22 Feb 2019-nCoV / SARS-CoV-2 / Covid-19 Corona Virus Pandemic

We are now in Pandemic land, with community infections of unknown origin in several countries.

To see the prior postings, back up one here:


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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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190 Responses to 22 Feb 2019-nCoV / SARS-CoV-2 / Covid-19 Corona Virus Pandemic

  1. Another Ian says:

    “And then there is this little-known fact: Some Chinese researchers are in the habit of selling their laboratory animals to street vendors after they have finished experimenting on them.”


  2. Another Ian says:

    Check who wrote the link article

  3. Pingback: Political and Medical System Type Discussions of Covid-19 Pandemic | Musings from the Chiefio

  4. E.M.Smith says:

    S. KOREA has just jumped another 166 cases to 602


    That’s exactly the kind of scenario that has me pulling in contacts now instead of waiting. I’d bet they hit 1000 in the next week…

  5. Pingback: W.O.O.D. – 23 February 2020 | Musings from the Chiefio

  6. Larry Ledwick says:

    The details of the R0 without extraordinary efforts to control contacts is very sobering.


    Early epidemiological assessment of the transmission potential and virulence of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan City: China, 2019-2020

    Background: Since the first cluster of cases was identified in Wuhan City, China, in December, 2019, 2019-nCoV has rapidly spread across China as well as caused multiple introductions in 25 countries as of February, 2020. Despite the scarcity of publicly available data, scientists around the world have made strides in estimating the magnitude of the epidemic, the basic reproduction number, and transmission patterns. Recently more evidence suggests that a substantial fraction of the infected individuals with the novel coronavirus show little if any symptoms, which suggest the need to reassess the transmission potential of emerging disease. The present study aimed to estimates of the transmissibility and virulence of 2019-nCov in Wuhan City, China, by reconstructing the underlying transmission dynamics. Methods: We employ statistical methods and publicly available epidemiological datasets to jointly derive estimates of transmissibility and severity associated with the novel coronavirus. For estimation, the daily series of laboratory-confirmed nCov cases and deaths in Wuhan City and epidemiological data of Japanese evacuees from Wuhan City on board government-chartered flights were used. Results: We found that our posterior estimates of basic reproduction number (R) in Wuhan City, China in 2019-2020 is calculated to be as high as 7.05 (95%CrI: 6.11-8.18) and the enhanced public health intervention after January 23rd in 2020 has declined R to 3.24 (95%CrI: 3.16-3.32), with the total number of infections (i.e. cumulative infections) estimated at 983006 (95%CrI: 759475-1296258) in Wuhan City, raising the proportion of infected individuals to 9.8% (95%CrI: 7.6-13.0%). We also found that most recent crude infection fatality ratio (IFR) and time-delay adjusted IFR is estimated to be 0.07% (95% CrI: 0.05%-0.09%) and 0.23% (95%CrI: 0.17-0.30%), which is several orders of magnitude smaller than the crude CFR at 4.06% Conclusions: We have estimated key epidemiological parameters of the transmissibility and virulence of 2019-nCov in Wuhan, China, 2019-2020 using an ecological modelling approach. The power of our approach lies in the ability to infer epidemiological parameters with quantified uncertainty from partial observations collected by surveillance systems.

    Click to access 2020.02.12.20022434v1.full.pdf

  7. Bill In Oz says:

    South Korea has declared Code Red ( the highest level ) because of Corona virus outbreak

    Confirmed infections 602

    Suspected infections : 54,630 !

    Critical 12

    There are now infected persons in all cities & provinces

    And 6 people have died.


    Looking on mass media sites the only one I can find reporting this is the Guardian and it is a bit out of date.

  8. Larry Ledwick says:


  9. Gail Combs says:


  10. Larry Ledwick says:

    @ Bill In Oz says:
    23 February 2020 at 11:16 am

    It is getting reported here in America – although little detail.


    South Korea on highest alert as virus cases rise

    President Moon Jae-in said on Sunday that South Korea would be put on its highest alert level as coronavirus infections topped 600 in his country.

    “We shouldn’t be bound by regulations and hesitate to take unprecedented, powerful measures,” Moon said, according to The Associated Press, adding that the outbreak “has reached a crucial watershed.”

    South Korea reported 169 new cases of the deadly virus, the AP noted.

    Authorities can now reportedly close schools and restrict public transportation and international flights.

    It is interesting that they are acknowledging that standing regulations on government action should not get in the way of effective action.

    This is the point where lots of governments will either take strong and decisive actions or try to play out a wish list agenda of what they think government ought to be able to do all the time without those meddlesome rules and regulations in place.

  11. Larry Ledwick says:

    Meanwhile street cams in Chaweng, Koh Samui, Thailand shows huge numbers of people on the planet have no clue there is a public risk and are happily carrying on with their routine night life.

    Absolute Ice bar Street cam

  12. jim2 says:

    Interesting to note that in Iran, the confirmed outcomes include 5 deaths and no recoveries. Might be a good excuse to eliminate some opposition in a sneaky way.

  13. jim2 says:

    LL @ https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/02/23/22-feb-2019-ncov-sars-cov-2-covid-19-corona-virus-pandemic/#comment-125483

    People are in shorts in Thailand. It’s warm there. By J.H. dashboard, they have 35 cases, 17 recoveries, and 0 deaths.

  14. Larry Ledwick says:

    Yes someone with a clue needs to get AI to look at the major outbreaks correlated by air temperature just taking a quick look at the map.

    It looks like temps over about 55 – 65 deg F we don’t have any major blooms of infections.

  15. Bill In Oz says:

    Larry I am more & more coming to the conclusion that Coronoa virus will have little impact there in Thailand. Why ? because it is tropically warm & humid. Ditto in the Philippines, Malaysia, Southern ( warmer ) Vietnam ( but not Northern colder Vietnam ) & Cambodia.

    There have been some reported cases but almost all involve Chinese citizens bringing it to these countries. The exception is Singapore with all it’s high rise towers air conditioned with recycled air to minimise the cost.

    I note also the South China Morning Post article about Taiwanese who usually work in China, but who went home for Chinese New Year, are resigning from their jobs in China and staying put in Taiwan.. ‘Staying alive is more important than a job ‘ is how one Taiwanese put it. I wonder what the temperature is in Taipei right now ?

  16. Bill In Oz says:

    Just checked. It’s balmy there ! Temperatures in the mid twenties during the day and mid to top teens at night…Too warm for the Crown of thorns !

  17. Gail Combs says:

    Response to Senator Cotton from a ?health professional?

  18. Gail Combs says:

    Adaline, also tweeted this so we know which states were able to test. California, Nebraska and Illinois.

  19. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting summary on epidemic control and how it a might apply to COVID-19


  20. Larry Ledwick says:

    Taiwan is reasonably warm, Taipei is now at 64 Deg F ( 18 C ) Hengchun on the south end of the island is at 70 Deg F ( 21 C )


  21. M Simon says:

    Another Ian says:
    23 February 2020 at 8:28 am

    Check who wrote the link article

    Don’t buy China’s story: The coronavirus may have leaked from a lab By Steven W. Mosher, February 22, 2020 | 11:18am | Updated

  22. Gail Combs says:

    Of use, a Prep video AND a doctor who is finally saying what we all are…

    ɪᴀɴ ᴍ ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ 🦠🤧🧬🥼🦟

    “Like all good pandemic preparedness recommendations, it helps you rehearse emotionally, as well as logistically”
    Thanks to @EIDGeek (Dr Jody Lanard) & Dr Peter Sandman who step us all through this process…


  23. E.M.Smith says:

    Unfortunately, I think Italy is the proof that one “hope” is dead. There was the hope that perhaps differential ACE2 expression in Chinese men vs women and other races might mean a less virulent and less lethal experience outside China.

    Yet Italy has gone from none to lock down in very short order with 2 dead already.

    IMHO, this kills any hope for a European differential impact. Degree of smoking TBD.

    Do Italians still smoke heavily? I’ve not been there since 40 years ago…


    Italian Towns Locked Down Following 2 COVID-19 Deaths and a Surge of Cases
    A dozen towns in northern Italy effectively went into lockdown Saturday after the deaths of two people infected with the new virus from China and a growing cluster of cases with no direct links to the origin of the outbreak abroad.

    (CODOGNO, Italy) — A dozen towns in northern Italy effectively went into lockdown Saturday after the deaths of two people infected with the new virus from China and a growing cluster of cases with no direct links to the origin of the outbreak abroad.

    The secondary contagions prompted local authorities in the Lombardy and Veneto regions to close schools, businesses and restaurants and to cancel sporting events and Masses. The mayor of Milan, the business capital of Italy, shuttered public offices.

    Hundreds of residents and workers who came into contact with an estimated 54 people confirmed infected in Italy were in isolation pending test results. Civil protection crews set up a tent camp outside a closed hospital in Veneto to screen medical staff for the virus.

    In the town of Codogno, where the first patient identified in the northern cluster was in critical condition, closed supermarkets, restaurants and shops made main street practically a ghost town. The few people out wore face masks, which were coveted items after selling out at pharmacies.

    The president of Lombardy, Attilio Fontana, said there were 39 confirmed cases in the region, where 10 towns received orders to suspend nonessential activities and services. A postmortem test on a 77-year-old woman who died came back positive for the virus, though it wasn’t clear if the coronavirus disease caused her death.

    The Veneto region reported 12 people with the virus, including a 78-year-old man who died late Friday. Two of the region’s confirmed infections were in relatives of the man who died, Veneto regional president Luca Zaia said.

    Zaia said Saturday that the contagion showed that the virus is transmitted like any flu and that trying to pinpoint a single source for the cases or to establish a link to China no longer were effective containment measures.

    “You can get it from anyone,” he told reporters. “We can expect to have cases of patients who had no contact” with suspected carriers. While the virus isn’t particularly lethal, it can be for the elderly or people with existing conditions, he said.

  24. jim2 says:

    At https://weather.com/ you can see temps all over the world. Countries with a choice should send people to quarantine to the warmest areas, IMO.

    Italy appears to be in 40-50s.

  25. Gail Combs says:

    Well what I thought might happen is already starting
    A Communist default is to ALWAYS nationalize.

    White House Trade Adviser Peter Navarro joined Maria Bartiromo on Sunday Morning Futures..

    Peter Navarro dropped this bomb.

    Peter Navarro: Maria my job at the White House during this crisis is to review the supply chains we need to treat corona. There’s over 30 different elements just for that alone. And what I’ve learned so far and not surprisingly is that we’ve offshored far too much of our supply chain not just for corona but also for the essential medicines we need… In terms of the immediate issue face masks, the N95 face masks. China put export restrictions on those masks and then nationalized an American factory that produces them there. So we’re dealing with that in Trump time.


    Can not say I am surprised. At this point China’s economy is going into freefall. Unfortunately a lot of pension funds like the teacher pensions in California, New York and Florida have a lot of $$$ tied up in China.





  26. Gail Combs says:

    Link from Senator Cotton

    2/22/2020 New Chinese study indicates novel coronavirus did not originate in Huanan seafood market

    A new study by Chinese researchers indicates the novel coronavirus may have begun human-to-human transmission in late November from a place other than the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan.

    The study published on ChinaXiv, a Chinese open repository for scientific researchers, reveals the new coronavirus was introduced to the seafood market from another location, and then spread rapidly from market to market. The findings were the result of analyses of genome-wide data, sources of infection and the route of spread of 93 samples of the novel coronavirus collected from 12 countries across four continents.

    The study believes that patient zero transmitted the virus to workers or sellers at the Huanan seafood market. The crowded market facilitated the further transmission of the virus to buyers, which caused a wider spread in early December 2019.

    According to the researchers, the new coronavirus experienced two sudden population expansions, including one on January 6, 2020, which was related to the Chinese New Year’s Day holiday.

    An earlier expansion occurred on December 8, implying human-to-human transmission may have started in early December or late November, and then accelerated when it reached the Huanan seafood market….

    So it looks like they gave up on the wet market fiction. Also note the time frame is now late November.

  27. E.M.Smith says:

    Looks like Iran is in the soup big time. A Doctor caught it weeks ago “in a small town” then worked 28 days without protective equipment, then died.

    The reported death rate is much higher. (Perhaps Antibody Dependent Enhancement from MERS like virus exposure?)

    Then Indonesia has no test kits, so of course no confirmed cases…. but why worry? The test kits are often wrong anyway…

    The religious practice implications are being discussed on the Politics (& religion. ..) thread:

  28. Bill In Oz says:

    Hi Larry, thanks for that clarification on Taiwan temps.. I was thinking centigrade automatically..not Fahrenheit… That’s why I said ‘balmy’ – lovely warm weather not to hot, not to cold.

    Current temps here in my home town in Oz are in the mid 20’s to low thirties Centigrade.. That is our luck for the moment. But Winter will come !

  29. Bill In Oz says:

    E M I agree, the situation in Italy shows conclusively that this Corona Virus hits all of us regardless of genotype….Or Ethnic background.

    Meanwhile there is this ‘Good News’ maybe ?
    “China National Center for Biotechnology Development deputy head Dr Sun Yanrong said that chloroquine, an anti-malarial medication, was selected after several screening rounds of thousands of existing drugs.

    The drug is undergoing clinical trials in more than ten hospitals in Beijing, Guangdong province, and Hunan province.

    Dr Su said that chloroquine phosphate, which has been used for more than 70 years, was selected from based on earlier studies. (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41422-020-0282-0)

    Considering that it is already an approved drug, it can easily be approved for repurposing to treat the coronavirus if further research trials show its efficacy without any side effects.

    Coronavirus infected patients treated with chloroquine demonstrated a better drop in fever, improvement of lung CT images, and required a shorter time to recover compared to parallel groups.

    The percentage of patients with negative viral nucleic acid tests after treatment was also higher with the anti-malarial drug.

    Chloroquine has so far showed no obvious serious adverse reactions in the more than 100 participants in the trials.

    Data from the drug’s studies showed ‘certain curative effect’ with ‘fairly good efficacy.”


  30. Gail Combs says:

    Here is a slightly longer 6 minute video of Peter Navarro on Maria.

  31. Bill In Oz says:

    An Australian perspective on the pandemic… Cheaper to introduce 14 day quarantine
    for all entrants to Australia in isolated ‘holiday cabins’ that to try and deal with the
    huge load of severely ill sick people later in our hospitals !

  32. Gail Combs says:

    The Epoch Times Article says

    ….The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services confirmed on Feb. 23 that it is currently monitoring 325 people, ClickonDetroit reported.

    All the people under observation have been to mainland China within the past two weeks or were passengers on a cruise ship where cases of the virus appeared, said state health officials. Those officials didn’t elaborate on which cruise ship it was.

    So far, none of the patients have been quarantined. But Lynn Sutfin, a spokeswoman with the state health agency, told Fox17 that the people have all been asked to self-quarantine at home.

    The patients aren’t of a high enough risk to be quarantined at a facility, she said…..

  33. Compu Gator says:

    E.M.Smith [say] 23 February 2020 at 3:34 am [GMT][*]:
    IF your trade show attracts foreigners or heavy travelers [or] foreign booths, the odds could be enormously higher. If those 7000 don’t effectively keep quarantine (as easy as a shared apartment air system…)

    This has been my doomsday scenario for Central Florida since late January. Orlando Convention Center is reportedly the 1st-largest or 2nd-largest in the U.S.A. (alternating that rank with Las Vegas, as each undergoes episodes of expansion). Orlando International Airport (MCO, preserving its origin as McCOy Air Force Base) is only ranked 10th for total passenger traffic, but 1st for tourist traffic in the U.S.A. And there’s a backdoor only 20 mi. north of downtown, up at “Sanford-Orlando” International Airport (SFB), which will probably be cluelessly neglected in any screening of incoming passengers (e.g., as for SFO vs. SJC).

    It’s a distressingly safe bet that the hotel industry in Central Florida is not prepared to do thorough sanitizing (or sterilizing?) of all the routinely touched surfaces in each & every room from which guests have checked out. Unlike hospitals, the furnishings of hotels were almost certainly not selected & purchased with accomodating thorough sanitizing as a requirement. Heyyell, there was something of a local scandal a decade or two ago when it was first reported that major local hotels were saving money by neither cleaning nor replacing the comforters on guest beds when each roomful checked out; instead, they merely removed the comforters just long enough to change the sheets, then put the same comforters back on the beds. I doubt that any of E.M.’s readers need help to visualize what contagious acts people might have performed on top of those comforters. I wouldn’t want such a newly hazardous room next assigned to me, or to friends or relatives of mine. But I don’t know if any hotels changed their cleaning procedures over the longer term.

    And let’s not forget the hotel and other tourism workers, an underclass in which unskilled de facto immigrant Puerto Ricans [#] are almost certainly now the majority.

    Note *: [https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/02/16/16-feb-2019-ncov-sars-cov-2-covid-19-corona-virus-outbreak/#comment-125452].

    Note #: Yes, yes, I know, much better than I’d like, that according to the “Insular Decisions” handed down a century ago by the U.S. Supreme Court, Puerto Ricans, whether in the Continental U.S. or still over in P.R. after Hurricane Maria and a 7.7 earthquake (a magnitude which even Californians respect), legally became U.S. citizens, with the full “rights and privileges pertaining thereunto” (or somesuch), including freedom of movement & residence. Yet their expectations were formed from life on a Caribbean island that’s under more-or-less socialist territorial rule, accustomed to having all news delivered in their foreign native language dialect. And in Central Florida, they can now get by without making any effort to assimilate, relying on social services that are mostly taxpayer-supplied, and on politicians habitually pandering to keep those services coming–if not expanded. Dang! This politics is tough to separate!

  34. E.M.Smith says:


    Um couple of points:

    My daughter in law is about 1/4 Puerto Rican, so all my grandkids are part Puerto Rican. Her Puerto Rican (half or whole, not sure) Dad worked for Standard Oil running refinery equipment until retirement. Watch the stereotyping.

    The USA has NO national language. The Constitution of Ohio is written in German. Louisiana still has lots of French Speakers. China Town S.F. has spoken Chinese for over 100 years. California, Texas and others spoke more Spanish than English at their foundation and likely at admission. In Arizona, tune to 660 A.M. for the Navajo Nation radio, in Navajo. I do… Think the Talmud is not in Hebrew? Then Solvang, California has made an industry out of being a Danish town. Swedish students come to Little Sweden Minnesota to study old Swedish. In my ancestral Amish communities you will find a peculiar German based on Swiss German, but different, and accented English. In Texas Hill Country, Texasdeutsch. Guten tag, y’all… https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_German and hundreds of other language communities all over the nation. (My family also “speaks” American Sign Language as spouse and I are transitioning, slowly, to the deaf community and kids joined in. ASL is VERY different from English even in grammar and vocabulary. ). Sharing English is nice, but we are a nation of dozens more languages. Don’t limit yourself, or the rest of us.

    And yes, this ought to have been put in the politics thread.

    BTW, having lived in dozens of hotels mostly along hwy 192 over the years of contracts at Disney: I’ve never seen the comforter changed….

    FWIW: A big swimming pool tablet (abouf 3 inches) placed in a jar on the night stand, will slowly emit chlorine gas and “freshen” the room, removing a lot of the complex organic crap from the “air freshener sprays” too. Put the lid on before staying a long time in the room and air out as needed to get the chlorine level low enough :-) When the tablet slows from age, a few drops of water kick starts it.

    Dang! Just realized I didn’t inventory any tablets! Lowes needs a visit….

  35. Gail Combs says:

    From the end of January… Larp or for real?


  36. E.M.Smith says:


    Doesn’t look like role playing game to me.

    Ought the market take a big hit? Yes.
    Will the market take a big hit? Depends on The Fed and major $ Billionaires.

    Never bet against The Fed. In emergencies, The Fed tends to act.

    So it’s a risky game, either play. Trade fast and watch the news wire per Fed action.

  37. Larry Ledwick says:

    Empty shelves in Italy

    empty shelves So Korea

    “Photo From Italian Quarantine Armed Check Point at Codogno City”


    Singapore and the virus

    Translated by Bing – from ( https://jp.reuters.com/article/china-health-singapore-idJPKBN20F11C )

    Kim moved in just around the beginning of the new virus outbreak. The man asked Kim what his family felt, provided him with some medical masks, and reassured Him that Singapore was coping with the situation.

    Kim’s experience is a good indication of the cleanliness approach taken in Singapore to fight the new virus. Using police investigators and security cameras to track and isolate more than 2500 people. It was admired internationally.

    The World Health Organization’s director general, Tedros, said this week that “Singapore is thoroughly examining every corner.”

    But experts say virus coping measures like Singapore are not easy for other countries to do. Other countries don’t have the geographical characteristics, financial power, or broad state management system like Singapore.

    Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease expert at the University of Minnesota, said, “I don’t think there is a country where Singapore can do it if it can’t control the new virus.”

    In the island, where 5.7 million people crowd each other, 84 people (at the time of writing) have been infected with the new virus, the most common outside mainland China, except for the mass incidence of Japanese cruise ships. Experts say, however, the high number of people infected in Singapore is due to their ability to find out.

    According to a recent study by the Harvard Center for Communicable DiseaseSia, Singapore is finding the number of people infected three times faster than other countries, with its ability to monitor infections and track contacts.

    The size of the country is also important. Compared to Wuhan, China, the area is smaller than one-tenth, with a population of almost half, making it easier to contain.

    Since independence in 1965, the ruling party has remained unchanged, and there are strict laws that allow it to maintain strict immigration controls and justify the monitoring of people who could spread the virus.

    At the end of January, a total of 140 government expertteams were set up to listen to patients and identify and isolate the contacts, as the first time a Chinese tourist was found to be infected.

    According to health ministry officials, the airline was asked to submit a list of passengers, and security cameras followed the patient’s movements and police investigators were charged. So far, about 2593 people have been isolated.

    “This is where we are accepted to enter our personal lives,” said Chung Jaran, a professor of political science at the National University of Singapore. “The public is quite ready to respond to this type of demand, which is helping to track.”

    It is considered a crime to turn down information or provide inaccurate information to investigators. Failure to comply with quarantine orders could result in fines of up to 10,000 Singapore dollars, up to six months in prison, or both.

    Officials have also imposed a 14-day ban on workers who have recently traveled to China, confirming that they are protecting their feet by calling and visiting more than 1,000 times a day. Violation of duty revokes work permits and losses employers’ right to hire foreign workers.

    Nearly 400,000 people are registered in the government account of the messaging app Watts Up, and the government sends daily warning son about the new virus, including infection numbers, prevention methods, and warnings against rumors on the Internet.

    Singapore’s thorough response is also due to his experience with SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) in 2003-04. The country’s death toll exceeded 30, one of the highest outside mainland China.

    Singapore is also one of the first countries to launch a travel ban to China this month. China is Singapore’s largest trading partner, and with the largest number of tourists, the Chinese have the largest number of tourists, so the travel ban is a big economic blow. Singapore’s prime minister has already warned that a new virus outbreak could put into recession.

    But Singapore has enough money. It is the richest country in Asia, with nominal gross national gdp per capita and is among the top 10 countries in the world. On June 18, the company announced a budget of 4.5 billion U.S. dollars (approximately 504 billion yen) in the budget to contain the new virus and to support the economy.

    There were some mistakes in Singapore’s response. The government said there had been “misunderstandings” when the government raised the alert level for the new virus two weeks ago and caused panic about stocking up on daily necessities such as rice, noodles and toilet paper.

    The Singapore style method may not be sustainable. All the more so if the epidemic becomes more serious.

    Dale Fischer, who heads the WHO’s “Global Infectious Disease Vigilance and Response Network ” (GOARN), which is the coordination role, said: “We can’t continue what we’re doing. Just because it’s not an urgent operation, you can’t keep everything off, and you can’t ban everything from going out on holidays.” “In the end, we’ll have to loosen up a bit,” he said.

    At the beginning, Kim receives regular e-mails from his family overseas asking him to be safe. However, the authorities’ response has given Kim a sense of security. “My family is absolutely worried, but I’m reassuring that Singapore’s response is very good and that the new responses and policies seem to make a lot of sense,” he said.

    Our Code of Conduct: Thomson Reuters “Principles of Trust”

  38. Larry Ledwick says:

    As I ponder the events world wide it is clear this is going to trigger a huge reset world wide.

    Small business who are cash poor and living from payment to payment will in huge numbers either go out of business or suffer a period or closed door watching and waiting. The lucky ones will get some sort of capital injection, or will be able to exercise some sort of Government Force Majeure holiday on debt or other day to day expenses.

    Daily traffic will simply cease to exist and a few will find other little niche opportunities to keep a bit of survival income coming in.

    Most of my financial assets are in my 401K and I an neither smart enough (in a financial sense) or connected enough nor do I have the cash flush bank balance to take big risks. I figure my best option is to let the 401K manager types do what ever they think will keep the fun alive, and let things shake out as they will down the road.

    It is far to late to change boats in the middle of the stream, and I am far more likely to make a stupid mistake trying to be clever than to just hunker down and stay out of the blast pattern as best I can.

    So I am just a passenger on this doom train at the moment and hoping my prior planning for emergencies is reasonably good and I will fare far better than many who had no clue how connected and tied together the world’s systems are, and simply fiddled while it all burned down.

  39. Larry Ledwick says:

    If you look around these sorts of business revenue and traffic collapse stories are all over the place.



  40. jim2 says:

    Singapore is 70-80s or more now and almost on the Equator. If temperature matters, they are in a good spot. Also, apparently about 74% of the population there is Chinese, so there may be major traffic between there and China.


  41. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry L:

    Thus all the governments lying to everyone saying it is all fine and China saying every one is going back to work Real Soon Now.

    OTOH, the economics will not be quite as horrible as you might think. Some percent will be naturally immune or just not infected. Call it 40%. Then of the 60% there’s 80% have low symptoms. That’s 48% of the toral. Together that’s 88%. So a couple of months after onset, 88% of folks are just picking up where they left off.

    Of the 12%, about 8 to 10% points will eventually recover, with issues, and a few points get burried or cremated.

    The world has been through it before and survived.

    Some businesses will fold, others just take a long vacation, some gain business. Central Banks will blow out cash like snow. Some things will be short supplied (and new makers jump in) whie others unwanted (like cruises…). Overtime it sorts out.

    One example? I bought ahead a couple of months provisions. If I don’t buy any for 2 months, the stores have already made that revenue.

    So yeah, not buying cruise ship stock now, but maybe mortuaries and hospitals…

  42. M Simon says:

    Compu Gator says:
    23 February 2020 at 10:00 pm

    The Puerto Rican problem has been with us for a long time.

    See “West Side Story” by Leonard Bernstein.

  43. M Simon says:

    E.M.Smith says:
    23 February 2020 at 11:05 pm

    Swimming pool tablets – would toilet tablets work the same?

  44. Ossqss says:

    How many component parts come from aflicted areas?

  45. M Simon says:

    E.M.Smith says:
    24 February 2020 at 3:52 am

    Low volume crematoriums? Bio-hazard sanitation?

  46. E.M.Smith says:


    I think they are chemically different. Pool tablets are basically solid bleach. A jar oc bleach woulx eork the same, With spill risks.


    Depends on thd product. Drugs is 90-something percent, probably similar for toxic chemicals. Autos vary by brand, but just one missing stops production. Nissan shut down for lack of a wire harness.

    Now it is easy to teach someone to make wire harnesses, but it will cost more. I’m guessing they just take a month or two off and run down inventory.

    So some stuff will have little impact (USA Chickens) others short for a month, others intervention (like emergency rules waviers for drug production) etc.

  47. M Simon says:

    The re-infection problem hasn’t been sorted out. If it is real? Significant?

    The second time is worse.

  48. E.M.Smith says:

    Oh, and things like iPhones, 100% China, run out… couple of months to restart.

    Per re infection: given the on / off testing results, how do we know it isn’t a recurrance? A round two from virus already in them?

  49. M Simon says:

    This is about 1/2 political.

    Peter Navarro Discusses The U.S. Supply Chain Amid Chinese Coronavirus Effects

  50. E.M.Smith says:

    FWIW, IMHO, China has concentrated in things with more labor component, but also some strategic advantage. So lots of special materials and electronics, Then they move up the chain to components (like car axels and starters). They tend to not be in things like giant drag line shovels or ship Diesel engines.

    OTOH, they built a sock factory sized to meet gobal demand… so lots of textiles.

  51. Larry Ledwick says:

    OTOH, the economics will not be quite as horrible as you might think. Some percent will be naturally immune or just not infected.
    . . .
    The world has been through it before and survived.

    True enough – same sort of forced adjustments happened in 1972 – 1973 oil embargo days, followed by the financial mess that followed in the Carter years, savings and loan collapse, then the stagnation years up until the Miracle on Ice reignited American pride. Or the Japanese boom bubble and then its stagnation.

    Unfortunately many on the left are not deep thinkers and they are about to be hit with a decade of adjustments that they have no clue are coming.

    During that period, many of my friends had to cast aside life long plans and totally re-engineer their goals, objectives and sources of income. Some few tried to be a bit too clever and crashed spectacularly. Others like me, struggled for a while trying to match talents with opportunities and dig out of the hole.

    I am in a totally different line of work than I had intended to be in the mid 1970’s as the future I was shooting for, simply ceased to exist, and unknown to me, at the time entire careers were disappearing as systems and expectations changed.

  52. Larry Ledwick says:

    Lessons from the Black Plague.

  53. Larry Ledwick says:

    Never underestimate the ability of Bureaucrats to side step uncomfortable decision points by simply redefine the rules. WHO says they no longer use the designation Pandemic.


    Has been in common use for 354 years – since 1666

  54. Foyle says:

    Iranian lawmaker says 50 dead of Wuflu in Qom, 7 last night alone. (from Korea and Japan generally about 1-200x dead infected, so likely ~5,000 (4%) of Qom population infected, and ripping through other cities now too.

  55. Larry Ledwick says:

    Yet another set of studies which strongly suggest WHO underestimating the potential rate of spread due to using estimates of R0 numbers which are too low.


  56. David A says:

    The group quarantine practice in China, which I called murder, is apparently turning into just that.

    “new reports are emerging that many of its field hospitals and health detention centers that were set up in sports stadiums, exhibition halls and schools that was meant to either serve as quarantine areas or to treat suspected cases are now turning up to be new hotbeds that are spreading the coronavirus.

    One facility in Huanggang City that houses almost 6 thousand individuals that are being quarantined reported yesterday evening that almost 32 percent of its residents have now tested positive for the coronavirus.

    It estimated that there are about 462 such field hospitals nationwide, housing more than 1.8 million people in total. Conditions inside make perfect incubation centers for the coronavirus as it is often overcrowded with filthy sanitation services and enclosed with not much fresh air.

    Chinese health authorities refused to comment on this but an investigation has been launched since yesterday on this new development according to city officials from Huanggang.”

  57. David A says:

    Hospital occupancy in US
    I think this is 2012 numbers…

    National average hospital bed occupancy rate (2012): 61 percent

    Number of beds available (per 1,000 people, 2012) 2.6 beds

    Occupancy rate for urban hospitals (2012): 64 percent

    Occupancy rate for rural hospitals (2012): 43 percent


  58. llanfar says:

    @ll not sure if you follow @COVIDtracker – worth checking out.

  59. E.M.Smith says:

    Just watched the Dr. John Campbell update, whom I trust, who said ~”If the W.H.O. do not declare a pandemic they will lose a lot of credibility” followed by the W.H.O. update where they went out of their way to justify why they would NOT call this a pandemic. The most lame bit being a comparison to flu stating we know how flu works so we call it early, but covid-19 is new so we can’t. Then they mostly emphasized that closing borders and stopping flights was bad and “we” ought to just concentrate on “management” of the disease… as though it were under management.

    IMHO the W.H.O. is now outed as a “worse than useless” negative impact organization mostly pushing the Globalist open borders dogma / nonsense over the needs of people.

    Quarateen and lock down and closing borders have worked for thousands of years. ESPECIALLY in the face of highly contagious unknown pandemics.

    IMHO just ignore anything from the W.H.O. (and in future work to disband / defund them..,) since clearly they are a political body not a medical one.

  60. Ossqss says:

    Closed cases have continued to evolve based on worldometer data.

    Recovered 91% Not 9%

    Single digits for the first time.

  61. E.M.Smith says:

    Though I do wonder how much of the drop in new cases is just saying thousands are locked inside buildings to live of die and we will never know in 2 months when they open them up or burn them down…

    If you don’t test you don’t get new confirmed cases. We know hospitals were overrun, turning away people. We know apartment blocks were being welded shut. Testing? Not so much…

  62. M Simon says:

    Now ==> Who could have seen this coming? Not WHO.

    Wuhan U-turn on easing lockdown, as China reports 150 new deaths

  63. E.M.Smith says:


    Has: S.Korea continuing their exponential at: 833
    Diamond Princess ship now at: 691
    Ialy now at 229
    Japan hit 158

    Then it is just double digit countries

    Iran now officially 61 with 12 dead.

    USA jumps to 53 on more Diamond Princess cases repatriated.

    Very interesting to me are the countries that have single or low digit cases, now pronounced all cured or dead, so nominally disease free: France, Philippines, India, Russia, Spain, Belgium, Cambodia, Egypt, Finland, Nepal, Sri Lanka.

    The Whack-a-mole countries need to keep that up, and are doing well. It looks like the key is if a country has a superspreader, or misses the first few cases so can’t contact trace effectively until it is spreading by community infection.

    THE big risk right now does look like South East Asia/Japan, the Middle East (read as Iran + followers), and Italy. For Italy, it looks like Chinese working “off the books”, getting past the flight ban via other countries, were a likely source. For Iran, an Iranian who traveled to China and back. (Perhaps on that big highway from China to Teheran…). More effective border control with China is needed, along with individual national border screening.

    Iran is likely a lost cause and needs to be walled off. Italy is doing the right things, a bit late, but will likely handle it. So that leaves the Asian corner. I have little faith that Thailand, Cambodia, Viet Nam, or even S. Korea will be willing to “lose face” and do the right things. S. Korea in particular is a big risk to the USA given troop rotations. Japan has screwed up handling of the Diamond Princess and sent over a hundred of their citizens all over. Set your clock for 1 to 2 weeks for the surge…

    Can we in the west handle it if ALL of China, Japan, S.E.Asia are travel restricted / quaranteened?

  64. phil salmon says:

    Coronavirus species-jumped bat-pangolin-human.
    Sweet revenge for Pangolins!
    Pangolins are close to being driven to extinction in their native Africa due to Asians eating them and using their scales for folk magic.
    They are the most hunted wild animal in Africa.

    Stick it to the man, Pangolins!

  65. E.M.Smith says:

    Dear Phil Salmon:

    My God I hope so!

    I’d love to see that in the news! Then maybe folks will start to be more sane.

  66. jim2 says:

    FWIW – Spring is just around the corner!

    Year Spring Equinox (Northern Hemisphere)
    2020 Thursday, March 19, at 11:50 P.M. EDT


  67. pyromancer76 says:

    Usually read, but don’t comment. However, an article was suggested on a blog. I found it useful and interesting. Just thought I would pass it along. Thanks, E.M. for continuing to host a very interesting blog and community. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4711683/

  68. M Simon says:

    The wife reports that Walmart is no longer fully stocked in purses and handbags. She has never seen the shelves other than fully stocked.

    So far TP is still abundant.

  69. M Simon says:

    trapper says:
    February 24, 2020 at 1:14 pm

    My prediction: We will soon be told that the hot spots popping up all over the world did NOT come from person-to-person transmission (there WERE NO “patient zeros”), but person-to-THING- to-person. Sneeze on a thing, pack it in a shipping container, ship it across the world. I expect the Chinese already know it, judging by their total quarantines and factory closures, and are desperate to keep it secret, because when THAT is revealed, everything stops.

  70. Foyle says:

    16 out of 35 OECD countries have reported cases. But none in Africa (except 1 in Egypt) or South America. That’s not remotely likely to reflect reality is it? Waiting for the inevitable revelatory bomb to drop. Weird to know all hell is about to break lose and yet be surrounded by blissfully unaware people who don’t want to hear negative news.

  71. E.M.Smith says:

    Tenerife, Canary Islands, a 1000 person hotel on lock down due to a Dr. vacationing from Italy, after a week of feeling off got checked, has Covid-19. Police surrounding hotel.

    Diamond Princess Redux?

  72. E.M.Smith says:

    Very interesting set of graphs here:


    Like 5 day averages:

    Season where caught (due to temp, or due to places near China being north?):

  73. E.M.Smith says:


    Over 80k all told now:
    “Coronavirus Cases:

    South Korea at 977
    Italy at 287

    Outside Hubei, fatality rate near 1%, inside near 5% as medical care limited.

  74. Compu Gator says:

    How Coronavirus can arrive in your own neighborhood–nearly on your own doorstep:

    • Apartment complexes based mostly on 1-year leases, but setting aside other apts. to be offered as furnished apts. for short-term business-suite rentals.

    • Private individuals buying a condo or house as “an investment“, then paying its mortgage by operating it as a vacation rental. Even if there are homeowner-association or local-gov’t rules against doing so.

    • Private individuals offering their condo or house in vacation exchange plans, and not just for big events like the Super Bowl, World Cup, or presidental-election-year political-party conventions. I suspect that locally Disney’s annual Gay Days are occasions for exchanges with, e.g., San Franciscans. Such exchanges aren’t limited to inside the U.S.A.; e.g., some family members near Orlando exchanged their house for approx. 2 weeks with the house of a family in Ireland [@].

    One practical issue is how well a local guest, e.g., invited to a family holiday celebration, can expect the exchanging hosts to clean their own property when they reoccupy it after the distant guests have vacated. Hotels with cleaning equipment & procedures enhanced for a pandemic, if not just a marketing ruse, seem to me to be lower in risk, because apartment complexes and individual homeowners seem unlikely to have the knowledge, motivation, and access to the cleaning equipment. Except that it might be easier to avoid interpersonal contact with strangers if lodged in a private home. And except that local guests will need to go out in public to shop for their own food.

    Note @: I don’t know, and it’s really irrelevant to any pandemic, whether my family members used Airbnb[?], Vrbo, or made some other arrangements.

    Note ?: “Airbnb”: Huh? A bed’n’breakfast up in the air, like a passenger jet with sleeping berths (inspired by the Pullman car of long-distance rail travel, or boats fitted out for overnight voyages)? Naaawww: Wikipedia claims a far more mundane origin for the name: A reference to an air mattress used to improvise guest lodging. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbnb].

  75. E.M.Smith says:

    Interesting look at China lost cases:

    According to Thailand Medical News, hundreds of thousands of residents in nursing homes and old-age homes are infected, with many dying on a daily basis. Also, mass infections and deaths across prisons nationwide have been brought to light.

    Here are some excerpts:

    “Yesterday, brave investigative Chinese journalists from Caixin media uncovered that that many state controlled nursing and old-aged homes throughout China where there are hundreds of thousands of elderly residents are infected with the coronavirus and many were dying on a daily basis. One example was that of a nursing home in Wuhan where deaths and infected cases were not added to the daily tolls.( For full details of the report , visit: https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-02-25/exclusive-cluster-of-death-found-at-wuhan-nursing-home-near-seafood-market-101519854.html )

    “There are more than 14,823 such nursing homes throughout China housing more than 3.2 million citizens.

    “Already cases of mass infections and deaths across prisons nationwide have been brought to light.”

    See entire article:

  76. Gail Combs says:

    (From Daughn)
    Yesterday: Austria and Romania have shut down Italian trains and bus traffic.
    Switzerland contemplating similar action.

    Looks like they were too late:
    Switzerland, Austria, Croatia and Spain have reported first cases of the coronavirus. And Romania reported one case.

    IOC member Dick Pound says Tokyo Olympic organizers have until late May to see if the virus is under control. If not, “you’re probably looking at a cancellation.”

  77. Gail Combs says:

    Tired of delays, U.S. labs ask FDA to develop their own coronavirus tests

    CHICAGO (Reuters) – U.S. state and local public health laboratories are seeking permission from the Food and Drug Administration to create their own tests for the new coronavirus as manufacturing and regulatory issues continue to delay access to testing capabilities.

    As of Monday, only five U.S. states – California, Illinois, Nebraska, Nevada and Tennessee – have the capability to test for the virus, according to the Association of Public Health Laboratories (APHL).


  78. E.M.Smith says:

    They need permission to develop?

    I thought they needed approval that it worked, after development. No? We’re a comnand economy central authority on medical tests?

  79. cdquarles says:

    Having worked in pathology labs, in the past, that article seems *way* off. What the FDA used to do is certify that the drugs were safe and worked effectively. (And it still seems odd, to me, that the FDA would have anything to do with pathology lab tests. UL I can see, the FDA? WUWT?)

  80. cdquarles says:

    Hmm, seems that the CDC does have something to do with pathology labs, the various Clinical Laboratory Improvement Acts, dating from the 60s. See here: https://www.cdc.gov/clia/law-regulations.html

  81. jim2 says:

    It appears the J.H. dashboard has removed the air bases where people are being quarantined. Because of that, most cases are not accounted for on the map.

  82. BobbyCannoli says:

    @Gail Combs

    “CDC also stated in their live conference call: “The situation may be over whelming, and disruptions to everyday life may be severe” ”

    Interestingly, the doctor making that statement is apparently going rogue compared to the official CDC and HHS secretary positions. Further interesting point, that doctor happens to be Rod Rosenstein’s sister! So, perhaps there’s a political angle to it!


    So, we’re either not getting the right news officially, and it’s “worse than we thought (TM)”, or, somebody is making it seem worse to reflect badly on the administration.

    Who knows!?!!?

  83. Gail Combs says:

    Nancy Messonnier is an Obama appointee to her present position and who started under Clinton. She is Senior Executive Service aka ‘Deep State, the unfireable managers just below the presidential appointees who actually run the country. So yes very much political. She is also connected to WHO.

    “….Since beginning her public health career in 1995 as an Epidemic Intelligence Service Officer in the Deputy Director for Infectious Diseases (DDID), Dr. Messonnier has held a number of leadership posts across CDC and within NCIRD. [ National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases]

    She played a pivotal role in the successful public-private partnership to develop and implement a low cost vaccine to prevent epidemic meningococcal meningitis in Africa.More than 150 million people in the African Meningitis Belt have been vaccinated with MenAfriVac since 2010, with remarkable impact…..”

    She is a captain in theEpidemic Intelligence Service
    “The Epidemic Intelligence Service (EIS) is a program of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Established in 1951 by Alexander Langmuir, it arose from biological warfare concerns relating to the Korean War.” — WIKI

    “EIS officers serve on the front lines of public health, protecting Americansand the global community, while training under the guidance of seasoned mentors. When disease outbreaks or other public health threats emerge, EIS officers investigate, identify the cause, rapidly implement control measures, and collect evidence to recommend preventive actions.”

    She is a (Non-voting) Member of ’Vaccinate Your Family’ The website of the Vaccinate your family is a member of the WHO-led project Vaccine Safety Net (VSN).

    Vaccine Safety Net is a global network of websites, established by the World Health Organization, that provides reliable information on vaccine safety. I can find nothing on who the donors are.

  84. ossqss says:

    So, I ask you all to help me do some math. Let’s just use an average observed week for me for sampling, and your corrections as applicable.

    Ok, so we know the virus has a transfer viability rate of 2-9 days now on surfaces. I know, whatever.

    Then we include the worst case scenario that was documented at 27 day’s asymptomatic and contagious.

    Now we include all of the people we we encountered (6′ or something larger for Farts, I didn’t make that up) in up to 27 days, and what we touched for up to 9 days.

    How many points of contact is that,,,,,,,, that could be in play.

    It is not only about your personal contact. It is really about who, how many, what kind, and how long between cleaning, being important. Leave contact reinfection rate out of that equation to keep it simpler.

    Let’s do a gas pump. Maybe 500 people use it a day or a week (here in Florida near the interstate now could easily exceed those numbers) . Multiple contact points. Card reader, touch screen, 12 key or more keypad {which most don’t think about}, handle on pump, door to the place and the debit terminal in there with keys. Let alone the toilets.

    I am just tossing this out there to play with some numbers for overall context.

    So, who can do that calculation on exponentiality (my word) with just the few interaction points referenced?

    After all, we are only currently observing, at this point. Let’s do some math :-)

  85. ossqss says:

    BTW, I do have the answer after talking to several mathematicians.

  86. E.M.Smith says:

    Dòing the math isn’t hard.
    But you need to imagine the data and that is hard…

    Some people gas up the car daily, me? Now once / quarter (so no gas pump for me for 3 months… but on the Florida run, it was about 20 fillups.)

    We have changed from the several hundred folks tourist & students heavy mission, to a small locals only church. Very different contact profile, yet both are correct.

    A programmer who works in a cubical alone has very different risks than an author at a book signing.

    That’s the problem.

  87. jim2 says:

    ossqss – don’t forget to factor in the Chinese-made N95 masks :)

  88. E.M.Smith says:

    Worldometers.info has things still climbing:

    S. Korea 1,146
    Diamond Princess 691
    Italy 323
    Japan 161

    So S. Korea breaks a thousand and Italy is 1/3 of the way there.

  89. Gail Combs says:

    Daughn mentioned this about Nancy Messonnier:

    She’s the one who decided to have her own presser today.
    52 main stream articles quoted her and ignored Alex Azar.

    Alex is the Secretary of Health and Human Services, her boss’s boss.

    So it looks like she is another one of the ‘Resist’ movement within the government.

    Sort of makes you wonder if the CDC NOT testing and messing up the test kits sent to the states was sabotage and not just boneheadedness. She would be the one in charge.

    (Daughn used to comment a lot at Conservativetreehouse.)

  90. ossqss says:

    You are right EM, the math is not hard. Timing is everything.

  91. ossqss says:

    Gail, can we get some clarity on who Daughn is? Mentioned often, but ambiguous at this point with no context from my shoes. Just askin. TIA for sharing.

  92. ossqss says:

    So,,,,,,, How many packages from Amazon Prime/Walmart qualify for quarantine? Just sayin, think about it ….with the qualifiers we still don’t really know. Hence the word created “expotentiality”.

    I better exit stage left, to quote Snagglepuss :-)


  93. tom0mason says:

    E.M. says “IMHO the W.H.O. is now outed as a “worse than useless” negative impact organization mostly pushing the Globalist open borders dogma / nonsense over the needs of people.”
    I think that was more than evident with the foot dragging that WHO did when Ebola was just starting. How long did they wait? 18 months? 2 years?
    WHO, just another bunch of bureaucratic numpties spouting management sophistry to the detriment of the greater public good and ensuring many deaths.

  94. M Simon says:

    Virus transmission is not the only Airbnb problem.

    Police say two people were arrested and multiple firearms were recovered after neighbors complained of a loud party early Saturday morning.

    According to Rockford Police, officers were summoned to the 1000 block of N. Main Street around 1:40 a.m. due to noise complaints.

    There, police said they saw multiple people coming and going from the residence, which contained an apartment which had been rented via AirBnb.

  95. billinoz says:

    More bad news !
    Two articles on Thailand Medical news web site :

    1: A Thai national who went to japan & contracted the disease there, then lied about travelling when he went to hospital in Bangkok ! Possibly lots of hospital staff infected.


    2 : More instances emerging of longer incubation periods for the virus ..Or maybe the PCR test is not sensitive enough to detect small viral loads in some individuals !

  96. M Simon says:

    Coppied from the other thread with some additions. ==>

    Coronavirus: US outbreak now inevitable, leading American health official warns

    ‘It is not so much a question of if, but when,’ says Nancy Messonnier of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention

    ‘Data over the last week has raised our expectation that we are going to have community spread here,’ she says

    Testifying at a Senate budget hearing on Tuesday, Azar faced tough questions about his agency’s emergency request for US$2.5 billion to fight the outbreak.

    Senator Richard Shelby, the Republican chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, described the amount as a “lowball” request.


    Asked about the criticism the administration was facing about its preparedness, Messonnier, a 25-year veteran of the CDC, said the agency was “never going to ever be able to be so completely prepared that we’re prepared for any inevitability”.

    “I continue to hope that in the end, we’ll look back and feel like we are overprepared,” she said. “That is a better place to be than being underprepared.”


    It looks like Republicans plan to flood the problem with money., It is after all an election year.

    And Gail – from this article it seems the head of the CDC is just stating the obvious. I’m not seeing an anti-Trump bias.


    Now as to all this politics stuff. I’m sure some people would not do their job correctly because of politics. For others it would make no difference. She favors vaccines. So? They do seem helpful with some diseases. (polio, small pox).

    Messonnier, seems to be operating in a straight up fashion so far. I’d need more evidence to make me change my mind.

  97. M Simon says:

    billinoz says:
    26 February 2020 at 9:40 am

    PCR is very sensitive. So sensitivity is probably not the problem.

  98. M Simon says:

    Actually sensitivity may be a problem. Suppose the test can pick up 1 particle in a ml. And you are right at that detection limit. You will have false negatives just based on statistics.

    What to do? Make the samples larger. 10 ml.

  99. billinoz says:

    In Singapore there is good news !

    Singapore has developed a new serological test to establish links between cases. The test can detect antibodies in blood samples for contact tracing and establishing links between cases. One of the tools needed to get a grip on this disease !


  100. M Simon says:

    Corona virus test. Not approved in the USA. About 15 minutes into the video.

  101. Gail Combs says:

    Butterfly has a short list of how President Trump is handling the virus:

    Peter Navarro on Tucker, WH Coronavirus Plan is 4 part strategy being executed on TRUMP TIME

    1- HHS has RFP tomorrow for personal protective equipment, includes 1/2 Billion Masks, gloves, suits

    2- 3 Treatment options, 1-remdesivir IV drug in clinical trials, trying to secure dosage 2-Develop oral antivirals in rapid time 3-monoclonal antibodies to help build up immune system

    3-vaccine development in 1/2 time

    4-point of care diagnostics, adapting handheld devices to be able to do field diagnostics
    Since Jan 29 they’ve been on this doing it all in TRUMP TIME

    So it looks like President Trump is dealing with the nity-grity and letting the ‘RESIST’ clown, Nancy Messonnier out herself to the thinking public. Typical Trump strategy.

  102. M Simon says:

    Gail Combs says:
    26 February 2020 at 12:35 pm

    No test kits = no cases.
    Probably just an accident. Especially when there is a test kit out there. Used in Europe. and other places. See the video here:

    Trump time? An RFP is not enough. It has to be done under expedited rules.

  103. jim2 says:

    Speaking of ” just another bunch of bureaucratic numpties spouting management sophistry to the detriment of the greater public good and ensuring many deaths” (tom0mason) …
    The European Union will not impose border controls to contain the spread of the deadly coronavirus, despite hundreds of cases being confirmed in Italy and new cases being confirmed across the continent.

    The European Commission announced on Monday that it is currently not considering tightening border controls within the Schengen interior open-borders zone in response to the outbreak in Italy, which is now battling the largest outbreak of Coronavirus outside of Asia.


  104. M Simon says:

    And Gail. Check this out from Feb 13th – almost two weeks ago.

    Test Kits for Novel Coronavirus Hit a Snag in the U.S.

    I’m surprised our President’s resident geniuses and expediters haven’t straightened out the most fundamental requirement for management.

    Know what is going on.

  105. Gail Combs says:

    “…who Daughn is…”

    Daughn was a small town girl who “..grew up at the knee of my Dad. There were building plans and concept models in my nursery as a baby. His team invented high speed elevators, and I was on the job site for installs at Sear’s Tower, Hancock Building, Amoco, The Superdome, etc. Their architects bounced me on their knee. Their union heads built my swing set…

    Business led me to NYC and a choice of transfer landed me in Miami at 22yrs old.”

    She had skipped a couple of grades in school so when she graduated HS she was not 18.
    “…my first job was as a hostess for a local Sheraton Hotel…

    …Unknown to me, the restaurant business has added tension, stress, and a great deal of drama. The Restaurant Manager got into a scuffle with the Food and Beverage Director, while the General Manager was there. Restaurant Manager was fired, on the spot, the first Friday. On the way out of the door, still upset, the GM handed me the keys to the front door and promoted me to Restaurant Manager. I hadn’t been there a week….

    Glory of new status faded quickly… I learned a new Restaurant Manager would be hired by a “corporate” office in the faraway land called….. Pennsylvania. They owned over a hundred similar hotels. I was sad. At least they let me stay in the meeting.

    It was a real managers meeting, where we talked about “revenue” and “sales”. Gee whiz, Dad was an exec. Yeah, I knew what “revenue” and “sales” meant. I knew they had to go UP, otherwise I was a bad manager…. and now I was fighting for my job. Hmmmm…. what to do?…”

    So at 16 she figured out how to make the “revenue” go up in several creative ways and kept the job. Oh and along the way won the pastry chef competition for the best gingerbread house an annual tradition for all the hotels in New Orleans. (She was not supposed to enter the contest but hey, asking forgiveness is easier than asking permission esp after you won.)

    She got her degree in accounting and she ended up working for a small investment firm in Miami. She was quick enough on her mental feet to brazen her way out of doing money laundering for a drug cartel, earn their respect and not get killed.

    She now runs a Bed & Breakfast that her first husband and she rebuilt. When she found out how expensive the stone and tile would be she started a small company importing stone from all over the world. She was so successful at it she had people who got into jams come to her to get them out. So she has dealt with international trade, importing regs and knows people all over the world.

    When she returned to her home town they wanted her to run for mayor but she had just found out she was going to have a baby. And yes, she is well connected to the political scene. She is now married to a Boston Lawyer who has gone up against the Supreme Court and some of the Mueller team.

    Daughn is who I want to be when I grow up. :>)
    OH and we really want her to write a book on her adventures!

  106. David A says:

    I was very disappointed in the latest WUWT post, full of praise on how China has turned the corner and how wonderful their quarantine practice is. It was from Larry ( Fabius)

    Larry said… ” the epidemic stabilized in roughly four weeks – probably due to China’s fast and large quarantines.”
    ( My comment…
    Wow Larry, those are your words. Please defend them.
    Here is what China has done…

    China placed “potentially exposed” people into large public buildings with rows of beds right next to each other by the thousands. ( Estimated over 1.4 million) This is the Princess cruise ship on R naught steroids. No walls, common breathing air, large community restrooms – in short death traps, just as prisons, elderly homes, large apartment complexes, where people are locked in are.

    That is NOT quarantine, it is a death trap.

    Regarding mortality rates…
    The early deaths in Italy and S.K are because in Italy, like South Korea, the current dead vs case load is very early. This means those that died there, died very early in the illness. ( Elderly and pre-disposed to be vulnerable to this) S.K at about 1000 current cases, will not reach a mortality number for that many cases for at least two weeks. Italy, same thing.

    The more exponential the growth, and the earlier in that growth pattern, the more misleading on the low side is the mortality numbers.

  107. jim2 says:

    More on test kits in the US:
    n the Wisconsin lab’s initial tests, though, the segments were showing mismatched results, meaning the test was inconclusive. But lab workers knew that was off — they had manufactured those sample specimens to be true positives and negatives.

    They reached out to the CDC and within days were in communication with those officials, as well as the Association of Public Health Laboratories.

    But in the last two weeks, Bateman said, it’s been fairly quiet, as the CDC races to figure out what went wrong.

    They suspect it was a hitch in the manufacturing and distribution of the test. He’s been told they’ll perform more extensive quality controls on new batches of the kits.

    “That’s why we do this verification testing any time we develop a new test,” Bateman said. “It delayed some things, but it’s a good example of why we do this.”


  108. Gail Combs says:

    “…I’m surprised our President’s resident geniuses and expediters haven’t straightened out the most fundamental requirement for management….”

    That is why I think there is politics involved. If your orders to your experts are not followed AND you are not allowed to FIRE the person, then you are in a world of hurt.

    I think by now we are well aware that the elite would like to cull the human race. They think there are way too many of us. Malthusian Paul Ehrlich’s wrote the “Population Bomb” in 1968. His co-writer John Holdren became Obama’s Science Czar. Dr Tim Ball wrote an article about the connection between Malthus theory and CAGW in WUWT.

    If you realize the Obama government was NOT interested in protecting Americans then Nancy was put in place because of her one world socialism views. It is not hard to see that she could have deliberately allowed the disease to spread in the USA to ‘Get Trump’ AND that she doesn’t care if it kills ‘useless eaters’ aka retirees. Remember we know have a gov of Virginia, a BABY Doctor! Who thinks it is fine if a woman in labor decides that once the child is born she wants to kill it. Last I knew that was not called abortion it was called infanticide.

    CDC has run just 426 tests from Jan 21 to Feb 24. The USA is incapable of running at least 10,000 tests in that time frame? Are you kidding me?

    A MONTH after the CDC was aware of the virus. Aware that we had over 100 planes with ~14,000 people DIRECTLY FROM Wuhan land in San Francisco and NYC we get:

    February 19, 2020 – “Last week, the CDC said it will begin testing individuals with influenza-like-illness (ILI) for COVID-19 at public health labs in San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, Seattle, and New York City.”

    Remember Nancy joined the CDC under Bill Clinton in 1995 so she was part of this.

    In my computer switch I lost an old story of a whistle blower stating the CDC/Obama Admin. threatened doctors and nurses on the border. They were to keep their mouths shut about all the disease that was being let into the country. (Strictly against immigration law BTW)

    I did find these stories.

    Remember when the media claimed that infectious disease outbreaks at migrant detention centers was “fake news?” Nope, they’re very real

    Media buries the truth about illegal immigrants bringing wave of hepatitis, tuberculosis and HIV to America



    8 U.S. Code § 1182.Inadmissible aliens
    1)Health-related grounds

    (A)In general Any alien

    ……(i)who is determined (in accordance with regulations prescribed by the Secretary of Health and Human Services) to have a communicable disease of public health significance; [1]

    ……(ii)except as provided in subparagraph (C), who seeks admission as an immigrant, or who seeks adjustment of status to the status of an alien lawfully admitted for permanent residence, and who has failed to present documentation of having received vaccination against vaccine-preventable diseases, which shall include at least the following diseases: mumps, measles, rubella, polio, tetanus and diphtheria toxoids, pertussis, influenza type B and hepatitis B, and any other vaccinations against vaccine-preventable diseases recommended by the Advisory Committee for Immunization Practices,

    ……(iii)who is determined (in accordance with regulations prescribed by the Secretary of Health and Human Services in consultation with the Attorney General)—

    ……(I)to have a physical or mental disorder and behavior associated with the disorder that may pose, or has posed, a threat to the property, safety, or welfare of the alien or others, or

    ……(II)to have had a physical or mental disorder and a history of behavior associated with the disorder, which behavior has posed a threat to the property, safety, or welfare of the alien or others and which behavior is likely to recur or to lead to other harmful behavior, or

    ……(iv)who is determined (in accordance with regulations prescribed by the Secretary of Health and Human Services) to be a drug abuser or addict, is inadmissible….

    OH, and to add insult to injury, this vaccine advocate INSISTS American kids get multiple jabs BUT Illegals get a free pass on diseases and NO INOCULATIONS!

  109. Gail Combs says:

    This guy generally has good info on the happenings in Iran.

  110. Gail Combs says:

    “Trump time? An RFP is not enough. It has to be done under expedited rules.”

    Trump time IS expedited. He has had the bureaucrats slashing regs left and right so stuff gets done much faster.

    Executive Order on Modernizing Influenza Vaccines in the United States to Promote National Security and Public Health
    Issued on: September 19, 2019
    Interesting section:

    …Section 1. Findings. (a) Influenza viruses are constantly changing as they circulate globally in humans and animals. Relatively minor changes in these viruses cause annual seasonal influenza outbreaks, which result in millions of illnesses, hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations, and tens of thousands of deaths each year in the United States. Periodically, new influenza A viruses emerge from animals, including birds and pigs, that can spread efficiently and have sustained transmission among humans. This situation is called an influenza pandemic (pandemic).

    Unlike seasonal influenza, a pandemic has the potential to spread rapidly around the globe, infect higher numbers of people, and cause high rates of illness and death in populations that lack prior immunity. While it is not possible to predict when or how frequently a pandemic may occur, there have been 4 pandemics in the last 100 years….

    He seems to know the science & manufacturing.

    (d) The current domestic enterprise for manufacturing influenza vaccines has critical shortcomings. Most influenza vaccines are made in chicken eggs, using a 70-year-old process that requires months-long production timelines, limiting their utility for pandemic control; rely on a potentially vulnerable supply chain of eggs; require the use of vaccine viruses adapted for growth in eggs, which could introduce mutations of the influenza vaccine virus that may render the final product less effective; and are unsuitable for efficient and scalable continuous manufacturing platforms….

    Realizing the above short comings he has been pro-active

    Sec. 2. Policy. It is the policy of the United States to modernize the domestic influenza vaccine enterprise to be highly responsive, flexible, scalable, and more effective at preventing the spread of influenza viruses. This is a public health and national security priority, as influenza has the potential to significantly harm the United States and our interests…

    Sec. 3. National Influenza Vaccine Task Force. (a) There is hereby established a National Influenza Vaccine Task Force (Task Force). The Task Force shall identify actions to achieve the objectives identified in section 2 of this order and monitor and report on the implementation and results of those actions. The Task Force shall be co-chaired by the Secretary of Defense and the Secretary of Health and Human Services, or their designees…

    There is a lot more to that E.O.

    Perhaps this is why they are already announcing a new vaccine is ready for human trials.

    February 25, 2020: COVID-19 Vaccine Shipped, and Drug Trials Start

    Moderna Therapeutics, a biotech company based in Cambridge, Mass., has shipped the first batches of its COVID-19 vaccine. The vaccine was created just 42 days after the genetic sequence of the COVID_19 virus, called SARS-CoV-2, was released by Chinese researchers in mid-January. The first vials were sent to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) in Bethesda, MD, which will ready the vaccine for human testing as early as April.

    NIH scientists also began testing an antiviral drug called remdesivir that had been developed for Ebola, on a patient infected with SARS-CoV-2. The trial is the first to test a drug for treating COVID-19, and will be led by a team at the University of Nebraska Medical Center….

  111. Gail Combs says:

    5:25 PM – Feb 25, 2020

    LYING MUCH? How would CDC know when they never bothered to do the definitive testing??
    Ten days before on February 15, 2020

    The current flu season has been milder than last year’s, with the vaccine protecting about half the people who were inoculated and a less severe strain of the virus causing most of the illnesses that do occur.

    However, there have been more deaths than usual from that milder strain, and there is evidence a more severe strain of the influenza virus is causing a growing percentage of illnesses….

    “The number of deaths we’re seeing is a little bit surprising,” CDC epidemiologist Brendan Flannery told the Wall Street Journal. “It’s a reminder that flu can be severe.”

  112. David A says:

    Gail, thanks for you lists, you still have your mojo!

  113. Gail Combs says:

    Trump is home…

  114. cdquarles says:

    If I am remembering correctly, a PCR type test should be really good with making small viral loads visible, compared to other types of screening. Hmm. Maybe they didn’t let it run long enough.

    That said, there is a dose-response curve to infectious diseases, too. The smaller the dose, the longer it’ll take to become infectious and/or clinically noticed; and maybe not either, if the person so affected is less sensitive than others.

  115. cdquarles says:

    Hey, Daughn sounds like another Sis :). Way to go!

  116. David A says:

    The India trip was phenomenal. In my view it is critical on many levels. Pakistan is likely humbled, will not be aggressive with India while P Trump is in office. While P. Trump is working hard to bring industry back to the U.S. there is plenty of room for some of that to go to India vs China. India is now very nationalist in a good sense, in a Trumpian sense of supporting yourself first, pride in your nations accomplishments, and rejection of one world GOVERNMENT, not a rejection of humanity. ( Watch his historic speech;
    this alliance can kill statist globalism.). And finally, to get this comment back to this thread, India has a large bio- industry, and perhaps by working together, national cooperation can help overcome this pandemic.

  117. E.M.Smith says:

    @David A:

    No big, but that likely belonged on the politics of covid thread…

    BTW, one of the bigger generic drug makers is Indian.


    Just watched the CDC briefing. That was in some ways encouraging as they are pushing for big response. However, on the very negative side: they were crowing over being almost ready to start testing folks in the general population (as opposedcto returned from China) to see if it is “in the general population”. That’s about as bad as feared.

    So South Korea has tested over 1000 and is planning to test all 200,000 of one religious sect that’s at the center, and we can’t do anything more than a few dozen? Maybe we just need to use Korean kits…

  118. Gail Combs says:

    Full briefing by Alex Azar and the White House team.
    Starts at 12:00 minutes.
    Preparations listed at 14 minutes.

  119. M Simon says:

    Gail Combs says:
    26 February 2020 at 2:09 pm

    When I worked for a living my specialty was projects in trouble.

    1. Idenrify all the immediate “to do items”
    2. Put some one in charge
    3. Check frequently on progress until the confidence in your team allows some management slack.

    I have worked on projects in such trouble that the initial meetings were every 4 hours. I got that settled down in a couple of days. Who wants to waste time in meetings (well more than necessary)?.

    The President by now should be well practiced at getting things done in a hostile environment (he promised a “hostile takeover”), so I’m not cutting him much slack on this. So yeah. I’ll cut him 5 days of slack. Not 12.

    Orders for critical goods should have gone out at the first sign of Chinese trouble. ( No later than 7 Jan – and then a week for the paperwork. Say by 15 Jan.).

    At this point all that can be done is play catch up. We are well out of anticipation time.

  120. BobbyCannoli says:

    LOL, and how do you know he didn’t do all that?

    “Play catch up” – Catch up to what? I don’t see any skyrocketing infection rates or deaths here. You’re assuming facts not in evidence.

  121. Foyle says:

    Bobby: It is almost certain there are significant pools of infection already growing in US, you have to get a lot of infected, taking weeks to develop, before it starts being noticeable enough to trigger testing for WuFlu and is not just ignored in noise of ordinary Flu – and if you are in a city it is even less noticeable. Testing hasn’t been made available in US (is it even now?) except for specific cases where people have traveled from China or been in contact with a known carrier. The ball has been dropped – maybe with sufficiently aggressive testing and quarantine from now on the epidemic can be avoided in CONUS, but I am not optimistic.

  122. BobbyCannoli says:

    I’ll believe the ball has been dropped when I see some evidence. Until then, it’s a guess, no better (or worse) than mine.

    LOL @ the captioning on the livestream happening now….. the medicine being investigated right now…. REM death severe ;)

  123. E.M.Smith says:

    So VPOTUS is now in charge of the Covid event… BUT we have no new cases and none in the wild…


  124. ossqss says:

    So who exactly do you test?

    We have a virus that has been documented in contagious carriers for 27 days without symptoms? That may be an unusual circumstance, but if you do not exhibit symptoms, who do you test?

    Outside of China, the death rate is well under 1%. Statistically, those with predisposition are at highest risk of serious complications. Those under 60 are also very low on the scale of bad outcomes from this based on what we currently know.

    The closed cases ratio on worldometer have now dropped to an 8% rate of death. Continuing a trend in the right direction considering the vast majority of data is out of Wuhan China.


    How do you drop a ball on something that remains somewhat amorphous and relatively undefined outside of questionable China data to date.

    I read a write up yesterday and it was a level setting read. I don’t agree with it all, but it punctuates many points that need identified.


  125. David A says:

    Ossqss, the death rate is no where near under one percent.
    We are in the first week in many nations, skewering the death rate low.

    We have what, 8k potentialy exposed in California? You test them all. You randomly test likely flu cases with a similar pathology.

  126. Gail Combs says:

    Coronavirus uncontained: First case in U.S. from unknown source is in Northern California

    A person in Northern California has tested positive for the new coronavirus but had not recently traveled to any foreign country where the virus is spreading and had not had contact with any people with confirmed cases, public health officials said Wednesday.

    The case marks the first time that U.S. authorities have not been able to determine the source of a coronavirus infection, and suggests that the virus may be spreading in the community….

    Also Sundance (Conservativetreehouse) has a very good thread on what President Trump has done.

    I will add:
    Executive Order on Modernizing Influenza Vaccines in the United States to Promote National Security and Public Health
    Issued on: September 19, 2019

  127. Gail Combs says:

    Daugh is incredible.

    This one is too good to not to share…

    Remeber at this point she is only 22 years old.

    ….Let’s just say……. a pissant Architect from a swamp town like Atlanta (compared to Chicago and NYC) with a piddly-little-30-story-condo didn’t intimidate me at all. Truth was, most of all, I was mad he was not respectful to my friend. He wasn’t talking to the [Fire] Chief like an Architect would talk to my Dad. He was looking down on the Chief…….. and it pissed me off.

    Every set of drawings has errors. It’s a given. It would be impossible to create a set of drawings… without errors…. It’s usually no problem at all, because it happens all the time. Anyone with any amount of experience in the industry knows this. How an architect reacts to the phone call speaks VOLUMES about the kind of fellow he is.

    As the two men got ready to close the conversation, the Architect asked if the Chief had any questions. The Chief looked at me, open palmed, “You have any questions?” I nodded and moved closer to the speaker phone. Innocently… , like a little bird chirping, I asked about a few of the errors, which I CASUALLY found, that would hamper our install of the security system for each unit, fire system for the building, and CCTV. Note: these were not small errors, they were HUGE errors, and would significantly change my bid price on the project. The architect damn near came through the phone, demanding to know who I was….. Yep, spoke volumes.

    The Architect’s reaction was over the top, defensive for no reason. He was an ass with a chip on his shoulder, which obviously had nothing to do with the Chief or me. In a flash, I could tell by the look on the Chief’s face, he was used to being treated this way by Architects….. which was a bad sign. Yet, the way the Chief set his jaw, leaned forward in a primal way, was instantly protective of me….. that was a good sign of an honorable man. I was his buddy, and a young woman who brought him sweets. Beyond that, my question was valid….

    I opened my mouth to respond to the Architect….

    And out it came…….

    “Hey, I’m just the lady who makes the blueberry muffins for the firehouse, but it seems to me… that if you did ABC……. then XYZ would be easier. And it would probably save a lot of conduit, time, cost for the client, and the install would go faster…….. and I’m guessing……. the electrical contractor would kiss you and send you a great Christmas present…….and YOUR client would be happy with the time and money saved……short pause…… but what do I know….. I’m just making muffins……. you’re the Architect…

  128. ossqss says:

    David A, I qualified things a bit with respect to death rates in my comment. With the numbers we are aware of outside of China, we have 56 deaths attributed to the virus (44 of those in 3 countries) and 0 in the US, FWIW. I do agree that everyone showing Flu symptoms gets tested, at least we know they are sick, but how many have no symptoms and are contagious, that need tested? My point is there are serious questions on the effectiveness of the tests at hand, as exemplified by the multiple positive and negative results on the same persons being tested in many of the documented case histories recently.

    We all have many questions and very few good answers at this time.

  129. cdquarles says:

    :D I must say she sounds a lot like I did back when I was that age.

  130. Gail Combs says:

    “We all have many questions and very few good answers at this time.”

    I did a bit more sleuthing and came up with this:
    Messonier’s latest briefing.


    No transcript yet.
    Quick notes:
    195 tests were for those in quarantine from returning from Wuhan.

    More than 1700 medical workers in China are infected

    In the questions it comes out:
    They are having to REFORMULATE the reagent in the test kits. WTF!

    To Chinese Daily — mitigation aka ‘disrupt spread’ close schools…tele-a-medicine.. have plans already in place may see coming up in coming weeks.

    To Reuters — blunt curve by ‘mitigation’ They are using mathematical models.

    Buzfeed — Serum test for flu is many weeks out

    Politico — Asks what about more surveillance? She thanks Congress, funding not problem, using the FLU system already in place she thinks most efficient.



    Friday transcript:

    ….We never expected we’d catch every traveler with novel coronavirus from China. It would be impossible. We’re not seeing spread here in the United States yet, but it is possible, even likely, that it may eventually happen. [If you are not testing how can you say that? — GC]

    Our goal continues to be slowing the introduction of the virus into the U.S. This buys us more time to prepare our communities for more cases and possibly sustained spread. This new virus represents a tremendous public health threat. We don’t yet have a vaccine for this novel virus, nor do we have a medicine to treat it specifically. We are taking and will continue to take aggressive action to reduce the impact of this virus, that it will have on the communities in the U.S….

    New information on the test kit:

    …. There were problems identified with the test kits. That is a normal part, unfortunately, of these processes. We obviously would not want to use anything but the most perfect possible kits, since we’re making determinations about whether people have COVID-19 or not. So that is still where we are. We are working with FDA, who is the one that have oversight over us. Under this e.u.a. on redoing some of the kits. We still consider it a priority to get the kits out to patients as soon as possible. It is overridden by the priority to make sure that the test is correct…. [You have to be kidding!! They are looking for PERFECT so they aren’t using the test already in use by other countries?–GC]

    There is certainly more data coming out that suggests that there are people who are reportedly asymptomatic who have this virus with the swab.….

    The current case definition does say that patients that have fever, symptoms of lower respiratory infection, requiring hospitalization, and a history of travel from mainland china meet the case definition for testing

    Balancing those things going forward, we are going to continue to look at travel history and see when and if there’s the right reasons to expand that beyond China.….

    CDC says Americans could see ‘severe disruptions’ with coronavirus, now that disease spread is ‘when’ not ‘if’

    “It’s not so much a question of if this will happen anymore, but a question of exactly when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illness,” Messonnier said.


    Good grief, I did QC If the test was marginal you used it for screening. It might not give you great results but it was better than being completely in the dark.

    The question at this time is DO WE HAVE IT LOOSE IN THE PUBLIC? So use the crappy test that gives 50% false negative to screen those obviously ill with corona virus type symptoms to SEE if you have a problem.

    Clinical Laboratories
    The results of tests performed by clinical laboratories nationwide are summarized below. Data from clinical laboratories (the percentage of specimens tested that are positive for influenza) are used to monitor whether influenza activity is increasing or decreasing.

    Week 7
    No. of specimens tested = 49,510
    No. of positive specimens = 14,657
    Percent = (29.6%)

    So 60% have symptoms that caused a doctor to order testing but came back negative for influenza B/Victoria viruses and A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses….

    Most interesting…

    For this season, 51% of influenza positive specimens reported by public health laboratories were among persons less than 25 years of age and less than 13% were from persons age 65 and older.

    So what did the old folks have? Did they test positive for bacterial infections instead?

  131. Gail Combs says:

    Messonnier said using the FLU system already in place is the most efficient.

    Does that mean they looking at 30% of samples are ID as flu and 60% as bacterial pneumonia and they have no samples with the clinical signs of illness left unidentified?

    That does not seem to jive with what she said:

    …The current case definition does say that patients that have fever, symptoms of lower respiratory infection, requiring hospitalization, and a history of travel from mainland china meet the case definition for testing….

    Or are they waiting for the mortality surveillance system to say there is an epidemic?

  132. E.M.Smith says:


    Thanks for that “in the wild” link. Nice to know and saved me spending time to eventually trip over it. Solono Coubty is where Travis is located. My guess would be that there was a failure of containment on the plane, in the unloading / disinfecting, or of the quaranteen facility operations; and the case found is a secondary from that.

    It is about 60 to 80 miles north of me, so likely we’re still safe from it. Today was a last top up supply run. I’m now set for 3 or 4 months. Saturday we go to soft lock down. (As it is, we’ve only done one or 2 very limited things per week, with caution, care and washing). So after Saturday, we only go out if essential for some reason, and then with face mask, eye protection, and gloves or disinfectant. Ought to be at least a week or 2 of that.

    Hard lock down, no outings, comes when cases are around us or U.S. Totals are rising from community spread. My guess is 2 weeks…

  133. ossqss says:

    Think about this statement for qualification of testing.

    “and a history of travel from mainland china meet the case definition for testing”

    I think we are way past that. Exponentially.

    So, let’s do some math again. If a single person was infected and came back through an airport and went home to a wife and 2 kids with the virus 27 days ago without symptoms, how long would it take to transfer that infection to the entire country assuming everyone within 6′ (as discussed) got it from day 1.

    Notice, I did not use the claimed 200′ with respect to fumigating excrement.

    Just sayin, expect your things to change somewhat, no matter what happens, simply based on the things we know. Seeing the panic in Italy the other day was very reminiscent of an approaching Hurricane here in Florida, and the response of people not being ready for what life sometimes tosses at you.

    If one case shows up in my city/county school or church, would we be immediately paralyzed in response? Let’s face it, we don’t face pandemic problems at scale too often locally, or ever… How do you think people will react as a first responder or ER staff in a pandemic?

    Think about it.

  134. M Simon says:

    BobbyCannoli says:
    26 February 2020 at 11:29 pm

    There are effectively no test kits. How can there be any facts in evidence?


    I’m a very pro-Trump guy. He is blowing this one. Especially given that test kits are available in Europe and China – even on the “open” market.

    The American supply chain isn’t working? Buy from a supply chain that is working.

  135. E.M.Smith says:

    Oh great… a flight attendant who worked several flights out of Los Angeles International (LAX) for Korean Air has tested positive. / been diagnised with Covid-19 ( per Stefan Molyneux video).

  136. Gail Combs says:

    Given that …
    A) The rest of the world has the ability to do tests in the thousands…
    B) The rest of the world is willing to DO tests

    I think it is completely idiotic that the CDC is STILL refusing to screen anyone hospitalized with symptoms in at least NYC and San Francisco since they had AT LEAST 50 flights each direct from Wuhan before the lock down three weeks ago.

    With a typical transoceanic flight holding 140 people that is a minimum of 14,000 people. Don’t tell me NONE contracted the virus while they were in Wuhan.

    On January 29th — “At least 7,711 cases of Wuhan coronavirus have been confirmed in China, including 170 deaths” And by February 8, that had grown to about 34,700 in China most of who would have been contagious before the Trump’s lock down.

  137. M Simon says:

    Lack of test kits is increasing the panic. Suppose we could test “everybody”. We might find the death rate is 1%. Now we only test “confirmed with symptoms” cases. The Death rate will look high.

    Accurate data (if it is not too bad) is the best way to quell a panic. If it is real bad you lie.

    Lack of data biases people towards “they are lying – it must be very bad.”

  138. Gail Combs says:

    It is NOT KNOWING if we should go into lock down that bugs me. We have birthdays and other parties scheduled in a few weeks and I would really like to know whether or not to cancel.

    That is why I would REALLY like to kick some CDC butt! If I am going to cancel, especially with repeat customers, I would like some facts to back me up. We really can not afford to lock down money wise given the number of animals we need to feed. Luckily the grass is starting to grow again and I can probably stop feeding grain if I have to.

    At this point I am going to ground Hubby and a friend with medical training and I will do the parties with someone at the parties doing all the handling of the kids. We can handle the ‘reasonable’ sanitary measures.

  139. E.M.Smith says:


    Since California is “going there first”, my guess is the south east will run a week or two behind us.


  140. M Simon says:

    The President had a 55 minute presser on Corona-19 today. With his whole virus management team in attendance. You can watch them waiting for 3 minutes if you start at the beginning. I started this at about 3 minutes in.

  141. billinoz says:

    EM I have pondering how the situation will develop here in Australia. No new COVID 19 cases in the past 2 weeks. But with people still flying in here from Iran, Italy, South Korea, Thailand, etc etc..It is just a matter of time till it arrives via some asymptomatic traveller, and gets spread around.

    You and your spouse are both retired and have the opportunity to do a soft lock down and then a harder one, if needed ( When needed ! ) But what about folks still in work ?
    A close example : my lady is a carer in aged care facility with a range of nationalities… At some point an infected traveller back from where ever will visit a relative in the facility.. And then of course the aged residents are a sitting duck for this virus. As are the residents families & the staff & their families !
    I’m wondering how can such a rapid spread be prevented & stopped !

    Probably a relevant query for lots of folks !

  142. E.M.Smith says:

    How to prevent and stop the spread is easy. But it will not be done.

    The virus has no legs nor wings. It can not move from country to country on its own.

    Stop international and inter regional travel fo 40 days. During that time, test everyone from any region with disease. Those infected go off to disease camp and stay there until dead, or cured plus any relapse time possible. Workers in the camp have separate quarters area from the sick and do not return to the outside population until 40 days after the last case is discharged.

    Basically, stop being legs and wings for the virus. Find and isolate folks with it.

    Why won’t this be done? Too much money lost to the rich. To much bother to the poor. Some systems break badly once population involved is large. (Chinese farmers dumping food while city starves)

  143. M Simon says:

    E.M. ==> the rich are stuck too. Quarantine or production? Let me think.

    If I had to make that decision I might go for – more people past the infected stage slows transmission. More super spreaders required.

    Let the medical system collapse for a month or two. Keep everything else running.

    Hard hearted? Yes. So is cancelling production.

  144. David A says:

    Ossqss, thank you for your response. And I certainly agree with the magic 8 Ball, ” The Future Is Murky”

    My concern about any attempt to place a mortality estimate on this virus outside of China is that it is far to early. Take S.Korea as an example; Today is basically day 7 from their initial number of about 30 cases. Now they are 1595 infected 13 dead and 18 critical. The average time from infection to death is a close to 14 days once symptoms appear. Also AFAIK South Korea is testing many asymptomatic individuals that just may have been in close contact to someone inflected. We should be as well. ( This may be pushing the average time from infection to death beyond 14 days.) The obvious point is that the vast majority of those 1,595 infected, have not had time yet to see their cases go to hospitalization, then IC, then critical, then fatal.

    Two weeks from today on March 11 let’s look at the S.Korea fatal quantity, compared to 1,595 infected. I expect it to be far higher then one percent. Also, one would expect all mortality percentages to increase if a nations hospitals become overwhelmed. And then additional dead from all other serious conditions due to stressed medical care.

    Gail, or anyone, I agree the lack of testing from the CDC is piss poor. What can P. Trump do about this? Is he just leaving it to the experts? Are the ” experts” Obama hires?

  145. David A says:

    It occurs to me that any decent CDC would follow those exact 1595 cases to their conclusions, either dead or cured.
    Certainly this had been done right????

  146. E.M.Smith says:

    @David A.:

    Supposedly Trump was P.O.d at the decision to repatriate positive individuals, then at how the spread of the disease was knocking markets. Then tonight, Pence is assigned to bird dog it all. Reading between the lines, looks to me like POTUS gave the “don’t panic the rubes” speech as advised and required, but also put more “motivation & direction” into the agencies via Pence.

    One big question, though, is just how much stupid law and regulation prevents proper emergency actions. Like maybe can’t import drugs & kits not approved by FDA.

  147. Geoff Cruickshank says:

    Thank you for the threads on this subject. Read them all and learned a lot, and it looks as though your early instincts were soundly based. We’re ready to withdraw from outside contact, thanks to your early warnings. Thanks.

  148. Gail Combs says:

    E.M. “Like maybe can’t import drugs & kits not approved by FDA.”

    Mom’s Doctor had severe rheumatoid Arthritis. It badly deformed her hands into ‘bird claws’ She went to Canada and took a drug a Doctor invented. It completely arrested the disease. Could she get it through the FDA? HELL NO!!! She even went on national TV (Joe Pine show) to talk about it. They focused on those bird claw hands as she rapped her knuckles on the podium…

    That was in the 1960s? Have we seen the drug yet?

    The FDA is FOR Big Pharna and BY Big Pharma. The bureauRats float between the two.

  149. Gail Combs says:

    “Gail, or anyone, I agree the lack of testing from the CDC is piss poor. What can P. Trump do about this? Is he just leaving it to the experts? Are the ” experts” Obama hires?”

    As I showed up above, when looking at Nancy Messonnier. Obama increased and strengthened the ‘Protected Class’ of Senior Executive Service (SES) The SES was started under Carter as a ‘bridge between the political appointees and the civil servants’. These are the people within the government resisting President Trump and sabotaging him at every opportunity.

    Executive Order 13714—Strengthening the Senior Executive Service.

    Click to access 2015-32060.pdf

    These are the people who are called the ‘Deep State’ They are the career bureaucrats just below the political appointees who ACTUALLY RUN THE GOVERNMENT. They essentially can not be fired. Andy McCabe is an example of a SES.

    Deep State is a group of 8,156 appointed mangers in 75 federal agencies that control the executive bureaucracy. OUT OF THOSE 8,156 MEMBERS WHO MAKE UP THIS DEEP STATE OF ENSCONCED BUREAUCRATS, OVER 7,000 WERE APPOINTED BY OBAMA.

    These the are the “Obama Holdouts” that still control the executive branch of government.

    ….There are four basic types of appointments:

    * Presidential Appointments with Senate Confirmation: There are 1,212 senior leaders, including the Cabinet secretaries and their deputies, the heads of most independent agencies and ambassadors, who must be confirmed by the Senate.

    * Presidential Appointments without Senate Confirmation: There are 353 positions which make up much of the White House staff, although they are also scattered throughout many of the smaller federal agencies.

    * Non-career Senior Executive Service: Members of the Senior Executive Service (SES) work in key positions just below the top presidential appointees, bridging the gap between the political leaders and the civil service throughout the federal government.

    * Schedule C Appointments: There are 1,403 Schedule C appointees who serve in a confidential or policy role. They range from schedulers and confidential assistants to policy experts.

    * The Senior Executive Service (SES) in 2016 had 8,156 members who were appointees. Obama appointed over 7,000 of them to these key positions. Most of these appointees do not arise from inside the respective agencies through a merit system and often are not qualified.


    Another ‘conspiracy site’ looked at Obama’s EO and found that the SES appointees are indeed EXEMPT from the normal screening process. This meant Obama could appoint people who would normally not pass ‘loyalty to the USA’ screening. Heck they would not even have to be American citizens!

    From the Obama EO cited above.

    ….(iii) Within 90 days of the date of this order, OPM shall evaluate the current Qualifications Review Board (QRB) process and issue guidance to agencies about materials that would be acceptable for QRB consideration and that will serve as an alternative or replacement to the current lengthy essay requirement for QRB submission, which may deter qualified applicants for SES positions or put an additional burden on human resources staff. The guidance shall also advise agencies about ways to streamline their initial application requirements for SES positions, including evaluation of options, such as allowing individuals to apply by only submitting a resume-based application and any additional materials necessary to determine relevant qualifications, consistent with the new QRB submission requirements.

    (iv) Within 120 days of OPM issuing the guidance described in section 3(a)(iii) of this order, the heads of agencies with SES positions shall examine the agency’s career SES hiring process and make changes to the process to make it more efficient, effective, and less burdensome for all participants. Agencies shall simplify the initial application requirements for SES positions consistent with the guidance issued in section 3(a)(iii) of this order, and should only request critically necessary technical qualifications, with the goal of minimizing requirements that may deter qualified applicants from applying….

    should only request critically necessary technical qualifications, with the goal of minimizing requirements that may deter qualified applicants from applying….
    You know like requirement that you not have a criminal record or belong to subversive organizations or be members of the Communist party or Muslim Brotherhood or ISIS or MS13….

  150. rhoda klapp says:

    What one executive order establishes another can remove. There should be no-one in the executive who cannot be fired for cause.

  151. E.M.Smith says:

    @David A.:

    Oh Lord I hope not! That would be about as horrible as possible.

    @Beth & Geof:

    You are most welcome and best of luck as we enter the riding it out stage…

  152. Gail Combs says:

    BREAKING NEWS: Recovered Patient In Japan Gets Reinfected. New York Microbiologists Warns That Coronavirus Remains Dormant In Treated Patients But For A While


    I had heard about this from you guys.

    A re-infection where the antibodies have been reduced below a certain level makes the disease a heck of a lot worse. This follows the Dengue Fever model. DO NOT GET IT TWICE! It may also make a VACCINE DEADLY if the antibodies levels get too low.
    See video in https://www.peakprosperity.com/coronavirus-infections-outside-of-china-are-growing-exponentially/
    Discussion starts at ~17 minutes.

  153. E.M.Smith says:

    @David A.: BBC reporting the same thing. In China and Japan, 14% of “recovered” patients testing positive for virus again.

    This is going to drastically complicate things…

    27 day latency possible. 9 day surface survival possible. So 36 before symptoms (unless the person is asymptomatic…) Then 3 weeks of bring sick. Then a few days to weeks later positive again ? For how long? That’s already in the 2 to 3 month range. For one patient.

    OK, this can’t be contained given those numbers.

    2 “in the wild” cases in California. (Though one flew back to Korea). S.Korea doing excellent tracking and public health, has daily doubling time.

    2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024
    So 10 days to 1 K. 20 days to 1 M. 5 days later, day 25, all of State.

    OK, so by end of March. California ought to be a basket case (even if doubling time is less) and for that matter, m5 days later sll of the USA.

    Well, good news bad news time.

    Good news is that with a 2 month hibernation you ought to be past the worst of it.
    Bad News is it might do an “I’m BAaaack!” For unknown length of time in some folks.

    Figure 3 months at least to get past that point. June 1st.

    Interesting, that. One report on inventory outage / reorder said lots of Chinese suppliers were saying no stock until June… I wonder who knew what when….

  154. E.M.Smith says:


    Yes. ADE – Antibody Dependant Enhancement. 2nd round it destroys immune cells first…

  155. ossqss says:

    I have noticed there is not much talk of viral mutation in the last few weeks. Mutation happens with almost every viral outbreak. Just look at our flu vaccine processes and effectiveness over the years. I wonder if the reinfection element is due to mutation and not a dormancy impact and perhaps driven by treatment via experimentation with a number of antiviral and other drugs. We should keep in mind that there are still lingering questions on the effectiveness of any testing overall since the onset of this whole issue. I suspect the answers will come to light during reanalysis afterward.

  156. E.M.Smith says:


    One of the factors in ADE is a mutated serotype. Changed just enough to not be an exact kill for the immune system, but close enough to still bind to the antibody…. said antibody then binding to an immune cell, infecting it, and reducing the immune cell count.

  157. Gail Combs says:

    Well, it is not like we didn’t suspect this was the case.

  158. Gail Combs says:

    The problem is the Unions and the laws.

    From 2016:
    Here’s Why It’s All But Impossible To Fire A Fed

    What President Trump has done:
    Executive Order on Firing Policies Leaves Federal Employees Contemplating Job Security

    Firing a Bad Federal Employee May Get a Little Easier

    Restricting Federal Unions and Firing Poor Performers

  159. Gail Combs says:

    Seems Daddy Trump, kicked some CDC ass!

  160. Gail Combs says:

    Orange County Declares State of Emergency to Deal with COVID-19

    San Francisco declared a state of emergency — here’s how the coronavirus is affecting the city, from a company’s handshake ban to canceled conferences

    County declares local state of emergency in response to the coronavirus in San Diego



    Feb 24, 2020
    [Monday] Nancy Pelosi visits San Francisco’s Chinatown to encourage people amid fears of coronavirus

  161. Gail Combs says:

    More info from Daughn

    85% of Starbuck’s coffee chains have reopened in China, per Fox biz on February 27th.

    Japan got smart

  162. Gail Combs says:

    Iran is in trouble, this make # four in the government with the virus.

  163. M Simon says:

    Gail Combs says:
    27 February 2020 at 2:57 pm

    How can we get a handle on events like that without test kits?

  164. M Simon says:

    A look at the current situation on monitoring and other stuff.

  165. Gail Combs says:

    Now the Pope….

  166. Gail Combs says:

    “How can we get a handle on events like that without test kits?”

    We can’t that is why I am so angry. Without test kits we are completely blind and have zero idea what to do.

    I get the feeling President Trump got angry at the excuses made by the FDA and CDC and that is why he just put VP Mike Pence in charge. Notice a day later they are shipping out the test kits that piece of garbage, Nancy Messonnier, just said were not ready and weren’t a real priority.

    I am willing to bet someone just got a major chunk taken out of her ass.

    Notice that President Trump acted like a boss. NEVER CRITICIZE IN PUBLIC. Doesn’t mean he didn’t had a few people their heads in private.

  167. Gail Combs says:

    What is REALLY interesting is previously it was reported:
    CDC has run just 426 tests by Feb 24

    Now, THREE DAYS LATER the numbers are 3,625 patients tested by CDC???

    Who was hiding the other 3200 tests?

    …February 24th, 2020, 11:59 AM
    Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.
    Updated February 24, 2020

    CDC is closely monitoring an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus. The outbreak first started in Wuhan, China, but cases have been identified in a growing number of other international locations, including the United States. This page will be updated regularly on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays.

    COVID-19: Confirmed Cases in the United States*†

    Travel-related 12
    Person-to-person spread 2
    Total confirmed cases 14
    Total tested 426

    † Numbers closed out at 4 p.m. the day before reporting.
    ‡ Cases have laboratory confirmation and may or may not have been symptomatic.


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  169. E.M.Smith says:


    Read Here:

    A CT Scan is faster, more accurate and sensitive, and they are all over the place. Just bypass the lab…

    And that case in San Diego is interesting. Looks like the decision not to attend a trade show was a good one… was that David A?

  170. David A says:

    Twas me in Diego. Trade shows have been simi immune from downturns. Booths may have shrunk, hanging signs may be reduced, but if you wished to stay viable as a company, you went to key trade shows.
    Yet this virus may well be almost fatal to them for some time.

    Yes, we have this, “total of 167 passengers arrived at Miramar Feb. 5, and 65 more arrived Feb. 7. All of the passengers are under a 14-day quarantine at the Marine base.”


  171. M Simon says:

    Tonight on the nightly news “no need to panic” was emphasized. And then this bombshell.

    Prep for two weeks no food or medicine.

  172. E.M.Smith says:


    And where was that?

    (FWIW my best guess is 3 months at least 2.)

  173. M Simon says:

    E.M.Smith says:
    28 February 2020 at 3:08 am

    ABC News. (The big time)

  174. p.g.sharrow says:

    I would have to agree. Plan on as much as 3 months, If quarantine is necessary it will be at least 5 weeks you will be on your own, sick or well. The only hope for medical assistance is if this thing is drawn out over a year. Other wise there is just not enough medical resources available. This looks to me to be survive on your own as long as possible just like in the “Good Old Days” and hope the the system is not too overloaded if you really need assistance. I doubt that we can escape infection for very long…pg

  175. David A says:

    Regarding mortality rates, let me explain why the current 1 percent mortality method is, IMV, completely wrong, and share some information on US hospitals.

    This is the method commonly used.
    Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%).

    This ONLY works after all patients are either cured or dead. So, excluding this year, and going by the past 9 year history of either cured or dead, the flu is just above one tenth of one percent fatal. ( One in every thousand flu cases dies). U.S. numbers.

    From the link above, average flu cases per year in the US is about 30 million. Multiply that times one tenth of one percent, or .001 which equals 30,000 dead in an average flu year. Actual average est was about 33,000 dead each year, but 30 k is well within the error bars of the link, as is one tenth of one percent.

    Average flu hospitalization is a bit over 4 million, which, over the 13 week flu season, this is 308,000 hospitalizations per week with an average stay of about 5 days per patient.

    Now, from this link… https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    regarding global death rate of the Coronavirus…

    Infected 84,173

    Deaths: 2,876

    Recovered 36,880

    Active 44,417

    Serious or critical 8,095 (18%)

    So assume that by a magic wand, patient 84,173 is the last patient. We currently have 8,095 serious or critical. We also have about 20,000 of those 84,173 cases that are new in the last two weeks, the vast majority of which have not had time to go critical or fatal.

    Let’s conservatively take a WAG that an additional 18 percent of 15,500 cases go serious or critical. That’s about 2,800 more serious to critical cases. So call it 10,000 serious or critical, and we can expect about 20 percent of those to be fatal. ( Early number , may need an update) So about 2,000 more fatal. 2,000 plus 2,876 is 4,876 likely deaths in 84,173 cases. A 5.8 percent mortality!

    BTW, death to recovered for the Coronavirus, which is exactly what the flu statistics are based on, is 7.8 percent!

    Now this is mostly China’s numbers. They are simply FUBAR. It could be there are many mild cases that were never counted, lowering the mortality. It could also be that there are thousands of deaths never assigned to the Coronavirus, both in hospitals and in homes, and in incubation-quarantine centers, ( group quarantine is not quarantine) and in rest homes for the elderly, that died and never got recorded as cases and or deaths. Link… https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-china-continues-with-fake-reporting-of-71-new-deaths,-508-new-infections-and-as-more-contradictory-cases-emerge-

    If you were in China with flu symptoms, and knew the hospitals were over whelmed, and full of the Coronavirus, and you thought you were, like 80 plus percent of the infected, just fine with only mild flu like symptoms, and or thought your illness may be the regular flu, also more likely at this time, and so figured you had a 95 percent plus chance of making it without medical help, why would you report your symptoms, which would likely result in being thrown into a giant room of thousands of other possibly exposed, row after row of beds in large single room facilities with common restrooms or, if lucky, placed in an overcrowded understaffed hospital. That is an infection trap, worse then the Princess cruise, which had a very high R-naught.

    In Summary it is very likely that China has far more cases, recoveries and dead then their official numbers. Let’s hope they are at least balancing the case load totals; hospitalized to fatal, so that the percentages are helpful to the R.O.W.

    An average U.S. flu year of 30 million cases, and 30,000 deaths, becomes, with a mortality rate of 5.8 percent, 1,740,000 dead with this illness. 58 times as deadly as the flu under the same case load, IF they are equally infectious. Unfortunately they are not.

    Now let’s consider the R- naught of the flu, 1.3, vs the Coronavirus. It is very generous to go with an R- naught of 2.6 for the Caronavirus. Here is one of several studies which show a higher R-naught then the CDC. In this case 3.1. Researchers from Lancaster University

    Click to access 2020.01.23.20018549v2.full.pdf

    Several credible medical institution’s have placed the Coronavirus R-naught up to 6.9 to 7.0.
    ( Link to follow)

    So, going with just the 2.6 R-naught, the U.S. then have 60 million infected and 3,480,000 dead. We also have 18 percent of 60 million needing hospital beds for a week. That is 10,800,000 hospital beds. Divided by a typical flu season that is 839,770 beds needed each week. ( In reality it would be better in the early phase, and much worse at the peak)

    The US only has about 900,000 hospital beds! The U.S. has an overall hospital occupancy of 63 percent. During the flu season ( other illnesses peak along with the flu) I am guessing that this occupancy rate increases by about 22 percent of total beds to 85 percent occupancy, leaving about 135,000 beds available. ( Best case) With an R-naught of 2.6 and a serious to critical hospitalization need of 839,770 beds, the U.S. would be 705,000 beds short each week! This would tremendously overburden our medical facilities. ( Did you see the videos out of Wuhan of medical staff breaking down, streets lined up to get into hospitals, etc…) How many more people, with other serious diseases, would die if this scenario occurred?

    This is why China has destroyed their own economy at a critical time of economic vulnerability. This is why every nation with borders to Iran, when it had only 30 cases, closed those borders. This is why South Korea is stopping public events, putting cities on lock down, closing businesses.

    My perspective is to watch what nations do, not what buricrats say.

    BTW, other nations, seeing the economic collapse of China, are very likely to also greatly minimize the real numbers.

    The above scenario is what is very realistic IF we treat this as a common flu. It could be considerably worse, a higher R-naught for instance, and reports of up to 14 percent of cured still testing positive and re-infections, therefore much greater fatalities.

    However we are not treating this as a common flu. It could mutate to a less virulent form. We could develop an effective vaccine while we take necessary painful steps to slow this down. As individuals we can decide to stock up now on extra food now, to lessen the panic later. Same with water, medicines, pet needs.

    We can self quarantine IF this gains a foothold in the country you live in. We can work together locally and with other nations to lessen the pain that is yet increasing. Let’s hope – pray that the R- naught is lower and the mortality is lower in developed nations of cleaner air and less smoking addicted, and with summer coming a greatly reduced viral load and R-naught.

    Unfortunately in early stages of exponential growth the mortality rate is skewered low because of the mean time to death. ( In this case about 21 days from infection to death.)

  176. E.M.Smith says:

    @2David A:

    Well said. I’d only add that a lot of the population is immune to the flu in any one year. There would be more deaths were that not true.

    1% of 340 Million is 3.4 million, so even if Covid-19 is at that CFR, it is horrid. 5% is hard to think about. CFR varies strongly with medical care. Once hospitals are swamped, it can rise to 10%…

  177. David 6 says:

    Thanks E.M. I was looking for the close to 7 R- naught rate you linked to earlier, yet no luck on my first pass through.

  178. M Simon says:

    E.M.Smith says:
    29 February 2020 at 2:29 pm

    Kill 10% of a military unit and you bring its effectiveness to very near zero. It is called decimation. If it is at 5% that would be a big worry.

    BTW our system is working quite well on this. Our media is looking for Trump mistakes and he is trying hard not to make them. Free speech has its advantages. The current antagonisms seem to be mostly working in our favor.

    And the comments all around are full of “stock up food and medicine” even if articles or statements prefer “nothing to worry about, you can go about your business.”

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