I was “remembering” occurred three years earlier:

    “1960 – Veteran England flanker Don White scores the only try of a 3-3 draw by the Midland Counties against the Fifth Springboks.”

    Back then a try (touchdown) was three points as was a penalty (field goal), so we had a moral victory as everyone considered a try to be worth more than a penalty. In modern rugby a try = 5 points, a conversion (point after) = 2 points. A penalty is still 3 points.

    Don’t trust your memory if you suffer from CRS. I guess General Kelly has a similar problem and it tarnished an otherwise magnificent take down of the Fake News jackals.

  78. jim2 says:

    @gallopingcamel 2 October 2017 at 5:01 pm

    What did General Kelly say that was wrong. The only thing I know of is he didn’t know the idiot Congresswoman was in a limo with the soldier’s mother. That isn’t a lie if you simply didn’t know something.

    Did you have something else in mind?

  79. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting bit of history about how we avoided defeat in Korea in 1950 and being pushed into the sea in the Pusan perimeter.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-americas-colonel-kurtz-beat-back-north-korea

  80. gallopingcamel says:

    @jim2,
    General Kelly’s recollection of what the “Empty Barrel” (Frederica Wilson) said at a dedication ceremony was labeled “not true” by the Sun Sentinel because of what you and I see as minor discrepancies. Here is their report:
    http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-reg-video-vindicates-frederica-wilson-20171020-story.html

    Fake News homes in on minor details so they can ignore Kelly’s main message.

    I listened to the long (nine minute) speech the “Empty Barrel” gave and felt the same disgust that General Kelly did. This self promoting bigot claimed to have been a school principal which made me wonder what harm she may have done to young people.

  81. jim2 says:

    @gallopingcamel

    I read Franken’s book (the world’s greatest senator, or some such), at least read enough of it before I threw it into the trash. In it, he claims to have a super-heavy-duty BS detector and can spot a lie on the surface of the Sun. Some other liberal on one of the talk shows said the same sort of thing. Both then go on to claim Trump or one of his associates or a conservative is lying about this or that. When I investigate, I find the libtard has twisted reality or attempted to make a lie out of ambiguity. To my way of thinking, that makes them the real liar.

  82. Larry Ledwick says:

    Things are getting interesting in North Korea if some recent reports turn out to be true.

    Reports are coming out that PRC is fed up with North Korea and tired of being embarrassed by them. Loss of face in Asia is a big deal – – –
    https://www.americanewshub.com/2017/10/22/another-missile-test-means-war-chinese-government-linked-academic-warns-north-korea/

    China is building a major highway that leads to North Korean border [perhaps to allow movement of military supplies?

    http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/652188/north-korea-news-trump-china-us-war-invasion-highway-border-jian-Shuangliao-Expressway

    From twitter:

    World-Events Live‏ @IdeologyWars 59 minutes ago

    #UPDATE: The USAF is preparing to possibly pass an order that will leave B-52 bombers with payloads on a 24/7 standby protocol, more to come if this develops. #NorthKorea

    World-Events Live‏ @IdeologyWars 5 hours ago

    #UPDATE: Today Operation Courageous Channel will begin as an exercise to simulate the evacuation of US families from the ROK #NorthKorea

    World-Events Live‏ @IdeologyWars 5 hours ago

    #BREAKING: President Trump says the US is “totally prepared” to go to war but says “…it would be nice if we didn’t have to? The answer is yes.” #NorthKorea

    THAAD is now operational in So. Korea
    NorthKoreaRealTime‏ @BuckTurgidson79 15 hours ago

    USFK officially completes THAAD battery unit setup in South Korea

    http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/10/22/0200000000AEN20171022003900320.html

    ===============

    World-Events Live‏ @IdeologyWars 21h21 hours ago

    93 character message on 8992 USB (Gage)
    [8992 Mhz is one of the USAirforce HF frequencies used for emergency action messages to strategic forces. We have no way of knowing what the EAM was about but 93 characters is unusually long for this type of message]
    [background info on the EAM messages and “so called” SKYKING messages.
    http://mt-milcom.blogspot.com/p/what-is-emergency-action-message-or-eam.html?m=1

    51 character EAM
    SR-71 pilot talking about Skyking messages
    SR-71 skyking

    ]

    World-Events Live‏ @IdeologyWars Oct 21

    A lot of SK and US air activity along the DMZ currently (Gage)

    News Breaker‏ @NewsBreaker101 Oct 21
    Replying to @NewsBreaker101

    #BREAKING: The #US E-8 JSTARS plane that went up is not for looking at missiles…it’s for counting tanks, artillery pieces on #DPRK border

    News Breaker‏ @NewsBreaker101 Oct 21
    Replying to @NewsBreaker101

    #BREAKING: #US DMZ Surveillance plane is up and heading towards the #DPRK #NorthKorean border, 2 #US and 1 #ROK planes heading towards #DPRK

    News Breaker‏ @NewsBreaker101 Oct 21
    Replying to @NewsBreaker101

    #BREAKING: #US E-8 Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System plane is up over #SouthKorea, likely tracking #DPRK #NorthKorea

    News Breaker‏ @NewsBreaker101 Oct 21
    Replying to @Amos8125 @fredwalton216

    2 US and 1 South Korean planes for tracking and surveillance are up heading for North Korean border, possibly increased DPRK activity

    News Breaker‏ @NewsBreaker101 Oct 21
    Replying to @NewsBreaker101

    BREAKING: #ROK #SouthKorean E7 Early Warning and Tracking Platform plane is up and heading towards the #DPRK #NorthKorea border

  83. Larry Ledwick says:

    Note tonight is a new moon night for what it is worth.

    From twitter:
    World-Events Live Retweeted
    Steve Herman‏Verified account @W7VOA Oct 20

    Tonight’s Nelson Report (a reputable newsletter on NE Asia): Removing personal assets from #ROK now advisable, say sr. admin. officials.

    World-Events Live Retweeted
    Strategic Sentinel‏Verified account @StratSentinel Oct 20

    #USSRonaldReagan Super Carrier has revealed herself off the #ROK Port of Busan. Showing current position as of 00:15 Zulu Oct. 21.

  84. gallopingcamel says:

    It seems unlikely that the Norks will be able to deliver a devastating sucker punch like the one by Japan on December 7, 1941.
    However it would be a mistake to underestimate them given some of the stunts they have already pulled off.

  85. gallopingcamel says:

    @jim2,
    Given that you are someone who reads books I strongly recommend “Breaking Point” by James Dale Davidson.

    In Chapter three he explains how a “Pimpocracy” like the US federal government operates.
    In Chapter twelve he does a pretty good hatchet job on “Global Warming”.

    The good news is that our Pimpocracy is under assault because Donald Trump can’t be bought by special interests. That is why most of our congressmen and senators (Democrat and Republican alike) are against him. There is nothing a corrupt politician hates more than an incorruptible POTUS. There are a few honest people left in Congress and they are easy to spot……..they are the ones who openly back Trump and his agenda.

    In Chapter three, Davidson also explains that bribing US politicians is probably the most lucrative business on the planet given that for each million in bribes you get $759 million while your mother is earning 0.25% on her investments.

    If Donald Trump’s tax plan goes through the biggest effect will be the elimination of 80,000 pages of tax breaks for the special interests. These can’t be quantified by the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) because it does not keep track of government corruption for obvious reasons.

    Maybe in his second term Donald Trump will replace the CBO with a “Ministry of Audit” similar to the “Control Yuan” in the Republic of China. The “Control Yuan” exists to make sure that corruption in the other three branches of government (executive, legislature and judiciary) is rooted out.

  86. Larry Ledwick says:

    The thing people do not recognize is that the CBO scores legislation strictly by the guide lines specified in the request for their scoring a piece of legislation, not on the bases of good accounting procedures or legitimate costs and benefits as the average citizen would measure things.

    CBO is used by Congress critters to produce numbers to their specifications. If they give the CBO good guidelines for evaluation they get good numbers back, if they define a narrow case for the scoring, they get a carefully tailored lie.

  87. Larry Ledwick says:

    Defense One is confirming one of the earlier tweets regarding B-52 alert preps. Barksdale is refurbishing the alert quarters for crews etc. but the actual move to 24 hour alert status has not been given.

    http://www.defenseone.com/threats/2017/10/exclusive-us-preparing-put-nuclear-bombers-back-24-hour-alert/141957/

  88. gallopingcamel says:

    @Larry Ledwick
    That link you provided suggests that any attempt at a nuclear sucker punch will be met with an overwhelming nuclear response. As I see it the Norks will only be able to launch one time. Within hours their ability to launch a second land based strike will be destroyed.

    But they have submarines…………………….

  89. Larry Ledwick says:

    Ooops – Houston we have a problem!
    Antarctica has been gaining ice for thousands of years according to Satellite altimiter measurements and ice core analysis. Far exceeding the ice loss from glaciers discharging ice.

    https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/nasa-study-mass-gains-of-antarctic-ice-sheet-greater-than-losses

  90. E.M.Smith says:

    Just a quick note: I’m running on a newly installed Devuan 1.0 64 bit on the Pi M3.

    Only problem so far is the (already known for a while…) typing a comment like this one, if long, causes it to hang. Sometimes I’ve fixed that by adding a dictionary. Not this time. Rest of it seems fine, though.

  91. E.M.Smith says:

    @Jim2:

    There are other forms of organization too. Prior to the rise of Empires, the voluntary association of clans was common. That was the Celtic system for most of their history up until the Romans crushed them. The Libertarian ideal picks up that pattern and carries it forward. Look at how FOSS (Free and Open Software…) projects are organized. Same basic thing. Someone is nominally “chief” but only as long as everyone else agrees with it. Folks get cranky about something, they split off into a new “fork” (tribe).

    But since Empire made that big splash the hierarchy has tended to dominate. It isn’t necessarily better, just more forceful… IMHO.

    BTW: The reason the news is 90%+ Trump Bashing (even if they have to make up stories) is that it’s part of the Soros push to “de-ligitimize’ and start a Color Revolution. Latest bit is the “European Values” “think tank” pushing the Russian Meme again and claiming folks appearing on RT are “useful idiots”…, funded by Soros. So Soros and his fellow travelers are going bat shit crazy trying to smear him with something. The wailing and moaning and pleading for Trump to “just apologize” so they can use that as a cudgel to beat him with “You admitted it ALL!!!!” lie… it’s just sick.

    What they have missed is that even hard core news junkies like me have just turned them off. I’m mostly watching RT, France24, and Sky these days. They at least cover some real news… Reuters I’ve found I’m skipping about 1/3 of the stories as either Trump Bashing or “happy talk” fluff. ABC / NBC / CBS have become such political advocates that even as “opposition research” it’s useless. They all say the same things at the same times, so why bother with any of them? You will get their main DNC assigned Talking Points 5 times a day even if you DON’T watch them! MSNBC and PBS left the rotation long long ago. Frankly, lately, were it not for Catalonia and the Northern Italy vote on independence I’d just not bother turning it on.

    @Larry:

    Some large fraction of all bitcoin stuff is in China. Somewhere over a majority IIRC. Look to China to know why Bitcoin changes…

    Glimpse? That thing’s more like a short novel… ;-)

    Per N.K. & @G.C.:

    The North Koreans have lousy subs, and we have one of THE greatest sub hunter abilities in the world. They’ve not demonstrated any ability to launch a nuke from a sub anyway, and they have a very limited number of nuclear warheads.

    Compare the USA where just ONE of our many boomers can flatten their whole country.

    BTW, N.K. nukes anything, it will not be hours, it will be 6 minutes flight time from boomer to target…

    @Larry:

    I almost choked on my toast when some arse came on the news claiming that their had been a horrible failure of Adele Penguins to reproduce. Seems they had to go too far looking for food as the ice was so thick and water so far away, the chicks were starving to death. This, of course, was due to “global warming”… What? Warming causes more ice and colder conditions? Who knew…

  92. Lionell Griffith says:

    “Warming causes more ice and colder conditions?”

    This is only the green blob expressing a belief in two universal causes.

    The first is no matter what the change in the weather, its cause is always the undefined “climate change”. As they use this term, it is a package deal of two truths, a non sequitur, and a misdirection.

    1. The climate is nothing but weather and weather always changes. TRUE
    2. Man has an impact (unquantified) on weather and is thus partially responsible for some (indeterminate part) of the changes in weather. TRUE
    3. Any change in the climate (weather) that is caused by man can and should be eliminated (without regard to the nature or magnitude of the change) by eliminating the actions of man. NON SEQUITUR
    4. If you identify 1 or 2 as true, you implicitly accept that 3 is true otherwise you are a “climate change denier”. MISDIRECTION, FALSE, and a NON SEQUITUR combined

    In fact, the meaning (reality reference) of the term “climate change” does not extent beyond 1 above. The rest are simply illegitimate tramp premises that are attached to the primary concept. The net effect of their inclusion destroys the primary concept thus making the totally an anti-concept. Since man thinks and communicates conceptually, an anti-concept destroys the ability for man to think or communicate. Which was the purpose behind creating the package deal in the first place.

    The second universal cause it that any whim or wish or desire can be fulfilled simply by exercising sufficient top down coercive power and control (brute force). The truth is that brute force can only stop things from happening, destroy things, and kill people. Without the ability to think and communicate, man cannot build. If he cannot build, the result is always despair, poverty, death, and destruction.

    Thus the two universal causes the green blob believes in are tightly joined and are mutually re-enforcing as an expression of a fundamental desire to destroy the good simply because it is good.

    No matter their words to the contrary, they do not mean well even at the cost of their own extinction.

  93. David A says:

    Larry, according to your NASA link the ice gain is NOT from increased snow;…
    “Zwally said that while other scientists have assumed that the gains in elevation seen in East Antarctica are due to recent increases in snow accumulation, his team used meteorological data beginning in 1979 to show that the snowfall in East Antarctica actually decreased by 11 billion tons per year during both the ERS and ICESat periods.”

  94. Mike says:

    Re: SKYKING “93 character message on 8992 USB (Gage)
    [8992 Mhz is one of the USAirforce HF frequencies used for emergency action messages to strategic forces. . . . ”

    That would be kHz, not MHz. We’re talking about HF band SSB voice messages. Haven’t played SWL for a while, but there used to be lots of interesting traffic on the aeronautical frequencies.

  95. Larry Ledwick says:

    Mike – yes KHz thanks for catching that.

    David you are taking the one local exception that they pointed out and trying to nullify a 10,000 year trend by citing a small area and a short period of time.
    The continent averages an ice gain of 0.7 inches a year over all. This is the text which follows your small snippet.

    They also used information on snow accumulation for tens of thousands of years, derived by other scientists from ice cores, to conclude that East Antarctica has been thickening for a very long time.

    “At the end of the last Ice Age, the air became warmer and carried more moisture across the continent, doubling the amount of snow dropped on the ice sheet, ” Zwally said.
    [ it is still warmer than it was 10,000 years ago ergo increased snow is still happening]

    The extra snowfall that began 10,000 years ago has been slowly accumulating on the ice sheet and compacting into solid ice over millennia, thickening the ice in East Antarctica and the interior of West Antarctica by an average of 0.7 inches (1.7 centimeters) per year. This small thickening, sustained over thousands of years and spread over the vast expanse of these sectors of Antarctica, corresponds to a very large gain of iceenough to outweigh the losses from fast-flowing glaciers in other parts of the continent and reduce global sea level rise.

    In summary the ice has been increasing “over all” for 10000 years. There are small areas in which the rate of increase has been reduced recently and IF that reduction CONTINUES at the same rate for 20-30 years [very big supposition] then the net reduction will get big enough to cancel out other gains.

    As usual they are using a linear trend to extrapolate into the future to postulate some future harm (maybe) in 20-30 years. When compared to a 10k year long term trend that is highly unlikely

  96. p.g.sharrow says:

    Soros just dumped $18billion into his NGO network. Half of the fortune he controls so this must be the do or die push to his revolution.I would expect a frenzy of activity from his minions. At least we will know them by the noise they make…pg

  97. E.M.Smith says:

    @P.G.:

    It is also usually the case that the “Kids of Power & Wealth” get permanent appointments to the “charities” into which the family fortune has been dumped, thus avoiding any tax and giving a lifetime (huge) salary.

    Yes, expect more activity, but also expect to see salaries going to family and friends…

    He funded “European Values” to find that RT appearances are by “useful idiots”. Part of why I love RT: They were running this bit, and a clip showing Boris Johnson parroting it… and then a clip of Boris’s Dad on RT ;-) Others they listed as RT Guests included John McCain…

    Just a wonderful bit…

    There’s a Soros – Russia war in progress. That’s why all the real useful idiots in Soros funded NGOs and Governments are flogging the “Russia Did It” dead horse so hard.

  98. p.g.sharrow says:

    Yes,
    I would think Trump should collude with Putin in this war against Soros and his revolutionary war to subvert the nations of the world and install his vision of One World Dictatorship…pg

  99. pouncer says:

    ‘Adele Penguins had to go too far looking for food as the ice was so thick and water so far away, was due to “global warming”… What?’

    Incoherence all around. I heard on NPR this weekend journalists declaring that Chinese cities that have depended for centuries — millennia — on the Chinese rivers and Chinese canals fed by melting Chinese glaciers are endangered because — due to climate change — the glaciers are now melting.

    Not melting faster. Not that snows come and go and ebb and flow and we’re in an “ebb” part of the cycle. Not that the population of Chinese cities is now growing and modern farms are now better or more fully irrigated and all are consuming more melt/river water than the glacier can produce. But that the cities that depend on the rivers of melt are threatened by melting.

    It’s radio so I can’t honestly report that this is said with a straight face. But the apparent lack of connection between claims is very distressing.

  100. Larry Ledwick says:

    Just throw this out here for consideration:
    James Comey secret twitter account apparently has been identified.

    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/10/wow-james-comey-reveals-secret-twitter-account-photo/

  101. Larry Ledwick says:

    On a Soros related note, Robert Muller apparently had some interesting investments (assuming all this is true).

    http://offendedamerica.com/robert-mueller-invested-hedge-funds-linked-russia-george-soros/

  102. E.M.Smith says:

    Well,

    As you might have guessed from my last nibble of a comment, today is “advance your software” day and I’m trying things.

    In large part this is being driven by the Broken EXT4 File System that some stoopid idiot decided ought to be “enhanced” in an incompatible way with no fallback mode possible. (Journalling was “improved” in some undetectable way, but IF an ext4 file system from a 3.x kernel world gets touched by a 4.x kernel world, it “improves” the journal in such a way that you can not read it on a 3.x kernal machine anymore.

    Well, if you have just ONE machine, update to a new kernel and never need to fall back, you will be just dandy; and it’s a “feature”. If, however, you need to fall back, you are screwed. Or if, like me, you move a USB drive between a few systems they ALL must be upgraded to the 4.x kernel or you are screwed on the 3.x machines.

    Consequently, I spent a good part of the weekend converting about 5 TB of disk drives back to ext3 file systems. (dump, format, restore…). Now that is not anywhere near the total. that’s just the ones that wander between systems. My main file server (with 10 TB of disk on it) is still old ext4 / kernel 3.x for most of it and one 2 TB volume of ext3 (newly converted this weekend) that I’d made on another system, then wanted to move to it for file serving… but had to remake it as ext3 since the ext4 was now borked… Sigh. (They ought to have simply named the changed version ext5, and noted it was an automatic conversion if you mounted an ext4 as ext5, but you could not convert back).

    OK, rant aside: So I’m now “rushed” to update systems to a 4.x kernel all in sync if possible. This is especially a PITA on the ARM chips as there are already some complicated holes to line up to get things going right. Like which instruction set, word length, etc. in what OS runs which applications on what hardware…

    Well, for what it’s worth, I’m looking to make the Pi M3 and Pi M2 all “straight from the box” Devuan by just unpacking their 1.0 production release. (Presently they are Raspian uplifted via the Devuan conversion that works wonderfully… but they were 3.x kernels). So I put the Devuan 1.0 arm64 version on the Pi M3 and it worked fine for the “internal only workstation”. Only problem is that the “spell checker” on FireFox can end up in very long CPU usage spins as it seems to have runnaway at some point. Oh, and downloads of files show as failed in the status window but in fact work fine if you look in the download directory. Basically “Firefox has issues”. BUT, for my internal only desktop, it’s not supposed to be browsing the general internet. So I’m OK with that.

    I’ve kept the “Headend” chip as an armhf 3.x kernel for now, as I need to keep it compatible with the distcc compile farm that are all armhf 32 bit instructions and they all need to move to the SAME release level of libraries and the SAME kernel major number at the same time. I’d wanted to move my “general workstation” off of the “Cluster Headend” and divide those two use cases anyway, so this is my “opportunity”. I’ll ‘remake the cluster’ on Devuan 4.x some other weekend or day.

    So, Pi M3 has a workable 64 bit “Workstation desktop” as long as you don’t need a browser for anything with a lot of spell checking… I’m good with that. It is also a 4.x kernel so I can use my various ext4 disks with it and with any other 4.x kernel systems. Which at present is mostly the Odroid XU4 (where I first started to notice the “disk drive VD problem” as any drive that touched it could not play well with others anymore…)

    Starting to see the Royal PITA caused by not just calling it ext5?…

    Now, today, right now, I’m typing this on the Odroid C2. Seems it was a 3.x kernel build for ALL of the Odrobian releases. Being arm64 folks are far slower to do the work to advance the release level of things like the kernel and major applications. The majority of effort goes into the dominant builds in use and those are all armhf at the moment. Generally, being a few months behind (so the team does armhf then when it’s working, moved over to the arm64 and starts working on it…) isn’t an issue. Unless, of course, the new system makes your disks incompatible with the old kernel… Sigh. OK, NO Odroibian can be used. Got it. On to Armbian…

    Well, Armbian is better. They at least have something that is 4.x kernel for the arm64 C2. Unfortunately, it’s in the “new” or testing branch… I decided to give a try anyway.

    So as of now I’m running an TESTING_Armbian_Ubuntu_xenial_arm64 on the Odroid C2. That’s what I’m using to type this.

    The Good News:

    It all installed simply and cleanly and booted just fine.

    It is NOT running MATE by default, but the much lighter weight XFCE desktop.

    Chromium is the default browser, but I was able to install Firefox-esr too.

    Firefox-esr works… sort of. Seems they detected the spelling spin so it just doesn’t check spelling. Even with that flag set. (Dr. Dr. it hurts when I spell check! “Then don’t spell check!”)

    The Not So Good:

    Spell checking doesn’t work in Firefox.

    I like LXDE more than XFCE (but I can live with XFCE until I get time to add LXDE)

    Being on the bleeding edge testing branch of Ubuntu Xenial arm64, risk that Devuan won’t properly “uplift” is higher. But I’ll try it later anyway.

    OK, so as of now, with some minor “issues”, I’ve got 2 of my major systems running on 4.x kernels and arm64 instruction sets, plus the XU4 on 4.9 kernel with armhf instruction set. “Later” I’ll see if I can find an armhf 4.x image that works on both so they can participate in armhf cluster things… and / or have a FireFox that works right… I’m pretty sure the Pi M2 Devuan 1.0 is exactly that, and that their might be an Armbian build that could work on the C2 (but I don’t care if there isn’t).

    So next up, the XU4. It is running an Armbian 4.9 kernel but needs a Devuan “uplift”. IFF that works, only the Orange Pi file server is still back on a 3.x kernel (along with the stand alone Alpine based DNS server that has no disk, so I don’t care…) and I have a workaround for moving files “en mass” between the desktop and the file server with that ext3 file system 2 TB disk now.

    Getting a better flavor of why Sys Admin types have curse words for folks who ship backward-incompatible “upgrades” and don’t warn you / block it from automatically happening? Sigh. Copy of about 5 TB of disk two times to get it back on ext3 was bad enough, but trying to align the kernel level on 7 different architechture systems from 3 different vendors for a “new” kernal is just a royal PITA. (Pi B+ armel, Pi M2 armhf, Pi M3 arm64, Odroid C1 armhf, Odroid XU4 armhf, Odroid C2 arm64, Orange Pi armhf)

    Have I mentioned lately what I think ought to be done to people who ship automagically upgrading things that become incompatible with the rest of the world? Does “walk funny” give a clue? Grrr…..

    BTW, this will also bite anyone who has an ext4 USB drive or thumb drive that they use to move data around. Stick it into your hot shot friends new box to copy a few things off, it become unusable back on your own slightly older system.. So be forwarned. Make any “data mover” disks or thumbdrives ext3 or some other file system. At least until everyone you know has converted to 4.x kernels.

  103. E.M.Smith says:

    Well, I did the “uplift” of the Armbian on the XU4 and it’s working. Still has the video composting “shuffle / jitter” on dragging large windows, but that’s the core video driver not being used for compositing issue of the base OS. Over time that ought to be added as someone familiar with this newer video core takes on that work.

    There were some various odd error messages during the uplift, but it looks like nothing really serious (mostly complaining about lack of certificates as I think I didn’t install the Devuan certificate layer first…)

    Oh, and at first opening of the LXDE window the cursor is invisible. I just move ‘left / down / left /down” until the icon in the lower left corner flickers showing the cursor is over it, then open the menu and pick either a terminal window or a browser. Soon as one of them opens, the cursor shows up.

    I’m willing to live with that very manageable quirk for 8 cores of Zoom! on a Devuan system ;-)

  104. Larry Ledwick says:

    How to check online photos for manipulation and deceptive edits.

    https://www.popsci.com/use-photo-forensics-to-spot-faked-images

  105. beththeserf says:

    Came across this, some links connecting Soros with Antifa.
    View story at Medium.com

  106. Paul Hanlon says:

    Wow Chiefio,

    I’m in awe. I bought an ODroid C2, and I now have it up and running as a https server / NFS. I’m hoping to start a blog further down the line (Ha, I might even host it from the C2), and I’ll document the things I’m messing around with.

    I also bought 6 Orange Pi Zeros (eur9 apiece), and an eight way network switch. They’re a very capable little computer, quad core chip with Mali400 GPU, 512MB RAM, onboard wifi, ethernet and USB. I want to see if I can set them up as a mini cluster, and if it look workable, I’ll get more.

  107. beththeserf says:

    Dang, can’t seem to get the link, so printing some of the text: Sorry it’s lengthy.

    …’Few wealthy people ever admit to the dirty things they choose to do with their money, including funding terrorism and professional rioters. However, I have found a few leads of varying quality (some are more vague than others). All links are dated 2017.’


    Recent video of Antifa members protesting not getting paid as promised, chanting “Soros”

    riseup.net — funded by Soros charity and private donations
    – used by Antifa/ARA* worldwide as email server, web host. All of their email and web addresses end with “riseup.net”
    – owners on this site hide behind names of birds

    http://dailycaller.com/2017/07/07/soros-funded-militant-group-claims-german-contingent-at-g20-protests/

    – “Refuse Fascism” — Antifa alias (one of several)
    – One of their sponsors is Alliance for Global Justice, funded by Soros

    http://dailycaller.com/2017/02/03/look-who-funds-the-group-behind-the-call-to-arms-at-milos-berkeley-event/

    – More evidence of Antifa connection with Alliance for Global Justice: “According to its most recent 990 tax form, Alliance for Global Justice (AfGJ) received $2.2 million in funding for the fiscal year ending in March 2016.

    One of the group’s biggest donors is the Tides Foundation, a non-profit funded by billionaire progressive philanthropist George Soros. Tides gave AfGJ $50,000.”

    http://www.afa.net/the-stand/culture/2017/04/antifa-and-the-looney-left/

  108. E.M.Smith says:

    @Paul Hanlon:

    Nothing to be in awe of. Just been doing unix and linux installs for about 35 years. After a few thousand, you get fast at it :-)

    On those Orange Pi One boards, the limiting factor will be heat. I did a posting on that. So get the biggest heat sinks you can on them if you expect to run a fully loaded cluster. If just modest load playing, letting them heat throttle is ok. Just realize compute jobs that slam cores to 100% will rapidly have the clock slowing to limit temperature if no heatsinks.

    BTW , I’ve thought of setting up a light weight cluster over WiFi using them or similar. The WiFi would limit total coms speed but for modest communication jobs, you can have many nodes without needing a 48 or 96 port switch (that costs a fortune).

  109. tom0mason says:

    People here may be interested in seeing this Raspberry Pi laptop kit —
    https://www.elektor.com/pi-top-diy-laptop-kit-for-raspberry-pi-de

    Not that cheap but looks nice :)

  110. Larry Ledwick says:

    Another example of urban farming in “farm warehouses” using artificial soil and mutually supportive systems (one small step toward space habitats).

    http://www.livingit.euronews.com/2017/10/03/fishtanks-and-coffee-are-the-new-soil

  111. tom0mason says:

    Ooops that’s the German keyboard version, you want this link —
    https://www.elektor.com/pi-top-diy-laptop-kit-for-raspberry-pi-us

  112. Larry Ledwick says:

    On climate this showed up on twitter this morning.
    climatefallacy‏ @climatefallacy 21 hours ago
    Replying to @1MichaelWittman @EcoSenseNow

    Canada is cooling. The USA is on a confirmed 80-year cooling trend. It was hotter in the 1930s according to all ground temperature data.

    Following links I found this page which is interesting. Greenland ice sheet is well above its 1981-2010 mean at 540 Gt

    http://beta.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget

  113. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry:

    Interesting dig…

    @Tom0mason:

    Looks nice. It’s that high res screen, 10 hour battery, and little competition that makes the price high. I’d love to have one, but really, a Chromebook at about $180 has more power and is easily converted to uboot / Linux… I go around about that choice once a quarter or so ;-)

    It’s easy to get laptop lust and then go down that rabbit hole… “Someday” I’ll do it. I was about ready to “go for it” when the spousal Macbook died (failure of SSD) and I inherited it. It’s presently running MacOS on a dongle (mini-SD card) so ‘pauses’ when it swaps … which it does too often. I’m thinking I’ll put a linux on a dongle and give that a go… whenever I get time…

    OTOH, tossing a Pi M4 (whenever it comes out) into that case would likely go faster and the savings in time pay for the kit. We’ll see… likely about next March…

  114. Larry Ledwick says:

    Per recent discussions about the language fragmentation in America and specifically in California.

    https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/census-bureau-446-california-dont-speak-english-home-356-texas-345-nm

  115. Larry Ledwick says:

    Very interesting new DDOS method starting to show up. The bad actors “chop” the attack into brief overwhelming bursts then jump to a new target. This results in the botnet being fully mobilized right from the beginning of the burst instead or ramping up.

    [wonder if this is a timing attack where all the bot net nodes have a time sync for the start of the attack via NTP for example and a list of sites to attack ahead of time. Once the attack is triggered it just walks down the list at a pre-determined step rate? -Or – each of the bots checks periodically for the existence of some signal and if it sees that signal, jumps to the next predetermined victim]

    https://www.incapsula.com/blog/pulse-wave-ddos-pins-down-multiple-targets.html

  116. Larry Ledwick says:

    Narrative of what happened in the Nigerian Ambush.
    Looks like an intentional ambush and a bit of over confidence (target lock) on a high value target kept the team in the field too long and the opposition had time to prepare an ambush.

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/died-fighting-brothers-niger-ambush-survivor-fallen-us/story?id=50670787

  117. p.g.sharrow says:

    @Larry: this must be the ISIS or like actor effort to crash the main DNS servers that my grandson brought to my attention this morning. An act of warfare against the west by someone,..pg

  118. Paul Hanlon says:

    @Chiefio,
    Thanks for the tip. Duly noted. I got the network switch for eur40 from Ali Express. It comes with POE enabled, and a 48V transformer. The blurb on the OPi Zero said it was POE ready. What they really mean is they soldered the + and – tips on the Ethernet socket.

    To actually get POE, you have to solder a Buck converter between those pins and a couple of pads on the board. I just thought that with the board being so light, I could ‘fix’ the ethernet plugs to something, and they would be able to support the weight of the board. If I can find a Buck converter that doesn’t look naff, and isn’t the same size as the board, I might still do it. Just for the ‘coolness’ factor. A ‘hot-swappable’ one-wire board :-)).

    Also, there isn’t an OpenCL implementation for the Mali400 GPU, but it can speak OpenGL, which would give access to the shaders. The Mali400 chipset is supposed to be better than the VideocoreIV on the RasPi, which runs at 16GFlops (float operations / second), so OK, it’s never going to be a real “supercomputer”, but just the learning about all the principals of supercomputing has to be worth the eur100 pricetag.

  119. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry:

    Yeah, damn near 45% non-English speakers and yet not a single one an illegal alien voter… It would be interesting to do an audit cross footer of:

    Percent of population voting in California. Percent Spanish language (or other non-English language) ballots. Known legal immigration… and the discrepancy is???…

    Per Botnets:

    A sync signal gives away your location (or your trigger location) and provides a method to disrupt (identify the trigger packets and block), but gives better sync.

    The “use the clock, Luke” method has much more resilience and the autonomy makes stopping it very hard, but at the risk of a broader spike as some folks have lousy clocks.

    You can likely fingerprint which method just by the sharpness of the ramp-up / ramp-down. Inside 1 second for 99.9%+ of them? Sync based. Ramp up with a few stragglers each way for minutes? Clock based.

    Per the “Ambush”:

    Gee, a small team out in the field suffers a standard part of warfare, the Ambush. THE thing everyone trains for. THE thing you always try to have on your side, and always try to avoid. So fundamental even I know about it. SO it must be Trump’s fault… /sarc;

    @P.G.:

    One of the reasons I run a caching DNS server of my own. IF the DNS servers of record go down, I still have my usual connections cached. I set the timeout longer than normal for commercial sites (a day or two) just because most attacks don’t last longer than that. IFF it ever became an issue (if any of these stupid DDS attacks actually stopped anything I used), I’d just do DNS lookups on things I regularly use (when service was restored) and hard code them into my DNS Hosts table. I’d have to do maintenance on it whenever the vendor changed their numbers, but since that’s like once per decade per company, not a big load.

    I probably ought to do a dozen of the major sites I use and at least record their numbers…

    root@odroidxu4:/# nslookup bigcharts.marketwatch.com
    Server:		192.168.10.254
    Address:	192.168.1.254#53
    
    Non-authoritative answer:
    bigcharts.marketwatch.com	canonical name = bigchartsus.wsj.akadns.net.
    Name:	bigchartsus.wsj.akadns.net
    Address: 205.203.131.33
    
    root@odroidxu4:/# nslookup aol.com
    Server:		192.168.10.254
    Address:	192.168.1.254#53
    
    Non-authoritative answer:
    Name:	aol.com
    Address: 149.174.107.100
    Name:	aol.com
    Address: 64.12.249.135
    Name:	aol.com
    Address: 149.174.149.73
    Name:	aol.com
    Address: 149.174.110.105
    Name:	aol.com
    Address: 207.200.74.55
    
    root@odroidxu4:/# nslookup wordpress.com
    Server:		192.168.10.254
    Address:	192.168.1.254#53
    
    Non-authoritative answer:
    Name:	wordpress.com
    Address: 192.0.78.17
    Name:	wordpress.com
    Address: 192.0.78.9
    

    That’s about 90% of my day ;-) I can skip the advertising IP numbers ;-)

    Really, though:

    There are the 13 (last I checked) Root Servers, then a gazillion servers in layers down from there. Can’t take ’em all out; which is why these things are mostly just a “things got a little slow… DNS attack you say?”… Add your own local cache server and you don’t find out about it until someone tells you the next day… or you do something way out of character (hit a bunch of new sites for you).

    For about $10 for a Dinky SBC (ANY of them is overkill…) and a few hours of set-up time (including unboxing, installing the OS, playing, posting about playing… ;-) you get a more robust failure mode to DDS attacks on DNS servers.

    There’s a reason that was what I did very early on several years ago.

  120. Another Ian says:

    Terse description of a prime ministerial family!

    “The Turnbulls couldn’t run a piss-up in a brewery”

    Link at

    http://joannenova.com.au/2017/10/aussies-eating-junk-to-get-better-weather-old-coal-plant-increases-730000-in-two-years/#comment-1956852

  121. Larry Ledwick says:

    How families are coping in Puerto Rico after their already creaky industrial society was shattered by the hurricane.

    “It is like stepping back in time”

  122. jim2 says:

    In another blow to the Chamber of Commerce Party, Flake’s out.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/24/flake-retiring-after-2018-244114

  123. p.g.sharrow says:

    @jim2; one more swamp rat running for the exit as the people begin the draining of the swamp…pg

  124. E.M.Smith says:

    @P.G. & Jim2:

    I see these things in the news, presented as OMG! End Of The World As We Know It!!!

    Yet I just see swamp rats running from the exterminator…

    Watching the “media elite” not get it is just gravy….

    @Another Ian:

    Tee Hee!!!

    Though given how far off the rails y’all have gone, I’m glad I didn’t emigrate there in the ’80s when I was thinking about it. I was “down under” then and had the opportunity to sign up for a local job and move there. Given now things have changed, I’m glad I didn’t. Nothing on you, mate, just how things have gone…

    @Larry:

    Why I have my kits and preparedness stuff…

  125. Larry Ledwick says:

    File this under “What could possibly go wrong?” with massive immigration from countries where massive violence is the norm not the exception.

    http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/10/25/half-migrants-italy-mentally-ill/

    Reminds me of the 1980’s and 1990’s when Cuba dumped their jails into those they allowed to leave Cuba during the Mariel boatlift. from Cuba in 1980. over the next 12 years until 1992 US violent crime peaked to its highest level.

    Layered on top of that were the newly expanded violent drug trafficing coming out of the Caribbean as Colombian Drug Cartels broadened their influence.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/23/dominican-republic-emerge_n_2533210.html

    I suspect Europe will be seeing the same sort of spike in violence over the next couple decades as these folks habituated to violent solutions to problems permeate their society.

  126. Larry Ledwick says:

    A little article on the Cheyenne Mountain Complex, given all the changes in the world it is being refurbished and it is now fashionable to talk about again.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/space-defense-inside-colorado-cheyenne-mountain-air-force-station/

    Both blast doors were closed in October 1973 at the onset of the Arab invasion of Israel when they bumped our DEFCON up to DEFCON 3 on October 25 1973 in the early days of the war.

    During normal operations they would leave one door open, and only close the outer door while the inner door was open to allow personnel and equipment to pass through the entry area between the two doors into the interior chambers of the complex. I was on duty when the first reports came out about the invasion of Israel and they were trying to make sense of the initial reports. It was kind of interesting to hear the major radio stations making announcements that military personnel should contact their commands and some personnel were being instructed to report for duty.

  127. p.g.sharrow says:

    @EMSmith; 1982 380SEL 3.839L engine…pg

  128. Larry Ledwick says:

    This is also interesting – seems that the Mandalay shooter removed the hard drive from his laptop (so far it has not been located) this is slowing down a forensic history of his computer actions prior to the shooting.

    http://abcnews.go.com/US/las-vegas-shooters-laptop-missing-hard-drive/story?id=50709285

    Then we see this item that his brother has been arrested on child porn charges (which incidentally will create justification to do a deep dive on all his computers which might turn up info on his brother.

    http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/10/25/las-vegas-mass-shooter-stephen-paddocks-brother-arrested-for-child-porn.html

  129. Larry Ledwick says:

    Not a big surprise to folks here I suspect but an interesting interview by Sharyl Attkisson

    http://fullmeasure.news/news/cover-story/bucking-the-system

  130. p.g.sharrow says:

    Interesting Larry, First time I’ve heard of this congressional payola system to fund political party slush funds. Kind of “hard” to believe how poor politicians become multi millionaires after a few terms. Small wonder why they can “command” hundred thousand dollar speaking fees from special interests…pg

  131. Another Ian says:

    Latest fake news

    “The rise of fake skeptics who “change their minds” about climate change”

    http://joannenova.com.au/2017/10/the-rise-of-fake-skeptics-who-change-their-minds-about-climate-change/

  132. Another Ian says:

    Larrry

    I saw a headline the other day that London is now rated as more dangerous than New York

  133. Another Ian says:

    A nickname problem our federal treasurer doesn’t have!

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2017/10/willyporno.html

    And comments

  134. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well if this turns out to be true changes the narrative a bit on the Mandalay Bay shooting suspect.

    http://truepundit.com/dea-wiretap-led-to-investigation-of-las-vegas-shooter-stephen-paddock/

  135. Larry Ledwick says:

    From Twitter:
    Mike Cernovitch is making this assertion:

    Mike Cernovich 🇺🇸‏Verified account @Cernovich 4 hours ago

    Vegas shooter was trafficking firearms for Islamic terrorists in Philippines, and children.

  136. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well this will be interesting:
    From Twitter:
    Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump 4 hours ago

    The long anticipated release of the #JFKFiles will take place tomorrow. So interesting!

    This will totally dominate the news cycle for about 36-48 hours I suspect
    [ the next question is what else is going to be going on behind the curtain while the media is in tunnel vision mode with the JFK files? This would be a perfect diversion for some other activity which would be lost in the shuffle if announced on Friday while JFK is hogging the coverage]

  137. Larry Ledwick says:

    Hmmmmm timing?

    Justice Dept lifts gag order on informant for the Uranium One scandal tonight just hours before the JFK files go public. Guess which is going to get covered in the mainstream media? This will allow Congress to get into these details without being micromanaged by the media and screaming DNC advocates.

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/10/25/justice-department-provides-fbi-uranium-one-informant-to-congress.html

  138. Larry Ledwick says:

    We are supposed to get 60% chance of snow (first measurable snow of the season here in Denver Metro area)

    Windy.com shows it will shift to a strong north wind about 6:00 in the morning.

    This will be interesting – hit 83 today, forecasting a 50 deg F drop to tomorrow’s highs

    https://www.windy.com/?800h,40.167,-105.102,5

    Looks like snow will start near 2:00 pm local time in the west metro area.

  139. gallopingcamel says:

    This is what “Draining The Swamp” looks like.

    Departing swamp creatures like Flake and Corker will say ugly things about Trump but will they vote against tax reform? If they do they will find out where they stand with voters in America.

  140. Larry Ledwick says:

    And China is telling us what they have planned for the world – their complete domination of all other nations.

    http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2017/10/25/5-reasons-president-xis-speech-shows-china-threat-america/

  141. Larry Ledwick says:

    A little background context on the JFK assassination for those of you too young to remember the political environment of that time.

    Dick Morris lunch alert video
    [ http://www.dickmorris.com/jfk-assassination-lbj-knew-dropped-lunch-alert/ ]

    One thing that no one is mentioning here is that this release was mandated in 1992 legislation and Trump is only fulfilling that mandate (although he does have control over the fine timing of that release.)

  142. Larry Ledwick says:

    JFK docs have been released (although some have been withheld or have significant redactions)
    It will take months to go through all this stuff but some interesting snips are showing up on twitter.

    The archives
    https://www.archives.gov/research/jfk/2017-release

  143. Larry Ledwick says:

    A few more of the early finds:

  144. Larry Ledwick says:

    On a similar note regarding the FBI, and their improper use of surveillance.

    https://www.redstate.com/streiff/2017/05/26/fbi-illegally-unmasked-us-citizens-and-shared-their-inform/

  145. p.g.sharrow says:

    Early exhibits of CIA/Dark state manipulations of reporters/journalists news feed. Also working with organized crime to facilitate their management of the body politic as per their operations manual. This dump may well start the disintegration of the informational roadblock that the CIA has been creating since their first operation in Roswell in 1949.
    The charter for the establishment of the CIA prohibits them conducting secret operations within the Territory of United States. They have been a rouge operation since their first month of operations and it would seem that they have corrupted some amount of the FBI as well as the Department of State.
    Again the Beast strikes at the Dark State of the Elites. The Internet will spread this far and wide. As they say the cat is out of the bag, The choke hold on the main stream media is circumvented…pg

  146. Larry Ledwick says:

    All sorts of bits and pieces in that release – this stuff will feed conspiracy theories for the next 50 years.

    In the 1970’s, I worked with a guy that had lived in Dallas at the time of the assassination and had tried to self investigate after it happened. He told stories of finding strange blacked out cars parked outside his home watching him and finally he got sufficiently scared to move away from Dallas. It was clear he thought there was a real threat to his safety, he was very reluctant to talk about it until he knew you really well, but he implied he did not know who was behind the surveillance, FBI, CIA or the Mob, but I got the impression he was honestly scared and decided to walk away from it all.

    Sam Giancanna Jr.’s book “double cross” peddled the idea it was a CIA hit by organized crime connections, and that Lee H. Oswald was a useful fool socialist used as a patsy. Ever since reading the book I have been inclined to lean toward that sort of explaination, of lots of self interested actors each facilitating the event but perhaps unaware of all of the back story.

    I always thought Marina was likely a Soviet agent of influence over LHO, and dirty Dallas Cops on the Mafia payroll likely were involved too.

    Our family happened to hear the assassination of Lee Harvey Oswald as it happened live on the radio. We were running late for church services and Dad had the car radio on listening to the live coverage of the Perp walk as they brought LHO out of the Dallas PD. We had just pulled into the only parking place he could find and as he reached for the knob of the radio to turn it off the shots were fired by Ruby. We sat in stunned silence in the car listening to the immediate aftermath that he had been shot and was being loaded in the ambulance, then went into church service.

    I remember thinking to my self that we knew something no one else in the congregation knew at that time. I was in 8th grade at the time, and it was sort of my coming of age as far as world affairs, having just gone through the Cuban missile crisis the year before.

    That is when I became a news junky and started trying to figure out the back story on events and political spin coverage.

  147. jim2 says:

    RE: The Hostile Universe, this is the sort of thing that could bring an end to humans:

    “”It’s long been theorized that such objects exist — asteroids or comets moving around between the stars and occasionally passing through our solar system — but this is the first such detection,” Chodas added. “So far, everything indicates this is likely an interstellar object, but more data would help to confirm it.””

    https://www.space.com/38580-interstellar-object-spotted-comet-asteroid-mystery.html

  148. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry:

    Look on the bright side: it isn’t a rogue planet and it doesn’t glow…

    Having a rogue gas giant wander by, or a brown dwarf doing 100,000 MPH whiz through and dragging a bunch of the TNOs / Oort cloud through the inner solar system with it, would really mess up your weekend plans….

  149. jim2 says:

    @Jim2TheNewLarry says: We do know that stars get ejected from globular clusters, so it’s not beyond reason a rogue star could come our way some day.

  150. llanfar says:

    Naive #Americans Fall for the #Fantasy of #JFK #Assassination #Documents Dump Revealing the Truth

    [Reply: This link is giving a 404 not found message… -E.M.Smith]

  151. p.g.sharrow says:

    Looks to me that this thing is in an orbit of some kind. I think I would be looking for lt’s big brother or parent! The conditions of our solar system point to some LARGE errant that periodically passes thru. Ancient writings call for such a thing that passes thru at the asteroid belt…pg

  152. jim2 says:

    @p.g.sharrow

    It seems if the automated telescopes spotted this thing it would have also spotted its dad.

  153. Larry Ledwick says:

    Ever since I saw discussions of planets occasionally getting entirely ejected from solar systems after unfortunate interactions with Jupiter sized and larger gas giant planets. There must be billions of hypervelocity “pin ball” planets and rogue brown dwarfs zipping around the universe on journeys that are not gravitationally bound to parent galaxies. The only reason we don’t detect a lot of them, would be due to their low infrared signature and their short residence time in our area of space during their high velocity transit of our region.

    Hubble has documented stellar sized objects zooming along at million miles per hour velocities so there must be tens of thousands or millions of smaller objects doing the same thing.

  154. Larry Ledwick says:

    In fact a case could probably be made that the one significant way that heavy elements (Fe and heavier) get distributed around the universe is not long term drift of interstellar gas but high velocity cool object movement. A single rogue planet or brown dwarf could transport a very significant quantity of heavy elements far across the galaxy.

    For example the recent gravity wave news about the observed merging of two neutron stars confirmed that such events produce the heavy noble metals like gold and platinum.
    The detected merger probably produced about 200 Earth masses of pure gold, and maybe 500 Earth masses of platinum and the debris cloud is expanding at a significant fraction of the speed of light.

    https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/10/16/16464716/ligo-gravitational-wave-neutron-star-merger-gold-alchemy

    http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/16/557557544/astronomers-strike-gravitational-gold-in-colliding-neutron-stars

  155. Pingback: W.O.O.D. – 27 October 2017 | Musings from the Chiefio

  156. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry:

    So you are saying that we didn’t waste $Billions on the LIGO detector to find something essentially useless… we instead invented a Great Precious Metals Detector? (Now we just need the FTL mining ships to go get it… sigh…)

  157. Paul Hanlon says:

    An interesting thread of comments, in an interesting article, regarding the IMF moving over to a “Distributed Ledger Sytem”, which from what I can see will be some form of blockchain technology, in order to replace the dollar as a reserve currency. Gail Combs weighs in, as well.

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2017/10/26/president-trump-and-secretary-mnuchin-continue-toward-main-street-parallel-banking-system/#comment-4538595

  158. E.M.Smith says:

    @Paul Hanlon:

    Yes, interesting article.

    Couple of points about block chain vs cryptocurrency and SDRs.

    1) SDRs are not made of nothing. Major Members of the IMF must deposit a mix their own currencies. Those become the reserves on which SDRs are based. So an SDR is a basket filled with some Euros, $US, Yen, £, Yuan. It isn’t fiat currency and it isn’t cryptocurrency. Oh, and it’s also only really used for settling accounts between national central banks. Only really large and secure countries are approved as SDR reserve currencies. It’s been this way for a very long time already.

    Early on there was a deposit of currency and gold, but the present basket definition looks to be only currencies. ( Wonder where the deposited gold went?…)

    http://info.sharpspixley.com/uploads/WorldOfficialGoldHoldingsasofApril2016IFS.pdf

    Says they still have 2814 tons of it… Perhaps you still must pony up some gold to become an IMF member but it isn’t used in calculating the SDR price anymore…

    http://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2016/08/01/14/51/Special-Drawing-Right-SDR

    The SDR is neither a currency, nor a claim on the IMF. Rather, it is a potential claim on the freely usable currencies of IMF members. Holders of SDRs can obtain these currencies in exchange for their SDRs in two ways: first, through the arrangement of voluntary exchanges between members; and second, by the IMF designating members with strong external positions to purchase SDRs from members with weak external positions.

    In addition to its role as a supplementary reserve asset, the SDR serves as the unit of account of the IMF and some other international organizations.

    Basket of currencies determines the value of the SDR

    The value of the SDR was initially defined as equivalent to 0.888671 grams of fine gold—which, at the time, was also equivalent to one US dollar. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973, the SDR was redefined as a basket of currencies. Effective October 1, 2016 the SDR basket consists of the US dollar, euro, the Chinese renminbi, Japanese yen, and British pound sterling.

    So SDRs are basically just a way for the major trading countries to rapidly settle accounts without needing to print up a lot of new currency nor ship boats of gold around the world.

    2) Block Chain has lots of uses outside of cryptocurrencies. It can make non-repudiation of contracts and verified transaction ledgers easily provably secure. The use of a block chain ledger by the IMF is just a way to speed up transactions and validate them securely. It is not being used to make any cryptocurrency nor to make SDRs. I don’t really care if the banks make their ledger entries via ink in a book and with all sorts of protocols to assure they are a valid record of an exchange between two banks; or if they use a computer driven block chain ledger with authentication and non-repudiation built in. It only changes procedures internal to the bank.

    In Conclusion

    I’m not very worried about the world moving to using a basket of the 5 major trading partners currencies as a unit for settling exchange imbalances and as a unit of financial reserves. It will not result in the demise of the $US (as we are a big part of the basket…) nor will it end the world as we know it today. In some ways, it smooths things out. (So, for example, a massive oil price hike that in the 1970s sent the value of the $US reeling and disrupted global banking and trade would be far less able to do that with a basket of currencies)

    So if the USA suddenly needs a few $Billion of Yuan to pay China for a load of cheap imports, it can drop some SDRs on the IMF and pick up the Yuan to pay China. All without whacking the $US by having several $Billion suddenly go POOF! or be printed…

    Hope that helps…

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